The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Notes from Day 1

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Feb 17, 2010 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

There wasn’t much breaking news coming out of Steinbrenner Field this morning. The Yankees pitchers and catchers showed up, then some of them talked, then all of them left. For a first day of spring training, it was pretty much exactly what you would expect.

As for some smaller notes from the day, here’s one that is quite literally smaller.

Who’s in shape and who’s not always seems to be an early spring training question, and the only player I saw who was a noticeably different size was Jonathan Albaladejo, who said he lost 30 pounds this winter. “A lot of running,” he said.

For the first time since he turned pro, Albaladejo did not play winter ball in Puerto Rico. He instead focused on getting into shape. “I definitely feel more fresh,” he said. “My arm feels more life.”

• For now, Phil Hughes is only throwing fastballs and changeups in his bullpen sessions, and he expects to throw one more bullpen before he mixes in curveballs and cutters. He compared the development of his changeup to last year’s development of the cutter. “I’ll concentrate on it all spring,” he said. “Hopefully I’ll get it to a point where it’s a solid pitch for me. It just comes with repetition.”

• Along the left wall, the first group of lockers goes in this order: CC Sabathia, Joba Chamberlain, Javier Vazquez, Chad Gaudin, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. That’s a clearly defined section if I’ve ever seen one.

• One random locker assignment comes on the right side of the back wall: Nick Swisher, Marcus Thames, Randy Winn, Curtis Granderson, Reid Gorecki and Mark Teixeira. Poor Gorecki is going to be surrounded by writers every day without being asked a single question. Unless it’s a question about one of the guys sitting near him.

• Congratulations to Mark Melancon, who got married this winter. Also congratulations to Jason Hirsh, who had hardly said hello before he flipped open his phone to show me a picture of his newborn.

• Speaking of Hirsh, I still consider him one of the sleepers of big league camp, and he came up with a great line to explain his offseason conditioning. ”Functional training instead of meathead lifting,” he said. Nice.

• Jorge Posada said he watched that World Series highlight DVD this winter. I’m sure a lot of Yankees watched it, but Posada was the first I’ve heard talking about it. “I watched it and you can’t believe it,” he said. “It’s a lot of fun.”

• I doubt I’ll have any reason to write more than five words about D.J. Mitchell this winter, but I did get to meet him this morning. Really nice guy. He said he found out on Monday that the Yankees made him a late addition to big league camp. He drove from North Carolina to Tampa on Tuesday, and was in camp this morning. He’s a sinker baller who climbed from Low-A to High-A last season. The Yankees haven’t told him where they expect him to open this season.

 
 

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224 Responses to “Notes from Day 1”

  1. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 9:08 pm

    Doreen,

    That is why a statistic like wRC+ is great because it is on an easy to understand scale. 100 is average. Under 100 is below average. Over 100 is above average.

    Also I forgot to mention before that wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for league as well.

  2. blake February 17th, 2010 at 9:10 pm

    I think fastball, curveball, change, and cutter is a good combo of pitches for Phil.

  3. Nashville Jeff February 17th, 2010 at 9:10 pm

    Great first day of work down there Chad. Peter was great, but your depth of knowledge about the whole system has taken this blog to a new level. Special Thanks to you and Sam!

  4. Nashville Jeff February 17th, 2010 at 9:11 pm

    Phil will be an ace. There is no doubt. I am finally convinced that Joba will be better suited for the pen. Does he deserve one more shot at the rotation? Probably.

  5. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 9:19 pm

    Hughes doesn’t need to be in a rush to become an ace. I’ll settle for him and Chamberlain being a pair of kings. After all, two kings beat an ace.

  6. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 9:20 pm

    Great notes, Chad. Love this stuff.

  7. murphydog February 17th, 2010 at 9:21 pm

    Was typing when the new post hit. Didn’t see it, requesting permission to re-post from last:

    OK, so I bought Baseball Prospectus 2010. Some numbers:

    Gardner/Projected 2010:

    Breakout: 14% Improve: 44% Collapse: 10% Attrition: 9%

    434 Plate Appearances; 266 avg; 356 OBP; 378 SLG; 13.4 VORP; 1.5 WARP. His defense is projected at 98-CF 0, which according to BP means he’ll see 98 games in CF and save no runs more than the average CF with his glove.

    Comparables: Mookie Wilson, Kenny Lofton, Alex Sanchez, Joey Gathright (all when they were Gardner’s present age).

    In short, BP sees him as a sometime LF, with a valuable bench role.

  8. Phil the Thrill February 17th, 2010 at 9:30 pm

    Phil also throws a slider from time to time.

  9. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 9:32 pm

    Murph, if gardner could get close to what a Willie Wilson type had in his 2nd full season, everyone will be happy. Pretty much the same type of hitter and moreover, the same type of outfielder…using their great speed to make up for mistakes they make.

  10. Rich in NJ February 17th, 2010 at 9:32 pm

    If Hughes masters a change up, look out.

  11. Phil the Thrill February 17th, 2010 at 9:32 pm

    wRC+ is a great measure. It weights OBP/SLG correctly, OPS+ doesn’t.

  12. Rich in NJ February 17th, 2010 at 9:33 pm

    “434 Plate Appearances; 266 avg; 356 OBP; 378 SLG; 13.4 VORP; 1.5 WARP. His defense is projected at 98-CF 0, which according to BP means he’ll see 98 games in CF and save no runs more than the average CF with his glove.”

    If Gardner puts up a .356 OBP and a .378 SLG, he will virtually match the production of an AL league average CF in 2009 (.734 OPS v. .732 OPS).

  13. Bronx Jeers February 17th, 2010 at 9:44 pm

    The agony of defeat just reared it’s ugly head in this women’s downhill huh?

  14. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 9:45 pm

    I just finished reading a pretty good explanation of the various offensive stats on Pinstripe Alley.

    http://www.pinstripealley.com/.....tle-of-the

    A couple of thoughts: The mission is to find one number that will convey everything a player is able to do offensively. That’s what it looks like to me.

    Which explains why a lot of people don’t see a need for it – there are people who are perfectly happy looking at several numbers to tell the story.

    The other thought: Where does the 100 as average come from? In the formula for wRC+, where do the multiplying numbers come from? I mean, for example, by is NIBB multiplied by 0.72?

    The stat itself, yes, easily comparable from one player to another, as much as one can be. But when someone asks you how do you arrive at the number, then it’s not easy. It’s like someone’s senior thesis in applied statistics. :)

  15. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 9:45 pm

    “The agony of defeat just reared it’s ugly head in this women’s downhill huh?”

    Well, a few hours ago, but yeah, I just saw it too.

    200 feet in the air… yikes.

  16. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 9:46 pm

    Bronx Jeers -

    That was an awful spill, wasn’t it?

  17. Erica - always OPPC February 17th, 2010 at 9:51 pm

    I would give someone $5 right now to make my lunch for me for tomorrow

    I made the mistake of sitting down before I did the usual prep.

    And going out for lunch is not an option!! GRRRR

  18. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 9:54 pm

    Doreen, have you seen Bryant Gumbel’s story on HBO with the ’83 Gold Medal winner in the Alpine with Bill Johnson? It’s a must see. Really a sad story of the trouble making kid that made good, and only to have it all end in a crash on the slopes.

  19. Bronx Jeers February 17th, 2010 at 9:55 pm

    Yeah tape delay is not good. I’m watching Vonn fly and getting excited then suddenly I remember, I already know the outcome.

    Doreen,

    Yeah I think that fall freaked out that German skier going next. She seemed to be skiing timidly.

  20. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 9:56 pm

    Doreen,

    It is absolutely not necessary to use this stuff to enjoy baseball.

    However IMO and many others they are absolutely invaluable when evaluation individual players and comparing them. We have been doing this all offseason. Just talking about individuals.

    The aim of many of these statistics is to determine what an individual is good/bad at. To do this you have to determine what is in his personal control. It is unfair to judge a players ability based on things outside their control.

    Wins for example are a bogus statistic. You as a pitcher are relying on so many things and so many people to get that win. When evaluating Tim Lincecum why do I want to know what essentially his teammates did well? He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball with the best stuff, most talent, etc. but he only had 15 wins last year. Those wins tell you nothing about how good he is and show how bad of a measurement wins are of a pitcher’s ability. ERA is incredibly flawed as well. Sure it takes into account errors, but we have learned with the recent emphasis in MLB on defense really how much defense matters. We have seen how many runs a good defensive team can save. Why punish a pitcher for having poor defenders behind him like ERA does?

    FIP on the other hand tries to limit its evaluation only to what the pitcher can control. It takes out all the context, his teammates, etc. It just tells you what Tim Lincecum himself did.

    RBIs are another bogus statistics because they are almost completely context driven. It does not tell you how good a hitter is. It relies so much on where you hit in the order, the team you play for, your luck to come up in a spot with men on base etc. Statistics like wRC+ take as much of the background out as possible and tell you exactly what Alex Rodriguez is good at. It does not factor in what Derek Jeter is good at when evaluating Alex Rodriguez like RBIs do.

    These statistics try to take it one step further and quantify the numbers so you know exactly how players compare.

    The problem with using scouting or the “eye test” alone is that it can never tell you exactly how good Player A is at X, Y, and Z. And it cannot tell you exactly how good Player A is at X, Y, and Z in comparison to any other player at his position, league, division, and in all of baseball. Those precise measurements and comparisons are incredibly important.

  21. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 9:57 pm

    ’83 Gold Medal

    ————————————————————

    ’84 Olympics

  22. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 9:57 pm

    GB7 -

    I don’t think I’ve seen it. Was he the one who was the skier they showed in that WWofS shot?

  23. murphydog February 17th, 2010 at 9:59 pm

    Looks like Brett is the topic with the staying power for now, until Damon signs or Jetes discusses his contract, whichever comes first. Unless it’s Mo’s first hiccup, Joba’s ego and “belly,” A-Rod’s continued personality rehabilitation and A-List dating, Girardi’s contract, “Phil Yoooouse is a starting pitcher,” Posada’s aging knees, arm and shoulder, Cervelli’s light hitting, Winn’s light hitting, Nick Johnson’s refrigerator-like quickness on the basepaths, Teixeira’s early season slump, AJ’s lack of consistency, CC’s cold weather slump, Vazquez’ penchant for giving up runs in high leverage situations, Granderson’s inability to hit lefties, Swisher’s hair, Cano’s refusal to take pitches, Pettitte’s elbow…

    Welcome back my friend to the show that never ends.

  24. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 10:02 pm

    Not sure about that, Doreen. It was an ugly, ugly crash. His 1 year old son had fallen into the hot tub and drowned in ’92 and just fell apart. In 2001, he was trying to make a comeback and then crashed. Bit off part of his tongue and suffered severe brain damage and now lives along most of the time. He has no memory of the last 15 years.

  25. ... February 17th, 2010 at 10:05 pm

    100 as average comes from normalizing around the league average, and then multiplying by 100 to express it as a %.

  26. Bronx Jeers February 17th, 2010 at 10:09 pm

    Here’s the famous Hermann Maier crash from 98′.

    Luckily he walked away and later famously said “I flew 30 feet in the air, it was a good flight but it was not as good as Lufthansa”

    Then he went on to win 2 gold medals.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related

  27. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 10:09 pm

    lgy – I believe in the vslue of advanced metrics and believe they are a BETTER indicator of performance, but I’ve yet to give up the ghost on what I consider “narrative” stats, particularly wins.

    I haven’t yet been convinced (though I’m not unwilling to do so) that there is no such thing as pitching to the scoreboard.

  28. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 10:14 pm

    Let’s Go Yankees -

    I’m not sure I would agree that the precise measurements are incredibly important – at least not unless you’re trying to value a player financially (in real life or for the purpose of winning a fantasy baseball league – :) ).

    But, I do agree some basic stats don’t tell you everything about a player.

    A problem that I see is trying to isolate accomplishments in a game that is pretty fluid. And what ARod does is somewhat dependent upon what the hitters in front of him or behind him do – why else would there have been discussion about whether there is someone in this season’s lineup who can “protect” ARod.

    The game isn’t static (stand-still), yet statistics try to take these stop-action pictures of the action. (Which I’m not implying is a bad thing.)

    Interestingly to me, I more understand the value of trying to isolate what a pitcher is able to do. But even there – can you ever really know how many wins Lincecum would have had had he been pitching for the picture-perfect team (above average offense for run support, and above average defense for run prevention)?

    Just watching once won’t tell you a lot. But watching over time, I believe the human brain catalogs information. Certainly writing things down is more reliable than memory, plus it’s easier to communicate. But you can learn a lot by watching with purpose. Really, that’s the first building block in putting together the wealth of statistics.

    Of course if you’re putting together a major league team, you want the best picture you can get, and that would be putting together what people see and what they’ve seen over time which is recorded and processed data.

  29. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 17th, 2010 at 10:15 pm

    Thanks for the update, Chad!

    I’ve basically given up on Alby, but I guess we’ll see if he can be at all useful.

    I truly believe Phil will get that change down so that it IS solid for him. He also has a terrific curve when it’s on, so hopefully he can gain more consistency with that.

  30. m February 17th, 2010 at 10:16 pm

    Chad,

    Thanks for the notes. Hope you enjoyed your first day in camp. Hold on to your hat, A-rod & Jeter’s first day with the media is an exciting ride!

  31. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 17th, 2010 at 10:16 pm

    Chad, do you have any ideas as to how they pick lockers? Does it mean anything that CC is near Joba and Phil near AJ and Andy?

  32. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 10:18 pm

    stuckey -

    I have heard/read pitchers saying that they pitch to the scoreboard.

    It actually sounds like a reasonable thing for some pitchers to do.

  33. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 10:19 pm

    GB7 -

    That’s an awful, awful thing to have lived through. I guess it’s a blessing that he has no memory of it – or I’m assuming he has no memory of it if he has no memory of the last 15 years. Sad.

  34. Bronx Jeers February 17th, 2010 at 10:23 pm

    lets go,

    I appreciate what you’re trying to do here and I’ll admit I learned something with your explanation of wRC+ and how it differs from OPS+. You did a good job of explaining it.

    But man did you lay some doozies in that last one.

  35. Nick in SF February 17th, 2010 at 10:23 pm

    Only real starters can suit up near CC, at least historically.

    Here’s the Wide World of Sports intro from 1977:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNqps7GN7CA

  36. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 10:24 pm

    Doreen, some of the more militant advanced metric folks completely reject the concept, much in the same way some believe there is no such thing as “clutch”.

  37. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 10:24 pm

    stuckey,

    There have been a number of studies and articles that debunk the pitching to the score thing. Why in the world as a pitcher would you give up runs? Jack Morris has become the poster boy for this and if you just google pitching to the score you will see countless articles showing that Jack Morris did not pitch to the score and has no business in the HOF.

    If you do not really want to get into all the numbers and data about pitching to the score the article below by Joe Posnanski is actually really entertaining, funny, and good read. He also basically lays out my position on the subject.

    http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlo.....the-score/

  38. m February 17th, 2010 at 10:25 pm

    All this talk of pitching to the scoreboard reminds me of the Wang/Jeter ritual.

    Jeter would ask Wanger, “How many you need today?”

    And Wang would jokingly tell him how many runs he needed.

    :cry:

  39. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 10:28 pm

    “OK, so I bought Baseball Prospectus 2010.”

    murphydog-

    oh man, you’re just going to encourage them.

    if Baseball Prospectus didn’t exist, it wouldn’t change baseball one bit.

    i mean , name one change in how baseball is played on the field because of Baseball Prospectus.

    it’s such a waste of all that brain power.

    think of all the good in the world they could do if they actually did something useful with their mathematical abilities.

  40. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 10:30 pm

    Just to add one thing to Posanski’s article on more of an individual level.

    Today, the difference between a 3.4 ERA, 3.6 ERA, 3.8 ERA, 4.0 ERA, etc. can mean the difference between millions of dollars, fame, recognition, etc.

    Who is crazy enough to “pitch to the score” and risk that much?

  41. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 10:32 pm

    As long as human beings play the game on the field, there will be a human element, whether the more devoted sabre people like it or not. :)

    If a pitcher can “turn it on” knowing he’s pitching against the other team’s ace, or if he’s engaged in a real pitcher’s duel; why not the opposite? Why wouldn’t the mindset exist to conserve energy, basically, if you’ve got a very big lead? I doubt it happens all the time, and even in the first scenario, having the mindset may not guarantee success, but I definitely think a pitcher can take that kind of control.

    Now, why would a pitcher give up runs? Not on purpose, but he would know he didn’t have to be perfect to win. In a time when wins were the most revered stat, runs wouldn’t matter. But, in this day and age, with free agency and what I imagine can be a pretty nickle-and-dime contract process taking every possible statistic into account, it is a fair question to ask.

  42. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 10:36 pm

    Doreen
    February 17th, 2010 at 10:19 pm
    GB7 -

    That’s an awful, awful thing to have lived through. I guess it’s a blessing that he has no memory of it – or I’m assuming he has no memory of it if he has no memory of the last 15 years. Sad.

    ————————————————————

    It’s got to be tough. He doesn’t remember that he’s been divored for years. He knows he has two kids but, doesn’t remember them growing up. He tapes up notes on the mirrors to remind him to take his showers, brush his teeth…even one to remember where the liquor bottle is. It’s got to be like waking up everyday and not knowing where you are or who you are. The ultimate of the walking dead.

  43. Rich in NJ February 17th, 2010 at 10:37 pm

    m

    “Jeter would ask Wanger, “How many you need today?”

    And Wang would jokingly tell him how many runs he needed.”

    Given the way Wang pitched v. the RS, that conversation must have taken a little longer. ;)

  44. pat February 17th, 2010 at 10:37 pm

    Was there any mention anywhere of Mo and Andy showing up today?

  45. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 10:38 pm

    Doreen, I absolutely agree that a pitcher can at times get locked into the moment or get complacent with a lead.

    However, many Jack Morris supporters like Al Leiter believe these pitchers do these things on purpose.

    The point is that when you have a large enough sample size especially a whole career like Jack Morris this once in a while occurrences of taking it to the next level in a close game or cruising along in a blowout after a night of partying in effect weed themselves out.

  46. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 10:40 pm

    “But man did you lay some doozies in that last one.”

    ——————-

    Haha. Care to elaborate?

  47. Chad Jennings February 17th, 2010 at 10:41 pm

    Not sure how they pick the lockers, but I wouldn’t read anything at all into Phil being closr to Andy and Joba being closer to CC. All of those lockers are very close to one another. It’s all one group.

  48. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 17th, 2010 at 10:43 pm

    Thanks, Chad!

  49. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 10:43 pm

    lgy – As I say, I’m not set in my position. That said I could care less about Jack Morris’ HoF credentials (or anyone’s for that matter).

    And I think suggesting anyone gives us runs on purpose is somewhat misleading. But let me read the article before commenting further.

  50. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 10:43 pm

    Sorry, but, I’ll take the bum that knocks in 120 “bogus” runs and scores another 120 or a pitcher with 20+ “bogus” wins over a guy with the pretty formulas and a 6-15 record that “shows” how great but unlucky he is.

  51. Chad Jennings February 17th, 2010 at 10:44 pm

    Pat,
    I didn’t see Mariano, but Andy was certainly there.

  52. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 10:45 pm

    Read the article, LGY.

    I was operating under a somewhat different definition – more confined- blowout games/tight games.

    I don’t know near enough about Morris and his career to make any judgments on that issue! :)

  53. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 10:46 pm

    I’m sure that Burnette and the other starters like Sabathia and Chamberlain are still walking around in a fog trying to find Jose Molina.

  54. m February 17th, 2010 at 10:48 pm

    I would think that the clubhouse manager (is it the same guy as the regular season one?) would do it, taking special requests into consideration (like a young guy asking if he could be next to a particular vet). And probably the manager takes a look at the “seating arrangement” before assigning the lockers.

    Anyway, like Chad said, they’re all close to each other. Besides they’re all satellites in CC’s orbit.

  55. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 17th, 2010 at 10:49 pm

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02.....nkees.html

  56. pat February 17th, 2010 at 10:49 pm

    Thanks Chad.

    Some guys seem to fly under the radar so much I wonder if they are around.

  57. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 10:51 pm

    “if Baseball Prospectus didn’t exist, it wouldn’t change baseball one bit.”

    I have to admit there is some entertainment value in seeing strut and completely miss the point at the same time.

    The point isn’t to change the game. Its to evaluate the abilities of the people who play it.

    Those aren’t nearly the same thing, which is a concept you fail to understand.

  58. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 10:52 pm

    I would think that the clubhouse manager would be the Tampa yankees guy with his staff as opposed to bringing in the Yankee staff. Perhaps Randy or Pat M could say, or, one of the head bloggerites.

  59. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 10:53 pm

    “I’m sure that Burnette and the other starters like Sabathia and Chamberlain are still walking around in a fog trying to find Jose Molina.”

    That isn’t fog. That’s the glare of Jorge Posada’s 5 rings.

  60. ray (sox fan) February 17th, 2010 at 10:54 pm

    I can’t believe it!!

    Dice-K is already saying he has a tired back.

    Time to confess you guys…..which one of you enrolled Dice-K into the Carl Pavano school of pitching???

    GB…..this looks like something you would do! :)

  61. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 10:55 pm

    Gotta say, not much of a follower of extreme sports, but Shaun White seems like a pretty respectable guy and someone I wouldn’t mind my teenager looking up to were I to have one.

  62. Nick in SF February 17th, 2010 at 10:55 pm

    Phil probably wants to be close to the guys whose games he’ll be pitching in the most?

    This is like Kremlinology. ;)

  63. Benny Blanco February 17th, 2010 at 10:56 pm

    GreenBeret7
    February 17th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
    I’m sure that Burnette and the other starters like Sabathia and Chamberlain are still walking around in a fog trying to find Jose Molina.
    ============================================================LMAOL!!!

  64. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 10:56 pm

    of course pitchers pitch to the situation.

    say a runner is on third with two outs and and is the potential winning run in the bottom of the ninth.

    the pitcher will risk a walk to the hitter by pitching very carefully and not giving him anything good to hit.
    the pitcher does not want that run to score.

    … but with a runner on third with two outs in the bottom of the ninth when there is a two run lead the pitcher doesn’t care about the run. he wants to get an out . he doesn’t want to give up a tying home run, but he’s also not going to take a chance on walking the guy and putting the tying run on base( unless someone like alex is up).

    he will throw more strikes in the second situation than the first.
    that’s pitching to the score.

    of course pitchers pitch to the situation.

    why would anyone think they didn’t?

  65. m February 17th, 2010 at 10:57 pm

    Rich,

    Play nice!

    pat,

    When there are no mitchell reports or contract negotiations or shoulder surgeries, that’s how it is.

  66. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 17th, 2010 at 10:57 pm

    LOL GB….

  67. m February 17th, 2010 at 10:59 pm

    ray,

    We bought the complete set of Red Sox Rotation Voodoo Dolls.

    We can’t reveal who’s next.

  68. ray (sox fan) February 17th, 2010 at 11:02 pm

    M,

    That is harsh even by your standards!!!

    Just kidding.

  69. m February 17th, 2010 at 11:04 pm

    ray,

    Just kidding. Wouldn’t want to get bachi.

    Seriously, though. The Sox are trying to say he hurt himself at the Arizona Performance Center? The same place they made him go to? Sounds like it happened in Florida. Although, Daisuke could’ve been hiding it for some time now. :P

  70. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 11:05 pm

    GreenBeret7
    February 17th, 2010 at 10:43 pm

    Sorry, but, I’ll take the bum that knocks in 120 “bogus” runs and scores another 120 or a pitcher with 20+ “bogus” wins over a guy with the pretty formulas and a 6-15 record that “shows” how great but unlucky he is.

    —————————

    You are either not understanding or refusing to understand the argument or logic here.

    It would take you days to find and you possibly never would a pitcher 6-15 yet has a great FIP. No team is that bad defensively that you are going to be that great of a pitcher yet somehow give up so many runs that you end up 6-15.

    For example from 2009, the problem comes in with guys like Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, and Jarrod Washburn.

    Wins: Lincecum and Greinke were widely regarded as the best pitchers in baseball last year, yet they only won a combined 31 games. Is Chien Ming Wang and his 38 wins in 2006-2007, 7 games better than Lincecum and Grienke of 2009? No. Not even close. Lincecum and Grienke of 2009 blow Wang away of 2006 and 2007.

    ERA: In July of 2009, Jarrod Washburn went 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA. 1.44! He was seemingly pitching incredible and the Tigers decided to trade for him. He then proceeds to go the Tigers and sucks.

    In July of 2009, his FIP was 3.74. That is a HUGE difference from 1.44. Jarrod Washburn looked incredible in July because he had freaking Franklin Guttirez and Ichiro tracking down every flyball in the universe. He did not look incredible because he was pitching incredibly.

  71. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:05 pm

    ray (sox fan)
    February 17th, 2010 at 10:54 pm
    I can’t believe it!!

    Dice-K is already saying he has a tired back.

    Time to confess you guys…..which one of you enrolled Dice-K into the Carl Pavano school of pitching???

    GB…..this looks like something you would do!

    ————————————————————

    Yeah, that’s it…blame the new kid.

    Evening Ray. How have you and the (sox fan) family been? Have you been able to get yaz unstuck from the pump handle by the well, yet. I suggest that you use about 100 degree water. Not to hot. And, for God’s sake, don’t just try pulling him loose. He might bite you after he heals.

  72. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 11:05 pm

    “Those aren’t nearly the same thing, which is a concept you fail to understand.”

    stuckey-

    just curious, are you smart enough to know if i fail to understand a concept or not?

  73. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 11:07 pm

    WOW huge typo there! ****blow away Wang*****

  74. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 11:07 pm

    Betsy -

    Thanks for the link to that article. Very upbeat. Positive. Yay!

  75. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 11:09 pm

    “The point isn’t to change the game. Its to evaluate the abilities of the people who play it.”

    if it doesn’t change the game , then what good is it?

    when the players compete against each other, the results are the evaluation of their abilities.

  76. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 11:10 pm

    randy l.
    February 17th, 2010 at 10:56 pm

    of course pitchers pitch to the situation.

    ————————

    Leave it to randy to take an argument and completely and utterly mis-characterize it.

    I would like you to hit control F on your keyboard and see if anyone on this thread (other than murphydog in a different context) have even used the word “situation.”

    Pitching to the situation and pitching to the score are incredibly different things.

  77. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:11 pm

    lets go yankees
    February 17th, 2010 at 11:05 pm
    GreenBeret7
    February 17th, 2010 at 10:43 pm

    Sorry, but, I’ll take the bum that knocks in 120 “bogus” runs and scores another 120 or a pitcher with 20+ “bogus” wins over a guy with the pretty formulas and a 6-15 record that “shows” how great but unlucky he is.

    —————————

    You are either not understanding or refusing to understand the argument or logic here.

    It would take you days to find and you possibly never would a pitcher 6-15 yet has a great FIP. No team is that bad defensively that you are going to be that great of a pitcher yet somehow give up so many runs that you end up 6-15.

    ————————————————————

    Really? Go back and look at Nolan Ryan in 1987 or two years ago and look at Matt Cain in ’07 and ’08. Ryan led the league in ERA and strikeouts with a 8-16 record.

  78. pat February 17th, 2010 at 11:12 pm

    Miking snowboarders may not have been a good decision.

  79. pat February 17th, 2010 at 11:14 pm

    “of course pitchers pitch to the situation.”

    When I read that, I could hear Cone and Leiter in my head saying “he’s proud of his fastball to his own detriment” and it always seemed to be a young pitcher they were saying it about.

    Difference in being able to throw and learning how to pitch I presume?

  80. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 11:15 pm

    “I would like you to hit control F on your keyboard and see if anyone on this thread (other than murphydog in a different context) have even used the word “situation.””

    let’s go yankees-

    that doesn’t work on a mac.
    it’s command F.

    you know, for someone who thinks they know everything, you make a lot of mistakes.

  81. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 11:16 pm

    “Really? Go back and look at Nolan Ryan in 1987 or two years ago and look at Matt Cain in ‘07 and ‘08. Ryan led the league in ERA and strikeouts with a 8-16 record.”

    ——————-

    Ok, so I was wrong about how long it would take to find those guys.

    All you just did is further prove the point that wins are bogus.

  82. ray (sox fan) February 17th, 2010 at 11:17 pm

    “Yeah, that’s it…blame the new kid.”

    GB….the new kid????

    I just spilled my beer on my laptop with that statement!!

    Anyways, I am doing good. Thank you for asking.

    Looking forward to the season, just not sure that my Sox are going to have enough offense.

  83. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:18 pm

    pat
    February 17th, 2010 at 11:12 pm
    Miking snowboarders may not have been a good decision.

    ————————————————————

    Imagine baseball putting a mic on Earl Weaver, Billy Martin or Lou Pinella?

  84. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:20 pm

    lets go yankees
    February 17th, 2010 at 11:16 pm
    “Really? Go back and look at Nolan Ryan in 1987 or two years ago and look at Matt Cain in ‘07 and ‘08. Ryan led the league in ERA and strikeouts with a 8-16 record.”

    ——————-

    Ok, so I was wrong about how long it would take to find those guys.

    All you just did is further prove the point that wins are bogus.

    ————————————————————

    try winning a WS without runs batted in and wins.

  85. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 11:22 pm

    “Pitching to the situation and pitching to the score are incredibly different things.”

    let’s go yankees-

    incredibly different ?

    how so?

    can you give an example of each and how they are different?

  86. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:23 pm

    ray (sox fan)
    February 17th, 2010 at 11:17 pm
    “Yeah, that’s it…blame the new kid.”

    GB….the new kid????

    I just spilled my beer on my laptop with that statement!!

    Anyways, I am doing good. Thank you for asking.

    Looking forward to the season, just not sure that my Sox are going to have enough offense.

    ————————————————————

    LMAO. Sorry, Ray. It looked pretty good when I typed it. Glad to hear ya’ll are doing well.

    Man, this has been a long off season, especially after a WORLD SERIES WIN BY THE NEW YORK YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  87. Bronx Jeers February 17th, 2010 at 11:24 pm

    lets go,

    Well I really don’t want to get into it too deeply but I guess I forced it on myself.

    I do agree with you on the pitching and the value of FIP and why Grienke/Lincecum should have won the CYA regardless of wins. I realize ERA is not perfect but I think it’s good enough to tell you who’s doing what.

    Really I’m not as anti-sabremetric as I may come off.

    But when you say “The problem with using scouting or the “eye test” alone is that it can never tell you exactly how good Player A is at X, Y, and Z.”

    Well, it does sound like you’re saying you can’t tell how good a player is by watching him play. And that’s a bit ridiculous and may be at the heart of what anti-sabre people dislike abut advanced metrics.

    Maybe I’m not interpreting you correctly. And I’m not including what you say next albeit I could say yes, you cannot compare players unless of course you also see the other player play as well. Which is not impossible by the way.

    But it’s the RBI’s are a bogus stat that really bugs me. I just love RBI’s.

    Yes, people must be on base. We all know this.

    But what RBI’s tell me are that the player that’s getting them? is doing what is absolutely necessary in order to for his team to win games. And that is putting points on the board. Scoring runs means winning games. It’s kind of the whole point.

    I also believe most GM’s agree with me on this. They love those RBI guys.

    They’re usually paid quite handsomely as well.

    Again, I don’t want to seem that I categorically deny the significance of these advanced metrics. That’s not the case at all. I just want to point out that you shouldn’t categorically rule out that these metrics can lose sight of the bigger picture.

  88. Rich on the 6 train February 17th, 2010 at 11:26 pm

    What truth is there to Chan Ho Park being pursued? That would probably mean Gaudin gone.

  89. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 11:27 pm

    “just curious, are you smart enough to know if i fail to understand a concept or not?”

    Yes.

    “if it doesn’t change the game , then what good is it?”

    I usually hate to answer a question with a question, but do you genuinely fail to see the value in metrics to evaluate the performance of players in a competitive sport where you not only have to assemble a roster that gives you a competitive edge over others team’s rosters, but pay these players millions of dollars as well?

    “when the players compete against each other, the results are the evaluation of their abilities.”

    No, the results are the PRODUCT of their abilities.

    Assembling a roster with the best sum and combination of abilities is worthwhile, within the parameters of a budget is what advanced metrics serve as an evaluation tool for.

  90. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 11:27 pm

    Lets dream up a little scenario here using your Nolan Ryan reference.

    The 1987 season has concluded. Brian Cashman, the GM of the NYY is sitting at his desk as FA is about to begin. Rick Sutcliffe and Nolan Ryan are FA.

    Sutcliffe got the most votes for a starting pitcher in the NL Cy Young race. He finished with an 18-10 record, 3.68 ERA, and a 4.11 FIP.

    Ryan finished in 5th place in the NL Cy Young race. He had an 8-16 record, 2.76 ERA, and a 2.47 FIP.

    Who are you signing?

  91. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 11:27 pm

    gb7-

    from reading back on the blog, i don’t think stuckey and let’s go yankees think we’re very smart.

    are your feelings hurt as much as mine?

  92. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 11:29 pm

    Sometimes simple is better. Simple is enough.

  93. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:33 pm

    randy l.
    February 17th, 2010 at 11:27 pm
    gb7-

    from reading back on the blog, i don’t think stuckey and let’s go yankees think we’re very smart.

    are your feelings hurt as much as mine?

    ————————————————————

    Excuse me while I blow my nose and wipe the tears from my eyes, Randy.

    snerk…snort…honk.

    Yes, I my feelings are crushed. How will I ever survive?

  94. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 11:33 pm

    “try winning a WS without runs batted in and wins.”

    This is perhaps the most obtuse response in the history of this forum, and incredibly, I don’t think intentionally obtuse.

    The context of the statement was in evaluating the performance of a pitcher.

    Your reply has NOTHING whatsoever to do with that.

  95. Bo knows February 17th, 2010 at 11:34 pm

    His defense is projected at 98-CF 0, which according to BP means he’ll see 98 games in CF and save no runs more than the average CF with his glove.

    ——————————-
    This is what drives me crazy reading projections. Gardner has plus, plus speed compared to average. So he should get to more balls than average. So far he has been rated above average defensively. He should improve some with experience. So how does BP project him as zero defensively in 98 games. What is their rationale? So if I find that stat hard to believe, why should I believe the rest?

  96. Rich in NJ February 17th, 2010 at 11:34 pm

    Sometimes it’s more fun to watch (or in this case read).

  97. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:35 pm

    Bad example, because I wouldn’t want Sutcliffe on my team regardless of what he did. He was a jerk even back then.

  98. Nick in SF February 17th, 2010 at 11:35 pm

    AJ Burnett only won 13 games and didn’t bat in any runs at all but he won a WS. :)

  99. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 11:35 pm

    “But when you say “The problem with using scouting or the “eye test” alone is that it can never tell you exactly how good Player A is at X, Y, and Z.”

    Well, it does sound like you’re saying you can’t tell how good a player is by watching him play. And that’s a bit ridiculous and may be at the heart of what anti-sabre people dislike abut advanced metrics.”

    ———————————

    I am saying that only watching a player play you can not tell exactly how good he is and exactly how he compares to other players.

    You can watch Mark Teixeira and determine what he is good at and that he is a great baseball player. You can watch Alex Rodriguez and tell what he is good at and that he is a great baseball player.

    What you cannot do by just watching, is figure out precisely how good A-Rod is getting on base, hitting for power, etc. You cannot not precisely determine just how much better A-Rod is at getting on base, hitting for power, etc. than Tex.

    Those precise differences and exact measurements are incredibly important especially when they mean the difference between millions and millions of dollars.

  100. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 11:36 pm

    “just curious, are you smart enough to know if i fail to understand a concept or not?” randy l.

    “Yes.”- stuckey

    see stuckey, that’s where we may have a little bit of a difference of opinion.

    i’ve found that really intelligent people question themselves and challenge their own ideas a lot more than you seem to do.

    are you sure you’re really as smart as you think you are?

  101. lets go yankees February 17th, 2010 at 11:40 pm

    GreenBeret7
    February 17th, 2010 at 11:35 pm

    Bad example, because I wouldn’t want Sutcliffe on my team regardless of what he did. He was a jerk even back then.

    ————————–

    Come on…

    Is Dave Stewart ok?

    20-13, 3.68 ERA, 3.77 FIP

    The only problem with using Stewart is that he pitched 50 more innings than Ryan that year which is very valuable, but just leaving the innings aside…

  102. stuckey February 17th, 2010 at 11:42 pm

    “i’ve found that really intelligent people question themselves and challenge their own ideas a lot more than you seem to do.”

    And your experience in this matter is how deep exactly?

    “are you sure you’re really as smart as you think you are?”

    I never said I was smart. I responded to your question that I was smart enough to know that you fail to understand a concept.

    Those aren’t the same things.

    I don’t think you understand that either.

  103. Bo knows February 17th, 2010 at 11:42 pm

    Randy with his two step. Leading statement, predicted response, thwack.

    It’s really not fair being able to script predicted responses.

    There should be some variations thrown in by the responder.

    Mind you, they do leap to the bait, don’t they?

  104. Bronx Jeers February 17th, 2010 at 11:46 pm

    “Sometimes simple is better. Simple is enough.”

    Yes!

    Doreen,

    One of the things I do happen to dislike about these metrics is that seem to work against the “mythology” of baseball. Which is something I hold dear.

    I never talk about these stats outside of this blog. Never. It just doesn’t interest me that much when compared to talking about the game itself. The anecdotal aspect of baseball is what provides the richness that makes it “our national pastime” Sometimes I fear we’re losing that.

    Honestly I’d much rather hear these “geezers” tell their yarns. I love it.

  105. GreenBeret7 February 17th, 2010 at 11:50 pm

    Geezer Pat M and Geezer Randy are full of it.

    Yarns, I mean.

  106. raymagnetic February 17th, 2010 at 11:51 pm

    “Wins for example are a bogus statistic. You as a pitcher are relying on so many things and so many people to get that win. When evaluating Tim Lincecum why do I want to know what essentially his teammates did well? He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball with the best stuff, most talent, etc. but he only had 15 wins last year.”

    Please stop it now. Wins aren’t a bogus stat at all. A pitcher wins 300 games then he’s good. He’s one of the best pitchers to ever play the game. I don’t need any advance baseball stats to tell me that.

    To say wins are a bogus stat is just complete NONSENSE and too much relying on advanced baseball stats.

    That’s why a lot of average fans dislike the whole sabermetric thing, because of statements like that.

    A pitcher wins 20 something games a year, I can assure you that he’s doing something right and he’s a pretty darn good pitcher.

  107. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 11:53 pm

    The point that is being missed by the sabre-inclined is that that level of precision is not necessary here.

    Not even in discussing whether Gardner or Cabrera is a better player.

    It may be of utmost importance to Cashman and Girardi when they put together a team, and to a lesser extent in a game to game basis.

    But telling people they can’t discuss the merits of players and teams without using those advanced statistic here is just putting people off and making discussions more contentious than they need to be.

    LGY -

    Earlier today you made a blanket statement that you didn’t think Lackey was going to be as effective pitching in the AL East. You gave no support whatsoever for this statement. That’s okay by me in this forum. But you get upset with others who do the same. And excuse me for singling you out – it’s not just you.

    For the purposes of most discussions here, basic, standard statistics are enough. And were enough for years. Each individual number may be limiting in what it can tell you, but most avid baseball fans can get a pretty good idea of what a player/team is doing by watching the play on the field and going through box scores. Precise? No. But enough for the purposes of many fans.

    The sheer volume of advanced metrics over at fangraphs is overwhelming.

  108. randy l. February 17th, 2010 at 11:56 pm

    “Yes, I my feelings are crushed. How will I ever survive?”

    gb7-
    i felt so bad i started to jump out the window to end it all, but doing a belly flop off the first floor would just make the neighbors really wonder about me.

  109. Doreen February 17th, 2010 at 11:57 pm

    Bronx Jeers -

    When I try to bring up statistics – or even just the odd acronym (DFA, for example) around my husband, he just cracks up at me! I don’t do it often – usually only after reading something here. :)

  110. Rich in NJ February 17th, 2010 at 11:57 pm

    “Please stop it now. Wins aren’t a bogus stat at all. A pitcher wins 300 games then he’s good. He’s one of the best pitchers to ever play the game. I don’t need any advance baseball stats to tell me that”

    Do you really think that Don Sutton and his 108 career ERA+ was one of the best pitchers to ever play the game?

  111. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am

    raymagnetic,

    It is not nonsense at all. Most experts around the game (Keith Law comes to mind just off the top of my head) and baseball front offices have recognized that pitcher wins are a bogus statistic that do not really tell you anything about an individual player.

    I never said if you win 20 games you are not a good pitcher. I said to go on the Nolan Ryan example that at 8-16 Ryan was a substantially better pitcher that a guy like Sutcliffe with 18 wins or Stewart with 20 wins.

    Lincecum and Greinke with their 15 and 16 wins respectively were better than CC, Felix, Verlander, and Wainwright with 19 wins.

    Wang with his league leading 19 wins in 2006 and 2nd in the league in 2007 was not even close to being the best pitcher in baseball

  112. Bo knows February 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am

    Clutch is pooh, poohed by sabremets. But with men on base I can tell you that I would take Matsui over anyone else on the Yankees for an RBI. Whatever the stats say.

  113. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 12:00 am

    randy l.
    February 17th, 2010 at 11:56 pm
    “Yes, I my feelings are crushed. How will I ever survive?”

    gb7-
    i felt so bad i started to jump out the window to end it all, but doing a belly flop off the first floor would just make the neighbors really wonder about me.

    ————————————————————

    LMAO. Yeah, getting a bloody nose and skinned elbows don’t exactly amount to a great amount of suffering and angst.

    How about that for sounding intelligent…ANGST?

  114. raymagnetic February 18th, 2010 at 12:05 am

    “Do you really think that Don Sutton and his 108 career ERA+ was one of the best pitchers to ever play the game?”

    Don Sutton pitched over 5000 innings and had a 1.1 WHIP for his career.

    Do you really think he wasn’t one of the best pitchers who ever played?

  115. m February 18th, 2010 at 12:06 am

    And so it has been decreed. :mad:

    In an appearance on WEEI’s Dale & Holley Show, ESPN’s Keith Law said that the Red Sox are the clear front-runners if and when Adrian Gonzalez hits the trade market. “I really think that Boston could top anybody if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available, and he will,” Law said. The transcript of Law’s appearance is available here.

    via mlbtr

  116. raymagnetic February 18th, 2010 at 12:07 am

    “raymagnetic,

    It is not nonsense at all. Most experts around the game (Keith Law comes to mind just off the top of my head) and baseball front offices have recognized that pitcher wins are a bogus statistic that do not really tell you anything about an individual player.

    I never said if you win 20 games you are not a good pitcher. I said to go on the Nolan Ryan example that at 8-16 Ryan was a substantially better pitcher that a guy like Sutcliffe with 18 wins or Stewart with 20 wins.

    Lincecum and Greinke with their 15 and 16 wins respectively were better than CC, Felix, Verlander, and Wainwright with 19 wins.

    Wang with his league leading 19 wins in 2006 and 2nd in the league in 2007 was not even close to being the best pitcher in baseball”

    Let’s go Yankees what you said is that wins are bogus. And that statement is utter and complete nonsense.

    Are you trying to say that Wang wasn’t one of the best pitchers in the game when he won 19 games back to back?

    In 2007 and 2008 Wang would have been a 1 or 2 on every team in the league.

    Are you really trying to tell me Wang wasn’t one of the best pitchers in the league those two years?

  117. Bronx Jeers February 18th, 2010 at 12:09 am

    Geezer Pat M and Geezer Randy are full of it.

    Yarns, I mean.

    ——————————————————–

    Funny but after spending most of the day reading about Brett Gardner’s UZR I found myself wondering what Nurse Karloff was up to.

  118. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:09 am

    Doreen,

    I admit I did make a blanket statement about Lackey before without any evidence. I can show the statistics for my reasoning, but Lackey was not a topic of discussion so to be honest I did not feel like typing all that stuff out when no one else was really talking about it. If someone questioned me on it that is a different story.

    To your point though, I believe when the season comes around there will either be less talk about advanced metrics and even some people may decide to make RAB their permanent home as the discussion is much more stat friendly

  119. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:10 am

    “Do you really think he wasn’t one of the best pitchers who ever played?”

    I think he is the classic compiler.

  120. Doreen February 18th, 2010 at 12:12 am

    LGY -

    What about dual blog citizenship?

  121. raymagnetic February 18th, 2010 at 12:15 am

    “I think he is the classic compiler.”

    And yet somehow he managed to “compile” 324 wins. Amazing isn’t it?

    How many other pitchers have been able to compile his numbers in the history of the game?

    In order to compile numbers you have to play a long time and be somewhat good at putting up numbers, no?

  122. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:15 am

    “Let’s go Yankees what you said is that wins are bogus. And that statement is utter and complete nonsense.”

    They are completely bogus when judging an individual pitcher. They are worthless. Garbage. Meaningless. Valueless. They tell you nothing about his ability as a pitcher.

    “Are you trying to say that Wang wasn’t one of the best pitchers in the game when he won 19 games back to back?”

    Yes. Unless you really want to stretch “best”

    “In 2007 and 2008 Wang would have been a 1 or 2 on every team in the league.”

    Nope. Not even close.

    “Are you really trying to tell me Wang wasn’t one of the best pitchers in the league those two years?”

    Yes. Unless you really want to stretch “best”

  123. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 12:17 am

    Why wouldn’t Sutton be considered one of the best pitchers in history? 324 wins, 3500+ strikeouts, 3.26 ERA, 5300 innings pitched, 58 shutouts, 178 complete games, WHIp of 1.13. To use the figure that you drool over FIP, 3.24. Of the more than 5000 major league pitchers in history, he’s a top 25. That’s pretty impressive.

  124. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 12:18 am

    “It’s really not fair being able to script predicted responses.
    There should be some variations thrown in by the responder.
    Mind you, they do leap to the bait, don’t they?”

    bo knows-

    makes you wonder , doesn’t it.

  125. m February 18th, 2010 at 12:19 am

    Whoo. Train’s really gone off the track tonight.

    What’s happening tomorrow in camp?

  126. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:20 am

    “And yet somehow he managed to “compile” 324 wins. Amazing isn’t it?”

    He played 23 seasons.

    “How many other pitchers have been able to compile his numbers in the history of the game?”

    Are you familiar with the word outlier?

    He had a productive stretch in the ’70s, but beyond that for most of his career he was an average pitcher who played on a lot of good teams.

  127. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 12:21 am

    Bronx Jeers
    February 18th, 2010 at 12:09 am
    Geezer Pat M and Geezer Randy are full of it.

    Yarns, I mean.

    ——————————————————–

    Funny but after spending most of the day reading about Brett Gardner’s UZR I found myself wondering what Nurse Karloff was up to.

    ————————————————————

    She has a fondness for geezers like Pat M and Randy. I’m too young for her after they stole her from me (bless their hearts).

  128. raymagnetic February 18th, 2010 at 12:25 am

    “They are completely bogus when judging an individual pitcher. They are worthless. Garbage. Meaningless. Valueless. They tell you nothing about his ability as a pitcher.”

    Let’s Go Yankees,

    If you believe wins tell you absolutely nothing about a pitcher, well then, there’s really nothing I can say to convince you otherwise and this discussion is pointless.

    The last 3 years CC has won 55 games. But I’m to believe his wins tell me nothing :???:

    Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds :???:

  129. raymagnetic February 18th, 2010 at 12:27 am

    “Are you familiar with the word outlier?

    He had a productive stretch in the ’70s, but beyond that for most of his career he was an average pitcher who played on a lot of good teams.”

    Are you familiar with the term you have no idea what you’re talking about?

    Don Sutton’s total body of work shows he was one of the best pitchers who ever played the game, period.

  130. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:30 am

    Quick list of pitchers better than Wang in 2007:

    Beckett
    Lackey
    Carmona
    Sabathia
    Haren
    Escobar
    Bedard
    Kazmir
    Santana
    Webb
    Peavy
    Penny
    Smoltz
    Oswalt
    Hudson
    Hamels
    Young
    Cain

    Probably missed a few in there also

  131. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:32 am

    “Don Sutton’s total body of work shows he was one of the best pitchers who ever played the game, period.”

    That’s why his was ERA+ was 8% above average for his career.

    “Are you familiar with the term you have no idea what you’re talking about?”

    I guess when you have nothing to say, you resort to personal insults. I love the internet.

    Thanks for the laugh.

  132. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 12:33 am

    “To your point though, I believe when the season comes around there will either be less talk about advanced metrics and even some people may decide to make RAB their permanent home as the discussion is much more stat friendly”

    let’s go yankees-

    if you want to go where everyone agrees with you , RAB looks like the place to go.

    however ,if you have the guts to compete with your ideas , i think this is the better place to be.

    some people just aren’t cut out for being challenged.

    there is a huge community of baseball fans here with an unbelievable amount of collective baseball experience.

    if you come in with a very narrow view point you are going to be challenged.

  133. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:33 am

    The last 3 years CC has won 55 games. But I’m to believe his wins tell me nothing

    Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds

    ———————-

    Since him winning 55 games has nothing to do with how good CC as a pitcher is it is not ridiculous at all.

    Keith Law has explained why wins for a pitcher mean nothing several times very succinctly and intelligently.

  134. m February 18th, 2010 at 12:34 am

    And yet Wang came in 2nd in AL Cy Young voting based on wins which guys like K-Law absolutely hate but still use anyway.

    I think the premise was that Wang would be #1 or #2 on any team in the majors? Or pretty close to it.

  135. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:35 am

    randy,

    Again putting words in my mouth and making up things that are not there. I never said I am going over to RAB permanently so while your post was nice it does not apply to me.

  136. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:36 am

    m,

    Guys like K Law absolutely do not use wins. I believe that was quite evident from his first Cy Young ballot this year and how he explained it.

  137. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:37 am

    “The last 3 years CC has won 55 games. But I’m to believe his wins tell me nothing

    Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds”

    CC won the last three years because he pitched well:

    ERA+

    2007: 141
    2008: 157
    2009: 127

    He pitched on three very good teams. If he didn’t, he would have less wins.

    If you can’t see that, then you don’t know what ridiculous means.

  138. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 12:38 am

    2 of the 4 seasons that Sutton played with in the 60s were less than .500 teams. 2 of the teams in the 80s were less than .500 and in the 80s, 4 of those teams were less tham .500. Not exactly always being on good teams, was it?

  139. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:38 am

    “some people just aren’t cut out for being challenged.”

    Oh please, lgy can defend himself.

    It does get a little tedious here fighting the same battles over and over.

  140. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 12:39 am

    2 of the teams in the 70s were less than .500

  141. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:40 am

    “2 of the 4 seasons that Sutton played with in the 60s were less than .500 teams. 2 of the teams in the 80s were less than .500 and in the 80s, 4 of those teams were less tham .500. Not exactly always being on good teams, was it?”

    Oh right, ERA+ means nothing. It’s just one of those crazy stats.

  142. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:40 am

    The CY Young voting is starting to become less of a joke with guys like Law breaking in and getting votes. There was actually weeks of discussion this year that Grienke was not going to win the CY Young because of the people who vote for the award. That is absurd.

    Hopefully the Hall of Fame follows suit but it does not look promising with some of the recent inductees and guys not getting voted in.

  143. System LORD - Baal February 18th, 2010 at 12:41 am

    Enjoy Game # 1 the 2009 ALCS Angels v Yanks
    MLB.ALDS.G1.New.York.YankeesAngels link below

    http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMTI1OTUxNDY4.html

  144. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 12:41 am

    “Guys like K Law absolutely do not use wins. I believe that was quite evident from his first Cy Young ballot this year and how he explained it.”

    no one in baseball pays keith law to do anything that affects the game on the field.

    he’s inconsequential to the actual game of baseball.

    he’s in effect a critic.
    you know , those who watch other people who actually do things.

  145. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:44 am

    “you know , those who watch other people who actually do things.”

    Extending your logic to its extreme, once a person hits 35 or 40 and can’t play anymore, they have nothing to contribute.

    Somehow I don’t think you believe that.

  146. m February 18th, 2010 at 12:44 am

    Well, now we know how K-Law would’ve voted had he been voting the year Wang came in 2nd.

    I just meant in general, these writers %#&*^% & moan about how wins aren’t important, yet you can’t sniff top 3 compiling 19-20 wins.

  147. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:44 am

    Law has been offered several jobs by teams and has refused since leaving the Blue Jays.

  148. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 12:46 am

    “It does get a little tedious here fighting the same battles over and over.”

    rich in nj-

    then why don’t you take your ball and go home if you can’t take the debate.

    no one’s stopping you.

  149. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 12:47 am

    “Law has been offered several jobs by teams and has refused since leaving the Blue Jays.”

    isn’t he kind of big for a bat boy and too ugly for a ball girl?

  150. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:47 am

    m,

    The writers who vote for the Cy Young do not moan about wins. They think they are very important. Keith Law is one of a very small minority of anti-wins people that have gotten a vote.

    In 2006 when Wang finished 2nd in the CY, he was not even the best SP on the Yankees…

  151. Jerkface February 18th, 2010 at 12:48 am

    If they didn’t award pitchers wins, would teams still win games?

  152. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:48 am

    Actually, Assistant GM positions, but if he had some spare time to be a bat boy maybe he would run on down to the field.

  153. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 12:48 am

    randy l.

    “then why don’t you take your ball and go home if you can’t take the debate.”

    Wait. If I become too bored, then I must not be able to take the debate?

    That doesn’t make sense.

  154. Jerkface February 18th, 2010 at 12:48 am

    Once you successfully answer yes, then tell me how flippin useful wins and losses for a pitcher are.

  155. m February 18th, 2010 at 12:52 am

    Whoa. What a difference a word makes!

    I just meant in general, these writers %#&*^% & moan about how wins aren’t important, yet you can’t sniff top 3 *without* compiling 19-20 wins.

    lgy,

    I like Keith Law, but he’s another talking head. He may rank near the top, but that just brings us back to the tallest midget comparison. :P

  156. stuckey February 18th, 2010 at 12:53 am

    “however ,if you have the guts to compete with your ideas , i think this is the better place to be.

    some people just aren’t cut out for being challenged.”

    On that note. If I understand your argument correctly, you have suggested that anthing that doesn’t “change the game” are inherently worthless, or irrelevant.

    Is this a correct characterization?

  157. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 12:53 am

    I wonder what starting line Mr. Law would pick?

    7.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 runs

    or

    5.2 innings, 3 hits, 1 runs

    because for the person that said Kazmir was a better pitcher than wang in 2006 that is what they would have to pick from.

  158. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 12:53 am

    “Extending your logic to its extreme, once a person hits 35 or 40 and can’t play anymore, they have nothing to contribute.”

    rich in nj-

    ahh, now that’s a good point and a fine distinction, but if a player has played a full career he surely will have a lot of baseball experience and wisdom he can transfer to players actually playing.

    so he does affect what happens on the field.

    but seriously, what does someone like keith law pass on to the players who play the game ?

    i don’t see it.

  159. Carl February 18th, 2010 at 12:55 am

    Bert Blyleven frowns upon this nonsense. He would kill for 13 more wins.

  160. System LORD - Baal February 18th, 2010 at 12:56 am

    http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMTI1OTUxNDY4.html

    Enjoy Game # 1 the 2009 ALCS Angels v Yanks
    MLB.ALDS.G1.New.York.YankeesAngels
    Enjoyable Game played in artic cold with drop plays and bad base running

  161. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 12:57 am

    Mark- Can’t Touch This
    February 18th, 2010 at 12:53 am
    I wonder what starting line Mr. Law would pick?
    7.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 runs
    or
    5.2 innings, 3 hits, 1 runs
    because for the person that said Kazmir was a better pitcher than wang in 2006 that is what they would have to pick from.

    ———————–

    Mr. Law would say that you read the post wrong because it says 2007 at the top.

  162. Bo knows February 18th, 2010 at 12:57 am

    Baseball Fans by definition like stats. We all sneak over to Fangraphs for their articles. Some great articles by the way. I think the blog posters would be unanimous that Blyleven should be in the HOF. It’s just that stats need a garnish of knowledge, experience if you will. Stats don’t describe Tony Fernandez playing SS or White in CF. Damn, they were good.

  163. m February 18th, 2010 at 12:57 am

    Well, I think most people (experts or not) can settle on a happy medium and agree that wins might not be the most important stat for a pitcher, it’s still somewhat important.

    Find me a pitcher who doesn’t want to notch a win, and I’ll bet he’d rather be playing hockey (cough-Bedard). :P

  164. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 12:59 am

    Rich in NJ
    February 18th, 2010 at 12:20 am
    “And yet somehow he managed to “compile” 324 wins. Amazing isn’t it?”
    He played 23 seasons.
    “How many other pitchers have been able to compile his numbers in the history of the game?”
    Are you familiar with the word outlier?
    He had a productive stretch in the ’70s, but beyond that for most of his career he was an average pitcher who played on a lot of good teams.
    ________

    And ran into 324 games, playing on a lot of good teams and being an average player means winning 324 games that is why we have so many 324 game winners in MLB history.

  165. stuckey February 18th, 2010 at 1:00 am

    “you know , those who watch other people who actually do things.”

    Another question – is it possible this statement succinctly summarizes your underlying position on this matter – a culture war between those whose knowledge and assumptions were largely gained playing the game and those who didn’t yet criticize and/or claim a superior level of understanding over those who did?

    Further, would you consider yourself part of the former group?

    And if both of these things are true, would you agree or not that your stake in this “debate” is significantly personal and emotional?

  166. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 1:00 am

    lets go yankees
    February 18th, 2010 at 12:57 am
    Mark- Can’t Touch This
    February 18th, 2010 at 12:53 am
    I wonder what starting line Mr. Law would pick?
    7.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 runs
    or
    5.2 innings, 3 hits, 1 runs
    because for the person that said Kazmir was a better pitcher than wang in 2006 that is what they would have to pick from.
    ———————–
    Mr. Law would say that you read the post wrong because it says 2007 at the top.
    _____

    My apologies what line would Mr. Law pick in 2007?

  167. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 1:01 am

    Wang was not even the best pitcher on his own team, yet he finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2006 because he had 19 wins.

    Does that really make sense?

  168. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 1:02 am

    randy i

    I get the sense (maybe I’m wrong) that you view the this is an either/or issue. Either you have hands on experience (i.e., playing) or you have nothing to contribute.

    Why can’t both forms of experience make a contribution?

    No one I know thinks that baseball experience isn’t valuable.

    But how does that exclude or diminish the contribution of someone like Law?

    He doesn’t have to work with players, but he may well have tools that can help put more talented players on the field. Or his skillset may provide valuable scouting information, like letting a hitter know what a pitcher he hasn’t seen throws as well as what count/situation he throw various pitches.

    That has value as well.

  169. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 1:04 am

    “And ran into 324 games, playing on a lot of good teams and being an average player means winning 324 games that is why we have so many 324 game winners in MLB history.”

    That’s why I used the world outlier.

    There were many better pitchers than Sutton, but they didn’t last nearly as long.

    If you want to give him brownie points for that, go for it.

  170. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 1:06 am

    “On that note. If I understand your argument correctly, you have suggested that anthing that doesn’t “change the game” are inherently worthless, or irrelevant.
    Is this a correct characterization?”

    stuckey,

    i’ll play along.

    i would say anything that doesn’t impact the winning and losing of a game on the field isn’t of that much interest to me.

    i don’t see baseball prospectus making derek jeter a better baseball player.

    i do see that baseball prospectus is of interest to owners in trying to decide how much to pay players. i don’t see it affecting the strategy of the game itself and the way that players play it.

    sabermetrics is really more about the business of baseball and not the game on the field.
    i understand people being interested in the business of baseball, but that’s not my interest nor do i think it is the majority of fans’ interest.

    that said, if someone is interested in the business of baseball. fine. i just don’t think one should mix the two things up.

    i suppose that at some point someone like greinke can not try to win or care about winning , but rather pile up stats that keith law likes and have some owner pay him more money because of that.

    but that’s not going to create wins on the field . that’s just money and business.

  171. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 1:07 am

    lets go yankees
    February 18th, 2010 at 1:01 am
    Wang was not even the best pitcher on his own team, yet he finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2006 because he had 19 wins.
    Does that really make sense?
    _____

    Depends what you are looking for, consistency then yes it makes sense. Domination then no. Again it goes back to what you think is important 5 scoreless innings or 7.2 innings of 3 run ball. You would take Kazmir over Wang in 2007 as mentioned in your list I would take Wang. Only the truly great pitchers can give you both domination and innings.

  172. stuckey February 18th, 2010 at 1:08 am

    “ahh, now that’s a good point and a fine distinction, but if a player has played a full career he surely will have a lot of baseball experience and wisdom he can transfer to players actually playing.”

    How about Joe McCarthy, Earl Weaver, Jim Leyland and other successful managers that never played a major league game.

    May I assume you feel Brian Cashman brings NOTHING of value to the NY Yankee organization?

  173. Bo knows February 18th, 2010 at 1:09 am

    This debate reminds me of fresh baked engineers running into project foremen. Urk.

    Knowledge without experience is theory.

  174. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 1:09 am

    randy,

    Greinke does not win not because he does not want to, but because his team sucks. And his team sucking has nothing to do with how great a pitcher he is.

    If you put Grienke on the Yankees last year how many wins do you think he would have, but he would still be the same pitcher.

    And if you do not think what Grienke contributes creates wins on the field then I do not know what to tell you, because he was one of the best if not the best pitcher in baseball last year.

  175. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 1:10 am

    Rich in NJ
    February 18th, 2010 at 1:04 am
    “And ran into 324 games, playing on a lot of good teams and being an average player means winning 324 games that is why we have so many 324 game winners in MLB history.”
    That’s why I used the world outlier.
    There were many better pitchers than Sutton, but they didn’t last nearly as long.
    If you want to give him brownie points for that, go for it.
    ______

    Its not a question of if I want to give brownie points, the fact is that he deserves Brownie points, longevity and consistency matters its part of what makes some players great. Again its what you desire consistency or domination.

  176. m February 18th, 2010 at 1:12 am

    stuckey,

    Noooo!! You just laid a fat pitch right over the heart of the plate for randy l.

  177. Nick in SF February 18th, 2010 at 1:13 am

    “i would say anything that doesn’t impact the winning and losing of a game on the field isn’t of that much interest to me.”

    And that’s the kind of wisdom *I* come to LoHud to read. :)

  178. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 1:13 am

    Mark,

    Wang has never averaged 7 innings per start in his career so I really want to know where you are getting these lines from. Are you just making them up in your head?

  179. Bo knows February 18th, 2010 at 1:14 am

    Yep, batting practice.

  180. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 1:14 am

    And Kazmir averaged over 6 innings per start in 07…

  181. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 1:14 am

    “He doesn’t have to work with players, but he may well have tools that can help put more talented players on the field. ”

    rich in nj-

    i’ll give you that law could do what you say with providing info about what pitches a pitcher throws. this could help a batter.

    the problem is that in the statistical analysis community, someone like law is considered an overall expert who knows as much about baseball as anyone in the game.

    someone who can provide simple scouting info is simply a scout . no big deal.
    lots of people can do that.
    an mba from harvard isn’t necessary like law has.

    i think law is smart as hell.
    i just don’t think he has much to contribute to the game of baseball.
    with his background he could be useful in the business of baseball.
    those are two different things.

  182. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 1:15 am

    “Its not a question of if I want to give brownie points, the fact is that he deserves Brownie points, longevity and consistency matters its part of what makes some players great. Again its what you desire consistency or domination.”

    For the Hall of Fame, it should be both.

  183. m February 18th, 2010 at 1:19 am

    Not that randy l would hit one of the park when asked about his views on Cashman. It’d be more like a very loud out! ;)

  184. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 1:20 am

    In 2006:

    Wang: 19-6, 3.63 ERA, 124 ERA+, 3.91 FIP, started game 2 of the ALDS

    Moose: 15-7, 3.51 ERA, 129 ERA+, 3.46 FIP, started game 1 of the ALDS

  185. Nick in SF February 18th, 2010 at 1:20 am

    I’m thinking more like a Dave Kingman strikeout. Loud whiff.

  186. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 1:20 am

    There sure a lot of outliers in the HOF.

  187. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 1:23 am

    Man, my post to randy i got eated.

    To reiterate:

    I think you underestimate the degree to which stat people value scouting. It is viewed as 50 percent of the equation, particularly when evaluating prospects.

    On a related note, Billy Beane, a leader in stat analysis, just gave Sheets $10m. That could only be done based on the advice of scouts and medical people because prior stats would be of limited utility.

  188. stuckey February 18th, 2010 at 1:23 am

    “i would say anything that doesn’t impact the winning and losing of a game on the field isn’t of that much interest to me.”

    Fair enough and I wouldn’t presume to try to make you interested in anything. But your personal interest level hasn’t been what this fight has been about and I think you know that.

    “i don’t see baseball prospectus making derek jeter a better baseball player.”

    Well, that’s actually an interesting point. Last winter Derek Jeter, a multiple gold-glove winning SS in the later end of his career was challenged by his non-baseball playing GM to become a better defensive player, a deficiency that in large part was HIGHLIGHTED and drawn public attention to via the work of media types citing advanced defensive metrics.

    So i wouldn’t go so far as saying Baseball Prospectus specifically made Derek Jeter a better player, but I think a reasonable person can make a solid argument to the affect than a metric and the public advancing of a metric other than fielding percentage and naked eye scouting could have contributed to some level to Derek Jeter becoming a better baseball player.

    “i don’t see it affecting the strategy of the game itself and the way that players play it.”

    I remember Paul O’Neill being encouraged to move deeper and towards center during a critical 9th inning AB in the 1996 World Series. He wound up making a running catching in the web of his glove running to his right and deep with a man on base, protecting a one run lead in game 4 or 5.

    Ever wonder why the coaching staff encouraged him to move deeper and to his right?

    Guess work?

    “sabermetrics is really more about the business of baseball and not the game on the field.”

    How and why a team chooses to spend it’s money on players ENTIRELY affects how it performs on the field.

    I honestly don’t believe you really believe what you just typed.

  189. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 1:24 am

    “How about Joe McCarthy, Earl Weaver, Jim Leyland and other successful managers that never played a major league game.”

    how many years were they in the minors?

    i have a close friend stan cliburn, who has won over a thousand minor league games as a manager and who only played a year in the majors.

    stan knows as much baseball as anyone.

    as far as cashman goes, just now it appears he’s starting to get it. how long has he been around the pro game? a very long time.

    that’s experience. i’m not saying playing is the only way. but to gain insight into the game not being a player like cashman takes a long apprenticeship.

    you don’t just learn a few formulas and know the game.

  190. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 1:24 am

    “There sure a lot of outliers in the HOF.”

    Given the historical bias of the voters, that’s hardly a surprise.

  191. m February 18th, 2010 at 1:25 am

    Gary Sheffield corkscrew swing & miss

  192. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 1:29 am

    lets go yankees
    February 18th, 2010 at 1:13 am
    Mark,
    Wang has never averaged 7 innings per start in his career so I really want to know where you are getting these lines from. Are you just making them up in your head?
    ______

    My point is that you and Mr. Law being the geniuses of baseball that you are what do you think was better Wang’s innings per start or Kazmir’s domination per start. In the age of bullpens what would you pick Wangs innings pitched per start and his 3.70 ERA or Kazmir’s innings pitched per start and his 3.48 ERA?

  193. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 1:30 am

    Outliers like Johnson, Spahn, Ford, Alexander, Grove, Ruth, Williams, Mays, Aaron…a bunch of guys that only hung around long enough to compile stats.

  194. Nick in SF February 18th, 2010 at 1:31 am

    Daisuke Murakami finished in 27th place in the snowboarding halfpipe competition. :evil:

  195. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 1:32 am

    Add Carlton, Seaver, Ryan to that bunch of compilers.

  196. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 1:34 am

    “Its not a question of if I want to give brownie points, the fact is that he deserves Brownie points, longevity and consistency matters its part of what makes some players great. Again its what you desire consistency or domination.”
    For the Hall of Fame, it should be both.
    _________

    Averaging 14 wins per year for 23 years in not HOF worthy and doesn’t make you a great pitcher?

  197. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 1:35 am

    Rich in NJ
    February 18th, 2010 at 1:23 am
    Man, my post to randy i got eated.

    ————————————————————

    Nothing worse than “eated” posts.

  198. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 1:37 am

    “How and why a team chooses to spend it’s money on players ENTIRELY affects how it performs on the field.”

    we’ll have to continue this another time as i have an early tee time and if i duck hook my first drive because i was up late debating the value of sabermetics , i’d be really upset.

    i do think sabermetrics is more about trying to figure out how much to pay a player than how to make that player a better player.

    again, i think it’s about the business of baseball.

    to be continued…

  199. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 1:37 am

    “My point is that you and Mr. Law being the geniuses of baseball that you are what do you think was better Wang’s innings per start or Kazmir’s domination per start. In the age of bullpens what would you pick Wangs innings pitched per start and his 3.70 ERA or Kazmir’s innings pitched per start and his 3.48 ERA?”

    ————————-

    I really think you need to go look up Wang’s average per start and Kazmir’s average per start in 2007 instead of making stuff up in your head without facts…

    And Kazmir being better than Wang in 07 goes well beyond just their ERA.

  200. Nick in SF February 18th, 2010 at 1:38 am

    The business of baseball is winning games! :mad:

  201. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 1:40 am

    randy l.
    February 18th, 2010 at 1:37 am
    “How and why a team chooses to spend it’s money on players ENTIRELY affects how it performs on the field.”

    we’ll have to continue this another time as i have an early tee time and if i duck hook my first drive because i was up late debating the value of sabermetics , i’d be really upset.

    ————————————————————

    I was under the impression that a duck hook was your best shot.

  202. stuckey February 18th, 2010 at 1:40 am

    “”how many years were they in the minors?”

    How many years did they need to be?

    Exactly how much experience x what level does someone need to have to understand the game of baseball at the major league level?

    “i’m not saying playing is the only way. but to gain insight into the game not being a player like cashman takes a long apprenticeship.”

    Keith Law, whom I believe you’ve dismissed, spent 4 years with a major league team, this after years of observing and analyzing the game for many years before that.

    I’ll ask again. How much experience x what level is sufficient experience in your personal view?

  203. randy l. February 18th, 2010 at 1:43 am

    “I remember Paul O’Neill being encouraged to move deeper and towards center during a critical 9th inning AB in the 1996 World Series.”

    stuckey-

    sabermetric data moved oneil?

    in 1996?

    ok that’s it for tonight . i’m out of here.

    gb7 keep up the good fight.

  204. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 1:49 am

    lets go yankees
    February 18th, 2010 at 1:37 am
    “My point is that you and Mr. Law being the geniuses of baseball that you are what do you think was better Wang’s innings per start or Kazmir’s domination per start. In the age of bullpens what would you pick Wangs innings pitched per start and his 3.70 ERA or Kazmir’s innings pitched per start and his 3.48 ERA?”
    ————————-
    I really think you need to go look up Wang’s average per start and Kazmir’s average per start in 2007 instead of making stuff up in your head without facts…
    And Kazmir being better than Wang in 07 goes well beyond just their ERA.
    ______

    Yes Wang had more wins, gave up 9 less HRs, pitched 7.2 less innings in 4 less starts meanwhile only gave up 2 more ER. To say without a doubt Kazmir was better than Wang and no argument can be made about it just stupid. I love WHIP, strikeouts, and ERA as much as the next guy. but I also enjoy innings pitched per start and wins, no matter how much the team and not the pitcher is responsible for that win.

  205. stuckey February 18th, 2010 at 1:50 am

    “i do think sabermetrics is more about trying to figure out how much to pay a player than how to make that player a better player.”

    I encourage you to spend your 4 hours on the course trying to think your way out of this one.

    Sabermetrics is OF COURSE about trying to figure out WHICH players to pay AND how much to pay them. I think you’d agree free agency has a profound affect on on-the-field matters.

    And why does EVERY major league team bother to keep pitch charts.

    Arbitration hearings?

  206. lets go yankees February 18th, 2010 at 1:57 am

    Kazmir had a better ERA, a better ERA+, a better FIP, and was worth almost a full win more than Wang in 2007

  207. stuckey February 18th, 2010 at 1:59 am

    “sabermetric data moved oneil?

    in 1996?”

    I think it’s likely the cataloging and crunching of mounds of data involving Luis Polonia led the Yankees to believe the odds of him hitting a ball off John Wettland to the right field gap were enough to position O’Niell in a different spot than he was previously in.

    And that’s really ALL we’ve ever been talking about. Collecting data and spitting it out in ways that tells you something useful about players.

  208. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 2:03 am

    lets go yankees
    February 18th, 2010 at 1:37 am
    “My point is that you and Mr. Law being the geniuses of baseball that you are what do you think was better Wang’s innings per start or Kazmir’s domination per start. In the age of bullpens what would you pick Wangs innings pitched per start and his 3.70 ERA or Kazmir’s innings pitched per start and his 3.48 ERA?”
    ————————-
    I really think you need to go look up Wang’s average per start and Kazmir’s average per start in 2007 instead of making stuff up in your head without facts…
    And Kazmir being better than Wang in 07 goes well beyond just their ERA
    ______

    I did Wang averaged more innings pitched per start, in fact Kazmir pitched only about 7 more innings than Wang in 4 more starts. The difference between Wang’s ERA and Kazmir’s ERA is 7 innings and 2 more earn runs.

  209. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 2:04 am

    Outliers like Johnson, Spahn, Ford, Alexander, Grove, Ruth, Williams, Mays, Aaron…a bunch of guys that only hung around long enough to compile stats.

    Johnson: 147 career ERA+
    Spahn:: 118 career ERA+
    Ford: 133 career ERA+
    Alexander: 135 career ERA+
    Grove: 148 career ERA+

    Ruth: 207 career OPS+
    Williams: 191 career OPS+
    Mays:156 career OPS+
    Aaron: 155 career OPS+

    Don Sutton’s 108 career ERA+ pales in comparison.

  210. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 2:07 am

    Either that or common sense told Torre and Jose Cardenal that Polonia couldn’t pull Wettland’s best fastball.

  211. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 2:11 am

    Kazmir had a better ERA, a better ERA+, a better FIP, and was worth almost a full win more than Wang in 2007
    _________

    I love ERA, ERA+, FIP, I don’t really care for WAR but I acknowledge it. I also love averaging 6.64 innings per start and 19 wins and a 3.70 ERA over averaging 6.0 innings per start and 3.48 ERA and 13 wins. In a age of bullpens .64 innings can be the difference between getting a win or a lost for both the team and the pitcher.

  212. Mark- Can't Touch This February 18th, 2010 at 2:14 am

    Outliers like Johnson, Spahn, Ford, Alexander, Grove, Ruth, Williams, Mays, Aaron…a bunch of guys that only hung around long enough to compile stats.
    Johnson: 147 career ERA+
    Spahn:: 118 career ERA+
    Ford: 133 career ERA+
    Alexander: 135 career ERA+
    Grove: 148 career ERA+
    Ruth: 207 career OPS+
    Williams: 191 career OPS+
    Mays:156 career OPS+
    Aaron: 155 career OPS+
    Don Sutton’s 108 career ERA+ pales in comparison.
    _______

    That Ruth OPS+ is wow.

    oh don’t forget Sutton’s 324 wins and his averaging 14.08 wins per year for 23 years thats also a wow stat.

  213. Pat M. February 18th, 2010 at 2:19 am

    Chad The Lad and his bouys might want to initiate a drug testing policy for the LoHuders who wprk the swing shift…..Pitchers wins mean nothing ???? Let’s go Yanks, you’d be the first in line for cup samples……Honesty, that is beyond belief……As for Don Sutton, I never liked the hump, but he was good, and not because I managed to pop uot vs. him…….The dude to the rubber in big games besides October games……324, 324, 324….Now just think about winning 324 games at the Big League level, bith leagues facing a wealth of Hall of FAame players from the 60’70′ 80′s and even into the 90′s if I not mistaken…….Get a clue

  214. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 2:22 am

    According to him, Catfish Hunter doesn’t belong in the HOF and Ryan, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Early Wynn and Steve Carlton, all with a lower than or no more than 8 points more on ERA+.

  215. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 2:27 am

    That’s right, I have very strict standards for the HoF.

  216. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 2:28 am

    Pat M.
    February 18th, 2010 at 2:19 am
    Chad The Lad and his bouys might want to initiate a drug testing policy for the LoHuders who wprk the swing shift…..Pitchers wins mean nothing ???? Let’s go Yanks, you’d be the first in line for cup samples……Honesty, that is beyond belief……As for Don Sutton, I never liked the hump, but he was good, and not because I managed to pop uot vs. him…….The dude to the rubber in big games besides October games……324, 324, 324….Now just think about winning 324 games at the Big League level, bith leagues facing a wealth of Hall of FAame players from the 60?70? 80’s and even into the 90’s if I not mistaken…….Get a clue

    ————————————————————

    And RBI are a bogus stat. I wonder why the same people insist that Cano only hit .203 with RISP and isn’t good at driving in runs if RBI are bogus?

  217. Rich in NJ February 18th, 2010 at 2:28 am

    “oh don’t forget Sutton’s 324 wins and his averaging 14.08 wins per year for 23 years thats also a wow stat.”

    It’s a wow from a durability perspective, but that’s it.

  218. GreenBeret7 February 18th, 2010 at 2:32 am

    That would certainly put you at the top of the Special Ed class then. All but Wynn and Hunter struck out more than 3000 and all but Hunter and Fergie Jenkins won 300 games.

  219. Pat M. February 18th, 2010 at 2:35 am

    Well Rich in NJ….You should have pled and made your best case a few tears ago vs the HOF voting committe..I hope your track record in the civil court arenea’s is better than that lost case vs. Sutton….I understand you gravitate for debates, but this one is not for you though…..You’re comprimising what ever credibility you have remaining as of late

  220. bru February 18th, 2010 at 6:50 am

    Crediting all of the deviation to either the pitcher or the defense (or rather, all to the pitcher or none to pitcher, which is what both FIP and other stats like ERA, opponent batting lines, etc. do; none of them actually measure defensive value) is wrong, which means you probably shouldn’t throw out either type of stat, because both tell you something about how well the pitcher pitched. Which one is less, wrong, though? It depends in part on how big your sample is, but probably crediting none of the variation to the pitcher, at least over one season. You are going to lose less by regressing the effect of the pitcher completely to the mean than by regressing the effect of the fielder completely to the mean. Even if you disagree with that, the regression that each does is wrong to some extent, so you shouldn’t take one and say it does not measure value because of its regression and take the other and pretend it doesn’t also regress.

  221. bru February 18th, 2010 at 6:51 am

    So in fielding-independent stats, we have a distinct perspective on defensive support that is not provided by traditional stats.
    We also have a distinct perspective on other issues.

    Opponent batting lines and FIP both give a sequence-independent perspective, but each perspective takes a different approach in choosing how to group events to regress to the mean value and in how to decide what value to use for those events, as well as how to present that value (opponent batting lines as a pseudo-binomial rate and FIP as a run value rate).

    ERA and FIP both present a distribution-independent run-value rate that is based on the actual values of events, but each makes different assumptions about what values or factors should or should not be regressed. Some of these assumptions are clearly better in FIP’s case (choosing not to regress defensive or bullpen support), some are more grey but still favour FIP (not discarding events that happen after a botched third out), and some simply offer differing perspectives that each have value (choosing to regress the value of events or simply take the outcome, regressing sequencing or not).

    It is important to consider all of these perspectives in analyzing what happened.

  222. Doreen February 18th, 2010 at 7:03 am

    Wow -

    looks like a went off to sleep too early. :) This “debate” went on for a loooooong time last night.

  223. bru February 18th, 2010 at 7:26 am

    fip is another tool to evaluate a pitcher

    i like to look at everything so if you look at wins/losses/era/whip/fip/baa you can get a full picture

    Jonathan Papelbon (1.85 ERA) and Ramon Ramirez (2.84 ERA) were both back end of the bullpen arms with sparkling ERA’s, however their FIP’s of 2.98 and 4.38 tell a different story (the one of why they were frustrating to watch most of last season). Both pitchers had issues with walking batters and Ramirez’s strikeout rate was a career low.

    The two pitchers that took the most abuse from Red Sox Nation probably deserved a better fate. John Smoltz and Brad Penny each had FIP’s in the 4.00’s, much more respectable than their 8.33 and 5.61 ERA’s. Fittingly, Smoltz had a 4.26 ERA after joining the Cardinals and Penny posted a 2.59 ERA with the Giants.

    Jon Lester and Josh Beckett’s FIP’s of 3.07 and 3.55 show that their skills are elite, with an improved 2010 defense behind them they could both be in for dominating seasons. John Lackey’s 3.73 FIP wasn’t too shabby either.

    same with hitting

    avg/hr/rbi/slg/obp/ops & so on

    stats are always evolving & in the process are accepted in different degrees

  224. Chad Jennings February 18th, 2010 at 8:09 am

    New post


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