Notes from here and there
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 07, 2010 
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On Sunday, Sam wrote that it’s hard to imagine the NHL’s Winter Classic coming to Yankee Stadium in 2011. It seems he’s not the only one who sees it that way.
The Record reported today that the NHL and ESPN are ready to look elsewhere, with Citi Field “the only other site that will be considered.” Playing the hockey game at Yankee Stadium is problematic because of the college football bowl game that will be played in December.
A few other notes from around the Internet:
• Our good friend Pete Abraham has heard the Yankees are out of the Aroldis Chapman bidding, but notes that he wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees go after the young lefty. Pete also wrote that Chien-Ming Wang, “has told friends he is prepared to move on from the Yankees.”
• Speaking of Chapman, I still think it’s hard to read much into any of this speculation about where he might sign. Yesterday there were conflicting reports about the Marlins (one saying Florida was making a push, another saying they conceeded defeat). Today, it was conflicting Angels rumors (pro and con) making the rounds.
• Peter Gammons did a chat in which he speculated that Johnny Damon might not be completely off the Yankees’ radar. “I keep thinking that if Damon cant find a job at 2 yrs. and a total of $20 million that perhaps he’ll come back to the Yankees for one or two years and then hit the market next fall,” Gammons wrote.
• The terms of Eric Hinske’s contract with the Braves: One year deal, $1 million with $500,000 in incentives.
This whole JD episode is looking more like a replay of the AP epsiode from last year(I hope with the same final result).
People getting antsy. All that’s missing is a WYH vs SJ debate.
Angels are right in the thick of the fog for Chapman…..
GB7-I forgot to say Tyne festival is at Zilker Park.
Sign Damon!!!
Damon for one year makes sense.
Damon for two yeas is lunacy.
Please don’t post news reported by Pete. He’s a two faced loser, the blog is much better now.
Has Gammons been right yet this off season?
“Like a circle in a spiral
Like a wheel within a wheel
Never ending or beginning,
On an ever spinning wheel
As the images unwind
Like the circle that you find
In the windmills of your mind”
Buster olney said that the Yankees were out on Chapmam so you know it has to be true.
Tony C January 7th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
Errors is not a good stat when judging defense.
Really?
——————–
Yes. UZR and range factor are far better stats, errors tell you next to nothing.
If colt doesn’t get back in there this games gonna get ugly in a hurry. Ingrams a stud.
Damon for one year makes sense.
Damon for two yeas is lunacy.
————————————————-
Damon for one year as DH makes sense.
Damon for any time in LF is lunacy.
It seems to me the Yankees are content to play the get out too early rather than too late game with Damon.
The guy did lose a LOT defensively, and had an awful September.
And what if he signs a one year deal on the cheap and struggles. You think he or his agent is going to take sitting him down or platooning very easy?
Cashman had it right, Damon is a THE last guy you want to bring back on your terms when he feel he deserves his terms. There is a chance of him not only not performing, but becoming a major distraction if he doesn’t and the Yanks want to do something about it.
Get out while the getting is good.
“Please don’t post news reported by Pete. He’s a two faced loser, the blog is much better now.”
Please don’t tell Chad what to post. He can post whatever he feels is newsworthy.
Grande P
January 7th, 2010 at 9:16 pm
Sign Damon!!!
====
I’ll say.
They give up their best pitching prospect for a year of Javy Vasquez so they can strengthen the rotation for another run, rather than saying:
“We won, so now let’s really focus on kicking some a** for the next 5 years.”
I don’t think balking on left field and letting it gape is getting with the program of succumbing to short-term pressures.
And as bad as Johnny is defensively, it’s foolish to be cavalier about what he brings to the lineup.
“I’m confused as to why they were so concerned with Matsui and Damon staying healthy, but have no problem signing NIck “Just call me Mr. DL” Johnson. Makes no sense.”
Sure it makes sense. NJ is younger and cheaper and perhaps they think he’s a better bet to stay healthy moving forward.
blake
January 7th, 2010 at 9:23 pm
Buster olney said that the Yankees were out on Chapmam so you know it has to be true.
====
Right
“Damon for any time in LF is lunacy.”
Offense/defense he will likely produce more than any other realistic option.
Cashman’s motto:
If you wait long enough anything is possible.
He has the luxury of time as his ally.
The Yankees should sign Damon to one year 7 Million with a no sulking clause. If you sulk then you lose 3 million.
I suspect Gammons’ comment about supposed Yankee interest in Damon is baloney. I think it was made to help Boras get a bigger contract from whatever team eventually signs Damon.
Blake-
You don’t have a lisp do you ?
David-
Isn’t that usually Heyman’s job ?
This sulking stuff won’t be an issue on this team.
I think he’ll be back and everything will work out fine.
Austinmac
January 7th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
GB7-I forgot to say Tyne festival is at Zilker Park.
————————————————————
Thanks, Mac. If you hear of any broadcasts or dvds, let me know, please, even a radio/internet feed would be fine. Thanks for the info.
A-Rod’s new girlfriend is smokin’
GB-
Click on the link below, or enter it into your browser.
http://members.tripod.com/piro_maniac/FARSIDE/
Look at numbers 21, and 45.
They both reminded me of you.
Sean Ryan, I just want to say that I completely agree with you.
I don’y give a crap who ARod does.
Just sign Damon and we can start the season.
what is “hockey”?
For that matter, I also agree with Sean Ryan.
Regarding Damon, I think there’s a very good chance he signs with us come ST. Offensively and defensively he’s the best betto give us the most value. If he bombs for some reason he becomes a great bench option and Gardy starts.
GB-
Not 45, 49. sorry.
what is “hockey”?
How about them Devils! They’re just having a really outstanding season.
“Damon for one year makes sense.
Damon for two yeas is lunacy.”
———–
sure, one year is better. but lunacy?
cmon now.
Damon just finished 4 outstanding years with the Yankees. I realize the likelihood of decline is much higher now… but he has given little reason for us to believe he won’t be productive for 2 more years.
In an ideal world, he’d be able to DH 50% of the time, but he wasn’t terrible in the field. I believe he was league average. That’s hardly “lunacy”
As long as Boston doesn’t get Chapman, I can live with it.
I’d really like the Yanks to take a chance on him at the rumored price (5yrs/$20M) but I’m certainly not expecting it.
I trust their scouts though (they know a heck of a lot more than I do). If they don’t like the guy, so be it.
if the market stays cool toward damon’s expectations, he and his agent will become more reasonable. then we can strike a deal.
Boston Dave-No, he was horrifically bad in the field. His UZR was -9.2.
But two years would be fine. Just play him in LF this year, with time off whenever for DH, and make him the DH only next year.
“sure, one year is better. but lunacy?
cmon now.”
Given the Yankees pre-existing salary commitments for 2011, the new contracts for Jeter and Mo (which will likely be higher than they should be), a great FA class, and that the Yankees will want to keep their payroll at or near $200m, lunacy probably understates it.
I could live with Boston gettng Chapman. He’s just a prospect, and one who several scouts say has mopre flaws than people think. He’s innaccurate and his fastball, while above average, isn’t the 99 that’s expected.
“But two years would be fine. Just play him in LF this year, with time off whenever for DH, and make him the DH only next year.”
Apart from the payroll issues I mentioned, if Damon is the DH, where will a 40 year old Posada play?
It depends on how Posada plays this year. If he stays relatively healthy, he’ll probably catch a hundred games, then you just rotate him in with Damon.
“It depends on how Posada plays this year. If he stays relatively healthy, he’ll probably catch a hundred games, then you just rotate him in with Damon.”
100 games at 40, mmmm….k.
The payroll issues moot it anyway.
Damon isn’t getting two years here.
Hey Pat — How are you this fine evening? What is your take on Chapman?
200 mil is the payroll this year.
If they want Damon, they’ll get him.
I think if JoPo satys realtively healthy 100 games is possible and not unreasonable.
Damon is pretty bad at this point in left.
The problem is, he can’t run the ball down in the gap any more.
Nonetheless, I want the bat.
“200 mil is the payroll this year.”
It has gone down the last two years.
They don’t want him for two years.
You can’t plan on it.
Damon isn’t getting two years here.
===
Which is why this whole sulking fear is unfounded; he’ll be playing for another contract.
just heard on the radio, the yankees signed fernando tatis.
“Boston Dave-No, he was horrifically bad in the field. His UZR was -9.2. ”
But can you really draw that inference from that data?
In general it supposedly takes around 400 put out chances for UZR data to stabilize.
Over Damon’s past 400 put out attempts, in LF his cumulative UZR is +5.
Pete’s new gig is a tough slog.
Damon only started 128 games in OF in 2009, and played poorly defensively. How many games do you reasonably think he could start in of in 2010? Then calculate the innings he won’t play because he’ll be lifted for defensive purposes and he plays less that 1/2 the innings for the year. And you want to pay him $7m for that?
damon is done in the OF. not only is his range gone, but how many balls hit off his glove and landed fair or went between his legs last year. his defense has fallen off tremendously over the last 2 years and if that decline continues, you can forget putting him in the OF at all.
Does anyone know if CC on Jay Leno is a repeat of his November 6 appearance?
“Which is why this whole sulking fear is unfounded; he’ll be playing for another contract.”
And since he’s playing for another contract whst if the Yanks decide they need to sit him?
It’s not sulking to be concerned about, it’s complaining.
If Damon comes back it will be with his eyes wide open. He knows that his teammates won’t tolerate malcontents.
After Jeter listened to people knocking his defense all last offseason he went and improved it, wonder if Damon might do the same after his defense has been discussed so much this offseason and after it has cost him millions of dollars.
If they can get Damon for 7 million/1 year then I’d do it, you would think he’d be motivated to prove people wrong next season.
blake
I would like to see Damon get his vision checked.
Damon’s defense in left has definitely regressed to Daniel Murphy-esque levels (routine plays becoming adventures, etc.), but what I really want to know is what the hell was up w/all of those broken bats?
It seemed like 3 out of every 4 at-bats led to a broken bat w/him. Did he ever consider trying a different model or manufacturer?
I’m sure he lost scores of solid line drives and possibly even HRs due to that issue.
I would like to see Damon get his vision checked.
______________________________________________________
good idea, but that doesn’t help his legs and knees, the reason why he only started 128 games in OF in 2009.
Rich in NJ
January 7th, 2010 at 10:02 pm
“It depends on how Posada plays this year. If he stays relatively healthy, he’ll probably catch a hundred games, then you just rotate him in with Damon.”
100 games at 40, mmmm….k.
The payroll issues moot it anyway.
Damon isn’t getting two years here.
————————————————————
So, you think that it’s not possible for Posada to catch over 100 games at age 30 or 40? Must be great having the answers to the future.
Hey Mack Brown, that’s what you get for running an option play w/a pocket passer.
It’s a damn shame really. This game is no longer watchable.
‘It’s not sulking to be concerned about, it’s complaining.’
That’s unfair. Damon has never done anything except gives his all. He plays hurt. He will run into anything to make a play.
You don’t want him, ok I get that. No reason to attack his character.
GB&
So, you think that it’s not possible for Posada to catch over 100 games at age 30 or 40? Must be great having the answers to the future.
As I said, in a subsequent post:
“You can’t plan on it.”
everything I write gets filtered.
Bronx Born…I know some baeball guys who saw Chapman pitch in San Diego last March, and he has a very live arm as everyone now knows…His mechanics are not much better than a kid pitching at the Junco level…..If I was to guess, he’ll end up as a closer………The Tide is Rolling in Pasadena…..Fog is rolling in here, however I don’t it be a factor in the Rose Bowl
Fisk was catching 100 games at 43 and had bad knees and bad back. He was still playing well defensively and hitting for power and average. Posada doesn’t have a bad back or knees.
ditto tarheel
damon has giving 100% every day and every stop in his career, its why his body is breaking down now, he crashed into walls and ran full-out all the way through.
i’ve been talking down johnny coming back but i never question johnny’s heart or his baseball iq, both of which are off-the-charts.
damon is a world class competitor, its just that like all of us he’s getting old and losing his atheletic ability.
Fisk was an extreme outlier.
Again, you can’t plan on a player remaining at C at Posada’s age. That means you don’t sign another player to be a DH more than a year in advance.
“damon is a world class competitor, its just that like all of us he’s getting old and losing his atheletic ability.”
Thats why you pay him less money, doesn’t mean he can’t still be valuable.
CCs on Leno right now
“everything I write gets filtered.”
blake,
G.Love pointed something out to me about the filter and ever since I have had many fewer problems.
It seems that the filter is set to block out any word which contains inside of it a “bad” work.
For example, there is a word that I would try to use frequently in my posts that is a synonym for “evaluation” (**sessment) that I believe was the primary reason my posts were getting blocked.
Rich in NJ
Well stated. Hopefully, JoPo will be able to, but it’s not something that can be relied upon or guaranteed.
I have no doubt that Johnny would give his all if he came back, as he surely will for his new team.
Pat M, I’m happy with the coming result in the BCS game, shame it had to happen this way, though… the poor frosh QB is in over his head.
No sympathy for Mack Brown, however… putz.
CB
LOL
I was just about to tell blake about as sessment. That is the way I am forced to type it to get it through.
CB, thanks..
I was trying to ask Rich what he thought Damon would look like in some Rick Vaughn spectacles..
Denzel vs CC in Yankees trivia, Denzel won 4-, on LENO
Denzel knows Yankees history!
“His mechanics are not much better than a kid pitching at the Junco level…..If I was to guess, he’ll end up as a closer……”
Pat M,
I think this is probably one of the single biggest issues teams are facing with Chapman.
He’s got a phenomenal arm. But if a team feels that there’s a fairly decent shot he might turn into a reliever then the deal makes no sense right off the bat.
If you feel good that he can start then that’s one thing. But if he’s only a reliever it’s tough to make the money work.
I’d really like the yanks to sign him. But if they feel that the risk of him being a reliever is high enough that the deal is too risky I’d understand that.
Chad and Sam
Can you unfilter the word A B R A H A M
There are players in the MLB with that name, and what if one day, the Yankees acquire a player with that name?
By the way, what about Melvin Mora for LF?
Hey it worked, I was using a synonym for spectacles… they should really work on that.
blake
So if the OF doesn’t work out and he is blocked at DH, make him as a LOOGY?
blake,
The “spectacle” issue has to be the reason! They really should work on fixing the filter. That shouldn’t be too difficult to do.
What’s the largest bonus that a drafted amateur player got who projected to be a reliever?
If there is a 25% chance Chapman is a successful starter, a 50% chance he is a successful reliever, and 25% chance he’s nothing, I say you take that chance if you’re the yankees.
The chance that is something special is there. He is very young with a great arm.
$20M for 5 years? Good setup men are making that money these days. How much did Brandon Lyon just get? or Fernando Rodney?
Cashman will bring in a LF by a trade, The FA options are poor
No way we enter the season with a Gardner/? platoon and a bum like Hoffman on the bench
Just say no, to Damon. He’s greed driven at this point!!
Rich in NJ
January 7th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
Fisk was an extreme outlier.
Again, you can’t plan on a player remaining at C at Posada’s age. That means you don’t sign another player to be a DH more than a year in advance.
————————————————————
I didn’t say anything about signing a DH for two years. Posada isn’t as beat up as a lot of players his age, catcher or not. He’ll still be catching over 100 games at age 40 unless there’s a catastrophic injury. I have as little concern about him as I do about Jeter’s health.
Ahhhhh, the crazy filters… I just figured out why it wouldn’t let me post the name Grah-am Parker… too close to A B R A H A M.
Rich, exactly.
Rich,
That’s a good question. Pure relievers just don’t get drafted very high.
In some ways I’d say the situation that might be somewhat closest to Chapman in this regard is Jeff Samardzija. There are some parallels there in terms of a guy with a live arm being very raw related to circumstance and experience whose future role was unclear.
The Cubs thought Samardzija would be a starter and had the potential to be a front line guy. They were wrong on both counts.
They signed him to a 5 year $10M major league deal in order to buy him out of his football career (think he was drafted in the 8th round?).
Samardzija is the best parallel to Chapman I can think of in terms of guys drafted in the U.S.
CB, The guys that I spoke with about him stated that he’d most likely after signing would go right to High A-Ball….And after adjusting to the rigors of Organized Ball, he could end up the season at the AA Level…..He needs work on many fronts before he hits the bigs….It’s more than just some tinkering adjustments……You’re right about clubs rethinking about where he’s best suited as to his role on a MLB Staff…..He does have a thunderbolt arm though….
GB7
“I didn’t say anything about signing a DH for two years. Posada isn’t as beat up as a lot of players his age, catcher or not. He’ll still be catching over 100 games at age 40 unless there’s a catastrophic injury. I have as little concern about him as I do about Jeter’s health.”
I did. That was the context of the point I made that you responded to.
re: Chapman. Isn’t this one of the areas that the Yankees should use their financial power? How often do they get a chance at a player that age with that arm through the draft.
Its a risk sure, but the reward could be much more than any financial burden it would put on the Yankees.
“$20M for 5 years? Good setup men are making that money these days. How much did Brandon Lyon just get? or Fernando Rodney?”
BD,
But you’re not factoring in the other big variable – how long is he going to be in the minors?
I think he’s an A ball pitcher. He very well could spend 3 years in the minors.
So effectively even with those odds you laid out it would really be $20M for two years of major league service. If he turned out to be even a major league average starter that would turn out ok. But that’s an expensive reliever. And that’s not even accounting for the probability that he never makes it.
Finally, the expense is actually greater than $20M because you have to factor in opportunity cost. That $20M could be used in the amateur draft, to sign more international kids or even at the major league level.
“Fisk was an extreme outlier.
Again, you can’t plan on a player remaining at C at Posada’s age. That means you don’t sign another player to be a DH more than a year in advance.”
rich in nj-
what can you plan on?
can you plan on mauer catching a whole season this year?
how about sabathia?
arod?
rivera will be 40 something . do you plan on him?
which player in mlb are you sure will play a full season?
i think it’s how you analyze the situation. instead of looking at all catchers who are 39 years old, i think you should look at all catchers who caught 100 games at age 38 and who had the offensive season posada had last year.
there won’t be many. fisk will probably be one.
rich in nj, you appear to be a bit agist. you seem to think all those 39 year olds are over the hill. there are 39 year olds and there are 39 year olds. posada may well have an age related injury in 2010, but based on 2009 he has a good chance to have a better year than the average mlb catcher.
matter of fact posada is so good he’ll likely have a better offensive year in 2010 than the young cervelli will ever have in his career.
you say fisk is an outlier.
posada isn’t?
how many times has he been on the disabled list?
that’s not an oulier?
the signs are there he’s an outlier like fisk if you look at it in the right way.
what did fisk do that made him an outlier ?
after games he worked his butt off with weights before anyone else did.
posada has been working out seriously for most of his career. i don’t think that 40 is a problem for him unless he has some kind of serious injury that could as easily happen to a young player.
it’s a fact that athletes age, but they don’t all age at the same rate.if they did, mariano wouldn’t be pitching this year.
CB
Which is about $5m less than what Strasburg received. So if Chapman could get 25-30% more than Strasburg if he is viewed as a starter, is he worth around $13m if he is viewed as a reliever?
If so, then you have to decide if he is worth a few more million if you think he has, for example, a 25% chance of becoming a starter even if you tend to believe that he projects as a reliever.
That may make $15m reasonable, but $20m unreasonable.
Pat M.,
Watching him in the WBC I also thought he was high A pitcher. Obviously he could move very fast but he didn’t look ready for AA.
Are the angels fairly confident that he’ll be a starter or are they just willing to absorb the risk that they could spend big and he turns out to be a reliever?
A tall lanky left hander that had no control when he was young just retired the other day. I think he turned out all right…not saying that Chapman will turn into that but even if there is a 5% chance he does then thats not a bad risk to take.
randy l.
I think it’s far more reasonable to project a 27 year old playing five to seven years than a 38 year old playing two years.
Posada is an offensive outlier. I’m not sure that he is a defensive outlier.
“So if Chapman could get 25-30% more than Strasburg if he is viewed as a starter, is he worth around $13m if he is viewed as a reliever?”
rich,
No. Samardizja only got that contract because the Cubs (as opposed to nearly every other team) were projecting Samardijza as a potential front line starter.
That’s why his deal has been a very, very bad one for the Cubs. He really hasn’tcontributed much at all at the major league level and it’s very clear now that he will only be a reliever.
That’s not a deal you want to draw any kind of valuation from because it turned out to be a very bad deal. The Cubs misevaluated him.
“You don’t want him, ok I get that. No reason to attack his character.”
I’m not. Damon had a pretty good year, and has 3000 hits in his sites. I would imagine he sees himself as an everyday player.
If the Yanks decided to platoon him or decide he couldn’t play LF and didn’t want to supplant NJ as DH, I don’t see him going to the bench quietly.
That would directly affect his ability to get his NEXT 1 year deal.
And if he didn’t directly complain, you don’t think his agent would?
If anything, Posada’s kind of had a light load the last couple of seasons because of the shoulder.
And I thought the shoulder looked decent by mid-summer.
Just maybe he bought himself a little extra time with those layoffs. Remember,it’s not the years it’s the mileage.
CB
Then can you cite a deal that can be used as a comparable?
“A tall lanky left hander that had no control when he was young just retired the other day.”
Sure. But you can also use Johnson as an example of exactly why you shouldn’t sign Chapman.
Johnson didn’t put it together until he was 29.
If that’s what happens with Chapman a team gets drenched for $20M.
I’d like the yankees to sign chapman. But there is a real argument to be made for letting another team blow the money to develop him and then go after him in 6-8 years when he hits the free agent market. That might be the most efficient use of resources if you want Chapman to pitch for your franchise.
“I’d like the yankees to sign chapman. But there is a real argument to be made for letting another team blow the money to develop him and then go after him in 6-8 years when he hits the free agent market.”
Thats not a bad idea..
Rich,
I don’t think there is a good comparison for the chapman situation. I really don’t. It’s so unique. Comps won’t give a more valid valuation.
If I were a franchise this is how I’d look at it. Were he available in the draft he’d be a top 2 pick. Even as a top 2 pick he wouldn’t be anywhere near as good as Strasburg. He would be left handed, however. He wouldn’t be as good a prospect as David Price. He would have a higher ceiling however.
And then of course the difficult issue is that he’s not in a draft. It’s a true open market on him.
As a top 2 draft prospect I think he’d be worth 9-10M. Factor in the fact that he’s a free agent and I think 15M is the line where the risk may start exceeding the potential reward. At 17M it starts to become more prohibitive.
But it’s really hard to put a value on him as an asset.
“I think it’s far more reasonable to project a 27 year old playing five to seven years than a 38 year old playing two years.”
rich in nj-
who cares about projecting a 27 year old . do the yankees have a 27 year old? the reality is posada is there and he’s good.
he had a good year in 2009.
it’s a specific situation.
there are so many things wrong with the way you think about posada i don’t even know where to begin.
according to your thinking posada’s 2009 shouldn’t have happened, but posada was a very good catcher last year . if he had lots of problems i could see the concern, but he didn’t.
and what’s your point about counting on older players?
are you counting on mariano next year?
according to your thinking , why would you count on him ?
CB, The person I know who is close to Ken Forcsh has indicated that the Angels liken Chapman to their own Ervin Sanatana, and that they can fix him to be a starter by the start of the 2012 season…And if things went well, he could be a callup by late 2011….This organization is very adept in getting their youngsters to the bigs early….Lackey, K-Rod, Sanatana, Adenheart, Saunders, Weaver all got a taste of the big stage early….Then they fix what they need to in order for success at the MLB Level, and the Angels have a good tract record with this…..
damon i believe was 3 war in 2009
bay had 3.5 war in 09 & according to fangraph was valued at 15.7 million
bay is projected at 4 war in 2010 & valued at 18.1 million
damon in 09 was 3 war & valued at 13.6 million & was paid 13 million
it looks like the market settled around 3.5-4 million per win above replacement roughly
even if damon is a 2 war he is worth 7-8 million
damon in 2010 is projected at 2.2-3.2 war from chone & fg & valued at 10-14.5 million mostly from his bat
Can we just cut Chapman a $3M check if he promises not to sign any extensions with the team he develops with?
“Just say no, to Damon. He’s greed driven at this point!!”
if anyone in this team-player negotiation could be the greedy party, it is the side who charges over a thousand dollars for tickets, and who put a sports bar in the middle of the bleachers.
Damon’s a good-hearted guy. I say this because he is the only player i’ve seen who signs autographs AFTER games. I saw him do this once outside the old stadium when he was on the Royals, and once outside Tampa’s dome a couple of years back. clearly there’s more to the guy than this simple-minded ‘greedy ballplayer’ stereotype.
“The person I know who is close to Ken Forcsh has indicated that the Angels liken Chapman to their own Ervin Sanatana, and that they can fix him to be a starter by the start of the 2012 season…And if things went well, he could be a callup by late 2011….”
Pat M.,
If that’s the evaluation of the player, then you really must go all in. If you have confidence in your scouts and development folks and that’s what they’re telling you then $20M makes sense.
The angels do a good job with their pitching, though they do seem to have some injury issues there. I’ve wondered if they’ve pushed their kids through the system too quickly at times, but i guess you could say that about most teams.
randy l.
“who cares about projecting a 27 year old . do the yankees have a 27 year old? the reality is posada is there and he’s good.”
You brought up Mauer:
“can you plan on mauer catching a whole season this year?”
so I thought you did.
“there are so many things wrong with the way you think about posada i don’t even know where to begin.”
Here’s where you should begin: My point about Posada was in the context of not giving Damon two years because he may have to DH in 2011, and so might Posada.
“according to your thinking posada’s 2009 shouldn’t have happened, but posada was a very good catcher last year . if he had lots of problems i could see the concern, but he didn’t.”
As I said, he’s an offensive outlier because players that C don’t hit that well, historically, after 34.
“and what’s your point about counting on older players?”
It’s an actuarial point. Most players decline with age.
“are you counting on mariano next year?
according to your thinking , why would you count on him ?”
Mariano, like Posada, performed well in 2009. So I think it’s likely that they will both be good in 2010, but again I was talking about 2011.
So no, I wouldn’t count on both in 2011 at this point.
CB
Samardzija was a special circumstance signing. That’s what Chapman would be. So even if the comparison isn’t on all fours, it does demonstrate that sometimes you need to throw out the standard valuation models.
How much is $20m to the Yankees? Probably not much given their revenues. So if Newman’s comments on this blog is at all indicative of their thinking, imo, they have to sign him.
BD, the Yankees want to start Chapman at A or AA – Chapman wants to start either in the majors (or at least at AAA, but I’m guessing he’s shooting for the majors). That’s a pretty huge difference of opinion. We discussed this earlier, but if that’s the deal, then I’m absolutely fine with the Yankees walking away. He’s not ready for the major leagues – why should the Yankees be beholden to Chapman? If they think he’s best served polishing his repertoire in the lower minors (as I think most teams think as well), then that’s where he should be. If they signed him, started him at AAA and had to demote him anyway, we’d have a disgruntled, expensive pitcher on our hands. I’m getting annoyed at Chapman just thinking about it.
As to Damon, not interested unless he comes begging for 1 year at 7 million or less. I really don’t get people who criticized the Yankees all these years for just throwing $$$ at players andwho applauded the Sox for how they valued players and let them go if the player insisted on more $$……….and now want the Yankees to cave. Let Damon cave if he wants to come back; I applaud the Yankees for their stance.
BD, I meant to add that although I would hate it if the Sox got Chapman, so be it. The Yankees still should not be beholden to some kid pitcher whose priorities do not match their own.
“How much is $20m to the Yankees?”
Over 5 yrs Hal could probably get that out of the couch cushions in his office.
Thanks Pat…Appreciate your viewpoint.
Rich,
I do think you have to be careful on extending special circumstance valuations.
Were Yu Darvish to come out on the market would $103M be a good valuation for him based on dice-K? I don’t think it would at all because the Dice-K deal has been awful for the Sox.
More than comps what matters is what the organization’s talent evaluation says.
If the organization is reasonably confident that he’s a starter who can get to the majors in 2-3 years than they should be all in and they should sign him even if that would take $30M.
o.k., maybe I was wrong.
this is a good game after all.
Who’s to say that Chapman will sign with the Angels? He seems to want to start in the majors or very close – a 2012 timeframe doesn’t seem to fit with his own. If Pete is right, then any team that signs him is going to have to start him higher than they think he should be (I find it hard to believe any team thinks he’s MLB ready or even AAA ready)…….and then good luck to them when trying to demote him.
“It’s an actuarial point. Most players decline with age.”
rich in nj-
this isn’t allstate insurance.
this is baseball.
there’s one guy named posada.
it is a very specific situation.
i agree that athletes age.
i do not agree that all athletes age at the same rate.
i think you have to look at the very specific athlete when judging him.
you could build a team on actuarial points i suppose, but you’d miss out on a lot of talented veteran players and another team would pick them up and kick your young team’s butt.
i don’t remember any young team without veteran players winning anything.
posada had 81 rbi in 383 ab
i’ll take that production anyday
an rbi every 4.7 ab
arod had an rbi every 4.4 ab
jeter every 9.5 ab
cano every 7.5 ab
tex every 5 ab
Who cares about Chapman, he will never make it to the bigs
End of the fairy tale?
I agree with Randy, but I agree with Rich – no way I’m signing Damon to 2 years. He struggled badly at the end of last year and his fielding was awful. DH is not an option at this point for him and we’d have to sit Nick if we wanted to give Damon a half day off. Given that Nick will be sitting when other players do, I don’t see how Damon fits on this team anymore (in other words, NJ would have to become something of a part-time player if Damon returns).
Alabama might want to think about covering Shipley
Rich in NJ……As for as the 2011 season and your comments about not counting on Jorge & Mariano….First, Very seldom will a player just get old over night, and after watching both players perform this past season it’s likely that both will still be effective players come 2011….That being said, The Yanks really have not many options for either roles by 2011, so the club is counting on them being ablew to still perform at a level close to 2009……This of course will be a very key season for both players…Rivera will be pitching for another contract ( 2 year deal I would think as of right now )…..2011 is Jorge’s final year on his contract….
randy l.
You keep failing to address my original point: Can we count on Posada being a C in 2011 to the point where we can sign Damon now to be a DH in 2011. I think the answer is no.
Nick in SF. I felt your sigh of relief all the way from the Bay……Me too……
Pat M.
Posada is already a bad defensive catcher. The only reason he is still able to catch is his bat. He is particularly bad a blocking balls in the dirt. So if they can have him C less games in 2010 and 2011 without losing too much defensively, they should.
Mariano may be the biggest outlier in the MLB history. Most relievers aren’t that good for five years, let alone 13 or whatever it is. At some point, he is likely to loss his effectiveness. After all, he is only human. So I think it’s wise to go year to year with him.
Pat M, I think 2011 is it for Jorge as a Yankee….I can not see him getting a multi-year deal after that. By then, hopefully Montero will be able to hold down the position at least part-time……Romine’s a year behind, so I’m not sure when he projects to be ready for the big leagues. If Jorge can still hit, I suppose he could come back to be the DH, but it would probably have to be on 1 year deals and I don’t see Jorge going for that.
And that seals the -4.5!!
Whew indeed.
When do they play Boise State for the national championship?
Very interesting stuff…….Long has already worked with Swisher, and extensively.
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com.....8;c_id=nyy
Montero, Romine ranked the two best catchers in the FSL
Posted by: Mike Axisa | Comments (79)
Continuing on with their league top 20’s, Baseball America named Jesus Montero and Austin Romine the second and tenth best prospects, respectively, in the High-A Florida State League. Montero was behind only Mike Stanton of the Marlins, and the pair were the only two catchers to appear on the list. In the subscriber only scouting report, Montero was called “the toughest out in the league,” while Romine was noted as having very few weaknesses in his game.
The Eastern League comes out on Friday, so Montero might be making an encore appearance.
Betsy, I wasn’t advocating resigning Jorge at all, it’s Rivera that could be given a 2 year deal…Once again this is a key year for him in regards to being re-upped for 2011 / 2012……Rich in NJ, once again the club is counting on Jorge’s skills to have a gradually dip as he plays out his contract…..I do agree defensively he had some bizarre lapse at time this past season……I do see your newer point about the Damon DH situation and the conflict with Jorge being used as a DH…..That is why I see Cashman possibly offering a 1 year deal only to him…Frankly, once again I say it’s time to move on without him…However I can see him being wanted for 1 year only……I rather role the dice with Gardner than Damon simply because of the defensive liability that Johnny brings……As it stands right now, 3 starters are gone from the lineup for next season….That’s a big turnover….I said that the club would move 5 players from the 09 club , but I never thought it’d be 33 % of the lineup
man are we going to have a tough decision to make between romine & montero
scouts say that montero is not ready defensively for AAA
they also say romine has been ready defensively for AA
i think romine will be our catcher of the future as long as he is decent with his bat
they still say montero has a long way too go
Pat M.
……I do see your newer point about the Damon DH situation and the conflict with Jorge being used as a DH….
That was my original point which led to this discussion.
You know what they say about the best laid plans…
Moving forward, Posada will not be a problem.
I hope that’s cleared up.
Rich in NJ
Jamie Noyer with the Phillies is still pitching at almost 48.
Randy Johnson 46, just retired. Trevor Hoffman, a closer is still going strong. They are all older than MO.
He said he wants 5 “MO” years and I believe him!!
Mo’s not ready to quit.
Rich, I understand now……….Nick in SF, I’m actually in better shape ( slightly ) now than I was before the Duck disaster………I also still say that The Cal Berkley-Bears are in the top 7 teams in the country in talent…..I just can’t figure out why they are losing…..They’ll get on a roll and be in the Elite eight come late March……They have outstanding individual talent, now it’s come to translate that into team talent……
Meant Jamie Moyer
Don’t underestimate Mariano!!
I love the serial handles.
My only point is that no one knows what the future brings.
GB7–I will let you know if they record the concert.
Austin is depressed for the Longhorn loss. I only get that way when the Yankees lose a heartbreaker.
Pat M, I’m positively overjoyed that Cal’s loss could help you get back in shape…
They have quite a bit of talent, not sure if it’s top 10 talent, but if a few more of the outside shots hit they look a lot tougher. Getting Gutierez back is imperitive, he gives them a defensive energy they cannot do without.
Nick in SF……Their unexpectedly poor start will prevent them from being no more than a 3 seed come March….However I can see them just getting on a roll and pull away from the Pac 10 pack……Bruins are very young, but I see them making the field of 64 …….I appreciate your humor regarding last night….
If we can’t maintain a sense of humor in the face of adversity, what’s the point…
Pat M-
Just curious, did you ever make it to the show?
Anyone who wouldn’t bring Damon back on a 1 year, 7 million dollar deal is delusional. Even if his defense in left field was PITIFUL (which it really is not, much like Swisher he looks a lot worse than he actually is), how many games do y’all think it would cost us over the course of a season? Is the upgrade that Brett Gardner offers in what is clearly the least valuable defensive position on the field really going to make or break whether we win a championship? If Damon was as pitiful as you all think he was this year then its living proof that you can do just fine with a stiff defensively in left.
The guy flat out rakes. His swing is perfect for this stadium, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t be a safe bet to post another .280/.350/.480 type season. Out of the number hole that is infinitely more valuable than any upgrade Gardner can offer in the field- that type of production DOES win ball games and can very well offer enough value to differentiate a division winning team from one that misses the playoffs.
Cashman should let Damon know that he’s welcome with open arms to come back on the organization’s terms. Not doing so would simply be moronic.
Buddy…..No sir….Three weeks at AAA Syracuse, and 2 Spring Trainings…..Then back to AA and I called it a career…..Bad wheel……It was a great time, however it was a revelation once you come to the understanding that it’s a business….There’s always 5-6 guys behind you ready to take your job……
Thanks for sharing Pat M, still quite impressive.
Denzel waxed CC
GC, Gardner’s capable of those same numbers (except for slugging) at a fraction of the cost .280/.350 with colossally greater defense than Damon. Give the young, yet balding, speed demon a chance. Be another interesting aspect to the coming World Series Defense Tour of Duty 2010.
Denzel Washington grew up a Yankees fan and didn’t live too far from Yankee Stadium in White Plains.
“GC, Gardner’s capable of those same numbers (except for slugging) at a fraction of the cost .280/.350 with colossally greater defense than Damon.”
It’s what goes into compiling slugging percentage and the result of it that Brett Gardner is lacking. Brett Gardner is going to drive in 80 runs? Or be a threat to tie the game with a home run? He should be paid a fraction of the cost, he’s only a fraction of the player.
The other thing that having Brett as a starter inpacts is the depth of the bench. His speed is a nice weapon to have, but his base running judgement isnt very good either.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/.....-1.1689837
The Mets have commanded the baseball headlines in town for the better part of two weeks. The Yankees have been relatively low-key lately, and their immediate plans are to pretty much stay that way. “No rush,” Brian Cashman said. “I wouldn’t do anything just to do it.”
When and if the general manager does make a move, it is likely to be something small-scale, which he has said several times since completing the deal for Javier Vazquez. He is looking at bolstering the bench, specifically a righthanded-hitting outfielder who would give Joe Girardi another option in leftfield.
Cashman is bargain-hunting, the reason the Yankees never made a play for premier free-agent outfielders Jason Bay, who signed with the Mets, and Matt Holliday, who re-upped with the Cardinals. The chance of a return by Johnny Damon remains slim, if not non-existent.
Reed Johnson, Randy Winn and Jerry Hairston Jr. are among the possible low-cost options, though Cashman said, “It might not just be a free agent. It could come via trade.”
The Yankees made one move this week, avoiding salary arbitration with Sergio Mitre, who agreed to a non-guaranteed one-year deal for $850,000.
“When we signed him [last year], we said, let’s rehab him for 2010; whatever we get in 2009 is a bonus,” Cashman said of Mitre, who had Tommy John surgery in 2008. “The whole purpose is to have him as another choice here. He’s got a great sinking fastball [when healthy] and gets ground balls. In the American League, in our ballpark, that’s got a lot of value.”
“Can we count on Posada being a C in 2011 to the point where we can sign Damon now to be a DH in 2011. I think the answer is no.”
rich in nj-
i wouldn’t link damon and posada to the dh position in 2011 in the first place. the dh position tends to change every year .
but to switch the focus from posada to damon, there are many yankees could get 2011 dh time, so i agree with your position not to sign damon with the idea that he would be the full time dh in 2011.
as far as posada goes with catching, as long as he continues to throw well (09 CS rate 27.9 %) he’ll keep catching through 2011 and be the starter.
varitek is done as a starter mainly because his CS rate dropped down to 12% . even though his hitting is bad he could have still caught a lot of game if he could still throw.
posada is not in that situation. i would like to see pena keep on posada to always work on his fundamentals. he has always had a tendency to get lazy with his body back there and resort to the mitt to much .
when he makes a commitment to be really working and being active with his body he’s fine. he’s then not a bad catcher at all as many who know little about catching have said in bandwagon fashion. this bandwagon is similar to those who have said for years that jeter was a bad shortstop.
just like jeter reinvented his defense last year and got better, don’t be surprised if posada doesn’t do the same. these players didn’t get to where they are without being able to make adjustments their whole career.
posada must hear the negative buzz like jeter probably did. i think he’ll go at it working out and have an improved defensive year.
nothing annoyed me more last year than hearing so called yankee fans bash posada. to me it was a litmus test of being a light weight fan and a lightweight in baseball knowledge.
it’s bad enough when red sox fans ban a great yankee player , but when yankee fans do it, it’s hard to take.
Another point to consider with Posada.
He came to catching later in his career. He started out as a second baseman and didn’t become a fulltime catcher in the majors until he was in his Mid-20′s.
That saves his body a bit more than a guy like Varitek, who has been catching his entire life.
I could be wrong but I think if Cashmans first choice was to sign Reed Johnson or winn then he would have done it already. I think he’s waiting I see if Damons price drops or if Nady is healthy and those other guys are his plan B’s.
Blake-
Cash is a patient man.
It was interesting to hear that he might also consider a trade for LF platoon, etc.
“nothing annoyed me more last year than hearing so called yankee fans bash posada. to me it was a litmus test of being a light weight fan and a lightweight in baseball knowledge.”
Spot on Randy. Posada has been so valuable to the Yankees that it is hard to understand how people didn’t appreciate that. Anyway…I think Montero will be starting the 2011 season in the majors, so perhaps he and Posada could form a C/DH rotation. Both of them provide enough offense to be a capable DH & this should help keep each of them fresh and healthy. Or maybe it will be a Mauer/Montero combo at DH/C?!?
“That saves his body a bit more than a guy like Varitek, who has been catching his entire life.”
SJ — Is this a strategy the Yankees try to employ…sacrificing experience at the position for longevity? I ask because I thought I read that Montero also used to play a different position.
Do Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday constitute the best 3-4 combination in the majors? Among St. Louis baseball writers, the consensus is that they don’t, with Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira taking the top spot and Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun giving the two Cardinals a good fight.
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzo.....d-4-combo/
MTU, yea he’s patient but if certain players were really out of the question then he would have nothing to wait on. The trade comment was interesting….Dejesus?
Blake-
Some people like DDJ some don’t.
Not sure if he is actually available anyway ?
MTU, I think he’s available but he may cost too much in prospects for Cashman’s taste. They won’t give him away.
A few thoughts:
1. Yankee Hot Stove reported last night that Toronto and Boston are hot and heavy for Chapman. They also reported that the Rangers have made a 1 year 7 mil offer to Vlad.
2. I just can’t see Damon coming back here. At this point he would have to come crawling back and accept at most a 2 year deal for 10 mil (maybe a deal structured like the one Adrian Beltre just signed) and I don’t see him doing that. I think it would do less to hurt his ego to go to a new team like Atlanta or San Francisco.
3. Of the RH bats Chad listed yesterday I guess I would go with Tatis if the Yankees get another LF, if not Reed Johnson. Again, I don’t have a specific objection to Brett Gardner except that I think he should have to earn his spot. Consider This: The Yankees are making Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes battle for a role in the rotation but are willing to hand Gardner (a far less established player) the LF spot. Does that make sense? Chad did say that the Yankees have signed some guys to minor league deals that they just are not ready to report, so maybe Brett’s competition comes from there – maybe it comes from Jamie Hoffmann, but I just think there are enough guys out there that Brett should have to earn his spot.
4. I’m surprised that Russ Branyan hasn’t generated more interest – he had a very strong season in a pitcher’s park and you would think that some team could use him as a slugging 1b/DH/OF – I think he (or Blalock) would be a good fit for Baltimore.
5. It says a ton about the free agent market that the fifth highest contract this winter has gone to Randy Wolf.
sj44-
you’ve been around good players long enough to know that the good ones have the ability to make adjustments and those adjustments usually involve a lot of work.
your nephew is a perfect example of that. he could have coasted into the draft his last year and still been drafted fairly high, but he worked really hard at the right things, improved his body and skills, and the rest is history.
he’ll likely do that his whole career when he hits a point that he has to make an adjustment.
jeter made about 60 errors his first year. he worked hard and figured it out. he’s continued to do that whenever he hit a bump in the road.
i had a long talk one day with fisk when he was with the white sox at the end of his career. he said that he worked out religiously after games especially doing weight work on his lower body.
fisk didn’t just have some gene for longevity. he worked really hard at it before most other players did. posada has always worked out.and he has the benefit of better training than fisk did.
people underestimate what a strong guy posada is. he’s kind of funny looking with the ears and the not classic chiseled body, but he’s as strong as any catcher. the bombs he hits to the upper deck show that. and also the quality of his throwing arm which doesn’t come without a huge amount of work.
you know how much throwing and working out that a catcher has to do to keep his arm in shape. it’s almost as much as a pitcher. it’s real simple, no arm , no catch. posada has really kept his arm strength.
i’m hoping he has two good solid years catching with some gradual decline and is positioned to make a run for the hall of fame.
when you look at andre dawson getting in with his obp and other numbers, posada’s number look pretty impressive especially as a catcher.
If Nady is healthy then I like that option (if Damon is off the table). He’s a pretty good defender and gives a right handed bat with upside. I think if they are going to sign somebody then it should be a player that has the potential to be an upgrade over Gardner, thats not Reed Johnson. I haven’t heard what his asking price is though so that would be the big question.
Blake-
I agree with what CB and WYH have said about widening the potential margin between us and the Sox via a LF upgrade/platoon.
I think Gardy is going to get a shot this year but a marginal upgrade might not be that bad at least for this year.
We’ll see about Nady.
Might have to revisit same again next year ?
Peter Gammons is never ever right about anything. He isn’t worth even discussing as a source for any information. He has a real passion for the game and the Sox and provides some nice articles about the sport. But as far as providing inside info it is always skewed and he has become the publicist for the Boston Red Sox. Essentially any move they make he comes out with an article backing it even if it contradicts his earlier opinions.
And Pete’s inside info from friends of Wang or anyone else also is pretty worthless. Pete wrote something about Wang for a publication, so unless he says Wang said it himself who cares. At the end of the day, the Yankees may be the best situation for him.
New thread ->
The whole thing with needing a righty hitter too is a bit of nonsense. Johnny Damon still hit pretty well against lefties. His bat, being a lefty is much more leathal in Yankees Stadium than a righty who hits about the same. He’s one of the best clutch hitters the Yankees have, something you can’t replace. He batted 300 with RISP last year, .391 with man on third with less than two outs. Now that sounds like something that should be high amongst all players, but we all know the Yankees struggles the last few years there.
Put simply, I understand the financial issues, defense and age with Damon, but he will be missed greatly in this lineup. He is a unique talent.
Just to demonstrate the numbers, Granderson is a .242 with RISP, with less than 2 outs and a man on third .222 hitter.
I will concede that Nick Johnson, however, has solid stats, but I still can’t bring myself to count on Nick as durable or dependable and no one can argue that if he went down for the year within the first month in the season, that it wouldn’t be a surprise.