Pondering the postseason roster
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Sep 29, 2009 
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It’s all but official that the Yankees will choose the division series that starts Oct. 7. That series has an extra day off between the first two games and that allows them to use Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes without concern. It also would allow them to use three starters instead of putting Game 4 in the hands of Joba Chamberlain.
That said, let’s take a look at how the postseason roster could be made up. This is based on what Joe Girardi has had to say along with informal discussions with assorted people in the organization.
PITCHERS (10)
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP A.J. Burnett
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Mariano Rivera
RHP Phil Hughes
LHP Phil Coke
RHP Alfredo Aceves
RHP Joba Chamberlain
In assuming he’s healthy
RHP David Robertson
Three choices for one spot
RHP Brian Bruney
RHP Chad Gaudin
LHP Damaso Marte
Breakdown: Robertson will get two appearances (at least) in the next five games to show he’s healthy. If he does that, he’s in. Girardi went on the record Monday saying he was impressed with Marte and liked having two left-handers in the bullpen. But if the Yankees face Detroit, the only lefty hitters the Tigers have are Curtis Granderson and Aubrey Huff. Why add an extra lefty in that case? Minnesota has Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel. Gaudin is attractive in a seven-game series because of his versatility. But in a short series, Chamberlain and Aceves can give multiple innings if needed. For the first round, it could come down to Bruney or Marte with Gaudin biding his time until the ALCS.
POSITION PLAYERS (15)
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Robinson Cano
SS Derek Jeter
3B Alex Rodriguez
C Jorge Posada
LF Johnny Damon
CF Melky Cabrera
RF Nick Swisher
DH Hideki Matsui
OF Brett Gardner
C Jose Molina
In assuming he’s healthy
INF-OF Jerry Hairston
Four choices for three spots
C Francisco Cervelli
OF-3B Eric Hinske
INF Ramiro Pena
OF Freddy Guzman
Breakdown: I think Cervelli is in. Having a third catcher would allow them to use Posada as a DH and sit Matsui against a lefty if they choose. Or easily pinch run for Posada late in games. Hinske would be the “pop off the bench” guy in case that is needed. They traded for Guzman specifically for these five games. He will be strictly a pinch runner. With slow guys like Matsui and Posada in the lineup, they could need a second pinch runner. It also would give them the ability to start Gardner and still have speed on the bench. Pena is likely the odd man out unless Hairston can’t play.
Now keep in mind that in a seven-game series, the roster will change. Then you drop a position player (Guzman or Cervelli) and add a pitcher (Bruney, Gaudin or Marte).
Just for the record, the Yankees do not have to select which series they will take until an hour after the matchup has been decided. The postseason roster does not have to be finalized until the day of Game 1.
I think Marte makes it with Joba, Aceves, Coke, Robertson, Hughes, and Rivera in the bullpen.
Repost:
Yesterday I heard out of the corner of my ear that one of those teams (I don’t remember which one it was, Twins or Tigers – I think it was Tigers) had a winning record against lefties. Since the Yankees might line up CC then Andy, could this be a potential blip? And also, if it’s the team that does well against lefties, do they leave Marte off?
Joba could be use as short reliever or longman with Aceves available from 1-3 innings if necessary.
I think that they’ll take Marte to have 2 LHP out of the bullpen. I also think that Pena will be the odd man out among the position players.
Pena’s just as fast as Guzman, has more ML experience, can play multiple infield positions, and honestly just deserves it more.
If I were Girardi, it would come down to which one of them can bunt better.
I have to wonder if Hinske makes the post season roster. Yes he can have some pop, but he has hardly played games. How valuable is someone with pop who has sat out most of the season on the bench. If he plays in a lot of the remaining games, then maybe. I see Guzman being more likely due to his speed and wanting to have a player who might help create a run in a tight game.
I find it odd that Matsui wouldn’t face a LHP. He hits the lefties and righties well.
hinske can hit. they played that shift on him last night, and he pokes it through the left side of the infield. smart hitting.
I don’t think they are paying Marte all of that dough to ride the bench.
I think we will see Guzman and Pena being put into the remaining games to show how successful they are in specific situations.
Pena didn’t strike me as being as fast as Guzman, but both have some decent speed.
“Pena’s just as fast as Guzman”
No, he’s not.
Something I was pondering this morning regarding 2 second basemen.
One is having his 3rd year with an OPS+ of 120 or better (it’s 127 this year) has never been mentioned as a possible MVP candidate. In fact he’s been called lazy dozens of times. Dozens of Yankee fans also wanted him traded by any means necessary last year.
Another second baseman has had 1 season where his OPS plus was greater than 120 (last year) and he plays in a bandbox of a ballpark and is a mediocre road player for his career. There are also dozens of Yankee fans who would rather have him on their team.
Is there a media bias going on?
“I have to wonder if Hinske makes the post season roster.”
I think he makes it just because he’s the best hitter they have off the bench (Excluding Matsui).
86w183
I am hoping Hairston is able to go. I am not giving up on Robertson, I would actually rather have him than Bruney, but guessing early w/o seeing Robertson pitch, I am going w/ Bruney (who has replaced Farnsworth for making me nervous when he pitches)
Why would they sit Matsui against a lefty? He absolutely MASHES lefties. He is .285/.361/.623 for a .984(!) OPS against lefties. He has 13 HR’s in only 130 AB’s against lefties, or 1 HR for every 10 AB’s against lefties.
Sitting him against lefties would just be a sign that Girardi wasn’t paying attention.
The lineup for every playoff game (assuming perfect health) should be:
1. Jeter
2. Damon
3. Teixeira
4. Arod
5. Matsui
6. Posada
7. Cano
8. Matsui
9. Melky (Gardner should pinch run in many tight late game spots)
Fin.
No doubt Hinske can hit, but he hasn’t been playing much at all, and facing tough pitching he might not have good timing. I expect to see him in more of these remaining games, that may tell more about who will be the chosen ones.
Assuming its Detroit the splits indicate that Granderson is a significantly better hitter against righties than lefties. Huff is miserable against lefties and somewhat less miserable against righties. I doubt we let those two drive the roster decision on the staff. My sense though is that unless Bruney is able to replicate his April performance over the next 6 games its Marte. Fingers crossed for Robertson of course
The Cervelli, Hinske, Pena, Guzman choice is a tough one I think. It’s easy to make a decent case for each of them. I get a feeling it’s may come down to Pena or Guzman. I like having 3 catchers. Perhaps that will become a consideration at World Series time when they reassess for that round!
I know this is off topic, but has anyone seen the pictures of the Angels’ clubhouse celebration? Some of the players standing in a circle and pouring beer on Nick Adenhart’s jersey. The man died in a drunk driving accident. What do we make of this?
If they play the Tigers then I don’t see the need for 2 lefty’s in the pen. That would leave Marte off.
The Twins have a bunch of lefty hitters so you take both Coke and Marte if it’s the Twins.
I agree with Pete. I’d take Cervelli. You know Posada and Matsui will be pinch ran for late in games. May need another catcher.
Ooops:
The eigth hitter in my above list should be “Swisher” and not “Matsui.”
Does anyone know what Alfredo Aceves writes in the mound dirt before he pitches?
Gr8ful
September 29th, 2009 at 10:40 am
I know this is off topic, but has anyone seen the pictures of the Angels’ clubhouse celebration? Some of the players standing in a circle and pouring beer on Nick Adenhart’s jersey. The man died in a drunk driving accident. What do we make of this?
=======================
I think they were trying to include him/his memory in the celebration…no biggie
Er… Shelley Duncan re: position players?
I’m guessing Girardi will want an extra pitcher rather than the extra catcher. Just a hunch.
Girardi should put Guzman on the roster. I would hope he keeps both Guzman and Gardner on the bench for pinch running duties. If the Yanks have a rally going in the 7th and then again in the 8th or 9th they will need the extra runner.
Here is how the playoff teams have hit Coke this year.
BA/OBP/SLG
Minn .278/.381/.833 – 3 HRs (21 batters)
Det .000/.000/.000 (4 batters)
LAA .250/.286/.333 (14 batters)
Bos .154/.258/.308 – 1 HR (31 batters)
In regards to Damaso Marte’s status on the postseason roster…it will depend on who we play. The Tigers don’t have too many lefthanded threats so, if we play them Marte will not be on the roster. The Twins, on the other hand have Joe Mauer and Kevin Kubel to worry about. It possible that Marte could make the roster if we play Minn.
Good points Pete, if I was constructing this roster it would be as follows:
1.Jeter
2.Arod
3.Cano
4.Tex
5.Damon
6.Posada
7.Swish
8.Melky
9.Gardner
10.Matsui
11.CC
12.AJ
13.Andy
14.Mo
15.Phil
16.Coke
17.Robertson
18.Ace
19.Joba
20.Bruney
21.Molina
22.Hairston
23.Hinskie
24.Cervelli
25.Guzman
Based on the matchups the second lefty (Marte) should not be needed, but I wouldn’t argue it if he was put on the roster.
Have good day all and Pete thanks again.
Also, if it is ok Erica, that would be entry.
Call me crazy, but I think I would leave Joba off the ALDS roster and instead take Marte and Gaudin. Both have been pretty consistent lately. No time for experimenting with Joba back in the pen in a short series. Bruney is going to break something in the clubhouse when he hears he’s off the roster.
would love to see pena make the roster somehow..seems like he has that intangible “something” that translates to a clutch postseason performance
”
I know this is off topic, but has anyone seen the pictures of the Angels’ clubhouse celebration? Some of the players standing in a circle and pouring beer on Nick Adenhart’s jersey. The man died in a drunk driving accident. What do we make of this?”
I agree with Rishi. It sounds like they were trying to honor him.
“One is having his 3rd year with an OPS+ of 120 or better (it’s 127 this year) has never been mentioned as a possible MVP candidate”
He’s never really merited being mentioned as an MVP candidate, though he might have if he had his ’09 season last year.
“Dozens of Yankee fans also wanted him traded by any means necessary last year.”
Well, he sucked last year. That’s the way fans are.
“There are also dozens of Yankee fans who would rather have him on their team.
Is there a media bias going on?”
Where’s the connection? In one breath you say dozens of Yankees fans want the other guy and in the next you ask whether it’s because of media bias.
Do you really mean to ask whether many of your fellow Yankees fans are idiots? That they could fall victim to media bias….real or imagined? Or is it possible the other guy was a much better player than Cano was last year, and Yankees fans always want the better player? This year, Cano turned the tables. I don’t hear the clammoring for him to be traded any longer or that they’d want Pedroia rather than Cano. Do you?
Fans like performance. For whatever reason, Cano didn’t offer it last year and the fan base didn’t appreciate it. This time around he did and I don’t really see where the fans aren’t appreciating it in spades.
Peter. Thanks for this one. This is the type of info WE NEED ON THE THIS BLOG moving forward. Whoever is taking over this thing needs to keep this level of info flowing downhill to the unwashed masses.
“Bruney is going to break something in the clubhouse when he hears he’s off the roster.”
Hopefully it’s his hand, so there’s no controversy when he gets left off on the ALCS roster.
/thinks Bruney did a good job on Sunday!
Guy Incognito September 29th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Pena’s just as fast as Guzman, has more ML experience, can play multiple infield positions, and honestly just deserves it more.
===================================
Pena has played in 64 games and Guzman in 42. Neither is a seasoned vet so let’s throw that out. If you need a guy to steal a base Guzman is the one to go with. In the minor leagues and MLB he has stolen 450 bases (!) with an 84% success rate. Pena has stolen 37 out of 54 attempts. Pena will go first to third for you or score from first on a double but if you need a stolen base you really want Guzman. To put it another way, since 2005 Guzman has stolen 30 more bases than Brett Gardner and Ramiro Pena combined.
The YES guys, esp Kenny, the FOX guys and the ESPN guys have all be saying what a great 2nd baseman Cano is. I think being benched and hearing the lazy comments really bothered Cano and he has worked hard. He has a gliding style not a gritty style, but that doesn’t mean he is lazy. It probably also helps having Tex at 1st.
Cervelli is also an excellent bunter, and while not that fast, has a good intuitive understanding of how to run the bases.
I would say Hairston is the odd man out. He is the only one of the “extra” players who does not bring anything unique to the table.
Just call me Mr. Clutch September 29th, 2009 at 10:32 am
I find it odd that Matsui wouldn’t face a LHP. He hits the lefties and righties well.
===================================
Matsui’s splits:
vs RHP .278/.378/.479/.857
vs LHP .285/.361/.623/.984
Gaudin is in if we face the Tigers and Marte is in if we face the Twins.
Gaudin’s K/9 rate against right handed batters is much better then Bruney’s and so is his BB/9 rate as well.
“He’s never really merited being mentioned as an MVP candidate, though he might have if he had his ‘09 season last year.”
He’s never merited being an MVP candidate despite having 2 previous seasons where his OPS+ was the same as the the guy who won it last year?
“Well, he sucked last year. That’s the way fans are. ”
He sucked last year so his previous 2 seasons meant nothing?
“Where’s the connection? In one breath you say dozens of Yankees fans want the other guy and in the next you ask whether it’s because of media bias.
Do you really mean to ask whether many of your fellow Yankees fans are idiots? That they could fall victim to media bias….real or imagined? Or is it possible the other guy was a much better player than Cano was last year, and Yankees fans always want the better player? This year, Cano turned the tables. I don’t hear the clammoring for him to be traded any longer or that they’d want Pedroia rather than Cano. Do you?
Fans like performance. For whatever reason, Cano didn’t offer it last year and the fan base didn’t appreciate it. This time around he did and I don’t really see where the fans aren’t appreciating it in spades.”
Firstly, it was two different paragraphs that you pulled quotes from.
Why has the media never mentioned the guy as an MVP candidate despite this being his 3rd year where his numbers are as good or better than the guy who won it last year?
And yes, a lot of Yankee fans DO fall victim to media bias, whether you want to believe it or not. Cano had 1 BAD month and then an okay season after that. His bad April really did him in, his other months were decent.
Also, there were still people coming on this board, not to mention the radio stations who still would prefer Pedroia over Cano.
To those that think Phil is perfectly happy remaining in the pen for the rest of his career, what else is he going to say? He’s not one to complain – and being in the pen in the majors was preferrable to him being sent down to start…..in AAA. I’m sure he does like the pen, but he has repeatedly said that he prefers to be a starter, that he thinks of himself as a starter.
I can live with almost anyone,but hope Marte is not in the short series,he scares me in a CLOSE GAME.
I believe this is Mr. Abraham’s last day on the job. Thanks so much for what you’ve done here at the blog! For your great writing and interesting takes on the Yankees as a team and game by game. Your thoughts, right or wrong, provoked thoughts and argument. May good fortune follow you in your future.
Thanks Pete!
raymagnetic,
Pedroia winning last year is one of baseball’s mysteries. Quentin would have likely won if he didn’t break his arm on his bat in August. I thought Youkilis was also more deserving on his own team. The other playoff teams had nobody having great years, in most years Pedroia is way down the voting list.
However, I think the reason Cano doesn’t get consideration(this year or the year he hit .340) is that he is seen as a complimentary player, rather than a player who drives the team’s offense. He seems to struggle whenever he is put into the 5 hole, and of course the RISP is well documented, but he flourishes in the lower part of the order. Maybe with some age and maturity, he can become the feared number 2, 3, or 5 hitter who will be a perrenial MVP candidate.
Ed H-
If you are out there, you may get in
I don’t see why Coke deserves a spot over Marte. Just because he’s been there all year doesn’t excuse how poorly he’s pitched the past month or so. Marte’s numbers are deceiving. I think he’s looked good since coming back, save the one bad outing against Baltimore.
Great info pete.. we are sure going to miss these starting tomorrow.. I think Bruney for ALDS and Marte for ALCS makes sense.. We have coke for the matchup against lefties.. plus we have joba, hughes and mariano ready for the late innings.. They can get lefties out too.. So marte could be just dead weight on the roster..
You gotta take Hinske. This will be his 3rd straight World Series appearance… Assuming we make it of course.
I don’t want Bruney on the post-season roster, nevermind what he did against the Sox recently. I would choose Gaudin…..He can get K and give you an inning or two if needed. I don’t know that he can be trusted, but I know Bruney can’t be.
Just don’t see how Cervelli makes the roster. Posada is not going to DH in the ALDS. Matsui will start every game at DH. He’s had a great year, hits lefties very well AND has had a ton of clutch hits. Girardi will not sit him. I think the Yanks are much more likely to go with 11 pitchers and bring both Bruney and Marte. It’s true that Granderson and Huff are their only LHB, but Guillen is a much better hitter from the left side so you’d want every opportunity to turn him around.
I also would consider leaving Joba off the ALDS roster and have him work on the side.
Hi Erica, didn’t realize you were having a roster game. Can I enter?
1 Tex
2 Cano
3 Jeter
4 Arod
5 Matsui
6 Posada
7 Damon
8 Melky
9 Brett
10 Swish
11 Hairston
12 Hinske
13 Molina
14 Cervelli
15 Guzman
16 CC
17 AJ
18 Andy
19 Gaudin
20 Hughes
21 Coke
22 Mo
23 Ace
24 Marte
25 Robertson
There’s no reason whatsoever to bring more than 10 pitchers to the postseason. I’d even go so far as to say 9 is enough in the ALDS, where you only need three starters.
Detroit has no lefty pitchers… Verlander, Jackson, Porcrllo are all righties. No need to sit Matsui.
Jeff NJ-
I’ll accept it
Girardi has used Marte this month like he is a LOOGY.
In that case, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to carry him AND Coke. Especially when this lineup has only 2 lefties (and Huff is hitting .150 with the Tigers. Granderson is their only real threat).
You would presumably use Marte or Coke for Granderson in the 7th or 8th. What are the chances Granderson comes up twice between the 6th and 8th?
If they go with 10 pitchers and take the longer series, I think Damaso is in. Although, they have long carried an umbilical cord attached to Bruney, we may need the situational lefty more than Bruney.
I think Pena stays home.
If we’re blessed enough to pass the first round, I think they find a way to get Gaudin on to give some insurance for the Joba.
The Yankees are starting their own Bowl game: The Yankee Bowl
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Hello Erica, Can you add me too? BTW, who is still in the running for total victories prediction?
1 Tex
2 Cano
3 Jeter
4 ARod
5 Matsui
6 Posada
7 Damon
8 Melky
9 Gardner
10 Swisher
11 Hairston
12 Hinske
13 Molina
14 Guzman
15 Mo
16 CC
17 AJ
18 Andy
19 Joba
20 Hughes
21 Bruney
22 Coke
23 Aceves
24 Gaudin
25 Robertson
Peepee Hands
September 29th, 2009 at 11:24 am
You gotta take Hinske. This will be his 3rd straight World Series appearance… Assuming we make it of course.
—————————————-
may be call him lucky hinskey…
Mark in Tampa,
I agree with you. I just find it weird how Robinson Cano his viewed versus how Dustin Pedroia is viewed.
To tick off the beat writers (and one soon to be ex-beat writer) –
Joe Girardi will make his final roster decisions based on who can bunt the best.
Chicks dig the bunt. Small ball is where it’s at.
“Why has the media never mentioned the guy as an MVP candidate despite this being his 3rd year where his numbers are as good or better than the guy who won it last year?”
Bad timing. Like I said, if Cano has ’09′s numbers last year, the Yankees are quite possibly in the playoffs and he’s getting heavy consideration. In 2007, he’s on a team with 4 guys who got votes, including the MVP himself. In 2006, he only played 122 games and was still named on some ballots. In ’05 he did finish 2nd in the ROY voting in a year where 5 different players received 1st place votes, so it’s not as though his accomplishments have gone without notice. I’d guess this year he does finish somewhere between 10th and 15th, trailing no less than three Yankees and perhaps as many as 5.
Cano’s overall numbers are excellent, but there is no way he gets an MVP hitting around .200 with RISP. He has had a couple moments like last night’s Slam but overall, no way.
Imagine that he has a respectable average with RISP and what his numbers would be. instead of .322/25/84? maybe .340/ 25/100? maybe more?
RayVT-
I’ll accept the entry. I have no idea who is in the running for the total victories. Trisha posted an updated list during last night’s game thread. Check that out
Vader-
I will accept the entry
Here’s mine. I am assuming the series with more time off and the Tigers as the opponent.
Position Players (15)
Shoe-ins (12)
Jeter
Arod
Damon
Tex
Swisher
Melky
Cano
Gardner
Posada
Molina
Matsui
Probables
Hairston (assuming he is healthy)
Guzman
Pena
Cervelli
Left Off
Hinske – I don’t see who he should pinch hit for. His defense is a liability, he is not fast. I don’t see what value he would bring. With Guzman, Hairston, and Pena give enormous versatility, speed, and defense. Would you rather have Ramiro Pena or Eric Hinske playing the field?
Pitchers (10)
Shoe-ins (8)
Sabathia
Pettite
Burnett
Mo
Hughes
Coke
Aceves
Robertson (assuming he is healthy)
Probables
Bruney
Chamberlain
Left Out
Marte and Gaudin. Marte does not make sense if we play the Tigers. They have two lefties. That does not justify a roster spot. I had a harder time picking Chamberlain or Gaudin. I dont think this spot will even matter, but I’d rather have Joba of sound mind then of shaken confidence in the ALCS assuming it gets that far. As for Bruney – 95+ with a chip on his shoulder (hopefully not in his shoulder) is a no brainer for me. Power wins in the playoffs.
Thoughts?
Guzman is the better base stealing threat & we’ve been on the wrong side of that before so I think he is in.
I think Pena should be in not only for his speed, but for versatility on defense throughout the infield. When he was sent down earlier this year he worked in the outfield at Scranton to make himself more valuable too. Nothing personal against Hairston but until he can prove he doesn’t have any problems swinging the bat I’d keep him off the roster.
Erica,
I’m a long term reader and finally decided to post today. There are many posters that speak from the heart as well as the head and bring an enjoyable insight here. I find that your posts are not only enjoyable but a breath of fresh air to this blog. I’ve had the occasion to meet your PBF and he’s really a good guy.
If possible I’d like to submit my P/S roster.
1 Tex
2 Cano
3 Jeter
4 Arod
5 Matsui
6 Posada
7 Damon
8 Melky
9 Brett
10 Swish
11 Hairston
12 Hinske
13 Molina
14 Cervelli
15 Guzman
16 CC
17 AJ
18 Andy
19 Gaudin
20 Hughes
21 Coke
22 Mo
23 Ace
24 Bruney
25 Robertson
“I agree with you. I just find it weird how Robinson Cano his viewed versus how Dustin Pedroia is viewed.”
Because Boston’s lineup is not as deep as the Yankees, it could be argued that Pedroia’s role in their lineup is more important to Boston’s success than Cano’s is to the Yankees’. Not sure that’s true, but I can see the argument. Also think that one’s role as a tablesetter vs. Cano’s as a 6/7 hitter might lend to differing viewpoints.
If you feel media bias is an issue, why aren’t you asking why Jeter has so much MVP talk around him while Cano has none? Media darlings aren’t limited to the Red Sox.
Still beating that drum raymagnetic? At least you’re not spouting racial bias garbage at the moment.
Cano was awful last year. He has even admitted it in interviews. He’s thanked his coaches a thousand times in interviews for helping him get back to this level.
This year he’s been incredible in the field and outside of the RISP issue, he’s been a force at the plate.
And for the record no one was advocating trading him for garbage. We were talking about Matt Kemp who is also having a monster year in LA.
Bruney has to sit out the first round. Dont you think?
I agree with you on the position players, Pete, but I would go with Jeff NJ and leave Joba off the roster (just for the ALDS) in favor of Marte and Gaudin. Let Joba focus on his game 4 start in the ALCS.
Gaudin has been too good to leave off.
Pete,
Morneau is a lefty. That’s a pretty big omission. If they play the Twins, I’d think they’d go with two lefties. If Detroit, one.
Guzman AND Cervelli… no Hinske.
Pinch run for Posada with Guzman… then replace him with Molina and still have a 3rd catcher.
Gardner as a PR for Matsui.
JN – Morneau is out for the year
JN,
Morneau is out for the rest of the year with stress fracture in his back
Nice article about Pena’s big night.
http://www.nj.com/yankees/inde.....ro_pe.html
I think Cashman would cut off his arm rather than leave Joba off the roster. What a PR disaster that would be to leave a “core” member of the Yankees off the ALDS Roster.
Not saying your opinion is right or wrong, just can’t see no Joba on the roster.
“If we’re blessed enough to pass the first round, I think they find a way to get Gaudin on to give some insurance for the Joba.”
I agree. They’ll give Joba the start in Game 4, but they’ll pull him if he shows any signs of losing it. Gaudin would get the ball in that situation.
One thought for why Cervelli would be thought of for being included (though I don’t really think he will) is to pinch run for Posada in late innings. While he isn’t going to steal bases, he is pretty quick for a catcher. That still allows for the speed demons to be used for others who aren’t as fleet of foot, like Swisher.
If they go with Hinske, then the case for having Cervelli may increase as it would mean Guzman wasn’t on the roster.
I have a feeling that a team that regularly carried 13 pitchers this season could go with 11 in the first round. I also don’t know about Cervelli. It seems like overkill.
A major distraction would be more accurate to say than a PR disaster.
JN
September 29th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Pete,
Morneau is a lefty. That’s a pretty big omission. If they play the Twins, I’d think they’d go with two lefties. If Detroit, one.
————————————————————
Morneau is out for the year. However, Jason Kubel is every bit as dangerous a lefy handed power hitter. Add in Denard span and the first 5 hitters in that order are a headache for any right or left handed pitchers.
I don’t understand why everyone (including possibly the Yankee brass) assumes that they are better off with the longer series. Both series allow the #1 starter to pitch twice. The longer series allows the #2 starter to pitch a second time in place of the #4. Yes, I’d rather have Pettitte/AJ pitch than Joba/Gaudin. But, every team’s #2 is better than their #4. The real question is how much are we helped vs. how much are the opponents helped. Has anyone looked at the Tigers pitching staff, They essentially don’t have a healthy #4. In their crucial 4 game series with the Twins, they are starting one pitcher who has only started 5 times all year and another who has only started 3 times. There’s a reason that a team with Verlander (17-9), Jackson (13-8) and Porcello (14-9) is only 11 games over .500 for the season. In comparison, the Yankees’ big 3 is a collective 22 games over .500 but the team is 45 over. The biggest difference between the two teams pitching staffs is the Yankees superior depth which is less and less important the longer the series is stretched out.
Thanks Erica! It is a good thing I’m not younger & single, or I’d be stalking you! LOL!
Carrying more than ten pitchers for a five game series with three off days would be absurd. They could probably get by with nine.
To me Gaudin is the odd man out with Marte getting the nod over Bruney IF Robertson is ready to go.
Gaudin can be the 11th guy for the ALCS, but if the starters are strong through the LCS I’d probably stay with ten.
Hairston or Pena, but not both. Cervelli would be a more useful 25th guy than a second utility infielder. I like having Hinske on the roster… he’s just a professional hitter who seems to like big situations.
Matsui has been great against LHP this year (.984 OPS)
That was not a bright comment.
I think the bigger advantage to taking the “longer” series is it has built in rest days for the bullpen and the players. Resting Alex and Posada as well as Hughes could be important.
It may be that the decision on which series to take will be dependent on which team they end up facing.
RayVT:
Off topic, but that was a pretty dazzling performance by the Hokies last weekend. Best team in the ACC by far based on what I’ve seen.
Rick —
Excellent analysis of the series debate, but you are viewing it from what’s worst for the opponents which to me is sorta defeatist.
The confident view is what’s best for the NYY, and that is clearly getting CC into two of the first four games. Personally I would throw AJ in game two, but that’s sure debatable. I just like Pettite’s experience and history in the first road game of the post-season.
86w183 I agree about Matsui hitting lefties well, but remember Girardi has sat him against lefties during the season.
I think Hairston gets the nod over Pena if his wrist is OK.
Being the best team in the ACC is like being the finest surfer in all of Idaho.
Come down to the SEC if you want to see college football at the highest level.
I leave Guzman off. He offers no bat at all. Between Gardner/Pena they have enough speed to play with. Pena also adds more versatility in the field with a much better bat. The kid is flying high right now too.
As far as pitchers….it really is going to come down to how well they perform down the stretch. Robertson could go either way, hes been hurt. There is no telling if he will be ready with only 2 appearances. Seeing if Bruney has turned a corner this week will also be interesting to see. If either of them stumble then Gaudin is in. Marte gets left off no matter what because of no need to carry two lefties.
Am I the only one who thinks that Marte and Gaudin are in over Robertson and for the 3rd spot?
Here is who I think is going in…
1. Sabathia
2. Burnett
3. Pettitte
4. Mo
5. Hughes
6. Coke
7. Aceves
8. Joba
9. Gaudin
10. Marte
11. Tex
12. Cano
13. Jeter
14. Arod
15. Posada
16. Molina
17. Pena
18. Cervelli
19. Damon
20. Melky
21. Swisher
22. Gardner
23. Hinske
24. Hairston Jr. (assuming wrist is okay)
24. Guzman (if Hairston Jr’s wrist is not okay)
25. Matsui
“Not saying your opinion is right or wrong, just can’t see no Joba on the roster.”
I think there is probably some small argument that Joba hasn’t really earned a spot on the ALDS roster, but I agree it’s one Cashman is going to dismiss. Beyond the fact that whatever edge they’d gain in keeping Gaudin or Marte/Bruney over him is pretty minimal, it’s just not the message you want to send to a 23 year old who has struggled for most of last 2 months. If the plan is to use him as a Game 4 starter in the ALCS, you want him a confident pitcher heading into that outing, and leaving him off the roster does nothing but erode whatever confidence is there, IMO.
Rex
Yes it was quite nice to see them play Miami that well. I enjoyed the game! LOL! It makes you wonder if somehow the Hokies had gotten by AL in the 1st game what this team could be looking at. The season is still young and anything can happen.
I also enjoyed the Yankees sweep of Boston! LOL! Hope it continues also!!
“Come down to the SEC if you want to see college football at the highest level.”
Sure…if I went to Jacksonville or Tuscaloosa (sp?). Otherwise, not so much. Florida and Bama are the two best in the nation IMO, but it’s a looooong way down from there to whoever the 3rd best team in the SEC (LSU?).
Just saw that Bobby V is back at ESPN.. would be better than listening to john kruk or karl ravech..
http://www.nj.com/mets/index.s....._vale.html
he could be managing some team next season.. may be the astros??
Thanks Pete!
I´ll miss you! But only until we meet you in the AMerican Championship against the EVIL Empire!
SO See you
Your BIG FAN from GErmany!
‘Whoever is taking over this thing needs to keep this level of info flowing downhill to the unwashed masses.’
Speaking as a WASHED mass, I think there should, indeed, be more ‘hard information items’, especially pieces garnered from both the clubhouse and around the batting cage.
Robertson is the 3rd or 4th best reliever on the team. if he’s healthy, he’ll be on the roster.
The longer series makes sense for the Yanks because it allows Hughes and Mo to pitch in every game. I think they may ask Hughes to get 5 outs and Mo to get 4 in a real tight game. So having the built in rest will be huge.
86w183
Best of ACC! LOL! While that is somewhat true, the SEC is down this year except UF/AL/LSU. MSU/ARK/V/UK/UT/Aub/GA/SC are not that great. If you look at the SEC’s out of conference scheds they are filled with AA schools and loses to good teams. It looks like the PAC-10 is best conf this year. Personally, I think VT could play any team tough including UF. I think Texas would be the most difficult team for VT to play close as they are more balanced on Offense.
John (Des Moines)
How many more solid years do you think Pettite has in him?
Rob Neyer (12:32 PM)
Five or six. Considering how many lefties we’ve seen lately, pitching effectively into their early 40s, I think Pettitte might pitch forever and I wouldn’t rule out 300 wins.
The roster I chose is a mess. I probably shouldnt have added Pena over Guzman
I’d leave Cervelli off in the first round because he’s the #3 catcher and Hairston can always catch if we ever needed a #3/Emergency catcher. Especially just in the first round. That would give us room for an extra arm.
Bruinsinruins (NYC)
So if Pettite goes six more years and wins 12/yr, leaving him with 301 wins over 21 years (and an ERA over 4.00), would you vote thumbs up?
Rob Neyer (12:37 PM)
I’d have to look a bit closer, but I think 301 wins plus a fine postseason record would put him over the top for me.
Matt (Boston)
Rob, about Pettite, if he isn’t a HOFer now, how do 6 years of very average performance get one into the HOF? Makes no sense. You are rewarding mediocrity when the standard should be excellence
Rob Neyer (12:42 PM)
First off, there’s some real value in 200 average innings. And second, why do you assume he’ll be average? He’s been 10 percent better than average this season, while pitching in the best division in the best league. I mean, let’s be honest about this thing, right?
“For instance, Tigers ace Justin Verlander is scheduled to If the Twins continue to hang around, Verlander would be lined up to pitch in the regular-season finale on Sunday, October 4, which would likely keep him out until Game 3 of the playoffs.”
If anything, I hope the Twins stick around and fight until the end…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....z0SVzBmCR8
Isn’t it Pete’s last day today?
they’ll be taking one less position player and one more pitcher than the scenario you put forth. Both Bruney and Marte will be on the roster. Hinske and Guzman will be the two position players. Pena will replace Hairston if he’s not healthy.
Confident girardi will make the right moves here.
Has anyone heard anything on Chen Ming Wang.
The last I heard was that barring any setbacks he should be able to report to Spring Training.
He doesn’t even have a deal with the Yanks after Nov.
This season I have learned not to question Girardi often becomes you usually end up looking stupid when you do, but if it even crosses his mind to sit Matsui against a tough lefty (lets say Lester is the situation arises) that will easily be the dumbest move he makes all year and Pete if you even think that is a possibility I would really like to know why.
Wang will likely be non-tendered making him a FA. the Yanks would have to offer him too much to control his rights. I’m sure they’ll try to sign him to a Lieber-like deal if they can.
Ray VT — You did see the Alabama game, right? 3-to-1 difference in total yardage. Va. Tech is a very good program, but the gap between the SEC and ACC is pretty pronounced. Could be a Va. Tech/ Boise St Orange Bowl this year.
Pettite has gone 15 seasons without a single season with a losing record and has won at least 12 games 14X. Can’t see him getting Cooperstown consideration, but Monument Park recognition is certainly called for. Which reminds me, why hasn’t Bernie been added? His Yankee career dwarfs many of those who have been honored out there.
I don’t see why Hairston is the clear choice over Pena. With Gardner, Guzman, and Hinske on the roster, Hairston’s value in the outfield isn’t that great. As far as infield defense goes, I think Pena is at least as good as Hairston and isn’t coming off an injury. Hairston has the advantage on offense, but how important is that for the utility infielder?
I think health will be the biggest factor in Hairston/Pena and Robertson/Bruney decisions.
Feel bad for Bruney is he gets skipped, but two or three capable pitchers and two or three capable position players will be left off.
That’s depth.
Hinskes value would be that after you pinch run for Matsui(with Guzman)in the 7th you pinch hit Hinske for Guzman in the 9th.So at least there is a continuous threat behind Arod.
I don’t see Matsui sitting this time of year either.Pete didn’t think that one out.
Joey’s Dad:
That came directly from several people on the staff. I did think it out. They want the option.
86w183
Yes I saw the AL game and yes AL looked awfully good and better than VT. What I said was, since VT was winning until the end of the game, that if they had somehow hung on to win that one it could have powered then into the finals provided the Hokies find a way to win out.
The SEC is down this year for SEC standards. I don’t think the 3rd best team in the ACC, LSU, is that good. The SEC is a 2 headed beast in AL & UF. UF misses Harvin & the concussion to Tebow could cause real concerns for them going undefeated. They could lose 2 games if Tebow is not starting.
ugg!
ACC should have been SEC
GreenBeret7
Morneau is out for the year. However, Jason Kubel is every bit as dangerous a lefy handed power hitter
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Kubel is every bit as dangerous as Morneau? Really? Come on….
I think Marte would be the smartest choice to add to the postseason roster, Having the luxury of having two solid lefty arms out of the bullpen could play to extremely beneficial. While I think Gaudin has earned a spot on this team, he may be better suited for the second round of play.
Pena deserves to be there,but Guzman is pretty fast.
Pete….would they really sit Matsui to play Molina?
I don’t think Cervelli makes it. Girardi has had chances to pinch hit for Molina late in games recently, and hasn’t done it. If he doesn’t do it in regular season, I don’t think he will do it in postseason.
Cervelli is out the first series. The Tigers don’t start a lefty in the long series and if they do its (homer happy)Washburn. Have to have Matsui against him. I thought I heard that matsui led in homers against lefthanders?
why even bother with Joba on the roster in the first round since he won’t be starting?
he has lousy first innings and hasn’t pitched from the pen all year. go with Gaudin who’s done both this year and done both well while with the Yankees.
It’s very clear that Gaudin’s performance was better than Joba and Coke.He worked hard and did his best.
Joba still struggles with his problems.
Coke often bumble in the clutch.
If I was Giradi,I will choice Gaudin.
Cervelli must be in,because Molina lacks of hitting power and Posoda lacks of catcher’ capability.
Everybody could see Cervelli seeked good performance in every games,and he got it.
It’s difficult to understand why does write Freddy Guzman.
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Here is who I think must be in…
1. Sabathia
2. Burnett
3. Pettitte
4. Mo
5. Hughes
6. Aceves
7. Gaudin
8. Robertson(But his healty must be fine)
(for three or two spots)
Joba/Coke/Bruney/Marte/…..
1. Jeter
2. A-Rod
3. Tex
4. Cano
5. Matsui
6. Swisher
7. Melky
8. Demon(But his performance was terrible recently.)
9. Posada
10. Molina
11. Cervelli
12. Hinske
13. Gardner (But his hitting was worse.)