The numbers of a gut decision
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 24, 2010 
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
A few days ago, we had a guest post about advanced statistics taking away the human side of baseball. Today, we had a guest post about an advanced statistic used to evaluate a postseason decision that was largely based on the human side of baseball (the relationship between a pitcher and his catcher). I’m sure numbers were in play when Joe Girardi chose to start Jose Molina with A.J. Burnett, but that was ultimately a gut decision by the manager.
What I loved about David’s post this morning was that he didn’t try to answer whether Girardi made the right decision, he only looked at just how much of an offensive risk Girardi was taking.
In a follow-up post on his own blog, David added two bits of criticism about his own work: 1. He didn’t allow for the playoffs, in which expected run totals are lower, and thus Posada’s offense might have been more important. 2. The difference in expected wins for Posada and Molina were not based on games in which they specifically caused the win.
To me, that’s a key point, and it’s actually part of what I liked about David’s post. The reality is that a single, pre-selected player is unlikely to make the difference between a win and a loss. David’s numbers suggest that roughly 70 percent of games would end the exact same way, whether Posada or Molina was in the lineup. Occasionally Molina’s offense would actually be an improvement (you have to allow for the fact that Molina could go 4-for-4 on a night Posada would strikeout four times).
Fact is, the Yankees won three out of five Burnett starts in the postseason. He pitched especially well in the three wins, pitched terribly in one of the losses and had a bit of a Jekyll-and-Hyde game in Los Angeles. If Molina had any impact in that brilliant Game 2 of the World Series, then I’d say the decision was well worth it (although, as a general rule, I agree with the go-with-your-best-players theory).
———
If you’re interested in more of David’s work, here’s a study he did on payroll efficiency.
The only problem with that Chad is, we have no idea if AJ would have had the same performance with Posada being the plate.
AJ’s best in season work came with Jorge behind the plate.
Its one of life’s unanswered questions.
I’m just glad the end result was favorable to all.
SJ44,
When Damon signs for 1 year and 5 mil somewhere, then the Yankees overshot by 15 million dollars with that initial rumored 2 year 20 million dollar offer.
A 15 million dollar miscalculation on a 37 year old outfielder?
um, I don’t think so.
But it’s a fact, right?
I think AJs better numbers with Molina during the reg season were more coincidence than anything and didn’t think they warranted taking posadas bat out of the lineup, but obviously I don’t know everything Girardi did when he made the decision.
Bottom line is the Yanks won so can’t fault him too much.
girardi should hve seen that gem he threw against the redsox when we won in extra innings on a homerun by arod
yeah the catcher was non the less Jorge posada all ngiht
Its a fact bret.
You don’t understand the business.
When the Yankees made their offer to Damon, Nick Johnson wasn’t in the equation. His salary slot was taken up by Johnson.
The fact is, in late January, the money available to him at this time is not what it was in December anywhere because teams budgets have filled up.
I KNOW this for a fact because I know the player and the agent. I know the offer, I know who turned it down, and I know what transpired afterward.
Just because he will sign a smaller deal doesn’t mean he didn’t have a 2 year offer on the table from the Yankees.
It means, the market has dried up since December (for the above reasons) and that offer is no longer available to him from anybody.
We won, so it all worked out, but boy if I were the manager I would have started Posada.
Of course, if I were the manager the team would most likely be an unmitigated disaster, but still…
Chad – were you at the BBWAA awards dinner last night? If so, was this your first time? Did you have the opportunity to talk with any of the Yankees players or management there? Thanks.
The Yankees wouldn’t have “overshot” their offer to Damon.
They wouldn’t have signed Nick Johnson.
Damon would be making about 2 million more per year than Johnson under their December offer.
They would have paid Johnny Damon more money in December than they paid Nick Johnson.
DH would have either been a revolving door or, they may have looked at some of the other, lower cost options out there.
You may not want to believe it, just as you didn’t believe anything anybody wrote about Matt Holliday.
However, the Yankees did offer Johnny a 2 year deal in December and if he said “yes”, he would be a Yankee today.
When Cashman signed Johnson Boras lost all of his leverage for Damon because the Yankees no longer needed him.
Either Cashman did that because he was really moving on from Damon or because he thought it might allow him to get him much cheaper later on.. The answer to that question is still to be determined.
I agree with Chad’s “go with your best players” theory.
That said, starting pitcher is more important than starting catcher. So if AJ with Molina is a better pitcher than AJ with Posada then it was the right call.
Also, I don’t know that you can measure a guy’s comfort level with statistics. It’s one of those intangible things. And, in the end, Posada was going to need regular rest and with Molina starting for AJ he got it. No harm, no foul and I won’t be shocked if a similar pattern emerges with Cervelli this year.
Posada started 88 games behind the dish this season after missing most of May. Assume he doesn’t spend any time on the DL that’s still just about 100 – 110 games, meaning Cervelli’s going to need to play at least 50 games – my guess is that the majority of those games will come with AJ and Javy on the mound.
I think it’s obvious that Nick Johnson was the Yankees’ third choice behind Damon and Matsui. When it became obvious that Damon wasn’t going to sign for the money that the Yankees were offering and Matsui was off the table the Yankees had to move on to Johnson, the fact that Damon’s still around doesn’t change the fact that I think, in Cashman’s mind, the signing of Nick Johnson removed the need for the Yankees to bring back Damon.
If Damon will come back at the Yankees number than that’s icing, but it is not something he feels the need to get done.
Consider that last year the Yankees held firm on a number for Andy but Cashman was a lot more vigorous in trying to get him to accept a deal. That’s not the case here. You don’t hear about Cashman stopping in to visit face to face with Johnny…
Well, it’s been printed over and over that the Yanks offered Damon 2 years for $14 million before they signed Johnson.
So I don’t know why that’s being disputed.
What I like to know is whether Boras will receive any bad press when Damon eventually signs for a low single season contract on a 2nd tier team.
Let me add, “it’s been printed over and over” in the press.
Chronology of events:
1. Arn Tellem calls Cashman and tells him he wants to talk deal for Matsui. Cashman tells him Damon is the priority right now, he has an offer out to him, and can’t do anything with Matsui until he hears from Damon.
2. Tellem then tells Cashman he has an offer for Matsui and needs an answer. Cashman repeats his priority list to him and tells him to hold on if he can. The Angels give Matsui 48 hours to take their deal. Tellem, correctly reading the market (no other offers for Matsui and Boras will likely wait it out with Damon), takes the Angels offer.
3. After Damon turns down the Yankees offer, and with Matsui gone to Anaheim, Cashman moves toward Nick Johnson and gets a deal done quickly. At the same time, he’s engaged in talks with Vasquez, with a deal for him coming shortly thereafter.
I think teams are starting to catch on to ‘The Notorious Scott Boras’, and are calling him on his BS. The Yankees were offering Damon a contract which, in retrospect, was definitely the best offer that Damon had. And based on reports it sounded like Damon wanted to take it but his agent decided that the Yankees would be SO hung up on bringing Damon back that they’d bend over to every whim. At this point, whenever Boras says that his player has multiple offers from other teams on the table, I can’t see ANY gm not taking that with a grain of salt.
An agent can only overprice so many players before teams start catching on, and especially in the current market, it would have probably been best for him to ease it up a little bit
I do think teams have finally caught onto the “mystery team” garbage.
Bill Madden is right. Even last week, Scott was pulling that number with the Yankees. That will just get ignored.
Hopefully, Johnny makes a decision on what’s best for he and his family. If he does, its an easy decision.
Virtually every statistical analysis of the Posada v. Molina/AJ quesiton prior to the playoffs found that the difference was negligible for a game or two.
The reasons to play Posada are: 1) He is a far better offensive player and as a result, far more likely to get hits; and 2) Molina is in a defensive decline, so what he brings to the table is close to zero.
3. After Damon turns down the Yankees offer, and with Matsui gone to Anaheim, Cashman moves toward Nick Johnson and gets a deal done quickly. At the same time, he’s engaged in talks with Vasquez, with a deal for him coming shortly thereafter.
——
So SJ, had Matsui not signed with the Angels, Damon turned down our offer, would we have signed Matsui as DH instead of NJ?
And if we did would we still be in the Damon game we are in today where we have a DH only in NJ and are still considering Damon at the right price?
We always assumed that it would be Damon or Matsui and not both but by still being in the Damon hunt it is effectively the same as signing both Damon and Matsui as NJ is a DH only.
Your thoughts
SJ -
We’re all aware of when these things happened. We’re also all aware that Damon was the primary target. It was talked about almost all season long and further evidenced by Cashman’s comments that he wasn’t going to allow post season performance to influence his decisions – an obvious “see ya” to Matsui.”
The Yankees had already watched their plan b (Matsui) sign elsewhere. They are just as good offensively with Johnson and Granderson as they were with Matsui and Damon and are better defensively with Gardner than Damon.
As for that Damon guy, the reason he should choose the Yankees is that playing half his game at NYS give him the best chance to have the kind of season that would enable him to get the best contract he can get in 2011.
He also needs to get his vision checked out.
“They are just as good offensively with Johnson and Granderson as they were with Matsui and Damon and are better defensively with Gardner than Damon.”
They project to be. That doesn’t mean they will be (and I like the moves).
Rich-You’re right, but on that same line of thought there’s a good chance they could be even better.
SJ -
It is never an easy decision when ego is involved. Granted, most of us would be perfectly happy to take a 5 million dollar contract to play baseball, but imagine if you had done your job very well and your boss turned to you and said, “Listen, we like what you’re doing, but we want to slash your salary by nearly 66%”
That can’t be an easy concept for Damon to get his head around and, much like a Kenny Lofton or Mike Piazza, he might decide that he’s made enough money over his career and doesn’t need to sing for his supper and just walk away. I also tend to agree with Jack Curry who believes that for that same ego, it might be easier for Damon to accept playing for another team at 2 mil then coming back to the Yankees for that same number.
True, Wait.
If Damon continues to listen to Boras, he’s got no one to blame but himself. I see people on boards blaming the situation on Boras and, while that may be true to some extent, I find it impossibly to sympathize with a Damon who almost refuses to take control of his career. Now, that’s assuming Damon would prefer to return to the Yankees. If he honestly is peeved at them or just wants the most $$$, then he might not get a job until after ST begins.
Maddens article was fine right up until he trashed the Yankees and Nick Johnson.
GO JETS!
Rich –
Agreed – they project to be. They also project to be healthier. Granted Nick Johnson is not the embodiment of health, but I’ll take my chances with Gardner in LF over Damon’s body at this point. And Nick Johnson’s health is a wash up against Matsui’s.
Point of fact-CHONE projection system pegs them to score 935 runs.
Now that’s probably overstating it a bit but even so our offense is very formidable.
Madden feels he needs to trash the Yankees at every opportunity. He loathes Lon Trost and Randy Levine, hates the new stadium and was very tight with Joe Torre.
I take him about as seriously as I take Lupica.
Ray,
Its hard to say but, I think they would have signed Matsui if they waited a week.
That said, Tellem right right for making that deal because you can’t run the risk the Yankees would have paid him Anaheim money.
The thing is, if we sign Damon and he gets hurt our backup is…Brett Gardner. And since a lot of us would be fine not even getting Damon at all, him getting hurt would really be that much of a disaster.
I was sorry that the PH post brought up the tired debate on AJ/Posada/Molina. I don’t know if Girardi doesn’t trust AJ, but if he does not, he either needs to speak to him or to Cash, because AJ is going to be here for a few more years. AJ does not need to have his hand held – he was terrific with Posada before his August slide. It’s a bit insulting to think that a grown man needs his hand held – for some reason, people think AJ is that kind of guy, like a Mussina. I love Girardi, but I am not confident that he’s going to make the right decision in ST. He clearly refused to listen to AJ’s pleas to let him pitch to Posada, and that indicates that he really thinks he can not.
He didn’t trash the Yankees in his Sunday column. He trashed Boras.
Its the most accurate portrayal of what has gone on in the Damon negotiations anyone has written to date.
Chip, I despise Madden. I never read him except on very, very rare occasions. Lupica? I haven’t read him in years.
SJ, if you read the end of the article, he trashed the NJ signing…..which is the same thing as trashing the Yankees.
It’s Damon’s fault if he ends up where he doesn’t want to be, anyway.
SJ44
January 24th, 2010 at 2:58 pm
Ray,
Its hard to say but, I think they would have signed Matsui if they waited a week.
That said, Tellem right right for making that deal because you can’t run the risk the Yankees would have paid him Anaheim money.
—–
But SJ my question was that if we did sign Matsui would we still be chasing Damon like we appear to be even after signing a DH only in NJ?
just read the madden article. boras is what he is, a lawyer who tries to get his clients the best deal. his tactics have been brought to light, now it’s his turn to be a major league hitter and make adjustments.
the reality is that boras got damon two 4our year deals, you can’t blame johnny for believing in the man. damon has made a lot of money in the bigs, partly because of boras’s skill. you can’t blame the player that much. hopefully his time with his yankee teammates will make him realize what’s at stake.
that being said, is there actually another team that would pay 5 mill for him? doesn’t seem like it, so cash is right to sit at 2 mill or move on
Did I miss anything? I ended up watching the Roddick/Gonzalez match until 4 in the morning. And it was so good, I watched the last 2 sets on replay when I woke up.
But I notice that the pinch hitter brought up a controversial subject. Will have to go back and check it out. Sure to have some fireworks there.
Nice catch on 3rd & 6 for the Jets.
“The reality is that a single, pre-selected player is unlikely to make the difference between a win and a loss. ”
chad-
that makes little sense to me.
take arod out of a game and there is little effect on a win ?
even if you say one guy matters so little, surely you would say taking out arod, jeter, cano, and teixeira out of a game would have a huge effect on a single game.
it’s logical then that any one those guys would have about one fourth of that huge effect.
one fourth of a huge effect is significant, yet you say it doesn’t matter.
i think The reality is that a single, pre-selected player is likely to make the difference between a win and a loss .
i guess we can debate the definition of “likely”, but common sense says that you want to have your best players on the field on any given day.
Ray,
if they signed Matsui, I don’t believe they would be talking to Damon now.
They were never bringing both guys back. It was one or the other, with Damon being the priority, or neither guy.
Bringing back both was never in their plans.
ISTM David’s guest blog has implications that go beyond Posada and Molina in the post season. That study implies that for any game during the season, if the Yanks start their backup catcher and plan to have Posada pinch-hit for him after a couple of at bats, that will only cost them a 2% chance of winning the game, based on offense alone. That’s a small number.
Based on that study, if Cervelli were to start every single game in 2010 with Posada coming in to pinch hit for him late in the game, the Yanks would win only 1 or 2 fewer games than if Posada caught every single game. And, the difference would be even less if Cervellli plays better defense.
In the past, the Yanks have insisted that fielding ability was more important than hitting, when choosing a backup catcher. David’s study shows that they were right.
Damon guzzled the Boras koolaid. Last Aug he said he knew he would have to take a pay cut. Boras slapped that taste out of his mouth. Now the Yankees have an messy ordeal!
“Virtually every statistical analysis of the Posada v. Molina/AJ quesiton prior to the playoffs found that the difference was negligible for a game or two.”
rich in nj-
simple question?
how many total win shares are awarded for any win ?
i’m assuming it’s one ( though that’s just a wild guess).
if it’s one , then doesn’t each player’s contribution to that win become a very small number?
at what point does a small number become a negligible number?
if the yankees play the royals, 80 % of the game will be split even though the yankees clearly have the best players.
it’s that last twenty percent of games that the yankees separate them themselves.
is twenty percent a negligible amount or just a small number.
when you reduce down to one game, that twenty % difference that plays out over a whole season off course doesn’t amount to much.
i guess you’d say that in any one game the yankees have a twenty % chance bettter than the royals do of winning the game.
but the yankees are made up of 25 players. when you divide 20% by 25 i guess each player is a small number.
but negligible?
i just don’t see the point of this kind of thinking.
the only thing i can make of it is no one knows what is going to happen in one game.
how believing that makes someone say it’s ok to play a bad player over a good player in any one game makes no sense to me.
over time if you play your good players, you’ll win more.
“3. After Damon turns down the Yankees offer, and with Matsui gone Anaheim, Cashman moves toward Nick Johnson and gets a deal done quickly. At the same time, he’s engaged in talks with Vasquez, with a deal for him coming shortly thereafter”
Engaged in talks with Vazquez? You mean with the Braves for Vazquez, right?
Nice pump fake by the rookie for the TD pass.
Terrible call by the Colts.
I dont think Burnett pitched “especially well” in game 2 vs the twins. He got real lucky when the twins made a baserunning blunder to cost them at least a run and he walked a bunch of guys. That was a mediocre performance. Agreed about game 2 of the WS though and he pitched pretty well in game 2 of the ALCS also.
“ISTM David’s guest blog has implications that go beyond Posada and Molina in the post season”
david in california-
i think it means you and david should stay away from las vegas during the baseball season.
.
Frank,
Yes, that’s what I meant.
January 26th, 2010 at 9:13 am
New Year’s gifts, to find, ——www. sbbshoe .com——
Welcome you to rush to buy Best quality, Best reputation , Best services Service is our Lift. Nike shox $35Handbags(Coach lv fendi d&g) $35Tshirts (Polo ,ed hardy,lacoste) $16
www. sbbshoe .com