The LoHud Yankees Blog

This post could have been more or less completed almost two months ago, because the Yankees haven’t made any massive changes to the bullpen. They’ve traded away more relievers than they’ve added, but that’s a luxury of a system that has multiple young, effective bullpen options. Creating an organizational bullpen depth chart is a tricky thing — if the Yankees are willing to convert Phil Hughes to the bullpen, they’re willing to convert anyone — but we can get a basic idea of which pitchers are on their way.

Closer: Mariano Rivera
Front runners: Dave Robertson, Damaso Marte, Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, Boone Logan, Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain
Veteran insurance: Sergio Mitre, Royce Ring, Edwar Ramirez
Almost ready: Mark Melancon, Romulo Sanchez, Wilkin De La Rosa, Kevin Whelan
Low rising: Graham Stoneburner, Gavin Brooks, Andrew Brackman

As always, the bullpen begins at the end, with Rivera in the ninth inning. All that’s left is to put together a group capable of giving him the ball. Hughes and Chamberlain have proven that key relievers can come from fairly unexpected places, but the Yankees have groomed Robertson and Melancon to eventually fill a late-inning, setup role, and this could be the year they take those roles fulltime. The bullpen favorites are pretty easy to pick, but there always seems to be at least one bullpen surprise out of spring training (and more surprises by the middle of the summer). Lower in the system, the Yankees have a lot of quality arms that could eventually convert to the pen. I listed Brackman as something of a place-filler for all of those potential starter-turned-relievers. As far as I know, there are no current plans to make him a reliever.

Worst-case scenario: The absolute worst-case scenario involves some sort of Rivera implosion, but at this point it’s absurd to even speculate about such a thing. Instead, let’s say the worst-case scenario starts in the rotation. Losing a starter – or two – could have a significant trickle down effect into the bullpen. It’s worth noting that a lot of the Yankees relievers are young, without lengthy track records of success. Marte isn’t young, but his track record took a significant hit last season. Bullpen’s are tricky. There’s a reason the Yankees have not wanted to spend heavily on relievers, and the bullpen’s worst-case scenario is pretty much the same for every team: The closer gets hurt, and the rest of the bullpen crumbles from it’s base.

Best-case scenario: Rivera continues to slap Father Time squarly in the mouth. Robertson and Melancon emerge as such reliable late-inning relievers that the Yankees feel comfortable with both Hughes and Chamberlain being stretched out as starters. Marte pitches like he did in the postseason. Gaudin and Aceves thrive in multi-inning roles (and the Yankees don’t need them to spot start). It wouldn’t hurt to have one of the Triple-A power pitchers — Whelan, Sanchez or Grant Duff — put everything in place and become a big league role player by the end of the season.

The future: It still begins and ends with Rivera, who is a free agent at the end of the season. The Yankees will have a tough task deciding how much money and how many years to give Rivera, who will surely slow down at some point (though it may be in 15 years). A close second in determining the future of the bullpen is the development of Hughes and Chamberlain. If either of those two is converted to the bullpen full-time, it would clearly change the future significantly. Further development of Robertson and Melancon could also have a major impact on the next five or six years of the Yankees’ pen. Down the road is the possibility that Stoneburner — as well as several other starters — could be converted from the rotation to the pen.

Not even an attempt at the complete depth chart
The long-term future of the Yankees bullpen is probably hidden in the rotations of the minor league affiliates. As a matter of course, the Yankees develop almost all of their top pitchers as starters until the upper-levels, and even then some are never moved to the bullpen until they get to New York. It makes little sense to attempt a complete minor league depth chart — I haven’t asked enough questions about the lower-level relievers to finish one with any sort of confidence –but here are some names that stand out for one reason or another. 
On the verge: Mark Melancon, Kevin Whelan, Grant Duff, Amaury Sanit, Jonathan Albaladejo, Wilkins Arias, Royce Ring, Edwar Ramirez, Zach Segovia, Eric Wordekemper
Rule 5 picks: Zach Kroenke, Kanekoa Texeira (in the conversation if they’re sent back)
Lower in the system: Noel Castillo, Jonathan Hovis, Pat Venditte, Tim Norton, Brad Rulon, Jonathan Ortiz, Ryan Flannery, Gavin Brooks

Hot off the presses, here’s the release from the Yankees:

The New York Yankees announced today that they have invited five additional players to Major League spring training. The club has now invited 25 non-roster players to 2010 Spring Training in Tampa, Fla., including 13 pitchers, five catchers, two infielders and five outfielders. The total number of players now scheduled to report is 65.

INF Brandon Laird, 22, hit .266 (120-for-451) with 20 doubles, 13 home runs and 75 RBI in a career-high 124 games with Single-A Tampa in 2009, tying for third among all Yankees minor leaguers and leading the Florida State League in RBI. Following the season, played with the Surprise Rafters and was named to the Arizona Fall League Top Prospects Team. Laird was originally selected by the Yankees in the 27th round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft. He is the brother of Detroit Tigers catcher Gerald Laird.

RHP D.J. Mitchell, 22, made his professional debut in 2009, combining to go 12-7 with a 2.63 ERA in 25 appearances (24 starts) with Single-A Charleston and Single-A Tampa. Among all Yankees minor leaguers, ranked second in strikeouts (125), tied for second in wins and ranked fourth in ERA. Mitchell was selected by the Yankees in the 10th round of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft and is attending his first spring camp.

RHP Dustin Moseley, 28, made three starts with Los Angeles-AL in 2009, going 1-0 with a 4.30 ERA, before being placed on the disabled list in April with right forearm tightness. He also underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left hip in August. In 64 career appearances (23 starts)—all with the Angels—has gone 8-7 with a 5.41 ERA. Moseley was originally selected by Cincinnati in Compensation Round A (34th overall) of the 2000 First-Year Player Draft.

RHP Ryan Pope, 23, spent the 2009 season with Double-A Trenton, going 5-12 with a 4.78 ERA in 26 appearances (25 starts) and striking out 106 batters with only 34 walks. Pope was selected by the Yankees in the third round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft, becoming the first player ever drafted out of the Savannah College of Art and Design.

INF Jorge Vazquez, 27, was a 10-year veteran of the Mexican League prior to signing with the Yankees in December 2008. He made his Double-A debut in 2009, batting .329 with 13 home runs and 56 RBI in 57 games for Trenton before missing the final two months of the season on the disabled list with a left wrist sprain. He played for Team Mexico in the 2009 World Baseball Classic prior to the season, batting .294 (5-for-17) with one home run and five RBI in five games.

UPDATE, 12:29 p.m.: In a nice bit of timing, I just spoke to Brian Cashman on the phone and he touched a little more on the Damon process. He says the notion that the Yankees didn’t “engage” with Damon is just plain false and that, despite media reports that Damon might sign for $7 million a year, he fully expects Damon to get the Bobby Abreu-type money of at least $9 million a year.

“I mean, that’s what they said when they turned down our last offer,” Cashman told me. “I told them I was at the level of two years, $13 million and they said ‘no bleeping way’ and then we even floated the one year, $6 million with deferred money and they pointed to the Bobby Abreu deal. So I fully expect him to get Abreu money, unless they were playing us the entire winter. That would be like playing poker without any hand at all and, you know, maybe they did that.”

I asked Cashman if ever had regrets about how he handled a particular negotiation.

“I’m sure in the past, I have, I’ve put some things away but in this case, we did what we could,” he said. “We absolutely did what we could. The information we got from them was loud and clear. We followed Johnny’s guidelines, Johnny’s path. What’s happening now is a lot of spin doctoring by the agent. It didn’t work out. Don’t try to make us look bad or the Yankees look bad. That’s not right.”

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(Original post)

Looking out my window right now, it’s hard to imagine anyone being interested in playing catch or taking batting practice, but I guess that’s why spring training is in Florida – Chad’s on his way to Tampa today and a slew of Yankees are already into informal workouts at the minor-league complex. Baseball is here.

While I was doing some reading today, I stumbled across a story from a few days ago that had some interesting quotes from Brian Cashman. Cash spoke at the University of New Haven and when asked by a local reporter beforehand about the Yankees policy of not negotiating extensions on expiring contracts, said this:

“The industry the last two free agent markets seems to be going downward and the player’s ages are going upward. It makes more sense to be patient. My attitude is if this is the place you want to be, you will make it happen. Johnny Damon professed his love for the Yankees, wanted to be here and was given every chance to be here. He’s not here anymore and I don’t feel that is the Yankees’ fault. They have to reconcile why they are not here, not me. If people want to be here and be a part of something, then find a way to work it out. Of course we want (Jeter, Rivera and Girardi) back, but we choose to delay that until the end of the year.”

The story also mentions that Cashman extended two contracts earlier in his career – Paul O’Neill’s and Chad Curtis’s – and none since. So there’s some random trivia for you. Cashman also said the Damon negotiations basically ended after the Yankees had two offers (a two-year, $14 million deal and a one-year, $6 million deal) turned down. Cashman has no regrets.

“I told (Damon and Boras), ‘I don’t know if Hal (Steinbrenner, the team’s part owner) would approve it, but I’m not going to fight for it unless we know you will do it,’” Cashman said. “Scott Boras said, ‘Bobby Abreu’s (new) contract is $9 million a year right now on the table so why would we do that? So I expect to see a Bobby Abreu contract.’ … I hope he does not sign for something less than our offer. That means he should have been a Yankee and that’s not our fault.”

“I know a town where real life’s a game, baseball’s all that’s real. At night all the faces light up, as the players take the field.” – Widespread Panic

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On the calendar above my desk, I’ve written two words on the date February 16: Spring Training. My flight to Tampa leaves in a few hours. Pitchers and catchers officially report tomorrow.

Baseball is back, and the Yankees have 47 days to answer these 10 questions before opening day.

1. Who is the No. 5 starter? Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or a surprise choice from the Alfredo Aceves Group of dark horse candidates? I honestly believe it’s an even race between Hughes and Chamberlain. Best pitcher this spring wins the job.

2. Where does the rotation’s odd man out open the season? In the bullpen or Triple-A? It’s difficult to keep that sort of talent out of the big leagues, but there is a lot to be said for stretching out both Hughes and Chamberlain, giving them enough innings to start this season and in the future. I don’t think Triple-A will happen for either of them, but Brian Cashman has said it’s a possibility.

3. Is Brett Gardner an everyday outfielder? With Randy Winn and Marcus Thames coming to camp, the Yankees have two veterans to fight for Gardner’s job.

4. Who is the starting center fielder? If Gardner is an everyday outfielder, should he start in left or center? It will either be him or Curtis Granderson, and neither is a bad defensive option. Either one would be a defensive upgrade in left.

5. Who bats second? Derek Jeter will return to the lead-off spot, but who replaces Johnny Damon in the No. 2 hole? Nick Johnson has the on-base percentage. Granderson has the speed. Could someone else sneak into this conversation or is it two-man race?

6. Is it worth keeping a Rule 5 pick on the roster? Not so long ago, Jamie Hoffmann was the Yankees best option as a right-handed, reserve outfielder. That might not be the case now that Thames is in the mix. There’s a lot to like about Hoffmann — including more speed and better defense than Thames — but will a team like the Yankees really carry a Rule 5 pick when there’s a more proven option available?

7. Does the team need a second lefty? Count on Damaso Marte making the opening day roster, but will he be the only left-hander in the bullpen? Boone Logan, Royce Ring, Kei Igawa and possibly Wilkin De La Rosa will be pleading their case?

8. If not a second lefty, who rounds out the bullpen? Let’s not forget that Jonathan Albaladejo opened the past two seasons in the big leagues, and frankly, I’m not willing to completely rule him out for a third opening day roster. Albaladejo, Mark Melancon, Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, Edwar Ramirez, Romulo Sanchez and few other dark horses could be competing for a bullpen spot that might or might not be available. Another related question: Could anyone from that group beat out Chad Gaudin, Alfredo Aceves or Dave Robertson?

9. Who is the utility infielder? Unless the Yankees make a move between now and April 4, there are only three candidates for the utility job: Ramiro Pena, Eduardo Nunez, Kevin Russo and Reegie Corona. Of that group, only Pena has major league experience.

10. Have any bullpen roles shifted? Mariano Rivera is set in the ninth, but how does the rest of the bullpen stack up. Assuming Hughes or Chamberlain is in the major league pen, is he definitely the eighth-inning guy? What about Robertson? Is Aceves a long man or a one-inning, late-inning reliever? Does Marte pitch to lefties or play a role in the setup competition?

I’m getting my bags packed and trying to finalize a few things here at home before I fly to Tampa tomorrow, but a lot of the players are already rolling into the Yankees complex.

Turns out — and this will shock you — Curtis Granderson is being a good guy about the possibility of Brett Gardner taking the center field job.

“People forget that I came up as a left fielder,” Granderson told Bryan Hoch. “In the Minor Leagues all the way up to Double-A, I didn’t start playing center field consistently until my second year in the Minors. Even when I came to the big leagues, I played a few games in left. I have no problem going back over there if that happens to be.”

A few other minor bits of news from around baseball…

• The YES Network and NESN are getting into the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. (thanks to Sanford for sending that link)

• Apparently Jose Molina could catch on with the Rangers, but he wouldn’t be a lock to make the big league roster.

• This is from the weekend, but worth checking out if you haven’t seen it. The Royals are considering Kyle Farnsworth as a starter.

• The Yankees will be in Chicago when the White Sox celebrate Frank Thomas Day.

• Apparently I went to college in the 17th most romantic city in America. Trust me, this is a massive upset.

It’s a lot easier to write this sort of thing about position players,* but I think we can tweak the format a little bit to make it work for pitchers. The Yankees rotation is obviously built around CC Sabathia, while Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain provide some youth and significant upside, but perhaps the most overlooked move of the winter was the addition of Javier Vazquez. He provides durability to the middle of the rotation and extends the Yankees depth at the back.

Top four: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez
Competition: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain
Veteran insurance: Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves
Almost ready: Zach McAllister, Ivan Nova, Romulo Sanchez
Low rising: Jeremy Bleich, Manny Banuelos, Adam Warren, Jose Ramirez

Basically, the Yankees are going into spring training with either Gaudin or Aceves as their No. 7 starter, and that’s a pretty solid situation in terms of depth and insurance. They have a legitimate ace at the top, young talent at the bottom, and two proven veterans in the middle. Burnett is Burnett: Ace stuff without ace consistency. In the past few years, the Yankees have traded away a lot of upper-level pitching talent, but they still have a good group of young arms ready to open the season in Triple-A. Clearly the organizational depth chart goes well beyond the names listed here, and three additional names to keep in mind are Chris Garcia, Alan Horne and George Kontos, right-handers coming back from injuries with the potential to reach the big leagues before the end of the season.

Worst-case scenario: The ghosts of 2004 haunt Vazquez, Pettitte shows his age, Chamberlain and Hughes can’t bring their bullpen results into the rotation, and Burnett is more Mr. Hyde than Dr. Jekyll. At this point, I don’t think it makes much sense to worry about Sabathia, but it’s not especially hard to imagine the things that could go wrong with the rest of the rotation. That said, I’m pretty sure that’s the case with every rotation. Pitchers are volatile, and going beyond an ace is naturally going to raise some red flags.

Best-case scenario: Vazquez repeats 2009, Pettitte continues to pitch as if he’s five years younger, Chamberlain and/or Hughes live up to their potential as front-line starters and Burnett pitches like he did in Game 2, not like Game 5. Oh, and Sabathia wins the Cy Young. There is significant upside to this rotation, so the best-case scenario is a very, very good one. Of all the good that could come in the minor leagues – Banuelos pitching his way to Double-A, Bleich learning to harness his stuff, Jairo Heredia and Dellin Betances getting healthy — the best might be Andrew Brackman throwing strikes and having a breakout season.

The future:  Burnett is signed through 2013 and Sabathia through 2015, but both Pettitte and Vazquez are free agents after this season, so there is the potential for significant change in the near future. Ideally, both Chamberlain and Hughes would pitch well enough and get enough innings to factor into the long-term future of the rotation. McAllister and Nova — and maybe Bleich and a few others – could put themselves into the 2011 mix, but it’s worth noting that the upcoming free agent class includes Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb.

An attempt at a (somewhat) complete depth chart
An educated guess, but only a guess
Scranton: Zach McAllister, Ivan Nova, Romulo Sanchez, Kei Igawa, Jason Hirsh
Trenton: Jeremy Bleich, Hector Noesi, Wilkin de la Rosa, Chris Garcia, (maybe Alan Horne, maybe Ryan Pope, maybe D.J. Mitchell, maybe Lance Pendleton)
Tampa: Manny Banuelos, Jairo Heredia, David Phelps, Andrew Brackman (maybe D.J. Mitchell, maybe Lance Pendleton, maybe Ryan Zink)
Charleston: Adam Warren, Bryan Mitchell, Caleb Cotham, Sean Black, (maybe Jose Ramirez)
Extended: Dellin Betances, Brett Marshall, George Kontos (all because of injuries)
I’m hardly an expert on the lower levels of the system, but these guesses are probably fairly close. Quite a bit can change with some pitchers skipping a level, some being crowded out by bigger names and others being bumped to the bullpen. The Yankees have quite a few college arms in the lower levels, so those could move quickly.

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*I realize I didn’t do one of these for designated hitter. I tried and it doesn’t really work. The depth chart is endless — any viable hitter can play the role — which means the state of the Yankees DH is basically the state of Nick Johnson. Can he stay healthy? Can his power numbers increase in Yankee Stadium? Can he do enough for the Yankees to pick up that 2011 option? There’s a lot to be said for Jesus Montero, but let’s wait to see if he can stick at catcher before declaring him the future designated hitter. 

We have decided to pull back on the threaded comments. It was a good idea in theory, but as many of you pointed out, it hasn’t worked very well practically. The biggest deal breaker is how badly it breaks our iphone interface when there are 3 or 4 replies to a comment. And I think posters raised some very good points about how the threads will look during game nights. The comment boxes really end up overwhelming the interface when there are too many replies. So it’s something that we tried and it didn’t quite work. I know some people liked it and it is something we can always revisit if we can figure out a better way to do it. We appreciate all your feedback.

Don’t forget, you can check out a replay of today’s video chat right here:

http://lohud.com/protalklive

Here’s the link to the chat.

It starts at noon. See you there!

Don’t forget, Sam and I will be chatting at noon. Follow this link to get in on the conversation.  

Oddly enough, we did another chat almost exactly two months ago, a week after I got back from the Winter Meetings. On the morning of that chat, I guessed that the following topics would be discussed. Two months later, a lot of them still apply.

• Curtis Granderson is in center field. Andy Pettitte is in the rotation. Hideki Matsui is in Los Angeles. – Nothing has changed here. These remain three of the biggest topics of the offseason.

• Are the Yankees really going to carry a Rule 5 pick on their roster? – The question looms larger now that Marcus Thames is on the roster. Jamie Hoffmann’s chances might have gotten slimmer.

• Does the designated hitter depth chart really have Juan Miranda at the top? — We’ve clearly answered this one. No, it does not.

• With John Lackey off the market, is there still an impact starter available for the Yankees? — His name was Javier Vazquez. Whether he counts as an “impact starter” might be a subject of some debate, but my answer is, yes. 

• Where is Johnny Damon going to open the season? — Did anyone think we would still not have an answer to this one?

• How much better are the Red Sox with Lackey and Mike Cameron? – The Red Sox have gotten better. How much better remains a legitimate question. 

• Did the Yankees miss out on Roy Halladay? — This was one day after news of the Halladay trade broke. It’s pretty much old news at this point.

• How many West Wing references can Sam and I make in the course of a single live chat? – As always, the sky is the limit.

Nick Swisher is the Yankees right fielder, but everything else about the Yankees outfield is subject to change. Curtis Granderson will be in there somewhere — for this post, we’ll assume center field — and Brett Gardner is the favorite for the other starting role, but the Yankees have added a long list of candidates for bench jobs and possibly regular time in the lineup. The outfield corners are perhaps the most volatile part of New York’s lineup because of the lack of a big-name left fielder and no obvious replacements in the upper levels of the minor leagues.

Starters: Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher
Backup: Randy Winn
Veteran insurance: Marcus Thames
Almost ready: Jamie Hoffmann, David Winfree
Low Rising: Melky Mesa, Kelvin DeLeon

For a series like this, it’s much easier to lump the outfield corners together, because so many outfielders can handle both spots (including several Yankees minor leaguers who I didn’t list). For the Yankees, Winn seems best positioned to be the immediate backup in left and right – assuming he doesn’t win the everyday left field job — while Thames could very easily win a platoon role by beating out Rule 5 pick Hoffmann in spring training (you have to wonder if the Yankees are willing to let Hoffmann develop at the big league level when they have a proven option like Thames in the mix). The starting job remains Gardner’s to lose, but there are enough pieces to mix and match if necessary. Mesa and DeLeon are both quite raw, with a long road between them and the big leagues.

Worst-case scenario: Look back at 2008, when Swisher hit .219 for the White Sox and Gardner stumbled in his first big league exposure. That’s where the worst-case scenario starts. We know Swisher is going to hit for power and Gardner is going to steal some bags, but they have to make consistent contact and reach base for those things to matter. If Winn repeats 2009, Hoffmann falls flat and Thames falters against left-handed pitching, the Yankees won’t have another experienced outfielder to turn to. They’ve signed and traded for an interesting group of Triple-A outfielders to put around Colin Curtis, but no one in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre outfield is a sure thing.

Best-case scenario: Throughout the minor leagues, Gardner always improved in his second attempt at a given level. If he can raise his on-base percentage to around .370 – which is still 19 points lower than his career minor league OBP – the Yankees will have no need for those veteran backups they signed this winter. If Swisher finds his power stroke at home, where he had just eight home runs last season, he could easily top 30 homers for the year. A return to form from Winn and solid splits from either Thames or Hoffmann would give the Yankees a valuable outfield bench, and Winfree could hit his way into the major league conversation with a nice power showing in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. If Mesa and DeLeon could cut back on the strikeouts in A-ball, that would be gravy.

The future: The outfield corners could change drastically in the next few years, but that volatility could go away if Gardner proves himself and Swisher remains productive. Winn and Thames are on one-year deals, so they don’t factor into this discussion, but Gardner is still two years from arbitration and Swisher is signed through 2012 (the Yankees can buyout the last year). The Yankees could ultimately stick with those two — and save their free agent money for Jeter, Rivera and a starting pitcher or two – or they could dive into an upcoming free agent market that could include Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Michael Cuddyer, Brad Hawpe and David DeJesus.

An attempt at the complete depth chart
An educated guess, but just a guess
Scranton: Colin Curtis, David Winfree
Trenton: Edwar Gonzalez, Dan Brewer
Tampa: Taylor Grote, Melky Mesa
Charleston: Neil Medchill, Zoilo Almonte
Extended: Kelvin DeLeon
Several things could happen in the lower levels. Medchill is a college draftee with power, so he could jump all the way to Tampa. DeLeon is young but very talented, so he could prove himself ready for full-season ball. As is usually the case, there will be some mixing and matching going on in the minor league outfields. Trenton’s outfield is fairly wide open for anyone who earns at-bats.