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Pinch hitting: Lucas Vanderwarker

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 25, 2010 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Next up in the Pinch Hitters series is Lucas Vanderwarker, who crunched some numbers to write about Derek Jeter’s chances of breaking Pete Rose’s all-time hits record.

Lucas grew up in upstate New York, and his grandfather played “some sort of minor league ball for the Yankees” back in the 1930s. “Being a Yankees fan was never really much of a question,” Lucas wrote. When his family moved to Vermont, Lucas grew up with surrounded primarily by childhood friends who were cheering for the Red Sox.

Now working as a youth pastor near Indiana, PA — which happens to be where one of my closest friends went to college — Lucas has found himself occasionally pulling for the lovable losers of Western Pennsylvania. “I’m first and foremost a Yankees fan,” Lucas wrote. “But I don’t know if it’s my pity or my love for an underdog that has made me a Pirates fan as well. Plus, it’s always nice to get into a major league game for dirt cheap.”

———

A friend of mine, one who’s not a Yankees fan, recently said to me, “Derek Jeter has nothing left to prove. He’s done everything.” My thoughts immediately turned to one milestone that belongs in Cooperstown: The all-time hits record. I’m not here to debate whether Pete Rose deserves to be in the HOF. I am here to answer the question, “Does Jeter have any chance of catching Pete Rose?”

I think we all agree that Derek Jeter is already a first ballot Hall of Famer. There’s really nothing more he has to do to achieve baseball immortality. Jeter has more money that he could ever spend. He already has five World Series rings. He’s won Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards. He’s passed Lou Gehrig for the Yankees’ hits record. The question is, how hungry will Jeter be by the time he is 43? He is a special player who seems to love baseball more than anything, and if he has a chance to accomplish something truly historic, such as getting 4,000 hits, Jeter might have plenty of desire to get it done. Furthermore, if the Yankees are competitive, there is a chance that Jeter will be even more motivated to play, in the hopes of grabbing yet another World Series trophy.

Through 14 full seasons, Jeter stands at 2,747 career hits. He has played in 2,123 career games (not counting the 15 games he played in 1995) for an average of 152 games per season.

Through Rose’s first 14 seasons, he played in 61 more games than Jeter and accumulated only 15 more hits. For the sake of argument, we can pretty much say that Jeter is about in the same position that Rose was at this point of his career.

Rose went on to play 10 more years. He played in 1,378 games in those seasons, slapping 1,494 base knocks to give him a total of 4,256. Simple math tells us that Rose averaged slightly more than 149 hits per season on the back end of his career. Rose played until the age of 45, and his production didn’t begin to drop off significantly until the last four years of his career. The six seasons prior to that, he failed to have more than 170 hits only once (in 1981 when MLB experienced a work stoppage due to a player strike).

Let’s assume Jeter plays 10 more seasons to give him the same amount as Rose. Let’s go a step further and assume two of those seasons will be plagued with injury (let’s be honest, he is getting older). In eight healthy seasons, Jeter would need to average 157 hits to reach 4,000. Should he be healthy every season, he would only need 125 per season.

This leads us to the final number to discuss — 4,256. Again, let’s assume Jeter has eight healthy seasons left. He would need to average 189 hits per season. Should he remain healthy for 10 more years, he would only need 151 per year. With a current average of 196 hits per season, it is statistically possible.

Despite all of the statistics, this argument unfortunately boils down to nothing more than speculation. I’ve learned over the past 14 seasons never to doubt or second guess Derek Jeter. When you do, he’s right there to prove you wrong. When people began to doubt his ability to be an above average defensive shortstop, he worked that much harder to stay sharp and get better. This has nothing to do with, “Is Jeter a better player than Rose?” Pete Rose, while he may have serious character flaws, was one incredible hitter. However, I believe that if Derek Jeter has the desire to continue playing baseball at the age of 43 — the age he would be after eight more seasons – and if the New York Yankees continue to put a championship caliber team on the field, and if he stays healthy, then Derek Jeter will join the 4,000 hit club and eventually surpass Pete “Charlie Hustle” Rose for the most hits ever by a Major League player.

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385 Responses to “Pinch hitting: Lucas Vanderwarker”

  1. diabolic January 25th, 2010 at 9:39 am

    Never gonna happen.

  2. Bret the Hitman January 25th, 2010 at 9:46 am

    Jeter is a fierce competitor. It’s hard to imagine him walking away from the game. He’d play it in a wheel chair if he could.

  3. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 9:48 am

    Nice job Lucas!

    My favorite part: Let’s assume Jeter plays 10 more seasons-sounds good to me-I hate to think about him retiring ;)

  4. CD January 25th, 2010 at 9:48 am

    What position does Derek switch to?

    Cause he won’t be playing short stop at age 43.

  5. Gus G. January 25th, 2010 at 9:50 am

    I love these kind of discussions. He could statistically do it, but what position would he be playing in 8-10 years? Would he move to second? He doesn’t have the power to be the full-time DH or corner outfielder. Does he stay at short?

  6. AL Duque January 25th, 2010 at 9:51 am

    five more years at short stop and than switsch to 2B or LF!

  7. lefty January 25th, 2010 at 9:53 am

    Nothing to worry about. Jeter and Rivera will never retire, and never slow down. They’ll be clocking rings in 2040.

    Seriously though, I just hope the contract negotiations work out well so whatever Derek accomplishes, it’s in Yankee Pinstripes and not dodger blue.

  8. ditmars1929 January 25th, 2010 at 9:53 am

    I certainly wouldn’t doubt Jeter. Regarding his position of the future, I’m guessing left field.

  9. blake January 25th, 2010 at 9:54 am

    I think a big determing factor will be if the Yankees are still winning championships and if he is still contributing to them. I can see jeter playing into his 40s if he’s still winning and playing well but I can’t see him hanging on like rose did just to break the record.

  10. Captain Chaos January 25th, 2010 at 9:55 am

    Nicely done Luke! I think it will be fun to watch. They say the last thing to go is the batting skills so I certainly can see him hanging in their for a few more years, not sure about 8-10. A couple of solid years and that goal is attainable.

  11. blake January 25th, 2010 at 9:57 am

    Personally I think RF would be a good spot for Jeter after he is done at SS. Less ground to cover in YS and his arm is plenty strong enough..plus he has a storied history with that right field wall.

    I can see the Yankees signing a LFer next offseason and then moving Jeter to RF once Swishers contract is up unless he’s still playing SS well.

  12. Chip January 25th, 2010 at 9:58 am

    Yeah there’s no way Derek breaks the hit record. He’s likely going to sign a 4 or 5 year deal after this season and hang ‘em up after that.

    By the time that contract is up Derek will be 40, a first ballot hall of famer, and have more than enough money to ride off into the sunset.

    Frankly I would rather have it happen that way then for him to hang on as a shell of his former self.

  13. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 10:00 am

    lefty
    January 25th, 2010 at 9:53 am
    Nothing to worry about. Jeter and Rivera will never retire, and never slow down. They’ll be clocking rings in 2040.

    ************************
    lefty, I like the way you think! ;)

  14. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:00 am

    Couple thoughts:

    1) Hard to imagine Jeter hanging around long enough to do it. It just doesn’t seem to happen in this day and age with the salaries the way they are. Are there 5 guys in baseball over 40 right now? If so, how many of those are relief pitchers? The money allows them to get out while they can still walk out and live a nice life beyond the game.

    2) I think Jeter has far too much pride to close out his career in the manner Rose did. Last 5 years of Rose’s career resulted in OBP+ of 86. He was a circus act moreso than a productive ballplayer. Can’t imagine Jeter hanging on like that if he feels he can’t play at a high level.

  15. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:01 am

    “He doesn’t have the power to be the full-time DH or corner outfielder. Does he stay at short?”

    I’ve always found this reasoning to be stuck in the 70′s. Back before getting power outta SS, 2B, CF and C became fairly commonplace, you “needed” power from the corners. It really doesn’t apply in 2010 and beyond.

    Seriously, when people cite a cliche’ like that, they should consider the origin of the cliche’ and ask whether it’s relevant anymore.

    I understand we’re talking about 3-4, 5 years from now, but THIS Yankees team might get 90-100 HRs outta C/2B/SS/CF. To suggest they “need” certain HR power outta LF (or DH) for that matter is missing the point (particularly when they could get 110+ HRs outta 3B/1B/RF as well).

  16. blake January 25th, 2010 at 10:02 am

    Chip,
    I agree, I would like to see him get 4000 though and I think he’s got a shot at that. I can’t see Jeter playing once he can no longer contribute at a high level.

  17. CD January 25th, 2010 at 10:06 am

    what’s Derek gonna do without baseball?

    he spends 8 months of the year n uniform. the lack of competition is gonna kill him. XBox is no substitute.

  18. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:06 am

    86 = Rose’s OPS+ his last 5 years, rather than OBP.

  19. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:08 am

    “he spends 8 months of the year n uniform. the lack of competition is gonna kill him. XBox is no substitute.”

    But Minka is.

    I’d imagine he does what a lot of ex-Yankees are doing. Maybe the occasional appearance on YES, a little coaching in spring training, and general ambassador of goodwill for the organization.

  20. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:08 am

    As Michael Kay will often reminded us, Jeter seems to already be thinking of 8 or so more years). I imagine that number has something to do with 4000 or the all-time record.

    The thing about Jeter is you KNOW he won’t ever stop preparing in the off-season. Yeah, maybe Rose was a oldies tour his last 5 years, but I also can’t imagine Rose worked in the off-seasons they way Jeter does and will. You have to think he’ll continue to address specific things in the off-seasons (like he did last year) to keep his competitive edge.

    And Jeter’s swing projects to age well.

    I think he’ll keep going so long as he can maintain a certain level of production. And given he’s (let’s face it) a mostly singles hitter, I can see that being for a while.

  21. ditmars1929 January 25th, 2010 at 10:09 am

    CD
    January 25th, 2010 at 10:06 am
    what’s Derek gonna do without baseball?

    he spends 8 months of the year n uniform. the lack of competition is gonna kill him. XBox is no substitute.
    ______________________________________________________

    CD, I heard him once express an interest in becoming an owner after retirement, which I found very interesting, although he didn’t clarify if he meant a major league club, or a minor league one. If that doesn’t pan out, he’ll probably become another “Yankee ambassador”, and also a spring training instructor until he figures out if he ever wants to manage. No way could I see him in the booth, however.

  22. Andy Stankiewicz January 25th, 2010 at 10:10 am

    Great job Lucas.

    It’s funny– watching the Yanks in the late 80s/early 90s as a little kid, I couldn’t imagine life without Donnie Baseball. Thankfully, Jeter stepped right in and filled the void. Now, after spending the better part of my teens and 20s watching The Captain do this thing, I’m wondering the same thing– how impossibly difficult is going to be to say goodbye to him one day?

  23. CD January 25th, 2010 at 10:11 am

    Yeah, maybe Rose was a oldies tour his last 5 years, but I also can’t imagine Rose worked in the off-seasons they way Jeter does and will.

    I wouldn’t bet against Rose ;)

  24. blake January 25th, 2010 at 10:13 am

    Does anyone else think RF would be a better fit than LF after Jetes is done at SS? They are going to get a LFer next offseason or trade for one and RF will be vacant once Swishers contract is up. Less ground to cover and the irony of him playing where he’s gotten most of his hits and HRs makes it even better.

  25. AL Duque January 25th, 2010 at 10:14 am

    What do you thing about following contract offer for Jeter!

    7 year deal (worth 95 Million and 2 Million buyout) with a team option for 3 more years:

    2011 20 Million
    2012 18 Million
    2013 15 Million
    2014 13 Million
    2015 11 Million
    2016 10 Million
    2017 8 Million

    Optionyears 3 Years for 18 Million with a 2 Million buy out!

  26. Swanny January 25th, 2010 at 10:15 am

    One important consideration that you didn’t mention is that Jeter’s love of the game comes from being on a team. He has said over and over again that he is not motivated by stats. Doesn’t breaking Pete Rose’s reord require a player to be selfish?

  27. CD January 25th, 2010 at 10:16 am

    I’m wondering the same thing– how impossibly difficult is going to be to say goodbye to him one day?
    ========================================

    can you imagine the final inning of his final game. The ovation will be overwhelming.

  28. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:17 am

    “I wouldn’t bet against Rose ;)”

    LOL… betting is probably what kept his busy during the off-seasons.

    And even he he didn’t work out during the off-season, the science and technology of off-season programs didn’t exist then as it does now. I think it’s fair to guesstimate that for someone really serious and dedicated, 40 is the new 35 for a professional baseball player.

  29. Stan January 25th, 2010 at 10:19 am

    The Captain will get hit No. 3,000 as a shortstop. After that he makes a decision about another position and for how many years. His legacy is firmly in place right now.

  30. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:20 am

    “Doesn’t breaking Pete Rose’s reord require a player to be selfish?”

    Doesn’t have to.

  31. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:20 am

    “What do you thing about following contract offer for Jeter!”

    Here is the problem. IF Jeter stays in the game that long, the closer he gets to 4000 (and beyond) the higher his value to the team will become.

    He’s probably going to ask for (and get) some version of the deal A-Rod has in regards to the HR record.

  32. AL Duque January 25th, 2010 at 10:22 am

    I think a 100 Million for 7 years will do it

  33. Bronx Jeers January 25th, 2010 at 10:23 am

    Derek walks away before 4,000.

    The Yanks have DH and 1st base filled for the next 7 years.

  34. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:25 am

    “40 is the new 35 for a professional baseball player.”

    Couldn’t disagree more. If anything, the game today is a young player’s game. Really has been since testing started.

  35. Erica - always OPPC - Bring Back Johnny!!!! January 25th, 2010 at 10:28 am

    Erin-

    “I Don’t Want to Live on the Moon” just came on my iPod!

  36. Patrick from CT January 25th, 2010 at 10:28 am

    Jeter is going to get a 4 year 20mil per year deal from 2011-2014 and then be done. Where he plays in the field the last 2 years of his contract remains to be seen.
    He’ll collect another 7-800 hits and 2 more rings before he retires.
    No way he hanges on as long as Rose…

  37. Erica - always OPPC - Bring Back Johnny!!!! January 25th, 2010 at 10:29 am

    CD
    January 25th, 2010 at 10:06 am
    what’s Derek gonna do without baseball?

    he spends 8 months of the year n uniform. the lack of competition is gonna kill him. XBox is no substitute.

    *************

    Derek has said he wants to be an owner.

  38. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:29 am

    “He’s probably going to ask for (and get) some version of the deal A-Rod has in regards to the HR record.”

    Agreed. Especially in light of Arod potentially breaking the homerun record losing considerable cache after the revelations of last February.

    Jeter gets the hits record and nobody questions it’s validity.

  39. Jim January 25th, 2010 at 10:30 am

    I agree with the sentiments above that Jeter has always been more team minded than driven by individual stats. For him to have a chance at the hits record, he would have to stop trying to put down those rediculous sacrifice bunts…

  40. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 10:30 am

    Erica – always OPPC – Bring Back Johnny!!!!
    January 25th, 2010 at 10:28 am
    Erin-

    “I Don’t Want to Live on the Moon” just came on my iPod!

    ***********************
    Awesome!! I have that one on mine too! :D

  41. murphydog January 25th, 2010 at 10:31 am

    “I think Jeter has far too much pride to close out his career in the manner Rose did.”

    Agree 100%.

    As for owning a team I have read that he wants to partner with Posada. Can’t imagine a better combo to gain MLB approval for buying a franchise. Maybe he’ll put together a group to buy one of the Florida teams (The Marlins will have a new park in Miami Dade) or maybe let him buy and move the Rays to Puerto Rico to really open up the Caribbean to MLB. Not sure there is a future for the Rays in Tampa/St. Pete without a pricey new park that the public so far doesn’t want to pay for. Ownership opportunities don’t come along all that often.

    As for how many more years to 4000, doesn’t he want to get married and have a family? I don’t see him being an absentee husband or father. Could be family/team ownership versus 4000.

    His head is in the right place, he’ll make the right choice.

  42. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:34 am

    “Couldn’t disagree more. If anything, the game today is a young player’s game. Really has been since testing started.”

    I don’t mean from a “commonplace” perspective. But for the rare, motivated, elite player, the science and technology exists (nutrition, legal supplements, conditioning) to prolong performance. And Jeter happens to be a perfect specimen for this – as he’s extremely athletic, and doesn’t rely on bulk for performance.

    So long as he stays lean, can’t see any reason why his legs won’t let him perform in a corner outfield spot and don’t see ins inside-out swing abandoning him.

    He’s ALREADY playing SS at a much more advanced age as normal and arguably was better than he ever was there last year. Anyone expecting a sudden age-crash might be waiting longer than expected.

  43. DaSaint007 January 25th, 2010 at 10:35 am

    I don’t think Jeter has any interest in breaking Rose’s record. He’s THE premier Yankee of this generation and will enter the HOF as a first-ballot inductee. He’s not going to delay that entry any longer than necessary, as he has nothing left to prove.

  44. Broken news January 25th, 2010 at 10:36 am

    Anybody seen Tonya Harding lately ?

    http://www.bostonherald.com/ne.....038;cnum=2

  45. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:38 am

    Someone should do the math and calculate the probabilities of WHEN A-Rod is most likely to approaching the record and Jeter 4000 hits (both assuming relative health and production of course).

    How crazy would it be to potentially happen the same season?

  46. DaSaint007 January 25th, 2010 at 10:38 am

    One more thing. I’m not sure that the Core Four will retire piecemeal either. I think they’ll leave together.

  47. upstate kate January 25th, 2010 at 10:40 am

    I don’t see Jeter hanging on to break the hits record, neither do I see Mo hanging on to break the saves record. I think they will both be gone when they can no longer play at the level they expect from themselves…which will be a very sad day for Yankee fans, and baseball fans in general.

  48. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:40 am

    “Anyone expecting a sudden age-crash might be waiting longer than expected.”

    When it happens, it probably will be sudden, but I think he’s a little ways from it. I’d guess his next contract will be 4 years in length. I be surprised if there wasn’t noticeable deterioration in his game before it’s expires.

  49. Wave Your Hat January 25th, 2010 at 10:40 am

    If Jeter does break Pete’s record, I hope he does it for another team. Last thing we need is to have a regular giving us 5 years of sub-100 OPS while he tries to set a personal record.

  50. upstate kate January 25th, 2010 at 10:41 am

    I think you will see Posada and Pettitte retire before Jeter and Mo

  51. HenryfromDC January 25th, 2010 at 10:42 am

    I think Jeter is going for immortality. He knows there are still so many Jeter haters out there outside of NY. If he breaks Rose’s record, those haters will be eating crow for the rest of their lives. Plus, ever since Jeter was a kid, his dream has been to play SS for the Yankees. He’s enjoying the game as much now as when he was a rookie. I don’t see him stopping unless injury robs him completely.

    Just imagine Jeter getting 4257 and Arod getting his 1000 hr in the same game. Wow… And the way Rivera is going, save #1000 in that game!

  52. Fred Vincy January 25th, 2010 at 10:42 am

    Bill James’ “favorite toy” (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames) projects Jeter to finish with 3,440 hits and gives him a 0% chance of breaking Rose’s record. (It gives A-Rod better than even money on breaking Bonds’ HR record, in contrast.)

  53. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 10:42 am

    “One more thing. I’m not sure that the Core Four will retire piecemeal either. I think they’ll leave together.”

    I think Mo ad Jeter are around beyond Posada’s and Pettitte’s stay. Hard to envision Posada getting signed beyond the expiration of his existing contract, which occurs at the end of the 2011 season.

  54. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 10:43 am

    DaSaint007
    January 25th, 2010 at 10:38 am
    One more thing. I’m not sure that the Core Four will retire piecemeal either. I think they’ll leave together.

    *********************
    While there would be some appeal in watching the four of them walk into the sunset together, I don’t think it will happen. I think Pettitte and most likely Posada will be gone before Jeter and Rivera. JMO

  55. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:43 am

    I think people trying to get into Jeter’s head and decide for him what his priorities are (or should be) are doing so at their own peril.

    To become the ALL-TIME hit leader in the history of the game (at a time when the current record-holder is tainted). That’s NOT a small thing. That’s a ENORMOUS thing. Heck, just getting to 4000 is an enormous thing.

    I wouldn’t assume he has not interest in such a thing or begrudge him if he does, PARTICULARLY considering as a Yankee, he’ll make a run for another ring pretty much every season he plays.

  56. Carl January 25th, 2010 at 10:46 am

    stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:38 am

    Someone should do the math and calculate the probabilities of WHEN A-Rod is most likely to approaching the record and Jeter 4000 hits (both assuming relative health and production of course).

    How crazy would it be to potentially happen the same season?

    On the same day.

  57. Captain Schmaptain January 25th, 2010 at 10:47 am

    I love the guy, but if he were a true Yankee he’d walk into Cashman’s office and say “listen Cash, the Yankees have treated me and paid me better than I ever deserved to. Lets do a 4 year contract paying me $10 million a year, which is still WAY too generous for a 37 year old shortstop”. The only stipulation is you use the extra 10 million to sign a good outfielder so you won’t embarass the yankees again by crying poverty over a few million dollars to get a real outfielder in here and not have the Lohudders speculate on Randy Freakin Winn and Marcus Fracken Thames”

  58. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:49 am

    “Bill James’ “favorite toy” (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames) projects Jeter to finish with 3,440 hits and gives him a 0% chance of breaking Rose’s record. (It gives A-Rod better than even money on breaking Bonds’ HR record, in contrast.)”

    Assuming health, that’s less than 4 years away.

    Were I a betting man, I wouldn’t make that bet.

  59. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 10:49 am

    Carl
    January 25th, 2010 at 10:46 am
    stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:38 am

    Someone should do the math and calculate the probabilities of WHEN A-Rod is most likely to approaching the record and Jeter 4000 hits (both assuming relative health and production of course).

    How crazy would it be to potentially happen the same season?

    On the same day.

    ***************************
    That would be one awesome day ;)

  60. Joe Vogel January 25th, 2010 at 10:50 am

    I’m not even going to pretend that I can know another man’s true motivations and know what Jeter is thinking in terms of when to hang up his spikes (Heck, I thought Rickey Henderson would retire at 34 y/o). He clearly has the best shot at 4,000 hits and Rose in years. However, the next 5 years is where Rose separated himself from everybody else. While most players are in decline from 35-40, Rose pounded out 1,150 hits over those 6 years. As much as I would like to see Jeter approach Rose, I must agree with Wave Your Hat in that the final few seasons of Jeter pursuing the record will be a shell of his former player (something like a .270 hitter without power playing LF–Not 2B, diminishing range is going to bump him from SS, 2B is not a logical transition position).

  61. Joe Vogel January 25th, 2010 at 10:57 am

    Just a guess on retirements:

    Pettitte–after 2010
    Posada–after 2011
    Rivera–after 2011
    Jeter–after 2014
    Rodriguez–limping after 2017 (the worst contract in baseball history)

    Nothing scientific about these prognostications, about as reliable as a FoxNews Poll.

  62. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 10:57 am

    Here is the thing about all-time record holder. They are by nature and definition outliers. People who are in position to approach all-time records have already done extraorinary things.

    I’m not suggesting that Jeter will be knocking out 200 hits at SS at 42, but I DO expect to continue to defy the laws of average and ordinary, because that’s what the all-times greats do.

  63. Doreen - Ain't it Just "Grand"? January 25th, 2010 at 11:06 am

    The Yankees are not crying poverty. They set a budget. they do not want to go over budget (and frankly THEY are the only ones who know precisely what the budget and how fluid it can be).

  64. Paco Dooley January 25th, 2010 at 11:08 am

    One flaw I see that is a major difference is that, if I read the numbers correctly, Rose was younger at this point in his career, so he was younger when he was putting up those late career numbers.

    But what this does illustrate is that Jeter is all of the hitter that Rose was, but in a better package in terms of defense, baserunning and attitude (not to mention personality). But then again, a lot of guys were as good or better than Rose in terms of pure hitting ability, but he had the critical longevity (like Boggs and Gwinn – both probably better pure hitters than Rose – plus there is Ichiro, who would probably be a much bigger threat to Rose’s record if he had played in the US his whole career).

  65. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 11:10 am

    On a more personal note, I think it’s somewhat a shame when some people see Jeter and Rivera (especially) all they can see and anticipate is decline.

    I saw it last off-season when there was so much talk about how to get him off SS and I saw it all last season (and especially in April) about Rivera.

    For some fans, neither player will ever be allowed a sub-par week, particularly Rivera. His velocity and ERA is going to be monitored on a per-game basis by those just waiting for a crash.

    And that’s a real shame.

  66. DaSaint007 January 25th, 2010 at 11:10 am

    Jeter could easily play 4 more years at least.

    Jorge Posada has been remarkably consistent offensively in his 15 seasons, and frankly, could easily continue to produce a .280 AVG with 20HR and 80 RBI for the next 4 years as a DH.

    Andy Pettitte needs 45 wins to surpass Whitey Ford as the winningest Yankee pitcher. That could take 3 to 4 seasons, and frankly if he were to keep winning 14-15 games/season, there’s no reason not to keep resigning him to 1 year contracts.

    Mo has 526 saves, averaging 39 per season. No reason that he couldn’t maintain that average for another 4 years.

    They could all ride off into the sunset as a group in 4 years, but yes, Jeter could stick around longer.

  67. DaSaint007 January 25th, 2010 at 11:11 am

    Edit: winningest Yankee left-handed pitcher.

  68. tex's friend January 25th, 2010 at 11:15 am

    Pettitte won’t last 4 years, i dont even think he wants to.

    Rivera and Jeter will.

    POsada probably could, but whether the Yankees hold onto him past that depends on his contract demands. I can see Posada/Montero sharing C/DH responsibilities and POsada can sub at 1st occassionally when needed too.

  69. upstate kate January 25th, 2010 at 11:16 am

    If anything it seemed like all of the core 4 had a better year last season, I don’t see any decline :)

  70. David in Cal January 25th, 2010 at 11:21 am

    I think Jeter will have to move to another team, if he wants to reach 4000 hits. Within the next 2 – 4 years, Jeter will probably slow down too much to play infield, His hitting will decline some. A .350 OBP player with limited power would be good enough to play regularly in RF or LF for or some teams, but not for a top contender.

  71. Don Capone January 25th, 2010 at 11:22 am

    I don’t think Jeter will reach Rose’s record because I don’t think he’ll hang around long enough. He doesn’t strike me as the type of player who would stick around just for a record if he isn’t at his best anymore.

  72. Joe Vogel January 25th, 2010 at 11:24 am

    stuckey
    January 25th, 2010 at 11:10 am
    On a more personal note, I think it’s somewhat a shame when some people see Jeter and Rivera (especially) all they can see and anticipate is decline.

    I saw it last off-season when there was so much talk about how to get him off SS and I saw it all last season (and especially in April) about Rivera.

    For some fans, neither player will ever be allowed a sub-par week, particularly Rivera. His velocity and ERA is going to be monitored on a per-game basis by those just waiting for a crash.

    And that’s a real shame.
    ————————————
    Stuckey:

    I’m not trying to be a cynic about their futures, but the fact is the Yankees have one of baseball’s older lineups, especially in their key core group of players. Cashman must be anticipating the dropoff in their careers and be looking for successors to these players or this team could slide into mediocrity for a few seasons. One the chief reasons that the Braves were so successful for so long in the 90′s was their ability to turn over from aging players into cheaper options internally. No doubt, Cashman will have some very tough decisions to make in the next couple of years (if he doesn’t retire himself). Hopefully both the players and the GM will realize the appropriate time for changes (whether it be a position move, retirement, etc.), but you never know. I’m sure everyone here remembers how it ended for Bernie Williams, a great player whose skills eroded quickly, a fact that the player and management did not see eye to eye on.

  73. DaSaint007 January 25th, 2010 at 11:25 am

    Pettitte’s last 3 seasons:

    2007 215IP 15-9 4.05 ERA, 141 SO, 69 BB
    2008 204IP 14-14 4.54 ERA, 158 SO, 55 BB
    2009 194IP 14-8 4.16 ERA, 148 SO, 76 BB

    I’m ok with my 4th or 5th starter consistently winning 14 or 15 games with a 4ish ERA.

  74. pat January 25th, 2010 at 11:28 am

    If you believe Jeter, he has always said it’s not about stats.

    If he doesn’t care about chasing a stat, why should anyone else care about him chasing a stat.

  75. Joe Vogel January 25th, 2010 at 11:29 am

    DaSaint007
    January 25th, 2010 at 11:25 am
    Pettitte’s last 3 seasons:

    2007 215IP 15-9 4.05 ERA, 141 SO, 69 BB
    2008 204IP 14-14 4.54 ERA, 158 SO, 55 BB
    2009 194IP 14-8 4.16 ERA, 148 SO, 76 BB

    I’m ok with my 4th or 5th starter consistently winning 14 or 15 games with a 4ish ERA.
    ————————————
    I think Pettitte could continue at this pace for several more years considering that he’s not doing this relying upon velocity. However, considering his past comments, near retiremnents (wasn’t it the opening of the New Yankee Stadium that brought him back this year?), etc., he doesn’t strike me as a player who is going to hang around forever. I hope I’m wrong and he plays 3-4 more years.

  76. Evan January 25th, 2010 at 11:31 am

    I’d like to see a statistical analysis on when Jeter gets hitched.

  77. NYY626 January 25th, 2010 at 11:33 am

    I have an insane attachment to our 4 main guys. I’m going to be a mess when they retire. I was not a happy camper in 03 when Andy left. I also cried when we got rid of Tino for Giambi. I don’t like change, even though its inevitable. :sigh: Why can’t our favorites just play forever?

    How do you deal when one hero retires and its time to embrace a new one? ( I ask this because I was 9/10 when Mattingly retired and while I remember him, Jeter was my first real baseball hero)

  78. Wave Your Hat January 25th, 2010 at 11:37 am

    “How do you deal when one hero retires and its time to embrace a new one? ( I ask this because I was 9/10 when Mattingly retired and while I remember him, Jeter was my first real baseball hero)”

    Well it helped a lot when we won the WS in 1996.

  79. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 11:38 am

    NYY626
    January 25th, 2010 at 11:33 am
    I have an insane attachment to our 4 main guys. I’m going to be a mess when they retire. I was not a happy camper in 03 when Andy left. I also cried when we got rid of Tino for Giambi. I don’t like change, even though its inevitable. :sigh: Why can’t our favorites just play forever?

    How do you deal when one hero retires and its time to embrace a new one? ( I ask this because I was 9/10 when Mattingly retired and while I remember him, Jeter was my first real baseball hero)

    **************************
    My thoughts exactly. I’m getting depressed with all of this retirement talk!

  80. Joe Vogel January 25th, 2010 at 11:41 am

    NYY626
    January 25th, 2010 at 11:33 am
    I have an insane attachment to our 4 main guys. I’m going to be a mess when they retire. I was not a happy camper in 03 when Andy left. I also cried when we got rid of Tino for Giambi. I don’t like change, even though its inevitable. :sigh: Why can’t our favorites just play forever?

    How do you deal when one hero retires and its time to embrace a new one? ( I ask this because I was 9/10 when Mattingly retired and while I remember him, Jeter was my first real baseball hero)
    ———————
    It bums me out too (almost as much as breaking up Mattingly, Winfield, Randolph, Henderson), but simultaneously this should be an exciting time for any Yankee fan. The team is currently a 100 win team as constituted (regardless of what happens in LF), it has a number of exciting young players with high upsides transitioning into key roles (Hughes, Chamberlain, Montero), plus a number of potentially solid supporting players emerging (Gardner, Romine, McAllister, Melancon, Whelan). Further, the lower reaches of the farm system have a number of promising arms (Banuelos, Bleich, Heathcott). In sum, this is a team that can transition while it wins and get more affordable in the process.

  81. melky gardner January 25th, 2010 at 11:51 am

    He’d be much further ahead if he stopped the incessant bunting.

    But yeah, why not? There’s a lot of if’s there but hey – it’s Derek Jeter.

  82. NYY626 January 25th, 2010 at 11:54 am

    Wave Your Hat
    January 25th, 2010 at 11:37 am
    “How do you deal when one hero retires and its time to embrace a new one? ( I ask this because I was 9/10 when Mattingly retired and while I remember him, Jeter was my first real baseball hero)”

    Well it helped a lot when we won the WS in 1996.
    ___________________________________________________________
    True. It will be a completely different situation this time I guess.

  83. tex's friend January 25th, 2010 at 12:03 pm

    just read something about vazquez after next year and what we can get from him. if he has a good year, as we hope he will, and we are depending on getting two draft picks for him, we have to consider what happens if we offer arbitration and he accepts. after a good year, he would be making well over 11.5 mil and we would not have a prospect to show for it.

    he has said he is good year to year, so there has to be a chance he accepts if arb is offered to him.

    no?

  84. Joe Vogel January 25th, 2010 at 12:15 pm

    tex’s friend
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
    just read something about vazquez after next year and what we can get from him. if he has a good year, as we hope he will, and we are depending on getting two draft picks for him, we have to consider what happens if we offer arbitration and he accepts. after a good year, he would be making well over 11.5 mil and we would not have a prospect to show for it.

    he has said he is good year to year, so there has to be a chance he accepts if arb is offered to him.

    no?
    ——————————————
    Conversely, there’s is probably more risk if he has a poor year where his market value may drop but he would still likely be a Type A based upon his 3 year averages. Then, if arbitrationm was offered he may very well accept due to the low market value and that he couldn’t take more than a 20% cut in arbitration (roughly $9 million plus based on his 2010 $11.5 million salary).

  85. Patrick January 25th, 2010 at 12:17 pm

    Good post, Lucas.

    It’s fun to speculate about where Jeter will end up when his career is over. I personally don’t think he’ll get to Rose’s record simply because I doubt Jetes will play for another 10 years.

    It’s certainly possible though, Jeter is aging well and he’s one of the most durable players in the sport. If anyone has the mental toughness to break the record, Jeter does.

  86. S.o.S.-GO COLTS!! January 25th, 2010 at 12:18 pm

    What is up fellas.
    3 things.

    I enjoyed yesterday to the fullest. My Colts came back on a very tough Jets team. Have to give them props for making it this far with a Rookie qb. Hope they can pull it off this year. Still wondering if it was worth tanking it in the end of the season.

    Second, glad favre got ousted. I still cant believe he went to the Vikings just to get back at the Packers. Its like Jeter heading to Boston for his final year. Was it worth it to ruin your immage?

    Saw the first Twilight this weekend. What do people see in this movie? The guy was a freakin stalker. She was on something. How does a girl stay in a relationship when the guy keeps saying im gonna eat you. Her response, i trust you. Its like dating hannibal lechter. Must be a teenage thing.

  87. S.o.S.-GO COLTS!! January 25th, 2010 at 12:21 pm

    He doesn’t strike me as the type of player who would stick around just for a record if he isn’t at his best anymore.

    ======

    I second that. He wont stick around knowing hes in the way or not competing at a high level.

  88. Bronx Jeers January 25th, 2010 at 12:26 pm

    Way way way off topic here…

    But why is it that bidets never really caught on here in the US?

    It makes no sense to me.

  89. Erica - always OPPC - Bring Back Johnny!!!! January 25th, 2010 at 12:27 pm

    No one has given any updated on MPB Johnny Damon’s breathing in a while……..

  90. pat January 25th, 2010 at 12:27 pm

    Olney saying Oakland could be a potential home for Johnny. They are looking for a veteran OFer but are interested in Sheets and that needs to play out first.

  91. Erica - always OPPC - Bring Back Johnny!!!! January 25th, 2010 at 12:28 pm

    pat
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
    Olney saying Oakland could be a potential home for Johnny. They are looking for a veteran OFer but are interested in Sheets and that needs to play out first.

    *************

    Wow, you are so clearly in my head right now. Isn’t it a frightening place?

  92. stuckey January 25th, 2010 at 12:32 pm

    ‘I’m not trying to be a cynic about their futures, but the fact is the Yankees have one of baseball’s older lineups, especially in their key core group of players. Cashman must be anticipating the dropoff in their careers and be looking for successors to these players or this team could slide into mediocrity for a few seasons.’

    Joe, the thing fans need to keep in mind is we’re not just talking about a group of aging players. We’re talking about a group of ALL-TIME aging players.

    - THE best reliever of all time.

    - Arguably when it’s all said and done, one of the Top 2 shortstops of all time.

    - Arguably one of of the top 10-15 offensive catchers of all time.

    - Arguably one of the Top 5 greatest players period of all time.

    These guys are ALL extreme outliers and their decline may not follow the same path as the average player.

    IN addition, even if they experience noticeable decline, they’ll STILL likely to be above to very above average.

    Rivera’s career to this point has been unprecedented. Will he be the Rivera that posts a sub-1.50 ERA and blow 1 or 2 saves a year in 3 years? Maybe not, but he can still be not as good as he’s been but much better than the options available in that time.

    I understand the romantic notion of wanting to see guys walk away at the height or near height of their ability, but even 75% of Alex Rodriguez is going to give you production that only a star-superstar in this prime will be able to top.

    And as for Rivera, he’s on the post-season program for me. Unless he’s demonstratively terrible in the regular season, his production to me will be measured in October. When his whip starts noticeably increasing in the playoffs, I’ll start worrying.

  93. GreenBeret7 January 25th, 2010 at 12:33 pm

    Erica – always OPPC – Bring Back Johnny!!!!
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
    pat
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
    Olney saying Oakland could be a potential home for Johnny. They are looking for a veteran OFer but are interested in Sheets and that needs to play out first.

    *************

    Wow, you are so clearly in my head right now. Isn’t it a frightening place?

    ————————————————————

    Cobwebs and spiders don’t scare me none.

  94. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 12:38 pm

    S.o.S.-GO COLTS!!
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:18 pm

    Saw the first Twilight this weekend. What do people see in this movie? The guy was a freakin stalker. She was on something. How does a girl stay in a relationship when the guy keeps saying im gonna eat you. Her response, i trust you. Its like dating hannibal lechter. Must be a teenage thing.

    *************************
    I take it you saw this movie kicking and screaming?? LOL Wish I had an answer for you-the only vampire I’ve ever loved is The Count from Sesame Street. :)

  95. ditmars1929 January 25th, 2010 at 12:42 pm

    Just curious – if he plays productively for another two seasons, then retires, and you have a HOF vote, to you vote for Posada?

  96. S.o.S.-""We just kept our mouth shut this and went to work this week" January 25th, 2010 at 12:43 pm

    Erin,
    I have to say. I wasnt forced to watch it. Im really into watching movies that do good in the box office. The top 150 ever(I believe iv watched probably 130 of those). Had no idea what to expect. In the end, i told my wife that i should have skipped the movie and stuck tooth picks in my eyes.
    Whats up with the glittery thing in the sun? I thought vampires burn in it?

  97. blake January 25th, 2010 at 12:46 pm

    Stuckey,

    I have agreed with everything you have said so far today…what’s this world coming to?

  98. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 12:46 pm

    AOLFanhouse Top 100 Prospects released today:

    Montero = #5
    Banuelos = #41
    Romine = #45
    McAllister = #76

  99. ortforshort January 25th, 2010 at 12:48 pm

    It’s nice to think of Jeter still playing for the Yankees at a high level at the age of forty three. He’s a great athelete, keeps himself in great shape and is a great player. If anyone has a chance at being highly productive at that age, it would be him. Also, he obviously has a real love for the game. No matter how much money he has, I don’t think he’ll walk away from the game easily – as long as he’s playing at a high level and the Yankees are competitive. The Yankees will probably still be competitive. They’ve got plenty of money to buy their way out of whatever mistakes Cashman makes between now and then (like Jason in Friday the 13th, I figure Cashman will always be coming back every year). Therefore, the chances of Jeter breaking the hits record are probably better than you might think at first blush.

  100. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 12:48 pm

    S.o.S.-””We just kept our mouth shut this and went to work this week”
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:43 pm

    Whats up with the glittery thing in the sun? I thought vampires burn in it?

    *************************
    I’ve actually never seen the Twilight movies, so I have no idea. My cousin’s 9 year old daughter is very into them, however. And the poor girl doesn’t even know who The Count is!!

  101. Erica - always OPPC - Bring Back Johnny!!!! January 25th, 2010 at 12:49 pm

    GreenBeret7
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:33 pm

    Wow, you are so clearly in my head right now. Isn’t it a frightening place?

    ————————————————————

    Cobwebs and spiders don’t scare me none.

    ***************

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO :evil:

    Unfortunately these days, its more like smoke and fury

  102. Erica - always OPPC - Bring Back Johnny!!!! January 25th, 2010 at 12:49 pm

    Erin
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:38 pm

    I take it you saw this movie kicking and screaming?? LOL Wish I had an answer for you-the only vampire I’ve ever loved is The Count from Sesame Street.

    ************

    The Count von Count is everyone’s favorite vampire!

  103. Doreen - Ain't it Just "Grand"? January 25th, 2010 at 12:51 pm

    S.O.S. -

    Oh, no. That’s a myth created so humans think they have a shot at destroying vampires. No, vampires glow in the sun.

    I read all four books. My daughter was really into the series.

    The author puts a whole new spin on vampires and werewolves or shapeshifters, or whatever she decided she would call Jacob’s people.

    They were the type of book that was almost so bad they were good, you know? If you apply common sense, it spoils the whole thing. And I think it’s definitly a teenage vampire/romance thingie. I’ll die for your/I’ll kill you so you can die for me/we can live happily throughout eternity being the physically perfect ageless gorgeous creatures that we are at this minute. Totally captures the self-absorption of (some) teenage girls (Bella – who I think has got to be one of the world’s worst, or at least the world’s least sympathetic heroine ever created by an author. I mean, even Anna Karenina wasn’t this self-indulgent.)

  104. GreenBeret7 January 25th, 2010 at 12:52 pm

    Erin
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
    S.o.S.-GO COLTS!!
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:18 pm

    Saw the first Twilight this weekend. What do people see in this movie? The guy was a freakin stalker. She was on something. How does a girl stay in a relationship when the guy keeps saying im gonna eat you. Her response, i trust you. Its like dating hannibal lechter. Must be a teenage thing.

    *************************
    I take it you saw this movie kicking and screaming?? LOL Wish I had an answer for you-the only vampire I’ve ever loved is The Count from Sesame Street.

    ————————————————————

    Now, Count Count scares me. Looks just like Howard Cosell coming back to life.

  105. Doreen - Ain't it Just "Grand"? January 25th, 2010 at 12:54 pm

    Oh, S.O.S. – she made these particular vampires, this one family, “vegetarians.” :)

  106. GreenBeret7 January 25th, 2010 at 12:54 pm

    Erica – always OPPC – Bring Back Johnny!!!!
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
    GreenBeret7
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:33 pm

    Wow, you are so clearly in my head right now. Isn’t it a frightening place?

    ————————————————————

    Cobwebs and spiders don’t scare me none.

    ***************

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

    Unfortunately these days, its more like smoke and fury

    ————————————————————

    With Johnny Damon running loose in his stocking feet up there, I didn’t think that there’d be room for much more.

  107. S.o.S.-""We just kept our mouth shut this and went to work this week" January 25th, 2010 at 12:56 pm

    Doreen,
    Im not sure what was a worse relationship.

    Bella and Edward(i believe that was his name)
    Romeo and Juliet
    Jack and Rose from Titanic(never understood how he gave up his door to someone he just met.)

  108. S.o.S.-""We just kept our mouth shut this and went to work this week" January 25th, 2010 at 12:58 pm

    Oh, S.O.S. – she made these particular vampires, this one family, “vegetarians.”

    =======

    If i was her, i would have sprayed on some DRACCAR to keep them vegetarians. What was up with him wanting her to yell out vampire? Is it the vampires version of whos your daddy?

  109. Erin January 25th, 2010 at 12:58 pm

    GreenBeret7
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:52 pm

    Now, Count Count scares me. Looks just like Howard Cosell coming back to life.

    **********************
    LOL-now that’s a scary thought!
    The Count is much more loveable that Cosell ;)

  110. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 12:58 pm

    “Jack and Rose from Titanic(never understood how he gave up his door to someone he just met.)”

    It was a WWJD moment.

  111. Chad Jennings January 25th, 2010 at 12:59 pm

    Just added a new post with my take on Jeter and the hits record.

  112. S.o.S.-""We just kept our mouth shut and went to work this week" January 25th, 2010 at 1:00 pm

    WWJD?

  113. GreenBeret7 January 25th, 2010 at 1:02 pm

    ditmars1929
    January 25th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
    Just curious – if he plays productively for another two seasons, then retires, and you have a HOF vote, to you vote for Posada?

    ————————————————————

    He’d need to get closer to Gary Carter numbers to get in. Right now he’s not even close to Ted Simmons’ numbers except in homers.

  114. Doreen - Ain't it Just "Grand"? January 25th, 2010 at 1:03 pm

    Yeah, I never really got Romeo & Juliet either. I can’t suspend disbelief long enough to get over the total stupidity of the situation. :)

    As far as Titanic went, I was more touched by the shots of the poor people in steerage than the “love” story. And speaking of “Love Story,” that was another stupid romance – Ollie & what’s-her-face “Love means never having to say you’re sorry.” What??? Love means ALWAYS having to say you’re sorry!!! And I never got the attraction to Allie McGraw who played what’s-her-face in the move. (Oh, Jennifer, that was it.) Far as I could tell it was really cool at the time to have people die from leukemia (Brian’s Song).

  115. Frank January 25th, 2010 at 1:04 pm

    “WWJD?”

    What would Jeter do?

  116. GreenBeret7 January 25th, 2010 at 1:13 pm

    Macgraw was one of the first modeling superstars to make it to the films. Then, there was the Steve McQueen connection. Hard to believe that much time has passed that she has the nerve to be 72 years old.

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