Another update for PECOTA
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Feb 14, 2010 
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Predicting a baseball season is tricky business, and the good folks at Baseball Prospectus never stop working to make their formulas better and more accurate. They’ve once again updated the PECOTA predictions for 2010.
You might remember that PECOTA initially predicted the Yankees in third place, then put them in a tie for first. The latest edition has the Yankees finishing second in the American League East, just behind the Red Sox. The newest prediction has the Yankees allowing fewer runs than in previous versions, but also scoring fewer runs (though still scoring the most in baseball).
I don’t put a ton of stock into these predictions, but I find them endlessly interesting.
Also, if you’re wondering why the Tigers — who seemed to be cutting payroll not so long ago — are suddenly in on Johnny Damon, it might be because they’ve figured out what PECOTA seems to have figured out: There isn’t a clear favorite in the American League Center, and a player like Damon could make a difference in winning that division.
Chad,
You forgot one Pecota prediction in which the Yankees finish in 1st with the Red Sox second. So now, they’ve reverse their predictions. Whatever! I never understood how such projections can change so often even when no further personnel moves are made by the clubs. It makes me think they’re not very confident in what they’re saying.
It says to me that they do not yet have a valid methodology. Me thinks that they should tinker more quietly lest they lose all credibility.
I like the white sox chances in the central, good staff and chances for rebound/healthy years for some of their good bats (rios, alexie ramirez, carlos quentin).
Makes me think their methodology is no better than mine. And I don’t have one!
Seriously, what it’s making me think is they have a favorite and are tinkering with the numbers until it comes out the way they think it should.
I’m supposing (because I really don’t feel like reading it) that they’re basing this on starting pitching?
Do they project injuries? Do they make assumptions like Dice-K will absolutely be better this year than last and AJ will definitely suffer an injury?
Might as well use a magic eight ball.
This nonsense is yet another example why some of this stuff is voodoo science and nothing more.
It has nothing to do with methodology. It has to do with marketing.
Pick the Yankees first, third or second, it really doesn’t matter. It’s about drawing attention to their system with all of these projections and they know how to do that well.
For numbers freaks, they live for this stuff. For the other 80-90% of the baseball fan base, it’s one big yawn.
P= PLAYER
E= Empirical
C= Comparison
O= Optimization
T= Test
A= Algorithm
What?
You still have to play the game on the field!
Unless I’m misremembering, the only change with the Yanks and Sox made since the last PECOTA was the addition of Randy Winn.
If they don’t let him play, do the Yanks finish in first again?
Magic eight ball is right.
Pecota – Smecota
My guess is probably as good as PECOTAs. Just gives us something else to talk about until pitchers and catchers report.
LOL @ the American League “Center”
thanks Chad! good morning all.
I kept some of the 09 predictions. Out of all of them, the only one who was close was Kevin Kennedy. He had the Rays in the WC instead of the red sox. I didn’t down write all his NL predictions, but he did have the Phillies going to the WS. There are so many variables, most of us could be just as accurate (or not)
I am sure nobody predicted the Rays going to the WS in 08
YAWN…
Can’t help but remember the last games the Yankees played against the WhtSox, and Ozzie’s quote to recap the Yankees winning the series.
“We got to see the new YANKEES STADIUM, which is nice. The hotel was good, and that’s all I have to say about the last few days.” priceless!
I don’t find these predictions interesting at all and it’s laughable that PECOTA keeps changing it’s mind. The idea that the Yankees were going to finish 3rd in the first place is laughable, so I can’t take them seriously anyway.
Happy Valentine’s Day everyone
I get it. PECOTA says it’s going to be a close race in the AL East.
I hope they didn’t spend a lot of money coming up with that one
Sounds like PECOTA has some global warming people on their staff. Like it will get cold before it gets warm, then maybe not. We change our data to meet our funding needs.
Statement from Gene Monahan:
“I miss not being around my professional family already, but I’m battling,” Monahan said in a statement released by the team. “The New York Yankees have gone above and beyond in this most difficult time. I couldn’t do this alone, but with the support and love of my immediate family, my family within our organization and the dedication and expertise of many fine doctors, I look forward to resuming my role with the team this season.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo.....z0fWohyzay
Here’s how I see the numbers:
I have zero interest in Pecota.
Last season in here, after one of our consecutive losses to Boston, I offered a virtual shrug and said we’d pull away in the second half and win the division by 7-8 games.
That remark was based on common sense; we had new guys not yet acclimated, team wasn’t yet a unit, we had stupid talent up and down the lineup, excellent starting pitching and a very promising bullpen. I was accused of dismissing Boston too easily and assured the division was going to “come down to the wire.”
Obviously, they play the games for a reason, but sometimes people get caught up in the very melodramatic minutia they rail against ESPN for, and they buy into it.
It was clear in even the early going that Boston was not strong enough to really challenge the Yankees, even as we were losing games to them. And no one seemed to notice until much later that they basically had no offense on the road. Yet they were going to challenge us “down to the wire.”
WHo needs bleepin Pecota? I have the same reaction to the people who sit around ballparks logging numbers for their UZR system. I don’t need UZ-bleeping-R to tell me whether a guy can track a baseball or not – especially when I see the same guys live all the time.
I suppose it’s fun for people to have these sort of 3rd party pseudo-scientists around so they can argue the merits – or not – of them, but the older I get the more limited and boring all this stuff becomes, even as it’s expanding into more and more esoteric data.
It’s a sport in itself – and you have to be interested in it as such. To me, baseball is a game I watch for pleasure and very seriously, too. I’d rather call my friends up and argue/debate on who should bat 2nd than read this superfluous stuff.
So they have them allowing less runs but still scoring the most runs in baseball but finishing second in the division..yea that makes sense.
Dave Eiland on the FAN yesterday. He talks about Vazquez, Joba, and Phil with some “restrictions” on him next season…
http://www.wfan.com/topic/play.....Id=4388231
I think any baseball prediction for a full season is just B-S,
Any way to see PECOTA’s past record?
It was pointed out to me that it is actually Happy Arod day. On this day 6 years ago the Yankees acquired Arod.
Tom, thanks for posting! I really don’t think Phil will have major restrictions – Cash said this early in the off-season and Eiland reiterated that basically. Speaking of, Joba sure does talk a lot…….I root for him because he’s a Yankee, but personality wise, he’s just not my cup of tea.
Happy Valentines Day to you too Erin
I saw that piece on Monahan. Geno’s been there forever and is a real prince of a guy from all accounts. A “significant illness” is not what you want to have; I will keep him in my thoughts.
Hiscross, I’m sorry but you shouldn’t speak abt global warming unless u have all the facts. Just about EVERY climatology expert in the world says that it is happening and we need to reduce our pollution to stop it. The weather where u live is not the same thing as the climate of the entire world. And yes global warming can cause more storms by increasing the amount of water vapor inthe air. More water equals more precipitation. Sorry to get political here but I couldn’t allow misinformation to go unchalenged.
what the so called experts are saying is if the everything goes in the rs favor,ortiz,drew,beltre,lackey,etc… & we struggle enough for them to win the division it could happen
we have the pitching with cc,burnett,pettitte,jv,etc to never get blown away not like when the rs temporarilly stole our thunder & even then we hung in there with no real ace
i remember last year when the rs were the team to beat,number 1 in the power rankings,the team that does everything right with a great farm system & in no time we took that label away from them & had cervelli,gardner,pena,robertson,coke from our farm system helping us win
you have to play the game between the lines
Re: PECOTA, here’s a joke I use with juries when I have scientific or expert witnesses against me:
A scientist is doing an experiment on a frog. He cuts off one leg and tells the frog to jump and it does. Scientist notes in his log that the frog jumped. Scientist cuts off the second leg, tells the frog to jump and it jumps. Scientist notes this. The scientist cuts off the third leg, tells the frog to jump and it does, and he makes a note.
The scientist cuts off the fourth leg, tells the frog to jump but it doesn’t. He tells it again, but the frog doesn’t move. Scientist writes in his log: “Frog with no legs deaf.”
Just because a scientist tells you something, doesn’t mean he’s come to the right conclusion. Common Sense still prevails.
I love it! Happy A-Rod day
Frank says: February 14th, 2010 at 9:27 am
Strangely, I’ve never seen CR9 say a bad word about one Johnny Damon, who, upon signing his first big contract, ditched his first wife and kids for the plastic bimbo he’s married to now.
—
Why is that strange? He left is first wife while with the Red Sox and married the “plastic bimbo” in 2004, coming off the high of a steroid aided World Series title.
He came to the Yankees and learned class, like so many before him.
You don’t have all the facts either, pal. Settle down.
And we don’t even have to send flowers or chocolate!
Chad:
It must getting close for you to start packing for the trip to Tampa.
When convenient, please post uniform numbers.
Not that this has anything to do with global warming but why do the winter olympics look like a balmy paradise compared to NYC.
I’m starting to think 30 degrees is warm.
LOL Very true!
in the 1970′s computer models told us we should prepare for global cooling
Our climate has always undergone changes
Greenland was named Greenland because its coasts used to be very green. It’s presumptuous to think humans’ impact matters so much in comparison to the frightening geologic history of the earth. And who is to say that last year’s temperature is the perfect optimum? Warmer may be better! More people die in cold waves than heat waves.
Earth’s temperature is 10 to 15°C cooler than it was 100 million years ago when there was no ice or human life on the planet.
our planet has always gone through temperature changes that we simply do not know enough about
anytime money is involved for funding a particular agenda i don’t trust it
as stated above 100 million years ago there was no ice on our planet & the earths temperature was warmer than it is now
The funny thing about all the global warming experts. Everybody knows that it is happening, but nobody knows why. The planet has been heating up and and cooling down since it’s creation. Is it a good idea to reduce pollution, of course. Is man causing this warming trend, who knows?
The Yankees better do something now because Pecota predicted a 2nd place finish, we cant let this happen… open up the wallet, HAL.
Exactly.
I never really understood why some folks rail against ESPN, SI, BP, BA, ect. as if it’s some sort of cosmological issue.
It’s Baseball, pure and simple. There may be more noise emanating from ephemeral, temporary opinion machines.
But if you listen closely, the game’s echos is where the truth lies.
Pecota predictions = climate predictions
ML says:
February 14th, 2010 at 11:49 am
Hiscross, I’m sorry but you shouldn’t speak abt global warming unless u have all the facts. Just about EVERY climatology expert in the world says that it is happening and we need to reduce our pollution to stop it. The weather where u live is not the same thing as the climate of the entire world. And yes global warming can cause more storms by increasing the amount of water vapor inthe air. More water equals more precipitation. Sorry to get political here but I couldn’t allow misinformation to go unchalenged.
————————————————————
Perhaps global warming is caused by people who feel the need to talk about anything and write/type it down and expend so much heat amd energy that it causes world temps to rise. If they can’t type, they generally spew hot gas about something.
Of course, this is just my own theory.
To all the wonderful and beautiful Ladies of The LoHud, Happy Valentine’s Day to you all……..A Red Roses for all……
Everytime I see these Pecota headlines I think of former player Bill Pecota who was a utility player for the KC Royals back in the early 90′s.
Funny Murph, although I hope there are no PETA members on your jury.
new post.
As for the changes to PECOTA, they keep reworking the formula based on past results. They’ve actually made some good calls in the past. Like I wrote in the post, I don’t put a whole lot into these predictions, but I think they’re interesting, I think there is some real intelligence behind them.
That’s who it was named for. Did you think it was a coincidence?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H.....ontroversy
Hopefully they’d be mad at the scientist, not me.
People, if you don’t know anything about something, the first rule is to avoid talking about it unless you’re a politician.
PECOTA’s primary purpose is to forecast individual player performance. There are many fewer unknowns (although obviously still a lot) for individual forecasts than team forecasts. Projecting final standings is a fun game but isn’t PECOTA’s real function.
People who project standings understand:
1. That many things can change between opening day and the last game of the season.
2. That their projections have incorporated many assumptions about playing time that may not turn out to be correct.
3. That players who historically have been healthy can get hurt, and historically fragile players can play the entire season, and that you can’t really predict when abnd where that happens.
4. That teams make trades.
5. That players emerge out of nowhere to have good seasons, and solid players sometimes take a powder.
6. That there’s a lot of randomness in life.
That said, in forecasting the 2005-2007 seasons, PECOTA’s standard error was about 4-5 wins. That includes the forecasting the Nats as well as the Yanks. I’d like to see any of us do as well using our “common sense”. PECOTA didn’t do as well in 2008 but other systems did. Remember, PECOTA is just one forecasting system out of many.
Anybody who gets their nose out of joint because some forecasting system doesn’t favor their favorite team needs something else to occupy their time.
And anyone who criticizes the PECOTA forecast who doesn’t have access to the individual player forecasts underlying the team forecasts is basically wasting their time.
Correction – It was the 2009 season PECOTA didn’t do that well in forecasting. In 2008 I believe it made one of the best forecasts.
I must take a gigantic brain to get within a 10 win span. How ever do they do it?
A wed wose, how womantic.
When they are right, they puff their chests. When they are wrong, they blame the “randomness of the season” or their “methodology”.
That doesn’t seem very scientific to me.
Spin from fans of it aside, it’s served for entertainment rather than informational purposes.
Wave -
Given the “educated guess-ness” that seems to be the nature of PECOTA, I still think it is something to take in stride. And even though they may crunch more numbers than the average fan, and their guess might be a scoosh closer, it’s no more valid.
I find it interesting that you say the main purpose of PECOTA is forecasting individual player performance. If that’s so, then they should just stick to that. I guess it is in putting all these individual performances (educated guesses in their own right) into a team’s performance (which would have even more variables, no?) that makes the standings projection even more of a guesstimate.
I bet the average fan comes just as close (if they don’t get all mushy about their own favorite team) as PECOTA most of the time, if they do even a cursory look at rosters.
They’ve made enough different predictions, that by now i think have hit just about every possibility, so like SJ 44 said, they’ll say they predicted it at the end of the year. It’s not even worth reporting their ridulous predictions.
If this, if that, and if those, then this might, however if all or none of the other ifs happen its a good bet this won’t. But if it does its been a good season for ifs.
Best post
Please, no more of this idiocy!
PECOTA is about as reliable as calling your local fortune teller
Actually, I believe in global warming. I just don’t believe it the way it has been spun. The Bible is very clear that in the end time (tribulation) God will burn the earth with fire. Also, keep in mind that before the flood the earth was warm 24/7 and it Never rained. People often grew to over 8 feet and lived well over 700+ years. Noah was over 700 years old when he built the Arch. So yes, I believe in global warming. I’m just glad I won’t be around when the tribulation does occur. I hope you aren’t around either.
Please stop using the word PREDICTING when referring to PECOTA.
It is a PROJECTION system.
When SJ44 accuses someone of “spin”, what he means is that he doesn’t agree with that person, but has no argument to back up his own positio.
“Noah was over 700 years old when he built the Arch.”
I always wondered where that big thing in St. Louis came from.
I come here to read about baseball, and the Yankees in specific, not to hear right-wing media talking points about climate change. It’s a real downer to have this sort of nonsense intruding on what should be an entertaining diversion.
Come to think of it, this is not a bad analogy. Everyone knows the global average temperatures are increasing, but whether it’s 2 degrees in 50 years or 6 degrees in 50 years is up for debate. Everyone knows the Yankees are going to win a lot of games, but whether it’s 94 or 104 is up for debate.
Either way, you have to play the game between the lines. But we can say for sure the climate’s warming and the Yankees are good.
St Louis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gateway_Arch
Noah Corrections: Genesis 7:6 “Noah was 600 years old when the flood came: Noah built an Ark – not Arch like I wrote.