Pinch hitting: David Roher
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- January
- 24
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This morning’s addition to the Pinch Hitters series comes from David Roher, who used his understanding of numbers and statistics to analyze the postseason decision to occasionally start Jose Molina ahead of Jorge Posada.
David lives in Westchester and is a history major in the middle of his sophomore year at Harvard. He’s a coxswain on varsity lightweight crew and the co-President of the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, a club on campus. HSAC revamped its blog late last year and provides content for the Huffington Post. A fan of the Bombers since age 6, David wrote that he spends much of his time in Boston getting yelled at from passing cars on account of his Yankees sweatshirt.
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Jorge or José? If you followed the Yanks through last October, that question was probably on your mind. In playoff games that A.J. Burnett started, Joe Girardi sacrificed Posada’s offense for Molina’s defense, particularly his ability to coax a “Good A.J.” performance out of the Jekyll-and-Hyde pitcher.
Part of what made the decision so controversial was that while we had no clue whether Burnett’s better splits with Molina were the real deal, we had a precise knowledge of the offensive impact… right?
Not so much. As I was analyzing the decision on the offensive side, I realized that none of the statistical tools available gave me an adequate answer. This study was the best anyone could do: give a runs-per-plate-appearance estimate. So I decided to create a new stat, Result-Change Probability, which I’m debuting on LoHud today. I don’t want to find whether the risk was worth taking – just precisely how big a risk it was.
When deciding which player should start over an entire season, I ask how many more games the team will win with one player over the other. In a statistical sense, this is usually one number – something like Wins above Replacement. But in reality, it’s two numbers, and two questions: how many games would the team win with Player A that it would have lost with player B? And how many games would the team lose with A that it would have won with B?
My idea is to apply that thinking to a single game, and to the Posada/Molina question in this case. We have to change the questions a bit: what is the probability that Molina’s offensive contribution would lose a Posada win, and vice versa? We still wouldn’t know about Molina’s effect on Burnett, but we’d have a much better idea of what it would take to overcome the offensive loss.
There are a lot of different ways to answer the question, just like there are many different ways to compute the number of wins a player is worth. The calculations for some of these methods are pretty intensive, and I’ll be developing them at our blog over the next few months.
To answer it here, I assumed that we were talking about one or two plate appearances per game, as Molina would be pinch hit for after that point. I created three models based on 2009 totals:
• The Yankees’ winning percentage based on the number of runs they score.
• The Yankees’ chance of scoring a certain number of runs in a game with only Posada, based on work by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Musings.
• The Yankees’ chance of scoring a certain number of runs in a game with Molina starting.
As a comparison, here are the last two together:
After a couple (hundred million) simulations, here are the probabilities we’re interested in:
Yankees win with either: 52.02%
Yankees win with Posada’s offense, lose with Molina’s: 15.94%
Yankees win with Molina’s offense, lose with Posada’s: 14.19%
Yankees lose with either: 17.85%
That third figure is really bizarre, isn’t it? Molina is indisputably much, much worse on offense, yet his presence on that side of the ball alone sees an extra win roughly one out of seven times. It’s just a product of random chance – sometimes the inferior team wins. To get the final product, Result-Change Probability, subtract the third number from the second: Posada’s offensive presence increases win probability by 1.75%.
Contrast that small number with the potential effect of the starting pitcher (plus Molina’s conventional defensive skills), and Girardi’s decision might make more sense. Even if he thought that Molina had only a tiny effect on Burnett, it may have very well been worth benching Posada.
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Sam Borden
Josh Thomson
I just can’t imagine Damon accepting a 2 mil offer from the Yankees and I certainly don’t expect Cash to confirm the story posted by Heyman (if it’s true).
That said, if we use his list of alternatives then here is my order of preference:
1. Randy Winn
2. Reed Johnson
3. Jim Edmonds
4. Jermaine Dye
I still think that the best move is to sign Tatis and play Gardner in LF. I just believe Fernando is the best option out there for a bench role due to his experience in the position. It is not easy for players who have played everyday to adapt to bench roles (so that eliminates Edmonds, Winn and Dye) and Tatis, while not the defender Reed Johnson is, can play more positions than Johnson and has a little more pop in the bat.
If the Yankees are concerned that Brett Gardner can’t play everyday – then bring in an outfielder on a minor league deal with an invitation (Edmonds or Winn) and if they outplay Gardner send Brett to AAA.
By the way – congratulations to Alex on winning the Postseason MVP award
Great signing by the O’s to bring back Tejada – presumably as a 3b.
Move GA to 1b and they will have a heck of a defensive IF given that Tejada’s got better range than most 3b.
I think that if they have the budget then it would make a ton of sense for them to add Johnny Damon – give them a little more veteran leadership, a guy who knows what it takes to win, and someone to really lighten up the clubhouse.
Plus consider the lineup:
Damon – LF
Roberts – 2b
Markakis – RF
Tejada – 3b
Scott – DH
Jones – CF
Weiters – C
Atkins – 1b
Izturis – SS
David,
Nice job. You obviously put a lot into it. I felt that Girardi did the right thing by pairing AJ and Molina, and your stats actually support that.
Hey everybody, I addressed some questions you might have in a supplemental post over at our blog:
http://harvardsportsanalysis.w.....kees-blog/
Hope it helps, and I’d be happy to answer any more questions either here or over there. Thanks for reading!
This post reminds me of that article on “On WPA or, Why Johnny Damon would be the 2009 MVP”.
I am going to post it for fun
http://umpbump.com/press/2009/.....09-al-mvp/
David –
Very well thought out post. That being said, I don’t know that the Yankees put as much thought into it as you’re giving them credit for.
I think it came down to one factor: AJ Burnett’s comfort. The starting pitcher is the most important player on the field game in and game out and if starting Molina meant AJ was more comfortable then that’s the way Joe was going to play it. The Yankee lineup is deep enough to absorb the presence of a Jose Molina from time to time, but let’s not forget how the Yankees did in 2008 when Jorge missed most of the season. Molina is what he is, a capable defensive catcher who should play, at most, once a week. More than that and he’s going to be grossly overexposed.
Erica – WPA is sort of what I’m going for. You could think of Result-Change Probability (I’d like to make the name less lame, if there are any suggestions) as a decontextualized version of WPA.
Forget Randy Winn. He has deteriorated past the point of being even as good as Gardner, Edmonds hasn’t played for two years, Johnson can’t stay any healthier than Nick Johnson and defensively, Bernie Williams would be a better choice than Dye. Find another super scrub like Curch or Tatis to champion their cause.
David
January 24th, 2010 at 10:12 am
Erica – WPA is sort of what I’m going for. You could think of Result-Change Probability (I’d like to make the name less lame, if there are any suggestions) as a decontextualized version of WPA.
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David-
I don’t have any name chang ideas for you.. yet, but I will keep it in mind.
During the heat of the Great Posada v Molina Debate of 2009, someone had posted all of the Yankees win/loss stats by catchers start. If my memory serves, Posada had the highest winning percentage but the stats were so closely split that all you could really conclude was that the 2009 Yankees were just an awesome team
***Church***
Jorge is a good hitter and a good plate presence, and in any other lineup in baseball you can’t take him out. Last year, when he was out of the lineup, everyone who hit behind him just slid up a notch. Cano, Swisher, and even Melky hitting behind Matsui was still MORE than fine, and then Molina was in a spot where the worst hitter in a lineup usually is anyway. So really the impact of losing Posada wasn’t in the middle of the lineup, but at the end where it isn’t felt as much anyway.
Good post. I like that approach. Also, as great as Jorge is, and I do think he is underrated, even by Yankee fans, he is not a great post season performer.
In 111 career playoff games (same number of games as his 2009 season) he is a .239/.351/.384 (avg/obp/slg) hitter. That’s an OPS 123 points lower than his career average.
As a comparison, in 54 career playoff games A-Rod has a .977, a few points better than his career average.
I think that this post shows how much you can over-analyze a decision to come to the opinion that your gut tells you to begin with. That being that Jose Molina is a fine D catcher and Posada needs regular rest. So team molina up with the pitcher with whom he is most comfortable. (or who is more comfortable with him). You get regular rest and a ready back up just in case. But all the statistical analysis in the world wouldn’t make you put Molina behind the dish everyday over Posada. If Posada were 27 not 37 years old you wouldn’t even take him out every fifth day. At least I wouldn’t in my humble opinion.
Chip – I agree with you, particularly about the SP being the most important player on the field. Part of the reason the 1.75% figure is because the offense controls only 50% of the game, and there are 9 lineup spots. So each hitter can be considered responsible for less than 6% of the game’s outcome offensively, and even less than that if you’re in the #9 slot. Meanwhile, SPs usually are responsible for around 2/3 of the pitching outcome, which is 33% of the entire game.
I gotta say, I don’t buy this analysis.
Try it by using Cody Ransom instead of Alex Rodriguez. I’m wagering the results wouldn’t be much different.
JGL – The quality of the Yankees lineup is definitely an important factor. An offense that averages over 6 runs a game (they didn’t over the course of the reg. season, but they would have had they started their postseason lineup every day) can afford to take a hit.
If this were an average or below-average offense, losing Posada’s bat would be deadly, and the number would go significantly up.
I am sure a goal of spring training will be to get Posada and AJ more comfortable w/ each other. They did have some good games together, and AJ had some bad games w/ Molina.
Tn Yankee – Stats don’t have to contradict what you were already thinking in order to be valuable. I think numbers are useful when they explain what we already see. In this case, they say that a significant boost defensively would likely be enough to overcome the offensive hit. Analysis like these can help to explain why, but I respect that they aren’t for everybody.
I have to wonder if what you’re seeing here isn’t just the result of a very small sample size. It would be interesting to run the same analysis using extreme samples….say Johnny Bench vs ? where ? is the worst catcher you can think of.
Posada vs Molina? Ugh.
If the topic of this post hadn’t been a running theme here last season, I may have been able to actually enjoy it.
It’s like when Tom Hanks finally got rescued off that island and the first food they give him is a plate of sushi.
Fernando Tatis is an option. It’s up to Cashman to see how he fits.
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/te....._id=123107
David,
Nice analysis.
How about naming the stat Comparative Win Differential?
David-I didn’t mean to say that stat analysis is not valuable. But for me it can get too technical and detract from the human side of the game. Just my preferences. I think most of the time our gut matches the stats. Anyway I think it was an excellent “pinch hit post” Just not my cup of tea I guess
V – 1 or 2 PA of Ransom over A-Rod would probably be somewhere between 2 and 3%.
1.75% is and isn’t small. It’s small compared to the potential effect of the SP. But over the course of the season, that’s 2.84 wins – a pretty huge amount for just 1 or 2 PA.
The thing about A-Rod vs. Ransom is that the SP isn’t being potentially influenced. So without a mitigating factor, the effect is unambiguously large – just as it would be in the catcher’s case if Burnett were not a factor.
The analysis and conclusion in this post have some pretty big flaws.
The problem with the analysis is that the sample size is far too small. How many games this year did Molina start where the Yankees scored 5 runs, or how many games did Posada start where the Yankees scored 2 runs. Each category will only have a small number of events and are prone to bias. What about a game that Molina started and went 0-4 but A-Rod and Teixeira homered? How does it make any sense to credit that to Molina?
So I do not believe that the difference in winning a game between Posada and Molina is 1.75%. But, even if it was, it is wrong to say that is not consequential. Over a full season: 1.75% of 162 is 2.8. That’s nearly 3 wins. That can be the difference between making the playoffs or going home.
Why not just use Wins above replacement? That says that in 2009 Molina was basically a replacement level player and Posada was worth 4 wins. (If Posada could theoretically start every day that number would be 5.8 wins (much higher than the 2.8 wins the OP came up with).
Finally, look at the 2008 Yankees. With Molina starting for Posada for most of the season and contributing nothing to the lineup, the Yankees missed the playoffs. It’s just simply wrong to say that Posada and Molina contribute about the same on offense.
butterball – what exactly do you mean by small sample size?
is there any way to see how Francisco Cervelli would do instead of Molina?
If Jose Molina was as valuable as this analysis wants us to believe, he would be signed by another team already since teams are always looking for players who produce more wins to their bottom line.
I think John’s analysis is more in line with what baseball people think re: the two players.
Just as some Yankee fans tend to overrate bench performers, some have gotten into the bad habit of underrating Jorge Posada.
Some have even gotten the crazy notion that Cervelli and Molina represent overall upgrades at the position.
That’s when folks lose me with their analysis.
No matter how much people want to complicate baseball with (often misapplying) advanced statistical analysis, the better players at positions usually represent more wins to their teams than backups.
Jorge Posada represents more wins to the Yankees than any other catcher they have. I don’t think you need an advanced degree to figure that out.
That was an excellent analysis.
I don’t think anyone can dispute the offensive difference between Posada and Molina. However, I’ve always been of the mind that catchers’ offensive abilities are hugely overrated.
In the case of someone like Jose Molina, whose defensive skills are so great, I actually don’t care if he hits or not. And frankly, in the Yankees’ lineup, it isn’t that important anyway.
Molina is not just very good at controlling the running game. That’s just one facet of what goes into being a top defensive catcher. Yes, he also excels at blocking balls in the dirt and he has great pop times, etc. etc. But his real skill is in knowing his pitchers, working with them and coaxing the best out of them, and knowing the opposing hitters and their trends. He is extremely adept at calling games. And, finally, he has few if any peers at framing the strike zone, which I think is one of the most underrated skills in baseball. By a lot.
Posada, as great as he’s been offensively, has never called a good game, and his complete inability to effectively frame the strike zone annoys and confounds his own pitchers almost on a daily basis.
Overrate catchers’ offensive abilities all you want, but in 2008 the Yankees sure did miss Posada’s bat.
To say Posada doesn’t call a good game is ridiculous.
How did he work with all of the pitchers he worked with, enough to win 4 World Championships, if he didn’t work well with pitchers?
Do you have any insight into scouting reports, the number of times he was shook off, which pitchers relied on him more than others, etc?
Jose Molina didn’t have a good year defensively last year. In fact, he began to show his decline back there, which is a primary reason nobody has signed him yet.
The bottom line is, most of the people on this blog who rip Posada have zero idea what it takes to be a catcher at any level of baseball, let alone the professional level.
The guy is a borderline HOF catcher who has a pretty impressive resume of pitchers he has worked with successfully.
He’s a fiery guy and that puts off some of the softer, more sensitive people on here.
However, if you ask pitchers whether they want someone with some fire or a pushover back there, the good pitchers will tell you they want someone to get in their grills back there everytime.
That’s how guys get better.
” Posada’s offensive presence increases win probability by 1.75%.”
david-
this doesn’t pass the baseball common sense test.
does anyone in MLB baseball or an informed fan think that if molina played in 120 games instead of the 52 he played in last year that the yankees would only lose 1.75% more or about two games?
in plain english,it appears your position is that if molina caught and posada was on the bench for 120 games the yankees would have only lost a game or two.
who would believe that?
there is so much wrong with this that it’s hard to know where to begin.
for one thing off the top of my head, molina gets worse the more games he plays. he’s injury prone at high use levels .where is that factored in ?
am i correct thatthe difference between posada and molina’s defense isn’t even factored in ?
if it isn’t ,your position that molina starting most of the games would have resulted in only losing a game or two is just silly.
The only pitchers who have a problem with a catcher who they believe doesn’t frame pitches well are those who can’t hit the target more consistently.
I didn’t see a lot of frustration by Roger Clemens, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, etc over the years about Posada’s supposed “inability to frame pitches”.
You don’t have the success he has had catching over 120 games a year for as long as he has unless you are good back there.
SJ44
January 24th, 2010 at 11:13 am
If Jose Molina was as valuable as this analysis wants us to believe, he would be signed by another team already since teams are always looking for players who produce more wins to their bottom line.
I think John’s analysis is more in line with what baseball people think re: the two players.
Just as some Yankee fans tend to overrate bench performers, some have gotten into the bad habit of underrating Jorge Posada.
Some have even gotten the crazy notion that Cervelli and Molina represent overall upgrades at the position.
That’s when folks lose me with their analysis.
No matter how much people want to complicate baseball with (often misapplying) advanced statistical analysis, the better players at positions usually represent more wins to their teams than backups.
Jorge Posada represents more wins to the Yankees than any other catcher they have. I don’t think you need an advanced degree to figure that out.
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bingo
molina’s war in 09 was 0.1 & he never had a war of 1.0
posada’s war in 2009 was 4.0
stop comparing a 4.0 war player with a 0.1 war player
If you want a good laugh about the Yankees,Damon-Boras mess
see this http://www.itsaboutthemoney.net (stupid!)
put 0.1 war players at every position & we are in last place
now put 4.0 war players at every position
molina is a great backup player but he is a backup for a reason
Sometimes I wonder if all the sabremetricians were A students in math and science. Did they also have a love for baseball, it being the only sport they could dissect. Somehow the passion most fans display toward this sport does not come across when I read their analysis. It’s always more of a scientific, judgmental, holier-than-thou diatribe. They are off in a corner because the average fan couldn’t argue with them if they wanted to.
Yes, Posada is better than Molina, otherwise Molina would have been the starting catcher. Yes, the world did not end when Molina caught AJ. Most people say stats are for losers. How did our parents and grandparents enjoy this great game without the overanalysis? I still do.
Possibly the only pitchers that might have an issue with Posada would be those that want to be babied on the mound, and, that ainlt going to be Posada. Posada has a lot of Thurman Munson in him. By the way…I don’t think that Burnett cares one way or the other. He pitched some of his best games with Posada catching…just as he did with Molina. He also pitched some of his worst games with Posada….just as he did with Molina. It was more of a fan and media driven controversy than a team issue. Perhaps one of the few managerial decisions that Girardi made in 2009.
GB,
I agree with that. I think Girardi overly coddled AJ and it wasn’t necessary.
This isn’t someone as fussy as Mike Mussina.
If you look at AJ starts with Molina back there, he still pitched from behind, still threw WP’s and still walked a lot of guys.
He pitched like he has his entire career. There was no voodoo transformation in him because Jose Molina was catching him.
Personally, I think AJ and Posada will do just fine this year.
I think fans, and some in the media, took the Boston outburst of AJ shouting “Why” after he gave up a HR and tried to turn it into Catcher-Gate.
Perhaps one of the few managerial ***bad*** decisions that Girardi made in 2009.
GB 7
couldn’t agree more. The controversy was all media and fans.
The upshot of this whole thing is that Posada is and should be our catcher. He will need time off for his health and I think cervelli should be fine in that position. But I can’t imagine and don’t want a personal pitcher style set up. Leave that for Wakefield and the sox.
So Molina only has one or two PA’s per game in this model? Who catches the rest of the game? Does Posada never get a day off, or do the Yanks have to carry 3 catchers?
If you are only looking at an average of 1.5 PA’s per game for Molina, with Posada catching the remainder, you have to gross up that 1.75%, don’t you?
And if the guest blogger is going to wade into these treacherous waters, I believe he owes us a better explanation of his model than he has given. I have no idea what his results are based on.
SJ44
January 24th, 2010 at 11:37 am
GB,
I agree with that. I think Girardi overly coddled AJ and it wasn’t necessary.
This isn’t someone as fussy as Mike Mussina.
If you look at AJ starts with Molina back there, he still pitched from behind, still threw WP’s and still walked a lot of guys.
He pitched like he has his entire career. There was no voodoo transformation in him because Jose Molina was catching him.
Personally, I think AJ and Posada will do just fine this year.
I think fans, and some in the media, took the Boston outburst of AJ shouting “Why” after he gave up a HR and tried to turn it into Catcher-Gate.
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Mussina was, as good/great a pitcher as he was, was a primadona. His glares at players, especially at Rodriguez when they made an error behind him, couldn’t have made for comfortable relationships. Nobody glared at him for giving up 450 foot homers. Posada wouldn’t take any crap from him, and, that’s probably the first time that ever happened to Mussina on a ball field.
The Boston incident, I don’t know who he was upset with…the pitch call or the location, because I doubt that’s where the pitch was meant to be. What I do remember is that it started all of the fan/media BS. To his credit, I don’t think he ever blamed Posada for the call. It will help a lot that they’ll have a full spring to work out their game plans.
david-
i will say your blog post is successful if being provocative is one of the criteria for being a good blog post.
i have always wondered about something. if a place like harvard provides some of the best statistical analysis education in the world , why can’t you and some of your sabermetric cohorts at harvard help the harvard baseball team be better?
i mean, as they are, they would have trouble beating a good high school team in florida or so california.
also do you watch many harvard baseball games?
Ah another gem by Green Beret – why so grumpy old man, can’t find anyone to help you change your Depends? For the record – Winn had a very bad year coming off a very good one, is that falling off a cliff? Maybe, or it could just be an off year. I don’t mind that you’re not open minded enough accept that as a possibility; I just worry that at your age it might be a sign of senility.
Now, moving on to somewhat intelligent discussion:
I don’t think David was comparing Jorge to Jose over the course of the season – I think he was just pointing out that in short bursts Molina wasn’t an awful option as a back-up catcher.
As for why Jose hasn’t been signed yet. Well I think that’s simple. Teams around the league are trying to save where they can. Bench is the primary place to make those savings; and as such teams are trying to fill the role of backup catcher with guys they can get for the league minimum.
Even the Yankees are doing that – as of right now every player on their bench will be making the major league minimum (Cervelli, Pena, Hoffmann).
I was just going to make a similar observation: Thurman and his “fiery” disposition have been deified.
And to be fair, I think the contingent of Yankee fans who appreciate Posada flexing his spleen – LOL, telling Joba “Stop embarrassing yourself – throw your FB” – outnumber those who don’t.
One thing that has fanned the flames somewhat is the former defensive catcher syndrome at work in the broadcast booth. While I generally appreciate what Flaherty brings to the table up there, I think the ex-player projecting his ego was in play when he was “analyzing” the Molina-Posada controversy re AJ Burnett.
This is why I come in here and comment that the “ex player” commentary should be taken in, but it also should be regarded with a healthy dose of skepticism. Flaherty was not a gifted offensive player. It’s human nature that he would elevate the status of a player who reflected his abilities – and his shortcomings.
Dare I say, the manager – perhaps unconsciously – could have been somewhat guilty of that; over rating Molina’s theoretical impact on Burnett, and coddling the latter in the process.
Of course, all the neophytes start shrieking because they believe a “real” ballplayer has confirmed their own position.
IMO, the whole discussion is ridiculous, not worthy of genuine debate. If offensive catchers weren’t so rare and impactful, the Yankees wouldn’t be bending over backwards to develop Montero – who could mash NOW in the majors -at the position.
The only reason Cleveland felt justified dealing Martinez is because of Carlos Santana.
Just a superfluous debate – a major reason why I chose to infrequent the blog after a time when it continued to be hashed over.
Randy I
Low blow…lol
John and SJ44 – I think most of your criticisms are based on misunderstandings that are my fault.
- In terms of the small sample size, the Yankee lineup’s run distribution is not based at all on how the Yankees lineup did with one vs. the other. In order to come up with the runs per game for each player, I used a model developed by David Pinto of Baseball Musings that calculates a runs per game for a lineup based on the OBP and SLG of each of the 9 players. To figure out the distributions of runs, I used a model developed by Baseball Prospectus, not the frequency of the Yanks’ run totals this year. So I really don’t think small sample size is an issue.
- 1.75% is only small in comparison to the role that the starting pitcher plays. If that were not in play, then I totally agree that benching Posada would be a horrific decision. I don’t mean at all to say that Molina/Cervelli are anywhere near as valuable. Another reason I classified it as small was to show the relative insignificance of any one lineup change in a single game. People act as if it were the end of the world, but we’re usually talking about a difference even smaller than 1.75.
- The gap between the 2.84 wins per season that my model projects and the 5.8 that WAR has can be explained by two factors:
1) Posada is getting most of the PA even in the “Molina” model: I had him getting 67% of the PA. 67% of 5.8 is 3.87 wins.
2) WAR assumes an 81-win team with an average offense. As the team gets better, it becomes harder and harder to win additional games. A 6-run offense with average pitching to back it up, let alone the Yankees’ front 3 starters and Mo, would win 97 games. Posada’s added runs more often in situations where the game is already won. So that roughly explains the rest of the gap.
Again, here’s a post on my blog where I explain some of that in more detail, specifically why RCP might be useful even though we have WAR.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.w.....kees-blog/
For all of Posada’s “defensive and game calling flaws”, he’s gotten the Yankee pitching staffs into the PS every year that he was the front line catcher, only missing 2008, when he only caught 1/3rd of the games. In 2004, he carried a patchwork rotation through the season. NYY will miss him probably as much as they miss Jeter when they are gone.
Chip January 24th, 2010 at 9:58 am
By the way – congratulations to Alex on winning the Postseason MVP award
—————————————————————
That’s right.
Quote:
“Post-season MVP. Wow,” Rodriguez said Saturday night. Pausing for effect he added, “What’s next, the good guy award?”
http://www.google.com/hostedne.....52cJqyvdCQ
Very nice post, David.
Suppose you had calculated the difference in expected number of Yankee runs under the two scenarios, and then divided by 10 (under the assumption that 10 runs = 1 win) Would that calculation provide a similar result to your more sophisticated analysis?
to the guy who posted this: go get some sunlight and introduce yourself to a few broads.
SJ -
I agree that Burnett was coddled but I disagree that it wasn’t necessary.
We all know that starting pitcher is the most important player on game day and if AJ Burnett felt like he was at his best with Jose back there, and the numbers backed him up, then why not humor him? Is Burnett on the same level as some of the other pitchers who didn’t enjoy pitching to Jorge (Mussina, Randy Johnson)? No he’s not. But so what?
It actually made things easier for Girardi to have AJ pitch to Molina – he had a built in opportunity to rest Jorge and keep him fresh throughout the season.
Now, if AJ’s numbers indicated that he was a vastly better pitcher with Jorge behind the dish than Molina and Burnett still insisted on throwing to Molina, then it would be reason to get in a twist.
Wave Your Hat – this isn’t about a full season. It’s just about a single playoff game. The way it worked there was that Molina would get up once or twice, and then Posada would pinch hit and catch the rest of the game.
Hopefully my previous comment explains the models a bit more.
David,
I respect your viewpoints and the blog post.
Honestly though, I don’t think we need a detailed analysis on this issue.
Jorge Posada is a better player than Jose Molina. Period.
There isn’t any logical debate on this evaluation.
Now, one could microanalyize it and say, “Molina will call a better pitch on a 2-2 count to David Ortiz than Posada will”, neglecting the fact there is no evidence to support such a theory, if one so desires. Or, “Molina will read Joba Chamberlain’s mind better than Jorge and not be shaken off so much”. Even though Joba shook off Molina as much (or more) than Posada last year. I choose not to wade in those waters because it becomes fan babble. Which BTW, reduced the entire Posada-Molina “debate” to foolish levels last season.
My unscientific analysis on the subject is this….. put the better player in your lineup as many times over the 162 game schedule as you can and you win more games.
Bodhisattva – Destiny Wears Pinstripes
January 24th, 2010 at 11:49 am
I was just going to make a similar observation: Thurman and his “fiery” disposition have been deified.
And to be fair, I think the contingent of Yankee fans who appreciate Posada flexing his spleen – LOL, telling Joba “Stop embarrassing yourself – throw your FB” – outnumber those who don’t.
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I can’t think of any other catcher besides Munson, that would walk out to the mound during a pitching change and ask Gossage how he planned to blow the game that day. gossage gave it back to him, though, by telling him to get his fat little butt back behind the plate and he’d find out. You know that Munson loved that. Posada seems to be that type, though, maybe not in those words.
Harvard baseball team. ROFL. I’m pretty sure nerds in hardvard dont know how to play baseball…
Chip,
My point is, it wasn’t necessary. Girardi did this all on his own.
AJ Burnett NEVER asked Girardi to assign Molina to his starts. I know this for a fact.
Joe did it, and it only “worked” because they won.
Clearly, its not going to happen this year because Molina isn’t going to be back.
IMO, Girardi panicked a little bit and overcompensated on this issue.
AJ was not appreciably better with Molina back there rather than Posada.
When you take into account what you lose offensively with Posada out of the lineup, this action wasn’t necessary.
They won DESPITE the move and not because of it.
harvard*
David in Cal – Thanks. It would be close, but it would overestimate the impact, because the Yankees offense is so good. Posada’s extra runs are likely to come in situations where they’re less likely to matter.
I can’t think of any other catcher besides Munson, that would walk out to the mound during a pitching change and ask Gossage how he planned to blow the game that day. gossage gave it back to him, though, by telling him to get his fat little butt back behind the plate and he’d find out. You know that Munson loved that. Posada seems to be that type, though, maybe not in those words.
====
LMFAO.
Goose definitely enjoyed the repartee. Goose also would tell Nettles and Randolph – when they started walking to the mound to “get the **** out of here…”
Remember when Posada and Duque would scream at eachother in spanish – the writers would ask if there was a problem, and Posada and Duque would say “It’s like brothers fighting…” They were amused by the response – to them, it was all in a day’s work.
Posada was asked by the Yankees if he thought they should bring Duque back (in 2004). Posada said, go and get him – best pitcher I ever caught. So much for the antipathy between them.
For all of Posada’s “defensive and game calling flaws”, he’s gotten the Yankee pitching staffs into the PS every year that he was the front line catcher
I’ve been thinking of a polite way to say this, but there is none, so I’m just going to be blunt: That is a moronic statement.
Yes, Jorge Posada is underrated and undervalued by Yankee fans and yes, he will be missed when he’s gone. But suggesting that he carried the Yankee pitching staffs into the post season is just foolish. Look at the quality of pitchers who have been in Yankee rotations since Jorge came up:
Andy
Cone
Clemens
Mussina
El Duque
Wang
Wells
Randy Johnson
Those pitchers could have gotten to the playoffs with Doug Mirabelli behind the plate.
The Yankees missed the playoffs in 2008 because they lost both Jorge and Matsui from their lineup and because injuries to Wang and Andy and ineffectiveness from Hughes and Kennedy left them with only one starter they could rely on. I highly doubt that the presence of Jorge Posada could have changed that.
SJ -
Obviously Molina won’t be catching AJ this season, but it wouldn’t shock me in the least if Cervelli does. I don’t care much for the idea of personal catchers but it does, if nothing else, build in a day off for an older player like Jorge who is going to need days off during the season.
David Wells never had post-season success until he became a Yankee.
El Duque never replicated his post-season success after he left NY, sans one inning as a White Sox against the Red Sox.
Andy had his best games in the post-season with Jorge behind the plate.
Wang’s best post-season start came with Jorge behind the plate.
Roger Clemens swore by Posada, often calling him the “best catcher he has ever worked with”.
Its pretty foolish to discount Posada’s work in this area.
“Randy I
Low blow…lol”
Tn Yankee-
some people like to go for the jugular , but a well placed punch can be highly effective in other locations.
glad you saw the humor in my observation, but the colleges with the best statistical analysis department do seem to have the worse teams.
i’m just pointing out that it takes good baseball players to win.
posada is a better baseball player than molina.
it doesn’t take statistical analysis to know that.
SJ44 – Thanks, I definitely see where you’re coming from. The irony of all this is that I left the pitching side open because I wanted to encourage a non-quantitative discussion about that issue. As in, “now that we know we have to overcome this much on offense, is this qualitatively the right call?”
Clearly you’re of the opinion that the Posada-Burnett stuff was overblown.
Then the analysis still supports what you’re saying, that the offensive loss is significant and the pitching loss is not. But I don’t mean to force anyone into expressing their idea into numerical form. It’s helpful for some people (like me) and just useless for others, and that’s cool either way.
I think there 2 chances Francisco Cervelli is anybody’s personal catcher this year….slim and none.
As for what the Yankees lose offensively without Jorge – I agree that the drop off from Posada to any backup catcher is huge. But given the depth of the Yankee lineup I believe they can cope with his absence once a turn through the rotation – especially if it means that they’re going to have a fresh Posada the rest of the games.
I do not believe that the Yankees will open the season with Cervelli catching Burnett, but at some point during the season it will morph there.
Bodhisattva – Destiny Wears Pinstripes
January 24th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
LMFAO.
Goose definitely enjoyed the repartee. Goose also would tell Nettles and Randolph – when they started walking to the mound to “get the **** out of here…”
Remember when Posada and Duque would scream at eachother in spanish – the writers would ask if there was a problem, and Posada and Duque would say “It’s like brothers fighting…” They were amused by the response – to them, it was all in a day’s work.
Posada was asked by the Yankees if he thought they should bring Duque back (in 2004). Posada said, go and get him – best pitcher I ever caught. So much for the antipathy between them.
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Posada and hernandez were like two brothers and started shoving, screaming and everything but take swings at each other…..on the mound, in the dugout…made no difference. Then Hernandez would go out and completely shut down the other team just to shut up Posada (and maybe show him up), and that’s all Posada wanted. One that I remember was when he continued to throw that eephus pitch and Alex Rodriguez launched one into the left center field bleachers.
As I said, Munson and Posada were much alike. They might sacrifice one pitch and let the pitcher get hammered to make his point. They were master psychologists.
Posada is getting older and will be needing more and more days off now too… so theres no reason they can’t just ‘happen’ to coincide with when Burnett is pitching!
Burnett is so good when he’s on, the Yankees should do whatever it takes to make sure he’s ‘on’ as much as possible.
David,
I’m of the opinion that not only was the “controversy” overblown but, Girardi made the mistake of feeding into it.
AJ’s season mirrored his other seasons. The catcher has little to do for a guy with only 2 pitches. You call either one of them, hope location is good, and go from there.
It was one of the few managerial blunders Girardi made last year.
This is different than Mussina storming into his office and saying, “I don’t want Posada catching me”, which he did in his last season with the Yankees.
AJ never did that. In fact, he constantly told Girardi that he and Jorge are fine together.
This was all on Girardi and IMO, as someone who taught and raised a catcher who is now in the Pirates farm system and who has been around the game his entire life, a move that didn’t need to be made.
Fortunately, the team was so good last year, it absorbed the move and didn’t make waves.
I am hoping Girardi learned his lesson on this and doesn’t repeat the same mistake this season.
To everybody who wants me to go outside – gimme a break, Boston weather sucks. And nobody’s playing baseball in January.
And also, I am a varsity Div. I athlete. There isn’t a lot of numerical analysis to being a coxswain; just steering the boat, correcting technique, and motivating the crew. I don’t really understand why people think that numerical analysis and enjoying the game just like any other fan are mutually exclusive.
SJ –
Your logic on Posada is somewhat circular.
1. Wang’s greatest success coming with Jorge behind the plate: Wang’s greatest success came when he was healthy and we haven’t seen him healthy with any catcher other than Wang over a large enough sample size to judge.
2. Andy’s post season success with Jorge – again, we haven’t seen a large enough sample size to compare that to. He pitched very well with Leyritz catching him early in his career – doesn’t mean Jimmy was a terrific catcher.
3. El Duque pitched extremely well before ever meeting Jorge – as evidenced by his success in Cuba. As for how he pitched after leaving the Yankees, well was that because Posada wasn’t his catcher or was it because he was old and oft-injured?
Again, I’m not trying to discount what Jorge means to this team – I’m just saying that it’s foolish to announce that Jorge was the key to success for so many great pitchers.
As for Cervelli not being someone’s regular catcher – well if Jorge is going to need regular rest anyway (and at his age he will) then why not plug him in as AJ’s catcher if AJ feels more comfortable throwing to him anyway?
“I think there 2 chances Francisco Cervelli is anybody’s personal catcher this year….slim and none.”
sj44-
i’m just waiting for trisha to see this and jump into the discussion.
then i’m going to go ice skating on the nearest cape cod pond with thin ice and drown myself.
That’s a beaut, GB7.
You have a way with the Yankee past – poetic.
Your posts are as much a reason as any that I come in here.
The “younger” folks don’t understand the world we have lost – but you lived it and when you tell it in your words, they sync with my own memories.
Have a good afternoon, all. TIme to get ready for Jets vs. Peyton.
Chip,
The best way to develop a young catcher, and to get the entire team supporting him, is to have him catch the entire staff.
It would be dumb to make him anybody’s personal catcher.
That’s not good for the team and not good for his own development.
He will play, regardless of who is pitching, on the days Jorge needs rest.
Since AJ has no desire to have a personal catcher, my guess is Girardi won’t assign him one this year. Especially a rookie because Joe knows that’s the worst way to break in a young catcher.
Jorge’s workload will be somewhat reduced this year but not because of any “personal catcher” scenarios.
There will be games when the team is holding a safe lead and Frankie Cervelli catches the rest of the game. There’s the day game after a night game also.
JGL
January 24th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Posada is getting older and will be needing more and more days off now too… so theres no reason they can’t just ‘happen’ to coincide with when Burnett is pitching!
Burnett is so good when he’s on, the Yankees should do whatever it takes to make sure he’s ‘on’ as much as possible.
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If Posada isn’t hurt in 2010, he’ll still start 125 games behind the plate. Had it not been for the early May hamstring injury in 2009, he would have started 120 games then.
Bodhisattva – Destiny Wears Pinstripes
January 24th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
That’s a beaut, GB7.
You have a way with the Yankee past – poetic.
Your posts are as much a reason as any that I come in here.
The “younger” folks don’t understand the world we have lost – but you lived it and when you tell it in your words, they sync with my own memories.
Have a good afternoon, all. TIme to get ready for Jets vs. Peyton.
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NYY had another catcher like that, just before Munson….Ellie Howards. Pitchers were used to Berra, but, Berra besides being good was so easy going, but, he was smart. Howard was the same, but, really assertive and didn’t take much crap. He knew Ford didn’t want to think out there, much like Stottlemyre. Bouton was like that. Downing, though young, tried calling his game, so Howard let him try it, and although NYY won, Downing got hammered. Howard taught Munson. Ellie is one of the most underrated catcher of the past 50-55 years.
I’m hoping that Posada stays with NY in the system to coach along with Pena. I think Posada may end up managing when it’s over. He’s nobody’s dummy.
I’ve never been a fan of the “personal” catcher thing. It’s really only worked as an homage to finicky aces like Carlton and Maddux. Unless the pitcher really wants it, why would it even be a consideration?
I would be surprised if Jorge tops 120 this year. Every fourth game off seems about right. they can DH him occasionally against certain lefties.
Late on another thread I again pointed out that the Yanks should make a play for Ty Wigginton. He’s versatile, RH and kills LHP. Baltimore has little if any use for him now having signed Tejada to go with Atkins so the price shouldn’t be too high.
Thoughts?
” I think Posada may end up managing when it’s over. ”
gb7-
i agree that posada would make a good manager, but i think he’s made too much money as a player to do it.
maybe like mattingly, as his kids grow up, he’d consider it later on.
You are all missing the point.
He is saying that replacing Posada for a SINGLE GAME may not have been as big of a risk as people say, especially when you consider the possible benefit Molina might have in helping AJ’s psyche.
If AJ feels mentally comfortable with Molina and not with Posada, then that is going to overcome the 1.75% difference in win probability between them.
Thus, it is a good stat to use when evaluating whether to bench certain players on certain days, etc. This is not a tool for overall, full-season evaluation.
You guys are missing the point.
this has to be the worst guest post ever.this dude is getting blasted with his over relaince on stats.
randy l.
January 24th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
“I think there 2 chances Francisco Cervelli is anybody’s personal catcher this year….slim and none.”
sj44-
i’m just waiting for trisha to see this and jump into the discussion.
then i’m going to go ice skating on the nearest cape cod pond with thin ice and drown myself.
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Let me know if you need a little shove to get your skates started, Randy. I’ll come up and give you a healthy push in the right direction.
LMAO.
randy l.
January 24th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
” I think Posada may end up managing when it’s over. ”
gb7-
i agree that posada would make a good manager, but i think he’s made too much money as a player to do it.
maybe like mattingly, as his kids grow up, he’d consider it later on.
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Not sure if he lives around Tampa in the off-season, but, after a year off or so, I think he’ll start down there, or, maybe as a roving instructor type and then go from there. You’re right, though. I don’t know that he would jump right into coaching/managing.
Lies, lies, lies.
There was never a 2 year offer from the Yankees for Johnny Damon – not 2 years 10, 2 years 14 and certainly not 2 years 20.
How do I know this?
Because the Yankees front office is running well right now and part of that means they’re reading the market accurately.
Just one year ago, they knew that Bobby Abreu @ 1 year 15-17 million was too much and they refused to offer him anything more than 1 year if they even offered one in the first place.
They read the market correctly. He received nothing more than a 1 year offer from every single team in baseball. Not one single team offered him a multiyear deal, not even 2 years.
Just 1 year later, not one single team has offered Damon 1 year yet but we are to believe that the Yankees front office overrated Damon from the get-go and offered 2 before anyone else offered 1?
The reports of 2 years offers were false!
The Yankees approached Damon just as they did Abreu. They believe 1 year is the max.
Boras/Damon weren’t foolish to turn down the Yankees rumored 2 year offer because there was never a 2 year offer. To believe that, you’d have to think the same front office that nailed down the market for outfielders last year was dead wrong this year.
It’s illogical.
I dont like letting Molina go. I like CF but Molina’s the best defensive catcher we’ve had in a very long time.
charlestonchew
January 24th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
You are all missing the point.
He is saying that replacing Posada for a SINGLE GAME may not have been as big of a risk as people say, especially when you consider the possible benefit Molina might have in helping AJ’s psyche.
If AJ feels mentally comfortable with Molina and not with Posada, then that is going to overcome the 1.75% difference in win probability between them.
Thus, it is a good stat to use when evaluating whether to bench certain players on certain days, etc. This is not a tool for overall, full-season evaluation.
You guys are missing the point.
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People seem to also forget that with Molina catching him in the post season 5 times that he also had two stinkers to go with the three outstanding games. Who gets credit and blame for what?
SJ -
You’re not wrong, but the Yankees (I believe) are more concerned with winning than with the overall development of a guy who they are hoping will be their number 2 catcher for a couple of years.
If we were talking about Romaine or Montero it would be a different story.
Again, I think you’re probably right that at the start of the season Cervelli will work with different guys at different times, but I just believe that by Memorial Day or the All Star Break at the latest Cervelli will catch Burnett more often than not.
gb7-
you’re not scaring me. there’s no way you’ll go near a frozen pond. those old bones of yours don’t go above the mason dixon line in winter .
but thank’s for the offer. i always knew i could count on you.
i think posada is miami based. wasn’t he spotted working out there with alex a few weeks ago?
I was looking at Randy Winn’s numbers and I know he’s really old but he would be a monster at the bottom of our lineup. At worst, he would be able to sub for all 3 OF spots. I think Damon is our best choice even though I am not a fan and I’d love Jermaine Dye but I think Winn is a better option than most think.
He has had seven straight years of double-digit totals in home runs and steals, while continuing to post batting averages mostly in the .280-to-.300 range. He’ll be 35 by midseason but if we could sign him for a year I’d be all for it. He has the speed Girardi will love and he’s known as a leader and great clubhouse guy so he’d fit in with our group really well. He could help Gardner in his development as well with the wealth of knowledge Winn has gained in his 11 year career. Just a thought.
Conclusion:
The rumored 2 year offers to Damon were ghost offers meant to create the facade of a market for Damon. Boras tried to create an illusion of buyers to entice other teams to bid on Damon. He used the Yankees as a phantom buyer by floating the 2 year ‘offers’ through the press. He basically used the Yankees to try to extort more money/years from other GM’s. It shows great disrespect to the Yankees to use them like that but hey, agents gotta do what agents gotta do.
I knew Damon was leaving NY the minute the world series ended. He wasn’t in celebration mode at all. During his first interview, if you watch it, you can plainly see Damon was in free agency mode, campaigning for himself and emphasizing his contributions to the Yankees rather than talking about any kind of team effort or Yankees pride.
It’s like he already had a good idea that the Yankees weren’t very eager to bring him back – a long time ago.
Just something else to keep in mind regarding Jorge.
Last year he started 88 games behind the plate and missed most of May. Even if healthy, at 38, I don’t see Jorge starting more than 100 to 110 games behind the plate.
randy l.
January 24th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
gb7-
you’re not scaring me. there’s no way you’ll go near a frozen pond. those old bones of yours don’t go above the mason dixon line in winter .
but thank’s for the offer. i always knew i could count on you.
i think posada is miami based. wasn’t he spotted working out there with alex a few weeks ago?
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I’m just being the new, kinder, gentler me. always willing to help.
I can’t imagine Posada and Rodriguez working out together….nobody likes Rodriguez….according to the media and many fans. I would have thought that maybe Rodriguez would have moved his workouts to Tampa.
Then, that would mean moving his family/residence, too.I’d hoped that Cano might have stayed the winter in Miami/Tampa, too. As long as he doesn’t take for granted that he can just throw his bat out there and get his hits. Would love to see that one big step from very good to border-line great.
Oh, and the credit for AJ’s two stinkers in the postseason go to the opponents. He wasn’t facing the Kansas City Royals and getting lit up – he was facing the Angels and Phillies.
“[Winn] has had seven straight years of double-digit totals in home runs and steals, while continuing to post batting averages mostly in the .280-to-.300 range.”
__________________________________
He dropped all the way down to 2 HRs last year (in 538 ABs), a .262 BA and .318 OBP. His OPS+ was a dreadful 75, compared to Melky’s 99.
Yanks may sign him but I wouldn’t expect a whole lot.
With the Rangers sale now finalized I would expect the new ownership to want to make a splash – I would add them into the mix for Damon.
There are a few people (Heyman and Olney) who think Sheets makes sense for them, and maybe he does, but I just can’t imagine that the Rangers would want to put their fortunes on the unstable arms of Rich Harden and Ben Sheets – sure if both are healthy that’s a tremendous duo for the top of the rotation, but when was the last time they were healthy?
Timo -
I would say a player is entitled to have an off year. Winn’s age is cause for concern (sometimes players don’t decline, they fall off a cliff) but if the Yankees bring him in on a small deal it’s a no risk situation for them.
As it stands, they’re not assuming any less risk by starting Brett Gardner in LF – no one knows if he can hit over the course of a full season either.
David,
Try as you might I don’t think you will be able to identify all of the variables that make this a useful statistic. Accounting for the intagibles (relationships, team play, leadership, aggresiveness….) may be more significant than your calculated 1.75%. Stats tell us central tendencies, your central tendency can be very misleading….Chaos
And not sure how many of you saw it on MLBTraderumors.com but Marc Craig of the Star Ledger says that he got a text from Damon saying he will sign with a team this week.
My guesses:
Orioles
Rangers
Braves
Chip, I live in SF Bay Area so I get to see Winn quite a bit. In addition to offensive drop off, he’s shown signs of Damon-like decline in the field.
I do believe Yanks have been considering Winn all along (in addition to Johnson and Nady) so would not surprise me if it happens. I don’t see it as low risk because (a) I’m not a Gardner believe either and (b) I don’t think it will be easy to get someone at the trade deadline who can play LF (or CF) in the Stadium and contribute to the lineup.
Damon signs with the Braves who then trade Melky Cabrera back to the Yanks for Mitre, Albaladejo and a so-so prospect. Braves get a couple of potential arms and save about $ Two Million, which just so happens to be the Yanks’ alleged budget for LF.
Bret — You do understand the difference between what you “know” and what you “believe” right?
My guess is still the Yankees
why on earth would the O’s sign Damon? They have 3 good young OF. It would be stupid. The O’s need pitching.
Great post Dave. Would love to see this same analysis for Gardner vs Damon.
The O’s actually have about 6 outfielders.
The Rangers just signed Vlad and I doubt they will sign another similar player to him.
The Braves are cheap and supposedly only have a couple million to spend themselves.
The O’s seem set at LF and DH with Reimold, Scott, Pie, and Wiggington
The Rangers do too with Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Vlad, and Julio Borbon as options for the OF and DH. If they make a splash it’ll be for Ben Sheets.
Not too sure the Braves are going have room in the budget for Damon.
Timo,
I don’t think the Yankees would need to find a major upgrade at the trade deadline – remember, whomever the Yankees bring in to play LF – odds are he’s going to bat 9th in the lineup. As for Winn’s defense in LF – having not seen many San Fran games I can’t speak to that – but I would suggest that Yankee Stadium LF is probably a smaller track to cover than San Fran’s RF.
Rocco –
I know the O’s have Reimold in LF – but I think that what the team needs is someone in the lineup with a history of being a winner. Someone who can help bring along a young lineup. Damon would be a leader on that team and in the clubhouse.
Blake -
It’s possible that Damon could come back – I just really can’t imagine it at the number Cashman says he’s willing to spend.
GB7
I’m used to the climate here in the Northeast so for proper compesation I would consider a drive to the Cape to act as your agent.
Good post, and this may make sense for the regular season, but not for the post season. It works in the regular season, because the amount of pitchers you face is a lot more than the pitchers you face in the post season. AJ was the Yankees #2 pitcher, so your analysis for offense needed projections should be based on when facing a #2 pitcher for a top caliber team. Otherwise the extremes within the season will corrupt your data from a true outcome.
“Not too sure the Braves are going have room in the budget for Damon.”
It depends on what their 2010 payroll budget is because their payroll last year was 95M and they’re currently at about 77M, but that’s not with their full 25 man roster under contract. They don’t have any arbitration cases up, but they have a couple of players that should be getting some raises over the league minimum.
Chip,
Nah it won’t be for 2 million, it will be for about 5 plus some incentives. After all the talk and posturing it still makes the most sense for both sides and ill believe Damon signs with another team when I see it.
David:
Is you analysis based on a generic Yankees pitching staff rather than one specific pitcher, Burnett, for example. Is it based on an everyday catcher, as opposed to a part time one? We know that Jose Molina, as limited as he is offensively, would have even worse stats if he played more regularly. There is a reason for being a back up. 1. Your’e not as good as as others at the position, and 2. your stats decline as playing time increases.
Blake -
I just don’t see it making sense.
The Yankee lineup is fine as is with Johnson in the 2 spot and defensively they are much better with Gardner in the OF than they would be with Damon out there.
I won’t shed a tear if Johnny does come back, but I just don’t see the need. What the Yankees need is either a RH bat for the bench or someone to compete with Gardner for LF.
The Yankees did offer Damon a 2 year deal. That’s a fact.
It was put on the table three days before Matsui signed with the Angels. Boras turned it down.
It was removed after that and Boras came back to them, a day before they signed Nick Johnson, with a counteroffer (also for 2 years) that was turned down.
The Yankees wanted him back for 2 years. Once they signed Johnson and traded for Vasquez, their offer (the one they currently have extended to him) was reduced to 1 year.
The Orioles have no interest in paying Johnny Damon. Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis will be their OF (hopefully in their view) for years to come.
New post
As far as having a “winner” in their lineup, that’s not their focus right now.
They know they aren’t winning anything this year, negating that need.
Their focus is giving their young everyday players and young arms every opportunity to play and gain experience.
They aren’t interested in adding a veteran player to upset that plan.
MaineYankee
January 24th, 2010 at 1:38 pm
GB7
I’m used to the climate here in the Northeast so for proper compesation I would consider a drive to the Cape to act as your agent.
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LMAO. I’m not sure that this calls for you to be my second, Maine. It’s not a duel….yet. Of course, this may just be Randy’s attempt to get me on the ice, because he knows he can’t beat me on the golf course.
I’ve had the best golf instructor possible. Of course Orville Moody, the coward would never admit to it. I still blame him for getting me sent to Vietnam.
Chip,
I don’t think its the end of the World if Damon doesn’t come back but I think he does make them a better team. I think while Damon has declined as a fielder I think the extent of that decline is overstated by many people. He has never been able to throw and there are much worse LFers in the big leauges. I also think people are overestimating the production Johnson will provide in the #2 spot a little. He will be fine there but won’t be the threat that Damon was IMO and let’s face it, he gets hurt a lot.
I think Damon makes the lineup better and gives some security in case of injury. The Yankees will be ok without him but I think for one year he does make them better. I know many don’t agree and that’s ok.
SJ44
January 24th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
The Yankees did offer Damon a 2 year deal. That’s a fact.
—
Not really.
If the Yankees front office read the outfielder market last year with Abreu to a tee then this year is no different.
If they offered 2 years to Damon before any team offered 1 and in a market where no team will sign him for two then the Yankees in one year flat went from being smart and savvy to stupid.
The market for Damon was and has always been the same as Abreu’s last year – 1 year max.
Eventually when Damon signs for 1 year and 5 mil somewhere, you’re saying the Yankees overshot by 15 million dollars with that initial rumored 2 year 20 million dollar offer.
A 15 million dollar mistake on a 37 year old outfielder?
Correction:
A 15 million dollar miscalculation on a 37 year old outfielder?
no
We don’t introduce new statistics at Yale. We already know them all.
Have you yet lived down the embarrassment that is Harold Bloom?
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