Corona putting himself in the big league mix
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 20, 2009 
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Reegie Corona made his Triple-A debut this season, and the result was … unimpressive. He was fine defensively, especially at second base, but he hit just .200 with a .241 on-base and a .300 slugging. He was a speed guy who seemed to hit everything in the air.
But I wouldn’t rule him out for the big league utility job next year.
Corona hit .355 with two home runs and two stolen bases in his last eight regular-season games. He kept hitting in the International League playoffs, batting .295 with twice as many walks (6) as strikeouts (3). Now he’s hitting .328 with a .447 on-base percentage in Venezuela.
Upgrading the bench has been a low priority for the Yankees this winter, and last year they were willing to go into spring training with Cody Ransom as their top utility candidate and into the season with unproven Ramiro Pena on the big league bench. Unless the Yankees bring in a veteran, the utiilty job could very well come down to the four young guys on the 40-man: Pena, Corona, Eduardo Nunez and Kevin Russo.
Nunez and Russo have the best bats, but Pena and Corona are the best defensive and most versatile players in the bunch. Corona has a better career batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage than Pena. And while Pena has never stolen more than nine bases in a season, Corona had three straight years with at least 24. Pena has a better glove, but Corona can handle short. He’s not great there, but he’s good enough to play the position 10 times a year.
Corona wasn’t especially good when I saw him. But that doesn’t mean he won’t be good when the Yankees see him this spring.
Why has there not been talk of re-signing Hairston? Seems like a good idea to me…
David, I agree. Hairston seemed like a very good fit. Has he signed anywhere yet?
I guess the bench is a low priority compared to pitching and possible LF, but that could be a pretty easy move.
I’m looking forward to all those candidates in ST Chad. Right now I like Pena, but hey, some time ago I was a big fan of that kid we got in the Arizona trade. What was his name? Slick fielder, but wasn’t so great with the bat. Don’t know what happened to him after we traded him. What was his name?
Old Man Berroa’s stint In stripes was that forgettable?
DaSaint. Just curious, who are you targeting in next year’s free agent class? Hallday is already gone. Pujols and Mauer will probably sign extensions..That leaves Crawford, Werth, Beckett, and Cliff Lee as impact players.
The Yankees already have to re-sign Jeter and Rivera next year.
Off topic (repost :
Blake-
I was hoping for a more realistic answer.
remember the conditions. You are trying to be Cash not yourself.
You(he) have targetted Bay. Tell me how you are realistically gonna get him knowing what you know about his
market, and about your ability to pay ?
Not totally wild ideas. you know that aint gonna get it.
2-22. we need rope man !
I advocated for Hairston too. Liked his demeanor, his versitility in the IF/OF, and had speed as well. Yankees won’t offer anything near $1 million on a 1 year contract though, which is why a rookie at $400K makes sense. I’d still prefer the veteran presence though.
Just saw over at MLB TradeRumors about Fehr’s comment on the up coming contract renewal. Giving the warning of a reminder of the strike. Wow. Talk about coming out swinging.
I wonder if that was prompted by the Selig committee.
Dasaint007
Attorney General
DaSaint… you mean the Attorney General, Alberto Gonzalez?
Chad,
I appreciate all the content you are providing.
David
Cash’s reason would probably be that they have very little payroll space to spare.
Mine would be that Girardi would overuse him.
With regard to the #5 hitter, I would give Cano a shot.
MTU, its hard for me to answer that question because my high bid for him would be lower than what the Mets or Red Sox have already offered him and he has rejected.
Lets hear your ideas.
All the talk of salary control notwithstanding, a difference of 600K to acquire Hairston (if that is what it were to come to) seems a bit ridiculous to stop the Yanks from making the move.
A one year deal would let Bay test the FA market again next year when the economy could be better (it may not though) and it would enable him to stick it to the RS.
David
Top heavy teams have those kind of problems. Plus, he’s not that good offensively or defensively. I’m fine with Pena or some other in house option.
Blake, just to jump in on your question, I would target Lee.
I wouldn’t balk at Crawford, but if I had a choice between Crawford and Holliday, I lean slightly toward Holliday. I also am not positive that Crawford will be available. The Rays really need to try to keep him, he is important to that team.
Werth would be OK as well, but I think he could get expensive. I think he would be werth it.
Thing is, next year some of the talent coming through the system is a year closer to the bigs if they can make it. Will that cause a block to them coming up in the right time frame?
Abda-
since you like to deal in hypotheticals I have another question to ask.
Does Holliday’s market shrink, grow, or stay the same if he decides to keep waiting.
Think about the market for a moment and give me your best guess.
I am asking you be Matt for a minute thinking about his siituation.
Do I wait.
Should i take an offer.
What is likely to happen if I risk waiting and I dont take the offer that may be out there ? will there be an even worse
offer the longer I wait ?
What are my prospects and what would be my best course of action.
Try to be him. Just as an exercise.
blake,
Next offseason, I’d be looking for only 2 players:
LF – Carl Crawford
SP – Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, or Cliff Lee
I like what Crawford brings to the table:
* He’d be under 30, so I can sign him to a 5 year contract for less than I’m going to have to pay a Holliday or Bay.
* He covers alot of ground, has a good arm, and is a terror on the bases (Jeter can not be the leadoff forever), with 50+ stolen base capability.
* He’s a good guy, which the Yankees now value.
Pitching:
Brandon Webb – I don’t think Arizona will be able to afford him, and prior to 2009, he pitches virtually 200 innings/year. He’s a strikeout pitcher, which the Yankees like. He’ll be 31, so a 4 year contract would be reasonable.
Beckett – I think we all know his resume.
Lee – He’s a lefty (and Pettitte) may either retire or not be on the team, and another lefty would be a good idea. He’s a strikeout pitcher (see above for Yankee preference), and he most likely won’t resign with Seattle – just a hunch.
Rich, I’ve been thinking of the shorter term contracts as well. Trouble is there are some things that could push the economic downturn even further before it rebounds.
I was thinking a two year deal might entice some of the players, it also moves them off a good FA class which might decrease their value.
edit (and Pettitte may either retire or not be on the team)
Thanks for the info on our young players Chad. Interesting stuff.
Abdababdaserser
You’re right, like CRE and ARMs.
The reason I suggest one year is that I want as much payroll flexibility as possible for 2011.
Abdababdaserser,
I agree, my point was that next year’s class may end up being just as thin as this years. Holliday is better than both Crawford and Werth IMO and could end up being cheaper as well (depends on how next years market is). I think Cliff Lee will be available and may be someone the Yankees can look. However, if they don’t fix the LF situation this year are they going to re-sign Jeter and Rivera, go after Crawford or Werth, and go after Cliff Lee all in the same offseason?
If they signed Holliday this year then they could put their full concentration on Lee or Beckett or whatever pitching is available next year.
I’ve always liked Reegie. His biggest challenge has been getting stronger. When I saw him as a seventeen year old he weighed maybe a buck ten, but, he’s take a walk and he could run. He had the game winning hit in the NYPL championship game the summer that Nunez was looking so good for SI. Nunez has the opposite problem. He’s surpriningly strong but won’t walk. I like Russo. And Pena like Reegie has always needed to add strength, though he’s never been as likely to take a walk.
Now that the farm is producing some second tier guys with Yankee DNA, I like keeping them for the jobs like UT and back-up catcher and 4th OF. It’s a great place to save money and they all know what the story is having come up through the system. I favor cheap, homegrown pens, too. And eventually I’d like to see mostly homegrown starters all over the place.
Blake-
I really dont have answers at this moment either.
I am just trying to understand the process someone like Cash
might be forced to go thru.
If i try to answer it. I do it by process rather than by specifics.
It’s almost like I would try to solve a math problem.
I may not know the answer until I get toa solution but I follow a process, a specific set of rules to help me arrive at one. Like a flowchart.
isn’t that waht cash always says, and people sometimes laugh,
it’s a PROCESS. I wonder he means what he says, and it something like what you and I were playing at ?
If you follow a process you will arrive at a solution.
To flowchart that process you have specific certain conditions.
We have to assume the conditions Cash KNOWS the conditions.
Like the actual budget.
like wether he prefers FA’s to trades, etc.
If your’re bored with it that’s fine. I totally understand.
DaSaint,
couple of things. I don’t think there are any guarantees that Crawford will be cheaper than Holliday. Holliday is coming at a discount so far this offseason because of the economy and the way the market is playing out. It may not be this way next year. I also think that Holliday projects to age better as a player because he doesn’t rely as much on speed. Crawford as many have pointed out has played on turf for many years and has a lot of wear and tear on his legs and if they go so does his value. In addition to those things he may sign an extension and never even become a free agent. Holliday is also a good guy and if they sign him this year then you can target the pitcher from those you named that makes the most sense next year.
Right now, today, with the projected 25-man roster listed below, which includes some estimated arbitration increases, the Yankee payroll is approx. $191.5 million. Of course, I could be off by 3 or 4 million, so it could be nearer to $195 million.
Starting Pitching
CC Sabathia (L) $23,000,000
AJ Burnett $16,500,000
Andy Pettitte (L) $11,750,000
Joba Chamberlain $475,000
Phil Hughes $432,575
Bullpen
Mariano Rivera $15,000,000
Damaso Marte (L) $4,000,000
Chad Gaudin $2,250,000
Alfredo Aceves $432,575
Dave Robertson $432,575
Mark Melancon $400,000
Mike Dunn (L) $400,000
Infield
Mark Teixeira $20,000,000
Robinson Cano $9,000,000
Derek Jeter $21,000,000
Alex Rodriguez $32,000,000
Ramiro Pena $406,825
Outfield
Melky Cabrera $1,800,000
Curtis Granderson $5,500,000
Nick Swisher $6,750,000
Brett Gardner $432,575
Jamie Hoffman $400,000
Catchers
Jorge Posada $13,100,000
Francisco Cervelli $406,825
DH
Nick Johnson $5,500,000
TOTAL: $191,368,950
Point is, Holliday or Bay if signed this offseason, would push that number up over $210 million, which would be 4 to 6 million HIGHER than last year. It’s not happening this year.
Blake-
We dont KNOW that it’s either a hitter or a pitcher. Maybe it’s both. We’re gonna find out eventually.
MTU, putting myself into Holliday’s shoes… that would be very nice… Merry Christmas to me! WooHoo! I’d sign in a heartbeat right now!
Seriously, I think it depends on if there really are no other offers, officially or just discussion.
If there is some interest from another team and they are a team I like and would want to play for, then I would wait a bit longer. I might also consider floating the idea of a shorter term contract or an opt out option. Those possibilities would not be given out to every team, but only to those I would be interested in playing for the most.
A shorter term deal might boost value a little, as it lessens the risk for the club of a long contract. An opt out allows to sign for less than expected with the thought that the economy improving could mean upping the paycheck while still young enough to maintain the value.
MTU, I’ve thought about it and the only solutions that make sense to me are Holliday or stick with Melky. If Cashman feels that way as well then the only question is whether or not they can fit Holliday into the budget and none of us can answer that all important question.
DaSaint, that may be true but it does no good to save money this year if you’re going to spend more next year on a lesser product. We don’t know what the Yankees budget is anyway.
MTU, I hope you’re right and they sign Holliday and Sheets but I’m not getting my hopes up for that.
Abda-
you’re right. very rich. Can i get a loan ?
Would you like me to propose a specific scenario, or a set of conditions ? or would you just rather give it up for now ?
I’d like to see how you reason being Matt(or you).
You cannot discount the sheer possibility of Mauer hitting the free agent market.
If we sign Holliday this year and Mauer does indeed become a free agent that will be a big problem.
I have been going back and forth on Holliday, but to me he is not good enough and LF is not enough of a need to give up the chance at getting Mauer.
blake, there’s an old saying: If IF was a Fifth, then we’d all be drunk.
Simply put, if anyone gets injured, they will not produce. If Lee signs an extension with Seattle, he won’t be a FA option with the Yankees. Same with Webb and Beckett. But you don’t eliminate the payroll flexibility because someone WON’T be there any more than if they WILL be there. You have to be ready.
Now IF you had a pressing need for say a starting position player, and one was available, you jump at it. But there’s no pressing need, so you can take the risk. It’s like buying stock. You don’t not do it because it may go down, you do it because you hope that it goes up. No different here. Some moves are gambles, and when you have a team comprised of:
Tex, Cano, Jeter, Arod, Posada, Granderson, CC, AJ, and Rivera, I think you can afford to take a gamble and wait one year for the next FA class, which almost everyone agrees is a deeper pool of talent.
December 20th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Right now, today, with the projected 25-man roster listed below, which includes some estimated arbitration increases, the Yankee payroll is approx. $191.5 million. Of course, I could be off by 3 or 4 million, so it could be nearer to $195 million.
Starting Pitching
CC Sabathia (L) $23,000,000
AJ Burnett $16,500,000
Andy Pettitte (L) $11,750,000
Joba Chamberlain $475,000
Phil Hughes $432,575
Bullpen
Mariano Rivera $15,000,000
Damaso Marte (L) $4,000,000
Chad Gaudin $2,250,000
Alfredo Aceves $432,575
Dave Robertson $432,575
Mark Melancon $400,000
Mike Dunn (L) $400,000
Infield
Mark Teixeira $20,000,000
Robinson Cano $9,000,000
Derek Jeter $21,000,000
Alex Rodriguez $32,000,000
Ramiro Pena $406,825
Outfield
Melky Cabrera $1,800,000
Curtis Granderson $5,500,000
Nick Swisher $6,750,000
Brett Gardner $432,575
Jamie Hoffman $400,000
Catchers
Jorge Posada $13,100,000
Francisco Cervelli $406,825
DH
Nick Johnson $5,500,000
TOTAL: $191,368,950
Point is, Holliday or Bay if signed this offseason, would push that number up over $210 million, which would be 4 to 6 million HIGHER than last year. It’s not happening this year.
—————————————————–
one problem- Melky will be more that $1.5m. of course, you could, at that point, trade Swisher for prospects & have Melky play rf, both uprading the defense and reducing the payroll.
Blake-
I’m not either. just considering the possibilities.
I have not real way of knowing. i dont know cash personally,
and I do not ESP, and I am not allowed to be a fly on the wall in the negotiating room. Too bad.
I amforced to merely hypothesize and spin my wheels.
But were gonna know eventually. What happens may surpise us.
Cash has a creative mind.
Depends how they structure Holliday’s deal.
If money is no object, than I say we go sign Matt Capps, Mike McDougall and Darren Oliver right now, because an argument can be made that they are significantly better than Dave Robertson, Chad Gaudin, and Damaso Marte. So why don’t we create a bulletproff bullpen?
Answer: Because it’s not absolutely necessary. We take some risk for the value. We expect that the players in the pen will be nearly as productive for their value, and we don’t want to get locked into long term contracts there.
My response therefore is that LF is not a pressing need this season. If Melky does not hold his own, or becomes a detriment to the team, then we can explore other options next year, or if he improves, he can continue with his development there.
Blake-
and I forgot. I dont know Matt either so i cant ask him what he’s gonna do. And I dont know his dad, or any of his relatives, or friends of his realtives, or firnds of theirs, and so on. Can you help ? Do you know any of them personally ? if so, please make a call I can wait.
My response therefore is that LF is not a pressing need this season. If Melky does not hold his own, or becomes a detriment to the team, then we can explore other options next year, or if he improves, he can continue with his development there.
———————————————————-
Well said
Rich – I understand where you’re coming from, but still, if we are approaching our payroll constraints, I don’t think an additional 600K (again, if that is in fact what it would come to) would even be noticeable, never mind significant. Let’s say 200 is the number. 200.6 seems just as satisfactory.
While Hairston had his flaws, when we had him I felt as though we had a legit professional coming off the bench, whereas Pena et al are decidedly amateurs in almost everything they do. When October comes, which is essentially the only important month to us, I would much rather hand the glove/bat to Hairston than Pena or someone similar.
More generally, concerning Holliday, his tenure on the A’s made the decision for me. I would never risk giving him a 4-5 year deal after that abysmal performance, and I don’t think anything less is very realistic. Our lineup isn’t a problem for us anyway.
Dasaint, I’m not a sign Holliday at all costs guy. I’m a sign Holliday at the right price guy. I agree that he isn’t a Need in the same sense that Tex or CC were last year. However if he can be had for less money than he is worth then why not. One thing people seem to refuse to consider is that the core of this team is getting older and one year can make a difference. If you can get a player now at a good price then why wait a year when your other players will be a year older.
Seems like the exodus from Anaheim continues. First Figgins, then Lackey, now it appears that Darren Oliver is on his way to Texas.
Damn. You lose your starting 3B. Then arguably your best starter. Then your best LH bullpen arm.
Too bad Oliver didn’t go to Seattle. Would have made them odds on favorite to win the AL West.
Too bad Oliver didn’t go to Seattle. Would have made them odds on favorite to win the AL West.
———————————————————-
I thought they already were odd on to win the west
“However, if they don’t fix the LF situation this year are they going to re-sign Jeter and Rivera, go after Crawford or Werth, and go after Cliff Lee all in the same offseason?”
It won’t be that difficult if they resign Jeter and Rivera during the 15-day period when you can only negotiate with your own FA’s (they did this with Posada two years ago). Get those two wrapped up and there’s plenty of time for Crawford, Lee, etc.
I actually think the Yankees are at a huge advantage next year because the only major players that will be testing free agency are guys who only have an interest in staying in NY (Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte), while a team like the Red Sox may have their ace and cleanup hitter testing free agency.
I can see that point DaSaint. The only thing is how the Yankees FO values Holliday compared to others who might be available, including in house options.
I can see them going either way, and can see how either direction can be justified.
MTU, we can continue for a little bit, but I have an early morning coming up and some interruptions via cell phone.
I wonder if “Lost” will be posting soon. Seems “he” makes an appearance around this time.
Sorry, I don’t even know some guy that knows some guy that knows some guy that knows him.
Blake-
If you’re the Cardinals.
You have an offer out to matt.
How long could or should you wait ?
Do the Cards have anything at risk by waiting on Matt ?
Would it make any sense for them to make the offer time-sensitive ?
Any thoughts on any of that ? or thoughts in that vein.
What is the Cards point of view possibly ?
blake, you make a great point about affordability as well as age. True, if Holliday were to come at a great price, then I’d consider it. Problem is, I think there really is a payroll ceiling this year. I think Hal and Hank let Cash get away with 3 major moves last year, but I don’t think they’ll let him do another major signing until they get a better read on the economy. Just a hunch.
Also, yes, Holliday and Crawford would be older next year, but Crawford will be 29 next off-season, younger than Holliday is now. Of course, much could happen like injuries. You also made a point about the artificial surface he plays on now. That’s another reason I feel he will be available, to extend his career. Who wants to play a lifetime on that surface?
I just really think people are taking these Mauer extension talks for granted. As of right now he is a potential free agent and until he signs on the dotted line he is an option
blake or MTU,
What do you do if Mauer hits the market next year?
If I were the Cards, and wanted a quick answer from Holliday, I’d make a run at Bay, and leak it. That would clarify the situation quickly.
However, patience is a virtue here. What’s the rush? The offer is on the table. If Bay signs with the Mets, then the dominos will fall.
MTU, I think the Cards need Holliday much more than the Yankees do. So therefore they will hang in there as long as they can. However, I would say their backup plan may be Bay or possibly Damon and if they wait too long on Holliday then they miss out on one of those if they lose Holliday.
I think the Holliday situation will boil down to how much higher St. Louis is willing to bid. If they have already bid close to their Max then I think the Yanks may swoop in after the market has been set. If they raise the bid considerably then the Yanks will probably bow out.
RS, I wonder if some of the moves the Red Sox made this year were with a mind on next year.
Lackey as a hedge for Beckett at worst. Some money coming off their books will help them do some retooling. Victor will probably hit FA.
Next year, with the Red Sox having more payroll room, the bidding for certain players could get interesting.
I can see them going after Crawford, Werth, Lee, Beckett (probably behind Lee depending on how Beckett pitches this year), Mauer big time if he hits FA (which I doubt). V-Mart might be an early press for them.
When does Ortiz finish his contract? In any event he will be gone once its done, so that means a bat becomes more critical. They also need a catcher and Veratek will be retiring. If Mauer doesn’t hit FA they might have a big hole unfilled in catcher.
“Answer: Because it’s not absolutely necessary. We take some risk for the value.”
That a very reasonable way to look at it. In end most off season moves for the yankees get down to how they want to engineer trade offs in order to stratify risk.
But if one were to follow the line of thinking outlined above, then the team absolutely shouldn’t have signed Mark Teixeira last year.
At this time last year – after the massive outlays on CC and AJ and after having traded for Swisher – who would have been a better player at 1b than Melky will likely be in LF – the yankees had, before signing Tex, a 93 win team (adjusted for AL East play).
That was better than both the Red Sox and Rays looked to be (also not adjusted for AL East play).
Signing Tex made them an 97-98 win team. How is that not overkill, especially when they had Swisher and Nady – both of who projected to be above average at their positions.
This year – right now – the Yankees have a roughly 94 win team.
So last year when they were a 93 win team they had to sign Tex – he was a must have – to replace bump either Nady or Swisher to the bench.
But this year when they have a 94 win team its unreasonable to think of upgrading on Melky because that would be “overkill?”
Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez C/DH tandem in 2011.
You heard it here first.
abda-
Let’s just continue if you like another time.
I dont think “Lost” appears unless he thinks he has something to add.
If he aint here it’s because he’s got nothing for us right now.
I was trying to speculate a little about Matt’s market.
He’s got an offer right now from the Cards.
And the offer does not appear to be time-sensitive so he is not in danger at the moment of having it withdrwawn.
so he has a safety net for the moment (i think). But he hasn’t taken the offer. Why ?
Because the offer is not quite good enough, or because he is considering more than one, because he is still getting used to the idea that he must accept less. Could be those, or something completely different but those would seem to be some obvious ones.
The Cards seem to be very patient.
They must feel either they can afford to loose Matt, or confident that he will accept.
All theory. Wanna try to tear it down or add to it ?
LOL. None of us knows how the Yankee FO values players they’re interested in. That’s what makes this speculation fun! Most of us have little or no idea. Some of us do and share little tidbits every so often. Sometimes we’re right, sometimes we’re wrong, but it’s the shared discourse that’s entertaining, plus the end results when we see how close or far from reality we were.
Lets go,
my gut feeling is that Mauer is going to give the Twins a discount to stay there. However if he does hit the market then the Yankees should have a better read on what Montero is and whether he can stay behind the plate by that time. If Montero can stay as a catcher then they may not need Mauer, if not then I think they are the Yankees and can really afford to sign whoever they want and Holliday isn’t going to affect that.
There are too many if’s involved with the question to affect decisions this year IMO.
CB
In that analysis of 09, how did you factor Wang? Wasn’t his WAR up there?
So you’d sign Holliday to make the Yankees a 97-98 win team?
CB, I see your point, and I’ll consider it. But to do so, can I ask you to do this for me:
Compute the adjusted team wins for every team in the AL East last season, as constructed.
Compute the adjusted team wins for every team in the AL East right now, as comprised.
Thanks.
I agree Blake. I do think that the Cards put out their best offer. They have to also think of extending Pujols and if they sign Holliday that is a lot of their payroll tied up in two players.
I think if I’m the Cards I sit quiet and see what market there is for the other options. If they are getting interest then I move to limit the time for Holliday to say yes or no.
The Cards might bump the offer up a little if the Yankees or another team comes in with an offer that isn’t much higher.
The reason I think the Cards put that offer out there was to set the market and almost dare another team to come in so they could move on or sign him. I don’t think they thought it would drag on this long, and it has to have them getting nervous about their chances. That is exactly what Boras is counting on, though the Cards may not have any more to give to up the offer other than years.
I think SJ44 has said a bunch of times that the Yankees think in AAV, not actual, payroll. The AAV payroll right now, including $6 million to the minimum guys plus Brackman/Miranda, and an estimate of $7 million to the arb guys, is about $183 million. I think they want to keep AAV under $200 million.
—-
Let’s go-
Blake just stole my thoughts.arrest that man !
“In that analysis of 09, how did you factor Wang? Wasn’t his WAR up there?”
In that analysis it tempered Wang’s contribution to the team by assuming he’s only pitch 120 innings. So that projection of them as a 93 win team was conservative, yet still wound up grossly overestimating how good the pitching staff would be because of Wang falling apart and the bull pen going into the year being horrible.
The projection with the yankees as a 94 win team is also tempered e.g. projecting hughes and joba to not throw a ton of innings and only be slightly better than league average.
Signing Holliday would make the team a 97-98 win team heading into the season.
That would make them about as good as they looked to be entering last season – though with less risk as fewer players were coming off injuries.
“But this year when they have a 94 win team its unreasonable to think of upgrading on Melky because that would be “overkill?”
__________________________
I understand the logic, but you can’t say “have a 94 win team” and suggest that carries any weight other than fodder for off-season discussion.
PittsburghYankeeFan
December 20th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
I think SJ44 has said a bunch of times that the Yankees think in AAV, not actual, payroll. The AAV payroll right now, including $6 million to the minimum guys plus Brackman/Miranda, and an estimate of $7 million to the arb guys, is about $183 million. I think they want to keep AAV under $200 million.
———————————————————–
If that’s true, then there should be no problem signing Holliday right now.
My gut tells me that Holliday signs with the Cardinals. Alternatively, I’d sign Damon.
If I were the Metsies, I’d go after him instead of Bay. Alternatively, I’d sign Damon.
But if I were Damon, I’d find a way to sign a 1 year deal with the Yankees.
“Compute the adjusted team wins for every team in the AL East last season, as constructed.”
I can go back and try to look it up, but before the yankees signed Tex they projected to be the best team in the AL East.
“Compute the adjusted team wins for every team in the AL East right now, as comprised.”
I don’t have those projections (not out yet because rosters aren’t finished e.g. no benches for most team) but by a rough estimate I believe the yankees will be projected to win the division as composed right now by no more than a 1-2 games more than they were last year headed into the season.
The team right now isn’t really that far from how it looked to perform last year before they got Tex.
You can say the Yankees are the Yankees so they can afford whoever they want, but I think this offseason has pretty clearly demonstrated that is not how they operate anymore. If they get Holliday this year and then wanted to sign Mauer next year Hal would have to make a huge commitment to increase payroll. Not to mention they would then have nearly every position on the field locked up long term. You also have to factor in the swing Mauer gives to the Red Sox which would be an absolute huge upgrade for them. Finally, even if Montero gets better defensively a C/DH combo of Mauer and Montero is probably best for both of them.
Abda-
I like your take on the possible Cards POV. and i think they might be a little or a lot concerned by now.
The thing that has really changed this year from a dynamic point of view is that the Yankees have self-limited their offers. they aren’t going all out for Matt. if the Cards somehow can know that or sense that then they need not fear us as much.
If this was the Yanks of yesteryear with Big G at the helm this would have been over before it started.
The Yanks must Matt but only at the right price.
I do not even know if they have a competing offer out there yet, are in negotiations with boras, or are only talking in general terms showing interest.
Whatever either team has or may have done it has not yet connected with Matt.
Too bad the Yanks dont want him enough at this point or he already would have been ours.
the End. Of the beginning.
CB,
from reading your posts it sounds like you think that Holliday will make a similar impact on the team as Teixera did last year. If thats true and he will cost roughly 80-100 million dollars less than Teixera, then wouldn’t it make a great deal of sense to sign him?
“Finally, even if Montero gets better defensively a C/DH combo of Mauer and Montero is probably best for both of them.”
That would be amazing, but probably too good to be true.
CB, it seems as if you’re waffling here.
Why would your 2009 projection only give Wang 120 innings?
Why would you not be able to compute other teams as presently constructed? Boston’s team has no holes. What is their projected win total? And the Rays have no holes, so why can’t you show that projection?
Lets go,
I think the Yankees have proven that they are adverse to wasting money and overspending. I think they also proved last year that they are willing to buck that trend for the right player. If Mauer is available then he is that type of player.
Mauer is to the Twins as Jeter is to the Yankees. The guy grew up outside Minneapolis, and wasn’t he football player of the year in Minnesota?
I’d be really, really shocked if he doesn’t sign with the Twins. Look at Halliday–took under market to sign on with the Phillies.
DaSaint,
One other thing – and this gets back to the issue you spelled out very well – before which was risk.
My general sense of things – I should say my own threshold for risk – is that the Yankees should assemble a team each winter that looks like it’ll win 96 games or more in the AL East.
That is an enormously difficult thing to do. But given the competition that’s where I personally set my threshold for risk because that caliber of team will have a few attributes that I think are important:
1. A 96+ win team will be favored to win the AL East.
I say that because it generally is going to take a 96+ win team to win the AL East.
So last year when the team signed Tex and they moved to a 97-98 win team I felt good that they had the best chance to win the division despite all of the experts (traditionalist and sabermetrics) who picked the Sox to win.
2. I’m fairly confident that if a 96+ win team underperforms e.g. injury they will still be able to qualify as the wild card.
If you want to go into battle with this team – that’s fine. You are willing to absorb more risk that I’d like to.
But at the same time you shouldn’t be all that upset if they don’t win the division – or even if they don’t qualify for the wild card if things go sour (e.g. something analgous to Wang getting hurt happens this year) because that’s the borderland they’re at right now.
I don’t think Holliday will be a Yankee unless he’s willing to accept a contract at less than $16-18 million/year. Period. If he does, he becomes a Yankee. If not, he won’t.
I think they will wait to next year for 2 major signings. One for an OF position, either LF or RF, the other for a #3 starter.
Time will tell if I’m right. But anyway, got to go now. Early morning for me, as I have to finalize my business’ budget for 2010 also before the end of this year. And I won’t take the risk of unnecessary spending as I think 2010 will still be a difficult year, so I’m just going to hold the line.
Forget Holliday and wait for Lebron?
I’d be really, really shocked if Mauer doesn’t resign with the Twins. They’re opening a new stadium that will add substantial revenue to their team. Mauer is a local product that is a HUGE, HUGE draw for the team and their new stadium. The Pohlad family is still the richest ownership group in MLB, I believe. I just don’t see how they can let him leave.
If George Steinbrenner was still in charge, we would have had Holliday….umm….two weeks ago. And absolutely no budge talks.
Mauer is to the Twins as Jeter is to the Yankees. The guy grew up outside Minneapolis, and wasn’t he football player of the year in Minnesota?
I’d be really, really shocked if he doesn’t sign with the Twins. Look at Halliday–took under market to sign on with the Phillies.
———————————————————–
Halladay supposedly took under market but do you consider $20 m per under market?
Why do you all want Holliday so badly? His brief stint in the AL was a complete failure. Not that that alone is proof positive of anything, but it was enough to make me lean the other way, especially considering the deal he would likely command. Plus we really don’t need another long-term commitment, especially for a corner outfielder.
Cashman noted that one of the primary reasons he spent so much last year was in anticipation of a weaker FA class this year. He the reiterated this stance, pointing to the relative strength of next years class. If you read between the lines (not that you really even have to), he’s saying he doesn’t want to take on one of those contracts this off-season, and I think thats the right move.
MTU, I doubt the Yankees gave an official offer for Holliday. With the waiting continuing, I think they have floated some ideas to Boras, some interest being shown by the Yanks, but with it being explicit that it can’t be discussed or released to others.
Keeping it a mystery works to the Yankees advantage while having the Cards worrying. Best of a tough market for Boras and Holliday.
Off Topic, I think that TD just sealed the loss for Favre and the Vikings.
RS
December 20th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
“Finally, even if Montero gets better defensively a C/DH combo of Mauer and Montero is probably best for both of them.”
That would be amazing, but probably too good to be true.
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I agree it is not probable, but my point is that people are drawing absolute conclusions that Mauer signs an extension in Minnesota, when at this point it is simply not true.
Signing Holliday, I would imagine completely takes you out of signing Mauer if he were to hit the market.
Giving up the opportunity to sign a player like Mauer who could completely change the landscape of the AL East is something that has to be factored into the Holliday discussions, not matter how unlikely it is that he becomes a free agent.
Is Holliday really that good/important to take that kind of risk? Or really is he really that much better then Crawford or Werth, because you can just sign one of them if Mauer does not hit the market?
I personally do not think so and when Cashman talks about the 2011 free agent class I believe he is including Mauer on that list, because as of right now he IS on that list.
Here’s the thing. If the Yanks signed Holliday and Mauer hit the market next year, I doubt a single advocate of signing Holliday now would be any less zealous in their advocacy of signing Mauer.
The arguments would likely be he fills the Yankees biggest need; he’s a once in a generation player, his “value” would be double because his signing would keep him from the Red Sox; the Yes Network is a goldmine etc.
It’s the same “buy now” mentality that gets people in 5 digit credit card debt with double-digit interest rates, just with someone else’s money.
But hey, let’s ask them?
Just a hypothetical… If you’re advocate signing Holliday this year, would you be reserved to not being in the market for Mauer were he to reach free agency?
Blake/Abda-
The other thought is that Maybe Matt is in the process of deciding on an offer(s) as we speak. some have said that they think it is a very difficult decision for him. a life changing one to be sure.
maybe neither offer blows him away and none is close enough to what he wants to stand out for him.
If the Cards up their offer, or the Yanks jump in maybe he can settle on something.
It’s coming one way or another and i personally believe sooner rather than later.
I think the Cards are just gonna have to move on if Matt doesn’t commit soon. It’s just a hunch.
If we want Matt all cash might have to do is make a move if he hasn’t done so already.
David,
he had a bad month in a bad stadium in a bad lineup. I don’t put too much stock in that. The main reason I’m interested in him is because he is a good player at what I feel like will be a wholesale price compared to what he would cost in other years.
“Why would your 2009 projection only give Wang 120 innings?”
Because he was coming off a season where he suffered a serious injury so the following season it’s a gross overestimate to say he’ll throw 200 innings.
But to your point – if in the 2009 projections you just assumed Wang would be fine and he could throw 200 innings then last year’s team – before signing Tex was a 96 win team in the AL East.
As such there was even less reason to sign Tex.
“Why would you not be able to compute other teams as presently constructed?”
Well, because the rosters aren’t complete – most teams don’t have 25 guys yet.
For example – Tampa Bay’s bull pen is still very undecided.
The yankees are relatively far along in their roster.
I can estimate projections but I really find no pleasure in sitting there and running them myself because that gets close to work rather than fun. And there are so many sources of projections now there’s no point in coming up with your own models and going through the effort.
When they come out for all of the team I’ll let you know. Should be very soon.
Just a hypothetical… If you’re advocate signing Holliday this year, would you be reserved to not being in the market for Mauer were he to reach free agency?
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I’m not a big Holliday guy, but your hypothetical is misguided. The calculation would be that Mauer is unlikely to be available next year; & if by some chance he is, I would have to re-evaluate. You can’t make a decision now based on something that is not likely to occur.
blake
December 20th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
Lets go,
I think the Yankees have proven that they are adverse to wasting money and overspending. I think they also proved last year that they are willing to buck that trend for the right player. If Mauer is available then he is that type of player.
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How did they buck the trend?
They signed Tex and still kept the payroll the same as the year before.
Signing Holliday this year and then Mauer next year means you are looking at probably a minimum $230 million payroll.
With the lux tax factored in I cannot see that happening.
You can’t make a decision now based on something that is not likely to occur.
___________________
I’d argue that what hypothetical questions were invented for.
I happen to believe Mauer will return to the Twins, but it doesn’t mean I can’t entertain the notion that he will not.
blake,
On the whole I would like the team to upgrade what it currently looks to do by 3-4 wins.
There are different ways of doing that – each has different trade offs.
My general sense of it is that if they could squeeze Holliday in on a deal that makes sense (big if…) they should do that as that is the most efficient way of achieving that upgrade both for the near term and intermediate term future.
But in the end if they, for example, signed Damon again for a reasonable deal and added to the rotation I’d be fine with that as well.
Lets go,
Because they spent over 400 million dollars last offseason. That theoretical $230 million wouldn’t all come from Mauer and Holliday. A huge chuck would come from the financial restraint they showed last year.
I think there are factorals and multipliers when you put a great team together. That’s why I was so sure we would win over 100 games last year, even when we got off to the bad start. We get Holliday, we’re gonna win something like 110.
If the Yankees think in terms of AAV, can someone explain why that makes the salary 183 million roughly instead of 191? Not sure how that all computes….
Thanks
lets go yankees,
A couple things on Mauer. I do think he is of tremendous value, but he has already missed some time behind the plate due to his back. People as tall as he is who have back problems are prone to have more. Could that mean less playing time behind the plate given the position? If so, then his bat is still valuable, but not as much a difference maker.
With Holliday in now and for a number of years, the Yankee offense looks solid enough to compete with a club even if they got Mauer.
Would I say he is worth signing anyway? Sure.
Trouble is you can’t plan on skipping signings this year in case a certain player who most in the league believe will not hit FA ends up becoming available.
CB, if the Holliday thing falls through the who would you target to upgrade the rotation?
You can’t make a decision now based on something that is not likely to occur.
___________________
I’d argue that what hypothetical questions were invented for.
I happen to believe Mauer will return to the Twins, but it doesn’t mean I can’t entertain the notion that he will not.
———————————————————–
Fine; I’ll clarify. If Mauer resigns with twins, I’m fine with that. But taking your hypothetical, I’ll sign Mauer next year because I can outspend anyone else; he’s that good. I don’t want any other team to have him. But gain, it’s just a hypothetical which has nothing to do with reality of whether the Yanks should try to sign Holliday.
“We get Holliday, we’re gonna win something like 110.”
I agree with you that there are likely multiplier effects that aren’t captured in context neutral projections (though how those multipliers work is difficult to gues e.g. Cano happening to not be able to hit a lick with men on base in 2009 is a multiplier).
That said, 110 wins would require an absolute lightning in the bottle kind of season.
Even with Holliday they wouldn’t look to be close to a 110 win team.
blake,
Regardless of the gross number they spent last season, they still showed no no desire to increase the yearly payroll. This offseason, they have once again showed no desire to increase the yearly payroll.
Why suddenly in 2011 would they make a long term commitment to not just increase the payroll but guarantee a substantial increase for years to come?
It is not like the Yankees are just throwing darts at a wall and one landed on 200 million. They structure the payroll based on how much revenue they bring and decide what the appropriate percentage of that revenue should go to the payroll.
You really think the Yankees are going to run a team out there with a minimum $230 payroll?
Lets go, if you pass on Holliday this year in hopes that Mauer becomes a free agent next year then are you content with Melky being your long-term LF’er? If not, whats your plan to upgrade the position?
If it were to come down to next year Mauer becomes available, I think I would just help the bidding dollar go up as high as possible to take away the financial freedom for the winner of his services to do anything else big.
There are ways to turn losing out on a great player to an advantage.
blake,
If the holliday thing doesn’t happen (and the chance, IMO, are considerably less than 50-50 it does…) then I would try to wait out Damon and get him on a desperation one year deal.
Then I’d see what sheets would want, though I am torn about that because I would like to see Hughes and Joba start this season.
That’s part of why I think Holliday would be a nice fit. All of the available arms are a real high risk and a higher scoring offense would help steady the transition for Hughes and Joba.
Lets go, I think they could operate much higher than 200 million if they wanted and be just fine. I believe (obviously I don’t know this for sure) that their payroll limitations are more PR related than they are actual monetary restraints. I could be wrong…
Despite what a few said earlier, Damon was not going to be signed as the DH next year. He would have been the primary LF, and obviously would have DH’d quite a bit.
George in Jax, cutting down on Ks and increasing OBP is a lot harder than you make it out to be – those are two big IFs. Melky Mesa sounds like a Rob Deer type, if he’s even good enough for the majors. I don’t like those types of players.
Holliday would be sweet in left next year, but not long-term. That’s Jeter’s spot in ’11 or perhaps ’12.
It must be difficult for Holliday to look at the contract that Tex got last year and not say ‘Hey, I’m just as good as he is, and I’m only going to get 2/3 of his contract?’
Regardless, to answer CB’s point, if we don’t win the division, it’s not because of Melky as our LF. It’s because of our starting rotation or our bullpen, neither of which has been adequately reinforced in my opinion. At least not yet anyway, but thankfully there’s still lots of time.
I would have added Mike Gonzalez to the pen, or at least Darren Oliver. Or, I would find a way to add Houston Street, as he’s a FA next year.
Abdababdaserser,
I agree with the premise that you should not skip on guys for someone who will most likely be locked up long term.
However, Holliday is nothing more then a luxury. For that luxury I am not willing to give up even the 5-10% chance of Mauer hitting the market. If he does hit the market you can not discount the impact he would have on the Red Sox-Yankee dynamic.
Also, lets say Mauer does not hit the market. If the Yankees are absolutely committed to upgrading the OF, they could sign Crawford or Werth. Again, I think it is worth the risk on waiting on Mauer even if you potentially end up with an OF who is slightly worse then Holliday.
Finally on Mauer’s back. I think a C/DH combo of him and Montero would do wonders for both of their health and productivity.
“That’s part of why I think Holliday would be a nice fit. All of the available arms are a real high risk and a higher scoring offense would help steady the transition for Hughes and Joba.”
Totally agree
5 year deal on Crawford? I’ll pass – he’s not worth it and once his legs go, forget it.
Webb? He’s not even proven that he’s healthy.
Beckett? I’m not paying him $18/19 million a year – I don’t want him.
Lee? By far the best option, but man – another $20 million plus pitcher ? He’s not guaranteed to go FA and he may not even want to come to NY.
Having Melky in left could surely cost us the division if Jeter and Posada see declines from last season. Pitching is important, but this notion that its all that matters is just silly.
David
“More generally, concerning Holliday, his tenure on the A’s made the decision for me. I would never risk giving him a 4-5 year deal after that abysmal performance, and I don’t think anything less is very realistic. Our lineup isn’t a problem for us anyway.”
His OPS+ was 120 with the A’s. He just had a really bad April (OPS: .648).
Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez C/DH tandem in 2011.
You heard it here first.
=======================
This would be one of the worst defensive tandems in history. The only one that would be worse is Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez.
Daveinmd
Change names?
Betsy-By the end of this year, we’ll know if Webb is healthy. He’s a great pitcher when he is.
Yeah Rich-I changed names because there is another David posting here and his opinions seem to be different than mine. Don’t want there to be confusion.
Betsy, if it was the Yankees plans to have Damon covering primarily in left then despite signing Johnson, they would have kept up discussions with Damon.
Even Damon had alluded to being primarily a DH during the season and said how that would help keep his legs fresh. He said he looked forward to it.
Its why Hideki was also told that the Yankees had to settle things with Damon first before they could look to him.
Damon wasn’t going to be manning Left even for half of the games.
I’ll sign Mauer next year because I can outspend anyone else; he’s that good. I don’t want any other team to have him. But gain, it’s just a hypothetical which has nothing to do with reality of whether the Yanks should try to sign Holliday.
__________________
Agreed, but what is does do it illustrate that you (and I suspect others with similar positions) are arguing in a consequential vacuum. They are the New York Yankees, so therefore budget is not and should not ever be an real consideration.
I suspect you’d further agree that if they signed Holliday and then Mauer, that were Felix Hernandez to hit free agency in 2011, that Yanks should everything in their power to sign him too.
None of this has anything to do with whether the Yanks should try to sign Holliday.
It has a little to do with how serious to consider the arguments of those who perhaps give lip service to but in fact completely disregard the notion that Yankees payroll should ever have any actual limitation.
Gotcha, Daveinmd
blake
December 20th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Lets go, I think they could operate much higher than 200 million if they wanted and be just fine. I believe (obviously I don’t know this for sure) that their payroll limitations are more PR related than they are actual monetary restraints. I could be wrong…
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The PR stigma of the Yankees spending much more then everyone else went out the window a long time ago. Adding 30 million does not change that. If they were worried about the media backlash they would not have signed the top 3 free agents on the market just last year.
Betsy
I think Lee would love NY, and will probably take Pettitte’s salary slot.
Love the hypothetical analyses. Of course, none of us knows what will happen next year. olliday may sign with St. Louis or the Mets. Cameron may break his leg, forcing boston to trade for Crawford in June and lock him up long term. Sheets could sign with boston, allowing them to trade Bucholz to San Diego with Bard and someone else. Cano could regress causing his average to dip to .270. All are possible, let’s just hope they don’t happen.
night all.
I don’t think Mauer makes it to free agency. I don’t think the Yanks sign him anyhow as long as the Yanks believe Montero will play half his games at catcher. He’ll probably be up in 2011.
We need to keep payroll space open just in case Mauer reaches FA, if only to force the RS to pay him over $30m a year.
CB, You make the singular best case of the off season……You sign Holliday, he locks up leftfield plus he provides excellent coverage for Alex…..The key point here that CB illustrates is that Matt provides more than enough protection vs. injury and allows the club to cut the strings on Joba & Phil….All other oitching options are a risk……Holliday is a perfect fit, and there is a need for him in LF & in the 5 hole…..Forget about future if’s, Crawford, Mauer ( he’s staying in Minn. and will their Gov in about 20 years ) Cliff Lee is the only player to keep an eye on next winter….
CB, I don’t get into (nor do I understand) all calculations you do to arrive at how good the Yanks will be, but if you think we’re only a 94 win team, then does that mean we are a much worse team than last year and that Cash has done a poor job in putting together the 2010 team? I know that’s not what you believe, but isn’t that the only conclusion to come to based on those numbers ? I don’t get that because it doesn’t take into account Matsui and Damon’s age and iffy health. Of course, NJ is no beacon of health himself, but as a DH, that should help him in that regard.
As to the pitching, I know Cash wants to improve it, but Sheets is the ONLY guy out there worth going after…..and I really hate the idea that one of Joba or Phil (undoubtedly Phil) would end up in the pen. I don’t have any faith in Joba at all……I have faith that Phil will pitch to at least a #5, which is fine. Joba? I have no idea. If he’s bad or mediocre in 2010, then our rotation is bad. It really pales right now in comparison to the Sox. I guess I’m all over the place. I think we need another pitcher, but Joba and Phil need to be given a chance to develop.
Betsy, if it was the Yankees plans to have Damon covering primarily in left then despite signing Johnson, they would have kept up discussions with Damon.
Even Damon had alluded to being primarily a DH during the season and said how that would help keep his legs fresh. He said he looked forward to it.
Its why Hideki was also told that the Yankees had to settle things with Damon first before they could look to him.
Damon wasn’t going to be manning Left even for half of the games
——————————————————
ditto
Of course Holliday is a perfect fit. That’s obvious. The only issue is the price and # of years, which could be a major impediment.
lets go… I don’t think signing Holliday would be a luxury. It would be an upgrade that would be of help for years, and as said by CB and agreed to by Blake, it has the additional benefit of giving some extra support to Hughes and Joba as starters.
If Hughes and Joba can be given some time to groove into a starters role, that is of huge benefit to the whole rotation. With that, then Holliday is a bigger asset, and far from being a luxury.
Even if only one of them becomes what we suspect they could become, it seems well worth it to me.
Plus, having a lineup like that helps negate clubs that have good pitching somewhat. It wears down the starters and the bullpen quickly follows.
“Regardless, to answer CB’s point, if we don’t win the division, it’s not because of Melky as our LF. It’s because of our starting rotation or our bullpen, neither of which has been adequately reinforced in my opinion. At least not yet anyway, but thankfully there’s still lots of time.”
I don’t think we know that. The point is that the more you fortify the team, the less likely it is that unexpected contingencies, subpar performances, or age-related declines can derail you.
lets go,
So you believe that 200 million is actually all they can afford financially. Maybe you’re right, I don’t know. Let me be clear, I’m not complaining, they already have the highest payroll in baseball. I’ve never argued that they should sign Holliday if the reason they can’t is that they can’t afford him. I’ve only argued that if it comes down to a baseball decision then they should sign him because he is a perfect fit for what they need.
Holliday fits like a glove, but he’d be another in a long string of long-term contracts. I adore Jeter and Mo, but we are going to be forced into giving them long-term deals at big $$$ – that hurts our flexibility even more, esp. if Hal sticks to his budget. I just don’t see how we could fix any holes that pop up given these conditions.
I don’t feel as good as I should about the Yankees because they are in a peculiar position. IMO, their pitching is mediocre despite winning the WS. Andy is another year older, Joba is Joba and Phil is a #5. They want to win now, so developing the two kids at the same time is probably out of the question……..their staff pales in comparison to the Sox’ and those of other staffs out there. Their position players are old and have out-of-this-world contracts. Their farm system is barren in the upper levels of the minors with the exception of a few good arms.
blake
They could afford to spend $250m. What they are trying to do is to make themselves less of a target for an increase in the Yankee tax in the next CBA.
Jeter will get too many years.
At this point, I think Mo is going to have to play year to year.
I still think that the yanks would be forced to move Swisher if they signed Holliday, for payroll purposes(of course the defense would get a major upgrade).
CB, I don’t get into (nor do I understand) all calculations you do to arrive at how good the Yanks will be, but if you think we’re only a 94 win team, then does that mean we are a much worse team than last year and that Cash has done a poor job in putting together the 2010 team?
_______________
No Betsy. Consider last year’s team was “projected” to win 96-97, not 103.
On December 20th, when rosters are not yet complete, as little weight as such projections actually carry, a 2-3 difference can’t be considered “much” of anything, much less anything of relevance.
blake,
I believe they could afford greater then $200 million. But, now matter how much the Steinbrenner’s talk about winning their main objective is to turn a profit. I believe 200 million allows them to turn the profit that they want to.
Oh well, pushing the rope time has come to a close for me… now I turn into a pumpkin.
G’night all.
Pat M.,
I just think it’s a bit ironic that now – it is almost universally agreed upon by Yankee fans that Tex was a “must signing” last year – when in fact many (if not most…) at this time last year didn’t really feel that way.
And on top of that with Swisher at 1b and Nady in RF the team didn’t even have a spot to put Tex and he was going to be exorbitantly expensive.
But the team right now isn’t looking to be that much better than the team was this time last year before they signed Tex.
The biggest reason for why that is is that the pitching staff this year looks to be good – but last year it looked to be great.
I just don’t see the arms available right now that are going to be worth the money given their risk attached that will be enough of an improvement over hughes and joba to justify the costs.
I guess sheets – but i think it’s not a real good sign that his agent is projecting him back for April yet he still hasn’t thrown for teams. You know the way that works – agents always have injured pitchers back way too soon.
And I really don’t understand the idea that they should pass on Holliday because they can sign Crawford next year. Crawfor is absolutely going to get a 5 year deal which will likely be in the 75M+ range. How is that not a financial burden? And for a player who is not as good as Holliday. And on top of that you have to wait a year in which the core only gets older. I just don’t get it.
I’m not married to them signing Holliday. I’m not saying it’s a must have. But I do think it should be very seriously evaluated and an attempt should be made to talk to him about signing.
If the Yanks sign a rehabbing SP — say Wang or Sheets — that will give them time to see how Phil and Joba do in their starting roles. The weaker of the 2 can be moved to the bullpen when the rehabbing SP is ready.
So, no one here thinks that Holliday’s overrated? Especially at the price he’s bound to command?
Holliday solves a lot of problems—
1. gives us a #5 hitter (which we don’t have)
2. fills the LF position,
3. Eliminates any blackholes in the lineup and provides insurance for any injuries or performance slippages.
4. Makes our offense even more lethal and will allow Hughes/Joba to have even more breathing room when they pitch.
#3 may be the most important. Considering NJ is made of glass, there is real possibility we see Miranda/Melky in the lineup together for a considerable period of time. And if Posada continues to decline or something, we are going to be in trouble.
“I just think it’s a bit ironic that now – it is almost universally agreed upon by Yankee fans that Tex was a “must signing” last year – when in fact many (if not most…) at this time last year didn’t really feel that way.”
If I had to choose between signing CC and Teix, I would have opted for Teix because as a position player his health was/is likely to be more predictable, and because they had developed more ML ready starters than position players.
I don’t feel as good as I should about the Yankees because they are in a peculiar position.
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Betsy, you’re self-aware enough to know for you “feeling good” about the Yankees isn’t an intellectual deduction, but an emotional one having little to do with objective analysis, yes?
CB claims the Yankees project to be a 94 win team right now.
Unless the Red Sox do something drastic, I imagine that 94 win projection will be the best in the AL East and the best in baseball.
Going beyond that I believe is a luxury regardless you are the best team in baseball. You are just hedging your bet to make sure you are the best team in baseball.
All the Yankees have to do is make the playoffs and the team as is projects to be in the playoffs.
m
He’s not overpaid purely in baseball terms. He is only overpaid in comparison with real life occupations.
ARod salary $33 million, AAV $27.5 million (275/10).
Jeter salary $22.6 million, AAV $18.9 Million (189/10).
Swish salary $6.8 million, AAV $5.25 million (26.75/5).
Right there you take off about $10 million differential between actual paid in 10 and AAV.
Here’s my question, though, which has bugged me throughout this whole discussion of “salary consciousness” on the Yankees part.
If they cared so much about salary, why don’t they pawn off Igawa to some NL West team that can use him? A replacement level starter must be worth at least $4 million? That would have been enough for guaranteed $$$ to Wang, correct?
That’s why I am taking all of this budget stuff with a grain of salt.
I really don’t think Cashman cares whether or not Yankee fans want a certain player (Crawford, Beckett, etc.). He will sign whoever he feels gives us the best chance to win within our budget.
90% of Yankees fans wanted no part of Burnett last year. Judging by many of the responses, a large segment of the fans hate the NJ move and wanted back Matsui.
Beckett might be overpaid, but who cares? So is Burnett. Cash openly admitted the impressiveness of the 2010 FA class. I bet he has his eyes on a few of those guys, whether or not the fans do, is not his problem.
“They could afford to spend $250m. What they are trying to do is to make themselves less of a target for an increase in the Yankee tax in the next CBA.”
Brilliant! Agree 100%
The fact that there is even a luxury tax, on top of revenue sharing, is disgusting.
Essentially, the Yankees get punished for being in the most expensive market, and having to overpay to get players.
“If they cared so much about salary, why don’t they pawn off Igawa to some NL West team that can use him? ”
He has cleared waivers. No one wants him.
I just think it’s a bit ironic that now – it is almost universally agreed upon by Yankee fans that Tex was a “must signing” last year – when in fact many (if not most…) at this time last year didn’t really feel that way.
—————————————–
Tex is a much different case then Holliday.
You not only have to factor to swing in wins the Yankees receive from signing Tex last year, but the losses for the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox signed Tex, they would have projected to be the best team in the AL East.
If the Yankees do not sign Holliday, they still project to be the best team in the AL East.
Theo’s a stathead, correct? Do you think that’s why he’s always saying he builds his team to win 95 games, because he does a WAR calculation?
“The point is that the more you fortify the team, the less likely it is that unexpected contingencies, subpar performances, or age-related declines can derail you.”
That’s right. But even more than that, the fact is that acquiring talent in the off season is simply far cheaper than it is in season.
That’s why the team should maximize what it can do and be flexible in the winter to do so within it’s financial framework (which no one outside of the organization know with any certainy…)
Last year at the trade deadline Seattle actually demanded Austin Jackson for Jarrod Washburn. And some yankee fans wanted to do that.
Washburn goes to detroit – the tigers pay washburn roughly 4M, IIRC to complete the season and he is utterly awful for them.
Flash forward to this winter – the yankees make Jackson the centerpiece to a trade for Granderson who detroit decides they can’t pay 5.5M to.
Nicely done by the tigers on spending 4M on Washburn and giving up talent.
The values are much better in the winter. Fortify your team now.
Then who was going to play LF if we re-signed Damon, Melky? We’d still be in the same position……I don’t like Melky as a starter – his #s as a LF would be putrid.
Also, I completely disagree that Holliday would be band-aid for our pitching. We need pitching pretty badly – we always talk about it as being the name of the game, but we don’t have it.
Remember 2008.
We were coming off a season in 2007 where we scored almost 1,000 runs. And in 2008, the offense was a major reason why we missed the playoffs. Everyone declined dramatically from 2007 with the exception of Abreu, perhaps. We were counting on that offense to carry us to the playoffs while our young pitching developed— didn’t work that way.
So it is not like the pitching or bullpen could be our only downfall this year and the offense is a lock to produce like it did in 09.
Hank’s A-Rod signing killed the Yanks in terms of roster/payroll flexibility. Say Alex signed a reasonable deal, one more like Tex’s…maybe $24 million a year. That saves the Yanks 8 million a season. With an extra eight mill, Holliday would be a no-brainer right now.
If they trade Igawa back to a Japanese club, I wonder if his $4 million ML salary goes away against the cap?
Not sure, but trying to think outside the box here…
Cashman’s premature Cano extension was also a mistake…Pedroia signed an extension after a similar season that is worth significantly less in terms of annual value.
The only reason I brought up Mauer because everyone seems to think it is a foregone conclusion he resigns with Minnestota. Yet, none of us know what is really going on there.
By signing Holliday, you definitively cross Mauer off the 2011 free agent class.
That is an opportunity cost that has to be factored into the Holliday discussions.
Given, that he is potentially the most valuable player in baseball because of the position he plays and the impact he could have on the Yankee-Red Sox dynamic, that is a big opportunity cost you are foregoing to sign Holliday.
It does not matter how little chance we think Mauer becomes a FA and it is not something that can be overlooked.
“I don’t get into (nor do I understand) all calculations you do to arrive at how good the Yanks will be, but if you think we’re only a 94 win team, then does that mean we are a much worse team than last year and that Cash has done a poor job in putting together the 2010 team?”
Betsy,
One of the thing fans tend to do is to look at the team from the year before and make implicit assumptions that the season will play out along similar ways and players will tend to perform at a similar level.
But that’s not the way it works. Heading into next season the baseline yankee team for 2010 was always going to tend to be worse than 2009 because so many key player are one year older. This is especially true given that so many had huge years.
This has nothing to do with Cash – it has to do with age.
So part of why the yankees need to improve each year is to make up for the derement in performance and increased risk associated with age.
That’s why the whole idea of melky was ok in 2009 so he’s ok in 2010 is flawed. It implicitly assumes the team around him will be static and perform again at prior levels.
And melky is just an example – I bring him up because LF is clearly the lowest level of expected performance and in turn would produce the most bang for the buck in terms of upgrading.
Too many yankee fans right now are underappreciating how special 2009 was and how many things went close to perfectly e.g. Johnny Damon in his year 36 season having arguably the best offensive year of his career.
So Cash is doing the right thing by not just assuming players are static and bringing back the same team.
Then who was going to play LF if we re-signed Damon, Melky? We’d still be in the same position……I don’t like Melky as a starter – his #s as a LF would be putrid.
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it clear you don’t like Melky in lf. So close your eyes, think that Melky’s still in cf and CG is playing lf. Does that make it better?
Cb-
how do we know the yankees have not talked to Boras about Holliday ?
Maybe they have maybe not.
If they have perhaps their offer is not significant enough, for instance ?
One theory I could envision would be that the Cards offer contains “security” in that their are options years attached.
if holliday is still plying well they are likely to become realized capital I would think.
If the Yanks sticking to a budget have theoretically only Matched or even slightly exceeds the cards 5 year portion but with no 6th year, or options
Then maybe Matt can’t choose at this point because the Yanks haven’t pushed him enough with their financial might.
Boras may see little to loose by waiting under sucha scenario
because he might want one of the two blink so to speak raise their offer.
if neither is willing to change a potential offer then i might come down to things like Holliday’s perception of security, which team he really wishes to be with, or wether a little more money but not as long a term contract is his preferance.
I do not think their would be this much of a wait if the Cards were the only offer out there.
Holliday must have the prospect of another suitor.
Just my theory.
Your numbers analyses are very interesting especially when you try to make inferences based on them.
Thanks for sharing that.
I try to go at it from a more puzzle-solving approach.
i do not think the dealy is likely to go on that much longer.
I think Holliday will decide before Xmas. or mew year’s at the latest.
http://spreadsheets.google.com.....#038;hl=en
The Yankees sit roughly 191 with projected 25 man and assorteds. If the 200 mil cap is true, we may see a Sheets at 8per and call it an offseason.
Thoughts?
CB, Signing Texeria was not a popular option last year at this time…..There a few who pushed for it because of his great talent, and equally important was keeping him from Boston….It was a no brainer on all fronts…Matt Holiday is a very good baseball player regardless of Coors Field and his brief stint in Oakland….I’m guessing most people here haven’t seen him play more than 25 times…He like Granderson will peak in this lineup and in this environment…..I think the Yanks are in on him and are watching the numbers drop….If they drop just a few more ticks, I can see them making a move…It’s time for Hughes & Chamberlain to make their moves….This is what Cashman has been building the organization to achieve, produce your own pitchers, the most valued commodity in Baseball
Considering NJ is made of glass, there is real possibility we see Miranda/Melky in the lineup together for a considerable period of time.
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’09 Yanks saw Cervelli-Cash/Cabrera in the line-up for a pretty considerable time and had one of their best 20 game runs of the year (and there was a fair amount of Pena and Gardner mixed in there too).
Stuckey, I respect CB enormously and he basically said we downgraded a lot………..that’s not such good news. Aside from that, the SP is very iffy. It’s fine for Phil to be a #5, but Andy as #3 (he’s at best a #4) and Joba are shaky. That’s not coming out of pure emotion, that’s what I see as logical thinking and I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I don’t like the pen either except for Mo, Robertson and Marte (and even he’s something of a question mark). Melancon has promise, but he’s hardly to be depended on. Mitre stinks – I hope he’s not on the 25 man roster. I’m down on Aceves……I realize the pen is the last man on the totem pole when it comes to priorities and I understand why Cash would not want to give up picks for middle relievers, but it’s an awfully shaky pen.
I don’t think you mean it to be, but it’s insulting when any negative thoughts I have are always assumed to be because I’m emotional. Not everyone thinks everything is rosy in Yankee-land – they have flaws, like every other team.
Then who was going to play LF if we re-signed Damon, Melky? We’d still be in the same position……I don’t like Melky as a starter – his #s as a LF would be putrid.
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He doesn’t bat “LF”, he bats 9th.
Signing Sheets means right off the bat that one of Hughes/Joba won’t be in the rotation.
Duchester does not mean that. He gives you options considering he can start or relieve and will probably be fairly cheap. He has nowhere near the track record of Sheets, however.
All depends what direction Cash wants to go into. I think, in his heart, Cashman wants to have both kids in the rotation and doesn’t want to keep delaying it. But he also knows what could go wrong (like in 08) and he has no idea if Joba will show up in shape or how Hughes’ learning curve will be as a starter and he wants to have insurance. But I don’t think he wants to guarantee Sheets or someone a spot and deprive one of the kids a spot. He probably wants a good natured competition. Duchester enables you to do that.
Gnight all, maybe something will actually happen in Hot stove land tommorow.
What positions can Corona play?
Agreed. But last year who was going to be the bridge to MO as the season started? Certainly not Hughes. We don’t know for sure until the season plays out. But we do know that Marte, after returning off the DL, was super in the post season.
Cb-
one other thing.
Didn’t say that you believed that any deal that would bring us Holliday that was no more than 120Mill would be good value IYO ?
If you believe then don’t you think that if they Yanks had offered anything like that that this would already be over ?
I wish the Yankees valued Holliday the way you seem to because if they did he would already be ours.
Do us a big favor and go over there and convince them for us. Will you please. You would be the man for the job !
Blake-
It’s over this week one way or another( I hope).
Ok, well I just read CB’s very well thought out post……I really don’t see why Jeter will age or regress. He doesn’t have to hit .334 to have a great year. We’re talking about Jeter, Po, Andy and Mo…….I’ve already talked about Andy. Mo? I know we talk about him like he’s superman, but he’s going to decline eventually. Posada, though, is the player I’d be most concerned about. Now, he was coming off surgery last year, so maybe he can have another good year……let’s massage him through this year and hopefully Monter will be developed enough to see some time at catcher in 2011.
CB, I really appreciate your analysis – thanks for taking the time. Don’t you think that the Yankees are in iffy position for the future given the age of their players and the long-term contracts they’ve locked themselves into? There really is no place to play for youngsters….
Who’s to say Melky will even be as good in 2010 as he was in 2009? That is another assumption.
Betsy-CB is very wrong. We upgraded by a very small amount offensively and by a greater amount defensively. We should be 2 wins better.
MTU,
I really have no idea of what their contact with Boras has been.
What I’d suspect is that they’ve had some form of preliminary conversations saying that they have a budget and they are going to stick with it. And in that budget there is no room for Matt at an AAV of 23M x 7-8 years. If things change with Matt and he wants to consider other contractual arrangements that fit within our existing priorities please let us know and we’d be happy to explore a deal.
I think that’s where things most likely stand if I had to guess.
And the yankees are wainting to see if boras comes back to them to say that yes Matt is willing to explore a deal that makes sense for both your organization and himself.
That may happen and a deal is struck or it may not.
Most people didn’t want Teixeria last year and their rational was that we needed 1B to rotate our aging players like Posada, and because that might eventually be Montero’s position.
And some people thought it was overkill. In reality, it was a necessity.
Who’s to say Melky will even be as good in 2010 as he was in 2009? That is another assumption.
============================================================
but a reaaonable one; a young player on the improve.
Betsy-CB is very wrong. We upgraded by a very small amount offensively and by a greater amount defensively. We should be 2 wins better.
====================================================
right on target.
CB-
Where does this come from ?
AAV of 23M x 7-8 years
Is that the Cards current offer ?
I thought you thought around 120MiLL would be a fair enough offer ?
“By signing Holliday, you definitively cross Mauer off the 2011 free agent class.
That is an opportunity cost that has to be factored into the Holliday discussions. ”
Could be. On the other hand, yankee stadium associated ad revenues for 2010 are already guaranteed to be higher than they were in 2009 – and it’s december.
And that increase in ad revenue is taking place in the middle of an awful economy.
The ability of this franchise to generate revenue is staggering.
The best comparisons aren’t even from baseball – they are from soccer where teams like Man U and Real Madrid can act on massive scales.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.....eID=135723
“Stuckey, I respect CB enormously and he basically said we downgraded a lot………..that’s not such good news.”
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I’m reading along with you and he said they went from a 96-97 win team when the ’09 off-season retooling was essentially complete to 94 today, when the 2010 retooling it not.
Downgraded “a lot” is YOUR characterization, which speaks to my point.
_________
“Aside from that, the SP is very iffy. It’s fine for Phil to be a #5, but Andy as #3 (he’s at best a #4) and Joba are shaky. That’s not coming out of pure emotion, that’s what I see as logical thinking and I’ve been saying this for weeks.”
____________________________
But when presented the fact that the starting pitching is essentially unchanged other than Pettitte is one year older and I think it’s as likely Hughes will serve as a upgrade in the 5 slot, and that the ’09 staff won 103 games and 11-4 in the playoffs, you seem to (in my experience) to ignore that point.
I think even CB would agree but most accurate gauge for future performance is past performance.
I’d also like to know who in the American league besides Boston do you consider to even have a #3 starter?
____________________________
“I don’t think you mean it to be, but it’s insulting when any negative thoughts I have are always assumed to be because I’m emotional. Not everyone thinks everything is rosy in Yankee-land – they have flaws, like every other team.”
________________________________
No argument. Of course they had flaws. As did the Championship 103 win team.
But am I mistaken, or did I or did I not see you worry from spring training through November of last year fairly consistently until the season ended?
I don’t mean to be insulting. I mean to call a duck a duck.
The Yankees were never out of the race, in control of it for the majority of the year and were never seriously challenged, either in the regular or post-season.
But you still struck me as someone constantly “uncomfortable” and has “worries” every step of the way.
My conclusion is that has more to do with you and than it does the New York Yankees.
No one is crying for the Yankees, but remember last year’s payroll was based on an expectation of selling out every game at extraordinarily high ticket prices; that didn’t happen.
“Signing Texeria was not a popular option last year at this time…..”
Pat. M,
He really wasn’t. You were absolutely at the head of the charge. Yourself, m., Wave Your Hat.
I was skeptical until the 2008 season wrapped up due to the potential cost. But after some thinking and looking at some expected performances I was sold that he was an absolute need.
Holliday is a different story – because what’s made him more attractive is the lackluster market for him.
The price has really dropped compared to what Boras was floating.
“Betsy-CB is very wrong. We upgraded by a very small amount offensively and by a greater amount defensively. We should be 2 wins better.”
Really? Ok. Well take a look at what the projections actually say:
“Overall though, the pitching staff looks every bit as valuable as the position players, so this version of the Yankees on paper would look to be about 43.0 WAR in total. Add that to 52 and you get about a 95 win team. Looking at the runs scored (BR) and runs allowed (pitching and defense) and plugging it into Pythagenpat gives us a 94.8 – 67.2 record. In both cases we should subtract 2-3 wins from that to account for the AL East.
While this is encouraging, it makes a few big assumptions.
- Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will be healthy and effective in the rotation all year
- No disastrous injuries in the rest of the pitching staff
- Good health from all the starting position players
- At least replacement level play by the bench”
So given all of the assumptions above the yankees overall project to be an 95 win team which then needs to be adjusted down by 2-3 wins due to comptetition in the AL East/ unbalanced schedule.
That makes the yankees right now around a 92-93 win team.
That projection was done before signing Nick Johnson and he adds another win to the team.
So by the best estimate available right now this is a 93-94 win AL East team.
Which is almost exactly what the team was this week last year before Tex signed.
I’ve tried posting the link to the article I cite in my 12:18 post twice now but it’s getting eaten in the filter.
Please see the replacement level yankee blog from December 16, 2009 and December 12, 2009 for the data.
CB, you think Holliday is still looking for 7/8 years for $23 million and that’s why he hasn’t signed? I can’t see him getting that………
“Where does this come from ?
AAV of 23M x 7-8 years”
MTU,
That has been Boras’s demand for Holliday. Boras has been insisting that Holliday is a Tex level player and deserves a similar contract.
But the market for that level of deal never came close to materializing.
This is part of Holliday’s problem now and what Lost was referring to.
Boras has likely been telling Holliday for years now that he will get a $150M+ plus deal. I’d guess right after Tex signed boras cited that contract as the goal for holliday in 2009.
But it’s never come together so now Holliday has to massively readjust expectations.
Which complicates getting a deal done.
The problem with getting Sheets is that it means Joba/Phil goes to the pen and I think it’s high time we let them develop. If Phil goes to the pen, IMO it will set him back tremendously as a SP. In 2011 he’d have major innings limits, his secondary pitches will have rusted away to nothing due to lack of use and he’d still have to learn how to get through lineups more than once. If I had to pick, I’d rather see Joba in the pen, but I don’t see him losing a ST competition to Phil because Phil is further behind in his development. It’s really vital we start developing these kids and although I have concerns about the rotation and the pen (definitely the pen), I am almost inclined to let the first half play out and see where we stand. The problem is, I’ve had it up to here with other teams at the trading deadline. The Yankees can’t make any trades because every team demands Phil, Montero, Joba…..
Cb-
thanks.
i just wondered where that # came from.
Adjust he will CB, and I hope it is sooner rather than later.
Good night.
CB-RLYW put up a post where they basically showed that Granderson and Johnson were two wins better than Damon and Matsui.
The generation of revenue may be staggering, but Hal is not acting as if it is. He’s got a budget and he’s going to stick to it.
Back after ARod opted out, I believe it was an NYU prof, who was speaking a lot about sports money at the time, in fact, I think they used to have him on YES sometimes. Anyway, before the New Stadium opened and did much better than it would in their wildest dreams, the prof concluded the Yanks could have a payroll of about 400M if they felt like it. Now they could do even more, if they felt like it and it will keep going up as the stadium gets paid now. Anyway, if the new budget talk means they’re going to be pennywise, I’m all for it, but if it means they’re gonna be pound foolish, then they’ve changed objectives and I’m against it.
I took Hal seriously when he said it wiuld depend on the player.
And by the way, the Yankees have always outperformed their Pyth win projections in the era of Mariano Rivera. Unless he declines in a big way, that should stay the same.
“Which is almost exactly what the team was this week last year before Tex signed.”
________________________________
And did those projections account for:
- Alex Rodriquez missing 6 weeks?
- Posada (and Molina) missing about 4?
- Losing Nady for the entire year.
- Losing Marte for most of the year (and being highly ineffective when was was available?
- Chamberlain having a mostly ineffective 2nd half?
- Production from the 5th starter slot that was likely significantly below replacement level?
Seems to me the real ’09 Yanks not only overcame many obstacles that would have downgraded the December 2008 paper Yankee “projection” had they been factored in at the time, but vastly out performed even the best-case scenario projection.
Which to me calls into question the value of said projections.
How much stock can we really put into these projections?
How much error do they account for?
Last season the Yankees projected to be a 98 win team. They won 103. That 5 wins is a huge difference. If you told be at this time last season the Yankees would win 98 games give or take 5 wins that is not something I can put a lot of faith in or base my decisions around. A 93 win team is nothing like a 98 win team and a 98 win team is nothing like a 103 win team.
Given how difficult it is to project one player how can you get an accurate read on the combination of 25 players?
“But when presented the fact that the starting pitching is essentially unchanged other than Pettitte is one year older and I think it’s as likely Hughes will serve as a upgrade in the 5 slot, and that the ‘09 staff won 103 games and 11-4 in the playoffs, you seem to (in my experience) to ignore that point. ”
re the pitching staff. Yes, last year they won 103 games. This year we won’t be able to count on the reliable relief efforts of Chien ming WHAM, Jose Vhere-is-the-strike-zone and Ed-where’s-it-going Ramirez. Phil has another year under his belt plus hopefully the added confidence and learning from his time in the pen. We’ll have a full year of Gaudin, who did decently and hopefully Joba will be motivated to come to camp in shape.
There’s a lot of reasons to think the pitching will be better this year.
“RLYW put up a post where they basically showed that Granderson and Johnson were two wins better than Damon and Matsui.”
Sure. But that’s not the whole team. So you are implicitly not taking factors into account like age related decrements in performance.
You are just assuming what most people tend to do – that the team surrounding the personnel moves is stactic.
Granderson and Johnson are two wins better than Matsui + Damon and as such the team as a whole is two wins better.
That’s completely the wrong way to project a team.
Again I encourage you to actually look at the total team projections from RLYB. SG’s work is outstanding – better than what you find at fangraphs or baseball prospectus.
But you have to look at the entire team together – and that’s the article I cited from December 16. The nick johnson specific upgrade from what miranda looked to do is on December 17.
I’d post the link but it won’t go past the filter.
Stuckey, I misspoke. I wasn’t insulted by what you said at all…….I was talking in general that, overall, my negative evaluations are taken as coming out of emotion instead of rational analysis.
Ok……let’s take the pitching. CC? Stud. AJ? I feel better about him than most. Fine. Andy? Even though he’s a #4 in a #3 spot, I expect he’ll give us about the same level of performance….maybe a little worse, but I wouldn’t imagine much worse. Phil? He’ll be a huge upgrade over Mitre and Gaudin……and he’s got major upside. In other words, he’s hardly the normal #5.
Yes, it’s true that I worry………what I am trying to do here now is plan for every contingency, which I suppose is rather silly. I really don’t worry about Jeter and even though Po is aging, I think he’s still got it in him to have another good year. Tex, Alex, Cano, Granderson, Swish…..it’s still a heck of a lineup. Tex, Cano, Granderson are not old either.
As to the pen, Phil and I have been through that and I stil struggle with my feelings on that (even though I agree with everything he’s said about it).
CB-I see. You are basing what you are saying on the overall projections of decline by some key parts of the team, not the actual moves that have been made. The changes we’ve made put us around 94 wins according to SG. Of course, we aren’t done yet. We don’t know if we are adding another starter or if we are adding bench players. Things are certainly headed in the right direction.
“It does not matter how little chance we think Mauer becomes a FA”
Sure it matters. That’s how they as-sess the risk.
“How much stock can we really put into these projections?”
It’s just an estimate – it’s not a forecast like the weather.
But it’s the best estimate we have right now.
Take a look and then think for yourself.
In general I’ve found that projections tend to overestimate how good any team is because the models can’t adquately account for risk.
So there was no way in December of 2008 last year to know that ARod’s hip would give out.
There was no way that Nady would become the first position player in the bigs to ever require a redo TJ proceduure.
And that was the whole entire point of signing Tex. They truly didn’t “need him” by the numbers. But he was essentially a must have because of the need for the team to stratify risk.
And using the same exact methods and the same exact models the team last looked to win nearly the same amount of games before signing tex as it does this year.
And with an aging core there is still significant risk.
Someone before mentioned how the yankees traditionally outperform their pythagorean record due to Mo. And that’s generally true.
But guess what – MO is 40. And counting on the idea that you will simply continue to outperform your pythagorean record based on the performance of a 40 year old isn’t a particularly robust assumption.
So in general, my personal take is to look at the projection and they build the team up so that it can withstand the unpredictable yet inevitable tumult that is a 162 game season.
And right now the team isn’t there.
The only real option if we want to keep Phil/Joba in the rotation is to sign Deutscherer…….
I will say this……the upside on Joba and Phil is enormous. If they even begin to live up to their potential, the rotation would be very strong.
“But you have to look at the entire team together”
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CB, exactly when is it proper to look at the entire team together and when it is not?
I seem to recall a cited study discounting the methodology of looking at a line-up at a whole and suggested having a positional player below replacement was a detriment independent of relative production at other positions?
Did I misremember?
The Yankees who’ve won 27 so far tend to win their championships in bunches. The `32 championship is considered a “stand alone” it still had Ruth and Gehrig, and Dickey and Lazzeri from the `28 team, etc. Anyway, when we win em, we win em in bunches. I think we’ll probably win a few here, even though the core 4 are getting up there.
Nick in SF at SFO
December 21st, 2009 at 12:40 am
“It does not matter how little chance we think Mauer becomes a FA”
Sure it matters. That’s how they as-sess the risk.
*********
Stop trying to use crude words and trick the filters!!!
Nick in SF…..You’re making your Christmas trip to Charolette, you have to go to Rusans for Sushi…You flying US Air ??? Red Eye, sleep well and safe travels….
Just because it is the best estimate we have does not mean there is any reason to put any stock in it.
UZR is the best estimate we have for defense, but you have incessantly bashed UZR as being wholly worthless.
I looked at the projections, and offensively they look brutal
AROD is projected to be at a 4 WAR. He missed 6 weeks last year and still finished the season at 4.4
Derek Jeter is projected at 2.5 WAR. Last year he was a 7.4 WAR player. Even in his worst years defensively he has never been close to a 2.5 WAR player.
Cano is at a 3 WAR. Last season he was a 4.4 WAR player and all indications point to him continuing to improve offensively and defensively.
It has Swisher at a 1.6 WAR. Nick Swisher is going to turn into Melky Cabrera next season?
Granderson is at a 3.1 WAR. Last year in his absolute worst season he was a 3.4 WAR player. Do you really think Granderson is going to get worse next season? Coming to YS, you would think he gets substantially better.
These projections seem incredibly inaccurate in regard to the offense. I do not know how you could possibly project AROD and Jeter to combine for a 6.5 WAR.
Even worse, red eye through Philly… suckers. They can as-sess the risk of letting Pedro pitch to Godzilla is their nightmares.
It seems to me the projections are bending over backwards to be negative. Alex will not miss a month of the season, for one, and why is it assumed Jeter will regress? Cano might improve…might not. He’s a very talented player with major limitations…..but I would at least expect a similiar year. Tex? Similar year – hes not old. I definitely expect Granderson to be better – he’s not a .249 hitter.
Nick in SF at SFO
December 21st, 2009 at 12:56 am
Even worse, red eye through Philly… suckers. They can as-sess the risk of letting Pedro pitch to Godzilla is their nightmares.
******
Gee Nick, you showed me
On that note, have a wonderful trip and Good night Yankee people!!!!
“Anyway, before the New Stadium opened and did much better than it would in their wildest dreams, the prof concluded the Yanks could have a payroll of about 400M if they felt like it. Now they could do even more, if they felt like it and it will keep going up as the stadium gets paid now.”
The Yankees estimated revenues for 2009 in the new stadium were projected to be $375M.
But then the worst recession since the great depression hit.
And the yankees OUTPERFORMED expectations and generated revenues of $450-500M.
That’s right – due to making the post season and winning the series the yankees increased revenue in 2009 by 20-33% – during a horrific economic climate and in year one of a stadium in which they mispriced luxury seats.
And that revenue does not even include the Yes Network.
People talking about the yankees “budget” and what they can and can’t do are deluding themselves.
The yankees are a privately held company that doesn’t have to make its books public. But what we can glean their revenue is staggering.
And if they did want to have a $400M payroll they very well could pull it off.
“The Yankees’ charge through the playoffs and into their first World Series in six seasons will help drive a double-digit revenue gain, estimates Michael Ozanian, national editor at Forbes magazine. The return of the 26-time World Series champion to baseball’s biggest stage should help boost revenue by 20% to 33% to $450 million-$500 million this year from $375 million last year, he says.”
The link is from USA today on Oct 29, 2009 – wont go through the filter.
“Ok……let’s take the pitching. CC? Stud. AJ? I feel better about him than most. Fine. Andy? Even though he’s a #4 in a #3 spot, I expect he’ll give us about the same level of performance….maybe a little worse, but I wouldn’t imagine much worse.”
________________________
For sake of healthy exchange, how do you define a #3 or a #4?
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“Phil? He’ll be a huge upgrade over Mitre and Gaudin……and he’s got major upside. In other words, he’s hardly the normal #5.”
______________________
Then let’s just say Pettitte declines somewhat, Chamberlain evens out (though I think we both hope he can do better than that) and as you describe it, Hughes is a huge upgrade.
Are YOU in fact then arguing the starting pitching is no worse than and likely ahead of the ’09 staff?
And given what we know about ’09, can’t that be checked off of your list of question marks? (other than the question marks ALL teams face, like injury and unpredictable decline?)
Thank you, Erica. You can as-sess my risk anytime.
‘Night!
It seems to me the projections are bending over backwards to be negative. Alex will not miss a month of the season, for one, and why is it assumed Jeter will regress? Cano might improve…might not. He’s a very talented player with major limitations…..but I would at least expect a similiar year. Tex? Similar year – hes not old. I definitely expect Granderson to be better – he’s not a .249 hitter.
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Welcome back to the “light” side Betsy.
Betsy – high on pie
December 21st, 2009 at 12:34 am
Andy? Even though he’s a #4 in a #3 spot, I expect he’ll give us about the same level of performance….maybe a little worse, but I wouldn’t imagine much worse.
———————————————————-
Sorry Betsy, but on behalf of Andy Pettitte, I have to take exception to this comment. How is Andy Pettitte not a number 3? According to ESPN.COM’s Depth Charts, here are the current #3s for every other team in baseball. How many of these pitchers would you rather have starting for you in place of Andy Pettitte?
Ariz: Edwin Jackson
Atlanta: Jair Jurrjens
Balt: Jason Berken
Boston: John Lackey
Chicago NL: Ryan Dempster
Chicago AL: Gavin Floyd
Cincinatti: Bronson Arroyo
Cleveland: Fausto Carmono
Colorado: Aaron Cook
Detroit: Jeremy Bonderman
Florida: Anibal Sanchez
Houston: Brian Moehler
Kansas City: Luke Hochevar
LA Angels: Joe Saunders
LA Dodgers: Hiroki Kuroda
Milwaukee: Randy Wolf
Minnesota: Carl Pavano
NY Mets: John Maine
Oakland: Vin Mazzaro
Philadelphia: Joe Blanton
Pittsburgh: Ross Ohlendorf
San Diego: Clayton Richard
San Franciso: Barry Zito
Seattle: Ryan Rowland-Smith
St. Louis: Kyle Lohse
Tampa Bay: Jeff Niemann
Texas: Scott Feldman
Toronto: Brett Cecil
Washington: Craig Stammen
NY Mets:
“Alex will not miss a month of the season”
How do we know this? Anyone can get hurt, there are no projections for that. Our team, because of its age, has a higher likelihood of sustaining injuries. Right off the bat, our DH is an enormous injury risk considering he has been on the DL 10 straight years.
People talking about the yankees “budget” and what they can and can’t do are deluding themselves.
___________________________________
Not if you actually define “budget” with it’s literal meaning.
“Budget” doesn’t mean some line defining positive or negative revenue. It means a prescribed amount of spending as determined by the people in charge of said spending.
“Budget” is independent of profitability.
So when people advocate certain spending on the notion that the Yankees DON’T have a budget, what they are really arguing is that the Yankees SHOULDN’T have a budget, which is an altogether different argument.
I tend not to let my personal philosophical beliefs factor into a pragmatic discussion.
Hey I got filtered!
“Our team, because of its age, has a higher likelihood of sustaining injuries.”
_______________________
You mean the team that ranks in the middle of the curve at 14th of 30 clubs, that is the 3rd youngest of the 8 teams that qualified for the post-season last in 2009?
THAT one?
People talking about the yankees “budget” and what they can and can’t do are deluding themselves.
___________________________________
Not if you actually define “budget” with it’s literal meaning.
“Budget” doesn’t mean some line defining positive or negative revenue. It means a prescribed amount of spending as determined by the people in charge of said spending.
“Budget” is independent of profitability.
So when people advocate certain spending on the notion that the Yankees DON’T have a budget, what they are really arguing is that the Yankees SHOULDN’T have a budget, which is an altogether different argument.
I tend not to let my personal philosophical beliefs factor into a pragmatic discussion.
====================================================
wow, well put; but it’s fair to say that the Yanks are in a position, than any other team, to exceed their budget when the right situation occurs.
Does anyone actually think Derek Jeter is a 2.5 WAR player in 2010 AKA one of the worst SS in baseball?
stuckey,
Unless those stats are for everyday lineups, they are pretty useless.
Does it matter that Pena, Gardner, Coke, Bruney, etc. lower the average age?
Does anyone actually think Derek Jeter is a 2.5 WAR player in 2010 AKA one of the worst SS in baseball?
==================================================
no, what we’re discovering is how silly some of these stats are.
A-Rod is a former steroid user— take that into account before thinking he is going to be some kind of iron man in the future for us.
“no, what we’re discovering is how silly some of these stats are.”
We?
“Just because it is the best estimate we have does not mean there is any reason to put any stock in it.”
Huh?
“Derek Jeter is projected at 2.5 WAR. Last year he was a 7.4 WAR player. Even in his worst years defensively he has never been close to a 2.5 WAR player.”
No. Your mixing projections systems that have different methods and scales.
It’s difficult to compare those estimates from RLYB to fangraphs – most notably because fangraphs relies only on UZR data for defensive value while SG models defense using both zone rating and UZR. Also, the estimates for pitching will be different due to the fact that fangraphs only uses FIP and RLYB uses ERA (and ERA is in IMO the much more valid way of calculating WAR for pitchers…).
On the whole the differences in the models isn’t as important as their internal consistency and differences across years.
Jeter in 2009 had one of the 3 best years of his career. He is going to regress.
And I can tell you from the standpoint of statistics – the work at RLYB is very well done.
some of the other absurd stats we’ve covered in the last day is that Gardner has one of the best OF arms in baseball, or that Swisher had a better year that Abreu or Markakis.
When you’re faced with those types of conclusions, you realize that the stat is less than reliable.
akam,
what’s your proof that any of that stuff is wrong?
Thanks for the laugh.
lets go yankees & myself are at lest 2 of the “we”s
“Does anyone actually think Derek Jeter is a 2.5 WAR player in 2010 AKA one of the worst SS in baseball?”
Projections systems generally use the 3 prior years of data.
Jeter’s 2010 projections are dampened by the fact that his defense in 2007 was statistically awful – that counts in the model – and by his complete loss of power in 2008.
Now its likely that both of those factors were the result of injury – but that’s they way the models work.
2009 was literally one of the very best years Jeter every had and it came out of the blue.
Given his age and recent history I wouldn’t be overly confident what he’ll do next year.
Again, it’s very easy to be biased by the players performance the year prior.
I remember very well before the start of 2009 how the most common topic of discussion regarding Jeter was how they needed to get him off of SS and moved to the OF. So anecdotal expectations for Jeter were very poor going into 2009.
And your seeing the variance in performance along with age related decrement factored in account for Jeter’s projection in 2010.
Also, Jeter is now entering a stage of his career for which there are very few comparables at his position in the history of the game so there’s a great deal of variance in how he might perform.
“Does anyone actually think Derek Jeter is a 2.5 WAR player in 2010 AKA one of the worst SS in baseball?”
By the way, you do know its these context neutral, linear weight models that form much of the evidence you were citing the other day for how great Nick Swisher is, don’t you?
wOBA for instance is based on these exact sorts of methods for example.
akamgkrebs
Why don’t you (or one of your we’s) post a factual rebuttal of each stat you have a problem with, citing examples to prove how absurd each is?
My guess is that you are a AVG rules kind of guy.
Saw this on Pete’s latest post about how much the Red Sox love and value Lowell. Does this even make sense?:
“If you factored in the # of times Lowell counted as 2 outs in an inning, his average would be .220 and not .280.”
“lets go yankees & myself are at lest 2 of the “we”s”
“some of the other absurd stats we’ve covered in the last day is that Gardner has one of the best OF arms in baseball, or that Swisher had a better year that Abreu or Markakis.”
let’s go yankees was the one who was arguing that Swisher had a better year last year than Abreu or Markakis.
He started that discussion.
Not sure how strong your coalition is there.
I’ll trust my lying eyes when it comes to the Jeter,Gardner & Swisher examples. As for Swisher, his batting stats, with the exception of BA was average for the full time AL RFs in 2009. The BA was last. He is, charitably, worse than the average fielder.
Consider the facts that Abreu has more hits, stole 30 bases, struck out less, batted 43 pts. higher, had a higher OPS had an OBP 33 pts higher than Swisher for starts. Add to this, that despite the fact that Swisher hit 29 HRs to 15 for Abreu, Bobby has 12 more runs scored and 21 more RBI. And if you don’t think that Abreu is a far better fielder & has a better arm than Swisher, I’m sorry I don’t have a stat to prove it; iy’s sort of a self-evident truth.
can anybody tell me how these rating systems have done in past performance? most of them have been around a few years at least, so someone should be tracking how thier predictions compare to actual results shouldnt they?
Oops, that was written in the comments section, not by Pete.
CB,
I really disagree with you on where the Yankees are now compared to where they were before they signed Teixeira. They had Posada and Matsui coming back from serious, season ending injuries. Jeter had a down year and people were speculating that it was the beginning of his end. Cano was terrible in 2008. Swisher was coming off a season where he hit .219. Xavier Nady wasn’t good in his time with the Yankees and Melky Cabrera had gotten worse instead of better.
Cano, Jeter, Posada, Swisher, all had big bounce back years that at least makes me more confident in what they are going to do next season than I did going into last season. Having Granderson in centerfield is a big upgrade and obviously, now they’ve got Teixeira.
Wang was the biggest advantage that the pre-Teixeira team had over what the Yankees have now. Still, I’d say that Joba and Hughes are better than they were going into last season, and I don’t think you can say that CC or Burnett have started to get worse yet. Pettitte is the only guy you expect to regress at all.
I know I keep saying this, but the Yankees don’t need Holliday, Carl Crawford, or any other expensive bat in LF. There will always be talented offensive players available on short term deals to play LF. same with DH. I think Cashman has decided if you want to play LF or DH for the Yankees you need to take a short term deal. And if the Yankees need a bat midseason, LF and DH are the easiest positions to find one.
Unless those stats are for everyday lineups, they are pretty useless.
Does it matter that Pena, Gardner, Coke, Bruney, etc. lower the average age?
___________________________
Posada, Jeter, (I’ll give you) Rodriquez. Pettitte in the rotation, Rivera in the pen.
Do you think that really puts the Yanks on some steep injury curve?
In the final analysis, You have to trust your eyes
as far as the ratings for arm strength, why is the assumption that the stat is accurate? Based on wha? Some of the stats stand the test of time- the traditional rbi, ba, runs(triple crown); others have been found to be good indicators, ie OPB, OPS. But to assume the reliability of a stat category without it withstanding the scrutiny of some time is absurd. When the stat tells me that Gardner has the 5th best OF arm in baseball, it’s already shown to be unreliable.
akamgkrebs
You thought Jeter was a good defensive SS from 2005-2007? If so, why did the Yankees ask him to pay more attention to scouting reports and why did he start to pay more attention to conditioning drills that focused on lateral quickness? I’ll tell you why. Both the Yankees and Jeter realized that his range had declind.
Abreu’s 2009 OPS was .825
Swisher’s 2009 OPS was 869
So I’m not sure what you are talking about.
Pat M
“In the final analysis, You have to trust your eyes”
I can tell you from experience that in the courtroom, eye witness testimony is often less reliable than circumstantial evidence.
Why? We all bring biases that color our perception. We are susceptible to selection bias. Our experiences color our observations.
There were only a handful of people who argued that we must get Tex last season. I even argued that AJ + Tex was the best solution because I foolishly bought into the budget talk.
When AJ & CC were signed, there was a flicker of hope that the Yankees would sign Tex. And all I really had to go on is that Tex wanted to be a Yankee. How silly was that?! A whole lot went right, but Tex kind of sorta led himself to the Yankees. Of course, he did this knowing that Cash had asked for last right of refusal.
Is Holliday more of a necessity than Tex was last season? Hard to say. We had 1B covered with Swisher. This year we have LF covered with Cabrera. Swisher was coming off of a horrible season and was a relatively huge gamble on Cash’s part.
LF is a bigger hole this season with Cabrera in it than 1B was last season with Swisher holding the spot.
But I think the biggest factor is that Tex was a player you break the bank for (or bust out the proverbial checkbook for). Is Holliday the kind of player you go over your line of credit for?
Anyway, you guys are having a great discussion on Tex vs. Holliday.
but it’s fair to say that the Yanks are in a position, than any other team, to exceed their budget when the right situation occurs.
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That’s the assumption, but it’s still by nature a subjective argument. It assumes the intent and conviction of the relevant party. That their conviction is pliant.
And needless to say, what defines a “right situation” is even more subjective that that.
I think many people are assuming the Yankees intend to generate a certain level of net profit in 2010. That their “budget” is their means to assure themselves of being in the black $10, $20, $30 million MORE than they would otherwise.
Like anyone else, I have no insight in the organizations actual bottom line, but that’s strikes as assuming their budget is based on a rather arbitrary premise.
There could be factors beyond our understanding as to why the number is what it is. So I tend not to assume it’s as soft as some others assume it to be.
Rich in NJ…..It may come down to the credibility of the witness and thier eyesight……..Your comment reminded me of the great movie ” My Cousin Vinny ‘….
You thought Jeter was a good defensive SS from 2005-2007? If so, why did the Yankees ask him to pay more attention to scouting reports and why did he start to pay more attention to conditioning drills that focused on lateral quickness? I’ll tell you why. Both the Yankees and Jeter realized that his range had declind.
Abreu’s 2009 OPS was .825
Swisher’s 2009 OPS was 869
So I’m not sure what you are talking about.
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sorry about the ops; I read the line for career. But the number is not really important, in this situation. The OPS is a combination of OBS & Slug Pct. The Slug pct is based on extra base hits, with particular emphasis on HR. As I pointed out, in this instance, it’s negated by the fact that Abreu scored more runs & had more RBIs, which, in effect, is what a HR is. As a matter of fact, it’s pretty remarkable that Swisher had 29 HRs to Abreus 15, yet Abreu has 12 more runs scored and 21 more rbi. So much for putting faith in a particular stat with blinders on.
As for Jeter, I never said a word about Jeter’s defense in 2005-2007. But I will say, that I thought that Jeter was shading to his right to compensate for A-Rod’s lack of movement and that’s why he was perceived as having limited range to his left(sorry if that offends all of you who put all that stock in those defensive range stats). In 2009, he moved over to the left a bit, which started when A-Rod wasn’t playing 3rd, which I guess is included in “changing his angle of approach” which was another term being bandied about. When A-Rod returned, he showed more movment to his left than he’d shown in his previous years with the Yanks,which enabled Jeter to continue to play a normal SS position. Sorry, there’s no stat for this, just what I see.
i question the validity of these rating systems. if my memory serves me well (and it often doesn’t) going into last season most of these systems projected the yankees as an 93-97 win team. they won 103. now that would seem to mean that they were off by about 13%, but if you consider that every team is going to win 60 (the nats won 59) and subtract that from an average projection of 91 wins, then a season of 103 wins indicates that that average projection missed by 23%, which is enough to invalidate the entire process of picking division winners and wild card teams.
id like to see some validation that these systems hold any water whatsoever before i’d put any stock in them at all.
sorry an average projection of 95 i meant.
LF is a bigger hole this season with Cabrera in it than 1B was last season with Swisher holding the spot.
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How could that possibly be?
Last year Cabrera was already penciled into the line-up coming off a terrible year AND Swisher was penciled in the line-up as you correctly put it, coming off a terrible year.
And the team was coming off a year they didn’t make the play-offs.
1B was a FAR bigger question mark last year, because the line-up was weaker overall.
THIS year the line-up projects to be in the neighborhood of the ’09 team that led the league in runs by a large margin and won the WS.
Once again, LF only plays weaker by statistical irrelevance. That an average LF produces greater offense than the Yankees left fielder.
But the avg MLB left fielder doesn’t bat 9th. On most teams, the SS, 2B, or C does (8th on NL teams of course). That Yankee left fielder just so happens to.
The gambles that Cash is taking really sheds light on how good a job he’s done assembling this team. He doesn’t HAVE to make any particular move. He didn’t HAVE to be in on Tex, and very nearly let him go to Boston. He doesn’t HAVE to be in on Holliday. He’s in a position to sit back and let the best choices present themselves.
Would they want Holliday? I imagine they would. But not for what he wants. Once again, all these players (with the exception of Andy) need the Yankees more than the Yankees need them. We’ll see what kind of concessions players are willing to make.
Otherwise, we’ll go into battle with melky, joba, and hughes. And we’ll very likely still be playing in October.
Rich in NJ…..It may come down to the credibility of the witness and thier eyesight……..Your comment reminded me of the great movie ” My Cousin Vinny
============================================================
Do we need every OF to take a test, with radar guns, measuring for distance and accuracy, to conclude that Gardner doesn’t have one of the best OF arms in baseball, and to conclude that the stat is nuts?
That’s not how a scientific system works. We don’t just assume that a theory is accurate; we look for trials & evidence to prove the validity; not the opposite.
i question the validity of these rating systems. if my memory serves me well (and it often doesn’t) going into last season most of these systems projected the yankees as an 93-97 win team. they won 103. now that would seem to mean that they were off by about 13%, but if you consider that every team is going to win 60 (the nats won 59) and subtract that from an average projection of 91 wins, then a season of 103 wins indicates that that average projection missed by 23%, which is enough to invalidate the entire process of picking division winners and wild card teams.
id like to see some validation that these systems hold any water whatsoever before i’d put any stock in them at all.
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welcome to the growing “We”
Let’s just say that I think swisher’s a better hitter than melky. So, I’m not really talking about the position per se, as the much as the personnel.
I would feel better about Swisher’s production at 1B last season (even after his off year), than with melky’s production in LF.
I would’ve been fine with Swisher at 1B last season, but I would rather upgrade LF this season. Too confusing? Yeah, me, too.
or maybe, “Baseball Mythbusters”
m
I agree with everything you said except for the necessity to sign Teix. I thought that he was a must have because their core of position players was/is aging and they aren’t producing the ML ready position players to supplant or at least compliment them. Similarly, defense has not been a team strength, and Teix is a plus defender. Couple that with the way he would have shifted the balance of power in the division if he had signed with the RS, and I thought he was the most critical signing of the last offseason.
m, you make perfect sense….
may very well be. But take into consideration their defensive abilities, as well as their potential upsides and then make a judgment. Also add in the relative size of their contracts.
akamgkrebs
December 21st, 2009 at 2:17 am
sorry about the ops; I read the line for career. But the number is not really important, in this situation. The OPS is a combination of OBS & Slug Pct. The Slug pct is based on extra base hits, with particular emphasis on HR. As I pointed out, in this instance, it’s negated by the fact that Abreu scored more runs & had more RBIs, which, in effect, is what a HR is.
***As a matter of fact, it’s pretty remarkable that Swisher had 29 HRs to Abreus 15, yet Abreu has 12 more runs scored and 21 more rbi. So much for putting faith in a particular stat with blinders on.***
As for Jeter, I never said a word about Jeter’s defense in 2005-2007. But I will say, that I thought that Jeter was shading to his right to compensate for A-Rod’s lack of movement and that’s why he was perceived as having limited range to his left(sorry if that offends all of you who put all that stock in those defensive range stats). In 2009, he moved over to the left a bit, which started when A-Rod wasn’t playing 3rd, which I guess is included in “changing his angle of approach” which was another term being bandied about. When A-Rod returned, he showed more movment to his left than he’d shown in his previous years with the Yanks,which enabled Jeter to continue to play a normal SS position. Sorry, there’s no stat for this, just what I see.
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The fact that Abreu batted 2nd or 3rd and Swisher batted 6th or 8th wouldn’t have had any affect of Swisher’s lower runs scored and RBI, would it?
Pretty weak arguement/comparison.
For those that knock Cabrera’s season, name the better #8 or #9 hitters in either league.
akamgkrebs
“Your comment reminded me of the great movie ” My Cousin Vinny”
Fortunately, unlike Vinny, I passed the bar on my first attempt. If you want to see some stressed out people, sit in a hotel ballroom with hundreds of recent law school graduates who are about to take a two day, six hours a day, exam. Good times.
On topic, I don’t see the harm in gathering as much info as possible before making any decision, be it in baseball or outside it. No one is saying that observation should be eliminated, but if you take a closer look at advanced metrics, you might be surprised at how often they dovetail with what we see with our own eyes.
“As for Jeter, I never said a word about Jeter’s defense in 2005-2007. But I will say, that I thought that Jeter was shading to his right to compensate for A-Rod’s lack of movement and that’s why he was perceived as having limited range to his left(sorry if that offends all of you who put all that stock in those defensive range stats).”
I have actually thought that A-Rod’s ability to move to his left aided Jeter’s range (with the exception of last season).
good call gb7. people get all hung up on this position by position thing and lose sight of the fact that he’s a good fielder and way above average at his spot in the order. the normal batting spots for LF’s (maybe 1st through 5th) are already taken by our above average C, 1b, 2b, ss, and 3b people. compare him defensivly against LF’s, sure, but compare his spot in the order and he’s more than adequate.
The fact that Abreu batted 2nd or 3rd and Swisher batted 6th or 8th wouldn’t have had any affect of Swisher’s lower runs scored and RBI, would it?
Pretty weak arguement/comparison.
For those that knock Cabrera’s season, name the better #8 or #9 hitters in either league.
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may have had affect on runs, but Swisher was in a better position to drive in runs. Regardless, the disparity between HRs, when compared to Runs & RBI is striking and leads me to think that Swisher was far less productive that the 29 HRs indicate, a reasonable conclusion based on the entirety of the evidence.
As for Melky, you’re right, so we can agree on something.
Teixeira’s range and agility at first base had much to do with the way the rest of the infield aligned it’s self on defense. The pitching staff, for the most part was a control/power staff, so there were fewer mistakes made with the infield alignment.
lol, Pat M. I’m making sense because you’ve been knocking back the screwdrivers.
Rich,
You, I, Pat M., we all knew that. But Cash painted a very different picture. He made it sound like they had a very small window of opportunity, took it to Hal, and got the okay to go for it. What if Lucifer didn’t pizz off Tex? What if the Red Sox went all in and guaranteed more years? From what I understand, Cash lay in the weeds (knowing of course, that he had a handshake agreement for the last call). That doesn’t sound like they HAD to get him. Like they HAD to get CC. He had his bases covered (with Swish), and when the opportunity came up they swooped in. But it was a gamble, all the same.
akamgkrebs
December 21st, 2009 at 2:40 am
The fact that Abreu batted 2nd or 3rd and Swisher batted 6th or 8th wouldn’t have had any affect of Swisher’s lower runs scored and RBI, would it?
Pretty weak arguement/comparison.
For those that knock Cabrera’s season, name the better #8 or #9 hitters in either league.
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may have had affect on runs, but Swisher was in a better position to drive in runs. Regardless, the disparity between HRs, when compared to Runs & RBI is striking and leads me to think that Swisher was far less productive that the 29 HRs indicate, a reasonable conclusion based on the entirety of the evidence.
As for Melky, you’re right, so we can agree on something.
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With Matsui, Posada and Cano hitting almost 80 homers and knocking in about 260 runs in front of him, Swisher did pretty well knocking in the runs. His biggest issue was consistancy. When he’s hot, there’s very few pitchers that can get him out, and when he’s cold, everybody gets him out. He has long streaks of hot and cold….nothing in between. Much like Matsui in that respect.
GB, Good to see you old buddy, kinda getting a bit concerned….Did they spriing you yet ??? My point is about trusting my eyes, is that I can tell the difference between a A player and a B player, I have always believed that stats support a player’s worth and not dictates it…..As for Melky, he is the best # 8-9 hitter around…My issue with obtaining Holliday is to be slotted in the 5 hole as I have issues as to who can protect Alex…I thought Cano would evolve into that role, however there’s a concern about him in that role…….
Ham Fighters laughing at all the melky haters
December 21st, 2009 at 2:39 am
good call gb7. people get all hung up on this position by position thing and lose sight of the fact that he’s a good fielder and way above average at his spot in the order. the normal batting spots for LF’s (maybe 1st through 5th) are already taken by our above average C, 1b, 2b, ss, and 3b people. compare him defensivly against LF’s, sure, but compare his spot in the order and he’s more than adequate.
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People need to separate the offensive and defensive parts when comparing. As much as I’d like to see Holliday playing left field in NY, I’m perfectly satisfied with Melky Cabrera anchoring the bottom of the line-up. He doesn’t have the best patience, the most speed or power or the best ability, but, for his spot in the order, there are few better and as far as defense, he’s not the best, but it’s a fairly short list of better CF/corner outfielders. He’ll steal some bases without getting thrown out very often and he’ll hit some homers and knock in his share of runs. He’s certainly better than average on defense in any of the 3 outfield spots. I have to assume that at age 25, he’s still 2 years away from his most productive years. He has 4 years in the majors, when in fact, he should probably had two more years in the minors.
Cabrera’s never going to steal 30 bases or hit 30 homers, but, I can see a consistant .285-.295 hitter and 16-18 homers and 75-85 RBI with 15-20 steals out of the #8-9 slots. That’s more than acceptable for any team that’s as loaded at other positions like NYY.
“People need to separate the offensive and defensive parts when comparing.”
I disagree completely.
Curtis Granderson is as good as he is because he can play CF. If he’s just a corner outfielder, he’s not nearly as valuable. Posada isn’t a great player if he’s a first baseman instead of a catcher.
The point is that a team can sign a corner outfielder for relatively little and get much better production that Melky can give the Yankees. Even a guy like Xavier Nady is a huge improvement at the plate over Melky.
Pat M
December 21st, 2009 at 2:51 am
GB, Good to see you old buddy, kinda getting a bit concerned….Did they spriing you yet ??? My point is about trusting my eyes, is that I can tell the difference between a A player and a B player, I have always believed that stats support a player’s worth and not dictates it…..As for Melky, he is the best # 8-9 hitter around…My issue with obtaining Holliday is to be slotted in the 5 hole as I have issues as to who can protect Alex…I thought Cano would evolve into that role, however there’s a concern about him in that role…….
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Morning, Pat. Yeah, I sprung this can late this afternoon. About a 3 hour drive to Ft. Myers, FL was a little taxing, so I slept when I got to my brother’s house. Then, there were those terrible dreams. I heard Miss Karloff’s size 18 left foot dragging everywhere. Brrrrr. Scares me just thinking about it.
I’d love the Holliday protection for Rodriguez, too. Failing that acquisition, I’m wondering if they might consider switching Teixeira and Rodriguez? Teixeira seems less likely to jump at pitches or expand his strike zone than Rodriguez when it’s crunch time in a thin line-up.
As far as Cano goes, 2 years ago, he hit over .300 with RISP and well over .290 the year before that. It’s not as if he hasn’t done it before. He’s never going to walk a lot, but, I would guess he’ll level out at about 35-40 walks. That’s not that big an issue as a .310-.330 hitter with increasing power.
With Matsui, Posada and Cano hitting almost 80 homers and knocking in about 260 runs in front of him, Swisher did pretty well knocking in the runs. His biggest issue was consistancy. When he’s hot, there’s very few pitchers that can get him out, and when he’s cold, everybody gets him out. He has long streaks of hot and cold….nothing in between. Much like Matsui in that respect.
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Good try. Runners on base: Abreu BA .354, OBP .437 OPS .902, Swisher BA .246, OBP .402, OBB .855. RISP: Abreu BA .354, OBP .448, OPS .923, Swisher BA .227, OBP .380, OBP .741
no.27
December 21st, 2009 at 3:11 am
“People need to separate the offensive and defensive parts when comparing.”
I disagree completely.
Curtis Granderson is as good as he is because he can play CF. If he’s just a corner outfielder, he’s not nearly as valuable. Posada isn’t a great player if he’s a first baseman instead of a catcher.
The point is that a team can sign a corner outfielder for relatively little and get much better production that Melky can give the Yankees. Even a guy like Xavier Nady is a huge improvement at the plate over Melky.
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If Posada was playing 1st base instead of catching all these years, his offensive numers would have been close to Teixeira numbers.
As far as Nady, goes, after a hot three week streak after joining NY, he wasn’t that good, and his defense is and always has been sub-par. That spurt of homers when he first got to NY is all that people remember. They forget the .220 Sptember average.
The point is that a team can sign a corner outfielder for relatively little and get much better production that Melky can give the Yankees. Even a guy like Xavier Nady is a huge improvement at the plate over Melky.
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Most observers say that Melky and Granderson are about equal defensively, with advantage possibly to Melky because of his arm.If Granderson plays LF, he’s at least as good as Damon offensively, and a big upgrade on defense. With Melky playing CF, there would be no change. Hence the Yanks upgrade LF and stay the same in CF. Hope Girardi plays Melky in CF and you’ll have no problem.
sure, in the abstract, holliday in LF would be nice, but i dont think he’s worth what he’s going to get and if reports that he wants 6-8 years are true, i cant see the yankees signing him at all. the are already deep into very long term contracts. holliday is very good but he’s not like cc or tex or arod, whom the yankees commited to on very long term deals. i could see them signing him for 3 or 4 years but i dont see them going any longer than that and i dont see holliday signing a contract like that when others (st louis?) are apparently willing to go much longer.
also as i’ve said many times, they dont need to sign holliday, melky is more than adequate.
GB. I see Cano very much like you do, and if they fail to ink Matt Holiday , Cano would be a strong candidate…However when you mention his low base on balls, the obs police will jump you faster than a jet jumps a shark or vice a versa ( West Side Story analogy )….Th eover obsession with that stat drives me over the edge, as it seems that obs is the Holy Grail of measuring a player…..I was asked the other night after making the holy grail comment, what I thought was the most important consideration in evaluating a hitter….Since the day the game was invented, it’s about hitting the baseball….I stated that I still say it’s batting average…..Then again I was told that I’m a fossil because I mentioned that unless they include obs, it’s still The Triple Crown, not a quadrouple crown….Glad you’re out of prison, and enjoy a slice of pizza……
“If Posada was playing 1st base instead of catching all these years, his offensive numers would have been close to Teixeira numbers.
As far as Nady, goes, after a hot three week streak after joining NY, he wasn’t that good, and his defense is and always has been sub-par. That spurt of homers when he first got to NY is all that people remember. They forget the .220 Sptember average.”
I don’t know about that. Who would Mike Piazza have hit like if he didn’t catch?
Nady being a much better bat than Melky doesn’t have anything to do with that hot streak he was on or the .220 September. He’s got a career OPS around 800. I am not even a big Nady fan, but that’s why I said, “even a guy like Nady”.
“Tex, Cano, Jeter, Arod, Posada, Granderson, CC, AJ, and Rivera, I think you can afford to take a gamble and wait one year for the next FA class, which almost everyone agrees is a deeper pool of talent.”
Holliday > any 2011 free agent
btw, this blog went through this exercise before midnight,and with exception of Holliday, who’s obviously not cheap, no one could come up with someone, who can be had, who would be better in left than Melky. The closest was Marlon Byrd being mentioned, but his age & possible cost after his 2009 year sort of disqualified him. But, as was said hours ago, open to suggestions.
“Most observers say that Melky and Granderson are about equal defensively, with advantage possibly to Melky because of his arm.If Granderson plays LF, he’s at least as good as Damon offensively, and a big upgrade on defense. With Melky playing CF, there would be no change. Hence the Yanks upgrade LF and stay the same in CF. Hope Girardi plays Melky in CF and you’ll have no problem.”
The point is that Granderson is a much more valuable player as a center fielder. Sure, the Yankees could put Melky in CF and Granderson in LF and the offense would be fine. But, the way to get the most out of every position would be to put Granderson in CF and a better hitter in LF.
Nady being a much better bat than Melky doesn’t have anything to do with that hot streak he was on or the .220 September. He’s got a career OPS around 800. I am not even a big Nady fan, but that’s why I said, “even a guy like Nady”
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except the Yanks rather take a chance on a healthy Melky than a questionable Nady. A Nady type can usually be had in mid season, if Melky doesn’t deliver; that’s exactly how they picked him up the last time.
i think the cosideration of derosa also indicates that the yankees see thier position players as pretty much done. they are waiting on the pithers they are considering the bench and thier options for a utility man.
The point is that Granderson is a much more valuable player as a center fielder. Sure, the Yankees could put Melky in CF and Granderson in LF and the offense would be fine. But, the way to get the most out of every position would be to put Granderson in CF and a better hitter in LF.
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Just keep in mind, that after pitching, Cashman wanted to upgrade the outfield defense. Add that into you coming up with a name. We know the defense is better with Melky & Granderson both playing, regardless of who plays LF & who plays CF.
im pretty sure i heard girardi say that granderson was our CF.
“The closest was Marlon Byrd being mentioned, but his age & possible cost after his 2009 year sort of disqualified him. But, as was said hours ago, open to suggestions.”
I’m not sure who their going to get, but I’m pretty sure they won’t go into the season with Melky, Gardner, and this new guy Hoffman all on the 25 man roster. They all pretty much do the same thing.
Pat M
December 21st, 2009 at 3:35 am
GB. I see Cano very much like you do, and if they fail to ink Matt Holiday , Cano would be a strong candidate…However when you mention his low base on balls, the obs police will jump you faster than a jet jumps a shark or vice a versa ( West Side Story analogy )….Th eover obsession with that stat drives me over the edge, as it seems that obs is the Holy Grail of measuring a player…..I was asked the other night after making the holy grail comment, what I thought was the most important consideration in evaluating a hitter….Since the day the game was invented, it’s about hitting the baseball….I stated that I still say it’s batting average…..Then again I was told that I’m a fossil because I mentioned that unless they include obs, it’s still The Triple Crown, not a quadrouple crown….Glad you’re out of prison, and enjoy a slice of pizza……
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Thanks, Pat. As soon as I feel like it’s safe enough to be around humans, I’m heading for Hooter’s in Cape Coral for a good Reuben sandwich and a look at the ….scenery. I’ll wash down both wit a few beers. I’m dying for a pizza, too…..or….just some real food.
Cano’s a .299 hitter out of the 5th spot in 65 games, but, only 8 walks. He hammers everything in the 7th spot and not far behind in the 6th spot. Where he really shines is leading off an inning….hitting .341 with 28 homers in 625 at bats. again, just not many walks. At the #7 spot, he hits .337 and OBP is .371. Not sure that I’d move him out of the 6-7 slots.
I’m not sure who their going to get, but I’m pretty sure they won’t go into the season with Melky, Gardner, and this new guy Hoffman all on the 25 man roster. They all pretty much do the same thing.
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You’re probably right, with Gardner the odd man out. And no, I don’t consider them about the same. Sorry to be redundant from yesterday, but between Gardner & Melky, Gardner is faster; Melky is a better hitter, hits for more power, is a better fielder, has a better arm, is younger & has more upside potential. I can’t comment of Hoffman because I haven’t seen him play but I assume he sticks because he hits lefties very well and is supposedly an above average fielding outfielder who can play all 3 positions, which sounds like a nice guy to have around when you want to sit Granderson against a lefty. As someone else pointed out yesterday, in a very succinct fashion, “it’s Melky’s job to lose”.
Sorry, I forgot to add in that Gardner did nothing after returning from his injury, and failed miserably as a pinch-runner in the playoffs.
Nurse Karloff…….Can’t help but laugh my ass off
If NYY doesn’t pick up a top of the line outfielder, NYYs not trading any of the outfielders until the end of spring training, when they figure out what Hoffman can possibly add. All he’s proven is that he can hit MINOR league left handers, and even at that, he’s not shown that he’s anything special. Everybody’s drooling all over him, but, want to unload Cabrera. Seems a little assbackwards to me.
Pat M
December 21st, 2009 at 4:06 am
Nurse Karloff…….Can’t help but laugh my ass off
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Boris has either risen from the dead or he has a twin sister…..right down to the mustache.
If NYY doesn’t pick up a top of the line outfielder, NYYs not trading any of the outfielders until the end of spring training, when they figure out what Hoffman can possibly add. All he’s proven is that he can hit MINOR league left handers, and even at that, he’s not shown that he’s anything special. Everybody’s drooling all over him, but, want to unload Cabrera. Seems a little assbackwards to me.
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I don’t know what your problem with Melky, but again the question is asked; who is available to play LF,who will be an upgrade defensively & better than Melky offensively, who can be had for a reasonable price, ie about the same cost as Melky, probably $2,5m or so for 1 year? And if the player you want is substantially more expensive than Melky, consider that you’ll probably have to move Swisher for payroll purposes and have Melky play RF. So far you said Nady, who’s unreraliable because of the injury.
GB, Some discussion here earlier today about Pete A…..Some slamming him for his attitude, and some defending him…..I mentioned that I did miss him mostly for him electing to go toe to toe with you as you always knocked him into the ropes…..TKO of sorts….Always be thankful for him getting us all together, as this is the best Yankee baseball forum….
Pat M
December 21st, 2009 at 4:22 am
GB, Some discussion here earlier today about Pete A…..Some slamming him for his attitude, and some defending him…..I mentioned that I did miss him mostly for him electing to go toe to toe with you as you always knocked him into the ropes…..TKO of sorts….Always be thankful for him getting us all together, as this is the best Yankee baseball forum….
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I really didn’t think about PA one way or the other. Never considered him all that important. He was just a jerk with a column. It was never more clear than when he insisted that NYY was a better team with Ransom at third than Rodriguez. It was just more proof that he was still bitter that Rodriguez was in NY than in Boston, when every paper was tooting the new Boston arrival. Either way, I neither read his articles nor care to. I didn’t read them when he was here, either.
Calling a night…..
akamgkrebs
December 21st, 2009 at 4:18 am
If NYY doesn’t pick up a top of the line outfielder, NYYs not trading any of the outfielders until the end of spring training, when they figure out what Hoffman can possibly add. All he’s proven is that he can hit MINOR league left handers, and even at that, he’s not shown that he’s anything special. Everybody’s drooling all over him, but, want to unload Cabrera. Seems a little assbackwards to me.
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I don’t know what your problem with Melky, but again the question is asked; who is available to play LF,who will be an upgrade defensively & better than Melky offensively, who can be had for a reasonable price, ie about the same cost as Melky, probably $2,5m or so for 1 year? And if the player you want is substantially more expensive than Melky, consider that you’ll probably have to move Swisher for payroll purposes and have Melky play RF. So far you said Nady, who’s unreraliable because of the injury.
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Reading is not your strong suit, is it? I never said anything about wanting Nady. What I said was that he was nothing special except for a three week streak after he joined NYY.
As far as Cabrera goes, I said that I’d like to see Holliday for the 5th spot in the order, but, was more than happy with him in center or left. Moving Swisher would be counter productive. If NYY gets holliday, then, NYY needs to move Cabrera even though he’s a better player than Gardner is, both offensively and defensively. Gardner is more of a #4 outfielder than Cabrera is.
Later, Pat. Have a great day, tomorrow.
Reading is not your strong suit, is it? I never said anything about wanting Nady. What I said was that he was nothing special except for a three week streak after he joined NYY.
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sorry if I didn’t understand your point, so now,, as I understand it, you have no suggestions of specific players who meet the criteria. As far as the counterproductive argument, I think Holliday in LF & Melky in RF would be a big upgrade. the point was that in order to pay a lot more than you’re paying Melky, you have to move Swisher.
GreenBeret-7 My apologies. i got your comments crossed with no.27, who suggested Nady. I understand your point completely, that Gardner is a better backup than Gardner (except that Gardner doesn’t have the arm for RF). But I still believe that the addition of Holliday would force the moving of Swisher, and the net effect would be positive; you’d have replaced Swisher in the OF for Holliday.
Again, my sincere apologies.
NYY has three ways to go as far as finishing up the roster and still keep the payroll under $200 Mil:
1. Finish it by promoting the youngsters (not a preference this year, but, the cheapest).
2. Sign Holliday and Justin Duchscherer and trade Cabrera for minor league talent or good bullpen help.
3. Sign Mark Derosa and Ben Sheets and call it a day. Derosa can fill in that both infield and outfield corners, both middle infield spots, as well as being the righ handed DH.
akamgkrebs
December 21st, 2009 at 5:14 am
GreenBeret-7 My apologies. i got your comments crossed with no.27, who suggested Nady. I understand your point completely, that Gardner is a better backup than Gardner (except that Gardner doesn’t have the arm for RF). But I still believe that the addition of Holliday would force the moving of Swisher, and the net effect would be positive; you’d have replaced Swisher in the OF for Holliday.
Again, my sincere apologies.
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Not a big deal. That happens on here all of the time.
1. Finish it by promoting the youngsters (not a preference this year, but, the cheapest).
2. Sign Holliday and Justin Duchscherer and trade Cabrera for minor league talent or good bullpen help.
3. Sign Mark Derosa and Ben Sheets and call it a day. Derosa can fill in that both infield and outfield corners, both middle infield spots, as well as being the righ handed DH.
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Option 1 doesn’t replace Melky in LF.
Option 2 will not keep payroll under $200m.
Option 3, well I don’t see DeRosa as any big deal, but I will say, it’s an option.
There is nothing wrong with Cabrera as a corner outfielder on this team. NYY’s at or close to $180 mil right now. Holliday/Duchscherer and a Cabrera trade brings it up close to $200 Mil.
Cabrera’s a better player than Garner, but, Gardner would be a better utility outfielder and Cabrera brings back more of a return. Cabrera is a better full time player than Gardner because he can do more of the all around things.
Philly fans still look bitter.
How sad for them.
It sounds like the Yankees are getting ready to add a starting pitcher. I would rather they take steps to make the bullpen more “bulletproof” instead and let Hughes and Chamberlain be the 4th & 5th starters.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports.....9U0jIMUpMN
We need another pitcher ..
It should come to no suprise since we’ve heard Cashman say it about 100 times already.
I like option #2 GB7. I think doing that would probably push the payroll a little over 200 million but as long as its under last years which was 206 million I belive them they can claim they have “lowered payroll” and I think that’s all they really care about. I think option #2 puts the best team in the field.
What would it take to get Zambrano??
CB earlier referred to some USA article which indicated Yankee revenue could have increased to almost $500 million due to the playoffs and World Series. What folks need to remember is that revenue is different from profit.
GM had revenue in the billions and was still in debt. Biggest chunck of any business is – payroll. Yankees are trying to control theirs so that there is a profit. We just don’t know what their profit target is, while paying their debt service on their $1.6 billion staduim.
What would it take to get Zambrano??
Probably starts with Melky, Dunn , and maybe another pitcher
Actually, I’m extremely confident that Jeter will have another terrific year…..
Stuckey, good points, but keep in mind my more recent post on the pitching was if we look at things on the positive side. We have to hope that Joba does well (doesn’t have to be great) and that Phil doesn’t blow up like in 2008 (though I believe that was the result of injury – I honestly don’t see that happening).
Good morning Roger-
This is Zambrano’s contract:
Carlos Zambrano rhp
5 years/$91.5M (2008-12), plus 2013 vesting option
5 years/$91.5M (2008-12), plus 2013 vesting option
signed extension with Cubs 8/17/07
$5M signing bonus
08:$15M, 09:$17.75M, 10:$17.875M, 11:$17.875M, 12:$18M, 13:$19.25M vesting player option
full no-trade clause
award bonus: $75,000 for All Star selection
Zambrano receives 2013 player option if he is first or second in 2011 Cy Young vote or if he finishes in top 4 in 2012 Cy Young vote and is healthy at end of 2012
I don’t think he fits under the Xmas tree.
Cubs are interested in Gardner-Maybe a trade for pitcher Randy Wells, 27 yo righty who had a pretty good season for the Cubs last year.
It’s already in the afternoon over here Yankee Trader.But good morning to you
I asked because of this:
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports.....9U0jIMUpMN
blake
December 21st, 2009 at 7:54 am
I like option #2 GB7. I think doing that would probably push the payroll a little over 200 million but as long as its under last years which was 206 million I belive them they can claim they have “lowered payroll” and I think that’s all they really care about. I think option #2 puts the best team in the field.
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#2 is my preference also, but, I have no problems with #2.
Here’s an article/interview with Hal Steinbrenner dated 17 Dec. He basically says that the Yankees aren’t finished and the payroll is more flexable. That’s somewhat different than Cashman’s statement on payroll in the same article. Also, love this quote from Kid Steinbrenner:
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com.....8;c_id=nyy
“In the intra-office discussions of which players the Yankees should or should not pursue, Steinbrenner said he would not hesitate to help close negotiations — shades of the stance his father often took. But the younger Steinbrenner is also content to allow his baseball people to do what they are paid for.
“I know my limitations,” Steinbrenner said. “I am not a baseball person — I didn’t play it professionally and there are many people who are more knowledgeable than me. I absolutely listen to Brian and everyone he listens to, [manager] Joe [Girardi] and the coaches and our scouts. We have a good network of people who are very knowledgeable. I rely on all of them.”
GB, he’s definitely a different breed than his Dad……..The Yankees are very hard to read now, very inscrutable. Here we stand, trying to analyze every statement to death…….it’s funny in a way. Right now, I have no idea what they are planning. Sheets is the only available SP that I’m interested in and we won’t know anythihng about his health until January. If he is healthy, expect a bidding war, which means the Yankees are out. The complicating issue is that if the Yankees try and go with the kids and they determine that it’s not working, who’s going to trade with them? At the deadline last year, teams demanded Phil/Joba/Montero/Jackson for relatively mediocre veterans.
I certainly hope that this Jason Marquis/Joel Piniero talk is just smokescreen. Why would you even think about these two guys, who are below average in the National League? Marquis had an ERA over 4 last year in the NL, and that was his best year since ’04. Piniero had his best year since 2003. Are we supposed to think he has finally figured it out. Even with a good ERA, he still gave up mre than a hit per inning, and his best ERA in his last 4 years in the AL was 4.67!
Why these guys when Hughes and Joba are better right now?
Betsu, Hal s., judging by those statements aren’t as married to the under $200 mil payroll as Cashman is. Not to say that he’s going to blow past $220 mil, but, if it makes sense, he’ll go for it.
No question that Sheets is the pitching plum, but, he’s not without the bruises. Holliday is the top bat, but, I think that they’ll only chase one of the big tickets. If Holliday signs, Cabrera is probably history…mainly because, although he’s the better player, Gardner is likely to deal with the backup role better. If they go after, say, Derosa, Cabrera will stay and Gardner will go, probably late in spring training.
If Boston was willing to eat $9M of Lowell’s $12.5M contract to peddle him, the Yankees can certainly eat $2M of Kei Igawa’s remaining $4M contract and include him in the next deal.
All Igawa does is take up a rotation spot in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in place of a more deserving pitcher in future Yankee plans.
GB7, how are you feeling? Also, I agree that the 3 options you posted are pretty much what they are considering. Which do you feel is the most likely way they will go?
It’s going to be a fun week and a half, thats for sure.
I’d be shocked if Holliday chose the Yankees over St. Louis. He just doesn’t seem like the bright lights big city type of guy. Yes, he would be perfect for LF. Yes, he would be a good #5 hitter.
But Jeter can not be leadoff for much longer, which is one of the reasons I’d prefer Crawford next year. In fact, I’d trade for him now to ensure that he’d be extended and never hit Free Agency. But alas, the Yankees don’t like to do extensions, so it won’t likely happen.
Regardless, I’m content with the lineup as presently constructed, and would like to see another arm picked up. I don’t feel that either Gaudin or Mitre is the answer as a #4 starter, and don’t see both of them being on the 25-man roster anyway, come opening day.
Gaudin has trade value, and Mitre adds pitching depth, or vice-versa. The Duke is an option because he can start or relieve, but I’d prefer Bedard as he’s a lefty, and probably cheaper than Sheets, who’s looking for guaranteed contract for multiple years, according to some reports.
It’s evident that Yankee brass don’t want Hughes and Joba in the rotation together until they prove they are capable of it, and maybe they view one as a permanent reliever going forward – my guess is Joba. If so, Joba can work his way to being the setup for Rivera, a job we all saw him do well.
Of course if Holliday is signed, then Melky can become a part of a trade package for another starter, just have no idea who. I hope neither happens.
GB7 -
I just finished reading last night’s late night comments.
First, glad to see you’ve been “sprung” as you put it. Take it easy.
It was heartening for me to read your take on Melky Cabrera (and Pat M’s), because I feel at least a little bit vindicated in how I feel about the whole LF situation. I imagine I “sound” emotional in my defense of Cabrera, because I don’t cite the numbers, except for BA. I cite my perceptions, which are subjective, no doubt. I was accused last night basically of being a closet Red Sox fan and a Melky-fawner because I said the Yankees don’t have to replace him with Holliday.
I acknowledge that the #5 slot in the batting order is somewhat of a question mark going into 2010, but I think short of signing Holliday, it will settle itself. Naive? Perhaps. Risky to let it settle out without take aggressive action? I guess so. I kind of like the idea of flipping Tex and ARod in the order. That sounds like it could work. But then, who “protects” Tex?
I admit that I may need a little enlightenment on the whole concept of protection. If the protector isn’t also protected, isn’t that a problem too? I see the entire Yankees lineup as protection, because for the most part there weren’t too many holes most of the time (4 out of the 5 days, to be specific without getting into THAT, if you know what I mean).
I want to make it clear that in spite of the fact that I stated I did not want to read what CB had to say about Melky, it was not meant as disrespect for him and what he adds to this forum. It was just that I’d reached my personal limit in reading about Melky’s limitations. I wouldn’t have read it if it was written by Brian Cashman or even Albert Einstein.
blake
December 21st, 2009 at 8:57 am
GB7, how are you feeling? Also, I agree that the 3 options you posted are pretty much what they are considering. Which do you feel is the most likely way they will go?
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Doing pretty well, Blake. Thanks for asking. Was a long 3 hour drive from Tampa to Ft. Myers and it sort of wore me out…also a little uncomfortable.
Of the 3 scenarios I mentioned, I would prefer 3, as long as they flip Rodriguez and Teixeira in the line-up. Teixeira’s not likely to be as jumpy and chase bad pitches if the Yanks aren’t hitting. Rodriguez may feel that he has to do more without the big bat behind him. Posada would probably bat 5th, but, at most, that would be 120 games as a catcher. I can’t see Posada DHing more than 3-4 times. He averages 6 a year.
If they go after Holliday, then keep the order as is.
GB, you’re finally out of the hospital? Good for you!! Hope you’re feeling better.
Zambrano just does not feel like an $18m / year player. What’s CC? $18 – 20m per ?
That’s a bad contract for Zambrano. Basically signed at the peak of the market. If the Yankees make that trade, they should not give up anything b/c with that contact it is bascially a FA signing less the draft pick loss.
Rather spend the loot on Matt Holliday.
DaSaint007,
One of the problems with Crawford is that he could serve his team best by hitting leadoff, but he does not like to do it. In fact, he begged out of the leadoff spot in 2005. He would bat leadoff if the Yankees insisted, but I don’t think you want to pay 100M for a guy to play in an uncomfortable position.
GB7
congrats on escaping from Nurse Karloff…hope you continue to improve.
I don’t see how any of these pitchers mentioned are better than Joba and Phil, I would rather give them a chance, and replace them if necessary later on. Why stretch Joba out only to return him to the pen?
and Doreen, I didn’t see all the Melky bashing, but I agree w/ you. He is certainly an adequate LF, there doesn’t need to be an all star at every position. I still think Melky hasn’t reached his potential.
Doreen – Ain’t it Just “Grand”?
December 21st, 2009 at 9:01 am
GB7 -
I just finished reading last night’s late night comments.
First, glad to see you’ve been “sprung” as you put it. Take it easy.
It was heartening for me to read your take on Melky Cabrera (and Pat M’s), because I feel at least a little bit vindicated in how I feel about the whole LF situation. I imagine I “sound” emotional in my defense of Cabrera, because I don’t cite the numbers, except for BA. I cite my perceptions, which are subjective, no doubt. I was accused last night basically of being a closet Red Sox fan and a Melky-fawner because I said the Yankees don’t have to replace him with Holliday.
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Morning, Doreen. Yes, I made my jailbreak when they were having dinner. I could hear Nurse Karloff munching on a side of beef, so the noise covered the tower guards shots.
Not sure why Cabrera gets hammered so much. He’s not the perfect answer, but, like I said, there are few if any better #8-9 hitters in either league and his defense is well above average at three spots. He does a lot of things ok, just nothing spectacular. He’s also an excitable kid when the Yanks are winning. He’s a breath of fresh air. Quite frankly, the Yankees could do much worse. as a full time player, I like him more than Gardner.
upstate kate -
Actually, there wasn’t any Melky “bashing” as far as I could tell. I just have probably zero tolerance anymore for how easily he is dismissed. That’s me, I admit to a bias there.
I think the supposed interest in Zambrano is a smokescreen designed to gain leverage in other negotiations.
“If they go after Holliday, then keep the order as is.”
GreenBeret7,
Hope your health improves and good recovery continues. Maybe try switching to a higher quality beer-Coors light
At least you don’t drink Natty light.
I would say that even if they get Holliday, they may consider the Arod-Tex flip-flop in the order. That would keep the L-R more consistent throughout the order. The argument against that may be that there is a lot of turnover already, and it may not be in the best interest to shake things up even more.
Erin
December 21st, 2009 at 9:09 am
GB, you’re finally out of the hospital? Good for you!! Hope you’re feeling better.
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Yeah, I had to shoot my way out, Erin. They put up roadblocks and everything.
It’s good to be at my brother’s house, but, he’s worse than Nurse Karloff. He won’t get me any cigarettes, either. He also wrote and told Santa not to put any in my stocking, that will be hung with care…not that it’s going to help.i
GB, hope you’re doing well!
Alex is a superior hitter to Tex and should be hitting behind him. Tex is the one who needs protection as he was awful without Alex – even worse than he normally is in April.
Thank you, Kate. People forget that Cabrera’s still just 25 years old and won’t reach the average prime years for another 2 seasons. He’s not likely to ever be a star, but, he adds things to the team and other players seem to like him.
No. Your mixing projections systems that have different methods and scales.
It’s difficult to compare those estimates from RLYB to fangraphs – most notably because fangraphs relies only on UZR data for defensive value while SG models defense using both zone rating and UZR. Also, the estimates for pitching will be different due to the fact that fangraphs only uses FIP and RLYB uses ERA (and ERA is in IMO the much more valid way of calculating WAR for pitchers…).
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I did not realize they are using different scales.
I apologize for jumping the gun on that as my argument does not really make any sense given that fact.
I personally don’t think anyone was bashing Melky. Saying that he’s not all that talented or is more of a 4th OF is not bashing…….
Melky may only be 25, but the fact that his ISO D peaked at 21 (.080) is a potential red flag. It was that patience shown at an early age that signaled that he had real potential as a hitter. That it went the other way tends to indicate the opposite.
Good morning one and all.
Before I went to bed last night I did four things which I thought might give me the answers to some of our more perplexing questions:
1) I consulted my weejee board
2) I re-read my book on Nostradamus
3) I entered all data into my rube goldberg machine and looked at the results
4) I made a quick trip to the Oracle at Delphi
And below is what I learned.
None of the sources agreed with each other.
No one source had the answer with absolute certainty.
But they did give me a few other things :
they told me that:
Holliday would make a decision before new year’s.
That Holliday wants to be a Yankee more than a Card.
That m is right and this situation is almost the same as last years w Tex
That Cash is laying in the weeds again
That Boras is going to give Cash the last right of refusal
That the Cards cant go as far as the Yankees can
That CB is a genius
That PatM is perceptive and knows baseball
That GB7 will be better than ever, and will get pizza, beer, etc. but no more cigarettes
That Nick will not loose his sense of humor as many have aledged.
That Betsy will continue to worry
That Erica might still have a chance with Damon
That Wang will heal better than anybody expected and will return
that the Yanks would repeat as WC
That some things are essentially unknowable
And that time will tell
But the biggest thing I learned from the most powerful sources in the Universe is:
That know matter what happens it’s ALL GOOD.
These are THE FACTS and I am stickin to them !
I can have nothing more to say on the matter.
Mark in Tampa
December 21st, 2009 at 9:17 am
“If they go after Holliday, then keep the order as is.”
GreenBeret7,
Hope your health improves and good recovery continues. Maybe try switching to a higher quality beer-Coors light At least you don’t drink Natty light.
I would say that even if they get Holliday, they may consider the Arod-Tex flip-flop in the order. That would keep the L-R more consistent throughout the order. The argument against that may be that there is a lot of turnover already, and it may not be in the best interest to shake things up even more.
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I was thinking about how jumpy he was during the first two WS games, because, again, nobody was hitting. I really like him in the #4 spot, though, but, I like the protection for him. Then again, hopefully this 2009 post season will completely empty his mind of everything except the at bat/game at hand. He could be primed for a record type season. He should never hear another boo at YS again.
Sorry,
there was one more pearl of wisdom.
taht melky would be just fine in LF.
GB7
Glad to see you are making progress.
Those gun shots were the guards shooting the Marlboro Man waiting for you.
I hope you can resist the urge. Speaking from personal experience. I’ve been told to quit and not winning the battle as yet.
So the Swisher trade thread got referenced by the MLB Trade Rumors site.
Great. Thanks to a bunch of boring, trade-geeks in here, Swish gets to hear how “Yankee fans” have been discussing trading him.
Thanks for the great season Swish. Now you can leave, we want a bigger and better outfielder!
The underbelly strikes again!
GB7–Glad you have gotten out. I have lots of family in the Ft.Myers-Naples area. Beautiful places. No smoking. I ate my weight in Brachs cinnamon candy. Whatever it takes.
Holliday seems like such a good fit to me. The ones who bash his Oakland numbers need to look at his last three months there.
As done who follows the enemy Sox, I read the other day in one of the Boston papers that the Sox do not want to publicize their budget as they felt it hurt them in the market if other teams and agents knew. Surely, the Yankees feel the same. If so, we don’t really know the budget.
Betsy -high on pie
December 21st, 2009 at 9:24 am
GB, hope you’re doing well!
Alex is a superior hitter to Tex and should be hitting behind him. Tex is the one who needs protection as he was awful without Alex – even worse than he normally is in April.
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It will be difficult to pitch around or walk Teixeira with 2 or 3 hitters already on base. It was more that Teixeira’s not as likely to go out of the strike zone as Rodriguez. Really, it will affect only 40 or so games. It will be interesting to watch the makeup of the batting order the coming season.
MTU, that goofy know-it-all Delphi should know that you can’t eat pizza and drink beer without a cigarette. But, it’s going on 8 days. NOW LEAVE ME ALONE…I’M GOING CRAZY.
Morning, Maine. They should have left the Marlboro Man alone and shot the Monster Of Bay Pines. Good God, what a hideous creature.
First of all GB, Tommy Lee Jones is out looking for you! Thank God you’ve escaped, and we’ll do our best to fool the US Marshals.
LOL @ Bronx Jeers! Poor Swish. Became the heart and soul of the team, but now he’s not good enough. Welcome to New York and ‘What have you done for me lately’. Same for the Melk Man. Doesn’t matter his game-winning heroics. Doesn’t matter that he’s only 25. Doesn’t matter that he had almost the same number of RBIs as my man Carl Crawford but in a lot less ABs. No, it’s you gotta go pappa.
Time will tell what happens, but I have faith in Cash irrespective of the outcome. He’s not perfect (Farnsworth, Betemit, etc.,) but he generally has a plan.