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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Notes from Thursday

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Feb 25, 2010 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Outfielders

Joe Girardi more or less gave Alex Rodriguez one day off — or at least a DH day — every week last season. The days off were scheduled ahead of time, and Girardi said he doesn’t remember Rodriguez ever asking to rest.

“If we feel he needs a day once a week (this year), we’ll give him a day,” Girardi said. “If we think he can go more, we’ll go more.”

The one thing that might go overlooked about Rodriguez’s press conference this afternoon is the fact he said he’s healthy. He’s bounced back from his hip injury even better than his doctors expected, and come opening day, that might be the biggest difference between this year’s Yankees and last year’s Yankees.

Here’s the Girardi audio from today.

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Gardner

• The Yankees will continue to have live batting practice the next three days. Almost every pitcher in camp will throw BP twice. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez and Andy Pettitte will throw BP once. It’s still unclear whether Mariano Rivera or Damaso Marte will throw BP, but it seems unlikely.

• Andy Pettitte and Chris Garcia threw bullpen sessions this morning. Garcia skipped his previous bullpen because of a tight elbow but said he felt “really good” after today’s.

• Reggie Jackson was here today.

• I know I can’t complain to anyone up in the city, but it was unseasonably chilly in Tampa today. Temperatures were in the 40s. “It’s really not all bad to have days like this, because obviously we’re going to have them in April and May,” Girardi said. “You’ve got to get used to the colder weather, but we got everything in. There were no problems.”

• The list posted in the clubhouse said Brandon Laird would take ground balls at second base during batting practice. Instead, he took them at first. Makes much more sense.

• Kei Igawa said he has not been told that he’ll be working as a reliever when the season starts. He expects to work as a reliever in spring training, but still expects to start when if he opens the season in Scranton.

You might not recognize him with the hair, but that’s Brett Gardner signing autographs in the smaller picture. The picture at the top is of the outfielders going through fielding drills. The wind was a beast, blowing the ball all over the place.

Comments

comments

 

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119 Responses to “Notes from Thursday”

  1. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 6:35 pm

    Rich in NJ, The only way Gardner sees the 2 hole is after he pinch runs for Nick Johnson ( as per your lineup )…As for the sake of arguement, that’s all that we’ve done this offseason….Almost just for the sake of it, as if to prove one’s point as the truth and only but the truth….

  2. teddy February 25th, 2010 at 6:37 pm

    chad we have fun in 40 degree, i just got 26 inches of snow, plus more, want to change places

  3. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 6:40 pm

    Why is NJ not walking much in front of Tex?

    NJ is not like Swisher. He is a high average hitter as well.

    Tex is also not the first good hitter or even excellent hitter he has batted in front of.

    He hit in front of Zimmerman for the vast majority of his time with the Nationals in 2009 and posted a .408 OBP. He spent the rest of the season with the Marlins hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez and posted a .477 OBP.

  4. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 6:40 pm

    Pat M

    I really don’t have a set lineup in mind yet. I want to see how Granderson looks. For example, most FAs who have come to NY have struggled in April. It may be in his best interests to start the season with him batting lower in the lineup and then move him up if/when he makes the adjustment.

    He may be the best choice to bat 2nd v. RHP. If he hits LHP decently, then leave him there.

    If he doesn’t, I wouldn’t rule out batting Swisher 2nd, or maybe even Cano or NJ.

    My point is simply that while speed is great, it’s not the most important factor in constructing a lineup.

  5. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 6:41 pm

    That’s some great news about Garcia. I’d guess that tomorrow will be a big test, to see how it feels a day later.

    Having Laird taking grounders at 2nd might not be all that bad. He’s got some good instructors for 1st, 3rd and 2nd base. I’d still like to see Laird and Romine get some outfield time. That would add a lot of bat and flexibility to the manager.

  6. Doreen February 25th, 2010 at 6:43 pm

    I’m not guessing at the lineup yet. I’d like to see NJ and Grandy in ST. Even though Girardi and Cash have said NJ is in the 2 hole, we know that these things are fluid and nothing is ever written in stone.
    Pat M -
    You talked a bit about having a consistent lineup everyday. My question is, if whatever changes Girardi makes in the lineup are consistent (moving 2 batters when certain lefties are pitching, for instance), wouldn’t that be an acceptable situation? Meaning, no random crazy lineups just to switch things up, but well-though out, reasoned alternate lineups based on matchups, etc.

  7. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 6:47 pm

    “I’d think that such an intelligent advanced stats believer like you would know that a 76% steal rate is extremely good. Even old time stat lovers realize that.”

    —————————

    A 76% steal rate is not “extremely good,” especially in front of 2 of the best hitters in the game.

  8. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 6:48 pm

    Doreen, i see all or most of the lineup changes happening in the bottom end of the order…Of course you want a speed guy hitting 9th as he serves as a second leadoff hitter…Also when you play the few interleague games, you don’t need to realter the set 1-7 guys as much….Ballplayers are creatures of habit, too much day to day changes can alter that delicate mental balance and their daily approach to the game…..

  9. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 6:53 pm

    Lets go Yankees….Not great but still, you now have a runner in scoring position 76 % of the time, with Mark & Alex only a basehit away from an rbi hit

  10. Phil the Thrill February 25th, 2010 at 6:54 pm

    You want to be about 80% or better if you’re considering life as a high volume base stealer.

  11. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 6:57 pm

    Spring Training would give Girardi a somewhat decent idea of how Granderson and Cano will perform in the #2 and #5 slots, but, a string of 40 to 45 game in season stretch won’t destroy the season.

  12. wave your hat February 25th, 2010 at 7:00 pm

    NJ would get his walks if he hit in front of Ruth and Gehrig. Getting on base trumpps speed, especially when you would lose HR bat in the middle of the order and force a platoon in the 2 hole otherwise.

  13. m February 25th, 2010 at 7:01 pm

    Talking lineups?

    Didn’t Cashman say NJ was the 2 hitter?

    I would keep it like that until (if) it becomes a problem. Having a patient hitter in front of Tex & Alex will just drive a pitcher nuts.

    I like having a Granderson’s power down the lineup a bit.

    Arranging Posada, Granderson, Cano, Swisher will be the challenge.

    If Posada didn’t have such a good bat, I would bury him 8th, that way Cervelli could just slide right in. But he does, so you can’t.

  14. Randy February 25th, 2010 at 7:02 pm

    C’mon Country, we’re getting pounded with snow here in Scranton and you’re going to complain about a cool morning in Tampa? How quickly you forget!

  15. blake February 25th, 2010 at 7:02 pm

    I think Granderson should hit wherever he will have better sabermetrics.

  16. Phil the Thrill February 25th, 2010 at 7:02 pm

    OBP Jesus should bat second.

  17. m February 25th, 2010 at 7:06 pm

    20+30+20+30=100 HR

    Conservative estimate for your #5-8. :shock:

  18. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 7:07 pm

    Pat M.
    February 25th, 2010 at 6:53 pm

    Lets go Yankees….Not great but still, you now have a runner in scoring position 76 % of the time, with Mark & Alex only a basehit away from an rbi hit

    ——————————–

    You are also giving away a free out in front of 2 of the best hitters in baseball 1 in every 4 times you attempt to get in scoring position.

    Giving away outs in general hurts. Giving away outs in from of Tex and Alex is hurts baaaaad.

  19. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 7:12 pm

    Let me guess, you’re against the sac bunt late in the game to move the tying or winning run into scoring position ….Just a dose of reality guys, look for Nick Johnson to hit around .280, with 115 k’s and lot’s of dp’s….He’s going to disappoint many here if you don’t see him in a realistic light….

  20. m1kew February 25th, 2010 at 7:14 pm

    Crawford, Rays table contract talks until end of season

    http://tampabay.com/blogs/rays/node/25095

  21. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 7:14 pm

    blake

    “I think Granderson should hit wherever he will have better sabermetrics.”

    You think where a batter hits significantly changes his stats?

  22. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 7:16 pm

    Pat M.

    “Let me guess, you’re against the sac bunt late in the game to move the tying or winning run into scoring position ….”

    It depends who on the batter is.

    “Just a dose of reality guys, look for Nick Johnson to hit around .280, with 115 k’s and lot’s of dp’s….”

    But probably with a > .400 OBP.

  23. blake February 25th, 2010 at 7:17 pm

    That was a joke Rich,

    The lineup will work itself out. Its gonna be good no matter how Girardi fills it out.

  24. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 7:21 pm

    blake

    Oh…I suck.

  25. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 7:21 pm

    Rich in NJ…..You’re expecting alot from Nick…..I see him more like Swisher, only Johnson will get 3-4 more hits per 100 ab’s……

  26. Bodhisattva - Destiny Wears Pinstripes February 25th, 2010 at 7:23 pm

    Oh c’mon, Rich. I know I’ve joked about your humor meter, but Blake’s light-hearted mockery couldn’t have escaped you – you ignored it and tried to set him up.

    He just refused to take the bait. that’s all.

  27. MTU February 25th, 2010 at 7:24 pm

    Cash said the other day that NJ bats 2nd.

    Let the spring decide some things:

    #5 starter

    #5 hitter

    Girardi likes to work matchups.

    Lineup changes to adapt to the situation, and player’s current production.

    Girardi has a HUGE stat book.

  28. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 7:24 pm

    I didn’t say that 76% marks a “high volumn base stealer, but, most teams consider 75% to be very good.

    It makes little sense that a 40% caught stealing rate by catchers is extremely good to great but a 60% steal rate for a runner is a failure. The math adds up, but, the idea doesn’t.

  29. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 7:24 pm

    Pat M

    His career mark is .402.

  30. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 7:26 pm

    Bodhisattva

    I was? Whoa.

    There are often less nefarious explanations. In this case, it’s that I’m multi-tasking: watching Jeopardy while surfing the net.

  31. Hey ZZ February 25th, 2010 at 7:26 pm

    Just a dose of reality guys, look for Nick Johnson to hit around .280, with 115 k’s and lot’s of dp’s….He’s going to disappoint many here if you don’t see him in a realistic light….

    —————————–

    How is it reality if you just arbitraly made it up?

    Just using the stats from full or close to full seasons from NJ:

    In 2005 he hit .289, had 87 SO, and 15 GDP

    In 2006 he hit .290, had 99 SO, and 12 GDP

    In 2009 he hit .291, had 84 SO, and 15 GDP

    Damon had 9 GDP last year in the 2 hole. Jeter had 24 in 2008 and 21 in 2007.

  32. Bodhisattva - Destiny Wears Pinstripes February 25th, 2010 at 7:27 pm

    It’s hard to dismiss NJ’s on-base numbers, particularly against LHP and when you further weigh this against Granderson’s futility vs LHP.

    But Granderson isn’t some yeoman player, so let’s see how the adjustments go – while NJ is batting second vs. LHP.

  33. Rob NY -- 2009 the Road to Redemption. February 25th, 2010 at 7:28 pm

    Rich in NJ– Thanks for suggesting “The Book” it really is great. Took a plane out (here) to Arizona this morning and read about 120 pages. Couldn’t put it down the entire flight. While it’s a bit dense it’s exactly what I was looking for.

    Sheds light on the game with imperical evidence in a way a lot of other baseball ‘dogma’ certainly does not. The theory is derived straight from the counting stats people hold to like a teddy bear before night night but applie (relatively) basic math to pull out some fascinating observations. Again, thanks.

  34. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 7:29 pm

    You’re welcome, Rob. I need to reread most sections in order to fully grasp them.

  35. Bodhisattva - Destiny Wears Pinstripes February 25th, 2010 at 7:30 pm

    Rich,

    Nefarious? Maybe I’m right about the humor :D.

    Your mind goes to dark places, doesn’t it?

    I’m kidding, of course.

  36. Rob NY -- 2009 the Road to Redemption. February 25th, 2010 at 7:31 pm

    Applie? Apply I what I meant.

  37. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 7:31 pm

    Phil the Thrill
    February 25th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
    You want to be about 80% or better if you’re considering life as a high volume base stealer.

    ————————————————————

    I’d like to have 8 regulars hit 50 homers a piece, too, but, 50 homer guys are hard to find. Exactly how many 80% steal rates do you see in a season…or in a career….damned few. Perhaps if nobody can reach that level, the managers should put red lights out for them.

  38. raymagnetic February 25th, 2010 at 7:33 pm

    Brett Gardner is aHEAD of his time. Hard to miss that dome. lol

  39. Rob NY -- 2009 the Road to Redemption. February 25th, 2010 at 7:33 pm

    Rich– absolutely, a lot of pencil marks/reading and re-reading going on with this book.

  40. Erica - always OPPC February 25th, 2010 at 7:34 pm

    Rich in NJ
    February 25th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
    blake

    “I think Granderson should hit wherever he will have better sabermetrics.”

    You think where a batter hits significantly changes his stats?
    **************

    Not usually, but you can make the argument it certainly helped Roger Maris when he got dropped into #3 in 1961

  41. raymagnetic February 25th, 2010 at 7:35 pm

    “For example, most FAs who have come to NY have struggled in April.”

    Do you have numbers to back this up? Or are you simply using an eye and memory test for this statement?

  42. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 7:36 pm

    people keep saying that they want Granderson’s power further down in the line-up. There’s a lot to be said for burying the other pitcher early, too. In the Yankee line-up, exactly where is there not power other than in the Winn/Gardner spot and possibly Johnson? With Johnson, it might take 3 more singles to score him.

  43. jack -lv nv February 25th, 2010 at 7:38 pm

    Great work Chad! I have been a Yankee fan for nearly 60 yrs and the past 30 here in Vegas. I feel more in tune with what’s happening in Yankeeland than ever before. We take the internet for granted but it is such tool.

  44. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 7:40 pm

    GB, I’m 58 ( as of yesterday ), I’ve had 7 knee surgeries, 2 hip replacements, and screws in my ankle and I can give Nick a run for his money

  45. Erica - always OPPC February 25th, 2010 at 7:44 pm

    Pat M.
    February 25th, 2010 at 7:40 pm
    GB, I’m 58 ( as of yesterday ), I’ve had 7 knee surgeries, 2 hip replacements, and screws in my ankle and I can give Nick a run for his money
    *************

    Pat M is part man, part robot!!!!

  46. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 7:44 pm

    Pat, congrats, but, you and nick might want to stick to just a slow trot. Don’t need either of you guys getting hurt again. I suggest that you both have an underwater footrace….no sharks or killer whales in the pool.

  47. Hey ZZ February 25th, 2010 at 7:45 pm

    “Think of stealing bases as a bit like one of those commercials for breakfast cereal. You know, the ones where they say it takes 14 bowls of Cereal X to equal what you get from one bowl of Cereal Y. In this case, it takes three stolen bases to equal one walk of shame back to the dugout. If you’re stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you’re better off never going at all.
    Consider the run-expectation table from 2003:

    Bases Outs
    0 1 2
    ————————————
    empty 0.5219 0.2783 0.1083
    1st 0.9116 0.5348 0.2349
    2nd 1.1811 0.7125 0.3407
    1st 2nd 1.5384 0.9092 0.4430
    3rd 1.3734 1.0303 0.3848
    1st 3rd 1.8807 1.2043 0.5223
    2nd 3rd 2.0356 1.4105 0.5515
    1st 2nd 3rd 2.4366 1.5250 0.7932

    A runner on first with no one out is worth .9116 runs. A successful steal of second base with no one out would bump that to 1.1811 runs, a gain of .2695 expected runs. If that runner is caught, however, the expectation–now with one out and no one on base–drops to .2783, a loss of .6333 expected runs. That loss is about 2.3 times the gain.

    Not all steals come with a runner on first and no one out, of course, and there’s a lot of math that goes into the 75% conclusion. Michael Wolverton covers the concept in this excellent piece. The main point is that in considering stealing bases, you have to consider both the benefit and the cost. In all but the most specific situations, outs are more valuable than bases, which is why the break-even point for successful base-stealing is so high.

    Much of the frustration “statheads” have with base-stealing isn’t that it’s happening, but with how teams misuse the tactic. You want to steal bases when:

    The value of one run is of great importance. In general, one-run strategies–steals, bunts, hit-and-run–are overused early in games. Especially in today’s game, teams aren’t willing enough to give themselves a chance at a big inning, and cut off a rally with a caught stealing where no attempt would have been the best choice.

    The batter at the plate is a double-play threat. Stealing makes more sense with a right-handed batter up than a left-handed one, and with a groundball hitter up rather than a strikeout or flyball hitter.

    The batter at the plate is much more likely to score the runner from second than he is from first. Teams will often use their best base stealers at the top of the lineup, even players with low on-base percentages, in front of their most powerful batters. In fact, they should be using those players lower in the lineup, in front of their least powerful hitters. Risking an out to advance from first base to second base is much more important when the guy at the plate can’t get the runner home from first base.
    The vaunted secondary effects of stealing bases–distracting the pitcher, putting pressure on the defense–do not appear to exist. In fact, most secondary effects argue in favor of keeping the runner of first base. A runner on first is more disruptive to a defense, with the first baseman holding and the second baseman cheating towards second for a double play, than a runner on second. Additionally, studies show that stolen-base attempts negatively impact the performance of the batter at the plate, presumably due to hitters getting themselves into negative counts by taking pitches or swinging at bad balls to protect the runner.”

  48. MTU February 25th, 2010 at 7:46 pm

    Pat-

    You must have a helluva time getting thru an airport. :)

  49. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 7:51 pm

    MTU
    February 25th, 2010 at 7:46 pm
    Pat-

    You must have a helluva time getting thru an airport.

    ————————————————————

    He must have a lot of trouble convincing them that all of that iron comes from One-A-Days and Flintstone vitamins.

  50. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 25th, 2010 at 7:52 pm

    Thanks, Chad!

  51. Rick February 25th, 2010 at 7:54 pm

    No more butts for Damon’s new manager ……..

    http://www.tauntr.com/content/.....ort-system

  52. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 7:55 pm

    MTU…..Male assist as I know all routine though it does vary from airport to airport…I used to fly about 125 k a year……Hey zz, that’s all very interesting, however it seems that the numbers that you laid out are from 2003, and it includes every base stealing attempt up and down the order…..I’m spefically looking at the top of the order, # 1 & # 2 hitters…..I’ll take my chances on a timely swipe of second when the count is in my favor…..More to the game than what you posted……A base stealing threat will rattle a pitcher for the hitter at the plate

  53. MTU February 25th, 2010 at 7:55 pm

    GB-

    A guy like that is a national security threat.

    Never mind the vitamins.

  54. Doreen February 25th, 2010 at 7:56 pm

    Pat M -

    Thanks for your earlier answer. :)

  55. Hey ZZ February 25th, 2010 at 7:56 pm

    GreenBeret7
    February 25th, 2010 at 7:24 pm
    I didn’t say that 76% marks a “high volumn base stealer, but, most teams consider 75% to be very good.

    It makes little sense that a 40% caught stealing rate by catchers is extremely good to great but a 60% steal rate for a runner is a failure. The math adds up, but, the idea doesn’t.

    ————————-

    There is no correlation between what is deemed an extremely good percentage for a C, which is based on his success in relation to other catchers, and what is deemed to be extremely good percentage for a base stealer, which is based on how much he helps or hurts his team.

  56. m February 25th, 2010 at 7:59 pm

    GB7,

    I was thinking Po-Grand-Cano-Swisher in those estimates. But that’s S-L-L-S.

    How about Granderson-Po-Cano-Swisher? Then on days Posada sits, Swisher slides into the 6 spot or Cano & Swisher both move up a spot?

    I’d rather keep the top part of the order intact. I’m not a fan of moving Granderson into the 2 spot except on days that NJ doesn’t play at all.

  57. Hey ZZ February 25th, 2010 at 7:59 pm

    Pat,

    “The vaunted secondary effects of stealing bases–distracting the pitcher, putting pressure on the defense–do not appear to exist. In fact, most secondary effects argue in favor of keeping the runner of first base. A runner on first is more disruptive to a defense, with the first baseman holding and the second baseman cheating towards second for a double play, than a runner on second. Additionally, studies show that stolen-base attempts negatively impact the performance of the batter at the plate, presumably due to hitters getting themselves into negative counts by taking pitches or swinging at bad balls to protect the runner.”

    I am not sure I completely buy that it does not disrupt a pitcher, but there are other secondary factors to consider as well that probably out-weight any impact it has on the pitcher.

  58. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:01 pm

    The posts from Hey ZZ are from me btw.

  59. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 8:07 pm

    Hey zz….Late in the game I want the tying or go ahead run at second and not on first….I’ll do whatever I need to in order to attain that situation……Once the runner is at 2nd, it has a sweeping affect on the game….

  60. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:10 pm

    Pat,

    You also have to get to first for that to be an issue and NJ gets there at a much higher rate than Granderson.

    Also, how many times next season is Granderson going to be standing on 1st late in the game? How many times is Girardi going to send him knowing he gets caught 1 in 4 times? How many times is he going to risk giving away an out with his two best players coming up?

    I venture, not many.

  61. stuckey February 25th, 2010 at 8:11 pm

    “I think Hughes does.”

    Have to ask. Based on???

    Career line as a starter:

    Hughes – 28 stats 141.1 IP (5.04 inn per) 144 H 5.22 ERA

    Chamberlain – 31 starts 156.1 IP (5.04 inn per) 167 H 4.78 ERA

  62. Bronx Jeers February 25th, 2010 at 8:14 pm

    When Damon stole 3rd, Lidge was essentially screwed as he couldn’t throw his slider.

    “A runner on first is more disruptive to a defense, with the first baseman holding and the second baseman cheating towards second for a double play, than a runner on second”

    To say it’s better to have a man on first than on 2nd strikes me as a bit shortsighted. :wink:

  63. m February 25th, 2010 at 8:15 pm

    Stuckey’s not going to like this answer, but based on observation. :P

  64. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:18 pm

    Pat,

    The problem seems to be not that you are thrilled with Granderson in the 2 hole but that you do not expect from for NJ.

    You posted that .280, 115Ks, lots of DPs, but those things are not reflective of his career so far. So, the question is where are you getting these numbers from?

    NJ had no problem hitting .290 with a .426 OBP batting in front of 2 of the best players in baseball last season. He had no problem when he was challenged by pitchers.

    If anything, I expect NJ to be better in 2010 than 2009 because of how good of a fastball hitter he is and how many fastballs he will see.

  65. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 25th, 2010 at 8:18 pm

    Wow, Andrew Koenig was found dead……..suicide. I knew that this would be the result when I heard he disappeared. What a tragedy -There are no words to express how sorry I am for his family, who are now going to be left with questions that will never be answered.

  66. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:21 pm

    “When Damon stole 3rd, Lidge was essentially screwed as he couldn’t throw his slider.”

    ——————————

    Do you want Granderson trying to steal third with Tex and A-Rod coming up?

  67. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 8:24 pm

    Let’s go Yanks…..Time will tell…And I do hope I’m wrong about Nick Johnson and my 2010 expectations…..I kind of remembering Giradi sent Damon in game 5 of the World Series to get him in scoring position with those same 2 hitters on the menu…..In sports just as in life, you do have to take chances….Someday you’ll understand why …..

  68. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:24 pm

    Also if any situation is so critical to the outcome of the game NJ will just get pinch run for.

  69. Erica - always OPPC February 25th, 2010 at 8:24 pm

    Betsy – Romine wasn’t built in a day
    February 25th, 2010 at 8:18 pm
    Wow, Andrew Koenig was found dead……..suicide. I knew that this would be the result when I heard he disappeared. What a tragedy -There are no words to express how sorry I am for his family, who are now going to be left with questions that will never be answered.
    ***********

    Oh NO!!!!!!!!! Not Boner!!!!!!!!

    I still cry everytime i see the episode when he goes to the army

  70. Triple short of a Cycle February 25th, 2010 at 8:25 pm

    Betsy,

    I was just watching some old clips of him on you tube. Sad

  71. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 8:25 pm

    m
    February 25th, 2010 at 7:59 pm
    GB7,

    I was thinking Po-Grand-Cano-Swisher in those estimates. But that’s S-L-L-S.

    How about Granderson-Po-Cano-Swisher? Then on days Posada sits, Swisher slides into the 6 spot or Cano & Swisher both move up a spot?

    I’d rather keep the top part of the order intact. I’m not a fan of moving Granderson into the 2 spot except on days that NJ doesn’t play at all.

    ————————————————————

    Like I said before; nobody knows whether Granderson can do the job full time in spring training. It’s going to take games in the regular season before decing he or Cano, for that matter, can do it or not. As of right now, the batting order isn’t set. My batting order preference had 2 right handers, three switch hitters and four lefties (with Gardner) and 4 switch hitters and 3 lefties with Winn in the line-up. It’s not going to be much more balanced than that.

  72. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 8:26 pm

    before ***deciding*** he

  73. pat February 25th, 2010 at 8:26 pm

    The picture of the blue skiy in Tampa is making me forget our backyard looks like a hurricane came through with the weight of the snow breaking a bunch of tree branches.

    Darn that woodchuck!

  74. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:27 pm

    Pat,

    I definitely agree you have to take your chances sometimes. The article I posted referenced when 1 run is crucial, SBs are very valuable. And in those crucial moments NJ will not be the guy leading off 1st.

  75. stuckey February 25th, 2010 at 8:28 pm

    “Stuckey’s not going to like this answer, but based on observation.”

    Well, I kind of knew that was the ONLY possible answer.

    I’d refer you to my earlier post about the superficial aspect of this debate.

    Hughes has romantic leading man looks. He carries the movie. Chamberlain looks like the comedic supporting player, he has the funniest lines, but only in small chunks.

  76. Patrick February 25th, 2010 at 8:29 pm

    Speed at the top of the lineup is overrated. Damon was obviously a great #2 hitter for us because he had both speed and OBP skills. Unfortunately he’s in detroit now :(

    When choosing between speed and OBP I’d pick OBP, especially in Johnson’s case because of how absurdly good he is at getting on base. Most studies done say that if you put your high OBP guys higher in the lineup you will score more runs.

    I mean it makes pretty good sense right? Get men on base in front of your big hitters and more runs will score.

    If the lineup goes:

    Jeter
    Johnson
    Teixeira
    Rodriguez
    Granderson
    Posada
    Cano
    Swisher
    Gardner

    The top 4 guys could OBP over .400. That’s just absurd

    Honestly though, with the bats the Yankees have, you could put the names in a hat and pick them randomly to make a batting order and they’d still have the best offense in the league.

  77. Wave Your Hat February 25th, 2010 at 8:29 pm

    NJ would get his walks in front of Ruth and Gehrig.

  78. Bronx Jeers February 25th, 2010 at 8:29 pm

    “Do you want Granderson trying to steal third with Tex and A-Rod coming up?”

    Is that what I said?

    This is what you posted:

    “The vaunted secondary effects of stealing bases–distracting the pitcher, putting pressure on the defense–do not appear to exist.”

  79. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 25th, 2010 at 8:30 pm

    I never liked Growing Pains (I’m not sure I ever watched it actually), but any death is tragic and no parent should have to survive his/her child. I know Walter Koenig, of course, from Star Trek. How depressing…. Just yesterday, they walked out of an appearance they were to make on Larry King because apparently King kept pushing them back so he could update everyone on the situation at Sea World. That’s disgusting – I am now majorly PO’d at King.

  80. Phil the Thrill February 25th, 2010 at 8:31 pm

    GB,

    you don’t see them in a career because guys have decline phases that will pull them under.

    the .80 or rather .78 is an efficiency figure. It’s where the bet is good enough to let him run. under .78 the bet gets worse with each declining point.

  81. Betsy - Romine wasn't built in a day February 25th, 2010 at 8:32 pm

    Erica, Triple – very sad. When I was a kid, I used to threaten my parents by insisting I was going to kill myself – what did I know? I was a stupid kid. I was too young to realize that you never kid about something like that.

  82. Wave Your Hat February 25th, 2010 at 8:34 pm

    “Honestly though, with the bats the Yankees have, you could put the names in a hat and pick them randomly to make a batting order and they’d still have the best offense in the league.”

    Actually, you could pick the Yankee lineup out of a hat and it would have only a marginal impact on runs scored.

  83. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 8:34 pm

    Rather tough to say that Johnson hasn’t ever had 100 strikeouts or a hit into a lot of DPs, since he’s only had one season that could be considered a full season. One year with over 600 plate appearances and 3 more over 550 and two of those barely. Only one season with 500 official at bats.

  84. Triple short of a Cycle February 25th, 2010 at 8:35 pm

    Betsy,

    It is the most cowardly thing you could do

  85. Patrick February 25th, 2010 at 8:36 pm

    “Actually, you could pick the Yankee lineup out of a hat and it would have only a marginal impact on runs scored.”

    I realize that… hence the quoted statement =/

  86. Wave Your Hat February 25th, 2010 at 8:36 pm

    “Rather tough to say that Johnson hasn’t ever had 100 strikeouts or a hit into a lot of DPs”

    Not tough at all, just figure out the KO and DP rates and gross it up to whatever PA nummber you want.

  87. Wave Your Hat February 25th, 2010 at 8:37 pm

    Patrick, I had a brain cramp clearly.

  88. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:39 pm

    Matsui only had 526 PA last year. NJ does not nor is he probably expected to eclipse that number by much. In all the seasons I posted, 2005, 2006, and 2009 he had more than 526 PA.

  89. trisha - OPPC member who sees, hears, and knows all. 28 is on its way!!!!! February 25th, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    Triple Short, it’s probably the most lonely thing you could do. I stopped judging that action a long time ago.

  90. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    Bronx,

    One isolated example does not prove something across the board.

  91. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 8:41 pm

    Patrick, I strongly urge you to break away from your 4 computers and spread sheets and watch some games……Lets go Yankees, you mentioned running for Jognson late in the game, that illustrates my point about him in the 2 hole….Now you have compromised the lineup with a less than average hitter in the 2 hole for the remainder of the game……This will all play out this season, so I’m finished with this….All I know as a middle infielder, I hated it when a runner was at 2nd, it just makes things more taxing and you lose that comfort level as you have to keep jockeying torwards 2nd to keep the runner honest….

  92. m February 25th, 2010 at 8:42 pm

    stuckey,

    lol, haven’t read that post. will do that next.

    it has nothing to do with their respective laurel & hardy personas.

    personally, i think joba regressed from 2008 to 2009. could the shoulder, could be the velocity. whatever it is, he wasn’t the same. frankly at times, he looked a mess. and what’s the deal with battling the catcher? walking around the mound?

    now people are going to say, “well, what do you expect? he only had 88 innings in the minors!” Then if he wants to be a starter, then go down to the minors and do whatever would’ve gotten done in those missing innings.

  93. Triple short of a Cycle February 25th, 2010 at 8:42 pm

    Trisha,

    Tell that to the wife,husband,children or parents that are left behind to ponder what they could or could not have done to help

  94. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 8:44 pm

    “I stopped judging that action a long time ago.”

    Really, who the f is anyone to judge another person’s pain?

  95. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:44 pm

    NJ will be pinch run for regardless of where he bats. If a game is going into extra innings, it is probably not going to last long enough for it to matter where in the line up this pinch runner is.

  96. Wave Your Hat February 25th, 2010 at 8:45 pm

    “Now you have compromised the lineup with a less than average hitter in the 2 hole for the remainder of the game”

    I have an idea, let’s all guess how many times the Sox bring in Okajima to face Granderson this year.

  97. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 8:45 pm

    Predictabilty is defendable, it’s the uncertainity that gives you an edge….And that is vital in sports

  98. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 8:47 pm

    “could the shoulder, could be the velocity. whatever it is, he wasn’t the same. frankly at times, he looked a mess. ”

    The shoulder caused the decreased velocity. The issue is whether or not he will get it back.

    Losing 2-3 mph on one’s FB has to have an effect on a kid’s psyche.

  99. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 8:48 pm

    “I have an idea, let’s all guess how many times the Sox bring in Okajima to face Granderson this year.”

    Marcus Thames, come on down.

  100. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:48 pm

    Wave,

    Exactly. You have to get to first for Granderson’s speed to matter. If the game is on the line a LOOGY is coming in, and Grandy is probably not getting to first.

  101. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:49 pm

    Rich,

    You just compromised the lineup with a less than average hitter in the 2 hole. For shame.

  102. trisha - OPPC member who sees, hears, and knows all. 28 is on its way!!!!! February 25th, 2010 at 8:49 pm

    Triple – I would never term an obvious act of desperation as cowardly. I would term it as tragic, as devastating, as overwhelmingly sad, but never as cowardly. In its own way I actually think it is brave.

    I am not saying that the effect on those left behind is a good thing, just that the pain that has to drive one to suicide should emit more compassion than judgement.

  103. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 8:51 pm

    lets go yankees
    February 25th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
    “I’d think that such an intelligent advanced stats believer like you would know that a 76% steal rate is extremely good. Even old time stat lovers realize that.”

    —————————

    A 76% steal rate is not “extremely good,” especially in front of 2 of the best hitters in the game.

    ————————————————————

    If you consider Granderson a base stealing risk, what do you consider Jeter? They both have a 79% success rate. Rodriguez is better than both at 81%.

  104. randy l. February 25th, 2010 at 8:53 pm

    there will be times that a base stealing threat at first doesn’t steal, but the hitter receives all fastballs to make it easier to throw the runner out.

    this makes it easier to hit.

    how is this very real benefit measured ?

    i don’t think it is.

    if teams don’t steal , a team sometimes puts in it’s good hitting catcher who can’t throw well.

    this will result in more hits for the opposing team.

    is this measured?

    doubt it.

    if a base stealing threat is on second, either the shortstop or the second baseman is going to be out of normal position keeping the runner close.

    there is a benefit to the hitter by having a fielder out of position.

    is this measured?

    probably not.

    so, there are lots of benefits to stealing that aren’t measured.

    it’s not as simple as just moving up a base.

    say a runner is on first and no outs and there is a base stealing threat on first.

    the run expectancy from looking at all the times that a runner was on first ( according to above table in other post) is .9916 .

    this is with all kinds of runners slow, medium , and fast.

    obviously if only fast runners were measured the run expectancy would be different than measuring all runners.

    now combine this with the unmeasured things like i mentioned above and it’s not so simple as runner on first is worth .9916 .

    a stolen base threat might be worth 1.096 runs or 1.296 for all we know.

    the numbers on these charts look very official but they are not specific to situations.

    the run expectancy measures all runners on first and at what rate runs were scored.

    it doesn’t measure just the base stealing threats and see how many runs they scored.

    if all the non base stealing threats were measured they would surely be less than .9916 and is all the base stealing threats were measured the runs expected surely would be higher than .9916.

    non stealing threats and stealing threats combine for .9916 runs expectancy.
    so these kind of charts aren’t specific but general.
    a good manager looks at the specific situation and not the general situation.

  105. Rich in NJ February 25th, 2010 at 8:53 pm

    lets go yankees

    As a pinch hitter?

  106. trisha - OPPC member who sees, hears, and knows all. 28 is on its way!!!!! February 25th, 2010 at 8:55 pm

    Anyway, back to the Olympics. GO YANKEES!

  107. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 8:55 pm

    “This will all play out this season, so I’m finished with this…”

    —————————–

    Pat,

    It is all in the spirit and fun of a friendly (maybe not with GB) debate. There is not much else to talk about right now with baseball.

    I truley want to see why you want Grandy or NJ in certain spots. Just because I question your opinion after does not mean I do not want to hear it in the first place or will not learn something from it.

    In fact, your talk about Granderson’s speed scoring from first made me think of batting Cano in front of him.

  108. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 8:57 pm

    lets go yankees
    February 25th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
    Matsui only had 526 PA last year. NJ does not nor is he probably expected to eclipse that number by much. In all the seasons I posted, 2005, 2006, and 2009 he had more than 526 PA.

    ————————————————————

    That’s not a full season. Over a 162 game schedule, that’s 110 strikeouts and 15 GIDP. Seems that Pat M. was on target after all.

  109. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 9:01 pm

    If you consider Granderson a base stealing risk, what do you consider Jeter? They both have a 79% success rate. Rodriguez is better than both at 81%.

    —————————-

    Aside from 1997, every year in Jeter’s career in which he has stolen 20+ bases he has done so at least 83% success rate.

    The other years in which he has low stolen base totals, bring down his percentage.

    I venture, that when Jetes is not stealing at a high percentage on the season he stops trying often which leads to the low SB totals. Smart guy.

  110. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 9:01 pm

    Just remember how everyone here was freaked out about the Angels running on Posada and how it was so important to have Molina behind the plate…..It compromises what a club wants to do or feels comfortable with…..

  111. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 9:02 pm

    That’s not a full season. Over a 162 game schedule, that’s 110 strikeouts and 15 GIDP. Seems that Pat M. was on target after all.

    ————————-

    NJ is not going to be playing a full season, just like Matsui did not last year at DH.

    Giving guys days off in the field and interleague play for example.

  112. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 9:03 pm

    Basically there is no way NJ plays 162 games so there is no point in calcuting the numbers of a 162 game scale.

  113. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 9:05 pm

    >>>>>> Johnson will have more whiffs than walks…..

  114. Pat M. February 25th, 2010 at 9:05 pm

    Next page >>>>>

  115. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 9:06 pm

    Since joining the Yankees Alex has a stolen a base succesfully 84% of the time.

    He has become a very smart and very efficient base stealer as he has gotten older.

  116. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 9:07 pm

    Playing Fred Astaire again? You said Granderson was at 75-76%. On fact, he’s the same as Jeter. Detroit has never been a running team.

    As far as Johnson, he still strikes out a lot for his at bats, and less power than Granderson.

  117. stuckey February 25th, 2010 at 9:08 pm

    “and what’s the deal with battling the catcher? walking around the mound?”

    Over-thinking.

    “now people are going to say, “well, what do you expect? he only had 88 innings in the minors!” Then if he wants to be a starter, then go down to the minors and do whatever would’ve gotten done in those missing innings.”

    You make it sound like somehow it’s his choice :-)

    I can’t argue a thing you said about how he looked in 2009, but i suspect if it weren’t for a couple of electric months in 2007, we’d all be talking about Joba Chamberlain in the sames terms we talk about a LOT of young starters – sometimes for years – when’s he going to put it all together? Will this be his break out year?

    But for Chamberlain, it’s he doesn’t get time to struggle (and put in perspective, he didn’t struggle THAT much. The expectations are just sky high).

    Maybe the difference between Chamberlain and Greinke (who rocked a 5.80 ERA in 33 starts his 2nd full year) is the fact that the Royals didn’t happen to let him pitch a handful of innings as a short reliever his first year?

  118. lets go yankees February 25th, 2010 at 9:16 pm

    Granderson’s overall 79% is very misleading b/c of his ridiculous 26 to 1 ratio in 2007. He simply has not been the same player since 2007 in any aspect of his game.

    With Jeter, like I said, I trust when he is having trouble stealing one season he will stop trying to do so often. When he has his legs under him, he has shown as recently as last year that his is an incredibly efficient base stealer.

  119. GreenBeret7 February 25th, 2010 at 9:35 pm

    Is this what you do? Cherry pick the numbers and toss them out because it doesn’t help your case? Change parameters?

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