The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


The idea of trading Gardner or Cabrera

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 20, 2009 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Look for this sort of idea to be floated quite a bit the next month or so.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi wrote yesterday about the Chicago Cubs need for a center fielder. They mentioned Marlon Byrd and Scott Podsednik as free agent candidates, then they threw Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner into the mix as players who “could become available this offseason, depending upon how (the Yankees) roster evolves.”

The logic is hard to argue. The Yankees have a new center fielder. They just took a player in the Rule 5 draft who can play center field. They also have two center fielders returning from last season. It’s reasonable to think someone might be available in a trade (and to be perfectly honest, one of my first reactions to the Curtis Granderson deal was that Gardner would probably traded). Also, Rosenthal and Morosi are national baseball writers. They’re writing for an audience that doesn’t know the Yankees roster from top to bottom. It’s their job to make people aware of a center field situation such as New York.

But the key line seems to be, “depending upon how their roster evolves.”

Right now, Granderson, Gardner, Cabrera, Jamie Hoffmann and Nick Swisher are pretty much the extent of the Yankees outfield depth. Colin Curtis is in that mix somewhere, but he has only a half season of Triple-A experience, and he hit just .235 in that time. He seems to have made some strides in the Arizona Fall League, and it’s perfectly reasonable to think he could get to New York before the end of the year, but heading into spring training, the big league outfield mix is pretty much limited to five guys. Trading one, without bringing in another, would leave the options very thin.

The Yankees might try to make a move at some point, but right now their center field depth isn’t a luxury, it’s a necessity.

Comments

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179 Responses to “The idea of trading Gardner or Cabrera”

  1. mick December 20th, 2009 at 9:19 am

    Man, the snow!!!!!!!!

  2. Jon December 20th, 2009 at 9:22 am

    sign derosa, trade gardner for a young arm.

  3. Phil the Thrill December 20th, 2009 at 9:22 am

    They probably won’t trade Melky or Gardy till after they get Holliday.

  4. Abdababdaserser December 20th, 2009 at 9:26 am

    It all depends on if the Yankees let it stand as it is right now. Right now Melky appears to be the LF starter. That could change if the Yankees make a trade or a FA signing for that role.

    I don’t see them trading away Gardner or Melky right now. Hoffman is an experiment, so its not a lock that he will stick. I think he is a hedge for if Granderson can’t improve against lefty pitching.

    Melky might be the one to move in a trade because of his higher salary, if they get a left fielder. Gardner still has a decent chance of being brought into games for his speed and he can cover the outfield late in games.

    If the Yankees stand with the roster they currently have, none of the outfielders will be traded. There can also be trades that come up during the season that would change things in the outfield if it is seen as too big a weakness.

  5. bru December 20th, 2009 at 9:27 am

    i have to go shovel myself out so i can go to work at 2

    i don’t wan’t to

  6. Starks in Tampa December 20th, 2009 at 9:27 am

    I see we are still holding hope for Holliday. Listen as learned in the past you can never count out Cashman but Holliday coming is VERY VERY UNLIKELY and I am fine with that.

    I think Gardner will get dealt but it all depends on what package the Yankees get for either player. If the Cubs value Gardner more then Melky, the figure the Speed, the ground he covers in center, if they believe his bat will keep improving then thats who they will want.

    I wouldnt be surprised both Gardner and Melky on the roster untill the end of Spring Training to see what Hoffman is all about.

  7. mike December 20th, 2009 at 9:31 am

    Gardner needs to be the pinch runner/defensive replacement
    Pena/Hoffmann have no where near his speed.

    Girardi to Pena after he get caught stealing:
    “Ramiro, i managed Brett Gardner. I knew Brett Gardner. Brett Gardner was a player of mine. Ramiro, you are no Brett Gardner.

  8. Chris from NJ December 20th, 2009 at 9:33 am

    Gardner is a weapon off the bench with his speed, and his defense is fantastic, and I think we are continuing to see growth out of Melky. He may never be a premier OF, but he won us an awful lot of games with his clutch hitting last season. THough I’m sure one would be traded if we signed a LF guy.

  9. Abdababdaserser December 20th, 2009 at 9:41 am

    Chris, I agree that Gardner’s speed is of a lot of value, but while he can field fairly well, it isn’t a big strength of his. He doesn’t take good routes to the ball, his speed helps some in making up for his errors in judgment.

    I think, fielding wise, he is like Ellsbury, making plays that should be ordinary look a lot more difficult than they need to be. Unlike Ellsbury, Gardner doesn’t hit enough.

  10. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 9:43 am

    Unfortunately for the Yankees, 3 of the 5 (Gardner, Melky, Rule 5) are best suited for a 4th or 5th OF spot on a roster…unless it is the Pirates’ roster. :)

  11. blake December 20th, 2009 at 9:57 am

    I don’t think either of them will get traded unless they sign Holliday or another corner outfielder. As it stands right now Melky will be the starter in LF and they need Gardner for depth as Chad said.

    Having said that, yes I believe there is still a fairly good chance of a Holliday signing. They don’t need him in the same sense they needed CC or Tex last year but at the price he may sign at it may be too good to pass up.. Its kinda like when you buy something at the mall because its in sale. Holliday is on sale this offseason compared to what he would normally cost and the yanks may decide to take advantage since they can afford to

  12. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 December 20th, 2009 at 9:58 am

    I still believe in Melky and he is only 25. Gardner after a good start floundered. I’d like to see he and Ellsbury in a foot race. I am looking forward to the athleticism of Granderson.

    Does anyone truly believe that the rule 5 player will have a chance at all.

  13. Noreaster December 20th, 2009 at 10:00 am

    Abdababdaserser, Gardner’s zone rating was top 3 or 4 of all centerfielders. His fielding last year was a strength. (But I agree that it looks like he takes curious routes to the ball sometimes).

  14. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 December 20th, 2009 at 10:01 am

    I know it is RS news but last year Els hit .301 and his fielding % was .997, with only two errors. Oh, and he stole 70 bases. He’s pretty good!

  15. Steve December 20th, 2009 at 10:02 am

    I can see us looking at trade options for Gardner/Melky and even Swisher. But here are some facts:

    1. Trading Swisher to free up salary for Bay or Holliday makes sense. I would not however trade SWisher to Atl. for Lowe. That makes no sense.

    2. I think that we would need to acquire a proven outfielder (either via trade or FA signing) before we could consider a trade of Gardner or Melky. I think we should keep Melky over Gardner unless Melky is part of package that nets us players who fill other needs.

    At minimum, Gardner is trade bait if we could get Damon back to be primary LF with Melky being primary back up in LF and part of rotation in CF and RF. Hoffman is intriguing but we need to see more of him before we can look at him as part of roster.

  16. blake December 20th, 2009 at 10:02 am

    I know what the stats say about gardners defense vs melkys but when a ball was hit to CF last year I felt more confident it would be caught when melky was out there than I did when Gardner was.

  17. Jeff NJ December 20th, 2009 at 10:04 am

    “Granderson, Gardner, Cabrera, Jamie Hoffmann and Nick Swisher”

    This is not an overly inspiring bunch, but hey it’s at least equivalent to the group that won the World Series this year, so I guess we could live with it. There are some good players out there like Hairston, Bay, Hinske, Damon, Shelly Duncan, Holliday.

  18. Noreaster December 20th, 2009 at 10:06 am

    Funnly thing about Els, his zone rating put him at the bottom of all centerfielders (in both leagues). The stats hate the speedy centerfielder of the sox. Pretty funny beacuse the stats hated Jeter (up until this year!) and it drove Sux fans crazy, now the shoe is on the other foot.

  19. Noreaster December 20th, 2009 at 10:08 am

    Bottom line about Gardner’s defense, is that late in games Joe put him in center and moved Melky over to left. It says something about Gardner’s cf defense, but it could also be a clue as to who is better suited to LF too.

  20. dan l December 20th, 2009 at 10:12 am

    Can we finally trade Melky? He is getting expensive an is useless. His second half numbers match his pathetic career numbers. His mental game stinks. Anyone who runs into the SS when he doesn’t have to run is just STUPID. He air mails throws to the wrong bases all the time. Please Cashman trade Melky ASAP!

  21. blake December 20th, 2009 at 10:13 am

    I’ve read a lot on this blog that the Yankees won the WS with the outfield last year so why can’t they do it again. Well the answer is that they could but that’s not really a good way to look at things. The Yankees did win it all last year but you can’t assume things will unfold the same way in 2010. You could argue that the Yankees won last year despite having one of the weaker outfields in baseball.

    If the yanks choose not to upgrade LF for financial reasons then that’s fine, I don’t write the checks and can’t complain when they already have the biggest payroll in baseball. However if they choose not to because they are content and think they don’t need to improve then I think thats flawed logic.

  22. Abdababdaserser December 20th, 2009 at 10:13 am

    I think Hoffman is one of those cover type moves. Hoffman is probably a hedge for Granderson against left hand pitching if he doesn’t seem to show improvement against them.

    He was gotten to have some value from Bruney, who they were going to DFA otherwise.

    Melky can play well enough if they go into the season with him at left, but he’s had enough seasons to pretty much see that his level of play is about what you can expect. There is a chance that he might improve some more, but I don’t think its something to count on.

    Gardner vs. Ellsbury running a race would be interesting to see. Both have plus speed.

    Gardner should be able to get more infield hits than he does. If he can work on his bunting skills he can make that a weapon. That might increase his chances for getting hits as well as he will get shaded in more.

    I agree with Blake that Holliday remains a possible choice for the Yankees, but I don’t think it is a high priority for them. I think its a waiting game with looking to see how anxious Holliday becomes on signing. Despite the talk, I think if the offers were close, he would see his best chances at a WS coming from the Yankees. The Cards would have a lot tied up in him and Pujols and would make it tough for them to sign other talent to keep them in contention. 40% of their payroll going to two players has to be scary for both the players and the Cards FO.

  23. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 10:14 am

    I imagine the Yanks could get something of value for Melky – a switch hitter who can play all 3 OF positions. Maybe a bullpen arm or AAA starter.

    Of course, this trade would only make sense if they brought in a LF (Holliday or such).

  24. Stan December 20th, 2009 at 10:17 am

    The OF situation hinges on a Holliday deal. If a deal is done, Gardner should figure in on a trade and Hoffmann will have to play himself off the roster in March.

  25. Noreaster December 20th, 2009 at 10:18 am

    I think the Yankees outfield has a chance to be better this year than last year. It’s possible that the work Long did with Swisher during the World Series will payoff next year, Grandersen could have a big year swinging at the Yankee Stadium right field, Melky, Gardner and Hoffmann could turn out to be a good LF combination.

    The bigger point is that we don’t have to have an allstar at EVERY position. Someone has to bat ninth. It makes sense to go into the year with the outfield we have in place. If it doesn’t work out, we can always pick someone up in August for the playoff push.

  26. Abdababdaserser December 20th, 2009 at 10:19 am

    There are some good players out there like Hairston, Bay, Hinske, Damon, Shelly Duncan, Holliday.
    ___________

    Some of these are just back up players. I don’t see the Yankees signing Duncan or Hairston or Hinske as an upgrade over who they already have.

    Damon is the cheapest option, Bay isn’t a good defense player. Holliday is a better player of this list of names by a good margin.

  27. dan l December 20th, 2009 at 10:22 am

    I still want Conor Jackson for LF or as a bench bat.

  28. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 10:23 am

    Blake-
    Spot on. Enjoyed your posts today.

    Careful. You make too much sense.

  29. blake December 20th, 2009 at 10:23 am

    Abda,

    I don’t neccessarily think Holliday is a priority either at this point. I think they probably view him as a luxury but with the current offers he is a luxury at a discounted price.

  30. Thurman December 20th, 2009 at 10:31 am

    If they trade Melky or Gardner, I wouldn’t mind seeing Ted Lilly in the rotation next year. Then they could go back to Bor-ASS and tell him that Damon is welcome to man LF next year for $7.5M.

    Cashman is hording his prospects for the deal with Minny that will bring Joe Mauer. That’s the only deal I would imagine he would include Montero in.

  31. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 10:34 am

    Off topic:

    Interesting article on how some top agents may be misjudging
    this years market, and hurting their clients in the process.

    Matt. Do yourself a favor and hire someone else. Boras is out of touch with this year’s reality, and he is steering you in the wrong direction.


    Agents’ tactics have left Johnny Damon, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday out in the cold”

    Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....z0aF9uPcxi

    Taken from the daily news by Madden.

  32. stuckey December 20th, 2009 at 10:34 am

    “If the yanks choose not to upgrade LF for financial reasons then that’s fine, I don’t write the checks and can’t complain when they already have the biggest payroll in baseball. However if they choose not to because they are content and think they don’t need to improve then I think thats flawed logic.”

    Of course it’s flawed logic when you’re inventing the logic you choose to respond to.

    I don’t know ANYONE that is suggesting Yanks should not consider an upgrade over Cabrera IF the opportunity presents itself (IF you are, stand up and be known).

    *I* count myself among the people who respond in the manner you describe when posters make it sound like the Yanks urgently need to upgrade Cabrera’s 9th spot in the batting order. And/or that the off-season will be a failure if a move is not made.

    And yes, spending $80 to $100m for a player with SOME question marks about his production sounds like misplaced urgency TO ME.

    I’m fine if Hoffman or Garndner outplay him in ST. I’m fine if Holliday falls to some bargain basement FA price. I’m fine if some team feels the urge to unload an “upgrade” outfielder for a spare part of B-level prospect.

    Just please stop characterizing people who REMEMBER the success the Yanks had with Cabrera and the fact he hits in the 9th hole and doesn’t take his AB’s in left field when the Yankees are batting as someone blind to abilities and unwilling to consider an astute upgrade where the situation to materialize.

  33. Ed H. December 20th, 2009 at 10:35 am

    It is amazing to me how many people have already judged Brett Gardner as a failure based on a rookie season during which he had only 248 at-bats. He hit .270, stole 26 bases and had an OPS of .724. In the field, he ranked third among center fielders and had a .990 fielding percentage. As a rookie. He has top ranked skills on the team in his abilities to steal bases and cover ground in the outfield. You don’t dismiss his potential and just throw him away.

  34. EdWhitson December 20th, 2009 at 10:35 am

    Hoffman = 2010 verison of Mike Lamb.

    You hear it here first :)

  35. Noreaster December 20th, 2009 at 10:37 am

    blake, with the offense we already have in place, plus with the free agent class next year, there is no way the Yankees are going to lock up left field with Holliday over the next 5 years. There are enough questions about Holliday being able to hit in the american league that make him a questionable target. The team that signs Holliday will be a team that has to sign Holliday. That team is not the Yankeees. We don’t need him and he doesn’t make us a better team in 2 years when Jeter and ARod are older and Posada is either a DH or almost done. Plus, Jeter has to play somewhere in the future (he really won’t be a SS forever will he?)

  36. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 10:40 am

    As the roster currently stands, I think the strongest lineup offense/defense is Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF. Gardner was a 2.1 WAR player last season in limited playing time. With some development offensively, and more PT, I think he has a chance to be very valuable. With Granderson in LF and Gardner in CF, the OF defense would be outstanding.

    But I know that’s not going to happen.

  37. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 10:41 am

    “Matt. Do yourself a favor and hire someone else. Boras is out of touch with this year’s reality, and he is steering you in the wrong direction.”

    You can’t judge the job an agent does until the players sign.

  38. blake December 20th, 2009 at 10:42 am

    Noreaster,

    I love the granderson move and think the outfield is slightly better than last year based soley on that. I’m also a big Swisher fan as well. However as I’ve said before unless they plan on Melky being their longterm LF option then now may be their best chance to significantly upgrade that position and do so at a good price. There are no options close in the minors, and the free options next year will probably be just as expensive and IMO are lesser players than the guy who is available now.

  39. murphydog December 20th, 2009 at 10:43 am

    As it stands now the 2010 Yankee defense is much more athletic and younger (and cheaper) than 2009 with Granderson CF, Melky LF and Swish in RF. The real issue is whether Granderson and Johnson replace Damon and Matsui’s offensive contributions. IMO, they’ll come close and the Yankees should still have the firepower needed to score a post-season eligible number of runs.

    While Teix started sloooooow last year he may get a better start this year. Although his track record predicts another slow start, the difference may be that A-Rod will be there behind him in 2010 without missing April and most of May.

    Po should get more rest behind the plate in 2010 and hopefully keep his bat in the lineup more games than last year. Jeter should come close to last year; he’s nothing if not consistent and it’s a contract year for him. Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson should have fun with the right field porch but I am a little concerned about first-year-in-pinstripes adjustment woes for each. Note: technically, Johnson has been here before. They also have to figure out how to keep NJ healthy. Cano and Swish and Melky round out the order nicely enough. Is Melky really that bad a no. 9 hitter?

    Thus, in addition to making the 2009 WS Champs better defensively for 2010, Cash may have cost-effectively replaced much of the lost offense from Damon and Matsui, with reasonable expectation that he’ll pick up a little slack in a full season of A-Rod and Po in 2010. Cash can be forgiven for stopping here and seeking pitching next in order to keep his powder dry for 2011′s FA crop, including Jeter and Mo.

  40. tex's friend December 20th, 2009 at 10:43 am

    Unfortunately for the Yankees, 3 of the 5 (Gardner, Melky, Rule 5) are best suited for a 4th or 5th OF spot on a roster…unless it is the Pirates’ roster
    ___

    you people are like a broken record. melky was fine in CF last year. his fielding was good and his hitting got better. he is fine for the lineup. certainly not a 4th fielder.

  41. Kevin Page December 20th, 2009 at 10:45 am

    *** WARNING – I’m going off topic ***
    ————————————————————

    Does anyone else feel that since Sam, Chad & Josh took over the blog has improved dramatically?

    No offense to Pete as he started this thing (and it was my main source for Yankee news), but since the 3 headed monster took over I REALLY enjoy reading it alot more.

    I’m glad I don’t have to hear Pete chirp on about:

    - Bruce Springsteen
    - making snide comments about Yankee players
    - general “snarky” attitude.

    Now we just get the news without alot of nonsensical commentary and stupid remarks. I like hearing Chad, Sam & Josh’s opinion on matters, but it done in a much more professional and level headed way.

    EXCELLENT JOB GUYS, I REALLY MEAN IT. I’m impressed that I can read something on the internet that is intelligent, well though out and TRUSTWORTHY.

  42. blake December 20th, 2009 at 10:48 am

    Stuckey, if that’s your opinion then that’s fine. We don’t have to agree.. blogs are for opinions, you have yours and Ill have mine.

  43. GeorgeInJax December 20th, 2009 at 10:49 am

    Re: “the Yankees won last year despite having one of the weaker outfields in baseball.”

    The outfield as it stands right now with Melky/Granderson/Swisher is projected to hit around 70 HR 200+ RBI And is right now a very good defensive outfield.
    With talented young guys backing up Gardner/Hoffman.

    Adding Holliday would be icing on the cake, but our guys aren’t chopped liver either.

  44. jpb1973 December 20th, 2009 at 10:53 am

    I don’t see the Yankees trading Gardner unless they make an unforecast roster addition. I think that he’s too valuable as a pinch runner late in close games. Right now, we have 3 guys in our everyday lineup (Posada, Swisher and Johnson) that Gardner could pinchrun for in a close game. That means there is a lot of opportunity for him to affect the result of close games for the Yankees.

    Additionally, I like the idea of using Gardner as a late inning defensive replacement for Swisher. Put Gardner in LF and move Melky from LF to RF during the ninth inning of every game that is a save situation.

    Two more things about Gardner (one is good…the other isn’t so good). The good news is that Gardner is under cost control for a few more seasons so the Yankees can afford to employ him as a ‘special situation only’ reserve. The second thing is that its quite obvious that Brett Gardner can’t hit major league pitching well enough to play every day. So, the Yankees will never get much for him in a trade. In summary, Gardner is worth more to the Yankees than he is to another team.

  45. blake December 20th, 2009 at 10:55 am

    For the record I’m not a “we must sign holliday or the season is lost” fanatic. If the Yankees stopped right now and made no other moves then I feel like they would still have an excellent shot at repeating in 2010. I do feel that Holliday would make the team significantly better and would help bridge the gap between the old guard and the next core over the next five years. I don’t think he’s a must sign, but I don’t think he’s a bad sign either

  46. crawdaddy December 20th, 2009 at 10:56 am

    Phil the thrill,

    What’s going on buddy with the new handle? Why not Phil in LA or Phil (Buzah)?

  47. mick December 20th, 2009 at 10:56 am

    are you guys oblivious to the snow? ramble on rose…

  48. murphydog December 20th, 2009 at 10:57 am

    “I’m glad I don’t have to hear Pete chirp on about:

    - Bruce Springsteen
    - making snide comments about Yankee players
    - general “snarky” attitude.

    Now we just get the news without alot of nonsensical commentary and stupid remarks.”

    WARNING: Nasty, non-coddling, reply.

    No offense, Mr. Kevin Page. And I do really mean that. This is not directed at you necessarily, but I am fed up with the whining.

    I’m glad I’m old enough to have got my little league time in before it became the “self esteem” league. I love the work Sam, Chad and Josh are doing, but puhlease enough about big bad old Pete who didn’t stroke every adolescent ego that posts here. Some of the opinions you see around here are just plain dumb. Sorry but not every opinion is equal. Pete Abe had a point of view and it was clear. He was less homeroom teacher and guidance counselor and more Gym Teacher and Coach. Everybody here, yeah me too, wants to pretend they are GM material. Fine. But understand that in the real MLB world, a GM’s self-esteem is tested every ten or fifteen seconds and that’s the GMs who know what they are talking about and who grew up in baseball. Toughen up, cupcakes. Rant over.

  49. crawdaddy December 20th, 2009 at 10:58 am

    I would rather address the pitching staff than getting Holliday. If the Yankee Brass can do both of them within their so-called payroll parameters then that’s even better.

  50. mick December 20th, 2009 at 10:59 am

    Toughen up, cupcakes. Rant over.

    =====================================
    LOL Murph, what’s for dinner?

  51. blake December 20th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    GErorgeinJax, I said last years outfield was one of the weaker outfields in baseballs. I meant offensively and defensively. This years is better already because I count granderson as an upgrade over Damon especially defensively. Your right Holliday would be the cherry on top but they have already improved and some people don’t like cherries on their shakes.

  52. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    crawdaddy

    Questions about user names should really be posed to the other “Phil.”

  53. crawdaddy December 20th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    It might be me, but I think the posting activity is up since Pete left. Anyhow, he’s yesterday news and it doesn’t do any good to rehash about Pete’s postings or behavior when he was here. He’s gone and we have Chad, Sam and Josh now.

  54. viridiana December 20th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    Off topic, but has anyone noticed how the Red Sox have cemented their credentials as the sleaziest outfit in baseball?

    Trying to pawn off a player needing thumb surgery ranks right up there with some of their other moves of recent years: trying to trade sore-armed Brandon Lyon, bakcking out of done deal with the Rockies, meddling with Drew, and on an on.

    A wonder anybody deals with this bunch.

  55. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 11:02 am

    Tex – Read the excellent analysis on Melky / Gardner over at RAB or Yankee Universe…it might change your mind when you look at where Melky / Gardner stand in relation to other CF / LF in the league.

  56. bru December 20th, 2009 at 11:05 am

    Steve
    December 20th, 2009 at 10:02 am
    I can see us looking at trade options for Gardner/Melky and even Swisher. But here are some facts:

    1. Trading Swisher to free up salary for Bay or Holliday makes sense. I would not however trade SWisher to Atl. for Lowe. That makes no sense.

    2. I think that we would need to acquire a proven outfielder (either via trade or FA signing) before we could consider a trade of Gardner or Melky. I think we should keep Melky over Gardner unless Melky is part of package that nets us players who fill other needs.

    At minimum, Gardner is trade bait if we could get Damon back to be primary LF with Melky being primary back up in LF and part of rotation in CF and RF. Hoffman is intriguing but we need to see more of him before we can look at him as part of roster.

    ——————————————————–

    it makes no sense to trade swisher to clear salary for holliday while keeping melky

    now trading melky to clear salary for holliday makes sense

    holliday,cg,melky is not nearly as attractive as holliday,cg,swisher

    if we can get holliday for 16 or 17 million it would we wise to sign him & trade melky

  57. crawdaddy December 20th, 2009 at 11:05 am

    “crawdaddy

    Questions about user names should really be posed to the other “Phil.”

    I was wondering, Phil and I have been exchanging posts and private messages across three different Yankee sites for more than a few years now. Take one day off from the blog and all hell breaks loose.;)

  58. jpb1973 December 20th, 2009 at 11:08 am

    I would rather address the pitching staff than getting Holliday. If the Yankee Brass can do both of them within their so-called payroll parameters then that’s even better.

    ——————————————————

    I totally agree!!! One more experienced pitcher (either a starter or a reliever) is they need. Save the big money for next season’s FA class.

  59. Yankees Fan Living in Hostile Territory (BoSox area) December 20th, 2009 at 11:09 am

    I say Cabrera should go. He doesn’t act like he loves the game, doesn’t hustle out of the box, and just all around bugs me.

  60. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:10 am

    Thinking in terms of a pitcher v. a starter is misplaced. It’s about obtaining quality. There is no SP available that is as good as Holliday that can be obtained for money alone.

  61. blake December 20th, 2009 at 11:11 am

    Just curious, who would you like to save money for next year?

  62. bru December 20th, 2009 at 11:11 am

    melky’s production was ok for a cf but not for a lf

    combine that with the days cervelli catches & pena plays & it is a little rough

    i would sign holliday because any decent o.f. next year will cost as much or more than holliday now

    unless we like crawford or werth better

    sign holliday,trade melky

    if holliday signs for 17 million a year trading melky would be like getting him for 14 wich is a steal

  63. murphydog December 20th, 2009 at 11:11 am

    mick:

    Once I get my marching orders from Mrs. Dog, I’ll be off to the store. (Gotta see what’s left at the store after our blizzard).

    Right now some penne with grilled chicken in gorgonzola sauce with grilled red, green and yellow peppers is leading the pack, a little salad with vinaigrette and dried cranberries and of course some gorgonzola chunks. Gotta see what kind of white wine I have laying around the house…

  64. SJ44 December 20th, 2009 at 11:17 am

    Murph with the BEATDOWN! LOL

    Well said.

    I too am sick of the Pete bashing on here. It’s childish and idiotic.

    I had 2 choices of games to do this weekend. Baltimore or San Diego. I chose SD.

    One of the few times a 7 hour plane ride is worthwhile, given the weather in the NE today.

  65. pat December 20th, 2009 at 11:19 am

    Granderson and Gardner have started a total of 15 games combined in LF and Granderson, Gardner and Holliday have never played a ML inning in RF.

    All 32 major league innings that Hoffman has played have been in RF.

    Would you be comfortable today saying any of the above could play RF if the need to do so occurred for a week or a month or even as a late game defensve replacement?

    It’s easy to say trade Melky but he is the only one of the OFers who has currently spent ML time playing all 3 OF positions.

  66. E-gawa December 20th, 2009 at 11:19 am

    If they can move Melky, I think they will. He’s on High right now and they’ve been trying to move him for a while.

  67. crawdaddy December 20th, 2009 at 11:20 am

    “Thinking in terms of a pitcher v. a starter is misplaced. It’s about obtaining quality. There is no SP available that is as good as Holliday that can be obtained for money alone.”

    Send your arguments to Hal and Cash about misplaced thoughts. I’m looking at it as a simple payroll issue because Sheets will be a lot cheaper investment this year than Holliday and I’m not talking about the multi-year aspect of Holliday’s contract. Another thing, I’m not really comfortable with the starting pitching depth. Pitchers scare me because they’re so fragile in too many ways and the Yankees were lucky with relatively healthy pitching last season. I’m not so certain it will be the same this upcoming season since they went deep into the playoffs.

  68. randy l. December 20th, 2009 at 11:20 am

    “Po should get more rest behind the plate in 2010 and hopefully keep his bat in the lineup more games than last year.”

    murphydog-

    it’s not out of the question that the yankees will be scrambling for a back up catcher this summer.

    i would have signed molina and put cervelli at triple a to further learn his trade and get 450 or more at bats.

    if either catcher goes down the yankees face the prospect of having a journeyman back up catcher who can’t hit and doesn’t know the staff.

    he will however stop the ball from rolling to the back stop after every pitch, so bringing in this guy won’t be a total loss.

    i will be surprised if cervelli’s offensive numbers don’t look more like his minor league numbers than his major league numbers.

    i’m obviously not sold on cervelli at all.

    but if neither posada or cervelli go on the disabled list in 2010 and cervelli doesn’t regress to his minor league numbers my concern is unnecessary .

  69. bru December 20th, 2009 at 11:21 am

    jpb1973
    December 20th, 2009 at 11:08 am
    I would rather address the pitching staff than getting Holliday. If the Yankee Brass can do both of them within their so-called payroll parameters then that’s even better.

    ——————————————————

    I totally agree!!! One more experienced pitcher (either a starter or a reliever) is they need. Save the big money for next season’s FA class.

    ———————————————————–

    we might need 2 pitchers next year & any good o.f. is going to cost as much or more than holliday might get now.

    if we need an o.f. now we need one next year so unless we like crawford,werth better why not sign holliday

    if swisher & or melky’s production falls & one or both of hughes/joba do not perform we might need 2 pitchers & 2 o.f. but i think we probably need 1 each

    if we have the money to spend we need to spend it because winning is what put us on top of the sports world

    if the money is simply not there then fine but….

  70. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:22 am

    pat

    If you can play CF, you can play a corner OF position, or at least adjust to it fairly quickly.

    Some think you need a strong arm to play RF, and it’s nice to have that tool, but unless you’re Damonesque, an arm is the least important tool.

  71. Vader December 20th, 2009 at 11:22 am

    “I’m glad I’m old enough to have got my little league time in before it became the “self esteem” league.”

    Murph…I’m with you on that one, enjoy the weather…

  72. bru December 20th, 2009 at 11:23 am

    just imagine if tex signed with the rs

    this is not time to get cheap

    sign holliday,trade melky & either get a pitcher or wait for next years fa pitchers or trade for one

  73. Abdababdaserser December 20th, 2009 at 11:24 am

    Regarding the LF players who might be available next year and the ones available this year… I don’t see where Crawford ranks any higher than Holliday. The difference lies in the skill sets they have. Bay just isn’t in the same class as Holliday or Crawford.

    Werth could be an interesting addition to the mix and it seems that the Phillies might have trouble signing him again. Holliday and Werth seem similar in skills, though I lean toward Holliday, either one would be a decent upgrade over Melky playing in left.

    I would rank the LF players Holliday and Werth about even, Crawford the half step down (he has more speed but not the power threat that the others have).

    This is why I don’t see where waiting till next season does much in terms of upgrading left if the Yankees want to upgrade that position. Crawford may not even be available as Crawford is an important player for the Rays. They have others who can become the franchise face, but Crawford already is that, and teams do well to have a player long term for that role.

    If the Yanks are only looking at next season to upgrade one thing, they would look to signing Lee, IMO. He might end up replacing Andy’s slot in the rotation. Joba and Hughes will have their roles somewhat decided by then as well.

  74. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:25 am

    If they trade either one, I hope it’s Gardner. I’m not a fan at all. Not only is a lousy hitter, but he’s not even a great baserunner – he’s got Bernie Williams instincts, and Bernie didn’t have any instincts.

    We really should hold off any judging Hoffman positively or negatively until we see him play. I doubt he’s going to stick on the roster the whole year, which means he’s going back to LA.

  75. CB December 20th, 2009 at 11:26 am

    “Read the excellent analysis on Melky / Gardner over at RAB or Yankee Universe…it might change your mind when you look at where Melky / Gardner stand in relation to other CF / LF in the league.”

    That recently published piece on Gardner at Yankees Universe was a very poorly done with its use and discussion of statistical projections (which was the core of the piece). At times it was cringe inducing.

    There were mistakes in there that aren’t particularly different than the mistakes Joe Morgan makes during his telecasts.

    The misuse of statistical projections in baseball – often by people who don’t really seem to have much understanding of inferential statistics has become quite remarkable.

  76. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:28 am

    Melky is going to live forever off of those clutch hits last year……..He’s just not that good and I seriously doubt he has anything like the amount of walk off hits next year. I like him because he’s a 4th OF and he can play any of the OF positions – he’s not completely untalented – but fans are overrating him because he’s young.

  77. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:28 am

    “i will be surprised if cervelli’s offensive numbers don’t look more like his minor league numbers than his major league numbers.”

    Then that shouldn’t be a problem because Cervelli’s mL stats are fine:

    .273/.367/.380/747

    and better than his ML stats:

    .283/.294/.354/.648

    So I’m not sure what your point is.

  78. wallypip December 20th, 2009 at 11:28 am

    I think it’s worth noting how things have changed since they started testing for steroids. Ten years ago, .825+ OPS leftfielders grew on trees and you could easily have traded a young switch hitting CF for 30 HRs.

    I just spent the morning searching every roster for a spare outfielder with a LF quality bat and there isn’t one who is available who isn’t way overpriced. As much as I would prefer the Yankees to grab an average LF bat, I think it’s stupid to trade away any of their outfielders unless the payoff is someone who can help the team right now.

  79. randy l. December 20th, 2009 at 11:28 am

    sj44-

    what’s up with having 15 ” of rain dumped on my head in aventura the other night when i came down for a commencement?

    i looked it up and cape cod gets 43 inches of rain in a year.

    15 inches in 24 hours?

    wow.

  80. crawdaddy December 20th, 2009 at 11:29 am

    “if we have the money to spend we need to spend it because winning is what put us on top of the sports world

    if the money is simply not there then fine but….”

    Bru,

    I agree with you, if money isn’t an issue then signing Holliday makes sense with perhaps a rehabbing pitcher. However, if money is really an issue this year and you can only make an investment for around 9M or less than trying to get Sheets is the way to go or some other alternative like a cheaper rehabbing pitcher with perhaps a rehabbing Nady.

  81. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:29 am

    Jeff in NJ, what is wrong with Granderson and Swisher? Did either of them get worse during the off-season?

  82. CB December 20th, 2009 at 11:30 am

    “As the roster currently stands, I think the strongest lineup offense/defense is Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF. Gardner was a 2.1 WAR player last season in limited playing time.”

    If you want to make that argument on the basis of skill sets and tools – you can.

    But those conclusions really can’t be infered in a valid fashion from Gardner’s WAR stats last year.

  83. murphydog December 20th, 2009 at 11:31 am

    “i would have signed molina and put cervelli at triple a to further learn his trade and get 450 or more at bats.”

    randy l:

    My original instinct was with you. However, consider the Cashman mantra: younger, cheaper more athletic.

    If they lose Po for a limited period of time, Molina can do the catching for a while but he isn’t going to come even close as an offensive replacement. If they lose Po for a longer period, IMO, Molina can’t hack the everyday catching grind for an extended period, let alone the offensive chores. So, IMO, it’s kind of moot who replaces Po if he gets hurt. Might as well be Cervelli for a short term replacement, cheaper, younger, more athletic than Po. Note: I think Molina’s defense was slipping last year, but I could be wrong. Cervy showed surprising defensive chops and good relations with the starters and an occasional hit.

    Bottom line: IMO, Molina isn’t really insurance against a long term Posada loss and in the short term, Cervy may be an adequate defensive replacement at lower cost.

  84. Patrick December 20th, 2009 at 11:32 am

    Right now there is no need to trade cabrera or Gardner but if the yanks sign holliday or another left fielder then one of those guys is redundant

  85. pat December 20th, 2009 at 11:32 am

    Rich in NJ

    In theory, absolutely but I’m a show me kind of gal.

    Until they have, I’m not willing to pack off the only guy who has shown he can because it would save a million dollars unless the return is well worth it.

  86. bru December 20th, 2009 at 11:33 am

    i thought someone stole my car

    i finally found it under a foot of snow

    just spent almost 2 hours digging out so i can work a lousy 4 hours today

  87. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:33 am

    Noreaster, those ? people have about Holliday hitting in the AL are silly and make no sense whatsoever. Pitchers have major issues adjusting from the NL to AL, but hitting is the same wherever you go. I don’t know why people keep forgetting this, but Oakland is a terrible place (and that’s being kind) for hitters. I could barely watch the Yankee games (on tv) there, it was so awful.

  88. yankswin27 December 20th, 2009 at 11:35 am

    http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ang-21487/

  89. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:35 am

    Rich, I disagree – CG is a centerfielder and we have one of the very best. If we move him to LF, he’s just an ordinary LF. Also, I do not like Gardner at all and there is absolutely no way he sees the light of day in any lineup I would post for the Yankees…..well, maybe as a PR.

  90. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:35 am

    “If you want to make that argument on the basis of skill sets and tools – you can.

    But those conclusions really can’t be infered in a valid fashion from Gardner’s WAR stats last year.”

    I’m only using Gardner’s WAR last season as an indication that he may have the potential to be a very useful player when viewed in tandem with his defense. It would be silly to use his WAR as a valid basis for projection based on such a small sample size.

  91. CB December 20th, 2009 at 11:36 am

    “I think it’s worth noting how things have changed since they started testing for steroids. Ten years ago, .825+ OPS leftfielders grew on trees and you could easily have traded a young switch hitting CF for 30 HRs.”

    This is probably overstating the case some, but I do agree that OF play and production right now isn’t particularly strong across baseball.

    There are comparatively few high quality outfielders in the game compared to the recent past.

  92. RhapsodyInBlue December 20th, 2009 at 11:37 am

    Balmy Saratoga county spared of the white stuff.

  93. David in Cal December 20th, 2009 at 11:37 am

    I agree with Chad. Also, we don’t know how Hoffman will do. There’s a good chance he won’t hit on a major league level, and will have to go back to LA. We should keep all 3 at least through spring training.

    If the Yanks carry 11 pitchers, they will have room for 5 outfielders, 1 DH, 2 catchers, and 2 backup infielders. If they want 12 pitchers or a 3rd catcher, they will have room for only 1 extra OF or 1 extra IF. It’s more flexible to carry on 1 extra OF, because Pena can play OF if necessary.

  94. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:38 am

    Betsy,

    Right now, we don’t have a true LF. My point is that given the current makeup of the roster, there is a better chance that Gardner can be a good CF (offense/defense) than there is that Melky can be a good LF.

    There are also questions about Granderson’s declining CF defense that need to be resolved.

  95. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:40 am

    SJ, as a Bears fan, I’m sure you chose the right game. I’m not sure who SD is playing, but it’s bound to be a competitive game. The Bears stink to put it kindly – expect Baltimore to blow them out.

  96. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:40 am

    pat

    “In theory, absolutely but I’m a show me kind of gal.”

    I hear ya, but the irony about the Yankees’ payroll is that while it is by far the largest in MLB, it has very little room at the margins, so sometimes decisions have to be made on projections rather than on demonstrated talent.

  97. Bill O December 20th, 2009 at 11:40 am

    I’d definitely be willing trade Melky and/or Gardner. Whichever one of them starts in LF is probably only a 1 year starter. I mean with the rest of our lineup we have the flexibility to put a weak bat in LF, but over the long run neither is a starter in the corner OF. And with guys like Crawford and Werth available in free agency next year there is a good chance that we sign a corner OF next offseason.

    Now with that said both Melky and Gardner are still valuable to the team this year. With Jackson gone we have little OF depth in the minors. Hoffman could help provide some depth, but who knows what we’ll get out of him.

    I’d trade either Melky or Gardner but we’d need to get either A) an upgrade in LF B) a good starting pitcher or C) a good prospect. Right now I don’t know that any team is going to be that willing to give up any of those. Maybe we could get someone like DeJesus, but right now that seems like the only real feasible option and saying that is DeJesus a significant upgrade in LF? Maybe.

  98. RhapsodyInBlue December 20th, 2009 at 11:41 am

    Considering that Cervelli was promoted from AA, if we are in dire straights for a catcher say in July 2010, just how far is Romine from the Bronx?

    Say he advances and plays well right out of camp this spring.

    Not an option?

  99. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 11:41 am

    Viridiana/betsy-

    V. keep telling it like it is. I made those points yesterday.
    Couldn’t have happened to a nicer franchise. How about breaking the rules on Tazawa. Add that to your list.

    Betsy-
    I,m with you on Gardener. Like the speed but that’s about it.
    It’s a good thing he is lightning fast because the routes he takes require a cheetah to make them work. And the guy REALLY needs to learn how to bunt. That would make him much more effective offensively. A LOST art.

  100. randy l. December 20th, 2009 at 11:42 am

    “So I’m not sure what your point is.”

    it’s a minor point because the yankees are loaded compared to everyone else, but cevelli’s minor league stats don’t show a good hitter. he has a lifetime .702 ops.

    i just think the yankees are taking a highly optimistic view of what his possibilities are for 2010.

    last year was a small sample. no team had much of a book on cervelli. with him being scheduled in for 50 plus games, i think he’ll find hitting a little more difficult than last year.

    i realize this is not a big concern at back up cacther , but i think it’s a small misplaying of the cards by giving cervelli the back up job.

    there’s no final answer to know at this point. we’ll have to see what happens. i’m on record with my concerns about cervelli. we’ll see who’s right.

    i could be wrong, and i have no problem with being wrong when it means the yankees come out better than i think they will.

  101. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:42 am

    Romine is not a ML out of ST.

  102. Erin December 20th, 2009 at 11:43 am

    Betsy – high on pie
    December 20th, 2009 at 11:40 am
    SJ, as a Bears fan, I’m sure you chose the right game. I’m not sure who SD is playing, but it’s bound to be a competitive game. The Bears stink to put it kindly – expect Baltimore to blow them out.

    *********************
    Betsy, you’re a Bears fan? I’m so sorry. ;)

  103. Patrick December 20th, 2009 at 11:43 am

    If you trust Gardner’s UZR numbers from the past 2 seasons then he has the potential to be an elite defender in CF. Obviously the sample size here is too small but he’s shown elite range thus far. That being the case, I could see an outfield of Granderson-Gardner-Swisher being the best alignment.

    Granderson is an above average fielder in CF but he’d be one of the better LF’s in the league. Gardner might be one of the top fielders in CF and if he continues developing with the bat I could see him being an above average CF.

    If no other moves are made I think that’s a decent idea to put Granderson in LF and Gardner in center.

  104. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 11:44 am

    Betsy-

    You missed your chance on the snowblower but I could still send some emergency rations, and a warm blanket !

  105. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:44 am

    Cash talked about Molina – he has serious concerns about Molina’s durability. He basically said that he can’t play too often as he’ll get hurt…………That’s not the kind of backup catcher the Yankees want, not at that price especially. I do agree that the Yankees had better sign a better BUC than Chris Stewart or whomever they have at AAA.

  106. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 11:45 am

    Abda-

    Just wanted to say that i enjoy your posts.

  107. RhapsodyInBlue December 20th, 2009 at 11:46 am

    Agreed Rich, but I wondered if Romine would/could be a mid-season consideration if he plays well from spring up to that point.

  108. Patrick December 20th, 2009 at 11:46 am

    Cervelli can’t possibly be worse at the plate in 2010 than Molina was in 2009. Nobody expects anything at the plate from a backup catcher. Cervelli is a great receiver, he’ll be fine as the backup to Posada.

  109. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 11:46 am

    Sorry, CB, typo….

    That should have read RAB on Yankee Universe…

    as in RAB’s work on talking about what Yankee Universe said.

  110. GeorgeInJax December 20th, 2009 at 11:47 am

    Melky only makes $3M for a 25yo with a really good defense, good outfield arm, still developing his power.

    He’s at the same point Bernie was in his career. I’m not saying he’ll have as huge a breakout 4th year as Bernie, but he is due for his breakout this year.

  111. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:47 am

    Rich, who said CG’s defense was declining? He apparently had a few bad games in CF last year, but still – it’s just a few games.

    The Yankees should trade for a LF. I do not want to sign Carl Crawford (and he may not be available); he’s simply not worth a big contract. Once his legs go, that’s it.

  112. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 11:47 am

    Mick-

    Didn’t you PROMISE someone that they could have Holliday for Xmas.

    I hope you dont have to let them down.

    Children cry easily but they get over it just as fast.

    We have been attuned on the Holliday thing in many ways.

  113. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 11:48 am

    Rhapsody – where in Saratoga County?

  114. RhapsodyInBlue December 20th, 2009 at 11:49 am

    Phil

    Clifton Park

  115. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:49 am

    “it’s a minor point because the yankees are loaded compared to everyone else, but cevelli’s minor league stats don’t show a good hitter. he has a lifetime .702 ops.”

    The Baseball Cube has him at .747

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....elli.shtml

    Last season, an AL league average catcher hit:

    .254/.316/.408/.718

    That Cervelli was able to put up:

    .283..294/.354/.648

    while learning on the job is impressive.

    He’s never going to be a great bat, and he could probably use a little more time at AAA, but I think he’s better than Molina right now.

    I see him as a backup, first to Posda, then to Montero or Romine, or maybe a trade chip down the line. If he proves he can start, then he becomes a valuable chip.

  116. randy l. December 20th, 2009 at 11:49 am

    ” Molina isn’t really insurance against a long term Posada loss and in the short term, Cervy may be an adequate defensive replacement at lower cost.”

    murphydog-

    if cervelli was at triple a and getting lots of at bats and posada went down, i would have wanted cervelli to split the starting catching job with molina for the very reasons you say about molina wearing down if he plays too much.

    in my scenario when cervelli started at the mlb level because of injury he’d have a ton of at bats at triple a and be more ready to jump in.

  117. viridiana December 20th, 2009 at 11:50 am

    People are dismissing Gardner much too quickly. All he has to do is learn ot chop the ball to the left side more often and he can add at least 30 points to his BA. The Yankees did him a disservice a couple of years back trying to make him a pull hiiter. If he just beats the ball into thground a bit more he will easily hit .300 and have the opportunity to steal 60 bases. Ridiculous to trade him now. At the very least, he an invaluable and irreplaceable late inning force off the bench in tight games.

  118. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:51 am

    Erin, lol. It’s a shame because it looked like they were going to be very good this year…….but Cutler has not been good, Urlacher (who I’m starting to dislike more every day) has missed the whole season and Lovie and co. are awful. IMO, Lovie has to go….but so does GM Angelo. Unfortunately, they don’t have any draft picks this year due to trading for Cutler, so rebuilding won’t be easy. As the Yanks won the WS, though…….I can take the Bears failure. It’s just embarrassing to see the signal franchise of the NFL in such a sorry state.

  119. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 11:51 am

    Nick-

    Do you really believe the Yankees have not made any type of offer to Boras? Even in theory. If so, I am not sure I can concur.

    Did you see the article I posted earlier this thread on how some agents may be hurting their clients chances this year.

    I agreed with it. Boras needs to go in for a wheel alignment.

  120. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:52 am

    Betsy

    His UZR/150 has gone from 14.1 in 2006, to 12.9 in 2007 to -9.4 in 2008 to 1.6. The trendline is a concern.

    I agree that we need an upgrade in LF.

  121. CB December 20th, 2009 at 11:52 am

    I would not move Granderson from CF. His own defensive problems seem largely to have arisen from some plays late in the season.

    It’s far too small a sample of games to move him from his position. And even one season isn’t enough evidence that one would want to move him off a position you would hope he could anchor for at least the next 3-4 years.

    People seem to be giving Gardner an inordinant amount of credit for a small body of work – one that is clearly colored by selection bias – while at the same time dinging Granderson based on a relatively small sample of games.

    It is far too difficult to find a strong two way CF to just move Granderson off the position because of some theoretical benefit Brett Gardner could provide.

  122. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 11:52 am

    Rhapsody – we are neighbors…I’m over in Halfmoon.

  123. GeorgeInJax December 20th, 2009 at 11:52 am

    Imagine if the organization would have traded Bernie for an aging veteran.

    The Yanks have a history of trading away developing talent & we’ve suffered for it.

    It wasn’t till we started hanging on to some in house players that the Yanks became perennial contenders Posada, Pettite, Mo, Bernie. Key free agents are essential for adding to a team, but the identity comes from in house.

  124. Baseball Guy December 20th, 2009 at 11:53 am

    Let me just change the subject for a quick moment -

    I’d like to say a BIG THANK YOU to Josh, Chad, and Sam for the OUTSTANDING work they have done with this blog.

    As with most here, I thought Pete Abe did a great job and was concerned when he announced he was leaving. I worried that there would be less news, fewer posts, and a LoHud Blog that wasn’t up to the old standards.

    This blog had become my first spot for up-to-date Yankee news and I was concerned that I’d have to find a new place to go to get breaking news and good analysis.

    What I have seen over the last few months is an EVEN BETTER LOHUD YANKEES BLOG.

    These three writers are FANTASTIC!

    I just wanted to thank them for their great work and let them know it has been GREATLY appreciated.

  125. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:53 am

    MTU – please send Fed EX, lol. It looks like we are going to be hunkered down here all day – the snowplows haven’t even started yet. Hmm, I wonder if I’ll be able to go to work tomorrow?

  126. CB December 20th, 2009 at 11:53 am

    “That should have read RAB on Yankee Universe…

    as in RAB’s work on talking about what Yankee Universe said.”

    I did read it. The overall point they are making is the right one, but to be honest, the discussion of the statistics involved wasn’t particularly sound.

  127. m December 20th, 2009 at 11:54 am

    I made a comment yesterday about who was going to take Swisher’s contract off our hands? I don’t know why, but I thought he was going to make $12m in his last season. Looks like he’s at $6.85m this season and $9.1m next season. Lower than I thought, but still a potential obstacle in moving the player. Now, if teams think they’re trading for Swisher 2009, then yeah, they might pull the trigger. But there’s also Swisher 2008 fresh in gm’s minds, too. Anyway, the point is that salaries have come down to the point that teams can pick up the Abreus and Damons for cheap. And I think we decided yesterday that the Swisher was a good player worth keeping. Because, obviously, you’d have to replace him with somebody. And in the dream scenario of some here that would be with melky in RF and Holliday in LF. But in this scenario Swisher>>melky.

    Neither Gardner nor melky or going to bring back much in a trade. Seriously, folks, they’re both role players. And melky is good enough to be a starting OF, but a relatively weak one by Yankee standards.

    If I were Cashman, I’d hold onto all the players. If (Big IF) we sign Holliday or upgrade LF another way, then Gardner back to AAA, melky to the bench,and Hoff to the bench if he sticks. Obviously Gardner would stay with the Yankees if Hoff doesn’t stick.

    Why would we keep Cabrera? He’s going to be paid too much for a 4th OF.

    Why would we trade Gardner? He’s the perfect PR/4OF/role player.

    Gardner’s ceiling is undoubtedly lower than melky’s, but melky’s had years (3+?) of major league experience. Gardner’s had barely a full year? I wouldn’t knock Gardner too much at this point, he’s basically a rookie.

  128. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:55 am

    “It’s far too small a sample of games to move him from his position. And even one season isn’t enough evidence that one would want to move him off a position you would hope he could anchor for at least the next 3-4 years.”

    The sample size is on possible Granderson’s defensive decline is three seasons. Now, maybe his problems are correctable, and I can understand the case for leaving him in CF, but there is some legitimate reason for concern.

  129. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 11:57 am

    V-
    I agree with you about gardener but I have something else to think about.

    He would be greatly improved IMO if he would indeed master the Baltimore chop or slow roller.

    Also, if he could learn to be a great drag bunter.

    these seem to be lost arts for many Ball players.

    Don’t they teach the fundamentals in the Minors anymore ?

    What I would really like to say is, Wat if Gardener just cant master those skills ? Not everyone can. Maybe he just needs to change his approach ?

    I nicknamed him Noodle bat.

  130. RhapsodyInBlue December 20th, 2009 at 11:57 am

    Good Deal Phil.

    I’m shopping for a house locally, sold my place in Saratoga.

  131. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 11:57 am

    “People seem to be giving Gardner an inordinant amount of credit for a small body of work ”

    At least speaking for myself, I wouldn’t call it an inordinate amount of credit. I would term it trying to determine whether his small sample of effectiveness has any generalizablity.

  132. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 11:58 am

    Betsy-

    If you are lucky you wont have to. Pray those snowplows dont show up !

  133. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 11:59 am

    Rich, I don’t know what UZR is or what those #s mean, but I agree with CB. We all agree that we should upgrade LF………It doesn’t have to be Holliday, but I would like a nice, steady player – that would be fine.

  134. OldYanksFan December 20th, 2009 at 11:59 am

    2009 wRC+
    Cabrera: 102
    Gardner: 107

    2009 WAR
    Cabrera: 1.6
    Gardner: 2.1

    Career OF URZ/150
    Cabrera: (LF) 4
    Cabrera: (CF) -5.9
    Gardner: (LF) 36.8 (caution: SSS)
    Gardner: (CF) 27.6 (caution: SSS)

    Career OPS+
    Cabrera: 88
    Gardner: 80

    Career PA/SBs/SB%
    Cabrera: 2148 / 44 / 75.8%
    Gardner: 425 / 39 / 86.6%

    Again, basically ALL of Brett’s stats are SSS

  135. CB December 20th, 2009 at 11:59 am

    “The sample size is on possible Granderson’s defensive decline is three seasons.”

    Far too much is being read into UZR data. The variance in the metrics isn’t being accounted for nearly enough.

    If I told you that Granderson’s UZR from 2009 was actually 6.6 would you feel better?

    If one were to apply rigorous time series analysis methods to the analysis of UZR data at a seasonal level it wouldn’t hold up.

  136. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 12:00 pm

    A lot of deals to be had in the CP and Mechanicville area. Two new developments up in Mech dropped their pricing significantly.

  137. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 12:01 pm

    Betsy-

    not everyone agrees that we need to upgrade LF.
    some do some dont.

  138. CB December 20th, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    “Again, basically ALL of Brett’s stats are SSS”

    It’s not only that they are SSS – they are subject to selection bias.

    Baseball has tons of data – but nearly all of it is non-experimental data. Drawing inference from it is very difficult, particularly when trying to compare melky and gardner.

  139. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    MTU, if they don’t show up, I won’t be getting out of my house anytime soon, lol. We got a LOT of snow…..

  140. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 12:03 pm

    m

    “Gardner’s ceiling is undoubtedly lower than melky’s”

    I disagree. I think Melky is probably what he has shown: slightly above league average defense and slightly below average offensive.

    It’s harder to project what Gardner is because of the smaller sample size, but he has shown some signs of plus (if not plus plus) defense. His offense is much more difficult to project. At times he is awful, at other times has had been very good. If he can stop uppercutting, he may be able to be a decent hitter. Plus his SB ability adds value. By way of comparison, it’s a large part of Ellsbury’s value.

    Garder does have more boom/bust potential than Melky. Melky is the safer bet.

  141. m December 20th, 2009 at 12:03 pm

    Weren’t a lot of the questions about Holliday prompted by his road splits away from Coors Field?

    And the quality of pitching is better in the AL than the NL imo. The quality of the hitters is better in the AL, too. Not significantly, but something to consider.

  142. CB December 20th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

    “I would term it trying to determine whether his small sample of effectiveness has any generalizablity.”

    Statistics can’t tell you that – almost by definition given the context of the player.

    Generalizability would require analysis of qualitative data. And that’s what scouting and talent evaluation is.

  143. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 12:05 pm

    “Far too much is being read into UZR data. The variance in the metrics isn’t being accounted for nearly enough.”

    Of course it is, that’s why I used the word POSSIBLE.

    “If I told you that Granderson’s UZR from 2009 was actually 6.6 would you feel better?”

    Not really. That’s why I spoke of trendlines.

    “If one were to apply rigorous time series analysis methods to the analysis of UZR data at a seasonal level it wouldn’t hold up.”

    That’s why I posted multiple seasons.

  144. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 12:06 pm

    MTU – that’s true. I don’t get it, but to each his own I suppose.

  145. Phil December 20th, 2009 at 12:06 pm

    -Looks like Nick Johnson played 2 games for the 2002 Yankees. I wonder if Girardi would ever consider running him out there. I would guess no, except in extreme emergencies.

    -With Nick J in the fold, I wonder if there is still a price low enough that Cashman would bring Damon back to LF? There are just so few teams where Damon could play right now.

  146. OldYanksFan December 20th, 2009 at 12:06 pm

    I would suggest everyone… but especially JeterJobaCanoFan2010 (and Dude!!! Are you really quoting fielding% ????)

    http://oneifbylandsports.blogs.....balls.html

  147. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

    CB-

    Would you consider answering a question for me since I am by nature a curious person. I will be perfectly fine with it if you do not care to answer.

    Are you a reasearch scientist. Possibly a Biology type.

    It is obvious your have a command of Statistics and probability.

    You seem formally trained to me.

    You might also be a mathematician but they are usually a lot more boring than you are.

    I’m thinking some type of researcher maybe a college type.

    I’d love to test my perceptive powers. Thanks in advance if you care to answer.

  148. Derek December 20th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

    I think the Yankees are always open to making a deal that will save them money with equal, or almost equal production coming back, but I don’t know how I feel about this Cubs talk.
    I know the Cubs need a CF, but so do plenty of other teams. No one has thrown out any names as far as who would come to NY in that deal.
    Melky’s bat, while not great, is serviceable in a lineup like this, and Gardner’s speed is an asset coming off the bench and late in games in the OF. I think Swisher is dreadfully overrated. He is a mediocre RF at best, and while he sees a lot of pitches, he swings and misses too much for him to be a force offensively. Again, he’s saved by the rest of the lineup, but I think he might be the most expendable player (other than the rule 5 guy, Hoffman (sp.)).
    I don’t think Holliday will be a Yankee, and I don’t think they’re making any moves with Chicago. I think the team is solid at this point and they put their efforts towards signing a reclamation project like Sheets.

    This is my opinion, of course.

  149. bru December 20th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

    GeorgeInJax
    December 20th, 2009 at 11:52 am
    Imagine if the organization would have traded Bernie for an aging veteran.

    The Yanks have a history of trading away developing talent & we’ve suffered for it.

    It wasn’t till we started hanging on to some in house players that the Yanks became perennial contenders Posada, Pettite, Mo, Bernie. Key free agents are essential for adding to a team, but the identity comes from in house.

    ———————————————————-

    trading melky & signing holliday makes us better by miles & miles & we still have robertson,jeter,po,pettitte,mo,joba,hughes,cervelli,pena,gardner & tons of other prospects

    free agents always made up the bulk of our team & we have more of our own helping us now than at any time i can remember so signing holliday & trading melky does not change that

    we have several pitching & catching prospects

    the way i look at it is we lost a little with cg because of his limitations against lh pitching & we lost a lot of production from nj over matsui so we are simply not as good now as last year

    maybe we don’t have to be??

    time will tell but if the money is there we need to try to get better bysigning MH.

    can you imagine this lineup

    jeter
    nj
    tex
    arod
    holliday
    posada
    cano
    swisher
    cg

    absolutely insane & it takes a ton of pressure off the pitching & eliminated the need to spend 10 million on a pitcher wich is money saved

    combine maybe saving money on another starting pitcher because holliday is on board,trading melky shaving 3 million off payroll & holliday being well worth 16-18 million if we can get him for that & he is worth that it makes all the sense in the world

  150. MTU December 20th, 2009 at 12:08 pm

    Betsy-

    I know. i grew up there. that’s one of the reason’s I left.

  151. CB December 20th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

    “Not really. That’s why I spoke of trendlines.”

    Three data points – isn’t much of a trendline.

    And if one of those three data points went from 1.6 to 6.6 it would have to have a significant impact on the conclusions drawn from that trendline.

    And the multiple seasons of data from Granderson – 3 – in discussion wouldn’t hold up to rigorously done analyses.

  152. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

    “Statistics can’t tell you that – almost by definition given the context of the player.”

    No, but they provide a basis for seeking further observations. IOW, if his performance was poor in a SSS, it might end the inquiry.

    “Generalizability would require analysis of qualitative data.”

    That is an overly narrow way to view the issue, and unhelpful in this context.

  153. randy l. December 20th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

    “Cervelli can’t possibly be worse at the plate in 2010 than Molina was in 2009. Nobody expects anything at the plate from a backup catcher. Cervelli is a great receiver, he’ll be fine as the backup to PosadA”

    patrick-

    i hope your prediction is better than it was when you said similar optimistic things about kennedy and hughes back in 2008.

    but we’re both on record here.

    you have a chance to beat me on this one.

    we’ll see .

    i think predicting and keeping track is part of the fun of the blog and of following a sport.

    people who sound really smart , but who don’t predict much don’t impress me much.

    i will say you aren’t shy about those predictions.

    people know right where you stand.

  154. bru December 20th, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    MTU
    December 20th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
    Betsy-

    not everyone agrees that we need to upgrade LF.
    some do some dont.

    ———————————————————–

    everybody on the planet would agree that we are much better with holliday in left field though

    also if we sign holliday it just might eliminate the need to spend 10 million or so on another pitcher

    then we wait for a fa pitcher next year or trade for a younger more cost controlled one as soon as we can

    if the money is there & holliday makes us much much better why not do it if we can????

    it’s like you have the money to fix yer house up but you don’t wan’t to spend the money

  155. m December 20th, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    Rich,

    Let’s put it this way, I think that melky’s reached his ceiling.

    He’s also going to stop being valuable as his pay will outpace his contribution (imo).

    If he’s the starting OF, then yes, he’s valuable. But I can’t picture him being a Yankee starter for the next however many years you want to project it. Cash only now took care of CF. But how much longer will he let Swisher and Cabrera be the other two starters? Especially if Damon and Abreu are history?

    Gardner’s valuable because he’s cheap. And he’s athletic. :lol:

  156. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 12:18 pm

    “Three data points – isn’t much of a trendline.”

    When the player has been in the MLs for six seasons it is.

    “And if one of those three data points went from 1.6 to 6.6 it would have to have a significant impact on the conclusions drawn from that trendline.”

    Similarly, if last season’s data point was -14, the impact would be just as significant.

    “And the multiple seasons of data from Granderson – 3 – in discussion wouldn’t hold up to rigorously done analyses.”

    If you want to ignore the trend by postulating hypothetical changes in the data points, that’s your right, but you are overlooking potential red flags that shouldn’t be ignored.

  157. GeorgeInJax December 20th, 2009 at 12:20 pm

    Bru,
    The lineup you propose would be awesome.
    Holliday absolutely is an upgrade offensively.
    My point is that if a deal isn’t done we still have a great team. Other posters have suggested a bunch of mediocre OF/DH acquisitions that don’t make sense to me. We don’t have to be a group of mercenaries. that’s what I love about Cashman keeping a balance of free agents and home grown talent.

  158. stuckey December 20th, 2009 at 12:23 pm

    “Stuckey, if that’s your opinion then that’s fine. We don’t have to agree.. blogs are for opinions, you have yours and Ill have mine.”

    Blake, you just didn’t express an opinion about Holliday or Cabrera, you criticized your fellow posters for having “flawed logic”. Which is fine, I have ZERO problem with you doing so.

    I was merely pointing out that in fact you were criticizing the logic of a strawman of your invention.

    Not sure why we’re getting into the “right to your opinion” cliche.

    Did I do anything different that what you thought you were doing?

  159. viridiana December 20th, 2009 at 12:23 pm

    MTU, I guess we can’t know for sure but Gardner makes enough contact for me to believe he’d be more than competent with a shortened storke diesigned to hit ground balls. I think he’s already a pretty good bunter.

    The real issue for this team as I see it will not be resolved by signing Matt Holliday or dumping one of our young outfielders. The issue is we will never again be able to get through three rounds of playoffs with just CC, AJ and Andy. Is there anyone who believes Andy could again go 4-0 next October?

    The singular focus at this point has to be on acquiring another front-line pitcher capable of performing well in a playoff rotation.

  160. bru December 20th, 2009 at 12:25 pm

    melky has 1 more year
    & if his numbers do not climb he has to go & imo he will

    he is becoming more expensive

    swishers contract is not that bad & it would make no sense to trade him & his 30 hr & .370 obp while keeping melky

    either the pitching needs to get much better or we sign holliday

    i think if we sign holliday we can wait for next years fa pitchers because our lineup is nasty & should cover the pitchings weakness if not huge

    but if we can trade for a frontline starter i would not mind going with the lineup we have

    but i am not sure we can land a frontline starter now
    this is why i think we should sign holliday & not spend the 6-10 million on a pitcher with huge risks

  161. bru December 20th, 2009 at 12:30 pm

    GeorgeInJax

    i agree about the mediocre players but without the 3 great mercenary signings last year we don’t come close

    imo i think cash is going to spend 8-10 million on a huge risk pitcher when it might be better spent on holliday eliminating the need for that pitcher & making our lineup absolutely insane unless we do both

    the reality is we are better with holliday in lf over melky.

    not even close so if we can do it we should

  162. Betsy - high on pie December 20th, 2009 at 12:31 pm

    Swisher is fine in RF – I really don’t get the problems people are having with him. The Yankees love him – they don’t have a problem with him.

    Holliday will just end up being another burdensome contract – we’ve got a ton of those. I do think we need major upgrade in LF – possibly a trade?

    As to pitching, I’m starting to be more inclined to just letting Joba and Phil go. I think Phil will be a stud, but not in 2010 – in 2010, he’s just going to be a #5 pitcher and that’s what he’ll pitch like. That’s fine. If Joba pitches well (doesn’t have to be great), then we’re probably ok…….with the added bonus that we now have 2 young pitchers on their way to major league success. The problem is (and it’s why I think Joba is the key) that I have no idea what we will get from Joba, none at all.

    I’m fine with going after Sheets (but that’s not happening until January it seems), but who knows if he’ll even want to come here? He may want to stay in the weak NL…..he may not want to come to the Yankees period.

  163. stuckey December 20th, 2009 at 12:35 pm

    “it’s like you have the money to fix yer house up but you don’t wan’t to spend the money.”

    Actually… to play out your analogy. Since baseball is a competition, the apt analogy is putting your on the market, and making wise decisions as to what upgrades and improvements you need to make, or will get a positive return on, before placing it on the market.

    Any realator worth two bits will tell you to spend money (if necessary) updating your kitchen and then bathrooms, and if you do, choose quality, contemporary, but simple, neutral materials. Choosing to redo a bathroom in top of the line Italian marble is an investment you won’t receive a positive return on.

    The 9th place in the order isn’t even a kitchen or a bathroom, however. It’s more like a screened porch. Spending elaborately to upgrade it makes the house nicer, and you may enjoy it more while you’re trying to sell, and it might even make it a LITTLE more attractive to a buyer, but it’s STILL not a smart investment.

    Not a question of whether you have the money in checking account to cover the costs. It’s a question of the wisdom of the investment.

  164. bru December 20th, 2009 at 12:37 pm

    viridiana

    i agree but if 1 of hughes/joba do well we are ok

    i think we should package joba with some prospects for a young frontline more cost controlled pitcher as soon as we can.maybe at the break

    i just don’t think we are better with sheets or the other pitcher from oakland

    what happens if we sign one & it fails & we don’t have holliday?

    at least holliday makes our lineup insane & takes pressure off the pitching

    if joba has a good year we should be fine

    if both joba & hughes struggle we might be in rough shape

  165. CB December 20th, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    “That is an overly narrow way to view the issue, and unhelpful in this context.”

    Not at all. There’s no sampling in the data. As such “any generalizability” would depend on the conceptual and theoretical basis underlying the analysis – it’s not going to be found in the data.

    Qualitative analysis can be extended from that theoretical basis in ways in which data can’t.

    “When the player has been in the MLs for six seasons it is.”

    No its not. The problem still stands – and this is a very common problem with time series analysis of “trends.” In fact it’s one of the chief limitations. The unit of analysis often doesn’t provide enough data points to establish anything as a valid “trend.”

    That’s just the way it is and what that forces the analyst to do is to temper any conclusions that might be drawn and not chalk something up as a true “trend.”

  166. CB December 20th, 2009 at 12:44 pm

    “If you want to ignore the trend by postulating hypothetical changes in the data points, that’s your right, but you are overlooking potential red flags that shouldn’t be ignored.”

    It’s not hypothetical at all. UZR error rate is around +/- 5 runs.

    So Granderson’s uzr could very well have been 6.6 rather than 1.6. Coversely, it could have been -3.4.

    That’s not hypothetical.

  167. bru December 20th, 2009 at 12:51 pm

    stuckey

    the yankees usually overpay for every player

    that is changing now

    any time we can get a holliday in line with what the rest of the league will pay & he is worth it it is wise to do so because we are much better with him & if we don’t need an o.f. now we probably do next year unless melky takes off wich i don’t see happening

    crawford,werth,etc will cost as much or more

    pick your poison

    yes we can survive with melky but holliday makes us much much better.

    why chance it if the money is there & we don’t grossly overpay?

    i think there are calculations if i am correct that i believe cb pointed out that might put hollidays worth at over 16-18 million

    how do we know that signing a pitcher is the right thing to do??

    holliday gives us a better lineup than last year with the same rotation but the rotation is deeper

    if joba does well we might be fine

  168. Patrick December 20th, 2009 at 12:55 pm

    randy,

    You will never let go of 2008 will you? :(

    Lucky for me, even if Cervelli is somehow worse than Molina at the plate it doesn’t change much. Both guys are good on defense, both have weak bats. Back-up catchers have little value, even if my prediction is wrong it won’t really effect the team.

    That is, unless Posada goes down for an extended period of time.

    Want some more predictions? Ok.

    Joba and Hughes will both be above average starters this year, if given the opportunity. I’ve said time and time again, I don’t want another starter on this team unless it’s for insurance – like a Chad Gaudin type of guy to be the 6th starter. It’s time Joba and Phil step up and pitch well in the rotation.

  169. The Ghost December 20th, 2009 at 12:56 pm

    Melky is poised for a breakout year in 2010. He has already accomplish 10x more than “the great” Granderson had accomplished by his 25th year – people always forget how young Melky was when he started. He has gotten better every year but one and had a very good year this year. Everyone forgets the clutch hits in the off season and just looks at the numbers. I can count over 10 games this year where Melky made a pivotal play to win the game yet his average went down. He’s always been a good luck player and that’s because he always does what it takes to win. I’d rather have .250 hitter like Melky on my team than an uninspired .300 hitter (hello Robinson Cano..)

  170. Ed H. December 20th, 2009 at 12:57 pm

    As CB said, baseball stats are by and large descriptive of past performance rather than predictive of future performances. Inferences can, and often are made based upon stats, but those are individual judjments rather than statistically based predictions.

    My point above was that the small sample size for Brett Gardner makes it unwise to be the basis for forming a conclusion. Not only is the number small but it is even less valid as a basis upon which to estimate future performance for two important reasons.

    Gardner’s performance is a moving target because not only is the sample size small but he is at the beginning of his career. One would expect there to be potential for improvement in each of the areas of Gardner’s game (hitting, fielding, base running.) In fact, there was sizeable improvement in his performance from his cup of coffee in the majors in ’08 and his very limited numbers in ’09. Gardner can be expected to continue to adjust to the league and the league will continue to adjust to him. Where does the competitive balance finally lie? We really don’t know. Small sample size, moving target.

    The other reasons why conclusions cannot be drawn based upon Brett’s numbers is that his performance seemed to be impaired by his injury last year. He missed about a month of playing time. After he returned, he hit no triples, no homers and (based only upon my subjective observation) seemed to strike out more than he did before the injury. (Sorry, I don’t know where to look up the actual numbers on this.) Small sample size, moving target, physical impairment negatively skewing numbers.

    For these reasons, I believe that Brett Gardner’s career and his value to the Yankees could wind up being almost anything. He could become a very fine starting center fielder or a bench player or he could wash out of the league within a couple of years.

    That said, I think that the team should make a point of keeping Brett as a role player this year, spelling starters on days off, pinch running, coming in for defense in late innings. He already has two assets in which he is the best player on the team, running and range in the outfield. It doesn’t make sense to develop a player for years and to dismiss him before you even know what you’ve got. This is what the Yanks did, to their detriment, for many years before Brian Cashman took over. Don’t make him a starter, don’t trade him. Get more data.

  171. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 1:09 pm

    “It’s not hypothetical at all. UZR error rate is around +/- 5 runs. So Granderson’s uzr could very well have been 6.6 rather than 1.6. Coversely, it could have been -3.4. That’s not hypothetical.”

    That’s why you don’t look at one season. I suggest that you follow your own advice.

  172. Rich in NJ December 20th, 2009 at 1:14 pm

    If someone knows how to avoid getting a post eated, please post it.

  173. OldYanksFan December 20th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    General Note: When looking at Offensive Production, (Fangraphs) wOBA is a better stat then OPS+ because:
    1) wOBA puts more weight on OBP the on SLG
    2) wOBA takes into account SBs and CS%

    Carl Crawford is a very nice player, Certainly above average. But comparing him to Holliday is a little disturbing.

    Career:: OPS+ OPS wOBA wRC SBs CS% URZ/150
    Holliday: 133 .933 .343 111 080 23% 14.4 (LF)
    Crawford: 103 .772 .400 139 362 18& 6.9 (LF)
    C.Grandy: 113 .828 .358 119 067 20% 4.9 (CF)

    To be fair, because of the Coors effect, Hollidays stats are somewhat inflated, but not radically. Remember these stats try to equalize via Park Factor.

    So Crawford, who is 1.5 years younger, is a significantly better defender and a much better basestealer (although Holliday’s 77% success rate is nice for a power hitter).

    However, Coors effect and all, Holiday’s OPS, wRC and wOBA numbers are way better. WAY better.

    And while Carl’s 103 OPS+ makes him slightly better then average offensively, he is below average for a corner OFer.

    Lastly, FanGraphs $$ Values may not be accurate in terms of ACTUAL $$ value to a team, but it is valid for comparison between players.

    Average Annual value (approx)
    Holliday: 20m/yr
    Crawford: 14m/yr
    C.Grandy: 17.8m/yr

    Also: Betsy is wrong about Holliday in the AL. When a pitcher and batter have never faced each other, the pitcher has the advantage. This is well accepted in the baseball community. Holliday was basically facing pitchers he had never seen. It is also why (the best) Japanese pitchers (generally) are effective in their first year or 2, then fall off a cliff once the league ‘gets to know them’.

    Betsy was correct in the Oakland is an extreme pitchers park. Holliday’s OPS in Oakland was around 50 HIGHER on the Road, while in St. Louis, his Road OPS was in the neighborhood of 150 pts LOWER. But he ended up with a .877 OPS at Oaklands stadium anyway. In the month of April, his OPS was .648, but for the month of July, before he was traded (on the 25th), his OPS was OVER 1.000!

    However, it is all really moot, as it was a SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, approx 1/2 a season.

    Crawford will make $10m in base salary in 2010.

    P.S. Do you think Crawford is better then Granderson?

  174. web December 20th, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    May be some bias here, but I’d rather keet Gardner. He’s gotten better at every level and I think his speed outweighs Melky’s arm. Neither hit for good enough power to be a corner OF, but I have waited so long to see the yanks get a player like Gardner. He has a lot of patience at the plate (sometimes too much patience) and I think he will develop into a great leadoff hitter.

  175. OldYanksFan December 20th, 2009 at 2:27 pm

    Bru: I don’t think anyone would argue that Holliday would make us a better, and awesome team. Here is the issue

    2012 Payroll
    Alex: $30m
    CC: $24.25m
    Jetes: $16m (?)
    Teix: $23m
    A.J.: $16.5m
    Cano: $14m
    Swish: $10.25m
    Grandy: $10m
    Holliday: $17m
    ——————————
    9 players: $160.5m !! $40m left for the other 16 players

    Injury, decline, poor production from any 1 (or OMG 2!) players of that group could kill us. In terms of payroll flexibility, this is known as ‘Concrete’.

  176. Steve December 20th, 2009 at 4:11 pm

    “the Yankees won last year despite having one of the weaker outfields in baseball.”

    this is insane and not at all supported by the facts.

  177. 86w183 December 20th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

    Who cares about the damn 2012 payroll?

    I’m so tired of the amateur bean counters here.

    The Yanks will pay what they pay when they pat it. This obsession with the $$$ is tiresome… especially when it includes make believe numbers.

    CC’s salary is wrongas is Tex’s, Cano and Swisher are optional, Holliday and Jeter are just made up.

    Go count your blessing instead.

  178. Options Trading Stock options trading December 20th, 2009 at 11:30 pm

    I’m Faced With An Ill Liquid Market? How Can I Keep The Market Maker Honest?

  179. Francis Isberto December 21st, 2009 at 1:05 am

    The Yankees should keep Melky and Gardner. They lost A-Jax already and some pitchers from the farm. They should stick to the plan of getting younger.

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