Flash Points: John Flaherty breaks down the Game 2 pitching match-up
Posted by: Sam Borden - Posted in Misc on Oct 17, 2009 
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Former Yankee and current YES Network analyst John Flaherty has agreed to break down the pitching match-up for every Yankees postseason game exclusively on the LoHud Yankees blog. Be sure to check out John on the YES pre- and post-game shows today. Here’s his take on the Game 2 starters:
YANKEES: RHP A.J. Burnett (0-0, 1.50 ERA)
WHAT’S HE THROW? “Fastball, power curve for his strikeout pitch and change-up.”
STRENGTHS: “I think it’s going to be the same thing for Burnett as the last time – he’s got to keep the fastball away to righties. He had a really sharp curveball the last outing, but the location wasn’t great and he’s not going to get away with that against this lineup. Good news for him, again, though, is that CC took some pressure off him by winning last night. In front of a home crowd and up 1-0 in the series, he ought to be able to relax just a little.”
WEAKNESSES: “The weather can be a factor. I didn’t think CC had a great slider last night and I think A.J., since he uses the power curve as his main strikeout pitch, could be affected. He may not be as consistent with that pitch and will have to adapt if he can’t control it. … It’s also no secret he’s easy to run on, so five walks like the last time would be bad news. This guy is a rhythm pitcher, so if the Angels get runners on by walks, they could make this a long night for him.”
——-
ANGELS: LHP Joe Saunders (0-0, 0.00)
WHAT’S HE THROW? “Two- and four-seam fastballs, sinker, change-up and the occasional slider.”
STRENGTHS: “You hear a lot about the sinker but he’s got some heat on his fastball, too, he can get it up to 94 mph and that really sets up the change-up, especially to right-handed hitters. It’s a real nasty pitch to them. He can speed you up with the fastball, then drop it 12 mph. He’s also got a slider that he uses to the left-handed batters.”
WEAKNESSES: “I actually had a chance to talk to Scioscia out in Anaheim when Saunders was struggling a little and he said it’s all location. He’s got power stuff, but he can’t pitch in the middle of the plate. I expect the Yankees to go with the game plan of trying to take him the other way the entire night. If you get beat with a fastball, then maybe you can dump a single the other way; if it’s a change-up, you could be right on time and square it up. The Yankees can’t try to get big with this guy. It just won’t work.”
———–
EDGE: “If we’re just talking about the pitchers and nothing else, I think Saunders may have a little bit of an edge in the cold weather because he’s a fastball/change-up guy and A.J.’s curveball is usually his go-to strikeout pitch. The weather makes it harder to spin the ball, and that favors a guy who relies more on the fastball and change. So, a slight edge to Saunders.”
Get at them early!
Wrong. Saunders is an average pitcher. AJ is the better pitcher and he pitches his best at night and at Yankee Stadium.
we must remember that out of the first 5 hitters saunders sees we have 3 righties and a lefty who hits lefties like a righty (matsui) – and our bottom 4 has 3 switch hitters…
this is no fun line-up for an average lefty to face…
Oh, Flash. Why so dour?
CNN’s Headline News had a Latino in America segment. Started with Mo and how difficult it was for him, moved onto Mark Newman, showed the Tampa complex, had an interview with Jesus Montero (how it was different for him i.e. easier) than Mo, and ended up with Mo again. He said he told his teammates, “you can laugh at me, but you’re going to teach me” (presumably English).
Should be running in the loop for most of the day.
Pov October 17th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
I see this game tonight as different than last night. I tend to think it’s a 6-3 6-4 type of game.
I’m pretty sure we will see Joba tonight, maybe for a couple of innings depending on how the AJ pitch count goes. Joe I think has in his mind a AJ, Ace, Joba, Hughes, MO kind of plan, subtracting pitchers depending on how far AJ gets. Maybe Coke slips in their for a batter.
sauders is not an average lefty, he shut the Yankees down last month and was 17-7 last year with a good ERA
Saunders has an edge over AJ? Ok, John…….
Yes, AJ didn’t do the same thing against the Twins as he did against the Sox…..he got killed by the Sox in that 15 inning game. Sheesh ……..could Flaherty be any more negative? I hope AJ comes out and shuts everyone up tonight.
I see the advantage for AJ
-CC’s win takes off some of the pressure
-well rested bullpen
-home crowd
M, what was difficult for Mo?
For what it’s worth, I’m not underestimating Saunders – he pitched well against the Yanks the last time and the Yanks still aren’t hitting on all cylinders.
I hope AJ comes up big tonight, he’s been waiting for the post season a long time. Hopefully he’ll keep his head in the game. On the flip side we have a fully rested bullpen.
I don’t know.. I thought that analysis was fairly objective.
How is John being negative? He’s saying that because Burnett relies heavily on his curveball, the cold weather could really affect him. Which is why he said if you’re just talking about the pitchers and nothing else in the cold weather. Saunders’ stuff won’t be as affected in the cold as Burnett’s. No negativity there, just telling it like it is.
STRENGTHS: “I think it’s going to be the same thing for Burnett as the last time – he’s got to keep the fastball away to righties. He had a really sharp curveball the last outing, but the location wasn’t great and he’s not going to get away with that against this lineup.”
Sorry Flash that is not how I would describe AJ’s “strengths”.
How about overpowering fastball and knee buckling curve ball.
if we get saunders out early i like our chances if the game is played
rain is a coming
Ramey is spot on! Betsy, don’t confuse unbiased analysis with negativity.
Can’t emphasis the cold weather enough. Like John said, the only reason Saunders has a slight advantage is because of the cold weather.
Girardi and the pitching staff should get a little credit for their game prep.
I didn’t read it that he was disrespecting AJ at all. More analyzing if the weather is going to be a factor, then AJ because of his style of pitching and the pitches he throws, might be the one that is more susceptible.
Flaherty didn’t say anything that wasn’t true.
Walking five against the Angels isn’t the same as walking five against the Twins.
The Angels have a much better lineup and are much more likely to take advantage of Burnett’s wildness than the Twins.
Don’t underestimate Saunders. I think the Yankees will win, but they have to play well like they did last night.
I thought Flaherty’s break down was pretty fair. *shrugs*
The Yanks have been solid on defense, and if the wind is blowing out with Saunders being a contact pitcher it could be a long night for the Angels.
We are going to crush Saunders
I guess we’ll see………I hope the game isn’t played tonight. That is, the forecast is still for heavy rain – I don’t want to lose AJ ……which we would if there is a long delay.
Flaherty is stating facts and was very objective in his analysis. If AJ can throw his breaking ball without any problems due to the cold weather the advantage goes back to the Yankees but just look at how many problems both Lackey and CC had last night with their breaking pitches-the only hits CC gave up were on breaking pitches and they switched off the breaking ball after the 4th inning. AJ doesn’t have a good change so you have to figure he needs to really locate his fastball well tonight so he can get the Angels swinging at out of the zone breaking balls-if he can’t it could be a short outing.
we could be in the 3rd inning by now
Greg D
October 17th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
We are going to crush Saunders
————————————————————
i agree
think positive
a 2-0 lead would be great going to cali
Oh, I definitely don’t undersestimate Saunders. I assume that all of these games will be close and low-scoring…….Yanks have to take advantage of their opportunities, something they haven’t done in recent post-seasons. Of course, it helps to have good pitching. It’s nice to see Damon get it going – now if Cano could start heating up.
Fastball command is always the priority for a pitcher especially a power pitcher. If he can command his fastball on both sides of the plate, a power pitcher can still be effective with a mediocre breaking ball.
I also think Girardi will have a short leash on AJ tonight-the Yankees are going to score some runs off Saunders so if the Angels are consistently getting to AJ, something on the order of 3-4 runs in 4 innings or less, we could see a lot of the bullpen. With the travel day the bullpen could throw 5-6 innings easily and not burn any pitchers for game 3.
anyone think cano and aybar looked like characters from the video game mortal kombat last night?
FINISH HIM CANO!
sorry for the early nineties geeky as hell reference
Last night’s game was huge for the Yankees, but tonight’s game is critical to the Angels. It’s important to the Yankees too, but the Angels goal is to split the first two games in New York. If they lose tonight then it allows some doubt to creep into the Angels mindset while allowing the Yankees to possibly steal more than one game out in LA.
Isn’t there a character in those Mortal Kombat video games named Kano? Cano? Hello?
SA,
Yep. Kano would be him: http://www.totalmortalkombat.c.....render.jpg
It’s as if this Betsy chick was the former major leaguer and John Flaherty was an idiot blog commenter.
Anyone hoping we don’t play tonight is naïve. Even if we play and get delayed a few innings in, thus losing both starters, advantage us.
A delay till tomorrow throws off our rotation plans.
“A delay till tomorrow throws off our rotation plans.”
How?
even if AJ has to come back on 3 days rest in game 4 it won’t matter much-he made 3 starts in 2008 on 3 days rest and only gave up a total of 5 runs in those starts.
ed – 2009 will be the year of the Yanks October 17th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
SA,
Yep. Kano would be him: http://www.totalmortalkombat.c…..render.jpg
=======================
Ah! LOL Thanks Ed!
That dude looks scary
There’s good piece in Yankees Universe by “Steve S.” examining which starter is more likely to be affected by the cold weather. Their conclusion: “If you had to bet on who would be more affected by the conditions, the clear choice would be Joe Saunders.”
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/?p=8499
Or that Phil was an idiot blog commentator……
AJ in game four?
Nick in SF
October 17th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
AJ in game four?
————————–
game 5, I mis-typed, sorry…
I guess starting the game earlier is out of the question. It seems ridiculous to start the game so late when there are chances of worse weather and delays. There is no other baseball game today, no NFL, the biggest College games look to be day games. 8P eastern time is just silly. You’d think they might want some daylight if it’s so cold.
I know it’s about MLB/Fox revenue.
Unless I missed an announcement of some kind, I don’t know that a rainout tonight would affect anything beyond attempting to play tomorrow and then losing a travel day. Wednesday is also a scheduled off day, so game 5* on Thursday should be safe.
* if necessary.
4P NY time Sunday ……. fly to California ……. 1P Anaheim time Monday. That’s two games and a cross country flight in 24 hours. Pretty stupid in my book.
Nick -obviously it puts burnett on short rest in his thursday game 5 start or it forces us to use a 4th starter. Why would we benefit from a rain out tonight?
If both teams lose their starters via delay tonight, we have a far superior pen. So, as I said, playing tonight is considerably better for us.
Ok, I get what you and MG are saying now.
But I did not suggest that we would benefit from a rainout tonight.
I’m sure anyone cares what John Flaherty has to say
I don’t get it. Because Flaherty didn’t say that AJ will throw a complete game shutout with 15 K’s while Saunders will give up 8 runs in the first, it’s not a good analysis?
Tyler, lots of people care what he has to say, because he knows baseball (and pitching especially) a whole lot better then anybody posting here.
You can agree or disagree with the analysis, but saying it was unnecessarily negative is missing the point. It wasn’t posted here to soothe the fans’ egos. It’s here to give us a professional’s breakdown on the pitching match up tonight.
“The weather makes it harder to spin the ball, and that favors a guy who relies more on the fastball and change.”
Or a guy who throws the best cutter ever. Another reason why Mariano has been so dominant in the postseason. The cutter depends on finger pressure, not twisting and spinning the ball. He doesn’t have to make adjustments to his stuff like other pitchers have to because of the cold weather. That and his cool demeanor have made him so great.
Good day Yankee people!!
5 hours and 25 minutes until game 2 !!!
“If we’re just talking about the pitchers and nothing else, I think Saunders may have a little bit of an edge in the cold weather because he’s a fastball/change-up guy and A.J.’s curveball is usually his go-to strikeout pitch.”
Isn’t adding cold weather into that statement talking about things OTHER than the pitchers and nothing else? I’d expect that if you were talking about the pitchers and nothing else, Burnett would have the advantage. But if you factor in the cold weather, the nod would go to Saunders. I think that makes more sense for his argument
Flaherty gave a good, honest analysis. He’s not a homer which is why he’s good.
And, you never know, he could be wrong.
Rob,
I may be wrong, but when he said “talking about the pitchers and nothing else” he was referring to not taking the line up they are facing into account.
Saunders may have an edge given the elements and his stuff, but the Yankees have a better line up.
AJ’s curve is not just his strikeout pitch, it is imperative that he throws it effectively to keep hitters off of his fastball. I remember CB posting earlier this year that he has a very high batting avg against his fastball, even though he throws it as hard as anybody. It is his curve and his ability to locate it that often determines his success.
Sanity check: so I just checked weather.com and it appears to me that the 90% chance of rain that was coming all night that was reduced to 70% this morning is now down to 40% at game time. Anyone else seeing/hearing the same? Is it just me or are we going to get this game underway at 8pm?
Carlo,
But it is saying 70% chance from 10:00 on.
stop the denial
all of the so called expert opinions are scenarios that might happen based on stats & past performances
we have the same input but because of their baseball experience they know more about mechanics & such
i heard that the angels will run on us & play great defense ,go 1st to 3rd but none of it happened
all it is is a bunch of nothing to fill the time
the mets,cubs,rays,red sox were supposed to be tough
what happened?
they cant even get what happened in a game already over right
after a while if you throw out enough possibilities you are bound to get one right
if burnett pitches a 3 hitter & walks none & we steal 4 bases & molina hits a hr wo will be right ?
you cant predict the future
Stop the Denial.
Saunders is a better and more consistent pitcher. He is the classic example of a pitcher (power with guile) who can (and will) completely shut out the Yanks offense.
AJ will lose.
Stop the Denial. Enough is enough.
Yeah, but the timing of this storm has been getting pushed back and back and back. If they have two hours to play and they believe there is a chance to finish through the rain, its a go.
Can the storm stay fresh on three hours’ rest?
They should’ve had a 4pm start time for this game. Hopefully the storm holds off, the radar doesn’t look too good though
Saunders hasn’t pitched in two weeks. He doesn’t have good numbers on the road, and he has bad numbers against a lot of the Yankee hitters. If the Yankees can pull out a win in this game then they are in great shape.
flash is right… Saunders has the advantage today.. doesnt mean that AJ can’t throw a shutout..
Stop the denial.
This storm has been waiting for October ever since its press conference. This storm isn’t coming towards New York just to peter out over Connecticut.
The storm is coming.
Stop the denial. Enough is enough.
chris m.
How do you know the results of a game that hasn’t started yet ?
The Yankee hitters have done well most of the time against Saunders. So to say that they will get shut down sounds like stupid.
Flash never said that AJ (or the Yankees) would lose, just that he would give the edge to Saunders. He also didn’t say the Angels would win. As important as starting pitching is, there are other things to consider. My guess is that AJ will be on a short leash, esp w/ a well rested bullpen.
sorry- sounds stupid.
For entertainment purposes only, the matchup tonight — AJ vs. Saunders — has the Yankees favored by greater odds than the matchup last night.
I’m still taking the storm and the points.
If only they were playing now-weather somewhat decent
ND vs. USC soon. Go whoever.
they are going to have a tough time
tomorrow is supposed to rain & into sunday night
80 % chance sunday at 7 pm, 60 % sunday 11 pm
http://www.weather.com/weather.....hrly_graph
If the storm goes tonight, can it come back for Game 6 as well? Flaherty said the long rest between outings may do it more harm than good. Plus it’s been getting ready constantly for the past few days. It may be tired.
Maybe I’m wrong but I really feel like we have the advantage in every matchup. If you told me we had a fully rested pen with AJ on the mound at home against Joe Saunders, I would tell you I love that matchup. I guess I can kind of see why these teams would be picked to go 7 but I honestly don’t see it going back to yankee stadium.
Maybe I’m being optimistic but this yankees team has the advantage on every facet. People talk about team speed when the yankees are probably more likely to steal more bases in the series then the angels. Pitching we have the advantage, bullpen huge ad, lineup decent advantage especially when you talk about some of the dropoffs like C and SS. The one thing the yankees always lacked was the grittiness and the ability to always get the big hit in the late innings. This team has had that all year and it is that X-factor that makes me think the yankees will do very well in this series. Just one persons opinion.
Yesterday Flaherty said the Edge, was a flip of the coin,both pitchers could pitch great,and the game ending up in the bullpens!!How’d that turn out?
I’ve said it before projections are subjective,not always objective,or accurate.
At sports.yahoo.com Tori Hunter says,last night’s performance by CC was the reason he tried so hard to recruit him for the Angeles this past winter.Tori calls CC a bull dog.
Lackey said, he or the team had no objections with Alex’s collision at home plate,it’s October.
Lackey also said,It’s October man,I’d run over my mom,in October.
I sure hope AJ does some recruiting of Holliday,this winter.Just tell him to go FA.
AJ use Johan Santana haste to leave the Twins,and how that worked out.
Not a good match tonight for aj.
I prepare for 1-1 tied series.
I swear that some yankee fans have no confidence in their team. This team has proven time and time again that they will battle back and overcome the odds. Saunders is good but I don’t see him pitching a shut out. If it comes down to the bullpens, advantage yankees.
Kudos Jeremy,Carpe Diem!!
Another one——–>
Denial is just another river.
Saunders a power pitcher?
You know not of what you speak.
Saunders may be a stopper tonite
Or, the weather may stop everything.
The Yankees could have their AA team up here, and if any analyst said the Angels were a better match up, some Yankees fans would declare war, it’s just unbelievable.
Starter pitching is one of the keys to the game, and he said they had a SLIGHT edge.
But lets put it this way – It’s all on Burnett – if he decides to pitch well he has the victory, if not, than Saunders does. That’s it.
Ryan, I agree with you, we do have the advantage on every facet, but if that’s the case, than we should have been 162-0, and we weren’t. It’s baseball, and strange things happen. I would hate for it to happen, but us losing one game in the postseason doesn’t seem so unrealistic. Going undefeated, no matter how good, seems more reasonable. But like I said, it’s baseball, and weird things tend to happen.