I love the show Numb3rs. For those who aren’t familiar, it’s sort of like CSI but with (a lot) more math and the best parts are when the genius, Charlie Eppes, suddenly has a revelation about some algorithm that can help him figure out which restaurant a bunch of bank robbers will hit next.
I mention this because most people – including me – have almost no idea what Charlie is talking about when he explains his revelation, but the end result is still fascinating. It’s much the same phenomenon when it comes to PECOTA rankings.
Last week, the good folks at Baseball Prospectus used their complicated formula to predict that the Yankees would finish third in the AL East this year. Then, after some more tweaking, they decided the Yankees and Red Sox would tie for first. Now they’re saying the Yankees will finish first.
As previously stated, math isn’t my strong suit (especially since I don’t think there’s any way the Mariners finish dead last in the AL West).
I do, however, know axioms and one immediately came to mind as this worst-to-better-to-best sequence relates to Yankees fans:
Third time’s a charm?