Today’s award: NL Cy Young
Posted by: Sam Borden - Posted in Misc on Nov 19, 2009 
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The official announcement of today’s winner will be at 2 p.m. Until then, here are my thoughts and predictions. Feel free to chime in with your own.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG
The favorite: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
The contenders: Tim Lincecum, Giants; Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
The dark horse: Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies
The (former) Yankee with a shot: Javier Vazquez, Braves
Morning analysis: Wainwright and Carpenter both had fantastic years, though Carpenter missed the first five weeks with an injury. The case is strong for either – Wainwright allowed two runs or fewer in 26 of 34 starts, and Carpenter went 12-1 from the end of June on as well as led the NL in ERA (2.24). You also can’t ignore Lincecum. The 2008 winner actually lowered his ERA and walks totals (in virtually the same number of innings) and led the league in strikeouts (261). His ERA (2.48) was only second to Carpenter who pitched 33 fewer innings.
The pick: Certainly you can’t go wrong with a Cardinal but I’ll go with Lincecum for the repeat. Some might get hung up on the 15 wins but to me, he continues to be the most dominant pitcher in the league.
The record: 4-for-5 (hit on Coghlan, Greinke, Scioscia and Tracy; missed on Bailey)
Attention ladies: Have you seen the cover of the Post today?
( my apoligies for getting all girly here, but I had to….)
http://www.nypost.com//
i think Adam Wainwright should win it .
Wainwright should win but carpenter will win
NYY626
November 19th, 2009 at 8:54 am
Attention ladies: Have you seen the cover of the Post today? ( my apoligies for getting all girly here, but I had to….)
http://www.nypost.com//
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Ooooh…thanks for posting that! Derek’s looking GOOD. Minka is a very lucky girl!!
good for Derek
- didn’t take part in the topic yesterday evening:
if Toronto will extend an extension window for Halladay, then i have NO problem moving Joba in this trade.
Joba Chamberlain
Ian Kennedy
Melky
Mike Dunn
personally, i don’t expect the Blue Jays can do any better then this
NYY626,
Thanks for the link. I usually don’t like reading the NY Post, but the cover was worth reading today
Yeah I dont read the Post much either, but this cover got my attention lol.
NYY626 =
Thanks for the link. Derek & Minka actually looked like they were having fun in the first few pictures – just like “regular” people! (Love the one where it looks like he’s teasing her.)
The last couple of pictures, though, definitely looked like they realized they were being photographed. (Not saying that’s true, just how the pictures look.)
Changing the subject for a second:
Far be it for me to agree with Scott Boras but I very much agree with his proposal that in the next CBA teams be required to disclose how much money they are getting from Revenue Sharing and Baseball’s Central Fund.
According to Boras the Pirates got $35 mil from the Central Fund and another $40 mil from Revenue Sharing. $75 mil before they sell a single ticket. If true, then with a payroll at around $30 mil and assumed administrative and other costs of around $10 mil that’s still $35 mil going into the owner’s pocket before he collects one dime of ticket revenue. If true, that’s an indictment of how little some of these owners care about fielding the best team they can.
Off topic but a quick question. Anyone know when the yankees will begin selling season tickets for 2010?
Chip
Agreed! It’s a joke that a salary cap would even be a consideration. With teams pocketing exorbitant amounts of money, it is their choice to not be competitive. That Twins owner, the guy who passed away, was probably 100 times richer than George Steinbrenner. He just chose to not spend it on the Twins. Shame for the city of Minnesota, really.
Carpenter :
IP-192.2,H-156,R-49, ER-48,BB-38,SO-144,W-17,L-4,ERA-2.24
Lincecum:
IP-225.1,H-168,R-69,ER-62,BB-68,S0-261,W-15,L-7,ERA-2.48
This is going to be interesting to see how the stats decide.
here are some FACTS for all of the Joba’s never going to be anything fans out there that want to dump him for Halladay the greatest pitcher of all time
Roy Halladays stats for his first 3 yrs(ages 21-25) in the league;
49starts/336 1/3innings/369hits allowed/235strikeouts/208earned runs/38hrs allowed/18wins 17losses/5.58era
Joba’s line for ages 21-24 in the league;
43starts/281 2/3innings/266hits allowed/285strikeouts/128earned runs/27hrs allowes/15wins 9losses/3.61era
the point being that Joba is off to a muche better start to his career was a much better,more effective pitcher than Halladay at equal points of his career,has a better repetoire of pitched than Halladay has even today and if given the CHANCE TO CONTINUE to develop has definitely shown that he has tha ability to become the front line starter that his capabilities suggest he will. In fact last season-his 1st season as a full time major league starter he was in the top10 in era in the league despite his inconsistencies.
If left alone next season i think that he’ll be a better pitcher than Burnett for us which gets to the whole point that in Joba i may get better performance for 500k than io get from AJ for 18mil! the Yanks cannot pay CC 23mil,Halladay 23mil,AJ-18mil,Andy 12mil,Mo 15mil,Jeter 20mil,ARod 30mil,Tex 22mil,Posada 14mil,Holliday 20mil,Grandy 9mil,Cano 9mil,Swish 9mil et.. i mean it’s ridiculous now we’re talking a 250-275millin dollar payroll
wake up people!!! let’s come to reality and more importantly pay attention to the facts. The Steinbrenners allowed Cashman to stretch the budget last season with the promise that he would lower payroll the following year,that’s the only reason Tex is at 1b in the Bronx and not in Boston! If you want Pettite back then forget about Halladay at least for ’10.Next year when he’s a FA then maybe as all he costs is the $ and maybe the Pettite’s spot in the rotation is open. Boston will not be able to trade for Halladay,sign him to a $150mil,sign Beckett to $150mil sign VMart it can’t happen so it is most likely that Halladay will be available on the FA market next year. So hopefully Cash waits him out like he did with CC if we need him.
Lincecum’s stats blow away the competition. He should win in a landslide as far as I’m concerned.
Second place should be pretty close between Javy Vasquez, Wainwright and Carpenter with an edge going to the first 2.
It is a shame for the Twins. They are almost always in the mix and come up short. If their owners spent a bit more on the team, and kept key players they would have more of a chance…and that is part of why I think Gardenhire should have been manager of the year.
champ809 -
i agree , but we don’t know the Steinbrenners game plan. I mean yes , they could have said to Cashman sign Tex but only if you lower payroll next season.
But standing today. and making a TON of money from the World Series. The Steinbrenners could say, forget payroll again and go after Doc.
It sorta the rich father with the spoiled kid
upstate kate
you’re right. If not Joe G, the Ron G. Look at the team he goes out there to begin with. With Mauer out the first month, Morneau out the rest of the year. Without knowing the stats of their bullpen, I’d imagine that the bullpen was not very good aside from Joe Nathan. Their pitching staff, the ace is ?? Carl Pavano/Nick Blackburn? Do not know about the guy’s stats, but my favorite guy to laugh at on the Twins is Matt Tolbert. Without looking at his stats, again I’d imagine that he is anything but an everyday major leaguer. And he has the same batting stance and looks very similar to Morneau. I call him mini-Morneau (not for his skill set). LOL
Carp should be third favorite imo, lack of ip’s kills him
I think Wainwright is the favorite. Either way, I like the Lincecum pick – that kid is insanely dominant. This is probably going to be the tightest of all the awards.
champ809 -
My gut feeling is Cashman will not desert his long-terms plans, even for Halladay. It would have to be a deal too good to be true for it to happen, IMO.
Chip
Yesterday boston.com had a 5 page in depth article on the money these smaller market receive.It pointed out they use the money to pay off debt of their teams,and how some fan bases just don’t support their teams.Instead of using it for player development and recruitment to field a competitive team. It’s Corporate Welfare on display!!
They want the worst teams to get the best players in the draft,a slot system.
SI quotes the Mgr of the brewers as wanting the favoritism of the draftin Yesterdays article.
“Carp should be third favorite imo, lack of ip’s kills him”
Yup
His rate stats are great, counting stats not so much. 192 IP doesn’t cut it IMO
I think Javy Vasquez is really getting overlooked this year. He should be good for 2nd or 3rd place but nobody is talking about him. He had a really really great year for Atlanta.
champ809-great post. I really don’t see the Yankees getting Halladay this season, especially considering he’ll (most likely) be a free agent at this time next year
Champ809
You can’t look at Doc’s stats and compare to Joba’s and infer that Joba will improve along the same career arc that Doc did. One thing has no bearing on the other.
Wainwright:
IP-233,H-216,R-75,ER-68,BB-66,SO-212,W-19,L-8,ERA-2.63
Hey, this is kind of interesting on the press’ claim that the Yankees bought the Series. He’s kind of tough on Pete. But I haven’t read him since he left.
http://theyankeesrepublic.blog.....nters.html
Champ. Just because Joba and halladay both struggled early in their career gives no real indication that joba will progress in the same way.. Most pitchers struggle when they first come up for awhile. Its those very few that progress and turn into great pitchers. Joba may do that but the odds aren’t good that he will ever be as good as Halladay is now. Halladay is good because of his brain and work ethic not because of his stuff
The “facts” aren’t apples to apples “facts”.
The “fact” is, Roy Halladay completely changed the way he pitched by going to A Ball and reinventing himself mechanically.
Also, its folly to compare pitchers at similar stages of their careers. Everybody develops differently.
You have injury issues to consider. On and off field issues to consider. Mechanical issues, etc. All of that goes into the mix.
Its never wise to compare pitchers at various stages of their respective careers because too many variables come into play.
After 2+ seasons in the majors, Dwight Gooden was headed to the Hall of Fame. How did that turn out?
All you can do is evaluate players with the facts you have in front of you at this time. Anything else is just wishing and is not based in any proven, long term theory of development.
“All you can do is evaluate players with the facts you have in front of you at this time. Anything else is just wishing and is not based in any proven, long term theory of development.”
This.
Cashman’s vision/plan is to make the Yankees a dominant franchise again. To do so, you have a balance of youth, dominant pitching, experience, veterans, role players and a quality farm system.
A quality farm system works two ways for the Yankees. It provides talent for the big club and also assets to deal for players to improve the big club. They have the assets to do a Halladay deal. They know it and that’s why Cashman has been in touch with the Jays about such a deal.
If he wasn’t interested, he wouldn’t be exploring it.
Doesn’t mean it will happen, obviously. However, I think fans are naive to think the Yankees aren’t going to explore doing such a deal this off-season.
The Yankees have never been an all homegrown team and they never will be.
If Cashman acquires Halladay, he accomplishes most of his goals because dominant pitching is the name of the game.
He’s not going to destory the farm system to do it. Nor, will he have to if Halladay is indeed available.
CHAMP 809-
In regards to your 9:52 post-
You are 110% right. We all need to be patient when dealing with young starters. I actually also compared the same stats between Joba and Halladay, as well as other top notch pitchers a couple of days ago. Very few guys come into the league and dominate right away. Even Doc Halladay who came into the league in 98 was sent back to the minors in 2000 after sporting an era of over 10.5.The same is true for another great pitcher named Johan Santana who made his debut in 2000 but was sent back to the minors in 2002 after struggling in the majors. Lets be patient and let these kids develop.
Doc Gooden had a severe cocaine problem and a manager who had no problem pitching him a ridiculous number of innings.
Gooden is probably the poster child for pitcher abuse, throwing 250 innings when he was 20.
The fact is Cashmsn would be dumb to give up ANY major league talent for Roy Halladay.
The Twins got no major leaguers for Santana and now people think it would be wise trading multiple major league players for a guy who’s older than Santana AND will require the same 20 million dollar contract as well. SMH
The Yankees don’t need Halladay. Halladay needs the Yankees ALOT more than they need him.
Last I checked the Yankees just gave a big middle finger to the rest of the league. Now they have a ring and they have Hughes, CC, Joba, and Kennedy. Not to mention the fact that they still control the rights to Wang at the moment who’s a damn fine pitcher in his own right.
Anybody who thinks it’s a wise move to trade Joba and Montero plus more pieces for Halladay just doesn’t get it.
I also find it funny how many people are adamant Hughes fans now when a year ago most people here couldn’t wait to get rid of Hughes.
Some people even thought Hughes was softer than a tempurpedic bed, now the same people want to ship out Joba.
If we were to land Halladay, it simply wouldn’t be fair to the rest of the league. Think about what the rotation would look like: CC, Halladay, AJ, Petitte and Joba/Hughes. How many games are we going to win? 130? 140? Should the games even be played at all? Just declare us the champs and be done with it.
Ray,
What about Joba and a handful of other prospects not including Hughes or Montero?
That’s a deal I would consider, but I’m still on the fence. Joba very well could be a better pitcher than Halladay within the next 4-5 years.
Jorge De La Rosa for the Dark Horse? Really? Sure he’s got a lot of strikeouts, but he’s ERA is terrible (yes, I know ERA isn’t the most reliable stat, but the voters love it) and he isn’t even the best pitcher on his team. (See Ubaldo Jimenez)
When you look at all the teams the Yankees keep afloat with the luxury tax and revenue sharing.For those teams to try and save face with their fan base they never mention the life line that’s being gifted them yearly by the Yankees etal,as well as the 3-40 mm from MLB.
The Yankees are taxed 50% above 84mm JUST FOR BEING PROFITABLE!!
-Speaking of homegrown Yankees.The Yankees had the highest % of homegrown players 56% on the 25 man roster 14 out 25 more then any team in baseball,even more then the Marlins,who had a percentage in the twenties.
SJ44 -
It’s all dependent on what the Blue Jays want in return. I don’t think Cashman will overspend, and I don’t think he’ll overvalue his own prospects.
The argument could be made here that the Yankees don’t “need” Halladay to be a dominant team. Not to say it wouldn’t be really nice to have 2 bona fide aces on the pitching staff. But back when Santana was available, there was a definite need, because Wang was the ace of the staff, and he didn’t fit the usual definition of an ace (power pitcher).
The Yankees would be derelict in their duties if they didn’t ask after Halladay and see if something could be done; just as the Blue Jays would be derelict if they didn’t field offers from the Red Sox and Yankees just because they’re “in-division” teams.
I know they won’t ever field an “all home-grown” team. But I thought the idea was to keep the best and trade the rest, but have enough of “the rest” to be able to trade. So that’s why I think if a trade is made for Halladay it would have to be one where it looks like it’s too good to be true. (And I realize I am very limited in my ability to discern who exactly is “the best” and who exactly is “the rest”
For all anyone knows, Joba may have fallen way down on the list of untouchables, and also Montero, since the hand injury.)
Its interesting how some of you look at Jobas early numbers and Halladays and conclude that Joba will develop the same way thay Halladay will. All that information tells you is that it “could” happen. The truth is that its very unlikely. For as many pitchers with pitchers with talent that turn into Roy Halladays there are 1000 that never amount to anything
I think Montero is more of an untouchable than just about anybody in the system right now.
They have pitching depth to trade. They have nobody with the power/hitting skills of Montero in the system.
I don’t see any deal out there in which Montero would be included.
I do think, if its the final piece to get Halladay, they will give up one of the young arms. They were willing to do it in July and they would be willing to do it now, IMO.
Its up to the Jays on what they want to do more than it is the Yankees in this situation.
As far as comparing the Santana situation with the Halladay situation, that’s what the Blue Jays have going against them right now.
The Twins got nothing for Santana. Its going to be tough to pry more than one real asset from either the Yankees or Red Sox for Halladay.
Boston will give up Buchholz for Halladay in a heartbeat. The Yankees have the assets to better that offer.
The questions are, how badly do they want Halladay and will Toronto do the deal. Neither question we have the answer to at this time.
Cashman has said that one of the reasons that he didn’t do the Santana deal was because they weren’t good enough to win the WS at the time anyway.. That has changed now
not to be mean. Who cares if we trade Joba or Hughes to Toronto.
Let them rot in Toronto. They won’t bother us all that much. They’ll be pitching for a 4th place team
Patrick,
in my mind it shouldn’t take Joba plus prospects for Halladay.
The Blue Jays can’t compete next year anyway. I would trade six minor leaguers for Halladay if that’s what it took but if Im Cashman I’m not weakening my major league team for the privilege of paying Halladay 20 mil a year.
Joba and Hughes are going to be very good pitchers in this league, I don’t think their futures are worth Halladay’s present. JMO
“here are some FACTS for all of the Joba’s never going to be anything fans out there that want to dump him for Halladay the greatest pitcher of all time”
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‘champ’: have been following Chamberlain & Hughes from the time they were drafted, as the majority of posters have.
this have nothing to do with ‘waking-up’. In my view, i make Joba available for Doc Holladay for 3 factors:
1) the player is Doc Holladay
2) Joba’s injury history is a very big concern
3) frankly his makeup is a concern as well. And every indication is he is living off his 2007 press clippings. yup.
I said it before & I’ll say it again.
There is no need to give up Joba, Hughes, Ajax or Montero in any trade for Halladay. None.
The Mets STOLE Santana from the Twins, who now, less than 2 years removed, have ZERO to show for it exzcept J.J. Hardy (from the Gomez trade). That trade occurred chronologically at the same time this would – the beginning of Halladay’s walk year.
Cashman will NOT gut the farm as what was previosly done to make a “splash”. He doesn’t need to.
With each passing day, TOR’s leverage drops, and if they include Wells in any deal, the value of what you give up should plummet, depending on how much of Wells’ God-awful contract you’re willing to eat.
King Felix, assuming he’s even available (which I doubt, and think SEA would be nuts to move a cornerstone of their franchise especially since they’re not exactly hurting financially) would be the one to take a serious run at – and even then no way Hughes or Montero is part of that deal. You want to talk anyone else, be my guest.
As much as Greinke’s victory was a plus for the movement against Wins, today things will revert back and the bbwaa will show that they are still in love with Wins. Lincecum was clearly the best pitcher in the NL this year. Those 33 extra innings on Carpenter are huge.
But unfortunately Lincecum will probably finish 3rd because the writers will love the wins on both Cardinal pitchers who, unlike Felix Hernandez, pitched on a winning team. Hey it’s dumb and unfair, but these guys haven’t changed too much. That’s how they will vote.
I’m sorry, I meant to say:
“the writers will love the wins on both Cardinal pitchers who, unlike Felix Hernandez, pitched on a postseason team.”
That’s a deal I would consider, but I’m still on the fence. Joba very well could be a better pitcher than Halladay within the next 4-5 years.
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he doesn’t have to be better than Halladay over the next 5 yrs…if Halladay is only slightly better thanJoba bit the difference in salary costs is $100million then it is fiscally dumb and irresponsible when you consider that you have $250mil commited @ 3b,$125mil @SS,$160mil @ 1b,$50mil @closer,$200+mil @ CC and AJ etc…i mean Cash is operating with a larger revenue stream than everybody but it ain’t monopoly $….the Yanks cut the prices dramatically for the Legends seats and still couldn’t sell them..i personally went to 6 games this year for free in the Legends section up the 1st base line because the team gave away 40/50 tickets to employees in the ticket dept. just to have bodies in ‘em so it wouldn’t look so bad on TV.
I’m not saying i wouldn’t want Halladay on my staff everybody would. But at the cost of the talent i’d have to give up and then sign him to $150mil i’m not interested as I’d gamble that 1yr away from FA Halladay will be available for just a check next season.
I will say the the new GM in Toronto is a lot smarter than the JP because the only way he gets a decent offer for Hallday is to allow a team a window to explore signing him to a deal.
The point as some have pointed out was last year we NEEDED an ace to come lead the rotation and Cash had planned from the ’08 season that CC would be that guy. He was wonderfully correct and everything worked out perfectly! This year there isn’t that glaring need
Jorge de la Rosa as the dark horse? Did you mean Ubaldo Jimenez instead? de la Rosa had a 4.38 ERA in 2009, and he didn’t even pitch in the playoffs. Listing him as the dark horse has to be a mistake.
Vinny B
the concern about Joba’s injury history is overblown…he’s never been on the Dl and the Yanks shut him down for a month because of shoulder stiffness…
Hallady missed a whole season a few years back because of injury.He’s 33 he’s thrown more innings thaan anybody in baseball the last 7/8 years and based on that is probably the higher injury risk over then next few years than a 24 yr old Joba. So think if another justification.
and as far as living off his press clippings i think he’s living off the fact that as a 24yr player making no $ and with one the most electric arms in the game and a fantastic arsenal off stuff that maybe 3-4 pitchers in the game could match if and when he finally gets it he could be a perennial cy young contender. If it comes together for him this season then watch out!
What the Blue Jays need more than starting pitching back in a Halladay deal is position players at the Catcher and infield positions. They have no catcher,3b,ss and have Overbay @ 1b and Edwin Encarnacion @ 3b. They will be getting Marcum and McGowan back to go along with Romero and every other rookie pitcher they threw up there last year.
The will almost certainly demand from the Yanks Montero but Cash won’t trade Montero. There is a greater chance that Montero is in our lineup the second half of next season than there is he gets traded.
we could do a Romine,Laird,Nunez,Ajax package and to me that’s alot considering that i’m off the opinion that Halladay will be available on the FA market next season
Jorge De La Rosa? What? Nary a mention of Dan Haren, either, who was among the favorites until a rough patch to end the year.
LINCECUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!