Chapman might be close to signing
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 05, 2010 
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According to the Sun Sentinal, Aroldis Chapman told one “associate” that he plans to sign within three or four days. The linked article says the Marlins are making a big push for the hard-throwing left-hander, but also says an industry source believes the Blue Jays and Angels are the most likely destinations.
My guess — and this is just a guess — is that no one has a good feel for where Chapman is going to end up. Every team is interested, a lot of teams seem willing to pay big and no team wants to leak just how much they’re willing to pay.
The Chapman tidbit comes at the end of a day that became a bit more eventful than expected.
• Jason Bay officially joined the Mets, and in the process refuted pretty much every story written about him in the past month. He said stories of his reluctance to sign “couldn’t be further from the truth” and said he hasn’t had a shoulder injury since surgery in 2003. “It’s been great ever since,” he said. “It’s another of those things that took on a life of its own.”
• Randy Johnson retired during a very gracious conference call, having made a last second decision to make his announcement tonight rather than tomorrow when he would have interfered with the Hall of Fame class of 2010. “I did not by any means want to announce my official retirement on the same day as that.”
• The Matt Holliday deal is done. It’s a huge seven-year deal that, Keith Law writes, comes with considerable long-term risk but makes the Cardinals heavy division favorites and might help persuade Albert Pujols to re-sign.
• The Indians made the Shelley Duncan signing official. It’s a minor league deal, and Duncan will compete for a job as a corner outfielder and first baseman. “We see (Duncan) as a guy that has a good track record of hitting left-handed pitching and being productive,” general manager Mark Shapiro said. “He has defensive versatility that fits well within our needs. He’s certainly a guy that could come in and compete for that job.”
• Having signed Adrian Beltre, the Red Sox had absolutely no role for Casey Kotchman so they traded him to the Mariners for Bill Hall and a minor leaguer. Sounds like the Red Sox are also getting cash to cover some of Hall’s ugly contract.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, they officially named Mike Cameron their center fielder and moved Jacoby Ellsbury to left.
RS Big spenders!
I still think we’re getting Chapman.
Phil-
I really hope you are right.
Agree Phil and MTU. Really hope Chapman ends up in Yankee pinstripes!
i don’t.
lot of money to earmark for a very raw pitcher.
if the $25 million would come out of the normal IFA budget (at the expense of not signing other multiple IFA’s) then i would prefer the yankees pass.
in other words, if it is an “all your eggs in 1 basket” situation, PASS
Phil-
Didn’t you also think Holliday would be a Yankee?
“My guess — and this is just a guess — is that no one has a good feel for where Chapman is going to end up. Every team is interested, a lot of teams seem willing to pay big and no team wants to leak just how much they’re willing to pay.”
I was going to post something to this effect, but you did it better than I could.
vinny-b
As long as it’s a mL deal, I think it’s special appropriation that won’t have an effect on anything else.
They are printing money at NYS. This is a good place to spend it.
The ghost of Kei Igawa looms heavily in Cashman’s mind. I think he’ll be reluctant to hand over big money to a pitcher he doesn’t have a firm grasp on.
Scott Boras was on XM Radio a little while ago. When asked about Damon back on the Yankees, sounds like there’s been no recent contact. Of course will he take the 3M the Rangers still have allocated for a DH?
Chapman would be a good signing for the Marlins especially if he progresses fast and comes up to the team to help put fans in the seats. Why would he want to be in Toronto, unless he believes our health care system is headed for the toilet???!!
“unless he believes our health care system is headed for the toilet?”
Please stop.
I think the Yankees’ budget for the 2010 ML team is a different one than the one for FA signings. So, I don’t think any money set aside for Chapman factors into that.
Having said that, I think that if they want Chapman, they can outbid anybody. The only reason why he would go somewhere else would be if the Yankees just don’t feel that the value is there. Just my thought.
For any team bidding on Chapman, the big thing that will drive their appraisal of his value is whether or not they feel very confident that he will be a starting pitcher rather than a reliever.
Lost In Where – Aroldis Is?
“vinny-b
As long as it’s a mL deal, I think it’s special appropriation that won’t have an effect on anything else.
They are printing money at NYS. This is a good place to spend it”
—————————————————–
Rich: if the above is the case (which Brian Cashman himself may not even know) then by all means, sign him.
however, as fans we don’t know these details
Nick-
Where done trustin that aren’t we ?
I’m placing my bets on the Marlins. No state income tax. Large signing bonus, with lower per year salary. They trade Uggla to make salary room to bring in Chapman. Just my 2 cents!
Buddy,
I thought we’d swoop if the price stayed around 5 years and 80-85M. It didn’t stay there and we didn’t swoop. Cards apparently bid against themselves.
Where are all of the stories about the Cards “bidding against themselves?”
CB,
In the price he got.
“The ghost of Kei Igawa looms heavily in Cashman’s mind”
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he is living, and already has a ghost and soon to be completed statue outside scranton-wilkes barre stadium. Not bad
I would like Mr. Holliday Inn to provide a post mortem.
Weren’t the O’s interested in Holliday?, prolly just kicking the tires tho.
Nick-
That would be interesting.
“Weren’t the O’s interested in Holliday?, prolly just kicking the tires tho”
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do they ever do anything else? They couldn’t even secure Vlad
My sources tell me that Holliday’s father always wanted Chapman to be a Yankee.
Heres a question…. Are the RS officially over luxury tax mark? If so its kind of funny that their owner was crying for a salary cap.
do they ever do anything else? They couldn’t even secure Vlad
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Very true, thankfully they signed Albert “Joey” Belle. If I remember correctly, the Yanks were close to signing him at the time.
buddy: yes. The attorney at law, bailed the yankees out big time, on that one
bernie williams legacy as well
Suspect tomorrow will be a NO Trade/Signing day, due to the HOF announcements.
Chad-Who do you think gets in?
I’m guessing for sure-Dawson and Alomar, with hope that Blyleven finally makes it.
January 5th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
Pat M.
January 5th, 2010 at 10:06 pm
GB, Mantle’s issue with kids and autograph’s some have suggested was due to his guilt about his own kids and his poor fathering perceptions…….I saw him at Spring Trainings and he always seemed to be a happy go lucky guy…He spent some time with the OF’ers, but he was just killing time to hit the links with Whitey. Murcer & Michaels….I do have an signed ball by him & Joe Namath, from when they had their Personnel firm / employment agency
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Namath Girls and Mantle Men. Yeah, Pat. I’m sure much of it had to do with family issues. There’s a book called “America’s Prodigal Son” by Tony Castro. It’s about Mantle. He interviewed everyone including Mick’s wife. He wrote that obviously most issues stemmed from the drinking, but, that was because of his father’s death and that of the entire Mantle males never reaching the age of 40. Castro says that Mantle and Mays were two of the most insecure adults that he gad ever researched…that neither one believed that they were really that good and that it wouldn’t last. great book.
“I’m guessing for sure-Dawson and Alomar, with hope that Blyleven finally makes it”
—————————————————
that would work. Although would prefer Alomar have to wait.
Dawson, Lee Smith, Raines, and Blyleven would work for me.
Are the RS officially over luxury tax mark? If so its kind of funny that their owner was crying for a salary cap.
————————————————-
They should be, since Lowell is still with the team. Am I correct that whatever salary they pay toward Lowell, when and if he’s traded, will be part of the 2010 projections for luxury tax over the 170 million threshold??
giambimustachesquad says:
January 5, 2010 at 10:29 pm
My sources tell me that Holliday’s father always wanted Chapman to be a Yankee.
———–
Hilarious!
Namath Girls-
Playboy had an article about the “300″ girls he had while he was at Univ. of Alabama- and that was just in one year.
He and Wilt Chamberlain were the ‘studs’ of their time, and probably some of the biggest liars!!!!
“Playboy had an article about the “300? girls he had while he was at Univ. of Alabama- and that was just in one year.
He and Wilt Chamberlain were the ’studs’ of their time, and probably some of the biggest liars!!!!”
——————————————-
ponch from chips, apparently had a few too
Yankee Trader
January 5th, 2010 at 10:40 pm
Namath Girls-
Playboy had an article about the “300? girls he had while he was at Univ. of Alabama- and that was just in one year.
He and Wilt Chamberlain were the ’studs’ of their time, and probably some of the biggest liars!!!!
————————————————————
Supposedly, Chamberlain’s nickname at Kansas was “The Big Dripper” because of ….errrr…medical issues,
That was one painful Orange Bowl factoid for Cal fans.
Supposedly, Chamberlain’s nickname at Kansas was “The Big Dripper” because of ….errrr…medical issues,
—————————————–
I never knew that!!! Can’t stop laughing!!!!
That’s a big “clap” and kudos to you for the most hilarious post!!!
Please hurry up and let Johnny sign with another team.
Unless Johnny will take 3-4 million for one year, there’s no room for him on the Braves. Plus do they trade Diaz or Melky, since they want to give Jason Heyward a chance to win a corner OF spot?
Yankee Trader
January 5th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
Supposedly, Chamberlain’s nickname at Kansas was “The Big Dripper” because of ….errrr…medical issues,
—————————————–
I never knew that!!! Can’t stop laughing!!!!
That’s a big “clap” and kudos to you for the most hilarious post!!!
————————————————————
I’d read that quite a few years ago. some say he got the name at Kansas and others say that was his nickname around the NBA. Glad you enjoyed it, Trader.
“Unless Johnny will take 3-4 million for one year, there’s no room for him on the Braves. Plus do they trade Diaz or Melky, since they want to give Jason Heyward a chance to win a corner OF spot?”
———————————————-
unless Johnny will take 3-4 million for one year, there’s no room for him on the Yankees
I have no doubt we’ll get Chapman. He’s basically an unrestricted free agent. If you’re a kid his age, why wouldn’t you choose the Yankees. Fresh off another championship, we’re the dominant franchise in all of sports. He won’t be able to get anywhere near the endorsement dollars in Miami that he would get in NY. It’s really a no brainer.
Johhny and Melky can be BFF ring buddies.
Hinske signed with Braves
Nick in SF
January 5th, 2010 at 10:57 pm
Johhny and Melky can be BFF ring buddies.
************
NO they can’t!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And you spelled Johnny’s name wrong.. UGH
I did spell it wrong, didn’t I… it’s like he’s already gone.
Nick in SF
January 5th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
I did spell it wrong, didn’t I… it’s like he’s already gone.
********************
Not in one of my more forgiving moods……
HISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Yankees will trade Boone Logan and Edwar Ramirez to Atlanta for outfielder Melky Cabrera,
GB7-
Yankees will trade Boone Logan and Edwar Ramirez to Atlanta for outfielder Melky Cabrera,
—————————————
Now why would the Yankees give up two relief pitchers who will allow more homers in half a season than Melky would hit in a year!!!!!
LOL So did Chapman refuse to give the Yankees the private workout they’d requested…….at the same time giving one to the Jays? If that’s the case, good riddance……
Rich, as to your question about Mauer, I wouldn’t do it just to block the Sox from getting him – if the Yankees want him and he’s a FA, then they should try and sign him for that reason. However you had specifically made the comment that the Yankees need to have payroll flexibility to block the Sox from making moves. The Yankees need to concentrate on their own needs, not trying to checkmate the Sox (unless, like Tex, it’s a player they want and need).
I’m not sure why people think the Sox have gained so many games on us… CB, you mentioned they are a 95 win team and the Yanks are 97. The Sox have improved, but so have the Yankees. I don’t see how they’ve gained 8 games on us.
So you’d prefer he come back to the Yankees?
“Hinske signed with Braves”
So the Braves get to go to the WS this year?
Interesting article on Fangraphs re managers
One post was Cashman vs Minaya
Bay 5 years for 80 mil
Cashman spent 50 mil for 3 yrs Granderson, 1 yr Pettitte, 1 – Vazquez, 1 – Johnson plus 2 draft picks if they don’t re sign Vazquez
Interesting take
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....-disparity
pat
His magic only works with AL teams. The fool he is!
As for LF, Blalock? Mora? Trade for Uggla (aren’t they wanting to cut payroll)?
Now that Kevin James is moving south of the Mason Dixon Line, who is on the Yanks bench right now, besides Hoffman ?????? Iowa, fake field goal on the 6 yard line ????/
The Yankees should have re-signed Hinske…I don’t get why they didn’t make an attempt to do so. I’d love Hairston to come back, but I don’t think the Yankees are interested, either.
My father ran into Mantle on plane trip home and said he wasn’t that friendly….
Nick in SF
January 5th, 2010 at 11:15 pm
So you’d prefer he come back to the Yankees?
***********
Are you talking to me??????
DUH!
It could hinge on how much Michelle likes Buckhead.
I suspect there are a lot of places in Atlanta that Johnny would like.
Nick in SF
January 5th, 2010 at 11:24 pm
It could hinge on how much Michelle likes Buckhead.
I suspect there are a lot of places in Atlanta that Johnny would like.
*************
Something tells me Michelle likes New York. She is also very tight with the other players wives
I suspect Cashman is going to give Miranda a shot to be the Lefty off the bench ????
Mark Newman sounded very impressed with Chapman, so I don’t believe the Yankees are uninterested, but there is a telling lack of buzz here. Weird.
Michelle might be spooked by some of the groupies.
Pat M, it’s looking good for us…not so much for mr. costanza’s over.
Pat-
I was also wondering about how they would fill out any final spots in the BP ?
Melancon
Albaladejo
?
etc.
Any thoughts on that ?
I really don’t care about Michelle ” we have 3 offers” Damon…..
Nick in SF
January 5th, 2010 at 11:29 pm
Michelle might be spooked by some of the groupies.
Pat M, it’s looking good for us…not so much for mr. costanza’s over.
***************
You are so right. I forgot about the city mandate that Atlanta be a groupie-free city
Anyway, I have one more grueling day of inventory in a giant warehouse ahead of me tomorrow. Good night Mr. Nick!
Yankee Trader
January 5th, 2010 at 11:13 pm
GB7-
Yankees will trade Boone Logan and Edwar Ramirez to Atlanta for outfielder Melky Cabrera,
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Now why would the Yankees give up two relief pitchers who will allow more homers in half a season than Melky would hit in a year!!!!!
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Because I’m tired of Yankrr Stadium being known as a homer haven. I’d like to see some of those homers spread around to other parks. I can’t see being stingy.
Yankrr Stadium being
And Yankee Stadium, too.
Goodnight, Erica. Maybe no news will continue to be good news.
GB-
I dont think they need to trade Edwar.
Just have him turn sideways.
Melancon ONLY if he earns it. Albaladejo? I used to like him – now ? Not so much – he stinks.
I’m not a fan of the pen :
Mo
Joba/Hughes (but either one had better be used as a long man)
Marte * there are still ? about him, but if he’s healthy, he should be good.
Robertson – still some ?, esp. about his health
Gaudin – useful piece – I like him.
Aceves – I’m down on him.
This is not a great pen and we need a couple of more arms.
Nick in SF
January 5th, 2010 at 11:24 pm
It could hinge on how much Michelle likes Buckhead.
I suspect there are a lot of places in Atlanta that Johnny would like.
————————————————————
Cheetah’s, Oasis, Blaze and Tiffany’s come to mind.
betsy-
I like:
Mo
Marte
Joba/Phil
D-Rob
Gaudin
Aceves
But dont we need another guy to back up marte on the lefties ?
MTU, yes – and I seriously doubt Boone whatever his name is is going to cut it.
Boone Logan – sorry.
Betsy-
how about De La Rosa, or Dunn ?
Betsy, I share your reservations about the pen…It will be very good with Joba or Hughes, Robertson ( who has to prove it for the entire season ), Marte ( ? ), Gaudin, Aceves are more in the vein of a starter…..Melachon will get a very long look in March…No doubt, there’s questions as always for bullpens….However I do feel great about innings 7 thru 9, it’s the best in baseball…………..IOWA HAWKEYES
I thought you’d wided up on Aceves Betsy? He had a bad month July, improved to respectable in August and was very good in Sept.
Is there any reason you’re still down on him besides mistaken impression?
matt kemp is dating rihanna?
damn….
MTU
January 5th, 2010 at 11:44 pm
Betsy-
how about De La Rosa, or Dunn ?
————————————————————
Dunn was traded.
MTU, Dunn (who I didn’t like anyway given his poor control) went to Atlanta in the JV trade. De La Rosa? I don’t know much about him, but I guess he’s an arm we can call up if we’re desperate. I think the Yankees really want Melancon to have a good ST because he’d be an intriguing addition to the pen.
Pat M, I really hope that the loser of the Phil/Joba competition (still hate that) does not become a short man. If the loser does not go to AAA, IMO it is vital that they become a long man. They must get their innings in and, at least with Phil, he must use all his pitches against big leaguers (not just in side sessions). ST is going to be very interesting this year……
I also think our rotation has a chance to be pretty darn good.
Stuckey, all I know is that Aceves was very inconsistent in the 2nd half. He had some good games later in the year, but they were sprinkled in with some not-so-good games; he was not at all the same pitcher he was in the first half. I’m not sure if his body can take the strain of relieving or if the league caught up with him.
GB-
what would think about WDLR as a LOOGY ?
Nick-PatM.
Great pick with IA…
Glad it is early in the week!
-dennis
MTU…What is a WDLR ( something long relief ) LOOGY ( something short relief ) ???? ………Iowa comes up big for me, I can now pay back my 2 day loan from my basketball account…..
GreenBeret7
January 5th, 2010 at 11:08 pm
Yankees will trade Boone Logan and Edwar Ramirez to Atlanta for outfielder Melky Cabrera,
———————————————————-
LOL Sarge!
Well it seems I’ve missed much today.
I guess we can stop the Matt Holliday talk, right?
So much for sources, fathers, teams bidding against themselves, and all the other assorted comments. 7/120? Sheesh! Thank God Cashman had sense.
I’m not sure why the Yankees never gave Duncan a decent shot. I bet he’ll be an excellent right handed part of a platoon (something the Yankees could really use, by the way) and will be a very positive influence in the clubhouse. I’d take him over Hoffman in a heartbeat, that’s for sure.
Pat-
WDLR = Wilkins De La Rosa
LOOGY= lefty-only relief specialist
WDLR might be a good lefty specialist to back up Marte ?
Betsy, over his last 10 appearances of the year, from August through October, he threw 18.1 innings, to the tune of 13h, 4w, 0HR, 15K and 4ER.
That’s called finishing strong and evidence his body didn’t break down.
The guy sports a 3.24 ERA as a major leaguer. You can’t spot the guy a couple of bad outings? Really?
Betsy
“Rich, as to your question about Mauer, I wouldn’t do it just to block the Sox from getting him – if the Yankees want him and he’s a FA, then they should try and sign him for that reason. However you had specifically made the comment that the Yankees need to have payroll flexibility to block the Sox from making moves. The Yankees need to concentrate on their own needs, not trying to checkmate the Sox (unless, like Tex, it’s a player they want and need).”
Block may be too strong a word. I’ll use the word complicate instead.
For example, even if they somehow decided not to pursue Mauer (which is hard to imagine), they need to drive up the price. Similarly, they need to do that with Beckett.
I’m not sure they can play that role in the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes, but if they can, they should.
It’s good business to drive up the RS’ cost of doing business.
California dreamin :
Johnny comes marchin home – 1 year
The Yankees like Chapman enough to get him
Chien-Ming Wang returns on a minor league deal
All low probability I know.
Nite All.
Chapman shouldn’t be a low probability.
I really don’t care about Damon one way or the other.
Nothing’s wrong with Aceves. The guy was 10-1 with a 3.54 ERA. Not 2-1, not 4-1, not 7-1, but 10-1 with a save to boot.
I wonder if Cashman would consider Nomar for infield utility? He’s just about the cost of Hairston, Jr., but a much better hitter. Hairston has more versitility though, and is much faster.
MTU, not a bad dream.
“I really don’t care about Damon one way or the other.”
The Yankees right now look to be the best team in baseball but they project to only be a couple of games better than the Sox.
Now there is significantly more variance over the Sox projected record due to the associated measurement error for defense (which is not accounted for in models). Nonetheless, the projected gap is not large.
Damon would add 1.5 wins or so. That would be a very nice pick up given that the yankees are projected to be only 2 games or so better than the Sox.
If it’s not Damon, LF should be upgraded – the opportunity cost of not doing so given the market and cost of available talent is relatively high.
CB -
What available talent do you see out there besides Damon that would provide that kind of upgrade? Just curious…
CB January 5th, 2010 at 9:59 pm
The Kotchman trade as an individual move makes sense for the M’s but given the context of their team it’s not an optimal one.
The M’s have gotten better but they also have narrowed the ways in which they can win. They were a weak hitting team last year and now they really have limited power. Adam LaRoche would have helped them diversify their skill set.
Their top 2 is the best in baseball, but their rotation afterwards isn’t great. Winning with so much emphasis on defense could be a challenge without strong pitching 1-5.
In this sense, the Marrow trade is particularly odd.
Actually, it’s not really odd if you are Jack Z (the talent evaluator) who sees Brandon Morrow as a reliever, so Jack Z (the GM) made the deal for “the other Brandon” to strengthen the bullpen AND managed to get another prospect thrown in for good measure.
League has rather startling splits of opponents batting line for grass (.239/.307/.366/.673) vs. turf (.273/.354/.414/.768). Maybe “both Jacks” think Brandon League would greatly benefit from his home field being comprised of that which grows and has to be mowed
Better yet, maybe both Brandons will benefit from the change of scenery in general, thrive and be successful in whatever role they take on with their respective new teams. As an added benefit, apparently, Brandon L has worked with Rick Adair previously…
As one who values defense more than most, I’m tickled “rosy” about how my team is shaping up (my motto: Chicks dig the long ball, but REAL women love leather
That said, even I have to admit – JZ needs to pull some power outta somewhere….
“Actually, it’s not really odd if you are Jack Z (the talent evaluator) who sees Brandon Morrow as a reliever, so Jack Z (the GM) made the deal for “the other Brandon” to strengthen the bullpen AND managed to get another prospect thrown in for good measure.”
Tell that to Dave Cameron. He panned the trade.
Marrow is a much more valuable pitcher than League. We’ve seen a lot of Brandon League in the AL East. I’ve followed Brandon Marrow since he was drafted.
That was a puzzling trade. A number of people have gone as far as to suggest the Marrow – League trade was probably a completion of the Halladay trade because it seemed so one sided and people didn’t believe that Jack Z would make such a stilted deal.
rodg12,
If Nady is healthy (big if) I think he’d be a very good fit and would provide a similar upgrade.
You could take a flier on Ryan Church. It wouldn’t cost much and if he’s recovered from his concussion syndrome (big if) then he could be that kind of upgrade as well. And if he’s not doing well you would be back to baseline with Gardner/ Hoffman.
Compass Rosy,
If the Kotchman trade never existed and the season starts tomorrow, would Mike Carp might had been the starting 1B?
CB,
Didn’t Willie Randolph ran him out to the field the day after he got a concussion, and Omar refused to put him on the DL?
Ed,
Yeah the Mets handled that situation deplorably. Willie played him and Omar wouldn’t put him on the DL for quite some time. They all have different stories on what exactly happened.
The issue with Church outside of the concussions and down season is that he’s lefty and they could use a right handed hitter if possible.
And from what I’ve read, Carp was the leading guy to play 1b amongst available options for Seattle though it seemed nearly definite they would go outside of the organization for 1b.
CB;
Thanks for the input. It was Church’s 3rd concussion which made Omar finally put him on the DL, correct?
CB:
Thanks for the reply. I could see Nady being a great add if, like you said, he’s healthy. Church I have a harder time seeing because he’s a lefty. Damon presents the same problem but since he’s more of a known quantity I’d be happier about it.
Mike Leach to Mets’ medical staff???
I cannot say that i hope the Yankees sign Chapman. He may be a once in a lifetime left-handed arm, but if he’s just a reliever he’s not worth it.
He hasn’t shown even a semblance of control at any point in his lifetime. Why should we spend 20+ million just for a chance to see if he can do anything?
I don’t see the Yankees signing him. They have shown a change in philosophy to signing known, stable commodities – Mark Teixeira/CC Sabathia. The additions of Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez have affirmed that same philosophy. The Red Sox made a mistake signing Dice-K and the Yankees made an even bigger on in signing Kei Igawa. There is no substitute for ML hitting and it can’t be simulated anywhere.
Why risk 20+ million now when you can get a near guarantee in production by spending that over a number of draft picks or a solid free agent?
Ed – campaigning for Willingham
January 6th, 2010 at 1:03 am
Compass Rosy,
If the Kotchman trade never existed and the season starts tomorrow, would Mike Carp might had been the starting 1B?
Definitely one possibility. Branyan wanted a multi-year deal, but the M’s are reluctant due to his back issues (course, the were worried about Randy’s back too – and that was a bit of a mis-calculation
Anyway, the rumors have been all over the board … from signing LaRoche, to trading for AGon to giving Carp a shot. Some think there’s still a chance the M’s will sign Russell to the one year deal with an option that they originally offered him (as he hasn’t received any offers yet – and will supposedly give the M’s an opportunity to match). Should be interesting…
“The Yankees right now look to be the best team in baseball but they project to only be a couple of games better than the Sox.
Now there is significantly more variance over the Sox projected record due to the associated measurement error for defense (which is not accounted for in models). Nonetheless, the projected gap is not large.
Damon would add 1.5 wins or so. That would be a very nice pick up given that the yankees are projected to be only 2 games or so better than the Sox.
If it’s not Damon, LF should be upgraded – the opportunity cost of not doing so given the market and cost of available talent is relatively high.”
From a baseball perspective, Damon would fit a need, but I share Cash’s reservations about a the advisability of bringing a player back to a team subsequent to receiving a significant paycut. Granted, Pettitte was able to accept it, but Damon, at least according to reports, seems to be at lot more remuneration-conscious than Andy, and at this point, Damon would have to be willing to chow down on a heaping helping crow.
If he does come back, the deal cannot be for more than a one year under any circumstances.
Can’t believe I can’t make it thru the filters. Anyhoo, I felt that Aceves was good last year – he won 10 games caddying Joba and I felt comfortable with him on the mound.
Neither Joba or Phil need to be in the pen this year. Shouldn’t complain about the quality of the bullpen if posters don’t want their favored pitchers pitching out of there.
No doubt the Red Sox are right to put the superior fielder in center. I hope the Yanks will do the same, that is, put Gardner in CF.
Can’t believe I can’t make it thru the filters.
Well at least I’m not the only one….
I’ve tried to reply to CB twice (regarding Morrow) and nothing shows
I’m not buying that The BoSox closed the gap by that much of a margin over the course of the winter……Lackey maybe a 2 game upgrade over Vazquez, but Cameron is not Jason Bay, nor is he Curtis Granderson…..The loss of Matsui / Damon could be a slight factor, however not enough to warranted the Sox to be just a 2 games projected behind The Yanks…
The filters know better than to argue with CB
Nick in SF…..I wonder what the over / under lines are ???? They always seem to be quite accurate for the most part…..As you very well lnow, it’s hard to beat the house
Over/under lines on what? The 2010 season? Too early for that. How could they possibly set fair lines without knowing the destination of Jose Molina?
Nick in SF…I wonder if they’ll have the Yanks at 96 and Boston 94
Pat M. January 6th, 2010 at 2:42 am
I’m not buying that The BoSox closed the gap by that much of a margin over the course of the winter……Lackey maybe a 2 game upgrade over Vazquez, but Cameron is not Jason Bay, nor is he Curtis Granderson…..The loss of Matsui / Damon could be a slight factor, however not enough to warranted the Sox to be just a 2 games projected behind The Yanks…
I think the Redsox have closed the gap and the loss of Damon/Melky/Matsui is more than a slight factor. Lackey will be more than +2 over Vazquez and getting Beltre is another big plus for the Sox. I don’t like the Sox but I would have to say that the off season has helped them significantly.
“They should be, since Lowell is still with the team. Am I correct that whatever salary they pay toward Lowell, when and if he’s traded, will be part of the 2010 projections for luxury tax over the 170 million threshold??”
You are correct. Once the Beltre thing and the deal with the Mariners is official, they’ll be around $173M.
I’m not sure Lackey is a +2 over Vazquez in reality. I understand the projection but I think there’s a good chance Vazquez pitches just as well or better than Lackey in 2010 and is much less an injury risk..
“I think the Redsox have closed the gap and the loss of Damon/Melky/Matsui is more than a slight factor. Lackey will be more than +2 over Vazquez and getting Beltre is another big plus for the Sox. I don’t like the Sox but I would have to say that the off season has helped them significantly.”
Brian Cashman disagrees which is why he made the decision on Damon/Melky/Matsui. Lackey isn’t going to win 20 games so I have hard time believing he’s a more than +2 over Vazquez. Unless, Beltre reverts back to his 2004 self, I’m not worry about him and consider him far less than a big plus for the Sox.
Some Yankee fans need to stop drinking the kool-aid some of the MSM is saying about the Red Sox moves because its their hope that the Red Sox have closed the gap.
CB, I just don’t see how the Sox have made up THAT much ground on the Yankees. The Yankees were a much better team last year and they’ve improved this year. The Sox have improved as well, but not THAT much.
Then again, I’m not big into computer analysis (actually, not at all)……
Pat M, I agree completely…….
As to Nady, no thanks. It’s pretty sad when a position player needs two TJ surgeries – for me, Nady will never be healthy. Who’s to say he won’t need a 3rd TJ surgery? He’s also not that great……..granted, there aren’t many options out there.
What does MSM stand for? Thanks!
“Then again, I’m not big into computer analysis (actually, not at all)……”
Don’t worry, they still have to actually play the games in 2010 despite what some computer projection says about any players.
“As to Nady, no thanks. It’s pretty sad when a position player needs two TJ surgeries – for me, Nady will never be healthy. Who’s to say he won’t need a 3rd TJ surgery? He’s also not that great……..granted, there aren’t many options out there.”
To be fair, Nady’s first TJ surgery was eight years ago.
“What does MSM stand for? Thanks!”
Main Stream Media!
“Unless, Beltre reverts back to his 2004 self, I’m not worry about him and consider him far less than a big plus for the Sox.”
-10 for saying “reverts back”
No way Beltre ever sees 2004 again. That was a Brady Anderson, once in a lifetime season. But he is not a useless offensive player. In his three years prior to last year’s injury riddled season, he did average a bit better than .270 with 25 homers and 88 RBI per season while playing half his games in a park that killed him (his road average was .288 and he averaged 51 rbi on the road per season). He’s not a big strikeout guy (1 per 6 AB’s) and hits more balls in the air than on the ground. Fenway can be awfully kind to that type of hitter. Certainly far kinder than Safeco. Don’t think anyone would be shocked if he went .275, 25-30 homers, 90 RBI, do you? That’s far from elite 3B numbers, but it’s not a black hole in the lineup either.
“CB, I just don’t see how the Sox have made up THAT much ground on the Yankees. The Yankees were a much better team last year and they’ve improved this year. The Sox have improved as well, but not THAT much.”
Lot of variables, but I don’t see how anyone could look at both teams and not see at least a 5 game gap (in the Yankees favor) between the two.
So does that mean that everyone will stop talking about Holliday on the Yankees?!
“Nick in SF…I wonder if they’ll have the Yanks at 96 and Boston 94″
I think they have the Yankees higher than that. Public loves the favorite. Yankees are the favorite. Means the oddmakers and stick them with a bad number (say 99.5, maybe higher) and still draw a lot of OVER action.
Craw, thanks – I like mediots better, lol.l
Good point about Nady, but still – it’s unusual for a position player to need TJ surgery. Two? The Yankee are being somewhat careful with $$, so I don’t see them taking a risk with Nady.
I respect the Sox and think they will be a very good team. They have very good pitching and fantastic defense – it’s not a matter of me underrating them as it is me having confidence in the Yankees.
Frank, I’d have to agree with you that the Sawx haven’t closed the gap. First of all, the Sawx have added older players this off season, I’d like to see the average age of their players now. Secondly, most of the players added are low OBP guys, so they will not be putting pressure on pitching staffs like the Yankees would. I agree that they will hit HRs in Fenway, but they already played well there…it’s the road where they had trouble. Thirdly, they have ignored their bullpen this off season. Paps numbers have been trending downward and I don’t see a replacement for him (yet). As a last point I offer this, the Sawx lost 11 games in the standings to the Yankees over the second half of the season…that included having Martinez and with Ortiz having a good second half.
*Means the oddmakers CAN stick them with a bad number….
For those that have concerns about Boston’s two major purchases this off-season. Take a peak at Beltre’s and Lackey’s numbers at Fenway.
Holliday, who turns 30 on Jan. 15, batted .313 overall with 24 homers and 109 RBIs, his fifth .300 season and third 100-RBI year.
“Obviously, with Albert Pujols on the team you have a great opportunity to have a great team,” Holliday told ESPN. “Albert is the best player in the history of baseball in my mind. Hopefully between the two of us we can help do our part to win a World Series.”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....z0bq8Iji6L
Sorry Matt, your mind is wrong, the best player in the history of baseball is one George Herman “Babe” Ruth. Everyone else is second.
GB7
How are you doing? Hope you are continuing to improve…don’t let your brother force you to have any more smokes.
I am glad to see the sox lose Bay and probably Lowell, 2 notorious Yankee killers.
“For those that have concerns about Boston’s two major purchases this off-season. Take a peak at Beltre’s and Lackey’s numbers at Fenway.”
Lackey is downright hideous at Fenway. Boston’s run ended with the Manny trade, and Ortiz declining. Those two steroid poster buys are what brought the Yankees down. Now that those two are fading into the past ,the Yankees are on top again and will be for a long time. The Sox are assembling their best version of their late 90′s ballclub. I want them to be good enough to reach the ALCS again, so that we can give them the proper spanking they have coming to them. That was my only regret with this post season, a humiliating defeat of Boston to knock them out of the playoffs.
at least we got to see a humiliating defeat of the Halos
Neither the Lackey or Beltre signings really worry me..Lackey is a good pitcher but with his diminished velocity and injury risks I think the risk is very high for a deal that long. Honestly I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have Vazquez for 2010 than Lackey for 2010. Beltre was a good addition for them because theu will need his glove at 3rd with Scutaro at SS. If they had kept Lowell and scooter over there the left side defense would have been horrid. The Red sox are better than they were last year but I think signing Holliday and Belte instead of Lackey, Cameron, and Beltre would have addressed their needs more..
Part of the problem with computer projections is that fans who live and die by them leave out the word, “projections”.
They aren’t necessarily an accurate indicator of anything.
Last year, after the Smoltz, Saito, Penny and Baldelli acquisitions, these same projections, as well as the MSM awarded the 2009 World Series to the Red Sox.
We all know how that turned out.
Adrian Beltre hasn’t hit for years. He has big holes in his swing, isn’t patient at the plate, and isn’t an offensive threat.
Fact is, Mike Lowell, bad hip and all, is a better hitter (especially in the clutch) than Beltre.
Beltre is an elite defender. If Lowell’s hip is 20% better than it was last year, he is near Beltre’s equal as a defender.
Its a marginal increase (at best) for the Red Sox at that position.
More importantly, and something computer projections don’t take into account, is what attitude Beltre will bring to Fenway.
He has a one year deal. If he decides to open up at the plate and aim for the wall, in an attempt to build big numbers to enhance his 2010 free agency, that may work against him.
That’s why you play the games on the field and not on a computer. You never know how things will shake out.
upstate kate
January 6th, 2010 at 8:57 am
GB7
How are you doing? Hope you are continuing to improve…don’t let your brother force you to have any more smokes.
I am glad to see the sox lose Bay and probably Lowell, 2 notorious Yankee killers.
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Morning, Kate. Thank you for the kind words of encouragement. Yes, I had to throw down with my brother for trying to force those cigarettes on my. I had that one slip, but, I’m doing fine right now.
Bay and Lowell definately hurt NYYs in both Fenway and YS. Beltre has about 65 at bats in Fenway and hitting .179 with minimal power. Lackey, numbers are just as ugly there. As much as some people yammer about his success against the Yanks, Lackey has a losing record and an ERA of over 4.50. Beltre’s a .250 hitter with a few homers but not a lot of damage with them.
Lackey (17)+ Cameron (10) + beltre (9) = 36 million
Holliday (17) + Beltre (9) = 26 million.
I don’t think they needed Lackey as much as they need a cleanup hitter. Signing Holliday instead of Lackey would have meant they don’t need Cameron. They would still have 10 million left to use elsewhere..is my math wrong here? I think the Boy wonder picked the wrong 17 million dollar player to invest in for what they need.
7 years for Holliday is ridiculous – at any price. But at 120 mil, it’s insane.
Blake-
I dont think the Sox wanted the long-term commitment that MH required any more than we did.
I’m certainly glad the Yankees didn’t go 7/120 for Holliday because their need for him just isn’t that high. However from the Red sox perspective which contract is more insane, 7/120 for Holliday or 5/85 for a pitcher with a bum elbow.
upstate kate,
True, we have that to hang our hats on. But I still want Boston to pay for the next century.
7 years for 120 Mill, is no Holliday.
“Take a peak at Beltre’s and Lackey’s numbers at Fenway.”
Kind of meaningless due to sample size, no?
If the Yankees didn’t build the new stadium, do you think they would have steered clear of Sabathia because of his 8.41 Yankee Stadium II ERA? Does his 6.35 ERA at Network Associate’s over 9 starts mean he can’t pitch for Oakland?
Guess Teixeira was a bad idea for Boston when they were looking at him because his 100+ AB’s at Fenway were weak, right?
MTU, I understand that but if I’m the Sox I would be more comfortable committing 7 years to Holliday than I would 5 to Lackey. Chances are holliday will still be able to hit at the end of that contract and LF at fenway isn’t exactly hard to cover out there. Them taking that risk with Lackey to add to a strength would have been equivalent of us taking that risk with Holliday to add to a strength..
Bill D
January 6th, 2010 at 9:21 am
“Take a peak at Beltre’s and Lackey’s numbers at Fenway.”
Kind of meaningless due to sample size, no?
If the Yankees didn’t build the new stadium, do you think they would have steered clear of Sabathia because of his 8.41 Yankee Stadium II ERA? Does his 6.35 ERA at Network Associate’s over 9 starts mean he can’t pitch for Oakland?
Guess Teixeira was a bad idea for Boston when they were looking at him because his 100+ AB’s at Fenway were weak, right?
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Are you denying that those numbers are ugly? He’s got some big numbers to replace with Lowell. In a full season, he barely averages what Lowell produced in 120 games last year, and that was hitting with Suzuki and Lopez getting on base.
As horrid has 7/120 for Holliday sounds, it is a lot better than 5/85 for Lackey. I’m no Beckette fan, but he’s the guy the Sox should be paying for the next 5-6 years.
I truely don’t understand the Red Sox moves this year.
Why not just play Lowell at 1st and Youk at 3rd if they don’t think Lowell can handle 3rd any longer. Now they are paying Beltre to man 3rd and will be paying Lowell to play on another team?
Cameron is not a bad signing if they knew they had no shot at Bay and didn’t want 7 years of Holliday.
I like the moves the Yankees made this off season even though I’m sad to see Sui leave.
The Yankees only need a RH power guy to platoon in LF and the shopping can be done for the most part.
“Are you denying that those numbers are ugly?”
No. I’m denying they are meaningful.