Today in The Journal News
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jun 10, 2009 
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A.J. Burnett couldn’t get through three innings as the Yankees again fell to the Red Sox.
Brian Bruney is getting close to a return — but not that close. This notebook also has updates on Chien-Ming Wang and Hideki Matsui.
The Yankees took a five-tool outfielder with their first pick of the draft.
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The AccuWeather people say it’s the dimensions, not the wind that is leading to all the homers at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees have claimed since construction started that the dimensions at the Stadium would be the same as the old Stadium. But that is obviously not the case in right field. The wall is shorter (particularly in the corner) and the gap is shorter. The players noticed that during the first exhibition game.
Hey, I already mentioned that article on the stadium!
I even gave a link!
Problem is, does anybody believe *anything* Accuweather reports?
It’s pretty easy to recognize the shorter distance with a naked eye.
Eric Wedge picked it up without even knowing the facts.
“Problem is, does anybody believe anything Accuweather reports?”
Tell them to start getting their weather reporting right. We’ll worry about Yankee stadium.
It’s funny how a weather organization is the one doing baseball dimensions analysis. Soon Peter will be working on stem cell research…
“To piggyback that thought, those who are suggesting he could be with the big club in as soon as two years are beyond out of their minds.”
If Slade Heathcott made the big league team 6 years from now I’d be happy. If he ever makes the big leagues I’d be happy because chances are he’ll never play in the bigs at all.
He’s going to take 4-5 years minimum to get to the bigs. 4 years would put him at 22-23. I doubt he’s able to develop that quickly.
Look around the bigs and see how many 22 year olds are playing – ever mind 20 year olds.
Justin Upton was called up at 20 and couldn’t hack it. Justin Upton. Go look at what he’s doing right now at the age of 21 going on 22.
And that’s Justin Upton. The best young player to enter the game since ARod. He couldn’t handle the bigs at the age of 20.
The outfield dimensions will be addressed after this season. Some right field seats will be lost because of the structure change and some poor sightlines will be changed. Monument Park will be more clearly seen.
Vince,
Do you have any inside knowledge to support your claim, or is that what you are anticipating?
Smart move by oe yesterday using only the worst pieces of the bullpen to mop up the mess.
Now we have Aceves, Robertson, and Mo all ready to go.
Nice of Accuweahter to report a story that hittracker and others had reported on BEFORE the season started.
They did this to fit a few extra rows of seats…
i think Accuweather did a great job….i felt it was the wall height and the curve in the wall….i hope they address this problem seasons end
oe is Joe.
Wakefield has 7 more wins than Wang. I wonder what Wakefield shows up tonight?
CB,
From the other thread.
Slade is very athletic and his baseball skills are more refined than Fuentes (the Red Sox first round pick). I actually thought the Red Sox would choose, Renfroe (who they got in the second round) or Slade over Fuentes because both of those kids are thought of by most scouts as better players.
Seems to me the Red Sox, like most of the teams in this draft, really concentrated on signability. They will go over slot to sign Renfroe but, I bet they stay at slot for Fuentes.
Slade is the kind of kid, in a less pitching rich draft, that probably goes in the Top 12-15 picks. When a guy like that falls to the Yankees, you gotta grab him.
Packed crowd was impressive …:(
Which is worse to refresh to- The Lace and Stilettos ad promoting lap dances or the 10% off redsox merchandise ad? I hit the daily double on my last refresh.
I remember the good old days when Lace and Stilettos used to just push the buffet and happy hour. Guess that’s like going to Hooters for the wings though.
Thanks for the rational point CB. A lot of fans get worked up about the draft and don’t realize how long it takes for prospects to provide any return to the organization that drafts them.
The optimal situation for Heathcott is as follows. He signs early and plays in rookie ball this year. I doubt that will happen though.
In 2010 he plays in Charleston, even that’s a stretch as a YOUNG rookie. It’s more likely that he plays at least a portion of 2011 in Charleston. 2011 is Charleston/Tampa depending on his development. 2012 is Tampa/Trenton, 2013 is Trenton/Scranton and maybe he gets a call-up in 2014.
So as you said if we’re lucky he sees the bigs in late 2013 or 2014.
From previous thread:
Patrick, there we disagree. Games in September have to be bigger games. Ask any ballplayer in the world. That’s where you have a chance to make up for, if you want use that, a lot of your losses. You have to lose games, so better in June, when you have plenty of time to catch up, than in September.
“I actually thought the Red Sox would choose, Renfroe (who they got in the second round)”
Renfroe went in the 3rd round, SJ.
“Seems to me the Red Sox, like most of the teams in this draft, really concentrated on signability.”
Maybe the Red Sox concentrated on signability but it sure didn’t seem that way for most other teams. All the pitchers we thought would slide due to signability were snatched up fairly quickly.
Yeah but if you win the games in June you don’t have to stress about losses in September. Any way you cut it a loss is a loss is a loss, doesn’t matter when it happens. It’s not like a loss in September = 1.5 losses. Come on now, be rational.
The idiot who thought making the short porch in right shorter must have also thought Burnett was a great signing
“All the pitchers we thought would slide due to signability were snatched up fairly quickly.”
Very surprised by the Royals grabbing Crow.
“Very surprised by the Royals grabbing Crow.”
Yeah so was I.
Also surprised at Matzek to Colorado, Purke to Texas, Miller to the Cards, etc.
Patrick, it’s obviously not 1.5 losses or anything but what I’m saying is that…how do I put this…you need to look at those games bigger than others or you’d totally freak out over any loss in the other months and how you might be ONE game out.
Don’t worry now, we have plenty of time left is more or less my point I guess.
From the other thread re: Pittsburgh and Tony…..
We negotiated until well into the night on Monday. It was 50-50 whether we would have a meeting of the minds.
Tuesday morning, another team in the Top 10 called us and said they were passing on a certain pitcher because of signability reasons. If Tony, or another pitcher they were eyeing, were available, they would consider taking Tony if we could reach a preliminary deal with them.
That gave us 3 places to land, no lower than 12.
Pittsburgh has been on Tony all year. They went to 24 of his games. They filmed his BP and infield on numerous occasions.
Scout friends of mine from other teams would often tell me how much the Pirates liked him. After he met with Neil Huntington and Greg Smith in Boston (two great guys, BTW) after the ACC Tournament, I had a feeling he was the guy they really wanted.
We made some real progress yesterday morning. Enough progress to give me hope we could get an agreement in place. At least the parameters of one.
There were a couple of loose ends to tie up on the Pirates end.
By 4:30 yesterday, they said that if Ackley doesn’t fall to 4, they would take him.
Our advisors from Aces (Sam and Seth Levinson, who did a wonderful job) told us to sit tight and wait for his name to be called because ANYTHING can happen.
We sat tight and things worked out.
This morning, 4 huge boxes are at the door of his house. Pirate hats, t-shirts, golf shorts, shorts, warm ups, just about everything with a logo and about 15 of each.
So, I guess they can’t change their minds now. He’s a Pittsburgh Pirate.
I’ll be in here for another half and hour. If anybody has any specific questions, I’ll be happy to answer them.
So SJ, are you still a Yankee fan or are you switching to the Pirates now?
SJ,
Thanks. I agree that at that point in the draft the yankees were actually fortunate that Heathcott was still on the board. He was likely both the top player on their board and plays a position of need. It’s always very nice to be able to draft a HS player who can play all three OF spots. That’s a great luxury to have.
And as you mentioned – he’ll sign.
The Red Sox have an interesting draft approach – they are often more aggressive about going over slot in later rounds.
I think the days of the yankees (and sox) having this enormous strategic advantage over other clubs in the draft due to “signability” are largely over. Last year the Royals spent more than anyone and took (and signed) Tim Melville after round 1.
This year the clubs really didn’t balk much when all of the high school arms started making their absurd demands. They took them anyway. So while Purke, Turner and Miller may have fell some it was only 5-6 spots not 15-20.
This was inevitable. Same thing happened to Billy Beane. Everyone started using moneyball approaches and Beane lost his monopoly on that strategy. And if everyone is doing it then it’s not nearly the advantage (and value) it once was.
And this inevitability is part of why losing Cole last year was tough. If Cole is in the draft this year no way he falls even close to the end of round 1.
The yankees now need to use their financial advantage in an entirely different way to succeed in the draft. They need a disruptive strategy where they change the economics of scouting. They need to get the best scouts possible by offerring them more money than any other club and on top of that they need to hire more scouts to create the most extensive network of amateur talent evaluators in the game.
To succeed in the draft now they’re going to have to be better than anyone else in identifying later round talents.
Unfortunately, it’s been those kinds of investments that the club just hasn’t made aggressively enough. It’s changed some but not nearly enough.
And now they can’t count as much on high ceiling kids falling to the end of the first round – never mind later rounds.
They can’t use their 2006 strategy in 2010 and beyond. Won’t produce nearly the same returns.
“Don’t worry now, we have plenty of time left is more or less my point I guess.”
I’m not worried and I think the players are PAID to have an intense attitude in every game. Listen to Jeter, he always talks about treating every game as it’s own and not worrying about games in the future or past. The most important game is the one you are playing.
SJ:
Where do you see your nephew starting out?
So your nephew projets to be a 270 hitter with pop, SJ?
What is his destination SJ?
Projets is projects.
Time to bounce back tonight!
“Tuesday morning, another team in the Top 10 called us and said they were passing on a certain pitcher because of signability reasons.”
The Braves is my guess
“My point is that one game in June is the same as one game in September. That’s simply a fact, there’s no way around it. A loss in June counts the same as a loss in April, May, July, August or September.”
patrick-
where’s the context ?
let’s take this to an extreme.
which game would you rather lose- an elimination game at the end of the year or the first game of the season ?
all losses do not have equal consequences.
CB,
One thing that happened Monday night was that the HS arms, and their advisors, really ratcheted up the rhetoric about their money demands.
The Rockies for example, were looking to take Rex Brothers at #11. They instead take Matzek, because he falls, and still get Brothers at #34.
What’s going to be interested is to see how many of these guys get over slot deals.
Bud is really clamping down on it these days. The HS kids have more leverage than the college kids, as long as their colleges keep their scholarship money available.
It was also a very thin draft for position players. There just aren’t that many guys worthy of getting over the slot deals among position players in this years draft.
What will be interesting is to see how many teams roll their savings over to the Latin American free agent period.
My guess is, some will, and some will just hold off until next year’s draft.
randy l., good point.
If this has been addressed already, sorry.
Why are there “character issues” being mentioned about Slade Heathcott? Has he been in and out of trouble?
mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=heathcott
Interesting points, CB. Would seem to point to the notion that teams throughout baseball now recognize building through solid scouting/drafting, while more expensive than years past, is the smarter and more cost effective approach.
No question SJ, you seem like a cool dude, with a ton of baseball insight.
Very happy for you and Tony. I’m sure no matter what happens, he’ll put forth the effort to be a success.
John in Ohio,
go to RAB link to the right. they do a good job detailing both parents having drug problems. slade missed time on field due to academics, etc.
SJ,
Great info on Tony’s signing. Thanks so much.
Some questions to you –
How did the teams weight offense and defense in their evaluations? Was it roughly 50/50 – just your gut sense.
Did you get the sense that the teams that were most interested in him were the ones that emphasized defense the most or wanted to orient their teams in that direction in the future?
I specifically ask that because I find it very interesting that Pittsburgh makes a very unpopular trade of the very overrated Nate McClouth and drafts Tony in the same draft.
McClouth is a horrible CF and replacing him with McCutchen will be gobs of runs saved (and they also traded for Gorkys Hernandez whose calling card is defense in CF).
You discussed run prevention. How did the teams determine Tony was the best overall defensive player in the draft? Did the teams discuss how many runs they thought tony would save for them? I ask because it’s notoriously hard to pin down run prevention for catchers in terms of numbers. Just wondering what their thinking was on that.
Did you have a sense that the other 2 teams in the top 10 were going to call? Sounds like Pittsburgh was on him for a long time? Were the other teams?
Sam I am is back?
Let me see if I got this right. The right field dimensions are making balls fly out to left field? Because the numbers are double in left, too.
I catch baseball highlights all the time on espnews, and they never fail to blame NYS home runs on the “launching pad”. It’s lazy reporting and poor journalistic efforts when they don’t even bother to differentiate between the no-doubters and the NYS specials.
When are people going to understand that not every homerun in a Yankee home game is a NYS gift?
m, RAB says about 20 HR’s are YS specials.
Thanks Buck
He’s going to West Virginia in the South Atlantic League. Full season low A ball. We are skipping short season, which is great.
If he plays well there, he has a shot to be in AA by mid-season next year.
As far as his “projections” are concerned offensively…..
The same internet scouts who said, “He will never play in the ACC, never hit for power at all, and never hit for a high average”, haven’t been right yet on the kid.
He hit over .360 for most of the season, despite playing the last 20 games with a wrist injury, led the ACC in HR’s for 3/4 of the season, and threw out the most baserunners in the conference.
I don’t think he will hit .300 at every level. However, he has above average power for a catcher, and his defensive skills are elite.
If you look at the salary pattern for guys like that since 1990, they average over 30 million dollars in career earnings over the course of their career.
If his career goes like that, everybody will be very happy.
Thanks SJ.
So I was about right in my 270-280 with pop prediction?
HIP,
Thanks for that tidbit. 20% are park specials? That’s still too high, but they can’t do anything about it right now.
Me personally, I ahve no issue at all with the HR’s.
“all losses do not have equal consequences.”
That’s false though. Lets say a team needs to be 100-62 to win the division. They lose the first game of the season then go 99-62 the rest of the way. They miss the playoffs by one game. Or they go 99-62 through the first 161 games and lose the last game of the season.
Each loss counts the same.
SJ,
you said Bud is really clamping down on trying to not get teams to go over slot…what can he do if anything?
SJ: I can’t get over how awesome this must be for you and your family!
I’m sure somewhere I’ve got a decent question for you, but i’m running on 7 hours of sleep in two nights so anything I say right now is not going to be coherent.
So let me ask you this:
When did you guys realize Tony had a legit shot at this thing? Or is it something you always knew?
Ahve is have.
Losses against division rivals hurt double.
0-6 against the Royals is not the same as 0-6 against the Royals or even the Orioles.
“This morning, 4 huge boxes are at the door of his house. Pirate hats, t-shirts, golf shorts, shorts, warm ups, just about everything with a logo and about 15 of each.”
sj44-
so when pat m, green beret, and i show up on your doorstep after the season to stay at your house and play on your golf course to celebrate the yankees winning #27 ( and tony signing at #4) , you can deck us all out in pirates gear?
xxl for me so i can my catching gear on underneath. gb7 has made a lot of threats and i’m worried he can’t remember which ones he was kidding on
m, I assume you meant for your second team to be Red Sox?
“Let me see if I got this right. The right field dimensions are making balls fly out to left field? Because the numbers are double in left, too.”
m-
Take a look at this site, it claims the LF fence dimensions are shorter too:
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ark-10299/
I think the Accuweather folks were just focusing on RF.
SJ44-
Congratulations on Tony!
SJ
I agree with you, in that not every game matters. When a Pitcher says he isn’t going to look at what went wrong the doomsayers here take it to mean that he doesn’t think he did anything wrong. But that is not the case, AJ will look at what he does right and try to emulate that again. It is a more positive way to look at things. If AJ had never pitched correctly before then the evaluation of what went wrong may be relative.
Beckett pitched great. No pressure and he bounced back from being pummeled the last time the Yankees saw him.
Just as a side note, in 1961 a star Yankee hitter had only 1 homerun in the whole month of April. Casey had put Roger Maris at 3rd in the batting order with Mick batting behind him. There was a furor in Yankeeland. Roger went on to hit 61 Homeruns that year. What I’m trying to say is what SJ was aluding too, in baseball the season is a marathon not a sprint. Sure every game counts, but they don’t all matter the same. The season is more important than a game, unless it is the last game. LOL! Take a breath! When I look at a lineup, I consider who is hot and who will be soon. AJ will be soon. Even though there is panis from all the chicken-littles, AJ knows he is a great pitcher and he will dominate this year still. Besides, we wouldn’t appreciate the team if they always won. LOL! We’d probably run the Coach out of town if that happened. LOL! Like the Yankees did Casey! & Torre! LOL! Enjoy the moments. See the good.
0-6 against the *Red Sox* is not the same as 0-6 against the Royals or even the Orioles.
Silly random question for the people who know the Yankee system. Do the long hair/facial rules apply to the minor league teams as well?
I guess ideally, then, teams should win 95-97 games to start the season.
Of course every game counts. But as the season comes to its end, the chance to make up for losses gets smaller. Early in the season, there is still time to regroup and accummulate wins. Towards the back end of the season, there is more urgency because the chance for error is a lot smaller. They are not more important in September or less important in April. It has more to do with the timing and perception of still having wiggle room.
It will be interesting to see how things go with Heathcott. Maybe someone can explain to me the Yankees’ fascination with injured prospects. He is very talented, just has a bad knee and shoulder. If healthy I can see him moving quickly because there aren’t many OF prospects in his way.
Congrats to SJ, Tony and the family. Lotsa coin headed to them. Funny the Yanks ended up with a catcher anyway.
RayVT, well said.
Doreen, that’s it exactly.
My point is don’t worry, we have time.
SJ
Congrats on Tony!!! I wish everyone the best!
Congrats, SJ… and thanks for all the beind the scenes info
Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles (god rest his soul), could see that the Dimensions were slightly off. There is no gap in Right Field any longer and clearly the fence is lower and straighter, jutting out from the corner of the right field foul pole and it was indeed to accomodate that manual scoreboard.
I think the Yankees have to move back that Right Field somehow next season and raise the fence. I don’t know why the fence was even made lower in the first place.
To move back the Right Field Fence it will require them to remove some of those seats that jut out from the bleachers and are connected to the lower teir of right field. That seems petty arduous to do. So in the least they have to raise that fence. We should have known what was up when Nick Swisher kept scaling it at every chance.
“0-6 against the Red Sox is not the same as 0-6 against the Royals or even the Orioles.”
Well I will agree with that. That’s pretty obvious
“My point is don’t worry, we have time.”
Thanks for your concern but I’m not worried.
Hey SJ-
Congrats! Dont know if you follow John Heyman on Twitter but his last post may interest you:
“SI_JonHeymanpirates say signability wasnt main factor in picking bc catcher tony sanchez. yet theyve already signed him. hmmmm”
I liked Stan Van Gundy when the Magic played the Cavs before games six:
Reporter: Do you approach this games as if it’s a game seven, with that urgency?
Van Gundy: No, it’s game six. I could count. It’s not game seven.
Such is our point. These are not elimination games or must wins right now. In September they will be. Like the Magic, winning game six would be nice, but it’s not a must win because game seven is sitting right behind it. Only when we lose that is there a problem.
Patrick,I mean this loss is no big deal type of worry.
WYH,
Thanks for that. So are the “dimensions” the same or not? The shape certainly looks different (and decreased the field of play by more than a few sq. feet). The question is how many rows back until it’s the same as OYS? When balls are being hit 10-15 rows back, you’ve got to consider it legit, no?
The reason why people are always disagreeing on whether a win early season is as important as a win later on in the season is often because people are arguing about different things.
It’s a complicated subject because it’s an example of a conditional probability and conditional probabilities can be very tricky to think in terms of because they are contingent.
Sure everyone would rather win a key late season game than game one.
On the flip side the only reason why the Red Sox have finished higher in the standings than the yankees the past two seasons was because they got off to much hotter starts.
The Red Sox made the playoffs last season and the yankees didn’t becuase of the games that were played in April and May more than those in August and September.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C.....robability
who is Stevie Wonder?
Obviously all games count the same but divisional games MEAN more because you are not only adding a win, you’re hanging a loss on a division rival. 0-6 vs Boston stinks, but it’s obviously not fatal. If the Yanks had won all six they’d be taking orders for post-season tickets.
I’m tired of this subject and I’m moving on. Van Gundy is a moron, Game 1 is as important as Game 7. It still counts as one win or one loss.
Tonight’s game is the same level of importance as last night’s game. It’s as important as a game in September vs the Sox. I’m sorry but this is just getting stupid.
Stadium dimensions: It looks to me that the Yankees “hit the spots” – the numerical dimensions as printed on the walls, but played with the spaces in between the dots, connecting the dots differently in the other stadium. So, they could say the dimensions were the same.
They probably wanted to optimize seating, because they did lose some seating in the other parts of the park. Then there’s the old-time manual scoreboard in RF.
I suppose no one did a study of how many balls were hit “between the dots” and where they landed. It would be a huge oversight if that is the case.
If they perceive this as a problem, they’ll make changes. But it will likely mean a loss of seats.
The question is how many rows back until it’s the same as OYS? When balls are being hit 10-15 rows back, you’ve got to consider it legit, no?”
m-
This site shows the location of where all HRs hit in Yankee Stadium have landed this year:
http://www.hittrackeronline.co.....e=ballpark
If you match it up with the other site I posted, it seems to show a number of HRs to LF this year would not have been homers in the old stadium.
So, we all agree? These 6 losses are terrible? Can we move on now?
a loss is a loss… they are all the same. not for the media and knuckleheads but for the standings they are all the same…
the mets won the season series agaisnt the phils last year, that means jack.
the worries should be wht you sat from burnett. he has more walks then every starter except carmona who got sent down.
burnett has been bad he is suppose to be a #3 starter at worst he has been a avg at best 5th starter, that should be your concern………..
I see what you mean CB.
The arguements are different.
I’m pretty sure I understand what you’re saying, though.
“who is Stevie Wonder?”
Ah, a blind musician
Patrick, game 1 is not as important as game seven! That comment makes NO sense. If you lose game one you have six more games you could possibly win instead!
sj, congrats to tony and your family. hopefully his mother will breath now.
the feeling of seeing all that pirates gear must be out of this world.
has tony been hitting with wood? how long does that transition take?
CB,
Teams like the Angels and Rays are 50-50 teams when evaluating players. More and more teams though are putting greater emphasis on run prevention.
For a catcher, they look at three things with regard to run prevention:
1. Blocking balls.
2. Framing pitches.
3. Throwing.
In those areas, Tony’s grades were as high as Posey’s and Weiters offensive grades. That was huge for him in the process.
I knew he wasn’t going to drop past KC at 12. He went there last week for a workout, 4 days after catching a 25 inning game, and hit 2 balls in the fountain in BP.
Seattle, Tampa, the Yankees and Colorado all really like him but, weren’t in position to take him. Colorado wanted an arm at #11 and probably got the steal of the draft.
As we got closer to draft day, although the mock drafts had him listed as a late first round pick, we knew from the contact we had with he was going to go much earlier than projected.
When other teams called yesterday morning, I felt real comfortable our position was solid.
All along though, the Pirates have been on him and have conducted themselves very professionally.
Small market franchises have to find other ways to win games. Speed, defense, and homegrown talent is really the only way they can go.
Their organization is really short behind the plate. If his bat holds up, he will move quickly, IMO.
All losses hurt until you step back up and win the next one. A loss in football is like 10 losses in baseball. 16 game season versus 162 games. That is why more emphasis is on every game in football along with the fact they play once a week. There is more time to disect each game in FB. In baseball you might have a game again that day or within 12 to 15 hours. It is more grueling.
We all love Mo because he is so positive. He keeps looking forward to his next time out in such a professional manner. The old Yankee’s were like that for the most part. They expected to win. Getting ones emotions under control really helps a player to focus on the finepoints in baseball. FB is more emotional, because it is more brute strength. Some great atheletes can channel the emotions into focus. I remember George Brett doing that. Ouch! But most can’t. Baseball is a rythym sport not brute emotions. Enjoy the ride!
“Each loss counts the same.”
so you would manage no different in the first game of the season as the last?
you would not bring in a starter say as a relief pitcher in an elimination game to ward off elimination?
you would play banged up stars in the first game of the season as much you would in an elimination game?
i get your point all games mathematically are equal, but the reality is some games have different consequences so the strategies used are different .
would you agree that not all games are the same situation?
maybe that’s the way out of the semantics logjam?
Patrick, read CB’s post. It’ll help explain what both sides are talking about.
We aren’t arguing if games against certain teams mean more, we are arguing about WHEN those games occur and if the month they occur in matters.
Games against the Red Sox mean the most, obviously. Games against NL teams mean the least.
When those games occur? Doesn’t matter one bit.
SJ44,
Congratulations once again on Tony going to the Pirates, I know I really don’t post here often, but I am glad that at least I know people who know people getting drafted. Makes me want to root for that person. I hope he does good in the minors and reach the majors soon.
randy l., I totally agree.
Pecota still ‘thinks’ the Yankees have a greater shot of making the playoffs than the Red Sox at this juncture regardless of the Yankees being 0-6 against their division rivals.
http://www.baseballprospectus......ddspec.php
So I’m pretty excited about our second pick. He’s from Bradenton, FL and worked out at the IMG Academies over there. I leave to work at IMG coaching summer ball on Saturday!!
“Patrick, read CB’s post. It’ll help explain what both sides are talking about.”
I read every post and I know all about conditional probability, I took statistics in college…
raymagnetic, great.
We’re a playoff team either way probably because of the wild card.
Patrick is right. At the end of the day, they all add up. But it’s nice to build a cushion. You can actually put teams out of contention in baseball. They start shutting it down, having fire sales, and giving their prospects playing time.
Patrick, randy and everybody else discuss the game importance issue-
Are you guys really debating this?
Isn’t it exactly the same argument over whether runs scored in the first inning are less important than runs scored in the ninth? And isn’t the answer to that, “it depends on the score, and whether you are arguing over the final score, or the relative increase or decrease of chance to win when the run is scored?
Patrick, all right.
We’re arguing different things.
I am rather bad at math and the conditional probability kind of confuses me. I THINK it means the odds of something happening after other things have already happened, which is what we’re all arguing here.
“maybe that’s the way out of the semantics logjam?”
You are right, it does. Mathematically one game means the same as another and that’s the way I’ve been looking at it. However, as you say, there are certain strategies you employ later in the season to win games that you wouldn’t use in April because there is risk involved when using those strategies.
I guess I see what you’re saying. Because there are fewer games left the risk is acceptable. You don’t want to burn out your pitcher in April by having him pitch multiple games on short rest but that risk is more acceptable later on because there are fewer games left.
I’d also like to throw out there that how a team does against another team in the season doesn’t foretell the outcome if they meet in the playoffs. Clean slate, new season, basically. Different game strategies. So, yeah, I want the Yankees to beat the Red Sox. But I always figure they’ll end up somewhere around the .500 mark against each other by season’s end. So they pretty much cancel each other out. So beating the Red Sox is an emotional thing.
Wave Your Hat, good point.
I’m having a good time debating this. It’s interesting and something to do.
Thanks for the kind wishes all.
He hasn’t signed with the Pirates yet. Signability though is a factor in these negotations.
You have to weigh things out according to the player you have.
If I’m Steven Strasburg’s uncle, I tell Scott not to even talk to the Nationals until August 14. He has huge leverage and he will get the best deal by waiting.
As Tony Sanchez’s uncle, I have to weigh whether leaving upwards of a million dollars on the table is worth it.
I made the decision its not. I believe the sooner a kid like Tony starts his career, the better off he is.
If you look at his career trajectory, he has gotten better each year he has played. He saw his biggest improvements in summer ball play.
So, why change that?
The overall goal is the make the majors. That’s where the real money is. The faster you can make the majors, the faster your arbitration/free agent clock begins.
I made the decision early on, and told every team, he was signing as long as the offer was “fair”. What was “fair” in my mind? Slot, the team paying his last year of college tuition, an invite annually to ML ST, and starting in full season A Ball.
The team that met those demands would have a leg up to sign him. The Pirates met them.
“Pecota still ‘thinks’ the Yankees have a greater shot of making the playoffs than the Red Sox at this juncture regardless of the Yankees being 0-6 against their division rivals.”
If I’m reading this right, they are showing the chances of the WC coming from the AL East are about 92%.
Patrick, exactly. We actually agree, we’re just not sure what we’re arguing about.
Isn’t baseball a great game though? The debates are endless. And the answers not so written in stone. I love it.
Great, now I need to look up the semantics logjam. Whatever that is.
SJ,
Are you Tony’s official “advisor”? Does he have an agent as well?
What do you think the chances of our two picks being signed? I would think in Slade’s case, college is not looking very appealing.
Hey Pete, what’re rour thoughts on our mathematical discussion of baseball strategy?
Sutcliffe on with Brandon Tierney. Says he never said Alex was tipping pitches to Tex.
Said Tex and Alex asked to speak with him last night and said they are not tipping and Sutcliffe implying they are is irresponsible because another team could believe it and get one of them thrown at because of it.
Sutcliffe told them he never said that. Said he was just illustrating that the catcher was setting up too soon and how he had seen people tip pitches because of that but never accused Alex and Tex of it.
Sutcliffe told them he would clarify that on the air tonight.
Randy,
I’ll have to check to see if the Pirates sent white golf shirts. Even I won’t be caught dead wearing a black golf shirt in Florida in July! lol
Rebecca,
Junior year of HS is when I felt Tony had a shot. I knew he needed college and he needed to lose weight. However, I sensed a dedication to his craft few kids have at 16.
He really WANTED this. Everybody dreams of being a major league player. However, he worked at it.
For 6 years, he never missed a Saturday catching or hitting session with the instructors I lined up for him. Not one.
That’s pretty amazing.
There days he was bogged down with the flu, throwing up on the side yet, still made his session.
You don’t see that in a lot of kids.
Also, the guys that worked with him, Bobby Ramos, now bullpen coach of the Rays, and Pete Griftol, now farm director of the Mariners (both former ML catchers) told me he had special skills behind the plate and the ability to be a professional player.
Since I knew those guys personally, I knew it wasn’t BS.
He kept working on his weaknesses and got better each year.
When you see that, you take the shot and see where it goes.
“In those areas, Tony’s grades were as high as Posey’s and Weiters offensive grades. That was huge for him in the process.”
SJ,
That is fascinating. Never would have thought teams would be doing that kind of evaluation and leveling between bats and gloves.
We saw the shift towards better defense this offseason. There’s a reason why Abrue, Dunn, etc, etc, got far less on the market than they thought.
And it’s true – when you look at what differentiates players clustered at the top rungs of production – defense makes an enormous difference.
Good for Tony and good for him working so hard to improve his defense.
And I know you know this but forget what people are going to say about overdrafting, etc.
Something people constantly do is to underestimate how hard it is to get any offensive production out of the catcher spot.
Last year Geovany Soto was a more valuable offensive player than Ryan Howard.
Was he a better offensive player? Of course not. Was he a more valuable one? He was and that’s because it’s more difficult to find a catcher who hit like Sots last year than to find a 1b that could hit like Howard did.
The supply of talent at any position and it’s requirements have to be taken into consideration. Can’t look at offensive production in a vacuum.
Tony could put up offensive numbers that out of context may not look great and still in fact be an all star.
That’s the way catching is.
SJ,
Congrats! Just finished reading some interviews Tony had after the draft, and a few before, and the kid seems well-spoken and thoughtful. I was wondering how his grades are? What he studied? Or, since grades can sometimes deceive, more broadly speaking, how much his intelligence, especially as he is a catcher, was taken into consideration by the Pirate organization. Sounds like the dinners he had with those involved went well. I can imagine them thinking “he’s got tools, but as importantly he has the ability to think.” Jumping ahead a bit, but after Tony’s successful career, hope I’m still around breathing and can cheer him on as he manages the Yankees to some more championships. LOL.
M – If I was going to coach at IMG LAST Saturday, maybe I could help, but I’m leaving THIS Saturday …. when I get there I’m definitely going to ask around about the kid and I’ll post if I hear anything worth sharing.
Why is this Sutcliff/A-rod/Tex thing even an issue? Last I checked it isn’t against the rules for a teammate to try and steal signs for another teammate.
Doreen,
I don’t know about that. Sutcliffe pointed it out, they had a “whistle” (quite loud, like the mic was in the on-deck circle), and they showed Alex giving a hand gesture to
Tex in the clubhouse. The one where you give the chef when you bite into the best chateaubriand you’ve ever tasted?
SJ
I like that! Fair!! Fair is not equal as you pointed out with Steven Strasburg.
I know we all want the Yankees to kill the Roid Sox, but guess what come September the Sox may not even be a playoff team. Tampa or Toronto & NYY may be the teams fighting for 1 or 2 slots. So how could an April May or June game matter the same? In order to matter more, one would have to know the outcome first. Logic is often overlooked. BTW, a game against the Twinkees might matter more than one against the Roids Sox come September.
“Why is this Sutcliff/A-rod/Tex thing even an issue? Last I checked it isn’t against the rules for a teammate to try and steal signs for another teammate.”
Patrick,
It’s a real issue for Alex and Tex. I couldn’t believe that broadcast when Sutcliff kept yapping about his stupid speculation – speculation which he framed in ways which were very confusing and suggested that he did think they were tipping pitches.
It’s a real issue because if word gets out that Alex is tipping pitches to Tex both Tex and Alex are going to get hit – a lot.
It was completely irresponsible of Sutcliffe to suggest that because it could have gotten Alex and Tex hurt.
People tip pitches to the guy at the plate all the time but when teams figure that out then guys get hit.
Joe T,
You’re talking about the kid from Bradenton, no? Anything you can share would be great. I’m sure there will be lots of talk as img is in the business of putting kids in professional sports.
I’ve heard of their tennis academies (who hasn’t?) and some golf kids go there as well, how does it work? Is it one big campus? Or are these different academies. And are you seriously telling me that people send their kids to img because they’re baseball phenoms?
Love how you call them the “Roids Sox”. What does that make the Yankees?
M,
I was one of 3 advisors. I worked with Aces (Sam and Seth Levinson, Posada’s agents) to assist in the negotations.
I think the Yankees will sign both picks. I don’t see an issue in getting either guys signed.
I don’t know much about Murphy. I do think Slade is the kind of athlete lacking in the Yankee system at this year.
At this time, not at this year. Sorry for the typo.
SJ: That’s incredible. It really is.
Someday in the future we’ll have to organize a LoHud outing to Pittsburgh…
SJ,
That’s terrific. Team “Tony” did well. Was mom one of the advisors? She needs her cut, too!
I saw video of Slade, he looks quite small. Doesn’t even look 6’1″. But quite stocky. It’ll be fun to learn more about these kids.
It’ll be great to sign them and not lose the picks.
Doris from Rego Park
New Roid Yankees! What else! LOL!
Doris from Rego Park
I only said it because the Roid Sox are always so pure per ESPN.
SJ,
Murphy is a Florida kid and a Miami commitment. If you have a chance try to get us a scouting report!
m
Sutcliffe denied that. Said how could he hear a whistle from the press box three levels away from the batters circle.
When asked if the book allegations had anything to do with his accusations, he said he never accused Alex and Tex of anything.
ESPN national is blacked out in NY so I didn’t hear the broadcast but if he did make the statements that were attributed to him, he is running from them now.
M – yeah the place is HUGE … really really nice campus. When I went to check it out I wanted to move in right away, it’s incredible. The baseball fields are professional quality, I’ll definitely take some pictures and post them somewhere for you to see.
I checked out the tennis area a little bit quickly, some BIG BIG names went through there. The Pendleton school is on the same campus as the IMG academies. They actually run the school like a college where they don’t necessarily have school from 9-3 like a normal school – the classes are run around the sport they play. Really cool and a lot of fun.
Former Yankee Steve Farr is actually one of the instructors
IMO, tonight is the first absolute must win game of the season. We can’t lose another series to the red sawwwks.
SJ, what are your thoughts on Tony being overdrafted? Did that affect negotiations on either side?
Dimensions vs. wind: having just been at the stadium, Terrace level, 3rd base side, can say for certain that there is a wind-flow through from the outside of the stadium in. It was not just a slight breeze, it was a consistent flow of air straight toward right-field. I’m not saying the dimensions aren’t also playing a part, but the wind could certainly be as well.