The LoHud Yankees Blog

The consensus remains that the Yankees want to cut payroll this winter, but Buster Olney tweeted last night that the number is between $190 million and $200 million, not quite as low as early estimates of $185 million.

Olney also notes — and this pretty much goes without saying — that the number is “not a hard ceiling.”

One thing about this period of rumors and speculation, very few things are set in stone. Marco Scutaro is going to Boston. Placido Polanco is going to Philadelphia. Billy Wagner is going to Atlanta. But most everything else remains up in the air, somewhere between educated guesswork and wild guesswork.

The market will have to develop before we know anything for certain. Let’s all hope that begins to happen at next week’s Winter Meetings.

If the Yankees actually do trim their payroll to $185 million, it will be a significant cut from this year’s spending, but it’s hard to call $185 million insufficient for a title defense. I generally don’t like comparing the Yankees’ payroll to that of other teams — it’s a good thing having owners who are willing to spend — but it’s worth noting that $185 million would still be significantly more than any other team spent this season. Almost $50 million more.

Basically, take baseball’s second-highest 2009 payroll and add Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and the mistake of Kei Igawa. That’s roughly $185 million. It’s enough to field a highly paid roster, plus two additional MVP candidates and still have enough to make up for a bad contract.

Cutting payroll to $185 million would to make it tough to replace or re-sign Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Andy Pettitte, but it’s certainly enough to build a championship team. Is there really any way the Yankees are going to hold themselves to a different standard?

Let’s not forget that today’s reports of cutting payroll also came with a report that the Yankees will look into a trade for Roy Halladay. That’s doesn’t sound like a team that’s thinking small next season.

ESPN  is reporting that the Yankees will look to cut payroll this offseason, possibly by more than $20 million to get the total down to around $185 million. Our friend Marc Carig is hearing the same thing about a diminished payroll.

Even with the cut, the Yankees still have some room to make a move, but a huge free agent splash might be out of the question. This is what last year was about. The Yankees made their major investments last winter and will spend this winter filling in the gaps.

Whatever the reports, it’s impossible to rule the Yankees out of anything, but it certainly seems that they’re going to try to cut costs.

The Yankees decision-makers are meeting in Tampa to talk about money, trade targets and free agent interests. Their key pieces are already in place — and this winter isn’t likely to be as momentus as last winter –  but there are significant holes that need to be filled. How would you rank the priorities? Here’s my list.

1. Starting pitcher
More important than left field or designated hitter, the Yankees need a starting pitcher to slot behind CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. It wouldn’t be a terrible thing to have Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes rounding out the rotation — with guys like Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin and Ian Kennedy adding depth — but going into spring training with Chamberlain and Hughes as the Nos. 3 and 4 would be too risky. Andy Pettitte. Roy Halladay. John Lackey. Whoever it is, they just need a quality starter.

2. Outfielder
However you look at it — starter in left field, starter in center field bumping Cabrera or Gardner to left, a primary designated hitter — the Yankees need someone who can play the outfield. Austin Jackson is almost ready, and could play his way into a big league role, but an outfielder is the second-most important target of the winter.

3. Designated hitter
Just a bat. Any bat. Any position. It would be better if it’s a guy who can play the field from time to time, but things worked pretty well with Hideki Matsui last year.

4. Reliever
I’m not convinced they need a reliever at all — especially not a high-dollar reliever — but there’s a solid chance the Yankees will be converting their top setup relievers back into starters. There are still a lot of in-house options, but a reliever wouldn’t be the worst addition.

5. Starting pitcher
We’re into areas where the Yankees don’t absolutely have to make a move. They only need one starting pitcher this winter, but an extra back-of-the-rotation arm wouldn’t be the worst thing, especially if it’s a guy who could play a role in the bullpen if he’s beaten out by Chamberlain and Hughes.

6. Utility infielder
With four young middle infielders on the roster, the Yankees don’t have to replace Jerry Hairston Jr. with another veteran. They could very easily stick with Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo or one of the other in-house candidates.

7. Catcher
Seems to me that Francisco Cervelli has earned the backup job in New York, but the Yankees might prefer a veteran and will almost certainly sign a veteran to start in Triple-A and provide additional depth.

8. Outfielder
An Eric Hinske type. Someone to provide additional depth. It becomes more important if they bring in a designated hitter who doesn’t play the outfield.

A few days ago, Mike Ashmore told us a bit about Eduardo Nunez. This morning, I thought we’d look at another infielder recently added to the 40-man.

Kevin Russo was a postseason all-star with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He hit .326 with a .397 on-base percentage and — having covered the league – I honestly believe he was the best lead-off hitter in the International League. It’s a league that’s often dominated by veterans, but at 25 years old, Russo was terrific in his Triple-A debut. When he missed time with a hamstring injury, the Triple-A Yankees were never able to replace him at the top of the lineup. He was especially good down the stretch — .477 on-base percentage in August, all five of his home runs in the final month of the regular season — and he finished third in the league in batting average and fourth in on-base percentage. If not for teammate Austin Jackson, Russo would have been my vote for the league’s Rookie of the Year.

Most of Russo’s time came at second base, with a few starts at third and a handful at shortstop. In the past he’s also played the outfield. Russo went through a stretch when he seemed to make more mistakes than usual in the field — half of his errors came after August 1 — but he’s generally a reliable defender with a surprisingly strong arm for a guy who’s spent most of his career at second base.

Although he missed significant time the past two years, I wouldn’t label Russo as an injury concern. His 2008 injury came when he was hit in the face by a batted ball during batting practice. Last year he tried to come back from a hamstring injury too quickly and wound up missing an additional month.

Russo’s bat should get him to the big leagues in one role or another. He has a good eye at the plate, makes consistent contact and has enough speed to steal a bag. Power is not a significant part of his game, but there’s a little bit of pop in his bat. The question seems to be whether he can play shortstop well enough to be a utility infielder. I haven’t seen him enough at the position to know whether he can handle it, but I thought he was good at second and I like his arm.

Bottom line is, Russo can hit. Nunez might have more power, but I think Russo’s bat is the most advanced of the 40-man middle infielders (other than Jeter and Cano, of course). That should be enough to give him a long look in spring training.

The Yankees have been having their organizational meetings in Tampa today and apparently George Steinbrenner was in the house during some of the conversations.

At this point in his life, The Boss isn’t the commanding presence that he once was but it’s nice to hear that he was at least in the room as the planning for No. 28 heats up. Of course, if Steinbrenner were his old self, you can only imagine what the directives to Brian Cashman would have been:

1. Trade for Halladay
2. Sign Holliday
3. Sign Lackey
4. Force a deal for King Felix
5. Start pushing to get Mauer

Oh, and the Boss would have wanted all of that done yesterday.

With a very respectful nod of the head to Siskel & Ebert (& Roeper), I thought this might be a good time to run through some of the baseball news, views and rumors with a thumbs up/thumbs down rating system (these are only my opinions, of course, unless you disagree, in which case they’re Chad’s):

• Thumbs down to Roy Halladay’s agent saying Halladay won’t approve a trade once spring training starts. Nice try, pal – you think Roy will say ‘no’ to the Yankees (or Red Sox or Phillies) if the Jays are 20 under again in July?

• Thumbs up to Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos saying he’s got no problem dealing within the division. At least someone is being honest.

• Thumbs up to those who think Curtis Granderson would be a good fit with the Yankees. Great player and an even better guy. (And yeah, I know about the splits. I’d still take the chance)

• Thumbs down to anyone who wants the Yankees to go after a “big-name” reliever like Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano. First, signing these guys would now cost draft picks since they were offered arbitration; and second, if the Yankees have learned anything over the past few years, it’s that big-money non-closers just aren’t worth it. I’d rather see more of Dave Robertson in 2010 than end up with another Kyle Farnsworth.

• Thumbs up to all of you who commented and emailed about the Tiger Woods post/saga/disaster. You guys (and girls) helped me come up with this column, which was about the loss of privacy for all of us in this day and age. So thanks.

• Thumbs down to a best-of-seven Division Series (at least until someone tells me how the World Series won’t end near Christmas).

• Thumbs up to an international draft – an idea that seems long overdue.

• Thumbs down to trading Phil Hughes for Halladay (though thumbs up to trading Joba Chamberlain or Austin Jackson for him).

• Thumbs up to reclamation project gambles (and, for what it’s worth, Justin Duchscherer > Rich Harden > Ben Sheets in my value book).

• Thumbs down to sticking with Chien-Ming Wang (sadly, for book sales).

• Thumbs up to mailbags – how has it been this long without one? Let’s get it going. Feel free to e-mail questions and we’ll try to do our first offseason one shortly.

According to NPBtracker’s twitter, the Mets have asked to see the results of a Hideki Matsui physical. That could be Omar Minaya  simply kicking the tires and turning over every rock, or it could be legitimate interest in putting Matsui in the outfield.

It a lot of ways, Matsui would make sense for the Mets. They certainly need a bat, especially in the outfield and especially one that hits for power. If Matsui can legitimately play left field, he could give that lineup a boost, and Matsui wouldn’t have to leave New York, which might be appealing to him and make him more likely to sign.

It makes no sense in one very obvious way. Matsui has played a total of 23 games in the outfield the past two seasons. Using a medical report to decide he can play there again would be a giant leap of faith.

That said, when MLB.com’s depth chart lists your starting left fielder as Angel Pagan, I guess any and every option is on the table.

• Baseball America has listed the top prospects from the Arizona Fall League. It’s subscription only and has few surprises and no Yankees. BA has also listed some players to watch in the Rule 5. Of their top 10, two are Yankees. Of their second 10, one is a Yankee. We’ll get much more into the Rule 5 candidates in the coming days.

• Speaking of Baseball America, editor John Manuel ranked the minor league systems of every organization for SI.com. He put the top five in order, the bottom five in order and split the middle 20 into a top half and lower half. The Yankees made the top half of the middle group (so did the Red Sox).

• Jerry Crasnick ranks Ben Sheets as one of the potential winter bargains. Given the Yankees depth of young, upper-level starters (Kennedy, Nova, Kontos, McAllister, Sanchez, etc.) I tend to think an injury risk like Sheets or Rich Harden makes sense for the Yankees if they can get him at a reasonable price, though that might not be possible.

The word of a scout is hardly gospel, but it’s certainly an educated opinion. That’s part of the reason I’ve enjoyed reading former scout Frankie Piliere at Fanhouse. In his past two chats — this Wednesday and last Wednesday — Piliere talked a lot about the Yankees, including this question and answer:

Q: What’s going on with the Yankees and Roy Halladay? Last I heard, the Red Sox are making a HUGE push for him right now. Any idea if NY is going to do the same thing? What is their limit (Montero/Hughes/and a lesser prospect?)

Piliere: The million dollar question indeed. Boston is going after him very aggressively right now. I just don’t know if the Yankees have the desperation factor in their corner. They still want to get younger and just not sure they want to go that extra mil and surrender one of their big prospects. If they can do it without Montero or Jackson then I think they’ll be in on it but that’s a big if.

You do have to wonder how much desperation could play a role in the Halladay sweepstakes. As Sam outlined this morning, a Halladay contract extension could put the Yankees into a payroll jam, but probably not enough of one to rule it out. There are only a handful of teams able to enter the Halladay race and it could be a matter of who’s willing to make an over-the-top offer.

Q: Can the Yankees make a major push for Halladay without including Jesus Montero?

Piliere: Can they? Yes. But if Toronto deals Halladay and doesn’t get Montero it doesn’t look too great. I think they have other prospects to pull it off though.

———

Other Yankees highlights from the past two Piliere chats:

• Asked to choose Ian Kennedy or Red Sox prospect Michael Bowden, Piliere went with Kennedy. “I think he’s more in the plans than Yankee fans like to believe,” Piliere said. “Just not sure why people so easily forget about this guy. I think he’ll be in the mix for the rotation in ST barring a spending spree on more pitching.”

• Asked to name breakout players for 2010, Piliere went with the Rangers’ Chris Davis and “Phil Hughes as a starting pitcher.”

• Asked if the Yankees will be willing to budge from a one- or two-year offer for Johnny Damon, Piliere said no. “I think they’ll be smart on this one,” he said. “I do not see them going beyond two years. I can see Damon walking for the bigger deal.”

There’s more Yankees stuff in there. Check it out.

I’ve had a bunch of e-mails about the Yankees payroll situation recently, so let’s talk about it for a moment. According to the fantastic database at Cot’s Contracts, the Yankees have approximately $170 million already committed to players for 2010. That doesn’t include arbitration deals for young players like Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner, and it also doesn’t include any deal that ultimately gets worked out for Andy Pettitte.

(FYI: Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Jose Molina, Pettitte, Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang come off the books this winter for about $45 million while Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano and Damaso Marte get raises for about $15 million.)

In 2009, the Yankees payroll was approximately $206 million. With the winter meetings approaching next week, Brian Cashman is in Tampa today (and tomorrow) to talk with the Steinbrenners and other team officials about what, exactly, the team is prepared to spend on players this coming year.

The goal, at least in the long-term, has been for the Yankees to reduce payroll. There has been talk for a while now about how Hal Steinbrenner would like to see the payroll under $200 million at some point in the near future, and the Yankees made their big splashes last offseason – CC, A.J., Tex – because they had $100 million coming off the books that winter as well as the knowledge that this year’s free agent crop was weak.

It was a smart move and, if not for Roy Halladay, the Yankees would be in a position to easily drop payroll this winter. There is no free agent on the market right now that is a “must-get” for the Yankees in the way that, say, John Lackey is almost a necessity for the Mets to sign if they are serious about becoming a contender again. The Yankees do not have that big a glaring need that they couldn’t look at more mid-level players for and/or fill from within. Unfortunately, Halladay is the X-factor.

There has been speculation about the possibility that Halladay might not require a contract extension from the team that acquires him, and it’s true he hasn’t made that as public as Johan Santana did two years ago. That said, Halladay isn’t an idiot, and it would be insanely stupid for a 32-year-old pitcher who throws a ton of innings not to get some security at this point in his career. Halladay will want an extension and he will get it – figure on something like five years, $23 million (otherwise known as CC money)?

There are only a few teams who can afford that and the Yankees are, of course, one of them. But if the Yankees were to do that, they’d do so knowing that their 2013 payroll would include $62.5 million going to three pitchers: Halladay ($23M), Sabathia ($23M) and A.J. Burnett ($16.5M). That’s a lot for a group where Sabathia would be the youngest at age 33 (the other two would be 36).

Add in (the assumed) Jeter deal, A-Rod’s never-ending contract and the money owed to Teixeira, and suddenly the long-term budget projections for 2013 are looking particularly bloated.

It isn’t my money and, as I’ve said before, I think the Yankees would be foolish not to seriously consider making a move for Halladay. But even following a year where the Yankees surely flourished financially, it’s hard not to wonder – and hard not to blame them for wondering – just how much is too much?