Today in The Journal News
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jul 12, 2009 
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The Yankees played the Angels and they lost, which is usually what happens.
Alex Rodriguez homered twice to move into the top 10 all-time. This notebook also has updates on Joba Chamberlain, Eric Hinske, Robbie Cano, Bobby Abreu, Damaso Marte and Angel Berroa.
The Baseball Beat hands out some awards.
Sam Borden’s writes that we never really know athletes until it’s too late.
To acquire the six-time All-Star and 2003 Cy Young Award winner, the Yankees would have to send a major league-ready arm like Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain to the Blue Jays along with once-untouchable talents Austin Jackson and Austin Romine, the New York Post reported Saturday.
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Thats it?
Joba, AJAX and Romine – send the plane to get Doc right now!!!
on a side note – doesn’t halladay and washburn look like they could be brothers?
“‘I can appreciate it. It would have been nice to do in a winning fashion but I can appreciate it,’ said Rodriguez, who in February admitted to at least three years of steroids use.”
Actually, Pete, in February he admitted to three years of steroid use. So now we know that he used for at least three years, but that wasn’t his admission.
It’s funny how people keep making the same mistake over and over again. Don’t you realize that stacking the deck never works for this team? How many freaking big name, big contract stars are you going to acquire before you realize it is a formula for failure? It never works. When you stack a team with an overabundance of all star mercenaries it robs the team of its soul, of its passion. What this team should be doing is getting away from that trend.
Actually Sam Borden, I do know my athletes very well, what I don’t know – nor do I care to know – are the people behind the athletes. These are people with extraordinary talent and that’s what I pay to watch. If I wanted to see good people play sports I can walk down to the softball field any weeknight and watch friends I know botch double plays and hit pop-ups. I don’t understand why we need athletes to be “good” as well. So much of their goodness depends on their upbringing while their talent is just an inborn gift. To ask for the two to intersect on a regular basis is irrational.
One year ago today Bobby left us.
Good post Tidrow. I agree 100%
Carl Crawford as a Yankee ? Would love to see it happen.
http://www.tampabay.com/sports.....017698.ece
The players you acquire determines a teams “soul”. Not just keeping homegrown players.
If you have homegrown players who aren’t passionate about the game, don’t work hard, and are prima donnas, how does that help your team? Look around the game. There are plenty of teams that have homegrown players like that, which is why they never win.
Conversely, if you acquire guys who have passion for the game, work hard and want to win, don’t you think the “soul” of the team benefits from that?
There is no one way to build a ballclub.
This past off-season, the Yankees signed 3 free agents, “stacking the deck” if you will, and by all accounts, those guys have been huge in creating the “soul” that currently exists with this team.
You make moves to make your team better. That’s the priority.
Sometimes, the best moves you make are the non-moves. Other times, a trade or free agent acquisition benefits your team.
Its not a one size, fits all equation.
Tidrow
July 12th, 2009 at 10:26 am
It’s funny how people keep making the same mistake over and over again.
Don’t you realize that stacking the deck never works for this team?
How many freaking big name, big contract stars are you going to acquire before you
realize:
it is a formula for failure?
It never works.
When you stack a team with an overabundance of all star mercenaries it robs the team of its soul, of its passion.
What this team should be doing is getting away from that trend.
=======
IT is a formula for failure, and it robs a team of something else: it future.
I am chuckling reading “ONLY Chamberlain and AJax and Romine?”
How far Joba has fallen around here in people’s eyes.
The Sins of the Father redux. No thanks.
Cashman, if you really do read this thing, please run – far – in the other direction.
This team isn’t exactly 8 games out of first place. They just lost two road games – know what that makes them in their last 10 on the road? 10-2.
Leave it alone, look within, or do a tweak that doesn’t completely overturn the ground the seeds are planted in.
Oops – meant 8-2, lol.
The Rays almost have to pick up that option, but they are probably losing money with the current payroll, and some other guys as the article points out are due major raises.
There would a stink down there if they moved him, but when you don’t have a lot of fans there isn’t that much stink. Craford would be an amazing pickup for this team, but it would cost at least Austin Jackson and a top arm (McAllister?). It’s something to think that next year Crawford will make $ Three Million less than Matsui and Damon are making this year.
I wish I knew if the Yankees have determined any of the key young guys are 100 percent off limits so we could streamline our trade speculation. The would think the possibilities for that list are Joba, Hughes, Montero, Austin Jackson, McAllister and Romine in that order.
Sometimes, the best moves you make are the non-moves.
Other times, a trade or free agent acquisition benefits your team…..
And this is not one of those times.
“He also recalled the Brooklyn Dodgers of his youth and the way rosters remained largely intact for entire generations. And he talked of the poignancy of Crawford getting his American League championship ring in a ceremony this year.”
How could Tampa owner Stuart Sternberg recall ‘the Brooklyn Dodgers of his youth’? Dude was born in 1959!
Let’s “assume” the Yankees don’t want to add significant payroll, because all dollars cost them $1.40 for luxury tax purposes, unless they can trade away $$$$ in return.
Second let’s look at teams that are 12 games or more behind in their division races and “assume” they might be willing trading partners, and let’s assume the other teams still in the race for a wild card need pitching also.
Orioles
Indians
A’s
Diamondbacks
Padres
Nationals
Which pitchers would interest you, both starters and relievers, and at what cost, from the above “out of the race” teams? Let’s also look at non rookie pitchers with current sub 4.00 ERA’s and pitchers having pitched > 20 innings so far.
George Sherrill
Cliff Lee
Zack Greinke
Brian Bannister
Joakim Soria
Dallas Braden
Michael Wurtz
Brad Ziegler
Doug Davis
Dan Haren
Max Scherzer
Chad Qualls
Scott Schoeneweis
Edward Mujica
Heath Bell
Cla Meredith
John Lannan
Sean Burnett
Joe Beimel
Ron Villone
Mike MacDougal
What would it take given the above parameters? Who do you think we realistically have a chance for without giving up Jackson, Montero, Joba and Hughes from our roster?
I agree that CAN be a formula for disaster if you constantly use your best young players to acquire veterans past their prime.
Was Roberto Kelly for Paul O’Neill a disaster? Trading for Tino Martinez? Marquez for Swisher?
SJ said it very well. You have to get the right personalities, but I would add you need guys in or approaching their primes. Trading for Halladay makes sense if the price is reasonable (which I admit is a very subjective standard). Going after Carl Crawford if available is the right thing to do, but trading for Jose Guillen or Jermaine Dye is less sensible with their advancing years.
Just stay the course gentlemen (and ladies). Overcoming adversity builds character. The struggles of Joba, Robertson,Melancon etc. are only a bump in the road. These are talented kids who i feel are good enough to get through these tough times and be better players and people for it in the long run. Just look at Gardner, Cano and Hughes. If you left it up to alot of fans on this blog these guys wouldn’t even be on the team after the struggles they endured last year. A little perspective is needed here.
How do you know? Most fans, and teams for that matter, heavily overrate their own prospects.
People here want to put 20 guys off limits under any circunstances in the farm system. No team in MLB operates their farm system that way.
Its one thing to love prospects. Its another to heavily overrate them.
Championship Yankee teams have always had a mix of players. Homegrown, trades and free agents.
The one, underlying factor has been, they have been pretty smart the last 20 years of knowing which prospects to keep and which to trade.
Since 1990, how many prospects have the Yankees traded that have turned out to be outstanding ML players? Not many.
The farm system has depth to overcome almost any trade proposal for Roy Halladay absent a few guys.
Doesn’t mean they are going to make that trade. However, overrating everyone in the farm system isn’t going to keep them from making such a deal.
They are going to upgrade this team. They know they have a shot at winning this year. They also know their chances decrease due to the last 3 slots in the rotation because of injury and unsteady performance.
To upgrade, they are going to have to give up some talent. They know that and the system can withstand such a trade because there is depth throughout the entire system. That’s why a big market team builds up its farm system.
SJ, that’s true. I posted about this a few days ago – Tex, AJ and CC have been breaths of fresh air. I think these guys really wanted to be here and fully committed themselves as New Yorkers, not just Yankees. Yes, I understand CC would likely have preferred the West Coast, but I think he went all in once he made his decision; he’s no reluctant Yankee. AJ seems to just adore wearing pinstripes – he makes no bones about it in his interview.s. Tex has worn a permanent smile since the press conference. These guys work hard, they mentor (not sure about Tex, but I know AJ and CC do) the kids……they are invested as Yankees and care about the future of the Yankees.
I think getting attached to all prospects is not a good thing, but there are some that are more equal than others……like Joba and Phil – and I can’t blame anyone for not wanting to see them succeed with another team.
Tidrow –
not sure what you are talking about – more than half of the yankees starting lineup is full of “homegrown” talent – when healthy 3/5 of their starting rotation has “homegrown”
talent –
not sure how you define “soul” but if anything the one person who demonstrates that he doesn’t care about winning is cano – who …wait for it…is a homegrown talent…
without these “mercenaries” as you put it the yankees would be a .500 team struggling to stay out of last place…
you’re not winning anything if your starting rotation at this point is joba, pettite, hughes, rasner and chase wright and your lineup has cano , jeter, posada, ransom, ajax, gardner and melky in it..
chambelain’s stock hasn’t fallen – if anything you are saying that he is so good that you’ll be able to get one of the tyop 3 starting pitchers in baseball for him…
you will never be able to field a team of only “homegrown” players unless you’re OK with finishing closer to last every year than first…
“How could Tampa owner Stuart Sternberg recall ‘the Brooklyn Dodgers of his youth’? Dude was born in 1959!”
No reason to let the facts get in the way of a good story!
If Tampa Bay picks up Crawford’s option, I can’t see any way they trade him to the Yankees. They talk in the article about growing a fan base, they wouldn’t lose a lot of fans by trading Crawford, unless they traded him to us or the sox. I think 1/2 of their fans would walk away. I think they also realize that if they decline the option or let him walk after next year, Crawford would be in Pinstripes faster than he can turn a double into a triple.
SJ — Do you consider anyone “untouchable”? Right now I would be inclined to limit that category to Hughes and Montero. The next closest duo is Joba and Jackson followed by McAllister and Romine.
Whatcha think?
Tampa will NOT decline the option. They will trade him if they decide they cannot afford him. And as usual they would rather not trade him within the division, but if the Yankees put together a great package they’d do it… hell, he’d sell some tickets every time he returned.
“I think they also realize that if they decline the option or let him walk after next year, Crawford would be in Pinstripes faster than he can turn a double into a triple.”
Or a Red Sox, a Met or anyone else with the $$$$.
SJ, your 10:46 post is spot on. This team is very good – the FO is not going to let a chance like this slip away. They will determine which players they must keep for the future and which they like well enough, but which they are willing to sacrifice for the short term. You can do this if you have enough good young players and if you trade for the RIGHT people (re: not a washed up veteran in a panic deal).For instance, the Yanks can trade one of their young catchers…..they have depth there. I’m not sure they can trade Jackson – he’s the only prospect that’s close enough to sniff the major leagues.
At worst, we will be 3 games back of the Sox – we are still 4 ahead of the Rays (not sure how far ahead in the WC race we are – anyone know?).
I see people panicking and already stating that the team can never ever beat the Sox or Angels – that the losses to the Angels have pointed out fundamental flaws in the makeup and construction of the team. It’s two freaking losses, lol. The Yankees have some things to fix, but guess what? The Sox do, too. I really just want to make the playoffs – I don’t care how they do it, WC or division. If they get there, they have a shot (though I admit I would not want to face the Angels)
Trader,
Of the Non-Halladay types, Brian Bannister would be a good addition. He’s a groundball pitcher, can fill in the back end of the rotation and the cost wouldn’t be Halladay-like.
You can’t acquire a flyball pitcher to pitch in Yankee Stadium. That’s one adjustment they will make for the ballpark.
In terms of “adversity building character”, that’s very true with players. You always find out more about players when they fail than when they succeed.
You also have to be realistic about their talents. Not everybody is the “next Bernie Williams”, the “next Mariano Rivera”, the next, “Great #1 starter”, etc.
There are less than 400 players in the history of baseball in the Hall of Fame for a reason. Its because they are rare birds. Fans ALWAYS overrate their teams prospects. Not just Yankee fans, ALL fans.
Just read a Red Sox blog. Every guy in their system has already set the date for entry into Cooperstown according to their fan base. Most will never play one year with the Sox.
The teams who run their farm system best are one’s who are brutally honest (behind closed doors of course) about their stable of talent.
They will hype certain guys to the media to get people excited about them and to lure opposing GM’s into including them in trade talks. That’s because they are confident said hyped player isn’t as good as the hype.
The Dodgers used to be masters at it. They would roll out the stats of their minor league guys in AAA all the time. Their numbers would be off the charts. Mainly because they were playing in altitude. They would deal so called “studs” for upgrades and get the better of most deals.
Its all about knowing your talent better than opposing teams know them. If you do, you tend to make smarter deals.
joba,romine,ajax?
in a second.
we have enough catchers,ajax can be replaced & halladay makes us much better than joba for at least a few years.
burnett
cc
halladay
pettitte.
nice.
i would not be upset if we didn’t do the trade but it would give us the division imo.
joba is struggling.i know he might get better but we don’t have time to let him learn on the job with a payroll of over 200 million.
if he was doing ok that is one thing but right now he is regressing big time.
Cano doesn’t care about winning ? LOL
You have to get the right personalities, but I would add you need guys in or approaching their primes.
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That’s right – you get guys approaching or in their primes: that is the key if you want to win for a long time.
Multiple championships occur when an a core of young players come of age together.
It’s why I fear Tampa WAY more than Boston.
LOOK at Boston in 2004; bunch of high average, high OBP mercenaries with 3-4 sluggers – an optimal beer league team.
They won a championship -and got swept the following year in ALDS – couldn’t even win a game. Boston dissembled that group and added in some defense and youth through their system. They had to wait three more years, but they won another championship.
Our run doesn’t ever happen without the Jeter/Bernie/Pettitte/Mo quartet – and later, Posada. Pettitte was a baby and so was Rivera. We had a combination of veterans and YOUNG position players.
2 games ahead of Angels/Rangers
Incredibly enough, the Yankees DID beat the Angels in the first two games at YS earlier this year. Does anybody remember this? I wonder if LA fans went out looking for bridges to jump from? Actually, I wonder if they even knew or cared.
I’m not advocating a 25 man roster of homegrown talent. I’m ok with signing free agents or making a trade to strengthen your team. What i’m against is every time a big name player comes on the market the Yankees have to have him. What i’m against is the impatience people have with obviously talented players like Joba who when they struggle people want to ship them out for the newest toy on the market. What i’m against is this we need an all star at every position mentality alot of Yankee fans have. You don’t need 5 aces to win a championship folks. Just ask the Phillies.
If you want to formulate a monster trade, since Tampa will not be trading Crawford, and Holladay will not be coming to the Yankees because of the prohibitive cost, look to the Diamondbacks, if many of you are willing to give up some of our young talent for reasonably priced contracts.
Go ask for Dan Haren and Justin Upton, and tell me what you’ll give me, if I’m the Arizona GM.
m
No need for good things when they were winning but in light of the last 2 days, you are right. It was time.
1. Robbie hit with RISP
2. Mo and Hughes are rested and ready for today.
That’s all I got.
One point that has not really been discussed in the Yankees degree of flexibility is pitching injuries and its impact on NY’s options.
At the beginning of 2009, arguably the Yankees pitching depth shaped up to be:
#6: Hughes
#7: Aceves
#8: Kennedy
#9: Kontos
#10: Igawa
#11: Hacker or Garcia
#12: Garcia or Hacker
Looking at this, Kennedy, Kontos and Garcia are lost for the year due to injuries/surgury, Hacker was dropped.
Obviously Hughes was added to replace Wang and then Hughes was needed in the BP to add some stability there.
Aceves was needed in the BP due to injuries to Marte and the ineffectiveness and injuries to Bruney.
Igawa is #10 on the depth chart and is shaky to say the least.
Bottom line, most if not all, of the Yankees top 5-6 internal options to reinforce the ML roster are shot, which really puts the team in bind.
I believe it is best to put Hughes in the SP role and leave him there, for the remainder of 2009. If and when Wang comes back, Wang is the one who should the 6th guy or Long relief guy until he proves he is 80-90% of the Wang of old.
86,
If I had to guess, and its only a guess, I think Montero is the only REAL untouchable guy.
By “real” untouchable guy I mean, there isn’t a scenario that could be presented to them that would make them trade him. No combo of players for anybody.
Hughes or Chamberlain, whichever they value more highly, is probably the next “untouchable” guy.
They would NEVER trade Hughes AND Chamberlain in the same deal. Or even in seperate deals. Not even worth talking about.
For the right guy, such as Halladay, they would trade one of them, IMO, because they know they have no shot at getting him otherwise.
In that scenario, that’s where you have to trust your internal evaluation of which one of them will be better in the long term. If you are right, and get Halladay, you are genius. If you are wrong, and the guy you deal becomes great, you get fired. That’s how it works.
Austin Jackson? Not untouchable. Doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a chance to be a very good ML player. He does.
However, “untouchable” prospects have the chance to be ELITE ML players.
I don’t know a single scout who has seen Austin play that will say he is an “elite” player and Austin is a favorite of many scouts.
What seperates Montero from Austin is his bat comes along in a prospect once every 7-10 years. Its that rare.
Add to it the position he plays, and he reaches supreme “untouchable” levels.
Tidrow
July 12th, 2009 at 10:26 am
It’s funny how people keep making the same mistake over and over again. Don’t you realize that stacking the deck never works for this team? How many freaking big name, big contract stars are you going to acquire before you realize it is a formula for failure? It never works. When you stack a team with an overabundance of all star mercenaries it robs the team of its soul, of its passion. What this team should be doing is getting away from that trend.
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cc,burnett,tex are why we are doing so well in addition to the kids.
i think if the right balance is reached it works.
the 90′s yankees signed tons of players that built that dynasty.
the difference now is that cashman built a nice farm system.
the red sox did it also with drew,becket,lowell,ortiz,manny,etc…
it can be done but you have to have a decent system to replace injured or ineffective players or trade for the right players.
if the rs don’t trade for becket would they have won 2 ws???
i doubt it.
randy johnson,kevin brown,weaver,etc were the wrong players & too old.
if you say that halladay does not make us much better giving up joba,ajax,romine you are wrong as long as cashman keeps replacing our prospects.
you can’t keep every prospect or trade them all.the right balance has too be reached.
where are the rays without garza,kashmir???
Great, Phil and Mo are rested for today. Phil should have been used yesterday as we needed him yesterday. This is Phil’s problem – he’s constantly being saved for something or someone. First he was being saved for Wang’s starts and now he’s being saved strictly for the 8th inning. The kid can pitch 2 or 3 innings at a time – and I think I’d rather see him in the game than Robertson or Tomko. Pat – fyi, this rant is not against you, but against Joe Girardi’s type of thinking.
Did you see this video of Jay Bruce? http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com.....8;c_id=cin
Very strange that the trainer allowed him to continue moving his wrist. Looks like the same thing Matsui did.
Benfica, thanks!
SJ44
July 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am
How do you know? Most fans, and teams for that matter, heavily overrate their own prospects.
People here want to put 20 guys off limits under any circunstances in the farm system. No team in MLB operates their farm system that way.
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All I’ve heard is how Yankee fans over rate the team’s prospects.
That is just B.S. It’s the opposite: most have no regard for the top guys in the system and what’s more, those people have never or rarely seen them play. Easy to discard what you’ve never witnessed.
Read here – and in other forums; Yankee fans are ready to ship out Montero, AJax and Joba/Hughes for a 32-year old pitcher who WILL begin to decline, since age is not on his side, no matter how durable he is.
Willing to cough up a guy who potentially could hold down CF for the next decade – a position that is HUGELY relevant to the ENTIRE pitching staff in the most symbiotic of ways – and, I might add, a position everyone has been hollering hoarse about because they consider Melky low-rent and are merely hopeful about Gardner’s future.
And no one, to my knowledge, wants to clutch 20 farm products – just a handful of blue chippers who may be critical to our future, long-standing success. That is sanity talking – not fanboy infatuation with “prospects.”
Don’t get it twisted.
Time to see if there’s any organic corn left.
Let’s not let one bad series against a team that has the Yankee’s number cloud first half reason. The Yankees have played very well since the second week in May. Virtually no one on the club is having a career year. I expect strong second half performances from A-Rod, but also Joba and CMW. I don’t expect a blockbuster deal, like Halladay. Like Ernie Accorsi once said of the Giants, “There’s a championship in this room.” This team can win. And when they make the playoffs, CC and AJB give the Yanks the best top heavy rotation in the AL (and the best Yankee rotation since 2003). This is not a team opponents want to face in the playoffs.
Upton is one of two guys on that team that can hit, he’s 21 and makes no money. There’s no package on earth that gets him.
Haren is terrific and signed for three more years with about $ 38 Million guaranteed. To get him you also have to take Eric Byrnes and his $ 11 Million for 2010.
I would offer Wang or Joba, Austin Jackson, Juan Miranda and John Rodriguez. Gives them some possible young bats and a replacement in the rotation.
The $$$ hurts this year, but Byrnes?haren will cost about the same as Pettite/Wang/Matsui
Tidrow
July 12th, 2009 at 11:00 am
I’m not advocating a 25 man roster of homegrown talent.
I’m ok with signing free agents or making a trade to strengthen your team.
What i’m against is every time a big name player comes on the market the Yankees have to have him.
What i’m against is the impatience people have with obviously talented players like Joba who when they struggle people want to ship them out for the newest toy on the market. What i’m against is this we need an all star at every position mentality alot of Yankee fans have.
You don’t need 5 aces to win a championship folks. Just ask the Phillies.
===========
Tidrow,
you make good, and what should be obvious, points. Don’t diffuse them by bunching them into a blob that is hard on the eyes.
Agree with everything you’ve said.
Hope lineups are posted when I return.
I’m sorry but the people who are against getting halladay a really stupid. He is one if not the best pitcher in the game and with a rotation of Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay beats the Boston rotation and makes us a better team then Boston which I believe is the best team in the AL.
For those of you who say we should go the homegrown route only make no sense because during the 90′s the yankees had some homegrown players but more FA’s who were a fit and provided. Pitching is what wins and what gets you to the world series, and can any of you count on joba or andy in a playoff game? I think not. During the 90′s we had pitchers like cone, wells, hernandez, clemens, and a young andy. A pitcher like halladay changes the equation and personally I am tired of Chamberlain’s antics and immaturity, I like the kid and I know all kids struggle but you can see that hughes has a better make-up then chamberlain, and I wouldn’t care if he was traded away for Halladay because the yankees already have a lot of pitching in the farm.
86
Wang has very low trade value now, at least until he comes back and is performing adequately. If he performs as the Wang of old, is trade value goes up significantly. Until then forget it.
Essentially then you’re proposal is Austin Jackson and Joba for Haren (Miranda and J.Rodriguez are throw ins). Creative deal but if ARI wants to unload Byrnes too, then definitely A.Jackson gets removed from the proposal in my mind and a lesser prospect such as Melky or Swisher gets exchanged.
Haren is a real good pitcher and I would give up a Joba for him, and I still think the world of Joba.
Making trades involving young players is a necessary part of building any team. And there’s always risk involved on both sides.
Met fans keep talking about how they don’t want to give away the farm right now to fix their team – they can’t afford to give away their “best” prospects.
That’s very similar to what they were saying before the Santana trade. And they wound up giving up nothing. Delios Guerra – remember him? He was the high “upside” guy in that trade. He’s still in the low minors and has lost his velocity.
That same winter the other big move was the Marlins trading Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the tigers. The trade really was Cabrera for Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Miller and Maybin were both arguably top 15 prospects – and they have turned out to be significant dissappointments. Almost no one sees miller as a front line starter. Maybin still hasn’t shown he can come close to hitting major league pitching.
That said the when you look back at that winter the team that most properly evaluated talent was probably the Yankees.
Add Santana to the 2008 yankees and it’s still wouldn’t have been close to a world series winner. The team was too old and had way too many holes.
But people didn’t see that – so many people insisted that the yankees needed an “ace.” And that if they got Santana he would lock in the world series.
Just like teams over rate prospects they often over rate what the composition of their current major league roster are and it’s needs.
And it’s easy now, in the same way, to think of Halladay as some kind of “lock.”
And there’s no such thing. Not even close.
Roy Halladay isn’t going to help the yankees hit and their offense has been almost as bad in the post season as their pitching has been.
And here’s the rub – where would the 2009 yankees be without Phil Hughes and to a lesser extent Melky? It would not have been pretty.
A year ago the notion of trading Joba would have been laughable on this board. Anyone proposing it would have been mocked to no end.
And now people can’t give him away fast enough.
Reminds me a whole lot of the how people couldn’t give Hughes away fast enough for Santana.
People who wanted to keep Hughes were derided as “prospect huggers.”
Right now – if you could take the next 5 years of Hughes career at the money he’ll be paid vs. the next 5 years of Santana’s career at the money he’ll make, which would you want?
It’s easy to overrate your own teams prospects.
It’s also very easy to overrate the increased marginal probability a veteran acquired in a trade will have on helping your team win in the short term.
Anybody who reads the exteme trade offers on the blog discount them because they are unrealistic.
The belief that Austin Jackson can hold down CF for the next 10 years is a fan statement. There is no guarantee of that.
He may not even make the Yankees next year. He’s a nice player. He’s not a surefire star. Don’t overrate him like you did Christian Garcia.
However, most people who post here and are talking about a Halladay trade, are talking REALISTIC trade offers for him.
Whether your like it or not, Chamberlain, Jackson, Romine and a lower level prospect for Doc is not a “let’s throw the prospects away” offer. Its a fair offer from the Yankees side for the player.
Toronto may not take it. However, every one of those guys can be replaced within the system and 25 man roster and it makes the Yankees a better team for the next 3 years.
Big market teams, in fact most teams nowadays, think 3-4 years out. That’s all you can do. Nobody assembles a team and says, “I’m thinking 10 years out”. Market conditions change too quickly to be so rigid in that type of thinking.
Roy Halladay is 32 years old. He’s not “old”. In fact, he is probably a surer bet to pitch into his later 30′s because of his style of pitching than Josh Beckett, for example. He’s Mike Mussina that pitches to contact. Those guys are gold in terms of durability.
i hate the Angels more then any other team (including Boston)
not overracting. I have felt this way, for a while
I hate that ******* team
right now we might not have what it takes too win it all.
might.
halladay makes us much better because romine & ajax are not helping us now & halladay replaces joba.
we are light years better with halladay replacing joba.
do we really wan’t too take a chance with how close we are & with all our talent,a new park & a 200 million dollar payroll too not try & get halladay???
can we keep all the kids & do well?
yes but halladay taking the mound instead of joba eliminates all the stress involved with watching him pitch.
i just think with the pitching debth we lost,pettitte & joba struggling we are light in pitching.
the last thing in the world any of us wan’t too see is the dodgers in the ws against the rs.
how much would that hurt???
get halladay.
“I know all kids struggle but you can see that hughes has a better make-up then chamberlain”
Didn’t we just have a discussion about 2 months ago about how Joba was so much tougher than Hughes because of the way he grew up? That Phil could never be tough because he grew up in a nice loving family? Now, Joba struggles, Phil pitches well, and Hughes has the better makeup, while Joba is trash because he got a DUI and his mother makes/sells meth!
One of the reasons why I didn’t want Santana (in addition to not wanting to trade Phil) was because he didn’t guarantee a thing. It’s not his fault – but look, the Mets didn’t even make the playoffs and they were in a much weaker league.
The Yankees don’t need a Halladay (though I would love to have him), but they do need two quality SP and they’re going to have to pay through the nose (just because they’re the Yankees). I would certainly make an attempt to get Doc, but Phil for me is an untouchable. I would really hesitate also to trade Joba……but I might do it.
If the Yankees make the post-season, there would definitely be concerns about the offense. They’d be facing much better pitching -they won’t be able to beat up on crappy SP or middle relief. They just waste so many opportunities, and against good pitching, you have to take advantage of the opportunities you do get. I have high expectations for them and yet I don’t want to have those expectations because they have let use down in the past. I guess there’s nothing that can be done – what’s strange is that the same guys that used to get things done in the clutch have been the same culprits who’ve not done so for the past 4 or 5 years.
CB,
All of that is true. Which is why I’m saying the Yankees are very confident in the way they evaluate their own prospects.
They balance that against their needs.
From their perspective, its that balance that will be in play if they get into it for Doc.
I don’t think anyone is “throwing away” Joba Chamberlain.
If Joba Chamberlain were to ever be traded for Roy Halladay, it speaks to what Toronto thinks his potential is rather than him being thrown away.
Also, the Santana and Halladay situations aren’t comparable.
When Santana was on the market, there were real questions about the condition of his shoulder and knee because of the shaky second half he had with the Twins. The Yankees and Red Sox were also worried about whether a guy with his frame would hold up over the next 5-6 years.
Its a little different with Halladay. He’s healthier, bigger and his style of pitching tends to lend itself to being more effective for a longer period of time.
They also now have Sabathia and Burnett, giving them more quality depth in the rotation.
They also have CC with an opt out in 2 more seasons. That may also play into it.
I’m not saying, “Get Roy Halladay at all costs”.
I’m saying, its not going to get dismissed out of hand by the Yankees because they love all of their prospects.
They may say that publicly so guys don’t get upset about their names being out there in trade proposals.
However, if its at all possible to get Doc at a cost while hurting a bit, can be absorbed through the system, I think its naive to think the Yankees wouldn’t pull the trigger on such a deal.
I don’t want Roy Halladay on this team mainly because I don’t think Roy Halladay wants to be on this team. I remember him not being too fond of New York or Boston in past comments. He is content to be in Toronto and he should stay there.
I can’t stand it when we’re always willing to trade our talent away. Sure, Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. I cannot deny that. The movement on his pitches is fantastic and it indicates that he’ll probably remain good for a long time, despite that he’s in his early 30s already.
But I’m not willing to give up in-house talent like AJax or a Robinson Cano, plus others. Montero is a no doubt, untouchable.
The only trade I’d be willing to do would include Romine, Wang, and possible Betances. And that just isn’t enough to get Halladay. And I honestly don’t care.
This team is better off with what we have in the long run. Giving up on our prospects and trading them away has had the tendency to bite us in the end. Looking around at all the players that “could have been” can get depressing. Look at Kazmir and Carlos Pena, for instance.
Some trades make sense. Sometimes we get a steal.
This trade won’t and can’t be a steal, so we need to back away and look at other options.
It hasn’t ceased to amaze me how far off Joba has fallen in everyone’s eyes.
At the beginning of 2008 he was the most untouchable prospect in our system and now you all can’t wait to deal him.
Joe P on RAB sums it up very well:
“The problem with all this Joba trade talk is illustrated right here. Young Yankees fans have never seen a pitcher come up with growing pains. The last one to develop, Wang, came up and pitched fairly well in his first year. There were also no expectations for him, making the whole thing a ton easier. Even the last one before that, Andy Pettitte, came up and pitched well.
Just think about that. Between 1995 and 2009, the Yankees have brought up and kept two pitching prospects. This kind of thing happens with young pitchers. They get shelled. Have patience.”
charleston,
Many opposing players speak ill of BOS or NY, they just are not comfortable places to play. Then there are some players that go out of their way to insult NY (such as Oswalt and Griffey Jr), to me these are guys I wouldn’t have wanted regardless.
I imagine at the stage in his career, Doc is looking to perform on a big stage with a chance to win a championship undoubtedly he knows that pitching for TOR in the AL Beast, makes that outcome extremely unlikely, so I think he would be open to NY if the $ and years make sense. Similar to CC and Tex, it would be a business decision.
Doesn’t Halladay’s contract go through next year? Why do I keep hearing that trading for Halladay makes the team better for 2-3 years when he would only be here for one and a half seasons?
It seems likely that he will get a decent contract, but an extension isn’t guaranteed.
I am not against a trade for Halladay (just to make it clear).
Wasn’t Joba expected to be a lesser pitcher (before he came up) than Hughes and Kennedy? He might just be living to his potential now, and just pitched out of his mind. He could be good. He could be a flop. He could be in between.
Yankees21: You can’t assume whether a player will or will not like playing for any certain city unless you hear it straight from his mouth.
You can’t know when a team’s offense will go into the deep freeze in the postseason.
I’ll take my chances with an offense that leads the league in .OPS and let the chips fall where they may. Call me crazy.
However, the Yankees have three holes in their rotation.
Pettitte is doing it on guts, and guts alone at this point. He just gives up too many baserunners. It’s not realistic to expect him to put up a string of consistent performances anymore.
What you saw yesterday is what he is – barely a No.5 starter.
Joba is a bullpen killer. He can’t get through five innings.
Hoping that Wang can return to his form of two and three years ago is wishful thinking.
So you have three starters that can’t get past five innings consistently. That does not a championship team make.
How can Roy Halladay – a guy who on even his less stellar days can give a solid seven or eight innings – replacing one of those pitchers in the rotation not help the Yankees exponentially?
Austin Jackson is not the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. Forecatsing he’ll lock down the CF spot for the Yankees is foolhearty.
If Jackson, Romine and Joba is what it takes to get Halladay, the Yankees would be silly not to make the deal.
From 1995-2009, the Yankees won 4 World Championships, played in 6 World Series, and made the playoffs 13 times.
Is that more important or is “developing young pitching”?
That’s what I mean about “prospect hugging”.
Where is this “the Yankees are trading ALL of their young talent away”? Really? Not in the last 13 years. Hasn’t happened. Again, fear over something that hasn’t happened.
Winning triumphs development. The key is balance.
There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t KILL for that 13 year run.
How did the Yankees do it? A mixture of homegrown talent, free agents and trades. Not by “developing young pitching”.
SJ,
I’m sure the team is looking into getting Halladay. No way they couldn’t look at it very carefully. It would be negligence not to.
That said I do think this situation is very similar to the Santana situation. You bring up concerns about Santana’s physical condition now – but to be honest anyone who brought up those concerns in that winter was largely dismissed out of hand. He was still Santana and still an “ace.”
It’s only now 1 1/2 seasons later where it’s become more obvious that he’s not the same pitcher that people are acknowledging those concerns – concerns about Santana’s health that in the winter of 2007 were dismissed in the overzealous be all and end all need for an “ace.”
And Halladay is 4 years older than Santana – so that decrements his value in ways that are analogous or even more than Santana’s shoulder and frame.
And I’m sorry SJ – Roy loses some velocity on that cutter and the ball doesn’t bore in on lefties like it does now he has to surrender the inside part of the plate. And then he’s a different pitcher. Age is age. No one is immune.
This Halladay talk isn’t even remotely close to the frenzy that was Santana – the team was in much greater need of pitching at that time. That’s probably the biggest difference. Not the difference in the players – the difference in the yankees.
But Halladay has a no trade clause – like Santana. And right now people are completely misreading who has leverage in this trade.
That winter Santana was traded we heard one ridiculous trade proposal after another because people completely overrated how much leverage Bill Smith had in that trade.
Smith didn’t have leverage. Santana did.
Just like now JP doesn’t have leverage. Roy does.
Halladay is not going to command the premium price people think unless one team goes into an irrational frenzy and over bids.
Which is what JP is going to hold out and wait for some team to do.
He’s stuck. Just like Bill Smith was.
I read that Halladay has a long list of teams that he would not accept a trade to. NY and Boston were not on the list.
In many ways Joba is still in his developmental stage. He had, what, less then 100 innings in the minors?
Wang and Pettitte had between 80 and 100 starts in the minors before they were called up. I once read where Jim Kaat wrote that pitchers need 75 or so starts in the minors before they should be called up. I don’t mean to sound like Randy, but maybe Joba was rushed…
Trading Austin Jackson will likely increase the chances of Matt Holliday or Jason Bay coming here. Another big money contract? No Thanks!
FYI: Jesus Montero is starting for the World Team in the Futures Game, 2pm Eastern, on ESPN2.
Manny Banuelos was also selected to play in the game.
I think we’re seeing, first-hand, how valuable Aceves is to the team out of the bullpen.
By giving the team long relief innings, he’s pretty much been able to help the team mask poor Joba and Andy starts; now the team can’t do it with a bullpen full of short relievers.
It’s kind of amazing how one player in such an ostensibly minor role can mean so much for the team.
SJ,
That’s not a very good argument considering the “prospect hugging” with Stick and Showalter is the primary reason the Yanks won four championships:
Bernie Williams, Pettitte, Jeter, Posada, and Mo
Sure, guys like Cone, Key, O’Neill, Martinez, Wells, El Duque and others were enormously important as well.
But the reason why this team won was the young core of the team.
A major upside of getting Tex (in addition to being a great player) was subtracting him from the Sox.
I can see Theo and company trying to turn tables with Doc.
I think the Yankees will be fine without him, but only if he doesn’t go to our chief competitor. If Doc goes to the Sox…
Rebecca
I wasn’t assuming any player wouldn’t come to NY, in fact I was making the opposite argument with respect to Halliday.
Trevor,
One has nothing to do with the other.
The Yankees and Red Sox are on Doc’s list of approved teams.
CB,
You are correct, Doc has a lot of leverage in this because of the no trade.
All I’m saying is, the likelihood of him holding up physically over the next 3-4 years is pretty solid. As solid as it is for young pitchers these days given the way TJ Surgery, shoulder surgery, etc seems to keep cropping up with many of them.
Mo has been throwing his cutter 90-92 this year and getting outs. If Doc’s cutter loses velocity, but still gains movement, like Mo for example, its still an effective pitch.
The key is though, he can pitch to all 4 quandrants of the plate. There aren’t 5 pitchers in the game today who do it as well as he does.
That’s why he’s a better bet IMO to hold up physically and performance-wise over the next 3-5 years.
Tim Lincecum’s first year as a starter ERA: 4.00
Matt Cain’s first year as a starter ERA: 4.15
Joba so far, has not been all that great ERA: 4.25
Rebecca:
Yes, Joba needs time to develop.. He’ll be fine. I am not concerned about his numbers as I am about the team-level frustration and his arrogance.
In many ways the Yankees were lucky. When they traded for Tino they gave the M’s the choice between Pettitte or Hitchcock. The Ms chose Hitchcock. If Jim Bowden didn’t want to stick it to the Boss he could have had Rivera and Posada for David Wells in ’95.
Roy can get tips from Mo on his cutter like he did at last year’s ASG, lol – then he can pitch until he’s 40.
“How can Roy Halladay – a guy who on even his less stellar days can give a solid seven or eight innings – replacing one of those pitchers in the rotation not help the Yankees exponentially?”
Halladay could repull his groin and miss two months of the second half. How about that?
And if you don’t think that’s a non-trivial risk in a 32 year old pitcher your taking it too lightly.
One thing that I can guarantee you is that Halladay wont’ help “exponentially.” Not even remotely close.
We keep hearing terms like this – “exponentially,” “light years better.”
People are completely overestimating his impact – largely because they aren’t factoring in the issue that Halladay this season would only make 15 or so starts for the team.
He’s not going to be close to “exponentially” better. He will be better on a linear scale at best. He will provide substantial value but it will be on an incremental scale.
Halladay is on pace to be a 7-8 wins above replacement pitcher. Let’s assume Joba continues to be very bad and he turns into a 2 win above replacment pitcher.
That means in the second half Halladay would be +2-3 wins over Joba.
That’s around his value.
And that’s not close to “exponential” or “light years better” value.
If you are going to make a franchise altering trade you better know in a very realistic way what value you are getting back.
Off the books after this season :
Damon – $13M
Matsui – $13M
Nady – $6.55M
Pettitte – $5.5M
Molina – $4M
That’s over $42M and would conribute toward Halladay, another LF, and some aside for Derek Jeter’s next contract after 2010.
Most of the time, it’s very difficult to develop young pitchers while trying to win a WS championship. If those young pitchers hit the ML without losing stride like Wang and Pettitte have done then there is no problem. However, if those young pitchers are like 95% of their development group that struggle learning how to be consistent and effective ML pitchers, you have a major conflict between development and winning. For the Yankees it’s even more of a problem because of the size of their payroll and the high expectations from fans, media, and the Yankee ownership.
Pedroia to skip the ASG.
http://tiny.cc/mcxGN
I’m just saying, Joba’s numbers are normal even for an outstanding talent” in their first year as a starter.
In many ways the Yankees were lucky. When they traded for Tino they gave the M’s the choice between Pettitte or Sterling H.. The Ms chose Sterling H.. If Jim Bowden didn’t want to stick it to the Boss he could have had Rivera and Posada for David Wells in ’95.
“not sure how you define “soul” but if anything the one person who demonstrates that he doesn’t care about winning is cano – who …wait for it…is a homegrown talent…”
Not sure I agree with your assessment about Cano not caring. If hitting over .300 in every year of your career sans 1 is not caring then I think I’ll sign up for that every year.
By the way, your guy who doesn’t care is having a better year than the guy who’s the reigning MVP of the league and who obviously cares a lot.
Let’s say Doc has the Phillies, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox and Yanks on his list. All JP has to do is get those teams involved in a bidding war – specifically the Sox and Yanks -and he WILL get a ton for the guy.
GF,
It was balance. As good as the core was, the pitching staff, minus Andy and Mo was entirely purchased or traded for.
Its about balance. Ironically, the Yankees probably have had more homegrown players on their roster the last 12-14 years than Boston.
Yet, all we hear is how the “Yankees trade all of their good young players”. That’s not true.
The Yankees are good at knowing WHO to trade for better players among their young players. They hits in that area have been far greater than their misses.
They just don’t receieve any credit for it from the ESPN’s and the Baseball America’s of the world.
Young pitchers have never/rarely been allowed to struggle in NY. There have been 5 “blue-chip” types that I can remember in the organization since ’80, and before Joba/Phil.
1981-Dave Righetti-never really struggled, but was moved to the pen(temporarily, I think) and never returned.
1984-Jose Rijo-struggled in the pen, traded in the Rickey Henderson deal, I believe as a throw-in.
1986-Doug Drabek-maybe most applicable here. Pitched OK, traded for Rick Rhoden b/c of his experience, and from 1987 on, Drabek was the superior pitcher. Rhoden declined from the start of ’87 on.
Al Leiter- Traded b/c of injury issues, Yanks didn’t want to stick with him.
Brien Taylor- We were, of course, robbed of ever seeing him.
It would be nice to see the Yanks have some young aces be aces with the Yanks. But, the Yanks did win 4 WS with just Andy Pettitte as a home grown star, and not really the ace of the staff, at that.
“Mo has been throwing his cutter 90-92 this year and getting outs. If Doc’s cutter loses velocity, but still gains movement, like Mo for example, its still an effective pitch.”
SJ–You know I have tremendous respect for you and for your posts, but here I’ve got a bit of an issue.
Mo’s cutter is THAT good.
He’s built a 15 year career on it.
I don’t think it can simply be taught to another pitcher, even one such as Halladay.
I’m sure Halladay can lose velocity and gain movement, but I don’t think it will every approach what Mo does.
“Joe P on RAB sums it up very well:
“The problem with all this Joba trade talk is illustrated right here. Young Yankees fans have never seen a pitcher come up with growing pains. The last one to develop, Wang, came up and pitched fairly well in his first year. There were also no expectations for him, making the whole thing a ton easier. Even the last one before that, Andy Pettitte, came up and pitched well.”
Joe P is right. But I do disagree with that quote slightly.
It’s not simply “young” yankee fans that have never seen a young pitcher develop. It’s the majority of yankee fans regardless of age.
How exactly did Andy Pettite go through “growing pains?” He really didn’t – at best they were extremely mild ones. Same for Mo.
How many good home grown starters did they develop in the 1980′s? Close to none.
Besides guidry how many good young pitchers did they develop in the 1970′s?
The bottom line is that over the past 30-40 years the yankees have developed very few of their own pitchers and of the small handful that they did the majority were like Wang, Pettite, and Rivera – guys who came up nearly fully formed.
So the vast majority of yankee fans – regardless of age haven’t actually watched young pitchers develop.
Rebecca,
Halladay is 32 this year not 40 like Mo is.
In a close race, 2 wins for half a season may be the difference in making the playoffs and missing the playoffs.
Making the playoffs means millions of dollars in revenue to the Yankees. In the new Stadium, rumors are its between 2-3 million more to their bottom line per home game. Making the playoffs and having Doc Halladay, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett as your Top 3 gives you a shot to win.
Not making the playoffs? People are getting fired. That’s the delicate balance at play.
Doc means more wins next year. After that, they have a couple of ways to go.
They can let CC go to California if he so chooses and allow him to opt out after the 2011 season. That saves almost 70 million dollars.
They can let Doc go as a FA OR trade him. Saving money.
They can re-sign both.
There are all kinds of ways to look at the deal and all kinds of options to consider before making such a transaction. Its not always just black and white or right and wrong in the equation.
I do agree Doc guarantees nothing. I don’t think though I have been arguing he does.
Rebecca,
Very, very good point about Ace. Well said.
SJ,
I know there was a balance between the two. No question about it.
But you seemed to dismiss the “prospects” entirely referring to the championship years.
I’d argue they were the primary reason for those championship years. No, not the only reason.
But they developed the core of their team and filled several roles that are historically some of the toughest positions in the game to develop – center field, shortstop, catcher, starting pitcher, and Hall of Fame closer.
That’s ridiculously impressive.
No team is going to field a roster of 22-year olds straight from the farm.
Yet, that’s what people always want their team to do. That’s prospect hugging.
Listen to Sox fans. One WEEI radio host wouldn’t trade Buccholz straight up for Albert Pujols. That’s prospect hugging.
Not wanting to trade Austin Jackson, a guy most scouts see his ceiling as a solid, but not spectacular, everyday major leaguer. Well, that’s prospect hugging.
There is such a small percentage of prospects that ever make a real impact in the majors.
You can’t use Jeter, Rivera and Bernie Williams as examples of why the Yankees shouldn’t deal top prospects.
Jeter is one of the top 5 shortstops offensively in the history of baseball. He may finish with more hits than Honus Wagner.
Rivera is the greatest closer of all time, a singular talent.
Outside of possibly Montero, there are no potential singular talents in the farm system right now.
Mark in Tampa — Al Leiter was traded because the Yankees had no RF for a week and the boss went bonkers and demanded the acquisition of Jesse Barfield. They never got down on him.
I remember watching TV when the trade was annoiunced and sreaming obscenities at the TV set.
My inlaws were rather offended
“I’m sure Halladay can lose velocity and gain movement, but I don’t think it will every approach what Mo does.”
He could. He might not.
This is an unknown. You have to attach some kind of probability to it.
Just like you have to attach a probability to a young player turning out to be a viable everyday player or even a star.
I think the world of Halladay as a pitcher and have for a long time. I think he’ll be terrific for several years.
But there is a probability that will lose the ability to pitch inside to left handed hitters. There just is. Now he might be able to adjust. But that’s not a given.
The point I’m making is that people set up this dichotomy where prospects are unknown and you don’t know what their performance will be. At the same time people make assumptions about how long a veteran will maintain his current rate of performance.
There’s unknowns on both sides and if you want to make a good trade you have to acknowledge and factor in those unknowns.
Halladay is not a lock. He’s not a zero risk player. No player is.
Rebecca,
I’m not saying Mo is going to teach Doc the cutter. Doc’s cutter is already an elite pitch.
I was just commenting to CB that even if it loses velocity, its still going to be an effective pitch.
CB,
Over the last 13 years, who has done better than the Yankees from a success standpoint? Nobody.
Is “developing young pitching” better than putting together that 13 year run?
I’m not saying you don’t develop young pitching. I’m not remotely suggesting they abandon doing so.
I am saying that you don’t put developing young pitching over winning. That’s when its overrated.
The Yankees have always been a franchise that develops few of their own arms. Yet, they have had much more success than organizations who develop all of their young arms.
My point is, there isn’t a one size fits all approach to building your ballclub.
If JP told Cashman he can have Halladay for Joba, Jackson, Romine and Betances. Cashman and the Steinbrenners would have to think about it and possibly make that trade.
SJ,
Just for clarification I don’t think in anyway that you’ve been assuming Halladay is a guarantee.
I was reacting to the notion that Halladay will make the yankees so much better that the team will win the series. How could he not? He’s the best pitcher in baseball.
There have been many comments made to that effect. Just like they were in the Santana deal.
But in no way have I seen anything like that in your posts.
And there’s no doubt 2 wins is a substantial gain in a tight division. It’s just not “exponentially” better which was the comment I was reacting to.
I have never, ever dismissed the prospects entirely GF. Not a single time.
In fact, I’ve argued on here over the years the Yankees develop more of their own homegrown players than almost everybody in the game.
My argument is for those that say, “I wouldn’t trade Joba or (insert prospect de jour of the moment) for Halladay straight up”. Or, “No combination of prospects are worth trading for Roy Halladay”.
I’m sorry but, those are absurd arguments to me and that is “prospect hugging”.
Roy Halladay, Burnett and Sabbathia gives you perhaps the most formidable rotation, of any team, in the postseason.
And that’s why you trade for Halladay, because you believe it gives your team a great shot at making the postseason. After that, it’s a crapshoot.
Semantically, say it any way you want. How does that not make the Yankees a much better team than a trio of C.C., A.J. and Joba/Pettitte/Wang?
Who is the number three pitcher in the postseason among Joba, Wang, and Pettitte? Can you honestly answer that question? Didn’t think so.
Would you realistically trust any of them in a big game?
Halladay is a marked upgrade over any of those three pitchers. That, I know.
It’s ok to be a prospect hugger if you are talking about Phil or Joba. I really, really don’t want to trade them – I think they can be the foundation of the rotation for years. I do admit that the Joba, Jackson, Romine trade mentioned earlier might be something I’d consider. I think that’s fair…except that’s not what the Jays are looking for (they want a major league ready SS and I don’t even think they need OFers). Just throwing out names doesn’t help – the ? is do the Yankees have what the Jays are looking for? Do they match up? If not, it doesn’t matter how talented the Yankees farm system is.
CB,
Agreed. I’m not in the, “Halladay makes the Yankees 10 times better” camp. That makes no sense to me.
Cash, EXACTLY!!!
That’s all I’m saying.
IF a deal like that was ever on the table for the Yankees, and I was the GM, I have to go to my ownership and recommend they pull the trigger on such it.
It would hurt but, hurt a lot less when you have Doc lining up every 5 days to pitch.
“And that’s why you trade for Halladay, because you believe it gives your team a great shot at making the postseason. After that, it’s a crapshoot.”
Ok. So if JP says you can only have Halladay if you absorb all of Wells’ contract by this line of thinking the yankees shoudl still make the trade, no questions ask.
Trading for Halladay, even if it means giving up Montero, Joba, etc. and taking on Wells money is still the right thing to do because it give the team its best shot at making the post season.
Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. But he doesn’t have infinite value.
And to say he gives you the “best shot” is kind of empty. The real question is how much better does he increase the probability of winning given the costs-benefits of getting him?
I’d think that’s around 2-3 wins. So put a value on that. That’s what you are trading for.
And again – that’s assuming Joba continues to stink, that they can’t trade for a Brian Bannister type and don’t do something like put joba in the pen and put hughes in the rotation.
Any of those alternatives could decrease Halladay’s value because in my scenario I assume Joba will continue to be horrible.
If Joba should turn things around halladay’s value could fall to say 1 win.
Betsy,
The names of players don’t matter as long as those names aren’t Montero and it’s either Joba or Hughes.
Is that how it works? Does JP go to the teams and say this is what I want…….? Does he negotiate if the other team would prefer to give up player B insted of the player A that JP mentioned? Does JP say no dice to any other proposal and move on to another team?
CB,
I’m for trading for Halladay, but if the Jays insist on us taking Wells then Montero and Joba are off the table.
Betsy,
There will be one player or two that JP will insist be a part of the deal and after that, he will be given a list of players to choose from for the others.
I wish it was easy to just say it was 2 road games,relax.
~Now look at the big picture~
~Yankees can’t beat the Angels.
~Haven’t beat the RS,this year,(with or without injured player’s in the game.)
~Andy is not good in or,now out of the stadium.
~Wang hasn’t won a game this year,and is injured.
~A big whole in the starting rotation,who’s the pitcher
~Joba isn’t,the Joba we’ve seen,and may have been rushed to the majors a year or so too soon.
~Bruney,Tomko,Robertson NOT good relievers.
~Cano,Melky not regular hitters,lazy at the bat.
~Damon a joke in the outfield.
~Swisher,no replacement for Abreu
~Jeter,Damon affinity for GDIP’S or force outs.
~Tex not hitting,leaves Arod exposed,they could just walk him,because nobody’s on anyway,and he maybe the 3rd out.
~Yankees go inning after inning with no hitting.
~LOB stat drives me crazy,when someone does get on base,mainly 3rd, the next batter(s) strikes out.
~This blog has passionate fans of the Yankees,but to pretend
this Yankees team is built for the 5 game playoff is deceiving ourselves.
~The short 5 game series doesn’t favor,just 2 good pitchers,
the 7 game is a better fit.
~Does it bother anyone,when the bases are loaded, with 1 or no outs,and batter after batter strikes out,leaving the runners stranded,or maybe 1 run scores,wonder why they can’t bring in the run(s)? With this line up?
~I’m all for giving JOBA time,just not in the rotation,he still has growing pains,and stuff to workout.
~As a Yankees fan,I tired of being the laughingstock of baseball because of the money spent,and still not able,to win.
~I hope Cashman uses the Yankees money wisely for at the trade deadline!!
Looking at what JP has said publicly, it sounds like he is putting the name out there and waiting for his phone to ring. If anybody gives him a can’t refuse deal, he’ll make it, but I don’t think he is in “trade him for the best deal, whatever that is” mode. Because of this, I don’t think anybody gets him for anything less than ripping themselves off. No Schilling for Casey Fossum here.
Vince,
You need to relax.
If you are the Yankees, there is no scenario that makes sense to take on Wells’ contract.
If that costs you Doc, so be it.
That’s a 100 million dollar albatross attached to the Jays franchise. No reason to inherit it and attach to yours.
vince,
That all sounds awful, I am guessing the team you are referring to must be in last place!
Cash, I was against trading Phil for Johan and I’m still against trading him for Halladay…….even though yes, I know the pitchers are different and there are less ? surrounding Doc. I’m less insistent on keeping Joba, but I would still like to hold onto him because he’s so talented. That said, the Yankees really have issues with their SP – they can’t go with Joba/Andy/?. Brian Bannister is ok, I guess – but how much of a help is he going to be? He’s a #4 or #5 starter…..and let’s see how he’d hold up in the AL East. I’m skeptical……..
“If you are the Yankees, there is no scenario that makes sense to take on Wells’ contract.
If that costs you Doc, so be it.
That’s a 100 million dollar albatross attached to the Jays franchise. No reason to inherit it and attach to yours.”
Let’s be frank, no team can afford taking on that contract along with Halladay.
Cash, thanks!
Betsy,
I know Hughes is your guy, but is there any player you would trade for him?
If the Jays say they want Hughes, Jackson, Romine and ???? for Halladay. I would hope the Yankees do the deal because it makes them better for the next four years.
“I’m for trading for Halladay, but if the Jays insist on us taking Wells then Montero and Joba are off the table.”
Right now the yankees have a 61% chance of making the playoffs.
So the strong probability is that the yankees will make the playoffs with their current rate of play.
Unless you assume that the yankees will have a large drop off in performance – I mean fall through the floor drop off in performance or you assume the Rays are going to go nuts then the yankees are in all likelihood going to make the playoffs.
Here’s the thing that many yankee fans can’t get used to:
The team is not desperate.
The yankees are in a much better position than they were even back to the Santana talks.
The yankees are in the drivers seat. Not JP.
Here’s the fact – it is the Jays who are desperate. Not the yankees.
And the Jays are desperate because of their overall financial situation. And they are truly desperate.
So for the yankees this deal isn’t going to wind up coming down to Roy Halladay. It’s not.
For the yankees this deal is going to be much more about Wells than it is Halladay.
That’s the decision the yankees FO is going to have to make.
Halladay is JP’s reset button. That’s the guaranteed value to him.
Performance is always uncertain. Chopping off $100M of an awful contract is guaranteed value. Guaranteed. There is 0% risk involved.
Stop worrying about Halladay. Start considering what the impact of Vernon Wells will be on the yankees.
It’s Vernon Well – more than Montero or Joba – who are going to decide Halladay’s future on the yankees.
JP is only going to trade Halladay to the yankees if he can get back something truly unique.
Monter is not unique. Joba is not unique.
$100M vanishing – poof – overnight. That’s pretty unique.
And if the yankees take back that awful contract they aren’t going to need to trade anything remotely close to the value of Montero or Joba. Not even close.
CB,
Or Rios. If the Yankees engaged on Doc and Rios, JP knocks 81 million off his payroll.
Its not Wells-like but, its close.
Cash, but I wouldn’t deal him for Johan – I’m being consistent. At the time, I wasn’t even considering Johan’s fragile elbow or his size or the other concerns people had. I didn’t want to trade a highly promising 21 year old for a 7 years older pitcher who, at his very best, couldn’t guarantee anything. Philosophically, I was just very opposed…..
Halladay is a great pitcher, but in 5 years I don’t want to be stuck with 3 pitchers in their mid-thirties making $60 million combined.
In a few years, young studs like Felix Hernandez, Grienke, Lincecum, and others will be FA’s. I would much rather sign a 25-27 year old ace to complement Joba and Hughes, with CC and Burnett as the vets of the rotation, then to have 3 former aces and only 1 or 2 guys in their prime.
For now, all the Yankees need is a good #3 starter. Do what the Phillies did last year and trade for a Joe Blanton type, who can give you 6-7 innings of a 4.00 ERA. Then put Aceves back in the bullpen and let Wang really build himself back to 100% instead of rushing him because the team needs a starter.
CB,
In case you haven’t notice, our pitching rotation from #3 to #5 is in trouble. It might be serious trouble if Pettitte and Joba can’t turn it around. I don’t want to hear about some 61% chance of making the playoffs with Tampa and the loser of Angels/Rangers right behind us.
Getting Halladay shores up the pitching staff tremendously and improves the depth of our rotation.
CB,
Also, the Yankees aren’t taking Wells or Rios contract anyway because they can’t afford it.
Wells’ contract is completely horrible, but I would take on Wells (and some, not all of that contract) if it meant getting Halladay and giving up lesser prospects. Of course, I think Hal would not be inclined to do that given that the stadium is not bringing in the revenue that was expected
“Halladay is a great pitcher, but in 5 years I don’t want to be stuck with 3 pitchers in their mid-thirties making $60 million combined.”
I would if it gives me 2 more WS championships.
SJ,
Honestly, I’m not even sure if Rios would do it.
Or at least let me say this – putting myself in JP’s shoes – I would insist it is Wells who goes with Roy rather than Rios.
Rios still could be moved in a second deal.
Well absolutely cannot unless the conditions are extraordinary.
And packing Roy is that opportunity.
IMO JP can’t let that pass.
Now he might not get what he wants. But if I were him I would wait at least until this winter to make sure I can’t move wells rather than rios.
Either way if the yankees take back Wells or Rios than Monter, Joba or Hughes are not even in the realm of conversation.
Not even close. If the yankees take back contract money none of those guys is even in the discussion.
And that’s not being a “prospect hugger” or unrealisitic. The Jays or over a barrel financially. That’s the bottom line.
Look around the economy – any business that is cash rich right now is making out like bandits. They are getting immense value back. Cash for strategic investments is in short supply.
The Yankees are cash rich. The Jays are in a world of hurt.
They simply are not going to move Halladay and get back salary relief and top notch talent.
Not going to happen. It’s one or the other.
To make this trade for the yanks it’s not first and foremost about joba or hughes.
It’s about Wells and Rios.
Who’s out there to acquire that the Yankees can trust? Bannister? I guess he’s fine in the AL Central, but he’d get killed in the AL East.
The Yankees can not depend on Wang to return anytime soon and to be any good when he does return. They need 2 starters…..and they need another arm in the pen (not counting Aceves, who nees to be inserted back ther ASAP) though I have no idea where they’ll get one.
Cash,if we relax any more,we’ll watch the playoffs on the sidelines,like last year.
“I would if it gives me 2 more WS championships.”
But you have no idea if this is going to be the case.
Like it or not the yankees right now have a 61% chance of making the post season.
That’s the fact.
This panic about the pitching rotation is exactly like the doom and gloom earlier in the year about the bull pen. Remember when that also just could not be fixed without making some massive trade?
All teams have holes. Boston’s not hitting. The rays pen stinks and their rotation is suspect because Kazmir is always hurt and Price has been more inconsistent than Joba.
The difference is that only yankee fans would ignore a 60% chance of making the playoffs and instead focus on how that probabilty needs to 100% or its not good enough.
Vince,
Us fans relaxing has no bearing on the playoffs.
I don’t know where you came up with that 61% number, but it means nothing to me.
CASH you said relax I RESPONDED.
From day one I have expected the Jays to try and link Rios or Wells to Halladay, even though all three have no trade clauses.
It won’t be easy to do and would result in them getting very little talent in return for the financial stability they would gain. Frankly I wouldn’t touch Wells unless it’s Halladay, Wells and Scott Downs for three paids of shoelaces and a bag of Doritos.
Rios is a younger player with a less cumbersome contract would bring Toronto a better package of players though not as much as they’d get for Halladay on his own.
Melky/Jackson, Cervelli/Romine, Melancon and McAllister might be enough to get that done. In 2010 Halladay/Rios make just a little more than Matsui/Damon this year and that still leaves $$ from Pettite, Nady and Molina to address other issues.
If there’s no linkage with Rios/Wells then I can’t see how they make the deal without Hughes or Joba.
Due to current payroll and luxury tax premiums that add 40%, plus his no trade clause, and possibly no window to negotiate a contract extension,I wouldn’t get my hopes up about taking on Halladay, let alone with Rios/Wells, plus giving up low cost talent.
CB, SJ44, and all.
If you give up young talent, trade for young talent, and go get Soria to be the 8th inning guy, and closer some days to learn from Rivera. Then you can move Aceves or Hughes into the rotation.
Our bullpen currently is a mess, in large part because of the inability of 3 of our starters going more than 4-5 innings, but also in part of the inconsistency and inexperience, and the injuries to Bruney and Marte.
How many wins would adding Soria to the bullpen, in concurrence with putting Aceves or hughes in the rotation?
The belief that Austin Jackson can hold down CF for the next 10 years is a fan statement. There is no guarantee of that.
He may not even make the Yankees next year. He’s a nice player. He’s not a surefire star. Don’t overrate him like you did Christian Garcia.
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SJ44,
I said he “could” hold down – not he “can.”
You respond selectively to better leverage your argument, and that is dishonest.
There is no guarantee that AJax will “make” it. However, I don’t kneel before a wishing well and implore the Baseball Gods to breathe brilliance into him.
I saw him early on – he was all arms and high leg kick and blindfolded hacks. I was not impressed – I even remarked, on a forum I frequent more – that one needs to be suspicious the the so-called 5-tool guy who doesn’t appear to have any honed baseball skills.
Guess what?
AJax has completely turned things around; his approach is like someone else slipped into his body: he uses his front foot to adapt to where the ball is – he keeps his hands back, and he doesn’t lunge like he used to – he generates way more power (probably the key to the power we’re seeing more regularly), and his bat is naturally quick.
AJax is not pie in the sky or a PR push – he has the athletic gifts and apparently, the coachability and determination – to become a real baseball player.
He already has very good instincts on where the ball is going off the bat, runs like a gazelle, can time his jumps to make “spectacular” thieving plays at the wall, and has a decent arm.
Right now, anyone who is marking his progress has to concede that he has really developed nicely; I believe his ETA was considered 2009; best to let him have his cup of coffee and say, see you in ST 2010, because he is very, very close.
Garcia has not been over rated: Garcia is impossibly talented; his issue is his physical health – not his stuff.
Based on what you have written about him, it’s clear to me you haven’t seen much of him. If you had, you wouldn’t even think of calling him “over rated.”
He just can’t seem to stay healthy. Only those of us who have seen him enough know that is something to lament. Had he been healthy, we could have moved him into the BP for this year but sadly, one doesn’t even know if he has any kind of future.