Yankees break the bank for picks
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Aug 17, 2009 
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According to MLB’s informal “slot system” for paying draft picks, the Yankees were allowed to spend $1,734,30 to sign first-round pick Slade Heathcott, second-round pick J.R. Murphy and fifth-round selection Caleb Cotham.
They dropped $4,125,000.
The Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox and other clubs routinely ignore MLB’s policy, which is their right. There is talk that MLB will fine teams this season for going “over slot.” But those teams interested in winning will chalk it up as a cost of doing business.
It’s a ridiculous system that stunts the growth of prospects. The Yankees should have been allowed to give Heathcott his money and June and sent him to the Gulf Coast League. Instead they had to pretend there were negotiations and meanwhile the kid is playing video games all summer.
The NBA has a rookie salary system mandated by their CBA. You get picked here, you get paid this. Take it or leave it. Their players signs, they go to summer league and everybody is happy.
But in baseball, some of the best players fall into later rounds. The Yankees probably benefit because they can get better players. But a draft should be an equal playing field and in baseball, it’s just not.
but, but i thought the yankees were cheap!
im happy to see slade, murphy and cotham, along with stoneburner, locked up…hopefully there are a couple more high upside guys coming
as much as it does help the Yankees, you’re right Pete
Slade and JR playing video games LMAO
however, the NBA allows players to become restricted free agents much sooner than MLB players. Arbitration is great, but if MLB really took NBA’s policy, players would be free agents before they even reached the big leagues.
It’s tough to force a kid to sign for a slotted amount and be “stuck” with a team for 6 seasons.
tough call…
Will Heathcott and Murphy play at all this year? Maybe a few games in the GC league? Are they Charleston bound next year?
I would love to be drafted by the Yankees. You don’t even need to pay me much!
As bad as this system is.. Football is worse. You got guys making $40 million guaranteed without ever playing in an NFL Game.
Everyone loves to knock the NBA.. But at least their rookie pay system makes sense.
IMO, NOBODY should be getting 1-2 Million guaranteed without ever pitching in A-AAA baseball.
Get ready for $18 beers in 2010!
im not sure but i think every pick signed within the last 2 days should play atleast a few games in rookie ball…unless they have an injury of course..
They would have to change the draft. Players in the N.B.A. or N.F.L., with a few exceptions, don’t get to go back to school or enter next seasons draft.
Then again.. What is money to us? We gave Kei Igawa 46 million to break records in AAA!
Hopefully Yankees can knock Tomko around early tonight, so I don’t need to stay up until 1AM every night this week.
Red sox signed there 3rd round pick for $1.4 million. I think the slot number for that pick was 300,000.
ah…I taste that dinner now…the 1 Million comment…..I am ready Pete…..Go Yanks tonight, if they can’t beat Tomko then there is a serious problem….
I would even invite SJ and Erica…I live outside Akron so I will drive
Hard to cap the MLB draft, but then allow open bidding to International Signings. The NBA, foreign players still need to enter the draft and are not free agents. Capping picks especially early would only encourage top picks to go over seas to get a bigger check.
I am sure this wouldn’t work, but what if the Yankees bought a Japanese club, paid for talent thru that club, grew the talent and then signed them back to the Yankees as free agents. I wonder what types of limitations are placed on something like this happening, it would blow up the whole system.
Erica – always OPPC
August 17th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
I would love to be drafted by the Yankees. You don’t even need to pay me much!
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I don’t know if you’re just wanting to get closer to Damon or get the inside scoop on the daily lineups.
To put the $4.1mil in perspective, it represents 30% of what the Red Sox are paying Julio Lugo not to play for them.
Pete’s right, the teams with the most money can afford to make mistakes both in the draft and free agent markets. The draft especially, should be an equal playing ground. A system needs to be put in place to negate the impact of player’s agents in signing draftees. I’m not in favor of returning to the days of the reserve clause, but something should be done to make the draft more fair.
IDK much about JR Murphy, I do know Slade is a warrior according to teammates, he’s got alot of heart, ALOT! this is a kid who could have shut it down instead came back to play H.S. ball and win a championship and he was the big reason why Texarkana I think it was one it’s first championship in the longest.
RDM
August 17th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
I would even invite SJ and Erica…I live outside Akron so I will drive
****
Are you trying to suck up so I will unban you from GTLU? Or is this because I am so witty and amusing?
Off Topic, but I think the NYY need another LHP in the pen for the post season. Coke can’t do it all by himself. Would be nice if the team could get a look at Dunn or Kroenke (sp?)but they’d have to be called up before 9/1 in order to be playoff eligible so that’s not going to happen. Only chance is a waiver deal. Downs of Toronto would be nice (on DL with toe problem but off DL soon) but I doubt he’d clear waivers.
Its a bad system and I can tell you that from first hand experience.
We made a decision prior to the draft to get Tony signed quickly. My belief was that it was in his best interests to sign quickly and get used to being a pro baseball player. To achieve that goal, we also made sure the Pirates, or any team for that matter, wouldn’t embarrass him with a lowball offer. If that was going to be the case, we had no problems telling teams “no” and going back to BC for his senior year.
If he was going to go #4 to Pittsburgh, he would have to sign for above slot money. He did. Even though it was only 50K above slot, it fell within our guidelines and the Pirates budget. A win win for both parties.
What did signing early do for him?
He was just named SAL Player of the Week for his play last week.
He’s currently at .368 with 13 doubles, 5 HR’s, 33 RBI, and a 1.094 OPS after 28 games.
He’s now the #2 rated prospect in the Pirates farm system one+ months into his pro career. Again, win win for both parties.
He’s been the most productive player from the 2009 Draft to date and has a leg up on everybody who had to wait until the deadline to get Bud to approve their over the slot deals.
In essence, they lose a season of development time and that’s not right.
That’s why the system is a joke. In the end, if teams want the player they are going to go over slot to get him.
Because Bud doesn’t want to look like any more of an idiot than he is, he holds off approving the deals until the deadline and the players lose a summer of development time.
It makes no sense for anybody to run the draft system the way MLB now runs it.
The benefit is signing quickly and playing. The faster you develop, the faster you get to the majors, and the faster your service time clock starts.
won*
I thought Joe Girardi’s quote in the Post today when asked about Tomko starting against the Yankees (it was supposed to be Duchscherer but he was scratched, again, with “non-baseball related issues”) was pretty funny. It reads: “”That’s an interesting twist,” Girardi said. “I think we will have an idea what he will do.”"
I wonder if that is GI-speak for “this means we get to run roughshod over Tomko because we are going to sit on his flat 4-seam fastball and tattoo it all night”?
GreenBeret7
August 17th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Erica – always OPPC
August 17th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
I would love to be drafted by the Yankees. You don’t even need to pay me much!
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I don’t know if you’re just wanting to get closer to Damon or get the inside scoop on the daily lineups.
***
Maybe a little bit of both??? But I never play GTLU. I only run it. Participating in a game I run, would seem like a conflict of interest
One thing for sure…you can’t blame the players (or their agents as much as I’d like to) for taking the absolute most they can get. After all, we have discussed at length how difficult it is for a player to break through to the big leagues. That plus the risks involved with getting injured and never getting a career started and these kids are fighting for their future. It doesn’t make sense (baseball’s fault) to pay kids before they prove/earn anything, but I’d be happy to do the same thing if I was in Heathcott’s shoes…
Equating Baseball and Basketball just doesn’t wash. We’re talking two to five years of developing before a return on your investment in baseball. Pitching is a total gamble, (insert Brackman here two years later).
Kepner wrote this about why Tex doesn’t like to throw to pitchers. It’s on NYTimes.com
“Teixeira is a savant in the field. Do you know why he’s always sliding for balls to his right? Because he hates the 3-1 play. Teixeira understands that gathering a ball without dropping to his knees takes him a few steps farther from first base, meaning he’ll probably have to flip to the pitcher covering, greatly increasing the variables that can go wrong. It happened to him once as a young player in Texas, when pitcher R.A. Dickey fumbled a toss as he looked down for the bag, and Teixeira vowed to make more of an effort to take the ball himself. So that’s what he does.”
During the game Mitre pitched, people were saying that Tex ran to 1st because he doesn’t trust Mitre. Turns out he doesn’t trust any pitcher.
Tomko: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER
“his is a kid who could have shut it down instead came back to play H.S. ball and win a championship and he was the big reason why Texarkana I think it was one it’s first championship in the longest.”
I’m sure that he wanted to come back and play for his team but can we save the Slade Heathcott myth making.
High schoolers who are hurt in their senior years bust their hump to come back so that scouts can see them on the field before the draft.
They have enormous incentives to fight through injuries and get back to playing. They have millions of dollars on the line.
If they don’t back on the field and show something they plummet on draft day.
What a shocker. BIG city team spends BIG city money in a sport with no salary cap, thus enabeling BIG city team to corner the market. Rest of America loses interest in the game of baseball.
Smooth move MLB…..smooth move
RDM
August 17th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
I would even invite SJ and Erica…I live outside Akron so I will drive
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Why would anybody go out to have dinner with you? The object of having dinner is being able to keep it down. You’d make that an unlikely event.
WFAN has the worst commercials ever….
NYYROC, there’s some talk that Michael Dunn could be up here in Sept. call ups, no one knows if Marte is going to be 100% back this yr. but Michael Dunn could be the LH under belly reliever to Phil Coke. Kroenke might be a spot starter and do some LH relief too.
GREAT article on Jeter, Tex and defensive stats:
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/.....d-defense/
Looking at the updates on trade rumors over the past few days, some small market teams went way over slot as well. I don’t know why it’s a Yankee, Sox, Tigers thing, and of course the Yankees are the bad guys while the Sox are the smart ones. The mets seem to be the only team that adheres to the policy, and it doesn’t serve them well at all.
Guaranteed contracts in baseball are attractive, but still not enough to pull more of the multi-sport athletes to baseball.
Selig makes a big deal about the slot system, but for some reason let steroids stain the reputation of baseball. Hmmm, could he be motivated by the bottom line? Nooo, not Bud Selig!
RDM= Tantron Willoughby
Um, Bo, my point exactly. Baseball should control costs with a mandatory slot system like basketball.
Laura – I just read that article – great stuff!
CB, he played w/ a knee brace and busted it on the field, also CL in that playoff series, he wasn’t just playing careful he busted his ass, at any point he could have lost his millions right there. I give a kid like that credit b/c he really could have shut it down.
When does GTLU start?
“WFAN has the worst commercials ever….”
That reminds me…listening to the game on XM yesterday I heard the Mariners’ announcers talk about a promotion they were running during their series with the Royals… in one of the games, the first 20,000 fans will be lucky enough to receive the second DVD in a 2 DVD series of COMMERCIALS featuring Mariners baseball players! Wooohooo! Get your popcorn ready!
Scott August 17th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
WFAN has the worst commercials ever….
—
XM 175 MLB Home Plate has worse… one scam after another…
Brandon…I’M AWESOME!… Getting ready to buy the Marky Mark MVP MIXTAPE Vol.1
August 17th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
NYYROC, there’s some talk that Michael Dunn could be up here in Sept. call ups, no one knows if Marte is going to be 100% back this yr. but Michael Dunn could be the LH under belly reliever to Phil Coke. Kroenke might be a spot starter and do some LH relief too.
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I’d prefer Kroenke’s contact pitching to the weld no-contact pitching of Dunn.
Correction: to the ***wild*** no-contact pitching of Dunn
Guess
The
Line
Up
Hokiehill August 17th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
“WFAN has the worst commercials ever….”
That reminds me…listening to the game on XM yesterday I heard the Mariners’ announcers talk about a promotion they were running during their series with the Royals… in one of the games, the first 20,000 fans will be lucky enough to receive the second DVD in a 2 DVD series of COMMERCIALS featuring Mariners baseball players! Wooohooo! Get your popcorn ready!
—-
The Mariners’ commercials are actually very funny – they’ve been doing them for a few yrs, the players are in them… http://www.mlb.com/sea/fan_for.....s_2009.jsp
Guess the Line Up from 5-6:30 tonight
According to Bill Madden’s article yesterday, The Pirates were going to see a $35mil profit before they even sold a ticket. They received $40mil in revenue sharing and another $35mil from the general fund that distributes mlb liscensing and media money against a $48mil payroll.
If small market teams arent going to invest in major league players, they ought to at least be responsible for investing in their farm systems. Perhaps each team could only be allowed to spend a certain amount on the draft based on a guaranteed proceeds to each club.
Sox slip to #7 on the espn power rankings:
“Opponents have stolen 118 bases against Red Sox catchers, 92 of them against Jason Varitek.”
Can you imagine? Their team ERA would be even lower if Varitek could throw out more guys.
Mick Kelleher is a guy who hasn’t been given enough credit. He easily has improved this infield D immensely, from Jetes up the middle to Robi and even Al at 3B.
“XM 175 MLB Home Plate has worse… one scam after another…”
I continue to be surprise by the number of commercials promoting mortgages for people that normally wouldn’t qualify…that’s the kind of crap that got us into this mess yet it still happens every day. Let me say this to all of you from a lender’s perspective (non-predatory, thank you)…if you can’t afford to buy a house, DONT BUY ONE!! Some scheme is not going to magically fix your credit score or help you double your sallary…
Rishi
August 17th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Guess
The
Line
Up
*****
Umm.. that is correct. Thank you so much for spelling that out!
What’s an under belly reliever?
Do you mean understudy? Or do you want Dunn to be the weak under belly of our bullpen?
RHP Caleb Cotham should immediately get his last name changed to GOTHAM.
Drive,
That’s what the Pirates are doing. They spent almost 10 million on the draft this year. That’s more money than the Yankees have spent on draft picks.
They have the money. They aren’t a “poor” franchise from a financial perspective.
At least they are trying in this latest rebuilding attempt.
Time will tell if it will work.
Slade Heathcott is a true American hero.
“Correction: to the ***wild*** no-contact pitching of Dunn”
He’s wild w/ RHBs, vs LHBs he’s decent for a under belly back up. On stuff alone he can do it GB. I think his changeup vs RHBs is a show me pitch right now that gets him in trouble, vs LHBs he goes FB/SL.
sorry, Erica – I though I read someone asking what it meant…of course, I was skimming so I could be completely wrong
GreenBeret7
August 17th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
RDM
August 17th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
I would even invite SJ and Erica…I live outside Akron so I will drive
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Why would anybody go out to have dinner with you? The object of having dinner is being able to keep it down. You’d make that an unlikely event.
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GB7, this is my favorite post I’ve ever read from you. Thank you.
m
August 17th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
What’s an under belly reliever?
Do you mean understudy? Or do you want Dunn to be the weak under belly of our bullpen?
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That would be relief pitchers like Terry Forster (fat tub of goo) or pre-2008 Brian Bruney.
One less headache when the Yankees face the Orioles for their remaining 6 games.
Aubrey Huff is now a Detroit Tiger.
I prefer my bullpen to have six-pack abs than an underbelly.
BJK
August 17th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
GreenBeret7
August 17th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
RDM
August 17th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
I would even invite SJ and Erica…I live outside Akron so I will drive
————————————————————
Why would anybody go out to have dinner with you? The object of having dinner is being able to keep it down. You’d make that an unlikely event.
———————————————————
GB7, this is my favorite post I’ve ever read from you. Thank you.
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I write pearls of wisdom every day.
“That’s what the Pirates are doing. They spent almost 10 million on the draft this year. That’s more money than the Yankees have spent on draft picks.
They have the money. They aren’t a “poor” franchise from a financial perspective.
At least they are trying in this latest rebuilding attempt.
Time will tell if it will work.”
I would hope so because they sure aren’t spending money on their big club as they traded just about all of their established major league players.
Tyler Kepner’s blog re: the defensive prowlness of Tex and Jeter should be required reading for any baseball fan.
It also shows how much of a joke the UZR system is and how it should never be quoted by anybody when it comes to determining defensive skills of players.
Can you imagine how freaked out we would be if Tampa or another AL team was trying to negotiate with Strasbourg?
“Off Topic, but I think the NYY need another LHP in the pen for the post season. Coke can’t do it all by himself. Would be nice if the team could get a look at Dunn or Kroenke (sp?)but they’d have to be called up before 9/1 in order to be playoff eligible so that’s not going to happen.”
===
Not exactly. In reality, any pitcher on the 40 man roster can be made eligible for the playoffs by putting another pitcher (from the 40 man) on the dl. You then fill that slot.
KROD was a September call up for LA in 2002 but was able to pitch in the playoffs.
Marte, Wang, and Garcia give the Yankees plenty of options.
“Do you mean understudy? Or do you want Dunn to be the weak under belly of our bullpen?”
another words can give Cokey a blow here and there.
Amazing, a month ago people were saying how the Yankees couldn’t beat the good teams. Yankees debunked that quite quickly.
Almost the same turnaround though, Sox can’t beat the good teams, Rangers own them, Rays always beat them, Yankees just swept them. The only team they seem capable of beating in the regular season is the Tigers. Their deep pitching was always weak when you looked at it in reality.
the key loss for them this year was Wakefield. He has always stablized that rotation, goes distance into games, giving the bullpen rest (as you can see Francona almost gives up on games now for fear of burning the pen, letting Traber pitch thru that game was one example of many. Once Wakefield retires which really should be now, they will have some serious issues in that rotation. Beckett is a year away from free agency as well. Good luck getting that home team discount this year. Their inability to land Halladay or King Felix with what was offered is something else glaring, other teams don’t think so highly of guys like Bucholz right now.
Groucho, Thanks for clarifying that. That means the NYY could use Dunn or Kroenke, if they prove they can be effective.
Brandon…I’M AWESOME!… Getting ready to buy the Marky Mark MVP MIXTAPE Vol.1
August 17th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
He’s wild w/ RHBs, vs LHBs he’s decent for a under belly back up. On stuff alone he can do it GB. I think his changeup vs RHBs is a show me pitch right now that gets him in trouble, vs LHBs he goes FB/SL.
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He has “stuff”….just no control.Stuff has never been his issue. He’s the same type of pitcher that people complain that Bruney is, just left handed. I’d rather see Kroenke, because with this infield defense, he could possibly help. Dunn would be fine if he would just back off on the attempts to throw harder.
At some point, it becomes a zero sum game Cash.
When you aren’t competitive at the ML level, and have a lot of bad contracts, if you can turn those guys into talented younger players, who are under cost control, its the way to go.
The Pirates would have had to pay 2+ million dollars to get a kid like Tim Alderson (if that player was even available) in the draft.
Instead, you trade the large contract of Freddie Sanchez to get Alderson, whom the Giants have already paid the bonus to when he was drafted.
Its really the only way the Pirates can rebuild.
Granted, its unpopular. However, if they hit on some of these kids, they have a young, excited, talented and cost controlled team for fans to watch starting in 2011, instead of the bad, boring and expensive team they had coming into this season.
Cokey? Blow?
Okay, you’re saying his to have another lefty to back up Coke. Not that you’re striving for a weak, soft underbelly.
Gotcha.
Yup, SJ, you are right. Because the system does not agree with your eyes regarding one player, it should be thrown out. That makes sense. Or….. Tyler and yourself misunderstand what UZR is trying to say and what anyone claims that it says.
GB same thing was said about Matt Thorton. You know being a back up LH specialist wouldn’t be bad for Dunn in 09′.
The baseball draft has become such a ball of snakes that it’s difficult to come up with some sort of solution. Personally, I like competition and a level playing field so I would favor a mandatory draft. Boras holding up the Nationals for some sort of astronomical payout is just bad business for both MLB and the player involved. It needs to be fixed sooner rather than later. Then as a Yankee fan I’m tickled that the Yankees were able to draft a top end OF. An OF with an arm that can run, what a novel idea. What will they think of next.
Signing Tazawa > or < signing a first round pick. Hard to cap a pick when no cap on international players. NBA has international rights in the draft itself so they are slotted too.
I get where Boras is coming from, but I don’t know that Strasborg should be treated like a free agent pitcher. There were other players in the past who were able to get to the majors quickly, and they never saw the kind of money Boras is seeking.
$12-13m is a little short? (by 3x)
“At some point, it becomes a zero sum game Cash.
When you aren’t competitive at the ML level, and have a lot of bad contracts, if you can turn those guys into talented younger players, who are under cost control, its the way to go.
The Pirates would have had to pay 2+ million dollars to get a kid like Tim Alderson (if that player was even available) in the draft.
Instead, you trade the large contract of Freddie Sanchez to get Alderson, whom the Giants have already paid the bonus to when he was drafted.
Its really the only way the Pirates can rebuild.
Granted, its unpopular. However, if they hit on some of these kids, they have a young, excited, talented and cost controlled team for fans to watch starting in 2011, instead of the bad, boring and expensive team they had coming into this season.”
SJ,
As a Yankee fan I understand what the Pirates are doing, but if I was a fan of the Pirates, I would have a difficult time spending my hard-earned money watching the major leage club after patiently waiting for almost 20 years to see another playoff team and during that time, even built them a new stadium with public funds.
Dunn > Marte
Give Dunn some reps as a lefty down the stretch and if he does well, add him to the postseason rooster
No, it makes no sense to have a metric that has such wildly off the wall readings on defensive player skills.
It was the way last year with certain players.
Its a bad metric. Almost everybody in baseball agrees its a bad metric.
Like catchers ERA, its a stat that nobody in the game uses to measure defensive skills.
Only statheads, who can’t believe someone would reject something so inconsistent in its readings, get upset about folks criticizing UZR.
Any metric that measure Mark Teixeira and Robbie Cano (who is not mentioned in Tyler’s story) as “average” or even “negative” defenders, is a metric not worth the time and space its given.
Giants preseason game tonight on ESPN
GrouchoNYY
August 17th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
“Off Topic, but I think the NYY need another LHP in the pen for the post season. Coke can’t do it all by himself. Would be nice if the team could get a look at Dunn or Kroenke (sp?)but they’d have to be called up before 9/1 in order to be playoff eligible so that’s not going to happen.”
===
Not exactly. In reality, any pitcher on the 40 man roster can be made eligible for the playoffs by putting another pitcher (from the 40 man) on the dl. You then fill that slot.
KROD was a September call up for LA in 2002 but was able to pitch in the playoffs.
Marte, Wang, and Garcia give the Yankees plenty of options.
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He would have to replace a player on the 25 man roster that was put on the DL. If they DL’d, for example Coke on 5 or 6 September and Dunn wasn’t activated until that day. NYY would have to petition MLB to have Dunn put on the post season roster. That hasn’t changed in the last 50 or so years.
NYY traded for Pete Ramos on Sep 1964. When the Yanks petitioned MLB to have Ramos on the post season roster to replace the injured Tony Kubek, they were turned down. The only player they were allowed to put on the roster was the totally useless Mike Hegan, who clearly was not ready for ML baseball.
“In essence, they lose a season of development time and that’s not right.”
I agree with that wholeheartedly. It just does not make sense from a league or team standpoint either. In fact it creates a situation where players seem over-hyped when in actuality they were not given a fair opportunity to get started.
Similar to the development of NFL players who hold out of camp (granted that’s often wholly the players fault). Those players are often labeled “busts” but then the following season or late in season one he starts to look like the expected value.
Rays not signing their top two picks this year. Will the Rays and Sox be blown up this offseason if they both miss the playoffs????
Rays – Crawford traded before free agency and option money? BJ Upton another bad year, keep him or move him? Kazmir does he still have value?
Sox – Potentially need 2-3 starting pitchers, VTek, Papi, Drew, Lowell, all old and sinking, do you spend big money in free agnecy or make some trades and start again? To me they are at the point the Yankees were years back, plugging holes to stay afloat. Minor league talent getting thin.
Official “Guess the Line Up” announcement.
After much consideration, I have determined that August 31, 2009 will be the final round of GTLU for the 2009 season. I make this decision for a few reasons:
1) With the September call ups and expanded rosters, the game will become nearly impossible. Joe Girardi will have endless options to elude us.
2) I have upcoming deadlines at work and it will be harder to keep going as they approach.
I am letting you all know now with fair two week notice so that you may give it your best efforts to move up the standings and become the “Ultimate Line Up Guesser”. Thank you all for playing with me. And good luck!!!!
“Giants preseason game tonight on ESPN”
BALLINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN’
It’s time for another thrilling round of “Guess the Line Up”!!!!!!
Please post your line ups to me here (or any new threads) until 6:30pm. Please make sure you post 9 players and positions. Also, make sure your name is on the list of line ups submitted when I post it. No revisions are allowed!
Cash,
No question about it.
The problem is, the current regime has had to clean up the Dave Littlefield mess and to do so, they are going to have to make sime very unpopular moves.
I certainly understand Pirates fans frustration with the direction of the franchise. Its understandable.
They also know though how bad Dave Littlefield hurt the franchise and that rebuilding it is going to take time and some luck. The luck being some of these kids they acquire turn out to be good major league players.
August 25 would be the 2 year annniversary of Neal Huntington being hired as Pirates GM.
He has them on the right track. Hopefully, he gets some positive results in the next year so the fan can see some progress.
Really? You know what the teams are using? Because I can bet teams like Seattle, Boston, Cleveland, and Oakland are almost certainly using some variation of the metric. As those who created it would tell you, 130 games is not an incredibly huge sample, and you need to look at the stat within the context of the player’s overall record. Using an example I have seen elsewhere, I am not sure why fans can believe that a “30 home run” guy will range from 20-40 homers given the season, but can’t fathom that a +5 defender can range from -3 to +10.
And we were just discussing Tex’s reluctance to make the lob to 1st during the Mitre game.
Wow. Lace and Stiletto got replaced by an ESPN advertisement/game!
Fun little game… but you can’t get happy hour deals at ESPN ….
jeter 6
damon 7
tex 3
alex 5
posada x
cano 4
swisher 9
cabrera 8
molina 2
Damon DH
Jeter SS
Teixeria 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Hinske LF
Cabrera CF
Jeter ss
Damon dh
Teixeira 1b
Rodriguez 3b
Posada c
Swisher rf
Cano 2b
Cabrera cf
Hairston lf
Mr. I have the most hits as a SS EVER – SS
Damon – LF
Tex – 1b
Alex – 3b
Jorge – DH
Swish – RF
Cano – 2B
Melky – CF
Molina – C
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Teixeria 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Cabrera CF
Pena 3B
You need some sort of defensive stats to rate players. But how Teix can go from a plus ten last year to a minus this year really blows my mind. Once, SS and 2B were touted by the number of DPs turned, one hundred was the Gold Standard, now you never hear of it. Somehow Momma’s basement dwellers have suborned us. Alphabet soup stats, rule. Now I’m being told that defense only counts half of offense, huh? A penny saved is a penny earned where I come from. If a team prevents a run they don’t need to score two to win.
Yes, I know what the teams are using.
I’ve seen numerous arbitration briefs in the last two years and there hasn’t been a single one that has used UZR on either the player or team side in their case briefs. Not one.
Its not a metric teams are using to determine one’s defensive skills because its not accurate.
That’s a good pickup for the Tigers – can’t understand why that wasn’t blocked. I think I’d rather have Huff on the Orioles than on the Tigers as we won’t be potentially facing the Orioles in the post-season
UZR is not being used in arbitration because it is complicated and not universally accepted, a point that will make it difficult to use in that setting. This does not mean teams are not using it to evaluate players. As I said before, at least those 4 teams are almost certainly using UZR or a metric developed in house that is similar to it (with different weights).
Damon LF
Swisher RF
Teixeria 1B
Rodriguez DH
Cano 2B
Hairston 3B
Cabrera CF
Pena SS
Molina C
Joe will use Tomko starting to his advantage and rest multiple guys because we can beat Tomko with our C lineup…
Boston would have claimed Huff but they have no spot for him. They have enough 1B/DH types.
“I am not sure why fans can believe that a “30 home run” guy will range from 20-40 homers given the season, but can’t fathom that a +5 defender can range from -3 to +10.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_validity
A 20 HR guy is still good. A -3 guy is – by definition – not good.
Scale development for metrics is very difficult.
This team better score a ton of runs for AJ tonight. Tomko is awful.
I want AJ to get his 11th win. Come on offense, let him have a nice easy win like 12-2 or something.
Erica,
My line-up is:
Jeter DH
Damon LF
Tex 1B
Alex 3B
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Melky CF
Pena SS
Thanks again for hosting.
I never win GTLU; I never win Mega either, but that doesn’t stop me from playing. So, I might as well try my luck at this as well.
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Teixeria 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Cabrera CF
Hairston 3B
Slotting of any kind is a bad idea in my opinion.
The NBA’s policy of hard slotting would never work in the MLB. The majority of players drafted in the NBA make it into the league immediately. The vast majority of players drafted in MLB never make it to the majors and if they do it takes years. They should be paid as much as they can get in a free market right off the bat.
In fact, the entire idea of a draft is somewhat silly. International free agents have an unfair advantage over American players. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a player sue MLB for forcing them to work in a certain state, etc.
I do not have any clue what UZR is, but I think it’s a shame that baseball has to be reduced to a mathematical formula conceived by people spending all day at their computers. I have two eyes (four, with my glasses) and I can very well see how fantastic a first baseman Tex is. How can you not? Why take the game out of the game by just looking at ridiculous graphs and charts? You might as well play computerized baseball. For over a hundred years, people trusted their own eyes as far as judging players ..I think that’s a tradition we should continue.
Huff wasn’t blocked because the teams in front of the Tigers aren’t contenders, and the Tigers themselves are probably in the middle of the pack, as they are barely above .500.
Don’t underestimate Tomko. Guys that leave their former teams with an ax to grind often dig deep for something extra when facing them. Look at how well Pavano has pitched against us. Tomko may not be the push over that we are all expecting.
Rockks, I’d love to get AJ a win tonight, too…..more importantly, the team. We haven’t had all that many rocking chair games – it would be nice if we could have one tonight. Of course, watch Tomko pull a Pavano, lol
UZR is not being used in arbitration cases not because its complicated. Its because its unreliable.
Teams use more complicated statistical analysis in other areas of the game in arbitration hearings than UZR. They don’t use UZR because its not an accurate reading of defensive skill.
Teams are developing their own in house systems for measuring defensive skill. Most of them are still in the introductory stages.
No team in the postseason is going to be easy.
That was a nice pickup by the Tigers, They needed some lefty pop in the worst way.
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Tex 1B
A Rod 3B
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Hinske DH
Cabrera CF
There’s not doubt about it, defensive metrics are not very reliable. At least the ones available during the season. +/- is more widely accepted I think.
Unfortunately, ZR and UZR are the only (easily accessible) ways we can arbitrarily evaluable defense. Yes they are flawed but they have their uses.
ok so tomko on the mound – here we go … thanks erica
1. jeter ss
2. damon lf
3. tex 1b
4. arod 3b
5. cano 2b
6. posada c
7. swisher rf
8. hinske dh
9. melky cf
CB, that is sort of missing the point of what I said. Use, if you want, Robbie Cano’s 2008 season, for most of his offensive stats. He went from above average to below average to above average. And the real point I wanted to make, which probably got lost, is that no one claims UZR is perfectly accurate. No one. It is good to use as a guideline, not as an exact science, especially in a small sample.
Remember Laura- you’ve got to be in it to win it!
Jeter ss
Damon DH
Texeira 1st
ARod 3rd
Posada C
Cano 2nd
Swish rf
Hairston lf
Cabrera cf
UZR is accurate.
The concern is it’s validity.
Those are two very different things in statistics and measurement science.
Laura,
I’m actually expecting Tomko to pitch well tonight. He has an axe to grind, none of our hitters have faced him very much, and the players might just think they can show up and kill him and have lazy ABs against him and give him free outs.
betsy,
You realize that everyone who uses advanced statistics also watch the games right? Many people like stats, it increases the enjoyment of baseball for a lot of fans.
Jeter ss
Damon dh
Tex 1b
ARod 3b
Posada c
Swisher rf
Cano 2b
Hairston lf
Cabrera cf
Tomko should be tailor made for us.
He is not a soft tosser who can hit his spots (we’ve struggled against those types). He isin’t some crafty pitcher with good offspeed stuff, He throws mid 90s and it is as straight as a string, right down the middle.
That being said, he’ll probably have a 6 IP, 3 ER type start against us.
Not all baseball stat guy just sits at his computer all and forms his opinions… talk about a hyperbolic generalization…
CB,
How can you explain Cano’s UZR given that he has a lot of range for a 2B? That seems like an inaccuracy to me.
Ok, CB, because you seem to enjoy playing semantics, what I meant by inaccurate is that even the creators of the stat will tell you that in small samples, the data will often have measurement errors that tend to even out over time. Because of that, in smaller samples, UZR is not entirely reliable. I would not use it to say a defender with a +4 is better than a +2. But I will use it to tell me that a +8 is better than a +1, for example.
Here’s who is in “Guess the Line Up” so far. Submissions until 6:30:
Henner
Joe
IDCWYT
NYY626
DTX99
Gabe
Fran
Laura
L to the 2nd
Andrew33
Bronx Jeers
Erica-
Jeter – SS
Damon – lf
Tex – 1b
Arod – dh
Posada – C
Swisher – Rf
Cano – 2b
Hairston – 3b
Cabrera – cf
Tomko isin’t going to beat us because he has an “axe to grind”. What, is he suddenly going to stop throwing straight fastballs because he wants to prove something?
If he beats us, it is because we went up there with no plan and just hacked away at his slop and gave him free outs and he settled in.
I love numbers, but I don’t understand a lot of the stats.
If I were a front office person, and my job was to evaluate a player for trade or free agency, I’d watch film. Lots and lots of film. No stat’s going to tell you if a player hustles down the line. Charges the ball from the outfield. If a CS was a busted hit and run. How much gas a guy has left in the tank playing the outfield. How good their eye is at the plate.
Stats are good and form an excellent baseline, but the ocular test should be one of the decisive factor.
Got it Ramey!!!
Did you accept the job yet?!?!
In regards to the Yankees “breaking the bank” to sign draft picks” lets remember that even with the signing of CC, AJ and Tex, the Yankees major league payroll is down ~$20 million this year vs last year. The Yanks have simply decided that, in the post-steroids era, prospects are have better value than veterans…at least for a few years.
Is there a GG stat?
“I’m actually expecting Tomko to pitch well tonight. ”
Here’s hoping AJ pitches better.
m,
Every team now employs statistical analysis departments. It is a useful tool.
You are right though. Baseball is more than just a game of numbers.
You use stats to assist, and not to make the ultimate determination, of how you evaluate players. I think some people do the opposite (mostly fans, not teams) and that’s when you get into disagreements as to how to properly evaluate players.
Teams do watch a ton of tape in baseball on draft eligible and minor league players these days. Its become more like football in that respect.
Statistical analysis definitely has an important place in the game. Its how you use the numbers that determines whether or not you use the information correctly.
Slotting would make it an all college draft after the first few picks. They should just leave it like it is and get rid of the commissioner’s delays. They haven’t been bargained and they do waste time for kids and teams.
Why do so many of you start your line-up with:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Has JD led off one game that Jeter has started?
Uncle Ellsworth
August 17th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Why do so many of you start your line-up with:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Has JD led off one game that Jeter has started?
——————–
I was wondering the same thing
Hey SJ, did your nephew get a “slot” as well by any chance?
Vader ZD
August 17th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Tomko isin’t going to beat us because he has an “axe to grind”. What, is he suddenly going to stop throwing straight fastballs because he wants to prove something?
*******************
yeah but when you throw 99 like tomko you can afford to throw it straight
Jeter ss
Damon dh
Teixeira 1b
Rodriguez3b
Posada c
Swisher rf
Cano 2b
Hairston lf
Cabrera cf
Uncle E-
That makes me scratch my head everytime
He got 50K over slot when he signed.
Erica-
not yet. I’m still wishy washy about it. I really should just stop weighing the pros and cons and jump at it. But, I never do things without analyzing them ad nauseum
Tomko throw 99? Huh.
SJ,
Of course you can’t ignore the stats. They are what they are.
But there are things that can’t be measured by stats. Yes, I’m invoking the dreaded “intangibles”.
I just think that when people argue over who’s the better player, they’ll throw out a stat, and say, “Ha! I’m right!”, when that’s not always the case.
I blame fantasy baseball for the overemphasis and overdependence on stats. Everyone’s an expert it seems.
Ramey-
Seriously. If I were you I would jump. It’s a hard field to get your foot in the door without any experience. If someone is offering you the experience, you have to take it
Uncle Ellsworth
August 17th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Why do so many of you start your line-up with:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Has JD led off one game that Jeter has started?
————————————————————
Actually, I think he has, but, not more than twice. I can’t remember the teams or pitchers, but, I think it was a matchup thing, early in the season, before Rodriguez returned.
Jeter ss
Damon dh
Teixeira 1b
Rodriguez 3b
Posada c
Swisher rf
Cano 2b
Cabrera cf
Hairston lf
Damn that’s cool, best of wishes to you and your nephew man.
Must be a real blessing, I wish I could get a job that involved baseball.
Erica / Rishi
seems to me that is the easy part of the game.
If they are playing
Jeter
Damon
Tex
Alex (positions are a different story)
I use stats all the time for guidelines. Very handy tools. I would reccommend Fangraphs to anyone. Where I run into problems are situations that I’ve seen with Swisher. Man on second with one out. He will pass up a pitch down the middle and work a walk. Now he has padded his OBP which is a plus. I consider this a failure or negative because theoretically he has set up a double play and the next hitter might not get as good a pitch to hit. But then with Swisher he will take a mighty hack going for the low percentage HR when the indicated is a smooth swing for a single. Baseball is a complex game, you can’t use simple metrics to evaluate it.
Erica-
You are absolutely right. Somebody needs to take a shovel to the back of my head to knock the sense into me
Jeter SS
Damon DH
Tex 1B
ARod 3B
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Hairston LF
Cabrera CF
That’s fine, Patrick, but stats like those graphs/charts etc………are not for me and if they say that Tex is only an average 1B, then they are just wrong.
Uncle Ellsworth
August 17th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Erica / Rishi
seems to me that is the easy part of the game.
If they are playing
Jeter
Damon
Tex
Alex (positions are a different story)
*****
97% of the submissions I get start that way, unless they feel like A-Rod is due for a day off. Sometimes they DH him.
I am just pleasently surprised no one started Matsui so far yet tonight. But I am breaking my own rules. I don’t normally comment on the game in progress
“Why do so many of you start your line-up with: Damon LF Jeter SS”
Because most people like myself are lazy and don’t write the lineup from scratch. We copy what someone else wrote and then tweak it. Apparently, who ever it is that we copied from puts Damon first and we miss it.
Erica, here is my revised lineup. Sorry for the confusion.
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeria 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Cabrera CF
Hairston 3B
Ramey – Traded his Girlfriend to the Pirates for a PTBNL
August 17th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Erica-
You are absolutely right. Somebody needs to take a shovel to the back of my head to knock the sense into me
****
It’s a tough job but… I WILL! I WILL!
m,
Exactly. Its the classic Derek Jeter argument.
People roll their eyes when you talk about Jeter’s intangibles. However, if you watch him everyday, you see why he’s a great player and intangibles do play a role.
I also see intangibles in Tex that makes him a great player. For example, the other infielders have no hesitation throwing the ball to him because they know he’s going to make a play.
There isn’t any waiting for him to get into position to receive a throw or any concern about throwing it to a certain spot to make it easier for him to catch a throw.
Which, BTW, has been the case for most of the last 7 seasons at first base.
Those are intangibles and they can’t be measured through statistical analysis. Its something you have to use your eyes to see and note.
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teix 1B
Rodriguez DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Hairston 3B
Cabrera CF
People who watch all the Yankee games can see what a great fielder Tex is. We don’t need no stinkin’ system.
“How can you explain Cano’s UZR given that he has a lot of range for a 2B? That seems like an inaccuracy to me.”
There are a number of technical issues at play here that are fundamentals related to UZR. I’ll leave those aside.
Personally, I think the biggest issue with UZR is that there isn’t enough data within a season for it to produce stable results.
That’s why there is so often such large variance in season to season results.
Fielders actually don’t get that many chances even across one season.
So if even a few of those are miscategorized or if a few things happen by chance then that can translate into a big problem.
Conversely, the metric doesn’t take into account the qualitative nature of the batted ball explicitly and that a real issue. Without Hit F/X you can’t do it – but that doesn’t make it less of a problem. So it might just be that the fielder got harder than average chances. Even at the margins that makes a difference.
By defensive metrics Adam Jones has been a horrible defensive player this year. He’s on pace to be 12 runs worse than average.
Last year he was great. Jones is on pace to be 23 runs worse defensively this year than last. 23 runs. That’s over 2 WAR worse.
Zone rating has him showing a similar drop. If you look at the raw zone rating data I think Jones has made like 7 or 8 fewer plays than average. Something like that.
7-8 plays just isn’t that much and is far too subject to variations in the difficulty of making the play and/or random chance.
This year with Cano my hunch is that a lot of this has to do with how horrible Wang was. Wang was giving up one rocket after another – he was giving up contact that was of significantly higher velocity than was normal.
I think Tex and Cano probably wound up getting a number of very hard chances that were in zone that were ruled makable plays but probably weren’t.
That might not be all of it but I think that might be the issue.
And I think that might be coming into play with Tex as well.
After his last outing with Jorge, Girardi will use Molina this time with AJ.
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Teixeira 1B
ARod 3B
Posada DH
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Cabrera CF
Molina C
Laura-
I accept the revision, but only because I know for a fact you knew better
SJ,
lol. Great example using Jeter. Such an obvious one, too. Don’t know how I missed it. He would be the most overrated player statistically speaking, but you’ll hear the question, “Would you start a team with Jeter or….?”. Ask any GM if they wouldn’t take Jeter and his range to the left right now. Maybe the Phillies and the Rockies would pass, but he’d still be a great asset to any team.
Jeter SS
Damon dh
tex 1b
Arod 3b
Posada C
Swisher rf
Cano 2b
Melky CF
Hairston lf
Erica, I re-sent my email from last night and also e-mailed Pete to ok giving my email to you. I don’t know why none of my e-mails are going through, so hopefully we’ll have better luck if you e-mail me……
“Ok, CB, because you seem to enjoy playing semantics, what I meant by inaccurate is that even the creators of the stat will tell you that in small samples”
Did you click on that link?
If you think issues of psychometric methodology are simply “semantics”‘ then I’m not sure what to say.
Zed,
Molina is CC’s personal catcher. Don’t think he will play tonight, but tomorrow.
Betsy!!
I did get your e-mail!!!! LOL.
I didn’t recognize the address and it looked “fishy” so I deleted it without opening it.
Okay, we are great now!! Sorry about that!!
If you can see someone’s intangibles then doesn’t that make them tangibles
New thread
NO NEW LINE UPS HERE
Cano is great going to his right maybe the best second basemen in baseball at that. He has a strong arm and turns difficult doubleplays and makes it look easy. He isn’t as great going to his left thats what probably effects his UZR.
Teixeira is great at scoping balls from the dirt. He has a very strong and accurate arm. He doesn’t have the best range though.
UZR is a relative statistic. It measures a fielder against other players at his position to determine how many more or fewer runs his fielding is responsible for than the average fielder at his position.
How can you tell what a player’s UZR rating ought to be even by watching that player play all season? You’d need to watch all the other fielders at the position all season too, to make a judgment. And that judgment could be just as flawed as UZR may be.
In fact, that’s loosely speaking what scouts do. They make judgments about fielding, and like UZR they are right some of the time and wrong some of the time.
The question is, in evaluating players, is the statistic or the scout right more often? In the case of fielding, how would we know?
However, most of us don’t have a team of scouts at our side, giving us fielding judgments. So we use UZR as a crutch to help form judgments. It may be wrong some of the time, but just as having a team of scouts at your side would be a helpful thing, having UZR to look at is a helpful thing too.
Erica, my lineup:
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Tex 1B
Arod DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Cabrera CF
Hairston 3B
It would be interesting to see what players would chose to start a team, assumming that it was players in the last 30 years and no later than two years into their ML career. Would you take an outfielder like Griffey or Bonds or a middle infielder like Jeter or Rodriguez, a corner infielder like Schmidt, Pujols or catcher like Piazza or Ivan Rodriguez or a pitcher like Johnson, Maddux or Clemens?
players ***people ***would chose to start a team
Not all baseball stat guy just sits at his computer all and forms his opinions… talk about a hyperbolic generalization…
—————-
Of course it is – I just like the mental picture – watering the plastic flowers et al.
Find a stats guy that doesn’t value Dunn highly. If and until they come up with a rating for situational hitting and fielding all this is verbiage.
m is right, it’s fantasy baseball.
I once lost an argument on which team was older – the Yankees or the Angels – because NY was in an earlier time zone. That was more valid.
CB
That was an excellent take on Wang’s infuence on Cano and Teix fielding numbers.
So in assessing for UZR purposes whether or not a play can be made in a zone, how hard the ball is hit is ignored? Surely that can’t be the way it’s done.
Erica, lol -I don’t blame you -I should have put something mentioning this board in the subject line. “Meeting up” definitely sounds like a spam……
Erica- 1st time playing but ill give it a shot!
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Tex 1B
Arod 3B
Posada C
Swisher RF
Cano 2B
Hinske DH
The Melk Man CF