Pleading the fifth with Cano
-
-
- July
- 1
-
Robinson Cano has not not driven in a run since time began.
Or June 17, it only seems like since time began. When Mariano Rivera has more RBI than you do in the last nine games, something is amiss.
Cano is hitting .300 after getting a couple of hits last night. But he’s now at .213 with runners in scoring position, .190 with runners in scoring position and two outs. With a runner on third and less than two outs, he’s hitting .188.
These things happen. But these things do not need to happen to the No. 5 hitter. We applaud Joe Girardi for his lineup discipline this season after last year’s lineup roulette. But it could be time to get somebody else behind A-Rod.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, July 1st, 2009 at 1:18 pm by Peter Abraham.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
Josh Thomson
Francessa made a good point…. Joba’s ERA is good because the Yankees are so cautious with him. They never let him get beat up and always yank him when he is in trouble late and thus, his ERA looks good. They always take him out after 100 pitches and don’t push him to see what he is made of. Like the Mets game, he was taken out after 4 innings/100 pitches. Why not let him start the 5th?
Joba’s leash is so short that it is no wonder his ERA is so low.
I thought of an “out-of-the-box” lineup yesterday.
Jeter
Swisher
Tex
A Rod
Damon
Posada
Cano
Matsui
Melky
Big deal Cano and Matsui hit back-to-back. The rest of the lineup is staggered lefty-righty. I think WAY too much emphasis is placed upon staggering the lineup. Having 2 lefties together won’t kill your chances, especially when the two lefties hit lefty pitching quite well.
Swish has the OBP for hitting 2nd and Damon has the power (at least this year) to hit 5th.
thats bs, thats happens to every starter not named cc or halladay
on cano yet he not a 5th hitter, he has into bad luck, but he not ready
A-greed. Cano’s ground ball rate paired with those numbers you listed Pete are reason enough to get him out from behind the 4 hitter. Eventually (if not already) pitchers will pitch around A-Rod knowing Mr. DP is lurking behind him.
I think he needs to prove he can hit in those clutch situations before knighting him our #5 hitter. I think the 6-7 range would be reasonable.
It is time for Cano to be either moved up to 2nd or down to 6th or 7th. I know Girardi likes a balanced righty/lefty line-up but Cano is killing us with all those runners LOB. Why not swap Damon for Cano and see what happens. Johnny has been swinging a good bat lately.
Chet
i agree miggs
Cano’s too busy smile’in
“Joba’s ERA is good because the Yankees are so cautious with him. They never let him get beat up and always yank him when he is in trouble late and thus, his ERA looks good”
Does CC get extra credit, then, for the times he was left in games and gave up a few more runs when the BP should have been in there? Your ERA is what it is. Of course Joba would have a higher ERA if they left him in for 130+ pitches every game. So would every pitcher in baseball.
miggs,
Some interesting points, but I don’t believe for a second that Joba’s not competing. How can he not try his best?
I think he is, and it’s still not what it was last season.
There’s gots to be a reason. The shoulder? mechanics? Leg strength? Something personal weighing on his mind? NYS?
Lots of things going on here. Joba is by no stretch of the imagination doing a bad job. But we’ve seen better from him, and I think that concerns a lot of people. Worry might be a better way of putting it.
In some ways, we’re seeing a little bit of what happened to Wang. Where we know something’s wrong, but pinpointing the problem and fixing it may take time.
A lot of people say he’s only 23, and give him time. Absolutely true. But Joba’s different and I don’t think this is part of the up and down struggles of a young pitcher.
________________________________________________________
I don’t see why they just can’t flip Posada & Cano. On days that Posada’s not in the lineup then Cano can “play” in the 5th spot.
I’m torn on this issue.
In one sense I’m more than ready to pull the plug and put Cano in the 7 hole where he seems to thrive. I’d rather him hit .330 down there and not have the pressure of batting behind Arod who teams are going to start pitching around again very soon.
At the same token, I get that the Yankees are trying to make him develop into a better run producing hitter and they are hoping that by forcing him into this spot it’s going to make it happen.
If the team can keep winning with him in the 5 hole it’s a moot point for now.
If those runners he’s consistently leaving on base in big spots cost the team wins though, I’d rather see Posada and Matsui in the 5 spot.
They’ll GIDP as much as Cano but they’ll also get that sac fly more that Cano who loses his batters eye with guys on base and swings at unhittable pitches.
The reason I am trying to discredit that list is that its complete bunk. Certainly some of those players probably exist on the real list, but you said it yourself, ‘oh it has the names of all the players I had suspicions about!’ Everyone wants to be right, but you’re just giving traffic to a crappy website for a crappy unconfirmed list that isn’t even presented correctly (missing 1 name).
its just like the mitchell report ‘leaks’ that turned out to be completely untrue.
Its one thing to be a stupid baseball fan and say things like ‘Oh wow ben zobrist leading the league in slugging? more like ben roidbrist, am I rite?” , its another thing to parrot a certainly false list as if it has any weight to it.
I posted this 3 articles ago:
94. Albert Pujols
95. Ken Griffey Jr
96. Mariano Rivera
97. Derek Jeter
98. Bernie Williams
99. Paul O’Neil
100. Tino Martinez
101. Pedro Martinez
102. Randy Johnson
103. Greg Maddux
104. Alex Rodriguez (Gasp!)
Look, a list… on the internet, unconfirmed but the source is good. what now?
jeter
damon
teixeira
rodriguez
posada
cano
swisher
matsui
cabrera
its THAT simple..
This list isn’t going to pick up any steam. Debunking it won’t help make it go away either. The internet has a life all on its own.
Pete, you know why he isn’t hitting in those situations? Luck. There is no such thing as clutch skill. It’s a random variation that Cano’s doing poorly this year in high-leverage situations while Melky’s doing so well. If you want to argue that Posada’s a better hitter than Cano and thus should hit fifth, that’s fine (although lineup construction doesn’t make that much of a difference in the long run), but RISP splits are among the biggest load of crap for evaluating hitters. They tell you what happened, but they give absolutely no insight into why something happened, nor do they help predict what will happen in such situations in the future.
Let’s mix it up:
Jeter
Damon
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Posada
Montero
Cano
Swisher
Cabrera
From the previous thread:
Fandom July 1st, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Francessa made a good point…. Joba’s ERA is good because the Yankees are so cautious with him. They never let him get beat up and always yank him when he is in trouble late and thus, his ERA looks good. They always take him out after 100 pitches and don’t push him to see what he is made of. Like the Mets game, he was taken out after 4 innings/100 pitches. Why not let him start the 5th?
Joba’s leash is so short that it is no wonder his ERA is so low.
————-
No, Francesa doesn’t have a good point at all. He’s full of BS.
Girardi pulls all of his pitchers when they accumulate 100+ pitches. Joba is not at all the only one.
Sabathia is the only guy Girardi really trusts to throw 110+ pitches and he may now be a little guyshy about leaving him out there that long given his bicep tendinitis against the Marlins.
“If the team can keep winning with him in the 5 hole it’s a moot point for now.”
Some may suggest they are winning DESPITE him being in the 5 hole. Can’t let the end justify the means. If you can put someone better suited to the 5 hole, and would seem virtually impossible that you can’t, then you do it.
keep him in the 5 he’ll adjust.
As for Joba, what does he think will happen if they flip him and Hughes? Hughes pitches even more inconsistently as a starter, and Joba does as well as Hughes is doing now, maybe? Geez.
I totally agee with Pete, Posada should be the fifth batter.
I agree there is no clutch skill, but it isn’t just luck with Cano’s poor performance with RISP. He seems to get more anxious and less selective when he has RBI opportunities. Perfect example was his K last night when he swung at a pitch above his shoulders. He has been much more patient this year with nobody on base. He just needs to carry it over.
I, for one, think this team will be at its best with Cano hitting 5th. But, as yet, he hasn’t adjusted to the role. Hopefully, as he is put in that situation more often, he will be able to bring his talents to the 5 hole with men on base.
Damon should be the 5th batter on days where swisher is in the lineup.
Cano in his CAREER hits .263 with RISP (704 AB) and .236 with the bases loaded (89 AB). Stop acting like this is a small sample size.
For comparison, he hits .320 in his career with nobody on base (1325 AB).
In his career batting 5th, he has a .774 OPS (262 AB). Batting 6th, he has an .810 OPS (521 AB) and .883 batting 7th (756 AB).
Notice a pattern?
its really unfair to gardner that he sits now…he was playing very well and now has to ride the bench for an extended period of time?…i dont agree with it..but i want melky in there aswell…i would dh swisher more often then not…
miggs,
Saw your comment on the last thread.
The question is can he go back to being that electric guy if he doesn’t have his velocity?
I don’t think he’s holding back velocity on purpose.
I think most fans can adjust their expectations because lots of good pitchers “get away” with Joba’s current velocity.
But Joba needs to make adjustments if he wants to be a starter. Namely, less walks and more efficiency.
I know the coaches talk to him about this, and have told him to stop battling the catchers. How long until it kicks in?
And is he doing the pre-game “inning”? That just kills me, because in theory, he’ll tire out one innning earlier.
Cano’s approach changes with runners on base. I don’t think this is just random bad luck with him.
If you notice, Cano drives the ball to all fields with the bases empty. But he essentially turns into a pull hitter with runners on base.
We see him roll over pitches on the outside edge all the time with runners on base but he drives those pitches to the opposite field when the bases are empty.
That’s what he does and has done that for awhile. He’s never been a strong run producer and I have my doubts whether he ever will be.
Actually, he’s at his best with runners on first and third. He’s also really good with runners on third, less than two outs. Those are definitely RBI opps, and he doesn’t seem to let that anxiousness affect him then. There is no systematic failure in RISP situations; the only conclusion to draw is that it’s just random fluctuation.
this is a guy who hit w/ RISP in playoff baseball, had one of the biggest hits in the 08′ playoffs. He’ll adjust, even if it takes simulating RISP during his BPs. Keep him in the 5.
Girardi will rotate Gardner into the lineup and get him his AB’s with Swisher getting tonight off.
Cano was fine with runners on base in his hot start, no?
Didn’t he get a big hit last night?
I’m not too worried about Cano.
That’s a lot of random fluctuation over the course of his career.
“this is a guy who hit w/ RISP in playoff baseball, had one of the biggest hits in the 08? playoffs.”
‘08 playoffs?
Baltimore confidence ooooozing over
Afternoon AL East baseball today. No score in the TB/TOR game.
Beckett walks Roberts, and he promptly steals 2nd. No outs.
m-No, he didn’t get a big hit last night.
And I’m not worried about him, just convinced he should be out of the five hole.
“Francessa made a good point…”
when francesa makes a good point… i’ll eat my hat, with my head inside it.
Kevin S-
If you go to baseball reference and look at Cano’s splits hitting with bases empty, with men on, and with RISP, for his career, this year, last year and every individual year in Cano’s career, you will discover there’s a pattern. Cano hits very well with bases empty, and substantially less well with men on and with RISP. Pretty much the only exception to the pattern was 2007, when he hit about the same with bases empty and with RISP, less well with men on.
Sure, it could be random fluctuation, but the odds seem pretty low to me when there’s that much consistency over a career.
Most Yankees fans was saying not to bat Cano 5th a month ago.
And onto things that REALLY matter. Felix Pie was clearly safe!
Tor & Boston both up 1-0.
Just imagine the possibilities if Boston loses this afternoon…
I think Beckett has himself in a mental twist either worrying about the fact that there is no bullpen to pitch if he gets tired because they all threw 500 pitches last night – or in the alternative, that there IS a bullpen there to pitch if he gets tired.
Actually, I think it may have more to do with pitch selection IMHO. Cano has gotten used to swinging at the first pitches and it works for him when the bases are empty. The problem is that with men on base pitchers tend to approach him more carefully which in turn causes him to swing at slop.
Long needs to sit down with Cano and discuss these kind of things with him.
I wish “Francesca” or any variation of it was on the “block that post” list…
BTW sucks for the Cards DeRosa might hit the DL he felt a tweak in his wrist after yesterday’s game.
According to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool our ideal lineup is:
A-Rod
Teixeira
Jeter
Damon
Swisher
Cano
Posada
Matsui
Gardner/Cabrera
Aren’t small sample sizes fun!
sometimes when Pete makes a post and it really spurs a conversation like today’s Cano discussion i think he must feel like Master Davey Hogan – he stands back and looks upon what he created – a complete and total barf -o – rama.
I don’t mind Francessa. He’s an idiot, but he represents what the avg. not crazy like us fans are thinking about baseball.
This topic has been thoroughly discussed over the past month. Cano obviously does not belong there. It was apparent from day 1. People have been confused about Cano because of his hot start. Forget about that, it’s long gone, put him at 7 or 8.
I don’t know if this has been discussed on the threads, has anyone seen footage of Mo’s first save? I didn’t see anything on YES or MLB.com. You’d think somebody would have it somewhere, or did MSG burn all the Yankee tapes???
Wave Your Hat –
I’ve got B-R bookmarked, and have been on Cano’s page for the past fifteen minutes. You’re ignoring the fact that he’s at his best in two specific RISP situations. That’s what I meant by no systemic pattern, thus rejecting the “it’s a mental thing” argument. Short of a legitimate reason for a vast difference (such as guys like Ortiz and Giambi facing shifts or not depending on the number of baserunners), there’s no reason to draw the conclusions that have been drawn. Splits are dangerous, and this is why. Personally, I don’t like using anything outside of platoon and H/R splits to say anything about a player’s situational abilities.
“‘08 playoffs?”
07′
when do we get to dump matsui?
I posted this on a previous thread.
CF Gardner
SS Jeter
LF Damon
3B Alex
1B Tex
DH Matsui
C Posada
2B Cano
RF Cabrera
Mix in swish at RF and DH with Swisher, Matsui and Melky starting about 2/3 of the time. Go back to old lineup when Gardner or Damon is out.
Matsui’s contract is up at the end of the year, I believe
could there be a fatigue factor with Cano? he played winter ball, and then rolled right into spring training and into the season. no break for the body and mind
Another oddity with hitting trends… I noticed Alex and several others I’ve researched do their worst when there’s a runner at 2B. Must be guys who are easily distracted… that couldn’t be Cano could it?
I wonder if any player has gotten so angry (other than Everett head butting the ump, or whatever he did) that he has actually attacked an ump. I watched Ortiz outweighing Gucchione by about 300 pounds and standing about 6 inches taller, holding that bat in his hand, and for a minute there I thought it might be Gucchione’s last game!
Thats a silly lineup in my opinion. Damon doesn’t get on base enough to sit in the 3 hole. This also takes away from potential late game ABs by Tex cause he is hitting too far down.
And having Gardner-jeter-damon, thats like 3 leadoffy type hitters in a row when you really only need 1.
Cano is having an excellent year with no men on base.
Trish:
Spittin’ Roberto Alomar.
We should be allowed to use ghost runners when cano is up
trisha,
Are you watching? Gameday showed PaPI swinging through 88 mph heat on the outside. What was Papi’s beef?
“Cano is having an excellent year with no men on base.”
exacyly he’ll adjust. He also has a hurt wrapped wrist fwiw.
that’s 2
Actually I don’t know if he’ll adjust.
The pitchers walk Arod more with Cano being behind him,it’s for now, an easy out.
So I was having this discussion with a real sharp Sox fan, Mo’sflatcutter, and he was pointing out to me that the Sox pitching and pen are the best there are. Told me it’s too bad the Yankees don’t fashion their team around the same kinds of players!
I couldn’t disagree because you know I said I hadn’t seen the drama of taking a 9-run lead into the 7th and then losing the game, nor watching Beckett look very average in quite a while! Mo’sflatcutter, I bow to you.
As for contracts… Matsui, Damon, Pettite, Nady and Molina are the notable expiring deals. That’s roughly $ 40 Million depending on the incentive levels Andy reaches.
If Cano’s wrist is the issue, he needs to rest it. Playing through it generally doesn’t help.
And bringing in Papi Cano wouldn’t hurt either.
Why listen to Francesa? He’s just trying to irritate Yankee fans and keep his ratings up. Where’s his “good point”? Why isn’t Wang’s era under 4.00 — he’s been removed before the 6th inning in almost all his starts. What about Pettite? He too is removed as soon as trouble brews — yet his ERA is higher than Joba’s.
Repost:
Top three games of the year, IMO, have all been AL East.
1. One of the best comebacks IMO in reg. season history as the Rays blow a 10 run lead in the final two innings, including being up by six with 2 down in the ninth.
2. The Orioles come back from 9 runs down vs. the Sox and set a record for biggest comeback with a last place team vs. a first place team.
3. The NY Mets shock the baseball world as Omir Santos hits a 2 out bottom of the ninth go ahead HR to give the Metsies the lead after a thrilling pitcher’s duel, then close it out with uncharacteristicly great defense.
And of course the Yankees have played a ton of great games, but I don’t think any are as good as these three.
Kevin S., stop making sense! There is no place on the internets for someone to use reasoned thinking, especially as relates to baseball. Of course its mental, no need to worry about stats that show otherwise.
What is it that i see and girardi dosen’t…. cano is NOT a 5 hitter and bruney isnt getting guys out in the 8th… Get cano out of the 5 spot and make hughes the 8th inning guy.
Joba needs a Eureka! moment.
He’ll have a nice July
“Must be guys who are easily distracted…”
Or guys who use the middle of the field and that closes up somewhat with someone holding a runner on 2nd?
Kevin S-
You are committing the fallacy of disaggregating the data too much. When you disaggregate data sufficiently, you can find almost anything you want, but it is misleading.
For instance, I presume you are looking at career splits for Cano. 1st and 3rd – 94 plate appearances in his career. Runner on third, less than 2 out – 160 PA’s.
Compare that to his career plate appearances for bases empty, men on and RISP – 771, 1392 and 1295. Those aren’t small samples. And the categories make sense – which focusing on two specific RISP situations out of many do not.
For instance, you quote his career .866 OPS with a runner on third, less than two out. What makes that different from a runner on third, less than two out, where his career OPS is .680? Why is a runner on first and third different from runners on fist and second, where he has a career OPS of .631?
Plus, go look at his splits for individual years. Sure, you will find some outliers, but don’t you see the overall pattern?
TIME FOR #27-I agree 100%.
In the spirit of “making up lineups that will never happen” here’s mine:
Jeter
Swisher
Tex
A-Rod
Damon
Posada
Cano
Cabrera
Gardner
This lineup maximizes Swisher’s strengths ( ability to get on base and see pitches) and covers up his weaknesses ( ability to hit with RISP)
Putting Damon in the 5 hole also makes sense to me.
He’s been one of the team’s best hitters with RISP, and would see a ton of RBI chances, hitting behing Tex and A-Rod.
It also makes sense because Damon’s power numbers are way up this year. Gone is the guy who used to routinely steal 30 to 40 bases.
It’s a good way to take advantage of one your best clutch hitters in Damon and move a guy out of the 5 hole in Cano who clearly has no business being there.
Wave Your Hat-Smart post!
rconn23-I kind of like that one.
Jerkface —
Damon’s OBP this year is .367 and Tex’s is .384. That’s not much of a difference and an incredibly “silly” argument on your part. Damon’s slightly lower number is offset by the reality that his OBP is more valuable because of his speed.
Not sure Gardner can handle leadoff, but why not find out? The number of AB Tex loses from # 3 to # 5 is not all that significant to me.
“PAtrick — I’m sorry drunk driving and killing someone while driving druink are not the same mistake. That’s like saying armed robbery and carrying an illegal firearm are the same “mistake”. ”
Yes they are the same mistake, and your analogy makes no sense.
If you drive drunk you are taking the chance that you could crash and kill someone. Do you think that Leyritz and Stallworth tried to hit people? Of course not. Whether you hit someone or not, it’s the same exact behavior.
Here is a better analogy. Someone has a gun, puts a blindfold on and fires into a crowd. Whether you hit someone or not doesn’t matter. It’s still the same behavior. There should be no distinction between Leyritz/Stallworth/etc and Joba/LaRussa/etc.
m- multitasking! Paying bills with calming entertainment in the background – the Sux game!
Ortiz was crying because he said he didn’t break his wrists and therefore shouldn’t have been rung up. I guess he thinks his bat action is so quick that nobody would detect how quickly he actually did break his wrists!!!
You can play with the numbers all you want.
Watch the games. He’s never been a good hitter when moved up in the order.
Doesn’t make him a bad player. He’s not.
He’s just not a good #5 hitter.
He’s more effective down in the order.
I suspect, as with Bruney, they will ho back to more comfortable and effective roles on the team after the ASB.
2-1 Baltimore after a Pedroia double. The hobbit is thrown out after trying to stretch it to three.
The Hobbit is also a HR and triple away from the cycle.
You’re putting our best hitter 5th, and I’d much rather Tex get any extra chances at the end of games when the lineup turns over for the last time than ALL 3 of jeter, damon, and gardner.
I would have Gardner leadoff sometimes, but putting 3 guys who arent going to hit for a lot of power together just doesn’t make sense at the top.
“When you disaggregate data”
I feel your pain, I hate when that happens to me, especially right after lunch!
The Sux are looking like keystone cops today.
Gameday is not being flattering to Beckett, who does not seem sharp.
I have it on television and he certainly isn’t on top of his game today.
I do think Posada should bat 5th, but I don’t think you can judge Cano on this year’s 90 ABs. It’s probably bad luck more than anything that he is 50 points below his career BA with RISP, sample size over 700 ABs. Posada is the superior option, but I don’t think you can take 9 games and say Cano is trash because anybody could have a bad 9 game stretch.
There is variance in baseball as evidenced Sunday night when Cano drilled the ball twice with the bases loaded and the ball went right at somebody. Even Jon Sterling understood this concept so I know you guys can too. The next inning, Posada hits a little flare and it falls in for a basehit. It’s not because Posada is “gritty” or “knows how to get the job done” it’s just variance that fell in for a hit and both of Cano’s went right at a defender.
Sui should bat 5th, Posada 6th, Cano 7th .
Sui is about to heat up now that they’re done with the NL.
When Sui sits, Posada 5th, Cano 6th.
Either way, ARod has a Vet behind him that will not swig at anything and everything thrown up there.
I much prefer jeter or gardner leading off with swisher @ 2, because
Jete/Gard , Swisher, Tex, A-rod are all going to be on base close to 40% of the time, and Damon-Posada 5/6 should be able to capitalize with RISP.
Swisher’s only job will be to keep the line moving to Tex and a-rod.
LOL! Leave Cano alone!! LOL!
In 1961 a guy named Roger batted 3rd and only had 1 HR for the whole month of April. Fans wanted Mick moved to 3rd and Roger moved to 5th or 6th in the lineup. But after a slow start, Roger ended up with 61 HRs for the year & his manager looked very bright. Cano is a good hitter. He has hit some shots that were caught & dinks that were hits/caught. The funny thing is if the defense is off or a batted ball finds grass or bleachers it is clutch. Clutch is a very misunderstood term. RBIs are tough as well to discern. A batter gets 2 hits with no one on base and makes 2 outs when someone is on base is batting .500 for the game yet is considered “Not Clutch”. A guy like Bucky Dent hits one ball in his life for a HR at an opportune time and he is considered clutch. Maybe luck has a part in it. LOL!
Is it me or do some of us actually look forward to watching Gardenhoser ABs now ? I mean his numbers are Pedroia like
Just wow. I can say that this certainly isn’t the Beckett we’ve had to watch of late. It happens. I will be the first to say the Sux have played some very good games. They aren’t as good as the Yankees, but they certainly aren’t a bad team. But Beckett looks pedestrian so far.
Let’s go Baltimore
~clap clap clap clap clap~
Let’s go Baltimore
Rayvt-But Mr. Roger’s career did not give him a statistical problem with batting w/RISP.
Robinson Cano needs to be removed from the 5th slot…Move Posada there, even though Matsui would have been the ideal choice, however it’s clear that his left knee is not able to sustain the drive to generate power…..Regardless Cano isn’t right in that spot for some reason….He thrives in the 7th spot….
Rayvt-Bucky Dent was considered clutch before that moment according to Sparky Lyle.
Ha ha “certainly not a bad team” is a bit of an understatement trisha, no?
I also don’t think you arrange a BA to accomodate Swisher. He’s not the guy you build the lineup around.
If Matsui gets hot, he’s a perfect #5 hitter.
You can’t stack the lefties. It hurt the Mariners bigtime last night.
You can set a lineup that has Cano out of the 5 spot and not stack the lefties.
Jeter, Damon, Tex, Arod, Matsui, Posada, Cano, Swisher, Cabrera or Gardner.
Wave Your Hat – My argument is that even RISP splits are disaggregating the data too much, hence saying the only splits I like are platoon and H/R. The reason I brought up the specific splits was to show that the variation amongst the RISP data made the RISP data itself unreliable. I do not think he has any special ability to hit with runners on first and third, as compared to other RISP situations; nor do I believe him to have an inability to hit in RISP situations in general.
1 out man on third for the O’s.
SA – last night they were chanting, “Let’s go Os”
Beckett seems to be bearing down.
“Is it me or do some of us actually look forward to watching Gardenhoser ABs now ? I mean his numbers are Pedroia like”
stop putting those
86w183, I think the line up is good,BUT Cano and Melky being that close to each other,feed off one another.Cano may mess up Melky.
Look at Tex and Arod,something is going on there too.Tex is not hitting all of a sudden.He (Tex) was a non factor in last night’s win.
Jeter batting after Gardner is good if Gardner is on second,because of Jeters likely GIDP.
Last night I missed Gardner’s lead off,because Jeter came alive,only in the 8th,with 2 huge game winning runs,but the game was a nail biter,and too close,until MO.
Hitting with bases empty, in his career Cano has 1392 PA’s, with a .320 BA, .353 OBP, .509 SLG.
Leading off an inning, he has 570 career PA’s, with a .321 BA, .344 OBP and .515 SLG.
Cano should bat first! His low-ish OBP is more than offset by his SLG. He’s a monster there!
“Ha ha “certainly not a bad team” is a bit of an understatement trisha, no?”
Depends on where you live!!!
brent-Tex has cooled off a bit but he was smoking line drives all over the park, eventually if you keep hitting balls that hard some are gonna fall in for hits.
“But Beckett looks pedestrian so far.”
He is not an ACE! Good thing the Yanks never traded for him!
I also don’t think you arrange a BA to accomodate Swisher. He’s not the guy you build the lineup around.
—
Its not about building a lineup around him, its about maximizing your strengths while limiting your weaknesses. Take the pressure off swisher or at the very least give him more pitches to drive infront of Tex. Damon should hit wherever you put him, and his ability to hit for average with good power and generally a good hitter with RISP makes sense for the 5 spot. I’d really like to see that lineup for a couple of series just to see what it does.
The bottom of the order is Posada,Matsui,Melky,Cano, or swap Cano and Matsui.
Lineup stuff, even if meaningless in the long run, is fun to stratergize about.
Heaven! I’m in heaven!
This is just wonderful. Beckett’s pitch count of course is going up. That usually means that the bullpen will be involved at some point…
He he he he he.
I would love to kidnap Nick Markakis. For the Yankees of course..
Well done hot stuff! 4-1 O’s
i <3 Nick Markakis
Markakis double. 2 runs score. Still one out, O’s lead 4-1. Forget what I said about bearing down.
Beckett’s at 50 pitches thru 2.1 innings. Not exactly giving his bullpen a chance to recover.
O’s 4-1 after markakis (!) battled Beckett for a double.
Kevin S-
With over a thousand PA’s with men on, over a thousand PA’s with RISP, and almost 800 with the bases empty, you have plenty of data.
And, in this case, the results seem supported by Cano’s year to year results, which by and large show similar results.
At some point it gets hard to explain away the data as random.
“Beckett seems to be bearing down.”
And has had a bowel movement on the field as a result!
I think the best choice moving forward would be something like this:
Damon
Swisher
Jeter
Rodriguez
Teixiera
Cano
Posada
Matsui
Cabrera/Gardner
Wait to they come to our house-
that game with BAL vs RS was awesome too because,Papelbon blew the save .Espn reported it as his first blown save,Not true!!
When you play Gardner everyday, he gets exposed. He is being used fine now. Rotate each guy and don’t overexpose them. If one gets hit, ride them until they cool off.
“Beckett’s at 50 pitches thru 2.1 innings. Not exactly giving his bullpen a chance to recover.”
Strategy on his part? Rather earn the L himself than turn it over to the pen and have them do it?
As soon as I said Beckett is bearing down, he gets hit. Hmmm…
Beckett overpowered Scott. Reimold will strike out.
It worked last time…
Swisher fits in the 2 spot or in the bottom third of the lineup. His OBP would allow him to excel from the 2 spot but I wouldn’t want him batting 4-6 because his average is so low. I want guys that can make contact on a consistent basis hitting 4-6 to drive more runs in.
I’d go with:
Jeter
Damon
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Matsui
Cabrera/Gardner
Good to see Beckett crashing back down to earth.
Ah, goodbye June, hello July, Mr. Beckett!
You can set a lineup that has Cano out of the 5 spot and not stack the lefties.
Jeter, Damon, Tex, Arod, Matsui, Posada, Cano, Swisher, Cabrera or Gardner.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Perfect.
Fandom-We have no idea if he’ll get exposed since he hasn’t played every day.
brent-ESPN can be really stupid sometimes.
And Papelbon has blown more saves than Mo.
Unfortunately, your best lineup won’t happen.
But imo, it has melky & gardner at the bottom with swish or matsui as the DH.
But they won’t put matsui on the bench
But I thought the Red Sox were 35-0 against sub .500 teams this season?
They never have issues with bad teams and never give games away.
Hmmmm, imagine that. Reality doesn’t jive with the myths we keep hearing about the invincible Red Sox.
SJ44,
I agree with you about not building a lineup around Swisher. Just think his weakenesses could be covered up in the 2 spot a bit better.
My lineup configuration has more to do with giving Damon more RBI opportunities in the 5 hole. In my opinion, he’s been the team’s most consistent hitter this season and certainly one of the most consistent with runners in scoring position.
Historically, Matsui has been one of the team’s best clutch hitters so the 5 spot for him would make sense. However, he’s been so streaky this year, he seems like the hitter most likely to be moved up and down the lineup.
Nice to see both the Rays and Red Sox losing, even though it’s still early in the game.
I would never hit Swisher second. He’s living proof that OBP is a vastly overrated stat (by some). Give me good hitters who can run at the top of the lineup and the Yanks have two of those (Jeter and Damon) and potentially a third in Gardner. Swisher can not run and thus his OBP is not as valuable as a guy who can.
But the bottom line is still hitting… and a .243 career hitter belongs in the bottom third of the order… or on the bench.
Any discussion about Jeter moving to the three hole? He batted there infrequently, but when he did, he handled it quite well. Have Jeter and Tex protect A-Rod, and when you stack those three together it will be difficult to get them all out in a row.
Yeah Franco, I heard stories…legends…impossible tales of how the Red Sox simply got the job done. Sure their lineup wasn’t as good-but they did the work.
And if you were sub 500? Might as well not show up.
Reality is sweeter than fiction.
66 pitches in 3 innings, brilliant
All this being said, this game is not over and the Red Sox may very well pull it out anyway.
C’mon O’s Bal 4 RS 1,yeah!!
David Wright you and your throws
I’d just like to point oout that the Mets defense is one of the worst defenses I have ever seen.
Brett DID play everyday early in the season…. he was named the starter out of Spring.
1 o in out.
The one good thing about putting Matsui 5th is that while he grounds out, its usually so slow other teams have a difficult time turning 2.
Fandom-We have don’t have a large enough sample size to know if that was just a slow start or a trend.
All of you seem to forget last year when in September he had his best month after being named full time starter.
So if CC gave up 4 runs in the first 3 innings of a game that followed a complete meltdown the night before in which the yankees blew a 9 run lead in the last third of the game how many CC is not an ace posts would we have?
BTW, All this statistical data everyone is quoting doesn’t reflect the base running skills of those on base in front of a hitter. Posada & Matsui & Giambi were often on base when Cano had opportunities to score a runner with an RBI. It probably would have been better if he had Gardner or Crawford or Upton in front of him and on base. Also, how many other guys have hit with runners in scoring position for the Yanks this year? Or even last year. Pitcher change the way they pitch as well when runners are in scoring position as well as managers changing the actual pitcher for a better match up. Cano is a good hitter. Perhaps he does press a little trying to drive in a runner. Who doesn’t? And clutch is an overused term that has very little meaning. Kind of like Swish’s clutch pitching performance!! No one scored on him! Doesn’t mean he is any good at it! LOL! That said, their are batters that hit better from a particular slot in the batting order. Soriano appears to like batting 1st more often and so did Bobby Bonds (Barry’s father). But maybe their tools were such that it helped them more to lead off. More fastballs & more pitches to hit.
I personally believe that everything balances out. Cano is a good hitter and he will go on a run soon. AJ is a good pitcher & I said when the weather gets hot so will he and he has. Things happen. Now Jeter is a headsy player so he helps to manufacture his own luck. Some players get hot and they are almost unstoppable. (Reggie, George Brett, Manny, Papi, ARod) Other times they look(ed) weak!
Remember when Cashman said our best lineup does not have Gardner in it? lol
Youk grounds out, Bay K’s. 2 down.
Think outside the box:
Cano
Swisher
Teixeira
ARod
Posada
Damon
Jeter
Matsui
Cabrera
Swisher can not run and thus his OBP is not as valuable as a guy who can.
But the bottom line is still hitting… and a .243 career hitter belongs in the bottom third of the order… or on the bench.
—
But the point of baseball is to not make outs and swisher makes the least amount of outs other than A-rod or Tex
The 1 and 2 hitters should get on base, they don’t need to ‘hit’, they need to get on no matter what.
“But I thought the Red Sox were 35-0 against sub .500 teams this season?
They never have issues with bad teams and never give games away.”
What’s funny is that the Red Sox are 8-0 against the Yankees but only 2 games up in the loss column. Which means they have 6 more losses than the Yankees do against the rest of baseball.
But of course, people just want to look at those 8 games and figure that the Sox are so good, they can’t possibly have tough losses against the Orioles, M’s, Braves, Nats, etc.
Brad Bergesen = stud
CB-Good point.
I always thought people expected too much of CC. We should expect an innings eater with an ERa around 3, maybe a little above. Nothing more.
I’d take CC over Beckett anywhere. As for the playoffs, I believe everything balances out. CC is too good not to have it show in the playoffs eventually.
Also statistically, Swisher is just as valuable as Damon in terms of ‘base running’ according to baseball reference.
He can go 1st to third and take an extra base, and often hits for extra bases.
His bad base running is a myth caused by some mistake plays close together.
Looks like Bay is in a slump now. Avg down to .265 and 3 K’s in his last 3 ABs.
Big popout fles out. Three down.
Did anybody see footage of Mo’s first career save?
Wigginton makes it 5-1. Booya!
HR Ty Wigginton! 5-1 O’s!
Gardner sparks the team, the team responds to his energy and passion. he needs to play everyday
“All this being said, this game is not over and the Red Sox may very well pull it out anyway.”
I guess that would have to be said of every team in every game, no matter the score, in the bottom of the 4th inning. There is nothing in the way the Sux are playing that would even cause me to begin to think it’s a strong possibility, including the homer Beckett just gave up – but I guess anything is possible as long as 27 outs have not been used up!
My guess is that the O’s have this game.
Boy is Beckett getting hammered.
According to the logic used with CC, aces don’t get hammered when their buullpen is tired.
trisha-Exactly. That can be said for every team in every game.
If baseball has taught me anything, it’s that the game is not over until the final out is recorded.
Stultus Magnus
July 1st, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Did anybody see footage of Mo’s first career save?
I’d like to see one of his starts on Yankee Classics
from hearing Buck talk yesterday he had at least one great one. ThAt would be cool
PS I don’t think games from a month ago are “classic”
nice….burrell gidp with the bases loaded!…i definitly want the jays to beat the rays…rays=long term threat
Wright 0-2 with 2 K’s. Maybe he should have gotten the day off after all.
Uncle-Never heard of instant classics before?
Beckett has given up 5 runs,how long before he’s yanked?
If a statistic is telling you that Nick Swisher runs bases as well as Johnny Damon then you know you have a statistic that has serious problems.
You can make up a metric for anything. Doesn’t mean that metric is measuring what it’s supposed to represent well.
If the Rays and Sox lose today can be a huge chance for us to gain ground.
“Gardner sparks the team, the team responds to his energy and passion. he needs to play everyday”
So Melky put them down last night
oh man, I wish I could be watching Beckett getting hit right now
I’ve learned through much disappointment not to count out the Sux until the last out of the game…but regardless, it’s nice to see them (particularly becket today and Papelbum last night) struggle a bit…
Beckett is battling out there… doesn’t have his best stuff but is keeping his team in the game.
I don’t care what Baseball Reference says, Swisher is not as good a baserunner as Johnny Damon. Any statistical analysis that even suggests he is can’t be considered legit.
You gotta stop trying to make him out to be more than he is.
That’s the biggest problem with Swisher lovers. They go overboard trying to make an average player an above average player.
He draws a lot of walks, has occasional power, doesn’t hit well with RISP, and is an average to below average defensive player and baserunner.
Doesn’t make him the worst player in the league and it also doesn’t make him an upper echelon player. He is what he is.
I think Beckett has been doing a wonderful job today.
I love how everybody says the Rays are the hottest team in baseball but everybody completely ignore the Yankees’ winning streak because apparently wins vs. the Mets don’t count.
as was said at the start, there is plenty of room for both Melky and Gardner to contribute this season and they have proven that completely right…it’s not one v. the other.
Cano as the #2 hitter, is dumb.
you want players who look at +++ pitches, at the top of the lineup. He lacks discipline.
however he doesn’t have to bat #5, either. The lefy/righty bullsh*t is beyond overrated
Brent, with a pretty depleted pen and their thinking that they can still come back, I bet they push him to keep going as long as he can.
Aardvark-No he’s not. He’s thrown a ton of pitches and is losing 5-1.
Of course Swisher is not as fast as Damon, but he isn’t slow. He can’t steal, but he can go 1st to third and can hustle out a double. He is also likely to score from 2nd on most things.
The metric uses play by play data. I wouldn’t use a misguided notion that swisher is giambi-esque on the bases as a reason to keep him out of the 2 hole.
Pete should set up a special game post for this game.
MARK ,yes yes on GARDNER!!
5-1 isn’t “keeping your team in the game”. Try again.
The Red Sox are like every other team in baseball. They will have their slumps over the course of the year.
Slumps just aren’t limited to the Yankees.
The children need to remember that the next time the Yankees slump during the season.
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN
July 1st, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Uncle-Never heard of instant classics before?
Heard of ‘em just don’t agree with what they call classics now
The object of baseball is not to “avoid making outs, it’s to SCORE RUNS.
A guy who walks four times and does not score has not done much for his team. A guy who hits a 2-run HR in a 1-4 effort does.
When your analysis of offensive baseball simply comes down to OBP you expose the weaknesses in your understanding of the game. To look at some goofy stat and claim that Swisher and Damon are equally valuable/effective on the bases takes you a few notches lower.
Swisher in the 2 spot makes sense, Damon doesn’t steal often anyways and you don’t really wanna steal with your 3rd and 4th hitters up. He will get on base. Everyone knows he will get on base.
Put guys on base for your big hitters, thats baseball.
What an at bat for Kotsay and Bergesen. Bergesen wins.
Uncle Ellsworth-I kind of like watching reruns of games I had fun watching.
Furthermore, Swisher’s hardly an “average” player. He’s on pace for a three-win season, which makes him a solid regular (average is about 2 WAR). His defense in the corners is maybe a smidge below average, and his bat is above-average, even for a corner outfielder. He’s not a superstar, but he’s certainly an above-average player.
I would really like a sox loss today.
going up to the Cod this weekend between last nights loss and a beckett loss(i hope) i’ll be able to hear the sox fans losing it – it kinda sounds like a lobster when you put it into a vat of boiling water
Bay has had a terrific year, but anyone who’s followed his career knows he’s not as good as the numbers he put up the first couple of months.
He was due for a correction.
Bay is good. Very good. But he’s a poor defender and when he’s not given a steady diet of fastballs, the holes in his swing are revealed.
Any team that’s thinking about giving him 5 years $75 million – if that’s what the market bears – should really think twice.
That includes the Yankees.
Uncle Ellsworth July 1st, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Stultus Magnus
July 1st, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Did anybody see footage of Mo’s first career save?
I’d like to see one of his starts on Yankee Classics
from hearing Buck talk yesterday he had at least one great one. ThAt would be cool
PS I don’t think games from a month ago are “classic”
=================
Yeah, I was thinking they’d show his first save or a start as a “classic” game, but I haven’t seen anything. I wonder if MSG destroyed all the games???
And yes, “classic” games aren’t walk-offs from 1 month ago.
The object of baseball is not to “avoid making outs, it’s to SCORE RUNS.
When your analysis of offensive baseball simply comes down to OBP you expose the weaknesses in your understanding of the game. To look at some goofy stat and claim that Swisher and Damon are equally valuable/effective on the bases takes you a few notches lower.
–
A team that makes the least amount of outs will most likely score the most amount of runs. A team with an OBP of 1.000 will never stop scoring runs
My point with the metric is that Swisher is not an abomination on the base paths. Those metrics measure tangible things, how often they go 1st to third, and how often they take extra bases. Those are tangible.
Jerkface,
He’s slow. He really is. Its a bad metric.
Watch him run the bases. He isn’t even an average runner.
A guy can score from second on a hit when OF’s play as deep as many of them do these days. That’s not a sign of speed or good baserunning. Its a sign of bad OF positioning, which almost every team (except for the Rays) seem to employ these days.
Go back and look at tapes from Yankee games from the 70’s and 80’s and look at how shallow OF’s play compared to today.
Even in last nights game, I was shocked at how deep the Mariners OF’s were playing in the late innings.
A sign of the times it seems.
SJ44, I think you are generally right; but you are underselling Swisher’s power. He’s on pace to hit 30 HRs this year and hit 102 HR’s in his four full seasons in the MLB. That’s more than “occassional power.” Robinson Cano has “occassional power.”
Is Swisher upper-echelon? Of course not. But he is a legit power threat.
Yanks have won 6 in a row
Rays, coming into today, have won 7 in a row.
So technically, the Rays ARE the hottest team in the league. Maybe not after today, but the have been.
Wait
fair enough
Boy, would it not be nice to see the Sox sink to 3rd place by the allstar break!
It would probably take the Yankes and Rays going 10-2 but it is possible.
Mike-Why? Because they won the day before we did?
We’re both really hot teams.
Brandon,
Saying Gardner should play, doesn’t mean it has to be at melky’s expense.
Nady’s not here, so Swisher’s the starting RF. Less of Swish in RF is not necessarily a bad thing.
Damon needs periodic rest and gets nicked up, too.
Gardner & melky in the OF is a good thing. They should both be out there, more times than not.
Trish from your mouth to Francona’s ears.Tday the O’s have their number.
Uncle E -
But they do need some new material.
The YES Network definition of classic is a game the Yankees win in which they either come from behind or get a particularly stellar performance from a player (Johnny’s 6-hit game). If helps if its against a team like the Red Sox, but that’s not necessary.
Now, they were showing today a game from 2004, July, I think, where the Yankees were beating up on the Red Sox, to whom they had already lost 5 of 6 on the year (sound familiar?), but in the context of the entire season (or, rather, post-season) – that game meant nothing and I didn’t want to watch it.
Injury delay on gameday. Who’s hurt and how, please?
Is it any coincidence that the Rays and Yankees, two teams that get on base around the most in baseball are also 2 of the most prolific offenses in baseball in terms of run production?
Rays and Yankees are #1 and #2 in OBP as well as runs scored.
BoSox are not as good as their record would indicate….They will be looking to upgrade their club this month…..
Gosh, it’s like disposable bats! (Mets game) All the bats that break these days it’s almost like it’s by design.
Last time Gardner led off he went 5-for-6
I think Damon set a record for most bats broken in one season last year.
“Now, they were showing today a game from 2004, July, I think, where the Yankees were beating up on the Red Sox, to whom they had already lost 5 of 6 on the year (sound familiar?), but in the context of the entire season (or, rather, post-season) – that game meant nothing and I didn’t want to watch it. ”
The game where Jeter wound up with a bloody face and Nomar sat on the Bench.
I can watch that all day!
Watch him run the bases
—
I do, I see every game. He is not as slow as you guys are selling him as. He is a robinson cano type, not fat so you might think they have more speed than they do, but they turn out to be average speed.
He is certainly not slow enough that it would be a mistake to put him 2nd. And having a lack of speed is not a KILLER thing in the 2 spot. You might miss scoring on a few doubles.
As of right now we are wasting Damon’s talents for hitting on the off chance that guys at the bottom of the order get on base for him.
The Rays are 21-8 in their last 29 games. So technically, they are the hottest team. But aren’t we the hottest team since last season?
I am now with gameday audio only because (as I will continue to complain) inclement weather is your worst enemy with satellite television.
Supposedly Pie got entangled with Beckett in a rundown at first and ended up falling and grabbing onto his left shoulder. They said he got up slowly and walked to the dugout and now we will see if he goes back into the game.
“Is it any coincidence that the Rays and Yankees, two teams that get on base around the most in baseball are also 2 of the most prolific offenses in baseball in terms of run production?”
No. But just because getting on base is necessary to score runs doesn’t mean it’s sufficient to do so.
This is what too many people miss with OBP and OPS. There’s no be all and end all “metric” that you can reduce all value to.
If you want my personal opinion it’s that the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, yes, and will probably win the division. However I am by no means giving up and I acknowledge that it’s a long season and that the Red Sox have a lot of issues, as every team does. I also understand that, as my name suggests, only 2 games have been played in Yankee Stadium this year between our two teams. I also think the Yanks will make the playoffs even if they don’t win the division, and then anything can happen.
Swisher is fine as a # 7 hitter, sitting him against high strikeout pitchers helps make him more productive.
SJ — thanx for backing me up on the baserunning matric
Jerkface — I don’t dislike the guy. He’s a nice player and was a great acquisition, but the idea that he and Damon are interchangeable in the # 2 spot just doesn’t work. Even with Johnny not running as much has had more stolen bases this year (8) than Swisher has in his entire career (7).
Once you get to the 3 and 4 spots, you are not trying to ‘avoid the double play’, you want guys on base to be driven in.
Swisher accomplishes that. And his lack of average won’t hurt as much as when he is batting 6th or 7th and he has to hit with the other OBP guys on.
Uncle Ellsworth-That game was fun.
Uncle E -
I guess that’s the game. It was a great game. It was a great play. Just didn’t feel like watching it. Maybe I’m just Bostoned-out? And it just reminds me that the Yankees were the better team that year, except for 4 games.
watched a game on MLB a while ago it was Sea v Yanks in like 1982 Gaylord Perry’s 300th win
pretty cool
I’d still try a 3-4-5 of Cano-A-Rod-Tex. Cano gets his hits but doesn’t seem to knock anyone in when it matters, as Pete pointed out.
Damon is clutch often enough behind Jeter up at the top.
Jeter hitting leadoff instead of 2nd gives him one less GIDP opportunity per game. This works for me.
A-Rod would benefit from a big stick behind him in Tex.
As A-Rod gets it going, they’ll serve meatballs to Cano all day.
You still have to keep a good hitter in behind Tex.
Posada can cover that spot well enough. Too bad Matsui’s knees are toast … he sure would have been valuable there as his former self.
To me it’s worth a try at least. Unless Cano doesn’t work the count often enough or well enough with the big bats coming up behind him, then he belongs in the 6 or 7 spot.
How is a guy that hits .200 with RISP and .230 overall an “above average player”?
Really, you gotta take your heads out of a stat book.
There isn’t a single talent evaluator in the sport, even those who subscribe to sabermetrics, that will call Nick Swisher and “above average player”.
Nick Markakis is an above average player. Jason Bay is an above average player. Nick Swisher is not an above average player.
Numbers are great and you can turn them into whatever you want to turn them into. Watching the games are better.
You can SEE who above average players are as much or more, than raw numbers tell you.
M
Probably the Dodgers are the hottest team since last season!
BTW … that was a GREAT comeback by the Orioles yesterday.
Wasted a good performance by Smoltz, but them’s tha breaks, Johnny Boy.
weather the Yanks are better than the sox is up to the Yanks
if they “click” and keep clicking they are better
Swisher is an average player with an above-average attitude and personality.
I really don’t understand why it’s so hard to pronounce “Hughes”
Kay channels his inner Francesa and says Yuuuuse
No. But just because getting on base is necessary to score runs doesn’t mean it’s sufficient to do so.
This is what too many people miss with OBP and OPS. There’s no be all and end all “metric” that you can reduce all value to.
—
It also helps that the yankees and rays hit for the highest average in baseball and for the most power.
But other teams have around equal batting average and score no where near the amount of runs because they don’t get on base as much.
The thing is , having swisher down in the order helps no one. He gets on base for who? Guys who can’t hit because they are the ones batting that far down. And guys that come after the 3-4-5 guys are going to get RBI chances when those hitters (good hitters) get on base, and Swisher just doesn’t perform well in those situations. Take him out of a place where he is weak and put him somewhere he can do some good.
And he’s neither a particularly good nor fast base runner.
Tell ya what I am loving about this game, and it’s something we seldome get with our games – the quick pace! Geeze it’s so good to have scoreless innings to go less than a half hour! (Okay another “slight exaggeration”)
Beckett is laboring and Francona desperately wants to avoid using the bullpen after last night’s fiasco.
C’mon Orioles …….. get some insurance runs.
The Yankees have avoided really long bad stretches-like the “bad” month.
We haven’t had a “bad” month yet. We had one great month (May) and 2 okay eh months. No bad months.
“The game where Jeter wound up with a bloody face and Nomar sat on the Bench.
I can watch that all day!”
===============
Miguel Cairo, one of the heroes of that game.
Halsey is now pitching for the LI Ducks I believe.
Forget what “pace” he is on. How many times has Nick Swisher hit 30 HR’s and driven in 100+ RBI in his career?
He hit 35 HR’s in 2006. His only time he hit over 30 HR’s.
He has never driven in 100 runs.
Chances are he won’t do both this year. If he does? Terrific.
Don’t get caught up with the “on pace” stats for a guy who doesn’t have a track record of delivering the results those believe he has reached in his career.
You can SEE who above average players are as much or more, than raw numbers tell you.
—
What all the ’scout’ people forget is that sabermetricians also watch the games. I watch 300 games of baseball a year and I’d take a team of guys who grind out ABs and get on base over a team of Robinson Canos any day of the week.
Swisher is an above average offensive player because he simply gets on base more than an AVERAGE mlb player.
The thing about the yankees is that most of their players are above average in multiple facets. It is tough to appreciate a guy like swisher in that case.
But when you stop and look at what he brings to the team, and notice that he gets in the middle of a lot of rallies, and you see him watch 20 pitches a game and tire out the pitcher so guys like Tex and A-rod can capitalize, as well as occassionaly smash one out, you realize how valuable he is.
You gotta watch the games to see that though.
If your avg. is below 250, you are not having a particularly good year.
“Swisher is an average player with an above-average attitude and personality.”
Perfect!
I don’t know how many posts we’ve read from Yankee fans extolling the virtues of Josh Beckett while at the same time killing yankee pitchers for not being as “clutch” and ace-like as Beckett is. Happened to wang tons. Happened to CC and still does. CC give up a run he’s not an ace.
If a yankee pitcher threw the kind of game Beckett did today those same Yankee fans would be in an absolute tizzy about how overpaid, lazy and underachieving that yankee pitcher was. No way he’d ever be an “ace.”
The Sox were pen was gassed last night. The team had to be somewhat demoralized. Beckett could have righted the ship quickly. But he didn’t. Just tossed fuel on the fire.
Same thing with Santana last night. The mets are going down the tubes as fast as any team you can imagine right now. Santana the ace takes the hill last night against an mediocre brewers team and is not only bad he’s throwing temper tantrums out on the field.
Too many Yankee fans have unrealistic expectations for what an “ace” is.
BTW, Cano has 42 RBIs for the year which puts him 3rd on the team behind Tex & Damon. (Ahead of Swish & Melky) Cano had 97 RBIs in 2007 batting lower in the lineup, so if he could drive in runs from lower in the lineup with slower runners in front of him then he most likely will drive in runs with faster runners in front of him. I like the lineup that starts with these guys in this order:
1-Jeter
2-Damon
3-Tex
4-ARod
5-Cano
6-Posada
Beckett is going to go 7, the orioles really missed their chance to knock him out.
Swisher is a bad baserunner in that he overestimates his abilities. Or just brain-farts. Take your pick. He gets doubled off. He tries to stretch out singles. Bad news. He’s definitely station-to-station.
And he’s not a base-stealer, so by design Jeter or Damon would make better 2-hole hitters.
CB-your post is spot on except that I like that Brewers team and think it’s above avg.
I don’t always agree with him, but Michael Kay is speaking my language today.
Nick is an above average guy, but a mediocre player who has occasional hot streaks at the plate. People often confuse the hot steaks with actually being an above average player, SJ.
IMO, Gardner has far surpassed Swisher overall. Gardner has a shot at establishing himself as a legit starter if he continues to improve through the end of the season. Only thing Swisher has on him is power.
Strangely, some of the same people will deem a .270 month by A-Rod, Cano or Damon to be a total utter waste. For Swisher it’s a hot streak worthy of being team MVP.
I imagine the number of instances where Melky starts in right over Swish will decline significantly with Hinske here. I imagine if Swish gets a break, Hinske will be the guy. Now if we go for defensive substitution then you will still see the Damon/Gardner/Melky OF. Melky may be better defensively and offensively than Hinske, but Hinske was brought here for a reason and I imagine spelling Swish is just as big a part of the equation as spelling ARod
1-Jeter
2-Damon
3-Tex
4-ARod
5-Cano
6-Posada
—
hey … wait a second, thats our lineup now!!
Uncle Ellsworth
July 1st, 2009 at 3:05 pm
watched a game on MLB a while ago it was Sea v Yanks in like 1982 Gaylord Perry’s 300th win
pretty cool
============
I’d like to see that nationally broadcast game Fidrych pitched and won against the Yanks in Detroit in ‘76.
Remember when ARod hit 14 HRs in April and he was “on pace” to hit like, what, 65 or so?
Nick is an above average guy, but a mediocre player who has occasional hot streaks at the plate. People often confuse the hot steaks with actually being an above average player, SJ.
—
It must suck to be all those mediocore players who haven’t figured out how to have hot streaks
Getting on base a lot is not the only criteria of being an “above average player”. It just isn’t.
If someone is an average to below average thrower, baserunner, defender, hitter with RISP and overall hitter, how does he become an “above average player”?
Its not just about OBP.
That’s what statheads miss and that’s why they overrate a guy like Nick.
Doreen said it best. Average player with an above average attitude.
Love him on the team. Just not buying he is more than he is because he’s not.
Alexis Arguello won’t be down for breakfast?
What a shame. Arguello/Aaron Pryor fights were about as good as gets in the boxing game.
To anyone going to the game tonight-
I am pretty sure I am bringing my infamous butterfly rain jacket (bringing the rain jacket should ensure it never actually rains, whereas if I leave it home it will downpour). So if you happen to see a 28 year old girl wearing a rainjacket with butterflies… its probably me (cause really, who else would wear butterflies???). So feel free to introduce yourself.
I would understand the debate of Swish to the 2 hole a little more if Jeter and Damon weren’t getting it done, but so far this season I have liked the Jeter-Damon 1-2 combo. If this is about getting Cano out of the #5 spot than 1 move is all that’s needed. not a complete blow up of the lineup. honestly I would prefer that Cano just be moved to #7 spot with Matsui at 5 and Jorge at 6…the fewer moves the better…I’d rather Girardi do nothing than end up with a lineup that has Swish at #2 or Tex anywhere other than 3…I don’t want him to slip back into mad-scientist mode and think he has to make 3 adjustments every day like he did last season.
Fidrych
he was awesome
Might be a good time to point out the Yankees received Swisher for Wilson Betemit.
However, awful, great, average, above average, pithy, moronic, bad haircutty, anyone on this blog believes Swisher is…
The Yankees traded Wilson Betemit for him. Wilson. Betmemit.
Advantage Yankees.
Swisher is above average in 2 of the 3 ’slashes’, OBP and SLG. Thats above average. He just has a limited offensive skill set.
There just aren’t many players who hit for average, get on base, and hit for power.
You scout guys should realize what the AVERAGE major league baseball player is, and then recognize that Swisher is better at 2 phases of the game than that player.
Red Sox just signed thier 1st rd. pick Super GOD…HEATHCOTT I’M WAITING !
The Swisher deal was a great deal by Cashman.
“”"Francessa made a good point…. Joba’s ERA is good because the Yankees are so cautious with him. They never let him get beat up and always yank him when he is in trouble late and thus, his ERA looks good. They always take him out after 100 pitches and don’t push him to see what he is made of. Like the Mets game, he was taken out after 4 innings/100 pitches. Why not let him start the 5th?
Joba’s leash is so short that it is no wonder his ERA is so low.”"”
That is true for every single starter that has ever played the game. Francessa and you are incompetent as to the nature of baseball.
Kay just teased the audience and said that something very positive happened last night to the Yanks that hasn’t happened in a couple of years.
My guess is that he’ll talk about A-Rod turning on that high and tight fastball and launching it 450 ft.
So my prediction is that Kay will say A-Rod hasn’t done anything like that since his 2007 MVP season and he looks like he’s about to go on a rampage.
Just my guess where Kay is going.
“Take him out of a place where he is weak and put him somewhere he can do some good.”
I don’t know if you’ve seen my posts from the past several days but I’ve been already been advocating moving Swisher to the two hole.
So on that point we agree.
That said you are way overselling Swisher. While he might not be the proverbial base “clogger” to say that he’s as good a baserunner as Damon is ridiculous. It’s those kinds of arguments that make pro-Swisher people sound silly.
You can’t blow him up into more than he is just because other people diminish his skill set more than they should. It just leads to silly arguments.
The argument for why Swisher should go to the two hole is as much an indictment of Swisher as it is an recognition for what he does well.
How you generate your OBP matters. In context it matters a lot.
Swisher and Damon have nearly the same OBP. Who would you rather have up with men on base? Or how about a man on second with two outs?
You’d be crazy to pick Swisher because those in context game situations – the context in which empirical runs and not abstract linear regression runs – are scored favor Damon’s skill set way over Swishers. It’s not even close.
The OBP argument gets oversimplified because it ignores how a player generates his OBP and tends to diminish batting average as a function of random chance that can’t be counted on.
I actually do think A-Rod will go on a rampage. I also think Tex will soon go on a rampage. He has been hitting line drives all over the park, soon they’ll fall in for hits.
What makes the Swisher deal a good one is that Cashman always wanted to go after Teixeira.
If Swisher was the everyday first baseman, I dont’ know…
rconn23, I hope you can’t find anyone here that would argue that was a bad trade or that we would be better off with Betemit instead of Swisher…I really hope not.
Getting on base a lot is not the only criteria of being an “above average player”. It just isn’t.
================
I think Jerkface is saying he’s above average at the plate. And I’d agree with that.
Giuseppe Franco just called Kay’s A-Rod rampage.
jerkface has to be one of the best SN on lohud
So it’s true? That’s what Kay is talking about?
Take Cano out of the 5 spot. He swings at pitches out of the strike zone. Put Posada there, he is more patient.
Really, SJ? No talent evaluators would call Swisher above-average? That’s just not true. He’s well-above average in both OBP and Slugging, both of which tell us much more about a player’s offensive contributions than batting average. Do you not think Adam Dunn is an above-average player? Because Swisher is a Dunn clone with perhaps 85-90% of the ability offensively, but is nowhere near the defensive liability that Dunn is.
Erica-You gonna stop by under the O’Neill banner?
Giuseppe Franco
July 1st, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Kay just teased the audience and said that something very positive happened last night to the Yanks that hasn’t happened in a couple of years.
My guess is that he’ll talk about A-Rod turning on that high and tight fastball and launching it 450 ft.
=========
I was impressed with that home run. When he swung at that inside pitch, I thought he’d get jammed.
But Kay shouldn’t be teasing the audience with that. That would be kind of lame.
Generating the majority of your OBP by drawing walks is great…..if you are Brett Gardner.
If you are Nick Swisher, you have to be an RBI bat to be considered an, “above average player”.
As far as the Joba Debates, he’s STILL above average as a #5 starter. That’s who he is at this stage of his development.
When seen in that context, you can ease off the throttle with him.
In the off-season, he has to get in better shape, work a little harder, trust his catchers more and, as long as his arm is sound, he will be fine.
Folks want him to be more than he is capable of being right now. Its fine to want it. Its just unrealistic.
Hold it, SJ. I disagree. You’re saying it’s not good that he’s taking so many walks?
I saw two bad baserunning mistakes on back to back days in Boston. Otherwise he’s been avg. You’re saying that it’s not good that he walks so much?
Kay said A-Rod hasn’t turned on a ball like that “in a couple of years.”
Wow, Franco called it practically word for word.
“I would understand the debate of Swish to the 2 hole a little more if Jeter and Damon weren’t getting it done, but so far this season I have liked the Jeter-Damon 1-2 combo.”
The reason to move Swisher to the two hole isn’t because Swisher is great, it’s not becuase you want him to get more at bats and it’s not because Damon isn’t getting the job done.
The reason to move him to that spot is because you really want to hide his deficiencies. That’s why. You want to hide his weakness while maximizing his strengths.
Normally line up doesn’t matter much. But Swisher just isn’t going to be a guy who drives run in efficiently. He will however be very good at getting on base and passing the baton.
So the value of his game depends on who he is passing the baton to.
If he’s passing the baton to Brett Gardner then the walk he drew with men on base isn’t going to be all that valuale.
But if he’s passing the baton to Tex and Alex then that walk he drew will be of much more value.
Wow. Bergesen has done a TREMENDOUS job. I love to see rookie pitchers pitch the kind of game that he has! Eight strong innings.
GOOD FOR YOU KID!!!!!
Swisher doesn’t just get on base a lot. He hits for power, too. He rates about the same among AL hitters in both OBP and SLG. People who think Swisher is just all about getting on base do not know what they are talking about.
And when you take the season so far as a whole, Swisher has been an above average player this year so far. The previous sentence is a simple statement of fact and cannot be validly disputed.
Rays lose, Sox 3 outs away.
Nice day at the office for Brad Bergesen. 8 IP 1 ER.
Kevin,
Nick Swisher got traded for Wilson Betemit. Tell me the last “above average” player that got traded for a player as bad as Wilson Betemit?
Adam Dunn has hit 40+ HR’s FIVE times and 30+ HR’s once. Nick Swisher has never hit 40 HR’s and only has hit 30+ HR’s once.
Dunn has driven in 100+ runs FOUR times and 90+ RBI once.
Nick has never driven in 100 runs and has driven in 90+ RBI once.
Dunn has had a .900+ OPS SIX times. Swisher? ZERO.
Swisher isn’t in the same league as an offensive player as Dunn.
Another example of overrating Swisher.
but being a good guy with a neat haircut do go a long way…Swish is a major league player and he’s helping the team this season…that’s enough for me. He doesn’t compare to guys like Dunn but he doesn’t have to.
(does) go a long way
Hokiehill, I agree.
SJ44: And Curt Schilling was traded for Casey Fossum, whats your point? Kenny Williams is an idiot and his manager hated swisher and was misusing him.
Swish is an average player with potential for above average results. He has a good batting eye, but his batting average doesn’t reflect it. He has potential HR power, but his season results don’t reflect that. He has better than an average arm, but his throws are off course and miss the cutoffs. His baserunning skills are average at best and he often has poor judgement on the bases.
Potential doesn’t make him above average. He is average. Hinske is average as well. Both come cheap. Both are needed. Let’s not make them more than they are.
Cano is above average for a 2B. He hits & fields. His defense is above average. His range is above average. For a 2B his hitting, power and RBIs are above average. His 1st 4 seasons he has averaged over 77 RBIs each year. He has a lifetime BA over .300 at .302. He has averaged over 15 HRs a season and has 12 already this year. He is only 26 years old. He is an above average player with an even higher upside. He batted .342 at the age of 23. He had 97 RBIs at the age of 24. He is still very young and pitchers have adjusted to him and he is now adjusting to them. Cano is a very good hitter who could be even greater if he knew the strike zone better. He will learn it. I like him hitting 5th. He is better than any alternative the Yanks have right now. Batting Posada & Matsui 5th clogs the bases down to a station to station game. IMO, Matsui will go on DL to try to fix his knees for 15 days or more soon.
And one more thing, I don’t really care much for Joe G, but his lineup order is ok. It is his choices of players, pitching, decision making, and not making that drives me crazy.
Swisher is above average. Not great, but he holds his own out there.
The thing with Swisher is that he is not a player you depend upon. He is a player that will enhance the area of the lineup you place him in. Like said before, you want him passing the baton to good hitters, not Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera.
think of him like a performance enhancing drug, and then inject him into A-rod’s buttocks
“Swisher doesn’t just get on base a lot. He hits for power, too. ”
Compared to an average baseball player sure. He doesn’t hit for a lot of power for a RF or for a 1b. He hits for around median power. His strongest skill is his ability to draw walks.
He’s an above average ball player with significant limitations related to a relatively narrow and skewed skill set.
New thread.
“Kenny Williams is an idiot and his manager hated swisher and was misusing him.”
Kenny Williams assembled a world series champion. What have you done?
Idiot is strong language – language that should be backed up.
Or let me guess. That was all luck right? Maybe it was the wonderful situation of bad process and good outcome?
You are going to put Swisher now in the same league as Curt Schilling? One was a salary dump for financial reasons.
Its not even an apples for apples comparison.
Swisher is a below average outfielder, a poor base runner and has no speed.
On the plus side, he has some power and walks. But he is not considered a power hitter like Dunn.
Easiest decision in the world to move Cano out of the 5th spot. But let’s see if Girardi can somehow screw it up again tonight. Right now, Cano is virtually worthless in any big spot.
Bay strikes out for the fifth straight time.
CB-
I’m glad you agree Swisher has been an above average ballplayer this year. And when you combine his power with his ability to get on base, and the fact that he is average defensively for a right fielder, Nick has been an above average right fielder this year as well.
The fact that he has limitations, which I also agree with you on, doesn’t change that basic fact.
It was so lame by the Mariners last night to to walk A-Rod intentionally to get to Cano. And bam, home run. Every time Cano is hitting behind A-Rod I would walk Rodriguez w/ like any1 on base. But hey let’s hope they keep pitching to Alex.
Idiot is a strong word. But what has kenny williams done lately?
He had pitchers that were unnaturally good for an entire season and postseason. 4 Starters making 30 starts with eras under 4??? Are you kidding me? That almost NEVER happens.
When you get lucky like that good things will happen. The rays had all their starters make 30 starts and have career years last year, and they went to the world series.
*Not to walk A-Rod intentionally
Funny that the next season all those starters put up ERAs over 4.
Its better to be lucky than good, and the good teams will put themselves in position to be lucky more often. Sometimes the other teams will run into some good luck though.
The rays are trying to put themselves in good position by valuing speed and defense, which can create a lot of luck.
Thats a smart organization.
“When you get lucky like that good things will happen. The rays had all their starters make 30 starts and have career years last year, and they went to the world series.”
Yeah. I figured you’d chalk it up to luck.
O’s trying their best to give this game away.
Baltimore doing their level best to give this game away.
Single, walk, walk…two outs…bases loaded…
Can I say again how much I hate the Red Sox?
Tie game. O’s stink.
Having your entire starting pitching staff remain healthy is lucky.
Ugh…come on…
RS tied it up will go to bottom of the 9th,shoot!!!
Beckett is the luckiest pitcher in the world. He has so many starts where he gives up 5, 6, even 7+ runs and doesn’t get a loss.
I hate bullpens.
As a general rule.
They all stink. One lousy choke artist after the next one. O’s starter goes 8 great innings, breaks the magical 100 pitch barrier and gets lifted with a 5-1 lead.
single, bang single, walk, walk…single…tie game.
Bullpens and the magical number of 100 pitches are the two main reasons – even more than the 5 man rotation – that no one will EVER win 300 games again who is not already near 250 today.
it rarely happens and teams that it happens for usually succeed in some fashion. Its a fact. That, combined with career years from every guy?
Look at Garland
4.51
4.89
3.5
4.51
4.23
One of these is not like the other
“Having your entire starting pitching staff remain healthy is lucky.”
That’s a vacuous thing to say then.
So your point is that most teams that win the world series are lucky. Profound.
And if that’s the case how is William’s an “idiot.”
But you seem to take the “analysts” perspective that everything I disagree with that produces positive outcomes I can attribute to luck.
Thankfully the little elf ends the inning. If the O’s can win a walkoff that would acually make this loss more painful for the Red Sox.
“One of these is not like the other”
Do you seriously think citing John Garland’s 2005 season or the Sox starting staff era progressions is some kind of profound statement?
Do you think I’m not familiar with that data? That’s one the most widely discussed and beaten to death subjects in sabermetrics.
And one of the ones people most often use to prove how smart they are and how dumb others are – especially kenny williams.
It’s amazing how simplistic statistics in baseball are compared to other fields and how overblown people make them out to be.
Using a trade against Swisher is terrible. you don’t know what Kenny Williams was thinking in that trade. i shouldn’t call him an idiot because I also don’t know what he was thinking, but its not a good trade, he got fleeced!
And he hasn’t won the world series or gotten close since 2005 or before 2005 so I’m not sure what was so smart about his white sox teams.
I will pat him on the back for assembling 5 starters who all managed to stay healthy all at once for 1 season while all posting career numbers, which they never came close to again. But I am not going to say he foresaw that.
“i shouldn’t call him an idiot because I also don’t know what he was thinking, ”
No you didn’t but you called him an idiot anyway.
The Swisher deal was a bad one – unless of course Williams did it as a pure salary dump which it probably was. But i guess that didn’t occur to you when you called him an idiot.
And how about that Carlos Quentin deal? Or let me guess – that was luck also right? Bad process good outcome – right? Something like that.
It’s great to keep harping on the Swisher trade while conveniently forgetting say the Quentin deal.
Actually that did occur to me, but it being a salary dump proves my point. Good players get traded for bad ones in salary dumps.
My point is that swisher is a nice, valuable player. And sometimes those guys get traded for crap. SJ44’s argument is that Swisher was traded because he sucks.
And I did forget that Quentin trade. That was a good trade, I loved Quentin.
On the other hand, Kenny Williams traded El Caballo for Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino.
I don’t think Williams is a particularly good GM, but as a person he might not be an idiot. Lets leave it at that. Its easy to throw insults like that around when we place different values on the meaning (I don’t think its a strong insult).
And I think you can definitely argue the ‘process’ williams has used in recent times, which hasnt exactly worked out.
Top of the 11th,some mgrs leave pitchers in too long,sound familiar? He waited until the RS came within 2,bases loaded to finally act.
“Actually that did occur to me, but it being a salary dump proves my point. Good players get traded for bad ones in salary dumps.”
I have no idea what you’re talking about. That wasn’t the point made in our conversation at all. If you have an issue with something SJ said take it up with him.
Well thats what prompted this whole thing! SJ44’s reasoning that Swisher is a bad player = Kenny Williams traded him for Wilson betemit
Thats not a smart trade!
You just got offended about me tossin around idiot.
RS 6 bAL 5 TOP OF THE 11TH,this is why Bal is 12 games behind in the division,they self destruct.
Batting order:
Gardner
Jeter
Tex
Rodriguez
Damon
Posada
Matsui/Swisher DH depending upon right or left starting pitcher
Cano
Cabrera
Better defense, speed on the bases, etc.