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Looking back at some predictions

Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Sep 28, 2009 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Back on April 2 on his blog I predicted that Phil Hughes would throw 80 innings in the majors and be an important piece. He’s at 84.1 innings.

Of course, none of us thought he would be a reliever.

I also questioned the merits of Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and Jonathan Albaladejo. But then so did anybody with common sense. The prediction that Brett Gardner would steal 40 bases was thrown off by his stint on the DL. But he has swiped 24.

My “Steven Jackson will emerge in the bullpen” call was really off. Yikes.

My season predictions were a mixed bag. I had four division winners right. But it does not appear the Indians will win the Central. No sir. My thought that Trey Hillman would be AL Manager of the Year was clouded by my heavy use of crack at the time apparently. Matsuzaka for Cy Young? Brilliant.

I had the Yankees for 98 wins. That counts as a W. Picking the Cubs to win the NL? Big L. The Mets as the wild card? Huge L.

I also had the Yankees winning the World Series. We shall see what comes of that.

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62 Responses to “Looking back at some predictions”

  1. TubbyNJ September 28th, 2009 at 2:34 pm

    I can’t believe you had Strasburg for NL ROY. Was that a joke? There was no way he’d get more than a meaningless month in at the end of the year for the NATIONALS. How would anyone take that seriously?

  2. Patrick Bateman September 28th, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    Stephen Strasberg is probably at home playing Xbox right now.

  3. Golden September 28th, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    Crack is whack Pete! Can’t believe your leaving, don’t go man!

  4. ditmars1929 September 28th, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    Pete, nobody cares about any of your other predictions as long as your guess about the Yankees winning the WS comes true!

  5. Jason September 28th, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    Soriano for MVP? Really?

  6. Benny Blanco September 28th, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    “My thought that Trey Hillman would be AL Manager of the Year was clouded by my heavy use of crack at the time apparently. Matsuzaka for Cy Young? Brilliant.”========================

    LMAOL!!!

  7. trisha - OPPC lifetime member and a believer in Ortiz karma September 28th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

    I actually didn’t predict about much except for the Yanks. Okay that’s not true. I did predict that the Rays would come in 2nd in our division, after the Yanks. Otherwise my predictions so far have been on the money. Yanks take the division.

    My final prediction – Yanks win the world series. To quote Pete, we shall see what comes of that.

    Okay okay I’m being modest. Of course they’ll win the world series!

    :)

  8. CountryClub September 28th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

    I had the Yanks at 97 wins. Tampa and the Jays falling apart made the division easier than some of us expected. I figured 97 would be enough to win it and it appears that’ll be the case. Boston has a chance at 98 if they win all their games.

  9. Nick von Clausewitz in SF September 28th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

    I remember what you predicted, Trisha. :(

  10. choozen1ne September 28th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    I had Pavano to take the Cy Young , I guess I was wrong :)

  11. Andrew GTLU Bronze Medalist September 28th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    The NL individual predictions are hilarious now looking back, although I’m not trying to rip them or anything because at the time they weren’t totally out of hand. It’s like you predicted the anti-everything, though, now that the results are in. Soriano was a huge bust, Webb was out all year, Lou got into fight after fight with his own players, and Strasburg never showed up in the league.

  12. Stephen September 28th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

    No worries, Pete. I picked Burnett to have the biggest season of the big three acquisitions. I figured all the pressure would be on Tex and Sabathia, and that it would take a season to adjust to this market. Oh well.

  13. L to the 2nd September 28th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    Damn Pete, Miss Cleo you ain’t :)

  14. REY September 28th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    Good call’s Pete! Love ya man gonna miss ya’

  15. Screw-the-Stache September 28th, 2009 at 2:50 pm

    “Steven Jackson will emerge in the bullpen”

    He did — but it was in the Pirates’ bullpen.

  16. trisha - OPPC lifetime member and a believer in Ortiz karma September 28th, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    Stephen, actually I predicted that same thing about AJ!

  17. Robbykid September 28th, 2009 at 2:52 pm

    I had Barry Bonds as the “comeback player of the year”

  18. Bronx Jeers September 28th, 2009 at 2:52 pm

    “My “Steven Jackson will emerge in the bullpen” call was really off. Yikes.”

    Well he is averaging 4.8 yards per carry so…….

    Seriously though, sometimes life is about the half-truths.

    And the fact is that…Steven Jackson did emerge from a bullpen. Probably more than once.

    And I’m sure many Missourians consider Hillman manager of the year.

  19. Brad P September 28th, 2009 at 2:52 pm

    Post-Pete depression setting in.

  20. trisha - OPPC lifetime member and a believer in Ortiz karma September 28th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    “Post-Pete depression setting in.”

    I’ve had it for a while now.

  21. pat September 28th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    I was feeling good about Pete’s Yankees win the WS pick until reminded of some of his other ones. :smile:

  22. El duque September 28th, 2009 at 2:57 pm

    If I would be a multi millionair I would pay you only for doing this BLOG! Much more than Boston could offer!

  23. El duque September 28th, 2009 at 2:57 pm

    Please don´t leave!

    You will be missed!

  24. haiku-man September 28th, 2009 at 2:58 pm

    I try to stay away from predictions.
    A St Louis cardinal fan friend,2 weeks ago was wishingg for the NL,WC to be the Rockies for an easy first round win.

    Last week the Cardinals needed 1 win to clinch their division.
    Well the Rockies opened up a can of you know what on Carpenter,et al.It took the Cardinals a week to get the 1 win to clinch or the Cubs lose 1,because the Cubs were winning.and the Rockies too. Finally the Rockies dropped 1 and the Cardinals clinched.

    My friend has second thoughts about the Rockies now,bwahahah!

  25. Rex September 28th, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    100 plus years, and even many very intelligent people still don’t get the Cubs.

  26. Darrin September 28th, 2009 at 3:00 pm

    I should just listen to John and Suzyn already and stop with the baseball prediction nonsense.

    How else can I explain my doomed pre-season forecast of a Baltimore Oriole/Washington National “Potomoc” World Series?

    Baseball is completely unpredictable.

  27. vin September 28th, 2009 at 3:01 pm

    LOL – I remember the Dice K, Strasburg, and Hillman predictions. Bold? Yes. Anywhere close to accurate? No.

    I had:
    Yanks (99 wins)
    Sox (WC)
    Either Indians or Twins
    Angels (who else?)

    Phillies
    Cubs
    Dodgers
    Mets (WC)

    Biggest surprises:
    Mets (obviously negative)
    Indians (negative)
    Rangers (positive)
    Blue Jays (positive, for the first 2 months anyway)

    I didn’t have much faith in the Rays, simply because rarely does a team have so many good breaks two years in a row. I did figure they’d get to 88 wins or so. I laugh at all the BJ Upton for MVP picks on espn’s 2009 preseason predictions.

  28. Free Mike Vick September 28th, 2009 at 3:01 pm

    Brandon Webb CY Young? Really? lol

  29. Darrin September 28th, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    I just thought of something:

    If the Yanks and Red Sox meet in the ALCS, and the Yankees win – man, those Sox fans are going to put a HATIN’ on Pete like he’s never seen.

    Call it a feeling.

  30. Rex September 28th, 2009 at 3:05 pm

    “Brandon Webb CY Young? Really? lol”

    Won it in ’06 and was runner up in ’07 and ’08. Wasn’t that ridiculous a pick. Hard to forecast injury.

  31. haiku-man September 28th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    Pete please reconsider,who’s going to keep us so well fed,and the rowdy inline.

    Sam already said he was afraid of the blog posters,when he filled in for you,(you must’ve told him about our passion.)Please stay.

    I ain’t to proud to beg,Please stay Pete!

  32. Bronx Jeers September 28th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    “Post-Pete depression setting in.”

    It still beats depression caused by Pete’s posts which many suffered from last season at this time.

    I didn’t make any compelling predictions but I did have this Yankee fantasy after Arod’s PED usage came out and his surgery.

    I fantasized that Arod would come back as more of a team player. That he would keep his nose clean and even speak to kids about the dangers of steroids. I also envisioned him better utilizing his talent to help his team win games. I hoped he would sort leave the egg on his face for a while and just focus on hitting the ball up the middle instead of always swinging for the fences.

    And I was pleasantly surprised.

  33. Nick von Clausewitz in SF September 28th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    Lay down with dogs, wake up with fleas. ;)

  34. Jeremy September 28th, 2009 at 3:09 pm

    Yeah Sox fans would be pretty mad even they lost to the Yankees in an ALCS. Pete’s blog would go nuts.

  35. Jeremy September 28th, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    sorry- pretty mad if they lost to the Yankees in an ALCS.

  36. Rex September 28th, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    “Lay down with dogs, wake up with fleas.”

    Technically, he’s under the umbrella of the New York Times…..so, you have a good point there.

  37. Joba the Great September 28th, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    Most people can’t remember who writes the stories or who covers the team. You’ve done extraordinary work here, Pete. Please just do us a favor and write that Pedroia made a play that was “magically delicious” sometime. We’ll know you’re saying hi . . .

  38. haiku-man September 28th, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    -Darin

    No they won’t he’s a native of the state.They’ll cut him slack,and welcome him home.
    A guy’s gotta make a living,he’ll be fine.
    Plus how can anyone hate on Pete?

  39. DT - OPPC member September 28th, 2009 at 3:14 pm

    My Spring Training predictions came out about 50/50.

    I predicted Pete would leave this blog in Sept. – But I also thought he would follow Bruce on tour and become a Springsteen groupie.

    I predicted that diapers would be in GreenBeret7′s future. – But I didn’t foresee the twins arrival and Pampers.

    I predicted a bubbly young lady with small feet would take the blog by storm with her GTLU game – But I didn’t know about her enormous shoe size.

    I predicted this Nick in SF and Trisha would kiss and make-up and bury the Acerbic Hatchet by early May- But that was off by a few months and 100 Truther barbs.

    I predicted that Randy l would come to the realization that Brian Cashman was the best GM on the planet, and that he would name drop “Clete Boyer” 27 times.
    (you can guess which half I got right there)

  40. haiku-man September 28th, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    -Joba the Great

    He could use the word “Midgee,” we’ll know he’s saying hello.

  41. Chief WaHoo September 28th, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    I had Pavano and Cleveland “taking it to the Yankees” in the first round. Looks like half of that could still come true! What a worst case/nightmare scenario for all Yankee fans!!!

  42. Blackaccord September 28th, 2009 at 3:17 pm

    Great work pete.. I don’t see sportscasters or writers usually man up and discuss their predictions.. particularly ESPN ppl.. buster olney and Jayson stark mention about their picks once in a while.. The thing is no one can predict everything right and 50% of the picks are based on the roster setup and the remaining 50% is pretty much a guess.. there are lots of factors that can attribute to that.. and if analysts/writers are wrong in their predictions just acknowledge it and move on.. No one’s keep talking about it everyday.. I rarely see talkshow hosts (diet coke) talk about their predictions (unless its right) after the season is over.. they just move onto another sport and conveniently ignore their predictions.. Even if someone calls and points it out, they tend to ‘forget’ what they said..

  43. Awais September 28th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

    when does pete leave?

  44. Awais September 28th, 2009 at 3:22 pm

    btw is PEte making a blog for the red sox when he leaves?

  45. randy l. September 28th, 2009 at 3:22 pm

    “Post-Pete depression setting in.”

    i’m glad pete’s leaving because it’s been a nice run here and it’s a nice stepping stone for him.

    i’m looking forward to his new blog there, and plan to make posts on it.

    this one will be fine with sam borden.

    one way you can tell if someone has done a good job with something is if there’s something to pass on.

    i think it’s safe to say pete has done a real good job here.

  46. MaineYankee September 28th, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    DT

    I must’ve missed when randy called Cashman a good GM. :lol:

  47. Darrin September 28th, 2009 at 3:24 pm

    haiku-man
    September 28th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
    -Darin

    No they won’t he’s a native of the state.They’ll cut him slack,and welcome him home.
    A guy’s gotta make a living,he’ll be fine.
    Plus how can anyone hate on Pete?
    ========================================

    LOL – thanks for the high comedy, haiku-man.

    Have you ever seen the ‘Nation’ when they lose to the Yankees? They eat their own.

    Cut him slack indeed.

  48. DJ September 28th, 2009 at 3:24 pm

    Pete I havent had the opportunity to wish you well with the move, like everyone else here I will miss your candid imput and the overall great job you have done for all us yankees fans. You will be missed greatly. It will be interesting getting our valuable yankee info from a new person, whose has a different style. I wish we could have you here forever (no homo) but you have to do whats best for you and your family….I mean all the players, managers, coaches, agents, and every day Joe’s do. We will miss you and you better stop by and post for all us fans.

  49. MaineYankee September 28th, 2009 at 3:25 pm

    randy

    I’m sure Pete was glad to hear you will be posting. :lol:

  50. DT - OPPC member September 28th, 2009 at 3:27 pm

    “DT
    I must’ve missed when randy called Cashman a good GM.”

    Maine – it’s called selective editing. “For Nothing” should be inserted there somewhere… ;-)

  51. Joba the Great September 28th, 2009 at 3:27 pm

    Your hetero status in still intact, DJ

  52. Nick von Clausewitz in SF September 28th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    DT: A truce is not the same as a peace treaty.

    Rex, I’m glad that the New York Times is divesting/has divested itself of its partial ownership of the Red Sox. That should raise the status of both entities.

  53. randy l. September 28th, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    DT-

    i predicted that the yankees would lose at least one starter for at least 15 games and have trouble with the fifth starter spot.

    but that’s like predicting haley’s comet comes every so many years.

    i also said the yankees had to make the playoffs or cashman and girardi would be gone.

    that’s one i’m glad we won’t know the answer on.

    cashman spent his money well. sabathia and teixeira are the real deal.

  54. TheSportsHernia September 28th, 2009 at 3:35 pm

    “My thought that Trey Hillman would be AL Manager of the Year was clouded by my heavy use of crack at the time apparently. Matsuzaka for Cy Young? Brilliant.”

    Only Monday, but that’s your quote of the week.

  55. Clay Buchholz Loves Laptops September 28th, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    One of my pre-season picks was Pete going to the Boston Globe. Damn! I should have put some money down.

  56. randy l. September 28th, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    “I’m sure Pete was glad to hear you will be posting.”- dripping sarcasm

    maine yankee-

    i’ll be surprised if pete doesn’t get some people from here posting on his new blog.

    i think most of the regulars here have learned the rules of civil engagement .

    i certainly couldn’t tick off red sox fans more that i have some yankee fans here and vice versa :)

  57. MaineYankee September 28th, 2009 at 3:44 pm

    i certainly couldn’t tick off red sox fans more that i have some yankee fans here and vice versa

    ———————————————————–

    Let me know when you’re going to post there. That would be fun to watch. :lol:

  58. Rishi September 28th, 2009 at 3:44 pm

    :arrow: game thread

  59. DT - OPPC member September 28th, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    DT: A truce is not the same as a peace treaty.

    Nick – you got me there. But I should at least get a point for using Acerbic Hatchet

  60. Pris September 28th, 2009 at 4:15 pm

    NL MVP: Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
    NL Cy Young: Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
    NL Rookie of the Year: Stephen Strasberg, Nationals
    NL Manager of the Year: Lou Piniella Cubs
    ******************************************************
    Pete I think you r better off staying in AL, you can’t be more wrong about these above prediction…

    You sure Redsux is not in NL?

  61. Nick in NJ September 28th, 2009 at 6:55 pm

    Really off on the Tigers too…

  62. GGBG (Magic Number: ZERO!) September 29th, 2009 at 8:10 am

    LOL @ all the doom-and-gloomers on the April prediction thread. Amazing how almost no one realized how big an impact Tex would make.

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