Getting ready for the Rule 5
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 10, 2009 
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The Rule 5 draft is pretty much the finale of the Winter Meetings. It begins this morning at 9, and most executives will get out of town within a few hours of the last pick. I’m kind of a geek about this sort of thing, so I really enjoy the Rule 5. It’s become much more significant for the Yankees now that they’ve traded for the top pick (Washington will take whoever the Yankees tell them to pick, then trade the pick to New York).
I know a lot of Yankees minor league and scouting officials, but I haven’t heard a definite choice. There seem to be three theories about who the Yankees are going to choose.
1. LHP Zach Kroenke — This became a popular rumor late last night. Kroenke is currently with the Yankees, but they didn’t protect him from the Rule 5 and the idea is that they now want him to replace Phil Coke. It makes some sense. I first saw the idea here, then Ed Price said he heard the same thing. Then I read it again. John Manuel, though, says it’s not going to happen. Manuel says the Yankees are more likely to pick Ben Jukich or Ben Snyder if they want a left-handed reliever. As an aside, Kroenke was taken in the Rule 5 last year, but the Marlins didn’t keep him. I believe (but I’m not positive) if he’s taken and offered back a second time, he has the right to become a free agent rather than accept a minor league assignment. That might be another reason for the Yankees to take him, to have control over that.
2. RHP Arquimedes Caminero — The hard-throwing right-hander was the early favorite when Steve Henson reported the Yankees were leaning toward Caminero. Yesterday afternoon I got into an email discussion with Frankie Piliere who has scouted and loves Caminero’s arm. I also heard yesterday afternoon that the guy the Yankees were going after was getting legitimate interest from other teams (Jayson Stark reported that the Yankees were shopping the pick, but this was a different source saying it’s not just the Yankees trying to shop, it’s other team’s trying to acquire). That sounds like someone like Caminero. I didn’t know much about him until yesterday, but his fastball is supposed to be huge. Bigger than unprotected Yankees right-handers Kevin Whelan or Grant Duff.
3. OF John Raynor — This is Jonathan Mayo’s pick, and Raynor had some buzz going into this week’s Winter Meetings as well. He and Caminero are both in the Marlins system, and Raynor was ranked as their No. 11 prospect by Baseball America entering this season. “He could challenge for a big league starting job by the end of 2009,” the magazine wrote. Problem is, Raynor had a career .490 slugging percentage but slugged an awful .360 in the Pacific Coast League this year. That’s significantly lower than light-hitting shortstop Doug Bernier slugged in his two PCL seasons. Might have simply been one bad year in an otherwise strong minor league career. Could be worth taking a shot.
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Ysterday I wondered if the Yankees might take an outfielder who can catch (there are two legitimate Rule 5 candidates who fit that description and it would give them a third catcher on days Posada is the DH). That was pretty much my own attempt to think outside the box, but if the Yankees really are planning to take someone who’s generating trade interest from multiple teams, that doesn’t sound like a quirky catcher/outfielder.
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I talked to another team’s scout about some of the Yankees who could be drafted. The Yankees lost four guys last year – all were returned – including Kroenke. The scout said his team wasn’t likely to take anyone in the draft, but they did talk about two Yankees: Kroenke (“Just like last year, a left-on-left guy,” the scout said) and Duff (“I would not be surprised if Duff went just because of the velocity”).
Colin Curtis has gotten some buzz after a great stint in the Arizona Fall League, the scout I talked to said he couldn’t see Curtis sticking on a big league roster all season. He liked him as a guy to potentially call up if a player gets hurt, but he didn’t expect a team to carry him on opening day. “He’s a good baseball player,” the scout said. “But keeping him in the Major Leagues all year might be a reach.”
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My own list of eight Yankees who could be taken:
Colin Curtis, OF – Good tools across the board, but no overwhelming minor league numbers until the Fall League.
Grant Duff, RHP – Touches the upper 90s with his fastball, burst onto the scene this year.
Jason Hirsh, RHP – Starter acquired from Colorado in August. Once a huge prospect, has significant major league time, but injuries knocked his career off the tracks. Good numbers with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Alan Horne, RHP — Another big prospect hurt by injuries. He’s healthy now but hasn’t pitched much the past two years.
George Kontos, RHP – Would be a huge risk to be taken, but he had Tommy John surgery last summer and won’t be ready to pitch until May or June.
Zach Kroenke, LHP – If the Yankees don’t take him, I think someone will.
Kanekoa Texeira, RHP – The other piece brought to the Yankees in the Nick Swisher trade had a 2.84 ERA in Double-A this year.
Kevin Whelan, RHP – Great stuff (big fastball, terrific split) but has 161 walks in 266 career innings. Control was much better in Triple-A this season.
Chad, thanks for the info. You certainly are good at what you do.
My interest is piqued by the thought that another team is interested in acquiring whoever the Yankees pick. Part of a package, perhaps?
I had thought that the Rule 5 was supposed to be full of interesting players because of the economy and team’s deciding not to offer contracts. Or am I getting this mixed up with something else?
You’re getting it mixed up with the non-tender date, that’s in a few days and those players will just become FA.
when a team has the overall #1 pick in the Rule 5 and they are ready to select it’s own players, then you know the draft sucks this year.
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....ay10s.html
If this is true, then Doc has no problems with playing in the NL and hitting…….long term. So much for Doc wanting to play with the Yankees.,
Are you eligible to select if you already have 40 on your roster when your turn arrives or do you need to be at something less than 40?
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....r-Halladay
Phil -
Thanks.
Because I do remember something from about a month ago where Cashman would be looking closely at those players – maybe being able to find a good player that is simply unaffordable to another team. Just thought it had to do with Rule 5. Sometimes, there really IS too much information!
“If this is true, then Doc has no problems with playing in the NL and hitting…….long term. So much for Doc wanting to play with the Yankees.”
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Doc Halladay in the NL. Works for me.
Kontos might actually be attractive due to his injury. If he is going to be out longer than expected, a team can keep him on the DL for a majority of the year, rehab assignment him, then activate him when rosters expand.
I believe the Red Sox did something similar last year with their Rule 5 pick. I think he stayed on the DL the whole year though.
Am I the only one who is a little concerned about Halladay going to the Phillies? I think the angels have lost too much to be a factor even with Roy unless they make significant other moves. And the sox have several other issues to address as well. The Yankees goal isn’t to win the AL east or even the AL, its to win the WS.
http://www.washingtontimes.com.....in-rule-5/
I’m sorry, but what the fudge are the Yankees doing? They traded Bruney for nothing, absolutely nothing. If they waned Kroenke in the first place, why the heck did they release him?
I knew I shouldn’t have gotten my hopes up about Doc -these are depressing developments. I’m sure he’ll sign an extension…and even if he doesn’t, we are hardly a sure thing to sign him next year.
“Am I the only one who is a little concerned about Halladay going to the Phillies? I think the angels have lost too much to be a factor even with Roy unless they make significant other moves. And the sox have several other issues to address as well. The Yankees goal isn’t to win the AL east or even the AL, its to win the WS”
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couldn’t care less. If Roy Halladay leaves the AL, yankee fans should throw a party.
Vinny, I agree that its great April-september. However if you add Halladay to what the phils already have then they should waltz to the world series. I just don’t see anyone in the NL beating them with Lee and Halladay atop the rotaion. If the Yankees ultimate goal is to win the world series then Halladay to the Phils affects their chances more than any other team at least in 2010 IMO
Betsy, they didn’t release Kroenke, the simply didn’t protect him by adding him to the 40 man roster. If he’s not selected by another team, he’s still Yankee property.
have always liked George Kontos.
do not wish for him to leave the NYY system
Blake, yes – but not because of what you said. I wanted Doc…….
Jim, the point is they traded Bruney for nothing if they are picking a guy they didn’t even like well enough to protect
“Vinny, I agree that its great April-september. However if you add Halladay to what the phils already have then they should waltz to the world series. I just don’t see anyone in the NL beating them with Lee and Halladay atop the rotaion. If the Yankees ultimate goal is to win the world series then Halladay to the Phils affects their chances more than any other team at least in 2010 IMO”
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blake: a lot can happen between April and Sept. And even if the Phillies do reach the WS next year, the Yankees have defeated teams in the WS with very dominant pitching. The Atlanta Braves in the late 90′s for example.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports.....MYjB786lPJ
Yankees officials consider the trade packages Santana fetched after the 2007 season and Sabathia did during the 2008 season as far inferior to what the Blue Jays are demanding to just pay the ante on Halladay: top hitting prospect Jesus Montero and either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes.
Betsy,
You get depressed too easily. If Roy Halladay goes ANYWHERE but the Boston Red Sox, you have nothing to be depressed about.
Your team just won a World Series, got better by adding an All Star CF, and gave up very little for him, and got Andy Pettitte, the winningist post-season pitcher back in the fold.
Those aren’t depressing developments.
Nobody waltzes to the World Series. That’s off-season nonsense talk.
Going to the World Series, and winning it, is VERY hard to do, regardless of the talent on your team.
vinny-b
December 10th, 2009 at 8:17 am
“If this is true, then Doc has no problems with playing in the NL and hitting…….long term. So much for Doc wanting to play with the Yankees.”
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Doc Halladay in the NL. Works for me.
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LOL
me too!
When are the Yanks supposed to meet with Sheets’ agent?
Its not a great year for Rule 5 guys. Most of the guys available just aren’t very good.
Some years, you get interesting guys on the list. This isn’t one of those years.
got my laugh of the day:
Dombrowksi was describing Rick Porcello’s skills/game, and Plesaac tells Dombrowski, “He has a pretty good take down move to”.
Dombrowski laughs replying, “Yes he does”
Betsy,
The Yankees can get Doc. They just have to trade Phil Hughes.
Somehow I think you’d be singing a different tune if that happened.
SJ, I’m not literally depressed, but I got my hopes up for no reason. I hate when that happens…
Boras said yesterday in the Toronto Sun,he felt it was too costly giving up both money and players.Like Cashman’s outlook.Boras also said he didn’t think it would happen.
I hope this is all media driven,and Doc really wants too wait,and walk like A did.
The good thing is whenever Doc leaves,Anthopouls will fade into oblivion.
Also, the Granderson deal was very good, but that has nothing to do with Doc. I’m glad Andy is back, but we don’t know that he’s going to give us the same type of performance next year……and Joba and Phil are huge question marks.
GFD, it doesn’t really matter what Boras thinks. Why is he even chiming in? The Jays per the Fox article could spin Saunders elsewhere…….and the Phils are getting in the game. Boras needs to be quiet – he’s talking too much. First he opened his mouth about Damon/Granderson, now this?
“SJ, I’m not literally depressed, but I got my hopes up for no reason. I hate when that happens”
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think about Curtis Granderson. NYY finally got their 5-tool athletic outfielder. Who is young
For all the people who come on here whining about Brian Cashman everyday, how is Theo Epstein doing?
He has to go to his boss this morning and tell him to eat 12 million dollars so he can send Mike Lowell to Texas for a AAA catcher coming off serious wrist surgery.
That puts the grand total of “dead money” (money a team eats for players no long with the club)for the Red Sox to over 20 million in the past year. That will make the remaining hairs on Larry Lucchino’s head stand on edge.
Expect a leaked story in the Boston Globe in the next few days about the “wasted money” on the Red Sox payroll. If that happens, its coming from Lucchino, who isn’t a big Theo fan.
The Yankees have no such issues.
Once you tie up funds with your club on dead money, it impacts what you can do. Not the “genius” way to run your baseball operation.
IT Basically comes down to Doc and where he wants to play.
The Yanks should monitor the situation. But i think they should take a good look at Sheets , Bedard and Douscher.
“think about Curtis Granderson. NYY finally got their 5-tool athletic outfielder”
Well, 4-tool anyway. The hitting for average is yet to be seen. If he doesn’t become overly pull conscious, he could hopefully get into the 270-285 range.
Mark:
he hit .290 in the same season he netted over 20 triples and 20 HR’s. That’s pretty close to 5-tool, to me
Nothing says Cashman has to do deals strictly at the winter meetings. He could do a deal on the plane back to NYC or later.
The Rule 5 business just about wraps up the winter meetings and GM’s head home.
Betsy,
Its early in the off-season, and the Yankees filled two of their biggest needs.
They can now sit back and wait for the market to come back to them. Something no other team can do right now in the game.
They are in the PERFECT position to round out their roster on their own terms.
They have the flexibility to go in a bunch of different directions, depending on what shakes out in the marketplace.
That’s what you want from your team at this time of year.
Everybody is asking for the moon right now. Trade partners, free agents, etc.
If you can afford to wait out the market, which the Yankees can now do, prices will come down and the options will be plentiful.
i hope NYY offers Damon a 1-year offer with an option.
forget 4 years. Forget 3 years. Forget 2 years.
Boston has no LF either. They also have questions about starters #3-5. Their ace hasn’t pitched that way in a while. Only #2 starter is solid.
I think the Soriano trade by the Rays is a great move for them. He is not on par with Mariano, obviously, or the other elite closers; but he will at least settle the closer question for them. Their biggest problem last year was mis-using their best middle relief in the closer role.
Their rotation could be the best in the AL East IF things pan out with their young guys. CC is still the best starter in the AL East, but the Rays have 3 very solid pitchers, with 2 or 3 potentially very good young starters.
The Rays could be the major competition for the division this year, with Boston out in the cold.
Betsy
Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun wrote the article and asked for his opinion,so he’s quoted.
I’m surely no fan of Boras.I’m hoping his clients All settle for far less of what he’s asking,so he has egg on his face.
But SJ44
Can’t we run the risk of being too patient ? The market can explode at anytime. All it takes is one desperate team to over pay and and therefore cause a ripple effect to drive prices upward.
i guess it can go either way
vinny-b,
I know, I was just referring to last year. Also, the short RF tends to have a detrimental effect on LH BA. Hopefully he doesn’t give in to the temptation to pull everything, like Giambi-.340 hitter down to .240. Of course, there were other factors as well, there.
Remember, Comerica really held down his hitting, especially his ba/obp.
“I know, I was just referring to last year. Also, the short RF tends to have a detrimental effect on LH BA. Hopefully he doesn’t give in to the temptation to pull everything, like Giambi-.340 hitter down to .240. Of course, there were other factors as well, there”
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mark: exellent point. Very important. It will be up to the yankees to convey this point to Granderson. He doesn’t seem to be the hard-headed type. It is up to the yankees to prohibit this from developing
Joel Sherman says the post has learned we will take Dodger 1b Jamie Hoffman with the first pick in the Rule 5. That’s got to be part of another trade.
Very true what SJ says about dead money with Boston’s predicament. If they eat most of Lowell’s contract of $12.5M to get a AAA catcher (Max Ramirez) and the remaining year of Lugo’s $9M contract whether a plays or not, then it is truly dead money.
Fans in Boston can take comfort in knowing that ticket price increases at Ye Olde Ballpark will absorb the dead money.
SJ
I read on bostondirtdogs,Theo is looking to bring back Coco Crisp (CF).That should make the owner head spin too!
They really are in a transition year.
Check out Boston.com,they are being drilled by the writers.
gfd
I saw someone mention the soxs were looking at Coco too. I thought it was a load. They were so desperate to get rid of him.
in addition, would also like to recommend the following site for entertainment value: http://www.sonsofsamhorn.com
(in particular, the Curtis Granderson thread and redsox fan’s reactions to the trade)
Give Cashman his due. In each of the last two years, he’s read the market properly, especially with his own players. Once again, two more teams gotten bitten in the arbitration arena by players the teams didn’t really want, They wanted the draft picks and now, they are scrambling to take pennies on the dollar to get out from under big raises. The bottom dropped out of the market and instead of paying 15-18 mil, the Yanks aren’t caught overpaying for replaceable (though, losing Matsui and Damon hurt).
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=52034
the curtis granderson thread (pure gold)
“gfd says:
December 10, 2009 at 8:50 am
Betsy
Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun wrote the article and asked for his opinion,so he’s quoted.
I’m surely no fan of Boras.I’m hoping his clients All settle for far less of what he’s asking,so he has egg on his face.”
okay, so you don’t like Boras because he does his clients bidding?
Boras is a multimillionaire agent he’s a champion agent who gets the best players. Players sign with him cause they want the most money. Don’t hate Boras for doing his job well.
raymanetic
g
I always remember this is about a sports.Because of that,I never hate people.Go back and reread what I wrote to Betsy.Hate is no where in the post.
I do dislike some of Boras’s tactics,i.e. bidding wars,asking for way too much,etc.But I repeat I don’t hate people,it’s evil!!
Jennifer
Nesn and boston.com are killing Theo and company for this offseason coasting.
Mike,
Markets don’t explode. Not with every team in the baseball feeling the pinch of the economy.
The fact is, this market will be soft for just about everybody with the exception of Matt Holliday, John Lackey and perhaps Jason Bay, depending on the medicals re: his shoulder and knee.
Cashman knows this which is why he struck quickly with Granderson and Pettitte and will now wait it out to fill his other needs.
What’s the take on Damon – is he holding out for 4 or would he take the 1+ offered by the Yanks? My guess is Damon (while not a lot of options out there) is done as a Yankee. Someone will give him more years, if not more money…