All about Aroldis
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Aug 09, 2009 
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Former Yankees beat writer Jorge Arangure Jr. filed this comprehensive report with ESPN.com on Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.
There’s a story and a video. The Yankees and many other teams will be interested in Chapman once he becomes available as a free agent. It’s certain how long that process will take. But because Chapman has a passport, it will be quicker than other defectors.
While it’s fun to dream about a pitcher suddenly showing up with a 100-mph fastball and dominating, keep in mind that the same things were being said about Jose Contreras and he’s just another guy at this point. There’s a lot more to being a great pitcher in the majors than having a good arm.
Yeah, let someone else take the contract and risk.
Would be awesome if we could get him. That would give us a LOT of flexibility the next few years.
I’m kind of leery of this guy, but we’ll see what the Yankees will do in regard to acquiring him.
No question about it Pete. However, he has a helluva skill set to start with, that’s for sure.
He’s also only 21. If it took 3 years to develop him, how many teams would kill to have a 24 lefty with his arsonal?
He’s a stud and he’s a guy you take the big money risk to sign, IMO.
Repost….
Hey all.
Congrats.
All I can say is that I am lucky to have a great wife and a Golden Retriever as therapists…
The only other consolation is knowing that regulars here who are baseball fans as well as Yankee fans are feeling good today.
Happy Sunday.
-dennis
I don’t care either way. I love this team!
SJ:
When I read that story, I got the impression that Chapman is a lot more interested in getting rich and getting laid than he is being great. I have no idea on the guy, I’ve never watched him or met him. But the track record on Cubans is not great. The goal for them, I’ve had people tell me, is to get out and get paid. Once that happens, everything else is secondary.
I also think the days of teams wildly spending on international free agents is coming to and end. There’s a lot more care being taken these days. Maybe the Yankees get him, I have no idea. But some fans are under the idea he’ll be in the rotation next spring and that’s crazy talk.
“I don’t care either way. I love this team!”
Me too, m! They seem to love themselves as well.
“When I read that story, I got the impression that Chapman is a lot more interested in getting rich and getting laid than he is being great.”
Sounds like every other man I know.
I kid, I kid.
I’d proceed cautiously with Chapman.
He might have the best raw stuff in the world, but that guarantees nothing–there’s so much else that goes into it.
I’m not saying the Yankees shouldn’t sign him if the opportunity arises; just that they shouldn’t go Igawa-crazy on a guy that’s never thrown a Major League game…
Pete, isnt it a little bit too early to predict whether Chapman will be a bust?
From the Arangure Jr. article:
“Chapman often eats two steaks at a time for dinner. He plays video games until the early hours of the morning. He sleeps each day past noon. He enjoys going to discos. He likes designer jeans and big clunky watches that conspicuously sit on his wrist like a wall clock.”
So in other words he’s already assimilated to US culture.
Is he going for a part on “Entourage” or as a pro athlete?
“Chapman often eats two steaks at a time for dinner. He plays video games until the early hours of the morning. He sleeps each day past noon.”
sounds like me, and a true American.
Even though I wouldn’t mind if they signed him,he still would be a big risk. For all we know he could blow out his arm,or something. It would be nice,like I have said,but it would be a risk,no doubt.
Wow. Chapman already sounds like an NBA rookie.
How’s his work ethic?
“But the track record on Cubans is not great. The goal for them, I’ve had people tell me, is to get out and get paid. Once that happens, everything else is secondary.”
Watch out Pete
The resident Prima Donna is going to rile at you for being so nasty using the heritage of the player(s)
He would like you to present facts to support your argument, do you have them
He’s just getting introduced to US luxuries and taking advantage of them. Some fat guy the Yanks had 100 years ago behaved the same way
I have to agree with Pete right now that my initial impression of Chapman gives me cause to be very careful in evaluating him.
How much will it cost to get this guy? If it is near 100 million, that is alot of money to gamble on one young unproven guy. Let someone else go for it and spend the money elsewhere. Unless 100 million is chump change for the Yanks and won’t affect anything else they can do (doubtful).
Oh, no one is begrudging him for indulging in luxuries. He most likely grew up dirt poor and oppressed.
I only worry about players being “loosey-goosey” and riding on their talent.
If players, even pitchers, don’t get their work in, it shows up in the results.
Id rather have Jose Contreras starting tomorrow than Sergio Mitre. The Yanks are 3-1 in games Mitre has started in spite of Mitre.
People can say whatever they want about Contreras, but he is a winner in M.L.B. He went 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA and 154 SO in 204.2 IP for the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox including 3-1 in the postseason that year with a win in his only World Series start (7 IP of 3-run, 6-SO ball). His 2005 postseason > any postseason Mike Mussina ever had for the Yanks. That doesn’t make him better than Mussina in general, of course, but it does make him better than Mussina when it counted the most, and Mussina had wayyy more opportunities to do what Contreras did in the postseason than Contreras. So what if 2005 was Contreras’s only good season? He got it done at every level of the postseason that year (a win in every series). No one can ever take that or his W.S. ring away from him.
B.t.w. this isn’t directed at Peter, just to anyone who wants to knock Contreras who I still think has something left, even if he’s just a fifth starter at best at this point.
Knowing what we know now, how much do you think Contreras would be worth if he was coming onto the market, as a youngster, today?
Huh. Nice to see Cuddyer crush one of another pitcher. Delmon Young just went yard, too. Back to back by “Flyball” Washburn.
I don’t ever remember Jose Contreras throwing 102mph…nor do i remember anyone saying he did.
Then there’s this:
“Chapman walked out of the room carrying just his passport and a pack of cigarettes.”
Add a 100$ and a condom to that and it sounds like my first night in Amsterdam.
Then:
“Though nerves still rankled him, Chapman spent his first four days of freedom partying in Amsterdam.”
And I’m betting this article will be his last exposure to the mainstream US media for a while.
Chapman, intriging. Speaking of pitchers from island nations, let us take a moment to think of Chien-ming Wang and all our Yankee-fan brothers and sisters on Taiwan, which was just battered by its worst typhoon in 50+ years. Here is a photo of a multi-story hotel falling into a river:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepa.....ready.html
I hope all the LoHud Taiwan readers are well and best of luck to you.
‘Just looked up Contreras’s 2009 stats:
The bad:
4-10, 4.95 ERA, 8 HR, 6 WP, 4 HBP
The good:
He is only 3.1 IP shy of averaging 6 IP/GS (92.2 IP in 16 starts) and has 71 SO to 37 BB, so 3 SO shy of a 2:1 SO:BB ratio.
At this point I’d gladly take him to start tomorrow and Saturday vs. an anemic Seattle offense over Mitre. Whoever starts those games isn’t starting in Boston with the off-day 8/20. Is this Contreras’s final season under contract with Chicago? He’d be a decent plug-in.
The thing about Contreras is, why isn’t he pitching in the majors?
Pete,
There are very few mature 21 year olds anywhere these days.
My nephew got paid because he was one of the few mature 21 year olds the Pirates interviews. Needless to say, he was “trained well” to interview that way! lol
Seriously though, he is definitely immature. Doesn’t make him a bad kid though.
Small world.
My accountant actually flew to see him recently. He handles quite a few of the Cuban defectors. He had the same initial impression.
Its all about who he surrounds himself with during this entire process.
You can immature and not a bad kid. If you are a bad kid AND immature, you pass.
Everything I’ve heard about him though is that he’s a good kid.
If that’s the case, you gotta go all in on him because of the talent.
If he was draft eligible, he goes no lower than 2, perhaps even 1 since Scott isn’t representing him.
That’s a rare talent for the Yankees to find in the amateur world.
Pete at this point I take contreras as our 5th starter.
It be nice.
If Stephen Strasburg were a free agent, he’d command a $100M plus contract, with absolutely no doubt in my mind.
Strasburg has a 100 mph fastball, almost MLB ready breaking stuff, and good command of the strike zone.
Chapman has a 100 mph fastball, mediocre breaking stuff, and mediocre command.
He’ll get a $20-30M contract. I wouldn’t mind signing him for that, with the caveat that he has a much higher chance of being a bust.
I definitely agree that he’s not in the Yankee rotation next year if he signs. I think its more like he’s in the bullpen in the second half of the year and possibly a rotation arm in 2010, and that’s only if he progresses quickly.
If not, add a year to the process.
He’s a rare talent and definitely a guy you do all the due diligence necessary to see if he’s a fit into your organization.
contreras was much older then chapman.
SJ is correct most 21 yr olds are just stupid kids.
just because they look like men do not make them a man but most are still boys…
how do you predict a guys hunger to excell and drive???Especially someone coming from a whole other type of culter!!!!Tough to figure out….
SJ, think Hal will open his pocketbooks for this guy? He wouldn’t even do it for Halladay (forget what the Yankees would have to give up, he wouldn’t allow Cash to take on the $10 million in salaray), so I doubt he’d do it for Chapman.
Betsy,
They didn’t get Halladay because of money. They weren’t emptying the farm to get him.
It won’t take 423 million to sign him, what Hal spent this last off-season, to improve the team.
Hal isn’t as cheap as you think he is.
The rain is preventing me from mowing the lawn…time for some Tecmo Bowl on the Wii.
Hal will spend the $$ if it makes baseball sense. See: new Yankee 1B.
But can’t see $100m when we have CC/AJ/Joba/Hughes/Wang for the next few years at the least.
I’m for getting Aroldis and if he takes a couple years then maybe you throw him into Mo’s role, but he would take up the lefty slot that Pettitte will soon vacate.
Yeah, it was my impression that Halladay situation was similar to Santana, in that you’d be paying twice (salary plus prospects), and there was no extension negotiation allowed, so at the end of next season, you’re in the same boat with everyone else bidding for his services, and no guarantee you’ll keep him, and you’ve lost some really excellent prospects that may have given you 5 years or so of service for 1 year and 2 months of service.
Not to mention that the “prospects” wanted were already paying dividends on the major league roster for the Yankees and losing even one of them created more questions than getting Halladay answered.
Also, when they had that press conference about the college football games at the stadium, they asked Hal about getting players and such, and whle he was adamant that he would not discuss finances, he didn’t sound like a guy who was going to lock the coffers down.
I’m not worried about the Yankees spending money on the right players. I do think they’re becoming smarter shoppers, though.
Is he the next Contreras? Best Cuban pitcher since… Electric stuff, best in Cuba… Lots of comparisons and hype.
Does anybody remember Dice-K’s fearsome “gyro ball”? It was all you heard or read about. He’s regressed to the mean.
Look at Joba. He gets a lot of attention very early and then gets a DUI arrest. He still gets stubborn with Po and seems to fight himself. Fact is that Joba, with all his hype and even after his admittedly dominating bullpen stint, still needs to grow up and soak in the experience. That’s after going to college here and a year in MLB.
Aroldis comes with a very sexy tag – 101 mph lefty. But he’s living large, a playa, very raw, with visions of tens of millions of dollars floating in his head. Even the most level headed kid will have trouble staying straight with that stuff going on.
As we all know by now, HOF talent with a 10 cent head ain’t going anywhere. You can project an arm, but projecting a personality is even less certain. A personality “comp” for Chapman sounds like Pedro Martinez. The Yankees take chances on high risk candidates, but the risk usually pertains to physical issues, not emotional ones.
The early word on the street is very positive on what Chapman can do, but not on who he is. No need to jump at this one. Do the Due Diligence.
I still hope we sign him if he can throw even mid-nineties. He’s a lefty so he’s worth the look.
Sox Fans just wanted to say that I hope u keep up the hatred of our team. Its like the hammer and the Nail! We R the Hammer 26X over
Things to be happy about:
~Yankees are 5.5 games up on RS
~Not only did the RS lose 3straight to the Yankees,but 2 straight to their wilcard rival.
~Yuklis(spelling intended) lamenting to boston.com,that the the Yankees-RS scene is very tiresome.
~RS have lost 11 of the last 16 road games, (ouch)
~According to boston.com,if the get swept tonight,the sky would be falling on RS nation.Bring on the sweep!!
LOL I don’t mean to make it sound as if Hal is cheap – he’s not, since he spent a boatload of $$$ over the offseason. I just meant to say that he’s got his limits……..All I know is that Cash said that they were not able to take on Halladay’s salary (though I hardly think they would have made the trade even if they could, given what Toronto was demanding).
26 Titles = 2 Billion dollars. 4 Titles = 1 billion dollars, Beating the Red Sox and being the Hammer in our rivalry, PRICE LESS!!
I don’t know, m, I don’t see the absolute sure things that are Joba and Hughes and Wang (!) Keeping the Yankees from being aggressive with a big-upside prospect that only costs money. I know you think we’re “stuffed with pitching” yet we currently find ourselves with only 4 starters. My feeling is we will be major players in the Chapman game.
Something else you said: bring back Jose Molina? Any reason besides your ‘the guys love throwing to him’ mantra?
There is no such thing as “too much pitching”, and the Yankees have plenty of money in the bank and coming off the books.
If they pass on Chapman, it won’t be for financial reasons.
Some friends of mime watched Chapman pitch in San Diego back in March……Incredible power arm, erratic, poor mechanics….Once this kid is exposed to a pitching coach and is put on a program, he could be something very rare and very special…….If Stratsberg doesn’t sign with The Nationals, how long does he have to pitch in an Independent League before he’s a Free Agent ??????
Boston Globe reported that Redsox have put claim on Guzman from the Nationals
On Chapman….Get him, Get him. That’s all.
BTW the one remaining Pirate Capt. Duke is giving a good #5 SP start. When do we call him up
How do we know that Chapman is really 21?
Washburn is throwing meatballs & beach balls…what happened to this guy?
Nick,
I think they would be aggressive, but I could see them bowing out if it got into stupid territory.
I don’t know much about either pitcher, but I could see the Yankees chasing Strasbourg (were he available) more than Chapman.
For whatever reason, Chapman seems like a true “gamble”.
As for Jose! Jose! my reasoning is this. He’s the best backup catcher in the game in my very uninformed opinion. I know he’s old (didn’t know he was that old!) and he had quad issues this season. I know we have great catching depth in the farm system, but having Jose back for another year allows us to develop that depth even further. And Jose wouldn’t be an exorbitant expense, and he seems to love the Yankees. Even if he gets injured, then we can dip into the catching cache
for another backup.
And signing him for another year would be a blocking move against him signing with another contender. Backup catchers are a valuable commodity, I feel.
“How do we know that Chapman is really 21?”
WBC regulations are incredibly strict, he would have been found out by now, plus the report that he may not be 21 was started by some NYTimes or Newsday columnist and never was followed up. Chapman from all reports and insiders is 21.
He has a passport that shows his birthdate to be 21. Every piece of documentation he has used has showed him to be 21.
Nothing has been proven to show he’s older.
Pat M,
He would have to go back into the draft next year if he doesn’t sign with the Nationals.
Ironically, the Nationals may have the first pick in the draft next year! lol
Perhaps he’s hoping the Padres finish with the worst record so he can get drafted by them next year.
Hard to know what Scott has in mind with this kid.
He would be wise to sign this year. You never know what a year of inactivity can do to a pitcher.
LOL I think I am either losing my mind or my glasses just got broken, but I read on my other major board that Carl Pavano is a better pitcher than AJ Burnett.
We know Chapman is really 21 because he sleeps past noon, wears a lot of bling, and plays video games all the time.
Is he really a smoker? That’s just gross.
Hey Pete…I read via Ken Rosenthal that the Yanks are interested in maybe bringing on Mark Mulder. I guess he is close to a comeback and working out with Rick Peterson. Can you maybe do a little investigative reporting and see if there is any truth to the Yanks interest for us? Thanks
I don’t see Molina coming back next year. It would take at least 2 million a year to bring him back.
They have Cervelli ready at $400,000 per year to be the backup.
I love Jose and it would be neat if he came back.
I think economics will preclude it since they have a kid ready to assume that role next year at 20% of the cost.
What if Strasbourg goes into an independent league? Would a year as a professional make him a free agent?
Guzman has 13 errors and counting at SS,go RS!!
SJ —
Of course if they don’t sign Chapman it’ll be because of financial considerations!
If they can sign him for $ One million would they? Of course.
If they drop out when the bidding hits $ 20 million or $ 50 million it’s a financial decision. I’m sure they’ll investigate the kid and decide what they are willing to pay. If the kid or his handlers demand more they’ll drop out for financial reasons.
If someone demands more than you think they are worth and you refuse to pay it that is the definition of a “financial decision.”
SJ,
I know. The writing’s on the wall. Indeed, it would be neat.
SJ, think Hal will open his pocketbooks for this guy? He wouldn’t even do it for Halladay (forget what the Yankees would have to give up, he wouldn’t allow Cash to take on the $10 million in salaray), so I doubt he’d do it for Chapman.
————————————————–
I understand that Hal Stienbrenner has a problem with the whole luxury tax thing…not with spending money on good players. He doesn’t like paying a luxury tax to other clubs who use that money to drive up the salaries of players the Yankees might want.
This is a different case than the Halladay situation because it involves paying a huge bonus to the player and won’t count against the Yankees luxury tax money. I doubt he’d stand in the way of this.
I saw Chapman’s interview on ESPN and he reminds me of a regular young guy you see every day on the streets of NY.
Right now he looks like he’s in excellent shape and on the interview he said he wanted to be the best pitcher in the WORLD.
I have no doubt the Yankees will go all in for him. They can trade the extra pitching they have for a young corner outfielder with upside.
Sign Chapman then trade Joba for Doc
ínteresting, m…
Maybe we should sign Molina to a 5-year player/coach deal so no other team can tap his smarts until Jeter/Posada/Mo have left the stage. And our prospects can develop into gritty vets!
It would be simpler if you just said you liked him a lot and don’t want to see him in another uniform. I like him too, but not that much.
As for Chapman, you’re saying the Cashman will be aggressive but not stupid? I agree! Just like he was with CC and AJ.
“Hey Pete…I read via Ken Rosenthal that the Yanks are interested in maybe bringing on Mark Mulder.”
He’s a real good SP but last time I heard this name he threw his shoulder out for the umpteenth time.
Joe,
No. Even if he goes to an Independent League, he would have to go back into the draft next year. Similar to what happened to Aaron Crow this year.
Gamble, please.
Oscar or Jaunita?
If the Yankees really want somebody, money doesn’t stand in the way.
If they really want Chapman, the money won’t scare them off, no matter how high it goes.
Its not going to go as high as it would have a year ago because the economy has taken its toll on a lot of teams in MLB.
In a way, that makes it even more enticing for the Yankees because the numbers will probably be lower than originally projected to sign him.
Chapman to TB might work for them to get the cubans from Miami to Tampa/stPete… just saying. Obviously florida would be intersting, but they don’t spend the moneys
“Sign Chapman then trade Joba for Doc”
LOL this is still too funny to read.
Nick,
I’ve said all along 1-year.
You aked me a question, and I gave you a thoughtful answer. And it still wasn’t good enough for you?
If you knew my answer, then why’d you ask the question?
also, It would definitely be safer to save the money for King Felix, assuming he changed his outlook of the yanks
Whether and how the yankees decide to pursue Chapman is going to depend on how they chose to stratify their risk.
Chapman has significant risks associated with him.
But to start drawing definitive conclusions about who he is based on an article by ESPN and his nationality seems silly.
Where was El Duque from again?
Chapman in that article said he wanted to be the best pitcher in the world.
As I remember, the best pitcher on the yankees currently plays video games incessantly in the club house, even on days he starts.
But sure there is huge risk involved.
There’s no guarantee that the kid will be any good.
But the way he can throw a baseball cannot be taught. That’s the bottom line.
There is no way to overestimate what it means to have a left handed pitcher who can throw like that.
He was so raw at the WBC – his mechanics are so clunky – and he was still throwing in the mid to high 90′s with ease.
Pitching wins. Left handed pitching is the single most valuable resource in the game.
Cashman was asked in the off season why he signed AJ in the off season after so many free agent misses on pitching.
He said that Stick taught him that you can never stop big game hunting.
Cashman is an elephant. He might not work out, he might stomp on part of the yankee’s own organization.
He will under not circumstances be ready to pitch any time soon.
But if this kid hits, the yankees have another dynasty.
You can spend decades looking for an arm like this from the left side and not find it.
“Chapman to TB might work for them to get the cubans from Miami to Tampa/stPete…”
That’s well and good except for according to sources he wants to pitch in NY, even told spanish media (Univision) his dream is to pitch for the Yankees.
That would by “aksed”.
CB,
Exactly. Chapman, Joba, Hughes. If he hits, your pitching is set for years. If you miss, is it really any worse than Carl Pavano and/or Kei Igawa.
There are risks with EVERY signing. However, someone with Chapman’s skillsets are so rare, its inconcievable to me the Yankees won’t be all in on this one.
“also, It would definitely be safer to save the money for King Felix, assuming he changed his outlook of the yanks”
What do you mean changed his outlook? the only reason he didn’t end up in NY is b/c his idol Freddy Garcia (yes Freddy Garcia that Freddy) was pitching for Seattle.
For the informed, who’d you prefer? Felix Hernandez or Chapman?
Oh boy, I listened to A Dave Duncan interview (yes Shelley’s dad,and pitch coach STL CARDS)lament over his not so good recovery from rotator cuff surgery(2007).He’s got a bad shoulder.Man I hope the Yankees are careful.
Friendly banter not so friendly?
I did not know all your thinking on Molina — for example I didn’t know about the ‘sign him to block him from playing with another team’ angle.
I think the younger/cheaper/more athletic push will win out over sentiment, but I didn’t mean to offend. My apologies.
If Chapman has the potential to mature into Randy Johnson, a former erratic lefty with an unusually long frame for a pitcher, you gamble 100 times out of 100.
He will be Yankee IMHO.
Wilken De La Rosa had sort of a mixed game today, but, after the 2nd inning, he was outstanding.
In the first two innings, he allowed 2 hits, a hit batter and 3 walks. He also allowed zero runs. Overall, his line was 6 innings, 3 runs, 0 runs, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts and 1 hit batter.
His biggest issue is really slowing down when runners get on. This is a change from last year for some reason. In his last 13 innings: 13 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts.
“For the informed, who’d you prefer? Felix Hernandez or Chapman?”
Chapman is and a much rarer hit or miss guy, but King Felix is established. With that said King Felix no contest.
Chapman is better than Felix Hernandez.
Felix is a nice pitcher, but no Chapman.
M,
It isn’t a one or the other decision. King Felix is not available and may never be. If he is available, he’s a FA after the 2011 season.
Chapman is available now.
If the Mariners sign Felix to a long term deal, he will never see the market.
If he sees the market, the Yankees would still be in position to do something, even if they signed Chapman.
The upside of having a cash cow for a stadium to add 100 million more annually to your bottom line than the old building.
Trivia Q of the day:
The 2009 Yankee payroll is more than the GDP of how many countries?
“If Chapman has the potential to mature into Randy Johnson, a former erratic lefty with an unusually long frame for a pitcher, you gamble 100 times out of 100.
He will be Yankee IMHO.”
First time I agree w/ your super kicked face. Chapman is pretty much a must gamble.
Chapman is not better than Felix Hernandez. Not even close.
You hope one day he turns into Felix Hernandez. He ain’t there yet.
SJ and/or CB,
I know both of you have been talking about how big the Tex signing has been in tipping the scales in the rivalry. Here’s a good article (mostly) about Theo’s “genius”.
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....tml?page=0
The only issue I had was Harper’s assumption that a Halladay trade to Boston was even possible. Can fault Theo for that non-move, but Harper makes it sound like holding on the Buccholz cost them a chance to get Halladay. Is that true?
“However, someone with Chapman’s skillsets are so rare, its inconcievable to me the Yankees won’t be all in on this one.”
Yup.
You sign a kid like this knowing that there is a real chance this you are going to waste $40M.
You go in eyes open. There’s no way around the fact that you could lose the entire investment.
But as SJ said – is that really worse than Kei Igawa? Pavano?
Both signings were embarrassing for the franchise. But they survived them and neither really hurt them so much that they weren’t able to make other moves.
Champman’s actually a much better risk because the reward is so much higher than it is with those two.
There is no way around it – you just will not find an arm like this with any certainty in the next 10 years.
Watching him throw – even in that brief period in the WBC – was astonishing because there is no way someone that raw should be generating that kind of velocity from the left side.
Compare what you saw from Chapman to what we’ve seen from Yu Darvish in international competition.
There is simply no comparison. None. I wouldn’t even want the yankees to make any kind of large expenditure on Darvish.
But what we saw from Chapman was something very special.
His arm is more electric than David Price’s. More electric than Clayton Kershaw’s or Derek Hollands. He’s not a better pitcher than those guys in any way. On the flip side – he has physical tools that none of them have.
I can absolutely see Chapman turning into a bad signing.
I cannot see the yankees passing on this player.
SJ you gotta believe Seattle is going to franchise King Felix. Would explain them getting rid of contracts. I’d be shocked to see King Felix as a FA, Seattle has shown they will franchise certain players, you’d think he’d be one of them.
Nick,
Sorry about that. I was fine with the 5 year joke, but then when you told me I should’ve just said I love Jose and I didn’t want to see him in another uni I took offense when I shouldn’t.
The fact is I do love Jose. And would like him back for 1 more year. What uni he wears after that doesn’t bother me at the moment. I know Cervelli is ready or close to it, but I rather love having that catching depth. Jorge and Jose both went down, and who was there to cover? Cervelli.
If Jorge and Cervelli both go down next season, it’s ? and ?.
Did anyone watch the highlights of King Felix’ last start? His defense self-destructed around him. That Mariners team really looks like a long term death trap for Felix. I don’t think they have a solid foundation to build on so I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he avoided a long-term commitment to the M’s. When big dollars are involved, it’s hard to know though. Whatever the case, I want the Yankees to be aggressive in trying to acquire him as the Sox were. I want both King Felix and Aroldis Chapman.
Oh, I agree – the Yanks should absolutely go after Chapman. That lesson Cash learned from stick is an important one – I don’t see how any GM worth his salt can do his job if he’s afraid to take risks. You just have to know who to take risks on……and do the due diligence (not just throw $$$ around for the sake of throwing $$$ around). With AJ, they didn’t just say “here’s a guy, he looks talented, will give him $$$”. They did their due diligence with him. In particular, they spoke with JP, but also other people (including Al Leiter, I think). They decided that chances were very good that AJ had turned his career around and that’s why they decided to go for it.
Brandon,
Are you kidding? A kid Felix’s age hitting FA? The world will be his oyster. Unless Seattle signs him to $30m per, he’s going to test free agency. In fact, hasn’t he already said he’s going to test the waters?
Thanks for all the answers, guys. Can we agree that Felix would be worth the $100m+ more than Chapman. Because he’s the established pitcher that dominates in a much tougher league?
“His arm is more electric than David Price’s. More electric than Clayton Kershaw’s or Derek Hollands. He’s not a better pitcher than those guys in any way. On the flip side – he has physical tools that none of them have.
I can absolutely see Chapman turning into a bad signing.
I cannot see the yankees passing on this player”
The bad he turns into a 40-50 million dollar bust for the next 4 yrs.
The good, can you imagine if he hits his ceiling, young Randy Johnson meets Brian Taylor for 40 million, possibly 8-10 mil per season…MY GOD would that be a steal or what.
GO GET HIM.
And at some point, ace pitchers on bad teams want to win. I think Halladay and Felix are at that point. Teams will be tripping over themselves for those two.
No worries, m, and what I typed came out less friendly than it was supposed to.
You could very well be correct that insurance depth will trump other considerations. However, your ? marks failed to account for our man/child/monster/savior, who some of the informed have suggested could potentially be another part of the equation.
psh… let somebody else take a 50 or 75 million dollar risk on someone who would have to begin in the minor leagues… way too much money on somebody that is completely unproven, even for the Yanks… you could draft someone and pay him 3 mil and he could end up being an all-star… if i’m paying that much cash, I want a Yu Darvish or someone that is going in your rotation right away
Seattle has the money, that’s for sure. They would be nuts, as the Twins would with Mauer, to not sign Felix long term.
M,
JP was looking for a kings ransom from either the Red Sox or Yankees for Doc. Buchholz wasn’t the holdup in the deal. JP is not a huge Buchholz fan. It was the volume of prospects (which, BTW, Boston does not have) that made that deal unworkable.
Ironically, the four of the five best (“best” as in players other teams really like) prospects the Red Sox have are Bard, Masterson, Hagadone, and Kelly. The fifth is Lars Anderson.
The Red Sox traded two of them for Victor Martinez.
Buchholz is getting to the age where he isn’t a prospect anymore. They actually need him to be a productive member of their own rotation.
Ryan Westermorland is an “untouchable”? Please. They made a pre-draft deal with him to not trade him for 2 years. However, he hasn’t shown ANYTHING yet to be considered an “untouchable” propsect.
Bowden and Tazawa are decent prospects and that’s it. Certainly not “elite” in the eyes of a lot of scouts.
They didn’t have the goods to deliver Halladay to Boston unless they were interested in moving Bard in the deal and that wasn’t going to happen.
Brandon Laird is having a big game for Tampa….3-4 with a homer, triple and single and 3 RBI.
David Phelps line: 6.1 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs (earned), 1 walk, 4 strikeouts. He ws outstanding at Charleston and has gotten better after being promoted to Tampa.
His overall record, so far: 12-3 record, 2.46 ERA, 22 Starts, 131.2 innings, 127 hits, 49 runs, 36 earned runs, 9 home runs allowed, 28 walks, 108 strikeouts 1.55 go/ao .256 batting average against
speaking of investements, anyone else wondering what they will have taken in at the New YS over this series? It’s got to be mindboggling.
Imagine:
Felix
CC
AJ
Chamberlain/Hughes
Chapman
Disgusting. Improbable. But possible.
“he only issue I had was Harper’s assumption that a Halladay trade to Boston was even possible. Can fault Theo for that non-move, but Harper makes it sound like holding on the Buccholz cost them a chance to get Halladay. Is that true?”
m,
There is no comparison between Hernandez and Chapman. Hernandez is right now poised to go on a run which is going to make him the best pitcher in the game over the next 5 years. There’s no way you can project chapman to ever reach that level with certainty.
But there’s no guarantee that yankees every get a shot at Felix either.
With regards to that Harper article – IMO the Boston front office has for sometime been intentionally leaking trade rumors in order to generate buzz about itself. They’ve wanted to create a narrative that they are so brilliant that they can pull off nearly anything.
So that’s why we tend to hear about so many of the deal they are involved with in one way or another.
It was amazing that post trade deadline there it was pretty common place to read about how crazy it was that Seattle could have possibly turned down a deal for Felix if Boston was willing to give up 5 prospects. How could they!
It’s a joke. Jack Z never even considered it.
The fact is – right now the Sox don’t have the players to pull off a trade for Felix unless they wanted to trade Lester. They don’t.
I can’t remember the last time I saw a prospect who has had no major league success who is purported to be more valuable in bringing back talent in a trade than Clay Bucchholz. It is amazing.
Any player in the major leagues can be had if the Sox put Buchholz on the table. Anyone can be bought with the Bucchholz chip.
But of course they will never part with him. Ok then…
So no, I don’t think they were ever in the running for Doc in any way.
They leak these rumors so that people – including their fanbase – really think that they are in on every deal and have this super-human, houdini like power to pull off any trade they please because they are geniuses and because they have an infinite amount of the game’s best prospect talent.
It’s a myth that too many reporters and sabermetrics oriented analysts have bought hook, line and sinker.
And the problem for the Sox is that they also as an organization may have started buying into this myth.
Chapman is a much better pitcher than Darvish.
Darvish isn’t ready for anybody’s rotation in the majors and Chapman has much more upside than Darvish.
Its not going to take 75 million to sign him. He will sign for 30-50 million, spaced out over 6 years.
For a kid of his talents, that’s well worth the risk for a large market team.
David Phelps is a BAD MAN on Sundays.
I’m wondering if WDR becomes a #4 or 5 SP ala Jonathan Sanchez or replaces Marte in the BP a yr. from now.
Nick,
How could I possibly forget about monstero (Rebecca takes care of that)?
Let’s just say that he still has his driver’s permit and I’m not quite ready to hand the keys of the maybach over to him just yet.
To be clear, I’m absolutely fine with Cervelli as the back up. I have nothing against the kid. Except his eyes might turn out to be overhyped. You never know, eyes change color.
I just think if it makes sense for both sides, Jose would be a welcome member of the defending world…
Tazawa rhymes with Igawa.
oops. something took over my keyboard.
I just think if it makes sense for both sides, Jose would be a welcome member of the Yankees next year.
“He will sign for 30-50 million, spaced out over 6 years.”
If that’s the case like Nike saids “JUST DO IT!”
Potentially a Randy Johnson in his early 20′s I’d slap somebody if they don’t take that risk, the Angels are going to be a problem here, Moreno loves this kid so does the White Sox scouts.
Roy Halladay pitched today for Toronto so he won’t be available when we host the Jays on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Thats the first time we’ve missed him in a long time.
Junichi Tazawa is Japanese for Calvin Schiraldi.
Nats are about to win 8 straight
Unfortunately it sounds like this Aroldis kid is going to end up like Gooden, Strawberry, etc..
lol @ knowing the exact details of his contract already
coming to the Yanks to help them win WS’s in his 30′s?
I suspect the ever-combustible ‘Oil Can’ Boyd is still burning.
Brandon… I’M AWESOME ! Does this broom stick go w/ my outfit?
August 9th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
I’m wondering if WDR becomes a #4 or 5 SP ala Jonathan Sanchez or replaces Marte in the BP a yr. from now.
————————————————————
Obviously, where he pitches will depend on what the Yankees needs are, but, if he gets back to his earlier habits of just pitching instead of stalling and pitching slowly, he would fit nicely at the back of a rotation. He has the makings of a very good 8th inning setup, though.
CB,
Absolutely right. I have never seen an organization be spoken about in such glowing terms over deals that DIDN’T happen than the Red Sox.
I live in a simple sports world. You either win or lose and you either make a trade or you don’t. There is no “almost” in the trade business.
Every year we hear the same crap.
“Theo is working on a big 4 team trade and the Red Sox are going to acquire everybody they want in exchange for their vaunted prospects”.
Its all nonsense.
Most scouts I know aren’t even Buchholz fans. They LOVE Bard. Really liked Masterson’s versatility. Think a LOT of Casey Kelly and LOVE Nick Hagadone.
Those “geniuses” gave up two of the more highly regarded prospects they have for a glorified DH.
If you really look at the Red Sox roster right now, they remind me of the 2004-2008 Yankees. Lots of names but, an old, unathletic team containing some guys (Ortiz and Lowell) with contracts that hold them down from doing other things.
They have gone in the opposite direction of their media narrative and have a roster that is poorly constructed.
They also have no SS, no prospects coming who can play SS, and have several other shortcoming in their vaunted farm system.
If they don’t make the playoffs this year, a real possibility, I’m going to be fascinated to hear/read the media narrative of their collective “genius”.
“Nats are about to win 8 straight”
Nick would you double or nothing on 9?
Brandon,
I will be extremely disappointed if WDR “becomes” the next Jonathan Sanchez. I mean do you dream about Sanchez?
I’ve never seen such a mediocre pitcher with so much love from another person.
Cito took it seriously when Doc said he was looking forward to not facing our lineup as much.
And m, I also should be clear that I didn’t mean to (overly) belittle the tug of sentiment. It’s easy to dream of winning a title this year and then bring back the whole cast for an encore.
Bard is good.
Double or nothing? That’s reckless. But I bet those were mostly plus-$ wagers, so let the good times roll, but not for extra units.
Everyone in baseball knows that anyone one of the three ( Hughes, Chamberlain, Montero, & to a lesser degree Jackson ) would have brought back Halladay or whoever Cashamn wanted……It was stated early on that any deal that started with one of those three players was the end of any dialog……Boston has an interesting PR department loaded with spin doctor contacts……
“Absolutely right. I have never seen an organization be spoken about in such glowing terms over deals that DIDN’T happen than the Red Sox.”
That’s the thing. They get immense amounts of credit – for deals they did not execute on. Deals they did not execute on.
What business would ever get credit, say in the business press, for not completing a transaction? It’s amazing.
The red sox are lauded for their administrative “imagination.”
Hey look, we came up with this amazing idea that Felix Hernandez would look very good in our uniform. So we tried to get him.
Wow. Congratulations. Evidently 4 other teams inquired on Felix as well – including the yankees – but to listen to the media narrative it was only them, with their bold management philisophy that had the imagination to understand that trading for one of the game’s best pitchers would be a good move.
How do you get “credit” for just thinking up an idea. An idea that you never came close to making reality?
That’s like giving Microsoft credit because they failed in their attempts to acquire Yahoo but at least thought up the idea that owning Yahoo might help out some.
Aroldis is an anagram for Al-Roids.. Just saying..
Instead of taking shots at me, how about offering your thoughts on what you think he will get? That is if you can formulate thoughts.
I gave an opinion. You don’t like it, I don’t think I’ll be losing any sleep over it.
SJ44,
Can’t begin to say how much I, and I’m sure we, love to read and appreciate your cut to the chase, on point, unbiased comments. Truly great to hear an insider’s perspective, Pete’s great ongoing blogging and journalistic views and the huge fan interaction day in and day out year round.
This is truly an under the radar, great site that I believe rivals any on the web today.
As I’ve said before, I don’t have a chance to post much but have read religiously since Pete began this undertaking a few years ago. I’ve gotten to know a number of the great folks through the blog and the LoHud outings at PNC Field. I can only hope it continues well into the future.
Thanks to all!
The beauty of the failed Sox bid for King Felis is that it also involved San Diego sending its best player to to Seattle. Still not sure what San Diego was supposed to get back for its troubles… Hmmm, maybe that’s why it didn’t happen. But so creative!
I’m glad the Sox forfeited 2 top prospects for VMart. He’s a big acquisition for them and I wanted the Indians to stick it to the Sox. Hopefully this turns into a Bartolo Colon – Sizemore/Lee/Phillips deal for them.
m
Jose Contreras is still pitching in the majors. He’s starting for the Chi-Sox against Cleveland today. He was awful in his last start (vs. the Angels).
Why wouldn’t you want to sign him? Wang might very well be done as a Yankee. We have yet to see Phil Hughes pitch a full season in the rotation. Andy likely gone or has at most one year left. We started this year thinking that backing up the starting 5 would be Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves and as it turns out for a variety of reasons Mitre is the 5th starter. Get him. Bring El Duque in as a special pitching coach (make him the pitching coach, he was one of the smartest pitchers we have seen), you saw how Contreras blossomed once the two were together.
And all this talk about him partying in Europe. Ok, you are 21 years old. You have lived your life in a third world communist country. You just escaped. You are about to become a multi-millionaire. And to boot you are in Amsterdam. Tell me, are you going back to your hotel room to read a Bill James book?
the Yanks will get Chapman if only because it makes no sense not to get him….they have masterfully worked a plan of hording as many high ceiling young arms as they possibly can for inventory because that ultimately is the most expensive to procure…so this move is just further execution of that strategy….with the amatuer draft set up the way it is the Yanks will NEVER have the oppurtunity to draft top 5 talents via it (so no Bryce Harper next year) so they must be aggressive in the international markets to make up for this market disadvantage and they will not be outspent.
i for one think that Chapman will be had for 20-25 million myself….i think Dice-K has really soured a lot of teams on these international supersigns and Chapman is considered more of a project/tools situation than say Strassburg who’s been coached by a HOF in Gwynn and in the US baseball system so i think that the # of teams that can spend for Chapman is limited(Mets-can’t afford ‘em after Madoff,Bos-samrting i think abit about the Dice-K mess,White Sox-i can see them in it to a point,Yank-we’ll get him.)in a perfect world the Marlins with the new stadium coming online in 2012 would sign Chapman and put him @ the front of a rotation with Josh Johnson/Nolasco/Chapman/Volstad with a nucleus of HanRam,Maybin,Morrison,Stanton,Dominguez and Nic Johnson…they would have more young talent than all teams in the NL east in 2 years
2009 YANKEE WINS PREDICTION CHART
Created on April 6, 2009
poster # of games
TOMPASS 124
*S.O.S. 118
ROB THOMPSON 110
**RAYVT 107
#2 FOR PREZ 106
PEL 105
**TOM B 104
TRISHA 103
VSPOT 103
KEVIN IN CT 102
NICK IN SF 102
YANKEESJTJ 102
GLOBAL WARMING 102
THE PREDIKTER 101
**L-tothe2ND 101
LORI 100
MEL 100
TEX’S NEW BF 100
PATRICK 100
**ERICA 100
BARDOS 99
VIN 99
JENNIFER 99
ED 99
**NYY626 99
DT 99
**STEVE-B 99
LAURA 98
PETE ABE 98
RISHI 98
RUSSW210 98
CLAYB 98
DOREEN 98
RB15 98
TOM IN NJ 97
FRAN 97
S.A. 97
HOKIEHILL 97
UNCLE ELLSWORTH 97
#2 FOR PREZ 96
GAYLE 96
PAT 96
WESTERNER99 96
PSYLUCK 96
STEVEB 96
MICHAEL KAY 96
JOHN IN OHIO 95
MARK 95
B-DAVE 94
**WAIT TIL THEY COME 94
**haiku-man 62