Red Sox +79
Based on the Pythagorean W-L theory, the Rays should be 54-39 and the Yankees 52-40. In other words, the Rays have had some bad luck and the Yankees some good luck. Sometimes that balances out, sometimes it doesn’t. Tampa played five games better than it’s Pythagorean record last season.
But run differential is usually an accurate predictor, so expect the Rays to make a move at some point. The Yankees play three games at the Trop starting on Monday.