Today’s award: AL MVP
Posted by: Sam Borden - Posted in Misc on Nov 23, 2009 
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The official announcement of today’s winner will be at 2 p.m. Until then, here are my thoughts and predictions. Feel free to chime in with your own.
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American League MVP
The favorite: Joe Mauer, Twins
The contender: Derek Jeter, Yankees
The dark horse: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
The (other) Yankee with a chance: Mark Teixeira
Morning analysis: Here are the key tale-of-the-tape stats for Jeter vs. Mauer (and, just for fun, Tex):
Jeter: 153 G, .334 BA, .406 OBP, .465 SLG, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 107 R, 30 SB, .871 OPS
Mauer: 138 G, .365 BA, .444 OBP, .587 SLG, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 94 R, 4 SB, 1.031 OPS
Teixeira: 156 G, .292 BA, .383 OBP, .565 SLG, 39 HR, 122 RBI, 103 R, 2 SB, .948 OPS
Truth is, whatever your definition of MVP, it’s hard to argue with Mauer. I’m one of those who believes MVPs aren’t just the best player – to me, part of their “value” comes in showing that they matter by playing consistently well in games that matter. For a while, it looked like Mauer wasn’t going to fit that part of the bill but what he did late in the season to carry the Twins to the playoffs was just insane.
Jeter has been close to the MVP before; in 1998, Jeter had a .864 OPS and finished third behind Juan Gonzalez, who won with a .997 OPS (Nomar Garciaparra finished second). In 2006, Jeter had a .900 OPS and lost to Justin Morneau who had a .934 OPS (both of which, by the way, were lower than third-place David Ortiz’s 1.049).
To me, Jeter had a stronger case in 2006. Mauer was just too good this year. Even if you do the always-debatable “what happens if you take this guy off his current team?” question, Mauer is clearly more “valuable” in such a hypothetical.
The pick: I’ve got to go with Mauer. Guess Jeter will have to “settle” for the World Series ring and Minka Kelly’s undying love. He had an amazing season and will probably be hurt in voting by the fact that Teixeira happens to be his teammate. Again, I think that’s something Jeter is just fine with.
The record: 5-for-6 (hit on Coghlan, Greinke, Scioscia, Tracy and Lincecum; missed on Bailey)
I think Mauer’s got this one locked up, but
Go Jeter!
Go Tex!
This was awarded to Mauer long ago. Regardless of the vote and how it comes out the media has been proclaiming him the MVP for a long time and making the case that anyone to disagree was insane.
I think Mauer is a valid MVP candidate, but I am bothered that far too frequently certain members of the media had made up their minds regardless of what any other player does. The same goes for HOF now. If you have certain members on your side you will get in.
Abda -
That goes for the AL Cy Young as well; it was Greinke’s to lose from, what, May on?
Sam I disagree with you, if you take off tex april I think his # would’ve been far better then mauer’s, mauer didn’t play in the cold april & that’s why his # stayd that high(kind of the begining of the season a lot of players are batting .700 & then they loose it cuz its hard to stay hot when its freezing, but mauer had the advantage that when he started to play it was already warm & that helped him to stay hot)….
I’ll take the World Series ring and Minka Kelly any day. I’m sure Jeter would too. One of the best things about him as a player is that he doesn’t really seem to care about the individual awards, and would far prefer to be involved in the post season.
Abdababdaserser,
I think the time that Mauer missed creates some room for debate, but in this case I would have to agree with the MSM that Mauer is the most deserving MVP candidate. No single stat tells the whole story of course, but I found the following comparison pretty interesting. MLB’s OPS leaders were as follows: Pujols, Mauer, Fielder, Votto, Lee, Youkilis, Gonzalez. Obviously Mauer is the AL leader, but what really stands out to me is that everyone on this list is a 1B–except Mauer, who plays the most offensively-challenged position in baseball.
To illustrate the offense value of other catchers, consider that Brian McCann (4.4 WAR) was the only catcher throughout baseball that even provided half the value of Mauer (8.2 WAR). (Excluding V. Martinez since he oftens plays DH/1B.) I know there is a lot of debate about advanced metrics like WAR, but regardless of how you look at it, Mauer had a truly remarkable season.
I don’t think the front-runner status of guys for awards is bias, I think it’s more a reflection of their consistency.
The blatant bias and sanctimony of Hall of Fame voters is another matter altogether. Some have decided to create a penalty (lifetime Hall ban) that didn’t exist for violating rules that didn’t exist.
I’ll take the team awards the Yankees Earned,their 40th Pennant,and 27Th WS.
They don’t have to rely on the bias,hatred,and prejudgement from SPORTS WRITERS!!
When the Yankees get their big phat(cool) rings,it’ll remind all in baseball THEY ARE THE BEST!!
I’m still mad that Jeter was robbed of the MVP in 1999.
Rich, I’m still wondering how Jeter won a WS MVP, when clearly it should’ve gone to O’Neill!
One issue at a time, ditmars1929.
Jeter’s OPS+ in 1999 was 153.
The winner, I-Rod’s, was 125.
That’s just wrong.
“That goes for the AL Cy Young as well; it was Greinke’s to lose from, what, May on?”
Might have been his to lose, but in fairness to the guy, he didn’t lose it. From June on, he posted an ERA of 2.75 ERA (only King Felix had better – Sabathia was 3.32).
“I think Mauer is a valid MVP candidate, but I am bothered that far too frequently certain members of the media had made up their minds regardless of what any other player does.”
Mauer’s been pretty consistent all year. Look at Josh Hamilton in 2008. Looked at the ASB that the MVP was all his after a superb 1st 90 games or so. Then he fell off a cliff a little and the voters recognized it. They aren’t quite as dumb as people believe. Still dumb, but not THAT dumb.
People are blinded by their payroll,and equate the teams success on money alone.Joe will never get mgr of the year.
I find it amazing that Mo,who is a living legend,still the best at what he does,and doesn’t get an award.
Every closer in postseason imploded but not MO,sore ribs and all.
In the All Star game I smile,because not one coach dares to not use him to close the game!!
They know what we know,he’s great….no bias when home field is on the line.
I guarantee this.If Mauer ever became a Yankee,he’d have a hard time getting MVP,or any INDIVIDUAL award!!
The sports writers overlook the Yankees,blinded by their money.
“Jeter’s OPS+ in 1999 was 153.
The winner, I-Rod’s, was 125.
That’s just wrong.”
Should have been Pedro Martinez that year anyway. Boston was 26-5 in games he was in and 68-63 in games he wasn’t. He finished 2nd in the vote with George King and another writer leaving off their ballots. Ramirez posted a 1.105 OPS and has 44 homers and 165 rbi and finished 4th. Maybe the voters are as dumb as everyone thinks.
“Jeter has been close to the MVP before; in 1998, Jeter had a .864 OPS and finished third behind Juan Gonzalez, who won with a .997 OPS (Nomar Garciaparra finished second). In 2006, Jeter had a .900 OPS and lost to Justin Morneau who had a .934 OPS (both of which, by the way, were lower than third-place David Ortiz’s 1.049).”
Jeter was the best player in the game in 1999. He should have been the MVP that season.
I also have no problem if he wins it this year considering he was the best player on the best team.
Mariano Rivera is good, but a closer just isn’t worth as much as a guy that is impacting EVERY game. Mariano will get personal recognition when he is voted into the Hall of Fame in near unanimousity and then having the reliever award named after him.
“The sports writers overlook the Yankees,blinded by their money.”
In the 4 previous four votes, a Yankees player won twice and finished 2nd once.
“I guarantee this.If Mauer ever became a Yankee,he’d have a hard time getting MVP,or any INDIVIDUAL award!! ”
A-Rod holds his MVP award and says Hi.
Repost, Sam I disagree with you, if you take off tex april I think his # would’ve been far better then mauer’s, mauer didn’t play in the cold april & that’s why his # stayd that high(kind of the begining of the season a lot of players are batting .700 & then they loose it cuz its hard to stay hot when its freezing, but mauer had the advantage that when he started to play it was already warm & that helped him to stay hot)….
“unanimousity?
Mayne unanimity is what you were looking for.
But I like making up words, too. I do it a lot when I am observating sports.
“Jeter was the best player in the game in 1999. He should have been the MVP that season”
He wasn’t better than Alomar that year, IMO. Both were great, but Alomar had a much better season defensively to go along with leading the AL in runs and driving in 120.
But I like making up words, too. I do it a lot when I am observating sports.
–
When in doubt, make the word sound good.
“I guarantee this.If Mauer ever became a Yankee,he’d have a hard time getting MVP,or any INDIVIDUAL award!!
The sports writers overlook the Yankees,blinded by their money.”
Can you point to one award this decade, other than 2006 (which was an example of the media’s HR-and-RBI bias, not Yankee bias; Mauer had just as strong a case as Jeter did), that a Yankee should have won? They’ve won 3 of the 20 major awards this decade, more than their fair share. Everyone needs to feel persecuted somehow or other…
so who votes for this one?
all of theThe Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) or just some like the cy young.
does will carrol get another vote ?
he didn’t even know he had a vote on the cy young when he was called on the due date to see what his vote was.
the way i understand it carroll and law left carpenter off their cy young ballot partly because he didn’t pitch enough games being hurt part of the year.
so how do they justify voting for mauer over jeter if they do have a mvp vote when mauer only played in 138 games?
will carrol by the way is the guy who championed the gyro ball.
“In practice, the pitch may have more of a break than a drop. Baseball Prospectus writer Will Carroll, who has preached the gyroball’s virtues for years, says he’s seen the pitch curve 12 to 18 inches without much sinking motion at all.”- slate magazine
http://www.slate.com/id/2153373/
i’m wondering if the inclusion of internet writers helping or hurting getting the real winners?
i mean ,really, who is will carroll and what does he really know about baseball?
“Can you point to one award this decade, other than 2006″
Though I thought Santana should have won it, the ’05 Cy Young where Mo was 2nd to Bartolo “Hot Plate” Colon may have been a little iffy.
Unfortunately, I agree with Sam here. The fact is that the Yankees won this year because they played well as a TEAM. As I think was pointed out here very often all season — and often by the players themselves — there was not one individual that had to carry the team. Everyone contributed — and they have the numbers to prove it. The number of players on the team with 20+ homeruns is, I believe, record setting. The walk-off/final at-bat wins had someone different just about every game stepping up to help. The award for great team effort is called the World Series Trophy.
However, the MVP is the award for individual effort – who is the difference maker on their team? Without Mauer, the Twins never make it to the playoffs (no matter how brief that appearance was
).
Squidward
Should have been Pedro Martinez that year anyway. Boston was 26-5 in games he was in and 68-63 in games he wasn’t. He finished 2nd in the vote with George King and another writer leaving off their ballots. Ramirez posted a 1.105 OPS and has 44 homers and 165 rbi and finished 4th. Maybe the voters are as dumb as everyone thinks.
__
Who cares? Pedro didn’t win it, I-Rod did, so your point is really moot.
What’s great about baseball is that there are so many angles to look at things from, such as post season awards. Most years you could make an argument for multiple players to win the MVP. This year isn’t one of them. I’m as much of a homer as anyone else but it would be a joke if Mauer didn’t win the AL MVP. As others have pointed out, if Mauer was a DH you might make an argument that Jeter played a demanding defensive position to counter the superiority of Mauer’s offensive stats. But with Mauer playing catcher almost every night, there’s absolutely no way to take this award from him.
randy l.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:01 am
so who votes for this one?
all of theThe Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) or just some like the cy young.
***********************************************
I think it is just some — different BBWAA writers are selected to vote in each category. I think the original blogger for this site had an AL MVP vote this year….
“Who cares? Pedro didn’t win it, I-Rod did, so your point is really moot”
It is. But it’s less so than suggesting Jeter should have won it.
i mean ,really, who is will carroll and what does he really know about baseball?
–
This could be said for any member of the BBWAA. He writes for baseball prospectus and I assure you he most likely has watched as many games of baseball as the average baseball writer.
I could easily discredit the BBWAA ‘s more veteran council by posting any Bill Plaschke article. Especially the ones where he is implying Juan Pierre is better than Manny Ramirez. Usually in the form of horrible poetry.
Lori-very well said. Agree 100%
Squidward
It is. But it’s less so than suggesting Jeter should have won it.
___
What is this thread about? Right, it mentions Jeter’s chances of winning the MVP. Consequently, talking about Jeter’s best season and how it could have resulted in an MVP is quite relevant. So you’re just wrong.
“Consequently, talking about Jeter’s best season and how it could have resulted in an MVP is quite relevant.”
To paraphrase you “Who cares? Jeter didn’t win it, Irod did, so your point is really moot”
Jay
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:51 am
Repost, Sam I disagree with you, if you take off tex april I think his # would’ve been far better then mauer’s, mauer didn’t play in the cold april & that’s why his # stayd that high(kind of the begining of the season a lot of players are batting .700 & then they loose it cuz its hard to stay hot when its freezing, but mauer had the advantage that when he started to play it was already warm & that helped him to stay hot)….
——————————-
Why are you reposting something in the same thread?
Jerkface
If Mo is GOOD,how do you describe the other closers,that got more saves,but fell apart in postseason?
Mo is in a category unto himself,and yes I’ve always believe Selig would name a closer award after him for sure,at retirement.
If a Yankee is given an award great,but don’t hold your breath.
Joe Mauer will be the MVP and he should be – the numbers he put up were great – when you factor in that they were put up by a catcher they look insane. While I would love to have a Joe Mauer on the Yankees, I will be very upset if the Twins don’t find a way to keep this guy around long term. He’s their Derek Jeter and should be a Twin for life.
Good to see that adding all those Rule V guys only cost the Yankees Shelley Duncan. Though I would still assume that one or more of the group of Corona, Nunez, Russo or Pena will be traded this winter.
It’s looking less and less like Damon will be back – Boras has said that Johnny will get “significantly more” than the 2 year 19 mil contract that Abreu signed – I think that’s as high as the Yankees were planning to go.
White Sox are preparing an offer for Hideki Matsui, believed to be 2 years.
Squidward
To paraphrase you “Who cares? Jeter didn’t win it, Irod did, so your point is really moot”
__
Unfortunately, you can’t grasp my point.
Slowly now…
The thread at least in part is about Jeter.
Jeter lost out to I-Rod in the 1999 MVP vote.
So in order to make a case for Jeter to have won the MVP in 1999, logic dictates that one rebuts the credentials of the player that actually won.
Whether or not other players deserved it instead, let alone a pitcher (because there is a separate debate about whether or not a pitcher should win the MVP) is less relevant.
Thanks for playing.
Sometimes I wish awards were better defined. The MVP for position players, Cy Young for starting pitchers and the Rivera Award for the best reliever.
Personally I decided in 1978 when Guidry didn’t get the MVP that no starting pitcher would ever get my “vote” for that award. The same with Mariano never winning the Cy Young.
They just have to get rid of the statistical formula for the relief award and go to a vote.
“This could be said for any member of the BBWAA.”
jerkface-
i agree about some school writers not being qualified.
personally i think the players should vote for the mvp.
you have to admit that will carrol was a bit of a laughing stock with his obsession with the gyro ball.
unless there really is a gyro ball.
just because i haven’t seen one doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist.
that’s kind of my position on UFOs too.
wouldn’t it make more sense to have the players vote on who the MVP is?
i mean they’re the ones who play against the guy who finally wins it?
whether an old school or a new school writer do they really know as much about individual players as other players do?
it’s no big deal because it’s just an award( the real award is the world series championship earned on the field) , but if MLB is going to have awards doesn’t letting guys like will carrol have a vote make the whole process questionable?
“Squidward
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:01 am
“Can you point to one award this decade, other than 2006?
Though I thought Santana should have won it, the ‘05 Cy Young where Mo was 2nd to Bartolo “Hot Plate” Colon may have been a little iffy.”
I suppose you could argue for Rivera over Colon, but Santana was the one that got robbed there. And Santana actually finished *behind* Rivera, which cuts against the whole anti-Yankee-bias argument…
rather : “i agree about some old school writers not being qualified.”
The problem I have with the BBWAA is that each writer makes up their own rules – not criteria but rules. For example, Angel Berroa beat Matsui for RoY because some writer decided that Matsui shouldn’t be considered a rookie. Despite the fact that by MLB rules he was a rookie, this writer took it upon himself to say, “nope, he’s not.”
Another writer left Pedro off the MVP ballot because he decided that pitchers shouldn’t be elligible for the award.
By and large this is to be expected. The BBWAA has a bunch of folks who get full of themselves, whether it’s Bill Madden or Keith Law – and this is the only chance they have to flex their muscle in a way that matters. Which is why to me, for the most part, awards don’t matter.
Other teams can have the awards – I want my players to have the rings.
Eh, I don’t really care. Jeter never gets respect in the MVP voting, so I don’t expect him to finish in the top 5.
Jay, you can’t take Tex’ April out……
Not trying to knock Mauer, but, 25% of his games and at bats came as a DH. 6 catchers caught more than Mauer and even Varitek only caught one less game. That’s part of Mauer’s “value”, catching.
“Joe Mauer will be the MVP and he should be – the numbers he put up were great – when you factor in that they were put up by a catcher they look insane.”
Only Mauer didnt catch 138 games. Mauer was a DH in 28 games and 1B in 5 games.
That to me should hurt his MVP case, considering Jeter played 149 games as a SS and was excellent defensively as well.
I don’t believe the MVP is an open and shut case at all.
86:
I agree that the MVP at times seems to be a moving target. At times it goes to the guy who is truly viewed by the writers as the most valuable player and other times it seems like more of a Player of the Year vote.
Guidry thing always bugged me. Rice had a monster year that season, but Guidry was the difference between 1st place and a WS and finishing in 3rd or 4th (remember the 4th place team in the AL East won 90 that year). If Guidry had the year Sabathia had this year, they don’t make the playoffs in 1978. That’s how good Guidry was.
Oddly, 8 years later, when it was Clemens and Mattingly playing the role of Guidry and Rice, the vote went Clemens’ way.
I don’t believe pitchers should be eligible for the MVP….and I still believe (even though I eventually became a huge Clemens fan) that Donnie got robbed in 1986
Mauer will win MVP despite playing fewer games. He was just so good that his value in those games was enormous. Honestly, the only player that comes close is Ben Zobrist. Laugh all you want, Zobrist was incredibly valuable this year.
“Laugh all you want, Zobrist was incredibly valuable this year”
He’ll finish in the top 5-8 IMO.
Just to be clear: I believe Greinke was deserving of the Cy Young and he would’ve gotten my vote. I also, much as I would love for Jeter or Teixeira to get it, believe that Mauer is the right guy for the award this year.
I was just pointing out how sometimes when a player gets off to a fast start, unless he totally bottoms out, he’s already got the voters thinking in his direction. I don’t consider that bias, however, I do think that it’s harder for another play to take that “early favorite advantage” away.
Also I’d like to say to Sam, it’s a bit silly to only compare the OPS of MVP candidates as you do for Jeter’s 1999 and 2006 seasons. It’s unfair to compare him to first basemen and DH’s, you must adjust for position. In each of those seasons, his OPS pales in comparison to Morneau, Gonzalez, and Pudge but he did it from the SS spot which is insanely valuable.
Jetes basically got snubbed in 2006 and 1999 but if he won it this year he’d be taking it away from the very deserving Mauer.
Jeter is always going to suffer by playing on a deep team.
Voters will look at Mauer vs. Jeter and say – if you subtract Jeter from the Yankees they probably can fill in and still be a playoff contender but if you subtract Mauer from the Twins they finish third or fourth in the division.
For Derek to win the MVP he needs to have the kind of monster years that Alex had.
As I said though – Mauer can have the MVP – I’ll take the ring.
“He’ll finish in the top 5-8 IMO.”
He should probably finish first or second, not 5-8.
“I don’t believe pitchers should be eligible for the MVP….and I still believe (even though I eventually became a huge Clemens fan) that Donnie got robbed in 1986″
I lean more to Guidry being robbed in 1978, then Mattingly in 1986. By definition, Guidry and Clemens were their team’s and their league’s most valuable players in ’78 and ’86 respectively.
…THAN Mattingly in 1986.
“Jetes basically got snubbed in 2006 and 1999 but if he won it this year he’d be taking it away from the very deserving Mauer”
I don’t think he got snubbed in ’99. As I said earlier, Alomar was probably the best all around player that year and finished 4th. Should have been him or Martinez.
In ’06, he was hosed.
“He should probably finish first or second, not 5-8″
Well, he definitely shouldn’t finish 1st. I suspect if the Rays found their way to the playoffs, he’d be in the Top 3. He really had an outstanding year.
Mauer is a tremendous player. He carried the twinkies a long way on his back. However Jeter did much the same thing day in and day out. It is questionable whether NY would have gotten to and or won the WS without Jeter. Without a question for me he is the most valuable player in terms of actually reaching a goal, not almost reaching a goal.jmo
My ballot:
1. Mauer
2. Jeter
3. Greinke
4. Zobrist
5. Longoria
6. Cabrera
7. Pedroia
8. Youkilis
9. Teixeira
10. Ichiro
so does anyone know which BBWAA writers get to vote on this mvp?
you’d think the BBWAA would publish a list and then what each writer voted.
maybe they do.
it would make for some good debate afterward if they did.
LOL http://www.bostondirtdogs.com a picture paints a thousand words.Me thinks somebody is angry at Boras!
Mauer = lock
I think Tex is far more deserving than Jeter, though. While Jeter’s intangibles are always a factor, Tex was the difference maker this year. He won half of Jeter’s gold glove, and drove in the bulk of the runs for this potent offense.
“Jeter is always going to suffer by playing on a deep team.
For Derek to win the MVP he needs to have the kind of monster years that Alex had.
As I said though – Mauer can have the MVP – I’ll take the ring.”
Chip – exactly, we all know that Derek Jeter can care less about whether or not he ever wins an MVP … he has five rings and counting. That’s what he is concerned with.
If he gets to #6 and beyond then he is in rarified air. Only the likes of Ruth, DiMaggio, Gehrig, Mantle, and Berra have won more than 5 titles.
The only players over the past 25 years that I can think of who won 5 before the “Core 4″ were Reggie and Catfish (3 with Oakland, 2 with the Yankees).
“The only players over the past 25 years that I can think of who won 5 before the “Core 4?”
Posada get a ring in ’96???? Looked like he had an 15 AB cup o coffee and didn’t appear in a postseason game.
What does Nick Punto need to do to win this award darn’t!?
Chad, in response to your “untouchables” post, I have to agree whole-heartedly. In the right trade for the right starting pitcher, the Yankees must be willing to give up one of Chamberlain or Hughes.
If a team asks for one of those guys and then Jackson, I’d be hesitant for the exact reasons you mentioned…we lack that depth in our system.
I am really two ways about Halladay. He’s 3 years younger than Clemens was when we traded Wells, Lloyd, and Bush for the Rocket after the 98 season. Halladay has experience pitching against Boston, NY, and Tampa.
I guess the kicker for me would be what kind of money Doc is lookin for in an extension. I’d be highly wary of offering him big dollars because, unlike the Rocket, he won’t have HGH to sustain his body
“What does Nick Punto need to do to win this award darn’t!?”
Learn how to run the bases?
I’m not even sure Jeter’s the MVP on the Yankees.
A look at the 2009 World Series run through a 12,000 photo time-lapse. awesome:
http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/.....ref=sports
On another subject – completely new winter plan:
1. Let Damon, Matsui, Nady, Hinske, Hairston & Molina go
2. Re-sign Andy
3. Sign Kelvim Escobar
4. Trade Aceves, Ian Kennedy, Dellin Betances, Melky Cabrera for Chase Headly
6. Sign Fernando Tatis for a bench role
7. Sign Scott Podsednik
8. Sign Matt Holliday
Lineup:
Jeter
Podsednik (CF)
Tex
Alex
Holliday (LF)
Posada
Headly (RF)
Cano
Swisher (DH)
Bench: Tatis, Pena, Cervelli, Gardner
Rotation:
CC
AJ
Andy
Escobar
Joba/Hughes
Pen:
Joba/Hughes, D-Rob, Melancon, Mo, Mitre, Marte, Coke
“I’m not even sure Jeter’s the MVP on the Yankees.”
I think it was Sabathia, but Jeter’s season was awfully important to the Yankees’ success.
damon enjoy 27,
I would never argue that Boras is not good at what he does. He’s the best.
But he has screwed up in the past (A-Rod) and some of his latest sales pitches are an absolute joke. Genetics??? He’s using genetics to argue Damon’s value? What a crock.
Damon had his best season, arguably, in 2009. He’s 36. He’s going to decline and it will happen sooner than later. I don’t care if he’s a naturally gifted athlete, he will break down and he sucks in the OF.
I’d like him back for another year, but anything more than 9-10 million is way too much…in fact I think 9-10 may be too much.
4. Trade Aceves, Ian Kennedy, Dellin Betances, Melky Cabrera for Chase Headly
Why would the Pads do this?
Forget Halladay for a second – there are lots of reports that Josh Johnson and the Marlins are at a contract impasse – what would you give up for a 25-year old established stud pitcher?
Would you deal Joba and Montero for Johnson?
Why would the Pads do this?
No clue – just throwing it out there.
Chip,
Bad moves all around.
Escobar? No thanks…that guy is like Mr. Glass.
We’d get ripped off by Boras for Holliday not to mention the fact that he is overrated anyways. Chase Headly? Uh, ok.
I’d rather have Matsui and Damon in our lineup than Matt Holliday.
I think the one move that is at least mildly interesting is Podsednik, but he has been very inconsistent over the past few years since ChiSox won it in 2005. I highly doubt he’d be batting 2nd.
Stop being Nick Punto would be a start!
“Would you deal Joba and Montero for Johnson?”
Seems a little too much from the Yankees side.
The Mad Prince in Pinstripes
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:29 am
I’d rather have Matsui and Damon in our lineup than Matt Holliday.
*********************
You and me both.
Chip,
Ya, interesting bit about Johnson…I’d have to think that if they pass on Halladay, Johnson would be the guy they’d want.
The problem with Johnson is that he wants to get paid.
I think its possible that he would demand more money and years than Halladay. Years at the very least.
I figure Halladay will be looking for something in the 5 year, $100 million range whereas I’d guess that Johnson is going to be looking for something in the 7 year, $110-120 million range. It would definitely be who of Johnson to sign that length of contract as he’d be a Free Agent in his prime at 31 (theoretically).
Squidward
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:27 am
4. Trade Aceves, Ian Kennedy, Dellin Betances, Melky Cabrera for Chase Headly
Why would the Pads do this?
——————————-
Better question: Why would the Yankees want Chase Headly?
Mad Prince -
I think that Holliday might drop to a deal in the Carlos Lee range of 6 years 100 mil – if he does, I think that’s a better investment than Johnny Damon – especially since I truly believe Damon’s going to get at least one 3 year offer and it sounds like the White Sox are going to offer Matsui 2 years.
I like both those players but not for those years.
I don’t really think the Padres would deal Chase Headley so it’s moot (unless the Yankees took back someone’s contract and I don’t think San Diego has any contracts left) I was just looking for a player with upside that *might* be available under some strange circumstances – it was either going to be him or Billy Butler – I just drew a blank on more likely potential targets.
As for Escobar – I’m not talking about investing huge money in him – but as a buy low type of investment I think he would be great in the back of the rotation (or even in the pen)
Chip:
Where are you seeing info on the White Sox/Matsui thing?
Melky Cabrera is younger and better than Chase Headley
Chip,
I think the best “buy low” option for our OF is named Austin Jackson. My guess is he makes the 2010 team after the All Star Break.
Escobar…nothing but injury trouble his whole career. he’s talented, sure, but I think there are numerous alternatives that could be had for relatively cheap. Shoot, someone like Randy Wolf shouldn’t command THAT much $$ or years. I’m not saying I’d necessarily want Wolf tho
Squidward
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:31 am
“Would you deal Joba and Montero for Johnson?”
Seems a little too much from the Yankees side.
———————
Really? A prospect without a true position and a pitcher who may be a good starter for a pitcher who is already a top flight starter and is only 25 is “too much” from the Yankees?
Seems like maybe you’re over-valuing the Yankee side of things a bit.
And of course Josh is going to want to get paid, figure something between what AJ and CC got – but while the Yankees have been trying to develop a young stud pitcher to anchor the rotation – here is one ready made for them.
And why do people want to keep putting Swisher at DH. He is an above average RF. A lot better than Chase Headley.
To me the offer for Halladay should reflect the value of a top pitcher for one year who will be paid $ 15 Million. What it takes to keep him beyond the upcoming year should be viewed through the prism of free agency.
IF you do that, the offer won’t be all that strong, nor should it be. I would not include Joba, Hughes or Montero in any trade that didn’t involve a starter (Johnson, Felix) or corner OF (Ethier) with the ability to be an All-Star for years to come.
If that means no trades, that’s fine. The Yanks are the WS Champs and can afford to act like it.
lets go yankees,
I agree…I don’t see Headley as much of an upgrade over Melky.
Melky Cabrera is younger and better than Chase Headley
At what?
Fielding – maybe. But under no circumstances should Melky Cabrera be a starting corner outfielder.
Mad Prince –
I said that Escobar would be a good buy low option for the rotation.
I have no problem with Austin Jackson in the OF – however there are some warning flags if you look at his last season. He had a good batting average but a HUGE batting average on balls put in play combined with an amazing number of strikeouts – that batting average on balls in play was so high that almost everyone predicts it will come down and if the K’s stay in the range they’re at, he’s going to hit in the .250s.
The Matsui to Chicago thing was on Foxsports radio yesterday.
Chip,
I’d like you to review this, and get back to us:
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....son-19809/
Thanks
I agree…I don’t see Headley as much of an upgrade over Melky.
subtract from his stats his numbers hitting in Yellowstone (aka PETCO) and you’ll get a more accurate look at what Headley is capable of – but like I said, it’s moot – the Padres have no reason to move him.
86w183,
Interesting points, but I doubt the Jays are going to be looking at it that way.
With that, I think it is true that Doc’s value was at its peak last season before the trade deadline. They won’t get nearly as much as they would have.
The Jays are giong to be selling, without even needing to mention the fact, that Halladay is an Ace in the AL East, a proven stud who is still relatively young. I’d guess Doc has upwards of 4 solid years left in him.
Put him on a team like the Yankees with a nasty offense and the best closer ever behind him and you’ve got a recipe for absolute dominance.
Vin,
Cute – but at least it changed the conversation from a meaningless postseason award and whether or not there is a bias against Derek Jeter.
Melky Cabrera is younger and better than Chase Headley
At what?
Fielding – maybe. But under no circumstances should Melky Cabrera be a starting corner outfielder.
————————–
2009:
Melky: .274 AVG, .336 OBP .416 SLG .752 OPS
Chase: .262 AVG, .342 OBP .392 SLG .734 OPS
Basically a push offensively although that under 400 SLG from Chase is uuuugggglllyyyy and Melky is a better fielder so yeah Melky > Chase Headley
Melky + our prospects >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Chase
Mad Prince -
I’ve asked this before and I’ll keep on asking it – If the Yankees were unwilling to part with their high level prospects for Johan why would they do it for Halladay?
Josh Johnson makes more sense based on Brian Cashman’s desire to a) get younger and b) part with top prospects only for players he can control for a few years before having to re-sign.
Before we get all a twitter about the prospect of trading for Josh Johnson remember he has already had a major injury and missed almost all of 2007 and more than half of 2008. He’s been outstanding since then (3.34 ERA in 47 starts) but that’s in a big park in the NL.
It converts to a 3.86 or so in the AL. That’s very good, but hardly makes him a world beater.
Lets Go Yankees -
Headley also played in a HUGE park – look at his road numbers.
.305 BA, .803 OPS
Put him in a park where you actually get rewarded for putting the ball in play and his confidence and production will both increase.
“It converts to a 3.86 or so in the AL. That’s very good, but hardly makes him a world beater.”
Good points. I think many overvalue him based on how great he pitched against the Yanks this year.
“Really? A prospect without a true position and a pitcher who may be a good starter for a pitcher who is already a top flight starter and is only 25 is “too much” from the Yankees?”
Johnson has had one very strong 200+ inning season. He appears headed to being an ace level guy, but he’s not there yet. Further, he’s on the cusp of making real money whereas Joba is not there and Montero is 5 years from it. In 2011 are they better off with what projects to be a very strong bat and a Joba at combined $3 million or so, or Johnson at two or three times that?
Chip,
While I will not overhype Jackson, I will argue that he is still pretty young and not fully developed. The K’s should go down as he gains experience and the average should go up, along with the SBs.
Who knows what he’ll do…but you have to give him the opportunity at some point.
86 -
Can’t argue with anything you’ve said. However Halladay is 32 and a free-agent after this season who will be looking for a 6 or 7 year contract.
Cashman’s not going to give up a package of Hughes, Montero, and another prospect for a player he then has to give a 6 year 160 million dollar contract to. Not his style.
I think he would be much more likely to deal for a 25 year old pitcher under his control through 2011 and then give the big contract to him.
“so does anyone know which BBWAA writers get to vote on this mvp?”
I know of one. Pete A.
Coincidentally, the NY Times does not let its writers take part in any vote.
I’ve thought about which group of voters would offer the best result.
The Managers?
They already screw up the Gold Gloves.
The Fans?
They turn the ASG into a popularity contest.
What about broadcasters?
Why do we always assume that guys whose job is to write about baseball are somehow smarter than those paid to talk about baseball.
Who knows what he’ll do…but you have to give him the opportunity at some point.
I absolutely give him the opportunity. In fact I give it to him this spring. Let him compete with Melky and Gardner for CF and may the best man win.
What I do not want to happen – under any circumstances whatsoever – is for the Yankees to head to NY with an OF of Melky, Jackson and Swisher.
Melky just does not produce enough to be an everyday corner OF and his glove is not good enough to make up for that.
Josh Johnson isn’t on the trading block.
Craw –
Never said that he was – just said that the Marlins and Johnson are at an impasse for a long term deal and asked what you would give up for him if you were Cashman.
If we’re going to talk about Halladay (whom is just as likely to be a Yankee as Johnson) why not mix it up?
“What about broadcasters?”
You want to put in Hawk Harrleson’s hands?
How about just do away with personal awards.
The only thing that matters is the title. Any player who is content winning personal awards on bad teams is a player I don’t want on my team.
Alex said it best when he won the MVP a couple of years ago “I would trade this in a second for one of Derek’s rings.”
“If we’re going to talk about Halladay (whom is just as likely to be a Yankee as Johnson) why not mix it up?”
Actually, at this point, I think Halladay is more likely to be a Yankee than Johnson. When Johnson becomes available then that changes.
If Cashman was going to trade for Halladay he would have traded for Johan two years ago.
Exact same situation. He can either deal for Johan or sit back and try to sign CC. He chose the latter – in this case he can either deal for Halladay or try to sign him as a FA or go for Cliff Lee or Josh Beckett instead and keep Jesus Montero.
Chip,
RE: Halladay vs. Santana
You could argue that there was some health concerns about Santana that scared off Boston and New York. You could argue that, at the time, Hughes was more valuable to the Yankees than he might be right now…same with Joba.
Regarding the latter, Joba/Hughes as starters, I don’t think either of them is where the Yankees expected them to be at this point. Hughes was in the pen last year, basically taking one for the team, and Joba was inconsistent. None of this means that they won’t figure it out, but at the time Cashman held on to Hughes, he was still rebuilding their farm system. He’s done that and is continuing to do it by employing a similar strategy as Epstein employed about a year or two before Cashman did when he finally gained control.
If the price is outrageous, you say no thanks. No one really knows exactly what the Jays are asking for right now, but you have to assume its a ML Ready starter and one or two mid to high level prospects.
As someone mentioned, the Yankees just won the World Series and have the resources to compete in 2010.
However, if I am Cashman, I have some serious reservations about whether or not BOTH Hughes and Joba will make strides in the rotation in 2010. The ability is there, obviously, but if one of those guys works out and one is traded for an Ace to go 1-2 with Sabathia and boost our chances for a dynastic baseball realm, you have to entertain it.
I should amend my last comment to say that while Joba/Hughes may not be where the Yankees “hoped” they would AT THIS POINT, I’m not saying they’ve let the Yankees down by any means.
Ben Zobrist? The Rays finished in 3rd place….
Everyone has different definitions of valuable, but for me, the team has to win or else how valuable was that player? Maybe they should have a Best Player and MVP award…….
Chip,
I think another important tidbit to consider is that our rotation at the time we were considering Santana was Wang, Moose, and then what?
Our bullpen was a mess.
That’s not the case. Theoretically, we should have a rotation of CC, AJ, Pettitte, and one of Hughes or Joba and then the 5th slot.
We have at least 5 “capable” arms in our pen with Robertson, Aceves, Marte, Joba or Hughes, and Mo.
I am of the opinion that the team is vastly superior right now than it was when Santana was made available. Cashman has rebuilt the team and the farm, although the farm is still a work in progress.
Put it this way: I think its more feasible for the Yankees to make this trade now than it was 3 years ago.
I don’t agree, Squid – Mattingly was amazing in 1996. IMO, he earned that award.
Am I personally lobbying for it? No.
Would I love it? Depending on the ransom, heck ya!
But its nice to have options, right?
betsy,
Mattingly wasn’t on the Yankees in 1996.
“If Cashman was going to trade for Halladay he would have traded for Johan two years ago.
Exact same situation. He can either deal for Johan or sit back and try to sign CC. He chose the latter – in this case he can either deal for Halladay or try to sign him as a FA or go for Cliff Lee or Josh Beckett instead and keep Jesus Montero.”
I can’t say that for sure because I don’t know what the Yankee evaluaters think of Halladay versus what their opinion is of Santana. Furthermore, who’s to say that the Yankees opinion of Joba or Hughes today is the same as it was two years ago. Circumstances and opinions change over time so who knows what Cashman and his team is thinking right now in regard to possible trades.
I believe that the Yankees and Red Sox Philosophy is to have Halladay traded outside the Division, or better yet the NL. They are going to block each other at every turn. That’s what will make it easier for a team like the Phils, Mets, or Dodgers to swoop in and get him. I see the Yanks looking into Lackey, but not going over 4 years/60-65 mil. If he falls through, then maybe a trade for Derek Lowe, with Atlanta kicking in some cash. I think Damon will resign for two years, at about 18M. I think Matsui is gone. Andy probably re-signs before Christmas, for 1 year @ 11-12M We may see Mark Derosa coming in as a utility guy, and a possible a righty reliever, for the right price. I don’t see anything Earth shattering on the horizon this year though.
“I don’t agree, Squid – Mattingly was amazing in 1996. IMO, he earned that award.”
That’s why we have such a forum Betsy. Nothing wrong with a little disagreement. To me the bottom line was Boston doesn’t win without Clemens that year. Yanks wouldn’t have won without Mattingly………but they didn’t win with him either. He had a great year, but to me a ridiculously good pitching season is more valuable than a ridiculously good hitting season.
Mad Prince -
Whatever injury concerns surrounded Johan are balanced by the age issues surrounding Halladay – while there’s no questioning Roy’s performance you have to wonder how much he has left and he’s going to want at least a contract like CC’s
The Yankee rotation the year Johan was available:
Moose (off a bad year), Wang, Hughes (on tight pitch restriction), Kennedy and they were going to work Joba in and hopeful that Andy would come back.
Yankee rotation this year:
CC, AJ, Andy if he wants to come back, Joba with no restrictions, Hughes/Kennedy/other.
In other words – the Yankees don’t need an ace – they could use a back end starter though (ie Kelvim Escobar)
Jesus Montero (who would likely be going in any deal for Halladay) is considered an elite hitting prospect just as Joba/Hughes were considered elite pitching prospects.
Now, if the price on Halladay drops like it did with Johan and the Yankees can swoop in and get him for Melky, McAllister, and Dellin Betances – I think they do it in a heartbeat – but if Toronto wants upper level prospects then Cashman will pass.
Chip —
I never suggested two of the top three guys in the system for Halladay. I have written many times I am opposed to trading Hughes, Joba OR Montero unless its for an in-his-prime All Star caliber starter or corner OF.
No one knows for certain what the Yankees last offer for Santana was or what the Twins last request/demand was. Remember there were health concerns about Santana at the time that impact the thought process.
I’m sorry, but if Joba or Hughes is the best player Toronto wants for Halladay and don’t insist on Montero then Cashman has to seriously think about that trade proposal.
Furthermore, who’s to say that the Yankees opinion of Joba or Hughes today is the same as it was two years ago.
I don’t see how that has anything to do with anything. As I said above – even if we take for granted that Cashman thinks Hughes or Joba are back end starters it’s still not going to matter. We’re not talking about Hughes or Joba for Halladay straight up. The Yankees would almost certainly have to include Jesus Montero or Austin Jackson in a deal and those two prospects have the same cache that Hughes and Joba had two years ago.
Beyond that – unlike two years ago – the Yankees have no need for an Ace. They have one in CC, and as talented a pitcher as there is in Burnett behind him. What they could use is a back of the rotation arm to provide insurance for Joba and Hughes.
I’m sorry, but if Joba or Hughes is the best player Toronto wants for Halladay and don’t insist on Montero then Cashman has to seriously think about that trade proposal.
but why would Anthopolis make that deal?
Yes, Hughes and Joba have tremendous upside and are still young pitchers, but are they really better than what the Jays could get with the two draftpicks they would get as compensation for just letting Halladay sign with another team as a free agent?
Montero on the other hand is a special bat at (for now) a prime position and is only 19 and has no major league service time.
I also think it’s worth considering that the Yankees under Hal will have a budget – assuming the Yankees signed Halladay to a new contract you’re talking about nearly $60 mil in three pitchers and almost $160 mil for 8 players (Jeter, Alex, Tex, Jorge, Mo, AJ, CC, Halladay) I just don’t see them doing that when they can sign a Kelvim Escobar/Randy Wolf type for the back end of the rotation and still have a stellar starting rotation.
With Halladay there are so many unknowns it’s very difficult to debate the pros and cons.
We don’t know if he’ll agree to a trade to the Yankees or anyone else for that matter.
We don’t know if he would insist on an extension and if so how big it would have to be.
We don’t know if he told Toronto to trade him
We don’t know if the new GM was told to dramatically decrease the 2010 payroll no matter what.
We don’t know if the Yankees will add payroll
and the list goes on and on
Kelvim Escobar has made one start in two years. He’s in there with Sheets and Wang as low guarantee incentive potential guys but not ones you can count on.
Chip,
What if Cashman DOESN’T take for granted that Hughes or Joba are back end starters? At this point, what certainty is there with either guy?
I get what you’re saying about a back end pitcher instead of an Ace since we don’t “need” one. And I know we may be just as well off not trading for one.
But you’ll have to forgive me for daydreaming about a rotation of CC, Doc, AJ, and Andy and whoever else in the 5 slot.
Filthy lefty, filthy righty, filthy righty, scrappy lefty.
We’ll see.
ITS GREAT TO HAVE OPTIONS!!!
I agree, Chip.
Many would say if a team has more than one MVP candidate, none of them deserve it