The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Some things keep getting better

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 30, 2010 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Earlier this week, the Baseball Prospectus projection system, PECOTA, predicted a third-place finish for the Yankees. In an updated version of the projection, the Yankees are now predicted to finish 93-69, tied with the Red Sox for the best record in baseball.

The latest projection has the Yankees scoring fewer runs — down to 855, still the most in baseball — but also predicts a much better season from the pitching staff, with the expected runs allowed down to 733, which is 56 fewer than in the first PECOTA prediction.

Why the change? I don’t know the entire process, but these folks are trying to predict an entire baseball season, and that probably requires some tweaks along the way. They’ve been pretty good at it in the past. The numbers might not be exactly right, but PECOTA usually gives a pretty good glimpse of the big picture. The real gutsy prediction here is the American League West. Talk about going against conventional thinking!

———

Also wanted to pass along this picture of CC Sabathia, his wife Amber and his mother Margie Sabathia Lanier at a ribbon-cutting ceremony for Thurmon Field, which Sabathia recently helped renovate. Here’s the story – in press release form — and the picture.

It was only less than one year ago when New York Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia returned to see the first field he ever played on at North Vallejo Little League. What he discovered was covered with weeds and totally unsuitable for children to play baseball. As a man who believes in the importance of giving youth as many opportunities as possible, Sabathia and his PitCCh In Foundation™, vowed to make a change. The reconstructed Thurmon Field will open with a field ceremony on Saturday, January 30, 2010 at 9 a.m., followed by the North Vallejo Little League All Star baseball clinic at 10 a.m.

The result of an intense two-month schedule of construction, coordinated by the Good Tidings Foundation and project general contractor Robert A. Bothman, Inc., this revitalized field will include new irrigation including lateral lines, new heads, valves and controller; new infield dirt, new bases, pitching rubber and home plate; new dugouts; new electronic scoreboard; a black vinyl coated chain link fence donated by the California Fence Contractors Association, and 37,000 square feet of sod provided by West Coast Turf. It will be the exact same turf as the Oakland Alameda County Coliseum where the Oakland A’s play. In addition, the field will be adjoined by a rebuilt snack bar with new electrical and the addition of a new water line, floor and roof.

“We had a lot of help from some very dedicated people who are equally passionate as me about making sure kids get to play this great game of baseball,” explained Sabathia. “Thinking back to what was here in terms of weeds and old dugouts to what we have now, I’m as excited as the kids on the first day of the season.”

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74 Responses to “Some things keep getting better”

  1. MaineYankee January 30th, 2010 at 9:41 pm

    Chad

    I guess you thought we needed to bring the talk back to baseball. :lol:

  2. Erica - always OPPC - Is Done with Brian Cashman!!!! January 30th, 2010 at 9:47 pm

    Pat M.
    January 30th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
    Erica, Ah Ms. Stevie Nicks…..Bella Donna…..I know I’ve mentioned this before, but I was on two occasions within five feet of her….Once in a Sedona bar, and the other time was after a USC – Notre Dame game as we were on line waiting for our car services to pick us up….I looked to my right and there she was….Her eyes pierced right thru me….The Sedonna incident was before a concert she was oerforming in September 2000….I tried to buy her a drink, but she declined…..She returned the favor and bought me a Gin & Tonic…..

    **************

    Pat-

    That’s an awesome story. I guess after all her rehabbing she doesn’t drink anymore.

    Did I tell you I met her last March? She did an album signing in the city and I made up a story at work about “having to leave early for very important personal reasons”. (It was really important and personal!!!!!).

    I waited for 4 hours, but I finally got to speak to her and shake her hand. She has remarkably soft hands. I read later on she stayed very late into the night to make sure she met everyone who showed up

  3. Erica - always OPPC - Is Done with Brian Cashman!!!! January 30th, 2010 at 9:48 pm

    MaineYankee
    January 30th, 2010 at 9:41 pm
    Chad

    I guess you thought we needed to bring the talk back to baseball.

    **************

    Nah :-)

  4. Doreen January 30th, 2010 at 9:49 pm

    Oops. Yes, it’s a Yankees blog. :oops:

    CC’s such a good person. If you want kids to play a game, you’ve got to make it convenient for them and affordable, too.

    I don’t know how it is in other places, but kids in my neighborhood play very little out in the street like we did. It’s just different. For so many reasons. So it’s wonderful when someone like CC, who’s had such success in baseball, can really bring it back home and provide that opportunity and encouragement.

  5. trisha - OPPC forever - (new lucky picture from last day at the old Stadium) BRING ON THE GHOSTS! January 30th, 2010 at 9:49 pm

    Hey, he talked about PETCOA! Oh sorry, I’m thinking of PETCO.

    :D

  6. Kevin January 30th, 2010 at 10:04 pm

    CC is one of the great yankee signings in a while and glad he going to be here for a long time

  7. Phil the Thrill January 30th, 2010 at 10:10 pm

    One of the Yankee bloggers showed the BP guys the error in their original math. Still, there must be more cause the Yanks will win over 100 games and the Sox are not as good as they are.

  8. James (One of the many) January 30th, 2010 at 10:22 pm

    I’ll take vegas’ wins prediction over pecota

  9. pat January 30th, 2010 at 10:23 pm

    The games are played on the field and not paper and I don’t know much about these things but…..

    What does CAIRO use that PECOTA does or doesn’t because CAIRO has the Yankees winning 102 games and finishing in first by 9 games.

  10. Kevin January 30th, 2010 at 10:26 pm

    Agreed a major factor in every teams success is the injury factor and that is not being taken into account in projections like PECOTA

  11. Eric H January 30th, 2010 at 10:30 pm

    One thing I can’t help but notice is that they predict all but four teams winning between 73 and 86 games. For reference, last year 17 teams won less than 73 or more than 86 games.

    In other words, this system seems to have a bias towards safe, middle-of-the road projections.

  12. GeorgeInJax January 30th, 2010 at 10:33 pm

    This idiot on a yahoo blog is an embarrassment to Yankee fandom. Cancelling his ticket plann due to the Winn signing.

    http://yankees.lhblogs.com/201.....ng-better/

  13. GeorgeInJax January 30th, 2010 at 10:34 pm

    Sorry guys wrong link
    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/bl.....mlb,216527

  14. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day January 30th, 2010 at 10:37 pm

    I posted that earlier today – the guy’s an idiot, but he’s only hurting himself. When the Yankees are in first place midseason, he’ll rue the day that he let the tickets get away. He’s the worst kind of fan

  15. James (One of the many) January 30th, 2010 at 10:39 pm

    if you see the deadspin link of the yankee fan canceling his plan it’s pretty easy to see it’s fake. no sales person would have that response

  16. Pat M. January 30th, 2010 at 10:46 pm

    Erica, My affair with Stevie goes back to 1977 when I went to see Fleetwood Mac at the Forum during their Rumors Tour…I saw her again ( 4th row center ) a few years later when she was touring solo……Whe she sang Gyspy & then Sara I was in a trance…….She’s real tiny, maybe 5 foot ….I’ll be watching tomorrow night for the Lovely Ms. Stevie Nicks

  17. GeorgeInJax January 30th, 2010 at 10:55 pm

    I’d like to see Juan Miranda get a shot at being a bench Bat, but his problem is being a 1st baseman he’s not likely to get anytime behind Tex, NJ, or Swish.
    It would be pretty tough to give up a roster spot to a guy with no defensive position.

  18. gfd January 30th, 2010 at 11:20 pm

    That guy, et al on the Yahoo blog, are thinking that Winn replaced Damon, Curtis replaced Damon. He must be a fair weather fan.

    Damon should stop giving interviews, he sounds pathetic.

  19. Kevin January 30th, 2010 at 11:20 pm

    Miranda seems like perfect trade bait for a 5th starter/reliever/bench bat at the deadline if need be

  20. James (One of the many) January 30th, 2010 at 11:23 pm

    if you think that partial season ticket canceling is real and not a thought out troll, youve been suckered, to put it nicely.

  21. UpState January 30th, 2010 at 11:25 pm

    Thank you for bring back Baseball to the Baseball blog.
    This was becoming a very good promotion for RAB and some of the other Yankee blogs.
    Thanks, Mr. Jennings, for trying to get the trainwreck back on track !

  22. Erica - always OPPC - Is Done with Brian Cashman!!!! January 30th, 2010 at 11:53 pm

    Pat M.
    January 30th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
    Erica, My affair with Stevie goes back to 1977 when I went to see Fleetwood Mac at the Forum during their Rumors Tour…I saw her again ( 4th row center ) a few years later when she was touring solo……Whe she sang Gyspy & then Sara I was in a trance…….She’s real tiny, maybe 5 foot ….I’ll be watching tomorrow night for the Lovely Ms. Stevie Nicks

    ************

    You have an advantage. I wasn’t born yet :-)

    When I was 15-17, I worked as a phone girl in a local italian place. I was making $4.75 an hour. When Stevie toured in 1998 on the Enchanted tour, I took all of my saved money and bought 5th row center tickets. I wouldn’t tell my parents how much the tickets were. In retrospect, spending $250 on a concert ticket was rather gutsy, when you make so little money

    Last year, I saw Fleetwood Mac three times. The first show I went too, I had floor seats but the usher got confused and put me first row center. I didn’t correct him :-)

    I am hearing rumors of a Fleetwood Mac/Eagles tour this year which sounds amazing. Except I swear, I hear my wallet groaning when I think about it

  23. Pat M. January 31st, 2010 at 12:07 am

    Erica, Money well spent…Furthermore, thanks for the ” I wasn’t born yet” disclaimer…..That was meant to be funny…..Fleetwood Mac ( minus McVie ?? ) and the Eagles would be a great show…..1977, was also the Year of the Bronx Zoo & Reggie’s game 6….

  24. m January 31st, 2010 at 12:40 am

    So, my daughter’s at the Lost premiere right now. Let me know if you guys have any spoiler questions you want answered. ;)

  25. yanksince57 - NO damon please! January 31st, 2010 at 5:21 am

    is smokey the man in black?

  26. sevrox January 31st, 2010 at 5:40 am

    Kevin: ‘January 30th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
    CC is one of the great yankee signings in a while and glad he going to be here for a long time’

    He’ll be ‘here’ for at least this season and the next before he opts out for more money because the Yankees didn’t make him rich enough the first time around.

  27. don January 31st, 2010 at 7:23 am

    It is time the yankee organization stops this bull about a budget and sign Damon. It is time yankee fans speak out, boycott or whatever do get this deal done. THE COMBINE wINN, jOHNSON AND gARDNER DID NOT HIT ANYWHERE THE HOMERUNS DAMON DID LAST YEAR, c’MON damon earn to be on this team!Hal you are not like your dad, Mr Stinebrenner would not ley money stop the yankees from getting any player and Damon deserves to be a Yankee. What is next giving Jeter the Shaft? This is Bull!

  28. Drive 4- 5 January 31st, 2010 at 7:36 am

    PECOTA was wrong on 4 of 6 Division winners last year and both Wild Card picks. It’s something that’s fun to talk about, but so isn’t an Quija board.

    CC is a credit to the game of baseball. I’m proud that he’s a Yankee.

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  30. Drive 4- 5 January 31st, 2010 at 7:55 am

    Great news. Joba is headed to Tampa next week. That will put an end to any speculation about him coming to camp being out of shape like last year.

    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports.....6KbzuFkvdM

  31. crawdaddy January 31st, 2010 at 8:12 am

    By the way, that’s not Joba in that picture with Mo and Arod. If it was then he should have arrived in Tampa last month with that overweight look.:)

  32. Drive 4- 5 January 31st, 2010 at 8:19 am

    crawdaddy,

    Too funny! I thought the same thing.

  33. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 January 31st, 2010 at 8:20 am

    Drive 4-5: Thank you for the update on Joba. Where did you find that info?

    Hopefully, with the Rules not in effect anymore and a timely healing of his shoulder injury he will prove to be an exciting pitcher we have many glimpses of. (ew-poor sentence structure.)

    I miss Melky already. And his dimples.

    Late to the party – but I truly believe that Rebecca was unjustly accused. Anyone who has read any of her blog articles know that she is a good writer and a true Yankee fan. Rebecca rules!

  34. crawdaddy January 31st, 2010 at 8:21 am

    I see that the little idiot over at the Daily News thinks the Yankees and Damon can still make a deal because the Yankees don’t really have a payroll budget limit. I saw that headline, but I refuse to read any article from Loopy because he’s such a hypocrite. One minute he’s critizing the Yankees for buying WS championships and the next, he’s advocating they forget about having a budget. What a little twerp.

  35. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 January 31st, 2010 at 8:34 am

    Yankees Blog By MIKE PUMA
    Last Updated: 7:06 AM, January 31, 2010
    Posted: 2:59 AM, January 31, 2010

    Joba Chamberlain’s eyes are set squarely on the fifth spot in the Yankees’ rotation.

    The right-handed pitcher told The Post last night that he will arrive in Tampa next week — well before pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report for spring training — with the idea he’s a starting pitcher for 2010. Team brass has told him to have that mindset.

    But Chamberlain also said he isn’t taking anything for granted knowing that Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves, among others, are chasing the same carrot.

    “I’m going to go in and understand a lot of guys are fighting for that spot,” Chamberlain said after an autograph signing in New Rochelle in conjunction with Steiner Sports. “Nothing is guaranteed.”

    Hughes is Chamberlain’s primary competition for the final spot in the Yankees’ rotation behind CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez.

    Hughes pitched effectively from the bullpen last year, mostly in a setup role for Mariano Rivera, and Chamberlain had a shaky season as a starter, finishing 9-6 with a 4.75 ERA as he faced an innings limit toward the end of the season. Chamberlain spent the postseason in the bullpen, leading to speculation he and Hughes, who struggled most notably in the ALCS and World Series, might trade places in 2010. That could still happen, as Hughes is expected to receive a long look for the rotation.

    Chamberlain said he’s most excited about the addition of Vazquez, whom the Yankees obtained last month in a trade with the Braves that included Melky Cabrera.

    Vazquez pitched for the Yankees in 2004 and struggled, leading to his departure after surrendering a grand slam to Boston’s Johnny Damon in Game 7 of the ALCS.

    “I think Javier Vazquez is excited to come back here and has something to prove,” Chamberlain said.

    Even in the dead of winter, the Yankees are the biggest show around.

    Alex Rodriguez, Rivera, Pettitte, Burnett, Chamberlain and Nick Swisher were among the players who entertained nearly 3,000 fans at yesterday’s autograph signing.

    With pitchers and catchers less than three weeks away from reporting to camp, several Yankees were still basking in the glory of last year’s world championship, but also ready to start discussing 2010.

    For several of the players yesterday was the first time seeing each other since November’s tickertape parade along Broadway. Rodriguez had a giant bear hug for his friend Rivera.

    “What a great team and great accomplishment,” Rivera said. “We’re like a family. It was great seeing everyone. It was like a family reunion. I like the team this coming year.”

    Chamberlain said he is done celebrating last season’s accomplishments.

    “We understand what we did last year, but this is a New Year,” Chamberlain said. “We’re the 2009 world champions, but it doesn’t mean anything now that it’s 2010.”

  36. upstate kate January 31st, 2010 at 8:40 am

    That is great news on Joba. It will be interesting to see who ends up in the 5th spot.

    Also late to the party, I enjoyed Rebecca’s post and in general enjoy her blog. it is hard for me to pick a favorite player, but Mo is definitely one of my favorites.

    and I also miss Melky already.

  37. Drive 4- 5 January 31st, 2010 at 8:45 am

    JeterJoba,

    The Joba story was in today’s NY Post

  38. Drive 4- 5 January 31st, 2010 at 8:46 am

    crawdaddy,

    You’re right on about Loopyca

  39. SJ44 January 31st, 2010 at 8:46 am

    I’m amazed why so many in the media are offended by the Yankees budget.

    Sign Johnny at all costs? Hey, I like Johnny as much as anybody on the blog. At this stage of his career, he’s not a sign at all costs player.

    Besides, the Yankees offered Jim more money than anybody has to date. What more does Lupica want?

    The guy turned it down. Nothing else the Yankees can do.

  40. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 January 31st, 2010 at 8:56 am

    It is indeed hard to pick a favorite Yankee player. I have been a Joba fan since he first came up and a Jeter fan before that. Then there is Cano, CC, Tex and Mo, of course.

    This Yankee team has so many excellent players one could appreciate and favor all of them. I am hoping to add Granderson to that list.

    It is a great day and year to be a Yankee fan!.

  41. Kevin January 31st, 2010 at 8:57 am

    SJ,
    What’s your thoughts on the Winn signing?

  42. trisha - OPPC forever - (new lucky picture from last day at the old Stadium) BRING ON THE GHOSTS! January 31st, 2010 at 8:58 am

    If you’re serious about wanting to know how many wins the Yankees will have this season, all you have to do is ask the person on this forum who guessed it last year. We had a contest and there was only one winner. That same person predicted the Yankees winning the world series.

    Hmmm. I’ll have to see if I can find the prediction chart to see who that was…

    Oh wait! That would be me.

    :D

  43. trisha - OPPC forever - (new lucky picture from last day at the old Stadium) BRING ON THE GHOSTS! January 31st, 2010 at 9:03 am

    I totally disagree with SJ. There’s a lot more the Yankees could do with regard to Damon – IF THEY WANTED TO.

    These are the New York Yankees we’re talking. They had enough “decision” room with the salaries of other players that they brought back, signed, or traded for, that if they had wanted to put it in Damon’s pocket, they would have.

    Damon is gone. Get over it. The Yankees didn’t want him enough to meet his demands. OVAH!

    By the way, don, you need to realize that not all Yankee fans are united in the desire to have Damon back. Some of us are actually happy the Yankees did not bring him back. For instance, I cared about upgrading the defense in the OF. Bringing Damon back would not have done that.

    Just sayin’

  44. upstate kate January 31st, 2010 at 9:04 am

    JJC fan
    our special ed class made a trip down to YS, which was quite an undertaking as we are close to 8 hours away. They got to meet some of the players, including Joba. He was so wonderful w/ those kids. One of them is in a wheel chair and couldn’t get to the dug out, so Joba came up into the stands to meet him.

    Trisha
    what is your prediction for this year?

  45. trisha - OPPC forever - (new lucky picture from last day at the old Stadium) BRING ON THE GHOSTS! January 31st, 2010 at 9:05 am

    Don, Cashman was quoted as saying that the book on Damon closed a long time ago. I don’t think he is going to be changing his mind at this point, not even if Damon came begging and said he’d come for next to nothing. JMO

  46. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 January 31st, 2010 at 9:05 am

    Pat M.
    Your adoration of Stevie Nicks is shared by many. My DC (male)office mate had the biggest crush on her and had many pictures of her on his desk and on the office wall.

  47. trisha - OPPC forever - (new lucky picture from last day at the old Stadium) BRING ON THE GHOSTS! January 31st, 2010 at 9:09 am

    Kate – I don’t have one yet. I thought about it this morning and nothing jumped out at me. I don’t want to force it just to come up with something. Right now I’m leaning toward going higher than last season but seriously I’m not sure.

    I will definitely have our prediction chart again. I think once ST begins and we see how our guys coalesce I’ll be ready to shout out a number.

    That said, I’ll start taking predictions as soon as people want to start giving them. Is anything coming to you yet?

  48. Davor January 31st, 2010 at 9:11 am

    Complete explanation should be on Prospectus site and possibly on a few other blogs, but in essence, when calculating team standings from individual projections, the number of runs per game was increased by around 10%, so all the projected runs scored and allowed were too high. They corrected that error.
    PECOTA was among the best projection systems 2005 – 2008. During 2008 Silver left, and PECOTA was the worst system in 2009. We’ll see this year.
    All projection systems have tighter spread than real season. They give expected win total. Teams with unusually good/bad luck or unusually few/many injuries will heavily overperform/underperform their projections and lead to larger spread. There are very few true-talent 100-win or 100-loss teams. In the last dozen or so years only Yankees in 1998 and Mariners in 2001 might have been true-talent 100 win teams.
    As for the difference between PECOTA and CAIRO, PECOTA seems to be much more optimistic on players who have no or have very limited MLB experience, and much more severe on older players, both which would be negative for the Yankees. But that’s just my first impression, it might not be true.

  49. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 January 31st, 2010 at 9:14 am

    In all the negative comments about Joba pitching habits and I won’t list them here, people tend to forget like all Yankees, he is human. He has a big heart and does give back.

    He did not have an easy life growing up in a single parent household. He has, since he became a Yankee, taken a student and family to DisneyWorld and goes along with them and has a ball. The lucky student is selected by a coach and teacher from an elementary school near where Joba attended school.

  50. upstate kate January 31st, 2010 at 9:16 am

    Trisha
    I am thinking 102

  51. JeterJobaCanoFan2010 January 31st, 2010 at 9:17 am

    Trisha, Kate:

    My number for wins is 108. Aren’t I a true believer?

  52. Kevin January 31st, 2010 at 9:18 am

    I’ll say 101

  53. Sara January 31st, 2010 at 9:24 am

    Damon story is not over by a long shot. No team is anywhere close to signing and he may take that 6mil with 3mil deferred offer after all.

  54. trisha - OPPC forever - (new lucky picture from last day at the old Stadium) BRING ON THE GHOSTS! January 31st, 2010 at 9:27 am

    LET THE CHARTS BEGIN!!!

    :)

    JeterJobaCano – I’ll say you’re a true believer!!!

    Kate – I’m somewhere between 101 and 107. Too big a spread right now to give a guess!!!

    Kevin, got yours too.

    ************************

    If anyone else is going to give predictions, please put my name in the post. That way I can do a search and make sure I didn’t miss anyone.

    Gotta get ready to go visit the Yankees biggest fan (Sunday mass.) BBL.

    :)

  55. trisha - OPPC forever - (new lucky picture from last day at the old Stadium) BRING ON THE GHOSTS! January 31st, 2010 at 9:29 am

    Sara – that’s if the Yankees want to give up a roster spot for someone who probably has no real place on the team anymore. They have a DH, and I don’t think they would spend money on a part-time fielder, if indeed they even put him in the field. A bench player perhaps, but that isn’t what Damon wants to be and they certainly wouldn’t put out much for that.

    JMO

  56. Rick January 31st, 2010 at 9:41 am

    Convince me that Damon is a difference maker and I’ll jump on board and say, “Sign him and be quick about.”
    That not being the case, he’s a former Yankee looking for a big league job, nothing more – nothing less.
    The 2010 Yankee roster is set with just a few situations up for spring training competition.

    18 more days until pitchers and catchers take the field for 1st workouts ….

  57. Sara January 31st, 2010 at 9:52 am

    bench player ?….Damon signs and he is the left fielder, period….unless he just really stinks it up in spring training. Winn and gGafter bringing johnny back. Gardner is a late inning fielder and pinch runner right now. His bat is awful and if you think they would put Winn as the starting LF with Johnny back, well then i just will withdraw from commenting on that absurd thought,,,,,,oops…. :-)

  58. Sara January 31st, 2010 at 9:52 am

    Gardner (sp)

  59. Sara January 31st, 2010 at 9:54 am

    ack…this laptop stinks…you hopefully know what i mean…

  60. don January 31st, 2010 at 9:58 am

    ok maybe Damon did not want to come back, but Winn? What the heck, There are much better players we could of pick up or traded for, Heck if the budget is the new thing now with the yankees than let the young kids play and maybe we will find another jeter for the outfield. Yes?

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