“Thinking that the Yankees can come back from a five run lead is not “fantastical” considering that it happens regularly.”
Not in the post-season it doesn’t.
Remember, this is the best 8 teams in the league. Giving up a 5 run lead is unusual in the postseason.
And it’s FURTHER speculating that the bullpen, even if well rested, was closing the door on a play-off team in their home park.
“Again, my statement was tempered with “Its highly speculative…” but you continue to ignore it.”
I’m not ignoring. I’m saying it doesn’t have much value in THIS particular discussion.
“Some one essentially made a point, basically in passing, that one could make an argument (meaning that one could say, assert, not even prove) that a battered bullpen played a PART or CONTRIBUTED to the Yankees playoff failures in 2004-2007.”
But one CAN’T make that argument. THAT’s the point.
You’re arguing backwards. You’re STARTING with the premise the bullpen was worn out, and YOU WANT to find instance where this fact could have theoretically affected the series.
If there are NO rules to the exercise, if we can start with a conclusion and speculate backwards to attempt to demonstrate the possibility of the conclusion, what is the point? There is no end to the possibilities.
“Which basically means what is says- a destroyed bullpen had a part in it- not was the main factor or anything like that.”
They didn’t have ANY part. Not in what actually happened.
“How could having essentially 1/3 of the pie that is your baseball team burnt out help you in the playoffs? It can’t.”
But we’re not longer dealing in the theoretical. We KNOW what happened.
I honestly don’t think you understand the point I’m making.
I’m NOT advocating Joe Torre’s regular season bullpen management.
I’m not saying Vizcaino wasn’t possibly tired, or anyone else for that matter wasn’t.
I’m responding to SJ44′s ASSUMPTION (and now yours) that Joe Torre’s bullpen management was so bad it OF COURSE affected their post-season results in 2005-2007, which is a point one can (and you both are) make by completely ignoring what actually happened, using the premise that “everything could have played out differently’.
You’re basically arguing the baseball version of the “butterfly effect”.
And you know what, you’re right. I can’t disprove it, any more I can disprove a negative.
I’m just saying you can introduce the butterfly theory to any argument, anytime, and with it change the rules, so that NOTHING is a safe conclusion.
Acknowledging that beforehand doesn’t change the fact that’s all it is.
I agree that the Yankees had other concerns about Wang other than that he was injured (though that was a huge part of it). If he had stayed healthy, I’m sure the Yanks would have tried to re-sign him, but would they have gone all out? I’m not sure. The Yankees see Phil as a true #1 type; did they think that way about Wang? I don’t think so.
Everyone say what you want about Mose but after 3 consecutive 7 plus innings and 8 or more strikeout with 2 or less runs is getting lit up? Not in my mind that is ace like and he is the best pitcher recently for SWB and oh yea he also had his carreer high in SO’s twice in his last 3 starts with 10 through 6.2 in one and then through 7 so he is a damn good pitcher. And who the hell is worse then A.J. An 11.45 era in his last 6 starts that sucks so bad he is terrible and he IS GETTING LIT UP for the love of god
“If he had stayed healthy, I’m sure the Yanks would have tried to re-sign him, but would they have gone all out? I’m not sure. The Yankees see Phil as a true #1 type; did they think that way about Wang? I don’t think so.”
They might not have seen him as a number one type, whatever that means….but from the time he debuted in the majors until he got injured he was one of the best pitchers in the league.
Why would the Yankees give Hughes a long term contract? He’s done nothing thus far to warrant an extension.
Now maybe if he pitches well the rest of this year and next year they’ll consider it but I believe he’s not even in the discussion of an extension and I’d be shocked if the Yankees signed him long term right now.
“that Joe Torre’s bullpen management was so bad it OF COURSE affected their post-season results in 2005-2007″
Again, your misplaying words. No one said OF COURSE it affected the 2005-2007 playoffs, but I guess SJ made the point (in passing I might add- it was a small piece of a much larger argument but you nit picked words) that it can be argued (Argued does not mean OF COURSE or DEFINITIVELY, it means perhaps or the word of the day even- speculated), that it played a role. And I tend to agree. I don’t see how having only 1 or 2 relievers because you devastated the others can help you in the playoffs. Especially in the deeper rounds, which of course, we did not get to.
I mean, as to some of your other points too, if you want to be in awe of the MIGHTY Indians 2007 Bullpen to believe that we couldn’t come back, fine that is your perogative. Me personally, I think if we keep it closer there we have a shot. Wouldn’t be the first time the Yankees rallied and it certainly wouldn’t have been the last.
Ray, maybe so, but since they didn’t extend him, what does that tell you?
I suppose your probably right, but teams are locking up their young starters long-term and that’s why I broached the subject. I guess for now it’s fine – Phil isn’t going anywhere for the next 3 years, lol.
I would lock up Phil (of course pending him continuing to pitch well and staying healthy). I am not 100% sold they should do it after this year, because it would be nice to see how he bounces back next year after his first full season starting.
It is a delicate balancing act though, because the closer Phil gets to FA and the longer he pitches well the more he is going to cost.
In the end though, it really is hard to say without having knowledge of what Phil wants. IMO it really depends on how much of a team friendly deal he would be willing to sign after this season or if he wants to sign long term at all.
Buying out as many FA years as possible following arbitration years is really the big money saver. With how much money the Yankees have already tied up long term, that money saved could really be beneficial. Also, the younger Phil hits FA the more his first “real” contract is going to be worth.
If he continues to pitch well and you can get him on a Lester contract, I very likely go for it at the end of this season.
LGY, wow, the Sox signed Lester after his first full year? They took a chance – but the guy has rewarded them big time
I can’t say I disagree as to waiting until after next year in order to lock up Phil, though you’re right – he’s going to hit FA when he’s in his prime if he’s not locked up before then. Only Sox players seem to give their team home town discounts, lol – but you’re also right in that we have no idea what Phil would want. I will say that if the Yankees broach an extension in the next year or so, it’s a great show of faith.
“Ray, maybe so, but since they didn’t extend him, what does that tell you?”
That they lucked out and he got injured. I think they would have preferred if he hadn’t gotten hurt and they wouldn’t have had to sign AJ.
The Yankees haven’t extended Jeter’s contract yet either. Should I read something into that? They didn’t extend Jorge’s contract until his last contract was over, should I have read something into that as well?
The fact is it was way out of character for the Yankees to extend Robbie’s contract. I don’t see them suddenly changing their policy now.
Right – if Phil blows up in the 2nd half, then it doesn’t mean they won’t lock him up eventually, but obviously it wouldn’t be this year. He doesn’t have to pitch like this the remainder of the year – in fact, it will be hard for him to maintain this because of the fatigue factor and because he’ll be facing AL East teams a lot more often – but if he pitches well enough and he obviously continues to show that he’s as good as they think, then there is no reason for the Yankees not to at least consider locking him up. Also, I agree LGY – it’s not about what he’s done (what have any of these youngsters done), but what he is expected to do. The Yankees have to decide whether he is worth the “risk” of a long-term deal, but then when they decided to not trade him for Santana, they really sort of committed to him.
There were serious concerns about Wang that made extending him long term not even a real consideration for the Yankees.
What happened was much more serious than could have been expected, but given his injury concerns and that he was a sinkerballer it would not have been smart to extend him.
When they signed AJ, Wang was in their rotation. They very likely would have signed AJ either way because they had a spot open in their rotation and there were no better options. Wang was projected as the #3 starter last year and to many people the #2 starter.
Jeter, Jorge, etc are not comparable also. The arbitration process is a completely different ballgame than locking up aging player’s long term.
The only comparable the Yankees have with Phil Hughes is Robinson Cano.
If the Yankees had extended Jorge’s contract early do you think he gets the same contract that he got as a free agent? So in the end, it ended up costing them a year and probably more millions on the contract as well.
Was Wang not injured and not fully healed from the foot when AJ was signed? I don’t see how a worse pitcher could have been the number 2 pitcher.
“but I guess SJ made the point (in passing I might add- it was a small piece of a much larger argument but you nit picked words) that it can be argued (Argued does not mean OF COURSE or DEFINITIVELY, it means perhaps or the word of the day even- speculated), that it played a role.”
But that isn’t what he argued.
Go back and look it up.
“And I tend to agree. I don’t see how having only 1 or 2 relievers because you devastated the others can help you in the playoffs. Especially in the deeper rounds, which of course, we did not get to.”
And no is arguing with you.
I’m merely pointing out that in 2005-2007, the bullpen WAS essentially a non-factor. That might be a rare exception to the rule you just cited. But nonetheless, that’s exactly what happened.
I’m NOT saying Torre’s bullpen management couldn’t hurt a post-season team, I’m saying in 2005-2007, it didn’t.
There is just a mental discipline involved in overlooking what sounds like it makes perfect sense, with what actually happened.
“if you want to be in awe of the MIGHTY Indians 2007 Bullpen to believe that we couldn’t come back, fine that is your perogative.”
Being one of the two of us that actually looked at the numbers from their 2007 bullpen, I will exercise it.
But that point isn’t that the couldn’t come back, of course they could. No one could argue otherwise.
I’m merely saying the scenario where a strong-armed Vizcaino, relieves Wang earlier, resulting in the Yankees not giving up another run, resulting in the Yankees I guess according to your argument “not giving up” (which I personally didn’t find to be a characteristic of that team, which I guess you did, because they STILL had the option of scoring more than 3 runs regardless of how many the Indians scored) and scoring more runs that the Indians, thereby resulting in the Yankees going on to win the series they lost 3-1, isn’t likely enough to be considered at any great length.
As I say, I can’t disprove this “theory” so if that is your point, I guess you win the argument.
No one can say for sure what would have happened if every player felt differently going into the series.
Glad that important point has been illuminated for me.