Plan B
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 04, 2010 
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The Mets deal for Jason Bay is complete. Press conference tomorrow morning at 11.
Let’s focus the debate here a little bit. Both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are going to spring training as starters. Both will surely work as starters until the Yankees are reasonably convinced they have a healthy five-man rotation. If that five-man rotation goes as planned — CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Javy Vazquez are all healthy — that leaves room for only one of Hughes and Chamberlain. We know all of this already.
Which Plan B do you prefer?
1. Send Hughes/Chamberlain to the bullpen
Pro: No doubt this makes the big league pen better. Both Hughes and Chamberlain have pitched well in a setup role, and the Yankees have no obvious eighth-inning reliever at the moment (though Dave Robertson seems to be knocking on the door).
Con: No matter how much work Hughes/Chamberlain does in spring training, moving to pen would leave him no longer stretched out to start if and when the Yankees need a sixth starter. Also, it’s difficult for a reliever to throw more than 100 innings in a season, which means Hughes/Chamberlain would not be stretched out to start without an innings limit next season.
2. Send Hughes/Chamberlain to Triple-A
Pro: When has a team ever gone through an entire season needing only five starters? Chances are, at some point, the demoted right-hander would move into the big league rotation, probably for more than one or two starts. Even if he stays in Triple-A, at least he would build up innings for next year.
Con: The big league bullpen would be weakened, and really, what is there for Hughes or Chamberlain to learn in Triple-A? Maybe Hughes could throw his changeup in a low-stress environment, and Chamberlain could work a little bit on both his changeup and curveball, but at this point they have too much big league time to expect them to get much out of the minors. Plus, it’s kind of a kick in the gut for either pitcher.
SJ, I agree about Joba and Phil, but don’t you think that, at least with Phil, that he’s way behind the curve? Let’s assume he stays in the pen this year, with the idea (finally!) that he goes into the rotation in 2011. He’s going to have worse innings limits than this year, his secondary pitches will have gotten almost no use against major league hitters for 2 years (yes, I know he can work on them in side sessions) and he will have to get used to going through lineups more than once. Given that, what could we possibly expect from him next year? He’s not a baby anymore – he will be pitching at 25 (or is it 26?) for most of next year and he will have not progressed one bit. The odds of him reaching his potential will have severely decreased as he would have wasted a good bit of his prime.
Keep them both as starters. If Joba’s velocity/command don’t improve let him loose in the pen.
Options? Hughes has only one? And Joba seriously has 4? Hughes on th ML roster for all of 2010 preserves the option? Then I’d seriously think about Joba in AAA.`
Until and unless they decide that either Joba or Hughes’s future isn’t as a starter, they both need to be stretched out even if it means starting the season at SWB.
The early part of the season is a time for experimentation anyway, so I have no problem entrusting the bridge to Mariano to D-Rob, Marte, and Melancon (but no one else).
The Yankees would be well-served to announce their intentions heading into Spring Training. There’s no shame in being the 8th inning guy and eventual heir to the greatest closer of all time. We all know that Joba’s mind can get the best of him, so why not put it at ease by defining his role now?
I’d prefer to see one of them remain in triple A for a few months, and if by some chance we haven’t needed to use them as a starter, then send them to the bullpen.
I think the starter depth is more important than an additional bullpen piece.
(great blog btw)
Hughes is only going to be 24 at the end of next season.
“There’s no shame in being the 8th inning guy and eventual heir to the greatest closer of all time.”
It’s not about shame, it’s about the best use of their assets.
Perhaps the Bloggin’ Boys could help eliminate some of the confusion and come up with a list of the 40 man roster and the next 10-13 organizational players in line with exactly how many options each have. Obviously, the veterans are out of those said options, but, players such as Hughes and Chamberlain could be included.
Hope everyone had a happy new year.
I say if its Joba at 94 as a starter nibbling. Send him to the pen where he can let loose at 98. If Hughes decides to pitch scared as a starter. Then there is always the option to go back to what worked last year. Joba needs his MOJO back. 98 mph heaters to set up the swinging at junk in the dirt.
Can anyone with ESPN insider access tell me what this says about Pujols to the Yankees next year?
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb.....s%2frumors
Hughes as the #5, Joba starting in AAA until he’s needed in the majors.
Maximizes the odds of each pitcher hitting their target workloads.
Side benefit: if Joba ends up spending 2 months in the minors, you’ve delayed his free agency by a year.
Joba looks like a terrific relief pitcher, and also looks like a mediocre starter. Hughes is going to be a better starter. No need for anyone of these guys to go down to AAA unless they can’t find the plate in Spring training.
I just don’t see either of them going to the bullpen at all at this point. Why would they? They’re major league ready. If there isn’t room for them in the rotation then send them to the bullpen.
People are banking on Robertson as much as they were banking on Bruney a year ago. Look how that turned out. Robertson arm was hurting by August. Im much more confident in our bullpen with one of the dynamic duo’s taking over the eigth inning. With the other innings by commitee.
Attached is the Yankees April schedule.nless there are any cancellations, there might not be a need for a 5th starter until the 3rd week.
IMO, best man in spring training goes in the starting rotation.
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com.....038;y=2010
I seem to be in the minority, but I really don’t see either one of them going back to AAA. JMO.
I prefer that it is decided with a spring competition and fully expect one of the top six to get hurt and allow everyone to go.
What’s plan B when Chamberlain, Hughes and Aceves don’t cut it? None of them have proven they can be a big league starter. Is wishful thinking considered planning these days? The last time it was assumed Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy would be in the starting rotation, we ended up with Ponson, Rasner and Karstens. This isn’t Kansas City, Pittsburgh or Washington where you can throw away starts on unproven pitchers because you’re not in a pennant race. Every blown start counts just as much in April and May as it does in September.
one answer to your question about when did a team ever not need a #6 is that it is very rare, but does happen. the 08 tampa bay rays barely used a 6th starter the whole season, thier #’s 1-5 stayed healthy and effective the whole year. but this is certainly the exception and add in the ages of the yankees staff and the length of the 09 season for them and you can be assured that there will be a place for both phil and joba in the rotation sometime this season.
Roy Halladay had more big league innings when he re-worked himself in the minors.
Joba isn’t right. His velocity has been on a decline since his injury in 08.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitch.....position=P
Joba has 93-95 now which is great for most pitchers but he’s shown that he can be 97-100.
#2 is by far the best option. This has nothing to do with what each of these kids has to learn at AAA – clearly, the answer is nothing. The Yankees have wanted to develop a homegrown core for a long time, starting obviously with pitching. We have two young kids (but they aren’t babies anymore) who have immense potential. If they aren’t going to develop them with an eye towards them becoming excellent starters, then honestly I will start to have serious questions as to their competency in this area. Frankly, it’s Phil that’s gotten the bad breaks. Joba was given a spot last year and allowed to struggle where as Phil has lost several opportunities to develop as a starter due to injuries and circumstances beyond his control. IMO, there’s no way that Phil beats Joba for the #5 spot because he’s just well-behind development wise so whatever questions we are debating now really are about Phil. I hate the idea of a competition in ST – Phil should be using that time to develop his pitches. What’s he going to do instead? He’s going to work on his FB and cutter to the exclusion of all else because it’s the only way he can “win” this competition. I think this will only set him back further.
Betsy, I agree with you about Phil. If they don’t have him starting now, then the chance of that happening really goes down, and you would have potentially wasted a fine career for the kid.
If the 4 vets are healthy to start the season, and it’s a dead heat between Phil and Joba, I – FWIW – would opt to send Joba to the pen, and look to give him multiple innings per outing there.
Will that suffice to keep Joba stretched out? I don’t know, but I do know that Joba has no one to blame for this other than himself. If he had performed better last season, then he would be firmly in the rotation, and Javy Vazquez would not have been necessary. That extra money could theoretically been spent on bringing back Damon (Erica’s PBF).
Of course, this could all be moot. One bad injury, and things could work themselves out all by themselves. As they say, stuff happens sometimes.
I bet a buddy a bottle of Redbreast that Hughes will be slated to be a starter coming out of spring training
Where would Pujols play?
ko, your question is skewed. plan a is probably joba, plan b is probably phil, plans c, d and e are probably aceves, gaudin and mitre. you never have enough pitching but to suggest that there is no plan b or c is ridiculous.
Hughes is better than Joba out of the pen, Hughes will work enough out of ST to get his arm stretched out and I have no doubt Joe G will getthe innings in for spot start/fill in for injuries/long relief when needed. I with the emergence of D-Rob and Melancon, you could see P.Hugh play a Ramiro Mendoza role this year… and be very effective
And no – The Yanks aren’t well served by announcing the plans to the press ahead of time.
The fans, bloggers and foes get an advantage but it actually hurts the team.
carl, i assume you’ve actually seen pujols play? the question isnt where would pujols play the question is where would everybody else play…
Oh wow!
Now we take our top young starters and decide who is wasted in the pen by who is better in relief?????
Anytime a bog FA is out there, the Yankees are mentioned. There is no place for Pujols no matter how amazing it would be to have him, tex and arod.
Erin,
I don’t think you’re in the minority. Betsy, CB, myself, among others think they should send one to the minors to stay stretched out as a starter. But it’s probable they send neither down. They both can help the big league club and people would probably say why wouldn’t you want your 7 best pitchers (incl. Mo of course) on the club. But if they need someone to step in for more than a spot start Joba or Hughes out of the bullpen’s not going to be much help. And it does stall their developments as starters imo.
Send Joba back to the Majors and make him a starter again. He’ll be ready to throw down in 2011.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanta.....-joba-done
Here’s my Pujols Plan.
Keep Tex at 1st
Move Alex to RF
Pujols at 3rd.
Never ever going to happen though.
that whole post i wrote didnt make sense at all… haha
if phil beats out joba, i want joba sent down. he needs to learn how to pitch a full game with all of his “stuff” before we run him out there again.
look, i know the yankees arent likely to go after pujols, but to suggest that there ‘isnt a place for him’ is a joke right?
anywhere in this galaxy that beings are thowing an object for another being to hit, there is a place for albert pujols
Tex A-Rod Pujols Montero would be stupid though lol
The short term answer is Joba in the rotation and Phil in the bullpen. Both have shown ability in each role, but Joba has been built up as a starter better.
The real key to the decision is Mariano. How much longer will he go and do the Yanks view Phil or Joba as the heir apparent. If the answer is two years and yes, then put that guy in the pen, otherwise I say go with the long term and develop one of them as a starter in Scranton.
I’m inclined to let them all compete for the 5th spot in ST. Whomever wins: Huges, Joba, Gaudin, Mitre, Aceves, should be the 5th starter.
If it’s someone other than Hughes or Joba, then so be it for the time being. Then send Hughes to the pen, and Joba to AAA to refine his mental and physical approach to pitching. They Yankees owe nobody anything. It’s performance that counts.
Should such time occur that the #5 starter faltes, then he can be replaced by Joba from AAA, as long as he’s proven the most capable for the role. Hughes can be middle relief or setup, ala Gossage, pitching 2 or more innings at a time.
Both have value as starters, but both have to prove it if they are to remain on THIS team. There is other talent behind them, and not a lot of room for them.
To answer some questions about options…
Chamberlain should have all three options remaining because he’s never been sent to the minors while on the 40-man roster.
Hughes should also have options left. He has been sent to the minors while on the 40-man in three different seasons, but I don’t think he burned an option each time. In 2007 he opened in Triple-A before he was on the 40-man, then he went to New York and was injured. As I remember it — and the media guide seems to back this up — his other minor league appearances that season were on a rehab assignment. Rehabs don’t burn options.
In 2009, Hughes opened in Triple-A. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre season started on April 9 and Hughes was called to New York 19 days later on April 28. Players only burn an option if they’re in the minors leagues for a certain amount of time, and I beleive that limit is 20 days. Any player optioned to the minors for less than that doesn’t actually burn an option. He has to have an option remaining to be sent down, but he doesn’t burn it if the assignment lasts fewer than 20 days.
tex’s friend-
pujols got moved to first base because he can’t throw a baseball. his arm is destroyed. larussa(?) used to have a guy go out to left field and get the ball from him, so he wouldn’t throw it.
how is he going to play third base?
Assuming Mauer gets to free agency as well and the Yanks don’t hit the $300 mil payroll mark, who is the best get?
Pujols?
Mauer?
Cliff Lee?
Other? (Beckett, etc)
I Joba wants to make a case for being the 5th man in the starting rotation, he’ll arrive in Tampa around the 20th of the month.
Phil Hughes will be there already.
I would not send either guy to AAA. They are both valuable parts for the 2010 Yanks.
I believe one becomes 5th starter…the other goes to the pen, where a creative plan can get them innings, e.g. rather than designating “the 8th inning”, they do some 2-3 inning stints, maybe some long relief, maybe a spot start.
Each time through the rotation the yankees starting staff should provide between 31-33 innings should they stay healthy.
The starting rotation looks to provide a huge number of innings.
As such, each 5 games the bull pen will have only 12-14 innings to throw. That’s it.
And given the capabilities of the offense they will play in a number of blowouts. So non-trivial proportion of those 12-14 innings will be low leverage situations due to the yankees offense.
In addition, we can conservatively estimate that the yankees will lose at least 1/3 of their games (if they lost 1/3 of their games they’d will around 110 games. I don’t see them doing better than that)
Of those 12-14 innings around 9-10 will be when they are winning. Mo will throw 2-3. Robertson will throw 2-3. That leaves 6-8 innings per for 5 guys in the pen to throw every turn through the rotation in total – including losses.
There just aren’t that many innings for the pen to throw unless… their are injuries to the rotation.
The main risk to the yankees not making the playoffs is due to significant injuries, particularly to the rotation.
As such, the yankees probability of winning the world series in 2010 will be maximized if either Joba or Hughes stays stretched out in AAA to mitigate the risk of injuries to the staff.
The yankees have the best team in baseball on paper. Outside of some tweaks they really need to prepare for injuries rather than trying to get additional marginal benefit from a few innings out of the pen at the major league level.
See! Chad doesn’t even know how many options Phil has. Sounds like 2 at the least.
Chad,
When are you guys heading down to Tampa?
With the schedule I posted earlier for April, unless a game is cancelled and replayed the next day, there won’t be a need for a 5th starter until late in April, so in all likelihood, the loser for the starting spot will start off in the minors as a starter.
How do the 2010 Phillies stack up against the 2010 Yankees?
“They aren’t trading Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain if one winds up in the bullpen. They are looking to amass as much quality pitching as possible. Phil and Joba are quality arms. Their roles will sort themselves out over time.
You don’t trade pitching assets because they aren’t throwing 200 innings by their 24th birthday.”
I went to lunch and missed this.
First, I’m getting worried that one of Phil or Joba won’t pitch 200 innings by their 26th birthday. That’s the issue with sending one to the pen now.
Second, I can usually see multiple points of view but there is no way the Yanks send Phil or Joba to AAA. They didn’t last year – there is less reason to do it this year and they won’t.
Third, with CC, Vazquez, AJ and Andy in the rotation, and with capable fill-ins like Gaudin and Aceves in the wings, there is no reason to put Phil or Joba in AAA for “insurance” or to “keep them ready”. The chances of really needing both of them as starters this year do not justify the lost opportunity cost of using the second one as the set-up man, or if possible trading the non-starter of the pair.
Most likely, IMO, the non-starter is the set-up man. Second most likely, the non-starter is traded. Least likely, by far, is the AAA option.
I think Joba would be a great heir apparent to Mo. He seems so energized when he comes out of the bullpen. I think his adrenalin burns him out as a starter. As mentioned before, there is nothing wrong with being the setup guy to the best closer of all time!
I also think Jon Albaladejo has potential, Ramirez’s book is closed, Mitre would be a nice long relief option. If a starter goes down, Gaudin can do an admirable job.
2011: Cliff Lee (18-20 M/Year), Crawford (13/year?)
Yanks love that 4/52 contract for LF.
WYH,
Your arguments are fair. But I don’t know that they’d trade Joba or Phil for a corner OF when they wouldn’t do it for Roy Halladay. I know they don’t want to pay twice, but we’re talking Roy Freaking Halladay. By one account, they were willing to trade Montero, but not include either of Joba or Hughes. At the end of the day, Joba and Hughes are part of their plans. What those plans are is unknown, but hopefully we’ll find out sooner rather than later!
I don’t know but if mangmt continues to jerk these two kids around like they have, mostly joba neither one is going to have smoothe sailing. You have to assign these kids roles to work for. Because of how they’ve (Joba) been handled you basically have to let the kid have an opp.
If he doesn’t we will never know what he is worse neither will he.
I don’t want Hughes Rules this year. Send him down and begin getting his innings. His injuries have set him back. If Joba flounders bring Hughes back and stick him in the five hole.
You cna’t pitch if you don’t pitch. This has been something, one would believe the yankees would nurse these kids better than they have. Sure they have helped the pen a great deal but what and who are they?
Wave,
You have much more confidence in the starting rotation’s probability of staying healthy than I do.
wave, phil started 3 games for scranton last year and was brought up when they needed another starter, so not only are you wrong that they didn’t send either to aaa, you are wrong that they wouldnt start the season with one of them in the minors for the inevitable need down the line.
m-
I don’t know if they could get a young, good, cheap OF with a trade centered around a Hughes or a Chamberlain, but the analysis of that trade would be totally different from a Halladay trade.
Ham Fighters-
I was a little sloppy in the post – I was referring to the later point in the year when Wang was activated and something had to be done with Hughes, not the beginning of the season. I should have been clearer, but my point remains correct.
i dont see how joba is better suited to start than phil. hughes pitched great as a starter last year and then took his success to the bullpen. joba on the otherhand, pitched lights out from the pen then moved to the rotation and his velocity was down, control was an issue, and he barely got past 5 innings. I would prefer Mitre or Gaudin in the rotation giving 5-6 mediocer innings than joba when we know joba can be our 8th inning guy.
I don’t think this has been posted yet, my apologiesif it has, but why not have a 6 man rotation? Here me out:
Keeps the innings down and stress off the big guys, thereby keeping them fresh for the playoffs. (We did this in September and it was needed as we went to a 3 man rotation).
Keeps Joba and Phil in the rotation and keeps their innings where it should be, while not overworking them.
The only downside is the hurt to the bullpen, and the not getting into the groove that some top starters demand.
I am sure I will get bashed, but it seems logical, with the least amount of cons.
Also, if one starter goes down, then you have the normal 5 man rotation and Phil/Joba are already in action and don’t need ramp up time like if they were in the pen.
You’d be shocked at how often a player doesn’t know he has an option left until he’s suddenly sent to the minor leagues. It happens all the time. The player is positive he’s out of options, then finds out there was some rule that meant he never burned one of them.
As for going to Tampa, I believe I’m leaving on the 15th.
*Hear me out….man, tired today!
Chad Jennings
January 4th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
To answer some questions about options…
————————————————————
Thanks for some clarification on options. I’m sure that there is a site somewhere that has that info, but, I haven’t seen one. The MLB site has the rules, but, like the CBA and the Warren Report, it’s clear as mud.
WYH,
I’m just arguing that Halladay would’ve been better acquisition than any LF. Yet, they held the kids back. Now you’re saying rather than send one of the kids to the bullpen, they should trade him for a corner OF? Sending either of the two young starters away now doesn’t help us when Andy inevitably retires.
Basically, my position is that if they wouldn’t do it for Halladay, they’re not doing it for a corner OF at this point. Later? Maybe, but not now. However, I thought there was at least a chance that Cash would trade Joba before his stock had a chance to fall any more.
Somethgin to consider when thinking of innings limits for starters being considered for temporary bullpen duty while on the way to the starting rotation …
These bullpen innings shouldn’t exactly be translated inning-for-inning against their ideal innings limit. Considering the different warm-ups and work vs rest patterns, bullpen work is probably more taxing (per inning) on their arms than may be recognized.
Like Chad suggests, how often do you see over 100 innings from a reliever? Just a guess, but I’d think it’s probably less often than you see a starter put in 200 innings. Sure, maybe they’re not ‘stretched out’ but maybe 100 is just a lot of relief innings for anyone. Even for Scott Proctor.
It appears the Sox are closing in on Beltre…….
CB-
Sure, it is possible that one of CC, Vazquez, AJ or Andy will have to go on the DL for an extended period. I would not deny that.
But, CC and Vazquez are extremely unlikely candidates. They pitch 200+ innings year in and year out. AJ, while a little dicier, appears to have put his injury woes behind him, and Andy is very reliable.
So the question is, are the Yanks better off buying insurance for an unlikely event in the form of sending Phil or Joba down to AAA (and you can’t even be positive that form of insurance will be effective), or are they better off getting value for money by using one of them in the pen or trading one? I think the answer is clear, and it doesn’t involve AAA.
Interesting analysis CB. So basically, if I understand your conclusion correctly, you’d just utilize Joba and Hughes to build depth to mitigate loss due to injury.
While I understand and somewhat agree with the premise, in order for that to happen, there will need to be more confidence in the bullpen to assure that those late innings are secure. I don’t think we’re there yet.
These two pitchers are both past the point their career where AAA is a logical option. There is nothing for them to gain there. I think the loser goes into the bullpen and (when/if needed) they can be transitioned back into a starter with the help of Gaudin and Aceves. The first time they start after having been in the pen, they go 3 innings, and have aceves/gaudin be the long reliever. The IP per start can then increase each start, as is done in spring ball.
m-
Halladay is very expensive. A young, cheap good OF would not be. So the analysis is entirely different. Plus, we need an OF, we don’t need Halladay when a Vazquez was on the block.
So with all due respect to the fact that I’m in the minority, I’m sticking with my point of view.
6 man rotation may work for pettitte, hughes and joba…
but not for cc, aj and javy necessarily. pettitte is at a point where the extra day may help him too.
Thanks, Chad. Baseball players aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed. haha.
Bet you’re looking forward to some warmer weather.
Guess I didn’t understand your conclusion CB.
Did you see this article on “the Best Player in Baseball” over certain periods of time…the Ken Singleton love surprised me!
============================================
1974-78: Joe Morgan
Close: Mike Schmidt, Carew.
In the discussion: Rose, Ken Singleton.
Comment: Well, we are, about to hit one of our first big surprises — just how good a player Ken Singleton really was. Shocked the heck out of me. I suspected he was wildly underrated. I know he walked a ton and hit for power. But, I never thought he was in the discussion for best player in baseball. And yet …
1975-79: Ken Singleton
Very Close: Schmidt, Dave Parker.
In the discussion: Morgan, George Brett, Rose.
Comment: There he is — Ken Singleton, best player in baseball. Wow. Now, to be fair, he’s only one WIn Share ahead of Schmidt and three ahead of Parker — so really it’s about a three way tie.
Still, he is ahead. He is our official best player in baseball. This is why I really believe it’s important, as baseball fans, to look back at players with a fresh eye and new approaches. Because Ken Singleton was wildly under-appreciated. He punched up a 152 OPS+ from 1975-79 — second only to George Foster. But he got about 200 more plate appearances than Foster, and his on-base percentage was about 50 points higher.
If you had told people in 1979 that Ken Singleton was better — markedly better in many cases — than Parker or Jim Rice or Dave Winfield or Steve Garvey, they would have called you nuts. Many of them still would call you nuts. But that doesn’t make it any less true. Ken Singleton played in a low-scoring era and in a bad hitters ballpark. And he did the things that win games — he got on base, which leads to scoring runs, which leads to winning games. It was that way 1912, and in 1958 and in 1979 and today.
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlo.....-baseball/
Keep them both in the minors (maybe even Tampa) to keep them regular. Use Gaudin or Mitre in April and the first part of May so we can see what they have. This way Joba/Phil will have enough innings left to keep them pitching if they get hot.
I would just burn Hughes final option this year and keep him in AAA so that he can build his innings limit.
Are we REALLY going to option Hughes to the minors next season? He’ll either be in the rotation or the bullpen that year.
There are very few rotations in baseball that have the potential of having 4 starters log 200+ innings. NYYs are one of those teams.
Jerkface,
Chad explained that Phil should have more than option. What happens if Phil outpitches Joba in ST? Then it gets dicey.
rishi, good find. Thanks.
Andy is not going to be here next year even if he wants to be – that’s it. The only way he’s here is if Joba stinks it up as a starter and the Yankees feel that he needs to go to the pen. I think Phil is in the rotation basically no matter what in 2011, so it’s CC, AJ, Javy (or Lee, or whomever), Joba and Phil……..OR replace Joba with Andy if Joba goes to the pen. It’s not up to Andy to decide whether he’s back next year, it’s up to the Yankees.
There was only 1 team this past decade to make it through an entire season with only 5 starters. The 2003 Mariners had Franklin, Garcia, Meche, Moyer, and Pineiro each make either 32 or 33 starts apiece.
There were 8 teams that only used 6 starters (’05 chisox, and ’01 & ’04 A’s among them).
The team that used the most starters this past decade? the ’06 Royals, ’04 Rangers, and ’03 Reds each used 17 starters. The Yanks used only 9 this past year.
There’s a good post up at RAB that relates (somewhat) to this discussion.
Wave Your Hat
January 4th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
rishi, good find. Thanks.
=====================
Another surprise – Alex is close a lot, but never officially “the best”
The Yankees are not trading Phil or Joba for a LF and they shouldn’t (sorry, Wave, I completely disagree). If the Yankees don’t intend to ever really give Phil another crack as a starter, then yes – trade him. I think keeping him in the pen is a complete waste of material.
I kind of agree with the general sentiment that Joba and Hughes are the front runners (baring a late signing of a free agent or surprise trade) for the 5th spot in the rotation. I am curious, though, why Gaudin is not getting any more discussion. Last year he bounced around a lot from rotation to bullpen. I wonder what he might be able to produce if HIS role was defined. Definitely not a 200 inning horse, but he might be good for 5-6 innings a start. That’s not bad, if the top 4 do what they are capable of doing. The Yankees did manage to win a lot (all?) of his starts last year.
a look back at the last 5 seasons of the yankees rotation will tell you that they need phil and joba ready to start.
remember sidney ponson, aaron small, shawn chacon, sergio and chad, sidney ponson (again), al leiter and others too numerous to mention?
Option 2, please. And I really think it should be Joba in AAA. He could use the lower stress environment to really work on rebuilding his arm strength and polishing up a couple more pitches. Whether Hughes fails early or pitches brilliantly, Joba will be ready to take over as much of the remainder of the season as necessary, and can start in the postseason, if he’s good enough. And Hughes can once again be a weapon out of the pen.
It also works better with the “options” issue.
As for it’s impact on the pen, it’s not necessary to have a dominant pen, out of the gate. There are enough pieces to move around to get the pen straightened out, before Phil rejoins it, mid-season.
And I don’t think it’s really a kick in the gut. It’s telling Joba, “We really want you to be a starter, and we’re willing to weaken our pen to give you a little extra time to really be ready to succeed.”
Starting Hughes in AAA doesn’t really help, because he’ll be eating into his innings limit, and wouldn’t be able to fill out the season in the rotation, if Joba has to be moved to the pen.
I would slot Hughes into the #5 slot and based on the schedule and off days I would limit him early on by skipping his starts early in the season. Assuming the other guys are healthy they would be working on 5 days each start. After the AS break I would run all 5 guys out there in their turn and that would again save the big guns down the stretch b/c they would be pitching on 5/6 days rest. Hughes would get @ 27/28 starts and his innings would be @ 165/170. Joba can go to pen and be used like Mariano was in ’96. Mo had 107 innings out of the pen that year.
Again, Phil in AAA is not about insurance, it’s about letting him get back to being a starter. He’ll be in the rotation next year and for a long time after that.
“It appears the Sox are closing in on Beltre…….”
Source?
MikeSilvermanBB Source: #RedSox not a front-runner and not currently in mix at all for free agent 3B Adrian Beltre
If Joba looks bad, and he has options, send him to AAA then. All Hughes has to do is push 170 IP this year. Then next year he’ll be free of innings limits. I think he ends up between 160-170 if healthy.
The bottom line, is that if I were Yankees management, I want Hughes preparing to start.
“If the Yankees don’t intend to ever really give Phil another crack as a starter, then yes – trade him. I think keeping him in the pen is a complete waste of material.”
And if one of them doesn’t throw 200+ innings before 2012, it’s a waste too. And one of them won’t.
Another thought:
What does Joba have to gain by going to Scranton? – Nothing
He got his innings up to around 165 after the playoffs last year… he should have no problem if healthy to get closer to 200 this year. Let the kid develop, He was very good until he hit his previous inning high. I expect the same this year.
Phil will be fine… he’ll get starts, he get innings and hell get the opportunity to develop an grow this year as well
I would have loved to have seen he following bullpen for 2010:
Rivera
Joba
Robertson
Melancon
Mike Gonzalez (L)
George Sherril (L)
Aceves
I’m not sure which Damaso Marte will show up, so I would have tried picked up Mike Gonzalez this offseason and traded Marte before ST. I would also trade have traded either Mitre or Gaudin. Gaudin has more value because he is an effective starter for his payroll requirements. Mitre is still a work in progress and hasn’t yet shown he has fully regained his strength from TJ surgery.
We’ll have to agree to disagree, Wave. I expect Phil to be in the rotation next year and I expect him to be a permanent fixture.
Betsy-
There’s only room for one starter this year between Joba and Phil. As for Phil, ST is plenty of time for him to be ready to start if he is to be the starter. It’s been done innumerable times in the history of baseball. He doesn’t need AAA for that.
Pat, thanks. Someone posted the Beltre thing on NYYFans and claimed it came from MLB trade rumors. I assumed it was accurate…….
Wave, I’m not sure what you’re referring to. He’s not going to be in the rotation this year so IMO he must go to AAA and prepare for next year or to come up and be a spot starter. The Yankees need to have a little foresight here….
While I’m tempted to look ahead to 2011 also, it’s premature to think that Andy will just retire, particularly if he has a comparable year to last year. On the other hand, Vazquez will be a FA also, joining Andy (L), Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, and Cliff Lee (L) on the open market, should they make it to the open market.
Chances are, another lefty will be the preferred option, and Cliff Lee looks like the most likely target. Cashman would probably prefer Lee to Andy, so that leaves another slot open for ______________(insert the other of Hughes/Joba here) the final rotation slot.
DaSaint007
January 4th, 2010 at 2:13 pm
I would have loved to have seen he following bullpen for 2010:
Rivera
Joba
Robertson
Melancon
Mike Gonzalez (L)
George Sherril (L)
Aceves
I’m not sure which Damaso Marte will show up, so I would have tried picked up Mike Gonzalez this offseason and traded Marte before ST. I would also trade have traded either Mitre or Gaudin. Gaudin has more value because he is an effective starter for his payroll requirements. Mitre is still a work in progress and hasn’t yet shown he has fully regained his strength from TJ surgery.
————————————————————
Would you trade Gaudin to the Dodgers for Sherrill, Simon?
Not sure how anyone can logically conclude either Hughes or Chamberlain will best help the Yankees qualify for the play-offs by pitching in games that don’t count (i.e. AAA).
Yes, I see the internal logic, but I think its flawed.
For one, I’d say it’s safe to assume Brian Cashman is intentionally setting up a motivating off-season/ST competition for the 5th spot and he’ll let that play out until the conclusion of ST.
Less safe to assume but my guess is its Chamberlain’s spot to lose, because he’s most prepared to start deep into the year.
I recognize this creates a “innings” issue for Hughes, but I’m not convinced this compromises his “development”. I think time spent getting major league hitters out (even once through the order at a time) is MUCH more valuable than dominating AAA hitters for long stretches.
Hughes had the lowest WHIP of any major league reliever last year of anyone that qualified. If early in the year he shows signs of being able to get even close to that sort of success, I’d hope the Yankees give strong consideration to him playing the Mariano circa ’96 role, in which he threw 107 innings, btw.
Betsy, The Sox aren’t getting Beltre. They will not expand their payroll and pay luxury tax for this guy, they would have done it if they were able to trade Lowell but that didn’t work out well as we all know.
Joba in the rotation. They’ve finally built him up enough after enough shenanigans to not have any innings cap, it’d be stupid to put him back in the pen after all that. Let’s see what he can do without the leash on.
The Yankees would have behoved themselves to take the Tigers’ approach with Porcello but whatev.
The loser should go to AAA. Let him pitch half a season down there and then bring him up mid season to bolster the pen.
Obviously, if a starter goes down in the 1st half, you would bring him up to start in the majors.
I just dont see anyway that Joba doesnt start the yr in the rotation. They stretched him out over the past 2 yrs so he could pitch this yr with no limitations. They’ll let him go to see what he has.
But that shouldnt affect their long term plan for Hughes. I’m sure they still look at him as a starter. if so, he needs to pitch around 150 innings this yr and the only way he does that is if he starts for at least half the yr. Barring injury, AAA is the only way that happens.
have the other one start in AAA
I’d put whichever one is not our 5th starter in the bullpen, but keep them as a long reliever/multi-inning setup man and give them consistent work out of the bullpen even if it means not always using them in high leverage situations. This way you keep that player stretched out where they could be ready to start when needed.
Making either an 8th inning guy would be stupid because it takes them out of the rotation picture for a while. It also would be foolish to waste their talent in AAA.
So if our starters go 6 innings bring in Joba or Hughes to pitch 2-3 innings. If our starter goes 5 or less give them 3+ innings.
Then on days where they are unavailable you can use Robertson, Marte, and the rest to setup for Mo.
If Joba or Hughes is pitching an average of about 2-3 innings out of the pen whenever needed they could enter the rotation and give us probably 4 innings or so. Then the next time out they’d be good for around 5-6.
Chad, Thanks for focus. I really don’t think there is a correct answer here. It’s a nice problem to have. I’d say the best thing for the Yankees (long term) and the kids involved is to treat them like starters. The winner is in the starting rotation and the loser is in AAA ready for a call up that is bound to happen.
What I can’t judge is will that mess with the loser more than making them a bullpen arm and stretching them out later?
The other variable is, who do they think of as Mo’s replacement. If that person is not in the system, then you would have to consider putting the loser in the pen… (how is that for flip flopping?)
“1975-79: Ken Singleton
Very Close: Schmidt, Dave Parker.
In the discussion: Morgan, George Brett, Rose.”
Nice to see Singleton recognized in this manner. Saw him a lot as a kid in Baltimore. Not much of an outfielder at all, but just a terrific hitter, especially left-handed.
Have to go with #2 if those are my options.
Plan C
First half of the season Joba pitches in the rotation, Hughes in the pen. Second half, switch them.
100 innings each as starters, 35 as relievers. 135 total. Enough to tell you if both have promise as starters.
2010 is NOT going to be about 2011.
You play one season at a time on the major league level.
Hughes and Chamberlain have proved they are major leaguers and that’s what they’ll be.
The 2009 Yankees dug themselves a hole in April/early May, with a good portion of the reason being an uncertain/under-performing bullpen. Why would anyone think the Yankees are going to break camp with one of their best 12 pitchers in the minor leagues.
Doesn’t make a LICK of sense, theoretically or practically.
Plan C
First half of the season Joba pitches in the rotation, Hughes in the pen. Second half, switch them.
100 innings each as starters, 35 as relievers. 135 total. Enough to tell you if both have promise as starters.
–
While not giving Hughes the innings he needs, and limiting Joba where we just managed to get him unlimited. The worst idea.
Positive report today from Dr. Andrews on former #Yankees RHP Wang. Could throw off mound in 6 to 8 weeks. Agents expect heightened interest …
1 minute ago from txt
2010 is NOT going to be about 2011.
You play one season at a time on the major league level.
Hughes and Chamberlain have proved they are major leaguers and that’s what they’ll be.
–
Then why not just throw Joba to the wolves his 2nd season? Why have innings limits? The Yankees and other smart baseball people look towards the future with their prospects. Thats why certain players are signed, trades made, rules implemented.
Everyone wants to win now, but not everyone mortgages the future to do it.
To answer some questions about options…
Chamberlain should have all three options remaining because he’s never been sent to the minors while on the 40-man roster.
Hughes should also have options left. He has been sent to the minors while on the 40-man in three different seasons, but I don’t think he burned an option each time. In 2007 he opened in Triple-A before he was on the 40-man, then he went to New York and was injured. As I remember it — and the media guide seems to back this up — his other minor league appearances that season were on a rehab assignment. Rehabs don’t burn options.
In 2009, Hughes opened in Triple-A. The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre season started on April 9 and Hughes was called to New York 19 days later on April 28. Players only burn an option if they’re in the minors leagues for a certain amount of time, and I beleive that limit is 20 days. Any player optioned to the minors for less than that doesn’t actually burn an option. He has to have an option remaining to be sent down, but he doesn’t burn it if the assignment lasts fewer than 20 days.
———————————————————-
Chad, I’m the one who asked about this in the last thread…thank you for investigating and replying.
pat
January 4th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
Positive report today from Dr. Andrews on former #Yankees RHP Wang. Could throw off mound in 6 to 8 weeks. Agents expect heightened interest …
1 minute ago from txt
*********************
That’s great news for Wang. I’m still hoping that he and the Yankees can work something out.
“Wave, I’m not sure what you’re referring to. He’s not going to be in the rotation this year so IMO he must go to AAA and prepare for next year or to come up and be a spot starter. The Yankees need to have a little foresight here….”
Betsy, IF Phil is not to be a starter this year, how much cost-controlled use are the Yanks ever going to get from him? IMO, not enough. He came up in 2007 – it’s 2010 already.
Either start him in the majors, use him as the set-up man or trade him.
Plan A is by far the better choice. There should be no reason to waste one of the two star pitchers in the minors. Keep one of them in the pen where they have both proved them selves. Plus Rivera will eventually need a replacement and I think that the closer position should be filled by one of them when that time comes. I would rather see joba in the pen just because he hasn’t proved himself as much as a starter as he has a reliever. But still hughes could take the the bullpen spot and I would have no problem with it.
Option 2 makes a lot of sense on paper for the reasons that have been discussed (keeping one stretched out). However, I can’t see the team ever doing that.
I can just picture the morons grilling Girardi/Cashman if one of the starters has two straight bad outings.
I’d like to see Option 1, with the caveat that the guy in the pen pitches 2+ innings each time out. It’s definitely harder to manage the game, and takes him out of the everday 8th inning role. Someone will go down with an injury.
As I mentioned before, there was only 1 team this past decade that made it through an entire season with only 5 starters. The average team during that period used 10 pitchers over the course of the season.
“So the question is, are the Yanks better off buying insurance for an unlikely event in the form of sending Phil or Joba down to AAA (and you can’t even be positive that form of insurance will be effective), or are they better off getting value for money by using one of them in the pen or trading one? I think the answer is clear, and it doesn’t involve AAA.”
I don’t think that answer is clear in any way. It’s an issue of trade offs and how one wants to stratify risk.
Why would this yankee team miss the playoffs and/ or not win the division?
I don’t think that difference is going to occur because Phil Hughes or Joba is so much better than Dave Robertson given the available innings to pitch out of the pen.
If the starters stay healthy as you are suggesting, then there just isn’t very much for the bull pen to do.
As such I think the greatest value of Hughes/Joba (whichever doesn’t go to rotation) in 2010 is to be true 6th starters.
If they can keep Hughes/Joba stretched out out of the major league pen, that would be great.
I’m just not sure it’s viable to keep them stretched out from the pen.
Finally, there is a great deal of value both in terms of 2010 and the future to sending Hughes down to AAA to make sure he throws 150-170 innings this season.
If the starters stay healthy there just aren’t that many innings for the pen to throw.
Joba to the bullpen until he realizes that he needs to throw what is called, attack hitters, and throw strikes.
Quit shaking off the sign. Quit nibbling. Quit walking around. Get the ball, get the sign, and throw.
They should assign him Catfish Hunter’s number ASAP. Maybe that would get him moving.
Man im not sure which one of these are better?
Hughes vs.Joba
Melky vs.Gardner
Alex vs. Betimet
Alex vs. Ransom
Wang vs. #1
Godzilla vs. Stealth
Tough call. It never gets old though.
Joba will start in the majors all year unless he gets injured. I expect that he’ll start slow, and end slow, but he should have a few very strong months (I’m gonna say mid-May through the end of August he’ll be very, very good). Hughes SHOULD start the year in AAA. Saying that he has “nothing to gain” from pitching in AAA is bogus. He has a workload capacity and secondary pitches that both need to be improved upon. Just because he might throw up a 1.5 ERA as a starter there doesn’t mean the whole process will be useless. Anyway, he’ll come up if/when somebody else gets injured, and then probably be shut down or turned into a reliever towards the end of the season, depending on the team’s needs. I am worried, though, that he begins the year in the pen, which will not only screw the team over for next year, but also for this one, if somebody gets injured. A stretched-out phil hughes can pitch at least as well as a starter as Mitre and Gaudin can, and probably a lot better, even now.
Stuckey, IMO, that plan would show a complete lack of foresight on the part of the Yankees……and it would tell me they’ve given up on him (based on starting in bits and pieces of 3 years) as a starter. In that case, just trade the kid.
It appears the Sox are closing in on Beltre…….
————————————————-
If true this would proabably put Boston over the luxury tax threshold.
“pat
January 4th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
Positive report today from Dr. Andrews on former #Yankees RHP Wang. Could throw off mound in 6 to 8 weeks. Agents expect heightened interest …
1 minute ago from txt
*********************
That’s great news for Wang. I’m still hoping that he and the Yankees can work something out.”
Where would wanger fit in… Scranton. Not against the Idea at all, just wondering where he fits in…
MLB Network is currently showing game 6…Matsui coming to the plate
CB-
Without Hughes or Chamberlain in the pen the depth is shallow, despite the likely fewer ininnngs the pen will pitch this year.
I’m not sure it makes any difference how many AAA innings Phil throws this year. I don’t think there’s much evidence that at Phil’s age (he’s no longer a baby) minor league innings much difference in avoiding injury the following year in the majors. And I don’t think the AAA innings will be particularly useful in his growth path toward being a starter.
I like Robertson, but I don’t like the notion of handing him the full-time set-up role. After seeing the way Girardi used him in the playoffs, I don’t think the Yanks are sold on giving him that spot.
So I think the loser goes to the pen, but I still think the best use would be to trade the loser for an OF if possible. I would not think so if this were 2008 or even 2009, but there’s just not that much cost-controlled time left for either to justify stashing one of them in the minors.
hughes had the same struggles starting that joba had. they nibble, they throw in the low 90s and struggled with pitch count. Why everyone is convinced hughes will be a better starter than joba is beyond me.
“MLB Network is currently showing game 6…Matsui coming to the plate”
My only disappointment of this offseason. Going to miss Godzilla.
I like the Johnson signing, but I’d be lying if I wasn’t concerned about his inability to stay healthy (I know most of his injuries were flukes).
“Why everyone is convinced hughes will be a better starter than joba is beyond me.”
Because Joba wasn’t 100% lights out this year. The expectations were unrealistic – especially for a young guy with little minor league experience coming off a shoulder injury.
My prediction – they will both be very good/great starting pitchers, with Joba having more success.
S.o.S.
January 4th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
Man im not sure which one of these are better?
Hughes vs.Joba
Melky vs.Gardner
Alex vs. Betimet
Alex vs. Ransom
Wang vs. #1
Godzilla vs. Stealth
Tough call. It never gets old though.
*******************
Alex vs. Ransom is my personal favorite.
Betsy,
No matter how much you want to, they aren’t trading Phil Hughes.
Most likely, he will be the 5th starter and Joba will be in the pen. The signs seem to point in that direction.
Either way, they won a World Championship with Hughes playing a major role. They aren’t trading him now because he has to compete for a starting spot. That’s not how it works.
“If the starters stay healthy there just aren’t that many innings for the pen to throw.”
Conversely, if this occurs, one of your best major league ready pitchers is pitching innings that don’t count for the call-up that will never come.
Pat M.
January 4th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
MLB Network is currently showing game 6…Matsui coming to the plate
*****************************
I miss Matsui already.
I like the Johnson signing, but I’d be lying if I wasn’t concerned about his inability to stay healthy (I know most of his injuries were flukes).
___
DHing will limit his chances of injury.
“Alex vs. Ransom is my personal favorite.”
Mine too. I’ll let y’all know when I make up my mind. (:
Sending one of them to AAA won’t really stretch them out too much since they will be on pitch counts and they wouldn’t want to burn their innings in AAA.
Both guys are important players on a World Championship team.
I don’t see either guy going to AAA unless its for an injury rehab.
Sometimes, folks overthink things. One will be in the rotation and the other will be in the bullpen, unless there is an injury to another starter, forcing the other into the rotation at the start of the year.
“Stuckey, IMO, that plan would show a complete lack of foresight on the part of the Yankees……and it would tell me they’ve given up on him (based on starting in bits and pieces of 3 years) as a starter. In that case, just trade the kid.”
It depends on that your priorities are. If it’s what’s best for the Yankees chances of repeating in 2010, or what’s best for the starting career of Phil Hughes, and I’m not even sure a year in the bullpen is THAT damaging to the latter.
Betsy, your premise is entirely based on the idea that being in the bullpen “stunts” Hughes’ “development” as a starter, and I’m curious if you have any evidence to support that assumption.
Is there history to cite that concerns you, or you going more by impression here?
Why? Because Hughes is too
I don’t think it’ll be a kick in the gut to be sent down to Scranton.
If Joba gets sent down, take it for what it is. A gut check. And besides, people say he struggles because he didn’t have enough time in the minors, right?
If Phil gets sent down, it’s because they view him as a part of the future rotation. Nothing wrong with that.
Pat M.
January 4th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
MLB Network is currently showing game 6…Matsui coming to the plate
————————————————————
Afternoon, Pat M. Hope all is well with you and the family.
Matsui had a pretty swing, huh? Very similar to Bobby Murcer’s swing.
One option I haven’t noticed anyone discussing is the idea of keeping them both active as starters on the big league rotation. I believe Joe Maddon has done this with the Ray’s on occasion. Each time our #5′s turn comes up in the rotation have Hughes go half the game and Chamberlain go the other half. This will rest our bullpen, and provide a nice 1-2 punch in a #5 slot that most clubs hope to just get by with.
hughes had the same struggles starting that joba had. they nibble, they throw in the low 90s and struggled with pitch count. Why everyone is convinced hughes will be a better starter than joba is beyond me.
–
330 IP 225 H 2.37 ERA 31 Wins 8 Losses 367 K’s 80 BB’s 10 HR
.924 WHIP
6.1 H/9 , 0.3 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9 , 4.59 K:BB
This pitcher is Phil Hughes throughout the minor leagues.
He pitches 92-95 with a fastball that has late movement and of which he as incredible contol. He learned a plus curveball in 1 season. He developed a strong cutter in 1 season. He has a slider he can pull out of his back pocket if needed that was a plus-pitch in high school. He is workong on a change that at times can be good (see: Texas Rangers, 2007).
Phil Hughes owns. Respect Hughes.
Erin,
The funny part about that is people were really ready to move on from one of the best players of all time to Betimet. But cant live with some normal Joe in left field. Go figure.
FOR WHOEVER RECOMENDED”Once upon a time in America”. Thank you. It was coincedently on one of my cable channels. Next time warn me that i have to put it on pause for a few P breaks. Almost 4 hours long. Good thing the kids didnt watch it.
“Where would wanger fit in… Scranton.”
Not likely to happen because he might price himself off the Yankee radar but for awhile, yes.
If you know you have a healthy Wang in Scranton by May/June, it is a valuable insurance policy at worst and it could give them the option to move a pitcher as the trade deadline approaches for a good return if (knock on wood)everyone is healthy.
“Without Hughes or Chamberlain in the pen the depth is shallow, despite the likely fewer ininnngs the pen will pitch this year.”
Just for clarification – I’m not discussing what I think the team will do – just fan chat over what they should do.
But on the point above, I think this is where we disagree. IMO bull pen depth is contextualized and dependent on expected performance by the rotation.
Bull pen value is a form of conditional probability.
This team is very good – especially it’s pitching – as long as the staff provides innings. I don’t think allocating additional talent resources to the pen vs. bolstering the staff is the best use of assets.
Andy is older and is only a season removed from having significant shoulder problems. Joba is a year removed from shoulder tendinitis. Hughes is only a year removed from a two year period littered with injuries.
Right now the yankees and sox rotation is comparable from starters 1-5.
One of the biggest marginal advantages the yankees have over the sox is starter 6.
Even without Hughes/Joba in the pen the yanks and sox have comparable bull pens.
Giving up the strategic advantage of that 6th starter isn’t a good idea.
Again – no team in baseball used fewer than 7 starters last year, IIRC.
There are going to be injuries to the rotation – the aggregate probability here is more certain than the risk of injury at the individual level
“If true this would proabably put Boston over the luxury tax threshold.”
One of the Boston baseball writers (Cafardo maybe?) wrote this weekend that Henry indicated “we’ll be over” when queried about the luxury tax.
Someone (another Boston sports scribe) had earlier put their payroll for lux tax purposes at $168M after factoring in all the bennies, arbitration and balance of the 40 man. Let’s say for the sake of argument they do offer Beltre $10M per and he takes it. That puts them at $178M, which translates to a tax of less than $2M (22.5% of $8M). Hard to imagine them being too terribly emotional over that.
mel,
Sorry to here about the knee injury. The same thing happened to Gonzalez in the first game of the year. Couldnt make it back this year. I wonder if his Pats days are over. Supposidly Eddleman is pretty good. I like the Colts chances to make it to the afc championship. Bring on the Bolts!!
The smart thing to do would be to sign Beltre. Insurance for an older, oft-injured Lowell. If they can find a taker, pay to make him go away. Or just have a really awesome, really expensive bench player.
After all, it’s only money.
SoS,
Was it that bad? I refuse to read about it. Love the Welker. Eddelman’s not bad, and you have to wait until they get up off the ground to see whose number’s on the jersey.
Hughes i agree is good, but Joba had great games too (see indians 2009 with belly flop) or the three games after the ASB. Both are extremely capable but know that stuff changes in the pen (gets faster). Hughes gained 3mph and joba gained 5 mph coming from the pen.
One thing i did see was Joba get a few back up there in the upper 90s in the playoffs back in the pen. it was nice to see, i just worry about moving him back yet again.
I think that niether goes to the minors period. The Yankees used up some bullpen strength in this off season. I can’t imagine them not planning on Joba or Hughes in the bullpen when con=sidering the trades. For me, it is Hughes as a starter and Joba to the pen.
There are valid arguements on both sides regarding Hughes & Joba…..However I don’t see either of them ever seeing the mound in Scranton unless it’s for a rehab assignment….Unless Young Master Hughes has a poor Spring, I see him being the choice for the 5th spot in the rotation in 2010……I still maintain the reason for Joba’s inconsistent year was not because of the tendonitis flare up in 2008, but rather due to him being in poor shape when he came to camp……Bullpen depth is a concern for me going into the 2010 season…However Joba or Hughes adds another lights out arm in the arsenal for Giradi to use in 2010……There is no doubt both have great upside and unlimited potential as starter in the years to come…It’s just not time for both of them to be in the rotation….Due keep in mind, Hughes is 23 & Joba is 24…..They seem to have been around forever, but they are still very young….They’re both here to stay…If they weren’t traded for Santana or Halladay, then they aren’t about to be traded for anyone……..They are vital clogs to the Yankee’s pitching
Here’s the deal, Joba throwing 90 – 93 is a run of the mill starter. Joba throwing 94 – 96 with that fire-breathing mentality is Mariano’s wingman until the great one calls it quits. That gives the Yanks the best back end bullpen in the game.
Hughes will be a much more accomplished starter than Joba, but he needs an effective off-speed pitch to complement the FB and CB…his experimental cutter should be thrashed by Eiland in ST.
Not likely to happen because he might price himself off the Yankee radar but for awhile, yes.
___
didnt his agent say that cashman told him to bring any offer wang gets back to him before he signs and he would match it, within reason?
“Each time our #5’s turn comes up in the rotation have Hughes go half the game and Chamberlain go the other half”
#5 comes up 30 or so times per year. That’s roughly 270 innings to split, provided the bullpen isn’t needed in some games. Say Mo closes 10 of those games and one of the two pitchers is removed for ineffectiveness another 15-18 times. You’re talking about splitting 240 IP or less. That’s a 25% step backwards for Chamberlain and doesn’t seem to put Hughes any closer to being a 180-200 inning guy.
“Then why not just throw Joba to the wolves his 2nd season? Why have innings limits? The Yankees and other smart baseball people look towards the future with their prospects. Thats why certain players are signed, trades made, rules implemented.
Everyone wants to win now, but not everyone mortgages the future to do it.”
Its always easy to rebut the hyper-extended, extreme case scenario of someone’s point.
I never suggested a “mortgage the future” approach, nor do I think having Hughes spend another year in the bullpen qualifies.
By sending Hughes (or Chamberlain) backwards (which is surely what extended time in AAA means) to “assure” his 2011 is simply the type of idea that sounds reasonable superficially, but doesn’t hold water.
For one, Hughes (and/or Chamberlain) are HUMAN BEINGS, not pitching machines. They both will be wearing championships rings on their fingers and are now used to being major league players.
Hughes specifically learned last year that it was about being a major leaguer and winning a championship, not about “role”, which might have been key to his performance.
We talk (presumably) a lot about his inning limits and his 3rd and 4th pitchs. But what do you think sending a guy who was a key man on a Word Series winner back to Scranton and AAA roadtrips for perhaps the better part of a year going to do to his mental make-up?
Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are WS-winning, major league baseball players, and good ones at that. Its now up to the Yanks to come up with a plan to maximize their value under THAT reality.
Joba will get the number 5 spot, win the Cy Young, MVP, Hank Aaron award, Roberto Clemente award, Silver Slugger, ALCS MVP, World Series MVP, start the all-star game, and throw 7 perfect games. Okay, I kid. I do think Joba will get the number 5 spot though, he’s had a few years of being terrible in starts, being great in starts, and falling somewhere in the middle. I think he can go 15-7 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Hughsie should be sent to the ‘pen as the primary set-up man, but Girardi can use him like he did Aceves last year, sending him out for 1, 2, 3, maybe even 4 innings. If someone goes down with injury, Hughes would be in a position to make a 4 or 5 inning spot start, and then fill-in as needed from there on out.
I only hope that Hughes and Chamberlain can last longer than Bouton, Stafford, Sheldon and Downing
if joba goes back to the pen, you have to be sure you NEVER intend for him to be a successful starter. there is too much damage that comes with getting his limit up only to shoot it back down.
tex’s friend
January 4th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Not likely to happen because he might price himself off the Yankee radar but for awhile, yes.
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didnt his agent say that cashman told him to bring any offer wang gets back to him before he signs and he would match it, within reason?
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I heard something like that too.
I would set up a four man competition for the fifth spot. Hughes, Chamberlan, Gaudin, & Mitre. Let the best man win. The rest go to AAA or the pen.
CB,
Well put. I love reading your argument on this Joba/Phil issue. I’m glad I’m on the same side as you on this one.
My Yankees fans friends are really intrigued by who wins that 5th spot.
I think Joba will win it but hey, I thought Melky was gonna beat Gardner in ST last year.
It’s a true competition and far more interesting than Melky/Gardner which was fascinating in its own way.
Joba’s got mental problems like his Mother.
CB-
You make very good points, as always.
However, I think the 2010 Yankee rotation is an exception to the rule that you never have enough starting pitching. IMO, 4 out of the 5 starters are very likely to pitch 175+ innings each, and 2 or 3 of them 200+ innings each. Sure, there may be an injury, but the probability is much lower than is normally the case, IMO. Plus, right now Chad Gaudin is a perfectly acceptable 6th starter. The difference between Chad Gaudin and either Phil Hughes or Joba in the role of emergency starter is not enough to lose the major league services of either Phil or Joba for any period of time.
When you look at the pen, without Phil or Joba there is Mo, then Marte, Robertson, Aceves and mix-and-match other guys. I would typically be comfortable with that, as I was going into last year in fact, but we got burned last year and who’s to say it won’t happen again, even if the starters do pitch more innings?
At least, I suspect the Yanks will think that way. They won’t send either to the minors.
And if it is a question what Wave’s world would like to see, I’d like to see Hughes start, and Joba+ traded to Texas for Nelson Cruz. Probably won’t happen – in all likelihood won’t happen – but that’s what I’d like in my perfect world.
joba gained 5 mph coming from the pen.
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Joba threw 97-100 as a starter in the minors.
I say the more starters we have the merrier.
CC
AJ
Andy
Javy
Hughes
Joba
Gaudin
Mitre
Aceves
Wang (if we get him to return)
The AAA’s.
Can NEVER have too much pitching. Ask the Sux about that.
joba gained 5 mph coming from the pen.
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Joba threw 97-100 as a starter in the minors.
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And 91-93 in the majors. Who cares what he did in the minors if he cannot do it on the big league club.
SJ, I don’t want Phil to be traded; I would be very upset if he were. I throw those comments out out of frustration because I don’t know if he’s going to get the chance to become the starter most of us think he can be. When I say trade him, I say that ONLY if the Yankees intend to keep him in the pen, which is a waste. I think it’s in the Yankees bests interests to develop him as a starter – which is why I am for sending him to AAA if he doesn’t make the rotation.
“The smart thing to do would be to sign Beltre. Insurance for an older, oft-injured Lowell”
M:
If they sign Beltre, I’d be stunned if Lowell played another game for them….ever. Even if it means Boston paying all his salary. Everything I’ve read suggests that the Boston organization loves the guy but thinks he just can’t do it anymore. Can’t hit on the road and can’t play defense any longer, etc. I can’t imagine them keeping Lowell from an opportunity to play elsewhere when they don’t seem to want him playing for them. I think he’s either traded with Boston eating $9-$10M or, failing that, he is released.
And 91-93 in the majors. Who cares what he did in the minors if he cannot do it on the big league club.
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Joba threw 97-100 as a starter in the majors before suffering shoulder injury near the end of 2008.
““Each time our #5’s turn comes up in the rotation have Hughes go half the game and Chamberlain go the other half”
#5 comes up 30 or so times per year. That’s roughly 270 innings to split, provided the bullpen isn’t needed in some games. Say Mo closes 10 of those games and one of the two pitchers is removed for ineffectiveness another 15-18 times. You’re talking about splitting 240 IP or less. That’s a 25% step backwards for Chamberlain and doesn’t seem to put Hughes any closer to being a 180-200 inning guy.”
Mix in a few starts for each when one of our regular starters go down or need a break, and I think we hit a healthy innings count for the both of them. Is it so bad that both could end up with a 150 inning mark plus the post season? I feel this would give us a strength that other teams would find hard to compete with. Our current bullpen depth makes me believe these players would be utilized greater in the starting pitcher mix.
“didnt his agent say that cashman told him to bring any offer wang gets back to him before he signs and he would match it, within reason?”
“Within reason” is different amounts to different people.
I would love for Wang to give the Yanks a right of first refusal but he doesn’t owe them that nor do they owe him to beat his best offer. It needs to make sense for both sides.
mel,
They are doing more tests today. Its supposidly acl and mcl. I believe he is a free agent after next year. If that is the injury. Im sure he’s done for next season. Everyone is saying that it makes Polians decision very smart not to go after the record. Thats not true. It happened on the second drive of the game. The Colts starters would have still been in. Speaking of injuries. I think its time to cut Bob “glass” Sanders. We can use the money we save for someone who can actually play the field.
GB7, I’ve been a fan a long time (since 70)…but who is: “Bouton, Stafford, Sheldon and Downing”?
“However, I think the 2010 Yankee rotation is an exception to the rule that you never have enough starting pitching.”
Wave,
I just can’t see planning based on the idea of exceptionalism. I agree with you that this staff is far less likely to not provide innings than most other, I still don’t think you plan on that luxury.
The aggregate probability of injury across the rotation has much less variance in it than risk at the individual level.
Last year part of why the bull pen got shelled in the beginning of the season was because Wang gave them no length.
As an aside – I don’t think either will be sent to AAA. I just think that is the best use of available resources both for the short term and long term.
If the pen needs bolstering there are still many options down on the farm and you could of course always bring hughes/joba up later to patch a hole in the pen.
A couple of things…
Would love to have Pujols, but it will never happen. There’s no where for him to play unless he becomes our Full Time DH. And you know how the Yankees hate Full Time DHs who aren’t versatile.
If BOS is getting Belte, doesn’t that mean that they are going to eat Lowell’s salary? That’s a lot of cash to swallow.
It makes no sense for Hughes or Joba to go down to Triple A again. These guys are World Champs. There’s nothing down there that they can’t learn up here. If it were me, I’d let them fight it out for the 5th rotation spot and whoever loses is Mo’s setup guy.
“didnt his agent say that cashman told him to bring any offer wang gets back to him before he signs and he would match it, within reason?”
He may have asked him, but I doubt they told him.
I still think the Yankees aren’t likely to be Wang’s best option as he’d technically be #7 in a 5 man rotation, needing injury/ineffectiveness in order to get a big league starting job. There are a lot of places where he stands to be #5 (or less). As a contract in excess of a year would seem unlikely, Wang really needs to be somewhere where he will pitch in 2010 to put himself in the best position to secure his future.
Stuckey, I promise that I’m thinking of what’s best for the Yankees in addition to what’s best for Phil. Of course we want to have the best chance we can of repeating as world champs, but we have to think about the future as well. It’s a heck of a lot easier to develop young players outside of NY and also on a bad team because no one cares and these kids can just do their thing. I recognize the fine line Cash has to walk, I do.
As to the pen, he already “wasted” a year there. I understand the confidence thing, but keep in mind he completely lost it in the playoffs, so whatever confidence Phil may have gained, he may have lost. Two years in the pen as a set up man just seems to me to be a terrible way to develop a starter; he’s not that young anymore.
What a great problem to have…Arguing about Joba or Hughes for the #5 slot…
http://www.replacementlevel.co.....hamberlain
This has all you need to know about Joba’s velocity. This is counting his starts, not relief appearances.
Fastball 2008: Max 100.2, Min 89.8, Avg 95.1
Fastball 2009: Max 97.6 , Min 87, Avg 92.5
There could be some stiff competition for Wang.
M:
If they sign Beltre, I’d be stunned if Lowell played another game for them….ever. Even if it means Boston paying all his salary. Everything I’ve read suggests that the Boston organization loves the guy but thinks he just can’t do it anymore. Can’t hit on the road and can’t play defense any longer, etc. I can’t imagine them keeping Lowell from an opportunity to play elsewhere when they don’t seem to want him playing for them. I think he’s either traded with Boston eating $9-$10M or, failing that, he is released.
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If boston was going to pay his salary anyway, might as well keep him on the bench. he can back up 3rd and first. why would they pay him just to help another team? i know that was the plan with texas but it is dumb. they are still paying for Lugo too. And people say Cashman isnt a good GM. At least we arent paying for players on other teams.
Noreaster
January 4th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
GB7, I’ve been a fan a long time (since 70)…but who is: “Bouton, Stafford, Sheldon and Downing”?
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jim Bouton, bill stafford, Roland sheldon and al Downing was prpbably the best group of top of the line pitching talant that the Yankees ever put together. Arm injuries after their careers started out great ruined them. Each had great success until then. Bouton wone 21 games in his 2nd year, Downing had mid-2.00 ERAs and won 13 games in his first two years along with a league high strikeouts in 1964. Sheldon won 11 games after coming to MYY around mid season in 1961 and Bill stafford won in the 12-14 range in his first two full seasons. All about 22-23 years old. The best of the bunch came about two years later when Mel stottlemyre showed up. After 10 seasons, he tore a rotator cuff in ’74 and was finished. He could have been a HOFer.
Same nonsense, different day.
Doesn’t it get old for the regulars to read the same garbage over and over from the same poster?
This isn’t the Phil Hughes Yankees, its the New York Yankees. Get a grip.
With that being said, I agree with CB regarding starting one of Hughes and Joba in AAA. Motivation never hurt anyone and if that situation doesn’t work out all you have to do is recall them from Scranton. Its not rocket science.
I am of the impression that the front office would ideally want both Hughes and Joba in the rotation in 2011. Even if one only spends a few months in AAA then is recalled and stays with the ML team for the rest of the year, they still will accumulate more innings down there than they would in an 8th inning role.
Hypothetically if Joba or Hughes spends April and May in AAA (my best bet is Hughes) that pitcher then will still acccumulate a decent inning count if they spend the last 4 months in the ML bullpen.
You just don’t want either of them pitching some ridiculously low inning total spending the entire year in the pen, thus making the option of starting them in 2011 virtually impossible…. unless Cash sees one of them (probably Joba) as being a career bullpen guy and successor to Mo.
In summary, the way the Yankees structure the 2010 pitching staff will show their vision of the future in terms of Joba and Phil. We’ll just have to wait and see what that is.
GB…Man, Bouton & Downing were going to be the foundation of the Yankee staff for the 60′s along with Mel Stott….Jim Stafford was to round out the staff as Ford was being groomed for retirement…..Then came ROY Stan Bhanston……Bouton had Ace written all over him until his shoulder blew out like a bad tire……
“I just can’t see planning based on the idea of exceptionalism. I agree with you that this staff is far less likely to not provide innings than most other, I still don’t think you plan on that luxury.”
The Yanks are paying top dollar for that exceptionalism, and I think in this case they can’t be criticized for planning on it.
But to me, even if you are right and it is a luxury and you shouldn’t plan on it, the question is, what is the highest and best use of the current resources? I think the best use would be to turn one of Joba or Hughes into a good young outfielder, and barring that use one of them in the set-up role, and in either case let Chad Gaudin, who is a perfectly acceptable starter for most teams, be the 6th starter.
You clearly don’t agree and I respect that, of course.
GreenBeret7
January 4th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Noreaster
January 4th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
GB7, I’ve been a fan a long time (since 70)…but who is: “Bouton, Stafford, Sheldon and Downing”?
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That was Al Downing, who after tearing up his shoulder, resurfaced in 1970 and won 20 games for the Dodgers. He also gave up Henry Aaron’s 715th homer. He was a flame throwing little left hander.
Pat M.
January 4th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
GB…Man, Bouton & Downing were going to be the foundation of the Yankee staff for the 60’s along with Mel Stott….Jim Stafford was to round out the staff as Ford was being groomed for retirement…..Then came ROY Stan Bhanston……Bouton had Ace written all over him until his shoulder blew out like a bad tire……
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Stafford was a lot like Hughes. Tall, young and talented. Came up big in 1961 with 13 wins. What a talent. Downing had a Sandy Koufax fastball and that big, hard overhand curveball. Like Guidry, I don’t know how he could generate that power. Bouton could have been special. I was too young to realize what that delivery of his was doing. Reminded my of a young John smoltz in some ways. Hat flying off when his arm came past his head. Sheldon was the less talented, but, he jbew how to win games.
“If boston was going to pay his salary anyway, might as well keep him on the bench. he can back up 3rd and first.”
Fair point. They could use him in some games…..against left handers…..in Fenway.
I just don’t think it would be comfortable for Lowell or the Red Sox. Beyond that, if it came down, Youkilis, Lowrie or Scutaro could spell at 3B and Kotchman could at 1B. Lowell would cause something of a roster crunch. Lowell gave them a discount (it was a discount then, anyway) to stay there in favor of Philly and from all I’ve read the organization has been thrilled with his pre-injury play and clubhouse presence/professionalism. Unlike some of their past player relationships, where the club was quick to air dirty laundry, past contract proposals turned down, etc., I think there is legit respect between the parties, and the team, recognizing the $12M is pretty much dead money anyway, will do right by Lowell via a trade or release.
Everything seemed to go wrong for the Yankees in the second half of the 60s – the injured pitchers, the misguided hate toward Roger Maris, no successor to the Mick; Kubek and Richardson retiring young, the trade of Clete Boyer….the list goes on and on. No one to step up and take over for George Weiss – though he was instrumental in the Yanks missing out on players like Mays and Banks.
The not-so-good old days.
Pat M.
January 4th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
GB…Man, Bouton & Downing were going to be the foundation of the Yankee staff for the 60’s along with Mel Stott….Jim Stafford was to round out the staff as Ford was being groomed for retirement…..Then came ROY Stan Bhanston……Bouton had Ace written all over him until his shoulder blew out like a bad tire……
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There was one other young kid that came up in ’85 or ’66. First ML start was a 9 or 10 strikeout win and about 3 hits. Next start was a complete game shutout. Hurt his arm after that start and never pitched again. Rich Beck.
GB, Bouton had such a violent delivery, and as you noted he came right over the top….But man did he have a giddy-up fastball or what….Some say his screwball is what did him in……As Joe from Long Island pointed out, everything went south for them after the 64 Series…But you can see things now in retrospect how the club was having issues…They had a great run in late August and September to win the AL Pennant……CBS destroyed the Organization
“As to the pen, he already “wasted” a year there. I understand the confidence thing, but keep in mind he completely lost it in the playoffs, so whatever confidence Phil may have gained, he may have lost. Two years in the pen as a set up man just seems to me to be a terrible way to develop a starter; he’s not that young anymore.”
Understood, but we’re once again beginning with a premise that you acknowledge is based on how it “seems” to you.
Is there any support out there to suggest the AAA starts > major league innings if the idea is for him to spend the majority of his career as a front of the rotation guy?
Are we pretty much ruining his chances to be a future 300 game winner? Yeah, I’d agree with that. But other than that, I’d like to see someone provide some stats or case history suggesting one method of development is far superior to another.
For sake of argument were I to agree that AAA starting is superior, then I agree with you point.
The question is, is there any truth to the impression you’re under. Do you have any factual support in that assumption?
GB, Rich Beck was being compared to the Herb Score or even Bob Feller…..O
Both Guys can honestly coompete for that last rotation spot. Because both guys have proven to thrive in the 8th inning role.
Personally, I think Joba has closer stuff and Hughes has starter stuff.
Will either of them throw >95 MPH in a starting role? No.
So, who has 2 more above average pitches with control to accompany the 92-94 MPH fastball?
I think that’s Phil but other may disagree.
Is there any support out there to suggest the AAA starts > major league innings if the idea is for him to spend the majority of his career as a front of the rotation guy?
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The point is that Hughes needs to throw between 160 and 175 innings to get off any kind of developmental leash the yankees have him on. Unless they decided that next season, no matter what happens in 2010, Hughes will be allowed to throw however many innings he can go.
I don’t think the yankees are going to do that. So putting him in AAA and having him log innings until he is needed in the starter role would be purely to allow him to stretch out for 2011. Unless the bullpen is pissing its pants in the 8th inning, it should not have a great effect on the yankees.
Will either of them throw >95 MPH in a starting role? No.
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Joba does.
Joe from Long Island
January 4th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Everything seemed to go wrong for the Yankees in the second half of the 60s – the injured pitchers, the misguided hate toward Roger Maris, no successor to the Mick; Kubek and Richardson retiring young, the trade of Clete Boyer….the list goes on and on. No one to step up and take over for George Weiss – though he was instrumental in the Yanks missing out on players like Mays and Banks.
The not-so-good old days.
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Joe, Weiss had first crack at Mays, Banks and aaron. Tom Greenwade begged Weiss to sign them before anybody realized just how good they were. They wanted to be Yankees. Weiss refused because he said that no black player would ever wear pinstripes as long as he was there. It killed them in the end. They finally signed Vic Power, a 1st naseman/outfielder with speed and power…and a love for white women. They finally signed Ellie Howard. He was an outstanding ballplayer.
Johnny Keane replacing Berra in 1965 killed all that was left. He lied to Maris, who told him that his hand was just sprained, when he had 3 broken bones and torn ligaments. It never healed and his power was gone.
GB, to answer your question, I’m not sure LA would take Gaudin straight up for Sherrill, but Gaudin could be the starting point of the conversation. Sherrill’s contract is probably more than Gaudin’s will be, so LA would save some $$ there. And they need starting rotation depth after losing Wolf, and we need bullpen depth in my opinion.
Plan 1 from inner-space for Joba, permanently.
Much to people’s dismay, Joba did not regain his dominance out of the bullpen last year. His velocity was still inconsistent and control was absolutely shaky. If he comes to spring training with the same problems, he needs to be sent down to AAA. Those who disagree with that and believe he can contribute out of the bullpen are delusional and are holding onto the absurd fact that the Joba from 07 will suddenly appear.
Move Joba to the pen once and for all. Just jerking both Hughes and him around and groom Joba to succeed Mo. Joba has both closer’s stuff and the right mental makeup for it. Plus, he gives the team an emotional lift when he’s out there. Let someone like Gaudin, Mitre, or another young arm step up and be a fifth starter if needed during the season.
Looking at their stats from 2009, if Chamberlain is in the rotation, we will have 5 starters who will probably average 32 starts and 200 innings. – they all had at least 32 starts and except for Chamberlain and Pettitte, they all had over 200 IP. That equals 160 games and 1000 innings. Remember, there are 162 games and about 1460 innings in a season.
Without an innings limit and assuming he can pitch effectively as a starter over a full season, Chamberlain will probably get to 200 innings. Pettitte, now a year older, may or may not be able to repeat his 2009 numbers. It is also unclear if AJ will be able to repeat.
Looking at the pen last year, they averaged a little over an inning per appearance. If you carry 7 relievers and they throw 50-70 innings each, and if Aceves and Hughes occasionally throw multiple innings, that uses up most of your innings.
Last year, the patchwork- no criticism intended- of #5 starters increased the starts the relievers got. With Vazquez in the rotation this should not happen in 2010. Even giving the starters an occasional extra day or 2 between starts, unless a starter is injured there is no way Hughes gets more than the 7 starts he had in 2009.
If this happens it is probably unlikely he will pitch over 100 innings, and there is little chance he will be stretched out in the event they need him as a starter. In 2011 he may still be on an innings limit- the Hughes Rules.
I’m not sure what the answer is, but barring an injury by a starter or ineffectiveness by Chamberlain, I think putting Hughes in the pen for most/all of 2010 is not the solution.
I love the idea of keeping them both starters but I just don’t think this is really the best option for the Champs. The best option is to put Joba in the pen in the 8th inning role. His stuff was electric in 2007/early 2008 when it was his role and this year in the playoffs he pitched well too considering he hadn’t done it all year. Hughes has shown more flashes of brilliance as a starter (Texas 2008 before he hurt his hamstring) and at times this year. I think that this also sets up the future of the Yankees much better. Instant closer to step in if Mo were to get hurt and when he retires (hopefully) years from now. This also leaves room in the rotation for a free agent next offseason or for a young guy or maybe even Wang after a year or so of rehab.
Joba=pen
Does anybody realize that Joba was TERRIBLE out of the bullpen in 09? He was bad during the regular season and outside one appearance in the playoffs, he was still bad then. Ever since his shoulder injury in Texas last year, Joba has not been the same pitcher. Just check fangraphs out and look at the average velocity readings before and after the injury. There is a startling difference between them. Joba was consistently throwing above 95 in and out of the bullpen before the texas start. After that, his average velocity has not peaked over 95. I find that pretty alarming and it dismisses the stupid believe of putting Joba in the bullpen will make him throw hard again.
Anyone discussing Humberto Sanchez. He was once considered a high rated prospect with the Tigers. Then injured, now what are his chances.
They are in the big leagues now. It will be a make-or-break 2010 season for both Joba and Phil Hughes.