Rivera has arrived
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Feb 18, 2010 
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The clock above the clubhouse door read 9:19 — of course the number nine was involved – when Mariano Rivera walked in from the hallway and began shaking hands with everyone in sight.
“Hello.”
“How are you?”
“Nice to see you.”
It was presidential, maybe even regal, the way he greeted everyone between the door and his locker. When he sat down, Rivera spoke for about 10 minutes. He said he’s not worried about his contract, that he doesn’t mind waiting until the offseason to negotiate. He said he wants to keep pitching as long as he’s capable of his lofty standards, but he wants to walk away the moment he starts slipping.
For now, he just wants to get back to work. Rivera’s spring training always moves at a slower pace than every other pitcher, and Rivera said he’s only tossed off flat ground this winter. He has yet to throw off a mound.
“I have enough time to do that,” he said.
UPDATE, 10:29 a.m.: Here’s the full audio of the Rivera interview. After he talked about wanting to pitch as long as he knows he can do it — “If I know, if I’m sure, 100 percent that I can do it, I will do it,” he said — someone asked Rivera if he can imagine a day when he’s no longer capable of pitching up to his standards.
“One day that will happen, and that day I will go,” he said. “This is not mine. I will go and the baseball will not stop because I don’t play any more.”
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he the man
I think he’ll sign another 3 year deal, although a Wakefield type deal (perpetual mutual options) might make sense for him.
I love Mo
How’s his hip?
Teddy……..he’s not a mere man……..he’s a Yankee GOD
Rich, got it; thanks!
Sorry, I don’t buy what Eiland is trying to sell. Even if Gaudin and co. have technically better springs than Joba or Phil, you can’t tell me that the Yankees think they are better options in the 5th spot than the kids. If anyone other than Phil or Joba get that spot, it means that Joba and Phil have had disastrous springs.
Mo was a day late?
Bad boy.
Nice imagery there Chad
I actually FELT Mo walkign through the room
EricVA:
The Wakefield deal with Boston involved club options rather than mutual options. Can’t imagine anyway Mo would accept that. I’d imagine it would just be a straight two year deal if he feels like going another two after this season.
Jeter has been asked if he is willing to play another position if he can no longer play SS.
Has anyone asked Mo if he is willing to set up if he can no longer close?
MTU,
I probably should have said Mountaineering in general interests me, not neccessarily high altitude. I would consider Ranier high altitude.
It always amazes me how little work Mo needs in ST to be ready for the season. This year, he’s not coming off of shoulder surgery, so he should be in even better shape. Of course, he’ll struggle some early, probably against the Sox, and people will automatically ask whether he’s done or not. It’s like Pavlov’s dog……..I’m also still amazed that, despite a bad rib, Mo did what he did in the playoffs. I wonder if the Phillies figured out over the off-season how to hit him.
Mo’s in camp. I feel better now.
What’s baseball’s manditory retirement age for pitchers? I’d guess about 62 years old. Perhaps Rivera gets a special clause and is grandfathered in (literally).
“Has anyone asked Mo if he is willing to set up if he can no longer close?”
has anyone asked bill james if he can sell hot dogs if his defensive blueprint this year for the red sox doesn’t work out ?
sorry joe he is a god.
i shouldn’t do this,but
has anyone seen damon around jk
“Are wins and RBI the sole or even primary reason to evaluate players? Of course not.”
I basically agree, but too many people think wins are the best stat to evaluate a pitcher, neglecting run support, park effects, league effects, etc.
“has anyone asked bill james if he can sell hot dogs if his defensive blueprint this year for the red sox doesn’t work out ?”
Ask him whatever you want, Bill James means $^#& to me.
Hoch: #42: “I definitely want to play. I don’t know how many years, but I definitely want to play. That’s what I do.”
1 minutes ago from web
randy l.
February 18th, 2010 at 10:19 am
“Has anyone asked Mo if he is willing to set up if he can no longer close?”
has anyone asked bill james if he can sell hot dogs if his defensive blueprint this year for the red sox doesn’t work out ?
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Randy, I’ve decided that because I’m a nice guy, and, although I think that you’re a trouble maker, I’m going to be your golfing guru. Money is money.
Last night, you mentioned a problem with a duck hook in your game. Here’s just a free sample of my expertise in the golfing game. It should fix the hook and get you ready for the Sr. PGA tour. As you get ready to tee up and address the ball, move 45 degrees (to the front of the ball) and hit the ball to your left. The hook should bring you right down the center of the fairway.
By the way…I get 20% of your winnings.
rich-
so do yankee team wins matter?
or do you think that baseball should just take the best sabermetric stats and after crunching the numbers award the world series to the team that has the best sabermetric stats.
make it into a kind of cy young award where wins don’t matter.
It’s comical that some people think Bill James still matters.
Just updated the post with the full Rivera audio. It’s a pretty solid 10 minute session. Good stuff from the closer.
randy i
You are confusing team wins (which matter) with pitcher wins (that matter far less).
It’s like you a fighting an imaginary dragon.
Blake-
Let’s take that subject off the board.
if you would like to discuss further cybermrb03@gmail.com
The clock above the clubhouse door read 9:19 — of course the number nine was involved –
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I’m sorry, maybe its just that the caffeine hasn’t kicked in yet – but what does the number 9 have to do with Rivera?
Pitching wins do matter though. Some guys pitch to the scoreboard. Starters who put up wins do help the team win totals.
I remember at one point on here, last year some folks worrying about CC’s lower K totals and deciding (sabermetrically of course) that it could be a sign of “decline”.
That lead to the Anti-Cashman contingent whining about “blowing money on a declining pitcher”. All based on a half season’s lower K totals. That was a numbers argument and not an eyeball argument because CC was still throwing the ball very, very well.
I also remember Randy, Pat M and myself stating that we felt he was pitching to the scoreboard. He was throwing more pitches to contact, because the offense was supplying him with sufficient run support. The numbers crunchers laughed at such a “far fetched” notion.
Lo and behold, CC gives an interview in Late July/Early August and states that he was indeed pitching to contact more because of the run suppport he was getting and the fact that his job was to secure wins.
My point is, wins do matter. Guys still get voted into the HOF on wins and arbitration hearings are often filled with discussions (positive and negative) on win totals.
Its not the sole reason to evaluate a pitcher. However, its also not “worthless”.
That’s the point guys like Randy, myself and Pat M are making.
sab
February 18th, 2010 at 10:39 am
I’m sorry, maybe its just that the caffeine hasn’t kicked in yet – but what does the number 9 have to do with Rivera?
****************
He is the king of the 9th inning silly!!!
9=the inning in which Rivera does his best work. I think that was the point Chad was making.
Frank –
You are correct. I was going for “Wakefield-type” as in something like it. I think a mutual option would work. Although, given that Mo seems serious about walking away when he’s not effective, even a player option would be ok in my mind.
Is Humberto Sanchez in camp?
JohnC –
I know he was a minor league free agent…not sure if he signed back with the Yankees.
Erica – always OPPC
February 18th, 2010 at 10:40 am
sab
February 18th, 2010 at 10:39 am
I’m sorry, maybe its just that the caffeine hasn’t kicked in yet – but what does the number 9 have to do with Rivera?
****************
He is the king of the 9th inning silly!!!
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Maybe they should just pass a new rule…The Rivera Rule, if you will. Any time the Yanks take a lead into the 9th inning, in order to cut some of the game’s length, just give the Yankees the win and Rivera the save. It’s as automatic as it gets, anyway. Rivera could pitch forever like that.
“Its not the sole reason to evaluate a pitcher. However, its also not “worthless”.”
No, I think some people are arguing that pitching wins are equal in value to team wins. That some pitchers have an innate quality that somehow motivates their teams to score more for them irrespective of the contours of any given park or the offensive talent level of their teammates.
BloggingBombers Randy Winn just jogged out with Derek Jeter for his first NYY workout. He’s wearing Yankees gear, not Giants. 10 seconds ago
Yup definetely the lack of caffeine – and its been a real long 3 months since the baseball juices were flowing..
thanks Erica and SJ44 for setting me straight…
oh and i’ll go put myself in the corner with a dunce hat on for an hour for not making the connection
It will be a sad, sad day when Mariano decides to hang ‘em up. With apologies to Bret Hart, Mo is the best there is, the best there was and best there ever wiil be.
Humberto was a six-year free agent. As far as I know, the Yankees did not re-sign him.
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/200.....ee-agents/
Lohud, I need your advice
I do not get radio reception in my office. I usually get the gameday audio package from MLB.com to listen to day games online (and the first week of the season while I am working late). However, as you know I am supposed to be off the internet when I am at work (I am at a client this week and taking full advantage to being off my Company servers).
So basically, if you were me would you order the package anyway, knowing it would get blocked and listening to it will drive up your usage and potentially get you in massive trouble??
I looked at the schedule, there is enough day games to make this an issue. There seems to be one every other week
“Has anyone asked Mo if he is willing to set up if he can no longer close?”
Rich,
Perhaps, Mo answered your question with his comment that once he starts slipping performance-wise in which he can’t close games as effectively as he’s done the last 13 years then he’ll walk away from baseball. Does that mean he starts going year to year like Pettitte? I don’t know as that question will have to be answered next offseason.
Olney on the Damon soap opera:
2. The Johnny Damon saga continues. If he does take the White Sox’s offer, it could turn out that he has walked away from no less than four theoretical or hard offers higher than what he takes from Chicago or Detroit.
The offer the Yankees would have made, had he engaged them in the first days right after the winter meetings, when the Yankees, internally, were discussing a proposal for Damon somewhere north of two years and $14 million. Remember, at that time, Damon told the Yankees to not bother making an offer if they intended to cut his salary.
The actual two-year, $14 million offer made by the Yankees after they agreed to terms with Nick Johnson.
A general $6 million proposal that Oakland was ready to discuss.
The $6 million offer that the Yankees made at the end of January, which included about $3 million in deferred money.
sab
February 18th, 2010 at 10:49 am
oh and i’ll go put myself in the corner with a dunce hat on for an hour for not making the connection
***********
No need. Just blame the lack of caffeine, sleepyhead
“You are confusing team wins (which matter) with pitcher wins (that matter far less).
It’s like you a fighting an imaginary dragon.”
rich in nj-
more like fighting a paper tiger.
i would think that you would use the same logic to point out that sabermetric team stats would often lead to the conclusion that the winner of the world series wasn’t the best team .
if that is true, then in your mind why wouldn’t you support a system where teams would play to have the best sabermetric stats.
and a winner would be declared by what the computer came up with after they played each other. best stats wins.
isn’t that what you are doing with the cy yound award?
just curious, as a team, did the yankees have the best team sabermetric stats last year?
Craw
You could be right. I would just like to see the question posed to him.
Rich in NJ-
Is it crazy that I am still hoping that Damon calls Cashman and says, “I was silly and wrong and please take me back”???
randy i
Tiger, dragon, it’s all imaginary. They don’t exist.
You don’t need sabermetrics to know that the best team talent-wise doesn’t always win. People have been saying that before your boy Bill James put pen to paper. But that doesn’t matter, if you get the ring, you are the champion.
Because I’m not insane, and because I’m not, I’m unwilling to engage in your silly mind game.
Seriously, you are obsessed with something that doesn’t exist.
Hey Rich I’m really interested in the math of baseball. I hate saying ‘sabermetrics’ because of the connotation it seems to have around here but I was wondering if you had any suggestions as far as books on the subject. Strange as it may seem I still prefer the feel of turning pages and the smell of a new book.
randy, your complete disconnect of the stats from the games being played is hilarious.
SJ44 – anyone making an argument against a pitchers strikeout rate after a half of a season is not making a “saber” argument, they are talking out of their o-ring. anyone with respect for what the numbers tell you wouldn’t make any definitive claim like that.
Erica
No, having hope is healthy. I share that hope, however faintly, but I think that ship sailed when he turned down the $6m offer ($3m deferred).
Rob NY
http://www.amazon.com/dp/15979.....D&
The universe was shining on the Yankees and fans when they delivered Mo. What a man, what an asset he has and will always be. There are some things difficult for me to imagine, Mo not suiting up is one.
Erica-I wouldn’t order the gameday audio- getting in trouble at work wouldn’t be worth it IMO. I know it’s torture when you’re stuck at work when there’s a game on though.
BTW, did you watch that clip of SJP on Sesame Street? What did you think?
I don’t even wanna think of the day of someone else closing games for us when Mo is gone
Rich in NJ
February 18th, 2010 at 11:00 am
Erica
No, having hope is healthy. I share that hope, however faintly, but I think that ship sailed when he turned down the $6m offer ($3m deferred).
**************
The client I am at has a poster hanging called “When Johnny Comes Marching Home”. For some reason it feels so appropriate
Erica
as long as Johnny remains unsigned, there is always hope, no matter how small.
Rich — Thanks. I’ll check that book out for sure.
Erin
February 18th, 2010 at 11:04 am
Erica-I wouldn’t order the gameday audio- getting in trouble at work wouldn’t be worth it IMO. I know it’s torture when you’re stuck at work when there’s a game on though.
BTW, did you watch that clip of SJP on Sesame Street? What did you think?
***************
ARGH! I knew I forgot something. I didn’t get home until 9:45 last night and I was mentally vacant by that point
Erica
Is unemployment enough to cover your mortgage, car payment and MLB.com bill?
upstate kate
February 18th, 2010 at 11:05 am
Erica
as long as Johnny remains unsigned, there is always hope, no matter how small.
****************
My thoughts exactly!! Which is why I have not settled up with Mr. Nick in SF yet
However, I did win our CMW bet
pat
February 18th, 2010 at 11:06 am
Erica
Is unemployment enough to cover your mortgage, car payment and MLB.com bill?
***************
Probably not. Plus, I have expensive tastes and a possible gambling problem
Seems like some Young Turks are making their moves this ST on the blog. Some of us senior citizens were up late last night toying with the insurgents like balls of yarn. (Note: I exempt Doreen from the senior citizen moniker. First of all she’s nowhere near the right age and, second, I suspect she looks a lot like Sarah Palin, but without the polarizing political baggage).
Moreover, I, your humble narrator, can assure you that neither I nor Doreen, GB7, SJ44 nor randy l. or any of our thousands of sympathetic lurkers are capitulating to the concept of “superior” knowledge gained from stats over eyeballs and experience. We are funnier, wiser and much more clever than you, even if we don’t know an algorithm from an alligator and don’t know VORP from WARP from Warp Speed.
But, in the spirit of peace and harmony I offer an olive branch. Gut and Stats are two sides of the same coin. We all love baseball and The Yankees.
So, in the immortal words of Rodney King, “can’t we all get along?”
Erica – always OPPC
February 18th, 2010 at 10:57 am
Rich in NJ-
Is it crazy that I am still hoping that Damon calls Cashman and says, “I was silly and wrong and please take me back”???
**************************************
If the AROD opt out drama of a few years ago has taught us anything (and john sterling keeps reminding us) its that you can’t predict baseball..
not that i want this to happen but i could absolutely see a scenario where Nick Johnson tears a hamstring and/or an acl running out a grounder the first exhibition game and cashman is the one that makes the phone call to JD (who is still unemployed) and asks if he’ll take the 6 mill for a year offer….
Erica – always OPPC
February 18th, 2010 at 11:06 am
ARGH! I knew I forgot something. I didn’t get home until 9:45 last night and I was mentally vacant by that point
***********************
LOL I’ve been there!
Crawdaddy
February 18th, 2010 at 10:54 am
“Has anyone asked Mo if he is willing to set up if he can no longer close?”
Rich,
Perhaps, Mo answered your question with his comment that once he starts slipping performance-wise in which he can’t close games as effectively as he’s done the last 13 years then he’ll walk away from baseball. Does that mean he starts going year to year like Pettitte? I don’t know as that question will have to be answered next offseason.
————————————————————
Even if Rivera signs a multi-year contract and he slips beyond what he considers appropriate, I think he’s the type to walk away from the remainder of the contract. Although he wants what he considers fair value in a contract, money doesn’t appear his driving force.
Hmmmm, how badly does Mo need to slip to be considered ineffective. Pretty darn long way. When and if he does slip or begin to slip, unless you can replace him with someone equal to a slipping Mo, you can’t allow him to walk away.
sab
February 18th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Erica – always OPPC
February 18th, 2010 at 10:57 am
Rich in NJ-
Is it crazy that I am still hoping that Damon calls Cashman and says, “I was silly and wrong and please take me back”???
**************************************
If the AROD opt out drama of a few years ago has taught us anything (and john sterling keeps reminding us) its that you can’t predict baseball..
not that i want this to happen but i could absolutely see a scenario where Nick Johnson tears a hamstring and/or an acl running out a grounder the first exhibition game and cashman is the one that makes the phone call to JD (who is still unemployed) and asks if he’ll take the 6 mill for a year offer….
*****
It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if thats what Johnny si waiting for
ica – always OPPC
February 18th, 2010 at 11:08 am
pat
February 18th, 2010 at 11:06 am
Erica
Is unemployment enough to cover your mortgage, car payment and MLB.com bill?
***************
Probably not. Plus, I have expensive tastes and a possible gambling problem
***************************************
if radios are allowed at work why not just get sirius radio or whichever satellite radio company it is that has every MLB game on for the entire year? the added bonus is you get all of the rest of the stations as well…
SJ, the saber people are obsessed with K/9 rates.
I’m not one who dismisses all their stats, but they have gone off the deep end IMO.
“Even if Rivera signs a multi-year contract and he slips beyond what he considers appropriate, I think he’s the type to walk away from the remainder of the contract. Although he wants what he considers fair value in a contract, money doesn’t appear his driving force.”
I haven’t seen that type yet walk away from guarantee millions.
Erin
February 18th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Erica – always OPPC
February 18th, 2010 at 11:06 am
ARGH! I knew I forgot something. I didn’t get home until 9:45 last night and I was mentally vacant by that point
***********************
LOL I’ve been there!
————————————————————
Although this is just too hard to pass up, for the sake of a certain person’s safety, I believe that I’ll withhold any comments.
murphydog – i think you are all just as guilty of assuming that anyone that references advanced statistics in an argument does so at the expense of “observation” which couldn’t be farther from the truth.
do not fear the numbers!
sab
if radios are allowed at work why not just get sirius radio or whichever satellite radio company it is that has every MLB game on for the entire year? the added bonus is you get all of the rest of the stations as well…
*********
I don’t get normal radio reception in the building. I am not sure I would pick up satellite
Balls of yam?
Bob – the problem is you can’t dismiss any stats that are real world measurements. stuff like OPS+, wOBA, wRC+ are theoretical, and can be argued against(although poorly). something like k/9 is a measurement, and irrefutable.
New thread
“And so it begins”
GreenBeret7
February 18th, 2010 at 11:16 am
Although this is just too hard to pass up, for the sake of a certain person’s safety, I believe that I’ll withhold any comments.
***************************
LOL I should have known better! But I appreciate you holding back your comments
murphydog
I’m young? Heh.
I came to advanced stats late in the game. I grew up relying on the standard metrics, mostly counting stats, but as a result of my experience on the net over the last decade, I have been exposed to new ways of looking at many things, including baseball.
When I was in college, and a professor presented new paradigms, I didn’t say: “Stop, I have always looked at the data one way, so I refuse to view it differently.” To the contrary, I learned that adopting new models to view pre-existing ideas increased my knowledge and my ability to think critically.
I don’t understand why baseball is any different.
In the law, for years lawyers did research almost solely through hard copies of books. But once Westlaw came along, would any lawyer worth his salt not bother to become familiar with advanced research techniques? Would he or she still use a typewriter when word processors are so much easier to use?
Finally, the biggest fallacy is that new stats render useless everything that was known about baseball prior to the development of those stats.
Nothing could be further from the truth, but that is what some people who grew up when I did apparently think. Ironically, they are pushing back against an imaginary enemy.
everyone one of you should read Rich in NJ’s post.
and then read it again.
There have been more than a few that walked away in the middle of a contract. Mike Schmidt being one.
Nobody fears the numbers. Applying them incorrectly, as MANY do here, or applying them exclusive of any logic, as SOME do here, are met with opposition.
The CC example I gave from last year and folks believing RBI and wins are “worthless” are two examples.
As someone who has argued arbitration cases over the years, I am certainly not opposed to advanced statistical analysis. I’ve used them, with mixed success, in cases.
Some metrics are more reliable than others. Even the most hardcore numbers cruncher would have to concede that fact.
I just happen to be someone who places equal value to direct, eyeball player evaluation. Mainly because you have to delve deeper into numbers at times to learn about a player.
If it was just about numbers, the games would be played via computer. As Joe Torre would say, you can’t forget there is a heartbeat involved.
I just don’t believe, nor does anybody involved in the business of the game, its the be all, end all of player evaluation.
Aside from that, its all good with me. I always like learning new things in and around the game.
Strikeouts aren’t “irrefutable”. The CC example I referenced is one example of that how its not “irrefutable”.
There is no one stat or one metric that is “irrefutable”. You take it all into consideration when evaluating a player.
If you don’t, you miss. If you are in the business of baseball where misses can sometimes cost millions of dollars, that’s not a risk I recommend one taking.
Stat and gut, two sides of the same coin and I neither fear the numbers nor ignore them. The stats are enlightening and useful, not necessarily dispositive. What I think we are getting away from is trying to persuade, cajole or nudge each other in a fraternal way. That is the effort to which stats and gut should be put, IMO. Persuasion is an art, not a scientific endeavor.
“Because I’m not insane, and because I’m not, I’m unwilling to engage in your silly mind game.
rich in nj-
you are kind of repeating yourself there about the mental illness problem.
i’m not playing games. i’m questioning you, let’s go yankees, stuckey, etc about a new approach of looking at the game that i don’t see the value of in the same way all of you do.
i touched upon it last night with stuckey that i think sabermetrics is more about the business of baseball rather than the playing of the game.
a player doesn’t look to sabermetrics to improve their game. they look to coaches, hard work, and experience to improve their game.
stuckey argued that cashman went to jeter with sabermetric data that he needed to improve his range to his left. he then said because of this jeter improved his range.
he went on to say:
“And that’s really ALL we’ve ever been talking about. Collecting data and spitting it out in ways that tells you something useful about players.”
now if that’s all sabermetrics were, i think that you’d see less resistance.
but in reality, sabermetrics doesn’t just spit out data.
it spits out opinions about the data.
and often before the data.
there is so much dogma with sabermetrics that go way beyond just stats.
this argument about pitching wins is one of those cases. of course it’s true a pitcher like sabathia pitches according to the score with winning the game the most important thing in his mind as sj44 has pointed out.
it’s as if the people involved in sabermetrics are trying to figure out some clever way to win baseball games that no one else knows.
…and once it is accepted that these really smart guys know something that no one else knows, they then should be put in charge of running baseball teams. in this way of thinking, guys like keith law should be the power brokers of baseball.
i and a lot of other people take exception to that. i don’t think you all know something that the rest of us don’t.
that’s what this debate is about.
“There have been more than a few that walked away in the middle of a contract. Mike Schmidt being one.”
Not 15M per year.
Keith Law thinks the Red Sox have a better farm system than Tampa Bay.
In other words, I don’t think anyone looking to hire a Director of Scouting will be dialing his number any time soon.
Cashman didn’t use solely sabermetric data to tell Jeter he needed to improve his range. It was one point of a longer conversation. Not the sole point. Or, even the tipping point for that matter.
Jeter put in the work with his new fitness trainer and Mick Kelleher to re-vamp both his workouts and how he positions himself on the field.
One of things UZR does a poor job of is determining infielders positioning per hitter. Its pretty much impossible to do unless you have the scouting report in front of you. UZR evaluators don’t have that data available to them.
You play certain guys certain ways, and if the ball is hit out of your percieved “zone”, you get docked for that via UZR. Its why the metric is not necessarily reliable when it comes to defensive evaluations.
The crux of Cashman’s discussion with Jeter involved finding ways to develop more range to his left and infield positioning. That’s more a workout and strategic change rather than a sabermetric argument.
““And that’s really ALL we’ve ever been talking about. Collecting data and spitting it out in ways that tells you something useful about players.”
Do you agree statistical analysis does this?
If you do, then I think you’d have to admit it becomes necessary to draw conclusions and make judgments based on the useful things the data told you.
If you don’t reach conclusions and make judgments, then you can’t translate the useful things you learn into productive action in the real world.
With all due respect to randy (whose comments I usually like as I see him as this kind of Sam Malone ex-catcher now small business owner guy who is value-added to this blog), I think people who are opposed to advanced stats sometimes mistake the conclusions for dogma.
Meant to say, “if you don’t get to a ball hit out of your percieved zone, you get docked via UZR”.
My point is, if you are playing a hitter a certain way that makes getting to a ball in your percieved zone impossible, its unfair to get “docked” for it.
Sorry for the typo.
Randy isn’t opposed to advanced stats. He’s opposed to drawing opinions based SOLELY on advanced stats.
“You play certain guys certain ways, and if the ball is hit out of your percieved “zone”, you get docked for that via UZR. Its why the metric is not necessarily reliable when it comes to defensive evaluations.”
Technically UZR should not do this, as there are multiple zones for all positions and UZR assigns a weighted average to each zone depending on how many balls are hit in them, after adjusting for a gazillion factors that influence the number of balls hit into the zone and then.
It turns plays made in those zones to outs, and plays not made in those zones to runs based on a relatively tried and true linear weights regression approach. It then totals up the runs allowed for all players at that position after factoring in a myriad of factors that might skew the numbers one way or another.
So while UZR would not speak directly to positioning, it could be an indicator that positioning is incorrect (as revealed through too many runs allowed based on hits in zones). It could also be an indicator of other problems too, you would need to make further judgments based on other methods to decide.
In other words, UZR is relatively accurate, although it may not be sufficiently precise to identify a specific problem.
For instance Jeter. Jeter’s UZR’s in 2006 and 2007 indicated there was a problem, but DJ’s UZR numbers couldn’t tell you whether the problem lay in decreased range, poor positioning or some other factor.
“My point is, if you are playing a hitter a certain way that makes getting to a ball in your percieved zone impossible, its unfair to get “docked” for it.”
It’s perfectly fair to dock him for it as the hit resulting from the positioning negatively impacts the team. If you were running a team, you’d want to know if you were giving up more hits than expected and UZR would tell you, or assist in telling you.
You could then further investigate to determine why you were giving up too many hits. This might lead to better positioning.
What’s not fair is to conclude absolutely from one set of UZR numbers that the player has limited range. However, if those numbers are repeated you might begin to draw that conclusion. And positioning is part of a player’s overall defensive package – if he positions himself incorrectly the result is overall poorer defense.
sj44-
it is an interesting how jeter and cashman had that talk.
i think both of us would agree that sabermetric metrics could be useful in such a discussion as part of the conversation, but the way you describe it there was much more going on there.
the sabermetric conclusion is generally that jeter is a lousy shortstop. that’s not going to lead to much improvement because sabermetricians seem to want to just make player personnel changes.
it looks like what happened what happened was that jeter took the info and made the decision to improve his range using scouting, , coaching, and hard work to make a change.
also, i don’t think that those close to the game, and by that i mean the players and coaches around him needed sabermetric stats to know that jeter was slow to his left.
“the sabermetric conclusion is generally that jeter is a lousy shortstop. that’s not going to lead to much improvement because sabermetricians seem to want to just make player personnel changes.”
Not so. The UZR-based conclusion was that Jeter was not a good defensive shortstop in 2006 and 2007, but that he markedly improved in 2008 and was actually an average defensive shortstop in 2009.
Wave,
How do you account for positioning if the pitcher throws a bad pitch? In other words, you have positioned the player properly yet, the pitcher threw a pitch in the wrong location, the batter hits it for a hit in a certain zone and the infielder gets docked for it.
The above example rests the blame for the hit more on the pitcher than infielder. Yet, just looking at raw UZR data, it won’t reflect.
Its why my point is, UZR has its limitations and why relying on it solely, as some do, or a lot, as some do, as the basis for basing defensive opinions on players is a slippery slope.
SJ44-
I agree with you that UZR has limitations. All stats do, you have to use them with discretion and I believe you and I see eye to eye on that.
In the case you cited, UZR would “unfairly” assign the blame to the fielder, as you say. The theory would be that as your sample size increased, those sort of mistakes would even out, or that those “mistakes” would occur at approximately the same rate for all players once the number of data points became large enough.
But, of course, you could with some justification reply, “maybe not”. And you’d be right. UZR is probabalistic, it only deals with probabilities and in any one case could be incorrect.
But we live our life making probabilistic judgments all the time. In fact, that’s what we do when we, or some crusty old coach with 60 years in the game, watches the game and makes judgments.
UZR is just trying to make judgments in an organized way, but it’s just one tool in a much bigger toolbox.
Well, The Panamanian Sensational, Mariano Rivera, has arrived in Camp. Wish him the best. Hope that Mo can pitch for few more years.
He is good shape and ready for spring training. He will take one year at the time. Believe that health and location is the key of playing few more years.
Arriba, Mariano, you are the best.