Greetings from Gate G-16
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jul 10, 2009 
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Good morning from the Frank “Sweet Music” Viola International Airport in Minnesota. We’re here waiting on a 9:15 a.m. flight to Orange County, Calif.
I realize this is supposed to be the space where I make some kind of semi-funny remark about traveling. But today has been free of issues. Got a cab, got here quickly, got through security, got some orange juice and found the gate. It should always be like this. The problem were the thousands of people standing along the highway hoping to catch a glimpse of Brett Favre once he lands.
As for the Yankees, they have three games left before the All-Star break and are tied for first place with the Red Sox. It’s sort of hard to believe the Yankees are 0-8 against the Red Sox, right?
The Yankees are 51-26 (.662) against other teams and the Sox are 43-34 (.558). Strange. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays have a better run differential (+79) than either Boston (+72) or New York (+71) and are 4.5 games out. More strangeness.
Before this road trip, I suggested the Yankees would go well to go 3-3. Having vastly overestimated the Twins, its time to revise that obviously. 5-1? 4-2? They Yankees have won eight in a row on the road and that streak will end eventually. But it’s a nice roll.
They’re calling the flight, time to go and catch a nap. Check back later for the lineups.
Hokiehill, if he wants Doc, he’s got the pieces to do it. I don’t think he’s got the cajones to pull the trigger though. The Santana situation was the Twins dropping the ball. As I remember, Cashman pulled the deal off the table when they took too long.
Have a great flight Pete!!!
At this point 3-3 would be a huge disappointment. They need at least 1 from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
You can thank Wang’s first three gems for the lower differential. Matter fact, just take out the 22 to 4 game and the Yanks dif blows them away.
“At this point 3-3 would be a huge disappointment. They need at least 1 from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”
careful, I said that yesterday and was admonished by several for it.
FWIW Jon Heyman was just on WFAN. He said it is 60-40 the Jays will trade Halliday and the front runners are the Phillies, Giants and Angels.
Safe travels Pete.
To all the fine people of Minnesota standing on the highway:
Don’t drink Favre’s Kool-Aid !
Would that be like us standing on the Van Wyck hoping to catch a glimpse of Curt Schilling?
Hokiehill-I agree, we need one, preferably more.
Let’s not blow first place too soon.
I don’t get why people hate Favre so much. The man wants to play, fine. Can’t decide yet? Not my problem.
From last thread
FIP
Tom Tango’s Fielding Independent Pitching. Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
Hokiehill
July 10th, 2009 at 9:47 am
“At this point 3-3 would be a huge disappointment. They need at least 1 from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”
careful, I said that yesterday and was admonished by several for it.
***
Thanks for the warning. I will look for my battle gloves and warrior mask.
Tonight is prob a Loss, unless Joba is very very good, Tomorrow is the swing game, and you have to think that sunday is a win with Big C on the hill.
Amazing. I never heard of FIP. What will they think of next
For a long time I thought WHIP was With Hitters in Position. Then I realized that actually didn’t make much sense at all.
Sometimes its more fun to make up acronyms
I hope Joba gets his fastba;; back.
I miss the old Joba.
fastbaLL
Last year the Rays’ record was better than the run differential would project. It’s the opposite this year.
The team seems to be really coming together. Just need to settle the # 5 starter and teach Pettite to pitch in the Bronx and all will be right in the world.
“Tonight is prob a Loss, unless Joba is very very good, Tomorrow is the swing game, and you have to think that sunday is a win with Big C on the hill.”
Why do you give them a win in that game? Yanks are 9-9 in CC starts and he will be facing Lackey whom the Yankees never hit well. I say Joba needs to give them a big outing tonight and go into the break with some confidence. He hasn’t had a good start in weeks and is continuing to show how he should have been sent to the pen a long time ago.
Meanwhile…what does everyone think about adding BJ Ryan? Low risk/high reward move???
Got to love statistics that use arbitrary numbers. I can see why it is considered independant but there are still other variables involved. Park dimensions being one. That’s one thing the pitcher isn’t responsible for.
Well, factor out the tremendous outlier 22-4 game and the Yanks’ run differential is dramatically enhanced. I’m sure Tampa and Boston each have an outlier of their own, but probably not of that magnitude.
Evan-9 and 9 in CC starts is almost certainly an aberration and Lackey is not the same pitcher.
Have a safe flight Pete
Any truth to the rumor of:
Halliday & Wells
for
Joba, Damon, & Melky
I personnally don’t like it.
I think you’re right DB…I’m not investing much hope that a deal happens with the Yanks and Jays on this one. And personally I’m not sure I’d want one to, but that depends on what we’d give up and I probably won’t know that unless a deal happens or comes close so I’m not investing much more thought into that either.
Wasn’t Ryan throwing in the low 80′s? I know he is low risk but, he sounds pretty done to me.
Anyone get annoyed at the stats? Like when people tell you stuff like “pitcher X is having a fine year.” And then you say, “his ERA is over 4!” and then they say, “Yes but look at stat X”.
Or “hitter A is helping the team a lot (I’m looking at you Swishy).” To whic you say, “Come on, he’s batting under 250!” And then they say, “Yes, but if you check these stats…”
What’s really annoying is that they’re normally right.
IDCWYT-I’d do it.
I don’t care about Joba’s velocity.
I care a lot more about his progress as a starting pitcher and learning his craft.
Trusting your stuff, being aggressive, and throwing strikes is the key to getting big league hitters out no matter the pitcher’s velocity.
The Giants, Phillies and Brewers can easily land Doc. The pitching/position prospects in thier organization are VERY viable.
Bumgardner and Cain alone could land him
Drabek Bastardo Taylor Marson would be the best combo they could ask to land (since the Yankees won’t deal quantity or add Jackson or Montero)
Milwaukee is heavy too
End of the day Doc either is delt to the NL or stays in TOR until the winter.
“Meanwhile…what does everyone think about adding BJ Ryan? Low risk/high reward move???”
Most probably that would be a low-risk/low reward move, unless the Yankees see something mechanical that can be straightened out. Of course, the Yankees have problems with their own pitcher’s mechanics, so that is not likely. I heard yesterday that talk is Ryan is done and probably won’t be getting his velocity back. Whether it is the injuries or lack of the big S, who knows, but it looks like he is done.
I would have signed for 3-3 going into the trip but after going 3-0, I said yesterday that I would be disappointed if they didn’t get at least 1 in Anaheim.
Changing the rules for them mid-stream is like welching on a bet so disappointed may be a little harsh. I however would still like another W or 2 or 3 before the break.
“Any truth to the rumor of:
Halliday & Wells
for
Joba, Damon, & Melky
I personnally don’t like it.”
None whatsoever, that was Boomer and Carlton + a fan.
IDCWYT-It depends on if you think Halladay makes up for losing Damon and Melky…Gardner would take Melky’s spot and Wells Damon.
Wells for Damon is a pretty big losss, but I think more than made up for with a gain of Halladay.
Joba I leave out because we always knew either him or Hughes was out.
This is hypothetical of course. I’m not buying the rumor.
Franco-I think that is directly linked to his velocity.
We’ve discussed this before.
“Low risk/high reward move???”
I’m with Mark in Tampa…low risk/low reward. The guy has some major issues and very few teams, if any, have someone on their staff who can fix them. I’d bet he gets a minor league deal somewhere and he might as well take it seeing as the Jays have already paid him for this year more than he would deserve for the next couple of years.
Any truth to the rumor of:
Halliday & Wells
for
Joba, Damon, & Melky
I personnally don’t like it.
**********
No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No
There is NO trading of MPB Johnny Damon. Brian Cashman, you and I will be THROUGH
IDCWHT, Damon would not be involved in a trade. His contract runs out this year. There would be no long term return, which is what teams look for when they are rebuilding.
I wouldn’t make any move right now that costs a starting hitter from the 25 man roster. They are playing together really well right now, who knows what losing Damon and replacing him with Wells would do. That would put Swisher as the everyday no 2 hitter. I am not willing to see that.
Did you just make up that rumor?
Wells has almost $ 100 Million coming over the next five years. That will be a very difficult contract for even the Yankees to ingest.
Damon has a limited no trade and I’m sure blocking that would be a high priority.
Just what we need, another goofy stat to be misused and misunderstood.
don’t worry to much erica, I don’t think your pretend dude is going anywhere this season…although he probably won’t be back next season
don’t worry to much erica, I don’t think your pretend dude is going anywhere this season…although he probably won’t be back next season
***
I am not ready/willing to accept that yet. Lets see how the second half of the season treats Damon.
SJ44,
Brett Tomko is the difference between winning a world series and not winning a world series?
Uhhhhhhhhh that opinion makes my head hurt.
Normally, I’m all over the run differential stat, it’s a *really* good indicator of how good a team is. However, if you take out that one game Wang pitched against the Rays, the Yankees would have the second-best RDIFF in baseball behind the Dodgers.
Knowing things like that, and seeing how the rotation is starting to come together (let’s get moving Joba!), I’m really excited for this season.
Cardinal Rule of Trading: Team out of contention wants cheap assets with potential and long term rights. Team in contention wants help now.
Don’t worry Erica, your Damon is safe.
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN July 10th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Franco-I think that is directly linked to his velocity.
We’ve discussed this before.
————
No, it’s not. Not at all. Aggressiveness and throwing strikes has nothing to do with velocity.
He does have three other pitches.
Big start for Joba tonight- can he finally give us legnth?
And I am one of the guys extremely concerned about Joba’s velocity- velocity is not normally this inconsistent, even from young pitchers-
and stop throwing 2-2 and 3-2 sliders EVERY time!
Franco-Joba as a power pitcher needs to have a plus fastball that he can get by people even if he makes mistakes.
The fact is, you mess up w/a 90-93 MPH fastball it’s getting crushed.
94-96? Not as often. You could get away w/it more. This is important because his control is not the best.
I think the velocity drop contributes to the idea of him “nibbling”. He doesn’t want to make a mistake, so he doesn’t attack the zone.
Wait why is the decision for Melancon between Robertson and Albaladejo when there is a pitcher in the bullpen clearly worse than all three of those guys? His only skill is that he can poorly pitch multiple innings, which is something that Albaladejo can do just as well. Melancon should be in for Tomko. But of course, Tomko is “fresh” since he didn’t pitch yesterday. Yikes.
DB
July 10th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Cardinal Rule of Trading: Team out of contention wants cheap assets with potential and long term rights. Team in contention wants help now.
Don’t worry Erica, your Damon is safe.
****
You are right. I was so busy panicking at the sight of MPB Johnny Damon being included in a trade rumor that I failed to notice the lack of logic in the trade
Franco- if you don’t feel as comfortable with your fastball becasue of a dip in velocity it will certainly affect your agressiveness-
Tommy H-Yes, that is exactly what I’m saying.
No I didn’t make up the rumor. Someone called me this morning and asked if I had heard about it. Naturally I came herew because this blog is the best source for info on the Yankees.
I don’t make the trade because I don’t like Wells. Now if they would include Alex Rios, I would have to think about it.
“Franco- if you don’t feel as comfortable with your fastball becasue of a dip in velocity it will certainly affect your agressiveness-”
Agreed…especially if the decrease in velocity dramatically changes the dynamic of your preferred out-pitch. Joba has no problem getting to 1-2 or 0-2 counts, but he has a problem slamming the door on those guys.
Although, the counter-argument would be that Joba has always had issues with his high pitch count as a SP…
Tommy H July 10th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Franco- if you don’t feel as comfortable with your fastball becasue of a dip in velocity it will certainly affect your agressiveness-
—————–
That’s part of the learning process and learning the craft of pitching.
No matter the velocity – the game plan is still the same. Throwing strikes and pounding the zone.
Maybe Joba is more comfortable pitching on the road in bigger ballparks?
The numbers certainly seem to suggest that. His best outings of the season were all on the road and didn’t walk many hitters – Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland.
Home: 0-2, 5.36 ERA
Road: 4-0, 2.74 ERA
Halladay to the Jints would give them a frighteningly good rotation, but (Pablo Sandoval notwithstanding) their lineup would still have some major holes. Someone has to fight Dem Bums for that division, though. As a right-hander who would face a lot of lefties at Pac Bell, I’m not sure Halladay wants to deal with that RF short-porch.
I’m not sure the Phils have the horses to send back. Neither Happ or Bastardo has been overly impressive at the ML level so far. The Phils also have park issues as they play in a hitters’ park all ’round.
Halladay to the Angels, depending on who they give up, would be just as bad as Halladay to the Red Sox. The Halos have kind of been scuffling along all year and the addition of Halladay would IMO make them the team to beat in the American League playoffs…Lackey/Weaver/Saunders/Halladay, you don’t even need a bullpen.
The game plan should be the same, but as a power pitcher like Joba you’ll see more mistakes being crushed w/o a plus fastball.
Success breeds confidence.
We’ve seen many times that Joba amps up his game when he starts to get into a rhythm.
Maybe a strong couple of innings tonight to start the game will get him going and start pounding the zone with a little more regularity.
I don’t think he’s ever going to be as good as we originally thought unless he gets his fastball up to 94-96 consistently like in Cleveland and last year at Boston vs. Beckett.
Otherwise, he’ll just be good.
I hope he does well today.
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN July 10th, 2009 at 10:26 am
The game plan should be the same, but as a power pitcher like Joba you’ll see more mistakes being crushed w/o a plus fastball.
—————
How many times has Joba been crushed this season?
He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of 14 starts this season. He got spanked his last outing but those games are not the norm.
The kid is a battler. He doesn’t get crushed very often at all. Period.
Are we sure the lack of velocity is technical and not strength related? I mean in this day and era anyone whose performance goes backward must be suspected of not eating his pills properly. If it’s a technical issue then its different but…
Franco-Not what I meant by crushed. I meant getting crushed out of the ballpark for a HR.
That is one of his issues at home. Maybe that’s why he does better on the road.
A plus fastball would help.
TLVP-No, we have no idea.
And while Joba may not get “crushed” I’m not calling the idea that he gets high pitch counts and has to be taken out in the fourth or fifth after allowing “only” 1 or 2 (or 3)runs as battling. I’m calling it getting high pitch counts and doing badly enough that a lot more runs would have been allowed had the pitch count been lower.
Anyone watch Yankees Kids on Deck? (ok, I do..but only if it happens to be after a Yankees game. :rolls eyes:) Joba did a segment on power pitching and said that all of his power comes from his legs and his legs have to be strong.
I’ve heard the argument on here, more than once, that Joba wasn’t in shape in his lower body this year which is why he is lacking power. He obviously knows all about his legs, is it just because he hasn’t gone at them at Clemens type intensity?
ok, some I’m terrible at emoticons..
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN
so should we let the cat out of the bag and ask ourselves if Joba’s problems is related to him not taking his steroids?
TLVP-Possible, but I doubt it since he’s shown a plus fastball at some occasions (see Cleveland game) and the velocity on his breaking pitches is fine.
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN July 10th, 2009 at 10:35 am
And while Joba may not get “crushed” I’m not calling the idea that he gets high pitch counts and has to be taken out in the fourth or fifth after allowing “only” 1 or 2 (or 3)runs as battling. I’m calling it getting high pitch counts and doing badly enough that a lot more runs would have been allowed had the pitch count been lower.
——————
Whatever you say.
But I’d bet Joba would be having similar issues whether he was throwing 95-96 MPH or not.
Why?
Because there are only a few guys like Tim Lincecum who come in and dominate from the get-go.
Most young pitchers have very similar issues with their command (David Price?) no matter their velocity.
Franco-I don’t get what you mean by “whatever you say”.
But I’ll agree that all young guys struggle. However I’m betting in Joba’s case a very large part of it is inked to the velocity disparity, if I’m using that word correctly.
DB July 10th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Anyone watch Yankees Kids on Deck? (ok, I do..but only if it happens to be after a Yankees game. :rolls eyes:) Joba did a segment on power pitching and said that all of his power comes from his legs and his legs have to be strong.
I’ve heard the argument on here, more than once, that Joba wasn’t in shape in his lower body this year which is why he is lacking power. He obviously knows all about his legs, is it just because he hasn’t gone at them at Clemens type intensity?
————–
I think that has a lot to do with it.
He did have a rough offseason (ie: DUI and mother’s arrest) and he is just 23 years old.
Perhaps he was distracted a bit over the offseason and didn’t hit boot camp like he should have.
It happens to seasoned veterans, too. Johnny Damon a couple of years ago is a prime example.
I am far from giving up on Joba. His stuff is even better than Hughesie’s. I like him as a starting pitcher. But for him to reach his potential as a strter I think he needs to get his fastball back upto what it was in Cleveland and vs. Josh Beckett at Fenway.
I agree with you Guiseppe- but I’m more concerned wtih what I’m seeing from him stuff wise than the results.
I expected strugles for sure- but I thought his stuff would be much more consistent-
inked is linked.
TLVP, it’s possible…it’s also possible that the hype got into his head and affected his conditioning or off-season drive…the DUI situation probably did not help in that regard either. Maybe issues with his mom are playing into his head as well. There are a miriad of factors that could be causing the issue with Joba…this day and age it’s very easy to point to steroids, and that will be the case for a long time, but it’s just as likely that one of the other 100 possibilities are causing the issues.
Four days and Heyman has had 4 different stories about where Halladay will land.
What does that mean? He doesn’t have any idea what’s happening so, he is just throwing stuff against the wall hoping something sticks.
There are NO “frontrunners” for Roy Halladay right now. That’s not how trade talks works.
Here is a crash course on how trade talks work……
1. JP gets the word out he’s shopping him.
2. He fields CALLS, not OFFERS right now. There isn’t a single team who has given him a name of a player to trade for Halladay this early in the process. Not how it works.
3. Once JP gets a handle on legitimate team interest (ie: teams on Halladay’s approved list and teams with the money and assets to do a deal), he sends his scouts out to see players from interested teams. After that work is done, and he receives reports on such players, he moves onto the next step in the process.
4. Which is, beginning to set parameters with the interested teams. In other words, “Just because Baseball America says a certain player is a top prospect, he isn’t to us so don’t offer him for Doc or I am eliminating you from the list of suitors”.
You don’t do all of the above in 4 days.
Guys like Heyman have to fill words in a blog or column everyday. So, they put themselves on “Halladay Watch” and try to connect the tea leaves. Its all BS.
NOBODY knows where he is going right now and there aren’t any frontrunners for his services because NOBODY, not even the Jays, know if interested teams have the pieces to get it done.
Its still too early in the process for that.
looking from a considerable distance at Joba’s performance this season, personally I think that the issue is mental, which has affected the physical aspects (like mechanics)…
it’s similar to the case of Hughes last season. coming off of injury with a ton of hype constantly around you and being a young guy with the world at your feet in NYC…we can only hope that Joba has the kind of rebound that Hughes is enjoying now. And as the case has been with Hughes, I imagine a solid performance or two will get Joba some confidence and he will right the ship…whether that comes this season or next I don’t know
Some of you are extremely amateur sports fans when it comes to trades. All of you have cited that the Blue Jays would not want Johnny Damon because they want young players.
Let me help something explain. Vernon Wells has 100 million dollars remaining on a contract that J.P. would love to move. If the yankees were going to take on wells and Halladay they would absolutely need to remove an expiring contract. This move would significantly help the Jays going forward because they would be rid of that awful contact. I definitely do not think this trade has any validity but for those of you denouncing the trade because of JD’s contract and age you could not be more misinformed.
Joba needs to learn how to pitch first. Then he can use his velocity to his advantage.
pitching matchups post is up
Johnny Damon has a no trade clause in his contracct. He isn’t waiving it to go to Toronto and play on turf.
Try again.
SJ —
You skipped a step. I would think Ricciardi spoke with Roy Halladay before he announced his willingness to “listen” so he probably always has an idea as to which teams Roy would consider.
The reports about them initially trying to package Halladay with another contracdt problably came from one of those teams you mentioned in phase two.
The All-Star break will be very busy for the Toronto GM
If the Jays can’t get anyone to bite on another contract then Joba or Hughes will have to be in any offer along with another arm, a catcher and a SS.
If Wells’s contract wasn’t so horribly, horribly bad, I could make the case for the Yankees to be able to take it on. Matsui’s $13MM per falls off the books at the end of the year, but Wells gets $20MM per year from 2011-2014 (and $12.5MM next season)…in golf we say “That’s probably not going to play.”
Now Alex Rios is another story entirely. Although he’s kind of a jerk, I would take him if it meant we could get Halladay at a discount for helping Toronto dump salary. Melky or Gardner would go to TOR in the deal and Rios is your new center fielder until A-Jax is ready next year. At that point, Damon leaves to free agency, and your OF is Rios in RF, Jackson in CF, and whoever didn’t go to Toronto in LF.
Rios is due $11-13MM per year for the remainder of his deal, which matches perfectly with the $13MM coming off the books when Matsui leaves. Damon is also leaving too which frees up money for Halladay.
What exactly is making people think tonight is a loss? I don’t have tons of faith in Joba but he’s pitched WAY better on the road, and Saunders has been awful his past two starts.
Your airport names are always entertaining. Been reading the blog for a year or two now and I love it. Have a great trip, keep up the good work and Go Yankees!