Pinch hitting: 6 Pound, 8 Ounce Baby Joba
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Feb 03, 2010 
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Next up in the Pinch Hitters series are Conor Cashel and Kevin Seefried, who looked into the future to find possible deadline additions who could help the Yankees this season.
From the About page of their blog, 6 Pound 8 Ounce Baby Joba: ”At the age of 5, Conor Cashel and Kevin Seefried became die-hard Yankee fans. And nothing has changed since. From collecting baseball cards, to practicing John Sterling’s famous ‘Thaaaaaaaa Yankees WIN,’ to reading every article written about the Yanks, Conor and Kevin live, sleep, eat, and breathe Yankee baseball. The friends grew up in Westchester, New York, but have since moved to Denver, CO (Kevin) and Boston, MA (Conor). Inspired by the Hot Stove season, the blog was started in early December of 2008.”
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Right around July 24th, every blogger, journalist, crazed fan, and third-string catcher pulls for an addition to their team. Sometimes it works out (2008, CC Sabathia, Milwaukee). Other times, not so much (2009, Freddy Sanchez, San Francisco). Regardless, baseball lovers won’t shut up about anything transaction-related during the last two weeks of July.
Mid-season holes are unpredictable. Couldn’t Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez or Robinson Cano get injured in a June freak accident? (Dear Lord Baby Joba, I hope not). A big injury to a positional staple would spark a hunt for a player in his contract year who could take over (like Felipe Lopez in Milwaulkee when Ricky Weeks moved to the DL).
Midseason moves cause a sudden impact, so triggers are often pulled prematurely. Brian Cashman isn’t known for July blockbusters; Shawn Chacon, Wilson Betemit, and Xavier Nady highlight an unimpressive “acquired by the Yanks midseason from 2001-2009” list. Still, he did bring in David Justice to help the Yanks win ring 26. Nick Johnson, Curtis Granderson, and Javy Vazquez are already in tow, but in the words of Kenny Williams, “There’s always another move to be made.”
The level of unpredictability in the Yankees rotation is pretty high (think Everest). CC Sabathia’s the only stable rock; A.J. Burnett has a jones for getting injured and has less consistency than Chuck Knoblauch’s arm; Andy Pettitte’s old (baseball years); Javy Vazquez is dealing with variables: new stadium, league switch, NY return; then there’s a half dozen arms duking it out for slot number 5. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a midseason deal for a co-ace to complement CC as the Yanks run for a repeat. Co-aces possibly entering their contract years include Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett and Cliff Lee. Of that trio, Webb is the likeliest to be available, as his squad may very well be out of contention by July.
Webb’s career to date is enviable by most every pitcher (non-King Felix division): 3.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a Cy Young (plus, twice runner-up). His devastating sinker would induce grounders at a Bronx stadium where fly balls seem to party beyond the right field fence. Shoulder injuries kept him out from Opening Day onward in ’09, but if he’s back to his usual self, Arizona may look for a better return than two first round picks.
After dealing away Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino, and Mike Dunn, though, Cashman may be reluctant to deal more top prospects. It comes down to A.J. and Javy, if they pitch to their potential, Webb will stay in the desert or find a non-Steinbrenner-owned home; if they struggle, Webb will feel how the pinstripes pop.
Barring an injury as catastrophic as the plague, the infield will go unchanged; the outfield, however, could see changes if Nick Swisher reverts to his Chicago form, Curtis Granderson’s sinistrophobia worsens, or Brett Gardner hits like Brett Gardner.
Josh Willingham, Rajai Davis, Hunter Pence, and Luke Scott may be made available when their teams fall out of contention; all earn more than the league minimum and their GMs wouldn’t mind shedding some salary and collecting young talent. The big fish, of course, is a Ray; Carl Crawford’s contract runs out at year’s end, but Tampa is likely to hold onto Carl. Even if the Rays fell out of the race, the Yanks won’t sell the farm for two months of Crawford; rather, they’d wait until winter and buy him.
Aside from Carl, the only promising outfielder with an expiring contract is Jayson Werth, who the Phillies don’t figure to have any interest in losing as they defend their NL Crown. The Yanks will sign either Werth or Crawford next winter (86.678% certain), which makes acquisitions of the signed-past-2010 quartet I mentioned earlier doubtful.
That said, I don’t see an impact outfielder arriving in New York any time after February 20th. The Yanks will either acquire someone before the season, or after it, the midseason options just don’t line up with their long-term plans.
As for the bullpen, don’t look for any swaps midseason. The Yanks have more depth than the Mariana’s Trench, and can demote/call-up as necessary until the ‘pen is tolerable. Cashman is the poster-boy of the “I don’t overpay for relief” philosophy, so the biggest bullpen addition will likely be Mark Melancon or Ivan Nova.
Deadline deals are meant to fill holes; which the Yanks don’t have any of the glaring genre… yet. Cashman won’t give up much for marginal upgrades (ie Rajai Davis over Brett Gardner), but if a move increases the probability of ring twenty-eight, he’ll look into it. Thus, a Brandon Webb acquisition is realistic, while there’s an ant-sized chance that Bronson Arroyo sports the pinstripes in 2010; Arroyo’s barely an upgrade over Sergio Mitre or any in-house starter; Webb, though, would give the Yanks a 1-2 punch for mowing through the playoffs. The deadline isn’t for six months, but already we can see July headlines shaping.
I don’t think the Yankees are about to further deplete their farm system.
If Webb is Webb then adding him would actually give the rotation the look that Cash had wanted to start the ’09 season with Webb replacing Wang as the intended #2 behind CC and giving you that dominant sinkerballer to throw at the stadium in a home playoff game
I know this is still talked about and argued about due to the presence of Tabata in the deal, but I don’t count the Nady/Marte trade as a miss by Cashman. Nady was useful when healthy and Marte came up huge in the 2009 playoffs, and is poised for a good year in 2010 (hopefully). Plus the rest of the trade was filler, so really, Tabata’s upside for a few good months of Nady and an amazing playoffs + potentially more out of Marte is worth it to me.
Also, you guys also forgot the Bobby Abreu salary dump, which was a coup for Cashman even if he was just dealing from his ultimate strength (money).
There are also Cash’s smaller deadline moves that have made an impact, like getting Jose Molina straight up for current used car salesman Jeff Kennard (not sure if that’s accurate about his job, but whatever). Cashman can find useful pieces at the right price in July, so I’m sure the same will happen this year, and I’m confident he will be able to fix whatever is ailing the team mid-season.
Any time you sell low on a prospect for a player whose value will never be higher, it’s a bad trade.
NO NO NO, to National league pitchers. Especially those from the NL West. Have you seen the ballparks they play in out there. Dodger Stadium, San Fran and Arizona are all Huge Pitchers parks, Colorado is a very large stadium. Taken into consideration with the disparity of the offense in each league, I dont want national league pitchers, especially those from the west, Including the boy wonder Lincecum..
The Nady wasn’t a bad deal because Marte helped the Yankees win a WS. That’s what its all about in NY.
The pitchers that went to the Pirates in that deal did nothing. Tabata is still a wild card and even his most vocal supporters would have to admit if his power doesn’t return he’s a non-prospect.
Unfortunately, Nady got hurt. That’s the way it goes.
However, Marte helping the Yankees win the WS, and expected to be an important part of the BP this year, makes that trade worth it.
The Yanks could put together a package for Webb that would not deplete the farm very easily. By the trade deadline the depth of high end quality prospects in A – AA levels of system will have Yanks in a position of strength.
The Tampa and Trenton teams are LOADED with guys that I think will have “breakout” years this season and be very tradeable at the deadline.
Names like DJ Mitchell,Noesi,Nova-AAA,Almonte,Dave Adams,Corben Joseph,DeLeon,Suttle and Sublett,Adam Warren,Banuelos,Brackman,Nunez,Jorge Vazquez,Romine,Murphy,Pirela will I think make noise this year.
The Minor league system in some ways will be at least just as exciting to follow as the big league team and I predict we win at least 3 titles thoughout the organization including #28.
Wow. Obviously a lot of thought went into this post. A little pessimistic for me. Something can always happen.
Brandon Webb? I know he had his moments as the perennial Cy Young type, but hasn’t he dropped off form that upper tier of pitchers? Maybe his 2009 season was affected by injuries.
If any move gets made, it’ll be for a role player imo. This team is loaded, and if one guy goes down someone else will step up. Last season Wang went down. Joba stepped up in the first half. Aceves & Hughes weren’t starters anymore. That would’ve been a time to go get your co-ace. What’s up, Doc? Nothing much, hanging out in Philly.
Cashman’s fielded a good team year after year. Often the best on paper. I notice that he’s done deals at the deadline moreso to lift the team’s spirit and energy more than anything. Nothing drastic because there wasn’t the need to. The deadline seems to be bargain hunting season for Cashman. I mean, really, he got the Pirates to pay us to take Ye Lucky Charm last season!
Was it last season? When we were lagging a bit before the deadline on the West Coast? No Wang, Aceves strugged in transition? Joba running out of gas? Was it then that Cashman said, “No big moves, we’ve got enough to win”? Sort of implying that the team needed to pick it up themselves? I could have my years mixed up.
Anyway, thoughtful piece. Positive thinking, because &*^* happens!
But they didn’t sell low on a prospect. He’s a kid that was somewhat overhyped and hasn’t lived up to the hype.
That’s not selling low.
Aside from Yankee fans, scouting weren’t mixed on Tabata. Most of them didn’t think much of him.
He never really grew as a player.
He may in Pittsburgh. This is an important year for him.
He has to begin to develop some power because he isn’t fast enough to be a marginal power hitter and play the corner OF.
Some guys peak early. So far, that’s Tabata.
The Yankees have more toolsy OF’s in their system right now than Tabata.
If he was still here, he wouldn’t be any closer to cracking the Yankees lineup than he was 2 years ago.
“The Nady wasn’t a bad deal because Marte helped the Yankees win a WS. That’s what its all about in NY.”
Marte did, not Nady, but there is no way that Cash would have traded Tabata for Marte. My guess is that if he wanted Marte alone, the price would have been much cheaper.
I think the Yankees will shy away from trading for a guy coming off shoulder surgery. They have been down that road before.
They can just wait until the off-season, sign Cliff Lee and not give up anything except cash.
Which is their preferred way of doing business for high end players.
But you can’t predict injuries. At the time they made that trade, they needed both guys and were trying to make the playoffs.
Nobody could have predicted Nady would have gotten hurt. If he didn’t, he would have been a contributor to last year’s team.
“But they didn’t sell low on a prospect. He’s a kid that was somewhat overhyped and hasn’t lived up to the hype.”
Less than a year earlier, Tabata could have been a major piece in a Santana deal. In a few short months his value had plummeted because like many young kids, the maturation process is not always linear. But he was only 19 when he was traded, and he’s not yet 22 now.
Would be nice to still have Tabata in the system, just like it would be nice to also have Arodys Vizcaino in the system. I am all for keeping prospects, especially the ones with the most upside.
However, I am also aware that trading minor league players that are still only best characterized by their upside, for proven major league vets, can help teams win immediately. And as a fan I would rather watch my team win the World Series, and the Nady/Marte trade helped that happen, and hopefully trading for Vazquez will do the same in 2010.
That said, I also am glad to see that there is still a lot in the farm system’s coffers talent-wise, allowing this cycle of selling upside to win in the near-term to repeat itself and yet still not have the prospect well come up totally dry, as it did in the last decade. So yes it hurts to see touted prospects go, but I am more confident nowadays that there will be more guys following in their footsteps then I was when Brandon Claussen was the system’s best pitching prospect.
“But you can’t predict injuries. At the time they made that trade, they needed both guys and were trying to make the playoffs.”
Even when he was healthy, Nady was only slightly better than a league average hitter who was in the middle of an out of context season at age 29. That’s buying high. I don’t believe in mortgaging the future for quick fixes.
Let’s tweak the filter to include “Tabata” and “Vizcaino”.
Rich has a good point, it’s not good to sell low.
But it’s done. History. And time marches on. Other players emerge that make you forget those guys.
In fact, I think Cashman’s done a good job. None of the guys he let go became superstars in the big leagues. And we’re still in the playoffs virtually year after year.
I don’t know the other farm systems very well, but I’m sure every fanbase laments losses of their team’s (Tabata) & (Vizcaino).
Brian Cashman isn’t known for July blockbusters; Shawn Chacon, Wilson Betemit, and Xavier Nady highlight an unimpressive “acquired by the Yanks midseason from 2001-2009” list.
Bobby Abreu? Also Bruney was a midseason waiver claim. And I think you’ve discounted Hinske and Hairston a bit
Adam B.,
Clearly the winter is Cashman’s favorite season.
“I don’t believe in mortgaging the future for quick fixes.”
Rich, may I ask if you believe in “rebuilding” and allowing for the possibility of a year or years that you don’t qualify for the post-season?
You aren’t mortgaging the future. Jose Tabata wasn’t going to be the centerpiece in any Johan Santana deal for 2 reasons:
1. The Twins wanted the young Yankee arms.
2. His game and attitude were certainly not going to be accepted by the Twins.
Without power, he’s a non-prospect. Especially if he doesn’t watch his weight.
You can’t project guys 5 years out. The Yankees have always been a win now organization.
You can count on one hand, probably less, the number of prospects over the last 15 years they have traded away who became all stars. In that time, they have won 5 WS and made the playoffs all but one year since 1995.
I think every organization in baseball would take that tradeoff every time.
Regardless of what talents Tabata had or has, he stalled out and had become more trouble than he was worth. As far as vizcaino, he has a chance to be good….according to his numbers, but, it’s doubtful that more than two people on this board has ever seen him, but, they act like NYY had just traded Ron Guidry after 1977. NYY has more than enough pitchers just like him and more than a few that could be better.
If a mistake was made in trading the wrong players, it very well will be trading Coke and Cabrera.
How was the future mortgaged. It wasn’t.
They are younger and more athletic in the OF with the addition of Granderson and Gardner. They are also cost effective.
They are coming off a WS title and still have Joba and Hughes on the team. Had they traded one of them, I could buy the “mortgaging the future” argument.
Trading A Ball OF’s and pitchers, especially short season arms, is not mortgaging the future. Those guys are too far away from the majors to know exactly what they are long term.
Seems to me they struck the balance of winning, reloading and still have possess a farm system with talent.
‘While a walk is better than most outs, some outs are better than walks. (SF, Sqz Bunt, hit & run where lead runner takes 2 bases etc.)”
Ray, I gotta disagree with you here. Here’s the problem. If a batter walks instead of doing any of those things, the NEXT batter can still do ALL of those things, just with more men on base.
You NEVER trade an out for a baserunner… ever. Sometimes you trade an out to advance a baserunner I agree, and you do that because you can’t gaurantee a batter will reach base safely, and in fact, the odds are against it.
But walks are better than outs, if we’re evaluating the final result and not predicting an outcome.
SJ, couldn’t have said it better. I love prospects as much as the next, but thanks to Marte, the Yankees have a WS title securely in their grasp right now. I’ve little faith in Tabata at this point, but even if he develops, was he going to be a major contributor to a title run last year? I have serious doubts anyway as to his ability to deal with NY given the problems he had in our minor league system. I will never, ever have regrets about giving up Ohlendorf.
I don’t agree with most everything in this pos. The negativity about the regarding the rotation is silly……I still get a kick out of people waiting for AJ to get hurt again as the fact that he changed his between-starts routine (among other things) doesn’t seem to count for much. I won’t bother to defend his year last year since it’s just so much wasted breath.
I’d also like to know in what universe is Mike Dunn a top prospect?
Your future is mortgaged when you develop good talent. Loads of it. Then unload all of them because your owner is too cheap to pay them what they’re worth.
Everyone lauds Billy Beane. I would be livid to see the good talent go out while we sign guys like cheap players like Jason Giambi.
Oakland, Florida, and the Pirates. They all follow the pattern. And it only worked out for the Marlins. Of course no one in the state of Florida was paying attention.
i agree with m. this post is a little pessimistic for me too.
GB, I agree with you most of the time, but not here. I like Melky, but he’s hardly someone to regret trading and Coke, IMO, was not that good. Maybe he’ll be better in a bigger park, but I have no problem losing him.
As it turned out re: Santana, that turned out to be one of those, “best deals you make are the one’s you don’t make” deals.
He has finished his last two seasons on the operating table. Doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, and the Yankees still have Hughes.
Melky Cabrera, who would have been in that deal, contributed a lot to last year’s title.
They have CC Sabathia, a guy as good or better than Santana at this point, and is healthier.
I don’t see any downside for the Yankees not acquiring Santana.
You know who I always thought had a pretty good career after the Yanks traded him?
Bob Wickman.
He got traded for Graeme Lloyd back in 96′.
You can put that one in the ledger as a win.
While I agree the Yanks certainly didn’t mortgage the future in trading Tabata I do think that Tabata is a legit prospect and you are selling him way short SJ44.
As you know power is usually the last to come in a hitter’s game and all of Tabata’s other periphs are more than advanced to suggest he has a chance to be a perrenial .300+ hitter. He’s played his entire pro career two levels advanced for his age and his makeup has been his real issue and I think the Yanks deemed him available mainly for that reason.
As far as his talent if Tabata gets his head together and dedicates himself to his game he’d probably wind up as a Raul Mondesi type player will All Star potential. The kid is a born hitter.
Ironically though, they don’t win the WS in 1996 without Graeme Lloyd. He was unbelievable in the post-season. Especially in that WS.
The list is very, very small of deals for younger guys that have hurt the Yankees the last 15 years.
They never get any credit for it but, they self-evaluate their system better than just about anybody in the game today.
Coke and Melky are examples of selling high. I forget who came back for Coke, but they obviously felt they got what they could out of him.
And Melky’s value would decrease as his salary increased. People don’t like the fact that he’s gone. But the cold hard possibility is that Gardner would give you close to what Melky did at a 1/6th of the cost.
Betsy -Romine wasn’t built in a day
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:20 am
GB, I agree with you most of the time, but not here. I like Melky, but he’s hardly someone to regret trading and Coke, IMO, was not that good. Maybe he’ll be better in a bigger park, but I have no problem losing him.
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Coke pitched well a majority of the time last year, and he was still a rookie. As far as Cabrera, I’d rather have him than Gardner. Gardner’s main talent is speed, and he used that talent poorly. He forgot the things that got him to NY in the first place. whether he starts to remember those things in 2010, I don’t know. Yankee fans and Girardi had better hope that he does.
“The kid is a born hitter.”
Maybe this is why his wife was attracted to him? j/k
stuckey
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:10 am
Not all walks are even. Also, not all walks by batting position are even as well. That is why I was much higher on Andre Dawson than some stats folks because he was an RBI machine. All hits aren’t equal as well. A dead pull hitter like Ted Williams could have had a lot more hits if he had just poked a few hits to LF. His reasoning was it was sacrificing who he was as a hitter for a single to left against the shift. A walk by Gardner is more valuable than a walk by Giambi. Gardner makes most walks a double. Giambi makes most walks a station to station event, plus takes his power threat away.
Ideally, if a walk was just as good as a hit, then there would never be an intentional walk.
As a player and coach I recognize that most outs aren’t as good as a walk, but on a suicide squeeze play that is what the goal is or even a sacrifice bunt. Sac Flys are better than some walks too, because they get the run in for sure, whereas a walk may not ultimately deliver the needed run.
I am only stating these things to show that Sabermetrics is too simplistic to be relative. I enjoy the numbers almost as much as you, but their worth is deficient. That is why teams have their own systems and complex algorithms to decide a players worth with weighting factors.
I once saw Yogi foul 15+ pitches in a world series game before getting a hit. Yet most ABs he hit the 1st pitch. Sabermetrics would suggest he wasn’t a tough out. Yet in reality he was. BTW, I love the fact that data is being collected in a form that fans can see. LOL! But my only dislike is the actual quoting of a stat (not by you Stuckey) by an unknowing fan as if the stat is gospel.
Nady and Marte for quad A pitchers and a OF who has yet to do anything was a very good trade. Nady was good in 2008 and would have played a large role in 2009. As the post points out, you cannot predict injury.
Another GREAT trade of Cashman’s was Bobby Abreu. Unless Kansas forward CJ Henry still counts as a prospect.
Overall, Cashman has done a very good job of finding coal and turning them into diamonds, for a very short period of time. And he’s done this w/o hurting the teams future.
How many traded prospects (in last decade) have gone on to do anything? Westbrook (meh). That’s about it.
GB, I don’t like Gardner at all and I’d rather have Melky. However, I’d rather have Gardner and Vasquez than Melky and ? in that 4th spot.
Coke gave up way too many big HRs……and I’m just not a fan of his.
Green Beret,
It’s not a matter of personal preference.
The Yankees made a business decision. Just like they chose to replace Bernie with Melky (who?). He could do the job and was cheap.
The reason (I feel) that Melky’s not here is because the Yankees weren’t going to pay a 4OF type $3M.
Cano got a long-term deal. Melky did not. And 2-3 years from now, Gardner will follow a similar path.
“I don’t see any downside for the Yankees not acquiring Santana.”
That’s a HUGE understatement. Santana, while good in NL, is losing velocity and giving up a ton of HR’s. Not good trends.
Also, Santana almost certainly would have meant no CC.
SJ44
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:25 am
Ironically though, they don’t win the WS in 1996 without Graeme Lloyd. He was unbelievable in the post-season. Especially in that WS.
The list is very, very small of deals for younger guys that have hurt the Yankees the last 15 years.
They never get any credit for it but, they self-evaluate their system better than just about anybody in the game today.
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Lloyd and Weathers made quite a surprising tandem in the ’96 PS.
I’m surprised that the mid-season upgrade is on the table for discussion; however, this does have some merit. Webb would be great but would come at great cost. Given that with three big ticket pictures in their walk year waiting until next winter, with Petit Dollars available might not be a bad option. I think it is worth noting that we really don’t have any big league talent close that isn’t already there in the pitching department and a move early may make sense.
That is why I was much higher on Andre Dawson than some stats folks because he was an RBI machine. All hits aren’t equal as well. A dead pull hitter like Ted Williams could have had a lot more hits if he had just poked a few hits to LF.
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1. Andre Dawson was hardly an RBI machine. RBI per PA, standard RBIs in a season, any measure you want he was not a ‘machine’. 100 RBIs only 4 times.
2. If Ted Williams changed his approach to go the other way it might have affected his hitting overall, leading to less hits in the long run.
Off the top of my head I can only really think of Mike Lowell, and that was a bad trade albeit the Yanks haven’t been really been lacking at 3rd,
and then there’s Dioneer Navarro but his All-Star days have ended almost as quickly as they appeared.
“Off the top of my head I can only really think of Mike Lowell, and that was a bad trade albeit the Yanks haven’t been really been lacking at 3rd,”
And that move was what, 2000?
As stated above, the deals not made. Mo was almost traded in 94. I remember Cano and Wang as part of the Randy Johnson discussions. Good god would that have been bad.
Betsy brings up a good point. Who do you guys think the Braves would rather have had in the trade? Melky or Gardner? Any possibility that the Braves asked for Gardner, but Cashman said no?
Gardner is still here because he’s not only cheap this year, but next year, too.
Cashman did a good job of trading Melky before more difficult decisions (non-tendering on the eve of free agency type of stuff) presented themselves.
Betsy -Romine wasn’t built in a day
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:32 am
GB, I don’t like Gardner at all and I’d rather have Melky. However, I’d rather have Gardner and Vasquez than Melky and ? in that 4th spot.
Coke gave up way too many big HRs……and I’m just not a fan of his.
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Rookie pitchers tend to make rookie pitching mistakes, but, improve. Not saying that he compares with Rivera, but, Rivera gave up 11 homers as a rookie pitcher in 67 innings.
An article from 2005 that builds a team out of players the Yankees traded away:
http://www.newpartisan.com/hom.....-away.html
don’t count tabata out now
i think he is better than ajax
after tabata got traded he quickly broke out of his slump
he was great in the afl going .392/.448/.517 line in 120 at-bats & 6 for 7 in his last game
if he can develope some power he can be a very good player
Two problems with Coke, as I see it. One, he’s a 40 year old rookie.
Two, he’s a lefty reliever how struggles to get good lefties out.
I swear he gave up 14 HR’s to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau this year.
Yanks very weak behind A-Rod and Jeter.
Yes, Pena can fill in but I fear he will not reproduce even last year’s batting numbers. His minor league history at the plate is poor. Still, his defense might justify a week or two filling in for Derek. But there’s really nothing behind A-Rod. Russo and Corona have not to my knowledge played much at third. You have to go all the way down to A Ball for even a prayer of a replacement (Suttle? Joseph?)
This organization has gotten away without solid infield back-up much of last few years. But they were sub-500 with Cody Ransom at third. And apart from the normal threat of injury to any player, a 35 year old third baseman just a year from hip surgery would seem to beg fro at least some adequate back-up.
Yes, they were sub-500 with Cody Ransom, but you can’t possibly think it’s his fault?
Wang (unknown at the time) was not right. CC slow start. Tex slow start. Bruney wasn’t right (?).
Yankees “very weak” behind Arod and Jeter means nothing.
Arod and Jeter are going to play at least another 4-6 years each.
Nobody is sitting in the minor leagues waiting to take over for Jeter or Arod for 6 years.
If Tabata develops power, he’s a prospect. If he doesn’t, he isn’t.
By the time we know for sure, 4-5 years will have transpired from the trade. That’s an eternity in Yankeeland.
William Buckner
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:45 am
Two problems with Coke, as I see it. One, he’s a 40 year old rookie.
Two, he’s a lefty reliever how struggles to get good lefties out.
I swear he gave up 14 HR’s to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau this year.
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I remember a right handed relief pitcher that was the same age as Coke when they broke in that had trouble getting right handed hitters. His name escapes me, but, I hear that he’s doing fairly well.
didn’t pena do very well in winter ball ???
he could be a hitter that is maturing late
it happens
same with cervelli
we just don’t know what we have with both of them
they both held their own in the majors at the plate
Coke is 28. He gave up 10 HR all season.
People forget that he was the saving grace of the bullpen early in the season (apart from Mo of course).
i’m a little too eager for spring training to begin to think much about mid season pick ups, but the yankees left some room for additions as the season goes on.
cashman didn’t spend everything he had in cash or prospects to put a team together. he has some room for moves if he needs to make them.
a lot of having to make moves depends on how well other teams do. if the red sox or rays run off with a big lead it changes things.
if the yankees are scuffling for a wild card position that changes things. right the now the yankees appear as loaded as you’d want a team to be considering the strength of other teams.
i think a lot of baseball needs to be played before we worry too much about midseason trades.
but not a bad post by conor and kevin.
But every HR was memorable.
Coke would throw his hand up in triumph. Just like a matador!
“Not all walks are even. Also, not all walks by batting position are even as well.”
No argument…
“As a player and coach I recognize that most outs aren’t as good as a walk, but on a suicide squeeze play that is what the goal is or even a sacrifice bunt. Sac Flys are better than some walks too, because they get the run in for sure, whereas a walk may not ultimately deliver the needed run.”
But Ray, your point here is VERY anecdotal and I’d sugest somewhat more relevant to a game played at lower level’s than minor league.
I’ve been on little league, high school and even adult leagues where you had little confidence in the guy in the batter’s box to achieve a positive result. In these cases, yeah, perhaps a squeeze or SF might be somewhat preferable to leaving it up to the next guy.
But at the major league level, I can rarely justify a case were ANY out is preferable to an additional baserunner.
Again your examples above are dependent on the specific outcome of the NEXT batter NOT being able to achieve what the walked batter did, and that’s very hard to justify from a purely argumenative standpoint.
“But my only dislike is the actual quoting of a stat (not by you Stuckey) by an unknowing fan as if the stat is gospel.”
Understood… and I’m glad you said it because that’s exactly what I continue to contend… Randy and GB7′s rejection of advanced metrics is CLEARLY not based on the relative value of the metrics, but their distaste for their advocates.
That’s a VERY important distinction that I believe these two gentlemen are not at all recognizing.
“Coke is 28. He gave up 10 HR all season.
People forget that he was the saving grace of the bullpen early in the season (apart from Mo of course).”
Right, 28 is not young for a rookie.
And 10 HR all season is quite a few for a guy who frequently pitched to one guy.
Jerkface
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:36 am
1. Andre Dawson was hardly an RBI machine. RBI per PA, standard RBIs in a season, any measure you want he was not a ‘machine’. 100 RBIs only 4 times.
2. If Ted Williams changed his approach to go the other way it might have affected his hitting overall, leading to less hits in the long run.
LOL! We totally agre on #2. But number one we differ. Dawson played on some sorry teams and was pitched around when runners were in scoring position. He tried to hit bad pitches to help the team, because they were a weak hitting team. Stats by themselves don’t reflect that. He was an awesome hitter and a productive RBI guy. I wonder what his percentages were to drive in potential runs versus others? But my reasoning to start with was based on whether a hit from him was as good as a walk, or even a productive out was as good as a walk. Relativeness & importance of an AB is hard to quantify. I would further say the obvious that not all hits are equal either. Up 10-1, single versus 1-1 tie with a single.
Lastly, the stats I’ve looked at do not adjust for ballparks or quality of pitcher or opposing team defense.
Crawford looked tremendous stealing 2B & 3B against the Red Sox. But no factor is given to the pitcher not holding a runner and V-tek with less than Damon’s arm. That is where measurements come into play. If you are going to use stats, then one needs to know how to apply them and when not too.
m
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:57 am
But every HR was memorable.
Coke would throw his hand up in triumph. Just like a matador!
********************
LMAO
I forgot about that!
m
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:57 am
But every HR was memorable.
Coke would throw his hand up in triumph. Just like a matador!
————————————————————
You mean like Chamberlain, who didn’t have a bad game or throw a bad pitch all season?
‘Randy and GB7’s rejection of advanced metrics is CLEARLY not based on the relative value of the metrics, but their distaste for their advocates.”
stuckey-
i have a comment for you loaded and ready to go, but i think we should let conor and kevin’s post have it’s time in the sun before we continue the debate from last night and earlier this morning.
GB7,
Just commenting on his style, not his substance.
Coke would’ve been good to keep around. But I think the Yankees caught lightning in a [Coke] bottle. Then let it out before passing the bottle to the next team.
It’s very possible that the Yankees felt they got what they could out of him.
Tom in NJ -
That team would finish dead last in the AL East. Shoot, it’d probably finish dead last in the NL West.
stuckey
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:57 am
I just wanted to make sure you knew I have no argument with you. Just some others that use Sabermetrics as a fact and beyond question. I enjoy your posts!! I also enjoy Randy’s GBs & SJ’s along these lines.
William Buckner
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:02 am
“Coke is 28. He gave up 10 HR all season.
People forget that he was the saving grace of the bullpen early in the season (apart from Mo of course).”
Right, 28 is not young for a rookie.
And 10 HR all season is quite a few for a guy who frequently pitched to one guy.
————————————————————
Coke began the season at age 26 and turned 27 in July. At least try using correct facts. NYY will still find out that they need him until they find a replacement who’s name isn’t Boone Logan.
Part of the reason a big market team builds a strong farm is to trade away pieces and still have a few in reserve.
In the Yankee organization, guys are going to be blocked and not every prospect is going to develop into what you think they will.
Some say Granderson is the now of what A-Jax could be. $$ not being an issue, why hope and wait?
Selective prospect hugging is fine. Prospect hording makes less sense on a team with a $200 M dollar payroll.
Again, I think people forget how effective Coke was early in the season, when he often did pitch to more than just one batter. The alternative at that time was Edwar, Veras, Tomko, IIRC
m
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:08 am
GB7,
Just commenting on his style, not his substance.
Coke would’ve been good to keep around. But I think the Yankees caught lightning in a [Coke] bottle. Then let it out before passing the bottle to the next team.
It’s very possible that the Yankees felt they got what they could out of him.
————————————————————
And you’re defending Chamberlain’s “style”? A guy gives up 4 and 5 runs in back to back games and insists that he did well? The same thing that you hammered Kennedy for in 2008?
as far as changes that may need to be made because of a performance, i’m not sold on cervelli . the back up catcher will probably catch 40+ games so if he doesn’t do well a change would need to be made.
i know girardi is really confident he can do the job, but he’s had very few pro at bats to be given the back up catcher position .
maybe he’ll be fine, but he’s a question mark in my mind. i’m clearly not as high on him as others are.
but maybe because he’s had so few at bats in his pro career, he’s a better hitter than i think.
July 26, 2008.
The Yanks were in 3rd place in the AL East, 1 game out of the wild card, trailing Tampa by 3 games and Boston by 1. The race for the wild card was tight.
Matsui was on the DL. Melky was awful. The back of our bullpen was a pastiche of Veras, Farnsworth, Edwar, Latroy Hawkins and some others you don’t want to remember.
Cashman made a trade – McCutcheon. Karstens, Ohlendorf and Tabata, three pitchers who didn’t have a future with the Yanks, and a young outfielder who was having a terrible year, attitude issues and a prime “change of scenary” candidate, for Nady, an OF/DH who could step in for Matsui and later allow Cabrera to be benched and sent down to AAA, and Marte, a historically strong lefty reliever who could firm up the bullpen.
The trade was almost universally acclaimed on LoHud Yankees Blog. It wasn’t “mortgaging the future” for a “quick fix”, it was a necessary deal to remain competitive in 2008. If you are a GM who can’t do that deal, you should not be a GM.
2008 didn’t work out for the Yanks, but the trade was a good one.
GB,
That quotation makes indicate I was quoting another poster. And he’ll be 28 during the 2010 season.
You have to break an egg to make an omelet. Coke is an ok pitcher, that’s why someone else wanted him, but let’s not make him out to be something he isn’t.
If you want facts, 10 hrs in 60 innings. Not great for a guy put in high leverage spots.
Hey Gang
Can anyone tell me where I can find the post which contains the pasted Buster Olney column about Boras/Damon/Cashman?
It was about two or three days ago. Needed quickly, please. Huge. (sorry)
hopefully his dad doesn’t throw him in the back seat while he’s driving around hammered.
“I just wanted to make sure you knew I have no argument with you. Just some others that use Sabermetrics as a fact and beyond question.”
A couple of other fellows around here might not realize this, but so do I. The irony is these gentlemen have taken the extreme opposite position. They exemplify the same smugness, arrogance and elitism they claim to take issue with.
They claim to have as hardline a hold on what’s relevant, accurate and valuable in the realm of baeball as the people they so roundly criticize.
But they fail to see it that way. Zealots and extremists rarely do.
All I have argued is that some of the metrics can prove useful, as can and should purely human observation. Yet I’ve been labeled a stat-head, which couldn’t be any farther than the truth, merely for daring disagreeing with them.
Re: Damon…my final impression of him came after he stole those two bags and was being interviewed after the game.
He made two references to his “youthful” legs – clearly a plug with an eye on his free agent status. Selling himself after a team win.
He then went out and blew up his calf in Game 6.
Don’t blame Boras. Johnny, like any other player, is about the dollars.
He oversold himself.
SJ: “Yankees “very weak” behind Arod and Jeter means nothing”
It’ll mean a lot when one or both go down.
Who said anything about keeping a kid in the minors for 6 years? The point is there is nobody who can remotely inspire confidence as a back-up should they go down. Not a high-level prospect, not a mid-level prospect, not an older veteran who can swing a bat, not even a medocre fringe player. Relying on Pena, Coronoa and the like– recipe for mid-season disaster.
“It was about two or three days ago. Needed quickly, please. Huge. (sorry)”
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....ney_buster
I think the Yankees were a little fed up with Tabata at the time they traded him and thought that even if he did pan out his ceiling wasn’t high enough to where they couldn’t get a similar player via trade or free agency. Hind-sight is always 20-20 but as SJ said the trade may directly help them win a WS because of Marte so I have no problem with it now or when the deal was made.
“Cashman is the poster-boy of the “I don’t overpay for relief” philosophy”
Farnsworth, Quantrill, Gordon, Marte, Luis Vizcaino…
All horrible overpays by Brian, and only one is debatable (Marte)
Thank you Mr. Buckner. I’ll never say anything bad about you again. (You were a great hitter, by the way.)
GB7,
Whoa. Where’s this coming from? You brought up Joba. Not me.
If you don’t know how I feel about Joba and his “style” and “intangibles”, then you haven’t been reading my posts about him for the last year.
I was talking about Coke. And I don’t really care what he does. It’s a running gag that Nick in SF started and I was just running with it.
“Thank you Mr. Buckner. I’ll never say anything bad about you again. (You were a great hitter, by the way.)”
Say all you want, that’s why I use the handle…And I could hit, too bad Mc left me in to field.
stuckey
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:19 am
The other guys are on here much more than I am and they do indeed get bombarded with the Stat stuff from UZR and Sabermetrics in general. Don’t take it personally. They add a lot to this board. They aren’t always right, just like I’m not. But I enjoy peoples opinions. I do not enjoy someone stating they are right because UZR says so type posts. IMO, UZR is basically worthless. I also think an upgraded UZR type system will eventually bring worthwhile data and results. What is scarey is that these inaccurate stats are used to justify an opinion which in the real world would get you fired. (Except maybe at ESPN!)
I don’t even know why I care, but I’ll explain the irony of the joke.
Triumphant [matador] and HR does not equate.
LOL! We totally agre on #2. But number one we differ. Dawson played on some sorry teams and was pitched around when runners were in scoring position. He tried to hit bad pitches to help the team, because they were a weak hitting team. Stats by themselves don’t reflect that. He was an awesome hitter and a productive RBI guy. I wonder what his percentages were to drive in potential runs versus others? But my reasoning to start with was based on whether a hit from him was as good as a walk, or even a productive out was as good as a walk. Relativeness & importance of an AB is hard to quantify. I would further say the obvious that not all hits are equal either. Up 10-1, single versus 1-1 tie with a single.
–
I just don’t think these kinds of arguments hold water. What are you trying to tell me? Andre Dawson was trying so hard to help his team that he decidedly swung at terrible pitches and was awful? Wouldn’t he do the best for his time by maximizing the amount of times he got on base, while selectively swinging at good pitches and getting hits more often?
He was a ‘great hitter’ and ‘productive rbi man’, well not really. He had good power and speed, but his contact ability wasn’t great, he struck out a lot. He didn’t hit for a very high average outside of a few seasons. More seasons batting below .260 than .300.
Andre Dawson was not really a hall of famer, just like Jim Rice. Good player? Sure, but the fact that everyone has to make arguments about what he COULD HAVE DONE IF HE WANTED TO because what he did was very not-HOF in many ways annoys me.
**Consider this: AB/RBI , Andre Dawson is not even in the Top 100. Richie Sexson, Tino Martinez, and many other Non-HOFers are ahead of him.**
This post was tough to get into. Spring training has not even started. Who cares about the mid-season trades. I’m thinking about the 25 man team that goes north and seeing how they gel not speculating about future in-season needs. Man people must be itching for the season to start.
By the way Cashman has been ok at getting mid-season acquisitions: Abreu, Chacon, Aaron Boone, Dave Justice were very good addition for those year’s teams.
Just some fun facts from the AB/RBI ratio http://www.baseball-almanac.co.....rbi1.shtml
Despite not hitting for a high average later in his career, Giambi got an 20% of Giambi’s ABs resulted in an RBI.
The leaders are , of course, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.
Jorge Posada is actually on the list
So now both Jeter and Arod will go down?
If that happens, it won’t matter who their backups are, the season would be on trouble.
It’s like complaining about the backup QB to Peyton Manning.
Give me the star player and I’ll leave worrying about the backups to others.
“Don’t take it personally.”
Of course not. I pointed that out as a example of their folly, not because I take offense.
And I don’t regard bigotry and self-righteousness as some charming part of the landscape, which is what we’re talking about here…
stuckey’s been accused of being smug and arrogant. I don’t really see that…unless I’m looking in the mirror.
William Buckner
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:33 am
“Thank you Mr. Buckner. I’ll never say anything bad about you again. (You were a great hitter, by the way.)”
Say all you want, that’s why I use the handle…And I could hit, too bad Mc left me in to field.
******************
You were in for defense too!!!!!!! LOL
they thing about backups is that you will not find star players as backups. We can not have another jeter backing up jeter. same with a-rod obviously. if they go down, you have to tread water until they come back.
Best you can hope for is pena, corona etc will fill in on the right left side and go a decent job.
Wave Your Hat
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:18 am
July 26, 2008.
The Yanks were in 3rd place in the AL East, 1 game out of the wild card, trailing Tampa by 3 games and Boston by 1. The race for the wild card was tight.
Matsui was on the DL. Melky was awful. The back of our bullpen was a pastiche of Veras, Farnsworth, Edwar, Latroy Hawkins and some others you don’t want to remember.
****************
FYI-
I fully blame the trade of Farnsworth for Pudge on deadline day as the reason we did not make the playoffs.
I think injuries did us in. Losing Wang, Posada, and Matsui was too much to overcome.
Erica – always OPPC – Is done with Brian Cashman!
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:58 am
FYI-
I fully blame the trade of Farnsworth for Pudge on deadline day as the reason we did not make the playoffs.
**************
Okay, not FULLY blame, but I think that deal was a trade too far. (Before everyone starts yelling at me).
Our bullpen was a hodgepodge, but it was actually one of the strengths of that 2008 team. Posada was on the DL too and Molina and the other guy (can’t recall his name right now) were actually doing a decent job filling in.
I think that trade messed up whatever little chemistry that 2008 had and Pudge did not do a good job. And then the bullpen fell totally apart
Erica
And I blame Pudge for some of the issues that Joba has had. I firmly believe he was injuried that day in Texas that Pudge tried to throw out a base stealer and Joba had to dive to the ground. If i remember correctly he went on the dl shortly after. He hasn’t been the same with his velocity on a consistent basis since than.
And we lost Joba, too. But that one you might be able to place on Pudge.
jinx, jennifer! Where’ve you been?
———————-
And Erica, I thought you’re not supposed to be posting from work? Do you have a PSH? (see if you can guess that one!)
m
February 3rd, 2010 at 12:02 pm
And we lost Joba, too. But that one you might be able to place on Pudge.
***********************
I’ve always blamed Pudge for that. Maybe that’s unfair, but I don’t care.
“It’s like complaining about the backup QB to Peyton Manning.”
Speaking of the Super Bowl SJ, with the Saints threatening big hits on Manning, if he goes down then that game will be over quickly. The Colts could have done better with their back up this year as Painter looks weak.
At least the Saints have Brunell who has playoff experience.
Maybe we could use a better IF backup this year as well?
Hey all,
Kevin from 6P8OBJ here. Couple of things…1. I know the post is pessimistic, but you need some pessimism to fathom midseason deals at this point. If optimistic, I’d say the Yanks would have no reason to deal for anyone at the deadline, which doesn’t make for much great discussion. Something has to go wrong for a midyear deal to be necessary. 2. Nady/Marte deal was smart. Didn’t work out how we wanted, but Tabata was having disciplinary problems and Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen and Jeff Karstens weren’t that important to the Yanks. Tabata’s improved, but at the time, the deal was smart.
To Betsy -Romine wasn’t built in a day : AJ should be fine this year; that said you can’t just discount his injury history. His arm will always have people worrying, even if he has changed his routine.
To William Buckner: Sorry I forgot to mention the Abreu deal, that was a Coup and a half. ps, great pseudonym.
To Lardin: No National League pitchers? Really? And all NL West pitchers are bad because of pitcher’s parks? Umm, Coors Field anyone? I understand the accounting for ballpark size and level of competition, but if you honestly don’t think that Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley, Dan Haren, and Clayton Kershaw are people you DONT want on your team….then I’d suggest you re-think that.
To SJ44: I expect the Yanks to sign Lee in the offseason, or to at least be one of the top contenders for his services. That said, Webb is a guy that would be a great rental (a la CC in Milwaulkee). He’d be a huge boost to the roster in the postseason, when pitching is a pretty big deal, specifically at the front of the rotation. I don’t think the Yanks are going to be giving up a Montero or anything for Webb, but if the price is right, and they see a fit, they’d look at what Webb would cost.
To Paul T: Cashman bought those guys….a long time ago. Look at the 2009 ‘pen. Look at the projections for the 2010 ‘pen. He learned from his mistakes, and has taken to the “see what sticks from the farm” approach.
Thank you all for reading and commenting,
and GO YANKS!
Joba bless,
Kevin
m
February 3rd, 2010 at 12:04 pm
jinx, jennifer! Where’ve you been?
———————-
And Erica, I thought you’re not supposed to be posting from work? Do you have a PSH? (see if you can guess that one!)
*************
Personal Secretary Helper????
I am not supposed to be, my job is just insanely boring and since I am here for 12 hours a day, something has to give
Erica,
I’d rather you develop a Pretend Smoking Habit than risk your job.
Seriously.
Kevin,
Thanks for the follow-up. Good job with the thought-provoking guest post.
New Post: A second half to remember
A bit late but -
Last nite’s banter between the “Pro and Anti” statistics posters was fantastic (despite a bit of repetition) !!!
This is what makes this blog good baseball reading !!!
For those that weren’t involved or haven’t had the time to read it all (over a few threads); here are 3 posts/responses that I thought were terrific:
stuckey February 2nd, 2010 at 11:28 pm
“there’s nothing nostalgic or romantic about what i’m saying. let’s go yankees wonders why some people don’t like sabermetrics. the simple reason is that act like know it alls when in reality they don’t know much about the total baseball experience.”
But they aren’t attempting to define the total baseball experience. They endeavor to do what they endeavor to do, which is is provide deeper analysis that’s been historically available into a particular iteration of the game, which is how the game is played at the Major League level.
Randy, very simply, if you agree there is any value to calculating how many hits a batter got per 10 AB’s, or how many runs a pitcher gave up per 9 innings, or how many HR’s a batter hit in a season, then you’re argument is by default invalid.
ALL these people you so loathe is expanding upon and TRYING to devise more insightful methods of ways to qualify performance in the sport.
If you can argue you find NO value in batting avg, ERA, etc… then you got an pure argument. Not one I’d agree with, but pure nonetheless.
You can only reject statistical analysis genuinely if you reject ALL statistical analysis.
“you played well into your thirties. you don’t think that gave you any insight into baseball? that makes no sense to me at all. you obviously liked the game and still do. why do you think that someone like bill james knows something you don’t?”
Does Bill James know something I don’t about the relative performance of specific players who have or do play the game of professional ML baseball?
I should hope he does.
I can find no appealing argument that suggests to me that calculating how often (for instance) a player gets a hit when he puts the ball in play doesn’t have some insightful value, in a PROFESSIONAL iteration of the game that involves assembling the most effective team of players on a fixed budget.
“personally i like what it feels like to throw and hit a baseball. there is nothing that a sabermetrican can figure out that’s going to impact on that or to the feel that anyone who plays the game at any level gets from it.
sabermetricians are just not that important to the game.”
But that’s not really what’s at issue. I honestly don’t think there is a single sabermetrician that attempts to generate any insight as to why YOU like to throw it hit a baseball.
What they can offer insight to is the relative and comparative performance of say Carl Crawford and Johnny Damon in terms of how they hit and throw a baseball and how they impact a game of ML baseball, which is not even close to being the same thing as you’re suggesting.
“i’m just saying if it wasn”t fun to play catch there’d be no game to study game theory.”
I can’t imagine there is a man, woman or child alive that would argue that point with you.
“just don’t try to hijack the game and act like it’s theirs.”
And I believe this is what your objection boils down to – a feeling of resentment that someone is trying to tell you they know something more than you do about something you love.
This is not unique to baseball “purists” and baseball sabermetricians. This is an age-old conflict that between people who prefer simple concepts and people who attempt deeper understanding of dynamics.
And for the record. I don’t place automatic value in all the conclusions of sabermetricians. They can be wrong too.
What I respect is what they ATTEMPT to do.
To be brutally forthright I find it somewhat sad and troublesome that some people resent the idea that someone knows something more than they do.
Me? I want to know more and learn. Be corrected when I;m wrong. Till the day I die.
Rich in NJ February 3rd, 2010 at 12:10 am
“when looking into sabermetric data it’s often flawed like that”
Who ever said that sabermetric data isn’t flawed?
But so is observation.
That’s why both used in tandem is so valuable
SJ44 February 3rd, 2010 at 9:32 am
I think when either side just stands on their side of the fence, with no entry into “enemy territory” each side misses something.
For example, when I hear people say, “the numbers don’t mean anything”, that’s not true.
Conversely, when I hear people say, “There is no such thing as chemistry, its just about the numbers”, that’s definitely not true.
Its all about taking all the information available to you and using it correctly.
In football for example, nobody does it better than the Colts. When you look at the number of undrafted and low drafted players on their roster, they do a great job of combining all of their resources to fill their roster.
Baseball is still new to the party in this regard, IMO.
For the non-stat people….I’ve seen scouts completely ignore 5-10 pitchers because they aren’t 6-2 and above and don’t throw 92-94. Kids that would be good prospects get passed over for big kids who flame out. Happens all the time.
On the other side of the fence, I’ve seen teams ignore obvious strengths or weaknesses of a player that could have been determined through sabermetrics.
In the end, everything has value when you are evaluating players and putting together teams. The key though is to have a philsophy for team building and stick to it and not change with the wind.
If you do, like the Colts do (and the Yankees to a very large extent), you are competitive for titles every year. Regardless of the turnover on your roster.
**** sabermetric data isn’t perfect…and ‘gut feeling’ ain’t too perfect either !!!
**** too many stats do not ruin the love of the game
**** not enuf stats do not ruin the love for the game
**** Thank you for keeping this baseball blog on baseball.
stuckey-
UZR is far from “basically worthless”. However, it doesn’t reflect gospel truth either. Like any measurement, you just can’t check your brain at the door when dealing with it. Don’t rely on it for 1B or catcher, watch for sudden changes in a players UZR rating and be aware of problem locations like LF at Fenway. Compare it to +/- and yes, even your own judgment.
But it’s far from useless.
SJ44
Tabata IS A PROSPECT right now. He’s top 30-50 in most ratings systems right now. Accept it.
As far as someone complaining about depth behind ARod or Jeet, get over it those guys will play 150 + games for the few years but as far as org depth behind them;
Nunez is playing SS at AAA this season @ 24 yrs old and would be in the mix should Jeet get hurt for an extended period of time. Could be a rh Cano type bat @ ss with 20-30 steal speed.
Brandon Laird is in AA this season playing 1b and 3b and is a good hitter with ML pedigree. If he can avoid the slow start this season could have a HUGE year…290.-.300+ with power as he hit 23 homers in ’08 playing with Montero. Had a great AFL season this fall after ripping the second half of this season in Tampa as the rbi guy for a title winning team.
“…the outfield could see changes if…Brett Gardner hits like Brett Gardner”
When did a #9 hitter with a triple slash line of 270/345/379, along with the ability to swipe 50 bags, become an albatross?
That’s a better OBP than leadoff types like Franklin Gutierrez, Granderson, Kinsler, Freddy Sanchez, Eckstein, BJ Upton etc, plus guys like Brandon Phillips, David Ortiz, and Mike Lowell.
I’m not saying he’ll hit like those guys (certainly not for power), but he’s hardly hurting the team. And that’s before you factor in his defensive abilities. I’m sure the pitching staff would love to see him out there.
The Yankees don’t have glaring holes? Mid season holes are unpredictable? Let me predict a few: Left Field; Fifth Starter; Right Field; #5 hitter; #2 hitter. Injuries will determine what will unpredictably add to this predictable list.
KO- Right now, Brett Gardner/Randy Winn in left is not a glaring hole. #2 hitter is Nick Johnson, not a hole. Number 5, try Curtis Granderson. 5th starter? Joba, Hughes, Ace, Mitre, Gaudin, McAllister, Nova…its not a hole right now. As you saw, I predicted that left and the 5th starter are the likeliest to end up as holes. RF is not a hole (see Nick Swisher). Injuries are unpredictable: sure, its more likely that AJ Burnett goes down than workhorse Javy Vazquez, but still, no one saw Jeter’s Opening Day injury in Toronto coming a few years back.
David- I like Gardner too. Still, he’s not exactly Pete Rose, and most expect him to decline somewhat in 2010. His minor league numbers were fine, but scouts have long thought he can’t handle the bigs at the plate. Until he falters though, I’m fine with him in left, or rather, center. Sorry, the Brett hitting like Brett line was harsh, but so is baseball.
Gardner/Winn in Left Field. How many other teams would trade their left field for this one? ==> Gaping Hole
#2 Hitter Johnson – You don’t put people who can’t run at the top of your lineup (you try to figure out why). Only an incompetent GM seems to think this is some sort of a solution ==> Gaping Hole
#5 Hitter Granderson – Your number 5 hitter is supposed to protect your 3 & 4 hitters so other teams are forced to pitch to them. Knowing that any crappy lefthander can get Granderson out means he protects no one ==> Gaping Hole
Fifth Starter – Going to the Wishing Well one more to time to hope that Chamberlain or Hughes can finally get major league hitters out as a starter is not planning, its wishing and hoping. No bueno if you consider yourself a competent GM ==> Gaping Hole
Right Field – Swisher is an automatic out if the opposing pitcher can throw breaking pitches for strikes – he can’t hit them. However, he can recognize a breaking pitch and not swing at it. Therefore if a crappy pitcher can’t get his breaking pitch over, he’ll either walk Swisher or give in and throw a fastball, which Swisher can hammer. In the playoffs last year, Swisher was exposed because, guess what? playoff pitchers can get their breaking stuff over. ==> Gaping Hole for a Playoff Team
Using big words like iteration in this context make you sound conceited. You could have expressed that thought in simple and elegant language.
WOW ortforshort with all these gaping holes I guess the Yanks are now a (LOL) last place team according to you!…With all your insight I guess you must be a candidate for Cashmans job!