On some days you get lucky
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- September
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Baseball is unique in that the writers have access to the clubhouse three and a half hours before the game. There is no pre-game access in the NFL and it’s somewhat limited in the NBA.
Part of my job is gather enough information for a Yankees notebook that is filed back to the newspaper before the game starts. That involves tracking down the news of the day for the most part. With the Yankees, there is always something going on.
Once that is finished, I try and use the time to have conversations with the players about different things with an eye on using that information to develop a story down the road. If nothing else, you build up relationships. Because their season is so long and their games are often so slow, many baseball players are good conversationalists. It is true of almost every player that they are more candid speaking one-on-one then they are in a group setting, especially when the television cameras are on.
I found myself talking to Nick Swisher this afternoon about the wide discrepancy in his numbers on the road as opposed to Yankee Stadium.
Swish was honest, admitting that it bothered him.
“I feel like the walls are right on top of on the road and they seem a mile away at Yankee Stadium,” he said. “It’s frustrating. I sort of have to remind myself that I’m having a good season anyway.”
I took a few notes, wished Swish well in the game and went about my business. Then — ka-boom — Swish hits a two-run homer to win the game and instant story.
Swisher is hitting .283 with 20 homers and 52 RBI on the road. He’s hitting .200 with three homers and 20 RBI in the Bronx.
“It’s mind-boggling,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “It’s hard to understand, but baseball can be hard to understand. … I don’t try and figure out anything with Swish.”
Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett was, well, A.J. Burnett again. He has a 6.54 ERA in his last seven starts and doesn’t have a win since July 27. Girardi said he wasn’t worried. But unless Burnett gains some consistency, sending him out to the mound in the postseason will be a nerve-wracking experience. Keep in mind, Burnett’s next postseason game will be his first. How is Andy Pettitte not the Game 2 starter at this point?
Then we have Jorge Posada, who twice lost track of the count when he was at the plate tonight. But he did hit two home runs for the first time since Sept. 4, 2007.
The Yankees are 84-48 with 30 games left. If they merely go .500, they’ll win 99 games. You have to figure they do much better than that. Raise your hand if you had them winning 103 games this season. Anybody?
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on Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009 at 12:33 am by Peter Abraham.
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Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
Great game! Being there watching it was awesome! Especially Mo.
Don’t they have 30 games left? Wouldn’t a .500 rest-of-the-way give them 99 wins?
““It’s mind-boggling,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “It’s hard to understand, but baseball can be hard to understand. … I don’t try and figure out anything with Swish.””
I don’t think you can figure out Swish. But I’m not complaining.
Wilson Betemit.
It cost the Yankees Wilson Betemit.
Burnett has been a streaky pitcher. Hopefully he can bounce back from a few poor outings and dominate like he did in July, so in a way it’s better this happen now, than late September.
This team has a good feeling about them and has the potential to do something great. They have now won 69 out of their last 100 games. I wonder how many teams play .700 ball over the course of 100+ games. That’s 1998 yankee territory.
Drew’s right.
84-48 is 132 games.
Don’t forget those Oct. games Pete. You’ve got that last trip to Tampa.
I don’t see it as streaky. His outting against both Seattle and the Rangers were both quality starts (3 runs in 6+ innings of work) but those games were just the ones that the Yankee offense happened to be stifled/asleep. Them’s the breaks. CC just had one where he got a no decision after giving up only 2 runs. It happens in baseball. I’m not throwing in the towel on AJ just yet, but I wish he’d find some rhythm…
Hughes is going to be the closer tomorrow unless they have a big lead in the 9th.
Mo threw a lot of pitches today (for him) and he also worked yesterday. Probably won’t be out there tomorrow.
Of all people, you don’t expect Jorge to lose track of the count … twice!! What was he thinking about up there?
OOPS ….
84 + 48 = 132
162 – 132 = 30 games left
84 + 15 = 99 projected wins. (Not 98)
Am I missing a card in my deck or what?
The comments are right – Yanks have 30 games left. Pete Abe must be tired. I predict 102-104 wins.
Anyone else worried about how good Psul Bird and Wagner have looked for boson lately? Those were 2 great late season pickups.
yea the season is dependent on the great paul byrd. classic fan, done well lately…. the guy pitched 6 innings all season in the majors.. then again wagner has pitched 2 innings for the sux..
get a clue…
Sal
September 2nd, 2009 at 1:01 am
Anyone else worried about how good Psul Bird and Wagner have looked for boson lately? Those were 2 great late season pickups.
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No. Worry about Boston if we see them in the ALCS.
Burnett will be fine. I’m not too worried. I know he was 0-4 in August. But one of those losses he pitched a complete game and gave up only 3 runs. He pitched well against texas. He’ll be fine you want him to get on a roll in late september and carry it into october.
Mr. Franco, I read your last post in the previous thread…..Displaying some brass…..Telling it like it is……
Who is “Psul Bird”?
Paul Byrd against the Yankees ALCS- LOL !
Paul Byrd is going to be one of the pieces that will cause Boston’s downfall.
Paul Byrd beat a team that mails every game to the Red Sox, lets see what he can do against the Angels.
Paul Byrd eliminated us at home in the 2007 ALDS.
I know, I know… just another long line of garbage pitchers to shut us down in October in recent years.
wasnt aj part of that florida team that beat the yankees?
isnt that the reason they beat the yankees? i thought that team had pavano, aj, beckett, and penny?
sorry I meant mails in every game to the Red Sox.
And speaking of Billy Wagner- let’s see him in a big spot in the postseason since he is one of the biggest chokers ever.
“isnt that the reason they beat the yankees? i thought that team had pavano, aj, beckett, and penny?”
No it was just Pavano, Penny and Beckett twice
that game against paul byrd in 2007 was mailed in by the Yankee hitters. Once the lead was gone already being down in the series they quit. Also many of the Yankee hitters like Jeter and Damon were not healthy and had bad offensive years.
Can’t wait to face that bum Pavano in Game 1 of the ALDS
Angels lost,you know what that means,Yankees gain a game on the ANGELS,Yea!
Y26
I’m sure the Yankee hitters would love to face the Twins and Pavano in Game 1. I am praying for the Twins to win that division so the Yankees can get revenge for what Pavano did. And the Yankees have always owned the Twins.
This story is why I love reading Pete’s work. Excellent job as always! Thanks Pete!
Has Burnett ever pitched an entire season with no stint on the DL?
*raises hand*
There were a few of us out there that thought this team was going to be good. I said it felt like the 03 team prior to this season. Of course, that was with Wang in the rotation. They have played ALOT better than that team though. I think 103 is low too.. I’m expecting 107 range.
I had a bet – for no money – with my drummer and friend that they would win….ta da…103. He thought 105.
I’d take 101 now, but still think they can do 103.
“CK in LA September 2nd, 2009 at 12:56 am
Of all people, you don’t expect Jorge to lose track of the count … twice!! What was he thinking about up there?”
hmmm. maybe that’s why the pitchers are getting upset at him. he’s calling for pitches that don’t make sense for what the count is.
WCBS news radio was talking about John Sterling’s new Hinske HR call this morning. Then they replayed the clip of him saying, “Hinske with your best shot!”
Geez … are we that desperate to bash Pete. He said “If they merely go .500, they’ll win 99 games. You have to figure they do much better than that. Raise your hand if you had them winning 103 games this season. Anybody?”
He said clearly he figures they will do better than .500 and that the final total will be 103 or better. No math mistake and some speculation. To get to 103 wins the Yanks needs to go 19-11 which is a .633 winning percentage. You know, kinda like the percentage they have right now of .636.
I believe MLB Trade Rumors had them at 106 actually. Well, it seemed like so many players had down seasons last year and now this year is the opposite. It’s a wonder what happens when your entire team stays mostly healthy.
Interesting that last night ESPN was still going on and on about someone needing to sit AJ and Posada down to straighten out their differences. Yankee haters. ESPN still blaming Posada for AJ’s problems.
Love reading the “… and now for the rest of the story” from Pete. The inside little comments from players, etc. are what are interesting to me.
I really want to go back and find the post about the songs played as each player comes to bat. It’s probably 1000 posts back, though.
At the beginning of this season, I had them winning 105 games. With a rotation of CC, AJ, Wang, Pettitte and Joba, there shouldn’t have been any loose ends. Unfortunately, Wang wasn’t Wang, Joba has his innings issues and AJ is being the bad AJ as the season ends.
Thankfully CC is having a usual season. The surprise for me is Pettitte and our timely hitting.
if this post is about swisher, why is the picture of hinske?
Want to know what’s wrong with A.J. Burnett?
ERA w/Posada: 4.96
ERA w/Any Other Catcher: 3.38
Burnett looked positively dominating in one of his last three starts… It happened to be the one NOT started by Posada.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t pretend this is all Posada’s fault, but even his strongest supporters admit there IS an issue.
The Yankees don’t force Sabathia to work with Posada, and I don’t see how forcing Burnett to do so helps this team.
Catchers ERA is a useless statistic. It is something no team uses to evaluate catchers.
If you actually watched the game instead of mindlessly quoting a stat nobody in baseball uses you would see Posada was not the reason for Burnett’s struggles last night.
Do you really believe the Yankees are going to sit Posada for Molina in the post-season for either CC or AJ?
If you believe that, you must be a Red Sox fan because they are the only people dumb enough to believe it would happen.
SJ, with all due respect it’s comments like the one you just made that cause a lot of the crap here because your comment is basically insulting. You are one of the people here who tend to stay away from that stuff so I would appreciate the usual fair hearing from you on this.
It is in the realm of possibility that there is something that works better for AJ when he throws to Molina. You are probably right that Posada is not going to be sat down in the postseason, but I think it could end up being a mistake. It isn’t for the same reason but Wakefield had his own catcher in the postseason and it wasn’t Varitek.
There have been a number of posters who have voiced concern over this issue and for the people who don’t think there is any issue to just keep writing us off as idiots is as unfair as for us to do the same about all of you. I don’t know how else to say it but neither you or anyone else here corners the market on truth. When the entire media was all over the issue you found an excuse for that too. Maybe you people should step back and ask whether you are the ones who might not have it totally right.
In any event, I have gotten past the point of worrying about why it is happening. I would just like to see it resolved. And if the resolution is that AJ is such a headcase that he needs babysitting by someone who will coddle him, at this point I say do it. It’s about winning. Maybe he has it stuck in his head that he can’t work with Posada. Again the reason to me is irrelevant right now. If he works better with Molina, give him Molina. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if Molina caught one game in the postseason or caught only the games AJ would be throwing.
That’s my opinion. Will it happen? You may be right that it will not.
But people who are concerned about this have the right to feel that concern and voice that concern. I happen to believe there is a lot to be said for the perspective that
AJ needs to be paired with someone other than Posada. Again, the reasons at this point in the season turn out to be the least of my worries.
Trisha,
Amid all this nonsense with Posada, several facts get in the way…
1. Nobody in MLB evaluates catchers using Catchers ERA. Nobody. That’s a fact. Don’t believe me? E-Mail Pete and ask him.
Its a useless statistic because there are too many variables that go into it the statistic doesn’t measure. Therefore, quoting it is dumb and the folks who do so to make a point have no idea what they are talking about.
2. The “media being all over a story” is not proof of anything Trisha. The fact is, there isn’t a division race to cover so, the media has to look for something to talk about. A manufactured controversy is one way to get eyeballs to their stories.
3. AJ did the same thing, melted down after adversity, in his last start with Molina behind the plate. Didn’t get a call, walked the next 2 guys, and hit gave up a 3 run HR, that put the Yankees behind in the game. Same situation as last night, and he did the same thing, with a DIFFERENT catcher. See a pattern?
4. AJ Burnett has pitched like this HIS ENTIRE CAREER. It doesn’t take much to go back and look at his entire career and see these spikes, both upward and downward, in production.
Logic would tell you that if he has pitched like this his entire career, it can’t be one catcher’s fault for his inconsistency.
5. The Yankees have the best record in baseball. Jorge Posada has been the catcher for most of those wins. Now tell me, if he was so bad, how are they winning AND pitching better?
6. AJ’s best games this season have been with Posada behind the plate, In fact, if you look at his last two years of work, one could argue the majority of his better pitched games in the last 2 years have come with Posada behind the plate. Again, look it up and you will see that’s the case.
All this, “it has to be Posada’s fault” nonsense fails in one important area. The facts.
The fact is, AJ is a very erratic pitcher. He has been that way his entire career.
Its also a fact that Posada, an asset to the team, is not gonig to be benched in the post-season when there is no evidence whatsoever he is the cause for ANY pitchers struggles, let alone AJ Burnett’s.
When someone can offer real proof…..proof that supercedes all of the facts I laid out above, then you might have a point that Posada is at the root of Burnett’s struggles.
To do so however, one has to ignore AJ’s entire body of work in his career and that’s pretty hard to do and sell that Jorge Posada is at the root of his struggles.
Pete, when all is said and done and if you get bored covering the yankees, you would be a great journalism professor. That, and you would have the best stories to tell during office hours.
Using the blame game for Jorge just doesn’t cut it.
It’s easy to see that the problems with Joba and Burnett lies between their ears.
SJ, I must admit, that while your argument is solid, it’s still your opinion. Correct or not, it’s your opinion. As you’re not AJ, you can’t be sure that it’s not in his head about Posada, and you’re not in Posada’s head either.
Mike Mussina, as tempermental as he was, had issues with Posada. That too has been reported as ‘fact’. I don’t know if he ever said it, as I wasn’t there, but it was reported, for what it’s worth.
Some people do better paired with some over others. It’s human nature. Some double play combinations work better than others. Jeter works better with Cano than he did with Soriano. Is that a fact? Maybe, but it’s definately my opinion.
Trisha has a right to her’s, whether I agree with it or not, and in this case I happen to think – and read slowly – that there MAY be some validity to the appearance that AJ seems to have difficulty working with Posada. Different individuals are just that – DIFFERENT. Posada calls differently from Molina who calls differently from Cervelli. It’s probably based on their individual experiences in the league, their knowledge of the batter, and even the situation. Sometimes that knowledge may work to the advantage of the pitcher. Sometimes lack of that same knowledge may allow the pitcher to recommend what he feels comfortable with and the ‘lesser’ experienced catcher may validate that comfort level by acceding to the choice of that pitcher. Who knows? We certainly don’t. It’s all opinion.
Saint
SJ thanks for the thought-out response.
If you go back and read my post you will see that your response ends up being unresponsive just because I didn’t bring up any point that would be answered by what you’ve pointed out.
Your response is probably valuable for anyone at this point who is ascribing blame. I’m not. Just looking for answers.
I will say that the media was not off base at all to be questioning something when the raw data at least were seeming to say one thing. The point at which the media picked up the story was when Jorge came back off the DL and the Yankees went 12-23 after being on a tear. At this point they were looking back on what Molina and then Cervelli had accomplished and what happened when Posada took over again. It was fair game to question. I mention this time and again but posters seem to gloss over it at their convenience: Posada even said at that point in time that he needed to do a better job of communicating with his pitchers. So maybe there was room for improvement on both sides of the equation.
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My bottom line is that all I care is that the Yankees win their games and don’t exhaust themselves in the process every time AJ takes the mound. I don’t care if the tooth fairy catches his games if it works.
How do you explain the same type of meltdowns with different catchers? How do you explain career long spikes, both positive and negative, in performance?
There is also this “problem” in that Burnett’s best games this year have come with Posada catching him.
Again, its all well and good to have opinions. Everybody has them.
However, facts still count and the fact is, Burnett’s issues this season are no different than they have been in any of his previous seasons.
That’s why its just about impossible to logically place the blame on his struggles to Posada.
This is who he is, and has always been as a pitcher, in his career.
To ignore that is not using all of the evidence available to reach a logical conclusion.
Saint – thank you. If we could all realize that it all comes down to opinion and nothing more, most of our discussions here could be polite and productive. Unless we are the actual principals, there is no way we can do anything but give our best guesses.
Did everyone forget that Jorge caught AJ’s brilliant game against the Sox at Yankee Stadium?
You ask how Andy Pettitte is not the Game-2 SP? Simple.
1. AJ has much better numbers pitching at home (in NY).
2. I trust Andy more pitching on the road in the crucial game-3.
3. Who would you rather have pitching Game-7? Game-3 starter goes again Game-7, more often than not.
SO, I let CC & AJ start at home, have Andy & Joba ready to go on the road. CC goes Game-5, come back hom with AJ & ANDY for games 6 & 7.
If CC wins game-1…. 3rd game has more pressure anyway.