On my way to Queens
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 05, 2010 
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I’m about to walk out the door and make my way to Citi Field for the Mets introduction of Jason Bay. I’m writing a story about it for tomorrow’s newspaper, but as far as the Yankees and the blog are concerned, there’s not much connection.
Bay is being introduced as a Met, Adrian Beltre is the Red Sox new third baseman, and Matt Holliday seems closer than ever to a deal with the Cardinals. Those are three pretty big names in this free agent market, but none seemed particularly likely for the Yankees. Brian Cashman has said for weeks that he wouldn’t go after another “big piece” this winter, and Beltre plays the same position as a guy named Alex.
What these signings might do for the Yankees is loosen the rest of the free agent market, setting the stage for other pieces to come off the board. At this point — assuming the Holliday rumors are true — Johnny Damon is probably the top position player available.
Is everyone growing restless waiting for something new to happen?
I was watching a 1996 WS game 6 Yankee Classic the other day and the announcers said that Torre turned down the Yankee GM job a week before he was offered the Manager job……wow that would have really changed things. I can’t believe I didn’t remember that.
If Damon is the top remaining free agent, it’d be smart to wait a while to get back in discussion. His status will drive his price up for a few weeks until spring training approaches.
I really want to give Gardner or Hoffmann a crack in LF, they both provide unique talents to our offense and defense. Forget about Damon, unless he’s willing to return for 1 year $6 million.
Lets use that $3-4 million slot for Aroldis Chapman on a 5-6 year deal, throw him in Single-A, and replenish the farm a little after dealing Arodys Vizcaino.
Did you draw the short straw having to go to Queens?
“Is everyone growing restless waiting for something new to happen?”
Yes, and how! I’m ready for spring training, especially given how cold and snowy it is here at the moment (it always feels a little warmer watching those games from Florida).
Thanks to Jweav for recalling the Torre as GM possibility from way back. That would have been a total disaster. Cashman has been good, but I still credit Stick Michael with getting this organization back on track.
Chad, do you normally cover Met press conferences? Don’t the Mets have a beat writer? I’m not asking because it bothers me in any way, I’m just curious.
Curious also describes my feelings about the LF situation. I feel strongly that we should not go into the season with Gardner in LF, but I don’t see too many other options. When Cashman chose to shore up the pitching staff by adding Vasquez instead of going with LF, he had to know that he wasn’t getting Holliday. That means he know the LF situation would be tenuous. I’m a huge Cash fan and he’s done a great job this offseason, but he has a big whole to fill and he has yet to fill it.
We really ought to quit counting our chickens before they hatch. Hoffman was left unprotected by the Dodgers for a reason – he’s probably not very good. If he has a terrible spring, he’s going back to LA and if he doesn’t stick all year, he’s back in LA. Either way, he’s probably not with the NYY Yankees.
Maybe another LF is gonna drop into Cash’s lap before ST.
Jason Bay is absolutely “Yankee-related” news. He’ll have far fewer ABs against Yankee pitching now. Considering how well he hit Yankee pitching, his signing with the Mets is great news for the Yankees.
“A player’s production has value attached to it. Nick swisher produces more than he is paid for example which makes it a good contract. Jason Giambi produced below what he was paid, therefore bad contract. There is no real way to quantify that but you know by watching them play whether they are worth the money or not. All I’m saying is that I think Holliday has a good chance to produce more than he’s paid in that deal, making it a good contract. I am beggining to think that all you want to do is argue.”
blake, you’re free to assume that, but in consecutive sentences you said there is “no real way” to quantify player contracts but then attempted to do it anyway.
I’m merely pointing this out. I think it’s perfectly fair to point out that there is no real way to do what you’re doing, particularly since you’re the one pointing it out.
Is everyone growing restless waiting for something new to happen?
****************
Yes!!
A lot has already happened.
Grandy, NJ, Vasquez.
more to come ?
Another LF (hope so)
Bench
JMTC
I could care less if they sign anyone else. This core team is ready to repeat.
I almost forgot:
Chapstick
Wang
Nope, Chad, I’m not particularly restless waiting for something new to happen. In fact, if the season started today, I’d be very comfortable with the Yankee roster as it currently stands.
I don’t quite get all the hysterics over left field. They have enough hitting, so the only thing they need out there is defense, and I’d trust Gardner to do that to start the season. Don’t get me wrong, Cashman should always make an improvement given the opportunity and funding, but we don’t need a highly paid all star at every single position.
Dit-
Not an allstar but Gardy/hoff represent some real risk in LF.
No one wants to giveaway outs even out of the 9 hole.
What if Posada goes down ?
What if NJ gets hurt again ?
What if A-Rod’s hip acts up unexpectedly ?
And so forth.
More Offensive insurance would be good IMO.
Give us an upgrade over Gardener but not a superstar.
MTU, I see what you’re saying and can agree as well. There’s certainly nothing wrong with offensive insurance.
But I’m just saying I have no problem starting the season with Gardner starting in left. Just give him a chance to start the season and if he’s tanking by June, Cashman can start up the search before the deadline for an upgrade. Hey, you never know. Give the kid a longer opportunity than what he’s had in the past now that Melky’s gone, and he just might do it.
“Not an allstar but Gardy/hoff represent some real risk in LF.
Not in MLB terms it’s not.
“No one wants to giveaway outs even out of the 9 hole.”
Of course they don’t, but Gardner will give away less outs than most #9 hitters in the game. Why is this fact so hard to comprehend?
“What if Posada goes down ?
What if NJ gets hurt again ?”
Injuries are a universal concern for ALL teams. The point is, the Yankees are better prepared to deal with it, INCLUDING their production from their #9 hitter.
“More Offensive insurance would be good IMO.”
Of course it is. Again, that’s a universal concept that applies to all 30 teams. It has no particularly relevance to LF for the New York Yankees.
“Give us an upgrade over Gardener but not a superstar.”
Who?
Dit-
I understand what you are saying.
Gardener is an underdog and lot’s of people want to root for the underdog.
I hope he can do it but at the same time I doubt it because he does not appear to hat the “bat control” he needs to maximize his offensive skill set.
So far he hasn’t impersonated enough of Mickey Rivers to suit me.
Maybe he will ???
I would rather see a 1 year damon, or even a Nady if healthy.
There’s got to be someone out there who can either platoon with GGBG, or represent a modest upgrade.
If not i guess we’ll just have to see what GGBG really has, and do as you say at halftime if needed.
Why does everyone think so strongly that we have “a huge gap in LF”. Yea Gardner isn’t the greatest player but give the kid a chance. He’s fast, is great defensively. If he can get on base just a few times and swipe some bags then anything else you get out of him is a bonus. Think Melky/Gardner last year, they weren’t great but had their respective moments.
If they sign one more big free agent I think my love for this team will falter a little, it’s much harder to root for a team of superstars than it is for a good mix. Keep Gardy in LF for some balance!
Yeah, I think the Yankees are stocked as it is. I’m more than comfortable going into battle with our team as it is presently constituted. If the biggest issue we’re arguing is whether we need to upgrade our #9 hitter and whether our young stud pitchers should start or relieve because there isnt enough room in the rotation, you know we’re good. That, and the Red Sox aren’t much better. Their rotation wasn’t that dominant last year, and now with Lackey, it might be up to the levels they excepted. We have more than enough to compete and win.
Stuckey-
JD for example.
It’s been a relatively humdrum off-season. All the interesting things happened at the beginning.
It’s nothing compared to the drama of last year, and probably nothing to compare to the drama of next year.
Cashman has done well, which is all that really matters I guess.
Still, be nice to see something exciting happen!
Stuckey, I don’t need a number value to know that Giambis contract was a bad one. Not everything in baseball can be quantified no matter how hard statheads try. I was merely saying that I think Hollidays play over the next 6 years will warrant that contract. Its an opinion that I don’t think is too difficult to understand. I think you know your baseball and that you make some good points but not every statement needs to turn into a debate. Sometimes people just don’t agree. Its clear that you don’t get the point I’m trying to make so let’s just drop it and move on.
Will the MLB Network buy whitening strips for Gammons ?
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....8;c_id=mlb
People:
Not everybody has to agree about GGBG.
It’s just opinion and dialogue.
Not a cosmic battle.
peace.
Damon – one year deal to the Yanks? What are Damon’s other possible destinations?
Reading the comments in the last thread made me think the Sox have created an interesting clubhouse dynamic this year which may work better if more of their players were kids competing for playing time but might be difficult because of the veterans involved.
Tek vs. V-Mart.
Youk vs. V. Mart vs. Kotchman
Lowell vs Beltre
Ortiz vs. Lowell vs. V. Mart
and to a lesser extent, Lowrie vs. Scutaro because of age but not because of circumstance.
Veterans and fan favorites who know the organization no longer wants them, many playing last years of contracts, losing starting jobs and likely having to bite their tongues and put on happy faces not for a day or a week but for months.
Goo luck with that Tito!
Pat-
Didn’t Epstein saying something like it was a bridge to nowhere year ?
“I was merely saying that I think Hollidays play over the next 6 years will warrant that contract.”
blake, and all I’ve been saying all this time is even that unquantified opinion does not represent a compelling reason to sign him. An unnecessary expense is still an unnecessary expense, regardless of the rate of said expense.
And I’m genuinely just trying to make a point. If you’d like to exercise the option of boiling everything down to mere individual opinions rather than exchange in search of a truth, just regard my points as expression of mine.
I don’t grow restless for something to happen when I look at an absolutely loaded Yankee team.
Not only loaded but, they also maintained payroll flexibility if they need to add more parts.
I don’t look at all these Red Sox moves (Scutaro, Lackey, Cameron and Beltre) as earth shattering.
Last year at this time, panic set in with the kiddies on this blog reading Gammons and Sherman’s glowing grades for the Sox signing Smoltz, Saito, Penny and Baldelli.
None of those moves panned out.
This year, Theo broke his “rule” and offered a pitcher (Lackey) a 5 year contract. That means, Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett aren’t signing smaller deals with the Sox next year. Its a minimum of 5 years.
He’s weakened his team significantly offensively, while improving it defensively, except at SS. Alex Gonzalez is a MUCH better defensive SS than Marco Scutaro. Enough to make up 8+ games in the standings with the Yankees? Unlikely, unless the Yankees get hit with the injury bug.
He has given the Sox payroll flexibility for next off-season.
All that means though is they will have to spend huge money on free agents to replenish the roster.
As we saw from 2001-2008, that’s not exactly a great way to go.
Curtis Granderson and Javy Vasquez are two great additions to the team.
LF will get filled eventually. I don’t see Gardner as the Opening Day LF. I also wouldn’t pencil in a Rule 5 guy as a member of the 25 man roster just yet.
All in all, its been a very good off-season for the Yankees.
I like the depth of the Yankee starting rotation after the No. 4 starter.
In the case of Boston, after Beckett, Lester, and Lackey, it gets questionable with Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield with absolutely nobody at AAA or AA levels considered major league ready. If somebody gets hurt, it’s a roll of the dice.
I’m ready for them to start doing something baseball-y. Long toss, bullpens, BP, PFP or anything.
They have a solid core and Cashman will make adjustments throughout the season just like he and most teams do every year.
Look at the 25 men the Yankees broke camp with last year and the ALDS roster. Many changes.
If he can get on base? That’s a big IF.
Stuckey, IMO, Gardner gives away more outs than normal – he’s a terrible hitter. What’s so hard to understand about that?
Erin
January 5th, 2010 at 9:28 am
Is everyone growing restless waiting for something new to happen?
****************
Yes!!
******************
I should amend my “yes” by saying that I’m more excited for spring training to start than anything.
Only Yankee fans would be upset if their team signed FA to help. If they had signed Holliday, it would have been because they saw a need and felt he was the best way to fill that need. There is nothing wrong with that…Yankee fans are being overly influenced by mediots and Yankee haters who try to make us feel guilty for spending $$$.
MTU,
NO ONE has to agree about Brett Gardner’s skills. But there should be some plainly evident truths we all can AGREE on.
Johnny Damon would be an offensive upgrade over Gardner. Despite my misgivings about how necessary that is for these Yankees and Damon’s defensive drawbacks, he would make the Yankees a BETTER offensive team. To argue this would be futile and to suggest its somehow merely a matter of opinion obtuse.
On the other hand, you (and others) should be able to agree Garnder’s 2009 production is replicated would represent above average production in terms of what he’ll be asked to do.
That’s NOT a matter of opinion, that’s a statistical certainty.
Not sure why that’s so hard for his detractors to acknowledge, but it seems to be the case.
“As we saw from 2001-2008, that’s not exactly a great way to go.”
But, as we saw in 2009, it can win you a title.
How can anybody make an evaluation of Gardner after one year?
Terrible hitter? Not quite. Holes in his swing? Absolutely.
Melky Cabrera spent a chunk of 2008 in AAA because he fell so far down the ladder. He worked his way back and had a solid season last year.
Its going to be interesting to see what adjustments Gardner makes in his second season in the majors.
If he can successfully make them, he will help the team.
He was hitting the ball very well until he broke his thumb. After that, he fell into his bad plate habits again.
If he can break those habits, he can be a productive player. If not, he won’t be much of anything.
Betsy-
I also don’t ever want to see the Yankees become apologists for themselves.
It’s not necessary IMO.
One billion+ dollars later. Even with that, the team was only as good as the 3 starters could carry them in the post-season. It was still shorthanded.
To spend one billion+ dollars over a 9 year period to win ONE title, isn’t an effective use of capital.
The club is much better positioned to win more now because it isn’t solely dependent on free agency to fill its roster.
Turned out to be a very expensive lesson for the Yankees in how to run a team more efficiently.
Stuckey-
OK.
I’ll make you happy.
I agree that GGBG is fast.
That he will be a good defender in LF.
That he can steal bases if he can get on.
That he MIGHT hit 270 or so.
Is that enough to satisfy your quest for the truth ?
It is all about positioning now. Yankees should only entertain Johnny for a year. The Yankees have much more talent to trade than the Sox if Mauer or any other big names become available. The Sox are gearing towards adding some big names next year to create a new core. The Yankees are best suited to keep options open to make it a mess for the Sox. The Sox will need a catcher, third baseman, OFers, potentially pitchers. They will want Martinez or Mauer. They will want to try for A Gone again. They will want to be in on Werth or Crawford. Financial felxability is big for the Yankees to stay involved on some of those quality names and keep the decided advantage over the Sox. Mauer would be such a huge piece for either team as would Carl Crawford. Crawford due to the unique speed and talent. Mauer much more than Martinez because he is a stud defensively as well, more durable and as far as marketability, you don’t get much more class than him. He is the catching version of Tex and would fit Yankees stadium to a tee.
The situation in LF needs to be looked at from a much more broad perspective.
The bottom line is that the lineup is stacked, even with Gardner, Hoffman, or Shelley Duncan in LF.
Sam or Chad posted something a few days ago comparing the LF situation in 2010 with specific previous years LF platoons, playing time splits, etc.
The reason that post wasn’t accurate is that you can’t just look at one position, you need to look at the entire lineup. If Melky was our CF then all of a sudden Brett Gardner doesn’t look like such a great idea for our starting LF. Luckily for us, Granderson in patroling CF. We also have a huge offensive advantage from the catching position as well as every infield spot.
You could argue that we have a top 3 offensive players at C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B. You certainly couldn’t say that about some of the late 90s teams or many of the teams from the last decade.
This team doesn’t need a masher in LF. They don’t even really need a league average guy out there. They just need someone who hits occasionally and plays good defense.
When they added Vasquez they became IMO by far the team to beat in 2010. They are better than last year. The injury risk of both the starting rotation and the everyday lineup is significantly less than it was in 2009. Everyone stayed healthy for the most part in 2009. Cashman knew better than to roll the dice on that happening again.
Most managers want to know by mid January what they have to work with knowing spring training isn’t far away.
Once Holliday is signed and official, lesser players will see the domino effect in getting signed.
Matt, Bucholz is less of a question mark than Joba (who was hardly good last year) and Phil (who has hardly started in 3 years), so we need to be fair here.
Since the Yankees are not a Broadway show, I don’t get the need for constant drama and action. Teams that are always involved in the thick of things during the off-season generally need a lot of fixing – the Yankees are not one of those teams. I’m pretty grateful that we have a GM who, even though we just won a WS, is trying to make his team better.
“Stuckey, IMO, Gardner gives away more outs than normal – he’s a terrible hitter. What’s so hard to understand about that?”
Nothing. But why I keep up with this topic is the seeming lack of understanding or acknowledgment that in a competitive league with a finite # of team, ALL things in baseball are relative.
In the previous thread I demonstrated that last year, Brett Gardner’s production was superior to the worst hitter that got 300 AB’s on EACH of the 7 other play-off teams, PLUS the 2nd and 3rd place AL wildcard teams, PLUS the Tampa Rays.
Each of these team’s carried worse – and in some cases – far worse hitters – than Gardner in their everyday line-ups (NOT including the pitcher for NL teams, btw).
So in fact, he’s league ABOVE league average for what’s he’s expected to produce.
Now here’s the important part – you can STILL believe he’s a terrible hitter but still UNDERSTAND he still represents a competitive ADVANTAGE over most, if not all other teams.
None of his detractors seems willing to able to do that, which frankly I find pretty interesting – when personal opinion won’t allow you to acknowledge objective facts.
At the moment I see our most pressing concern as who protects Arod. That is where not resigning Sui has hurt. As it is I don’t like any of the options. That person must have a decent OB% not be strikeout prone hit for some average with really decent HR potential and should be valued as being clutch. Due to the splits I don’t lik CG in that spot.
Po maybe is good enough but he should be rested 1/3 of the time. DH is not good rest.
Robbi has the stats, actually stat wise he is a no brainer. However in the past he does not respond to being moved up in the order. Is this the year we should try and force that on him. Has he matured enough to work into protecting arod?
Stuckey, that’s fine I will accept that as your opinion..heck you might even be right. I think we have discussed this before but I only think that’s a good deal for the Yankees in a vaccum. If signing Holliday keeps them from signing Cliff lee or possibly Mauer or pujols if available then I’m glad they didn’t. I don’t know their plans or how much money they are willing to spend. I think Holliday would have been a great addition and would have made them better this year and beyond but I also understand staying flexible to possibly pursue greener pastures in the future.
SJ, we’re not talking about players who were considered very good prospects. Gardner was on BA’s list of top ten Yankees a year (or was it 2 years ) ago, but that really spoke to how poorly the farm was rated rather than how good Gardner was. How is he not a bad hitter? If it’s just a matter of him having holes in his swing, then can’t we say that about every mediocre to poor hitter in baseball?
MTU, I’m talking about fans…..I don’t think the Yankees are being are holding back (or feeling sorry for other teams) just because they chose not to go after Matt Holliday as strongly as you would have liked.
“If he can break those habits, he can be a productive player. If not, he won’t be much of anything.”
I like that summary. That does worry me though, there is a significant chance that Gardner “won’t be much of anything.” I’d much rather see him making spot starts and coming off the bench than for the Yankees to rely on him as their primary LF. Viewing Gardner as the only below-average position player doesn’t sound bad, but with a single injury the Yankees would often have a bottom third of the order with Miranda/Cervelli/Gardner (on days Posada rests). Like you’ve said, this Yankee team is really stacked, but simply an average LF would help alleviate a good deal of offensive risk. I think the Yankees will make that move before the season so as to avoid the risk of having a couple months of replacement level production and then needing to surrender minor league talent or absorb a bloated contract to fix the problem.
“Is that enough to satisfy your quest for the truth ?”
“Stuckey, I can acknowledge that despite his warts, Brett Gardner will likely be an above-average to league-leading 9 hole hitter representing a competitive advantage over most to all other ML teams”.
That will work for me..:-)
Has the added benefit of being perfectly accurate.
If people can acknowledge that, they can post all day about their personal DESIRE for an upgrade with no problem from me.
I honestly think the Sox are at a crossroads like the Yankees were last year. Next year’s offseason is critical to their franchsie. Getting CC and Tex were two critical pieces for us. Sox are where the Yankees were after the championships, signing pieces that are players not fitting their mold. Adrian Beltre is what they are left with. A guy that plays during contract years only, isn’t patient, etc. These are the desperate Yankees signings and trades we were used to to stray afloat. The Sox are just being smart not getting involved with longer deals. But they will have serious issues on their team with many major pieces either missing or leaving.
Closer – Paps going to be a free agent. How do you replace him? Or do you pay up to keep him and his shoulder?
Catcher – V Mart
SS – Scutaro is not a long term solution
OF – Drew in RF, Cameron in RF?
1B/3B – Youkilis will play either or but who else
No Ortiz – They have no cleanup hitter or big bat
Beckett may go – means Lester or Lackey may have to be their number one unless they sign Beckett to a big deal or pay up for Lee????
So if I were a Sox fan I would be very concerned where this franchise is headed because their isn’t much left on the farm to count on.
SJ44 is right on….we will NOT see anyone that we have right now on the roster as our opening day LF….BOOK IT !
Ok the left side of our infield makes more money than some entire ML rosters.
There are only a handful of teams in the entire league paying out more in salaries than the Yankees pay their top 4 salaried guys.
The argument is just stale and baseless. If a 200 million payroll isn’t enough for you then maybe you need to find another team to root for. Unfortunately for you, you’ll find a lot more “holes” on any other team than you’ll find on the Yankees. You’ll also find a much smaller payroll, even if you just go across town to Queens.
I’m not anxious for the Yankees to make any more moves. If they do, they do; if they don’t they don’t. But, I am looking forward to the days of actual baseball activity.
“We really ought to quit counting our chickens before they hatch. Hoffman was left unprotected by the Dodgers for a reason – he’s probably not very good.”
That’s the same Dodger management team that left Shane Victorino unprotected TWICE.
Stuckey-
thanks for giving us your permission.
much appreciated.
I’m still restless about his LF spot. I still think we should sign Melvin Mora who could start in LF, backup all OF positions and all IN positions besides 1B and C.
No big piece for us “this winter”. Can’t wait for next winter…..
Stuckey, I understand what you’re saying, but I guess I do not believe in Brett Gardner’s two month hot streak. I think he’s more of the guy who showed up after the thumb injury and prior to his hot streak (as well as the year before). That Brett Gardner doesn’t represent an improvement over other #9 guys. I am not necessarily for having a team of all-stars (though I don’t think there is anything wrong with that); the Yankees do not need an all-star in LF. If I thought Gardner was capable of hitting .260-.270, I’d be happy – but I don’t. I don’t think he’s THAT great in the OF and he definitely lacks instincts on the basepaths despite his speed.
“If signing Holliday keeps them from signing Cliff lee or possibly Mauer or pujols if available then I’m glad they didn’t”
I think that’s a big part of their thinking.
Did everyone have a happy HOLLIDAY?
“It’s been a relatively humdrum off-season. All the interesting things happened at the beginning.
It’s nothing compared to the drama of last year, and probably nothing to compare to the drama of next year.”
Can’t agree with this post at all. Last year CC, AJ, and Tex were all signed before Christmas. If anything, players are signing later this year. Not sure what “drama” you ‘re expecting.
Have fun toiling in the obscurity of Metdom, Jason.
Are Granderson, Johnson, and Vazquez not “big pieces”?
“If I thought Gardner was capable of hitting .260-.270, I’d be happy – but I don’t.”
What would give you any inclination that this isn’t possible? Please just respond with a logical answer.
Phranchise, the Sox are stacked at the lower levels of the minors, more so than we are. They really just need to tread water for a few years – they’re still in excellent position to contend for a long time.
One of my favorite games last year was the May 15th walk off win against the Minnesota Twins. White Lightning that night went 3-3 with an Inside-the-Park home run and a triple that would have been another Inside-the-Park home run if he hadn’t tripped on first (he still came into 3rd standing up). Melky Cabrera hit the walk off that night, but it was Brett Gardner who stole the show. I understand concern that fans have over LF, but I do not think we have seen enough of Brett Gardner to make any determination that he can not be a productive solution given our team. You can see it in his actions, that he gives everything he has towards the Yankees success. He has the attitude that I wish all Yankees players would have.
The Stork
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V
Johnny Damon ?
“Are Granderson, Johnson, and Vazquez not “big pieces”?”
Two of them are.
January is always the worst month of the offseason (at least for me). Spring Training is right around the corner, but it seems so far away. lol
Betsy, I think you’d agree, having a discussion about why you think Brett Gardner isn’t as good as he played would be a futile gesture on both our parts. I can’t disprove a negative of your own personal making so I won’t try.
But as always, I do find it interesting that this theoretical upgrade over Gardner exists as vapor in your mind.
“Phranchise, the Sox are stacked at the lower levels of the minors, more so than we are. They really just need to tread water for a few years – they’re still in excellent position to contend for a long time.”
Thanks for this gem. I needed a good laugh today.
Please explain how the Sox are “stacked” at ANY level in the minor leagues. Then show me with facts and statistics how that team compares to the Yankees minor league team at that same level.
I eagerly await your response.
Stuckey, I like your points on Gardner but you are forming your argument on a relatively small sample size from him. Some players regress when given regular playing time because as scouting reports build their flaws become more exposed. I think that’s the risk with Gardner that worries some of us in addition to lack of outfield depth. It probably won’t make or break the season but its a stretch to predict that he will be above average until he at least has a full season under his belt.
“thanks for giving us your permission.”
Anytime…
Thanks for the continued sociological demonstration that some people just can’t bring themselves to put their opinion up against factual scrutiny.
Last year’s team showed us, once again, that good starting pitching, a strong back-of bullpen, strong defense, and timely hitting from all parts of the lineup (think Tex bombs from the 3-hole or Melky walk-offs from the 9-hole) are the formula for success. In the offseason, we’ve arguably improved our outfield defense, improved starting pitching (Javy)and gave ourselves more flexibility with the back of the bullpen (Joba/Hughes, Robertson, Marte).
Therefore, I feel good. Whether its Gardner or anyone else in LF, as long as they can play good D and get some timely hits, we’ll be just fine.
I think this team is pretty solid, altho I still think Johnny D will return.
This off season is not as bad as last years was…I can watch the WS DVDs or the end of the year shows mlb has produced…it doesn’t seem so bad watching all those early losses to the sox when I know the eventual outcome.
“Please explain how the Sox are “stacked” at ANY level in the minor leagues. Then show me with facts and statistics how that team compares to the Yankees minor league team at that same level.”
I don’t know if the Sox are stacked or not or really how they compare to the Yanks but if you root around in this site it has some pretty good summaries of the Yanks’ prospects and the Red Sox’ prospects:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/
We want ‘the Demon’ We want ‘the Demon’ !! C’mon Cashman get to it !
Stuckey-
Thanks for acting as the sole arbiter of the truth around here.
I’m moving on.
If you want to continue to argue it will be with yourself.
“I honestly think the Sox are at a crossroads like the Yankees were last year. Next year’s offseason is critical to their franchsie.”
The Red Sox future right now is in the hands of the Minnesota Twins.
People keep referring to next year’s free agents as a “class.” But they really aren’t a single “class.”
Next year’s potential free agents break into two parts: Joe Mauer and then everyone else (Pujols option will be picked up…)
No other free agent besides Mauer would have a transformative effect on the Sox. They need him desperately. But whether he will ever hit the market seems less likely than more likely.
Betsy,
The Red Sox aren’t “stacked” at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Their farm system is one of the most overrated in baseball.
Being “stacked” at the A Ball level means nothing. Even if one is “stacked” at that level.
You find out about players as to whether or not they are real prospects, once they hit AA. If they struggle in AA, you find out they may be more hype than anything else.
The Red Sox don’t have much at the AA and AAA levels.
THAT’s an indication of how overrated their farm system really is.
Last year at this time, all we heard about was how Lars Anderson was the real deal. He stunk in AA, while Jesus Montero mashed in AA.
This year? Its universal that Montero is the better prospect.
Theo Epstein had no prospects ready to fill the holes on his team this off-season. He had to go the more expensive route of free agency and made his team OLDER (and less talented) in the process.
For major market teams, you contend for a long time when your prospects can fill parts of your roster, with a few rising to the level of star players.
Look at the guys from within who helped the Yankees win a title this year. Aceves, Robertson, Chamberlain, Pena, Hughes, Cabrera, Gardner, Cervelli, as well as the old guard of Jeter, Posada, Andy and Mo. The Sox don’t have anything close to that right now.
The Yankees have more prospects at the AA and AAA levels (ie: players that can contribute to the roster) than the Red Sox do, and that’s pretty telling.
Especially since the Red Sox had a 3 year head start over the Yankees in re-tooling their farm system.
SJ44
January 5th, 2010 at 10:07 am
How can anybody make an evaluation of Gardner after one year?
Terrible hitter? Not quite. Holes in his swing? Absolutely.
Melky Cabrera spent a chunk of 2008 in AAA because he fell so far down the ladder. He worked his way back and had a solid season last year.
Its going to be interesting to see what adjustments Gardner makes in his second season in the majors.
If he can successfully make them, he will help the team.
He was hitting the ball very well until he broke his thumb. After that, he fell into his bad plate habits again.
If he can break those habits, he can be a productive player. If not, he won’t be much of anything.
———————————————————–
I’m not arguing against you but isn’t that why Kevin Long is on the team? Shouldn’t he be working with gardner, or anyone else for that matter, so these things don’t happen? and where was kevin long in the world series where it seemed everyone stopped hitting – and don’t tell me it was the superior pitching as they faced a broken down pedro, an average joe blanton and a really terrible bullpen lead by chan ho park
on a separate note SJ44 – it seems you are the go to guy regarding salary questions – if you’re the yankee gm next year and you have been crying this year about budgets and not exceeding them and trying to lower payroll what are you going to do with jeter and rivera next year- it would seem very hypocritical to nickle and dime matsui and damon over 2 million dollars and then opening up the vault to extend a 37 year old jeter and a 41 year old rivera for 20 million and 15 million again for god knows how many years..
what are the absolute dropdead salaries you are offering them (and years)keeping in mind the (ahem) budget and financial flexibility that was preached to us this year…
thanks
Brett Gardner projections (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
Bill James: .277/.368/.375/.743
Fans (Fangraphs): .273/.344/.373/.717
CHONE: .266/.351/.375/.726
I’m restless because the Yankees have a golden opportunity to go for the kill and set themselves up for a 5 year death grip on the Sox, the AL East and the rest of baseball.
It’s really simple for them to make that 1 big splash.
Holliday.
blake,
I can agree some of that. I don’t really have much of an “opinion” or projection on Gardner, more so than a statistically support belief that it won’t matter much EITHER way.
You said it yourself. It won’t make or break the season either way.
Gardner could very well underperform as compared to last season’s .724.
But I can’t find any model to suggest the situation will ever be imperative in regards to the Yankees 2010 chances and if it ever did, we all know what team is best suited to address that imperative in-season.
Honestly, I don’t care that some people have no confidence in him. Frankly I don’t have much myself. I don’t think he’s much of a hitter and wouldn’t be shocked if by 2012 he’s a bench coach at Staten Island. It’s just plainly obvious to anyone who bothers to consider it in context that it just doesn’t matter that much.
The Yankees are very likely to compete for their division, home field advantage and most certainly qualify for the post-season whether they are forced to give Ramiro Pena 500 AB’s in left, or Matt Holiday.
Under THAT POV, I find it hard to justify the expense of spending 10 to 40 TIMES what Gardner will make. And I find it even harder to justify the terms in which fans speak of the notion of him in left.
PERSPECTIVE is a universally good thing to have.
If Mauer did hit the market next year I think he’s a guy the Yankees would go to war with the Sox over. They should have a better handle on whether Montero will be able to catch by this time next year and if the answer is no and Mauer doesn’t re-sign with the Twins then I can see Hal fudging the budget a bit to keep him away from Boston..
The Sox have few major league ready minor leaguers. Stacked in the low levels means zero. Not sure that is true either. This Casey Kelly kid has been hyped, but Lars Anderson was too last year and double a he put up crappy numbers. Low levels of the minors mean zero. When you win every year and you have to sign free agents you lose picks and your picks get worse. That much is true and what depleted the Yankees farm. You need to trade pieces too. The Sox have lost depth over the last few years in needing to make moves. When you need to fill that many positions and key ones at that you need to go back into free agency. Most of their minor league talent are pitchers. They have tried to replace Varitek for the last few years and have zero worthy catching prospects? How many years have they tried to put a SS out there? They have no middle of the lineup projectable bats anywhere close. There are no Jesus Monteros for them. There are no more Hanley Ramirez’s to move in a trade. They are in transition now and it comes to a head next year. Believe me Cash is doing the right thing retaining flexability. The Yankees could add some nice pieces next year if they wish and keep the key pieces the Sox need to rebuild away from them. Mark my words the Tex move will go down as one of the biggest moves of the decade. The Yankees got a stud bat and player in the heart of their lineup and the Sox didn’t pony up the extra dough. Things would look a lot different for us and them with Tex in a Sox uniform.
MYU, are we really playing the “trying to get the last word in but at the same time suggesting I’m above that” game?
You saw the stats I laid out. They shouldn’t be hard to refute if that were possible.
NYSandman, I’m confused. Exactly what Yankee player doesn’t have the attitude that Gardner apparently possesses?
Put simply. The Sox have major holes to fill and have nothing of note to fill it in their farm system.
Yankees have locked up their infield essentially assuming Jeter is back.
They have Granderson locked in CF and Swisher, but OFers are plentiful.
Catchers – Posada will be gone, but they have Montero, Cervelli or any of a number of other catching prospects like Romine in the minors. And that’s if Mauer doesn’t hit the market.
Pitchers – They have minor leaguers, but CC and Aj locked up. Hughes and Joba there in the wings. Will probably hit free agent market.
Closer – Once Mariano leaves probably Hughes or Joba as a replacement, if not free agency, but certainly have options.
So at the end of the day, the Yankees have more pieces in the minors becoming major league ready than the Sox do. They always have money resources to spend. And at the end of the day they have much fewer holes to fill and the holes are at positions with much more available talent to fill them from.
When you win every year and you have to sign free agents you lose picks and your picks get worse. That much is true and what depleted the Yankees farm. You need to trade pieces too
——————————————————–
Isn’t this why its even more intelligent to sign players like Chapman who are available, are young, would only cost money and would never be available to a team like the yankees (or redsox) in the amateur draft?
If Bay, Beltre, and Holliday are the Big names, heaven help baseball. Wait until 2010, now that’s some big names!
Cardinals and 14 other teams have called about Wang, says Alan Nero, in the St Louis, Globe-Democrat.com
SJ, very good post and all good points. However, I don’t know of any position prospects in AA or AAA outside of Montero and Romine that are going to help us in the next few years. We have a few pitchers that might, but I don’t know anyone that thinks the upper levels of our farm system are particularly strong.
The same things you said about the Sox lower levels can be said about the Yankees, so we can call them even if you like. My intention was not to worship at the Sox altar, but just to suggest that they are not necessarily going away.
IMO the Cards are going after Holliday b/c they fully intend to re-sign Pujols. And if the Twins don’t re-sign Mauer, they don’t deserve to have a team anymore. I know they let Santana and Hunter go, but Mauer is the face of that franchise.
Phranchise, well said.
TylerKepner CC Sabathia will appear on The Jay Leno Show this Thursday night (1/7/10) at 10 p.m. on NBC.
25 minutes ago from web
pat
January 5th, 2010 at 11:05 am
TylerKepner CC Sabathia will appear on The Jay Leno Show this Thursday night (1/7/10) at 10 p.m. on NBC.
25 minutes ago from web
*************************
Awesome!!
Frank
I agree on the surface with your analysis of Ortiz’ contract last night.
There is just one thing that cannot be quantified by you or I, is the fact that he (plus needle in buttocks) is one of the top 10 clutch hitters of all time and may have been compensated as such.
The key point that I should have brought up to begin with re: Beltre and his chicken scraps 1 year contract.
Beltre versus Damon (both Boras clients)
Beltre, younger than Damon
Beltre, more power than Damon
Beltre, more upside than Damon, especially in that dump of a Fenway Park.
Beltre, plays gold glove caliber defense at a prime position.
Damon, older, probably more injury prone, plays left field and poorly at that, some have said his power is a product of NYS.
Where is Boras allowing Damon to take a 1 year deal with us, like he did Beltre with the Red Sox.
And one other factor, Beltre had no ties to the Red Sox, Damon has ties to us.
“NYSandman, I’m confused. Exactly what Yankee player doesn’t have the attitude that Gardner apparently possesses?”
That came off wrong. I love everything about the current Yankee’s chemistry and attitude. The look on the player’s faces after Teixeira hit that walk off against the Twins says it all. What I meant was that Gardner’s attitude is one that I would hope all future Yankees would possess. This year, we proved we could finish out games and win the close ones. Sure, sometimes we won just by hammering the ball over the wall, but other times we had to play small ball. On this front Brett Gardner will be an assett.
It doesnt matter that the yanks dont have any position players from the minors ready to step in because the yanks have no open positions for the next few years. Catcher is the one glaring hole and it looks like they can fill that with the farm.
What do you mean by “help”, Betsy? Take last season as an example and you’ll see that Pena and Cervelli “helped” the Yankees win ballgames last year. Maybe Russo, Nunez, Curtis, or Corona will do the same this year.
It’s not all about developing stars it’s also about developing players who can contribute to the team.
Outside of Jeter, all of the infield positions seem to be set for the next 7-8 years. Even if we did have a positional prospect, there’d be nowhere for him to play. I sincerely doubt Montero stays a catcher. And the only vacancies we have are the OF – and I would assume that’s were some of these 7-8 year contracts will go when they can no longer field their positions.
“Are Granderson, Johnson, and Vazquez not “big pieces”?”
Last time I saw Vazquez pitch in pinstripes he was a “big piece” alright.
interesting Gammons on the FAN says Gardner will be in CF & CG will play LF…neither of those two working the show question him about that….my take Gardner is good at what he does,pinch run and play a little D…they need to go out and get someone that plays better than him, not a all-star just someone better
SJ thinks that Kelly is overhyped but Oppenheimer thinks he has a bright future.
For what it’s worth, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said Kelly has a bright future as a pitcher and called him a “great kid.”
HAHA
Jason Bay, at his Mets news conference, was asked about Peter Gammons quote about “Bay would rather play in Beirut than Queens”
Bay said, he had not had any contact with any media member, definitely not Gammons.
“That could not be farther from the truth, that hurts a little bit”
Basically (and I already knew it from the beginning), Peter Gammons was fraudulently reported that in an effort to bring Bay back to the Red Sox.
Here’s a link to a review of the Red Sox system by John Sickels:
http://www.minorleagueball.com.....-prospects
Bottom line, he likes the prospects in their system and thinks that in a year it will look even better.
Christina25 January 5th, 2010 at 11:19 am
SJ thinks that Kelly is overhyped but Oppenheimer thinks he has a bright future.
For what it’s worth, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said Kelly has a bright future as a pitcher and called him a “great kid.”
Did he say he would be a number 1 major league starter? No.
Sandman, gotcha……
Country Club and Tom, that’s very true. I admit I’m guilty of not looking beyond the obvious potential stars. Cervelli was actually a pretty big contributor this year; when Posada and Molina went down this year, it looked like it could be disastrous for us. Not only did Frankie hold his own offensively, but he the veterans absolutely loved his game-calling (that’s a pretty rare thing). I like the idea of introducing a youngster or two every year or so (if possible) – it not only makes the team younger, but it brings a refreshing youthful attitude. I loved it when the players all ignored Pena after he hit his first HR…..
CR9
January 5th, 2010 at 11:23 am
HAHA
Jason Bay, at his Mets news conference, was asked about Peter Gammons quote about “Bay would rather play in Beirut than Queens”
Bay said, he had not had any contact with any media member, definitely not Gammons.
“That could not be farther from the truth, that hurts a little bit”
Basically (and I already knew it from the beginning), Peter Gammons was fraudulently reported that in an effort to bring Bay back to the Red Sox.
********************
I’m not surprised. I stopped listening to Gammons when he said that Leigh Teixeira didn’t want Mark to go to Boston because the shopping was better in New York.
Joeman, I hope Peter is smoking something because Granderson should not be moving to LF for Gardner…..
Betsy
Peter usually is smoking something.
He usually is smoking the drug known as the Red Sox.
Betsy notwithstanding, few will disagree that Curtis Granderson was a good move, and Nick Johnson minus freak injuries will hit.
What rang my bell as much as anything was getting Javy Vasquez. It can’t be overemphasized how valuable he’ll be as an innings eater and result in keeping the bullpen from being overworked.
Cashman can’t take the chance of a Gardner / Hoffman platoon in 2010. He’ll do his usual flying under the radar and get a LF before the month is over.
BP:
Mo
Marte
Joba/Hughes
D-Rob
Aceves
Gaudin
?
?
Bench:
Cervelli
Pena/Russo
Hoffman
?
Who fills out the BP and the Bench ?
CR9
You asked where Boras was getting JD to sign for a 1 year deal with us and I think I have an answer for you. While many people believe differently, if you look at it, the Red Sox own Boras. The got the better of him in negotiations with Varitek, Dice-K, JD Drew and now Beltre. The only reason everyone believes the Red Sox hate Boras is because of Teixeira but the reality of the situation is that the Yankees wanted Tex more, offered more money and didn’t put their foot in their mouth like Larry Lucchino. That had little if anything to do with Boras.
And in contrast, the Yankees are always ready to go the extra mile for Boras clients because they have to always give the New York surcharge as Buster Olney once said in order to get players to come to the Yanks. Hence the 300 mil for A-rod, the 4 year deal for Damon in 2006, and the more money for Tex to lure him away from the Red Sox.
Did he say he would be a number 1 major league starter? No.
But according to the Yankee scouting director he is not overhyped either.
Jacob
How exactly did the Red Sox get the better of Boras with JD Drew? The Red Sox tampered with Drew to get him to opt out of his Dodgers deal and got significantly more money with the Sox.
Another Red Sox owning Boras scenario that many people forget is that when they tried to acquire A-rod after the ’03 season, Boras was trying to get Alex to restructure his contract to take less money to play for Boston while also trying to get his other client, Magglio Ordonez to be traded to the Red Sox for Nomar. The end result would have been Manny to the Rangers, Nomar to the White Sox, and 2 more Boras clients, Mags & Alex to the Red Sox. If the MLBPA didn’t veto A-rod restructuring his contract, Alex would be a Red Sox right now.
Sox paid 14 M/ year for drew and he is ALWAYS hurt. not nearly worth the money.
I actually have to agree with CR9 on this one.
I don’t see at all how the Sox got the best of Boras with Drew. In my opinion the Sox overpaid Drew.
It was Boras who convinced the Sox to sign Eric Gagne a couple years ago. We all know how that worked out.
“I agree that GGBG is fast.
That he will be a good defender in LF.
That he can steal bases if he can get on.
That he MIGHT hit 270 or so.”
Gardner was better than some people remember. He DID hit .270 last year. IIRC he was hitting close to .290 when he broke a bone. He never got his stoke back after than, as SJ44 pointed out. And, players often improve in their second year.
Sure Gardner might regress and drop to .270 or worse. OTOH he might be able to build on what he did the first part of last year and hit .290 – .300 level. I hope hegets the chance to play regularly. Then, we’ll find out what he can actually do.
the sox are so smooth that they are paying salaries for other teams. Lowell and Lugo.
Yankees minor league system has MORE championships this past decade than Boston. Trenton (2 in a row) and Scranton. Take that boston farm system lovers !
The thing with Casey Kelly which is a little side note. Going into that draft the Yankees were projected at taking him. But Cole fell due to signability and that’s the way they went as I think the Sox picked after the Yankees. So Cole goes to college and the Sox get Kelly. Would be ashamed if he amounted to something. But low level A ball pitchers with potential have a ways to go and you never know how arms hold up as they progress thru the minors. He is far from a sure thing. It makes it that much more amusing when the hype machines make it seem like he is the main piece of any trade. No matter who the pitcher may be, a minor leaguer in single A ball is not a key to any big trade as they are only worth so much to an acuqiring team. He is years away and fans want to see returns when trading away superstars.
Casey Kelly is better than any Yankee minor leaguer or major leaguer, just ask espn & other baseball ‘experts’, they’ll tell ya
If Boras is the agent, teams always over pay! Look at the Cardinals, the only bidder for Holliday.
Gm Mozeliak is so desperate to show Albert that they are committed to winning, he’s giving a contract way too high for this market on Holliday, and the history of their team.
Well, I see your point with everyone aside from Drew.
I really do not see how people view Boras as owning the Red Sox, Teixeira aside (as he wanted to be a Yankee and the Yankees wanted him).
He seems to give favorable contracts to the Red Sox.
Maybe he will give Damon to the Yankees on a nice cushy Beltre like 1 year deal.
Like I posted above and did not receive many responses, if Beltre, a Boras client, can take the peanuts he did from the Sox, I think Damon, another Boras client, should take a similar deal from us, as he is not even as valuable as Beltre.
ray and CR
The reason I say that Boras got the better of the Sox in the Drew negotiations is that Drew was set to make 11 million a year for 3 more years with the Dodgers before opting out. He received an AAV of only 3 million more per year but was forced to agree to a contract in which the Red Sox have the right to void either of the two remaining years on the contract if he spends more the 35 days in one season on the DL due to a right shoulder condition. Given Drew’s injury history and his usual extended stay on the DL, this to me and I am certain to JD and Boras, was a huge concession to be forced to make when they had all the leverage.
“I don’t see at all how the Sox got the best of Boras with Drew. In my opinion the Sox overpaid Drew.”
Fangraphs actually shows Drew earning $45.4M over his three years in Boston, while Boston paid $42M. Break even?
Fangraphs tends to be fairly player friendly regarding what a players “earned” so far as I can tell. Drew’s OPS (.910+ the past two years) and defense rate quite well, yet I can’t get my arms around him being a $14M per season guy.
ray-
Gagme,I mean Gagne was acquired via trade, had nothing to do with Boras.
I’m aware that Boston has helped their team with the addition of Lackey, Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro. But…I think they have added too many guys that are on the wrong side of the 30-year old mark. At this time they have those 4 players, plus David Ortiz, Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, JD Drew and Mike Lowell on their roster. That means they will have to do a mass replacement over the next 2-3 years. Everyone claims that their minor league system is the best in the history of the game (hee hee) with more future Hall of Famers than all other teams combined (hee hee), but the truth of the matter is that if they try making a mass replacement of these old players with young players then they are going to go backwards for a while. It takes young players a while to come up from the minors and fulfill their potential. The Red Sox may feel some bravado about the fact that Dustin Pedroya came up and was an immediate star…but thats the exception…not the rule.
I like the fact that with free agency (Texeira & Sabathia) trades (Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher) and prospect from the minors (Cano, Joba, Hughes, Robertson, Gardner & Cervelli) the Yankees are introducing sub-30 year olds to the team every year. Yeah, I don’t expect all of the guys I listed to stick with the Yankees long term, but the Yankees will be better off by integrating young players now than the Red Sox are by continually adding old fogies to the roster.
http://www.tmz.com/2010/01/05/.....n-rihanna/
I would love to get this playa, er, player!
Chad, be sure to let us know how well Bay fakes being happy that he’s a Met.
Wave,
Two years ago, the same writer pronounced the Sox farm system one of the “three best in baseball”.
He always overhypes the Sox system.
Bottom line is, you evaluate a system in two ways:
1. Players that help the parent club win.
2. Players you can trade to acquire assets that help the parent club win.
Frankly, the Yankees have done a better job of that than the Sox in the last couple of years.
Amazing when you consider the Yankees started 3 years later than the Sox in re-vamping their farm system.
Christina,
I didn’t say Kelly was overhyped. I said Lars Anderson was and is overhyped.
Casey Kelly is an interesting pitching prospect. However, 2 years of playing in A Ball tells us nothing.
Derek Jeter made 56 errors in one season in A Ball.
I guarantee you that if the internet was humming at that time, most of the posters on here would have declared Jeter a “waste of a first round pick”.
When your best prospect is in A Ball, your farm system isn’t what its hyped to be.
“Like I posted above and did not receive many responses, if Beltre, a Boras client, can take the peanuts he did from the Sox, I think Damon, another Boras client, should take a similar deal from us, as he is not even as valuable as Beltre”
Little bit apples and oranges.
Beltre is 30 and coming off a miserable injury riddled offensive season. Despite Boras’ 5/$50M, Beltre really came in selling low. Hard not to assume the AAV on multiyear offers he received were so low that he and Boras determined they’re better off taking a one year deal at a hitter’s park and seeing whether they can better postion Beltre, at age 31, for a better deal thru free agency in 2011.
Damon? He’s deep into the back nine of his career. He derives minimal, if any, benefit by taking a one year deal if he can get two or more elsewhere.
“Chad, be sure to let us know how well Bay fakes being happy that he’s a Met.”
Pretty well if he was faking it. I watched it and he said all the right things and looked pretty happy to be there.
I’ve rad that both the Yankee and Red Sox farm systems are middle of the pack, that the Yankees is horrible and the Red Sox are poised to win the next 10 World Series just with the guys they have in AA, and a lot in between.
Where is there an unbiased evaluation of minor league systems that people trust?
The Theo Paradigm: Beware of anyone who thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room. The 2 RS WS were won primarily because of:
1. The Manny & Big Sloppy Roid Rage Show
2. Trading for Beckett & Lowell – A trade made against Epstein’s wishes by ownership.
Last year’s “I really am a genius” moves of rolling the dice on older pitchers coming off of injuries really backfired.
And now the 2010 Red Sox philosophy: Well we’re going to be the ’85 Bears and win with defense! The starting lineup projects to an approximate 20% strikeout ratio per at bat; I love Scutaro but there’s a reason he has been a career utilityman; VMart couldn’t through Posada out; there really isn’t a whole lot of left field for Mike Cameron to defend.
Rotation: Beckett will be great in a contract year; Lester has ace stuff; Lackey will prove to be a fatal mistake because of health and not ability; and frankly Dice K, Clay and Wake aren’t going to keep Kevin Long up at night.
“Little bit apples and oranges.
Beltre is 30 and coming off a miserable injury riddled offensive season. Despite Boras’ 5/$50M, Beltre really came in selling low. Hard not to assume the AAV on multiyear offers he received were so low that he and Boras determined they’re better off taking a one year deal at a hitter’s park and seeing whether they can better postion Beltre, at age 31, for a better deal thru free agency in 2011.
Damon? He’s deep into the back nine of his career. He derives minimal, if any, benefit by taking a one year deal if he can get two or more elsewhere.”
Frank
Agreed. I previously did not recognize that rationale.
But, one thing…
If Beltre has a great offensive year, the Red Sox will just pick up his meager $5 million option for 2011.
So, he really has to have 1 or 2 good offensive years for it to benefit him.
He has no player option for 2011 if he fails this year.
My mistake, it is a player option, not a club option.
When the Yankees added Granderson, it prompted the defensive focus on Bosox part. Bettering the Yankees offense is a daunting task, probably impossible for the sox this offseason.
So bettering them at run prevention became their priority.
Cameron and Beltre are good defensive OF, and were brought in to keep runs down.
Damon? He’s deep into the back nine of his career.
—————————————————
Damon isn’t on the back nine of his career…he’s putting out on the 18th green. Next up…the 19th hole.
Damon
Offense sales tickets, defense wins games.
Vmart is going to have to catch the majority of games this year for the sox…gentleman..start your engines….
Nah I think Damon is more like teeing off #17..he’s got a little left to go and he’s workin on a pretty good round.
The Sox signing Scutaro, Lackey, Cameron and Beltre are very similar to the Yankees years when signing Kenny Lofton or trading for Randy Johnson were necessary to keep the team afloat. When you win you lose picks. So when you weren’t as good or weren’t signing free agents you could build up the farm. When the farm matures you can trade it and replenish the major league talent. Eventually that dries up and to remain competitive you have to go to free agency. At some point, the tipping point, you need to almost go into a year, like the Yankees did, the last year of the Stadium with a team that could win, but wasn’t as strong. Be reluctant to do anything stupid or trade away your youngsters. Then the Yankees came out like gangbusters. The Sox are in a very bad position that will require the same aggressive turn. If they don’t they will continue to slide. I think Theo is always overhyped. He is playing it smart this year though. No long term free agent deals outside of Lackey which was a gamble for their business model. But they are flexable otherwise. His shortfall is they are missing the key positions that many teams need and covet. Catchers are like QBs in Football. Good ones that can hit are expensive. Granted the Yankees went overboard in drafts and signings, but starting with Montero, Cervelli, Romine and so on, they have a long line of quality candidates. Sox – zero. Not all of the Yankees guys will pan out or be catchers, but Cervelli already has proved to be a great backup, great defensively, can call a game and decent enough bat not to be an automatic out. Now go thru the other key positions the Sox are lacking and where are the minor leaguers or replacements? They don’t have them. So Theo has at least set himself up for having money to retain Victor Martinez or getting involved with Mauer. He is lined up to try and pry AGone or go for Pujulous or Fielder. He is in position to try for Lee or resign Beckett. And Cashman as a counterpunch is setup to either land some of those guys or push the prices up for the Sox limiting what they can do financially. Difference is Sox will be desperate and have to spend. The Yankees have all the leverage in the world from money to prospects.
JD missed the boat on the DH role. I will miss him but I swear he looked like he was a drunken sailor on roller skates out in left field last year.
i thought player options are called ‘opt out clauses’?
“Amazing when you consider the Yankees started 3 years later than the Sox in re-vamping their farm system.”
Slightly less amazing when one considers that Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon and Lester, along with Beckett and Lowell, who were acquired in exchange for farmhand Hanley Ramirez, played pretty important roles in one WS in ’07 and one near miss in ’08.
I’m glad the Yankees are ahead, particularly in the upper levels of the system, at this point, but it wasn’t as though Boston got nothing out of the head start you reference.
Beltre’s option is a player option I believe, not a team option. If he has a monster year he will not excersise it. I am sure he will have a nice year and replace Lowell’s numbers. If he is a disaster, the Sox will be stuck with him the following year.
Excellent points Phranchise.
You are right SJ44 you didnt say anything about Kelly being overhyped. I’m sorry. It was The Phranchise.
The Red Sox and Mets are discussing a Luis Castillo for Mike Lowell trade. This could be great news for the Yankees. Instead Castillo being available to drop 6 games winning popups per season against us, he could now potentially drop 18 game winning popups.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....owell.html
I wouldn’t miss facing Mike Lowell’s bat in the lineup 18 times per year, either.
“So bettering them at run prevention became their priority.”
Definitely agree w/ that. Which begs the question, how much better will their run prevention be? I can certainly see it being better than the Yankees, but not by nearly enough to offset the Yankees sizable offensive advantage. Of course, anything can happen, but the Yankees appear to be very capable of besting the Sox in a low-scoring matchup or simply outslugging them. CB brought up some very good points earlier about how the current BOS roster will force them to win games in a narrowly defined manner. Fortunately, we’ve seen the Yankees acquire players such as Tex & Granderson that allow them to field both a capable defense and an elite offense. On the other hand, the Sox seem to be focusing on plus defenders (who are RH) and hoping the home ballpark will enhance their offensive skills.
SJ
I read in one of your earlier posts that you believe that Lee or Beckett are going to require the Sox to go to 5 years to either retain or acquire them because of the Lackey deal. But the real question is do you believe they will be able to get either of them to sign a contract with a similar clause to Lackey’s which protects the Red Sox slightly against an injury?
“i thought player options are called ‘opt out clauses’?”
You say tomato….
Actually I think the difference is an opt out clause is generally placed in the middle of a contract, ala Arod’s from Texas or the one Sabathia is playing under now, whereas the player option is a decision to extend or not extend an expiring contract by a year.
The Sox signing Scutaro, Lackey, Cameron and Beltre are very similar to the Yankees years when signing Kenny Lofton or trading for Randy Johnson were necessary to keep the team afloat…
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Phranchise, great post…you are right. Brian Cashman has put the Yankees in a position of strength over the next few years, while the Red Sox will be in a more desperate situation.
Castillo would save the sox 6 million on the 2010 payroll wouldn’t it? Wouldn’t that keep them out of the luxary tax? That’s probably why they would consider it. Castillo would be a bench player for them.
Everyone should calm down about left field. The Yankees are content with the current situation as they are sure to go after big time free agent Carl Crawford next off season. Cashman is always one step ahead.
“I read in one of your earlier posts that you believe that Lee or Beckett are going to require the Sox to go to 5 years to either retain or acquire them because of the Lackey deal”
I think Burnett’s rather than Lackey’s is the precedent setting contract, but both of those guys will require ANYONE to go 5 years to acquire their services.
Like I said last night, I hope none of the low-risk gambles pay off for the Sox. They’ll have oodles of money to spend next season, even more than they had this year. Boy they raced to that threshold pretty quickly though, huh?
They’ll always be a thorn in our side, but the same holds true for them. The Yankees have been a force for the last decade plus, and show no signs of letting up.
Castillo would save the sox 6 million on the 2010 payroll wouldn’t it? Wouldn’t that keep them out of the luxary tax? That’s probably why they would consider it. Castillo would be a bench player for them.
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I guess it depends on how much of Lowell’s contract would be paid by the Red Sox. I can’t imagine the Mets being willing to pick up all $12 million…but they aren’t necessarily the smartest people in baseball.
Castillo? Popup Castillo? He’d be smart to call in sick on the days the Sox play in the Bronx if that trade goes through.
“Castillo would save the sox 6 million on the 2010 payroll wouldn’t it? Wouldn’t that keep them out of the luxary tax? That’s probably why they would consider it. Castillo would be a bench player for them.”
Someone posted a piece from WEEI.com on here that suggested the Red Sox, for lux tax purposes had a payroll of $168M BEFORE Beltre. With Beltre it’s $177M. If there was swap of the two players, they go down to $171M, but they’d also on the hook for another $6M due Castillo in 2011.
Restless? Check.
Also held in suspense over what will happen with Wang and Damon, two of my favorite Yankees.
Btw Chad and Sam you’re doing a great job with hot stove this year – it’s going by a lot faster despite the insane cold.
“Pretty well if he was faking it. I watched it and he said all the right things and looked pretty happy to be there.”
Millions of dollars will do that to a fella. I’ll be curious to see how many HRs he hits in CitiField.
Who really cares about the Red Sox? Personally, I’m thrilled that Jason Bay, who murdered Yankee pitching, is now playing in Queens. Looks like Mike Lowell’s days in Boston are all but over with, which means another Yankee masher is out of their line up.
Boston’s moves have been nice, no doubt about it. But the Yankees are still a stronger team. I would rather have Teixeira than Youkillis, Jeter over Marco, A-Rod over Beltre, Granderson over Elsburry, Swisher over Drew. I also think our pitching staff’s are pretty even, especially in the starting rotation. I also believe our bull pen is better.
Again, nobody should care what Boston does because they haven’t made earth shattering moves.
Someone posted a piece from WEEI.com on here that suggested the Red Sox, for lux tax purposes had a payroll of $168M BEFORE Beltre. With Beltre it’s $177M. If there was swap of the two players, they go down to $171M, but they’d also on the hook for another $6M due Castillo in 2011.
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If thats the case, the Red Sox will still be over the luxury tax threshhold (which is $170 million for 2010). Not by much…but they’ll be there.
http://www.stevetheump.com/luxury_tax.htm
Anthony Murillo
Agreed. As long as no other major moves are made by them between now and July 31, there should be no panic in Yankees Universe.
“If thats the case, the Red Sox will still be over the luxury tax threshhold (which is $170 million for 2010). Not by much…but they’ll be there.”
Yup. Won’t be much. Tax will fall between $230K and $1.6M depending on how the Lowell thing plays out, but they will pay something.
I have to think the sox have a plan for avoiding the luxary tax. You would think if they were planning on going over that threshhold it would have been for Bay or Holliday , not Beltre.
Blake:
If they’re only talking about $1.5M on the high end, I don’t see them getting too emotional over it.
If the Yankees sign a guy like Crawford (or as I know they won’t Holliday), then where does Jeter play when he can no longer play short? I don’t see the Yankees locking up a LF to a long term deal for that reason. No one talks about it, but it seems obvious to me that Cash has to be thinking about that…unless they intend to let Jeter go.
“If thats the case, the Red Sox will still be over the luxury tax threshhold (which is $170 million for 2010). Not by much…but they’ll be there.”
Yup. Won’t be much. Tax will fall between $230K and $1.6M depending on how the Lowell thing plays out, but they will pay something.
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Yes, additionally that makes it tougher for them to do an in-season trade for Adrian Gonzalez because he makes close to $5 million. If they want to get him, they will have to dump more salary or pay an additional 40% on top of his salary.
If the Yankees sign a guy like Crawford (or as I know they won’t Holliday), then where does Jeter play when he can no longer play short?
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IMO, Jeter could move to right field. I don’t think that Nick Swisher is going to be a Yankee long term.
“Yes, additionally that makes it tougher for them to do an in-season trade for Adrian Gonzalez because he makes close to $5 million. If they want to get him, they will have to dump more salary or pay an additional 40% on top of his salary”
Actually it’s only 22.5% for them because they aren’t multiple repeat “offenders”.