Vazquez asks for early work
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc, Podcast on Feb 21, 2010 
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This winter, Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland came up with a plan to slightly cut back on the spring training workload of their starting pitchers. But that plan was subject to change. Javier Vazquez was scheduled to begin his throwing schedule on Wednesday, but Vazquez asked if he could get some light work in today instead.
“I’ve been throwing in Puerto Rico, a few bullpens, and it’s been like a week and a half since I threw my last bullpen so I wanted to get a feel for it again,” Vazquez said. “They had us for a week without throwing, and they said if you want to throw one of these days, it’s no big deal. I told them I would love to throw today.”
Girardi has stressed that he values communication, especially early in spring training. Vazquez told Eiland that he wanted to pitch today, and the staff had no problem with the decision.
“What works for one guy is not necessarily going to work for everyone else,” Girardi said. “We’re all made up different, so you have to be able to adapt to a guy’s physical personality and his mental personality. I think it’s important. I don’t expect our guys to be robots. You have new guys who come in and their program in the past might have been different and they might have had a lot of success and been comfortable with that. You don’t want to take a guy out of his successful regimen.”
Vazquez threw only fastballs and changeups today, 30 in all, but when he starts throwing breaking balls, he’ll show a slight difference from the pitcher he was during his previous stint with the Yankees.
“I think he’s adding and subtracting from his curveball and his changeup, and he wasn’t able to do that in ’04 here, so that tells you that he’s doing a little more with his repertoire,” said Jorge Posada, who caught Vazquez this morning. “The slider has been something new. He had it but never used it much (in ’04).”
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UPDATE, 3:44 p.m.: Here’s the audio from Vazquez.
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And here’s the audio from Posada, who talked about Vazquez but also answered a question about Zach McAllister — Posada caught McAllister today – and talked about Johnny Damon going to Detroit.
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The picture is of the four catcher’s during this morning’s first bullpen session. From left to right: Posada, Rivera, Montero, Cervelli.
Love that catcher’s picture Chad. Thanks.
And thanks for saving the bystander’s from the baseball civil war ongoing in the previous thread.
Chad-great picture of the catchers!
so I come back from once again shoveling the driveway and some paths for the dogs to see a great ST picture…makes me believe spring is really coming (one of these days!)
I will miss the guys who left, but I am looking forward to seeing Vazquez and Granderson.
great photo chad.
nothing is more fun than catching like that.
spring in the air.
baseballs coming in.
life is good.
Randy-
I could see how you would relate to THAT picture.
To me, what gets lost in all the analysis is the excitement of the games. The raw emotions following Munson’s death and 9/11, the excitement of play off games and unlikely heros like Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone.The thrill of come from behind games. The times you are lucky enough to attend a game and participate in the sights and sounds, not to mention the ball park food and beverages.
Life won’t be good until the first run created stat is up….and the Yanks actually score a real run. Preferably on a Jeter solo homer in the first.
MTU
February 21st, 2010 at 2:46 pm
Randy-
I could see how you would relate to THAT picture.
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Randy still has fond memories of getting his first jock strap and cup on in the correct position.
I’m all for analysis, stats, and sabermetrics. But they’re like different types of food. Let’s just call sabermetrics “Indian food”. Not everyone likes it. Doesn’t make those people less smart, less knowledgable, less flexible. They just don’t like the taste of it. That’s all.
That is a great pic, Chad – and good job by the Yanks not treating each pitcher the same (in other words, as if they are robots).
I like that when Girardi says he encourages communication that he seems to mean it, and not just that, but act on it.
I say Javy’s gonna have a good year for the Yankees this season.
And you can still enjoy life (baseball) without fully appreciating Indian food (sabermetrics). It’s not that you don’t understand the complexities of the spices. It’s that you choose not to.
Doreen
February 21st, 2010 at 3:01 pm
I like that when Girardi says he encourages communication that he seems to mean it, and not just that, but act on it.
I say Javy’s gonna have a good year for the Yankees this season.
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4 starters with at least 15 wins and another with 12 would go a long way in making it back to the post season.
GB7-
Seems doable!
Gb-
Like I said it’s easy when someone keeps supplying you with the straight lines.
Seriously though. It must be a great experience to get to know some very fine pitchers first hand.
The only way I could approach that would have been to have had a celebrity riding in my cab during my college days.
My lone experience with Indian Food ended with me getting an I.V. in my arm on Christmas morning.
“I could see how you would relate to THAT picture.”
mtu-
that was really all i did .
it’s a hard thing to explain why that’s fun because it’s really difficult if you’re doing it for hours which can happen if you’re the bullpen catcher.
as spring training goes on. they will not want posada or cervelli out there in the bullpen that much because of wearing down the good catchers.
they’ll have the minor league guys and the bullpen catcher do the grunt work.
the game to a large degree takes place between the pitcher and the catcher.
in a game when they are throwing well, pitchers are just playing catch with the catcher.
so these kind of workouts lay the foundation for everything that comes afterward.
Ghandi’s revenge?
Indian food is one of those things that you need a knowledgeable person to guide you through the menu.
Randy-
“that was really all i did .”
Which is way more than most of us will ever get to do.
Doreen, a 70-75 win total from the front 5 of the rotation is quite doable, providing there are no major injuries. Lov the way that the rotation and most of the bullpen is setting up. the real goal is health and minimal degression from the offense.
Not really, Doreen – the menus are self-explanatory. It’s not like going to a really authentic chinese restaurant and needing an “expert” to steer you to the right dishes
Doreen,
And you might be surprised. You might actually like something you tried, and will be open to it. But the more pushy the waiter, the less you want it and the more you want a burger.
MTU
February 21st, 2010 at 3:07 pm
Gb-
Like I said it’s easy when someone keeps supplying you with the straight lines.
Seriously though. It must be a great experience to get to know some very fine pitchers first hand.
The only way I could approach that would have been to have had a celebrity riding in my cab during my college days.
————————————————————
No doubt about that, MTU. It’s the only thing about Randy that I envy. It must be nice to face somebody armed with only a fastball and not someone who’s packing heat.
Tom-
Strange Xmas present.
“Randy still has fond memories of getting his first jock strap and cup on in the correct position.”
gb7-
one of the worst nights i ever spent in baseball was when i forgot my cup and caught a semi pro game on cape cod.
all the pitchers were college pitchers and threw well. i was like a mexican jumping bean back there driving the pitchers and the umpire crazy .
i was never so happy to see a game finally end.
GB-
Either way it takes balls.
Betsy -
Really? I’m so intimidated to go into an Indian restaurant. We did eat in one out in Vancouver. I don’t remember what we ate – it was good, but I remember having trouble deciding what to eat.
MTU, It’s a shame because I really liked the food. What I didn’t like was lying on the bathroom floor in the fetal position like Kevin Brown after a bad game.
To this day the smell of Curry makes me gag.
randy l.
February 21st, 2010 at 3:16 pm
“Randy still has fond memories of getting his first jock strap and cup on in the correct position.”
gb7-
one of the worst nights i ever spent in baseball was when i forgot my cup and caught a semi pro game on cape cod.
all the pitchers were college pitchers and threw well. i was like a mexican jumping bean back there driving the pitchers and the umpire crazy .
i was never so happy to see a game finally end.
————————————————————
LMAO. now that’s a real baseball story. That’s what it’s all about. Laughing at yourself and not taking everything so serious. Thanks for the belly laugh, Randy.
And there are more and more Indian restaurants opening in our general area. I don’t know which ones are worth going to, though.
MTU
February 21st, 2010 at 3:17 pm
GB-
Either way it takes balls.
————————————————————
yeah, and even moreso with Randy’s latest revelation.
I can see why some experts say that Montero won’t stay behind the plate. That is a horrible way to catch, it make it almost impossible to block pitches on the outside. Terrible position to throw from as well.
Tom-
Sorry to hear it because I absolutely love spicy food.
I have invented more ways to use hot sauce than Alaskans have to prepare Moose.
Doreen, you should try it again. What is it about Indian food that intimidates you? You might want to try a lunch buffet because then you get to try different things. I also highly recommend getting a mango lassi to go with your food. Even if you don’t get the spicy stuff, yumm – a lassi is good. It’s sort of like a cross between a yogurt a milk shake.
Doreen-
“And there are more and more Indian restaurants opening in our general area. I don’t know which ones are worth going to, though.”
Answer:
The ones that don’t get you feeling like Tom did.
“Seriously though. It must be a great experience to get to know some very fine pitchers first hand.”
mtu-
i really enjoyed playing , and playing for years in a semi pro league on cape cod and one in western ma had me in shape to do the bullpen catching with the pros.
it could have so easily not happened. i literally snuck in with the players on the first day of workouts tryouts at McKechnie Field in bradenton .it was for mlb players only.
it turned out they needed catchers as some didn’t show up that day.
i spoke up and did some fast talking and was told one day only , but stayed with them for two years. for me it was like i died and went to heaven.
i can’t even imagine what sj44′s nephew is feeling with doing all this as a player and major prospect.
next life maybe
Betsy
Oh, ha, ha! We ordered a mango lassi in Vancouver, for my daughter, and she couldn’t drink it. I sipped it. It tasted good, but it was very thick – I’m sure she really just wanted a soda!
What intimidates me is simply not knowing what is what, and I don’t want to order something and end up not liking it. Then there’s the whole, I like spicier than my husband thing (it’s problem in some Chinese places, too.)
Betsy – Romine wasn’t built in a day
February 21st, 2010 at 3:24 pm
Doreen, you should try it again. What is it about Indian food that intimidates you? You might want to try a lunch buffet because then you get to try different things. I also highly recommend getting a mango lassi to go with your food. Even if you don’t get the spicy stuff, yumm – a lassi is good. It’s sort of like a cross between a yogurt a milk shake.
————————————————————
Lord, but, I pity your stomach lining, Betsy.
Randy-
“next life maybe”
Suggestions:
1 Study Indian philosophy
2 Eat more curry
“I can see why some experts say that Montero won’t stay behind the plate. That is a horrible way to catch, it make it almost impossible to block pitches on the outside. Terrible position to throw from as well.”
andy-
what are you looking at?
i haven’t seen montero catch yet and would like to.
Joe Torre had the same boring routine every spring. This is Joe Girardi’s 3rd spring training and each one had seen some changes to mix things up.
Rsndy, have you considered sneaking into Mets camp? You could change your name so nobody on here can laugh at you for being a Met. They need help and a lot of it.
GB, you’re missing out on some delicious food! Actually, it’s not like all Indian food is curry, but that’s the stereotype that people have of it. I love ethnic food – heck, I just love to eat.
Doreen, I think each place makes the lassis at a different thickness. You will just have to go on a lassi run and find your favorite, lol. I know what you mean, but unfortunately (or fortunately), the only way to discover what you’ll like is by trying. That’s why a lunch buffet (which Indian restaurants are known for) is a good idea.
I think Andy must be looking at the photo above and has decided that that’s how Montero receives the pitches.
Betsy-
“heck, I just love to eat.”
So may I assume you are from the “Live to eat” rather than the “Eat to live” school of thought ?
Betsy, I just don’t like spicy, hot food of any sort. It doesn’t appeal to me in the least. I used to make a fortune selling the tabasco sause from my MREs.
Betsy -
The buffet suggestion is a good one. Now, the mission is to find someone brave enough to go with me!
“1 Study Indian philosophy
2 Eat more curry”
mtu-
i may be in luck because i’ve read the bhagavad gita and my gallery manager and her mom are of indian heritage and bring me indian curry dishes all the time.
my favorite thing though is indian sticky pudding.
http://food.sulekha.com/sticky-toffee-pudding.htm
tabasco ***sauce***
GB-
“I used to make a fortune selling the tabasco sause from my MREs.”
I would have been your biggest customer. You could have had all the smokes I owned for just one bottle of hot sauce.
MTU, oh yes – I definitely live to eat and feel sorry for those who simply eat to live and don’t enjoy food.
GB, lots of people don’t like spicy food – they’re weirdos, lol. Just kidding – my mother doesn’t like spicy food, either.
Doreen, let’s have a LOHUD outing to an Indian restaurant.
Randy,I adore sticky toffee pudding (an English dessert, I think) and/or their permutations (I’ve had some similar desserts in restaurants in the U.S even if not exactly like the English original), but I didn’t know Indian restaurants made it.
Um, yum – that sticky toffee pudding looks out of this world. The closest I’ve ever had to it was in a restaurant in Charleston, SC this past October. It was actually called Sorghum cake (or something like that), but it was very similar to toffee pudding and just incredibly delicious; I can taste it right now.
Predicting 70+ wins from a starting 5 is almost always very optimistic.
MTU
February 21st, 2010 at 3:41 pm
GB-
“I used to make a fortune selling the tabasco sause from my MREs.”
I would have been your biggest customer. You could have had all the smokes I owned for just one bottle of hot sauce.
————————————————————
I used to give the stuff away. Nasty, foul taste. They’d pour it on everything from meat to potatoes and eggs. And cannot stand “hot wings”.
Betsy,
Did you see Feinsand’s article on AJ? Not sure if it was linked here or not.
And on February 21st, we’re feeling very optimistic.
I think I’m seeing a pattern developing on the blog.
One “serious baseball thread”. One “inane” thread. One “serious thread”. One “inane” thread.
There’s room for both. But the “inane” ones are more fun, and lower your blood pressure and cholesterol.
With Damon playing left field, Magglio playing right field, Austin Jackson, better have on his running shoes in Center field.
Javy has he right attitude, and he’s motivated good!
M, I was so happy when I read that article. I’ll link it here now – thanks for reminding me!
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....ccess.html
In fact, the 33-year-old has only one regret from his first year in pinstripes: He never got the chance to hit Derek Jeter with one of his trademark whipped cream pies.
“The fact that I didn’t get Jeter really lets me down,” Burnett deadpanned. “I guess I have something to strive for.”
***********
AJ should blame Jeter, who obviously choked last year. I would also kill to see AJ get pied – it stinks that he’d need a complete game for that to happen.
Just updated with audio from Vazquez and Posada.
Betsy – Romine wasn’t built in a day
February 21st, 2010 at 3:42 pm
MTU, oh yes – I definitely live to eat and feel sorry for those who simply eat to live and don’t enjoy food.
GB, lots of people don’t like spicy food – they’re weirdos, lol. Just kidding – my mother doesn’t like spicy food, either.
————————————————————
I guess so, Betsy. My trouble is that I’m allergic to iodine and I have to use iodine free salt, sent from home. I can only take a pinch of salt on anything because I end up short circuiting on the salt. A little pepper is all the seasoning I’ve ever used. Doesn’t explain my dislike for hot food, but, I just never acquired the taste. I guess I just don’t like the burn.
Gb-
Well some people have a “need for speed” but you just don’t “yearn for the burn”. That’s all.
“Randy,I adore sticky toffee pudding (an English dessert, I think) and/or their permutations (I’ve had some similar desserts in restaurants in the U.S even if not exactly like the English original), but I didn’t know Indian restaurants made it.”
betsy-
on special occasions my friend laxmi would make this kind of biryani :
http://www.squidoo.com/hyderabadi-biryani-recipe
.. and then she’d serve a sticky pudding for dessert that looked like the link i showed before.
now i could be wrong that it’s indian, but i wasn’t wrong that it was good
i’ll have to ask her when i get back to cape cod.
and dessert would be stick pudding.
PECOTA has Yank starters at 65 or so wins this coming season.
A bit conservative, I’d say.
No one will even remember Damon come July with the Yanks 10 games in front of the pack.
a prediction and an observation:
1. Mariano Rivera will one day be the Yanks’ pitching coach (he’s a natural-born teacher).
2. Jorge Posada would make for an excellent bench coach.
“through the process of the debate , it’s become clear to me that those of you who were pushing sabermetrics were trying to claim all innovation as your own.”
That’s wholecloth fabrication of the debate – a retroactive attempt to frame it.
See I can quote you verbatim claiming the sport has had no innovation in years. You can’t even find quote you can take out of context suggesting anyone said new stats were the game’s sole innovation.
If you think you can, please do. If you can’t or won’t, stand up be a big person and acknowledge it.
“gb7 has been having some very advanced technologically advanced medical imaging take place that is helping him out.
are you saying that’s sabermetrics?”
Nope.
“but you and others have been trying to put all technological innovation like this under your sabermetric umbrella.”
I’ve done the exact opposite. You just didn’t understand that.
But I’ll suggest this once again. Back up your claim with a fact.
Produce even ONE passage that supports this claim?
“sorry, but that’s totally a bogus thing to do.”
You’re right. It would be. The problem you’re facing right now is, no one did.
And here comes the part when you find something, anything, in the post to respond to, other than simple proof of what you claim, which should be exceedingly easy to do IF it existed, and you have every motivation to provide.
3 … 2 … 1 …
I loved the whole thing. Preaching to the heathens. Reminded me of Saturday mornings and the JW canvassers.
On another note Innovations and Yankees. There’s Minnesota working hard using all their skills and who do they play? The Yankees, (add in 1000 lb gorilla at this point). Innovations? Don’t need no stinking innovations. 200 mil budget – Thromp
randy
Funny stories about sneaking into camp and forgetting your cup. I think you’d be a fun guy to have a beer with
I’ll go out on a limb:
Jeter manages and the trio is complete.
lets go yankees
February 21st, 2010 at 3:44 pm
Predicting 70+ wins from a starting 5 is almost always very optimistic.
————————————————————
nobody predicted 70 wins. It was only said that 70-75 from the front 5 would go a long way to getting to the post season. They got 55 last year from the front 4 and that was with Chamberlain only pitching well enough to survive and another 10 wins from a group mixture of emergency starters and castoffs.
And here comes the part when you find something, anything, in the post to respond to, other than simple proof of what you claim, which should be exceedingly easy to do IF it existed, and you have every motivation to provide.
3 … 2 … 1 …
———————————————-
That Randy is superhuman, they’re coming at him in shifts.
” My trouble is that I’m allergic to iodine”
aha, we have found gb7′s Kryptonite .
“PECOTA has Yank starters at 65 or so wins this coming season.
A bit conservative, I’d say.”
Is that for all starters or just the 5 that will start the season in the rotation?
Looking at last year Sabathia had 19, Joba had 9, Burnett 13, and Pettitte 14. Wang only contributed 1 win then the rest of the starts came from guys like Mitre and Gaudin.
The starting 5 that broke camp with the team gave us 56 wins and the team won over 100 games. 65 isn’t all that conservative IMO
“That Randy is superhuman, they’re coming at him in shifts.”
stuckey better be careful or i’ll make stuckey pudding out of him.
PECOTA has Yank starters at 65 or so wins this coming season.
A bit conservative, I’d say.”
—————————————
Not a problem at this time – They’ll update that at least three more times. Third place anybody.
“stuckey better be careful or i’ll make stuckey pudding out of him.”
I got the milk, mixing bowl and hand mixer.
Let’s rumble.
I’ve been paying attention to the PECOTA updates and I’ve not really been impressed. I know they work hard on that stuff but they are making pretty dumb mistakes. SG over at replacement level blog has found two and corrected those guys both times.
Honestly though, projection systems are kind of silly. I look at them as something to waste time with before spring training starts. Now that we are getting legitimate news who cares what PECOTA or chone figgins has to say about us
“Funny stories about sneaking into camp and forgetting your cup. I think you’d be a fun guy to have a beer with”
patrick-
the problem when i drink beer is i think i’m funny , but others sometimes don’t.
especially on cape cod with red sox fans.
stuckey better be careful or i’ll make stuckey pudding out of him.
——————————
They remind me of spaghetti westerns – The Mexican bandidos.
Comes the trumpets – Charge! They jump on their horses and ride off in all directions.
GB,
You said 70-75 wins is quite doable from the starting 5.
All I was saying was that anyone having it in their mind that this starting 5 will win 70+ is being very optimistic given how these things normally turn our.
Getting 70+ wins from you starting 5 is quite an accomplishment for a team.
I/m not so sure about that, Randy. I always figured that you must have been fully tanked to spend months trumpeting the virtues of Livan hernandez. Now, I find out that may have been the real you. I’m shocked. SHOCKED, I tell you.
Jeter manages and the trio is complete.
****************
Jeter has always said he wants to be an owner, not a manager.
For a real chuckle, check out PECOTA’s projection for Mo.
Can’t wait to hear the explanation for that one.
lgy -
I’m the one who said it sounded doable. I think it’s perfectly okay to spout optimistic nonsense during spring training. Everything starts fresh and new and anything is possible. Not talking probabilities, just possibilities. If you take that away, what’s the point of spring training????
Doreen,
I was not trying to start an argument. I have no problem with people spouting “optimistic nonsense” if that is what they enjoy doing right now with no baseball. I recognize that it is incredibly difficult to predict starter wins before the season.
I was just pointing out that it is very optimistic to give some perspective as to the number being tossed around.
patrick-
here’s baseball/beer story i’ve told before on the blog:
“one time , i introduced a player who is now a triple a manager to another player who was my roommate during pre season workouts and after practice we went to a florida seaside restaurant and bar for a late lunch and 105 drafts later- yes that was the bar tab- we managed to make it back to the hotel.
the next day the present day triple manager knocked on my room and said we have to go get the alcohol out of our system. we got the other guy , our left fielder, and went to the fleld three hours before anyone else.
we ran foul pole to foul pole in 90 degree humidity for two hours with some ice cold showers thrown in a few times for shock value to the system.
clete boyer our manager had come as he always did early to the clubhouse before anyone else and watched us from time to time from the clubhouse doorway smoking a cigarette in his yankee shorts and tshirt( not a yankee winterball team team but clete had yankee stuff underneath his uniform always) .
me being a rookie type thought that clete was going to be real impressed with our early workouts.
after our final pole runs left us dripping in sweat we went into the clubhouse where clete greeted us with ” rough night boys ? ”
clete had seen it all and he knew exactly what we were doing. the other two players started and had a good game and i managed to catch decent bullpen. but does a player really want to burn the candle on all ends like that? ”
actually this story was originally prompted by someone wondering about joba’s conditioning and possible off field activities.
hopefully joba has moved beyond such frivolities though they sometimes are a factor in the game
SJ,
I am not here to debate the merits of PECOTA but to be fair they have admitted on numerous occasions that their system simply does not work for Mo. He is a once in a lifetime and maybe a once-ever player. They have actually referred to him as “otherworldly.”
Mo is the definition of statistical outlier.
lgy -
Just didn’t want to go down that path, you know? A little skittish, is all.
(Almost afraid to use numbers today!)
How optimistic was it when NYYs front 5 won 77 when one of those pitchers was Jeff Weaver and he only won 7? what you had was four front line starters, which is what NYY has now.
Or maybe the system is more hype than substance.
There have been so many errors picked up by “common folk” with their projections, it’s hard to take it seriously.
The outlier nonsense is an excuse when an especially ridiculous projection, like Mo’s for this year, is published.
You can’t tout a system then excuse it’s mistakes and/or inaccuracies as outliers.
Then again, they will produce three more sets of
projections to cover their bases so they can say they were “right” at some point during the season.
But they predicted the ’08 Rays!
Respect the PECOTA!
SJ,
Like I said I did not come here to debate the merits of PECOTA as I do not really care.
But, are you really asserting that having a statistical outlier invalidates the entire system?
They have been way off on Mo for a while now and given the system they use it is very very easy to understand why.
GB,
Just because something happened does not mean that is was no initially optimistic to predict it.
You throw enough darts at a board, you will eventually hit a bullseye.
Doesn’t make one a champion dart player.
PECOTA should’ve run their models more times before releasing it. To release the projections, then tweak it, then release it, then tweak it again really takes away the illusion that it’s some sort of objective “scientific” process. (maybe not the right word, whatever it they base their work on)
I was kidding SJ.
When the first PECOTA came out this year some blogs used the ’08 Rays as the reason why it mattered.
It is kind of a cool gig when you think about it. When you get it wrong it’s the systems fault because the data was off. But when you get it right, you get to go on the t.v. and talk about how smart you are!
I’m saying it’s not a “system” at all.
It’s more marketing than science and I think it’s of little relevence and not something to be taken seriously.
It’s not just Mo’s projection. It’s all of the errors they make.
It’s more of a marketing tool for geeks to get lathered up about than serious and legitmate science.
lets go yankees
February 21st, 2010 at 4:39 pm
GB,
Just because something happened does not mean that is was no initially optimistic to predict it.
————————————————————
Oh!!! You mean like trying to predict what could happen if? Or what should have happened if?
I guess I must have missed the post where someone was touting the merits of PECOTA as a serious and legitimate science.
If the discussion of PECOTA is simply a new discussion, have at it.
If its designed to somehow discredit advanced statistical analysis, it misses the mark, because it’s isn’t analysis, it’s projection, which isn’t the same thing.
I have little to no regard for projection systems. Prediction is an inherently unreliable pursuit. Advancing understanding of what has already happened, is a much more accurate and productive discipline.
So it looks like we’re mostly all in agreement. PETCOTA exists for entertainment value only.
What will be fun is to see how long some people choose to ignore that we’re all obviously in complete agreement.
Tom,
I know you were, no worries.
Let’s go,
you weren’t around when the initial rankings came out?
Some folks were in a panic when the Yankees were picked third? It was pretty comical.
SJ,
I honestly do not remember if I was around. Personally, PECOTA is mildly entertaining.
I agree though that anyone panicking about the rankings is driving themselves off the wall over nothing.
Yankee fans in particular are crazy to panic because of all their players who have defied the test of time.
I don’t think panic’s the right word. Scoffing was more like it. No one seriously thought the Yankees were only going that few games.
posada’s audio was interesting.
when you listen to posada talk about pitchers , it really dispels the notion that he doesn’t understand pitchers.
the yankees would be really lucky to have posada as a catching or bullpen coach but it’ll never happen because he’s been such a star.
i especially liked the distinction he made with vazquez adding and taking off velocity on his pitches.
this is really advanced pitching . posada said vazquez couldn’t do that his first time around .
this kind of adjustments makes it very hard on hitters because it upsets their timing.
i’m kind of getting excited about vazquez.
he could be really good this year.
i mean really good.
randy,
I stepped out for a bit but I just read your story. Loved it haha
This is why I really like this blog, you get a mix of people with varying degrees of baseball experience. You have guys like CB and Wave Your Hat that understand statistics and player value inside and out then you’ve got a guy like randy who knew some of these guys and was a freaking bullpen catcher (talk about a dream come true)! Awesome stuff randy, I look forward to more stories from you as the season progresses
Randy/SJ: Do you guys think that if he wanted to, Posada would make a fine major league manager? He seems to me to have the aptitude. The desire is another story. Seems like he has the Pinella drive and fire…that he isn’t afraid to put things bluntly to players that screw up. On the other hand, I don’t see that quality in Jeter, though they are both intelligent players and know the game inside out. Jeter is more executive material.
SJ44,
While I’m not as down on PECOTA as you, I do think they have fallen victim to their own hype. In years past they had Nate Silver who really knew his stuff. I’m not saying BP doesn’t know what they are doing but they are making a lot of glaring mistakes this year so it’s tough to take them seriously.
And once again, these projection systems are simply models. Numbers in and numbers out. Most of the time thats not a very good way to judge a very human game. Your example of Mo is a good one. The fact is, nobody has done what he’s doing right now so it’s impossible for any system to predict what he will do in the future.
PECOTA is fundamentally an individual player projection system. It takes an interesting approach – it looks for players similar to the player it is projecting, based on statistical modeling, and projects that player based on the career curve of those similar players at 7 different levels of probability. It has been relatively successful at doing that.
The problem is when you jump from projecting what a player will do next year to projecting what the player’s team will do next year and projecting what all teams will do next year. That requires making assumptions about playing time which requires a pretty detailed knowledge of each individual team, and then making educated guesses based on that.
Which introduces huge uncertainties into the projections which means nobody should get to worked up about how PECOTA, or any projection system, projects standings. But nobody should think the people who do these projections don’t know that, it’s a “for what it’s worth” kind of thing.
That said, 2005 through 2008 PECOTA had an average error of under 5 wins. Last year, it was worse, over 8. But before you dismiss it out of hand, how many people think they could guess the 2010 final standings next year with an average error of less than 5 wins?
It sounds a lot easier to do than it actually is.
if Vazquez just pitches the way he did with the white sox he’s gonna win a ton of games and if he pitches like he did last year he has a chance to win 20 on this team. Pretty exciting when you add that to what they already have.
Vazquez went to his slider 5% of the time in 2004. In 2009, 20%. Maybe the slider is the difference maker…
In 2006 (15.5%) 2007 (17.6%) 2008 (22.8%). Hmmm… He used his slider quite a bit in 2006-2008, but he was not very good in 2006 and 2008. His ERA in 2006 was 4.84. His ERA in 2008 was 4.67. Maybe the slider is not the difference maker…
BUT! In 2006 his FIP was 3.86. In 2008 his FIP was 3.74. AND, in 2007 and 2009 his FIP was right in line with his ERA.
Something is not adding up in 2006 and 2008. Maybe having Jermaine Dye out in RF had something to do with it…
posada used the phrase ” adding and subtracting” with vazquez’s cureball and change up.
this kind of changing speeds is advanced pitching because it is easier to just throw a pitch at full velocity.
taking something off isn’t easy mechanically to do.
hughes and joba would have a very difficult time doing it.
to use a golf analogy , it’s easy to swing a full 5 iron, but to hit one on purpose ten yards less or twenty yards less is much more difficult.
“His ERA in 2006 was 4.84. His ERA in 2008 was 4.67.”
If he stays healthy and makes most of his scheduled starts, if he pitched around a 4.50, I’ll take it.
Congratulations, SJ44, on your nephew being ranked the number 2 prospect in the Pirates organization by BP. That’s really something!
Randy,
Exactly…that’s why I carry three wedges in my bag. Anything less than a full swing and my shank percentage skyrockets. Adding and subtracting takes experience and feel and Javy has drastically improves in that area since his last stint with the yanks
GB7: unrelated to our prior discussions, I certainly would not want Posada to be our manager. I don’t think I’d want anybody managing this team if they think a super-high-end SP prospect “belongs” in the bullpen without even getting a chance to grow as a starter. That kind of shortsightedness suggests to me that he might be a very poor manager
And you’re sticking to that even if Posada is proven correct? Or, will you flipflop?
Stuckey
I didn’t think he played well defensively in 2008. I didn’t see any significant improvement.
—
SJ44,
Earlier, in trying to debunk defensive metrics or whatever, he claimed that Jeter was horrible again in 2008 despite the metrics and articles on him changing his workout routine to improve his defense.
So I did a really quick google and found these Sj44 quote from 2008 (june and August) I have links but I think it made my comment await moderation
“Jeter’s SS play has improved dramatically this year. There is no reason for him to move.”
“Ironically, he’s having his best defensive year in 3 years at SS. He hasn’t been the same hitter since he got his hand smashed in by Cabrera in June.”
“Especially since Jeter has not had a bad year defensively at shortstop.”
So SJ44, did you watch a bunch of tape from 2008 and decide retroactively that he was terrible?
I’m just curious what made you change your mind. Was it just that the argument happened to be against defensive metrics so you just wanted to try to discredit them a bit?
Also Zach Greinke and Brian Bannister are tapping into the sabermetric side of the game:
With prodding from rotation mate Brian Bannister, Greinke has also tapped his cerebral side. He’s become more conscious of fielding-independent pitching, park factors and other sabermetric data in the effort to gain every possible edge.
For example, Greinke is more inclined to throw his riding, four-seam fastball at Kauffman Stadium, where outfielders have a lot of room to roam, and to rely more on his two-seamer to induce ground balls in assorted road venues. He has seen the light of modern-day statistical analysis.
“We’re messing with everything, just trying to be the best pitchers we can be,” Bannister said. “I’m more of an average talent guy, and I’m trying to extract every ounce of talent that I have. And then you look at Zack: He’s got a lightning bolt for an arm, creativity and the body control to execute all his pitches.
“He’s not just a dumb jock out there. There’s a brain behind it. When he starts using this [statistical] stuff, the sky is the limit. It’s like fine-tuning a race car.”
–
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....BHeadlines
LOL. Posada would be a great manager.
Most catchers make good managers because they understand the entire game.
Add to it Posada’s passion, and he would be excellent manager material.
Listen to him talk about pitching. The guy knows what he is talking about.
Thanks Wave. It’s nice hype but, thankfully, he still sees himself as an underdog. Keeps his work ethic at a high level.
“Randy/SJ: Do you guys think that if he wanted to, Posada would make a fine major league manager?”
gb 7-
i think he’d make an excellent manager, but i doubt very much he’d want to for quite a while.
he’s made way too much money to need the job. posada knows way more about the game than his detractors will admit to.
he’s one of those players who most won’t know how good he was until he’s gone.
i could see him being a yankee manager when his kids have grown up.
mattingly took a similar approach waiting until the right time to come back to the game.
GB7: I believe that if by age 30 joba has not made any strides as a starter, then he should go to the bullpen. I don’t think that he should go before that, and that he makes it to that age (or somewhere close) without making strides as a starter (which isn’t going to happen) will not have meant that he should have been put in the pen earlier, it’ll just mean that it’s time to give up on him. Giving up earlier than that is just plain old stupid. You can find relievers anywhere. Just look at aceves. Quality starters who don’t cost you more than $10+ million a year, on the other hand, are very, very rare.
so in other words, posada can’t be proven correct, because his remark was wrong when he said it. just because somebody says something that’s unlikely to happen will happen and then it does doesn’t make them right. It makes them a lucky guesser.
the thing about posada is that the only real value he brings to the table is a very good bat that is elite for his position, while simultaneously being CAPABLE of catching. He’s far from a terrific catcher in any non-offensive sense of the word. Which is no knock on Jorge. He’s a great hitter, and I think a vital part of our lineup, and I love the guy, but I definitely would not want him making decisions for our team.
What changed my mind was talking to scouts and then going back and seeing some games based on what I was told. After review, while better than 2007, it didn’t seem to me that his play concurred with his rating.
2009 was different. He was outstanding last year.
I don’t need to discount UZR. Most teams don’t see it as a reliable defensive metric as you do.
Just wanted to drop in and say hi to everyone. Been really busy but looking forward to a great year for New York Yankees baseball!
NYY isn’t going to give Chamberlain another 6 years to prove he’s a starter. If he’s in the rotation in April and he starts pawing the mound, walking around and shaking off every other pitch, he’ll be in the bullpen. NYY, Girardi and Posada will neither have the time or patience to put up with that crap again.
“the thing about posada is that the only real value he brings to the table is a very good bat that is elite for his position, while simultaneously being CAPABLE of catching.”
pete-
have you listened to the whole audio above that chad took the time to put on the blog so we could listen to it and get some info about today’s workouts.
if you haven’t listened to it why are you wasting our time commenting about posada ?
GB7: perhaps that was hyperbole. I’d give him certainly until the end of 2012, though, and that’s just to show improvement. Any pitcher who can throw 200 league average or better innings is more valuable than almost any reliever in the game, Mo included. Of course, I believe that people will realize by August just how good Joba can be, and come 2011 he’ll be a legitimate #2 starter who is still improving. But that is, at this point, just conjecture.
randy l.
February 21st, 2010 at 5:35 pm
“Randy/SJ: Do you guys think that if he wanted to, Posada would make a fine major league manager?”
gb 7-
i think he’d make an excellent manager, but i doubt very much he’d want to for quite a while.
————————————————————
Yeah, that was the desire to manage when I said “desire”. I suppose that he might wait until the oldest is grown up some, and not sure he’d take just any job. Maybe he starts as a base coach and moves on to bench coach. If he can talk Rivera into being his pitching coach, he’ll jump on it, I think. Jeter and Pettitte can buy a piece of the team.
“Did Scott Boras sacrifice Johnny Damon for Matt Holliday?
Some rival agents and club executives say the answer is, “yes.”
Their theory is this: Boras wanted to leave open the possibility that the Yankees might sign Holliday, his most prominent free-agent client.
Therefore, he declined to engage in serious early negotiations with the Yankees over Damon, who plays the same position as Holliday – left field.”
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....uzz-021510
gb7-
i think he’d jump right into being a bench coach and then right into managing the yankees.
i don’t think he’d go to another team to manage.
pure speculation on my part of course.
randy: no doubt posada knows quite a bit about catching and pitching, but so do all catchers. It’s Jorge’s mentality that worries me most – of course I don’t know the guy at all, so most of this is baseless conjecture, but he strikes me as the fiery, stubborn type who might not take too well to being told he is wrong (kind of reminds me of somebody else…hmmm) about things. A manager, just like a GM, needs to be constantly on the lookout for ways to improve his thought processes. It might just be the joba bullpen comment, but Jorge strikes me as somebody who could be inflexible on things like that, and I wouldn’t want a manager like that.
Also, JoeG is only what, 5 years older than posada? I love Girardi’s managing. No need to get rid of it.
randy: I could see him being a good bench coach. I just want a manager who is willing to take others’ ideas. The fact that Joba constantly had to shake Jorge off last year had a lot to do with Jorge’s stubbornness, too. Seniority =/= veracity. I’m fine with Jorge sticking around, just as long as there’s somebody ranking above him to say no when he’s wrong. I’m quite certain that Joe G listens to people when they raise objections. I’m not as certain Posada would. But again, I don’t know the guy at all, so I could be totally wrong. Just an impression.
As long as posada hires someone else to teach the catchers to block the plate I think he would be a fine coach/manager. He can’t or doesn’t do that to save his life.
Has Posada’s PQ (personality quotient) been sabermetrically derived to determine that the snippets of behavior fans see on TV would necessarily make him a poor manager years after his playing days are over?
“no doubt posada knows quite a bit about catching and pitching,…”
pete-
since you have listened to posada talking about vazquez adding and subtracting off of his change up and curveball , don’t you have some sense that posada may know a little more than you thought.
did you even know what adding and subtracting were with pitches?
it’s not something that’s counted as” a little was taken off pitch ”
you won’t find it anywhere.
it’s an art rather than a science.
i’m not sure you understand the art of pitching or the art of catching.
do you have any idea how vazquez adds and subtracts on his curveball and change?
because i don’t.
it’s beyond my knowledge of the game.
now it’s probably beyond your understanding of pitching too. but jorge seems to understand it. do you think just maybe he may know things you haven’t even thought of ?
I want Posada to run the training program. To be able to compete at this hight level while catching 140 games a year is unbelievable. Talk about an outlier.
pete
February 21st, 2010 at 5:36 pm
GB7: I believe that if by age 30 joba has not made any strides as a starter, then he should go to the bullpen. I don’t think that he should go before that, and that he makes it to that age (or somewhere close) without making strides as a starter (which isn’t going to happen) will not have meant that he should have been put in the pen earlier, it’ll just mean that it’s time to give up on him. Giving up earlier than that is just plain old stupid. You can find relievers anywhere. Just look at aceves. Quality starters who don’t cost you more than $10+ million a year, on the other hand, are very, very rare.
———————————————————-
i will give you that talent like joba & hughes need to be given every chance as a starter until all doubts are removed but not til the age of 30
imo that is way to long
imo 26 yrs old is enough unless the pitcher came up late
i think we give him this whole year
New post, with audio from Girardi.
Bo ,
It is pretty remarkable that Jorge has been able to catch that many games for this long and still hit the way he does. We may see just how remarkable when Vmart attempts a full season behind the dish.
“As long as posada hires someone else to teach the catchers to block the plate I think he would be a fine coach/manager.”
blake-
good hitting cathcers are told to “ole” the tag at home plate because they are too valuable to get hurt in collisions.
if posada started blocking the plate like scoscia used to the yankees would stop him immediately.
you might want to ask sj44 about this. i doubt very much that tony sanchez will be taught to sacrifice his body at the plate because he has too much offensive potential.
Randy,
I agree that Posada shouldn’t be blocking the plate mike scosica style because he’s too valuable as a hitter but he’s not particulary great at the sweep either. If you’re going to go with that technique you still need to let the ball travel and stay close enough that you can reach the far side of the plate. I’ve noticed that more often than not Posada goes and gets the ball way out in front of the plate and then can’t reach the runner.
Its nit picking but its driven me crazy over the years. He’s a great player though and should be in the HOF for all the other things he does well IMO
Randy,
I agree that Posada shouldn’t be blocking the plate mike scosica style because he’s too valuable as a hitter but he’s not particulary great at the sweep either. If you’re going to go with that technique you still need to let the ball travel and stay close enough that you can reach the far side of the plate. I’ve noticed that more often than not Posada goes and gets the ball way out in front of the plate and then can’t reach the runner.
Its nit picking but its driven me crazy over the years. He’s a great player though and should be in the HOF for all the other things he does well IMO
Maybe Posada goes out to get the ball because of the Yankees’ howitzer armed outfielders are off-line and the ball isn’t carrying far enough.
GB,
I’m not talking about offline or bad throws, I’m talking about ones where a play could be made. Come on now you can’t believe that Posada is good on plays at the plate. I love the guy but that is the one thing about him that causes me to throw things occasionally.
awesome design! Katharina