Predicting a baseball season is tricky business, and the good folks at Baseball Prospectus never stop working to make their formulas better and more accurate. They’ve once again updated the PECOTA predictions for 2010.
You might remember that PECOTA initially predicted the Yankees in third place, then put them in a tie for first. The latest edition has the Yankees finishing second in the American League East, just behind the Red Sox. The newest prediction has the Yankees allowing fewer runs than in previous versions, but also scoring fewer runs (though still scoring the most in baseball).
I don’t put a ton of stock into these predictions, but I find them endlessly interesting.
Also, if you’re wondering why the Tigers — who seemed to be cutting payroll not so long ago — are suddenly in on Johnny Damon, it might be because they’ve figured out what PECOTA seems to have figured out: There isn’t a clear favorite in the American League Center, and a player like Damon could make a difference in winning that division.