Keep an eye on those Rays
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- July
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Run differential
Dodgers +101
Rays +79
Red Sox +79
Phillies +67
Yankees +65
Based on the Pythagorean W-L theory, the Rays should be 54-39 and the Yankees 52-40. In other words, the Rays have had some bad luck and the Yankees some good luck. Sometimes that balances out, sometimes it doesn’t. Tampa played five games better than it’s Pythagorean record last season.
But run differential is usually an accurate predictor, so expect the Rays to make a move at some point. The Yankees play three games at the Trop starting on Monday.
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Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
i would be concerned if david price was in their bullpen…but he’s not so i worry not.
I dont think their bullpen has enough life to fully get them over the hump, but yea, they will make a run.
Pete,
Any word on tonight’s game?
I’m not too worried. That run differential would be a lot different if the Yankees hadn’t won their last 4 games by 5 total runs. The Phillies have won 9 straight but I bet in their last 4 they got a heck of a lot more than +5 runs added to their differential.
Plus the Rays run differential has been good all year. In fact, they had the best run differential in the majors a month ago but it’s starting to slowly go down while the Yanks differential continues to improve.
You lost me with the numbers. What does this mean?
The Rays concern me far more than Boston does. They’re a far better balanced team and their speed is every bit the equal of the Angels – if not more.
In my opinion, if the yanks take 2 of 3 from the rays next week….then the rays will be 6-8 games behind the yankees going into august….they play the red sox i believe 10 games again…..so the yanks and red sox and rays are gonna beat up on eachother with only 2 teams surviving…i dont think they rays can hang with that bullpen
Pete, according to RAB you are both right and wrong.
Someone there posted an article on how both the Yanks AND Rays have been unlucky. Rays more than Yanks, but the point is we haven’t exactly been finding gold under every rainbow.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have been quite lucky and should hopefully balance out.
If you take off the 22 runs beating from Cleveland when Wang was in batting practice, we should be right there with then.
What about the Wang games at the beginning of the year. Surely losing 3 games by a total of 10,000 runs hurt the Yankees run differential.
They’ll make a run, but we have the better bullpen.
yup.
the Rays are why i would not take a playoff berth, for granted.
sleeping giant
did all of the sudden WFAN turn into the Italian ghetto station?
One game at a time. That’s the only way to be sane about the whole thing.
Hopefully the rain tonight will be like what I’m experiencing here today – fairly light and intermittent. The weather’s been so great lately, I hate to complain, but I do hate rain delays and am always a little fearful of injuries caused by slippery fields and slippery baseballs.
Brandon-You have a problem with Italian ghettos? Chump?
(Before anybody starts yelling this is a joke)
Beginning of the year no A-Rod and Chien Ming Wang wasn’t any good. I think that accounts for the 14 run difference right there.
A-Rod is usually worth about 1 run a game and he missed how many games?
I’ll keep my eye on the Rays next Monday when the Yanks play them.
Rich Hill going for the O’s tonight. Lefty, 3-2 record, 7.22 ERA and the only Yankee that has faced him is Cano. Sounds like trouble to me.
The Yankees have won a lot of close games recently and lost a lot of blowouts early on.
I do agree that the Rays will make a run but both the Yankees and Red Sox are deeper teams.
If the Yankees find a 5th starter and the Sox add another bat, the Rays will not keep up with the pace.
Let’s hope Serg pitches well and the offence scores 6+ tonight.
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....uck-14539/
“A second half search for a little bit of luck”
There’s the article.
ALL three teams should be nervous. At this point it is an almost certain lock that the wildcard is coming out of the East. Between Boston, NY and Tampa there is going to be one really ticked off team come October.
CMW gave up 46 runs in 42 innings. A more expected number would be around 20 runs. So adding in those extra runs, the Yankee differential should be closer to 90
I hope Sterling doesn’t use the “Hinske with your best shot” line.
For all his faults, at least Sterling’s HR calls are grammatical: “It’s an A-bomb, from A-Rod”, “The Melkman delivers”, “It’s Robbie Cano – don’t you know.”
How the heck does he make “Hinkse with your best shot” grammatical? “It is high! It is far! It is gone! A tremendous home run by Eric Hinske! Hinske with your best shot!”
Sorry. Even though I get the obvious reference to the Pat Benatar song, the syntax is all wrong. In order to make sense, he’d have to phrase it “Hinske hits his best shot” or “Hinske with his best shot”. No?
Wait, wasamatta you ! you wanna peesamee !
Yanks magic number to clinch AL East: 71
Yanks magic number to clinch Wild Card: 67
According to RAB, if you’re at zero that you are not lcucky or unlucky, you’re as good as you’re supposed to be. The Yanks are at -!. The Sox are at +6. The Rays are at -9.
So the Rays should get much luckier, the Yanks should get a bit luckier and the Sox should get much less lucky.
Brandon-Under the O’Neill banner.
We’re doing magic numbers already?? lol
Worth noting that the Rays have the 3rd best bullpen ERA in MLB, so not sure the notion that their pen isn’t adequate is sound.
Also worth noting that bullpen era may not be the end all/be all measure, but still…
I don’t buy it. Wang had a bunch of stinkers that took the Yankees out of the game early.
“It is high! It is far! It is GONE!!!” A Home Run from Eric inske! Hinske with your best shot, baby!”
Pat Benatar’s a real hero of mine. The music that she’s made over the years, I don’t really listen to it. But the fact that she’s making it, I respect that.
SFYanksFan-Frankly I could care less what their bullpen ERA is. Our bullpen is > than Tampa Bay’s.
“Brandon-Under the O’Neill banner.”
fine ! but no guns or knives, I’m bringing my little brother to watch.
pfft. The Rays. lol.
The Rays had an AWESOME June.
They’re playing .500 ball in July.
They played 2 above .500 in May and they were below .500 in April.
They’re also 21-27 on the Road.
Last season was a fluke.
Brandon-I gotta couple a’ friends I want to bring with me…you may know them if you’ve watched Godfather 2.
Wait -
Fair enough. Like I said, just thought it worth noting.
They just won three 2-1 games in a row.
You know the pythagorean theorom(the triangle one) is a mathematical law.
The baseball one is based on averages and generalized extrapolations.
That said, I expect the Rays to compete in the race but let’s all hope that those run differentials look a little more even by next Thursday morn.
Last season was a fluke for the Rays? I think not.
I take it you don’t have Extra Innings, and have not had the opportunity to watch them play much. They fight until the last out, and their young core is devastatingly good.
They’ll not only be a pain this year, but for many years to come.
Thankfully they traded away Edwin Jackson or things would look quite different right now in the AL East.
“pfft. The Rays. lol.
The Rays had an AWESOME June.
They’re playing .500 ball in July.
They played 2 above .500 in May and they were below .500 in April.
They’re also 21-27 on the Road.
Last season was a fluke”
yes. They are loaded for bear, and have immense talent on their roster and in their farm system. But yeah, they’re just a fluke
?
Wait- Is it Joe Pecsi?
SFYanksFan-No, it was worth noting. I just don’t buy it.
When looking at the Yank’s run differential, remember that they lost to the Indians 22-4 in a game. Things being equal, they have played like a team that has a low to mid 70s run differental.
The Rays are good.
They could come back and make a move.
The Yankees shouldn’t be concerned with that–the Yankees should only be concerned with the games they play, and how they perform.
If the Yankees win every game against every opponent on their schedule, if they take it day by day and win that day’s game, good things will follow.
Wang’s starts this season has definitely thrown off the run differential for the Yankees.
Brandon-As a matter of fact, yes.
“The Rays had an AWESOME June.”
What do you know about AWESOME?
The numbers are completely skewed. I don’t recall any team taking a beating like the Yanks did in the Wang games. 22-4? A better representative Pythagorean would be to take the median runs and input it into the equation. Drop out the 5 worst games and the five best games of both sides of the coin. I bet the Yanks come out on top with that equation.
“yes. They are loaded for bear, and have immense talent on their roster and in their farm system. But yeah, they’re just a fluke”
And they also have no payroll.
It’s the Oakland A’s reborn into the Eastern Division.
Lot of arguing about a homerun call for a bench player that is going to be used for another 2 months.
“you may know them if you’ve watched Godfather 2.”
They must in wheelchairs, or at least using a cane by now!
Petes Right ! . We have to take care of the birds first . then BURY the rays ! give them a nice punch to the stomach ! ..
Yanks win the A.L. East
Rays win the Wild Card
BoSux miss the playoffs completely—PRICELESS
I don’t worry about run differential because think of all the pitchers who gave up runs earlier in the year that are no longer on the team.
Wang’s 3 horrific starts, Veras, Ramirez, Albaladejo, Anthony Claggett (8 runs in 1 inning)…
April really screwed up this statistic. That month we had all the above-mentioned pitchers, plus no Arod, and no Aceves and Hughes.
There’s no statistical justification to remove selected results from a data pool. If you remove NYY’s worst loss as an outlier, you must also remove its best win (as well as the best wins and losses of all other teams). A better way might be to cap per game run differential at 10 (so the 22-4 score) would become 14-4. This would apply to wins as well as to losses. I’m not sure this theory holds up, but it is a theoretically sound model to at least test. Either way, it’s hard to beat pythag for reliability.
Yankee fans can take heart in the much improved differential since the return of A-Rod. Again, however, we can’t cherry pick too much. The Rays might be even better on differential if not for Upton’s horrible start. The Sox might be better if not for some injuries.
“Lot of arguing about a homerun call for a bench player that is going to be used for another 2 months.”
He has hit 4 HR in 15 ABs…he’s not likely to continue at that pace but he’s still worthy of a good HR call IMO!
“What do you know about AWESOME?”
I know it isn’t Jonathan Sanchez who has a career 5.00 era in the NL.
“They must in wheelchairs, or at least using a cane by now!”
Shut up!
The yanks will skip Mitre if they get rained out tonight, correct? Hopefully the game gets called before they even activate him. I guess they could play a DH tomorrow though.
We’ll see. The Rays’ offense has been playing above its head (I’m looking at you Bartlett and Zobrist) while our pitching has been playing below its talent. The run differential is not so extreme that it indicates we won’t outpace them.
When was the last time the Yanks starting rotation got 5 straight W’s?
Yahoo had an interesting column on the return of the Rays this week
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
If it is rained out tonight I hope they play a doubleheader tomorrow.
Pel
July 21st, 2009 at 12:58 pm
When was the last time the Yanks starting rotation got 5 straight W’s?
***
No idea, but Aceves got the win last night- not Pettitte
When was the last time the Yanks starting rotation got 5 straight W’s?
–
Pettitte got a no decision
The numbers are skewed because of Wang. 3-4 blowouts (on top of the blowouts during the regular course of the season) will do that.
Yanks won’t get rained out tonight. The weather is already starting to break here in South Jersy and the system is moving out to the north. Radar doesn’t show any kind of organized systems moving in.
Maybe I don’t pay enough attention to TB but when the yanks are gonna loose one ( and they do roll over sometimes) they tend to loose big. There has been about 3 games this year where the yanks gave up a ton of runs cause a loss by 20 runs is the same as any other loss. Its one game in there eyes. Teams like the Rays battle harder at all times. They have player working their way up in the league they are not a bunch of established veterans.
I hope there’s no rainouts.. I’m on pace to see CC at the Stadium Thursday.
This, however, might be more encouraging:
Post May 8 (return of Alex Rodriguez):
NYY + 81
TB + 72
BOS + 40
Wang destroyed the yankees run differential this year
I only care that we make the playoffs.
In fact, I would prefer the Rays to the Sox. Not because we can’t beat them, but because Fenway is such an advantage for their lineup.
Hey, help please? Testing something I just heard on the radio (local).
What to do you guys think are the greatest upsets in sports history? Can you list your top 3?
There’s no statistical justification to remove selected results from a data pool. If you remove NYY’s worst loss as an outlier, you must also remove its best win (as well as the best wins and losses of all other teams). A better way might be to cap per game run differential at 10 (so the 22-4 score) would become 14-4. This would apply to wins as well as to losses. I’m not sure this theory holds up, but it is a theoretically sound model to at least test. Either way, it’s hard to beat pythag for reliability.
—
I would look at the expected runs for and against for the Yankees and compare to the actual runs for and against per each game. I am pretty certain 22-4 is a complete statistical outlier and not a measure of true production. Pythag is pretty good but not perfect. If a team wins 99 games 2-0 but loses 1 by 200, their pythag is going to be pretty butts. Thats a crappy hyperbole of an example but I think the yankees offense trends more towards domination than our pitching staff trends towards giving up a complete blowout.
And therefore, I think it is certainly reasonable to remove that game if you want to debate things like the yankees suck because the Rays have a superior run differential and oh no here come the rays.
The rays do have a pretty good run differential. They also have the #2 offense in baseball (second to the yankees) so its no surprise they have scored plenty of runs in their wins.
The Yankees never gave up on any game if that is what you’re suggesting alluminum. At the beginning of the year they had a ton of pitching (especially bullpen) issues that often made scores turn lopisded. But I highly doubt they gave up.
“There’s no statistical justification to remove selected results from a data pool. If you remove NYY’s worst loss as an outlier, you must also remove its best win (as well as the best wins and losses of all other teams). A better way might be to cap per game run differential at 10 (so the 22-4 score) would become 14-4. This would apply to wins as well as to losses. I’m not sure this theory holds up, but it is a theoretically sound model to at least test. Either way, it’s hard to beat pythag for reliability.”
I would be very, very interested to see how that played out.
You’ve given me an idea for a blog post–mind if I steal it? I will, of course, credit you with the idea!
I forgot about the Yanks 15-5 loss to the Rays in April. That didn’t help the run differential much.
john_halfz
July 21st, 2009 at 1:03 pm
This, however, might be more encouraging:
Post May 8 (return of Alex Rodriguez):
NYY + 81
TB + 72
BOS + 40
***
Love this stat!
can we look at the run diff. month by month for TB, Boston, and NY. lets look at the trends it may hold more insight.
The Pythagorean doesn’t account for blown calls, wild pitches, errors, inches foul vs. inches fair.
The best indicator of where a team stands is the W-L record.
Darrin
July 21st, 2009 at 12:40 pm
I hope Sterling doesn’t use the “Hinske with your best shot” line.
For all his faults, at least Sterling’s HR calls are grammatical: “It’s an A-bomb, from A-Rod”, “The Melkman delivers”, “It’s Robbie Cano – don’t you know.”
How the heck does he make “Hinkse with your best shot” grammatical? “It is high! It is far! It is gone! A tremendous home run by Eric Hinske! Hinske with your best shot!”
Sorry. Even though I get the obvious reference to the Pat Benatar song, the syntax is all wrong. In order to make sense, he’d have to phrase it “Hinske hits his best shot” or “Hinske with his best shot”. No?
——
Darrin, I agree 100% here and like I said last thread I am a personal friend of Pat Benatar.
How about “Hinske hit it half way to Comiskey” At least there is a rhyme there.
Of course I also like “an over the wall bop from the mall cop”
It’s not exactly a newsflash that the Rays are our most dangerous foe in the division.
This is why I think its going to be either Boston and Tampa, or Yankees and Tampa.
For proof of Pythag’s worth, it’s worth noting that these differentials (post May
translate to (in terms of GB)
NYY –
TB 1
BOS 4
The Yankees have, in fact, gained 4.5 games on Boston. But they’ve gained 3.5 on TB (2.5 more than expected). The Rays have indeed been a bit unlucky since May 8. But the Yanks have been better.
m-Easy, in my mind. I’ve noticed all experts agree. (Numbers one and two can be interchangeable)
1. U.S. Olympic team shocks the Soviets (Miracle on Ice)
2. Buster Douglas knocks out Mike Tyson
3. Tough one. Hmmm…gonna have to go with a a sports event not quite as famous, The Miracleon Grass, when the pretty crappy U.S. soccer team beat England in the world cup 1-0.
I’ll add an honorary mention, the Joe Namath gurantee.
m
Miracle on Ice is Number one imo
“I know it isn’t Jonathan Sanchez who has a career 5.00 era in the NL.”
back of the rotation. And he’s better than 5+ ERA…you get him when his value is low not high.
I’m sure the Rays will make it a 3-team race before the year is out.
It wouldn’t be entirely their fault if Boston would fall off the pace & make it a 2-team race, unless they (and NYY) stomp on Boston when they play each other.
Neither statement is to predict they’ll take the division or the wild card. Just saying that you can’t write them off.
Last year’s Rays were not a fluke although lots of things did fall into place for them. Definitely give them credit for last year. A big diff from last year is the number of starts they’re getting from their starters. And while that’s a factor in the results, they’re really not much different from last year’s team.
Jerkface:
I know. Pythag is only good because it gives you an answer within the margin of error an acceptable percentage of the time. By the time you hit a critical sample size threshold, the effect of weird outliers is pretty heavily reduced. But I still think it makes sense to cap run differentials (per game) around the league to see if pythag can be improved.
Rebecca:
Sure.
I am bored at work.
It’s time to start “Guess Tonight’s Line up”
I already have Patrick the Prospect Hugger’s submission. Who else would like in?
I used a similar formula when working on a story about football comparative scores. In football I put the cap at a 30-point margin of victory and found it gave a much more accurate picture of relative strengths than letting a 70-3 score distort everything.
I suspect a 10-run limit could deliver similar results and put the “run differential” stats in a better, more accurate context. I might be more inclined to cap each game margin of victory/defeat at eight.
But if you do it you have to include wins AND losses or it’s as meaningless as the raw numbers if not more so.
Count me among those who hope Sterling doesn’t “come up” with a Hinske HR call. Giving that mental midget another toy to play with is like giving Barney Fife a gun full of bullets.
Jonathan Sanchez is what he is, a mediocre pitcher with iffy control. He’s a poor man’s Oliver Perez
I’m gonna disagree with everyone. I think a lot of people are being blinded by an anti Boston bias. Boston is a great team. IMO they’re better than the Rays and right now better than the Yankees as well. It’s all about the pitching.
I think unless something dramtatic occurs or the Yanks get another starter it’s Boston for the division, Yanks for the Wild Card, and Rays left out, ad the Rays are good. But I don’t think they’re good enough.
Of course, in the playoffs I make no predictions. Anything can happen. And I may be wrong.
Rays are the only team that could potentially keep us from October.
Very dangerous team, do not sleep on them. Their 2nd half schedule is much easier than ours too.
Lineup guess:
Jeter SS
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Cabrera LF
Gardner CF
Ransom 3B
Well…Jason Bay is hitting like .211 since June…so that explains the Red Sox run def since May
Okay, not the upset I’m looking for. Think college basketball, last 30 years.
m-Can’t help you there. I really don’t follow College basketball.
Someone check out Rays numbers vs the AL opposed to the NL
Hokiehill might remember this one.
“I’m gonna disagree with everyone. I think a lot of people are being blinded by an anti Boston bias. Boston is a great team. IMO they’re better than the Rays and right now better than the Yankees as well. It’s all about the pitching”
The Red Sox and Yankees pitching are very very similar. The one advantage they have over us is their #3 (wakefield) is world’s better than our #3 starter (we don’t have one). That’s the only thing Boston really has on the Yankees.
Their lineup isn’t nearly as good as the Yankees. Their bullpen has regressed terribly in the past month. As our pen has gotten better, their pen has gotten worse. As it stands right now, even though we are tied for first place with Boston but 0 – 8 against them, I think we are the better team at this moment in time. We’ve been playing better baseball than them the past 10 weeks. That’s just my opinion though.
I’m gonna disagree with everyone. I think a lot of people are being blinded by an anti Boston bias. Boston is a great team. IMO they’re better than the Rays and right now better than the Yankees as well. It’s all about the pitching.
—
Strongly disagree. Boston’s pitching does 1 thing better than the Yankees, give up HRs. Their bullpen had an unsustainable LOB% at the beginning of the year. Their 3 4 and 5 pitchers are average to below average. The bottom of their bullpen isn’t as good as advertised. Their closer is incredibly shakey. Their backup closer kind of sucks. Their long man is more of a ROOGY.
Lester and Beckett are good. Cannot dismiss it. Their offense can’t hit on the road. Their bullpen is no longer ‘best in the majors’ material.
If they didn’t go 8-0 against the yankees they’d be where the Rays are right now. The yankees are very much Boston’s equal.
if we didnt lose one game 22-4 we’d be +83
m,
Villanova over G town
Ramey
July 21st, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Jonathan Sanchez is what he is, a mediocre pitcher with iffy control. He’s a poor man’s Oliver Perez
***
I would say Sanchez is an equal to Ollie. But Brandon has been sweet on him since he threw the no-no. I am having none of it.
Andrew-
I have your submission
I don’t care about run differential. That could be a function of the Rays having a few huge offensive games…… I respect the Rays, they will be there until the end. However, the Yankees are 5 games up in the loss column. For some reason, the Rays get more respect from experts and fans than the Yankees do……..
Please no Ransom…not today…not tomorrow…not EVER!
Play Hinske! he is hitting better vs lefties then Ransom anyway!
Joba, Alex and Andy doing their Hope Week thing today. Lunch and a baseball clinic with little leaguers and children with Cerebral Palsy in the West Village.
boston and tampa are both very good. boston needs to make a move there offense is loking old.
tampa can stand pat and compete. bartlett and zobrist’s big years are helping a ton…tampa has come back to win a lot of games also……
Rays have the 3rd ranked bullpen in baseball. Where are people getting this notion that they have a bad pen?
Rays have the 2nd ranked BP in the AL, 4th ranked ERA, and 2nd in runs scored. They are going nowhere.
Here’s my early afternoon lineup guess:
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Swisher RF
Cano 2b
Cabrera CF
Ransom 3B
Francesca saying that the rumored Jays offer to Mets did not happen – that’s what he’s saying anyway. I agree with him that it would be a no-brainer – that is, JP (had he offered that deal) would have shown himself to have no brains.
Of course, he’s a hypocrite – Mike wants the Mets to get him, but not the Yankees.
m
July 21st, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Okay, not the upset I’m looking for. Think college basketball, last 30 years.
Nova Gtown yes big one
The Yankees are better poised to win the division because we dominate at home (as do the Rays and red Sox) but we have the #1 offense on the road (and it isnt even close, thanks replacement level!) and 2 of our pitchers are absolute road dogs.
The yankees are capable of ripping off sustained win streaks without needing a long homestand.
I did the calculations with the Rays, Sox, and Yanks dropping their 5 worst and 5 best scores and here are the results:
Ray – +63
Red Sox – +74
Yankees – +61
Probably not what you were expecting but those are the results. I can post the scores and dates I took out if you want
“I would say Sanchez is an equal to Ollie. But Brandon has been sweet on him since he threw the no-no. I am having none of it.”
I’m just happy the Yankees never signed Perez in the off-season like they were toying with the notion. I probably would’ve jumped off the brooklyn bridge by now if we had
Ramey-That’s a fine opinion, you’ve backed it up nicely. But IMO they have great pitching with Beckett, Lester and, Wakefield are ebetter than our starting three (although I expect CC to pick it up…A.J. IDK, I expect him to remain static). You’re right, Wakefield is the difference.
Their bullpen HAS regressed but even so they have some brand names in there and I expect that they’ll pick it up again soon.
I’m not being fooled by the Sox midsummer swoon, they do this every year and always pick it up again.
betsy,
I haven’t read the article, but I saw Vacarro wrote something about, “manuel safe, but Girardi isn’t?”
That’s why I was floored to hear Feinsand ask that question. The Yankees are closing in on the best record in baseball, and Girardi’s on the hot seat?
Got it Ramey!
I am already regretting my lineup submission
I omitted Damon thinking he would sit due to his aches and pains/wet field/lefty starter, but I am already doubting that will happen. Also Joe will probably give Al a breather tomorrow in the day game after night game (so Al can go to the club with Kate Hudson tonight?), so I am just going to be way off. Oh well, got to be in it to win it, as they say.
Tampa is a legit team. Loaded with young talent… great pitching, top offense, top defense.
They also have a very easy schedule in the 2nd half.
The Sox are a very mediocre hitting team on the road. Ortiz continues to be absolutely pathetic away from Fenway. They are pitching very well at Fenway, but not so well on the road. As long as Brad Penny continues to get starts…and as long as John Smoltz appears to be a shadow, I’d expect them to continue to be a good, but not great, team.
It’s worth remembering if you want to handicap this thing that the Yanks are the best pitching team on the road in the AL by a wide variety of traditional and non-traditional metrics.
well…Mike wants the red sox or rays to get him! so i stopped listening!!
He says it doesn’t “feel right”…i have never felt anything more right!
I don’t think Papelbon is shaky at all, he’s a terrific closer.
Shdw
July 21st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
I did the calculations with the Rays, Sox, and Yanks dropping their 5 worst and 5 best scores and here are the results:
Ray – +63
Red Sox – +74
Yankees – +61
***
Thats like when an investment advisor shows you how much money you would have made in the stock market if you weren’t invested on the markets 5 worst days
You need to consider totals. Either for a whole season, or as of a certain date
Well…Papelbum has been getting the job done. But he is getting hit all over the ball park this year.
Steinbrenner wouldn’t say what would happen if the Yankees don’t make it to the postseason yet again following their run of 13 consecutive playoff appearances. He also left little to the imagination.
“We expect to win every year. We’ve said that. We always say that,” he said. “Our job is to field a championship-caliber team every year, and that’s what we strive to do. So, Joe knows who he’s working for.”
———————————-
Nothing we didn’t know already— Joe needs to get to October, or he’s gone.
john_halfz : Awesome.
It’s going to take me a little while–especially since I’m going out in a few minutes for the afternoon–but when I am done I will be sure to provide a link.
Andrew
July 21st, 2009 at 1:21 pm
I am already regretting my lineup submission
I omitted Damon thinking he would sit due to his aches and pains/wet field/lefty starter, but I am already doubting that will happen. Also Joe will probably give Al a breather tomorrow in the day game after night game (so Al can go to the club with Kate Hudson tonight?), so I am just going to be way off. Oh well, got to be in it to win it, as they say.
***
Andrew, if you makes you feel better a few people seem to think A-Rod will be DHing tonight. Hang tight buddy. No one knows the inner mind of Joe Girardi
Don’t know where everyone is seeing the Rays with an easier schedule. Replacement Level Yankee Blog already analyzed it.
http://www.replacementlevel.co.....he_yankees
Yankees 71 GR 36 HGR .512 Opp Win%
Red Sox same thing
Rays 70 GR 36 HGR .521 Opp Win%
Run differentials are somewhat useful but it all comes down to wins and losses. Last year the two teams with the best run differentials (if I’m remembering correctly) were the Red Sox and Cubs. The team with the best record was the Angels (as good as they were, they were playing over their head all year long). In the end it came down to the Rays and Phillies.
The bottom line is, win a lot of games, get into the playoffs and hope your pitching can carry you to the world series.
“I don’t think Papelbon is shaky at all, he’s a terrific closer.”
He is a great closer, but he’s turning into the American League version of K-rod. Puts a ton of runners on and it seems every batter has a full count. All he does is just pound fastballs, doesn’t really seem to wanna throw anything else. I guess when you can throw it 98mph easily, you can do that though.
You are right though that the Red Sox do this sort of mid-july swoon and then pick up like nothing happened. Hopefully this year they just continue to hit like they’re middle aged
Okay, a little back story here.
Our local guy is from Long Island. But he’s been here for 3 decades doing UH sports.
He said that even now, when he goes to the mainland, he still hears that Chaminade (Div. II) over Virginia (#1) is the biggest upset. That and miracle on ice, of course. But right up there.
So, either you guys are young or it wasn’t really a big deal. But at the time it was huge because Virginia was 8-0 and had already beaten Five Slamma Jamma of Georgetown.
Chaminade is a teeny, tiny private school that shares a campus with (then) football powerhouse St. Louis High School.
Francessa’s logic is stupid. “What have the Yankees really proven if they get Halladay? That if they buy enough all stars they can win?”
What does any team prove? Even if the players are developed from within, all that proves is if you develop enough all stars, you win!
If they’re willing to trade him to us in a reasonable deal, you’d be a fool to say no.
Taking out the 5 best and 5 worst is the best way to look at run differential while accounting for the occasional blowout starts that turn into wins/losses. So it is a good way to see what the differentials should be as of right now
Neither the Sox or Rays are going to swoon… they will get stronger as the summer goes on.
There was 2 games in April where we lost to Cleveland 10-2 and 22-4….that’s a run differential of -26…now while thats a huge amount of runs that is only 2 losses in which the yankees have far made up for…so run differential can be decieving. A win is a win and a loss is a loss
When you say the Rays have an easy schedule, remember what the Yankees did against some of the “hard” parts of the schedule.
4-2 against Texas
4-4 against Tampa
7-0 against Minnesota
2-1 against Seattle
5-1 against Detroit
5-2 against Toronto
So basically, the Yankees are 22-9 against all the teams they have played that trail them in the wild card right now. That’s .710 ball against all the teams that are “fighting” us for a playoff spot right now.
The 0-8 against Boston is incredibly fluky. If they win at least 3-4 of the next 10 against them and even if they go say 1-2 in their next series against the Angels, their dominance of what amounts to 80% of the teams in the league will more than make up for it.
If they split the 10 against Boston, which would be more indicative of where these teams stand, they will more than likely easily win the division based on their play against the rest of the league. Playing a game or two worse than .500 against Boston will probably still win them the division.
if i was a manager i would regret any lineup that i put Cody Ransom in! lets be honest folks
The Rays schedule is not easy – they play the Yankees and Red Sox about 20 times combined in the last 70 some odd games. They also get LAA, Tex, Det and Toronto.
The Sox, Yanks and Rays play each other quite a bit the next two months and the results will determine the standings.
BTW the Red Sox do have some serious weaknesses but Papelbon (this year) is not one of them.
“Andrew, if you makes you feel better a few people seem to think A-Rod will be DHing tonight. Hang tight buddy. No one knows the inner mind of Joe Girardi”
See, I put A-Rod at DH, because I figured, we’ve been playing great baseball this week and even though A-Rod has played 4 games in a row at third, after having 4 days off, Girardi wants to do sometihng that’ll stir up conversation among us. What better way than throwing Ransom at third base with a ground ball machine on the mound?
The Red Sox seriously scare me more than any other team. The playoffs are an entirely different animal than the regular season so if we make it in then it’s a whole different ballgame, but they are IMO the most dangerous team in the league.
Does anyone else think that there is a sublime irony in statheads using a sophisticated mathematical formula to measure the effects of “luck?”
I don’t think Papelbon is shaky at all, he’s a terrific closer.
–
Did you see the all-star game? That is a microcosm of his season. It takes him 30 pitches to close out a game. He has been very fortunate in many of his saves.
I think A-Rod will play…Mitre may need Matsui and A-Rod
message to Francessa:
Halladay would not waive his no-trade, to go to the Mets. All the talk is for nothing. Idiot.
I’ve read that the Yankees have the easiest schedule.
But you still have to play who’s in front of you.
Big props to TB for fighting back in all 3 KC wins.
“Rays have the 3rd ranked bullpen in baseball. Where are people getting this notion that they have a bad pen?
Rays have the 2nd ranked BP in the AL, 4th ranked ERA, and 2nd in runs scored. They are going nowhere.”
People get this notion from the names Grant Balfour, Randy Choate, Chad Bradford, Lance Cormier and Dan Wheeler. Those guys are not very good, and their performance so far would show them as being one of the top ‘pens in the AL but I do not think that it is or will continue to perform that way–they totally lack a shut-down presence for a tight, late-game situation. They have assembled a bunch of match-up guys, which has worked, but I don’t think it will continue to work during the pennant race. Howell has done a nice job as closer, but I think that is one area of their team due for a regression from their performance so far.
Pythagorean theory is dumb (the baseball one anyway). It’s a predictor in the sense that it’s calculated by taking a large sample of games and finding the average net run that would equal a win. It has too many flaws to say with any real authority to calculate luck and such.
More importantly to the equation is pitching. Of the three AL East contenders, I think Boston’s pitching is the weakest.
Sure, you can listen to Gammons on BB tonight and get the idea that the Sox have the deepest staff.
Then you look at reality:
Smoltz is not getting it done.
Penny and Lester are replacement level this year–you are a Sox fanboy if you think otherwise.
Who is Dice-K? (Kind of like who is Kaiser Sose?)
Beckett is having a good year, granted, but the Sox season is going to come down to Bucholtz (rookie-like) and Wakefield (42 year old knuckleballer).
Gee, who was the last team pinning its hopes on a 42 year old and a rookie? Sounds like the 2007 Yankees, and look where that ended up.
Come October 1st: Yankees AL East Champs, Rays and Texas fighting for WC, Boston out of it.
I think even if we win a couple against Boston it’ll be an uphill battle. The Rays will only get better. This is not going to be easy, but I think we’ll win the wild card.
Repost: July 21st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....uck-14539/
“A second half search for a little bit of luck”
According to RAB, if you’re at zero that you are not lcucky or unlucky, you’re as good as you’re supposed to be. The Yanks are at -!. The Sox are at +6. The Rays are at -9.
So the Rays should get much luckier, the Yanks should get a bit luckier and the Sox should get much less lucky.
“back of the rotation. And he’s better than 5+ ERA…you get him when his value is low not high.”
Back of the rotation? Where? The minor leagues? He’s in the National League… and in the weakest division. A 5 era and he barely qualifies for starts. His k/9 is nice but his h/9 voids that stat. He’s also 26 but from the DR which means he’s actually 30. He would be slaughtered in the AL east.
Buster Olney just said Justin Duchscherer and the Yankees makes sense
Good point Ed H. Next thing you know someone will come up with a “Luck Quotient” to capture all the subtle nuances that numbers cannot. And last I looked a win by one run was just as valuable as a win by nine runs.
Papelbon’s K/9 is down (not much but it is) and his BB/9 has ballooned to 4. Second worse K/BB of his career. Second highest HR/9 of his career. Second highest .avg against of his career. Whip of 1.3. Completely unsustainable 95% LOB. All of his stats are basically only better than his debut season. He is trending downward.
Last season he posted a very nice GB%, this season he is back to being a fly ball pitcher.
Opponents are swinging less and making more contact when they do.
PittsburghYankeeFan-The 07′ Yanks made hte playoffs.
I still disagree. Lester has been excellent, Wakefield bleh but all right, Beckett excellent, Papelbon excellent, Bucholz should work fine as a fith starter.
Assuming that Kazmir rebounds as he gets healthier, the Rays have the best rotation in the division.
Shields, Kazmir, Garza, Niemenn, Price is better than
CC, AJ, Joba, Andy, Mitre
or Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Smoltz, Penny
When looked at pragmatically, the Red Sox have legit concerns w/their offense.
leadoff has been a black hole (statistically, the spot is less productive than the #9 spot).
Oriz, Lowell & Varitek are not going to get any younger.
playing SS for the Red Sox is the baseball equivalent of playing drums for Spinal Tap.
Lars Anderson, basically their sole power hitting prospect, has 8 HRs in 361 ABs in Double A (Jesus Montero, by comparison, has 7 HRs in 123 ABs in the same league).
Their reluctance to trade viable young arms means their offensive holes will need to be plugged w/in-house talent, which I’ve pointed out doesn’t really exist.
I’d be beaten over the head w/the ‘8-0′ head-to-head record by RSN, but I stand by my assessment: the Sox have major offensive concerns that may not be solved w/another Epstein trade deadline deft trade or two.
Nick-I don’t see Kazmir rebounding.
I still see the Rays pen as their Achilles heel.
Minnesota, Seattle, and Toronto are not in the same breath as Boston, Angels, Rays.
Buster is irritating me. All he’s been doing for the last two days is beating that Phillies/Halladay drum.
Rich James July 21st, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Buster Olney just said Justin Duchscherer and the Yankees makes sense
Can we trade for him before we play him?
It’s not luck, the Yankees bullpen is better and that makes the difference
Duchsherer is not going to be 100% ready to pitch every 5 days until 2010, the A’s are taking his rehab real slow. I don’t see how him to the Yankees makes sense unless Buster was talking about this offseason.
PittsburghYankeeFan,
How is Lester “replacement level” this year? His record isn’t indicative of how well he’s pitched. His era is 3.87 and after struggling to begin the season, over the past month he’s 3 – 1 with a 1.82 era. He’s starting to pitch much like he did last season. He’s the pitcher I fear the most on Boston
Rich James
Wait a second is he injured?
Clint:
Kind of. If the season were 10 games long, an outlier could seriously distort the end results. After you pass the critical sample size threshold, not so much. If every player in the NBA declared a primary residence of Jenner, CA (pop. 90), the mean height in Jenner would be through the roof. But by the time your city population was 12,500 (v. quick and dirty), the NBA players (500 or so?) wouldn’t significantly affect the mean or median. The only thing that would differ would be your odds of randomly selecting someone 6′ 6″ or higher.
kid A:
Nick Johnson would help. Hopefully, they don’t get him. Then again, where would he play?
Red Sox –
1b – Youkilis has come back to earth from his other-worldly start to the season but is rock solid
2b – Pedroia has been solid
SS – Yikes! Lugo is now gone. Green has plummeted. Is Lowrie the answer
3b – Lowell needs crutches to play. He will likely be playing only part time.
RF – Drew by some miracle has stayed healthy all year, but is not close to living up to his contract. A very, very mediocre year
CF – Ellsbury has been good not great. Back to the leadoff spot in the lineup, we will see if he can get on base.
LF – Bay is way down the last two months. He is regressing back to his career norms and is striking out a ton.
DH – Ortiz is better than he was, but is still in the 220s
C -Varitek has hit for power not much average and is getting older. Kottaras is fine as a backup.
Beckett and Lester – have both been top of the rotation starters
Wakefield – has won a lot of games with mediocre peripherals. Is due for his summer swoon.
Back end – Smoltz and Penny are showing cracks. Can they last? Is Bucholz the answer – nice start in his cameo.
Bullpen – has been very solid. But they do have some chinks.
No bench to speak of.
What moves will they make?
m
July 21st, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Okay, a little back story here.
Our local guy is from Long Island. But he’s been here for 3 decades doing UH sports.
He said that even now, when he goes to the mainland, he still hears that Chaminade (Div. II) over Virginia (#1) is the biggest upset. That and miracle on ice, of course. But right up there.
So, either you guys are young or it wasn’t really a big deal. But at the time it was huge because Virginia was 8-0 and had already beaten Five Slamma Jamma of Georgetown.
Chaminade is a teeny, tiny private school that shares a campus with (then) football powerhouse St. Louis High School.
wow
not for a c’ship
does it count if no one remembers it?
Richmond Spiders beat Syracuse
And Justin D. is coming off surgery. We don’t have time for him to round into form.
Toronto is under .500
Seattle is 6 games over .500
Minnesota is 1 game over .500
Boston is 18 games over .500 (0-8)
Angels are 14 games over .500 (2-4)
Rays are 10 games over .500 (4-4)
Ok he had his elbow cleaned up! My fault!
You are right though that the Red Sox do this sort of mid-july swoon and then pick up like nothing happened. Hopefully this year they just continue to hit like they’re middle aged
======
I think it’s more than a hope: they have suffered a terrible loss.
The Great Redeemer – the bat of Manny Ramirez – is gone.
And as much as everyone has strained to create a politically correct Wonderbread version of Manny – Jason Bay – the facts are facts.
They fell short of the WS last year because they didn’t have Manny in the lineup to protect Papi and exploit the TB bullpen.
They get to the WS with Manny.
They’re going to be 7-8 games behind us when the dust finally settles.
Why wouldn’t Kazmir rebound? If he stays healthy, he isin’t going to pitch to a 6 ERA.
And the Rays have the 3rd ranked bullpen in the league, stop this nonsense about how they have a bad pen.
vinny-b,
I’m worried about the Red Sox making a run at Victor Martinez. He’s said he wants to stay in Cleveland, but he’d be exactly the type of player the Red Sox needs. He can play first and catcher, and it allows the Red Sox to move youkilis to third base if lowell’s hip starts bothering him again.
Justin Duchscherer is indeed injuried right now… he is on a rehab stint as we speak.
but he should be back by the july 31 trade deadline or in early august which would be a waiver deal
The question is, why hasn’t Kazmir rebounded yet? He looked decent the other night and then he got waxed. Or the bullpen got waxed. One or the other.
Everybody says all these brave words about Boston whenever we catch them and then you blink two weeks later and we’re four games back.
I think the Yanks make the wild card three up of Tampa Bay and three back from Boston.
All this being said, it would not shock me if we won the division, we’re a great team.
bodhisattva,
I don’t think the Yankees will be 7 – 8 games ahead of Boston when the season ends. But, I agree I think they’ll be behind us when the dust settles. I’ve long said even if we go 4 – 14 against Boston this year, I think we’ll win the division by 2 or 3 games. I’ve been saying that since May. When it happens, I’ll have the biggest smile on my face
Pen’s are the most unpredictable things to predict.
Just because a team doesn’t have big names, doesn’t mean they can’t be effective. Look at our pen last year. We had Farnsworth, Hawkins, Veras, Edwar, Ohlendorf etc. and had one of the top pens in baseball.
Saying the Rays can’t have a good pen because their guys don’t have track records is flawed and it’s been proven year after year.
Matthew-Why wouldn’t Wang rebound?
I think his injury problems are gonna plague him throughout the year.
I don’t care what their bulpen ERA is, the names in the pen are way overachieving and the Yankees have gotten to them before.
Everybody says all these brave words about Boston whenever we catch them and then you blink two weeks later and we’re four games back.
—
We’re better against the rest of the league than Boston. The reason why we can’t hold a lead on them in the standings is purely a result of our HTH record. If the yankees start winning some HTH it’ll be a different story. And once we get all 18 in the books it’ll be a VERY different story.
I don’t want Halladay. BUT what the heck doees “feeling right” have to do with it? As in, the Yankees have so much money and young talent they should be embarrassed? For all intents and purposes, the Yankees have lost their #3 starter. They really could use another pitcher, though I am willing to see what Mitre has to offer and that “other pitcher” certainy does not have to be Halladay.
But it would “feel right” for the Rays, who’s weakness is not starting pitching or the Red Sox, who we are told has tremendous depth in its pitching staff to go ahead and get Halladay?
The Rays really don’t have the money to pay him.
The Red Sox do. And the Red Sox also have some pieces to give up for him.
But I would think that the Rays and Red Sox are at the same disadvantage as the Yankees in that Ricciardi prefers not to deal in-division.
Doesn’t feel right! That’s nuts. But that’s Francesa, isn’t it? There are real arguments for not getting Halladay. It not feeling right isn’t even on the list.
“Why wouldn’t Kazmir rebound? If he stays healthy, he isin’t going to pitch to a 6 ERA.”
Because health and Kazmir are in no way best friends. Furthermore he is up and down as a starter when healthy. He gets hot for stretches and is a dominant ace-type, but he has also struggled with command for stretches of time. Can’t say that he is going to definitely carry them, just like you can’t say the Yankees’ 3 and 4 guys are going to always pitch like they did the last 2 times out. We will just have to see how it plays out.
The bottom line is, the Rays are now supposed to be the big bad wolf the Yankees have to worry about but they have just as many question marks as the Yankees do.
Ramey:
for what the Redsox would have to give up (to obtain Victor Martinez) they could probably land Halladay.
don’t you think?
Banks-True; but look what happened when we used the same names this year.
I think it’s gonna be a close race to the end.
I’d like to see the Yanks score a few more runs by something other than a HR but I guess they haven’t become known over the years as the Bronx Bombers because of their bunting ability.
Still, seeing a few runs scored by balls not leaving the park would make me feel better about the Yanks overall.
“Everybody says all these brave words about Boston whenever we catch them and then you blink two weeks later and we’re four games back.”
Bingo. They are just going through a slump, while we are red hot. In a couple of weeks, the tables might be turned. We might slump, while they rattle off 7 in a row.
We were 8 games ahead of Tampa last month at one point, and within 2 weeks, the lead was down to 3 games. These things always even out. Boston will get hot again soon, Tampa will cool off, as will we. Then the cycle will repeat itself.
This is the 3rd time we have reached first place this season. (The first was the end of May).
I have no doubt that even if we fall out of first again, we can reclaim the spot.
And this is with being 0-8 against Boston (not to bring that up)
Jerkface-Hopefully.
I just don’t think so. I’m trying to look at this objectively and not from a Yankee fan bias.
See, this is where all your statistics miss the point.
Toronto’s record beginning each series against Yankees:
22-12 (took 2/3)
42-38 (took 3/4)
Minnesota:
43-40 (3 game sweep)
18-17 (4 game sweep)
Texas:
26-17 (Took 2/3)
30-20 (Took 2/3)
Seattle:
39-36 (Took 2/3)
Detroit:
10-8 (Took 2/3)
48-39 (3 game sweep)
Maybe their records don’t look as great because the YANKEES ARE BEATING THEM?
Against all other teams in the league, Minnesota plays .547 ball, while altogether .505. See how it’s misleading? Boston plays .560 ball against all teams not named the Yankees, which in fact is not that far off from what the Twins do against all non-Yankee teams.
Take your stats with a grain of salt unless you’re willing to delve deeper.
The past 3 games made me think of what the Yanks have been missing in the postseason.
Starting pitchers who keep it close enough so a late inning run or 2 can make a difference.
I thought 19-year-olds weren’t supposed to be able to do this?:
http://www.baseball-reference......nter001jes
Aye dios mio!
According to the San Jose Murcery News…Justin Duchscherer is pitching a simulated game in Phoenix today
“I’d like to see the Yanks score a few more runs by something other than a HR but I guess they haven’t become known over the years as the Bronx Bombers because of their bunting ability.”
That just made me laugh.
Mercury*
Why can’t Randy Chote keep this up?
Didn’t Cliff Politte, a journeyman himself, have a breakout season in 05 for the WS champion White Sox?
Such is the nature of bullpens. The fringiest of arms can have a breakout year at any time.
“I don’t care what their bulpen ERA is, the names in the pen are way overachieving and the Yankees have gotten to them before.”
This is the argument against the Rays’ bullpen.
“Just because a team doesn’t have big names, doesn’t mean they can’t be effective. Look at our pen last year. We had Farnsworth, Hawkins, Veras, Edwar, Ohlendorf etc. and had one of the top pens in baseball.”
The Yankees also eventually watched all of those guys blow up in their faces, but had the depth to find replacements. The Rays are supposed to have that depth, too, but they went through a stretch where they brought the ghost of Jason Isringhausen in because they were in such dire need of a reliever, and Randy Choate was in no way a part of genius Andrew Friedman’s blueprint at the start of the year, in terms of being his go-to lefty reliever.
vinny-b:
without question they could certainly land halladay with what they’d have to give up to get martinez. But, I think their offensive problems far outweigh any questions in their rotation. At least that’s just the way I see it when I watch their games.
I don’t care what anyone says about Big Papi’s recent ability to hit home runs again, his bat speed is entirely gone. Varitek and Drew are both batting in the .230’s. Bay has fallen off the last 6 weeks. Even Youkilis is slumping a bit the past month.
Smoltz and Penny have obviously been shaky when they’ve pitched recently, but I think you can expect better results occurring out of them, than the likes of Ortiz, Drew or Varitek.
If you take those same run differentials and apply them to the Euclidean algorithm, the results state that the Yanks are the best team ever!
And interestingly enough if you again apply those same numbers but to the binomial inverse theorem, the results state the Red Sox all possess tiny sex organs.
Weird huh?
Montero is now being officially entered into the Pantheon of Olympus as a minor god (minor being minor leagues).
Mo of course is the head of the gods. To be a major god Montero must put up similar numbers in the majors.
I love the way that the Yankees play Boston at the end of long road trips this year.
Thanks MLB!
I don’t know if this has been mentioned but the Yankees run differential would be a lot better if not for a couple of blowouts early in the year. Games like the 15-5 loss to Tampa and the 10-2 and the 22-4 losses to Cleveland drastically hurt the Yanks run differential. In those games alone they are a -36.
JJ-Of course they COULD keep it up. I just don’t think they will. And it doesn’t scare me when the Yanks face them.
The two biggest upsets in college basketball are as follows:
# 1 NC State over Houston. Phi Slamma Jamma was loaded with NBA talent and should have routed the Wolfpack, but Jim Valvano’s team controlled tempo and got the win. Much bigger upset than Villanova which had played Georgetown vfery tough in previous meetings that season.
# 2 Notre Dame over UCLA snapping the Bruins amazing 88-game winning streak. John Shumate and Gary Brokaw were amazing and Dwight Clay hit a baseline jumper to take the lead. UCLa missed three or four shots in the closing seconds and the Irish had the win. Much bigger than Chaminade because UCLA was a super team and it was on national TV in front of a packed house not at a Holiday Tournament in a dumpy gym with 15-hundred on hand
You guys think the Yankees are hot?
They have scored 11 runs in the last 4 games (2.75 runs/game)!
Part of that comes from facing good pitching, but also they have been pretty mediocre with RISP lately as well. What’s to say this team doesn’t start rattling off even more wins when their offense heats up again?
This winning streak has even included an ok, not great start from Burnett, so it’s not like our pitching is firing on all cylinders either.
So much room for improvement with this team. Bruney has been awful, Marte is coming back soon, even Wang will hopefully be back eventually and until recently the back of the rotation has been inconsistent. If any of those things turn around, the team will run off a streak just like they have done lately. There’s so much more left for this team to do than they have done.
pat,
I agree. But we faced some damn good pitching in the second half.
This team plays well on the road. It has good pitching with an excellent record in low scoring games.
The difference between us and the Sox right now is that 0-8 & the fact that the Red Sox are 8-14 against the AL West (yes, I realize they’ve completed the road portion of that schedule).
I don’t know who this Pythagorean guy is.
But if he can go 5 and keep the Yanks in the game –
I say make him the 5th starter.
Similarly, what track records do Coke, Aceves, Bruney, Tomko, Robertson, Melancon, Albaladejo etc. have?
Big names don’t equal big success.
“And interestingly enough if you again apply those same numbers but to the binomial inverse theorem, the results state the Red Sox all possess tiny sex organs.”
“Weird huh?”
I didn’t need a complicated theorem to tell me that.
matt,
AJ gave up 3 runs that game. Our pitching is the only thing firing right now.
You conveniently left out Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera, LLIME.
I can’t take the time to calculate this now, but I found data on the 2008 Astros, who are as representative as any team because they played 162 games. The average run differential in games they played was 3.39. The standard deviation was 2.41. 95.5% of games would be expected to have differentials within the mean + 2 standard deviations (8.22). So 95.5% of games end with a margin of victory of 8 runs or fewer. In other words, statistical tools like pythag, given a big enough sample size, are designed to accommodate the 5% of games where the margin of victory exceeds 8 runs.
Of course, an 18 run differential is a very extreme event. A margin of victory of 11 runs or more will occur on average once in every 1,000 games played. So that’s where my idea of the 10 run cap came in.
The point is, though, that because every team experiences outliers, it doesn’t necessarily change things as much as you think to remove them. I’d say in the case of 2009, though, that calculating after May 8 is defensible insofar as the swap of Ransom for Rodriguez is a mega-changing event.
Ramey
July 21st, 2009 at 1:41 pm
bodhisattva,
I don’t think the Yankees will be 7 – 8 games ahead of Boston when the season ends. But, I agree I think they’ll be behind us when the dust settles. I’ve long said even if we go 4 – 14 against Boston this year, I think we’ll win the division by 2 or 3 games. I’ve been saying that since May. When it happens, I’ll have the biggest smile on my face
===
And I’ve been saying 7-8 all year for a reason:
We began the season with some new parts who were anything but ancillary.
We added two SPs who were expected to be 1-2 in the rotation.
We added a 1B who was going to hit in front of ARod.
Joba facing his first full year as a starter, etc.
We had a brand new ballpark.
We had Mariano coming off of surgery.
Boston returned essentially the same team.
We had an adjustment period in becoming “a team”, and even with the Wang Crisis and the ARod injury, we’re tied for first.
We also have resources to draw upon if we have BP needs: Melancon, Dunn.
Unfortunately, we lost depth in the SR and guys who might have helped out: Garcia, Kennedy, Horne, – are either done or slowly making their way back.
Still, we are better disposed for the long haul than they are, because we have better pitching, a better bullpen, and a more potent offense.
They do have a much lighter schedule – no more West Coast trips while we still have two more, and more home games. In fact, MLB strikes again, scheduling us to play at Fenway the day after flying in from the Coast.
I still see us pulling away from them, and I see Tampa being the real challenger to the division title.
Mets Halladay
so who the be the equals of the players alleged to be asked for in the Yanks system????
Pena
Kennedy
Duncan
The Yankees did not have Hawkins, Ohlendorf, etc in their pen when it was doing well. That was more due to Veras, Bruney, and Marte down the stretch. 2 of those guys were not on your list and only one of those guys on your list was a real contributor. Edwar Ramirez was pretty terrible for stretches and had trouble throwing strikes sometimes.
The Boston bullpen is good, but definitely overrated. We’ve seen it lately, that their pen will be overexposed if their rotation does not give them innings, just like any team’s pen. When their starters have been more mediocre, so has their pen. They were lucky early in the year to get career performances out of Penny, Beckett, Wakefield, etc, but those guys are falling back to earth a little. Watch for their pen to go with it.
LLIME-Coke and Aceves are rookies. Bruney has been money for the past season and for the first month of this season but now if you notice he’s doing bad. Tomko has been bad. Robertson and Melancon are rookies. Albaladejo is in the minors.
Rookies can be good or bad.
I’m sorry, the Rays pen does not impress me.
bodhisattva:
good reasoning. Let’s call it in the middle and say we win the division by 6!
m,
AJ was terrible for most of that game, and a few quick innings at the end covered up what was a very mediocre start for him, and what would have likely been 5 IP 3 ER under most circumstances.
I say wild card, trailing Boston by three and leading the Rays by three.
But I would not be shocked if we won the division, we’re a great team.
Maddon is VERY good at playing the matchup game. He doesn’t overexpose any of his guys.
He uses Chote for lefties, Balfour/Nelson for righties, Bradford as a specialist etc. Howell is the only one who has a defined role as the closer.
The Yankees players equal to what was asked of the Mets for Halladay would be something like Jackson, Melancon, McAllister and Eduardo Nunez.
“Our pitching is the only thing firing right now.”
m
The pitching has been good but don’t forget the defense. It’s been the pitchers BFF lately.
Uncle Ellsworth
Philly
San Francisco
Milwaukee
St.Louis
Where do you think he goes ?
JP Howell III & Grant Fourballs are not as lockdown as they were last season. Howell, Balfour, and Price were a huge part of them making the WS last season.
We all know that bullpens are the most capricious facet of any team.
If Tampa gets Halladay, watch out.
OUR HOUSE
I stand corrected about Lester–his record doesn’t show it, but he really has come on the past month in WHIP and ERA.
That being said, they have Lester and Beckett and sure things. The rest of the rotation is questions, not answers.
john_halfz is right. The Red Sox are overrated in terms of their pitching. They only have lester, beckett. Wakefield, Smoltz, and Penny are all question marks going into the playoffs. Wakefield has been lucky because he has had plenty of run support. The Red Sox are a good team but they aren’t great, and we all know that the Red Sox always come out strong in the first half and do worse in the second half of the season.
Those two plays at home plate should have been number one on top plays, ridiculous that they weren’t.
JP Howell has a lower ERA than Rivera.
Wheeler’s 3.38 ERA ain’t bad either. Take out his 07 season and he has been excellent the last 5 years. One blip is all he has.
PittsburghYankeeFan -Wakefield is bleh, but not bad (ridiculous all star).
Bucholz did good in his first start, so if Smoltz does bad they could spell him in there.
matt,
AJ Burnett had NO curve ball…NO FB command he got pitched 6 innings…3 runs.
Thats the sign of a good pitcher…he battled the heck out of that game and gave the yankees a chance to win!
Yanks got Burnett, CC and Joba going for the rays series, not worried about playing them.
If JP Howell having a lower ERA than Mo isn’t a fluke I don’t know what is.
matt,
You’re totally missing the point.
Howell may have a lower ERA than Rivera, but Howell was untouchable last season. But he can be hit this season.
These same arms in the pen all performed on the biggest stage last year in October, and are continuing their success this year.
Why do people think they are going to fall off?
matt,
You’re totally missing the point.
Zach,
Howell may have a lower ERA than Rivera, but Howell was untouchable last season. But he can be hit this season.
“The Yankees players equal to what was asked of the Mets for Halladay would be something like Jackson, Melancon, McAllister and Eduardo Nunez.”
What are you smoking ?
Niese = Bleich
Mejia = Dunn
Pharnell = Melancon
Tejada = Pena (who hits better than Tejeda)
That deal is a joke, the AL East would never get that type of a deal offeredbetween each other.
Pete,
The Rays have only been +3 in run differential over the last month and they’ve gone 14-8 over that stretch, so while they were unlucky early in the season, they haven’t been playing to that level for a while and have actually been quite lucky of late.
It’s just funny how arrogant some people are. You would think after missing the playoffs last year, some of us would be knocked back down to earth, realizing we are not guaranteed anything anymore.
m,
Fine. If you think we’re guaranteed a playoff birth and it’s going be smooth sailing, that’s your prerogative. It’s not reality.
“Howell may have a lower ERA than Rivera, but Howell was untouchable last season. But he can be hit this season.”
m,
I’m confused what you mean by that. Howell is having a better year this year than he did last. His hits per 9 innings are the same, but his walks per 9 are down and his strikes per 9 are up. I very well could have entirely misunderstand what you said, but how is he able to be hit this season?
Oh, also, the yankees have had a +29 over the same stretch and have gone 17-6, so the luck has evened out just fine.
Uncle Ellsworth July 21st, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Mets Halladay
so who the be the equals of the players alleged to be asked for in the Yanks system????
Pena
Kennedy
Duncan
================
That’s what it sounded like. I was going to say that the Mets needed a bat instead, but I’ll amend that to they need all the help they can get.
If it weren’t for the Royals terrible bullpen, they would have swept the Rays this weekend. The Rays don’t scare me.
By the way, just wanted to point out Robbie Cano’s two brilliant plays that he got no love for, deking out the runner twice, and saving a sure run once, in the dramatic eighth inning.
If Robbie Cano doesn’t deke that runner out than those two great plays mean nothing.
Brandon… I’M AWESOME ! (Can we steal Jonathan Sanchez already)
July 21st, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Uncle Ellsworth
Philly
San Francisco
Milwaukee
St.Louis
Where do you think he goes ?
I don’t know Philly?
Ramey
July 21st, 2009 at 1:53 pm
bodhisattva:
good reasoning. Let’s call it in the middle and say we win the division by 6!
===
Well, let’s say we’re up on Boston by 6 – because being up on Boston by six doesn’t equate to winning the division by 6, if you believe as I do – that the Rays will finish behind us, not Boston.
Of course, your version would be better – win by six, clinching early enough to get in some rest for our older regs
Angels had the best RD last year because they played in the weakest division.
The Angels talent level relative to their division was much more than the Cubs or Red Sox relative to their division. Cubs and Brewers were more evenly matched than the Angels and Rangers were.
Either way, the top RD teams all made the playoffs. It is a sign of a good team, not a sign of the best team.
I think we make the playoffs, definitely. But I don’t think we beat out Boston and I don’t think the Raysare going away.
I would bet that it’s going to come down to that final weekend in Tampa to determine a playoff spot.
JINT,
Seriously? You’re giving us a lecture on arrogance?
Nobody is saying anything is guaranteed. We’re having a baseball discussion. Nothing more, nothing less.
You can have respect for contenders without cowering in fear and bowing down to their greatness.
I don’t see anything untoward or anything resembling trash talking here.
If anything, too much credit is being given to the Rays & the Sox.
Our team is tied for first place right this moment. I’m going to enjoy it while it lasts.
m, sorry I missed out earlier I was at lunch. I would have guessed the Hokies over UNC in 06-07 (twice that year)…App State over Michigan is another good division II school over a division I…although Michigan hasn’t been Michigan for a few years.
Wilson July 21st, 2009 at 2:05 pm
I would bet that it’s going to come down to that final weekend in Tampa to determine a playoff spot.
Naw
bodhisattva;
You’re absolutely right. I agree that the Rays are going to be right there at the end. Can we just hope their entire team gets a case of the measles and they have to forfeit the last 10 days?
JINT
July 21st, 2009 at 2:01 pm
It’s just funny how arrogant some people are. You would think after missing the playoffs last year, some of us would be knocked back down to earth, realizing we are not guaranteed anything anymore.
___________________________________
If someone thought the yankees would be guaranteed a playoff spot last year with Darrell Rasner and Sindney Ponson as the #3 and #4 pitchers…they were idiots!
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN
July 21st, 2009 at 2:04 pm
By the way, just wanted to point out Robbie Cano’s two brilliant plays that he got no love for, deking out the runner twice, and saving a sure run once, in the dramatic eighth inning.
If Robbie Cano doesn’t deke that runner out than those two great plays mean nothing.
====
If only Cano looked like Andy Phillips – instead of the begrudging, occasional bone to deafeaning silence – people would be kissing his nuts.
BTW: Concur with GB7 comment that Cano deserves a GG.
Tampa Bay is second in baseball with RISP, tops in on base percentage. Last year I think they were second or third worst in all of baseball with RISP.
The big differences are the starting pitching is no where as consistent or as good as they had last year.
The bullpen was great last year and simply isn’t Balfour, Wheeler were all lights out last year.
The Edwin Jackson trade was horrible. I never understood the trade. They made an awesome one landing Garza and Bartlett for Delomon Young and Harris. So why would you do the reverse trade?
The offense tends to go as BJ Upton goes and he has sputtered this year for sure.
And injuries this year. They had 5 starters last year that essentially went full strength start to finish.
Brandon,
Word is the offer Heyman is talking about is just a bogus rumor.
Cano has gotten NO love for that absolutely brilliant play…there’s something rotten in the state of New York…
matt,
You’re missing my point about our pitching. AJ gave up 3 ER. Even if he wasn’t rusty, that’s hardly horrible. The other 3 games we gave up 3 total. That’s 1+1+1.
I made no other comments to you. And I never said anything was smooth sailing.
btw, it’s berth.
How does Bartlett a .345 hitter bat 9th and .240 hitter Upton bat first?
Tampa is a very good team & so is Boston. I believe the Yankees are better, but I am biased. I work here in Florida near Tampa and listen to their daily exploits. Their bullpen has cost them multiple games and at one point 3 games in a row.JP Howell has stabalized the closer position, but he is not a classic style power pitcher closer.
Tampa plays great defense and literally has an All-Star infield and all Gold-Glove caliber. Their OF of Uptown & Crawford is exceptionally fast & great D. Zorbist was their best all around other OF, but he is now the 2B. They are not going away. Boston IMO will fade fast, but I expect Theo to make a move for a hitter & a pitcher. Both Tampa & Boston’s bullpens of late have been taxed with short starts from a few starters.
Also, August is the time that the Wakefield’s knuckleball starts to go awry and the cold weather of mid to late September seems to affect it as well. I predicted a 4th place finish for Boston at the beginning of the season with Toronto finishing 3rd. That could still happen, LOL, but not likely. I think Boston finishes 3rd and I don’t believe the 2nd place AL East team is a lock for a wildcard.
My biggest argument with the way that the Pythagorean formula is being used, aside from serious questions about its intrinsic validity, is that it is being used to predict future results. At best, even assuming that it measures accurately something that is a real effect, it would describe what has happened in the past. It is not designed to isolate factors that predict future performance and then use them to predict future outcomes. It does not identify and factor in performance trends, such as improvements or worsening in run production or prevention. Not even close.
For example, the Yankees’ pitching has been improving over the course of the season as they rebuilt their bullpen and made changes to their rotation. Chien Ming Wang, Edwar Ramirez et al are no longer factors in the team’s results, but their effects upon the team are factored into the equation. Alex Rodriguez’ absence from the lineup, an important factor in the early going, is no longer a factor either.
Ramey
July 21st, 2009 at 2:06 pm
bodhisattva;
You’re absolutely right. I agree that the Rays are going to be right there at the end. Can we just hope their entire team gets a case of the measles and they have to forfeit the last 10 days?
====
You hope for that & I’ll continue to do swami chant to ensure an immortal season for our boys in blue
Some of us have loved this team’s chances since the winter. Even after Wang’s troubles, we felt good about the team. So don’t paint us all with the same bandwagon brush. You guys want to hawk your negative stuff? Fine, but not everyone’s buying it.
If we can’t feel good about the team now, what are we supposed to feel?
if Robi wins a GG I’ll eat my hat
He’s been labled – all his fine play will not be seen or considered.
it is a shame.
Tex Should/will win though.
Matt
July 21st, 2009 at 2:02 pm
m,
Fine. If you think we’re guaranteed a playoff birth and it’s going be smooth sailing, that’s your prerogative. It’s not reality.
===========================
m -
I didn’t know you were expecting! A playoff birth would be so untimely and inconvenient.
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN
July 21st, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Cano has gotten NO love for that absolutely brilliant play…there’s something rotten in the state of New York…
===
I just read a comment the other day from a fan who hissed: “How long is Cashman going to force us to put up with Cano’s defensive nonchalance?”
I have no words…
Doreen,
Shut your mouth. If I didn’t stop at 30, I’d have a reality show right now!
Starting Pitching for the Rays per game
Kazmir 5.23 innings per start
Niemann 5.68 innings per start
Price 5 innings per start
Shields 6.7 per start
Garza 6.31
People complain about Joba’s length in games, but look what the Rays are getting. A solid starting staff makes a bullpen. Gives them rest. Overtaxing any pen kills you. The Rays pen is getting taxed.
Rays are a Garza or Shields injury from suffering a major setback.
“I just read a comment the other day from a fan who hissed: “How long is Cashman going to force us to put up with Cano’s defensive nonchalance?”
bodhisattva:
you have to give their ignorance some credit. i mean it’s impressive that somebody that blind is able to get on a computer and type such nonsense.
I’ve been more impressed with Cano’s fielding this season than his hitting (without runners in scoring position, of course). He just seems to be as comfortable in the field, if not more, than the days he had bowa chirping in his ear every 5 minutes.
Cano has been fantastic defensively this season.
In reality, there were three incredible plas yesterday, Cano’s deke, Tex’s throw/Molina’s tag, and Molina’s throw/Coke’s tag. Robbie’s play ws right there with those two.
I couldn’t read every post in this thread but i only saw 1 post regarding the margin of error for the pythag theorem, but if i remember correctly the margin of error over the course of the entire season is +/- 3 games. So right now the margin of error is prolly somewhere around 10 games-ish.
Also there is a way to modify the exponent to make it more accurate which is very annoying to do so people don’t bother there ass doing it.
What am i trying to say? With the 22-4 beat down and only 92 games played the Yankees are most likely going to put thrown into the negative margin of error. Also the 3 teams are so close that using this measure at this time is completely pointless. Come back at the end of the year to find out who got lucky at this point your just arguing over statistical noise.
Rays starting pitching has been inconsistent all year.
m -
Sorry – I could not resist that one.
What if one of the players gave the Yankees an on-field playoff birth? lol
Ramey,
I have a post-All Star Break resolution: let stupid people revel in their stupidity.
I was put to the test during Joba’s start the other day at the Stadium. I know this idiot was put in my ear to test me:
“The Yankees don’t want to admit they made a mistake” (that Joba “belongs in the BP” – this while Joba was busy mowing down the Tigers).
“Thanks Joba – you still suck.”
His girlfriend’s comment to ARod: “It’s alright Alex – you can get your uniform dirty.”
Apparently thinks ARod is a primadonna who doesn’t get his uniform dirty….
I was becoming riled, but then I found myself laughing….not worth my energy.
To clarify, their “mistake” is that he should be a starter…
“Cano has gotten NO love for that absolutely brilliant play…there’s something rotten in the state of New York…”
I, for one, cannot complain about Cano’s defense. He’s been putting in some Gold Glove type work at 2B. Now, if we can just get him to hit with men on base………
Or hustle or run out ground balls
“If we can’t feel good about the team now, what are we supposed to feel?”
We’re supposed to feel REALLY good! Come on, people – three straight games where they won the game by 1 run? That’s frakin’ amazing! That tells me that they got good starting pitching and the bullpen did their job as well. We can’t ask for more than that. Well, it would be nice for the offense to get going again, but I won’t go there.
I was 5 years old when Nova upset Georgetown and I remember it like it was yesterday. Already a huge Georgetown fan, I was crushed.
I was lucky enough to be attending the university during the Allen Iverson years when they had some great teams.
Lineup guess:
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Tex 1B
ARod DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Melky CF
Ransom 3B
Wait till they come to OUR house AGAIN
July 21st, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Cano has been fantastic defensively this season.
In reality, there were three incredible plas yesterday, Cano’s deke, Tex’s throw/Molina’s tag, and Molina’s throw/Coke’s tag. Robbie’s play ws right there with those two.
====
But you see, Wait, that is not according to the Book on Cano.
The Book on Cano: he’s “stupid” and “lazy” and has tons of natural, instinctive talent, but “no baseball IQ.”
As such, Cano can reflexively push his stick out and knock the ball into left field, or drive a pitch into center, or even tag the Upper Deck in right once in a while. He can also reflexively put up his glove without any effort, because he is “incapable” of “effort”.
Deking the runner requires thinking, and a BB IQ. Since Cano “has none”, it is impossible to credit him for something he could not possibly have conceived.
I’m listening a little to Francesa – why I don’t know – but they’re talking about the A’s/Twins play at the plate last night. Hypothesis: the umpires have always been this bad, television replay has gotten better and more ubiquitous.
If we win every single game for the rest of the year by one run I won’t complain.
All these walkoffs are just crazy…Yankees classics can’t keep up with the demand…
Um – that’s MY hypothesis, not Mike’s or anyone else’s that I’ve heard.
bodhisattva,
that sounds like the morons in my section. we have season tickets and everybody in our section is drinking the “joba to the pen koolaid”, smoking a bit of the “andy pettitte is a washed up bum”, and finishing that off with a nice plate of “the yankees are better without a-rod so let’s boo him if he gets out”
I can’t even make comments anymore. The best had to be the first game of the season i went to. This father had his son with him sitting behind me. And the kid was asking his dad questions about the stadium. And his father said and i kid you not “you know, the first guy to hit a home run in this stadium was a catcher (posada). And babe ruth was the first guy to ever hit a home run in the old yankee stadium and he was a catcher too!”
….I thought he was kidding, was waiting for him to tell his son he was just joking, but then went on to say that Babe Ruth was the greatest catcher in Yankees history. I almost choked to death on my beer
Run differential is meaningless. Take out the 2 clunkers against Cleveland in April and the Yankees are ahead of the Sox and Rays.
Our House -
It’s good though – Yankees’ Classics was getting very, very stale!
But what they really need are some new playoff classics, no? (shh.)
bodhi-Explanation that would jive with Cano’s obvious lack of baseball IQ.
He wasn’t deking the runner out but actually believd that the ball went foul!
Huh? Huh?
Doreen-Possible, but I actually agree with Francessa. Several games this year have been stolen because of bad calls.
hey Miggs – when did you graduate GU, i was there, too…
pat,
You’re absolutely right about the defense. We played our best baseball during the errorless streak. Hopefully, the defense can get back to playing that kind of baseball.
Laura,
What’s been pounded into our heads for years? Pitching wins championships. Can’t ask much more than what the pitching has given us the last few days. Both Joba and Andy gave us more than we could’ve hoped for. That’s worth celebrating.
Doreen-I can’t believe that the Aaron Boone HR game is shown almost, like never. Best single game in Yankees history IMO.
But the Yanks have played a TON of great games this year. That gae vs. the Mets was one of my favorite reg. season wins of all time.
Ramey-I just cracked up when reading your post…poor kid…
Why do Met fans think Johan is better than Halladay?
gae is game.
– Trost was asked about a possible trade for Roy Halladay, and he indicated it would be too risky, citing the infamous Herschel Walker deal as a precedent. In 1989, the Dallas Cowboys traded Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for a raft of players and draft picks that formed the foundation of a Cowboys dynasty.
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/
Johan is probably the third best pitcher in baseball behind Halladay and Linececum, and this year Greinke too.
If the Yankees win 2/3 or better of each series the rest of the way they will win the division. I also expect the Yanks & Boston to add an arm and maybe even another stick. Tampa is taxed on $$ and attendance is down and the economy here is dismal. But they may get a short term rental type arm, but they have depth. If they make it to the playoffs, Price goes to the bullpen and he will make them even better.
I believe Boston is the team most at risk of the 3. Smoltz, Penny & Wakefield are all likely to get worse rather than better the 2nd half. Ortiz is not ortiz any more. No ManRam. Bay is coming back to earth. Lowell is a an unknown due to injury. SS is still a question mark IMO. Varitek is a weak spot. Ellsbury is not that good. And their bullpen is being exposed due to overuse and in the heat of the Summer that could be a killer in and of itself.
Life cannot be calculated with simple equations. Baseball is not predicted by math.
Don La Greca just had the Mets guy on 1050 (Rich Cutino) and he doesn’t think there is anything to the Jays/Mets offer – basically for the reasons we’ve discussed here. He mentioned that the first thing the Jays have been asking for are for teams to take on Wells/Rios, so then why would the Jays not even mention them to the Mets? Then, of course, there’s the fact that that package is just not enough to get it done for Halladay……Lastly, he thinks it could be a ploy on the part of the Jays to get the Phillies to panic
“I was lucky enough to be attending the university during the Allen Iverson years when they had some great teams.”
Final four was in Richmond one year while AI was at Georgetown…I got to skip school to go watch and it was well worth it!
Francesa on the TEX to Molina play..”Uuuuugggghhhhh..he looked safe, Eddie..get me a diet coke..he looked safe at home..he really did. Let me check the video uuuggghh lets see, he was SAFE..Yankees got lucky…wait…………………………………………………………………..he might have been out”
Ramey,
I have basically been driven out of my regular section. A group of tools sit up there and torture anyone with an away cap – and I mean a guy with a Pirates hat and his elderly grandma during a Yankees – Phillies game.
They also derisively “cheer” for “A-Roid.”
I have upgraded nearly every game, selling my seasons on Stub Hub and buying seats in Terrace, or upgrading on line at the Stadium.
But there is no refuge from these people – those who have the least to say are always those who are talking over everyone.
Our House -
Yes, I agree with that part of it. What I’m saying is, perhaps this has been going on far longer that we’ve thought, but with endless scrutiny of replay during the games, after the games, on sports shows, etc., that the baseball loving public is more aware of how bad the umpires are.
And you can’t go back in time to test my theory, because they didn’t use replay as much as they do now and camera angles weren’t nearly as good or as plentiful, not to mention stop-action and slo-mo. I know all the technology isn’t brand-spanking new, but the cameras focus EVERYWHERE now and are able to get in closer and closer with better clarity.
Either that or umpires just don’t care anymore.
“Brandon,
Word is the offer Heyman is talking about is just a bogus rumor.”
Patrick, I just can’t see Heyman being duped like that, he broke the Arod, CC, Teix and Manny news. This isn’t a guy that gets fooled easily. Keith Law use to work for the Jays, awhile ago Rich Cutino said there is truth to this rumor, Fatcessa has no real good source other than Heyman. If that was the deal & Omar turned it down something is really screwy.
These stats aren’t that telling. Blowout games can influence these very easily. Plus, a good freakin team wins close games. Especially with a good bullpen and clutch hitting, two things the Yanks have done this season.
Rich James-He was out.
Doreen-I think your second suggestion is unfortunately probably right. After that dumb comment to Jeter I’ll believe anything about these Umps.
Does anyone know what de Caster is hitting at scranton?
Why would anyone ask Lon Trost about trades? Is he the GM? Is he the owner?
miggs-
I got your guess. Its the same as the one Patrick the Prospect Hugger submitted last night
Brandon-Heyman is a fool. He lost all cerdibility to me when he compared Cervelli to Motero and said they were both the same “rank” of prospect (Cervelli was as good a prospect as Montero).
Um, wrong?
*Rich Cutino said there is no truth to this rumor*
But he works for the Mets so……..
I couldn’t be an umpire. I would be devastated if I caused a team a game like last night’s blown call did.
And I would be embarrassed if I called the phantom force out of Hinske at second.
Wait, when it comes to trades, he’s usually spot on. I’m not talking about rating players, he’s the village idiot when it comes to that.
bodhisattva,
I agree entirely. its always that way it seems like. I’m at least happy that there’s 1 guy in my section, who absolutely just loves the game of baseball. I kid you not he’s at least 80 years old and he’s been to every game i’ve been at this year and he sits 3 rows in front of me and he always has a glove on (which is just hysterical to see) and is patting the glove for the full 9 innings, screaming at every pitch and just has a pure joy for being there.
and i was thoroughly impressed that the last game i went to a line drive came into our section (i’m in the main outfield down the right field line, so if a ball comes to our section, its gonna hurt) and he leapt up like he was my age and snared it without missing a beat. it was insane
About 5 credentialed people have debunked that mets/jays rumor.
If JP wants to waste time chasing non-contenders, he’s going to be scrambling next week. But I don’t think he approached the mets, not with that proposal.
“I’m not talking about rating players, he’s the village idiot when it comes to that.”
This also made me laugh.
Point taken.
First Gloria Estefan and now Marc Anthony buying into Miami Dolphins ownership.
That should give them options on who can sing the National Anthem at Land Shark Stadium.
*cost a team a game
A friend of Halladay says he’s checked out.
Vacancies at the Halladay Inn.
“*Rich Cutino said there is no truth to this rumor*
But he works for the Mets so……..”
Bingo.
m, when Jon and Fatcessa speak there is going to be some explaining to do.
Another thing about teams underperforming their pythag: it isn’t all bad luck. A lot of times, a team with a bad bullpen will have a worse record than their run differential would suggest. The Rays fit that description.
the mets barely have enough players to offer for halladay. their farm teams are terrible with a depleted minor league system that will take years to fix.
Didn’t Olney say that the Jays are NOT asking a team to take on Rios/Wells because they don’t want to dilute the package they get back for Doc?
As usual…. 10 different people saying 10 different things and smokescreens galore.
Are you serious? Cervelli Pena Gardner for Halldady.
“*cost a team a game
A friend of Halladay says he’s checked out.
Vacancies at the Halladay Inn. ”
Source ?
As some have said, the Pythag record isn’t very useful as a result of Wang, Claggett, A-Rod’s absence, etc.
“m, when Jon and Fatcessa speak there is going to be some explaining to do.”
Hopefully they will be explaining how they managed to get their jobs with minimal intelligence…I have the latter, now I just need a high paying sports-related job
Actually, on balance the umpires probably do a very good job. We are more aware of their mistakes now though. And MLB is going to have to address that. I’m sure no umpire is happy with that missed call last night. Even though they have to make the call in real time at real speed, it was badly missed. And what I notice is the umpires don’t always seem to be in the right position to make a good call – that’s the real problem. So, perhaps that is something that can be addressed – they’re not putting themselves in the position to make their best call. It’s probably tougher than we realize – being in the best position to make the right call AND not getting in the way of the play itself.
Also, I believe they need to use the technology as an assistant. I think plays at the plate are equally as important as HR calls, and as easy to back-track if the wrong call is made.
A Blue Jays official involved in the Roy Halladay discussions told The Post that both New York teams are not serious pursuers of the ace right-hander.
The official confirmed what several Yankee executives already had told the Post: That since an initial phone conversation about two weeks ago between Brian Cashman and his Blue Jays counterpart J.P. Ricciardi to let the Yankees New York Yankees know that Halladay is available there have been no further discussions. Yankees executives have told the Post that the finances in adding Halladay don’t work, especially if it means giving up the best of their farm system, also, which is what keeping Halladay in the AL East would necessitate.
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports.....still.html
I had a dream/premonition that the Yanks will get a back rotation guy in a 3 team trade.
Uncle, please tell me you premonition did not include names like John Sanchez or Ian Snell…
JJ-Yeah that means nothing.
New thread.
Yeah… I’m sure the prospect of the Mets offering the Jays studs like Parrnell, Niese, and Martinez (Pavano of position players) is making the Phillies shake in their boots….
The Red Sox are batting just .227 in July. OUCH!
I love that they’re sorely missing a big bat in their lineup (Bay has gone down the toilet since May) and they might have to trade Buchholz and Bard to get one.
All because they didn’t get Teixeira, who may very well be the Yankees’ MVP.
Uncle E
Did you at least see what color the uniforms were?
A 10 run cap limit is completely arbitrary. Why not make it a 7 or 8 run cap. As soon as you introduce a value that is made up the true statistical value diminishes. Golfers use the method of taking a median score, a known statisitcal evaluator. Drop the top 10% worst and best scores against and runs scored then do the calculations with those figures. (It’s a dummied down version of a true median but would suffice) That will give you the best data.
Ramey,
The Oldtimers are the ones who really should be doing the talking, and we should be doing the listening – they have seen it all and felt it all when it comes to our Yanks.
Sounds like you’ve got a real treasure in your section – makes up for the tools.
Baseball lets us all live an ageless, eternal summer, God bless the sport.
Nothing like a day at the ballpark!
Brandon,
I’m not saying that Heyman lied. But a lot of us thought it was bogus the second we heard it.
Heyman has been contradicting himself ever since JP said he was open to trading Doc.
But, a story this huge is going to get a lot of follow-up. Every journalist on JP’s “okay, put them through” list is going to call to verify. So that’s all we have to go on.
So, even if JP is covering his you know what, it doesn’t make sense at all. The mets have nothing to offer. Nothing. They’re going nowhere. Nowhere. There are 8 teams ahead of them in the WC race. They’re in 4th place in the division, 9 games back.
“If we can’t feel good about the team now, what are we supposed to feel?”
with much of the dead wood cleared out , i think 205 million has been a decent general manager.
in other words, 205 million is the GM.
i would feel better about the yankees if there were more thought behind the blunt force of the 205 million.
…but if they are going to spend it, it’s way better to be in first than not.
but to admire yankee cutting edge management ?
where?
i admire the ability to get $205 million i guess.
Rishi
Class of ‘99 Business School.
You?
Doreen
July 21st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Actually, on balance the umpires probably do a very good job. We are more aware of their mistakes now though. And MLB is going to have to address that.
Doreen we’ve had multiple camera angles and replays for years now. I think they are too comfortable.
new thread
new thread
Cano’s defensive nonchalance
===============
What BS, he’s so smooth out there it must seem like that to the ignorant.
At the plate is a whole other story though…
The Yankees also have an ally in the Rays. Boston doesn’t match up well with them for over 3 years now. Bad blood between them and the Rays team speed drives the Boston pitchers bananas.
“Uncle, please tell me you premonition did not include names like John Sanchez or Ian Snell…”
Hope it does.
m, here’s the thing why would he make up such a lie like that
I don’t buy the “luck” concept. I think a lot more of the difference between expected pythagorean record and actual record is attributable to managerial capability. There’s a reason that Torre’s teams beat their pythagorean expected record 10 times in his 12 years: he managed games well (and then came the ‘04 ALCS). Most of those ten “lucky” years were more than two games better than expectations. You don’t get a net result of “lucky” 10 times in 12 years by mere chance.
His best year was (ironically) 2004, when that team somehow won 101 games with Brown (10-6, 4.09), Mooooooose (12-9, 4.59), Vazquez (14-10, 4.91) and Leiber (14-8, 4.33) as its top four in the rotation. The Yanks’ expected record was 89-73.
And the Yanks beating expectations is nothing new this year (+3), they did it last year too (+2). Surprisingly, one ridiculous result will not affect that record very much. Take away the 22-4 whupping from the Indians and the Yanks’ expected record in their other 91 games is 53-38.
Run differential doesn’t mean anything. The standings are determined by wins and losses. You could beat up on awful teams in games that were decided in the 3rd inning and run up your run differential. Lose close games to good teams, keep your run differential number at a good clip. There’s a reason why that tool is called a “theory”. It doesn’t mean a damn thing. I don’t think the Yankees have been “lucky” this year. They deserved to win every game they have except for the missed pop up by Castillo. If anything, they should have a few more wins, because the Yankees get more obviously blown calls against them than any team. Play the games and try to win them. Obviously the Rays are good, you don’t need some silly, useless tool to tell you that. What a joke.
The O’s announcers are putting me to sleep already. *sigh*