Today’s award: NL MVP
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- November
- 24
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The official announcement of today’s winner will be at 2 p.m. Until then, here are my thoughts and predictions. Feel free to chime in with your own.
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National League MVP
The favorite: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
The contenders: Prince Fielder, Brewers; Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
The dark horses: Derrek Lee, Cubs; Andre Etheir, Dodgers
The (former) Yankee with a chance: Um … Nick Johnson had a .831 OPS. That’s pretty good, right?
Morning analysis: Unless the guy from yesterday is voting again, this one ought to be unanimous for Pujols. He had a MLB-best 1.101 OPS, MLB-best 47 home runs and – just for fun – even stole 16 bases. If he doesn’t win, it’s CSI-style robbery.
The pick: It’s Pujols (duh).
The record: 6-for-7 (hit on Coghlan, Greinke, Scioscia, Tracy, Lincecum and Mauer; missed on Bailey)
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on Tuesday, November 24th, 2009 at 8:47 am by Sam Borden.
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Chad Jennings
Josh Thomson
“The record: 6-for-7 (hit on Coghlan, Greinke, Scioscia, Tracy, Lincecum and Mauer; missed on Bailey)”
sam-
are your picks who you think will win or who you think should win because they were the best player ?
that’s really two different things.
if your picks are who you thought would win, who do you think should have won that didn’t ?
I think the only way Halladay is a Yankee is if they can make a deal without Joba or Hughes, which is very unlikely.
Here’s why: If they do nothing but sign Pettitte, the rotation is: CC, AJ, Andy, Joba, Phil. If they trade for Halladay, they would have to re-sign Pettitte. They would have CC, AJ, Halladay, and Joba or Phil, and the 5th would be basically nobody. They would need Pettitte in that case, but it would be 16M for Halladay, @11M for Andy. I don’t think they are looking to add that much payroll, but of course they have done it before.
I think if they trade Joba or Phil for a pitcher, they would do it for a cheaper(payroll wise) option like Josh Johnson, so that they would be able to bring back Pettitte to round out the rotation. But somebody like that would come at a very steep player/prospect cost.
If Toronto’s asking price comes down for Halladay, below a starting point of Hughes or Joba, they would be in for that, but so would a lot of other teams.
If NYY trades for Hallday and one of Hughes or Chamberlain is involved, I’d prefer that NYY resigns Pettitte (whether Halladay is traded for or not)and signs Ben Sheets as an addition to the rotation for a one year plus option. If not sheets, then Harden. Let them build their value with NYY. It buys one more year. I’d prefer to stay away from Lackey.
Betsy -
I don’t think it’s too much to ask of a starter to go 7 innings. 7-plus is, I would agree, unusual and would be a plus if you could get that even on occasion. But it should not be some unreal demand for a starter to go 7.
Doc Halladay can go 9. I’m not looking for that.
The real problem lies in having 3 consecutive pitchers who CANNOT go into the 7th almost ever.
Im willing to give up either Joba or Hughes for Halladay. If we can’t get Hallady then Lackey is next up!
I don’t want the Yankees to do what the Sox did last year.
Sign a bunch of unhealthy , past there primes . pitchers.
Its about quality not quantity. Red Sox had all the depth in April and by the ALL Star break they had nothing. (Smoltz . Penny ,)
My point was, after Halladay then what? If Joba or Hughes goes, who is no. 5? Gaudin, Aceves, Kennedy? Fo a full season? I don’t think so.
GreenBeret7-Do you think it is realistic for the Yankees to pay Haladay 16M and Pettitte 11M, AND 6-9M to Sheets or Harden?
I think it is much more likely to be big money to one pitcher, whether it is Roy, Andy, or somebody else, then go for Joba and Phil, or a much lower cost option to replace one of them.
Pettitte did alright in getting through 7 innings this past year. 10 starts of 7+ innings and another 5 games of getting 1 or 2 outs in the 7th inning. That’s about half of his 32 starts.
If Pettitte stays and the Yankees trade for Halladay with either Joba or Hughes then the one left is the 5th starter with backup from Gaudin, Aceves and Kennedy. Let’s not overestimate the importance of the 5th starter.
Not many teams are going to pay Sheets or Harden 6 mil+, unless it’s because incentives kicked in. They’ve got to prove they are both effective and healthy.
Seriously? We’re still on Halladay? It’s just not gonna happen folks.
In other news, there had been reports that the Yankees were very interested in Jermaine Dye – the NY Post quotes Yankee sources as saying that’s an overstatement and Cashman has said he hasn’t had any conversations with players or agents and won’t until he speaks to the Steinbrenners sometime after Thanksgiving.
I like Dye. but i’m not sure how he fits on this team ?
Regarding Sheets/Harden (and Bedard for that matter)
Brad Penny got 5.5 mil from Boston last year – as the three players above are more talented than Penny I can see any or all of them getting at least 6 mil.
I said on Sheets a few days ago – I can see him getting 2 years, 5-6 mil per with incentives that take that up to 10 or 11 and a vesting option that kicks in if he hits something like 375 IP over the first two years for a third year at 15 mil.
Based on his performance, if you’re getting that number of innings from Sheets than a 3 year, 35 mil contract is a steal.
nice season in review video (all mlb) if you have 5 mins or so to spare:
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.....id=7129035
I have to say Sam, you are getting the winners right but not the contenders. Chase Utley should be an easy runner-up.
Smoltz made 5.5M last year as a 42 yo coming off of major shoulder surgery, Penny made 5M. Harden is expected to be ready for ST, on potential alone, he should get at least 6M. He made 7M this year.
Sheets is probably a mostly incentives type of deal, but if you didn’t think he could reach the incentives that would push him to 6M+, why would you even talk to him?
Mike -
He can still play a little RF and do some DHing. Give the Yankees another power bat.
I said this yesterday – I would seriously consider bringing back Xavier Nady.
Nady has the ability to play LF, RF, 1b & DH. He’s a good hitter, has performed in NY and won’t cost a ton of money since he’s coming off of a lost season.
Interesting comparison of three pitchers and the length they give you… this past season.
Andy Pettite 32 starts 7+ innings 10X
John Lackey 27 starts 7+ innings 17X
Doc Halladay 32 starts 7+ innings 27X
That’s extremely significant. I think I really want Doc. He’s just an absolute horse. He’ll make AJ better and make life easier for the bullpen.
Having a front four of CC, Doc, AJ and Pettite lets you go younger, cheaper and more athletic in the OF because you wont need as much offense.
The Yankees are only going to add 1 high priced arm.
Andy is #1 on that list.
The only way I see the Yankees going after Lacky or trading for Halladay, is if Andy retires.
Honestly, trading 1 starter for another is against Cashman’s ways.
Plan on Andy being back at 11-12mil.
I do see them going for at least 1 maybe 2 rehab guys. Sheets and Wang work for me. Can’t have them on the 40man until they are ready though.
I think your right on Pat from CT. its going to be either Halladay or Lackey.
I’d be pumped with either one ! .
Patrick from CT
November 24th, 2009 at 9:52 am
The Yankees are only going to add 1 high priced arm.
Andy is #1 on that list.
The only way I see the Yankees going after Lacky or trading for Halladay, is if Andy retires.
Honestly, trading 1 starter for another is against Cashman’s ways.
****************************
Completely agree
I think I really want Doc.
I’m sure you’re not alone. But I don’t see it happening, and some of the scenarios that have been suggested make me chuckle. (such as: Yankees should get Halladay but not give up Jesus Montero, Joba or Hughes to do it.)
Is it possible that Halladay gets traded for a package similar to what the Mets gave up for Johan? Sure, but it won’t be to the Yankees. If Alex Anthopolus is going to give away Halladay he’s going to give him away to a team outside the division. If the Yankees/Red Sox want him it’s going to cost more.
Beyond that – the Yankees don’t have a need for him. They could use a back of the rotation starter/inning’s eater but already have an ace for the top of the rotation. And if they do, then it is much more in keeping with Cashman’s pattern for him to sign John Lackey than give up prospects and a big contract to get Halladay.
In the end, I think they’ll be content to get a back of the rotation arm and take aim at a deeper pool of FA pitchers next winter.
Honestly, trading 1 starter for another is against Cashman’s ways.
It isn’t against his ways to trade for a #1 starter; but what he won’t do is trade for an ACE that he then has to also sign to a long term deal.
He’s willing to give up prospects or money, but not both.
Damon has certianly been a good player for the Yankees, but he may be pricing himself out of there. If he can get $13M somewhere, he should go get it.
Holliday may require a 5-6 year contract, but at the end of that he would still be younger(I think) than Damon is now. Additionally, he is a better player. That is the Yankees other option. I really don’t see trading valuable pitching prospects or Montero for an outfielder. Jackson, perhaps, since that would be trading apples for apples.
This will be Pujols 3rd MVP?
One ring, three MVPs.
Sounds like our guy.
Speaking of, haven’t heard anything about the hip. I guess he’s good to go.
agreed that i dont see halladay on our team this year. if somehow, the jays hold onto him until the offseason, the yankees will go hard for him in 2011.
Bronx Jeers
November 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Speaking of, haven’t heard anything about the hip. I guess he’s good to go.
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I’m assuming the same thing-I’d imagine we would have heard by now if a second surgery was needed
wait a minute – just read the rest of that post – now I respect Andy as much as anyone – but you can’t compare him to Halladay in terms of ability.
First of all – there are only a few true ACEs in baseball:
CC, Halladay, Johan, King Felix, Grienke, Linc
Then there is a group of very good number 1 starters
Lackey, Buerhle, Wainwright, Zambrano, Lee, Beckett….
Then there is the group that contains Andy – solid veteran starters.
I would prefer lackey.That way you can keep Hughes and Joba(and a-jax).
Didn’t this free agent thing worked pretty well last year….??
“I’m assuming the same thing-I’d imagine we would have heard by now if a second surgery was needed”
I certainly hope so. If he pulls a “Shaq” and all of a sudden decides he needs the surgery right before ST, he is going to lose a lot of the goodwill he built up this season.
I read a couple weeks ago that the Twins released Carlos Gomez. Maybe we can pick him up and use him as the headliner in a trade for Halladay, Felix, or JJ. Sounds ridiculous, but it worked once before!
wild thought. we resign damon (2), matsui (1) and pettitte (1)…
then randy wolf
When they interviewed Alex’s doctor during the WS he indicated that he thought Alex was good and would not need a second surgery.
Fran,
He said based on the clinical exam, but they would have to do an MRI and tests after the season to make sure. Hopefully those are done and everything is ready to go.
The problem with saying “replace Damon with Holliday” is that you’re using two completely different players and hoping to get the same results.
Forget the defensive side of things for a second (Holliday is a better LF than Damon at this stage) but in the lineup Holliday replaces Matsui’s power production and protects Alex, but who do you put in the 2 spot?
I agree with you that if Damon wants (and can find) a multi year deal at 13 mil per theen he should take it, but you can’t just sign Holliday and call it a day – you have to replace him in the 2 spot – for me that would either be a short deal for Randy Winn or a trade for David DeJesus.
I would, in fact, be fine with the Yankees brining in one of those two players, re-signing Xavier Nady to split RF/DH with Swisher, adding a little pop to the bench (Fernando Tatis?) and signing Ben Sheets or Kelvim Escobar to incentive laden deals.
Tex –
Randy Wolf in the AL = disaster
I think they’re going to want someone at DH who is capable of playing the field. As good as Matsui is, when Girardi needs to give Damon or Posada a day at DH you can’t play Matsui at all.
I have no problem bringing Damon back and still upgrading the outfield and letting Damon be the primary DH (he’s still capable of playing the field from time to time) but I don’t think he’s going to accept the type of deal the Yankees will be comfortable offering.
A couple of observations:
-Going into the season with Andy, Joba, and Phil 3-5 is asking for trouble.
-Trading for a frontline pitcher that would really improve the team would be very costly in terms of dollars and/or players, therefore unlikely.
-I don’t like Lackey as a short or long term fix.
-Many of the other possibilities-Randy Wolf, etc, I wouldn’t trust to beat the Royals or Orioles, let alone the real teams.
-I think the best bet may be to re-sign Pettitte, bring in Sheets on an incentive deal in case Hughes or Joba can’t get it done. Find a way to retain Wang, he could be a contributor from August on.
-Sign Chapman to be Andy’s replacement in 2010 or 2011.
Mark,
Thanks for the clarification.
I dont believe Cash will lock yet another FA starter into his mid 30s when we have a lot of talent coming up. He will want someone he can get for 1-2 years unless he finds a way to get halladay.
I dont know about Phil, but i think Joba will have a good season not that he knows he will pitch every 5th day and he experienced the negative that comes with the yankee fame.
Mark in Tampa
November 24th, 2009 at 10:12 am
I read a couple weeks ago that the Twins released Carlos Gomez. Maybe we can pick him up and use him as the headliner in a trade for Halladay, Felix, or JJ. Sounds ridiculous, but it worked once before!
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Gomez wasn’t released. He was traded to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy.
Chip, I agree signing Holliday wouldn’t end the offensive needs. I would think that a lefthanded DH, whether Matsui Thome or the like could be added. I’m sure cost would be critical if they spend money on Holliday.That doesn’t end the question of who would hit second. Holliday certainly could if Matsui hits 5th. Hollday is more of a hitter than a power hitter.
I would let Matsui walk and sign Damon a 2year deal.Then try to trade for Granderson(who can replace matsui’s power)and sign lackey to improve the rotation.
Melky can then play some RF and LF so Damon and Swisher can both DH from time to time
Mark in Tampa
November 24th, 2009 at 10:22 am
A couple of observations:
-Going into the season with Andy, Joba, and Phil 3-5 is asking for trouble.
-Trading for a frontline pitcher that would really improve the team would be very costly in terms of dollars and/or players, therefore unlikely.
-I don’t like Lackey as a short or long term fix.
-Many of the other possibilities-Randy Wolf, etc, I wouldn’t trust to beat the Royals or Orioles, let alone the real teams.
-I think the best bet may be to re-sign Pettitte, bring in Sheets on an incentive deal in case Hughes or Joba can’t get it done. Find a way to retain Wang, he could be a contributor from August on.
-Sign Chapman to be Andy’s replacement in 2010 or 2011.
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I agree that you can’t go into the season with Hughes and Joba in the rotation – especially when you consider that Hughes will have the same innings’ restrictions that Joba had this year.
I also agree that trading for a pitcher would be problematic – the Yankees are either going to have to give up a ton of prospects for a frontline starter (Josh Johnson) or absorb a lot of money for a backend starter (Bronson Arroyo/Kevin Millwood) – now if you could get one of those guys in a package with a solid player (Jay Bruce or Josh Hamilton) well that’s another story entirely.
I don’t see the Yankees giving Lackey the kind of contract he’s going to be looking for.
I’m with you on signing a Sheets or that type of pitcher
I’m also with you on signing Chapman as a project – in fact – signing a pitcher like Chapman could free up Cashman to deal a Dellin Betances or Andrew Brackman for a player who could help the team.
“-Sign Chapman to be Andy’s replacement in 2010 or 2011″
I meant 2011 or 2012!
“Gomez wasn’t released. He was traded to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy.”
He probably should have been released, for what his value is. I was only joking, anyway.
“I would let Matsui walk and sign Damon a 2year deal.”
You would sign Damon for 2, but Boras won’t. He is going to hold Damon out for as long as possible to get 3 or 4 years. Only when he realizes that is impossible, will he come off of that.
Chip,
I think they can go with Joba and Phil in the rotation, but there has to be a backup plan. Randy had been on Cashman, I think a bit unfairly, for not having a backup plan in the past. But I think this year, there are some options like Sheets and Harden, as well as Wang, to be legit starting options if Joba or Phil can’t handle their roles.
Austinmac -
Holliday isn’t a #2 hitter.
Part of the reason Tex had such a great year was that Jeter and Damon were both setting the table for him and both had speed at the top of the lineup.
I would much rather have a Randy Winn in the 2 spot (switch hitter, decent speed, good OBP guy, good situational hitter).
That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t also want Holliday in the 5 spot in the order – in fact I have no problem with bringing in Winn to DH and playing Holliday in LF, or even asking Holliday to move to RF and DH Swisher.
CF should be an open tryout between Melky, Gardner, and Jackson.
marl, hopefully damon realizes this is how it is and tells boras to take the abreu like deal cash will probably offer him. damon has to know the chances he gets 3-4 years now are non-existant at least not on a contender.
Chip and others
You need to remember that Halladay has a complete no trade clause so Toronto may not have a choice where to trade him. The Yanks are in a position of great strength and a package of Gaudin, McAllister and Romine might be as much as they can get for one year of Doc.
You also don’t know if Halladay will demand an extension or refuse an extension so he can explore free agency.
Grienke had a great year, but he has not done nearly enough to warrant a spot on the top tier of pitchers.
I’m okay with signing one reclamation project guy, but you can’t count on him. If Pettite retires signing Lackey or trading for Halladay is a must as far as I’m concerned.
I’d like to see the yanks re-sign pettite and either trade for halladay or sign sheets if halladay costs too much.
They need an innings eater and Halladay and Sheets (baring injury) both qualify as that. Pettitte,Joba, and Hughes are not going to consistently go deep into games and AJ gets knocked out of a lot of games early. Really CC is the only guy who consistently goes deep. The Yankees were able to rest their pen last year because they had a big lead but you can’t assume that will happen again.
If they choose to not pursue Halladay then I’d rather sign sheets than Lackey because I think he will be a significantly less committment and if he’s healthy I think he’s better than lackey
Mark -
I will be furious if Cashman and Girardi handle Hughes the same way they handled Joba.
Hughes should start the season in AAA where they can control his innings without impacting games that matter and then second half of the season he can come up and throw with no restrictions (the way Tampa did with David Price)
To do that though you need to have someone in the rotation to go with Joba and Andy – personally I fear that someone might be Ian Kennedy.
I’m also not buying that Wang is going to be ready in April. The surgery he had takes a year to 18 mos to recover – he’s going to be ML ready in 9 mos? I think that’s his agent hoping to get the Yankees to tender him a deal or get some other team to give him a major league contract if they make him a free agent.
Joba was not great, or what we expected last year, by any stretch of the imagination. But he was not so bad that he should be totally discounted as pitcher.
Joba gave up 10 more hits than innings pitched last season. However, from August through the end of the year, when the Yanks were going through the 2 inning start nonsense, he gave up 17 more hits than innings. So, as a legit starter, he was at 7 fewer hits gieven up than IP. That is not too bad. He shouldn’t have innings limits this year.
He does need to improve his command and aggressiveness, and be in better physical shape, no doubt. He needs to regain his FB velocity and the sharpness on his slider. But he should be a solid AL 4th sarter this year.
The one I worry about abit this year is Hughes. He will b dealingwith the same messing around that Joba went through last year. I hope he can handle it better.
Sorry about the spelling errors, I needed to change the batteries in my wireless keyboard.
GB7,
Maybe that’s your spelling problem!
i believe cash and girardi will not mess with hughes like they did with joba. they tried something, it clearly was not the right thing to do, and they will learn from it. i am 100% confident with Cashman running the show that he knows what’s best and if he doesn’t, he learns from his mistakes.
Hughes will more likely get the porcello treatment next summer and get a month off around the ASB to conserve innings and rest his arm for the home stretch to #28.
Here’s an RAB article on Damon:
http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....cut-20424/
LOL at “As the Johnny Damon Turns”.
You need to remember that Halladay has a complete no trade clause so Toronto may not have a choice where to trade him.
And what makes you think he would accept a trade to NY?
The Yanks are in a position of great strength and a package of Gaudin, McAllister and Romine might be as much as they can get for one year of Doc.
If that’s the best that Toronto can get for Doc then they would be better off holding onto him for the season and taking whatever draft pick compensation they can get for him as a free agent. That’s where Bill Smith of the Twins blew it, not in overplaying his hand for Johan but for then letting him go for garbage rather than holding onto Santana for one more year and just seeing what draft picks they would get for him.
Murphydog, I disagree. First of all, my complaints about Pete have nothing to do with the fact that he didn’t/doesn’t throw hosannahs the Yankees way anymore….and I didn’t care that he wasn’t “rooting” for the team. Why would I care about that? My problems have to do with the fact that he is two-faced “reporter” who caters to his audience like a sleazy reporter from the National Enquirer. He has no convictions whatsoever. Whatever he said here, he said it because he was dealing with Yankee fans. Now that he’s dealing with Sox fans, he’s saying different things. That is not respectable reporting, IMO – that’s pandering. Saying rude things about Yankee fans to Sox fans who he knows will eat that kind of thing up is low-brow, especially when he spent years building a decent relationship with Yankee fans on his blog. This blog moved on without him – he was not the only one capable of getting good information on the Yankees. I never visit is blog, I don’t care what he says. However, people apparently do and they keep posting it here….so, I’m going to react.
But he was not so bad that he should be totally discounted as pitcher
I’m not discounting him as a pitcher – and I still think he should be a starter this year. However, there’s no arguing that he has looked a lot more confident, a lot more effective, and a lot more valuable as a relief pitcher (both when he first came up and in these most recent playoffs) than at any point as a starter. Now maybe that changes with the diapers coming off him this year, but if not then I think he needs to be moved back to the pen.
Andy, Joba, Hughes as 3-5 is asking for trouble?
Exactly why? You can’t baby these guys forever. Run with them (Joba 34 starts, Hughes 16-20) and see what you get. It’s time to put up or shut up.
In backup you have Aceves and Gaudin. Not superstars, to be sure, but servicable #5 starters. Please, O please, delete Mitre–he is at best a #5 in the NL, unless there is something they see that we don’t.
After Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, not to say Javy Vaquez, shouldn’t the Yankees be done with NL reclamation projects?
A large number of you are completely insane.
There’s really no other way to describe these posts.
Do you guys have any idea how much money the Yankees have tied up for the next 3,4,5 years? Do you understand that last year was the exception, not the rule regarding major moves?
Let me make this real simple…. The Yankees have CC tied up for another 6 years at 23 million and AJ for another 4 years at 16.5 million. AJ is 33 and CC is 29. These deals tie up CC until he’s 35 and AJ until he’s 37. They aren’t giving Lackey 5 years, trading for Halladay and giving him another 5 years, or any other type of deal like that. Its just not happening. Pettitte is the priciest starter they’re going to go after.
Even if Pettitte retires I think they’ll go a different route like a trade for Josh Johnson. They aren’t having 3 huge long-term contracts for starting pitchers. All those fearful of a back end rotation of Joba and Hughes… well we won 103 games with the likes of Mitre and Gaudin starting regylarly in the 2nd half. We alo won with Joba slumping badly at the end and Wang out for the year (and getting torched before his injury).
As for the lineup…. Alex for 9 more years, Tex for 7 more years, Jeter for as long as he still wants to play, Cano (who some of you geniuses want to trade) signed for 2 more years with 2 options after that. And that’s just the infield. There is huge money tied up long term.
In my opinion Damon for 2 years and 24 million is too much. I’d pass. I wouldn’t sign Bay or Holliday unless the price dropped dramatically and the Yanks could get in at the last minute.
I would bring back Matsui if he’s accept a one year deal for around 8-9 million. I would offer Damon slightly more per year and go up to 2 years.
Tell them both to take it or leave it. They’re both declining hitters who can’t play the field. These guys are a dime a dozen on the free agent market and can be easily (and cheaply) replaced.
I really think people are overestimating the Doc/AJ relationship. What’s Doc going to do, pitch for AJ? AJ is fine – ok, people don’t like the way he gets things done, so be it. For most of the year, he pitched to a very fine ERA…had a lousy August which trashed his numbers. He absolutely gave us innings when we needed him – I think he pitched the most innings this year in his career – and he definitely came up big when we needed him in the early part of the season (forgetting even June and July). He himself thinks he had a sub-par year, so maybe he will work on fixing the things that went wrong…..but there’s nothing wrong with the man.
“If he pulls a “Shaq” and all of a sudden decides he needs the surgery right before ST, he is going to lose a lot of the goodwill he built up this season.”
If the organization doesn’t require him to have a significant exit physical including follow up with Dr. Philippon, any surprises are as much the teams fault than the players. Maybe even moreso.
Guys enough about Damon, if he wants more then a year and a team option we will go and trade for david Dejesus from the royals. its been well know cashmen has always wanted that player for a while. He will be our #2 hitter unless cano is ready for that spot
Patrick, it’s pretty clear from Cashman that the Yankees are going to try and improve their pitching and it doesn’t just involve re-signing Andy. Re-signing him doesn’t improve the staff – it means it’s the same.
Betsy – high on pie
November 24th, 2009 at 8:16 am
Pat M, not only that, but talking down to Yankee fans? The same fans he used to blog to and converse with? One day if he ever leaves the Sox, he will talk down to Sox fans as well. Slimy.
–
Betsy, he will not insult Red Sox fans if he leaves. He has too much respect for them.
As some have pointed out, he forgot where he came from. I beg to differ. He used the Journal News and coverage of the world’s greatest team to further his career, all the while, remembering his roots of Boston.
If you look on his site, which I occasionally do, he does not belittle posters for ridiculous trade proposals of Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Ryan Westmoreland for Felix Hernandez, as he did on a daily basis here.
Betsy you’re right AJ is fine.
Anyone being paid 16.5 million a year doesn’t need another pitcher there to hold his hand.
Issues with his pitching should be handled by Eiland, that’s why they pay him.
Fangraphs NL ranking by WAR
1. Pujols 8.4
2. Lincecum 8.2
3. Utley 7.6
4. H. Ramirez 7.3
5. Zimmerman 7.1
6. Fielder 6.8
7. Vazquez 6.6
8. Gonzalez 6.3
9. Haren 6.1
10. Wainright 5.7
10. Jimenez 5.7
Cash has already stated that Phil will not have severe innings limitations….
Miggs
My thoughts exactly.
Some people can’t get out of the mid-2000’s Yankees freespending on anyone and anything mindset.
Thankfully Cashman and Hal apparently have a process in place that avoids that.
Mark in Tampa
November 24th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Sorry about the spelling errors, I needed to change the batteries in my wireless keyboard.
GB7,
Maybe that’s your spelling problem!
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Damned. I was thinking about that, until you put it on the board. Now, everyone will know where I got the idea. I’m better off just letting them know that the twins and my dog just aren’t that smart.
Chip, I know Holliday hasn’t batted second, but I don’t know why he couldn’t. He makes contact, has a good OBP and hits 20+ HRs so not all that dissimilar from Damon.
I agree he could also hit fifth if a two hole hitter is acquired.
I really think people are overestimating the Doc/AJ relationship.
I remember after the 2004 season when Millar, Damon and Mueller were all free agents and Kevin Millar said that because the three of them were such good friends they should tell teams that if you want one, you have to sign all three – Damon’s response was classic, “Um, no. But I’ll still take Kev out to dinner when he’s in town.”
Being buddies with a guy on another team doesn’t mean you’re automatically going to go to that team. CC Sabathia’s two best friends were Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez and as a free agent he didn’t take less to go to Cleveland did he?
Again, Toronto will either get a haul for Halladay or they’ll let him walk as a free agent – but the idea that they’re going to give Roy to the Yankees for chum because he wants to pitch with his buddy AJ is lunacy.
I wouldn’t give up Hughes or Joba for Halladay if he’s not going to sign an extension. And while Halladay is very good now, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and I’d be against a deal for more than 3 years.
Some people can’t get out of the mid-2000’s Yankees freespending on anyone and anything mindset.
Gee – could it be that signing the top three free agents available last season had something to do with that?
1. Pujols 8.4
2. Lincecum 8.2
3. Utley 7.6
4. H. Ramirez 7.3
5. Zimmerman 7.1
6. Fielder 6.8
7. Vazquez 6.6
8. Gonzalez 6.3
9. Haren 6.1
10. Wainright 5.7
10. Jimenez 5.7
This would seem to suggest the two guys who named Haren and Vazquez on their NL Cy ballot rather than Carpenter weren’t at all out of line.
NY
November 24th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Guys enough about Damon, if he wants more then a year and a team option we will go and trade for david Dejesus from the royals. its been well know cashmen has always wanted that player for a while. He will be our #2 hitter unless cano is ready for that spot
——————————————————–
cashman also coveted wilson betemit for 2 years before he traded for him – how did that work out?
CC tied up for another 6 years at 23 million
actually he’s tied up for another 2 seasons at 23 mil and then if the Yankees still want him they’re going to have to cough up more than that – he’s got an opt out and if you don’t think he’s going to use it you’re nutty.
cashman also coveted wilson betemit for 2 years before he traded for him – how did that work out?
David DeJesus in LF batting 2nd will work out just fine.
NY
November 24th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Guys enough about Damon, if he wants more then a year and a team option we will go and trade for david Dejesus from the royals. its been well know cashmen has always wanted that player for a while. He will be our #2 hitter unless cano is ready for that spot
————————————————————
How long has it been well known that Cashman has always wanted Dejesus? From what I can tell, about 3 people know about his infatuation.
Hallady is 33 NOT 93.
How old was Clemens when we signed him 36. How old was Cone, Wells, El Doque , Key ????
If Toronto wants either Joba or Hughes . Fine. Let either one rot up in Canada. you have to give up something to get something.
Yanks will get more bang for their buck with next years free agent class which should be exciting. So maybe Cash makes a trade for a quality starter or signs 1 big new guy in Lackey. Anyway I am excited that he said he plans to focus on the rotation first. I just would hate to trade Joba or Hughes to Toronto and then they turn out to be great & we face them for 10 more years.
If I’m Cash and Hal, I play Halliday just like CC.
Wait until about a year from now, and sign him for Pettite money (as the Pettite replacement) plus $7 million (maybe AAV $18-19 million) x 4-5 years.
It all depends on the market at that point (I think Josh Beckett will be on the market as well, as will some others). If someone signs him to an extension after a trade in 2010, so be it–wish him well and move on.
To those who talk about the AJ angle, it is only a potential chip to have Halliday consider free agency in 2011. Nothing more.
Yankees need to consider what to do with Jeter and Mo after 2010 as well. Clearly, they are both here for however longer they wish to play–but interestingly, that adds nothing to the payroll, since they are already factored in. But that discussion is for another time.
David DeJesus in LF batting 2nd will work out just fine.
—————————————————-
for the SWB Yankees…
actually he’s tied up for another 2 seasons at 23 mil and then if the Yankees still want him they’re going to have to cough up more than that – he’s got an opt out and if you don’t think he’s going to use it you’re nutty.
___
CC is not repped by boras. he will not opt out and no one will pay more than the yankees.
Miggs makes several good points. Finally someone is looking at the numbers. If you were to prepare a spreadsheet of the salaries in ‘09 the Yankees spent somewhere in the region of $209 million. If you resigned Andy at $10 million AND DIDN’T ADD ANOTHER STARTER, gave everyone raises who was arbitration eligible, gave Damon $10 million, AND resigned Nady for $5 million as a baseline salary, and didn’t resign Matsui, you’d already be up to roughly $195 million.
And that’s beore you consider adding the likes of a Lackey @ $15 million+ or Halladay. Now a Sheets, a Wang or a Mike Gonzalez could be less (that sounds strange, but whatever), but you’d only add any of those guys if you replace others, but you’re not replacing like salaries. Point is, if the team is set on reducing salaries, it doesn’t appear that any big names will be added.
Based on my projections, team salaries could go down to about $195 million for 2010 and maybe 2011, but can be possibly down to $170-175 million in 2012 freeing up the possiblity for a major signing then.
there should be a rule here on suggesting potential trades:
if you include anyone named gaudin, mitre, albaladejo or ramirez in your trade, then you may as well not suggest it at all..
“I’m better off just letting them know that the twins and my dog just aren’t that smart.”
I think we can say with confidence now that my dog Yaz is smarter!!
Good morning GB. Have you looked lately in your crystal ball?
Just wondering whether you think your Yankees will go for Lackey or make a deal with Toronto for Holliday. There are some reports that Chapman (the Cuban young pitcher) may end up with Boston but I am sure it is just speculation.
I think you guys sign one of the two between Damon and Matsui but not both, but obviously I could be very wrong.
Chip you have no clue what you’re talking about.
CC is making 23 million a year and he loves it here.
He has stated on the record that he’s not opting out, and if I believe anyone at their word its him.
Also genius, how much do you think he’s going to get if he opts out in 2 years at the age of 30?
If anything, salaries will be less than they are now. And you think he’s going to get more than 23 million a year? You’re a fool.
His ONLY advantage to opt out would be to (maybe) tack on a year or 2 to the deal and he’ll risk a lower per year salary.
Its not happening. Good try, though. I’m sure you worked on that theory for awhile.
Halladay has an NTC. He’s running this show not the Blue Jays.
I meant to say Halladay and not Holliday in my above post.
Chip
Don’t get too shortsighted here.
CC was always part of the plan. Tex was a perfect fit, and wanted the Yankees from day one (remember he grew up with a Mattingly poster over his bed).
AJ was the extra piece, and in this case they’re the Yankees, and it worked out, didn’t it?
Last offseason was the exception, not the rule.
To expect them to go after every free agent just because they can every year is lunacy, especially when it is unclear 50-60% of the time whether the player can handle NY and the AL East.
CC is not opting out. Who is going to pay him more than $22-23 million per year in this enivronment? I think that was out into his contract to give him an out if he did not like NY. Do you think he and his family like NY?
“he’s got an opt out and if you don’t think he’s going to use it you’re nutty.”
Depends on the economics of the day. If he were to opt out today, nobody is paying him more than he’s getting right now.
ray (sox fan)
November 24th, 2009 at 11:22 am
“I’m better off just letting them know that the twins and my dog just aren’t that smart.”
I think we can say with confidence now that my dog Yaz is smarter!!
Good morning GB. Have you looked lately in your crystal ball?
Just wondering whether you think your Yankees will go for Lackey or make a deal with Toronto for Holliday. There are some reports that Chapman (the Cuban young pitcher) may end up with Boston but I am sure it is just speculation.
I think you guys sign one of the two between Damon and Matsui but not both, but obviously I could be very wrong.
————————————————————
Morning, Ray. Hope all is well with the (sox fan) faily.
As far as “Yaz” being smart, he couldn’t find a tree in a forest.
guys
is cm wang totally out of the equation????
dont you guys think he can come back at a reasonabky level?
CC is not repped by boras. he will not opt out and no one will pay more than the yankees.
His rep is not the concern here, nor is it a question of him getting paid more.
Logic dictates that he opts out. He’s going to get a better contract offer as a 31 year old than he will if he rides out this current deal.
Think about it this way – he signed a 7 year deal last season – if he opts out after the 2011 season and signs another 7 year contract for the exact same money (not a stretch barring any significant injury) then he will have essentially gotten a 10 year deal.
“Hallady is 33 NOT 93.
How old was Clemens when we signed him 36. How old was Cone, Wells, El Doque , Key ????
If Toronto wants either Joba or Hughes . Fine. Let either one rot up in Canada. you have to give up something to get something.”
Again, I’m sure you thought long and hard about this post before you typed it. Unfortunately for you, the holes it your theory are bigger than the gaps Chris Johnson had to run through last night.
Its not just his age. Its the LENGTH of the deal in addition to the lengths of the deals already on the books.
And its the young cost controlled talent you’re giving up.
I just went back and checked. at NO TIME was Clemens, Wells, Cone ,or Key signed to any deal longer than 3 years while they were wearing pinstripes. And never at the same time were their deals in place with long term future commitments. El Duque was given 4 years when they first brought him over, but that was before most of the other names got there.
I know some of you have very simple minds that can only handle basic information. Luckily the Yankee front office is slightly more sophisticated in their thinking.
Chip, that in effect is an extension. It’s his right to do that, but depending on the economics of the world at the time, we’ll see if that’s the case. Right now, my gut tells me it won’t happen. But hey, you never know. Worry about that when/if it does.
Think about the team for 2010 in the interim.
Miggs, be nice.
Last offseason was the exception, not the rule.
I agree with that – but my point is just that you can’t fault Yankee fans for thinking “well we got Tex, AJ and CC last year why not get Halladay and Holliday this year?”
And heck – I think next year could be another big spending winter if the free agent pool remains as it is and the Yankees decide to go after Cliff Lee, Joe Mauer and Carl Crawford.
The bottom line is that the Yankees don’t want to spend a huge amount of money (Cashman as much as said so) but if the players were there they have the ability to spend what it takes to get the job done.
DaSaint I get frustrated.
I know you udnerstand my thinking on the Yankees front office plans, payroll, and basic economics. Sadly, very few others do.
A couple of things. (I was out Thanksgiving shopping and just came in and got caught up.)
First, I do not advocate getting Halladay unless it’s one of those how could you not type deals where they Yankees don’t have to give up anyone immediately signficant (not gonna happen imo).
I do think it’s a situation that has to be addressed that the number 3, 4 and 5 guys in the rotation are not “innings eaters.” Sure, Pettitte did a really good job of going into the 7th this past season. I wouldn’t count on that going forward. In 2008, he couldn’t do it, pitching through a mildly injured arm. You really don’t know with any one of those three (Hughes, Joba, Andy) what you’re going to get. If they don’t sign another “big” pitcher, they need to have a plan.
Chapman in 2011? That’s a HUGE question mark. No one knows what he really has in terms of MLB ability. He could be 2 or 3 years away from being helpful.
Sheets? Wang? Both of them are big question marks, too. Coming off of surgery and rehab. You can’t count on them for depth at all. They can be very, very low on a depth chart, perhaps, but not anywhere near being counted on to help.
I’ll be the first to admit I have no idea what the Yankees should do or who they should sign, if anyone. I don’t know enough about any of the potential candidates. But I do know Hughes will have some kind of an innings limit, so even if he is physically able and pitching well enough to go 7 full innings every time out, they probably are not going to do that. Joba? Who the heck knows? (They’re still squabbling on XM this morning that Joba needs to be in the pen and that at this point he is probably a bargaining chip for the Yankees and the Yankees had no idea what they were doing, blah, blah, blah. Sigh.) Wang may not even be under contract to the Yankees, and his arm health going forward is a huge question mark. And Andy is one year old. He is coming off a fantastic season, but I don’t count on a recurrence of that. I’d settle for 6 innings from him each start – I’d plan on that, that is.
And financials are an issue for the Yankees. So, even though this is not as big a season for the Yankees in terms of “fixing” their team for next year, it’s a tricky one.
Ray, I wouldn’t even guess as to who NYY might trade for or sign. Unless NYY could get Halladay for below market value, I don’t see NYY getting him. Cashman isn’t likely to overpay for him. I think he’d be more likely to pay cash for a pitcher. It might be Lackey or one of the two main reclaimation projects. I think Pettitte comes back, though.
I’d think that the left field position is between Holliday and Damon. I don’t think Bay is an option, mainly because of the big left field at YS.
Sounds like plenty of people in Boston are unhappy with Chapman for dumping his Boston based agent. No reason was given that I’ve heard other than his agent may have been trying to steer him towards Boston over other teams.
What are you hearing about Boston’s needs? I hear that they are trying to buy a WS title.
Miggs. save the educated talk for your Princeton buddies.
The bottom line is Years and Money means nothing when your signing an Ace like Halliday.
Sure he won’t be an Ace by the time the contract expires. But we’ll worry about that when we cross that bridge.
And i don’t care if Huges and Joba are cost controlled pitchers . Does that equate Championships in the future. Both are unproven and big time question marks.. Getting rid of one of them isn’t going to kill the Yanks.
Hallady gives them a better shot at repeating !
“86w183 November 24th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Interesting comparison of three pitchers and the length they give you… this past season.
Andy Pettite 32 starts 7+ innings 10X
John Lackey 27 starts 7+ innings 17X
Doc Halladay 32 starts 7+ innings 27X
That’s extremely significant. I think I really want Doc. He’s just an absolute horse. He’ll make AJ better and make life easier for the bullpen. ”
Considering that Andy is the team’s number 3 pitcher and Lackey and Halladay are their teams respective number 1’s your argument is a bit flawed.
Also, saying Halladay will make AJ better is just silly talk.
Worry about that when/if it does.
I’m not particularly worried about it at all – if the Yankees have to give him another 7 year deal at age 31 I’m pretty sure they’ll do it. But the issue is that every move Cashman makes isn’t just about this coming season, it’s about two or three years down the line – such as not dealing for Johan Santana and having a better team in 2008 when he could hold his assets and protect the long term future.
So with that in mind – if you’re Cashman and you know that in two years your top starter can become a free agent do you make moves today to protect against that happening? Do you sign an Aroldis Chapman or make a deal for a young frontline starter like Josh Johnson?
Oh! And Chapman may not be a Yankees, either. There’s always that.
Miggs sounds like your the Yankees accountant ?? I agree with Steve. In the short term Halladay gives the Yankees the best shot at repeating.
FWIW,
All the Pete stuff was from Twitter, not the newspaper. If you wanted to read them, you’d have to have a Twitter account and then either be “following” Pete, or do a search for him.
And he actually wasn’t the one complaining about the Jeter E-mails.
That was Mark Feinsand(NY Daily News) and Pete sent a response.
I don’t want to seem like Pete’s big defender but it’s not as if his opinions about Yankee fans are making it to the back page of the Boston Globe.
I think the one thing you have to consider is that the free agent markets in 2010 and 2011 are much better than they are this season.
Teams shouldn’t make a move because they feel like they have to; they should make a move if they can objectively state it will help their team.
The cost of a free agent for the Yankees, no matter how big the contract, will almost always be less than the cost of a high priced trade.
Me? I’ll pass on Halladay and gun for Felix in 2011. Pipe dream, sure, but I’m a fan, I’m allowed to dream.
While having top-tier starting pitching talent is always desired, it has become very expensive. All top-tier talent costs greater than $15-$20 million per player, per season. If you had three of those at the top of your rotation, that would be $45 to $60 million for those 3 alone, and each would command 5 or more years on their contract. Thats a lot of years and a lot of money.
That’s the reason for developing starting talent. Players like Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy have the Potential, with a capital P, to be excellent front-line pitchers (defined as #2 or #3 caliber), while being under team control (pronounced cheap) for up to 5-7 years. Think about it, Chien-Ming Wang won 19 games TWICE, and pitched parts of 2 other seasons, all for virtually nothing, in comparison to even an Andy Pettitte salary.
In today’s economy – which, face it, is a reality – value has value all in itself. Not saying that you don’t ever get a high priced player anymore, but you’re already paying $49.5 million for CC and AJ alone in 2010 – before making an offer of at least $10 million to Andy! Now you want to add a minimum of $16 million more for Lackey? I just don’t see it happening, unless Andy retires.
And that’s all before addressing other needs. The game has changed. It’s the economy, and the Yankees can still take advantage of it, and they will, but not by using the same approach as last year.
I wouldn’t mind DeJesus in LF at all. He rates well in UZR in LF every season (not just sample size fluctuation) and as a result, he values higher than Johnny Damon. Damon is the far superior hitter, but perhaps DeJesus as a lefty in the new stadium, he can improve his pop.
Here are how the two have rated in WAR and in salary
Damon
2005: 2.2, worth $7.4 mililon, paid $8.3 million
2006: 2.8, worth $10.8 million, paid $13.0 million
2007: 2.3, worth $9.3 million, paid $13.0 million
2008: 3.6, worth $16.4 million, paid $13.0 million
2009: 3.0, worth $13.6 million, paid $13.0 million
DeJesus
2005: 4.2, worth $14.4 mililon, paid $0.3 million
2006: 3.8, worth $14.5 million, paid $0.5 million
2007: 2.7, worth $11.2 million, paid $2.0 million
2008: 2.7, worth $12.2 million, paid $2.5 million
2009: 3.2, worth $14.6 million, paid $3.6 million
DeJesus’s fielding splits in games LF/CF/RF
2005: 0/119/0
2006: 73/61/0
2007: 0/156/0
2008: 71/68/24
2009: 139/3/2
Over the past two seasons combined, only Crawford had a better UZR than DeJesus. It was by a significant margin, just as was the gap between DeJesus and #3 on the list. Yet, DeJesus only played 1/2 of a season in LF in 2008… a very impressive statistic for something that is a counting statistic.
In fact, over the last three seasons combined, only Crawford and Holliday have better UZRs than DeJesus and DeJesus didn’t start a single game in LF in 2008.
DD will be 30 next month. That’s far superior to a 36 year-old Damon.
DeJesus is set to make only $4.6 million next season and would pay off for the Yankees.
I would be for resigning Matsui as a DH, putting Gardner in CF and putting David DeJesus in LF. Sure, we would lose some offense in the downgrade from Damon to DeJesus, but the team would improve dramatically in defense which has ancillary benefits to the pitching staff and the bullpen.
In the short term Halladay gives the Yankees the best shot at repeating.
When was the last time Brian Cashman did anything that gave you the impression he was primarily concerned with the “short term?”
One of the best (and yet most frustrating) parts of having Brian Cashman as the GM is that despite the pressure of New York, the demands of the media, the fans, the owner (George and Hank more than Hal) is that he almost never gives into short term fixes.
The last time he picked a short term fix over a long term solution was when he traded for Randy Johnson rather than signing Carlos Beltran. It’s not a mistake he’s likely to repeat.
Doreen -
As for Chapman – I think there is one thing that helps with the odds of him being a Yankee. He’s going to cost a lot of money and still needs time in the minors – there aren’t that many teams in baseball who can invest 7-10 mil/year in a pitcher and then stash him in AA or AAA for a year until he’s ready to pitch in the show.
“miggs – GTLU Reigning Champion November 24th, 2009 at 10:58 am
A large number of you are completely insane.
There’s really no other way to describe these posts.
Do you guys have any idea how much money the Yankees have tied up for the next 3,4,5 years? Do you understand that last year was the exception, not the rule regarding major moves?
Let me make this real simple…. The Yankees have CC tied up for another 6 years at 23 million and AJ for another 4 years at 16.5 million. AJ is 33 and CC is 29. These deals tie up CC until he’s 35 and AJ until he’s 37. They aren’t giving Lackey 5 years, trading for Halladay and giving him another 5 years, or any other type of deal like that. Its just not happening. Pettitte is the priciest starter they’re going to go after.
Even if Pettitte retires I think they’ll go a different route like a trade for Josh Johnson. They aren’t having 3 huge long-term contracts for starting pitchers. All those fearful of a back end rotation of Joba and Hughes… well we won 103 games with the likes of Mitre and Gaudin starting regylarly in the 2nd half. We alo won with Joba slumping badly at the end and Wang out for the year (and getting torched before his injury).
As for the lineup…. Alex for 9 more years, Tex for 7 more years, Jeter for as long as he still wants to play, Cano (who some of you geniuses want to trade) signed for 2 more years with 2 options after that. And that’s just the infield. There is huge money tied up long term.
In my opinion Damon for 2 years and 24 million is too much. I’d pass. I wouldn’t sign Bay or Holliday unless the price dropped dramatically and the Yanks could get in at the last minute.
I would bring back Matsui if he’s accept a one year deal for around 8-9 million. I would offer Damon slightly more per year and go up to 2 years.
Tell them both to take it or leave it. They’re both declining hitters who can’t play the field. These guys are a dime a dozen on the free agent market and can be easily (and cheaply) replaced.”
This.
“I think the one thing you have to consider is that the free agent markets in 2010 and 2011 are much better than they are this season.”
Other thing to consider is in one of those years an extension for Jeter and Mo may be in order. That’s probably not a long term commitment, but it’s probably a $30M per year one.
Chip— Randy was 40 something !.. Halladay is 33. The short term means 3 to 4 years of Halladays serivce
“I’ll be the first to admit I have no idea what the Yankees should do or who they should sign”
I’ll be second then. Without knowing ownership guidelines and internal scouting evaluations, no one has a clue what they really need or what they are going to do.
Miggs —
Ease up on the pomposity for cryin’ out loud. If Pettite retires there’s every reason to believe the Yanks will make a major acquisition for the rotation. It’s also not out of the question they choose to spend more on the rotation and save money in the OF/DH situation. They have almost $ 50 Million coming off the books. It’s bound to get spent somehow.
Raymagnetic —
What the hell difference does the # mean by a starter? The point of the stats was to show that both Lackey and Halladay give better promise for innings, that’s all. Halladay is better than Lackey who is better than Pettite. Thus a change makes the rotation better and younger, though not cheaper.
AJ had his three best consecutive seasons of his career with Halladay as a teammate and he credits Doc with helping him learn and mature and yet it’s silly to think teaming them up again would help him? Why?
Randy was 40 something !.. Halladay is 33. The short term means 3 to 4 years of Halladays serivce
Mike – I’m just saying it isn’t in Cashman’s make up to make this deal.
He could have made a similar trade for Johan Santana two years ago. That rotation was screaming for an ACE to pitch in front of Moose and Wang (remember Moose was coming off an awful 07 season). He could have added Johan and almost assured the 2008 Yankees of a post season birth. Instead he passed, went with Hughes and Kennedy who were awful/injured in the back of the rotation and the Yankees missed the playoffs.
Now that he’s got CC and AJ and is coming off a World Series you think the odds are greater that he makes that kind of deal?
It just doesn’t make any sense at all.
You guys have to look deeper into the numbers before writing this nonsense.
On the surface you’ll say “Wow we have almost 40 million coming off the books after 2010! Let’s sign some guys now!”
The only problem with that theory is that 36 million of that money coming off the books next year is Jeter and Mo, 2 guys that almost assuredly will be retained.
So you figure maybe you get Mo at 10/year and Jeter at around 15/year, and that’s IF you can get them both to return for significant paycuts. Even then, you’re only slicing 10 million off the books before figuring in arbitration raises and other escalating contracts.
Trust me, barring a major surprise or a trade where the Yankees shed some payroll ( not likely) there aren’t going to be any blockbuster additions for the next 2 years.
I know that’s going to get a lot of you kicking and stomping your feet but those are the facts. Unless the team decides to add more payroll, which is contrary to everything I’ve heard, there won’t be any blockbuster moves (besides retaining our own players) until after the 2011 season.
“I’ll be the first to admit I have no idea what the Yankees should do or who they should sign”
About the smartest thing anybody said today.
Some thoughts from Peter Gammons:
============================================
The Yankees are planning to go to spring training with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain being programmed to start. “They can always go from starting to the bullpen, but it’s tough going the other way,” says Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.
Cashman feels David Robertson and Damaso Marte can pitch the seventh and eighth innings in front of Mariano Rivera, but a Yankee run at Lackey, Ben Sheets or another starter hasn’t been ruled out. The feeling inside the Yankees’ offices is that there will be some payroll cutback, but how much is not known.
Yes, I had Derek Jeter second on my AL MVP ballot behind Joe Mauer, because in a year when the Yankees played at a breakneck pace, Jeter was the man who drove the train. One thing many learned during the World Series is that Derek Jeter and Chase Utley might as well be the same person. They just won’t talk in the first-person pronoun enough for most people to realize it.
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....mons_peter
ISTM that Halliday has the leverage over the Blue Jays, because of his No Trade clause. So, money is more important than traded players.
E.g., suppose the Yanks negotiate a lucrative extension with Halliday, say 6 years at $150 million. Then suppose they offer just Joba as a trade. If Halliday tells the Jays he will reject a trade to any team but the Yanks, the Jays would pretty much have to agree to the offer. Otherwise Halliday will walk at the end of the season, and they’ll get nothing (except a draft choice).
“If Halliday tells the Jays he will reject a trade to any team but the Yanks, the Jays would pretty much have to agree to the offer”
Halladay isn’t going to do that though.
anybody able to find the dvd today? can’t seem to find it in any stores and don’t really want to order it online.
“Raymagnetic —
What the hell difference does the # mean by a starter? The point of the stats was to show that both Lackey and Halladay give better promise for innings, that’s all. Halladay is better than Lackey who is better than Pettite. Thus a change makes the rotation better and younger, though not cheaper.
AJ had his three best consecutive seasons of his career with Halladay as a teammate and he credits Doc with helping him learn and mature and yet it’s silly to think teaming them up again would help him? Why?”
If all things were equal when it comes to Lackey, Halladay, and Pettitte then you have a point.
However all things are not equal. Pettitte pitches in the 3 spot and will require ONLY a 1 year contract. Not to mention the fact that Halladay will require the Yankees to trade people as well.
As for AJ, in 2005 he pitched 209 innings for Florida and had an ERA+ of 115
In 2006 his first with his pitching guru Halladay(apparently) he pitched 135 innings the next year he pitched 165 innings. Wasn’t until his last year (when he had an opt out) he pitched 221 innings again.
Not sure how his 3 years with Toronto were his 3 best years by any stretch of the imagination.
The fact of the matter is AJ is going to be who he is regardless of if Halladay is he teammate or not.
“The feeling inside the Yankees’ offices is that there will be some payroll cutback, but how much is not known.”
I don’t put much stock into what Gammons has to say about the inner workings of the Yankee front office. With that said, I hope ownership doesn’t get too conservative with the spending as they hosted seven playoff games this season and will most likely have increased attendance next season so being tight with the dollar isn’t the smart thing to do if you can get some good players at your pricepoint.
I think this is the winter of the stopgap.
The Yankees are going to field a playoff team but Cashman’s eye is already on next winter. While I don’t think anyone believes the Twins are going to let Joe Mauer hit free agency there’s a good chance that the market will contain some combination of:
Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, and Jayson Werth.
Miggs —-
The Yanks have almost $ 50 Million coming off THIS year you clown. Making up facts to support your arguments doesn’t make you any more right.
I will bet you $ 500 right now that the Yankees DO make a major acquisition in the next two years. My definition of a major acquisition is a player that will cost them $ 50 Million or more.
You game?
David — No one is giving Halladay $ 25 Million a year
“If Halliday tells the Jays he will reject a trade to any team but the Yanks, the Jays would pretty much have to agree to the offer”
Or Toronto says – fine, you’re under contract for this year and then you can sign with them as a free agent.
“The Yanks have almost $ 50 Million coming off THIS year you clown. Making up facts to support your arguments doesn’t make you any more right”
What’s going back on though? Sabathia was on the books for $14M last year. This year it will be $24M ($23M plus a pro rated piece of his $9M signing bonus). Teixeira was on the books for $20M in ‘09. In 2010 it’s $23M. Cano made $6M in ‘09 and jumps to $9M in 2010. Swisher gets a $1.5M bump.
That’s about $17M off the $50M you speak of. As of today, they have $165M committed to 10 players. That does not include Pettitte, Damon or Matsui or any arbitration matters. Assuming they come in the $200M to $205M range again, there is not a huge amount of wiggle room.
86w183, while they do have almost, almost $50 million coming off the books, they do have to replace a starting pitcher, a starting left fielder, and a starting DH all the while paying increases due to normal salary arbitration and annual increases. Further, CC made ONLY $15 or $16 million this year, but in 2010 on makes $23 million, a $7 million to $8 million difference.
Regardless, we can crunch numbers all day, and I’d be happy to, but they will need to pay Pettitte or his replacement upwards of $10 million, agreed? And Damon a minimum of $10 million if he returns. That’s $20 million already. If they add Lackey at $15+ million, that takes them right back where they started – beofre raises and arbitration, and before adding someone for LF if Damon is your DH.
I don’t see it happening, but hey, I’ve been wrong before. You just never know.
Squids numbers and mine aren’t exactly the same, but you get the general idea. You can’t just look at what’s coming off, you have to take into account what’s forcast for the upcoming years and plan accordingly.
‘10 and ‘11 could be pateau years, salary-wise. There are some interesting FA offerings after 2010 and after 2011, and I’m sure the team wants to be able to consider them also, while taking into account current players. And nobody realistically thinks that Rivera and Jeter will take significant salary cuts, should they continue to play. In fact, I’m sure management is praying that Andy and Posada retire after their current contracts, this year notwithstanding.
Sabathia made $ 23 Million. The structure of the bonus and salaries don’t change reality.
It’s fine to start assigning the $$ and reducing the number because that’s what’s going to happen.
Right now the Yankees have holes at LF, DH, SP, C, Bench
They are free of obligations to Damon ($ 13), Matsui ($ 13), Pettite ($ 10.5), Nady ($ 6.5), Wang ($ 5), Molina ($ 2), Hairston ($ 2) and Hinske ($ 1.5).
That’s more than $ 50 Million and several positions to fill. The chance that none of those positions will be filled by a “major acquisition” is pretty remote based on the Yankees history.
Some will be eaten up by increases, but not by Sabathia. Teixiera’s contract is averaged over the years for luxury tax purposes. In reality he made $ 25 Million in cash last year and just $ 20 Million in 2010. His salary goes to $ 22.5 for the following six seasons.
“Some will be eaten up by increases, but not by Sabathia. Teixiera’s contract is averaged over the years for luxury tax purposes.”
So was Sabathia’s. He was paid $23M, but $9M of it was bonus which for accounting purposes will reflect an extra $1.3M to his $24M for the next six seasons. He’s on the books for $10M more than he was last year. That’s fact.
86w183, the Yankees only paid a portion of the salaries for Hairston and Hinske, as they were obtained late in the season. The structures and bonuses do change reality, as they factor. Regardless, the question to ask is does the team intend to lower overall payroll, increase it, or keep it the same. I’m inclined to think that they will lower it, as revenues are being affected.
If they decide to reduce payroll by say $10 million, it lowers the amount available for a Free Agent Starting Pitcher, PLUS Andy Pettitte, PLUS either Damon or a Free Agent LF, PLUS normal raises/arbitration.
Something’s gotta give. Problem is none of us know what that something is. It’s all just speculation. But if it were me – I’d be prudent.
“In reality he made $ 25 Million in cash last year and just $ 20 Million in 2010. His salary goes to $ 22.5 for the following six seasons.”
True. But he was on the books for $20M this year, despite being paid $25M. He is back on for $20M in 2010, so I was off on that.
“which for accounting purposes will reflect an extra $1.3M to his $24M for the next six seasons.”
This should read “…an extra $1.3M to his $23M…..”
My ballot would be:
Pujols
Utley
Ramirez
everyone else
I remember after the 2004 season when Millar, Damon and Mueller were allfree agents and Kevin Millar said that because the three of them were suchgood friends they should tell teams that if you want one, you have to sign all three<
Actually it was Johnny Damon who said that.