The October Crystal Ball …
Posted by: Sam Borden - Posted in Misc on Oct 07, 2009 
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… is usually pretty cloudy. At least for me. But as I mentioned in the last post, I predicted a Yankees sweep over the Twins in my scouting report, so we’ll start there. Pitching kills in the playoffs and, for me, the Yankees have it in this series.
How about the rest of the Division Series? Here’s how I see it breaking down:
Phillies over Rockies in 4
Dodgers over Cardinals in 5
Angels over Red Sox in 5
Then I’ve got the Yankees over the Angels in 7 in the ALCS and the Dodgers over the Phillies in 6 in the NLCS, setting up the Joe Torre Reunion in the World Series. As much as I like Torre, though, he can’t stop this train. Yankees in 6 for the title.
So there you have it. Bet your house on No. 27 coming this fall. Just don’t bet mine.
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UPDATE, 10:40 a.m.: Yankees final roster is out: Cervelli, Gaudin and Marte are in. Guzman is out. Not much surprise since the Twins are so lefty-heavy.
—–
Live chat starts at noon. Get in the Game 1 mood with Chad Jennings and me right here.
I don’t care how I just want 11 more wins!!!
I don’t know how I’m going to get any work done today knowing the playoffs start in 8 hours!!!!
Sam, are you a Yankee fan?
LETS GO YANKS! See you all at the stadium!
Dodgers won’t beat the cards. Not gonna happen.
I hate making predictions because I’m superstitious, but I’ve got a feeling this year I haven’t had in a long time.
Feisand has the rosters. Cervelli, Marte, and Gaudin are in. Joba is in the pen.
Catchers: Jorge Posada, Jose Molina, Francisco Cervelli
Infielders: Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jerry Hairston
Outfielders: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Eric Hinske
Designated hitter: Hideki Matsui
Starting pitchers: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte
Relief pitchers: Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Phil Coke, Damaso Marte, Dave Robertson, Alfredo Aceves, Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo.....z0TGEwGSJz
Same here Rebecca. I feel like it’s all a jinx.
I’m not getting my hopes up. After the past 9 years (and more specifically since 2004), I’ve learned that we can’t take anything for granted. The Yankees have managed to blow almost every series they’ve been in. It’s so upsetting
I want 27!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow, they are carrying Cervelli. Very interesting.
Well, my prediction of the roster was wayyyy off
repost for CB:
October 7th, 2009 at 10:35 am
CB,
Good analysis.
Like I said, I understand why people don’t like the move, but the Yankees (by and large, pretty smart baseball people) have made their choice.
They probably feel that Jose behind the plate will achieve a certain result (otherwise they wouldn’t go with it, right?).
They probably know that Jorge’s not guaranteed to produce, and that there’s a chance (albeit small) that Jose might actually contribute at the plate. Because baseball’s a funny sport, and in the words of the immortal John Sterling, “you just never know”.
Girardi’s going on gut instinct. And he’s seen with his own eyes the difference. Otherwise, Jorge would be penciled in for Friday.
========================================
Angels v. Yankees
Phillies v. Cards
Yankees over Cards in no more than 7.
This should be fun.
Don’t expect me on the internet at game time, the blog will be totally, completely insane and I want no part of it.
Trisha,
My Division series picks
Yanks in 4
Boston in 5
St Louis in 5
Phillies in 4
Thanks:)
No more than 7?
“Wow, they are carrying Cervelli. Very interesting.”
Their committment to start Molina in Burnett’s starts kind of compels them to.
It would be good when predicting to include reasoning. GL
I like the roster. I have no complaints with it. I actually felt that Guzman didn’t really deserve a spot. Something about the way he runs scares me since he always seems like he’s falling down.
As long as Hairston is healthy then Pena isn’t really needed as much as Cervelli is.
I’m really pumped. I’m sitting in the batters eyes seats on top of the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar tonight. Should be interesting to watch the game from out there.
they kind of have to carry Cervelli.
G Love
I wondered what Batters Eye Seats were. Are they outdoor seats or in the Bar itself?
I don’t like carrying Cervelli. It would make more sense to carry Guzman since we have Hairston, who’s a suitable “break glass in case of emergency” catcher.
“I hate making predictions because I’m superstitious, but I’ve got a feeling this year I haven’t had in a long time.”
Ditto.
I’m kind of surprised by the number of people picking the Angels over Sox considering the history.
Counting on the Sox starters having issues and the Angels to conduct a track meet on the bases?
ANNOUNCEMENT
Guess the Postseason Roster winners will be annouced towards the start of the game tonight
“I don’t like carrying Cervelli. It would make more sense to carry Guzman since we have Hairston, who’s a suitable “break glass in case of emergency” catcher.”
That’s what you sacrifice with the Molina decision. Molina will almost certainly be pinch hit for at some point and you can’t run the risk of Posada getting dinged and having to go to a non-catcher to catch.
pat,
They are the seats that are on top of the Mohegan Sun Bar outside.
The postseason roster has already been announced, Erica.
Wait till the ALDS, Cervelli give the Yankees the ability to not only pinch hit Posada but also pinch run for him with Guzman. I will be surprised if Cervelli DOESN’T do something special in this series. Just having his energy in that clubhouse will have a positive effect.
Another reason the Molna decision is a bad one, then.
Chances of needing both Gardy and Speedy Gone-Guzman in the same game is very slim. Cause, you know the game’s over when Gardy gets on the bases. Just kidding!
At least you know you’ll be using the extra lefty, Girardi said as much yesterday. There’ll be more opportunities.
I do like Chad Gaudin on the roster. Although it’s very likely we won’t see him make an appearance.
Anyone have a problem with marte over bruney? (not me)
I think Cervelli is being carried because of the Molina start. I assume that Jorge comes into the game once Burnett goes out. Girardi would not be comfortable doing that if Hairston was his only other catcher. If they had decided to use Jorge to start every game, they would probably have Guzman instead of Cervelli.
Guzman is not on the postseason roster.
m,
I didn’t want Bruney on the roster. You know he’d walk the first batter he faced.
I’m glad Cervelli is on the roster. Hopefully the Twinkies will be mesmerized by his glare. With Molina starting at least 1, maybe 2 games, then Cervelli has to be included.
Say game 2 is a tie game in the bottom of the 6th. Molina is due up but there are guys on base. Posada should hit in that spot. Then Posada can be pinch run for if the need arises in the 9th or extra innings.
The surprise to me is Gaudin. I wonder if Girardi would use him as a ROOGY. He’s murder on righties.
http://www.baseball-reference......;t=p#plato
Dodgers over Cardinals? What are u smoking?
Just the fact the Joe is focusing on pitching and small ball going into this ALDS makes me think that Girardi is treating the HR as a luxury and not a given and that to me is a very healthy attitude to have – and will almost insure that the HR becomes a factor!
Wait till the ALDS
October 7th, 2009 at 10:52 am
The postseason roster has already been announced, Erica.
****
I am aware of that, but I have a job and do not have time to go through 30 25-man roster submissions right now. Plus the complete file is on my computer at home. Not here
I will announce the winners tonight
i like the moves, thought all along 11 pitchers was the way to go. you never know when extras come along, like last night….rodney too long. guzman was overkill.
it’s like Christmas..will 6pm get here already!?
Wait,
I know. Should’ve worded that the “chances would have been slim”.
The roster makes no sense.
8 relievers – 3 won’t be used. The third catcher is useless because there aren’t enough pinch runners/pinch hitters to justify the third catcher given the 8 relievers.
Freddy Guzman was useful – he could steal a base or substitute defensively. The 8th reliever is useless. The Yanks don’t need all three of Chamberlain, Aceves and Gaudin for long relief protection.
And the idiocy of starting Molina (CB – I was harping about the .1 run differential per plate appearance all day yesterday and nobody cared).
I’m getting a worried feeling that Girardi is going to over-manage and small-ball this thing, and that the Yanks’ management is perhaps over-confident about the team’s prospects for success. I know a lot of fans are.
Hope I’m wrong, but I don’t like the decisions made so far.
HELP!
Anyone have a clue what time Sunday’s game might start???
Jus pointing that out, m.
Sounds good to me! Very exciting here in Minnesota – I have to keep my Yankee love under control amongst all the fair weather fans jumping aboard the Twins soon-to-sink ship. Go Yanks!
Sam – From your lips . . .
My predictions were pretty much the same, except I think I have the Sox over the Angels in 5, and then Yanks over the Sox in 7.
They might be taking Cervelli because he runs pretty well for a catcher so he could be put in as a pinch runner for Posada or Molina if some speed on the basepaths is needed.
Plus, many here also think there is some strange power with his eyes that will negatively affect the oppositions batters. lol.
Guzman has speed and may get selected if the Yanks face the Angels, but he isn’t great at stealing bases.
Another reason for Cervelli may be to have a back up catcher for AJ/Molina when Posada gets put back in. I wouldn’t count on Hairston being a backup catcher when he was never given a chance at that role this year.
“chances would have been slim”.
OT, but I still wonder why fat chance and slim chance mean the same thing.
Tyler Kepner had an interesting bit of analysis in the NY Times today. He compares the Yankees’ starters since the 2004 debacle to one of Houston’s starters this year, Felipe Paulino. Paulino’s record – 2-11, 5.69, 11 hits/9 IP.
And the Yanks’ starters since that 2004 fall0ff – 2-11, 6.30, and 11 hits/9 IP. So, over the past 5 years, the Yankees have been trotting out Felipe Paulino to win playoff games for them.
This year, with CC, AJ (for all his issues), and Andy lined up. Seems a lot more promising than what we have been trotting out there. I think this is as important, if not more so, than Posada-Molina. I keep thinking, it’s all about the pitching.
“I’m kind of surprised by the number of people picking the Angels over Sox considering the history.”
I think history is why people are picking the Angels. It’s too easy to pick the Sox again. Sooner or later the Angels have to break through, and this year’s Sox team is very beatable. Interesting thing is the Angels have had better teams. Their bullpen is weak, the starters are solid but not necessarily lock-down, and Vlad hasn’t hit well in the playoffs.
Paul
October 7th, 2009 at 10:58 am
HELP!
Anyone have a clue what time Sunday’s game might start???
***
Mlb.com still lists it as TBD. Sorry!
This idiocy with Molina makes the Yanks carry 3 catchers on their 25 man post season roster when they don’t even do that on their 25 man regular season roster.
Oh well, the time for complaining is over.
Go win 3 of 5, baby!!
I like the roster. I am not a big believe that Guzman was going to make a huge difference. Cervelli gives you an option as a pinch runner. He is not in the caliber of a true speedster, but if you want to run for Posada or Molina, he would be a huge upgrade and could take over behind the plate. He could also run for someone like Matsui, for whom a tortoise would be a major speed upgrade.
what if aceves goes 5 innings for burnett? then there are extra innings on sunday? gaudin would be needed. rather have the extra pitcher than a p.runner.
“They might be taking Cervelli because he runs pretty well for a catcher so he could be put in as a pinch runner for Posada or Molina if some speed on the basepaths is needed.”
Weak argument. Cervelli may run pretty well for a catcher, but by any other standards he does not. In reality he’s just a slightly faster brand of slow than Posada and Molina are. He’s not on the team to pinch run.
“Guzman has speed and may get selected if the Yanks face the Angels, but he isn’t great at stealing bases. ”
Yeah, Guzman only stole 90 this year. Imagine what he could do if he was any good at it.
Clearly, Joe and Co. were not impressed with Guzman’s basestealing ability. I’m no pro, but it looks to me that although he is very fast, he doesn’t get good jumps off first.
Joe from Long Island wrote:
I keep thinking, it’s all about the pitching.
============
Especially when you have the kind of bullpen the Yankees have. A one run lead in the 5th and 6th for Girardi will force Gardenhire to panic thinking that he really only has until the 7th to get the lead back. CC and AJ don’t need to be perfect, 3 runs or less over 6 innings will almost guarantee wins for the Yankees.
Gaudin rather than Bruney — interesting. Gaudin would seem to be just an emergency wstarter, in case CC, AJ or Andy can’t pitch for some reason.
BTW does anyone know what the rule is for getting a substitute player in case of injury? During the regular season, the injured player can be put on a 15 day (or longer) disabled list and a replacement player can be used. Does the same rule apply throughout the post season?
If that rule applies during the World Series, it would seem that a manager might be able take advantage and get an extra player in some situations. E.g., if a starting pitcher went most of game 6 of the Series, he would be unavailable in Game 7. Could he be put on the 15 day disabled list and replaced with an extra player?
This never happens, so it must not be possible. However, does anyone know the exact rule?
“what if aceves goes 5 innings for burnett? ”
Surely that can’t happen, because Molina is going to cause AJ to pitch so well…
“Anyone have a clue what time Sunday’s game might start???”
We probably won’t know until it is determined whether either NL series will require a 4th game. Could be as many as 4 games on Sunday or a few as 2.
“I like the roster. I have no complaints with it. I actually felt that Guzman didn’t really deserve a spot. Something about the way he runs scares me since he always seems like he’s falling down.”
I agree 100%. He was not impressive. I always felt like he knew his role was to run, and that was his only role, so he pushed it too hard and, as a result, wasn’t smart about it.
I like Cervelli on the roster, as I said earlier. He gives a lot of energy and fills a nice role. This roster feels more like the ones the Yankees carried back in the late ’90s, when they weren’t all aging superstars, but rather, had a nice balance of role players (look at the ’98 team, amazing that they won so many games if you just consider raw talent).
I fail to understand why Girardi didn’t sit down with AJ and Jorge and say ‘you’ve had some great games together, I want Jorge’s bat in the lineup, why can’t you work together just like you did in those great games?’
It doesn’t seem to me that, if AJ pitches well in game 2, that he can simply make the change to Jorge for a deciding game 5 and, as CB noted, Jorge produces .4 runs per game more than Molina.
I posted stats yesterday that showed, with the exception of one game in Boston, AJ’s ERA with both catchers in about the same since the ASB. The only thing that makes sense to me is that Girardi believes the only way this game can be lost is if AJ has a meltdown during the game and by catching Molina it slightly reduces (but doesn’t eliminate it, nothing does) the chance that will happpen.
It’s Girardi’s decision, of course, but I think many of us would have preferred Jorge behind the plate and a short hook for AJ in game 2. The Yankees bullpen is so strong for the postseason using Aceves, Gaudin, and Joba in a game early would not be an issue.
i think you are selling the rockies & cardinals short
the cardinals have better pitching than the dodgers or at least good pitching & the rockies have jimene
pillies over rockies in 5
dodgers over cards in 6
the angels sweeping the rs??
i just dont see that happening
it would be a miracle if they beat lester in game 1
I like the roster, altho it was not what I guessed. I am glad Cervelli gets the chance to go, he has such high energy, and it will be good experience for him. I am glad Bruney is not going, altho I expected Girardi to bring him. Watching him pitch is like flashbacks of Farnsworth.
“The 8th reliever is useless. The Yanks don’t need all three of Chamberlain, Aceves and Gaudin for long relief protection.”
What if Burnett blows up on Friday, or if CC gets caught up in the buffet line in between innings?
You need a contingency plan. Aceves and Gaudin are contingencies. These guys will be available to pitch to 1 batter or 15 batters.
The Yankees are deep with pitching. Now is the time to that advantage of that depth.
Wave your hat, if AJ implodes Posada takes Molina’s next AB and Cervelli is the backup. Failed experiment, Posada loses one AB and probably starts next time AJ pitches.
I just hope Joba is good enough, and i see no reason why he wouldn’t be, that he loses his job as 4th starter in the ALCS to Gaudin.
AJ with Posada catching –
16 games, 434 plate app, 382 abs, 58 runs, 103 hits, 17 doubles, 1 triple, 13 homeruns, 13 SB, 8 CS, 46 bb, 79 ks , 1.72 K/BB, .270 BA, .353 OBP , .421 SLG, .775 OPS
AJ with Molina Catching –
11 games, 288 plate app, 253 abs, 26 runs, 56 hits, 12 doubles, 0 triple, 7 homeruns, 7 SB, 2 CS, 29 bb, 77 ks , 2.66 K/BB, .221 BA, .307 OBP , .352 SLG, .658 OPS
Was Guzan ever caught? Maybe I’m wrong but I didn’t think he was (pretty sure he was never picked off either for that matter), so I don’t know ow you can say he’s a bad pinch runner.
Can you post the full post-season roster now? I know you say it is out but I don’t see it anywhere and I’m having a hard time visualizing what it looks like. I’m guessing Joba is on the roster?
So Friday night if theres a bases loaded situation early in the game 3rd inning or
so with a chance to blow it out and molinas spot is up ,do you pitch hit with Posada???
Wave – yeah, but most of those were in the minors. How well do minor league pitchers hold on runners, or minor league catchers throw out runners?
As far as the number of pitchers goes, yes, you do not need a large pen if your starters give you length. But, if AJ implodes, do you leave him in for 5 or 6, or do you pull him in the 3rd? Hence, the potential need for Gaudin, whom they may see as more of a multiple inning option than Joba. And, Ace has not been stretched out to more than 1 or 2 innings, so I don’t think they’d go to him early. Just my thoughts.
“what if aceves goes 5 innings for burnett?”
10 minute time-out for you! That thinking is not acceptable.
“So Friday night if theres a bases loaded situation early in the game 3rd inning or so with a chance to blow it out and molinas spot is up ,do you pitch hit with Posada???”
No, it’s too early. 6th or 7th inning? Yes.
Just browsed through the espn athletes semi-nude photo gallery.
No Joba in this one. A lot of D-list athletes. Serena’s the most high profile athlete in it. Taken one at a time, I think the pictures would’ve been nice in a feature article on each athlete. But in a photo spread? Yuck. A collection of non-beautiful people.
Guzman was caught once, he had 4 steals. The opposition also knew he was going to go, so I would say he is pretty good at stealing bases. Not just on these 4, of course, but his whole career, even though it is mostly minor league.
Jason wrote:
So Friday night if theres a bases loaded situation early in the game 3rd inning or
so with a chance to blow it out and molinas spot is up ,do you pitch hit with Posada???
———-
If AJ is cruising, no. If he has racked up 70 pitches and has struggled, I say yes.
“The roster makes no sense.
8 relievers – 3 won’t be used. The third catcher is useless because there aren’t enough pinch runners/pinch hitters to justify the third catcher given the 8 relievers.”
They’ve created a relatively inflexible roster and much of this extends from the decision to start molina.
Cervelli is only being carried because they are already acknowledging that Molina will absolutely need to be pinch hit for.
How many other playoff teams will carry 3 catchers?
In effect carrying 3 catchers gives the yankees one less player to use in game situations compared to what other teams have at their disposal.
Starting Molina in effect makes it very unlikely that Gardner will be given a start. So there goes the whole “small ball” in the play offs that people seem so interested in.
Girardi is likely going to save Gardner to insert in late game situations to steal a base. There are no good pinch runners on the roster other than Gardner.
If they now start Gardner they won’t have any late game pinch runners.
Instead they’ll have a 3rd catcher.
Conversely, if they put Gardner in for defensive purposes late in games, they’ll also not have any guys with plus speed to bring off the bench.
Roster construction has frequently been puzzling this season – the post season isn’t much different.
In the regular season if your starters stay healthy the bench isn’t going to play much of a major factor.
But in the post season when you want roster flexibility to play in certain situations the yankees will be hamstrung.
Guzman failed at least twice.
And by fail, I don’t mean caught.
Shawn-
JasonR at 10:38 has the roster and the link
Girardi seems to like being able to do mix and match with pitching. Having extra arms in the pen gives flexibility not only for match ups but for situations.
A point about the endless discussion about Molina starting with AJ… if he gets more 3 at bats, guess what? The Yankees are pounding the Twins. If its a close game Posada will be put into the game as a pinch hitter and take over for catcher.
One thing to think on though, sometimes players come up that you just never expect, and make the big play. Molina is a poor bat, but he did hit the last HR at the OYS.
Going on about .1 runs per plate appearance, so we are talking about 1/3 a run in one start. If AJ pitches really well, say a shut out or a 1 run allowed game, it seems its a reasonable tradeoff.
I would rather Posada catch, as I am not convinced that AJ will pitch better with Molina. However, if AJ believes he will, and it works out, great. If AJ pitches poorly to Molina in this 2nd game Molina isn’t going to catch him in any other games this postseason.
I think this is more about Girardi trying to get into the head of AJ than anything else.
i think you are selling the rockies & cardinals short
the cardinals have better pitching than the dodgers or at least good pitching & the rockies have jimene
pillies over rockies in 5
dodgers over cards in 6
the angels sweeping the rs??
i just dont see that happening
it would be a miracle if they beat lester in game 1
___
Dodgers over cards in 6? UHhhhh not in the ALDS since it is a 5 game series.
SJ, CB and MG are spot on.
I do think AJ has definitely kept the team in the game more often than not this year – he’s had a few brutal games, but aside from that, frankly he’s been more gutty than dominant. Has he really pitched one game this year as totally dominant in all aspects as any of the games he pitched against the Yankees last year? I mean domination, where the team was never going to get a sniff of a hit off him and he was striking out hitters left and right.
I agree it’s a fireable offense……..Joe has made a terrible choice here. As I said, though……the real problem is that he believes his pitcher needs a crutch. Actually, an even bigger problem is that AJ thinks he needs a crutch…….If AJ pitches badly, I’ve no idea how he gets through this contract. The media and fans will be merciless and rightly so.
CB/SJ/MG – I’ll ask you guys because, if I am wrong, I will drop it and never mention it again. I see this whole episode as a real problem for the clubhouse, from Jorge/Joe to Joe/the other players to AJ and his teammates. This is the wrong move to make and it hurts the team. I can’t see how Joe is easily going to overcome this in the clubhouse. As to AJ, the other players won’t say it, but how disappointed must they be in him? Then he avoids the media yesterday?
I don’t like doing predictions, but I see us over MIN in 4 games. LAA beats BOS in 5. We get past LAA…barely to face the Cardinals, who we beat in 6. Book it, Dano!
By the way bodi had a great post late in the prior thread about the catching situation. I’d encourage bodi to repost it in this thread or for people to take a look.
Bodi brings up a point that hasn’t been focused on enough. If AJ starts game 2 at home then they will be taking Posada’s bat out of the line up at a game played in new yankee stadium.
That is mind numbing.
Posada has been a beast at yankee stadium this year. An utter beast. The idea of removing a left handed power bat from the line up at new yankee stadium and replacing it with Molina’s is just hard to believe.
Do you think the fact that Cervelli is in means that HipHip Jorge is going to DH the games that Burnett pitches?
I can’t believe the fuss being made about Gaudin being taken over Guzman.
The bench is deeper than it’s been during the 25 man roster season.
Can’t have enough pitching.
Tigers went too long with Rodney and lost a series.
Freddy Guzman was acquired for one reason – to steal a base in a pinch in the playoffs. That is the sole reason why Cash picked him up. Now, he isn’t on the ALDS roster. To me, this is a sign that Joe and coaches were seriously not impressed enough, even though their boss (Cash) got him for this reason.
As far as AJ – we can debate this till the cows come home. The thing comes down to AJ – no matter what the numbers show, if AJ believes that he’s better with Molina catching, then he’s better with Molina catching. If he thinks he’s not as good with Jorge, then it doesn’t matter what the data shows, he believes it. That’s his psychological edge. Heck, players wear this magnetic necklace garbage around their necks, thinking it helps. Just like that pitcher in Bull Durham, if AJ thinks it true, then it does.
If AJ pitches a two hit shutout, then it helped. If he gets blown out in the 2nd inning, then it’s hello, Chad and Jorge.
A windy night in the Bronx…
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USNY0172
Betsy
With all due respect, I am asking that you drop the po/molina/aj stuff.
Since when do you have the skill to get into Joe’s mind let alone all the others.
Joe made his call. It’s been debated. Let’s move on. Plus, something positive for a change, please.
“So Friday night if theres a bases loaded situation early in the game 3rd inning or
so with a chance to blow it out and molinas spot is up ,do you pitch hit with Posada???”
No. But this is the scenario that bothers me. Imagine losing a game 5-3 with Molina putting up his standard weak at bat in that situation.
“Its an awfully big concession to make for a guy who has been, at best, an average pitcher in his career.”
sj44-
that’s exactly what i was venting about in my previous post. burnett may roll out a two hitter , but he may just as likely roll out a 12 hitter. when you put it all together he’s maybe at best a little above average pitcher.
i’d much rather see the yankees have a real #2 pitcher going in this series, but burnett is what we have . the only way i’ll ever warm up to burnett as a yankee is if he somehow as something deep in him that comes out in crunch time.
there’s nothing in his background that says he does . but maybe it’s there and he just hasn’t had a chance to access it.
i just don’t like rolling the dice with a barely above league average guy like burnett in a short series.
the rational part of me understands burnett being in there for two games because the yankees don’t have a better option.
emotionally, i’m ticked off.
i don’t think this is how you want the yankees to go into a playoff series, but it is what it is.
My prediction:
Gaudin and Cervelli won’t be on the field for more than 1 inning, combined in the series.
I almost had the roster guessed, except I thought they would carry Fast Freddy instead of Gaudin. Carrying Gaudin is a big surprise, especially considering the presence of Joba and Aceves. I guess he’s there in the event one of the games goes 14+ innings (unlikely, but I guess possible).
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l.....KgPlt1TZ4O
For people knocking Guzman, no complaining if we wind up seeing Matsui or Posada/Molina running the bases late in games trying to go 1st to 3rd or trying to score from second on a single because Gardner has already been used.
Hairston is an average runner at best. He is not a plus speed guy.
could the twins leave off a couple key relievers (who worked yesterday) knowing they wouldn’t use them tonight then use the “injury” option to re-add them for friday (thereby dropping a couple other non-crucial relievers for the remainder of the playoffs)?
“Wave – yeah, but most of those were in the minors. How well do minor league pitchers hold on runners, or minor league catchers throw out runners?”
Yeah, Guzman stole them against guys like Brian Duensing, just to pick a name at random…
And too big a deal is being made about AJ/Molina.
And why can’t Posada DH?
You know what’s funny, I’m more worried about CC than AJ. I believe the Yankees, media and the fans are more than prepared if AJ chokes in game 2, but I think the entire Yankee universe comes crumbling down tonight if CC goes out today and pulls a rock. That concerns me more because there is no plan B for that. Then you are putting your season into the hands of guys like AJ and Gaudin. As I said before, the playoffs have an way of finding every team’s hidden weaknesses – and no team has post season success without those weaknesses stepping up and performing. That’s what makes sports so interesting.
mick,
No, the fuss is that they can’t take Gaudin AND Guzman because they HAVE to take Cervelli.
Even though the Yankees can do what they please because it’s their team.
“Do you think the fact that Cervelli is in means that HipHip Jorge is going to DH the games that Burnett pitches?”
No. What it means is that as soon as AJ is out of the game, Posada will take over for Molina. They’ll then have Cervelli as insurance in case Jorge gets hurt.
I really hope AJ throws 15+ strikeouts and Molina belts 2 home runs. That Cervelli steals home two or three times. That Joba looks like vintage 2007 Joba. And that Burnett and Posada announce that they’re moving next door to one another.
All the negativity over a series where Yankees are the heavy favorites is amazing. Girardi should be fired? I didn’t realize the Yankees got eliminated before even playing Game 1.
Caller on 1050 Tierney said series is mismatch. It is like Germans invading Czecheslovakia!(sp?):)
CB, both Yankee stadium and the Metrodome are left handed power meccas. I’m predicting a high scoring series.
It’s not like AJ is the only pitcher who can implode…Andy has had his share of stinkers. The point is – you take the extra pitcher. Bruney has done nothing this year – I don’t care what he did in one recent game against the Sox.
I always thought Cervelli should be on the roster regardless of who caught AJ………Glad Guzman didn’t make it.
Forget the #s with AJ and Molina/Posada. AJ was in a slump in August and it had zero to do with Posada. What is this, every time any pitcher goes in a slump, it’s because the catcher is to blame? AJ pitched lousy to Molina in Baltimore before he figured things out. This is really an outrageous decision.
Andy has been the more consistent pitcher in the second half.
Cervelli’s got legs. He’s not quite as fast as Guzman but still a credible pinch runner. I’m still confused as to how he’s playoff eligible though — he wasn’t on the 25 man roster when he got hurt.
all year there were complaints about not having a 3rd catcher. i like cervelli and his fire and intangibles. let it be people….you are worrying too much….we will pummell the twins and get over this losing syndrome. it won’t take 86 years ala the redsox.
“Posada has been a beast at yankee stadium this year. An utter beast”
1.013 OPS at NYS.
That’s 200 points higher than Matsui’s OPS at NYS, which creates some argument for DH’ing Posada, but either way a strong lefthanded power bat is out of the lineup.
They probably know that Jorge’s not guaranteed to produce, and that there’s a chance (albeit small) that Jose might actually contribute at the plate. Because baseball’s a funny sport, and in the words of the immortal John Sterling, “you just never know”.
======
Jorge isn’t guaranteed to produce, but Jorge IS producing at Yankee Stadium – his OBP is .400 and his slug is .613.
Those aren’t good numbers – they’re STUD numbers.
And harping on Jorge’s ABs in a vacuum is to not understand how his bat functions in the Yankees’ circular lineup. This stuff about “a few ABs” of Posada is barking up the wrong tree.
MAYBE JETER won’t hit – MAYBE AROD won’t hit – that hypothetical – that Posada MIGHT NOT hit – doesn’t wash.
The Yankees are indulging a cranky pitcher who doesn’t trust himself without Molina. As talented as he is, he needs to feel he has the perfect-pitch climate to make his stuff translate into an effective pitching performance.
Shame on Girardi for not pre-empting this, as someone suggested yesterday or the day before, here. He should have seen this coming.
As for the people here crying about Posada being “selfish” to want his 160 OPS+ Yankee Stadium bat in the lineup…..time to find yourself another sport where numbers like that don’t really matter, as you all keep suggesting.
I guess the whole notion of OPS – which is the foundation of this offense – doesn’t matter. Hell, let’s take AROD out of the lineup…who knows? he may go 0-for-9 over the next few days, any way.
So in trying to analyze why we’re carrying 3 cathers. Look no further than the fact that you will need to pinch hit for Molina on two out of the 5 games meaning you will have no back up catcher if you do that. Now will not having a Guzman cost up? I think by now we all know how important a base stealer can be( don’t believe me?? Does the name Dave Roberts ring a bell?
Sorry, I haven’t been keeping up to date on rotation news:
1) Who starts game 4 and 5 of ALDS, CC and Burnett?
2) Who goes in game 4 of ALCS/WS?
mick
October 7th, 2009 at 11:21 am
And too big a deal is being made about AJ/Molina.
And why can’t Posada DH?
****
Posada cannot DH because if they later use Matsui to pinch hit for Molina, Posada would catch and the Yanks would lose their DH.
DH is a role matsui has excelled in all season. No need to mess that up
betsy,
Who’s blaming Posada? What Girardi said yesterday is not a lie. Jose and AJ are in a good rhythm. He likes what he sees. Now if they weren’t in a good rhythm and Girardi still forced Jose to catch AJ, THEN you know there’s a problem with Posada. But that’s not the case. Why fix it if it aint broke. And spare me the emotional stuff about player’s feelings and clubhouse chemistry. It’s baseball.
I would have took Guzman over Guadin as well. You don’t need 8 relief pitchers in a 5 game series especially when consider the off days.
I think if Posada goes 4-4 today and Hideki has a bad game Posada will dh in game two. If both do well Matsui will be in the lineup.
CB, Guzman is nobody – when the Yankees picked him up, I didn’t see too many people proclaiming this as a knock out move.
Betsy, it’s getting to the point where I get depressed by just seeing your name.
Let’s all agree that there are a million things that can go wrong and we’ll all be horribly disappointed if the Yankees lose.
Now let’s all get positive and enjoy the moment. It’s the best time of the year for baseball fans. It’s been two years since we got the chance to enjoy the Yankees in October.
The move, to me, shows what Girardi thinks of A.J. and how he handles pressure. Giradi wants A.J. to feel as comfortable as possible out there-in hopes that he will not implode. Infact, the entire PS roster construction-3 long men, 3 catchers are a result of Burnett being a ‘roll of the dice’ pitcher.
bodhi,
I get it. I understand it. It’s the wrong baseball decision, but it’s done.
erica
why can’t cervelli catch at that point?
You crystal ball is wise.
It seems to me like most of the people here are whining and nit-picking on the roster more than accepting it and gearing up for the playoffs.. And every post is being targeted at the decision of Joe to have Molina catch AJ..
“Cervelli’s got legs. He’s not quite as fast as Guzman but still a credible pinch runner”
Not quite as fast? Guzman could run on his hands and would still be faster than Cervelli. He’s not close to a credible pinch runner.
You know what’s amzing? All these negative post are not speressing me at all!
Not. At. All.
speressing=depressing
Betsy
Forget the #s with AJ and Molina/Posada. AJ was in a slump in August and it had zero to do with Posada. What is this, every time any pitcher goes in a slump, it’s because the catcher is to blame? AJ pitched lousy to Molina in Baltimore before he figured things out. This is really an outrageous decision.
=====
Right, there’s a piece on Yankee Universe about AJ tweaking his mechanics. I’d look for it, but I’ve got to get out of here or risk GWB hell on my way to the game.
He poured over video and made some adjustments.
Heyman and Kepner, among others, discussed how AJ adjustments made after studying video, after his abysmal August (6.03 ERA), might have more to do with his current success than who’s catching him.
In June & July (2.10/2.43 respectively) Posada caught most of AJ’s starts.
It’s http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/?p=7976
Sorry, not a live link and have to get out of here.
I don’t think this is about comfort.
I think that Girardi’s weighing 2 ER vs. 6 ER.
(I know, I know, Jorge’s caught some gems by AJ, including 7 shutout against Boston at YS)
mick
October 7th, 2009 at 11:30 am
erica
why can’t cervelli catch at that point?
****
It may not be your wisest move to use your last catcher.
CB, I don’t completely agree with your analysis of the Posada/Molina downgrade. At .1 run per PA, then a full day off for Posada will cost roughly .4 runs on offense. But it’s only going to be a full game (for Molina, batting 9th) if AJ goes the distance (or nearly does so), in which case he’s probably pitching a great game. Otherwise, it’s more likely something like .3 runs. And that’s just the offensive component. Defensively, Molina is probably BETTER than Jorge, so we can safely call the difference something like a quarter run.
Of course, baseball doesn’t have 1/4 runs, so it’s more accurate to say that there’s a 25% chance the downgrade from Jorge to Jose will cost the NYY 1 run (for the entire series), 75% it won’t cost them a thing.
And bringing Mauer into the discussion makes no sense. Posada doesn’t “neutralize” Mauer. Posada is obviously a better hitter than Molina, but he doesn’t in any way affect how well Mauer hits. The analysis needs to be focused on what Posada does for the Yankees offense (which is already accounted for in the .1 run/PA stat), not what he does in terms of supposedly “neutralizing” the Twins’ offense.
I agree there’s no objective evidence Molina would catch AJ any better than Jorge would, but that doesn’t convince me there’s nothing to gain by giving him his catcher of choice for his first career playoff start. It could help him calm his nerves and (as someone speculated) give him more confidence throwing his curveball. I don’t think AJ is acting out of spite toward Posada. I think he genuinely thinks having Molina in there will help him pitch a better game.
6 hours and 22 minutes until Game 1
YAY!!!!!
It may not be your wisest move to use your last catcher.
=========
That wouldn’t be a problem if the Yankees had taken Montero as well…;)
The Ghost
October 7th, 2009 at 11:29 am
I think if Posada goes 4-4 today and Hideki has a bad game Posada will dh in game two. If both do well Matsui will be in the lineup.
=====
Gee, imagine if they BOTH could be in the lineup…..
Thanks, Joe.
Bye all.
Wait till the ALDS October 7th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Was Guzan ever caught? Maybe I’m wrong but I didn’t think he was (pretty sure he was never picked off either for that matter), so I don’t know ow you can say he’s a bad pinch runner.
—————-
He stole 9, caught stealing 4. I don’t think it was worth the roster spot. I never had the feeling with him like I have with Gardner (almost automatic).
M, there’s really nothing left to say. We will never agree on this, so let’s drop this.
Anyone think that Swisher is going to have a big game tonight? I think this guy feeds off adrenaline and has a penchant for fast starts. He might be the wildcard tonight.
The Yanks picked up Guzman to steal a base in the playoffs. Now they aren’t carrying him. To me, that suggests the Yanks’ management lacks the courage of its convictions to carry through on a plan.
Cervelli isn’t going to help them, and the 8th reliever isn’t going to help them. All of a sudden the Yanks are worried that they need 3 long men? All of a sudden they realize that if they start Molina they’ll be nervous about bringing Jorge in to replace him in the 5th or 6th inning?
The Yanks are wasting what could have been a fabulous bench, and they are in at least one game, maybe 2, voluntarily reducing their offensive firepower, which is a main reason they won so many games this year.
Barring bad luck it probably won’t matter against the Twins – the Yanks are so much better. But they aren’t much better than any of the other teams they will face should they advance, and I don’t like what their decisions so far reveal about their thinking.
Tom, yes it does say that…..and it implies that Cash did not spend his $$ well when it comes to this guy.
Betsy
GREAT decision… dropping was requested long ago.
Guzman was picked up in case the Yankees had to play the Angels.
Yer Damn hands Off Of her, hilarious. they should have both been arrested (i hate cab drivers)
Here’s what amazes me:
With Posada catching in 16 games – 58 runs, 103 hits, 13 HR, 79 ks
With Molina catching in 11 games – 26 runs, 56 hits, 77 ks
How can anyone continue to call this “gut instinct”????? Will one of the posters from the Posada side please step up to the plate and explain how you can’t see that Girardi went with stats here – ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE Ks???
“The Yanks picked up Guzman to steal a base in the playoffs.”
They also very well may have picked him up to score from second base on a short single.
Or to go from 1st to 3rd in a late game situation.
Stealing bases was likely the biggest component to their interest in Guzman but it was far from the only reason.
With matsui in the line up and a very slow posada/molina having two guys with plus speed would have been a positive addition for the yanks, especially compared to a third catcher.
“Guzman was picked up in case the Yankees had to play the Angels.”
How do you figure?
Frank,
I think that was her way of kindly asking me to stop addressing her.
Bodh, exactly so. As I’ve said, I blame Girardi and if the Yankees lose, he can be fire. I do put more of this on AJ – he’s so fragile mentally that he honestly believes he needs Molina to pitch well (despite what he did in June and July)? Where was Molina in September of last year? AJ just has no confidence in himself whatsoever and I’m sorry about that. We’re supposed to drop it because the decision is done? Sorry, this is a decision that has ramifications beyond even this year – it doesn’t deserve to be dropped.
Frank, you made you’re request….I don’t have to listen to you. This is a blog for discussion and you don’t have to participate in this discussion if you choose not to. How about sending engraved announcements to everyone else discussing this matter, asking that they be quiet?
And I thank my lucky stars that the side who favored Molina ended up getting Molina because if Posada was chosen and we went on and on and on about this after the decision was made, we would have been ridden off the forum on a rail and told the decision was made and to just shut up about it – the way were dismissed throughout much of the discussion. Girardi made the decision and somehow we’re STILL on the wrong side of the argument, according to a lot of people here. Go figure.
It was a big mistake for Girardi to put Joba Chamberlain on the postseason roster instead of Brian Bruney. That mistake will cost the Yankees a game or two. I hope that it doesn’t lead to an early dismissal from the postseason.
Wave – You make a valid point. However, I’m still not broken up about Freddy Guzman.
Any one of us can come up with a scenario where one can say, “If only so-and-so were on the roster!”. But, this is why Joe gets the money, to make decisions like this.
You reach a point, and I think you have to acknowledge that anything can happen. Someone can get hurt, a star can come up empty, a journeyman player can make a big play or set an RBI record (just thinking of Bobby Richardson for a moment). These are the guys who ripped through the AL for most of the year, so you go with them.
Does anyone think the Twins would love to have AJ Burnett pitching one of these games?
“Will one of the posters from the Posada side please step up to the plate and explain how you can’t see that Girardi went with stats here – ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE Ks???”
Well, then why not use Cervelli in Sabathia’s starts? He caught him 10 times and his numbers were far better than they were the 15 times Posada caught him.
No, M…it was exactly as I said. You told me to spare you any comments about the clubhouse…..How should I respond to that? I completely disagree with your take and you with mine…..how productive is it to go around and around?
Trisha
K’s are a double edged sword – as I am absolutely sure you know. I prefer them but… K’s can cause high pitch counts.
It was a big mistake for Girardi to put Joba Chamberlain on the postseason roster instead of Brian Bruney. That mistake will cost the Yankees a game or two. I hope that it doesn’t lead to an early dismissal from the postseason.
___
How do you figure this will cost a game or two? Sorry, but Bruney has been far from perfect and no way you can say it is better to have him than joba.
bod, you’re my bud and I absolutely trust you to set ego aside when responding. If there is something I am missing here I want you to tell me. I trust your opinion. Can you please respond to this because it is really driving me crazy. I only pulled out three stats from what Blackhawk posted because I consider them to be three important stats in terms. The others also seemed favorable but these I consider relevant. Thanks.
**************************************
Here’s what amazes me:
With Posada catching in 16 games – 58 runs, 103 hits, 13 HR, 79 ks
With Molina catching in 11 games – 26 runs, 56 hits, 77 ks
How can anyone continue to call this “gut instinct”????? Will one of the posters from the Posada side please step up to the plate and explain how you can’t see that Girardi went with stats here – ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE Ks???
“And that’s just the offensive component. Defensively, Molina is probably BETTER than Jorge, so we can safely call the difference something like a quarter run.”
No we can’t. This is purely magical thinking. There is no way that a catcher has that much impact on runs allowed.
There is no evidence for this in the least.
“And bringing Mauer into the discussion makes no sense. Posada doesn’t “neutralize” Mauer. ”
Of course it does. Baseball is largely a game of marginal matchups of one team vs. the other where teams try to maximize relative advantage.
This was a core basis for the yankee dynasty in the 1990′s. People often remarked on how that team didn’t have any true superstars in the line up outside of perhaps Jeter.
What’s ignored is the relative marginal advantage the yankees had up the middle vs. nearly every opponent they played. The yankees didn’t have to have bashers at corner positions because they were destroying teams up the middle.
Marginal advantage is particularly true over the course of a long season but it also holds for a series or a single game though the variance on expected performance will be much higher. The point estimate isn’t going to change and that’s all you have to go on.
The scenario can be seen. Molina is pinch hit for with runners on base and if scouting reports show Jorge hits a pitcher well, he gets the call. If Jorge produces, Girardi has the option of keeping Jorge in the game or putting Cervelli behind the plate.
“How can anyone continue to call this “gut instinct”????? Will one of the posters from the Posada side please step up to the plate and explain how you can’t see that Girardi went with stats here – ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE Ks???”
Or that Posada has had problems with pitchers going back to the Cone/El Duque dynasty days. The Burnett situation isn’t an isolated incident. Posada has a long track record of chemistry issues with his pitchers that is conveniently ignored for some reason.
I don’t want to take sides because I think the panic is silly. The Yankees are going to win this series no matter who catches. But absolving Posada completely because he’s part of the “old guard” isn’t fair to Girardi or Burnett.
I have a modest proposal-
Overall this year, Chad Gaudin had an ERA of 4.64, but in 42 innings he posted an ERA of 3.43 for the Yanks.
AJ pitched to a 4.04 ERA for the Yanks.
On a linear weights basis (using baseball reference data), Posada produces about .105 runs more per plate appearance than Jose Molina. Assuming, on the Yanks, the catcher spot gets up 4 times a game approximately (probably a little more), that’s the equivalent of .4201 runs per game.
If Molina were to catch AJ, and Posada to catch Gaudin, that would translate to a 4.46 ERA for AJ, and a Yank ERA of 3.43 for Gaudin (4.64 overall).
My modest proposal is to start Gaudin and Posada instead of AJ and Molina. The Yanks would probably increase their chances of winning!
And people who keep saying Molina is a significantly better catcher defensively than Posada are not, IMO, talking about the current version of Molina, and haven’t been watching the games enough.
CB-
You are right, and I didn’t mean to exclude Guzman’s other benefits to the team in making my point.
“Trisha
K’s are a double edged sword – as I am absolutely sure you know. I prefer them but… K’s can cause high pitch counts.”
Frank, thank you for your answer! And you are right.
Betsy
You must like being in the spotlight dance!
“Does anyone think the Twins would love to have AJ Burnett pitching one of these games?”
Not me. Does anyone think Gardenhire would have anyone else but Mauer catch him?
I am officially going to the game tonight! I was supposed to sit in the Mohegan sports bar, but my friend sold those ticekts and now we’re sitting with the crazy folks in grandstand. I’m hoping that Jorge takes out his “ANGER” on AJ/Molina/Girardi/Cashman/Whomever is on his bad list at the moment and belts out a nice long game winning homerun
Trisha,
Looking at those stats can be misleading. As I’ve said over and over, AJ is as inconsistent this year as he’s been his whole career. look back at his other regular seasons and you’ll see that they look pretty much exactly like this one. AJ pitched great to Posada numerous times this year. he’s also pitched badly to Molina. The fact that Molina has better overall numbers with AJ is nothing more to me than luck.
He is a streak pitcher. He’s on a streak now and we have to hope he stays on it for another 3 weeks.
This is one of the most tedious debates imaginable considering the first game of the playoffs is only a few hours away. It’s like a bunch of people patting themselves on the back in a show of how smart they are for disagreeing with lineup & roster decisions that may or may not have an impact on this series.
Rex, I think the Yankees have finally learned this year that in order to beat the Angels they need to beat them at their own game and that means using their team speed to do to them what they’ve been doing to the Yankees for the last decade – putting them back on their heels and taking them off their own game by taking their game away from them.
It was a big mistake for Girardi to put Joba Chamberlain on the postseason roster instead of Brian Bruney. That mistake will cost the Yankees a game or two. I hope that it doesn’t lead to an early dismissal from the postseason.
___
How do you figure this will cost a game or two? Sorry, but Bruney has been far from perfect and no way you can say it is better to have him than joba.
========================================================
Two things:
1. Joba’s first inning is usually his first…thats not good for a guy who will work out of the bullpen.
2. If you look at the last 10 outings for each player you will see that Bruney has been far better than Joba. Joba did not earn a playoff spot with his production.
It would have been better to let Joba go home to Lincoln, NE for the playoffs and get his mind set for next year. There aren’t going to be any Joba rules next season so Joba has to be ready to pitch well as a starting pitcher from day one.
Complain all you want. It’s like railing against the pounding surf. It will only get stronger and more powerful. It is the wrong move and a move that forced the Yankees hand in roster spots. I don’t like it and will continue to not like it. But, game one is on in 7 or so hours. So I’ll just let it go..
Ghost:
Why wouldn’t that apply against the Twins or the Red Sox? Having Guzman doesn’t slow down the Angels or anyone else. It speeds up the Yankees.
1. Joba’s first inning is usually his first…thats not good for a guy who will work out of the bullpen.
2. If you look at the last 10 outings for each player you will see that Bruney has been far better than Joba. Joba did not earn a playoff spot with his production.
___
Joba earned it much more than Bruney. Bruney pitched about a 5th of the innings JOba did and i am sure you can find 40 innings where JOba pitched well. Bruney has been no lock out of the pen. He gives up homeruns.
Also not good in a close game.
Everyone here has become a dog with a bone. Let it go!
NYY626
congrats! have a great time at the game.
The Joba we see pitching 1 inning in the playoffs will not be the same Joba that pitched the 1st inning as a starter. He’ll be throwing harder. Will he be better? I don’t know. But his velotcity will be 95 – 97.
The truth is, we don’t even know if he’ll get meaningful innings out of the pen. Based on his performance this year, he should be behind Ace, Robertson, Hughes and Mo.
That said, I think Girardi will shock us when he bring Joba into 1 game in a big spot.
The chat is starting.
NYY626-
Have lots of fun. Tell Johnny I love him
“Joba’s first inning is usually his first”
Is this a Zen Paradox?
Time for the chat
1. Joba’s first inning is usually his first…thats not good for a guy who will work out of the bullpen.
2. If you look at the last 10 outings for each player you will see that Bruney has been far better than Joba. Joba did not earn a playoff spot with his production.
___
Joba earned it much more than Bruney. Bruney pitched about a 5th of the innings JOba did and i am sure you can find 40 innings where JOba pitched well. Bruney has been no lock out of the pen. He gives up homeruns.
Also not good in a close game.
==================================================
Have you checked the last 10 outings for each player?
Here’s Joba’s:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8084
I’ll put Bruney’s in the next post.
I wonder if there is as much debate from RS fans regarding Tek vs V-mart
Here’s the link to Brian Bruney’s last 10 outings. If you compare them to Joba’s you will see a massive improvement versus Joba’s.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7324
Erica- Are you going to any playoff games?
“Here’s what amazes me:
With Posada catching in 16 games – 58 runs, 103 hits, 13 HR, 79 ks
With Molina catching in 11 games – 26 runs, 56 hits, 77 ks
How can anyone continue to call this “gut instinct”????? Will one of the posters from the Posada side please step up to the plate and explain how you can’t see that Girardi went with stats here – ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE Ks???”
trisha-
this is why it’s a gut decision.
)courtesy of miggs)
Date Innings Earned Runs Catcher
7/17 6 3 Posada
7/22 7 2 Posada
7/27 7 0 Posada
8/1 4.2 7 Posada
8/7 7.2 0 Posada
8/12 6 3 Posada
8/17 8 3 Posada
8/22 5 9 Posada
8/27 6 3 Molina
9/1 5.1 6 Posada
9/7 6 1 Molina
9/12 7 6 Molina
9/18 7 1 Molina
9/23 5.2 2 Molina
9/28 6.1 1 Molina
10/4 5 2 Molina
if you throw out the bad start against the Sox with 9 runs in 5 innings (that would never happen in a playoff game where the hook is much, much quicker), here are the numbers:
Innings Runs ERA
Posada 46 18 3.52
Molina 43 16 3.35
———————
“I wonder if there is as much debate from RS fans regarding Tek vs V-mart”
Bet there would be if Francona decided he would start Varitek in a particular pitcher’s start, but apparently feel they’re better with him watching from the bench.
My predictions:
Yankees over Minnesota 3-0
Angels over Boston 3-2
Cardinals over Dodgers 3-2
Rockies over Phillies 3-1
ALCS
Yankees over Angels 4-2
NLCS
Cardinals over Rockies 4-1
World Series
Yankees over Cardinals 4-3 (Revenge for the 1964 WS Loss)
Yankees win their 27th World Series Championship!
I will cut and paste this to see how close I was in the end.
Stubhub has lots of nicely priced tickets but…
My best seat will be on our couch having dinner with my girlfriend and our puppy.
(An important note: Sophie, our puppy does not sit on the couch while we eat!)
NYY626 -
Good for you. Have a great time!
It’s starting to get very depressing in here. Posada is playing tonight and he will definitely play in Game 4 if necessary. I’d say Game 5 is a wait-and-see, with Game 2 being the referendum on Game 5.
Anyway, the decision’s been made. I’m not thrilled with it. But it seems to me that it is being overstated just a little bit what a horrible decision this is by Girardi and co. Unexpected, debatable, disappointing, sure. Horrible? I don’t think so. I don’t think it puts the Yankees in line to lose the series. I just don’t.
Also, Mauer has hit them this year; even hit HRs this year; even at the stadium. The key has been they’ve been of the solo variety, I believe. Keep everyone else off the bases, and Mauer doesn’t really hurt you.
For years the Yankees had this bombastic offense. However, better pitching was able to neutralize that offense. Girardi apparently is using some history to inform his decision. The Yankees pitchers should be able to neutralize the recently hottish bats of the Twins. The Yankees bullpen should be able to give whatever remaining offense the Yankees have (I mean with Posada on the bench for one or two games, that is) to capitalize on middle relief. Balance is what wins games. Even with this roster, I see balance here. And Cervelli can bunt and he is a good baserunner. It’s not Sal Fasano they’re putting in as the 3rd catcher. If they didn’t have Cervelli, specifically, they wouldn’t be doing this.
tex’s friend
October 7th, 2009 at 11:13 am
i think you are selling the rockies & cardinals short
the cardinals have better pitching than the dodgers or at least good pitching & the rockies have jimene
pillies over rockies in 5
dodgers over cards in 6
the angels sweeping the rs??
i just dont see that happening
it would be a miracle if they beat lester in game 1
___
Dodgers over cards in 6? UHhhhh not in the ALDS since it is a 5 game series.
———————————————————–
sorry
pillies over dodgers in 6
I’m a bit surprised that Guzman didn’t make the team. It would be nice to have a second speedy pinch runner off the bench. I’m also surprised that Gaudin is on the roster. The Yankees already have Joba and Aceves as long relievers if needed. I suppose Girardi would rather save those two for late inning situations.
Christina- Here come the bandwagoners…
October 7th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Erica- Are you going to any playoff games?
*****
Sadly no, but I really think its for the best. I don’t have a good playoff game track record. I will so be very content at home in my pjs with you Yankee people. And also, my lucky notes to the team or showers might be needed
Rex, I think it comes down to matchups, the Sox and Twins just aren’t big running teams – by that I mean their game plan doesn’t revolve around running like the Angels. That has given the Angels a mental edge in their matchups with the Yankees. The Yankees have always looked flat-footed against the Angels because the Angels would spend the game chipping away with a run here and a run there and the Yankees would be sitting around waiting for a 3 run homer that never came. Being able to run with them allows the Yankees to match them and take away their mental edge.
Doreen-
Should I declare this afternoon a “happy time” and no more arguing allowed??
Erica
You usually say that you PL him!
Thanks Kate, Erica and Doreen. And yes Erica, I will tell Johnny you love him!
Frank from Chatham
October 7th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Erica
You usually say that you PL him!
****
there is nothing pretend about my love for Johnny
I wonder if some of Girardi’s thinking about including Joba is that he will replace AJ in the rotation if AJ/Molina do poorly. Or so Joba can come in to relieve AJ if it goes poorly.
Joba also did really well coming out of the pen, though its a very small sample size, it may be thought that he fed off the situation and can make the most of it.
CountryClub – fair enough. I think that is a reasonable response and I am willing to buy it. And maybe Girardi looked at it the same way and figured he’d ride the streak. It’s not an unreasonable position given everything people have said about AJ’s streakiness.
So, I work with a guy from Minnesota and just found out he played ball with Mauer. Wow. This guy made it to the minors, but never to the “Show”.
Dilemna–I live in France, so the game starts at midnight. Do I try to stay up, or try to nap? I will be useless at work tomorrow. Friday’s game–not so bad. Fortunately, I arranged to go home to Connecticut next week for a few days…
I have a ticket to tonight’s game but i work in a very difficult environment that would allow me to leave work early…any suggestions on how to get out of work so I can watch CC win game 1 at the stadium??
Randy okay, I’m good with your response. If it’s gut, it’s gut.
If AJ stats with Posada and molina catching can’t be looked at because AJ is very streaky and inconsistent, please take a look at CC stats with Posada and Molina catching.. Look at the K/BB ratio…
CC with Posada catching –
15 games, 374 plate app, 324 abs, 46 runs, 85 hits, 18 doubles, 5 triple, 7 homeruns, 5 SB, 1 CS, 38 bb, 59 ks , 1.55 K/BB, .262 BA, .344 OBP , .414 SLG, .758 OPS
CC with Molina Catching –
10 games, 277 plate app, 258 abs, 24 runs, 60 hits, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homeruns, 3 SB, 3 CS, 12 bb, 76 ks , 6.33 K/BB, .233 BA, .273 OBP , .349 SLG, .622 OPS
A smart well thought out roster put together by Girardi, his coaches, and scouting reports. This team has too much faith in thermselves to be denied.
The roster is subject to change after the ALDS in accordance to matchups, scouting reports, and what occured during the Twins series.
“Rex, I think it comes down to matchups, the Sox and Twins just aren’t big running teams – by that I mean their game plan doesn’t revolve around running like the Angels.”
Yeah, but those teams not being big running teams does not mean the Yankees should not be looking to enhance their team speed. Having speed works as well against the Twins and Red Sox as is does against the Angels or anyone else.
I hate making predictions on this kind of stuff. You never really know when rookies can step up and with such a short span of time they can really make a big difference. Plus this is the time when some guys shine, think 2003 Marlins and Dan Haren for the Cards a couple of years back. Also don’t forget Andruw Jones in 96.
I am with you Rob. Crazy things can happen when you are playing a 5 game series.
I am just having a hard time understanding why Girardi would pitch AJ game 2. I DON’T have a problem with Molina catching, becuase at most he will get 2 At Bats and its worth having AJ feel comfortable but then you run into a dilemma if the series goes 5 games. Then you have to flip flop back to Posada becuase you can’t have Molina’s bat in a Game 5. I would rather have seen Pettite start 2 and 5, AJ start game 3…this one move could define Girardi’s season.
True Rex, but I think the concern with the Angels is them running the Yankees out of the ballpark. If Guzman was a superlative fielder I assume he would be on the roster to spell Damon or Swisher in the late innings but he seems to be a one dimensional player.
Erica -
You’ve had some luck in declaring happy time outs – I don’t have your clout!
I really just want to stay positive, even if it means being a “Pollyana” and simply accepting the situation at hand – which, really, is all we as fans can do. But I do realize the function of this forum is for discussion, both agreeable and disagreeable.
The problem is, for me, I agree with the basic premise that AJ should have been conditioned to work with Jorge; taking Jorge out of the lineup does mess with the mechanics and strength of the lineup; and you should put your best team on the field in the playoffs. However, I also feel that if the manager thinks his #2 pitcher needs to continue on the roll he feels he’s having with a specific catcher because he feels that gives his team the best chance to win, I don’t see it as a devasting decision; and I believe the Yankees have and can win a game – or 2 – without Posada in the lineup; and I think the Yankees are capable of winning this series in spite of this decision; and if they win 3 games out of 5, the roster will be revisited before the ALCS.
betsy,
I asked you to spare me comments about the clubhouse because there’s no foundation at this point. There’s no proof. (and you’ve already told us a few times that you think it will cause a problem).
We can look at stats. We can go off Girardi’s press conference yesterday “They’re in a good rhythm and we want to keep that going”.
But, we can’t assume that Jorge’s soul has been crushed or this will rip the clubhouse apart. I’m more of a realist, so I don’t do games like “what if?” or “worse case scenario”.
They’re grown men playing a boy’s game. They’re professionals and this is their first rodeo with a catcher’s controversy.
We all can post our opinions right? I feel I’ve only responded to others on the topic. I haven’t stirred up the pot, so to speak, by trying to jump-start this whole debate. Which really shouldn’t be a debate. Girardi’s had the last say, and repeating something over and over is not going to change Girardi’s mind.
The Detroit Tigers became the 1st team to be in 1st place every day from May 10th on until losing the title in the last week.
*isn’t their first rodeo
I swear that some Yankee fans can be so annoying. Can you at least wait till Game 1 starts before you start complaining.
m -
Well stated.
BA named it’s Top 20 prospects in the Florida State League.
Montero was #2 (he’ll also likely appear on the Eastern League list) and Romine was #10.
we are talking about 6 ab in 2 games at the most before molina is lifted.
imo girrardi does not want to give burnett any excuses whatsoever.
it is all on burnett
how many unconventionl heroes have we seen in the ws & playoffs ?
how many times have big offenses failed?
it is all about pitching with timely hits
molina will be lifted at the earliest opportunity
What an absolutely charming twosome!!!
It is said that all things happen for a reason. As much as I didn’t like the thought of Pete leaving before the whole gig was over, maybe Sam’s and Chad’s personalities are exactly what we need to keep the forum running peacefully. Neither seem like the type to take sides or make posters feel foolish.
Nice nice additions.
I will post a link to the Prediction Chart as soon as I can get it on line! I don’t know how to upload to verizon yet.
Doreen,
Thanks.
And I apologize to Sam, Josh, and Chad for hijacking the board with my nonsense.
It’s just that I can’t stand to see players (I admit they’re my favorites) be accused of things like not having integrity or being bad teammates when there’s no proof.
Apologies again.
Sam Cardinal owned the Dodgers in regular season.
Pitcher’s Carpenter/Wainwright were too much for the Dodgers.
Anything is possible in Postseason,but everything I’ve seen says Cardinals in 4.
I do like your version much better though.
But in the event the Cardinals face the Phillies,they aren’t good with a lefty line up,and friends of mine who are Cardinal fans who a,they are now worried about the Rockies too,because they owned the Cards this season.
hey did anyone else read that they began playing “new york, new york” over the PA in the metrodome last night when the Twins finally won? I watched the game until the 10th and then went to bed. just curious if that was true.
If yanks split first two at home I believe this is going to 5 games, which means AJ/ Molina in the deciding final game.
Which is why it’s important to win BOTH games 1&2.
Anyone having trouble?? is this over?? I clicked on the link but don’t see/hear anything.. Help!
I compiled the leverage splits of the Yankees ALDS roster:
http://docs.google.com/View?id=ddg2xnq_1f3b2dgm5
Not to down play the importance of catchers in general, or Posada in particular, but the Yankees still managed to win some games w/o either Posada or Molina. Maybe Girardi is willing to experiment w/ a series that should be easier to win. If the AJ/Molina combo doesn’t work, he can put Posada back in if game 5 is necessary (which I don’t think will be the case)
I heard Steve Phillips of all people say this morning that the Twins only chance was to beat Sabathia tonight and sweep the series. Otherwise there is no way they can stand toe to toe with the Yanks for 4 or 5 games, he said.
The Apacolypse is coming!!
Peter Gammons predicted sox losing to the halos and the Yanks winning it all. Who put a gun to his head? ESPN experts have the Yanks winning the world sereis. Im getting nervous. Why couldnt a 103 win team be under the radar?
Molina and AJ are going to be safely tucked in the dugout tonight.
Can the discussion on them be tabled until after game 1?
pat -
I’m for that!
S.o.S.
October 7th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
The Apacolypse is coming!!
Peter Gammons predicted sox losing to the halos and the Yanks winning it all. Who put a gun to his head? ESPN experts have the Yanks winning the world sereis. Im getting nervous. Why couldnt a 103 win team be under the radar?
____________________________________________________________
I also get nervous when Gammons & Co say anything positive about the yankees :/
Since Molina hits like a pitcher, its like having no DH when he’s in the lineup. Yet having Molina in the lineup is good practice for JoeG for when we play the NL on the road.
The Twins are the hot team, I just hope the marathon they ran to make the post season sapped them.
Go Yanks!!
Is it 6:07pm yet. Can’t wait!
Pat-I sincerely hope so!!
“Can you at least wait till Game 1 starts before you start complaining.”
Boy, am I with you on this one.
“ESPN experts have the Yanks winning the world sereis. Im getting nervous. Why couldnt a 103 win team be under the radar?”
The ESPN as anti-Yankees has always been far more about preception (or paranoia in some cases) than reality. They’re just calling it as they, and most other experts, see it.
History scares me more than anything. Only three times in the last 20 years has the team with the most wins won it all. Hot team usually takes home the prize. Let’s hope tha team is the Yankees.
Gammons is trying to put a hex on us
Interesting chart Pel. Small sample size, but Cerveilli looks like a stud.
Sorry im late to the party. Havnt read many posts. I wasnt too happy about the quote from Posada yesterday but heard that it wasnt said as bad as it sounded. Im sure Posada would rather sit a game or 2 than relive what happened last year all over again. WATCHING FROM HOME WITH ALL OF US.
Blackaccord — I wonder what CC’s stats were with Cervelli catching? That seemed to be a pretty good match-up…
Since Molina hits like a pitcher, its like having no DH when he’s in the lineup.
————-
With that said. I think we should treat the games Molina catches as if we are playing interleague ball in an nl stadium. Make sure a pinch hitter/runner is ready to come in at all times for our pitcher, i mean catcher. Dont we have the best interleague record in all of baseball? No worries fellas.
The Twins have been playing hot, but some of that is the competition they faced. The Yankees played well down the stretch also, but faced more competition. Overall, I think the Twins were obviously good enough to win the Central Division, but they are a .500 team that is playing above its level in the last month.
The Yankees have been good against both the poor teams and the good teams. They are battle tested from the season, the Twinks have just kept their heads above water.
Regarding the Posada/Molina/AJ love triangle:
http://www.glassprison.com/kel.....ItStop.jpg
So, what yankees gear will everyone be rocking tonight? As soon as I get home: jeans and my “we always win when I wear this particular yankees t-shirt”.
sos it also isnt the full quote. it was taken out of context.
Its all about the pitching and with AJ, and a 5 game series, there is no margin for error.
Why not have Jose catch AJ if its quite possible AJ will pitch better? Sorry Jorge, I love you, but let it go. And we should all too.
all these predictions,debates about who should be catching gives me anxiety on top of the stress of the series
nobody can predict the future
in fact history shows we are bad at doing so on every level,especially sports
if burnett pitches a 4 hitter with molina catching girrardi is a genious & i can care less about posadas offense because it wont be needed
we are talking about 6 ab here.
if the experiment fails girrardi doesnt look so good
if burnett gets bombed he will be lifted & posada will be in the game very early so it could very well be 4 ab we are talking about here
what happened to the days of enjoying the game & letting the coaches coach?
i like our pitching & offense & think we will get it done
both burnett & molina will be on a very short leash to the point where if the decision to catch molina is the wrong one it will be corrected early enough to give us a chance to win the game
if burnett gets bombed in game 1 maybe posada catches him in his 2nd game
just enjoy the game
Wake up guys! Cervelli is an excellent clutch/situational hitter. He can bunt, he can run. Not the fastest like Gardner or Guzman, but an intelligent base runner who busts it 110% out of the box, all the time, every time. I just hope Girardi intends to put him in at some point. He has very rarely let them down.
just enjoy the game
———–
best line of the day. Im just happy the Yankees are playing in October again. its been 2 years since we’ve asked the ghosts to come out and play in Yankee Stadium. In 5 hours 4 min the wait is over!! Whose with me!!
STOP FLAMING JORGE THIS IS THE ENTIRE QUOTE!
“I saw it coming,” Posada said after the Yankees’ workout at the Stadium Tuesday. “Whatever it takes. If that’s going to help [Burnett] win the game, I’m all for it. You always want to play. I can’t tell you that I’m excited about not catching. But you know what? It’s all about the team right now. I’m looking forward to being ready when I’m there.”
Thanks for the quote Jennifer. Way different than advertised. He can have his leader belt back.
sos when people have an agenda they twist words to fit it. His quote was no where near as bad as people made it out to be. He admits he isn’t happy, but if it helps the team he’ll deal with it. I don’t see what is wrong with what he said.
new thread.
Hey remember a few minutes ago when someone suggested that we save the Molina debate for friday? Let’s do that!
I’m going to start a Let’s Go CC chant! ( since, you know, he’s playing tonight
).
I for one hope SJ,CB,and MG are dead wrong.If they are right
then the Yankees lose.
Joe is the Mgr,and he should be in a better position to know his team better than anyone. I trust his decisions .
This year started off looking like Joe would be fired by the All Star break.He, being the engineer he is(has a degree in engineering)is using his A type personality to bring home a WS.
Joe was trusted for 162 games,won’t you trust him for 11?
Last yr he failed the mgr test.This year he’s blown it out of the water.TRUST the Man,he’s a thinker!!
CAN’T WAIT for the Game to start already….
Let’s win 11 straight and bring the 27th back to the Bronx =]!
Let’s go Yanks!