Comments on: Notes from Day 1 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/ A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:45:46 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Chad Jennings http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236068 Chad Jennings Thu, 18 Feb 2010 13:09:09 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236068 New post New post

]]> By: bru http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236065 bru Thu, 18 Feb 2010 12:26:06 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236065 fip is another tool to evaluate a pitcher i like to look at everything so if you look at wins/losses/era/whip/fip/baa you can get a full picture Jonathan Papelbon (1.85 ERA) and Ramon Ramirez (2.84 ERA) were both back end of the bullpen arms with sparkling ERA’s, however their FIP’s of 2.98 and 4.38 tell a different story (the one of why they were frustrating to watch most of last season). Both pitchers had issues with walking batters and Ramirez’s strikeout rate was a career low. The two pitchers that took the most abuse from Red Sox Nation probably deserved a better fate. John Smoltz and Brad Penny each had FIP’s in the 4.00’s, much more respectable than their 8.33 and 5.61 ERA’s. Fittingly, Smoltz had a 4.26 ERA after joining the Cardinals and Penny posted a 2.59 ERA with the Giants. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett’s FIP’s of 3.07 and 3.55 show that their skills are elite, with an improved 2010 defense behind them they could both be in for dominating seasons. John Lackey’s 3.73 FIP wasn’t too shabby either. same with hitting avg/hr/rbi/slg/obp/ops & so on stats are always evolving & in the process are accepted in different degrees fip is another tool to evaluate a pitcher

i like to look at everything so if you look at wins/losses/era/whip/fip/baa you can get a full picture

Jonathan Papelbon (1.85 ERA) and Ramon Ramirez (2.84 ERA) were both back end of the bullpen arms with sparkling ERA’s, however their FIP’s of 2.98 and 4.38 tell a different story (the one of why they were frustrating to watch most of last season). Both pitchers had issues with walking batters and Ramirez’s strikeout rate was a career low.

The two pitchers that took the most abuse from Red Sox Nation probably deserved a better fate. John Smoltz and Brad Penny each had FIP’s in the 4.00’s, much more respectable than their 8.33 and 5.61 ERA’s. Fittingly, Smoltz had a 4.26 ERA after joining the Cardinals and Penny posted a 2.59 ERA with the Giants.

Jon Lester and Josh Beckett’s FIP’s of 3.07 and 3.55 show that their skills are elite, with an improved 2010 defense behind them they could both be in for dominating seasons. John Lackey’s 3.73 FIP wasn’t too shabby either.

same with hitting

avg/hr/rbi/slg/obp/ops & so on

stats are always evolving & in the process are accepted in different degrees

]]> By: Doreen http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236062 Doreen Thu, 18 Feb 2010 12:03:41 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236062 Wow - looks like a went off to sleep too early. :) This "debate" went on for a loooooong time last night. Wow -

looks like a went off to sleep too early. :) This “debate” went on for a loooooong time last night.

]]> By: bru http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236061 bru Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:51:28 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236061 So in fielding-independent stats, we have a distinct perspective on defensive support that is not provided by traditional stats. We also have a distinct perspective on other issues. Opponent batting lines and FIP both give a sequence-independent perspective, but each perspective takes a different approach in choosing how to group events to regress to the mean value and in how to decide what value to use for those events, as well as how to present that value (opponent batting lines as a pseudo-binomial rate and FIP as a run value rate). ERA and FIP both present a distribution-independent run-value rate that is based on the actual values of events, but each makes different assumptions about what values or factors should or should not be regressed. Some of these assumptions are clearly better in FIP's case (choosing not to regress defensive or bullpen support), some are more grey but still favour FIP (not discarding events that happen after a botched third out), and some simply offer differing perspectives that each have value (choosing to regress the value of events or simply take the outcome, regressing sequencing or not). It is important to consider all of these perspectives in analyzing what happened. So in fielding-independent stats, we have a distinct perspective on defensive support that is not provided by traditional stats.
We also have a distinct perspective on other issues.

Opponent batting lines and FIP both give a sequence-independent perspective, but each perspective takes a different approach in choosing how to group events to regress to the mean value and in how to decide what value to use for those events, as well as how to present that value (opponent batting lines as a pseudo-binomial rate and FIP as a run value rate).

ERA and FIP both present a distribution-independent run-value rate that is based on the actual values of events, but each makes different assumptions about what values or factors should or should not be regressed. Some of these assumptions are clearly better in FIP’s case (choosing not to regress defensive or bullpen support), some are more grey but still favour FIP (not discarding events that happen after a botched third out), and some simply offer differing perspectives that each have value (choosing to regress the value of events or simply take the outcome, regressing sequencing or not).

It is important to consider all of these perspectives in analyzing what happened.

]]> By: bru http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236060 bru Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:50:02 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236060 Crediting all of the deviation to either the pitcher or the defense (or rather, all to the pitcher or none to pitcher, which is what both FIP and other stats like ERA, opponent batting lines, etc. do; none of them actually measure defensive value) is wrong, which means you probably shouldn't throw out either type of stat, because both tell you something about how well the pitcher pitched. Which one is less, wrong, though? It depends in part on how big your sample is, but probably crediting none of the variation to the pitcher, at least over one season. You are going to lose less by regressing the effect of the pitcher completely to the mean than by regressing the effect of the fielder completely to the mean. Even if you disagree with that, the regression that each does is wrong to some extent, so you shouldn't take one and say it does not measure value because of its regression and take the other and pretend it doesn't also regress. Crediting all of the deviation to either the pitcher or the defense (or rather, all to the pitcher or none to pitcher, which is what both FIP and other stats like ERA, opponent batting lines, etc. do; none of them actually measure defensive value) is wrong, which means you probably shouldn’t throw out either type of stat, because both tell you something about how well the pitcher pitched. Which one is less, wrong, though? It depends in part on how big your sample is, but probably crediting none of the variation to the pitcher, at least over one season. You are going to lose less by regressing the effect of the pitcher completely to the mean than by regressing the effect of the fielder completely to the mean. Even if you disagree with that, the regression that each does is wrong to some extent, so you shouldn’t take one and say it does not measure value because of its regression and take the other and pretend it doesn’t also regress.

]]> By: Pat M. http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236055 Pat M. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:35:36 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236055 Well Rich in NJ....You should have pled and made your best case a few tears ago vs the HOF voting committe..I hope your track record in the civil court arenea's is better than that lost case vs. Sutton....I understand you gravitate for debates, but this one is not for you though.....You're comprimising what ever credibility you have remaining as of late Well Rich in NJ….You should have pled and made your best case a few tears ago vs the HOF voting committe..I hope your track record in the civil court arenea’s is better than that lost case vs. Sutton….I understand you gravitate for debates, but this one is not for you though…..You’re comprimising what ever credibility you have remaining as of late

]]> By: GreenBeret7 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236054 GreenBeret7 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:32:59 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236054 That would certainly put you at the top of the Special Ed class then. All but Wynn and Hunter struck out more than 3000 and all but Hunter and Fergie Jenkins won 300 games. That would certainly put you at the top of the Special Ed class then. All but Wynn and Hunter struck out more than 3000 and all but Hunter and Fergie Jenkins won 300 games.

]]> By: Rich in NJ http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236053 Rich in NJ Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:28:47 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236053 "oh don’t forget Sutton’s 324 wins and his averaging 14.08 wins per year for 23 years thats also a wow stat." It's a wow from a durability perspective, but that's it. “oh don’t forget Sutton’s 324 wins and his averaging 14.08 wins per year for 23 years thats also a wow stat.”

It’s a wow from a durability perspective, but that’s it.

]]> By: GreenBeret7 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236052 GreenBeret7 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:28:20 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236052 Pat M. February 18th, 2010 at 2:19 am Chad The Lad and his bouys might want to initiate a drug testing policy for the LoHuders who wprk the swing shift…..Pitchers wins mean nothing ???? Let’s go Yanks, you’d be the first in line for cup samples……Honesty, that is beyond belief……As for Don Sutton, I never liked the hump, but he was good, and not because I managed to pop uot vs. him…….The dude to the rubber in big games besides October games……324, 324, 324….Now just think about winning 324 games at the Big League level, bith leagues facing a wealth of Hall of FAame players from the 60?70? 80’s and even into the 90’s if I not mistaken…….Get a clue ------------------------------------------------------------ And RBI are a bogus stat. I wonder why the same people insist that Cano only hit .203 with RISP and isn't good at driving in runs if RBI are bogus? Pat M.
February 18th, 2010 at 2:19 am
Chad The Lad and his bouys might want to initiate a drug testing policy for the LoHuders who wprk the swing shift…..Pitchers wins mean nothing ???? Let’s go Yanks, you’d be the first in line for cup samples……Honesty, that is beyond belief……As for Don Sutton, I never liked the hump, but he was good, and not because I managed to pop uot vs. him…….The dude to the rubber in big games besides October games……324, 324, 324….Now just think about winning 324 games at the Big League level, bith leagues facing a wealth of Hall of FAame players from the 60?70? 80’s and even into the 90’s if I not mistaken…….Get a clue

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And RBI are a bogus stat. I wonder why the same people insist that Cano only hit .203 with RISP and isn’t good at driving in runs if RBI are bogus?

]]> By: Rich in NJ http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-day-1/comment-page-5/#comment-1236051 Rich in NJ Thu, 18 Feb 2010 07:27:55 +0000 http://yankees.lhblogs.com/?p=23090#comment-1236051 That's right, I have very strict standards for the HoF. That’s right, I have very strict standards for the HoF.

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