Take another one off the list
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 06, 2010 
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One more member of the championship Yankees has signed elsewhere. Corner outfielder and infielder Eric Hinske has signed with the Atlanta Braves.
The Yankees landed Hinske in June for a pair of minor leaguers, most notably Casey Erickson, who’s not exactly a highly touted prospect but has put up good numbers. With the Yankees, Hinske didn’t hit for average (.212) or get on base at a very good clip (.316 OBP) but he did hit some homers. In just 84 Yankees at-bats, Hinske had seven homers.
Before coming to the Yankees he had one home run in 106 at-bats with the Pirates.
If he made any sense for the Yankees in 2010, it was as a fourth or fifth outfielder who could occasionally give Alex Rodriguez a day off at third and come off the bench to face lefties.
———
Obviously the big news of the day will be the 2010 Hall of Fame class. The announcement is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET. My guess is that Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven and Barry Larkin will get in. Maybe Andre Dawson and Tim Raines as well. I think Edgar Martinez will get in at some point, but I don’t think it will happen this year. That is, of course, a very uneducated guess.
With Hinske gone who is gonna be this year’s lucky charm ?
Melky will have some company!! Good luck to Hinske.
#redsox Tito on Lowell: needs to get healthy & will be “treated with respect
___________
Since when do the Sox treat their players with respect?
By next july, hinske will be reavailable when the braves fall out of it and are in dump mode. maybe we can get melky back too.
It’s time that Cashman made a decision on a proven leftfielder. Gardner / Hoffmann is not the answer.
With Hinkse in Atlanta, I guess Damon is no longer an option there. I’m really curious to see where he lands. If he gives discount on a one year deal, I doubt it will be to NY.
A small point based on something I read on the other thread: I don’t think the MSM understands computerized projections.
“By next july, hinske will be reavailable when the braves fall out of it and are in dump mode. maybe we can get melky back too.”
I thought the idea was to get better.
Liked that Hinske-Kevin James guy!
Think that his going to the Braves has any effect on Damon’s chances of winding up in the ATL? Will Johnny come marching home???
so does this mean the Braves are going to the WS?
“With Hinkse in Atlanta, I guess Damon is no longer an option there.”
Wouldn’t go that far. Hinske’s a bench guy.
Still wonder why OBP starved Rangers don’t get in on Damon to lead off and be an OF/DH.
I just want to take a moment to say despite not liking any of the remaining free agents available, and despite not wanting to give up anyone of any actual value in a trade, its time for Brian Cashman to bring in a new LF option.
Perhaps he could build one in his lab…
Kate-
We can beat the Braves even with Hinske there.
I find it difficult to believe that Damon will sign with San Francisco. That park will kill the value his bat, just like it did with Aaron Rowand. It won’t help him get to his goal of 3,000 hits, either.
I agree with the concept that play on the field and not projections are what matters. With that said, last year does not matter either. All teams start tied. I feel the Yankees should do all they can do, within whatever payroll realities they have, to put their best team on the field. Can Boston win next year? Absolutely. The same for the Yankees.
I really see no point in the posts that project only negative for Red Sox acquisitions and success for Yankee acquisitions. The Red Sox will be good. It will be a dogfight. Make no mistake about it. Their defense has certainly improved. Why is it, defensive improvement matters little for them, but Gardner’s defense will be a big help for the Yankees? The Sox have focused on pitching and defense. Haven’t we all said that is what wins?
I am not negative about my teams chances. I like the team a lot, but I would like another bullpen option and a left fielder. The depth in the bullpen and the outfield still needs to be addressed.
I just realized something:
JD is DJ backwards.
another sign that Damon must return ( or Nady).
DJ
JD
Etc.
There’s a lot of people ahead of Edgar Martinez to get into the HOF. He was a specialist and not unlike relief pitchers, it took years for them to be accepted as HOF worthy.
with cameron and beltre , instead of buying the latest Lexus RX SUV( holliday) and having 5 years of payments, the red sox went with two 5 year old Range Rovers with 150,000 miles on them .
the flexibility is great for the future, but don’t plan on any long trips in the short run.
Disappointing – the Yankees seemingly want to go very cheap with their bench. I liked Hinske and I see no reason why he shouldn’t have been re-signed.
Stuckey, so you aren’t satisfied with Gardner now?
“Wouldn’t go that far. Hinske’s a bench guy.”
But they added Hinkse and Melky.
Betsy-
Think Juan Miranda.
randy l.
January 6th, 2010 at 9:39 am
with cameron and beltre , instead of buying the latest Lexus RX SUV( holliday) and having 5 years of payments, the red sox went with two 5 year old Range Rovers with 150,000 miles on them .
the flexibility is great for the future, but don’t plan on any long trips in the short run.
————————————————————
It is an upgrade of buying those two used Yugos last year, though in Penny (his worth) and Smoltz.
Holliday got 7 years – that’s absolutely crazy. He’s not worth that the $$$ and years the Cards gave him..and again, why aren’t the mediots blasting them? Holliday had no suitors except the Cards yet they completely bid against themselves. I promise that if that had been the Yankees, we’d see them calling the Yankees out – they’re all a bunch of hypocrites.
As to Holliday’s quote, maybe he’s like Don Mattingly and never heard of Babe Ruth. The Cards completely folded in the playoffs this year….
randy, don’t range rovers break down a lot? My wife has a new Rx, that little joystick thing is pretty sweet.. She gets all the good stuff.
MTU, I’d rather not.
blake,
That was called sarcasm. My little comment on the constant drive-by posts expressing dissatisfaction with LF but offering not real solution other than Brian Cashman pulling a rabbit out of his hat.
I’d be fine with Gardner. I’m be fine with a trade that proved a tangible upgrade and perhaps for a little longer term even if it required including a prospect(s) of some actual value (not Montero of course)
I’d even be satisfied with a low-cost flier on Ankiel.
Not a advocate of bringing back Damon (even on a cheaper one-year deal), but not really going to complain about that either.
Most of all I’m pretty reserved to the fact any option probably won’t make a lick of real difference in the long-run.
Betsy,
Players want to play. Eric Hinske is looking for PT. If it doesn’t work out in Atlanta, they will deal him.
Most players don’t sign on for bench roles. Especially since these days, bench roles pay little money.
The bench is the last thing a team needs to fill out as you go along. Those type of players are always available during the season.
They become more attractive during the season because a team has already paid 1/3-1/2 of their salaries when they are dealt.
For a team like the Yankees, where most of their guys play everyday, there is no bigger waste of money they expensive bench pieces.
“Disappointing – the Yankees seemingly want to go very cheap with their bench. I liked Hinske and I see no reason why he shouldn’t have been re-signed.”
Betsy,
Except for getting another OF, I think Cashman is doing the right thing by going with some younger players on the bench and seeing what they can do in the majors. There are guys like Miranda, Pena and Russo. Later in the season, players such as Corona, Nunez, Curtis and yes, Montero might be ready to contribute to the big club.
You can always trade for bench players which has been Cashman’s MO.
“But they added Hinkse and Melky.”
Melky would appear to be on the good end of a platoon with Diaz. Braves could certainly live with that, but, like the Yankees, may still be thinking they could improve on that.
If they were considering Damon this time yesterday (and I don’t know that they were), it’s hard to imagine the addition of a spare part like Hinske changes that.
The list of Scott Boras clients to be signed has been shortened with Damon almost standing alone.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....s-cli.html
Martinez was a very good hitter. But are his career stats-.312BA-309HRS-1261RBIs good enough to get him into the HoF?
He never played the field and never won an MVP.
A stronger case could be made for Dale Murphy. He won 2 MVP awards, 5 gold gloves, and hit about 90 more home runs than Edgar.
let Roberto Alomar and Larkin wait. Yes, they both HOF players.
however: Dawson, Lee Smith, Raines have waited long enough. You can prolly add Blyleven as well
Stuckey, maybe cashman can borrow Boras’s magic hat because he apparently has one.. What’s your thoughts on Dejesus?
Betsy, you seemingly pride yourself on being a fan that sees clearly and not being the type of fan that (for example) “expects an all-star at every position”.
That said, is it really having any perspective to use the word “cheap” and “Yankees” together in any sentence?
“If they were considering Damon this time yesterday (and I don’t know that they were), it’s hard to imagine the addition of a spare part like Hinske changes that.”
You seriously think they are going to add three players from the Yankees’ mediocre OF?
I’ll admit when I am proved wrong.
“For a team like the Yankees, where most of their guys play everyday, there is no bigger waste of money they expensive bench pieces.”
though they did get lucky having swisher on the bench last winter.
an expensive flexible guy who play a few positions can be a hedge against injury.
but i see the point, if none of the stars get hurt, the guy doesn’t play much.
Dejesus looks like a capable player, and would likely prove an upgrade over Gardner, and I believe is under team control for a couple of years.
But for those reasons he’s NOT going to be acquired for Yankee system cast-offs like Juan Miranda and Edwar Ramirez. Not even if you add 3 or 4 of them together.
Dejesus will hurt a little to get.
Miranda has light tower power, and can mash righties.
he should be able to fill a bench role at least.
“Holliday got 7 years – that’s absolutely crazy. He’s not worth that the $$$ and years the Cards gave him..and again, why aren’t the mediots blasting them?”
He probably is worth that money.
So far I’ve only read three opinions, both Law and Olney have questioned the Cardinals bidding against themselves and Heyman indicated a huge victory for Boras given that he was down to one bidder. That would imply St. Louis got played a bit, no?
“You seriously think they are going to add three players from the Yankees’ mediocre OF?”
As I said, I don’t know whether there’s interest on the Braves part. Merely pointed out that Hinske isn’t the type of addition that would change their interest if indeed they have any.
Corona’s not all that much to look forward to. He’s not much better than a pinch runner. Minimal power, not much of a bat, defensively, he’s pretty good as a 2nd baseman. He stinks at third and not much better at short. In short, he’s an infield version of Gardner without the bat.
“So far I’ve only read three opinions, both Law and Olney have questioned the Cardinals bidding against themselves and Heyman indicated a huge victory for Boras given that he was down to one bidder. That would imply St. Louis got played a bit, no”
———————————————–
i heard Scott Boras treated his Hoe to a nice dinner afterwards and bottle of wine
Vinny-
You mean heyman ?
I’m wondering how many people arguing that Hinske should have been brought back as injury protection would actually be satisfied with Hinkse getting extended, everyday playing time in case of an injury?
“You seriously think they are going to add three players from the Yankees’ mediocre OF?”
The Braves don’t care where the players came from. They only care if the players are a “fit” for their team.
Also, this was a “mediocre” outfield of a World Series championship team. By some Yankees’ fans standards this outfield may have been “mediocre”, by MLB standards Damon, Melky and Hinske would be nice pieces for an outfield.
“It is an upgrade of buying those two used Yugos last year, though in Penny (his worth) and Smoltz.”
gb7-
i found a vehicle for you :
http://www.ewillys.com/wp-cont.....umbus1.jpg
“You mean heyman ?”
————————–
you know it : )
randy l.
January 6th, 2010 at 10:04 am
“It is an upgrade of buying those two used Yugos last year, though in Penny (his worth) and Smoltz.”
gb7-
i found a vehicle for you :
http://www.ewillys.com/wp-cont…..umbus1.jpg
————————————————————
I loved those things, Randy. They’d go anywhere. They had drawbacks, though. They were cold and I never saw one that had doors and a top that didn’t leak when it rained.
“As I said, I don’t know whether there’s interest on the Braves part. Merely pointed out that Hinske isn’t the type of addition that would change their interest if indeed they have any.”
As I said, Hinske and Melky (since it’s implied that you have to factor in what they add to what they already have).
And again, I’ll admit it when I’m wrong…
GB-
isn’t this more you ?
http://www.oldride.com/classic_cars/450771.html
“The Braves don’t care where the players came from. They only care if the players are a “fit” for their team.”
The point is that these players aren’t that good.
“Also, this was a “mediocre” outfield of a World Series championship team. By some Yankees’ fans standards this outfield may have been “mediocre”,
I thought the Yankees won because of CC, Jeter, Teix, Rivera, Posada, AJ, Pettitte, Hughes, Alex, Matsui, and Cano.
My bad.
” by MLB standards Damon, Melky and Hinske would be nice pieces for an outfield.”
Not for a contender.
This seems like a car GB would drive:
http://www.amazon.com/JL421-Ba.....B00067F1CE
Come on, I would LOVE for Raines to get in, and I would personally vote for him… but do you think there’s a chance in hell of him jumping from 22.6% last year to 75% this year?
blake, took a closer look at DeJesus. Offensively, you’d have to count on NYS boosting his slugging fairly significantly, or his offensive upgrade would be something of a mirage.
He’s not much of a gap hitter (averaging 27 dbls over the last 3 seasons) even in a big park, and can’t run for beans (4 SB, 9 CS last year).
If Gardner performed exactly as he did last season, his effective OPS (factoring in extra based taken on the basepaths) would pretty much fall in line with DeJesus.
DeJesus would have to boost his HR and Gardner would have to regress for there to be any added value there, which leads to be question would the cost of acquisition be worthwhile.
I guess it comes down with whether you allow for the fact Gardner can maintain or improve or if you’re fully expecting regression.
“I just don’t see how the Sox have made up THAT much ground on the Yankees. The Yankees were a much better team last year and they’ve improved this year. The Sox have improved as well, but not THAT much.”
This isn’t primarily an issue of the Sox getting better. It’s an issue of the yankees being unlikely to win as many games as they did last year because 103 win seasons just aren’t all that common – especially in the AL East.
People keep saying the yankees have “improved” from last year. And I agree that their talent base has gotten better.
But does that mean their record will be better? Are we going to assume now the team will win 105 games? 107?
2009 was a magical season. For example, that team had more walk off wins than any other in franchise history. Do we really want to feel confident that they will match or break that kind of record two years in a row?
And I’d say a similar thing for the Sox. I’m not sure how they’ve “improved” per se in terms of record. I think they’ve changed the skill sets on their team and may have added some more talent, but it’s more a trade off than a dramatic improvement.
Nonetheless they looked to be around a 95 win team going into 2009 and they wound up winning around 95 games. Going into next season they probably will project to win around 95 games again.
So it’s not so much an issue of the Sox adding talent that I’m concerned about.
The issue is that the yankees are likely to regress either due to injury or underperformance.
The probability of them winning 103 games again isn’t very good.
Tom-
I like yours but I think this is really the essential GB :
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wi.....n_1935.jpg
Jesus. This board is full of clowns like Randy, Tom and MTU. What a sad state of affairs.
I’m actually more accustomed to LPCs.
“Come on, I would LOVE for Raines to get in, and I would personally vote for him… but do you think there’s a chance in hell of him jumping from 22.6% last year to 75% this year?”
——————————————————-
it is a case of what should be. Not necessarily will be.
any baseball player in history who was both great and consistent, should be in the HOF
fangraph projections have gardner at 2.0-2.7 war
damon at 2.2 in 2010
in 2009 damon was a 3.0 war player
gardner 2.1
i am not sure there is a fa outfielder available now that gives us enough of an upgrade over gardner especially when you factor in salaries
if gardner can put up a 2 war he is valued at about 7-8 million
the market seems to be settling at 3.5-4 million per win
i just don’t see damon coming back because of his defense
they also didn’t predict ben zobrist to contribute the most war
Those are nice cars, MTU. No doubt about that.
I just see GB’s style as more of a “Mad Max”…
HOF- I would like to see Jack Morris make it. As a kid in the 80′s, he was definitely a guy I saw as a big-time pitcher (along with others). I know the ‘win’ stat is losing its prominence, but he always knew what it took to win a game. 1-0 or 7-5. Kind of like Pettitte.
The yankees, on paper, should win 98 – 103 (or more) games. Obviously, they have to play the games. But on paper, there’s no other team in the AL that will apporach that win total.
I think the Yanks/Sox “rivalry” is one of the biggest bright shiny objects in sports.
They haven’t met in the playoffs since 04 (and by league rules can’t until the ALCS) and unless you count 2008 when Tampa was the outlier, most years the Sox and Yanks are playing 162 games for homefield and 1st round match-ups.
At the end of the day, the Sox can improve considerably, but it still might not mean a thing until you get into the crapshoot that’s the postseason.
Stuckey, what word should I use? Inexpensive? Fine – that’s semantics. I think Hinske would have been a perfect player off the bench for them…..I’m not calling them cheap by any means, but take a look at the bench and tell me the Yankees are not going with inexpensive options over proven ones.
Sorry, but, there are better, more pitchers worthy HOF than Jack Morris.
Stuckey, I’ve looked at the numbers a little more also. I guess the thing is that Gardner COULD perform to a similar level as Dejesus but the sample size is much smaller and therefore more risk would be involved with Gardner. You kinda know what you’re getting more with Dejesus. The question is as you pointed out, how much would you have to give up to get Dejesus and would that loss outweigh the chance you take on Gardner playing to that level. I don’t know the answer to thay question.
If Dawson makes it, they have to take the vote away from the writers.
“He’s not worth that the $$$ and years the Cards gave him..”
Holliday’s worth to St. Louis is exactly what they paid him. It has nothing to do with what other teams gave other players.
The worth was there for them or else they would have passed on him just like the other 29 teams did.
If walks had as much value as you seem to think, Eddie Yost would have been in the HOF 40 years ago.
“fangraph projections have gardner at 2.0-2.7 war
damon at 2.2 in 2010″
That’s because fangraphs does not include error terms for their estimates of WAR.
Gardner and Damon’s estimated performance are not equivalent because there is far more expected variance in Gardner’s projection because 1) most of his value is derived from small samples; 2) the vast majority of his value comes from UZR data and those projections don’t include UZR related measurement error nor do they model potential variation in UZR.
This is a similar issue to how one would project the Sox vs. the Yankees next year.
There is significantly more uncertainty in the Sox projected performance next year than the yankees because the Sox are trying to win so much by defense.
The numbers aren’t equivalent.
CB
January 6th, 2010 at 10:24 am
“I just don’t see how the Sox have made up THAT much ground on the Yankees. The Yankees were a much better team last year and they’ve improved this year. The Sox have improved as well, but not THAT much.”
This isn’t primarily an issue of the Sox getting better. It’s an issue of the yankees being unlikely to win as many games as they did last year because 103 win seasons just aren’t all that common – especially in the AL East.
People keep saying the yankees have “improved” from last year. And I agree that their talent base has gotten better.
But does that mean their record will be better? Are we going to assume now the team will win 105 games? 107?
2009 was a magical season. For example, that team had more walk off wins than any other in franchise history. Do we really want to feel confident that they will match or break that kind of record two years in a row?
And I’d say a similar thing for the Sox. I’m not sure how they’ve “improved” per se in terms of record. I think they’ve changed the skill sets on their team and may have added some more talent, but it’s more a trade off than a dramatic improvement.
Nonetheless they looked to be around a 95 win team going into 2009 and they wound up winning around 95 games. Going into next season they probably will project to win around 95 games again.
So it’s not so much an issue of the Sox adding talent that I’m concerned about.
The issue is that the yankees are likely to regress either due to injury or underperformance.
The probability of them winning 103 games again isn’t very good.
———————————————————
i’ll take 97 wins if the rs win 95
“i’ll take 97 wins if the rs win 95″
Sure. But those are only estimates. Should the Red Sox overperform their estimate some and the yankees underperform some….
Again, a good question for people to ask themselves is how likely will it be for the yankees to win as many walk off games as they did last year this year. How sustainable is that?
Walks have always had the same value. You get a base and don’t make an out.
I’ve got to agree with CB on that. Walk-off wins and all one run wins flucuate wildly from year to year.
CB
January 6th, 2010 at 10:49 am
“i’ll take 97 wins if the rs win 95?
Sure. But those are only estimates. Should the Red Sox overperform their estimate some and the yankees underperform some….
Again, a good question for people to ask themselves is how likely will it be for the yankees to win as many walk off games as they did last year this year. How sustainable is that?
———————————————————
i agree
not too sustainable
as long as we win 1 more game i am happy unless they get the wc & beat us
especially considering we set the walk off record i believe
pretty good chance we fall off
The amount of walk off wins and pie throwing will not occur as much in 2010.
The better way is to have enough insurance runs by the 7th or 8th inning and take pressure off the bullpen.
It’s not “showing up” a team for putting up a 5 spot in late innings. It’s a sheer desire to win.
Good teams know when to put an opponent away.
The Yankees have the key ingredients with patient hitters, and innings eaters to not overwork the bullpen.
I’d rather have a hitter that produces the runs rather than walking and hoping a lesser bat does the job.
There are 3 hitters in the history of baseball with 300+ homers, 300+ steals and 1500+ RBI. Dawson is one of them. That’s HOF quality.
Add defense to Dawson’s resume. He played center and right fields like Ozzie Smith played shortstop.
“Again, a good question for people to ask themselves is how likely will it be for the yankees to win as many walk off games as they did last year this year. How sustainable is that?”
The first question that has to be asked were the Yankees involved in MORE tied in the 9th or later situations than average.
The question of how many they are expected to win takes a backseat to how many they’re expected to be IN at all.
I don’t know the answer to the question, but the above question is useless until it’s answered.
SJ, that’s true…….and it’s also true that Hinske hardly played at all while with the Yankees. There was a stretch where I wondered if he even existed, lol.
I suspect there’s just too much time on my hands between now and the start of the season and I’m getting itchy. Craw, good points as well. ST should be interesting, what with the youngsters fighting for positions on the bench, in the pen and even in the rotation.
CB, I don’t really believe in magic; the Yankees won because they were a really good team, not because destiny shined her spotlight on them. Will they have as many walk-offs? Probably not, but maybe they’ll win those games without going into the bottom of the 9th or extra innings. That said, I would never predict another 100 win season simply because that’s hard to do even in a weak division. It’s enough for me to say that the Yankees appear to be the best team in baseball again and let the chips fall as they may. I expect the Sox to be very good as they always are; at this point, it’s a matter of degree.
The number of walkoff wins definitely won’t happen again.
Nor will guys all of a sudden become more than they are as players just because they put on a Red Sox uniform.
I think the problem some of us have is the way so many people overvalue every Red Sox acquisition.
Every time the Red Sox sign someone, you would think they signed a Hall of Fame player.
Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre are not difference maker type of players. Both are wildly overvalued by some on here.
Neither player is as good a player as Curtis Granderson.
Nor is John Lackey that much better (if at all) than Javy Vasquez.
What the Red Sox are doing is pretty obvious. They are looking to win the 2010 off-season and are putting their efforts (by clearing the decks of as many contracts as possible in the meantime after this season) into that.
2010? Sure, they would like to win and if a lot of things break right for them, they can.
However, with the team they have assembled thus far, its a tall order.
They need David Ortiz to be the 2004-2008 David Ortiz.
They need their starters to stay healthy all year.
They need some other guys (Cameron and Drew for example) to outperform their recent numbers.
They need Victor Martinez to stay healthy and be able to catch everyday. Something Cleveland thought wasn’t possible at this point in his career.
Absent those things, they can have all the defense they want, they aren’t winning 95 games.
Phil the Thrill
January 6th, 2010 at 10:40 am
If Dawson makes it, they have to take the vote away from the writers.
WOW! Andre Dawson was an awesome player. Especially when he played with the Expos. He was a great CF (won gold gloves every year from 1980 to 1988 except 86), with tremendous power and speed and an arm that was as good as any that played. He played on some bad teams, but he was a star. First season on a good team (1987 Cubs) he markedly improved. He declined somewhat after 88 with knee injuries, but was still a feared hitter. I believe he belongs in HOF! Just think of Rice with a glove, arm & speed.
It took Dawson too many tries to get his numbers. He’s no Hall of Famer. And pulling out some quinella of counting stats isn’t gonna clean up his rate stats, one of which SUCKED.
Ray,
Ric shouldn’t have made it either. If Dawson goes in today, they really have to change the voting.
As far as the R Sox go, I believe they improved quite a bit. Their defense is better, but that is like saying they are the tallest midget. SS is still weak, and so is C. CF is above league average, but I’m not a fan of Cameron.
The unknown for Boston is how will the newcomers play in Fenway. I think Fenway helps their hitters, especially Martinez and probably Beltre. Last year Boston maxed out on Fenway wins and probably won’t improve there. The road games come more into play and I believe they are not improved for those IMO. I do like the addition of Lackey.
“If Dawson makes it, they have to take the vote away from the writers”
————————————————–
kinda curious. How old are you?
whichever the case. I disagree. If Dawson doesn’t make it, Cooperstown should be vandalized
blake, agreed, but one would suspect that the Royals would want back something. Despite impression, I honestly don’t think it’s the organizations strategy to assemble a AAAA roster, and I suspect that’s all most fans would be cool with giving up.
That said, my theme has always been Gardner will likely not prove the difference between the Yanks qualifying for the post-season or not, and if during the first 1 to 100 or so games it appears as he could be the difference, then it can still be addressed with time to spare.
The actual “risk” of throwing him out there for at just the first few months at least seems SO low, its easy to conclude the fixation with replacing him is merely a product of off-season boredom and not due to any actual imperative.
I’m merely adding occasional reminders of that reality.
SJ, are the Sox counting on getting at least 2 or 3 of Mauer (if he’s available), Lee and some other big bat (not sure who’s a FA next year – maybe they’ll trade their farm for Gonzalez)? Mauer is probably going to re-sign in Minny, but if he doesn’t, you know the Yankees will go all out for him. I guess my question is this: if they don’t make a HUGE splash next season, are they going to have to populate their roster with more free agent signings (even if they aren’t huge names)?
Boston puts too much reliance on what the team does at the Green Sardine Can. There’s also 81 road games which puts them in their periodic funks.
To hear their delusional fans talk, the Socks play 120 games in their home dump.
Their newer players like Beltre and Cameron will have to adjust their swings from home and road. Lackey will have to pitch to corners at home.
In addition to the walkoffs, IIRC, the Yankees also won an unusually high number of games in which they had to come from behind. A lot of that is testament to A) the Yankees being able to get to teams’ bullpens and B) the Yankees’ bullpen being quite effective in keeping games within reach. But there’s also some good fortune involved (Right, Mr. Castillo?). Can’t come from behind without first falling behind. Perhaps the enhanced starting rotation will minimize the need to come from behind as often they did last season.
“Absent those things, they can have all the defense they want, they aren’t winning 95 games.”
sj44-
totally agree.
what’s surprising is that they are approaching the yankees in total salary with 170 million.
yes if a lot of things go right they could win more than 95 games, but the team just seems put together very piecemeal.
of course maybe they are not trying to beat the yankees and just want to beat everyone else and get the wildcard.
GreenBeret7
January 6th, 2010 at 10:58 am
Add defense to Dawson’s resume. He played center and right fields like Ozzie Smith played shortstop.
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Really? I didn’t realize Dawson was so acrobatic or that Ozzie had a cannon arm.
Both were terrific defenders but in very different ways.
vinny-b
what’s your IQ?
Guys with .323 career on base percentages don’t belong in the Hall of Fame.
If Bert Blyleven DOES, finally, get in, one can only hope that there is a Telestrator handy during his speeech,so he can be ‘circled’!
“Really? I didn’t realize Dawson was so acrobatic or that Ozzie had a cannon arm.
Both were terrific defenders but in very different ways”
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(vinny-b looking for cover)
Frank
January 6th, 2010 at 11:14 am
But there’s also some good fortune involved (Right, Mr. Castillo?).
***************
LOL. I don’t think I’ll ever forget that game. I can still hear Kay: “he dropped the ball! he dropped the ball!”
“What the Red Sox are doing is pretty obvious. They are looking to win the 2010 off-season and are putting their efforts (by clearing the decks of as many contracts as possible in the meantime after this season) into that.”
I agree. Independent of the rhetoric, I do think it’s likely that they were actually looking at 2010 as a “bridge” season – though that bridge wasn’t to players in the low minors as they were saying, but to free agents next winter.
Given that they had the choice to really punt on the season or see what they could do on short term deals. Defense first was the way they could give it a shot without tying up too much money into long term deals (though not punting on 2010 forced them to sign Lackey to a deal that is outside of what they probably would have liked to do).
They are a team that with significant risk both in terms of talent and in terms of the strategic direction they’ve moved in.
That said, that doesn’t change the fact that many yankee fans are also implicitly assuming that the 2010 yankees baseline expectations are that they’ve built on a 103 win team and as such are basically invincible.
“Guys with .323 career on base percentages don’t belong in the Hall of Fame”
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nevermind. You anwered my question. Carry on
vinny-b (NJ and Granderson – thank you Cashman!)
January 6th, 2010 at 11:11 am
“If Dawson makes it, they have to take the vote away from the writers”
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kinda curious. How old are you?
whichever the case. I disagree. If Dawson doesn’t make it, Cooperstown should be vandalized
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Borderline. Dawson did make a lot of outs and his RBI’s benefitted a great deal from batting behind Raines in the same way that Rice did batting behind Boggs (and often Dewey).
Could go either way on Dawson. However, players like him (the bordeline calls) are what makes the HOF for me. After all, I don’t need a HOF to let me know that Mantle, Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, etc. stood out above the rest. But for guys like Dawson, the HOF would change the perception of them.
Raines was a much better player than Dawson.
Oh, and vinny,
I had already graduated college when the idiot writers gave Dawson his MVP award.
Joe Vogel
January 6th, 2010 at 11:14 am
GreenBeret7
January 6th, 2010 at 10:58 am
Add defense to Dawson’s resume. He played center and right fields like Ozzie Smith played shortstop.
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Really? I didn’t realize Dawson was so acrobatic or that Ozzie had a cannon arm.
Both were terrific defenders but in very different ways.
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You and the other Bill James Jr need to go back to your fantasy baseball teams. That’s all you understand. God help the truly talented ball players like Dawson if the Bill James lovers ever take over the world. He’s growing a real crop of idiots.
GB,
Sorry I’ve been away for a few days working on briefs. I see that you’re still putting in 16 hour days, 7 days a week on the blog as the resident Joe Schultz from Ball Four.
I only wish I could have the opportunity to see in person your uncanny eye for talent, because by God you just know talent when you see it.
How many Fortune 500 companies are lining up to secure the services of you gut instincts?
“Gardner and Damon’s estimated performance are not equivalent because there is far more expected variance in Gardner’s projection because 1) most of his value is derived from small samples; 2) the vast majority of his value comes from UZR data and those projections don’t include UZR related measurement error nor do they model potential variation in UZR.”
True, but uncertainty goes in both directions. Just as Gardner might perform substantially worse than his projected WAR, he might perform substantially better. That’s why I want him to play regularly. That’s the only way we’ll find out just how good (or bad) he is.
“In addition to the walkoffs, IIRC, the Yankees also won an unusually high number of games in which they had to come from behind. A lot of that is testament to A) the Yankees being able to get to teams’ bullpens and B) the Yankees’ bullpen being quite effective in keeping games within reach.”
Agreed. Some people argue that 1 run games and late inning come back wins are largely random outcomes. But that wasn’t the case for the 2009 yankees. There were systematic reasons related to the skill sets of the players as to why they won so many late inning games: 1) They knocked the starting pitcher out of the game early; 2) They had tremendous power; 3)The yanks had good starting pitching that game them length more times than not; 4) They have Mo (which allows them to consistently outperform their expected record); 5) They had a terrific pen around Mo and Hughes was phenomenal
So there’s no reason to expect them to essentially play .500 ball in those situations as you would if the outcomes were truly random
That said, even with those systematic strengths, there is some component of randomness in those kinds of games (and Castillo is a great example of that…). And in 2009 many of those factors seemed to break in the yankees direction.
Can’t count on that in 2010. They’ll still be the best team in baseball barring injury but you can’t expect them to be a 100+ win team. I hope they are but I just don’t set that as a baseline expectation.
So I really hope the fan base doesn’t start pegging the 2010 teams as being “unclutch” and not having as much “heart” as the 2009 team if they don’t produce those kind of dramatic wins.
“Borderline. Dawson did make a lot of outs and his RBI’s benefitted a great deal from batting behind Raines in the same way that Rice did batting behind Boggs (and often Dewey).
Could go either way on Dawson. However, players like him (the bordeline calls) are what makes the HOF for me. After all, I don’t need a HOF to let me know that Mantle, Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, etc. stood out above the rest. But for guys like Dawson, the HOF would change the perception of them”
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what-up, Joe. Good to see you. How much snow do you have on the ground?
fair enough. A mistake people make in judging Dawson is they look at his stats and believe they can make an intelligent determination. In short, Dawson dominated in his days. He was a 5-tool dominant player. Instead “geniuses” who never viewed him lay back with their laptops, pocket protectors, and horn-rimmed gl@sses, and try to compare his numbers to players from a different era. One cannot compare Dawson’s numbers to his contemporaries in the 1990′s-2000′s. They were different eras. Andre Dawson was a great 5-tool player. And a consistent one
I don’t think that’s true, CB; I don’t know many Yankee fans who think the team is invincible. They just think the Yankee are better than the Sox and they have faith in the team. They could be as good this year as next and still not win close to a 103 games. Record in a way doesn’t mean very much. A team in the NL Central may win 95 games because the division isn’t that great, but a team in the AL East may “only” win 92 or 93 and still be considered better (and, may not make the playoffs). I don’t chalk up last year to magic – doing so implies the Yankees didn’t earn their title so much as they were lucky and it also implies they can’t do it again. I say, why not? This isn’t a Cinderella team that’s a one-year wonder. The Yankees are an well-put together, talented team.
Dawson and Raines only played together for 6 years. Who else are you going to credit for Dawson’s numbers.
There seems to be a tendency by some on here to undervalue the team the Red Sox are putting together.
I think this is to some extent due to the fact that the Sox are no longer the team that had Manny and a potent Ortiz (both long time Yankee killers) in the heart of the lineup, have lost Jason Bay (an excellent hitter and a Yankee killer in his own right for the short period of time he was on the Sox) and have no place to play Lowell (another Yankee killer).
However, the Sox have put together another kind of team that will score a lot of runs, even if they aren’t going to be coming from HRs to the extent they used to. They will have excellent to decent OBP up and down the lineup and they won’t have any bad hitters in any spot in the lineup the way they did last year.
Their rotation is shaping up to be as good as ours, and their pen may actually be even a little better than ours.
Last year, we were 8 games better than the Sox in the actual standings. On a pythagorean basis, and despite our “lucky” walk-off wins, we were actually about 10 games better. So the Sox have a big gap to make up on us.
2010 though, isn’t 2009. You should never assume the previous year will predict what happens in the next year.
CB is probably right, that the Sox project out to be about a 95 win team for 2010. I’m guessing, but I expect right now we project to about a 98 win team. That’s close enough that the inherent randomness in sport, baseball in particular, gives the Sox a good shot.
And for all the bad things you can say will happen to the Sox, an equal number of bad things can happen to the Yanks.
So I say, never be complacent, and never assume the Yanks are better. Root for the Yanks to sign Damon or Nady.
Color me not impressed by the Red Sox acquisitions. Beltre and Cameron will strike out a ton. Trading them essentially for Bay and Lowell is a loss in my opinion.
Their signings have the potential to get ugly with the Red Sox fanbase if they strike out and perform they way they have been in recent years.
Lackey is a very good pitcher, but you’re still talking about a guy who has constant arm issues. If he’s Andy Pettitte and can pitch with and through pain, it’s one thing.
But it seems to me that he’s very open about his injury status with his team and takes a cautious/sensible approach when it comes to pain.
That means they paid 82 million for a 140-160 inning starter. He’s not a horse in the traditional sense.
So if he loses some starts to injury you’re talking about Wakfield or Tazawa as the immediate replacement. The problem with the downgrade there is the offense is also downgraded and the offensive force and heroics of Lowell and Bay are gone and replaced by players with no history with the team who strike out a lot.
Theo did a nice patch job and I agree he is looking forward to next off season with his eye fixed on Mauer.
I just have a feeling that Mauer ends the speculation and re-signs in Minny. Maybe the thrill of opening the new park and watching the fans there support the team will get him ready to put an end to it or maybe the guy just doesn’t want any part of being a Red Sox or a Yankee.
It just doesn’t feel like he’s a player on the move to me.
If he resigns than the Red Sox are really in trouble. After another season their overhyped prospects might not perform well at the upper levels and lose their shine like Lars Anderson did this past year.
They’ll be scrambling to come up with the good to trade for Gonzales while other teams may have more impressive prospects to offer.
I’m sure Boston will win their share of games and keep it competitive, but I don’t think they made their team better.
The difference between us and them is if a starting pitcher goes down here, our offense can help to carry us through it.
I don’t think the same could be said for them.
“True, but uncertainty goes in both directions. Just as Gardner might perform substantially worse than his projected WAR, he might perform substantially better.”
That true in one sense, but not the issue I was referring to.
First, the measurement error associated with UZR is much, much higher than it is with say wOBA. As such if you have two players who have the same projected WAR but one does it primarily with his bat and the other primarily with his glove, the player with the bat is the more valuable asset because he has less associated variance in expected performance and that means he has less risk.
Second, UZR data still varies significantly from season to season. That also adds more variance to the expected WAR of players who primarily generate value with the glove.
I was referring to these methodological issues that create risk rather than Gradner’s growth curve, for instance.
CB, by the way – I wasn’t directing that to you, but I’ve seen people describe last season as magical and I’ve never liked that description. By that token, any WS team has had a magical season.
Unfortunately, I think you hit on something….the 2010 team will definitely be unfairly compared to 2009 if things don’t play out exactly as they did (particularly since Melky and Matsui, and probably Damon) are gone. I mention Melky because it’s hard to believe, but the fan base seems ticked off that the Yankees traded him. Many fans already can’t stomach Vasquez and they think Melky is a huge part of team chemistry (they also seem to think he’s better than he is based on his walk off hits). I think fans are very worried (at least some are) about the chemistry being different – they really loved the 2009 team’s personality. I’m not worried- we brought in good guys and we still have the core four, Tex, CC, AJ, Swish, etc..
CB-
if teixeira or sabathia misses a significant amount of 2010 due to injury, that puts the yankees back where they were before they got them. i think those two have changed the dynamic between the two teams.
injuries happen like with wang and alex last year and are always a variable,but the red sox have as much chance as the yankees at getting a major injury. if the two teams have matching loss of players due to injury , i think the yankees stay ahead like last year.
it gets down to a probability thing. there are things that could happen that would make the red sox the better team, but off the top of my head i think it’s only a 20 % chance.
“That means they paid 82 million for a 140-160 inning starter. He’s not a horse in the traditional sense.”
Perhaps, but unlikely. Lackey has never pitched that few innings in his entire career, other than his rookie season.
Vinny:
Good morning! A couple of feet although it’s “warmed up” to 25 today (from around 0) and is supposed to be dumping another 10 inches of powder thru tomorrow with wind gusts. The high Friday is supposed to be -7 plus the wind chill.
In regards to Dawson, I liked him as a player. Clearly I think Raines was better (for that matter so was Strawberry up until age 29, Dale Murphy in his prime, and possibly Dwight Evans). Conversely, I would have put Dawson in before Rice who benefitted tremendously from playing in Fenway and his supporting cast (Hell, I still believe Dewey was better than Rice).
In sum, I would lean towards induction, but I wouldn’t be bothered if he was denied (Clearly there are inferior players to him in the HOF, but I don’t see this as a justification for electing him. You know, the “at least this mistake wasn’t so bad line of thinking”).
“So I say, never be complacent, and never assume the Yanks are better. Root for the Yanks to sign Damon or Nady.”
This is the bottom line in terms of action items. The yankees are clearly the best team in baseball and clearly have the highest probability of winning.
But the yankees would do well to upgrade LF because of the inherent random aspects of baseball. They should give themselves some more cushion to play with because they can pick up a few wins in LF and decrease their risk at hopefully a reasonable cost.
Few players benefitted from Fenway more than Evans, Petrocelli and Boggs. Rice could reach any seat in any park.
“it gets down to a probability thing. there are things that could happen that would make the red sox the better team, but off the top of my head i think it’s only a 20 % chance.”
randy,
I think that’s a good estimate. If the 2010 season could be played 1000 times it would be reasonable to say the yankees would win the division 75%-80% of the time.
But the season is only played once. And 20% is not insignificant.
The Sox have become a less multi-dimensional team and they are counting on statistical aspects of the game that have significant variability. That’s not a great recipe to best this yankee team – but it gives them some shot.
I do think they were faced with the prospect of really punting on 2010 or trying to put together some shot of winning the division through a strategy which gives them long term flexibility.
They did trade the present for the future this year. Their farm system has gone dry in terms of producing power hitters and that’s the problem they’re facing now.
If Joe Mauer resigns with the Twins that will hurt them a great deal.
(new post)
Edgar Martinez was probably my favorite non-Yankee – it was amazing what he did with basically one eye….
nick johnson & matsui were both at 2.4 war in 2009
cg 3.4 war in 2009
melky 1.6 war in 2009
damon 3.0 war in 2009
gardner 2.1 war in 2009
in 2010 fg has vazquez at 4.9 war & joba at 2.7
in 2009 jv was a 6.6 war player & joba 1.5
fg has lackey at 3.9 war in 09
& 3.8 war in 2010
they have vazquez at 6.6 in 2009
4.9 war in 2010