That’s a good point there, CB
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CB, one of our more astute readers, made this point about Phil Hughes having pitched only 5.2 innings this month:
“Hughes has been an important piece to the pen’s revitalization. But his actual impact on games is, unfortunately, much, much less than is frequently perceived. … There’s this die-hard belief that the 8th inning is spectacularly important and excruciatingly difficult to pitch, so a disproportionate amount of credit for the revitalization of the pen is given to “stabilizing the set up role, etc.” The pen is better now primarily because the starters given them length.”
Bingo!
People got all fired up about Joba being in the pen and now it’s Hughes. The reality is the Yankees have been on a roll with Hughes playing essentially a cameo role.
The “set-up guy” is perhaps the 15th or 16th most important player on a well-balanced team. Every player in the lineup, the five starters and the closer impact the game more.
The bottom line is this: good starters are very difficult to obtain or develop. Pitchers who can throw in the 8th inning are much, much easier to find. It would be a ridiculous waste of money, effort and talent to use Joba or Phil in that role. The Yankees realize that.
Phil will be standing in the bullpen next to A.J., CC, Joba and Andy on the first day of spring training next year. He’s a starter who, for now, was needed in the bullpen.
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Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
TRUTH
David Robertson is showing some fortitude. Thats an 8th inning guy. Coke can be good when he is on his game, boom 8th inning guy. Aceves is wily, 8th inning!
Melancon might come up in sept and dazzle, THE 8TH!!
Hughes to the rotation in 2010 and no buts about it.
How is pitching the 9th inning with a lead any different than the 8th? Ace has been the most important guy out of the pen for the Yanks.
Mike Francesca’s head is spinning somewhere…he would so hand wave these stats
Well said CB and PA…..
Hey, CB – you got a shout out, congrats!
Phil (and Joba) also have the great opportunity to learn at the feet of savy vets like CC, Andy and AJ…….that is important. I know AJ has said that when he was in Florida, the rotation was a bunch of kids and that he’d wished they could have had some veteran leadership to guide them. Well, Phil, Joba, Robertson – they have really good guys they can learn from and I hope they soak up everything they can. One day, they can pass down their wisdom to other youngsters just coming up.
Can’t the same thing be said about pitching in the 9th?
Therefore, where does Mo Rank — 14th?
Andy’s gonna be back, huh? If that’s the truth, It won’t be because he gets all wishy-washy about his contract this offseason.
CB!!!! Nice pat on the back from the Boss!
Word
This thought isn’t original with me – I saw it over on River Ave. Blues – but there’s an argument, with the Yanks having wrapped up the division and safe for the playoffs, that Hughes ought to be eased back into the starting rotation this year in order to build up his innings and make him more effective in a starting role next year. Hughes could always go back to the pen for the playoffs.
Next year the Yanks will have very little depth in starting pitching, and a low innings limit on Hughes – likely the case if Hughes remains in the pen this year – will be a problem.
I know there’s arguments on the other side, but given where the Yanks are now perhaps the best thing they could do would be to aim Hughes toward the starting job next year.
Pete,
I refresh the blog home page and… that was a surprise.Thanks, kindly.
It’s a point that many others here – including you yourself have made many times in the past. Of all the beat reporters for the Yankees you’ve been the most clear minded about this issue going all the way back to the endless Joba discussions.
If the guys in the pen are all that critical to a team that team is in a lot of trouble because it means the starting staff is not doing it’s job.
Respectfully disagree-
Over the long-haul of a season, sure that may be accurate- but when you come down to a short series, I would say that the 8th inning (really setup) guy becomes probably the 9th or 10th most important player on a team for the series and probably 5th or 6th most important player that night-
The ability to shorten games has proven to be essential in virtually every World Series champion in recent history- (save the Whitesox, who simply left their starters in)
“Phil will be standing in the bullpen next to A.J., CC, Joba and Andy on the first day of spring training next year.”
- Don’t forget that Cuban defector, Chapman…
Jerry, and your point about Ohlendorf having 11 wins and AJ having 10 is? That Ohlendorf is a better pitcher? That he’s having a better season? I don’t think so……
Well done… well said… my only question… and I think its legit… who’s the #4 guy if Andy hangs it up?
The Yanks have ruined two pitchers this year, Hughes and Joba.
Excellent point made by CB and Pete. But the fact is, you cant win without a good bullpen. I disagree that the closer and the 2 or 3 pitchers that set him up rank in the lower 3rd of the roster. In today’s NY Times Jose Molina had this to say on the subject:
““Bullpens win a lot of championships,” said the backup catcher Jose Molina, who played on the Angels’ 2002 title team. “With Anaheim, we just asked our starting pitchers to give us five, because then we had Brendan Donnelly, Scot Shields, Ben Weber, K-Rod and Troy Percival at the end. The bullpen shuts everybody down and puts your team in position to win.”
Ask Phil Coke about coming into games in save situations! lol
One of the funniest interviews I’ve ever heard a player give to Suzyn Waldman was Coke the day after he got his first major league save.
He talked about how his emotions completely took over his body and he could barely feel the ball coming out of his hand.
He also talked about how the difference between pitching in the 8th inning and in the 9th in a save situation was “night and day”.
While it was funny to listen to, it also reinforced just how good Mariano Rivera is to be able to handle the 9th inning day after day, regardless of results.
Personally, I’d like to see more teams use their better young arms in the bullpen to start their careers.
While it may not be great for their innings limits, it sure as hell is great for their confidence and belief they can attack hitters and succeed at the big league level.
“Back in the day”, pitchers were weened in the bullpen (see Ron Guidry for example) prior to joining the rotation.
Going back to that philosophy with one or two of your better arms each year can serve two purposes. It can help your parent club win and help that pitcher develop his skills/confidence.
I agree that Hughes as the 8th inning guy probably doesn’t even create 1 win more over Bruney, Robertson, or Melancon.
And I also don’t believe that Mo over Hughes is even one win improvement, if an improvement at all.
We overrate a lot of things.
Jeter is probably the most valuable player on this team because of the production he gives from the position that he gives it. Posada is close, as is Cano.
Everyone else is producing from positions that would have similar numbers if we just went out and signed a decent free agent
August 19th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
There’s a lot of talk about the job that Sabathia and Burnett have done at the head of the rotation this year, and it’s well deserved.
However, Pettitte is just 6 innings behind Burnett in the same amount of starts. He’s allowed 4 more earned runs than Burnett. Pettitte is 43rd in MLB in innings pitched and 19th in the AL. Not bad for somebody that was supposed to be the 4th or 5th starter. 19th in the league out of 70 AL starters and 43rd out of 160 starting spots in MLB.
Not bad for a $5.5 mil based salary.
Wave,
I think it was a mistake to put Hughes in the bullpen in the first place and I still do. I think he would have helped this team more as the 6th starter than as the eighth inning guy.
However, at this point it’s probably too late in the season to risk such a move. Also, when the Yanks reach the playoffs they only need 3-4 starters. I highly doubt Hughes would be one of those 4. The Yanks are going for the world series this year, they need Hughes as primary set-up man going into the playoffs.
If the 8th inning guy is so vitally important, then we should be able to name them. Quick, name the 8th inning guy on more than 5 other teams.
It’s the simple logic. Beyond CC being as good as he is, the games he starts gives the pen a breather each time he is out and makes him that much more valuable. Overwork even the best bullpens, they implode. It also gives you more options to mix and match when guys are rested. I will say it once again, the Red Sox only really started to falter when Wakefield went down and the reigns got turned over to the back of that rotation. Wakefield is their inning logger. How many games of late has Francona almost given up for a loss not wanting to overwork a tired pen? Leaving Traber in as long as he did and a couple of the guys out of the pen during the Yankees series is a prime example of that. Consistent starting pitching that gives quality start after quality start makes that pen that much stronger.
“Over the long-haul of a season, sure that may be accurate- but when you come down to a short series, I would say that the 8th inning (really setup) guy becomes probably the 9th or 10th most important player on a team for the series and probably 5th or 6th most important player that night-”
Joba was arguably the best pitcher on the yankees staff besides Mo in 2007 in the post season.
He pitched 3 innings in the series in total.
The value of a relief pitcher depends on the value being generated by the starting staff.
That doesn’t change in the post season.
Are we talking about the umpire or the poster ?
Drive 4-5, Molina was talkiing about the bullpen as a collective. As a group, they pitch 3 innings a night, so they are plenty valuable. But one reliever individually does not have that much value.
Yankees were lost in the pen with no one to turn to other than Mo until Hughes stepped it up. Calling up Aceves was the other key. Once those guys added stability suddenly Coke and Robertson and others began to ease their way into the mix.
And on top of it, even though Hughes should be a starter, this consistent success against MLB hitters will add a ton of confidence to build from for him going forward. He struggled for a while, but he has simply dominated batters out of the pen and has shown the control he exhibited in the minors to earn him the recognition he got as the best minor league pitcher in all of baseball.
Phranchise- it’s a good point, but they also just dealt away Masterson, who most likely would have been used in that scenario-
Pete this was a good post but it was all in vain my friend. You know that New Yorkers are in love with the “Eighth Inning Guy” and the “Replacement For Mo”. You will never convince some people that Hughes and Joba are better utilized in the rotation.
Patrick-
I don’t believe there’s much risk in moving Hughes back into the rotation. A lot of people think there is, because Joba was hurt last year for a while, but who knows why Joba was hurt and one instance with Joba is meaningless as regard Hughes anyway.
Wave,
While in theory it’s a good idea to move Hughes back in practice there’s no way I’d take that risk.
They are so close to being a World Series Championship caliber club.
You can’t take any risks with Hughes coming down with a sore shoulder or tired arm prior to the playoffs.
He’ll just need to go pitch winter ball after he’s done with the parade through the canyon of heroes (knock on wood…)
“The Yanks have ruined two pitchers this year, Hughes and Joba.”
DO you live in Francesca’s basement???
I assumed Wang would be the fifth guy in our rotation next year.
The video of Melky’s HBP last night is funny. Does YES use a different feed than CSN or was I in the kitchen getting caffeine when they showed the bench reaction?
Some may think a tie game in the 6th inning is no time for the team to be laughing and joking but I like the relaxed atmosphere. Seen too much of everyone sitting on the bench staring straight ahead and playing tight in recent years.
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com.....p;c_id=nyy
The Phil Coke interview SJ is referring to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xzJG2aFuG8
”Christina
Can’t the same thing be said about pitching in the 9th?
Therefore, where does Mo Rank — 14th?”
Agreed, i guess were in minority though…next time game is lost in 8th all need to check the board chaos ..hah! im curious how many games were lost this year( especially early year)
after the starter left with the lead…and ones Mo didnt lose…thats EVERY other loss!….
Also, Patrick, I was for leaving Hughes in the rotation and putting Wang on the dl. I was right, too, although for the wrong reasons perhaps.
Wave,
It’s possible that it’s just a coincidence that both Joba and Aceves came down with injuries after being moved from the bullpen to the rotation but I wouldn’t risk it.
CB,
Isn’t this the second time in like a week that Pete has quoted you? Impressive
CB-
Is it a risk, or a superstition?
Tommy H, that is a good point, but Masterson’s early success faded this year and he was not displaying the same results. All the scouts had him pegged as a reliever in the majors and that seems to be his best role. He got smoked in his first start for Cleveland. He has a 4.70 era. He is valuable just as Aceves is, but he will never be more than what he is I don’t think going forward. He will be around a long time though. Think Ramiro Mendoza’s impact, but then when he thought of himself as a starter.
NYY won’t figure on Wang being anymore than a mid-season emergency starter for the foreseeable future. They’ll want him back, but, aren’t going to make any plans for it. He’ll be one of those surprise gifts.
Wang is not going to be ready by Spring Training next year. He might come back at some point in 2010 but I wouldn’t really count on it, and I hope Cashman doesn’t count on it during the offseason and is aggressive in adding some starting pitching depth that’s at least a little better than Sergio Mitre.
“Also, Patrick, I was for leaving Hughes in the rotation and putting Wang on the dl. I was right, too, although for the wrong reasons perhaps.”
Yep I remember you and CB were both in favor of that. I agreed with you guys as well.
In a perfect world, Wang stays on the DL and doesn’t get called up prematurely. Hughes stays in the rotation until Wang is 100% ready and is then sent down to Scranton while Wang retakes his starting slot.
Oh well.
Someone should run this theory by Johan Santana. How many wins did he lose because the 7-8th inning guy couldn’t hold it down? At least 7 losses by the pen last year IIRC.
GVR-
Pretty sure Wang is out until at least the all star break next year.. if not longer..
Though it would be cool to see the yanks sign him to a two year deal… on the cheap.. and get him ready to rock in 2011… bit lets not get too ahead i suppose
IMO, Wang will be non-tendered and he’ll end up going to a club more willing than the Yanks to bet on his upside.
Considering two guys came up sore and lame after getting transitioned from the pen to the rotation in season, I would think one would err on the side of caution with Hughes.
At this point, by the time he’s stretched out to start, you maybe get 3 starts out of him the rest of the way.
Doesn’t seem worth it to me. Especially given that if he comes up lame, it hurts you in the post-season.
Rebecca,
LOL i swear Coke was traumatized that night, so funny, i always love his interviews.
“Is it a risk, or a superstition?”
Wave,
I think there is some risk there. I’m not even talking about a “sore” shoulder.
I’m more concerned about something like Hughes winding up in a dead arm period just as the post season starts due to the ramp up of his innings as a stater.
IMO, I would try to minimize all risks that could jeopardize a post season run.
That’s partly why I’m not all that upset with Hughes only throwing 5 innings out of the pen. Is it bad for his long term development? Sure. Does it help keep him fresh for the post season? Absolutely.
And that’s where they are right now – well set up to make a big run in the post season.
IMO it’s now a time with a young pitcher like Hughes you minimize risk as much as possible.
Aceves could go back to the rotation without as much concern because he’s still been throwing multiple innings.
Hughes hasn’t. I just think they’re too close to being formidable in the post season to start altering things.
What about Okajima when he first joined the BoSox? He was THE 8th inning guy, and was lights-out & made tremendous contribution. I don’t know if the assertion that “The “set-up guy” is perhaps the 15th or 16th most important player on a well-balanced team. Every player in the lineup, the five starters and the closer impact the game more” is always true.
betsy August 19th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Jerry, and your point about Ohlendorf having 11 wins and AJ having 10 is? That Ohlendorf is a better pitcher? That he’s having a better season? I don’t think so……
—
No, of course not… The title of Pete’s post was ‘A Few Numbers of Note” – so I was simply adding one of note, since he’s a former Yankee – and judging by how quick everyone was to comment, I guess it was…
ADam,
I didn’t realize he’d be out that long. Poor guy.
I also believe Wang has thrown his last pitch as a Yankee.
He will get non-tendered because they aren’t going to pay someone 5 million dollars who may not be ready to pitch until next July. Its a new economic baseball world in that regard.
I think another team will sign Wang for considerably less, rehab him, and hope for the best.
Its very difficult to comeback from 2 major shoulder surgeries in your career. That’s his battle right now.
I wish him the best and hope it all works out for him.
Rafael Soriano will be the 8th inning guy in 2010. Hughes will be in the rotation. My guess.
The fact that as the 8th inning guy, Hughes has pitched 5 2/3
innings in August while the Yankees have gone 13-4 tells you that there are much more important roles on a roster. It’s all about how the the starting pitching is performing.
“Considering two guys came up sore and lame after getting transitioned from the pen to the rotation in season, I would think one would err on the side of caution with Hughes.”
Many pitchers have been transitioned from the pen to starting within the same season without coming up lame as well. You can’t reason from the particular to the general in this case.
Right now, Hughes has 68 IP. He’s going to be lucky to get to 90 IP by the end of the year. Next year, people will have the same worries about Hughes getting hurt as a starter because he didn’t pitch enough this year.
Agreed, just saying that Masterson would have been in that spot rather than Traber, which I guess is me saying that I think a bullpen is more important than most of the posters here-
Anyone remember Tom Gordon in 2004? In 2007 we probably advance past the indians if Joba could have gotten through the midges-
Every manager in baseball, again talking about the postseason, talks about the value in shortening a game. But what do they know, right-
Where did Mariano rank in 1996 on the team in terms of value? He was 12th overall in the MVP voting… How about Krod in 2002? Okajima in 07? Madson in 2008?
Wave,
I should also add – even if Hughes were to go back to the rotation now he would still likely need to go to winter ball to make up innings.
There’s no way he’s going to get to 150 innings or so this regular season given that he has to transition back.
Either way he’s likely going to have to go to winter ball. If that’s the case just have him throw more innings there. And make sure he throws his change up a ton.
Wakefield was averaging 6.35 innings per start. He had 11 wins. Hard to simply replace a guy like that. It is the same as the length AJ has given this year. CC is at an obscene 6.84 innings per start.
The Red Sox second half collapse so far also coincides with Wakefield going down.
People complain about the Yankees 5th starter. What happens to a team that loses their 3 starter and can’t replace him ?
Post All Star game the Red Sox are sporting a 4.63 era. Yankees 3.56.
Ah Rebecca, now I remember this interview. “So how did you get that strikeout on Morneau” His response, “Well, I was mad at him.” He must be a lovely quote for these guys to get.
With Wang out the Yankees have no option but to bring back Pettitte. He is the one quality pitcher out there who can be kept on a year-to-year basis. They need him to stabilize the middle of the rotation while not blocking any of the younger arms long term.
The staff next year will probably be CC, AJ, Pettitte, Joba and Hughes with Aceves and Kennedy on reserve and young fireballer Aroldis Chapman in the minors.
PeterTheHut August 19th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
You don’t miss the bridge to Mo until you don’t have one.
Anybody who thinks what Hughes is doing isn’t extremely important doesn’t remember the first six weeks of the season.
—————-
The starters weren’t doing their job consistently the first six weeks of the season and had one of the worst ERAs in the majors during that span.
Sabathia struggled a bit. AJ had a couple of good starts and struggled. Ditto for Pettitte. Joba wasn’t anything special. Wang was a total disaster.
See a trend here?
So Pete, you are saying Pettitte will return next season? I hope so!
“Phil will be standing in the bullpen next to A.J., CC, Joba and Andy on the first day of spring training next year.”
- Don’t forget that Cuban defector, Chapman…
————————————————
I hope that you are just joking around. Wherever Aroldis Chapman signs he will need at least 2 years in the minor leagues. He is highly thought of because of his ability to occassionally hit 100 mph on the speed gun…but the truth of the matter is that Chapman has been very inconsistent in international competition. He has some flaws in his mechanics and needs a significant amount of seasoning.
Wang won’t be offered arbitration. If contracts are anything like this year where no one signed Sheets, he will be in limbo. Yankees can probably bring him back for a reduced deal with incentives if he wishes to stay. But at this point, two straight seasons lost, limited amount of pitches in the arsenal, Ben Sheets may actually be a less risky option than Wang now.
Big Wild Card implication weekend (for mid-August anyway)
Boston
Texas
Rays 3GB
Boston plays NY
Texas plays Rays
A sweep by Texas would put the Rays to rest
A sweep by Rays would put more pressure on Boston and Texas for the stretch run.
We just need to win a game or two…
SJ44 -
You and many others, including myself, have talked about the confidence factor with Hughes.
In one of the last threads, you contrasted Hughes’ confidence with Joba’s.
When Joba was coming out of the bullpen, he had that swagger.
In his better starts this season, he has shown that swagger.
However, Joba’s confidence seems to be of the “wax and wane” variety; it comes and goes.
My point is this. While it is fantastic that Phil Hughes has gained a great deal of confidence beginning with that Texas start and continuing through is many dominating outings from the bullpen, it is also true that confidence is not a constant and can be affected by recent events.
The larger concern, with Joba and Phil, is that they maintain their confidence even if they have a bad outing. That they can become confidence enough in their abilities to realize a bad day is just that: a bad day (or hitter, or inning). And then move on. That’s what defines greatness. The ability to know you’re good, but you’ll still suffer some roadbumps along the way.
Joba does infinitely better when no one is on base. And though he is pretty good at limiting damage, his demeanor does change when trying to work out of trouble. He seems to need to learn to brush aside that one at-bat – not quite forget the runner on base, but realize it’s just a blip on the screen.
Smoltz is a Cardinal.
Seasoning or not, Chapman will be a Yankee IMHO.
Well its not the end of the world if Hughes stays in the pen, I agree.
But I can foresee how annoyed I am going to be in the off-season by all the folks on here arguing that Hughes should be left in the pen, and one of the reasons they’ll raise is that Hughes didn’t pitch enough innings this year to risk moving him to a rotation slot next year.
And I’ll be even more annoyed if the Yanks won’t let Hughes throw more than 125-30 innings next year as a starter because he didn’t pitch enough this year.
Just reiterating what has been said countless times regarding Phil Hughes…His maturity and mental makeup has continued to impress me.
He has responded extremely well to criticism (especially from his own teammates), and at this point in their careers, could probably teach Joba Chamberlain a thing or two. He’s definitely earned a lot of respect in that clubhouse…something which will take him a long way.
Interesting to see a kid who grew up in the “safest city in the US” have so much “street smarts”. Good for Phil and good for the Yankees.
Mo,
I understand Molina’s point. It’s the same formula the ’90’s dynasty used. If the guy, be it Hughes setting up for Mo, Mo setting up Wettland or K Rod setting up Percival, is as dominating as the closer it takes a lot of stress off the game. Can anyone honestly say that they are as comfortable with a 1 run lead with Bruney pitching than Hughes?Just as the closer role isnt made for everyone, neither is the set up guy.
That being said, I am anxiously awaiting Hughes going back into the rotation. When that happens, someone else will have to step in and take over the important role Hughes played this year. It’s not a job that just anyone can handle. The Yanks are fortunate to have a number of candidates.
I agree they have to let Wang go but why can’t the Yankees then be the ones to re-sign him? Not out of the question, but he won’t be getting $ 5 Million from anyone.
Pettite certainly has made a strong case for another season. He’ll turn 38 on June 15th — the same day I turn 52 — so it’s not like he’s ancient.
Jerry, thanks for clarifying – of course, those are just numbers. AJ hasn’t gotten a ton of run support, so he’s been stuck on 10 for awhile now. Unfortunately, you see guys with great win totals and high ERAs who have those wins because their team scores for them……..it stinks, but it’s the luck of the draw. He’s pitching better now (much better) than he did last year (well, except for September, I guess), but he’s not going to end up with close to 18 wins. Ironic, since the Yankees this year are much better than the 2008 Jays. At this point, though I would love to see him get some wins, it doesn’t even matter. Personal stats are just that – everyone knows who’s pitched well and who hasn’t, regardless of wins. The important thing is to contribute to TEAM wins.
The concept being discussed here–that every inning is weighted the same in terms of significance, is completely wrong. It cannot be said decisively that a starter’s role is any more important than a reliever, simply because of the different strategic elements at play during a baseball game.
Watching a game, you realize this. The urgency placed on 7/8/9 innings is completely different than the 2nd innning and rightfully so. While I agree with PA on most things, saying that the 9th place batter is more significant than a pitcher brought in specifically to get a few crucial late-inning outs is incorrect.
We can talk about cumulative innings (ie Joba only pitched a couple innings in 2007 against CLE or hughes pitched only a few innings in a month, etc) but it strips away the significance-weighting to the innings. I’m sure most of us remember the couple innings Joba pitched in CLE more vividly than the many innings pitched by the starters. why is that? that alone proves the disporportionate significance of late innings in a baseball.
Starters don’t go 9 innings anymore. In fact, they don’t come close to 9 innings anymore. This isn’t the old days, when Bob Gibson would throw 245 pitches in a game.
Starters are extremely important. And yes, if they don’t give you length, the bullpen can get overworked. Duh. But the 8th inning setup role is vital, and extremely important. And becoming moreso. .. and it has little to do with how many innings the starter gives you. You still need a solid bridge to the closer nowadays, because the last think you need is pitching Mariano more than one inning at a time.
The setup man is crucial to a good team. Not overrated at all. A key cog to any modern championship team.
“But I can foresee how annoyed I am going to be in the off-season by all the folks on here arguing that Hughes should be left in the pen, and one of the reasons they’ll raise is that Hughes didn’t pitch enough innings this year to risk moving him to a rotation slot next year.
And I’ll be even more annoyed if the Yanks won’t let Hughes throw more than 125-30 innings next year as a starter because he didn’t pitch enough this year.”
That’s all true. Next year fans will be livid and we’ll hear endlessly about how the yankees are “babying” Hughes in the rotation.
People will say the yankees aren’t prioritizing “winning” next year by keeping hughes on an innings limit and won’t realize that the problem in 2010 was created when they prioritized winning in 2009.
But too many fans in NY think the world starts and ends in the 8th inning so they’re never going to be happy or show enough patience to let young arms transition to the rotation.
At this point Hughes could make what 9 starts. I can’t seen him averaging much over 5.5 innings per start. That’s roughly 50 additional innings. That’s not enough.
Any way you do it at this point hughes has to go to winter ball.
Yankees could bring Andy back, but think it will be the same game. CC, AJ and Joba are definites. Hughes likely. Gaudin and Aceves among the minor league guys as back ups. It would seem prudent to make Andy an offer while also throwing something in front of a variety of names:
John Lackey, Justin Duchscherer, Washburn, possibly Tim Hudson with the contract option?
Don’t love those guys, but Andy is 38. You are playing with fire that he stays healthy, just like Wakefield and Smoltz with the Sox this year.
Then there is the talented and often injured:
Wang, Bedard, Rich Harden, Benson, Sheets
Why can’t the Yankees non-tender Wang and then re-sign him for less? What a shame if that’s how Wang’s Yankee career ends, with that stupid pitch.
The Yankees need a #3 starter for next year – a rotation of CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes…? Hughes and Joba in the rotation, with the latter’s innings limits and growing pains, as well as Joba’s own growing pains, is a shaky proposition. I know Andy has pitched very well in the 2nd half – I just don’t know that I’d bring him back. He’d be a fine #4 or 5, but as a #3? I’m not sure about that.
Wave, it’s better that they don’t monkey around with Hughes this season and risk your annoyance in the future.
This is purely academic anyway, they are not going to transition Phil into the rotation in late August to get him two or three starts and then send him back to the pen. I think you know this.
Hughes will likely be capped at exactly what Joba is capped at this season. So we can predict the cap by seeing what they do with Joba.
I think Wang would want a fresh start somewhere else.
If you were Wang, what’s the point of signing with a team that non-tenders you, costing you millions of dollars, and helped contribute to your injury by mismanaging your rehab?
Its in his best interests to move on, and I think the Yankees want to do the same.
Shame it hasn’t worked out the way it should have worked out.
Perhaps each side can mend fences in the off-season.
If I was advising Wang though, I would advise him to find a new home.
“The concept being discussed here–that every inning is weighted the same in terms of significance, is completely wrong. It cannot be said decisively that a starter’s role is any more important than a reliever, simply because of the different strategic elements at play during a baseball game.”
Not at all. There are oodles of ways that you can incoporate inning specific leverage into the way you look at the issue.
And when you look at high leverage situations relievers still don’t come close to being as important as staters. It’s not even close.
If the starter blows the game there is close to zero urgency in the 7-8-9. The team is already buried.
The area where leverage is most egregiously discounted is actually in the earlier innings of a game.
Ah, Nick, you see right through me…
sorry if this is a repeat – popping in and out today:
Kennedy to get first game actionComment Email Print Share Associated Press
TAMPA, Fla. — New York Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy likely will pitch next month in the instructional league, his first game action since having surgery May 12 to remove an aneurysm from beneath his right biceps.
Kennedy said Wednesday it’s doubtful he will return for a minor league game this season. The right-hander is throwing fastballs and changeups during bullpen sessions and could be ready for a simulated game early next month.
The 24-year-old was pitching for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre when he experienced numbness in his pitching hand. He is set to pitch in the Arizona Fall League later this year.
Also, first-round draft pick Slade Heathcott, second-round pick J.R. Murphy, and 16-year old catching prospect Gary Sanchez took batting practice at the minor league complex. They are expected to play with the rookie level Gulf Coast League Yankees this season.
The Yanks are serious (and possibly right) about limiting Joba. If he is near his innings limit, why are they wasting him in potentially meaningless innings/games over the next month?
Pitching too infrequently is not good for him either as a current pitcher or in his long term development. Why not just put him in the bull pen for the rest of the season and have him and Hughes as starters next season.
Come the playoffs, they won’t need a 5th starter, but they will need good relief. Give him some time before the playoffs start to get used to coming out of the pen, and give him all the innings he can get.
Wouldn’t the combination of Hughes and Joba, et al, be more valuable if the goal is the World Series?
Scorpio
August 19th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Someone should run this theory by Johan Santana. How many wins did he lose because the 7-8th inning guy couldn’t hold it down? At least 7 losses by the pen last year IIRC.
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who pitches the 7 or 8 innings to get the lead to the pen so they can hold & win it for an inning or two wich is much harder becuse you need more pitches & are going trough lineups more than once.
Rob Neyer weighing in on that Jeter article discussed in the last thread…
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/swe.....-Tex-.html
Hughes will likely be capped at exactly what Joba is capped at this season. So we can predict the cap by seeing what they do with Joba.
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Hughes might be capped at a higher level than Joba because in 2006 (while pitching at Tampa and Trenton) Hughes recorded 146 innings pitched. Joba never had more than 110 innings in his minor/major league career.
SUV, agree completely-
another thing about starters going 7 or 8 innings is it builds momentum through the pen
I have no clue what will happen with Wang, but I saw a good number of his fans sporting the #40 last night at Yankee Stadium West. It would be a real shame to see him end up with another team. I hope he and the Yanks can work something out. Better to be classy than to be cheap.
Do the Yankees have oversight concerning any of their pitchers who participate in winter ball? Someone above mentioned (CB?) that Hughes should make sure he throws a lot of breaking balls, the pitch he hasn’t had the opportunity to work on this season which most think will put him at over-the-top quality as a starter.
So, I’m wondering: what kind of input/oversight do the Yankees have?
Re: Wang. Looking at the situation dispassionately, I would not be surprised if the Yankees didn’t bring him back. But as a fan, I like Wang and hope that thinks can work out for him to stay here. I know that’s not the way to look at things if you’re building a team. But, then again, if you stand by Wang, aren’t you also showing your team something?
“CB, one of our more astute readers”
Translation: Believes precisely what I and my followers believe. It is incredibly shortsighted to dismiss the importance of the bullpen as the blog does constantly. It’s no coincidence that as the back end of the pen was stabiilized, the team began to click. Next year when Joba and Phil are starting, we’ll see how stable that bridge to Mo is…
Not to over Jeterize the blog today, but here’s Rob Neyer’s take on Posnanski’s SI piece and Jeter in general…
“http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot/0-4-188/Captain-Jetes-instead-of-Tex-.html”
FYI, Neyer for those of you who didn’t read it, called Jeter right now the third best hiting shortstop of all time behind Honus Wagner and Arky Vaughn. Hard to quibble with that opinion.
The thing is, Mariano Rivera isn’t going to last forever, and the need for a new closer may arise in two to three years. Just as Mo began his career as an 8th inning guy, a similar grooming process for Hughes might be in order. That being said, it makes more sense to play Hughes as a starter until it becomes clear that his recent starting results are not a negative aberration until placing him (permanently) in the bullpen. Until then, one of the other relievers in the bullpen will suffice to pitch the 8th.
Sorry Rishi, didn’t see you had already posted it.
As Max Kellerman calls it the “Relief Ace” is extremely important
“Rob Neyer weighing in on that Jeter article discussed in the last thread…”
This is why Posnanski being the one who wrote that article on Jeter was important.
There was no doubt Neyer would comment on that article. Now it’s well on it’s way to going viral and going viral among a number of people who think Jeter is “overrated.”
“I’m sure most of us remember the couple innings Joba pitched in CLE more vividly than the many innings pitched by the starters. why is that? that alone proves the disporportionate significance of late innings in a baseball.”
This is actually a very good example of why fans overestimate the importance of relievers. The disproportionate influence is primarily in our minds, because late inning heroics stick in our memories and the mundane early innings and the innings pitched in blowouts do not.
While leverage certainly does exist, we tend to give it more importance than it actually has.
bru
August 19th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Scorpio
August 19th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Someone should run this theory by Johan Santana. How many wins did he lose because the 7-8th inning guy couldn’t hold it down? At least 7 losses by the pen last year IIRC.
———————————————————–
who pitches the 7 or 8 innings to get the lead to the pen so they can hold & win it for an inning or two wich is much harder becuse you need more pitches & are going trough lineups more than once.
– - – - -
I got that part. I know that starters are more important and rightfully so but to say that the 8th inning guy is pretty far down on the totem pole of importance is not exactly a fair argument.
Santana is the perfect example of an ace who gives length but has such poor bp support that it renders his success pointless. A loss is still a loss.
Neyer actually agrees with Posnanski, and makes a good point- if you are going to only look at playoff teams, at least look at all of the players on those teams, not just the guy with the most RBI.
CB – I made a similar post earlier today about how it’s important to note “who” is commenting on things/writing articles…the “Tex for MVP” thing didn’t really take off until after some minor tweeting over the weekend.
It is an interesting age with all this real-time back and forth between important “influencers” (or at least opinion-shapers).
Very cool, actually, to read the back and forth/write and response so quickly
“Not at all. There are oodles of ways that you can incoporate inning specific leverage into the way you look at the issue.
And when you look at high leverage situations relievers still don’t come close to being as important as staters. It’s not even close.
If the starter blows the game there is close to zero urgency in the 7-8-9. The team is already buried.
The area where leverage is most egregiously discounted is actually in the earlier innings of a game.”
You’re definitely right that the starting pitcher blowing up and leaving his team down 6 runs has an appeciable influence on the significance of later innings. However the marginal utility between an amazing SP pitching thru the 8th inning/saving BP’s innings, and an above-average SP pitching thru the 6th, giving the BP a few innings (thus throwing out the extreme cases of getting blown away), is not as great.
Especially if one considers the leverage of latter innings, IE situational baserunners/pinch-hitting/and the strategies employed in scoring 1 or 2 runs with only 6 outs remaining, I dont think the discount is overstated much at all. How often do teams squander opportunities to score runs in the 2nd innning because of “well, lets take a shot here by swinging away 3-0 or not bunting” but dont replicate this decision-making in the 8th innning? the inning decay in a baseball game puts the outs at a premium at the end of the baseball, therefore impacting the value of the pitcher for those outs.
we agree that SPs are very important, of course, but it seems extreme to say your 8th inning guy is certainly less significant than each and every position player, etc.
oh – np rconn…at least we are all out there reading the same stuff and sharing it back
“I got that part. I know that starters are more important and rightfully so but to say that the 8th inning guy is pretty far down on the totem pole of importance is not exactly a fair argument.
Santana is the perfect example of an ace who gives length but has such poor bp support that it renders his success pointless. A loss is still a loss”
100% correct.
and there is a new thread an update on Kennedy
“If the guys in the pen are all that critical to a team that team is in a lot of trouble because it means the starting staff is not doing it’s job.”
=====
Not necessarily, in my view.
Then again, maybe the pain of two recent 8th inning blow ups by Mark Lowe is clouding my judgment…
~ the first, last Friday vs. the Yanks
~ the second last night vs. the Tigers
In both instances, the starters did their jobs. RRS was pretty solid at home vs. the Yanks and Felix was super stellar vs. the Tigers in Detroit.
can we get a win with mitre while the rs face hallady?
francessa raving about the angels instead of the rs.
oops. hit submit too soon – meant to add….
All roles may not be equal, but the situation can dictate importance. Those last two 8th inning performances by Lowe were quite possibly the difference between the M’s being 3-2 in their last five games instead of what they actually are, 1-4
I just slapped myself hard on the head. What was I thinking getting suckered into reading any drivel written by Rob Neyer concerning the Yankees?
To prevent others from making the same mistake I did, let me share of of Neyers words to describe the player with the .330 batting average, .395 obp and 159 hits:
“What’s wearisome about Derek Jeter isn’t Derek Jeter. Well, maybe Derek Jeter a little bit. He does sometimes seem a big smug, and lacking in genuineness. But what’s most wearisome is the deification of Derek Jeter, as if he’s not merely a great player but rather a perfect, infallible player. Like God, or Willie Mays.”
Rob Neyer is incapable of not taking a shot at anything related to the Yankees. He is intellectually incapable of being unbiased, even when he’s trying to pretend to be unbiased. If I ever get suckered into reading his garbage again I’ll hit myself over the head with something harder than my hand.
I think the importance of the setup man is diminished here in New York because of the strength of the offense. A 8th inning guy with the Yankees might not be as important to a team like the Twins because the Yankees have only played 29 one run games (16-13 in those games) out of 120 games this year. The Yankees are beating people up when they win ballgames and usually add runs late in the game to put teams away. In fact the 2009 Yankees have scored 92 runs in the 7th and 85 runs in the 8th innings this season. The only other inning that is higher than that is the 4th where the lineup rolls over for the first time. And they have scored 96 in those innings through 120 games.
http://www.baseball-reference......eam_id=NYY
How is the setup guy not more important than the 9th hitter or the 5 starter?
You don’t miss the bridge to Mo until you don’t have one.
Anybody who thinks what Hughes is doing isn’t extremely important doesn’t remember the first six weeks of the season.
—
So next year…1st week of the season against the Sox who pitches the 8th inning in a tight game…Coke, Bruney, Ace, D-Rob…Do you trust anything more then Hughes…So when youkilis is up who do you trust with the ball…We have been looking so good because our bullpen knows their roles and hughes is in it
Scorpio
August 19th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
bru
August 19th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Scorpio
August 19th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Someone should run this theory by Johan Santana. How many wins did he lose because the 7-8th inning guy couldn’t hold it down? At least 7 losses by the pen last year IIRC.
———————————————————–
who pitches the 7 or 8 innings to get the lead to the pen so they can hold & win it for an inning or two wich is much harder becuse you need more pitches & are going trough lineups more than once.
– – – – -
I got that part. I know that starters are more important and rightfully so but to say that the 8th inning guy is pretty far down on the totem pole of importance is not exactly a fair argument.
Santana is the perfect example of an ace who gives length but has such poor bp support that it renders his success pointless. A loss is still a loss.
———————————————————-
the mets had the same problem before signing jj & krod
the angels are getting it done with a very weak pen after losing krod.
yes you need a pen that is good enough but the key is good starting pitching that gives you innings
uh, set up guys ARE important. Phil Hughes is not the 15th most important person on the team. Our starters aren’t going to go 8 innings every time like CC. If you don’t have reliable people at the back of your bullpen @ the end of games, you’re screwed. When playoff time rolls around and all the games are close at the end, Phil Hughes is going to look a lot more “important” to our team.
uh, set up guys ARE important. Phil Hughes is not the 15th most important person on the team. Our starters aren’t going to go 8 innings every time like CC. If you don’t have reliable people at the back of your bullpen @ the end of games, you’re screwed. When playoff time rolls around and all the games are close at the end, Phil Hughes is going to look a lot more “important” to our team.
—-
Totally agree….Mark Feinsand of the Daily News thinks hughes could be Mo replacement in a few years…I trend to agree
“But what’s most wearisome is the deification of Derek Jeter, as if he’s not merely a great player but rather a perfect, infallible player.”
Drive 4-5
I’ve been a Yankee fan for 40+ years. I love Jeter and I agree with Neyer on the above statement.
Please inform the 2008 Mets that a strong bullpen with a strong setup man and closer isn’t very important to the success of a team.
JH
August 19th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
uh, set up guys ARE important. Phil Hughes is not the 15th most important person on the team. Our starters aren’t going to go 8 innings every time like CC. If you don’t have reliable people at the back of your bullpen @ the end of games, you’re screwed. When playoff time rolls around and all the games are close at the end, Phil Hughes is going to look a lot more “important” to our team.
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what happens if you have a starter that gets bombed & it never gets to the pen??
pen guys are important but not nearly as starters.
in one game would you rather have becket starting or huges & mo in the pen
Agreed.
However, I do believe that Hughes stabilization of the bullpen relaxed the starters. They perceived that they could trust the bullpen more and thus pitched more effectively and deeper into the game. It could be the chicken or the egg thing, but I believe the starters turned around because their trust in the bullpen grew. We weren’t getting long outings from the starters besides CC until the bullpen turned it around.
Don’t get me wrong I am not a Joba to the bullpen guy.
I just think in this case it was the bullpen that turned the starters around.
Robertson has closer stuff. His 93-94 looks like 97-98. He just needs to throw strikes more consistently.
Pete, I agree with everything you said, but I believe there are two qualifiers here: first, as opposed to Joba who has to prove that he can harness his stuff and pitch efficiently and effectively, Hughes has to prove that he can conjure up a third pitch because, as a starter, it was obvious that he was not the exception to the rule that would allow him to be really, really good with just two pitches, and second, while I completely agree that the set-up guy is not as important as others have made it out to be, Hughes’ emergence coinciding with the magnificent bullpen performance is not, in my mind, a fluke. First, he’s been brilliant in that role, meaning you replaced a bad pitcher (Veras, Ramirez, Tomko, take your pick) with a good one. Any time you can upgrade, it is a positive. Second, whether it is a defect in Girardi’s ability to manage, or just a product of circumstances, there was absolutely no rhyme or reason to how GI Joe used the pen before Franchise moved into the 8th inning. Now, people seem to have defined roles, and that does seem to make a difference.
It is much easier to find an eighth inning guy than a solid to very good starter, no question, but you still have to find that person, and Hughes’ role on the team right now, including the mental aspect of him being in there (it must be a huge positive to the starters to know that there are SEVERAL guys capable of getting outs in tough spots late in games rather than just one or two), shouldn’t be completely diminished.
In terms of maturity and mound demeanor, Hughes is far ahead of Joba.
Phil had his down times but was always willing to listen and learn.
RMEL
August 19th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
You don’t miss the bridge to Mo until you don’t have one.
Anybody who thinks what Hughes is doing isn’t extremely important doesn’t remember the first six weeks of the season.
—
So next year…1st week of the season against the Sox who pitches the 8th inning in a tight game…Coke, Bruney, Ace, D-Rob…Do you trust anything more then Hughes…So when youkilis is up who do you trust with the ball…We have been looking so good because our bullpen knows their roles and hughes is in it
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who started your so called tight game?
starters are more important.
not saying pen guys arent
The problem with Joba is that he rarely goes into the 7th and 8th.. It’s usually the 5th and 6th. You can’t use age as an excuse either with that. If you look at young “aces” they at least show glimpses of being able to go the distance. With him, a setup guy is just as important because it equals 1/3 of the game. I think it’s ridiculous to try and diminish that role.
Cardinals did the same thing with Adam Wainwright. If Wainwright was in new york there would of been a lot of people complaining he belongs in the bullpen. Especially after his first year as a starter in 2007 where he was 14-12 with a 3.70 era. A 3.70 era would be a 4.20 era in the al. But now look Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the national league.
On the argument that young pitchers will develop better if they start out in the bullpen argument:
It definitely seems to help build confidence and willingnesss to attack the strike zone. (They all know that the number one rule of coming out of the pen is don’t walk people).
BUT, I think there are also three significant drawbacks: First, it prevents them from building up the stamina and arm strength required to pitch 6-7 innnings every five days for 200 innings over the course of a season.
Second, they don’t learn how to “work a line-up” (i.e, how to pitch to a batter knowing you are going to face him two or three more times in the course of that game).
Finally, and most importantly, young stud pitchers will ignore their third and fourth pitches while in the pen because they frankly don’t need them to dominate there. I think this is actually a really big issue. Very few pitchers can dominate as starters with only two pitches. When a great young pitcher has mastered his top two pitches, and has a workable third pitch that might become very good as well with a little more work, he needs to bear down and master it. If he does, he will be that much better. He is much more likely to master this pitch if he is starting in the minors than if he is relying solely on his first two pitches to dominate “the eighth.”
Now, all of these issues don’t arise if the pitcher has 1) already developed stamina and arm strength in the minors 2) pitched a bunch of minor league innings so he has plenty of experience with working lineups 3) developed all the pitches he is going to develop early in his career. In this case, by all means use the young stud in the pen if you have five starters you would rather use in front of him at this point in his career.
But outside of this situation, you are indeed stunting the young pitcher’s development as a starter.
Now, if you have a glaring weakness in your bullpen, it might be worth it to you to stunt the young pitcher’s development as starter to shore up your relief corp. And stunting his development doesn’t mean you are stopping his development. Great starters will be great starters sooner or later.
But the point remains: he is not becoming a better starter while he is throwing two kinds of pitches in 4 one inning stints per week.
Having Hughes in the bullpen didn’t single handedly transform the bullpen but it does make a bigger impact than simply providing a few good innings.
Having a regular 8th inning guy allows the other people to know their roles and be more settled and relaxed and therefore perform better as well. Obviously starters pitching deeper into games helped this as well since it wasn’t simply a case of throwing out anyone who had another inning in their arm.
As to the setup guy not being as important as everyday players – this just isn’t right. As we see when guys get injured and someone gets called up and fills in for a few weeks – the team gets by fine – especially when you have a lineup as deep as ours.
The no 8 hitter can certainly have a huge impact on the game if they hit well, but they can just as easily go 0-4 and the team can still coast. Simply put, he can be a part of a winning team, but he will struggle to lose the game by himself.
A set-up guy however can easily waste the efforts of all the other guys and can single handedly loose the game. I’d say the fact that the entire outcome of the game so often rests in his hands makes him pretty darn important.
I am actually less worried about Hughes development as a starter than Joba’s.
Hughes just has a better attitude and seems more wiling to listen to those around him and learn from them.
pat
August 19th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
“But what’s most wearisome is the deification of Derek Jeter, as if he’s not merely a great player but rather a perfect, infallible player.”
Drive 4-5
I’ve been a Yankee fan for 40+ years. I love Jeter and I agree with Neyer on the above statement.
Pat, sorry to read that you and I are close to the same age:) Unfortunately, I’ve probably got about 8 years on you. I’m not into idol worshipping of Derek Jeter or anyone else for that matter. I challenge Rob Neyer or anyone else to show me an article that says Jeter is “infallible”. You certainly can find all the writing you want describing his lack of range or power. Show me one article that says he is infallible.
What Derek Jeter is, is consistent. How many players can Neyer name with a career batting average over .300 who’s lifetime batting agerage and obp actually increased at age 35? I’m sure the ones you do find are in Cooperstown. It’s sad that some folks can’t see the forest through the trees and give a HOF caliber player the credit he deserves.
could someone please forward this to Mike Francesca’s email
Sorry guys, but I couldn’t disagree with this post more. Having a lights out set up man combining with the greatest closer in the history of the game is a deadly combination. I don’t think the set up man is as important on other teams as it is on the yankees. However with Phil (or Joba) and Mo combining, the game is shortened to 7 innings every time. As long as the Yankees have a slim lead by the 7th, you can pretty much count on a victory.
That being said, where Hughes becomes even more valuable in the bullpen, is that he has the ability to throw two innings or more. Combine that with the fact that Coke, Aceves, Bruney, and Robertson have been great lately, and you realize the Yankees have what is probably the best bullpen in baseball right now.
Personally, if it wasn’t for the fact that Andy Petite will probably retire after this year, I’d leave Phil in the Penn for another year or two, and then figure out what to do with him.
The problem with this argument is that almost every good playoff team has a great back end bullpen pitching … Im not saying that Hughes should be in the pen or not. But, if Hughes is going to give you the dominant arm out of the pen then it IS valuable. Name a great team in the last 15 years that did not have dominant arms out of the pen. You can get lucky and go on a run deep in the playoffs, but its way easier if you can throw guys like Hughes out there in the 7th or 8th inning in game 5 of the ALDS with a 3-2 lead.
Bullcrap post, Pete. Hughes filling the set-up role helped turn the season around. And if you don’t think it matters much, come back to us with the same theory after the postseason, which we will only survive if Hughes continuies to be successful as the primary bridge to Rivera.
i think the focus on the 7th/8th is a little yankees’ universe centric and all stems from recollections of rivera and wettland shutting teams down from the 7th on in 95 and 96.
Hat tip to Pete Abe for the call during spring training that robertson would have an impact by year end. well done.
I can see the Yanks going after Lackey hard. The need another true top, reliable starter with Wang questionable.
Pettite is getting on in years.
I don’t think the debate right now, this season, is about who is more important- a reliever or a starter.
The question is with Joba (and possibly Hughes), up against already decided upon innings limits, what do you do with them?
At this point in this season, there is little downside to having them both in the pen, and a large upside. Let them both be starters next year if they can handle it.
I agree 100%. Next year we will have a lethal 5 man rotation.