Take whatever help you can get
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- July
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If you watch Jorge Posada closely, he always blesses himself before the start of the game. Last night, he got a little extra assistance.
Father Joseph McShane, the president of Fordham University, threw out the first pitch and bestowed a blessing on Jorge before giving him a hug. Jorge didn’t get any hits, but he called a nice game and the Yankees won 4-2.
Nice work, Father.
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on Thursday, July 2nd, 2009 at 12:35 pm by Peter Abraham.
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Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
Josh Thomson
Still think there’s no help from Scranton?
Weather update: The Bronx is Drowning.
You’ve got to love a priest with a blackberry on his belt.
Father McShane looks a little bit like Phil Rizzutto in that photo.
Yeah I notice that Jorge always writes something over and over in the dirt before the game. Any idea what it is.
I think he draws the cross.
Jorge didn’t get any hits
There you have it. Concrete proof that there is NO God.
\”He called a nice game\”
LOL
Isn\’t that what Yankee fans laughed about Tek for years??
I think he’s doing the math in the dirt on how many games the Yankess are up in the Wildcard standings!
g- I guess he just does it over and over than?
Now to get off track, I really think if Joba loses weight hell become a better pitcher. Look at Matt Cain, and King Felix. Since theyve shed weight theyve been able to go longer in games and have been phenominal. Even Bruney has been better since he lost weight. its something the Yankees should think about. He aint CC. He aint a big horse who throws 96.
I think he just does it on the start of the game.
Keith Law chat going on right now:
Mike A. (RAB)
Hey KLaw, now that Chapman defected, can we get your thoughts on him?
Keith Law
I talked to a longtime scout – I mean, been at this 40 years – in the spring who said he was the best young LHP he’d ever seen. On good days he’ll touch 100 with a slider in the upper 80s, but he hasn’t been that guy every time out – I talked to another scout who saw him last year, I believe in Beijing, who had him topping out around 90 – and there are all kinds of rumors as to why. The upside probably puts him into $40-50 million territory, if not more … and you bet your sweet bippy that Scott Boras is paying attention and will argue for the same deal for Strasburg.
Hank Yankee July 2nd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
I think he’s doing the math in the dirt on how many games the Yankess are up in the Wildcard standings!
=====================
LOL
Like I said, I’m not overhyping Chapman. He’s the real deal as a prospect.
A definite, “we gotta break the budget to get him” kind of guy.
Father McShane got U2 to play at Fordham for free. I have no complaints about this man.
This rain, on the other hand…
I didn’t see the two new threads in catching up. Just wanted to put in my two cents on Austin Jackson:
One thing about Austin Jackson. I read an article featuring him very recently:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06.....ckson.html
He was a ranked baseball player at age 12 and age 15 and then focused on basketball to prove he could do that too.
So, the kid has very good instincts and baseball is not all that foreign to him.
ALL-STAR VOTING UPDATE: TEIXEIRA GARNERING 17% MORE VOTES THAN YOUKILIS OVER PAST 3 DAYS!!
Will Kevin Youkilis make it four straight years for a Red Sox first baseman to be voted the AL starter?
Yankees rival Mark Teixeira is making a strong bid to end Boston’s run by garnering 17 percent more online votes than Youkilis over the past 72 hours in hopes of closing a 40,000-vote gap.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....p;c_id=mlb
That’s good news, but that’s only gonna make Sox fans vote even more for Youk over the next 12 hours. We need to continue to vote for Teixeira, vote as much as you can to make him the starting first baseman representing the AL.
Father Joe was blessing the path between the mound and home plate. Jorge just happened to be standing on it.
Andy’s pitching was heavenly last night. Coincidence?
brandon,de Caster can play 3b,2b and maybe 1b
VOTE TEX!!
pat: I don’t believe in coincidences.
CB,
Thanks for the reply in the other thread. Pete’s moving quickly today!
BTW, for all those who were hankering for Hank Blalock, he’s having a fine season topped off by his walk-off homerun last night against the Angels…but he’s no Teixeira.
Does releasing Ramson and signing Roger Freel make sense? I would give it a shot.
Compliments of MLB Rumors-R-Us.
Cubs Acquire Jeff Baker, DFA Ryan Freel
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 2 at 12:07pm CST]
12:07pm: In a corresponding move, the Cubs designated Ryan Freel for assignment, according to a team press release. Freel, 33, put up an OPS of .369 in 14 games for the Cubs.
11:27am: ESPN.com’s Bruce Levine reports that the Rockies receive right-hander Alberto Alburquerque, who was pitching in A ball for the Cubs. The 23-year-old has struck out 44 and allowed 40 baserunners in nearly 35 innings pitched this year.
8:41am: The Cubs acquired Jeff Baker from the Rockies, according to Yahoo Sports. It’s unclear what the Rockies will receive in exchange for the infielder. Baker, 28, has played in just 12 games this year for Colorado, but he posted a respectable .791 OPS in over 100 games last year. He’s played all four corner positions in his five-year career, but he’s played mostly at second base.
Alberto Albuquerque?
GB,
Been watching Freel, always one of my favorites, the past few days when the Cubs were playing the Pirates.
Sad to say, he looks done. I think all of his injuries have finally taken a toll.
Bat is slow and he doesn’t move as well as he used to.
Its a shame because he was a fun guy to watch play.
I just don’t think his body is cooperating with him anymore.
I hate the updates on voting. Just do an update once in necessary. All it does is help to stuff the box and make people vote for people in hopes of keeping others out. Total bs. If it is the fans game, don’t make it count. Thanks Bud.
Maybe keep Ramson hidden away and release Ransom instead.
How would Freel be an upgrade over Ransom? He can play more positions, obviously, but I think at this stage of both their careers, Ransom has the better bat, simply because injuries have derailed Freel
Mike (Westchester)
Is it possible Brett Gardner is better than thought and Jacob Ellsbury is not quite as good as thought, and they’re really almost the same player>
Keith Law
No, it’s that Gardner is hitting over his head and is being platooned heavily, boosting his rate stats.
Here’s what a scout told BA about Chapman:
“”He was unreal in Mexico City and just OK in San Diego,” the scout said. “There were rumors heading into Mexico that he wouldn’t be there because they were afraid he would defect, but he was there and was lights out. If you are looking for more than that in a pitcher, you’ll be searching your whole life. He was so much fun to watch. If he’s 21 like he’s listed, the sky’s the limit. You’ve got honestly just one or two tweaks that could be made but he could go straight to the top of a big league rotation. He’s got a great body, definitely has high pockets, absolutely. He’s on top of the hitter, his release has extension, he’s got the ball coming out of there at 100 mph. He’s absolutely electric.”
I think the point he made is a good one – if you’re searching for more than this in a young pitcher you’ll be searching your whole lifetime.
The one or two tweaks and he’s a top of the rotation guy also was’t a bad comment.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....ts/?p=5271
SJ44
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:25 pm
GB,
Been watching Freel, always one of my favorites, the past few days when the Cubs were playing the Pirates.
Sad to say, he looks done. I think all of his injuries have finally taken a toll.
Bat is slow and he doesn’t move as well as he used to.
Its a shame because he was a fun guy to watch play.
I just don’t think his body is cooperating with him anymore.
————————————————————
I haven’t seen any games of his since he ran into his last wall, but, yeah, he was an interesting player ywo years ago. It’s a pity to see these guys get hurt so bad that they lose everything so young.
Ryan Freel? His bat is dead. He plays hard, but his asset, glove, is in decline, too. Avoid.
And on that comment I posted above by the scout speaking to BA on Chapman.
When he said Chapman was OK in San Diego – I believe that was the game he threw against Japan when he hit 100.2 on the gun.
That was his “ok” game.
I missed the previous discussion – CB or SJ44 or anyone who knows, what can you tell me about the kids the Yankees signed? Thanks!
I’m tellin’ ya CB, I’m not one to tell the Yankees what they should do with their money since its not my money.
However, if asked, I would tell them, “do whatever you gotta do to sign this kid”.
The day you can do it, sign him, move him in with Nardi Contreras, hire El Duque to be his mentor, and spend the next 6 months working with him and you have gold on your hands.
If Hal Steinbrenner said to me, “I’m going to give you X number of dollars to sign ONE guy this off-season”, and the choices are, Holliday, Bay or Chapman, I sign Chapman.
That’s how much I think of this kid.
“Whatever July 2nd, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Weather update: The Bronx is Drowning.”
been raining a lot up there lately huh? That must mess w/ the players routines if BP is getting canceled almost every home game
It’s really raining bad in NYC? I’m headed home in a couple of hours and it bright, sunny and hot here in Wilmington.
“Meanwhile, gang, be careful with Chapman. They’re saying he’s the best Cuban since Contreras. The Yankees wasted a lot of money on that guy. The human arm is not designed to throw 100. That kid is a risk in 1,000 different ways but I’m sure the Yankees will be involved. But at $30 million? That is crazy.”
===========
Pete,
$30M is crazy?
For 4 years/$30M, he’d have to pitch similar to say, Jeff Suppan to make the contract worthwhile.
Is that so crazy?
Pete,
What you said about the Yankees keeping Leyritz away from the team, this reminded me about Elliott Maddox. I read an interview with Elliott in which he expressed sorrow that the Yankees have excluded him from events (e.g. old timer’s day) because he was accused of “stealing” disability benefit money in 2004 claiming he was unable to work due his ailing right knee (~21 surgeries). He was found “not guilty” but the Yankees have not brought him back into the “Yankee family”. He still wears his Yankee uniform when conducting basball camps and loves the Yanks. This is sad. Can something be done about this? Life is too short, Elliott was a true Yankee and could have manned CF for many years if not for the poor drainage at Shea stadium!
Rishi, I am in Queens and we have had on and off rain today. Right now the sun is out.
“Cardinals signed outfielder Wagner Mateo.
Mateo, a 16-year-old from the Dominican Republic, received a $3.1 million signing bonus, which stands as the second-highest chunk of money ever tendered to a Latin American amateur. ”
-rotoworld
Cardinals in on the spending as well.
The contract will be north of 30 million IMO.
Its all about risk v. reward. Risk? Absolutely. Reward? you hit on him at 50 million, its 111 million less than you spent to find an under 30 LH ace in CC.
In 2-3 years, this kid could be a 23-24 year old, top of the rotation, lefthanded pitcher. Those guys are worth more than he is going to get when he signs.
As Stick always says, “you can’t be afraid to go big game hunting when it comes to prospects”.
As far as Chapman is concerned, he’s as big as it gets as a prospect and will cost half (counting his posting fee) of what Yu Darvish will cost in a few years when he is posted and he’s a better prospect than Darvish.
“If Hal Steinbrenner said to me, “I’m going to give you X number of dollars to sign ONE guy this off-season”, and the choices are, Holliday, Bay or Chapman, I sign Chapman.”
That’s a very interesting way to look at it. It assumes some kind of budget and forces you to think about trade offs.
I guess I’d say that I’d put Chapman in the absolute must sign basket. And I can’t put either Bay or Holliday in that spot.
Watching him in the WBC all you could think about was how great he’d look in pinstripes.
He’s a must sign. Outside of baseball he’s clearly a charismatic guy who was very comfortable with the media. He’d be a star in NY.
When Joba was in college he was sitting 92-94. He got drafted, starting working with Nardi and he was sitting 97-99.
I’d guess Nardi could do wonders with Chapman. His fluctuation in velocity could be/likely is mechanical (barring injury I suppose).
Even in that short stint in the WBC you could see that he doesn’t repeat his delivery. On pitch f/x his release point isn’t that consistent.
There’s velocity that’s not tapped in that arm.
He’s a must sign. The yankee have to execute on this.
The Red Sox seem quiet on the international signings.
It seems a bit peculiar to me, especially considering they have the $$ to invest.
I know they’re big on the draft but it seems crazy to me to not dabble in the international market as well…
it’s probably one of the biggest advantages big market teams still have.
a great homage to Mo (apologies if it’s already been posted):
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ref=sihpT1
I wasn’t aware of his era+ standing in history…not surprised one iota, either.
Basically, the only pitchers who compare pitched in the dead ball era. He pitched against juiced-up freaks in a live ball era, and sent them back for more juice.
I can just see Palmeiro putting in an extra milliliter knowing he has to try to do something to stand a chance against Mo.
Thanks, Fran – sounds like it might be worth it to leave early, soak in the sun here and then head home
You guys are scaring me. Like if we don’t land Chapman, it’ll doom the Yankees for generations. Kind of heard that talk after Inoa reneged on his deal and signed with Oakland.
Now, I understand that Chapman’s a proven international commodity and it’s important that we give our best efforts, but I’ve never seen CB be so concerned about getting a player.
o/t I just finished online voting, will the people who attend the game today get to vote as well? The Red Sox are off today.
SJ44,
When you say $50M, are you thinking 6 years? Or what?
I suppose even if he had to move to the bullpen his fastball could make him a closer (and they’re getting $10M a year).
Of course if he makes it as a starter you’ve struck gold.
“For 4 years/$30M, he’d have to pitch similar to say, Jeff Suppan to make the contract worthwhile.”
No. To to be worth Suppan money he’d have to pitch like Suppan but have a 4years/ $42M.
If they sign Chapman and he blows up so be it. That’s the nature of pitching.
But the idea that this isn’t the guy to take that enormous risk on isn’t correct.
Blowing the money on Igawa is far, far worse than it would be on Chapman because the reward was never there with Igawa.
And like SJ said – there is no comparison between Yu Darvish and Chapman. If they were ever to pass on Chapman and go crazy on Darvish that would be utter foolishness.
The Red Sox are going to sign 2-4 players in the international signing period.
I heard their budget (approx. 4 million) is the same as the Yankees for the July 2 FA’s.
m
I was thinking the exact same thing about Inoa/Ynoa.
Of course he was 16 and Chapman is 21. It’s easier to project somebody 5 years older, so I guess the risk is much lower that he’ll reach his potential.
“On good days he’ll touch 100 with a slider in the upper 80s, but he hasn’t been that guy every time out – I talked to another scout who saw him last year, I believe in Beijing, who had him topping out around 90 – and there are all kinds of rumors as to why.”
I guess it’s because he belongs in the bullpen.
I just don’t see Hal going for this type of expenditure. Cash had to get down on his hands and knees to get himl to ok the Tex signing, but Tex was already a terrific player. Hal (Hank, IMO, is a non-entity here) is not going to spend $60 million on an unknown player – esp .with the way the economy has affected the revenue streams from YS. I like him a lot, but he’s a businessman more than a sportsman. If George were running the team, the kid would be signed, sealed and delivered, but he’s not and in this case, I think the apple does fall far from the tree.
Getting El Duque back would be a good idea, but the Yankees obviously never had any interest in him prior to this, so they are going to just change their minds now? He wants to pitch and he’s with the Rangers, so I don’t see anyway he comes back to NY.
“The Red Sox are going to sign 2-4 players in the international signing period.”
——-
thanks – I hadn’t heard any buzz.
“That was his “ok” game.”
FWIW, he sucked in that game. Guess he threw hard, but struggled with control. When he did throw strikes, he got hit and was pulled in the 3rd.
hardwired – thanks for the link…awesome article
The only question is will the Yanks let Chapman pitch like a Cuban???
Every time I think about El Duque pitching in relief, it’s that RBI triple Dontrelle Willis hit off him in the final game of the Mets choke in 07. Please make a comeback and give me some better memories El Duque!
I would just love if he helps the Rangers send Anaheim to the golf courses on October 1.
“No. To to be worth Suppan money he’d have to pitch like Suppan but have a 4years/ $42M.”
———-
either way, I found it peculiar that Pete thinks it’s “crazy” to give him $30M.
It’s one thing to be worried about the risk, but I wouldn’t call it crazy to take a chance on that kind of upside.
The Red Sox will be signing Jose Vinicio, SS, when he turns 16 on July 10th. He’s the 2nd-highest rank SS, after Sano, of course.
Sano, though, projects as a 3B or RF according to most scouts (solid arm and speed now, but questionable range when he fills out).
Vinicio is a pure SS, and an adept switch-hitter.
If the Yankees don’t sign Chapman and he turns out to be a real deal stud pitcher, the Yankees front office will be destroyed for not getting him. But, if we do sign him and he turns out to be a monumental bust, Cashman and the front office will be louded as boneheads who bought into the hype.
There really isn’t any comparison between Inoa and Chapman.
Chapman has been getting out professional hitters since he was 17 years old. Inoa is strictly a projectable, “hope we hit on him”, kind of kid. He hasn’t yet faced the kind of competition Chapman has faced.
Its kind of like comparing a HS soph to Blake Griffin. The HS Soph may be talented but, Blake Griffin has already shown he can play.
That’s the best way to view Chapman v. Inoa.
You hate to say, you “have” to sign one guy.
However these kind of prospects, particularly because he’s LH, don’t come around every year.
Inoa? You can afford to pass on him because he’s 5+ years away from knowing if he can even play. Chapman is much, much closer to being big league ready and is a known commodity.
IMO, he’s a must sign for the Yankees. The stars are aligned for them to sign him. They just have to make the $$$ match the star alignment.
Hardwired: That article was maybe the best single baseball column I have read all year. Not just because I loved the subject (I did), but also because it was so well written. Joe Posnanski is far and away the best sports writer in the game right now. Its not even close. No one else is in the same league.
Jorge got blessed? Big deal, Cervelli chugs holy water before he starts.
Chapman = Dynasty!
I don’t think it’s crazy to throw $30m at a guy.
They threw a ton at Igawa, they threw a ton at marte.
But I don’t think they’ll go overboard for this guy.
Where does he project? Rotation? Bullpen?
I think they’ll do their due diligence like they did with Dice-K & Inoa. We’re stuffed with pitching, so I can’t see them breakin the bank for this guy. Even if he is that good.
If you are going to pay anywhere near to $50MM (I don’t believe it, personally) for Chapman you can’t be projecting him as a reliever. He can’t be worth it for the limited innings you get and the risk you take, IMO.
You have to project him as a starter to get into the $30MM to $50MM stratosphere.
m,
This all might turn out to be idle hype. Who ever knows with young players – especially pitchers.
The reason why I put this guy in a different category – the main reason is that he’s left handed.
If he was right handed with that stuff I would not say he’s a must sign.
It was a brief glimpse – but at the WBC I really did think his arm was better than Price’s or Kershaw’s. And they are by far the two top left handed arms to enter the game in years.
The yankees will never – never – have the shot to get a high end left handed pitching prospect like this in the draft. Righties will fall. Not southpaws.
That will have to come in the international signing market.
Chapman has less risk than the usual signee who is 16.
The yankees have the resources. This is the guy who you must get.
In many respects the outcome on this kind of guy is irrelevant. At this point in time all the franchise can do is collect all the information possible, evaluate this talent and make the best possible decision it can.
I just can’t see how betting big on that kind of arm is the wrong thing to do. For the yankees, for their resources, this is exactly the kind of high reward guy you target.
They will never get to draft this kind of guy unless they return to the doldrums of the early 1990’s. No one wants that.
JMO, he’s a must sign. And though I wanted them to sign Ynoa I didn’t think he was in this kind of category at all.
The Yankees will have the money to sign Chapman if they want to.
With Damon, Matsui, Nady, Pettitte alone coming off the books, they have the money to get Chapman and go get a corner OF next season.
What needs to happen here is Cashman needs to handle this player like he handled CC.
He has to set the market. He can’t tip toe around and let Theo get sneaky and creative. He can’t try to read Theo’s tea leaves either.
Just set the market and use the money advantage to your advantage instead of being ashamed of it.
Personally, if this kid is a LH Strasburg, I’d offer 60 million and tell him that the Yankees won’t be beat financially and want a chance to match any offer over that.
From Shelley Duncan’s twitter
Thankyou to everyone who voted. Found out I made the all-star team today. Pumped! Austin Jackson & Chris Stewart made it too. Should be fun
“Big deal, Cervelli chugs holy water before he starts.”
Actually he’s a direct decendant of God himself…if you don’t believe me, just look into his eyes!
Hal approved 180 million, and Cashman didn’t have to get on his hands and knees, to get Mark Teixeira.
They have invested another 20+ million on their new Latin American complex in the DR.
He just approved them to go almost 500K over budget to sign the 3 LA free agents they signed today.
Hal will approve the money if Cash wants to do the deal.
Hal won’t block it over money.
El Duque wants to pitch this year. Its going to be his last go’round as a player. That will have no impact as to whether or not the Yankees would bring him back in a coach/confidant capacity if they signed Chapman.
I think Arrendando and Vinicio are neck and neck as the best pure SS’s available. Lots of scouts like Arrendando because they believe his glove is more projectable at the position.
Either way, the Yankees and Red Sox did well today with their signings.
Boston Dave,
Yes, it would be a 6-7 year deal for Chapman. Similar to what Boston did with Dice-K. It buys out the arbitration years and perhaps one year (if its a 7 year deal) of free agency.
He will get a major league contract. I’m 100% certain of that.
Oh, I have no doubts the Yankees will be in on Chapman. But I can’t see them going all Dice-K like Boston did when they way overpaid.
So, if there’s mutual interest, I’m sure it can get done. And no question we have the deepest pockets, just ask John Henry. Too bad the Yankees aren’t public, maybe Henry could get back some of what he lost!
Can we please stop with the “getting El Duque back” posts.
He’s a member of the Texas Rangers. He’s on their team in AAA getting ready to pitch in the pen for the big club this season.
The Yankees cannot get him back if he’s under contract and belongs to another team unless you are planning on trading for him right now.
that and Priests go to Cervelli to get blessed
40 million coming off the book this offseason. I bet the Yankees can come up with a few more million buried int he stadium somewhere. Seems like a nice fit.
BTW – The Sox will have to spend a bunch of money to resign Bay (or get a replacement). They have to get a DH, the heir to Varitek. They are getting close to the re-upping Beckett and the big payday for Papelbon. They have some guys – Youk, Pedroia, Elsbury, Lester under control for awhile but they will also not have an unlimited budget.
i think we might be going a little overbored…i remember watching the WBC and watching this guy pitch and he was darn special for sure…but its not the yankees god given right to sign this guy..maybe he’ll pull a king felix and want nothing to do with NY?…its a lot to ask of them to spend minimum 30 mil on a 21 guy from cuba…but i sure hope they do!
quit saying $40mil is coming off the books like that’s why we’d go after Chapman…that $40mil is taking players with it meaning wholes will have to be filled.
He projects as a front of the rotation starting pitcher.
I think GLove nailed it.
I wouldn’t mess around and try to save pennies on the dollar.
Go in and tell the kid, who has told a lot of people over the years he wants to play for the Yankees, “here’s 50 million over 7 years and a pen, sign here”.
holes…
Everyone says they have interest in New York though. It sets up the market for them, letting other teams know they have to put up more money than they normally would because “he wants to be a Yankee”. I don’t really put anything into the fact that he’s said he wants to be a Yankee
“But I can’t see them going all Dice-K like Boston did when they way overpaid”
No posting fee involved. The posting fee was half of Boston’s outlay on the Matsuzaka deal. Contract-wise, he’s only making $8M or $9M per year. Sounds like that’s what’s being talked about here. 6 years/$50M-$60M
Hokie – It is a fact.
Pettite off the books replaced by Hughes.
Molina off the books replaced by Cervelli.
Nady off the books – is he really on this team.
Damon off the books – They may spend here or go let Jackson take over with Melky/Garnder in CF/LF.
Matsui off the books – Posada will DH more. Arod should probably DH a bit more. Maybe Miranda if he is not traded. Maybe Vasquez if he gets to AAA.
Not all 40 million will be available for Chapman, but I don’t think the Yankees look at it that way anyway. Besides Chapman is not 40 million per year it is what 5-6-7 million a season.
“that $40mil is taking players with it meaning wholes will have to be filled.”
Wholes??? You sure you went to Va Tech?
Why would we NOT go all in on Chapman? Because we have AJ Burnett already? No.
‘wholes’ – what you call it when you have to pay for it.
Hokiehill,
Hughes replaces Pettitte in the rotation at a discount.
Matsui is a part time DH. The DH at bats will go to Posada, Jeter, Arod next season and the team can sign/promote a low cost replacement for Matsui.
The team needs to sign/trade for a LF to replace Damon. Considering the market, you are going to get a player in LF for a fraction of Damon’s salary replacing him but you have the flexibility to spend there.
Nady’s 6-7 million you don’t have to replace and is coming off the books. We’re playing without him now. His replacements are already here.
And Molina’s 2 million will fall off the books and Cervelli will replace him at a fraction of his cost.
So all the Yankees need to spend on is a corner OF and some quality bench reserves who won’t make more than 5 million in their roles.
They will be saving a lot of money.
Steve B,
I understand the break down. In my eyes, they way overbid. Putting money in different columns doesn’t change the bottom line. They overbid.
I’m saying I don’t think the Yankees will pay ridiculous money to get Chapman because he’s a must sign, just like Boston felt they had to do whatever it took (including the overbid just for the right to talk to Dice) for matsuzaka because they felt he was a must sign.
Jason:
I’d bet dollars to donuts that Boston let’s Papelbon walk when he hits free agency after 2011.
GLove,
I think the El Duque talk is about next season when he’s done playing, in terms of giving him a job to work be Chapman’s mentor, should they sign Chapman.
King Felix didn’t turn down the Yankees. The Yankees went pennywise and pound foolish. They mistakenly thought Seattle wouldn’t offer more money and they did. If they made a similar offer, they would have signed King Felix.
Thankfully, the person who made the call no longer works for the Yankees.
Its different with Cuban players. Most, if not all the Cuban players I know or have heard about have two dreams….
Live in Miami and play for the Yankees.
Castro used to tell these guys stories upon stories about the Yankees when he was upright.
Many of them listen to Yankee games every night (when they aren’t playing) on the radio.
The Yankees have a real, tangible advantage here.
This is not some marginal guy like Kendri Morales or Alexi Ramirez, who defected because he lost his job in Cuba to Gourreal.
We are talking about arguably the best under 21 pitcher in the world right now. He’s that good.
If you got the Yankees cash, this is when you spend it, IMO.
Nick,
If you’re trying to get under my skin, it’s not working.
We have an ace who’s signed for 2 more years than AJ. And he happens to be a lefty ace.
G Love – beat you to it by about 30 seconds. Only disparity is I think Jackson may be in the mix or lf/cf.
Also, why not consider Chapman vs. Igawa. They Yankees spent a ton of money on Igawa. From reading SJ and CB (I have never seen the guy pitch), Chapman is about 500 times the pitcher Igawa is, young, healthy etc.
Steve,
Living in Boston and listening to Papelbon – he is absolutely, 100% about the contract, money and making more than Mo. He goes to the highest bidder NO QUESTION. That will in all liklihood not be the Sox.
CC, Joba, Chapman, AJ, Hughes – not bad.
Mel:
Remember the Yankees were about to go to $90M for six years of Matsuzaka themselves ($38M post and a similar contract). They don’t shy away from these things.
Get the checkbook ready Hal
Tell me the last player the Yankees didn’t get that they wanted because of money?
They may lose out for other reasons but money is never the reason.
jason,
Agreed. I saw your post just after mine posted. I don’t get the feeling that the Yankees aren’t going to be lopping a lot of salary off the books next season.
With the emergence of Pena, Cervelli and Hughes this season that makes it easy to let some high cost vets go.
But even if we retain some of the vets or sign other ones, the salaries for older players in the game have plummeted.
You will get a formerly 15 million a year guy for 5 million now.
Matsui will be lucky to get 5 million as a DH in the AL next year. Just ask Abreu…and he can still play the field…sort of.
Nick in SF on I-80 West
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Jorge got blessed? Big deal, Cervelli chugs holy water before he starts.
Chapman = Dynasty!
Chapman is not an ACE ! We should do 1 of two things: A)Sign and trade him for Johan Santana, who is an ace or B) put him in the 8th inning because that’s what you do with guys that pitch 100mph and have passable to good offspeed stuff in their early 20s.
I’m not trying to get under anyone’s skin but I disagree that the Yankees are too stuffed with pitching to do what it takes to get Chapman.
It doesn’t matter what the parent club needs are.
A guy like Chapman comes on the market, he’s a special case.
They didn’t need to spend 180 million on a first baseman in the off-season. They did because Teixeira was a special case.
Nobody fitting his profile was going to be on the market in the next several years.
So, Cash went to Hal and got “special case” money.
Its the same theory with Chapman.
There isn’t a pitcher in the states at the college or HS AND internationally in the next few years with his skillset. None. No one even close. That’s how good he is and he’s not even a finished product yet! That’s what is so exciting about him.
He’s a “special case”, requiring a dip into the “special case” money.
“Nick in SF on I-80 West
July 2nd, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Jorge got blessed? Big deal, Cervelli chugs holy water before he starts.”
Jeter has them both beat.
He hears the voice of God call out his name before each AB.
I would have to say that Sj is right…this is what the financial power of the Yankees should be used on, top young internation talent, not the Steve Karsays and Jaret Wrights of the world.
Perhaps the best thing about the Posnanski article is that he’s a Reds fan (and a die-hard one at that, judging by his blog).
It’s like getting an outsider’s view re-affirming something you’ve known all along. In this culture, it seems we enjoy nothing more than bringing our icons down. That’s what makes Mo the rarest of the rare. The deeper you dig, the more impressed you become.
Posnanski was obviously inspired, and when you couple that w/great talent as a writer that article is what you get. I loved this line from the piece:
“You know what’s coming,” a five-time All-Star Mike Sweeney once said. “But you know what’s coming in horror movies, too. It still gets you.”
SJ, since you’ve most likely had more dealings with the cost, evaluation and negotiations than possibly anyone on here, what do you set the highest price that the Yanks or any team would set will set? I’ve seen 50-60 mil tossed around this morning, but, where does the teams draw the line and say “forget it”?
Fine, Nick. Just wondering what AJ had to do with it.
Listening to the Mets game.
The people who dress up as animals convention is in Pittsburgh again this year and the Mets instead of Yanks are in town this time.
“Can we please stop with the “getting El Duque back” posts”
let’s not
m
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Fine, Nick. Just wondering what AJ had to do with it.
AJ would have to be part of the deal to land Santana and Omir Santos. That’s why Nick brought him up, I’m sure. AJ Burnett, Chapman, and cash for Johan and Santos.
Great Posnanski piece on Mo. I just love his writing, he is one of my favorites. His blog is also an excellent read for anyone who hasnt checked it out yet. Just read a funny quote somewhere the other day about how Royals fans are always the most intelligent baseball analysts because the front office makes so many mistakes that they become well-practiced in identifying organizational woes, heh.
Oh, and that Mike Sweeney quote is almost as good as the Tom Kelly one in 1996 about how Mariano should be illegal!
“put him in the 8th inning because that’s what you do with guys that pitch 100mph and have passable to good offspeed stuff in their early 20s.”
Ha! I knew this debate would start soon…the guy doesn’t have a passport and isn’t even a Yankee yet and the send him to the pen discussion has already started.
are people actually talking about getting El Duque to pitch for the Yanks or getting him to come back as some kind of pitching coach?
Let’s calm down a minute. Always a good thing to do before you spend $50MM.
Cast your mind back to 2007. Do you think Chapman is going to be better than we thought Joba Chamberlain could be then?
Would you have been happy if the Yanks had been paying Joba $7MM or $8MM a year since 2007? Would the Yanks have gotten their money’s worth yet? Are you going to be happy, and will Chapman earn that kind of money, if he has to take baby steps up the innings limit ladder (which he will have to do to protect the upfront investment)?
And that’s knowing how good Joba was in 2007. The sky may be the limit for Chapman, but there is a risk, a real risk no matter how excited you are, that Chapman won’t be as good as Joba. And we knew how good Joba was in 2007. Or Chapman may become as good, but only after 3 or 4 years of experience and years where he didn’t pitch more than 150 innings.
You simply have to discount for that. So if you are going to pay Chapman that kind of money up front, you have to believe he will become something awfully good, awfully durable, awfully fast.
SJ44
Thank you for all the valuable insight on Chapman’s details, today.
maybe it is the intrigue, but i have great interest/affection for Cuban baseball. Then again, maybe it is El Duque who is one of the greatest Yankees of all-time.
GB,
If I am representing Chapman, I’m using Dice-K as the benchmark for offers.
Chapman is LH, which is a premium, and is younger with less innings on his arm than Dice-K. Also a premium.
He doesn’t have as much international experience as Dice-K. But, his above premiums can outweigh that because he has had success at the international level.
Also, with the market limited for future “Chapman type” players, plus a weak free agent market, I think 6-7 years at 50 million is about right.
Now, the market softness and the economy could lessen that number by a little. Not by much though.
Add to it, one extremely important caveat. One that if I was advising the Yankees, I would really press to them…..
Castro is either dead (if you believe the rumors) or nearly dead. By all indictations, his brother Raul, while still a Castro, is not as hard line as his brother.
My point is, what if in another year or two, Raul opens up the country and allows these players to leave to play MLB? If he does, the Yankees are in prime position to be the lead dog in Cuba.
In George’s heyday, this was something that was always in the back of his head.
To me, along with his incredible gifts, its why I don’t believe the final number for Chapman is too rich for the Yankees.
He’s a must sign if healthy because the short term and potentially long term upside outweighs the risks in this special situation.
Cuban baseball/baseball players
Hokiehill — Sorry :X but I had to do it. I think the consensus is perhaps to hire El Duque in the off season as sort of a coach/instructor in the hopes that the legend of Cuban pitcher Orlando Hernandez may lure the big lefty to the big apple. Not giving him a rotation spot or anything.
The three things that make Chapman so valuable is he has amazing velocity, he’s a lefty and he has a great pitcher’s body. Reminds me a little of Randy Johnson actually.
Apparently he has a great change-up, I don’t know about that. From the video I watched, his offspeed stuff was weak. But that’s all stuff you can teach.
Sign him, get him with Nardi and he’ll be dominating the AL in no time.
“I think 6-7 years at 50 million is about right”
Matsuzaka’s contract was 6/$52.
“My point is, what if in another year or two, Raul opens up the country and allows these players to leave to play MLB? If he does, the Yankees are in prime position to be the lead dog in Cuba.
In George’s heyday, this was something that was always in the back of his head”
boy, i love this idea
Chapman is a better prospect than both Joba and Hughes.
If all three guys were in a draft, Chapman would be picked before either guy.
You have scouts who have been in the game their entire lives calling Chapman the “best LH pitching prospect they have ever seen”.
If Strasburg was on the open market, he would have gotten 50 million bucks this year and its a down economy.
Chapman will get that kind of money, IMO, as long as he is healthy.
“My point is, what if in another year or two, Raul opens up the country and allows these players to leave to play MLB? If he does, the Yankees are in prime position to be the lead dog in Cuba.”
SJ,
I was thinking exactly the same thing. Whatever happens with Fidel, I think it’s safe to assume that baseball in Cuba (along with all of it’s society) will change drastically in the next 5 years. It’s not going to stay static. Much too much change at the top for that to be the case.
The country is going to open up and with that the baseball structure will as well.
Look at the impact the DR has had on baseball. If Cuba has even half that impact or even a quarter getting a beach head there will be important.
If Chapman pays off he will be an enormous star all over Latin America and especially in Cuba.
Dice-K was not a kid and had a real track record over a number of years against a consistent and known level of opposition. Chapman does not.
Dice-K is not a good comp to Chapman.
Based on what I’ve been reading today, I’m going to have dreams about Chapman for the next week at least, lol. I read that he’d likely be ready for MLB by spring, but is that if he signs immediately? When is he expected to sign?
watching this Mets game can make you question why the Buccos have fans and then it makes you want to throw yourself out the window losing to them if your a Mets fan.
Wave Your Hat,
If David Price hit the open market back in 2007 how much do you think teams would pony up to get him? 30 mil? 50 mil?
I look at Chapman the same way.
If we did hire El Duque as a coach, it would only be to coach Chapman, right? Cause I’m not sure I want him teaching someone like Joba his “don’t throw a strike unless you have to” ways, haha! That only works for Duque, God bless him.
Patrick-
My point was in my 2:31 PM post. I’m trying to look at like it was a businessman.
Sure, as a fan I have no problem spending the Yanks’ money. If I were the Yanks, though, I might approach it a little more cautiously.
Dice-K is the perfect comp for Chapman because they will both be free agents.
In fact, Chapman has more upside because he has less wear and tear on his arm.
If Strasburg was a FA this year, and he has no track record compared to Chapman and Dice-K, he would have gotten close to 50 million on the open market.
When a player is a free agent, with no compensation lost for signing the player, and the player has Chapman’s skills, the money is going to be very, very large.
WYH — I think that’s important here. With Dice K you were bidding on a finished product who had consistent production in what the consensus says is at worst equivelant to our AAA and possibly better competition than that. Chapman hasn’t had that level of consistent competition. However, and this I think is a big caveat, we aren’t talking about the bass ackwards posting system we use when dealing with Japanese players. This is a completely open market and I think SJ has it right when he says the kind of money that will dictate.
Lefty, throwing 100mph, 21 years old? Strasburg is definitely a more fair comparable than Dice K and he and Bora$ are talking about 50m within the draft structure.
SJ44
July 2nd, 2009 at 2:32 pm
GB,
If I am representing Chapman, I’m using Dice-K as the benchmark for offers.
Chapman is LH, which is a premium, and is younger with less innings on his arm than Dice-K. Also a premium.
————————————————————
Thanks, SJ. I had seen you mention Matsuzaka’s pricetag at 50-60 mil but I was looking at the additional posting fee and looking at the 90-100 mil mark as the upper limits for the highest of the high rollers, but, that would also blow the MLB “inheritance tax” out of the water.
Much appreciate the inside info, or as inside as you can get. I can fairly judge talent (though, Gardner has been a bit of a surprise so far, and i blew that one)
My trouble would be in setting a dollar limit on them.
“Dice-K is not a good comp to Chapman.”
Even though he kicked Chapman’s ass in the WBC? ;0
I know there is no comparison in terms of pitching, but Matsuzaka’s contract does represent a benchmark.
I think SJ may be underestimating the costs. Matsuzaka got $52M and was only allowed to deal with one team. Chapman will be dealing with 4-6 I would guess and possesses a better resume.
SJ44-
Things aren’t perfect comps because they are both on the market.
To be a comparible, two things have to be alike in a number of material respects, to be similar, as it were, so that you can say if A is worth X dollars, then B is worth X dollars, or X+ or X- dollars. The free market is only the context in which comps exist, not the reason that they are comps.
Dice-K and Chapman are not good comps.
“My point was in my 2:31 PM post. I’m trying to look at like it was a businessman.
Sure, as a fan I have no problem spending the Yanks’ money. If I were the Yanks, though, I might approach it a little more cautiously. ”
No doubt, and I’m sure the Yankees will think hard about this before offering Chapman crazy money.
My point was simply that the market will dictate what Chapman gets, not the Yankees.
I agree, Matsuzaka isn’t the best comp for all the reasons you state. However, the best hypothetical comp would be David Price as a free agent in 2007 instead of entering the draft.
Price was the consensus #1 pick at age 21. Chapman is 21 and if he were in the draft he’d be the #1 or 2 pick. They are both hard-throwing lefties. Both would need a year maybe a bit more in the minors. Both have faced decent competition (college for Price, WBC for Chapman).
So keeping all that in mind, Price as a free agent in 2007 would get at least $50 mil. We have to assume Chapman will get the same.
“You simply have to discount for that. So if you are going to pay Chapman that kind of money up front, you have to believe he will become something awfully good, awfully durable, awfully fast.”
You have to believe he’ll be very good and that he’ll get to the majors reasonably fast.
But you’re not factoring in opportunity cost enough.
Ultimately, he’s going to be a free agent. That’s the opportunity. The only reason he can be acquired by the yankees. And there is going to be a substantial cost associated with that opportunity.
Dice-K may not be a perfect comparison but at the same time he cost $100M so the price isn’t nearly the same either.
I do remember the stink that MLB and the State department put up when George Steinbrenner when to Cuba for a visit with Fidel Castro. I thought for sure the Big George was going to sign Fidel to close for the Yanks.
Matsuzaka was never actually a free agent, was he? His rights were sold to Boston. How is can that be construed as free agency?
By the way, I wouldn’t spend $50MM on Price or Strasburg, either, and they are more of a known quantity than Chapman.
Young pitchers get hurt. Young pitchers take some time to develop. Young pitchers need to have their innings limit ramped up, and you can’t predict how long or short a process that is. Young pitchers may not work out.
All the above are why you cannot treat a very young pitcher the same way you would treat an established free agent. Given all the variables, $30MM to $50MM is a lot of money.
CB and Patrick-
Both your last points are good ones.
Steve B-
There was open blind bidding for the right to negotiate with Dice-K. So there was a free market, at least for the right to negotiate, just not the same as the usual one.
From Laura Posada’s twitter: Don’t miss our new show “Baseball Wives: The E! True Hollywood Story,” premieres Wednesday, July 8 at 10pm ET/PT on E.
WYH,
As the Yankees though, you’d have to. Other teams would most definitely pay $30-$50 mil for guys like that.
The Yanks got lucky with Joba. He’s the only guy of that caliber the Yankees have.
If you don’t pony up the cash to get a guy like Chapman you end up paying guys like Burnett $85 mil and Sabathia $150 mil or whatever it was.
You have to look at it as a baseball businessman….
There are no pitchers currently in the international high school and college markets the next couple of years who are as good Chapman is right now. He regarded around the world as the best international pitching prospect in the world.
Yu Darvish is in the conversation but, Chapman has more projectable stuff than Darvish.
Now, you take into effect the available teams in the marketplace and the cost for acquiring pitching.
21 years old, with his talent, no compensation lost (other than money) if you sign him.
Add to it, the possibility of being the lead dog in a baseball rich country if you sign him. Same argument when the Yankees signed Matsui and the Red Sox signed Dice-K.
Its not only a good business move, its a necessary business move.
A guy like this in your employ opens up enormous options for the Yankees.
Concievably, in 2011, you could have a CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes, and Chapman rotation. That’s potentially an insane rotation.
A must sign.
I want Chapman but I wouldn’t label him a “must sign”. I’m sure Boston, the Mets, White Sox, etc are all thinking the same thing. The Yanks can’t be expected to sign every big FA or international FA.
“All the above are why you cannot treat a very young pitcher the same way you would treat an established free agent. Given all the variables, $30MM to $50MM is a lot of money.”
Roster spots are more valuable to the yankees than money. Roster spots are scarcer than their cash is.
For a pitching rotation – they have 5 spots.
Unless the economics of the game are completely changed, I don’t see what the value of any free agent starting pitcher they could sign for $30-50M would be because i don’t think that guy would be worth the roster spot/ rotation spot given that they now have a decent stock of young pitchers who are cost controlled and can fill in the back of the rotation.
This is why they decided on signing AJ Burnett. They deemed his upside worth the roster spot/ rotation spot.
IMO that’s why it’s difficult to compare a free agent pitcher who would sign for $30-40M to the value of signing Chapman for that same amount.
There’s far more risk but there is far more value.
I guess I just like to be the devil’s advocate or a contrarian.
But, as the Yanks do have CC, AJ, Joba and Hughes locked up for a very long time, doesn’t that undercut the need for a fifth great pitcher? Isn’t it possible given the Yanks pitching strength, $30MM to $50MM could be invested more profitably elsewhere?
“I guess I just like to be the devil’s advocate or a contrarian.”
I like it too, that way we can get a decent discussion going
WYH:
Matsuzaka didn’t see a dime of the posting fee. He was property of his Japanese team. The Red Sox, and the Red Sox alone, were the only team he was able to negotiate with. It wasn’t really much different than being drafted. That’s not true free agency.
Chapman has true free agency. Matsuzaka saw $52M while being able to negotiate with one team. This guy is going to have several teams in the bidding.
Chapman as a FA is going to garner huge offers from Boston, the White Sox and the Angels before the Yankees even come up in the conversation.
When you have a guy some scouts feel may be the best young arm they have ever seen, the numbers are going to hit the 40-60 million dollar mark.
Especially when you are buying out 3 arbitration and perhaps one or two FA years.
Baseball business is not like regular business because you have to balance talent, money and where and when similar talent would be available to you.
Some young pitchers get hurt, some don’t.
Justin Verlander has been healthy for most of his career. So have CC Sabathia and Johan Santana.
Is it a risk? Every player you sign is a risk. Is it a risk worth taking? Absolutely.
Sometimes, the talent is too special and it overrides the risk.
“Isn’t it possible given the Yanks pitching strength, $30MM to $50MM could be invested more profitably elsewhere?”
Depends on whether you feel that investments in pitching are subject to diminishing returns.
And given the inherent injury rate of pitchers I don’t think that’s true.
Steve B-
I know. That’s why I said there was a free market as regarded bidding for the right to negotiate. Once that was established, yes there were marked similarities to negotiating with a drafted player, except that Dice-K always could have gone back to the Japanese league.
“But, as the Yanks do have CC, AJ, Joba and Hughes locked up for a very long time, doesn’t that undercut the need for a fifth great pitcher”
Putting the cart ahead of the horse, eh WYH? CC is great. AJ is not, never has been and probably never will be. Joba and Hughes aren’t yet and may not be. Same with Chapman.
But there is no such thing as having too many high ceiling pitchers, because sooner or later 1 or 2 or more will hit. Having pitching should not preclude the Yankees or anyone else from getting more.
No because you can never have enough pitching.
You stockpile pitching because guys get hurt.
You stockpile pitching because the more you have, the more assets you have in play to perhaps deal some of it to fill other holes on the roster.
There is no one hitting the open market in the next 2-3 years with Chapman’s skillset as a pitcher.
You sign him now and develop him, you have a guy that is a front of the rotation talent for a very long time.
Think about it, he’s 2 years younger than Phil Hughes and 3 years younger than Joba and most scouts will tell you his upside is greater than both of those guys, and Hughes and Joba have excellent futures ahead of them.
To spend what it would spend to get him is a drop in the bucket to the Yankees.
It also fixes their cost for a frontline asset for the next 6-7 years. Its hard to pass on that.
And so it begins. Rumors linking the yankees interest in Chapman. From Jorge Arangure twitter:
“#Yankees senior VP Mark Newman in an email to me on whether we can assume they will target Chapman “Safe to assume.” So it begins!”
http://twitter.com/jorgearangure/status/2440396516
“That’s why I said there was a free market as regarded bidding for the right to negotiate.”
Free for who I guess was my point. Certainly not Matsuzaka.
“except that Dice-K always could have gone back to the Japanese league.”
Actually, most people felt that in practical terms Dice-K had no real option to go back because it would have been such a public relations disaster given the build up of him leaving and the record fee his club was getting.
This seemed to be an absolute plank the red sox used as their foundation in the negotiations.
It would have been a disaster for Dice-K to go back after being so public with his desire to pitch against the best.
CB,
Kay is talking about him now. Olney is going to be on with him shortly to discuss Chapman.
Daisuke didn’t have much leverage. Supposedly his team back in Japan threatened him to try and get him to sign with the Sox. If he hadn’t they would have been out $50 mil.
Thanks SJ. I don’t usually listen the radio. Thanks for the heads up.
Everything people are saying about Chapman now, they were saying about Joba back in 2007. And Joba was in the major leagues and pitching.
But if Joba had been given $50MM for 6 years starting in 2007, it would be close whether or not he would earn it. If I had to guess, I’d say yes, but he has to be worth a lot at the back end to justify the amortized cost of $50MM over 6 years taking his limited innings in 2007-2009 into account.
The Chapman analysis is similar. Plus, as he’s not in the majors, and has some issues as we speak, you need to build in the risk factors and the chance he won’t be near his amortized cost in the early years of his contract. You can’t ignore them.
I know there is a value just in denying him to the Red Sox or LA. And I see CB’s argument that it gives the Yanks a leg up in negotiating the next contract. But I’m still not convinced – it will be interesting to see what happens.
I’m going into my 3rd year at Fordham this fall, I’ve come in contact with Fr. McShane many times. He is the greatest. Great priest, great university president, most of all, great man.
And he’s a huge Yankee fan! I’ll have to make sure to tell him in the fall that I was there last night and saw him throw out the first pitch.
God’s clearly a Yankee fan too.