Selig: Yankees will discuss ticket prices
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Apr 23, 2009 
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Bud Selig spoke to a group of sports editors today and revealed that the Yankees and Mets “will be discussing” whether to lower prices for the premium seats at the new ballparks.
The Yankees are charging $500-$2,625 for Legends Suite tickets in 25 sections at the new Yankee Stadium in the first nine rows around the infield, an area that contains 1,895 seats.
Those seats were well less than half full for the team’s first six home games.
lower it to a decent price and they will be gone quickly, its not like people dont care to sit there, its that its so darn expensive!
I didn’t realize the Mets were also having problems…
It’s supply and demand, the law of the marketplace.
I wonder how many seats – premium and non-premium – were sold to brokers and amateur speculators who are now unable to sell them. If they lose money, well, it serves them right. Just my opinion.
Yeah, Rebecca, the Mets have their share of empty seats, also. My friend went to Shea the other day, and saw plenty, he says. It’s just so much juicier for the tabloids to go on about the Yankees. Because we all know the Mets’ owners are poor working people who care about the little man/woman.
Both teams have had a number of empty seats behind the dugouts and home plate.
They should lower it to $100 dollars, if they did those seats would be sold out in about 5 minutes.
The Yankees have sold all the cheap and relatively cheap seats. Only seats available are those real expensive ones.
Trost and Levine are slow poison. They’re killing something in Yankees fans who spend their money at the stadium. I can’t put my finger on it exactly, but they’re exuding a poison that will require a strong, powerful antidote.
Trost and Levine are slow poison. They’re killing something in Yankees fans who spend their money at the stadium. I can’t put my finger on it exactly, but they’re exuding a poison that will require a strong, powerful antidote.
————————————————————–
Antidote= Them getting fired!!
Lonnie and Randie’s legendary fail.
I disagree about Trost and Levine. My take – their businessmen, who are doing what their bosses want – maximizing profits. If the Steinbrenners told them to sell seats for 50 cents, they would do that. They were instructed to make as much money as possible.
Hey, it’s the American way. If the economy was cruising along, those front seats would be filled by execs on expense accounts. But the economy isn’t, and the seats aren’t.
I’m really curious how many of those seats didn’t sell vs. those that are sold to brokers who now can’t sell ‘em. I really think StubHub is killing the average fan here.
“They should lower it to $100 dollars, if they did those seats would be sold out in about 5 minutes”
Better – let me trade in my Terrace level seats (which have a face of $55, but with the license fee they charged ended up costing me $110 per game) at no additional charge and then sell my Terrace level seats at a straight $55 each.
Good for Habs goalie price and good for coach Bob Gainey.
Hab crowd boos the guy, bronx cheers him when he makes a save – guess what – the Bruins were a sweep better than Montreal this year. You blame the goalie, you’re an idiot.
Gainey has some guys and integrity – and tells the crowd, diplomatically, to shove it.
“They were unfair, they were rude, and he reacted.”
Boo your goalie because you’re team isn’t talented enough to compete. Fantastic.
I’m glad they are trying to find a solution.
Seeing those empty seats make me sick to my stomach…
BUT…
Here’s the tricky part…
I’ve been a Yankee fan for about 50+ years. For the past 20…I’ve gone to about 30 games a year. This year I bit the bullet and bought season’s tickets. I have pretty decent seats and pay $100 per game (still expensive for a baseball game).
If the Yankees now change their pricing structure…and someone pays the same as I did and gets much better seats…I’m going to be pissed. And how about those who paid $350…and now the guy next to them has the same seat for half the price.
This is a difficult situation to dig out of…
some guts and integrity.
Makes me boil to think of Wang and Joba being booed. One guy is trying to build innings as a very young pitcher on the rise, the other is clearly not right, if they bothered to get the bile out of their mouths and pay attention.
Fans who boo the uniform – please do not sit near me. You will regret it.
My take on Trost & Levine is that they are very business saavy, but unethical. It’s fine to make your bosses money, but have a shred of integrity.
Not directed at you, Pete, but this is news? Hal Steinbrenner acknowledged the problem a week ago. They’ve been “discussing” lowering the prices for the premium seats.
Hey, Bud! Why don’t you go do something useful. Like, run a league or something.
n an aside, does anyone think Mark Melancon is going to be in the minors for very long? Here are his numbers at Scranton – six games, 10.1 innings pitched, no runs, four hits, three walks, 17 strikeouts. Yikes.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/yankees/
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/.....ed-on-you/
jennifer “We want Swisher”-The sooner Melancon gets here the better!
Can’t wait to see him up here!!
The lack of fan presence in the lower level of the new Stadium could be bad for the team. The old Stadium would get so loud, especially after a big strikeout. That was part of its charms. Having nobody below and not having the seats right on top of the field changes that. Us the fans can’t overwhelm the opposition anymore.
Melancon will probably remain down in Scranton for a few more weeks until after May 15th.
I’d just rather see him get the call and stay in the majors rather than rush him too early and have him ride the Scranton shuttle.
Am I the only one who thinks the Big Papi comments were blown out of proportion? He didn’t really insult Joba. All he did was answer a question he was asked.
YES is showing the Boston Red Sox game on the night that Marte and Nady were traded to the Yankees. Can somebody remind me why that is particularly a classic Red Sock-Yankee game?
Steve Goldman has the right approach to the Melky vs. Gardner debate:
http://pinstripedbible.mlblogs.....dness.html
Melky Cabrera failed as a starter but has hit four home runs as a role player, so the Yankees should make him a starter again. If he doesn’t play well when starting, they can make him a role player again, and if he hits a few more home runs coming off the bench, they can make him a starter again. If he slumps, they can always put him back in the reserve role. Assuming he does well there, he might be ready for another shot at starting, and … and … and …
There are three possibilities right now:
1. The last 26 Cabrera at-bats outweigh the previous 1500 or so, and Cabrera has become a slugging outfielder.
2. Cabrera is having one those transient streaks, like the one he had precisely a year ago.
3. The Yankees have found a job for Cabrera in which he can actually be useful.
There is no reason to rush Cabrera into the lineup given that the upside is mostly nonexistent, while the downside includes damage to Brett Gardner’s career. Not that Gardner needs any extra help with that. He’s played terrific defense and runs the bases well, but the walks aren’t there, and since the power isn’t going to be there, the walks have to be there if he’s going to hit enough to play. Gardner is 15 games in, and needs more time to rediscover his patience. If he can’t get there, perhaps he’s not the answer this year, or not ever. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Cabrera is the answer either. Cabrera could very well be more valuable in 250 at-bats than in 500, and that’s not a missed opportunity for the Yankees, it’s seizing one.
YES is showing the Boston Red Sox game on the night that Marte and Nady were traded to the Yankees. Can somebody remind me why that is particularly a classic Red Sock-Yankee game?
———–
Because it’s the Joba outduels Beckett game (Yanks won 1-0).
Okay, I’m going to say something controversial. I was never big on home field advantage before the bottom of the ninth. The whole “Yankee Stadium mystique” thing really was a myth. In 2001, people say “Oh, the home field advantage kept them in it. They couldn’t have done that away.” The thing is, they DID do it away from home. Game 7, Alfonso Soriano, eighth inning. If Mo gets the save, Yankees are just inbeatable and Soriano is a playoff hero with a walk-off one game and a game-winning homer in the other.
The point is, all ballparks with good teams have lots of fans. I don’t think where they sit in relation to the field will make a difference.
jennifer “We want Swisher” April 23rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/.....ed-on-you/
==================================
Yikes! That’s horrible.
Franco-I agree about Melky.
inbeatable is unbeatable.
this was from cb earlier today concerning wang and i think it’s worth reposting:
“You should know if a pitcher has enough arm strength to compete.
Now I also do believe Wang is a big time gamer and isn’t going to admit injury. So that’s a bit of a conundrum.
Here’s a situation however where we should turn to see how could the team acquire objective evidence regarding arm strength. Medical technology now let’s you do that.
The Red Sox have been leaders in this field from what I understand. They do very extensive strength testing on all of their players throughout the season.
They can tell you right now how strong Dice-K’s shoulder is compared to what it was at this time last year. That’s part of the reason why the put Dice-K on the DL despite what he was saying. He also said he felt fine. The Red Sox looked at the strenght data and Dl’d him because the objective data indicated he was not as strong as he should be.
I’m not sure if the yankees due the same extensive strength testing. Perhaps SJ knows.
If the team does not have that kind of state of the art physilogy program in place then they are being myopic and stuck in the past. They should be blamed for that.
And I would vocally blame them for that but I don’t have the evidence to say that they aren’t doing that kind of strength testing.
My impression is that they aren’t but I don’t know that for certain so I’m not going to make a big deal of it.
But that is something I am very concerned with right now and would be a good example of a serious shortfall in organizational operations were it to be true. ”
so the question is whether the yankees have the strength testing equipment the red sox have . with the new yankee stadium you’d thing they would. maybe peter a. can find out.
Trost and Levine are killing the franchise so much that the value of the team went up 15% in the last year.
Bud wants those seats sold. Every franchise is having trouble selling seats and all the empties at Yankee Stadium is less revenue sharing money coming in.
I really don’t think we’ll know how Wang will do until he gets in a big league game. Anything before that is an inexact science.
“Can somebody remind me why that is particularly a classic Red Sock-Yankee game”
Because Joba was awesome that night. And it was a well pitched game on both sides.
Jim Rome was out of line the way he talked about the Yankees (specifically the stadium) and Levine today.
Guiseppe Franco,
I’ve been convinced by the people here that Melky is indeed a better ball player than Gardner.
That being said, I still want Gardner to play on a regular basis. Who cares where, all hands on deck.
I like the scrappy guy, who’s been fighting his way all the way since walking on in college.
Melky may be better, but not significantly better. So I don’t get my garments all twisted up in a bunch about it.
Go Brett. Go Melky. Go Yankees.
It would be nice to have loud crowds behind us, but it’s not going to affect the outcome of games. I just don’t believe baseball teams get intimidated by crowds to the extent they can’t perform. The Yankees will win or lose regardless of the passion or lack thereof from the crowd.
m-You been talking to Bodhisihtva (hope I spelled it right)?
Betsy-I completely agree.
Can anyone fill me in on what BABIP and FIP represent? I went onto the YES message boards and someone made a post about how AJ has been very lucky in his 3 starts thus far (using the following stats):
.206 BABIP
FIP ERA of 5.06.
I’m an old-fashioned kind of girl – I just don’t know much about these new types of stats. All I know is that when I have seen AJ pitch, he’s been great (completely dominant against Tampa and a real battler against the O’s and Cleveland)…….especially in the sense that he (a) stopped losing streaks and (b) gave us innings. I never once thought that he was lucky – well, I guess he had to be a little lucky against Cleveland, but that was a day that he didn’t have much of anything and he still gave us 6 plus innings. Point is, I don’t see AJ’s results being the matter of luck, just skill and determination. I don’t like the idea of reducing everything to numbers to the extent that we can’t even judge anything by what we see with our own two eyes.
Thoughts? Thanks!
The price of the franchise may have gone up 15% last year, but I’ll bet its dropping real quick. The Yankee Stock is dropping as we speak. Like I said, I guess being a multi-millionaire just doesn’t cut it anymore!
Betsy-I’m sorry to say I don’t know the acronyms, but I will say that if everybody could pitch like A.J. did regardless of those ridiculous stats we’d be a better team for it.
BABIP is batting average on balls in play.
Sad Yankee Fan-The Yankees are the last team to worry about.
Actually, I looked it up – I think BABIP is Batting Average of Balls in Play. As to a low BABIP, doesn’t that speak to the quality of pitches AJ is making? I mean, the hitters must not be getting very good wood on the ball – isn’t that skill instead of luck?
Thanks, Randy!
Betsy, I disagree because a player that’s relaxed at your venue will perform at a higher level. I remember that night against Boston when the crowd rattled even a cool customer like Pedro Martinez in game 7 against Boston.
Sad Yankee Fan-We say it’s the crowd in hindsight, but who knows?
FIP (Link)
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m...../glossary/
Teixeiramvp (JobaCyYoung)
What did he say?
Sad Yankee
Many, many, many, many multi-millions. The franchise was valued at $1.5 Billion.
So six innings of no hit ball…?
i like BABIP, but i don’t know about that FIP stat .
Guiseppe Franco,
I’ve been convinced by the people here that Melky is indeed a better ball player than Gardner.
That being said, I still want Gardner to play on a regular basis. Who cares where, all hands on deck.
I like the scrappy guy, who’s been fighting his way all the way since walking on in college.
————————
I agree for the most part.
My simple argument all along has been that we know what Melky is and what he isn’t based on 1500 career ABs.
But none of us can say definitively that Melky is a better ballplayer than Gardner because we haven’t seen Gardner play enough to make that determination.
I do recall Dustin Pedroia hitting .158 / .289 / .158 in April during his rookie season and he
Now by no means am I comparing Garnder’s talent to Pedroia. It’s not even close.
But I am saying that we don’t know what Gardner can do in this league yet and he deserves the chance to turn it around since he won the job fair and square in ST.
We already know what Melky has to offer and it doesn’t make any sense to take Gardner’s job away from him at this point.
I’m with you, I like the scrappy underachiever that busts his ass and gives 100% every time he gets on the field. Add the speed dimension and he’s a great guy to root for on this team.
randy-
Thanks for posting what CB said, fascinating stuff.
Betsy – trust your eyes
GreenBeret7
April 23rd, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Adams’s grounds out to third.
Baisley singles to center.
Almonte safe on error.
Mesa strikes out.
Grote pops out to center.
By the way, Augusta is a Giants farm team and the kid pitching, Ari Ronick is the nephew of Phil Jackson. Yeah, that Phil Jackson.
Phelps still pitching.
Groundout 1st to pitcher
infield single to second.
Stolen base
fielder’s choice 3rd to 2nd.
Stolen base
ground out to 2nd.
Phelps with close to 90 pitches. scoring correction…one run is unearned.
Phelps’ line is:
4.0 innings, 8 hits, 4 runs, 3 earned runs, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts, 1 homer allowed, 2 WP
max-He started insulting the Yankees franchise and talked about how they should be ashamed of the stadium and how it’s ridiculous about the balls being hit out and that despite the Yankees’ record their home field advantage has disappeared because of all the empty seats and that it’s ridiculous that the Yanks let that happen.
Hey Jim, use logic-we wonthe homestand, you knucklehead.
Vasquez, the Trenton 1B from Mexico, hit a monster shot HR and single /4RBI in his first game so far.
GB
Wilkin of the Rose is back, pitched 4 scoreless innings today as a starter.
Is it sad that there are more people milling around the stadium than in the seats? Yeah.
But the Yankees don’t care if there’s 55,000 or 43,000 they’re going to play to win the game. Especially after missing the playoffs last year. They know they have to fight for every game. I give Jeter a lot of credit. He looks like he’s on a mission to do everything he can to get them back to the post-season.
These guys have probably been competitors since playing just in front of a group of parents in little league. Whether the stadium is full or half-empty, they’ve got a job to do.
How long do you give Gardner? ASB?
m-Agreed.
Regarding the Mets seats compared to the Yankees:
The Mets play Florida this Wednesday at 1:00. They have cheap seats available all the way down to $11. Plenty of seats. Tons. Everywhere. Cheap.
The next Yankee mid-week day game is Thursday June 18, 1:00 against Washington. I searched online for tickets, and I couldn’t find any cheap ones at all. None. Zero. The “best available” claim to be $900 seats.
WTF??? How does a Thursday day game against the worst team in MLB have no seats available under $900?
Based on this research, it seems easy to see a Mets game for cheap, but a second mortgage is needed for even the least desirable Yankee game. (I know the Mets suck, I’m just saying.)
Uncle Ellsworth-I give him a year unless he’s totally bombing (below 250 avg., say).
Obviously off topic, but it makes you realize whats important!
http://www.firstgiving.com/keys100
It’s a really good cause. My friend, a Recon Marine, was in Iraq and nearly had his leg blown off by an IED. Medical personnel didn’t know if he would keep his leg, or walk on it again. Through hard work, perseverance, and dedicaion, nearly 3 years after the day he was hit, he will be running a 100 mile race in Florida to raise money for the Special Operations Warrior foundation, which helps families of fallen and injured Special Forces Marines. Any donation is GREAT, and if you cannot donate, please send this link to anyone you know!Thanks!!
JohnBlacksox (24 + 1)-one hundred bucks for decent Yanks seats (down left field line).
Anway, haven’t you heard? OF seats have impaired sight lines in Citi Field.
Thanks, Randy! I guess FIP does have its uses, but it doesn’t take into account the human factor. In this case, AJ had a game where he gave up two HRs and walked a lot. Just on stats, you’d think – wow, rough game. The problem is, you can’t see from the stats that AJ made the pitches when he needed to.
Uncle Ellsworth, my eyes are terrible, but I’ll trust them any day of the week. I have no problem using stats – I don’t want to sound like a baseball troglodyte- but I think they have their place and are not the be all and end all.
Hmmm-Grat cause for the true heroes.
Grat is great.
Lyons strikes out to lead off the 5th
Weems hits hard single to left.
Angelini bangs a double off of the left field fence.
Brewer singles to score two runs. 4-2 Augusta.
Adams strikes out.
Brewer hustles from 1st to 3rd on a wild pitch.
Baisley walks
Honest Abe Almonte safe on error to 3rd baseman, Brewer scores. 4-3 Augusta…pitching change.
Mesa walks, bases loaded.
Grote bloops a single to center, scoring two runs. Mesa thrown out at home trying to score. Hard slide into the catcher must have annoyed Augusta. Everyone strolled in to discuss dinner plans.
5-4 Charleston
Jim Rome ( Romie ) Was a late night radio sports guy here in LA who worked for radio station based in San Diego…I played in a Charity golf tourney and he was in my foursome…This was in 1992, and I was riding his ass about how he used to refer to the Knicks as the NY Bricks..Then can Pat Riley and he had to eat crow the next year…He’s about five two and really is not a bad guy…He made his name with the Jime Everet interview when he kept calling him Chris Everet because of his fear of getting hit…I haven’t seen Romie since 2003 as he no longer plays in the Kids Hospital golf tourney….He’s a star now..
Bo knows
April 23rd, 2009 at 8:41 pm
GB
Wilkin of the Rose is back, pitched 4 scoreless innings today as a starter.
————————————————————
Thanks, Bo. I saw that. For less than two years of pitching experience, this young guy has been great.
Randy Levine needs an intervention.
Johnblacksox, you have to go on stubhub, most games have 6 or 7 thousand tickets available. As the date gets closer the seats get cheaper. You can get main level or terrace level tickets in fair territory for around 50, you can get them for cheaper in the grandstand or the bleachers.
These are all the people that bought season tickets and are trying to make money. The tickets arent selling as fast as they thought and the price is coming down. Obviously the premium games are a different story.
I used to really like Jim Rome, but isn’t he about three years past his prime, I can’t even find a syndication of his show in New England anymore. One of his best lines was “I take so much vacation because I get so much vacation time.”
As for the players…I’m sure that they play each game to win…they are professional athletes.
Jordan used to play monopoly in college as if it was the seventh game of the NBA finals, they just have that competitive drive that others don’t…does anyone think Jorge plays any different if there is 35,000 or 50,000 in the Stadium?
I think the empty seat thing is more of an issue for the Yankees as a brand…for a team that sells tradition (Pride, Power, Pinstripes).
IMO, this more of an issue for them in that sense than anything else…it gives all the Yankee haters and people who think that the Yankees are what’s wrong with the times something to through in their face and make the butt of their jokes.
Pat M-I’m sure he’s not a bad guy, but he was out of line about the Yanks today.
New pitcher. Brayboy pitching.
Leadoff single
grounder to Adams, but went to Angelini covering 2nd. They didn’t get either runner.
Lyons turns a 5-1 double play.
WP, runner to 3rd.
Triple over Almonte’s head. run scores. Tied game up at 5-5.
Ouch…again. Angelini has another throwing error…run scores…6-5 Augusta. 9 errors for Angelini, already.
Another error on booted grounder by Angelini, 2nd error tonight.
ground out to Baisley.
How did Rome undress Levine ???
The new stadium will never be like the old one as far as fan noise and looking packed all the time. At the new stadium you will have people in the Hard Rock, guys in the food court, guys standing up at the rail talking to friends they met at the game…. Maybe in the 6th game of the ALCS everyone will be at their seat but not night in and night out. In the old stadium you could only see the game from your seat… now you can see it everwhere….
Pat M-Levine said he was tired of talking about selling seats, and Rome just ripped him, the stadium, and the franchise in general apart for no good reason.
Yank23-Whatever. As long as the team wins.
Another leadoff single to center by Lyons
Weems strikes out
Angelini has some kiss and make up do do.
Angelini hits high bouncer to short safe on error
Brewer batting
Pathetic base running. Lyons gets picked off, tagged out at third. angelini tries to take 2nd base and gets thrown out.
GreenBeret7-Wow, this game seems to have lots of errors.
I predict the Yankees lose tomorrow night, then win the next two. You read it here first.
Brett Gardner = Jason Tyner, just younger.
And we saw what Tyner is worth today.
Jeff NJ-Interesting. So is Joba lit up or outdueled?
FIP sounds like a formula made up to back up someone’s theory. Too convoluted, if you ask me. And contrived.
Doreen-Agreed.
Stats are overused.
Let’s just watch and see with our own eyes how the players do.
The trend the last several years is the Yanks look bad against the Red Sox early in the year (like April and May) and they turn it around and kick their butts as the season progresses and the weather warms up.
No idea why that’s the case, but the Yanks have been notoriously slow starters the last several years so that’s probably a big part of it.
outdueled, Joba is not at his best yet this year. I think it will be a frustrating game that could be won with a key hit here or there, but ultimately lost. There will be plenty of trolls on the board claiming that the Yankees season is over and that they don’t compare to Boston. Then we’ll take the next two and shut them up for a few days.
Brayboy still pitching in bottom of the 6th inning.
Alright. Grounder to Angelini. He got the out. The doctors are rushing to the Riverdogs’ dugout. They’re using a defibulator to restart Torre Tyson’s heart.
Strikeout.
Double off the fence over Mesa’s head in right.
Ground out.
For those that constantly complain about Michael Kay’s, John Sterling’s and Suzyn Walden’s announcing abilities…I suggest that you spend a few games listening to minor league announcers.
Jeff NJ-I’d rather see Joba have a decent start then get lit up either way.
GB7
Jorge Vasquez hit a bomb after being called up to Trenton tonight. Also a 2 run single
MLB player traded for nothing?
I believe it. Pete tried to trade me to “It is High…” For nothing but they refused.
Here’s the thing. You go to the Trenton Thunder games, and there’s tv monitors at the concession stands. So, I can understand that the Yankees, the major league team, would want to make sure that their fans can follow the game even if they need to be away from their seats.
The downside is, now we learn that people aren’t in a hurry to get back to their seats because theyr’e not missing anything.
I don’t fault the Yankees there – they were simply trying to enhance the experience for fans.
And a lot (all?) of the new ballparks have the monitors, as well. And people visit other parks and rave about all the amenities they now complain that the Yankees have.
Technology is a two-edged sword, I guess.
I do hate Sterling and Waldman’s announcing abilities.
In Boston, instead of lowering ticket prices, they’re increasing their advertising. The *gasp* sellout streak might be at risk!
http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....l_out_ads/
Serves them right.
“Teixeiramvp (JobaCyYoung)
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Pat M-Levine said he was tired of talking about selling seats, and Rome just ripped him, the stadium, and the franchise in general apart for no good reason.
”
Levine actually was on the Rome Show? And what did Rome specifically rip about the stadium/franchise? The same old ‘launching pad’ stuff or the prices?
Brewer bombs one well over the left field fence. 6-6 tie in the 7th.
Well then he ( Jim Rome ) has turned into a puke as several people that I know have suggested…..I think he sees himself as the modern day Howard Cosell…..Well sucess has spoiled Jim Rome…..Although I have no objection to him laying out Levine somewhat, but within reason…
tampayank-No, he wasn’t on the Rome show. They shoed a pic of him and Rome read the quote. And he ripped the bandbox stuff, the empty seats, claimed the Yankees have no home field advantage…the works.
Uncle Ellsworth
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:23 pm
GB7
Jorge Vasquez hit a bomb after being called up to Trenton tonight. Also a 2 run single
————————————————————
Yeah, Ellie I heard about the homer. I guess I’ll start the nonsense now.
I want Vazquez in NY right NOW. Get rid of Cabrera and Matsui. They’re washed up dogmeat.
Ahhhh…now I feel like one of the gang.
shoed=showed.
Here’s some info on Jorge Vazquez:
http://www.baseball-reference......ge_Vazquez
GreenBeret7-Matsui’s starting to heat up now, though.
Here’s a little bio on Jorge Vazquez:
http://www.baseball-reference......ge_Vazquez
Re: stats, the willful ignorance of some of those in the comments is rather jarring. If you don’t understand the statistics (which you folks clearly do not), don’t criticize their usage. If you want to spend the time to learn the theory behind them and then hold an honest discourse on their validity, I’m all for it. All I’m seeing here is a bunch of people who are too lazy to actually engage the incredible academic work that’s gone into twenty-first century statistical analysis. How could you possibly justify discounting something that you couldn’t even explain?
GreenBeret7-And I know you were joking, I just wanetd to point out I’m optimistic about Matsui.
Test, 1.2.3.
bryan-Because these stats are getting ridiculous. I saw A.J. pitch. He wasn’t lucky, he was good.
Brewer homers
Adams singles
Baisley strikes out
Almonte out on try for bunt single, goes as a sac bunt.
Brief arguement because, apparently it pulled the 1sr baseman off the bag,
Mesa bounces out to third.
bryan-For example, the stats don’t show that first game vs. the Orioles: Bases loaded, three two count, and he strikes out the batter. THAT is not luck.
GB7
I didn’t mean to inflame you.
BTW how do you watch the Rdogs? Or is it radio?
Teixeira —
Can you please explain the reasoning or method behind these supposed “ridiculous” statistics? And if not, how are you so sure that they are “ridiculous?”
In the game against Cleveland, AJ Burnett struck out 2 batters and walked 7. His ERA for the game was around 4. Let me ask you this: Do you think that it is possible to maintain that K/BB ratio over a full season and keep an ERA around 4? Please take a moment to think about my question.
Betsy pulled a “Puff”
Almonte gets thrown out of the game.
Apparently, the first base umpire saw no humor in Honest Abe’s bringing a seeing eye dog, cane and tin cup out and handing them to the ump.
Ground ball to Angelini.
You guessed it. Another high throw, pulling Baisley of the bag, but, Baisley tags the runner.
pop-up to infield.
popn up to infield
bryan -
That’s the point – if you need to work too hard to understand the stat, then it isn’t meant for the masses, is it?
For instance what do the particular multipliers mean? Why 2 times strikeouts? Why should I have to research the stat?
ERA – very easy to understand.
Even some of the newer ones, OBP, not too difficult with a short explanation.
But that formula for FIP is laughable.
And I’m not lazy. I have asked or researched myself to try and to understand many of the more recent stats and have understood them. The FIP stat turns me off right off the bat!
So, valid or not – it’s contrived and convoluted and, as they would say on Amerian Idol – indulgent!
I used to think MONAPP was a useless stat, but I admit I’m coming around lately.
Uncle Ellsworth
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:35 pm
GB7
I didn’t mean to inflame you.
BTW how do you watch the Rdogs? Or is it radio?
————————————————————
You can’t inflame me, Ellie. I wear asbestos shorts.
I listen to the away games on the radio and whatever home games I can’t attend. I haven’t as yet tried the Dutch Reagan Method.
Three trains of thought on the ticket prices.
1) The basic rule of economics: If you have to ask the price, you can’t afford it.
2) With only 6 games played, refunds can still be given and lower seats having price changes/adjustments made before the team returns home from Detroit.
3) Too much negative publicity will result in a bad image for the organization. Until the economy takes an upswing, some profit is better than none.
“Pete tried to trade me to “It is High…” For nothing but they refused. ”
nick in sf-
i tried to trade you for a fan to be named later, but i couldn’t get any takers though there were some negotiations where some old livan cards were offered but they were pulled back when i overplayed my hand and tried to get some younger and cheaper ones thrown in.
bryan-All right, consider this: Do the stats account for a bases loaded SO? That play was huge. The stats don’t tell that.
I say it’s ridiculous because nowadays there are stats for everything. I saw the game. He gave up two runs. He got all the big outs. A.J. did fine. He was NOT lucky. I don’t care what the stats say, however “accurate” they are.
And yes I do understand the stats. A, that’s besides the point, and B, thse stats seem, like I believe Doreen said, to be contrived from people who came up with a theory and wanted to prove it. For example, BABIP says A.J. is lucky. Yet doesn’t it mean that he’s not letting players get good wood on the ball? This means that sinkerballers will always have high BABIPs.
Doreen–
I have to be honest: if we’re going to be borrowing from the lexicon of American Idol, I’m not sure how far we’ll get with this conversation.
However, you seem to want to conflate two distinct points:
1) Sabermetric analysis is difficult to understand.
2) Sabermetric analysis is not valid
Clearly, (2) does not follow from (1). In fact, if we were to review the history of mathematical research, (1) would likely imply that (2) is NOT true.
More simply, no one is arguing that these statistics are easily digested (although I don’t think they are so difficult, that’s better saved for another conversation). However, they have opened up an entire world of baseball understanding that has allowed both amateur analysts and front offices alike to more accurately evaluate the performance of baseball players. I have no idea why you would argue against the use of such a tool (or perhaps you’re not).
ERA is much easier to understand than is FIP, BABIP, VORP, etc. It’s also much less useful in accurately identifying a player’s actual value.
How long is the ride to Ctown?
did Dutch “make up” play by play using a ticker tape?
Doreen-I agree with everything you said.
Teixeira–
I’m very eager to continue this discussion, but you didn’t answer either of my questions. If you’re not going to respond to what I’m saying, how can we possibly expect to better understand one another?
bryan-ERA is extremely useful. I want to put in the pitcher who’s allowing the leats runs per game, I don’t care how.
Grote grounds out
Lyon doubles off of the left field fence.
Weems lines out to left
Angelini flies out to left.
bottom of the 8th coming up. Casey Erickson coming in to pitch. 6-6 tie
Teixeira–
I whole-heartedly agree. Any team should strive to play pitchers who allow the fewest runs.
What I’m trying to explain to you is that ERA is not the most predictive statistic of that ability. I know this seems counter-intuitive, but it is mathematically irrefutable truth.
bryan-Yes I did. I said I did understand the statistics I decide to learn, which is whatever anybody happens to ask me about.
bryan-Yeah, it seems like if a pitcher is allowing the leats runs, the other stats are irrelevant.
Teixeira–
I would be greatly appreciative if you were to respond to this question:
“In the game against Cleveland, AJ Burnett struck out 2 batters and walked 7. His ERA for the game was around 4. Let me ask you this: Do you think that it is possible to maintain that K/BB ratio over a full season and keep an ERA around 4? Please take a moment to think about my question.”
Wow, twice I messed up. Leats is least.
Uncle Ellsworth
April 23rd, 2009 at 9:44 pm
How long is the ride to Ctown?
did Dutch “make up” play by play using a ticker tape?
————————————————————
Drive time is about 2.5 hours…125 miles, but, by boat up the coast, its about 30 miles.
Yeah…Dutch had a pencil that he’d hit against the mic, until he broke the budget and bought a toy bat and ball. Canned crowd and vender noise.
Bryan -
You’re getting defensive.
I said I have taken the time to research and find out about (and appreciate) many of the more recent stats. Yes, I still get a little dys-alphabetic when looking at all the acronyms, but I understand and appreciate the validity, importance, attraction and usefulness of sabermetrics, though I personally do not require them for me to enjoy baseball.
But a stat like FIP, with a formula that makes you blink your eyes several times and which makes my first thought be – where did they come up with those specific multipliers – well, I question the usefulness of such a stat for public consumption. If it has to be worked out, explained, almost justified, what good is it as a statistic? If you can’t look at the formula and almost intuitively understand how it was derived then the audience for that statistic is limited.
I’m not ignorant and I don’t disregard the value of sabermetrics.
bryan-Maybe not, but if he keeps striking out hitters when it matters he could keep up an ERA that low.
My point is that stats don’t tell the whole story. A.J. did what he had to.
“In the game against Cleveland, AJ Burnett struck out 2 batters and walked 7. His ERA for the game was around 4. Let me ask you this: Do you think that it is possible to maintain that K/BB ratio over a full season and keep an ERA around 4? Please take a moment to think about my question”
It would also depend on how many hits he gave up also no? Point in case Dice K who walks a ton of batters but rarely gives up hits when they’re on base.
raymagnetic-True.
Teixeira–
Please tell me which pitcher you’d rather have, based on the sample provided. Note that I’m NOT asking which pitcher’s performance was more useful in this inning. I’m asking which pitcher you want for the rest of the game.
Pitcher A’s 1st inning
Infield single
Strikeout
Weakly hit pop up falls in, between 3rd and LF. Runners on 1st and 3rd.
Groundout to 2nd, defense fails to turn a double play. Run scores.
Strikeout
Strikeout
Pitcher B’s 1st inning
Walk
Walk
Line out to deep center
Walk
Line out to right, runner thrown out at home having tagged from 3rd
So again, which pitcher do you want for the rest of the game?
Ellie, When there’s a solid base hit, I’ll type “THWACK”. On a nubber, bloop or infield roller “I’ll make a pumpkin on the sidewalk sound “SPLAT”. If it’s a homer, “BOOM”.
** And I mean what good is it as a statistic for me? The general public? I believe that it would be a very valuable statistic for the business of baseball. But for the general public, it’s not.
With the Yankees leading the league in average attendance (according to baseball-reference.com), I think it needs to be asked whether the real problem is people going to the game or is it actually a problem of pitting not sitting in their seats to watch the game. With all the amenities, private restaurants, CF sports bars, ect., maybe, as some have already pointed out, fans are getting enough satisfaction watching the game from places other than the seats they purchased?
I know (and agree) that its a problem if some of the best seats are unsold for these games because of price. However, with an average paid attendance of 44,500 thus far, I’m not sure if thats the biggest problem. Considering that 3 out of 6 games have been weekday games,(with job security the way it is in New York, its hard to justify taking a day off right now to go to a Yankees game), 1 of which was a miserable cold/rainy April day, the Yankees current average isn’t THAT bad (over half of the MLB averages less than 30,000).
Starting at a 44,500 avg. this early in the season is OK (especially when we have yet to have a Boston series at home yet) considering attendance usually only goes up when the whether gets warmer and people have summer vacation.
I think the biggest “problem” is people aren’t watching the game from their seats. There’s so much to look at and see in the stadium, and with flat screen TVs anywhere and everywhere, you won’t miss anything walking around and checking all the place offers. You won’t miss anything checking out different vantage points throughout the game. You certainly were better off NOT sitting in your seat after the 2nd inning Saturday of the 22-4 game.
So, I ask, is this a case of the new Stadium being a novelty which will eventually wear off and people will go back to primarily focusing on baseball? Or does the Stadium offer so much in terms of alternatives that maybe watching baseball from your seat will never be as important as it should be?
Teixeira–
Let’s be clear. No pitcher in the history of modern baseball has maintained a K/BB ratio of 2/7 and an ERA of 4 or under a full season. Not one. Ever.
Is your contention that AJ Burnett is the first pitcher in the history of baseball who’s good enough to overcome such odds?
bryan -
I want the guy who doesn’t walk the ballpark. And I get that that means a pitcher who is good independent of the fielders behind him. But I didn’t need the stat to tell me that.
THWACK
SPLAT
BOOM
Got it.
bryan-Interesting. But that’s not my point (of course pitcher A). I understand hte importance of stats, I just don’t think they tell the whole story. If pitcher A allows less runs over the same innings, then good job by pitcher A and bad by pitcher B. Stats don’t tell that.
check out the blog!
Doreen–
I’ve got to be honest: most good science in the history of western civilization was neither intuitive nor easy. If you want to argue that it’s not for the public, so be it. However, I would point out that even TV networks are beginning to recognize that OBP is far more important than AVG, and are thus including it with player intros. There’s progress being made on the awareness front.
Again, if you’re not making the argument that these statistics are invalid, we’re not really disagreeing on anything.
bryan-No, I’m saying in theory if he did I wouldn’t care.
bryan-AVg. drives in runs (with hits), that’s important.
What’s better than both is OPS.
GB do you get to see the big club much?
Teixeira–
But of course you would want Pitcher B for the duration of a season. Otherwise, you’re suggesting that you’d rather take a 10% bet long-term as opposed to an 80% bet just because the 10% bet hit one time.
Doreen–
I’m trying to introduce a simple example of how luck can affect the outcome. Results-oriented thinking is good in retrospect in terms of writing the story, but in terms of predicting the future, it’s not helpful at all.
Why are stat-heads so argumentative….
Teixeira–
You’re missing my point. If you acknowledge that Burnett’s ratios (2/7 + 4.00) are mathematically UNSUSTAINABLE, then how could you possibly disagree with the conclusion that his result against Cleveland wasn’t lucky? You’re subscribing to two contradictory claims.
bryan-Perhaps, but if it consistently plays out that way, I’d change my mind.
walk
Single
bunt to third for a single and throwing error. run scores
They wanted to give the error to Angelini, I guess out of habit, but, they gave the error to Lyons.
Sac fly to left, run scores, 1 out, 8-6 Augusta
stolen base
Strikeout
ground out. 3 outs
bryan-Because I saw the start and I saw Burnett get the outs he needed.
Boom – Thwack = Splat X (OBP/Avg)C*RISP
Teixeira–
I fully agree that OPS is better than either OBP or AVG alone. Weighed OPS (OBP X 3 + SLG X 1) is better than them all.
On this day without Yankee baseball
Early in the season still..
Lets give a big shout out to Andy Pettite…
With an era of 2.5?… second only to Mo.
This being said, if you hit 300 whatever the other stats that’s not bad.
Marty Brodeur with over 40 saves, NJ wins one nothing.
Forget Lundqvist, Brodeur is insane.
Teixeira–
I walk into a room with two roulette tables. Each table is numbered 1-100.
At Table 1, numbers 1-5 win and numbers 6-100 lose.
At Table 2, numbers 1-70 win and numbers 71-100 lose.
At each table, I can bet $1 to win $1 or lose $1 (depending on the number that comes up).
I choose Table 1 and the ball lands on 4. I win $1.
Did I make a good decision?
bryan-No, but if table one consistently wins, who are we to argue?
Off topic again, but this has been a great series with NJ and Carolina.
If no one is willing to play straight man then I’m taking my baseball and going home.
TD what’s Andy’s BABIP and FIP?
Tom–
I really respect Teixeira for having this conversation with me. I think everyone comes away smarter from an engaged discourse. Why do you find that problematic?
Anyway, this roulette table thing is different. It doesn’t account for the human element, like clutch SO’s, for example.
Uncle Ellsworth (Vasquez in Right- Right now!)
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:02 pm
GB do you get to see the big club much?
————————————————————
Maybe once or twice a year, until last year. I went to a couple of ST games this year when I went to Tampa for treatment. I’ll usually score some tickets whenever NYY plays in Atlanta.
THWACK…Brewer with a hard double into the left field corner to lead off the 9th.
Teixeira–
You’re right. If one table consistently wins, then someone is cheating or the ball is weighted, etc., and we’re all going to get rich.
I’m happy you said “no.” The basic premise behind some of these more advanced statistics is that we want to more accurately identify “Table 1″ players (who might win on occasion but are making unsustainable wagers) from “Table 2″ players (who can lose sometimes but will most certainly prove profitable over the long term).
I just want to say no hard feelings with anybody here. I’m just defending my opinions, nothing more.
Ok Nick I’ll bite what does MONAPP mean?
bryan-I see. Gotta go now.
Fascinating discussion.
Teixeira–
Grant me the following premise. I know that you don’t agree with it, but accept it for the purpose of a hypothetical argument:
AJ Burnett cannot control which batters he strikes out. All we know is that he will strike out 25% of the batters he faces over the long term. The actual 25% of batters that strike out against him are entirely random.
Now let me ask you this question: does this premise negate the possibility of the “clutch” strikeout that you witnessed? Is it possible that BOTH his strikeouts are entirely random AND he struck out a hitter with the bases loaded and 2 out?
Adams grounds out to third.
THWACK…Baisley hustles a double, scoring the run. 8-7 Augusta. one out.
Teixeira–
It’s all good. Thanks for talking with me.
“More simply, no one is arguing that these statistics are easily digested (although I don’t think they are so difficult, that’s better saved for another conversation). However, they have opened up an entire world of baseball understanding that has allowed both amateur analysts and front offices alike to more accurately evaluate the performance of baseball players. I have no idea why you would argue against the use of such a tool (or perhaps you’re not).”
i would argue against overly complex tools because sometimes the complexity is just a smokescreen for something that really doesn’t make sense.
an example of this is in the ” The Formula That Killed Wall Street”.
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/i.....3/wp_quant
on the other hand i see that wall street types have turned around the tampa bay rays.
i think the value of sabermetrics lies in how much baseball you already know. it is one entry way into the game if you have no experience in the game. for me it more confirms what i already know so i don’t feel the need to spend hours and hours figuring out that outs are valuable and walks are good.
i do think statistical analysis is a good tool, but it’s just a tool. i wouldn’t put the statistical analysis people in charge. i’d hire them the way you do a lawyer.
i’m more interested in technology like pitch f/x than in sabermetrics because it’s objective data. a lot of sabermetric stuff is opinion disguised as scientific fact. the fielding bible is an example of that. it’s based on a lot of subjective data that is then made to look better as it’s cleaned up with nice looking numbers.
hey,isn’t that what they did with all those bad mortgages when they turned them into triple a securities. it started out crap and was made to look good. so you see, i think it’s good to be skeptical of some overly complex formulas.
plus baseball is a game that’s played outdoors in the sunlight and on grass and in the spring air. i think it’s more fun to feel and play the game than be on a computer and analyze it ( though that’s fine sometimes too).
the beauty of the game is there are a lot of entry ways to it. on second thought, i think any way in is a good one.
Go Dogs Go!
I’d miss you so I’ll play. What is MONAPP?
Thank you, Uncle Ellsworth. MONAPP is Mentions Of Neil Allen Per Post. It’s a LoHud-specific stat.
Sorry, wasn’t worth the wait. I hope randy is still reading, at least.
bryan -
I am arguing only specifically the FIP statistic. And not it’s usefulness per se, but it’s usefulness to the general public. OBP is gaining popularity because it is easily understood. Could you seriously imagine any of the talking heads in baseball being fluent in the formula for FIP? They may be able to tell you the acronym, but they won’t be able to easily explain the method by which it is reached. That is my argument.
For the average fan, the statistics that become part of the way the game is enjoyed and discussed are the ones that are easily digested.
I don’t know where you draw the line between luck and skill, or, perhaps, the ability of some athletes to do better in high pressure situations. And I guess I don’t understand how you can quantify luck.
Of course the math that goes into the problem solving that has gone on in civilization is well beyond my comprehension. I don’t need to understand the numbers to appreciate the outcomes. I’ll never understand the physics that go into flying an airplane, but I”m happy it works!
Dunn and De La Rosa, two lefties that bring it in the mid nineties. The first at Trenton, the second at Tampa. Both probably destined to be relievers. It’s been a long time since we had flame throwing lefties.
Big Game Tomorrow
Ray Kruml strikes out. 2 outs.
Mesa batting. Strikes out….again…..on a 2-2 pitch that hits him. Game over. 8-7 Augusta.
Randy–
Great stuff. First, I would say that I don’t look at baseball as Neo would the Matrix, all in code and such. Irrespective of how effective our statistical tools become, it’s that statistical noise — the Jeter flip, the ninth inning home runs against BY Kim in 2001 — that creates the poetry. Actually, I think an advanced mathematical understanding AUGMENTS the beauty of short-term random noise. It’s uncontrollable, unpredictable, and yes — it will ultimately subside in the face of the irrefutable long-term, but it’s f*cking brilliant. Those are the sort of moments you kill for.
I agree that any elegant metric requires due diligence from the one consuming it. However, I would argue that sabermetric formulas are, by an large, robustly confirmable by anyone who wants to spend the time to understand them.
Derivative trades themselves were not responsible for the current economic predicament, though. It’s the fashion in which they were used, and the failure of the public — something you correctly identified — to understand them.
I think baseball is an incredible vehicle of poetry and of science. That it can maintain that dichotomy makes it all the more perfect in my opinion.
And now I’m going to add the Weighted OPS stat that you just referenced above. My problem is the multipliers. Where do they come from? Why is it the particular number? That’s what makes me think that SOME statistics are contrived – that a particular conclusion is set and then the data that makes that conclusion true are found.
Thanks GB
we’ll get ‘em tomorrow!
” MONAPP”
nick in sf-
hey, i like that.
MOLHPP be…….. ?
Nick in SF
Any shtick is straight man, zinger and audience response. So far you’re two out of three. Lukewarm crowd. Maybe try the two step – setup, predictable response, wack em. At AAA the two step with variations and so on.
Bo knows
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Dunn and De La Rosa, two lefties that bring it in the mid nineties. The first at Trenton, the second at Tampa. Both probably destined to be relievers. It’s been a long time since we had flame throwing lefties.
————————————————————
De La Rosa set up for Jonathan Ortiz for the first half of last year at Charleston, and was spectacular. He then moved into the rotation and was just as good. Late season advance to Tampa. Watch out for Ortiz. Good 90-92 MPH (normally, though 89-91) fastball, nice cutter, and a change up that makes Ramirez’ look like a little league pitch.
Doreen–
If you can find a copy of the Bill James handbook, it explains this infinitely better than I ever could. With that said, here’s where the multipliers come from: every baseball game every played.
In other words, regressions show that when you apply those multipliers to every single statistic compiled from the beginning of MLB history, you can predict runs scored and allowed (the ultimate basis for any useful metric, as runs determine outcomes) with great precision.
bryan -
So, in essence, the things that happen that go against the stats are among the best moments in baseball?
And in business, if it sounds too good to be true, you shouldn’t listen.
A single game regular season ticket in the premium zone could cost as much as a few days at Disney Land – WHEN YOU GO WITH A KID OR TWO – but what value do you get in your 3+ hours at the stadium if the team has merely an average game? Cripes .. there are 81 home games every year. What’s the point if it’s so expensive?
I remember movie theaters raised prices years ago, occasionally I’d read something comparing their two hours’ entertainment to that of a pro sports game. What’s next? $500+ movie seats?
Someone could say “move to San Diego if you want cheap seats top a pro baseball game”, but that’s not the point.
Why not have a standard MLB pricing scale adjusted for the local economies of each city? Yanks could still charge twice as much as a game in KC or SD. It’s not like ticket sales are their ONLY source of income. I’d go to the stadium more if it was cheaper. Who wouldn’t?
Did they have to put this epic Burnett-Beckett matchup on during the NFL draft (at the same time too)?
Bad scheduling job by MLB.
Doreen–
Absolutely.
Is there any good moment in history that didn’t involve the triumph of an underdog?
Uncle Ellsworth
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:24 pm
Thanks GB
we’ll get ‘em tomorrow!
————————————————————
YEP….ugly, ugly game.
Angelini needs to get some special instructions, or, probably moved to the outfield. He’s just not a shortstop. He tracks flies well, though and has a strong arm….just uncontrollable.
Jobber needs to pitch well tomorrow.
He shouldn’t worry about Ortiz’ comments or beaning Youk or anything… he just needs to keep his control in check and pitch a good ball game.
I was going to ask about MONAPP but I’m still trying to shake the whole “brain dead” thing.
I would love JC to pelt Ortiz in the gut, but alas, he’s probably the easiest out on the Sox roster right now. It would be a waste.
Bo Knows comedy. In my defense I was driving towards the Golden Gate Bridge during the whole exchange.
Randy, MOLHPP is a good stat but it’s often bested by MOILAA – Mention Of Innings Livan Actually Ate.
bryan-
damn, i was trying to throw out just enough stuff to push your buttons , but that didn’t work. you were right on that breaking ball. anyway , welcome to the blog.
even though i almost always take the opposing side against sabermetrics, i do welcome the addition of more posters fluent in it because it has become such a strong factor in the game.
plus sabermetricians are so easy to beat in arguments. they get so dogmatic with things like “clutch doesn’t exist”. i loved it when bill james after watching ortiz close up while working for the red sox finally admit that clutch play might exist.
Randy–
Thanks. I look forward to many a future healthy debate. Just don’t expect me to be as easy an out as Mr. James was in that moment…
By the way, I forgot to mention: f/x is a HUGE advancement in the game, right up there with anything else that’s happened recently, including my precious geek numbers.
For those that brought up the deal that sent Jason Tyner to Detroit, it was for future considerations. It was done to open up a AAA spot for one of the Brewers minor league players. Most likely a cash deal or low level non-prospect.
Nick
Multi tasking derivatives, that’s high speed. Wasn’t GG known for the Fosbury Flops?
I love how Brian Cashman is posting on this blog now disguising himself as “bryan”.
“If it has to be worked out, explained, almost justified, what good is it as a statistic? If you can’t look at the formula and almost intuitively understand how it was derived then the audience for that statistic is limited.”
I am willing to bet a fortune that many statistics that help make the world go round have that don’t have intuitive formulas. I do not know the reasoning behind FIP’s formula, but I will use my smarty pants brain to try and deduce it. If you want, you can email tangotiger.net and I am sure the creator will explain the formula.
FIP = (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP
HR’s hurt the most, you want to limit them because they are guaranteed run. Walks kill you because you dont let the defense make a play AND you’re not getting an out via strike out. Having high strike outs allows you to work around BB’s and will help offset HRs. I would assume that tangotiger did a statistical analysis to derive the constants applied to each.
Someone probably already brought this up, but could this have something to do with the Yankees not making the playoffs last year and struggling in the playoffs in recent years? Maybe fans are getting discouraged and don’t want to shell out that kind of money for a team that hasn’t won a World Series since 2000. If I had that money, I’d be in those seats, but maybe some of the wealthier Yankee fans just aren’t as die hard and willing to wait for a Championship. Just a thought.
“plus sabermetricians are so easy to beat in arguments. they get so dogmatic with things like “clutch doesn’t exist”. i loved it when bill james after watching ortiz close up while working for the red sox finally admit that clutch play might exist.”
Clutch doesn’t exist
And how ’bout Livan? He got full quickly today
Colin Curtis with a .908 OPS thus far in AA ? WTF he’s continuing his playoffs in AA
Oh and Vasquez hit a titanic shot. Watchout for Micheal Dunn.
I expect Vasquez to be up by June for the interleague series. September, the latest.
Doreen: If i were a baseball announcer I’d explain FIP like this:
“Phil Hughes has a FIP of 3, that is fielding independent ERA, so basically if he had a perfect defense behind him his era would be 3. Now on to the bottom of the 5th.”
You can just boil it down to the base particles.
“Thanks. I look forward to many a future healthy debate. Just don’t expect me to be as easy an out as Mr. James was in that moment…”
bryan-
james was kind of in a difficult position where working for the red sox at the peak of one of ortiz’s amazing clutch hitting steaks he would have looked foolish to say clutch hitting doesn’t exist.
the problem of stats and saying there is no such thing as clutch is that anyone can walk across a 10 ft 2×6 on the ground. very few can do it 30 stories up.
clutch is what describes the people who can do it 30 stories up.
Granted, Wikipedia is not the best place to garner information, but at 10:40 on a Thursday night, when I’m too tired to go further, it’ll have to do.
So Bill James must be somewhat of a genius with numbers, huh?
Randy: Don’t you think Bill James’ employment with the Red Sox had something to do with his going against it? Surely their own employee would not seek to hurt the marketability of one of their star players?
OMG, Baseball as “Poetry and Science” I love it. From the mundane to the sublime. Only on LoHud. A thousand posts of the challenged and then this. Baseball life after this will be drab.
randy l.
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:36 pm
bryan-
damn, i was trying to throw out just enough stuff to push your buttons , but that didn’t work. you were right on that breaking ball. anyway , welcome to the blog.
***even though i almost always take the opposing side against sabermetrics*** i do welcome the addition of more posters fluent in it because it has become such a strong factor in the game.
————————————————————
Oh, get off it, Randy. You take the opposite view on everything. You’re the most cantankerous, crotchety geezer on this board.
Next to me of course.
Hang in there, kid. You’ll make the top of the list, if I ever die.
Personally, I think that we’ll both just nasty away.
“And how ‘bout Livan? He got full quickly today ”
v-
he’s throwing too hard. he’s been up on the high eighties. he’s got to get back down to slow, slower, and slowest
And I think the idea of clutch hitting gets into the areas of sports psychology and what not, so I am not going to say that it does not exist, but if it did, players who are clutch would produce all the time, when generally in baseball they do not.
We just choose to remember the cool times.
Randy–
I don’t believe that clutch necessarily doesn’t exist (and I believe BJ takes a similar line). I just haven’t seen it mathematically evidenced. Now, before you all jump down my throat, I understand that the nature of “clutchness” is supposedly not quantifiable. My question is: why?
This is an honest question, and I don’t at all mean it to seem loaded or sound condescending: If Jeter, Ortiz et. al. are truly “clutch” performers, why don’t their career close+late statistics reflect this? Or, Randy, is your view of “clutch” more selective than that? I trust that your opinion on the matter is a little more sophisticated than just alluding to the flip, the dive in the stands, etc…
“I expect Vasquez to be up by June for the interleague series. September, the latest.”
My friend was at the game he said he’s still swinging at a few bad pitches, his eye is getting better, btw Colin Curtis is playing CF and Reegie Corona is getting better, so for what it’s worth, he also told McCallister kid is holding his own, a bit nasty.
Jerkface–
The reinforcements are much appreciated. I emphatically agree with everything you’ve said, and I think your “layman’s” breakdown of FIP is excellent.
It feels a little strange addressing someone as “Jerkface” and then complimenting him.
Jerkface -
Good job of explaining thanks. Still, and I guess I’ll have to read Bill James, whence the 13 HRs? The 3 BBs? The 2 Ks? Why not different numbers?
Also, does FIP say as much about a particular defense as it does about a pitcher? Or does it TOTALLY take the defense out of the pitcher’s effectiveness?
randy l -
Exactly! How do you quantify or account for the individuals who consistently beat the odds?
Or, are they the exceptions that prove the rule (an expression I’ve never quite understood
).
One more question – did Bill James have a wife a kids??????
With the above to Randy stated, though, I will say that the flip is my single favorite play in baseball history.
“james was kind of in a difficult position where working for the red sox at the peak of one of ortiz’s amazing clutch hitting steaks he would have looked foolish to say clutch hitting doesn’t exist.”
It doesn’t exist. You just remember the hot streaks, and forget the strikeouts with the bases loaded, etc.
Unless you’re recalling ARod, when you remember the weak groundouts, and forget these:
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxe.....YA2007.htm
and
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxe.....YA2007.htm
welcome to the blog bryan
I appreciate the addition of some statistics to the discussion.
It sure beats the Melky vs Gardner and “Wang is the worst pitcher ever” banter we’ve all been engaged in for the past week.
“Don’t you think Bill James’ employment with the Red Sox had something to do with his going against it?”
jerkface-
i’m sure it did. bill james isn’t stupid. he has a nice little cottage industry going and changing his public view on “clutch” was the move to make if he wanted to keep getting that red sox check.
i was especially surprised when recently i saw something that james said about new stats he’s developed show jeter may not be as bad a fielder as he originally thought. now that’s truly shocking, even more shocking than him saying clutch exists.
Doreen–
The problem is that there is very little evidence of individuals consistently beating the odds. I don’t think “statheads” would have any problem with the notion of “clutch” if there were clearer proof of it.
I’m watching the Dodgers/Astros game. Torre is out on the field checking out a ball for shoe polish.
A) Do they even use shoe polish anymore? and
B) Did Torre ever leave his seat while he was with the Yankees, except to change a pitcher????
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:55 pm
“james was kind of in a difficult position where working for the red sox at the peak of one of ortiz’s amazing clutch hitting steaks he would have looked foolish to say clutch hitting doesn’t exist.”
It doesn’t exist. You just remember the hot streaks, and forget the strikeouts with the bases loaded, etc.
Unless you’re recalling ARod, when you remember the weak groundouts, and forget these:
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxe.....YA2007.htm
and
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxe.....YA2007.htm
lol Doreen
that’s an interesting question. the odds of him having a successful marriage long enough to have kids is 1 in 7.
Sometimes you’re only as clutch as your next Dominican milkshake.
Thanks, B. Dave — Although Wang IS the worst pitcher ev–just kidding.
Actually, the good news, statistically, is that in addition to being REALLY bad, Wang has also been REALLY unlucky. Combine those 2 and you get… well, an ERA over freaking 30. Yikes.
lol Nick
tis true
“Hang in there, kid. You’ll make the top of the list, if I ever die.”
gb7-
i’m an older model than you ,but you have way more mileage
Nick in SF–
I have no idea what that means, but for some reason I’m compelled to agree.
Preparation H is much more developed in LA.
Doreen: The problem is that players don’t consistently beat the odds. David Ortiz is a career: .286 .381 .551 hitter. Care to guess what his close and late is? .279 .384 .562. He is essentially the same hitter. Over the course of a career all those moments will even out to his average. You remember Ortiz’s walk off HR, you FORGET all his FORGETTABLE moments like striking out, grounding out weakly, popping up, lining out, etc.
And FIP doesnt take into account defense at all. So if you have a staff if pitchers with a FIP of 3 and an ERA of 5, you’ll know that the defense probably isn’t too good.
The closer the true ERA is to FIP = better defense/more luck
Bryan, there’s really no point in trying to have a conversation with you when you come out and attack people (me?)…Hey, if watched AJ in three games and came away thinking he was lucky, then more power to you. If you want to take one game when he was off (and still battled) and extrapolate those stats for the rest of the year, more power to you.
So did Melky say “Take that damnit” or “brett is a track star”?
Boston Globes scouting report on this weekends series.
Conclusion: In every category, the Yankees have no advantage and should be happy to escape with a win.
http://www.boston.com/sports/c.....orlds.html
Also – one of the flaws of ‘clutchness’ is that if Ortiz hits a walkoff 3R HR after going 0-4 with 3 Ks in a 6-5 game, it’s proof of his ‘clutchness’. If ARod hit’s a 3R HR and a 2R HR in the first 5 innings, then goes 0-2 and Ks ending the game in a 6-5 loss, it’s proof he’s ‘not clutch’.
IMO – in these hypotheticals, ARod did more to help his team than Ortiz did.
Didn’t people point to guys like Cano and Swisher’s BABIP and say they were unlucky last year?
It is a pretty useful stat.
Betsy–
My initial post or two admittedly came off as harsh. You’ll hopefully notice that I’ve since moderated my tone, because I honestly don’t mean to offend anybody. No hard feelings.
What about percentage of clutchiness? Or clutchiness in relation to other players in similar circumstances?
By the way, what is considered a close game?
And the “flip” is a defensive play – how does that come into play?
I guess we’ll just have to be satisfied that there will always be things that happen in baseball that defy conventional wisdom and/or statistics.
Sure… AJ deserves credit for making the pitches when he needed to but if he keeps living on the edge like that, it will probably come back to bite him.
“You remember Ortiz’s walk off HR, you FORGET all his FORGETTABLE moments like striking out, grounding out weakly, popping up, lining out, etc.”
———-
kind of like the bad beats in poker. Everybody remembers when they had pocket aces and got busted.
If you’re an 80% favorite to win the hand, on a long enough timeline, you’ll win 80% of the time (betting/bluffing aside).
Bryan, you better git!
And take yer dadgum newfangled quantifications witchya!
DON’T COME ROUND HERE NO MORE SHOWIN OFF YER BOOK LEARNIN, YA HEAR!?!?!!!
You don’t need sabremetrics to tell you that AJ didn’t pitch well against Baltimore and Cleveland.
He battled and gave us a chance to win, which is really what it comes down to. Though he was hardly impressive. If it was Andy who pitched like that, everyone here would be calling him lucky too.
Doreen
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:56 pm
I’m watching the Dodgers/Astros game. Torre is out on the field checking out a ball for shoe polish.
A) Do they even use shoe polish anymore? and
B) Did Torre ever leave his seat while he was with the Yankees, except to change a pitcher????
————————————————————
Sure they still use shoe polish.
Back in 1957, the Yanks lost the WS because of shoe polish. A pitch was called a ball and shoe polish proved that the ball actually hit Nippy Jones. He’s on base and Mathews hits a two run homer and Yanks lose 4-3. Torre was there and his brother Frank was playing 1st base.
Happened to the Mets Cleon Jones in the ’69 Series. Since then, anybody named Jones has always polished his shoes.
Torre had both knees replaced, mainly because he couldn’t climb the steps to go to the mound or out to argue calls. It was usually a coach.
Cano created his own bad luck, softly hit liners to the infielders creates stat error. It’s like fielding stats, they don’t take into account playing next to Giambi versus Teixeira.
Nome–Indeed they did. However, I will point out that BABIP regresses much more predictably with pitchers (see: Lee, Cliff) than it does with hitters. That said, when you see that Swisher’s BABIP over 3 seasons went: .287, .308, .251, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that it’s likely for him to rebound somewhat.
Doreen: Defense is the hardest thing to quantify and I don’t trust many defensive stats. I will look at UZR and stuff like that, but all in all I try and trust my eyes on defense.
The flip was amazing, but if Jeter did ‘the flip’ then sucked the rest of the year, he wouldn’t be a good defender. The flip is just 1 ‘out of zone’ play that jeter made. I wouldnt sign a player because they made ‘the flip’. I guess what I’m saying is that the flip has no bearing on evaluating a players defense. Its simply a great moment in baseball that we can all appreciate for its uniqueness, but baseball business decisions should not be made based on it.
Late & Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.
pat,
The good news is that when ARod and Wang come back, the Yanks will have the advantages in almost every category.
When Melancon comes up, that could also have a big effect. I’m less convinced Bard will have an equally positive effect though he could help.
Dice-K pitched the 08 season like AJ has so far and had a 2.75 ERA and won 18 games (despite missing 1 month of the season).
You can be lucky, but it will usually come back to haunt you. That’s why most picked Dice-K to fall back to earth this year. His BABIP/FIP/BB per 9 etc. were not in line with his dominating stat line.
I hope people don’t freak out when they realize that Nick Swisher is a .260 hitter. He’s still a very useful player.
>when ARod and Wang come
how did this ever get through the filter
Also I should say that in the AJ burnett example, as a yankee fan I love Burnett for ‘battling’ and keeping the game close, but I am wishing as a fan of statistical analysis that he would cut down on his walks and HRs.
because it probably isnt unsustainable (for AJ and for my own heart)
“I hope people don’t freak out when they realize that Nick Swisher is a .260 hitter. He’s still a very useful player.”
you must be a first year Yankee fan.
randy l.
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:59 pm
“Hang in there, kid. You’ll make the top of the list, if I ever die.”
gb7-
i’m an older model than you ,but you have way more mileage
————————————————————
Yeah, but, they’re quality miles.
You’ve just been left out in the rain for too many years. You’re upholstry is dry rooting. I’m like rich, Corinthian leather.
Ed–
Nah, I’ve been a die-hard since Age 7. I know what’s coming, I’m just being unreasonably hopeful anyway.
I want the Yankees to trade for Dick Ankiel and make him our CFer. Kyle Lohse messed up his knee.
Kennedy Aceves & Gardner for Ankiel!
You’re upholstry is dry rooting
Not only that, but, you’re dry ***rotting*** too.
bryan-
take the example i gave of walking the plank .
99.5 % of people can walk across a 10ft 2X6 on the ground.
1% of people can do it 30 stories up between buildings.
the 1% that can isn’t doing anything different with the pressure on of dying .
the 1% didn’t do better 30 stories up. they did the same.
when you see a hitter like jeter do the same in the world series or playoff games that’s clutch.
the one player who is just amazing in clutch situations is mariano rivera. he has a whole season of playoff stats and they are ridiculously low compared to his already low regular season stats.
rivera really does get better than normal in clutch situations. i think most clutch players just do what they would normally do.
just catching up on some reading:
Jeff (NYC): Gun to your head — Gardner or Melky? Both have been OK so far. Does A-Jax sniff the majors this year?
Keith Law: Melky. Probably yes.
Jerkface,
Wow! Those Ortiz stats are pretty telling.
So, now, with some simple explanation, I “get” the FIP and see the relationship to the defense. (I just have this “need” to know the mechanics of coming up with the formula!)
It is true we tend to remember the special and sublimate the ordinary or bad.
While watching some of those Yankees classics, it’s striking to see bad at-bats by Paul O’Neill, Jeter, or whoever. The lore has it that those guys ALWAYS got the big hit. It’s actually kind of disappointing to see how ordinary the individual games were at times.
>I hope people don’t freak out when they realize that
>Nick Swisher is a .260 hitter. He’s still a very useful player.
But his **LODWDTSOTGR is 789.933!!!!!!!!!!
(**Level Of Decorum While Destroying The Sanctity of The Game Ratio)
AJ has never been known to have great control or keep the ball in the yard though.
He did walk 86 guys in 221 innings last year.
Swisher is a .260 hitter
Those who hate Giambi will hate Swisher. Same types of HR/OBP hitters, though Swisher will have more strikeouts and won’t be as much of a station t station runner, hsould have more doubles. His defense is very mediocre though.
“Cano created his own bad luck, softly hit liners to the infielders creates stat error. It’s like fielding stats, they don’t take into account playing next to Giambi versus Teixeira.”
True, this is why ‘BABIP’ is a flawed stat, as not every ‘BIP’ is created equal. Improved versions consider BABIP vs. Line Drive %, etc.
When Hit f/x is unveiled, that’ll be a holy grail of BABIP studies – BABIP with balls in play with different off the bat velocities would be HIGHLY useful.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....of-hit-fx/
Randy: Everyone playing baseball in the major leagues belongs in the 1% of plank walkers. MLB is the best of the best, of hundreds of thousands of high school, college, international, amateur, whatever leagues out there.
They are the cream of the crop. Are you saying that Derek Jeter or David Ortiz is in the 1% of the 1%? I don’t think that is true.
I think that there are certain players who are not flustered in ‘clutch’ situations and are more likely to hit to their career averages, where as some players like A-rod might get out of their normal game plan. Once again I caveat that this is more in the realm of sports psychology.
GB7-
I knew about Cleon Jones/Gil Hodges (my first ever World Series that I followed), but not the other.
When did Torre have his knees replaced?
And are you SURE they still polish their shoes? I thought they were more of the sneaker type shoe than the old leather shoe shoes. (If you know what I mean?)
Baseball is a subtle game, success is failing 70 percent of the time.
Jerkface -
Does clutchiness have to be late AND close, or can it be just late OR close?
“I want the Yankees to trade for Dick Ankiel and make him our CFer. Kyle Lohse messed up his knee.
Kennedy Aceves & Gardner for Ankiel!”
I’m wondering out loud – I HONESTLY wonder what it would take to get Rasmus, without giving up Hughes.
Would the Cardinals seriously consider a quantity for quality package of Kennedy+Melancon+Robertson+insert two more pitching prospects? Their higher levels are rather bare of even Kennedy level prospects.
V, forget Rasmus, he is one of the top CF prospects in baseball. Better to get Ankiel and pay a cheaper price.
Doreen: Baseball reference has a whole ‘clutch’ section in SPLITS for each player that list ‘Late and close’, ‘late’, ‘close’, ‘tied’, ‘within 1 r’,’2r’, etc
Go hog wild
“IMO – in these hypotheticals, ARod did more to help his team than Ortiz did.”
i agree a definition of clutch is difficult, but it’s like that pornography supreme court justice quote that i think you know it when you see it.
i do agree that arod’s un-clutch three run homers are useful, but then sometimes it’d be helpful if he could “urinate” when someone is looking.
Doreen,
How are you doing?
Stats ARE a valuable tool. To the front office. But only in addition to good scouting.
They’re not everyone’s cup of tea, and I do think some stat guys look down their noses at people who don’t subscribe to them wholeheartedly.
As for myself, I don’t need stats to tell me my team won or lost. Or why they won or lost. The only stats that really matters to me are the standings. In a game of inches and where aces get roughed up for no apparent reason, the only thing that matters is what’s happening on the field at any particular time.
I love numbers, absolutely love numbers. But sometimes, concentrating on them takes away the enjoyment of the game. So even though a particular guy I like has a yucky OPS, I thorougly enjoy watching him play the game. Even though another pitcher has never had 18 wins until his contract year, I love watching him pitch out of trouble.
Stats are great, they’re useful, but you don’t need to understand them all, or follow them religiously to enjoy the game.
I’m tired of late and close. I prefer runs early and often!
” Are you saying that Derek Jeter or David Ortiz is in the 1% of the 1%? ”
jerkface-
i think jeter and ortiz were/are in the 10% of the 1%.
but i’d say rivera is in the 1% of the 1%.
his playoff stats are of the charts amazing. not a small sample either.
“However, you seem to want to conflate two distinct points:
1) Sabermetric analysis is difficult to understand.
2) Sabermetric analysis is not valid
Clearly, (2) does not follow from (1). In fact, if we were to review the history of mathematical research, (1) would likely imply that (2) is NOT true. ”
Many experts in metric construction would disagree with you.
And “validity” is an enormously complex subject and is not primarily an issue of the operationalized statistic.
It is much more important for the construct the statistic is operationalized to be based on a sound theoretical foundation.
That’s the foundation for a “valid” metric.
Another aspect of validity for instance, is face validity.
What Doreen and many other people are implicitly arguing is that FIP has low face validity.
And there is something to that argument.
“V, forget Rasmus, he is one of the top CF prospects in baseball. Better to get Ankiel and pay a cheaper price.
Doreen: Baseball reference has a whole ‘clutch’ section in SPLITS for each player that list ‘Late and close’, ‘late’, ‘close’, ‘tied’, ‘within 1 r’,’2r’, etc
Go hog wild ”
I know who Rasmus and Ankiel are. I’m a Cards’ fan, along with being a Yankees’ fan.
But Ankiel’s an FA after the year, and I wouldn’t deal Kennedy for yet another outfielder as a rental (and he’s a Boras client).
He Ks a LOT, and doesn’t have a very refined plate approach as a 30 year old, due to his weird career. He’s a pure hacker, though he has better plate coverage than, say, Shelley Duncan.
Hey Bryan, no problem. For what it’s worth, I like your description of baseball as poetry and science. Again, I have no problem with stats. My overall point about AJ was that I saw him in 3 starts and I know that he wasn’t lucky. He has seemingly made that transition from thrower to pitcher……..that’s what I think has impressed all of us (besides his unbelievable stuff). Now that said, everyone has days when they don’t have their best. AJ’s #s on Sunday were obviously not great (though he only gave up 3 hits), but you don’t expect that from him very often. That’s why you can’t extrapolate the figures out over the course of a season. I would expect him to have an ERA well over 4 if he kept that up – but this is the type of game where you almost have to look beyond the numbers. Did he keep the team in the game? Yes. Did he give the team innings? Yes. Again, I’ve no problem with stats as long as they are combined with the human element…I love baseball and simply don’t like to reduce it to numbers.
But ankiel can take Wangs spot as well.
V
I appreciate stats, but there are too many variables. Giambi or Dunn are great examples. Man on third, one out, they walk, thereby padding their OBP but it sets up a DP. The indicated play was at least a grounder to the right side thereby plating a run. As Billy Martin said “If we score one, you have to score two to beat us”. The Torre years left a legacy of bad basic baseball in NY.
m -
I’m awake at 11:22. I’m not sure if that’s an accomplishment or if I’m going to regret it tomorrow!
I agree with you about statistics and numbers. During a game, I care about the game, But after a game, it’s sometimes fun to think about the statistical side. Maybe more than sometimes.
I think, though, what fascinates me even more than the stats themselves is how someone develops the more esoteric of them. BA, ERA are no brainers. But what makes a person so driven as to research years of data to come up with a formula that will explain or try to predict what a team or a player is capable of doing. That’s why I’m hung up on those darn multipliers!!!! How some people’s brains work. I love it. It’s a gift. Or a curse, too.
I have to say some of the best discussions here take place late.
Jerkface -
I’m fadin’ fast -I think I’ll skip the baseball reference splits for now.
Doreen
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:15 pm
GB7-
I knew about Cleon Jones/Gil Hodges (my first ever World Series that I followed), but not the other.
When did Torre have his knees replaced?
And are you SURE they still polish their shoes? I thought they were more of the sneaker type shoe than the old leather shoe shoes. (If you know what I mean?)
————————————————————
Not all use polish, but, yeah, many still do. Umps still checks balls that may have hit a foot.
The Nippy Jones HBP was in game 4 of the 57 series. Yanks lost in 7.
Torre had the knees replaced in ’07, I believe, it was.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3144047
“When Hit f/x is unveiled, that’ll be a holy grail of BABIP studies ”
so in addition to pitch f/x there is going to be hit f/x.
.. and then fielding f/x i assume ?
doreen , we better start studying
“Pitcher A’s 1st inning
Infield single
Strikeout
Weakly hit pop up falls in, between 3rd and LF. Runners on 1st and 3rd.
Groundout to 2nd, defense fails to turn a double play. Run scores.
Strikeout
Strikeout
Pitcher B’s 1st inning
Walk
Walk
Line out to deep center
Walk
Line out to right, runner thrown out at home having tagged from 3rd
So again, which pitcher do you want for the rest of the game?”
Here the really interesting question – would FIP give you a “valid” answer to that question?
In other words if one were to essentially argue that context independent models provide more valid assessments for inherent pitching performance than wouldn’t it make sense for the distribution of balls in play need to be taken into consideration?
Last time I checked FIP doesn’t care a wit if the pitcher gives up a line drive vs. ground ball.
the only thing worse than walking the plank is…
walking the Plunk.
14 seasons, and poor Eric never got a major league hit.
(but he did get one walk!)
CB: FIP would correctly value pitcher A over pitcher B.
Pitcher A’s FIP = 0
Pitcher B’s FIP = 9
cmon GB – tell me what is unique in Yankee lore about Eric Plunk.
randy l -
Oy vey!
“FIP would correctly value pitcher A over pitcher B.
Pitcher A’s FIP = 0
Pitcher B’s FIP = 9″
It’s not an issue of being correct. It’s an issue of validity.
They are different.
7*7, it was just one start. I would never assume he’s going to live on the edge like that. I sort of liked it because I already knew he could dominate. Good pitchers battle without their “good” stuff.
Bryan, knowledgable Yankee fans know enough to realize that he brings assets to the table even when he’s not in an ungodly hot streak. Those who proclaim that he stinks and is overrated based on a slump? Those are the same folks that boo CC, Rivera, Jeter, Tex, etc…….I can’t take them seriously
7*7, it was just one start. I would never assume he’s going to live on the edge like that. I sort of liked it because I already knew he could dominate. Good pitchers battle without their “good” stuff.
Bryan, knowledgable Yankee fans know enough to realize that he brings assets to the table even when he’s not in an ungodly hot streak. Those who proclaim that he stinks and is overrated based on a slump? Those are the same folks that boo CC, Rivera, Jeter, Tex, etc…….I can’t take them seriously
Traded for Ricky Henderson….
Twice.
Traded for Ricky Henderson….
Twice.
ding ding ding, we have a winner.
the technology that i think is going to be really useful is when a manager looks at his handheld computer and it says “your pitcher is now operating on reserve power”.
also he named his first child, Ker.
CB
That was a brilliant statement. It’s a keystone.
T-Rock, how did AJ not pitch well against Baltimore? Because he didn’t dominate? I understand he only made it through 5/1/3 innings, but he only gave up 2 runs…….he had that huge K and he was trying to staunch the bleeding (after two dreadful losses by the Yankees). He was also pitching in front of friends/family and it was his first start in stripes. He pitched well…..but obviously it wasn’t anything like his start against Tampa.
Against Cleveland, I just think you have to look beyond the numbers. He did a good job in that game – that’s really the most important thing to me.
DT
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:35 pm
Traded for Ricky Henderson….
Twice.
ding ding ding, we have a winner.
————————————————————
Two of the worst trades NYY ever made under Steinbrenner…trading Henderson and Winfield. Jay Buhner was close.
They really need to show Ken Burns’ Baseball during the day. The pace and the music, in spite of the beauty and content of the series, put me to sleep. Without fail.
And while MLB seems to replay EVERYTHING else SEVERAL times a day, they haven’t replayed that series during the day, as far as I know.
Cb: I think FIP would? No? FIP says that player A is better.
If you really wanted to be valid you’d probably have to look at secondary statistics. Pitcher B cant strike out anyone or find the zone, so I think FIPs generous 9 ERA is a good estimate of future performance.
DT
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:37 pm
also he named his first child, Ker.
————————————————————
LMAO. That’s worse then anything that I have ever posted.
Man the ivy at Wrigley is looking scraggly. Is it always that way in April?
That’s the irony of Steinbrenner, a blunderer that parlayed 10 million into 1.5 billion. The Mets have been run even more poorly and they are second best in value. Location, location, location.
Thanks for the link, Pat. I didn’t bother clicking on it – I’m not interested in what Boston mediots have to say after reading their drivel during ST.
“Two of the worst trades NYY ever made under Steinbrenner…trading Henderson and Winfield. Jay Buhner was close.”
I remembered when Winfield left, but I didn’t remember for who? Mike Witt? yikes…. he gave the Yanks five wins. Winfield went on to hit over 100 more homers.
Can they blame intern Cashman for that one?
The ivy at Wrigley doesn’t fully bloom until the third or fourth week of May.
Yep. Mike Witt, and he was finished after about two terrible starts. Missed one year and made 9 starts in ’93. About 4 starts were good and he was gone by June.
The more I hear this story about Big Pene and Pouklis, the more eager I become to see Joba throw one high and inside against one or both.
Come on, Joba, baby, don’t back down; don’t let them rattle you; don’t let them initimidate you. All you baby, high and inside. Remember: You’re the best thing to come out of the Yankee farm system since DJ. And you’re the heir.
Show Boston what you think of their warnings.
The more I hear this story about Big Pene and Pouklis, the more eager I become to see Joba throw one high and inside against one or both.
Come on, Joba, baby, don’t back down; don’t let them rattle you; don’t let them initimidate you. All you baby, high and inside. Remember: You’re the best thing to come out of the Yankee farm system since DJ. And you’re the heir.
Show Boston what you think of their warnings.
Just one other random thought about FIP – since there is never an occasion when a pitcher is fielder-independent, wouldn’t just knowing a guy is a high-strike out pitcher giving you similar information? It may not be quantified, but it has the informational value, no?
You know a pitcher like CMW pitches to contact; you know he is reliant on his defense. That doesn’t make him a bad pitcher. But if he also had the ability to strike out more hitters, that would make him a more effective pitcher than he already is. But I knew that before I even knew FIP existed.
Wouldn’t saying a pitcher has excellent control (good BB/K ratio) and gives up few HRs be the information that a casual fan would use?
I suppose FIP is a single statistic that would make comparisons of one pitcher to another easier.
“I think FIP would? No? FIP says that player A is better. ”
It really doesn’t. I’m not trying to be difficult about this.
That’s truly not a conclusion you can draw from those results.
“Better” is the whole key there. That’s what’s critical.
And that is very complicated.
Go look at Andy Pettite’s FIP last year and tell me if he was “better” than Cole Hamels last year?
Would you want to truly make that argument?
Pettite FIP – 3.71
Hamels FIP – 3.72
“The ivy at Wrigley doesn’t fully bloom until the third or fourth week of May.”
Well that’s good news. For a second I thought Selig was going to hold another conference call about the economy’s effect on foliage.
Gardner and Eiland are very old school kind of guys.
They are trying to develop Joba to be aggressive and an intimidating [or at the very least an uncomfortable] presence on the mound in the same way that Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, and even Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett was/is on the mound.
Which means Joba owns part of that plate as well and he’s going to pitch inside.
Ortiz can complain and moan all he wants, but Joba isn’t going to change how he pitches.
It’s a philosophy Girardi and Eiland very much believe in and that’s the way it’s going to stay.
Gardner and Eiland are very old school kind of guys.
———-
Oops, I mean Girardi and Eiland of course.
I think pitching inside is not the issue, Ortiz is talking about throwing at the big celestial object that draws pitches into its orbit.
Pettittes FIP is built on his propensity to not give up home runs. And you know what, if I were looking at Pettitte vs Hamels in a vacuum, I might take Pettitte.
Hamels is an EXTREME fly ball pitcher. Pettitte is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Both can get K’s, both don’t really walk many. Hamels gives up more HRs, less hits.
I dunno, it’d be tough. I think if you have 2 players with a similiar FIP I’d want to look at more stats.
However in the example used, FIP is perfectly acceptable for player a vs b, because if you look with your eyeballs Player A is amazing and Player B is not. Its science!
Coles has a better age stat. And Pettitte currently has a better health record. Tough choice.
I downloaded a sample of the “Handbook” and was looking at manager’s stats. One caught my eye: runners moving on the pitch. How can that possibly take into account runners who go on their own, without a sign from the manager? Also, who decides the exact definition of long hook/short hook?
And what the heck is this one: PL%: the percentage of players
who had the platoon advatange at the start of the game????
FIP ain’t perfect, as, again, it tells you nothing about how hard the ball is hit.
However, it attempts to put Ks, BBs, and HRs into a combined statistic, as it’s difficult to compare a low K, low BB, low HR guy with a high K, high BB, high HR guy. No way to tell, without digging deeper, who is better based purely on those stats and ERA.
Yeah, I don’t think Joba is paying too much attention to what any Sox player has to say. Some caller did say to Michael Kay, though, that he thought these comments meant that Joba is already in Sox’ minds………which is good for Joba, not so much for the Sox. I’m hoping none of the umpires read the quotes because I think if Joba comes close to a Sox, there’s going to be trouble – and you know he will be ejected.
And that would be Cole Hamels.
I know I’m whining, but why a Sunday night game? At 8:00? The league was actually doing a decent job of giving the Yankees day games on getaway days.
So what will Steve Phillips talk about on Sunday? Alex’s steroids? The “launching pad”? How AJ’s an average pitcher?
I think pitching inside is not the issue, Ortiz is talking about throwing at the big celestial object that draws pitches into its orbit.
——–
Perhaps Ortiz didn’t watch that closely for years when his pal Pedro Martinez had the long time reputation as a headhunter.
Beckett did the same thing when he threw at Abreu.
I don’t know if Joba intended to drill Youkilis in the coconut.
But I absolutely do believe he intentionally tried to buzz a couple under his chin and intimidate the guy because Youkilis had some success against him.
I don’t have any issues with that. It seems Beckett and Pedro didn’t have a problem pitching that way.
Harold Reynolds said he wouldn’t be surprised if, as a result of Ortiz’ statement, if the umpires issue warnings to both teams upon exchange of the lineups.
Here’s the thing. Will they be able to pitch IN, but not IN and UP, or not in at all? And if you pitch in and hit someone in the hip or the lower part of the body at any rate, will that still be considered intentional?
All of this is just ridiculous. It certainly puts pitchers at a disadvantage.
I wonder how Nolan Ryan would fare in todays math. baseball equations ?? Considering he averaged almost 5 walks every 9 innings….Then again he was barely a .500 pitcher…He did have all those k’s and No-No’s….
Pat M -
Oh my gosh! Nolan Ryan! I can’t imagine the stats would be kind to him.
Nolan Ryan would be fine because he basically didnt give up HRs or Hits, and had a very good K rate for his career. His FIPs were constantly in the low 3′s, high 2′s. Sick.
Joba will make us proud and should not listen to David Sterortiz .
Pat M,
You watching this basketball game?…Order has been restored…Need to hold on…
“Nolan Ryan would be fine because he basically didnt give up HRs or Hits, and had a very good K rate for his career. His FIPs were constantly in the low 3’s, high 2’s. Sick.”
Exactly. It’s ok to walk 3 guys an inning if you give up 0 hits, lol.
Jerkface -
Seriously???? Wow.
Doreen, I think it’s ridiculous, too……and then the wimps that go up to the plate wearing many pounds of armor don’t help either.
Most people consider Ryan overrated as HOFers go, so what does that say that he’d be among the best when it comes to FIP?
I dont know why anyone would consider him overrated. Low career ERA in a huge amount of innings, lots of shut outs, complete games, strike outs, no hitters.
Betsy good job starting this dicussion!
If baseball used football’s standards for HOF worthiness, Ryan would be in on his sheer impact of the game.
Heat and intimidation from the mound.
Growing up in close proximity, I remember seeing highlights of him in that ugly rainbow striped uni. He was the only name in baseball I knew when I was growing up.
What is considered a “good” bb/k ratio?
Ryan’s career seems to be 1 walk for every 2 Ks.
And it looks like (based on ERA) he should have won more games – did he play for offensively challenged teams?
m,Lakers played like crap yet are still in the game…They’ll sweep this series….Nolan Ryan had a career whip of 1.25 and an era of 3.20 or so…I think he never pitched in a game ( as a starter ) wnere he didn’t walk a hitter….Amazing stats..
Pat M,
The first baseman must’ve grown tired of talking to all the pedestrians.
m: did you ask why the Yankees and Red Sox are playing a Sunday night game at the hour at which Sunday night games are played? Hmmm, I wonder.
Doreen: I think atleast 2:1 for an average pitcher, 3:1 and greater for elite pitchers.
m
I was a young Mets fan when Ryan was still there. At the time, I thought he walked a lot more people than he struck out. He got traded to the American league, where he seemed to have reversed those numbers. I’m sure part of that was just maturation, but I always believed that what helped him along was that he benefitted at first from a higher strike zone that existed in the American League because of the huge chest protectors the homeplate umpires used to wear.
The rest, as they say, is history. Oh, and he (and more importantly, maybe, his wife) hated New York (or so the story goes).
Thanks, Jerkface.
Hitters only had a ba of .210 or so against him…..lifetime…He pitched for years on a real bad Angel team in the 70′s
Yeah, don’t watch much Sunday night baseball, so I forgot that’s the regular time. But what a ridiculous time for East Coasters anyway.
Otherwise, I don’t know what you’re getting at.
Am the only person laughing at the exchange between Doreen & Jerkface?
Not the actual discussion, but how Doreen keeps addressing Jerkface in each post.
Just sounds funny.
Pat M -
Thanks. From his numbers it looked like he should have won 20 every year. But you can’t win if your team doesn’t score.
wow lots of activity tonight – do you think people are excited about the game tomorrow of FIPS?
*I*
They tend to try to feature marquee matchups on the national telecasts. You just don’t understand the rivalry…
Buddy B -
I already told him the other day – I hate typing that, but that’s his name here, so I’m typing it.
I get that a lot
Idiotface hasn’t been here in a while.
Of course, I’m assuming Jerkface is a male person.
m, very clever response to Ryan’s charity….See all tomorrow as the Yanks invade Beantown…Is weather going to be an issue ????
Nick in SF
April 24th, 2009 at 12:40 am
They tend to try to feature marquee matchups on the national telecasts. You just don’t understand the rivalry…
nice callback Nick
I think I have to try and get some sleep.
Night all.
Weather isn’t going to be an issue for Youk; he’ll be seeing stars rain or shine.
night Doreen!
Someone quoting mark feinsand earlier today: “This guy showed over three years what his ceiling was, so don’t let four homers this week make you believe he’s going to break out and become the next Bernie Williams.”
If the Yankees thoght like this in 1992 or so, there never would have been a Bernie Williams. I htink Gardner and Melky can develop into very good big leaguers. But they have to play. Washed up stars like Matsui and Damon need to be let go, and not replaced with other washed up big names. But that will never happen today. If a Bernie Williams was coming up in this yankee environment, he’d be on the bench next to Melky or in Scranton.
I’m not saying these two guys will develop to be as good as Bernie. But players at any position (except relievers because you need so many) have the odds against them because the Yankees will overpay for some name veteran because they have to sell their 900-dollar seats.
Damon is washed up? Matsui is washed up?
These guys need to be let go?
That’s absurd.
Damon is still a very productive player for them. He had a great season last year.
If Matsui’s knees hold up, he’s also a very productive player for this team.
Neither are likely to be with the team next year so you’re gonna have to live with two older but very productive players for the rest of the season.
Melky’s had 1500 ABs to show what he can do. Gardner has had 170 ABs.
Let Melky sit on the bench where he’s most valuable to this team.
“I’m not saying these two guys will develop to be as good as Bernie. But players at any position (except relievers because you need so many) have the odds against them”
————
Are you saying Melky hasn’t gotten a chance? And what are they doing to Gardner? stunting his growth by starting him in center?
Everyone bailed out? Seems like the Scranton Yankee starters are so efficient, the bullpen guys are starving (lol, Livan!) for innings.
Also, check out the comments. Jennings is asked about Austin Jackson. His comp is pretty interesting.
http://community.thetimes-trib.....-quot.aspx
“Melky’s had 1500 ABs to show what he can do. Gardner has had 170 ABs.
Let Melky sit on the bench where he’s most valuable to this team.”
Melky’s 24. Until a player’s 27, you haven’t seen everything a player can show you. Period.
Granted, Melky’s 2008 was beyond horrid, but his 2006-2007 show the signs of a guy who can be a productive player.
First full season
Player A: 23 years old, 320 AB, .237/.336/.350, 3 HR, 57 K
Player B: 21 years old, 460 AB, .280/.360/.391, 7 HR, 59 K
Second full season
Player A: 24 years old, 261 AB, .280/.354/.406, 5 HR, 36 K
Player B: 22 years old, 545 AB, .273/.327/.391, 8 HR, 68 K
Third full season
Player A: 25 years old, 567 AB, .268/.333/.400, 12 HR, 106 K
Player B: 23 years old, 414 AB, .249/.301/.341, 8 HR, 58 K
Bernie didn’t break out with a .289/.384/.453 line until his AGE 26 SEASON. Even then, only 12 HR. A little more power at 27, and 29 HR breakout at 28 (20-30 rates after that, until his last couple of seasons).
Compared to Bernie’s breakout, Melky is only 24.
I am NOT saying that Melky will become Bernie, or that he’s any better than Juan Rivera in the long term, but to close the book on him because of his AGE 21-23 SEASONS is exceptionally short-sighted. I swear, the # of young guys who ‘get it’ (especially with power) immediately is an extremely short list.
Could you guys imagine what this blog would read like if we had Justin Upton, a top tier elite talent? After an excellent age 20 season, he’s 6/36 with 12 Ks to start 2009. Ouch.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/W/Pwillb002.htm
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/C/Pcabrm002.htm
“Melky’s had 1500 ABs to show what he can do. Gardner has had 170 ABs.
Let Melky sit on the bench where he’s most valuable to this team.”
Melky’s 24. Until a player’s 27, you haven’t seen everything a player can show you. Period.
Granted, Melky’s 2008 was beyond horrid, but his 2006-2007 show the signs of a guy who can be a productive player.
First full season
Player A: 23 years old, 320 AB, .237/.336/.350, 3 HR, 57 K
Player B: 21 years old, 460 AB, .280/.360/.391, 7 HR, 59 K
Second full season
Player A: 24 years old, 261 AB, .280/.354/.406, 5 HR, 36 K
Player B: 22 years old, 545 AB, .273/.327/.391, 8 HR, 68 K
Third full season
Player A: 25 years old, 567 AB, .268/.333/.400, 12 HR, 106 K
Player B: 23 years old, 414 AB, .249/.301/.341, 8 HR, 58 K
Bernie didn’t break out with a .289/.384/.453 line until his AGE 26 SEASON. Even then, only 12 HR. A little more power at 27, and 29 HR breakout at 28 (20-30 rates after that, until his last couple of seasons).
Compared to Bernie’s breakout, Melky is only 24.
I am NOT saying that Melky will become Bernie, or that he’s any better than Juan Rivera in the long term, but to close the book on him because of his AGE 21-23 SEASONS is exceptionally short-sighted. I swear, the # of young guys who ‘get it’ (especially with power) immediately is an extremely short list.
Could you guys imagine what this blog would read like if we had Justin Upton, a top tier elite talent? After an excellent age 20 season, he’s 6/36 with 12 Ks to start 2009. Ouch.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/W/Pwillb002.htm
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/C/Pcabrm002.htm
I wouldn’t be supprised if Wang was put on the DL and another player was called up for this series…if they are going to do it, they might as well give themselves another bullpen arm or bench player.