The Bronx home run report
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jul 23, 2009 
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Hal Steinbrenner said the other day that he wanted to wait until after the season to decide whether Yankee Stadium needed any adjustments because of all the home runs.
That makes sense, of course. But, just for kicks, here is some basic data:
Home runs in 2008: 160 (1.98 per game).
Home runs in 2009: 156 (3.25 per game).
The new Stadium is on a pace that would produce 263 home runs. Yikes. The record is 303 at Coors Field in 1999. The Yankees were ahead of that pace earlier this season, but that has fallen of.
In terms of doubles, the old Stadium produced an average of 3.55 last season and is at 3.37 this season. So not a big change. But when it comes to home runs, something has changed.
it sure is entertaining
I don’t have a problem with it.
The Yankees have a team built to hit home runs and a park conducive to the way they hit.
I don’t mind if the other team hits home runs, long as the Yankees hit more and with more men on base!
I still want to see what effect if any the taking down of the Old Stadium has on this. What happens if you move the fences out and when they take down the stadium it all changes again. Does it not make more sense to wait until the STadium is down and then see what happens?
The team is also overall hitting a lot better and with a lot more power in general than last year. This team wouldve hit more homers in the old yankee stadium last year than last years team did anyway
Interesting stuff is tweetland today from Ben Badler regarding the Yankees system. He singled out someone I am not familair with at all by the name of Arodys Vizcaino. Said “Best pitching prospect in #Yankees system, for me”
Also made the following point
#Yankees spent ~$20 million on the draft the last 3 yrs, but their international prospects are the best part of that system
With all the talk about bad farm systems and such it is interesting to see Ben’s take on this.
Arodys Vizcaino leads the SI league in strike outs.
The Yanks have been good at the IFA thing for a while…
I feel like I was lied to by the organization in that they insisted for so long that the dimensions were the same.
I hope the rain holds for tonight’s game. If not, It’ll be the second time it’s rained out. My tickets are getting soggy…
Yeah, the yankee farm system is pretty strong, it’s good to see. We really take for granted the guys like Ramiro Pena and Cervelli who just get called up and produce when a star goes down. The mets don’t have that luxury, and they are out of their minds if they want to be buyers this season…
where can I find the chart of YS showing where all of the HRs landed. I know it’s out there because people have referenced it here before.
With the info Pete gave, I imagine the differenct in HRs thanks to the new dimensions is closer to the drop-off in doubles than it is the increase over HRs per game vs last year. In other words, the dimensions are a small part of what’s caused the difference with the high fire power of the offense being the larger part.
The mets don’t have that luxury, and they are out of their minds if they want to be buyers this season…
=================
Sell off the core.
PLEASE!
I would guess if tonight is rained out that there is doubleheader some point over the next 3 days
let the mets be buyers and deplete the farm even more
I hope it’s not rained out, I have tickets!
“The mets don’t have that luxury, and they are out of their minds if they want to be buyers this season…
=================
Sell off the core.
PLEASE!”
But…but…I thought that’s where Halladay was going!
Gotta wait until the Old Stadium is torn down before making any changes. The new place is not in it’s final condition, and for all anyone knows the place could turn into Petco if they make any drastic changes before the old building is gone.
Sure, it could make it worse, but you have to wait until the place is in the condition it’ll be in for the next hundred years before doing anything major.
And besides, the homers are fun.
PA – You mentioned it has “fallen off” a bit. Maybe that is the result of better pitching.
Could you possible run a month-by-month HRs per game?
Thanks.
Why do people compare the HR total from this year to just last year. Things vary every year that you need to compare it to the highest total from the old YS. If that happens to be last year than ok but I doubt it.
This rain needs to stay away we are TOO hot right now
“where can I find the chart of YS showing where all of the HRs landed. I know it’s out there because people have referenced it here before.”
—————–
Hokiehill,
did you find it? If Pete or anybody else can share that, I’d find it interesting to see if there are any trends.
“Why do people compare the HR total from this year to just last year. Things vary every year”
———-
Joe R,
agreed and that’s why you wait at least a full season before doing any major analysis on it.
but if the #s are sky high compared to recent history, it’s worth investigating.
40 homers in last 16 games, not as bad as beginning of season. Does seem like more balls are dying in front of that left wall than they did earlier in the season.
Yanks should get Halladay (despite what francesa’s opinion) but they should not give up Hughes or Joba. With the talent on the farm, it can be done.
Boston Dave, I can’t seem to come up with it…I know it’s out there somewhere. I think there’s one that shows the old stadium outline inside the new one and you can see which HRs would not have been over the wall in the old stadium…
@hokiehill
http://hittrackeronline.com/de.....e=ballpark
By my count, 15 Home Runs have fallen in the area where the wall used to be curved, but is now straight. Maybe another 5-10 are in the grey area where the wall was, but it is inconclusive if they would have gone out or not.
Obviously this is a lunching pad, and not just luck/bad pitching.
Jerkface
July 23rd, 2009 at 11:39 am
Arodys Vizcaino leads the SI league in strike outs.
NY Penn League, actually. Have you gone to see him?
I keep meaning to, but something always comes up when he’s pitching, it seems. I’d better get there soon, because he’s surely getting promoted shortly.
Rarleo is right. The Yankees have a much better hitting team this year: (1) Mark Texeira, (2) A-Rod having a great year, (3) Posada healthy, (4) Cano back to his old self.
Pete, what’s the ratio of homeruns hit on the home last year to one’s hit at Yankee Stadium? This year? I’m not saying the new park isn’t hitter-friendly. But the Yankee lineup is probably making it look dispropotionately so.
Agreed – this comparison is silly and means absolutely nothing. Let’s see league wide HR per game comparisons – over maybe a ten year stretch and then compare that to Yankee Stadium numbers over the same time period – and then maybe you have the beginnings of a shred of flimsy evidence. What you have posted here is just trolling nonsense.
As the saying goes… “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
weather.com predicts a 40% chance of precip from 7pm to midnight.
The decrease in homers of late is due to better pitching from the Yankees and their opponents. Let’s face it, in April, the Yankee pitching was awful.
Frank from Chatham:
One of NJ’s best restaurants: A Taste of Asia.
That forecast annoys me. We don’t need Joba warming up twice. It seems he runs into that situation a lot.
I think it’s impossible for the walls to be moved back. The stands go right up to the wall (remember the gap between fans and fence at County Stadium), plus the right field second deck begins about five rows deep. I think they should consider raising the fence, and if possible, look into curving the left field and right field corners like they were at the old stadium. This would prevent a lot of the popup home runs that we’re seeing, and the stadium would be like OYS.
By my count, 15 Home Runs have fallen in the area where the wall used to be curved, but is now straight. Maybe another 5-10 are in the grey area where the wall was, but it is inconclusive if they would have gone out or not.
Obviously this is a lunching pad, and not just luck/bad pitching.
–
An extra 15 or so HRs does not turn this into a launching pad.
I’m pretty sure tonight is CC, right
When the Yankees have an opening for pitchers, those with flyball tendencies need not apply.
I think they’ll do something to fix it in the offseason.
today is the only day i go with the opposition played baseball with vin mazzarro in when i was a in town baseball and a little in hs aswesome pitcher and he is from bergen county but tommorrow oakland must lose
My girlfriend gave me a signed ball by Nick Swisher yesterday. Love it!
Richie July 23rd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
When the Yankees have an opening for pitchers, those with flyball tendencies need not apply.
I think they’ll do something to fix it in the offseason.
=================
Like get Wang back on track???
Yank’s odds of winning the Div: 45%; odds of winning the WC: 26.7%; odds of making the PO: 71.7%
http://www.coolstandings.com/b.....gs.asp?i=1
late-July means it’s not too early to look ahead and start to project.
one thing that jumped out at me: TB has 27 games left combined against BAL/TOR/KC. that’s a lot of games vs teams that won’t be in the hunt.
tons of great info on that site.
“By my count, 15 Home Runs have fallen in the area where the wall used to be curved, but is now straight. Maybe another 5-10 are in the grey area where the wall was, but it is inconclusive if they would have gone out or not.
Obviously this is a lunching pad, and not just luck/bad pitching.
–
An extra 15 or so HRs does not turn this into a launching pad.”
15 doesn’t but what’s the number at the end of the year? If there are 30 at the end of the year then there was an impact I would say…regardless, I don’t get why it’s such a big deal…if the Yankees had done it on purpose then there would be no media outrage…It’s just a chance to poke at the Yankees. It’s not like it’s an advantage or disadvantage…both teams playing in the stadium get to play with equal dimmensions.
The decrease in homers of late is due to better pitching from the Yankees and their opponents. Let’s face it, in April, the Yankee pitching was awful.
—————————————————-
The higher humidity (heavy air) in July & August makes fly balls die. As long as the temperature is not over 90 degrees, it is probably harder to hit home runs when the humidity is up.
One other factor is that April and May are generally windier months than June, July and August so there aren’t as many wind blown home runs now.
Having Rivera gives us a huge edge, because we are destroying teams in the late innings with our tiny park while no one can touch Rivera. I feel a little bit like the Red Sox with their softball field.
Part of the increase has to do with the fact that we have Mark Teixeira playing for us now. And Hideki Matsui is hitting more out.
Not THAT many of them have been “NYS HRs.” Most of them are pretty legitimate homeruns. You’d expect a decent increase of about 30 or 40 this year from the improvements in the roster in general. A healthy Damon. More power for Cano. Melky hitting a few more out than last year. Teix replacing Abreu. etc etc.
Did any body in MLB consider it could have something to do with the baseballs this year? I think titelist is suppling the balls
A.J.
CC
Joba
against
Shields
Kazmir
Garza
in Tampa next wk. The Yanks have the big guns going, s/b a killer series.
A couple of players have said the ball flys much more during day games. From the naked eye, it appears that’s true. I wonder what the avg HR per day game is compared to night game.
edit: flies
xvz both teams have the big guns going. Those are 3 great pitching match-ups. As a fan it is hard not to get ahead of yourself and look forward to that series. Regardless of how they do this weekend all the talk before those 3 games will be about how the Yankees can’t beat any good teams. I hope they are sick of hearing about that by now and turn that trend around.
Russell NY
July 23rd, 2009 at 12:06 pm
My girlfriend gave me a signed ball by Nick Swisher yesterday. Love it!
***
That is a girl you marry!
The Yanks rotation is set up great for the next 2 weeks. A rainout tonight or this weekend will throw everything off.
Russell:
You know when I went and said “wow we are so lucky to have Rivera?”
The other night, when Oakland came back from down ten runs against Minnesota.
I kept thinking that if it ever got that close in the ninth inning, the Yankees would simply pitch Rivera and that would be that.
We’ve all been blessed to watch him pitch.
The Yanks have four games to play against Oakland before they worry about the Rays.
HR rate is up, dbl rate is the same. Maybe some Home Runs are would-be fly outs in the old stadium, but maybe some Home runs are an indicator of more hard hit balls than last year
Giuseppe Franco July 23rd, 2009 at 12:19 pm
The Yanks have four games to play against Oakland before they worry about the Rays.
—————–
blah. blah. blah.
“We’ve all been blessed to watch him pitch.”
Here, here.
Rebecca,
Minnesota does have Joe Nathan. I don’t equate him with Mariano, but he is maybe the second best closer in baseball. But, he didn’t even pitch in that game, maybe he was going to have the day off no matter what because of previous use. Imagine what it would be like watching the Yanks giving back a lead like that, all the while knowing that Rivera is not pitching, no matter what.
im way past halladay. no way i give up what they are looking for, nor do i take well’s contract, so its a non-starter to me.
i think the days of this kind of payroll trade are coming to an end. to take on a huge contract while giving up your future cost-controlled production doesnt make any sense. kudos for cash for coming to this realization.
i think the jay’s will end up either keeping doc or moving him for less than they had hoped to an n.l. team. no way will they take a lesser package from a division team, but they may be desparate enough financially that they have to deal him no matter what.
just curious how many lords out there have started your journey to conquer the world and build you empire… how very distracting that is…
Dingers are cool. Doesn’t seem to be hurting the Yankees.
xyz July 23rd, 2009 at 12:23
blah. blah. blah.
————–
Do you have a problem with taking these games one at a time?
That’s what the players are doing.
Beat up on the teams you’re supposed to beat and play .500 ball against the really good teams.
That’s usually the formula for playoff teams.
new football post
I’d like to know how this year compairs to say the top 5 home runs years from the old stadium?
The Yankees, Sox, and Rays are vary evenly matched at this point. If any of the teams have another injury to a big piece, the race will change.
The Yankees will need another starter at some point. Will it be Wang coming back, Ace, or an outsider is the question…
We didnt have Tex, Matsui, or Posada last year. That ought to add a few homers, no? I’m not saying that accounts for all of it. But its gotta be a factor in any analysis.
didn’t nyy jack 240 hr in 04 or 05
@jerface + hokiehill
hah, i had a /sarcasm tag at the end there, looks like it was stripped from my post.
i don’t believe it is a launching pad. i believe in the wake of the steroid era, mlb has gone back to the juiced ball. homeruns are up all over the league, not just in Yankee stadium. Sure it might be up more here, but we also have an amazing lineup capable of crushing baseballs. i’m sure that the now uniformly humidified baseballs have some effect ont his as well. Combine that with a few weeks of bad pitching, and we end up with a supposed “launching pad”.
Something tells me that the Tigers and the Orioles aren’t complaining about easy fly ball home runs right now
I really don’t care if the Yankees RF fence is 140 feet from home plate because it doesn’t matter. I mean all this talk about HR’s at Yankee stadium is crazy. Do we spend hours complaining about a popup hit the green monster? Or how skewed the Red Sox field is that a Pedroria can win an MVP title and can only hit a ball 250 feet.
The field is what it is. Pitchers adjust & so do hitters. If Dimagio was lefthanded he would have hit 40 homeruns every year and batted over .400. He would have been unstoppable in Fenway with the Green Monster. Same with Ted Williams in Yankee Stadium or making him a right handed hitter.
This idle chatter about ball parks is Red Sox Nation of saying something that is obvious in their own park (Fenway) is a problem in Yankee Universe. There is no such thing as a cheap HR or hit or out. They all count the same!
Has anyone broken down the number of HRs by Yankees versus the number by opposing teams? It might not be fair to assume that the whole reason for the larger number is the Stadium….
The Yanks rotation is set up great for the next 2 weeks. A rainout tonight or this weekend will throw everything off.
—————————————————
If we get a rainout sometime, teh Yankees should skip Joba in the rotation. He’s the one on an inning limit and it would allow him to pitch deeper into September.
It’s obvious that more homeruns are being hit this year than last year and the cause is the stadium. The right field wall goes straight from the corner to the 385 sign. That used to be curved thus taking away a lot of the cheapies that are going into the first couple rows in that area. They need to fix this after the season because as is it’s a joke around the league.
Yankees: 48 games home, 46 Away.
87 HRs Home, 53 Away
69 HRs given up Home, 49 Away
I would say that is significant, but who cares? You play with what you’ve got.
“If we get a rainout sometime, teh Yankees should skip Joba in the rotation. He’s the one on an inning limit and it would allow him to pitch deeper into September.”
I get the innings limit, but he is coming off one of his best outings of the year…I’d want to keep that fire burning if possible…getting skipped likely would not accomplish that.
If anyone gets skipped it should be Pettitte. He’s getting old and it’s doubtful that his arm is 100% healthy which has been the case for several years now. He needs all the rest he can get.
The somewhat dubious dimensions of rightfield coupled with the apparent wind tunnel dampens the hallowed memories of the Stadium and the Yankees. It goes far beyond the famed short-porch which was reportedly tailored for the Babe. Even Suzyn W. (Ma Yankee,) at one point referred to it as Coors Field East.
I would not expect Hal or any member of management to address the issue during the season, but I would be surprised if it is not dealt with post-October.
jpb1973:
Contrary to what you (and many other fans) believe, humid air is NOT “heavier” than dry air, and does not make fly balls die. As a meteorologist, I can categorically state that humid air is, in fact, lighter (i.e., less dense) than dry air at the same temperature. Therefore, one would expect balls to fly farther as the hot, humid summer weather takes over. This is a fact of physics, that I will be glad to explain if anyone asks.
I’m not surprised that the number of doubles in the NYS is down (from 3.55 to 3.38 per game) as compared to the old stadium. The explanation is obvious. Some of those balls that are now clearing the right field fence would have been doubles in the old ball park. The drop in doubles coincides nicely with the rise in home runs at the new ball park.
Here’s some info to chew on…
These are all of the teams in the majors with a +/- 5 variance in home runs.
TEAM – HOME/ROAD – VAR
nyy – 87/53 – +34
tor – 62/45 – +17
bal – 55/40 – +15
tex – 77/63 – +14
min – 59/45 – +14
chw – 62/49 – +13
fla – 51/40 – +11
hou – 45/34 – +11
ari – 52/42 – +10
oak – 43/35 – +8
bos – 59/52 – +7
sf – 35/28 – +7
kc – 42/36 – +6
laa – 50/45 – +5
sd – 39/44 – -5
tb – 56/62 – -6
cle – 46/55 – -9
was – 36/47 – -11
stl – 42/57 – -15
i tried looking at the home/road splits, thinking the Yankees are a team that just hits a lot of home runs in general. every way i try to slice it points to the stadium giving being the reason…
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/t.....order/true
i know the wall isn’t as high and is straight instead of curved like it used to be (where that manual scoreboard is), but i don’t think those 2 things come into play as much as wind.
everything seems to be tailing to the right. balls hit to left-center are going more towards center.
i don’t think the old stadium being there has anything to do with it. i just think it’s the shape, with the higher teirs being further away from the field. kind of like a soup bowl vs a cereal bowl. just thinking about that makes sense that there would be more currents. and i think the only way that could be addressed is possibly closing off some of the open parts of the stadium, unfortunately.
do some colored smoke tests in the off-season. or, just deal with it.
My seats are in the 2nd to last row up in the grandstand directly behind plate. If you sit up there it is easy to see why the ball is flying out. The wind blows like crazy. There were times it would almost blow your hat off. I would imagine with the open air levels – esp at the upper/grandstand concourse that balls hit in the air get caught in that ‘jet stream’.
Maybe the team is just better. Can we get some away stat comparisons to see how homers compare to last season when the Yankees are away?
mark, click the link i posted.
I think a big part of it is that the Yankees are just a better team. They are on pace to score about 160 more runs this year than they did last year. That accounts for about 40 homers right there. However, I do think that should move the fence back down the left and right field for next and give it more curve like the old stadium has.
Anyone know the number of home runs per year (not just last year) at the old stadium? This year’s team does appear to be a better hitting team than last year’s, so just comparing to last year seems to miss something. And how about home runs by the visiting team, this year compared to previous years? What about the % of home runs just over the RF fence?
I’m sure something about the design of the new stadium is contributing to more home runs. The straight fence and possibly lower fences are suspects. But those factors would influence mostly short home runs. And most of the HRs I’ve seen have looked pretty honest. As for the wind, I can see it affecting some high fly balls in a significant way, but not the ones that look like no-doubters off the bat. And again, most of the HRs I’ve seen have not been high fly balls that look like they were pushed just past the fence.
Would be interesting to see more of the data. I’m sure the Yankees will be looking at everything, before they start knocking down walls or putting up screens.
Excellent blog experience here; however, a month-by-month HR rate would begin to add depth to our understanding of YS as a launching pad…or not. Few Yankees have been on a HR binge lately…Jeter, Damon, Tex, Posada, Swisher, and Cano are team leaders along w/ A-Rod, of course. Cano and Posada hit HRs in O’s series but were first HRs hit by them anywhere for quite a while.
As recently as 2005, Yankee Stadium, gave up the most homeruns based on park factors, which account for lineup strength of the home team as it compares stats for home and away:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/p.....t/HRFactor
1/2 of year of data is nothing. Even one or two years may not be enough to say if the new Yankee Stadium is that different. Check out the each year on ESPN site there is a lot of variance for most of the stadiums.
The Yankees have been dominant at home lately. If that continues and they make the playoffs and do well, there isn’t any reason to change that much about the park. I would make the right and left field fences a little higher, a few feet, and that’s it. The Yanks have a lot of strikeout pitchers and power hitters. The ballpark is good for our team.
KO says make the fences higher; I don’t think the fans in the first few rows would like that ! Gonna raise all the seats too ?
I say wait until next season and see how the homers go !
The new field is set in the same direction as old and right next door ! Unless the wind is blowing out, fugetaboutit!!!
There is no “jet stream” anywhere in park !!!