Pregame notes: Less might mean more for Hughes
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Notes on Aug 25, 2010 
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Asked what he would love to get out of Phil Hughes tonight, Joe Girardi gave his standard answer: Pitch well and go deep into the game. Innings limit or no innings limit, Girardi said, he’ll take seven strong innings any day.
But with Hughes, there is something to be said for taking a quick lead and getting him out of there after five.
“That would be great,” Girardi said. “First of all I’d love to have a big lead after five, then we’d worry about the rest of it later. If you get an opportunity to do that – especially with the day off tomorrow and our bullpen’s in pretty good shape – it would be great.”
One or two innings doesn’t seem like much, but it also doesn’t seem like Hughes is on track to go too far over his limit. The Yankees have kept the actual innings limit a secret, even from Hughes himself, but they’ve acknowledged that it’s a higher limit than the one Joba Chamberlain faced last season. The Yankees have not announced a plan to have Hughes skip a start completely, and it seems vaguely possible that he won’t have to.
“If you can do it (limit his innings) three or four, maybe five times in starts,” Girardi said. “Maybe even two innings in a start. It adds up. It definitely adds up.”
• Nick Swisher has been scratched. Our friend Jack Curry says Curtis Granderson has been bumped to No. 2 in the lineup. Brett Gardner will bat eighth.
• Alfredo Aceves will make another rehab appearance on Friday. Girardi said this one will be with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. “As long as he’s healthy, I think he’s going to be fine,” Girardi said. “He’s going to make another appearance on Friday and that will be the 27th. You can definitely expand rosters on the 1st. We’ll just continue to watch him pitch and get him back.”
• Damaso Marte was supposed to throw a bullpen yesterday but did not. He’s still feeling a little bit sore so the Yankees are going to give him a few more days off before he throws again. Girardi said there’s some slight concern that Marte might not make it back, but it sounds like they ultimately expect him. “There’s some concern about that,” Girardi said.
• Girardi said Javier Vazquez’s relief role could be as a long or a short reliever. Whether he would need extra work to stay stretched out depends on how long he’s out of the rotation. “He threw a bullpen the other day,” Girardi said. “If he’s to miss one start, that’s not going to make a big deal. It’s only if you don’t pitch for a long time that it becomes an issue. When he skipped the one start and came back, we didn’t really change his pitch count.”
• The good thing with Marte is that he doesn’t need to be stretched out at all. Girardi indicated that as long as he works up to a simulated inning, he should be able to come back.
• Friday’s bullpen will be a short one for Andy Pettitte (20 to 25 pitches). After that, he’ll probably need to throw another bullpen and then a sim game before he would be ready for a rehab start.
UPDATE, 6:28 p.m.: Still haven’t seen an official lineup change for the Yankees. It’s going to happen, it just hasn’t been announced. Here’s the Blue Jays lineup.
Fred Lewis LF
Yunel Escobar SS
Jose Bautista RF
Vernon Wells CF
Adam Lind DH
John Buck C
Lyle Overbay 1B
Aaron Hill 2B
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Associated Press photos of Hughes and Swisher with Girardi
Feel better soon Swish. Get nice and rested for Chicago.
(repost)
Betsy, I was listening to the Sux game on WEEI and the way they were talking about Andy, it sounded like they thought he wasn’t coming back at all! They were talking about the wavier wire and how the Yankees are going to go after Hiroki Kuroda because “after CC, they have no pitching.” Credit to one of the broadcasters who said that Phil Hughes manages to get wins and it doesn’t matter how he gets them – huge run support, etc., – he gets them. But then they pointed to his limited pitch count, if there is one.
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I have to admit this whole waiver wire thing intrigues me. They were saying that waiver wire claims are supposed to be secret and that they figured that Boras leaked the information about Damon. I have huge respect for Damon for turning down beantown’s offer. They played the clip of him being interviewed by Michael Kay where he said NY was the best place he’s ever played, much better than beantown.
Then they talked about getting Bobby Abreu. I am still confused. For anyone who knows, is the theory that anyone put on the waiver wire can be claimed? Does that mean someone could claim CC, even though we know the Yankees would pull him back? How do they know Abreu is available if it’s supposed to be secret, unless the secret part is who has put in claims rather than who is on the wire. I guess that would make more sense. For example, is there somewhere we as fans could go to look to see what players teams put on the waiver wire?
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You know how you guys in the NY area all know the characters who call into the FAN? Well a well-known Yankee fan who calls into EEI all the time is someone called Frank from Gloucester. The guy is 81 years old and he definitely has a cult following! I wish you guys could hear this guy. I absolutely love when he calls in because he calls those people on everything. He even his his own Myspace account! http://www.myspace.com/iloveneumy
Today he called in to talk about MVP. The WEEI guys must have made the mistake of talking up Adrien Beltre for MVP (Frank calls him Andre, I think on purpose
) so Frank was comparing Beltre’s numbers to Robby’s. It was pretty funny. He sounds like a goodfella when he talks. When I googled him to see if I could find his picture to link to, I got 21,000+ hits!
It adds up, but what are the odds that in a few of his starts the Yankees are going to be blowing out the team early? I think (even though I’d hate it) the Yankees need to plan to skip him…………otherwise, as it gets closer to the end of September, they’ll be forced to either skip him or go over the limits.
Also, and this may have already been discussed, Tampa never put in a claim for Damon. So much for media reports!
Really difficult to make generalizations, so I think it’s best to go day-to-day and for Hughes start-to-start.
Just play it by ear because we’ll have wiggle room on some days and none others.
CB-
Actuarial tables in the abstract aren’t that relevant with Nick.
What’s relevant are the medical reports on Nick, what they said, what conclusions were in them about the probability of Nick’s wrist being healthy or beung re-injured and what the Yankee’s appetite for risk was with respect to Nick.
We don’t know the answers to any of those questions, so I don’t know how to begin to criticize Cashman’s decision to sign NJ.
In retrospect it didn’t work out. But without knowing the answers to any of the above, I don’t see how people criticize Cashman’s decision to sign Nick just because Nick had an injury-riddled history.
Got to go. I’ll leave the forum to those who prefer Ramiro Pena to Bill Hall.
Stuckey
First, if the Red Sox do have 6 games against the Rays and Yankees, then they DO control their own fate.
Second, all it takes is for the Yankees to go 16-14 over a 30-game stretch and for the Red Sox to once again, defy the laws of probability and go 22-8 over that same 30-game stretch – with no Pedroia and Youkilis. That is not likely, but it is not impossible.
Third, I care if the Sox make the postseason, even if we do. Why? Because I do not want to face them in the postseason again. The last 2 times we faced them, we won in a grueling 7 game series and then lost in the World Series, and lost in a grueling 7 game series. So – I do not want the Yankees to be spent in a grueling series with them, and I personally do not want to have to be completely emotionally and physically drained in a series against them.
The MACRO view of the season is the more accurate way of looking at probability. Figure out using the best available information available how many games the Yankees are likely to win. START from there.
—
When speaking of probability, there is a lot more chance for variance in a small sample (the rest of the season).
OUCH!! Atlanta with a 10-1 lead after 2 and a half innings and have blown it. Trailing 12-10
I believe it’s official.
The Yanks are the worst/luckiest/most tenuous first-place, 100 win-pace team in baseball.
Though I believe expecting any different here is certainly no credit to my own intelligence or ability to learn.
raymagnetic,
Last I saw it was 4-0 Ohio.
Thank you Girardi! Playing Swish today seemed a bad, bad idea, and I’m glad we’ve changed are mind. Let’s not get all Pedroia-ey with our players, please.
Just made the Yankees lineup official
Jeter SS
Granderson CF
Teixeira 1B
Cano 2B
Thames DH
Posada C
Kearns RF
Gardner LF
Nunez 3B
“So – I do not want the Yankees to be spent in a grueling series with them, and I personally do not want to have to be completely emotionally and physically drained in a series against them.”
Good point. That’s why I have no problem with Tampa continuing to win. I am actually sorry they lost today.
We want Tampa to win the WC, not Boston, for a variety of reasons – baseball and nonbaseball related.
“When speaking of probability, there is a lot more chance for variance in a small sample (the rest of the season).”
Certainly, but the expectation (or fear) of something suddenly changing when it’s been remarkably steady not only in the short-term, but really in the long-term (17 years worth, really) is not probable.
To predict even just ordinary over a long, late stretch of the season is a pretty big reach.
“We want Tampa to win the WC, not Boston, for a variety of reasons – baseball and nonbaseball related.”
We do?
What reasons?
“Actuarial tables in the abstract aren’t that relevant with Nick.”
Sure they are because they speak to the methods through which risk is stratified.
Your point was that his past history wasn’t relevant. The methods used in actuarial analysis is based on models which incorporate past history for injuries. So I can’t see how past history could be irrelevant.
You’re right that the medical reports provide additional information. But even the medical reports can’t “predict.” That’s why people develop models where they try to quantify risk and those models are implicitly based on the idea that what’s happened in the past conditions which will happen in the future.
And just to clarify – I don’t think the signing Johnson was wrong or a bad one in any way.
It was just very risky. I was fine with it because signing Matsui was also very risky.
But you can’t just say what happened this year is a shock.
I don’t see how you can not acknowledge Johnson was a risk. That’s the whole reason they got him for a one year $5M deal. That wasn’t based on baseball skill. It was based on the risk he presented.
You can’t just wish that risk away. At the same time just because a risk went bad doesn’t mean it was a poor decision given the circumstances.
If it had worked out it would have been a huge addition to the offense. But it didn’t work out and that’s not out of the blue.
Before the season I would have guessed Johnsons’s probability for missing 130 games this season was 10% or so. Not overwhelmingly likely. But far from trivial. That’s a real level of risk. And that was a major part of the deal.
The Grandy man moving on up to the two spot
“First, if the Red Sox do have 6 games against the Rays and Yankees, then they DO control their own fate.”
They don’t. Because they still require cooperation from both the Rays and Yanks in the other 30 games they each play.
“Second, all it takes is for the Yankees to go 16-14 over a 30-game stretch and for the Red Sox to once again, defy the laws of probability and go 22-8 over that same 30-game stretch – with no Pedroia and Youkilis. That is not likely, but it is not impossible.”
30-0 isn’t impossible. But is that really what we’re talking about? The probabiity of the fantastic?
My prediction is it will be September 20th or so and the Sox will be 6 games back and we’ll be having a similar conversation.
If the threshold is mathematically eliminated, why not just state that upfront?
“Third, I care if the Sox make the postseason, even if we do. Why? Because I do not want to face them in the postseason again. The last 2 times we faced them, we won in a grueling 7 game series and then lost in the World Series, and lost in a grueling 7 game series. So – I do not want the Yankees to be spent in a grueling series with them, and I personally do not want to have to be completely emotionally and physically drained in a series against them.”
I think that’s rather clever justification of fearing losing to them in the postseason myself.
Granderson 2nd against the lefty Cecil? Can you say 0 for 4?
Tom in NJ =
You came SO CLOSE to winning the revised GTLU!!!
You had Posada as DH, and Cervelli batting 8th instead of Gardner.
Tampa getting hammered 12-3
# Frozen Rope August 25th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Granderson 2nd against the lefty Cecil? Can you say 0 for 4?
Can you say hater?
King Felix pitching in beantown tonight.
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Talk of the undemise of the Sux has been greatly exaggerated…
stuckey99
First, they DONT need the help of other teams if they win each of their 6 games against the Rays or Yankees. So – they DO control their own fate – at least for a tie.
Second, I made a reasonable what-if scenario and you turned to the unreasonable 30-0. Why would I be concerned on September 20 – with 25 less games remaining in the season – when I am not even concerned right now. So those points are moot.
Third, Yes, I do fear losing to them in the postseason. That’s obvious. I also fear playing them in a hard-fought 7 game series again, winning the series, and losing in the next round as a result.
anyone seen the Spanish film ‘rec 2′ , pretty damn spooky!
M,
Hawaii only had one hit, but they made that one hit count. The last two innings a smallish lefty shut down Ohio.
Always love the childish doom and gloom predictions.
Shows the ignorance of the poster.
As Stuckey said, this is the worst on pace to win 100 game team in baseball history.
All of the players are terrible, the manager doesn’t know what he is doing, and they only win games by luck.
It’s a wonder why these folks even bother watching the games since they already know the outcome.
trisha – true pinstriped blue August 25th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
King Felix pitching in beantown tonight.
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Talk of the undemise of the Sux has been greatly exaggerated…
———————————
good matchup ! lester vs Felix… Lester neutralizes seattle’s one big bat, Branyan.
my money goes to sox tonight if it’s even money bet.
Boston may not be in great shape, but they are NOT out of it, despite the cocky, arrogant assertions of some folks on here. There’s nothing worse than know-it-alls. Go ask Girardi and his players if they think Boston is out of the picture and no longer any concern.
On a different note, I’m tired of Nunez already. I prefer Pena for all-around play.
Cr9- the sox don’t have pedroia or youkilis for the rest of the season. They’re done. Cooked. Give it up. Look at their lineup, its garbage. They aren’t getting out of third place, despite anyones irrational fears. And its not up to them when they play the yanks or rays, they don’t just press a button that says win or lose. Its not in their hands, sorry.
Lester isn’t pitching tonight. Scratched until Friday due to back stiffness.
Wakefield is pitching tonight.
Lester isn’t pitching. It’s Wakefield going tonight. That ain’t good for the Sox’s chances although anything can happen.
Who made a doom and gloom prediction??? I did no such thing.
Who bashed the players and team and said we weren’t good enough??? I did no such thing.
Wow!
Who is making doom and gloom predictions? At most I’ve seen people saying the Red Sox are not completely out of it yet, and there’s a chance, albeit small, that they could become a problem.
I think it’s less intelligent to think it’s guaranteed over. It’s baseball, stranger things have happened, as we’ve seen before.
SJ44 August 25th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
Lester isn’t pitching tonight. Scratched until Friday due to back stiffness.
Wakefield is pitching tonight.
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money goes to Seattle ! if it’s an even money bet .
What would the probability be of the Giants falling behind the Reds 10-1 and then scoring 10 unanswered runs to take an 11-10 lead into the 9th inning?
Well said, jacksquat.
Yes because Girardi would tell the truth about the Red Sox playoff chances.
Nunez has had less than 20 ML AB’s and you are “tired of him” already? lol
Stick to worrying about the Red Sox and their 10% chance of making the post-season.
It’s smarter than being “sick” of a rookie who hasn’t even been here a week.
Nick — unreal (coming from someone else in the Bay Area)
Shut up, SJ44, you arrogant piece of gum on the bottom of my shoe. You are really a cocky SOB.
CR9,
Read Frozen Rope’s prediction post on Granderson.
That’s what I was referring to.
Yankfan, u don’t know what the hell ur talking about. If u asked girardi or any player about the sox, they’d sidestep the question and make a comment about how they can only worry about themselves, which is true. They aren’t worried. And why the hell would they be?
The probability are about the same as Colorado trailing Atlanta 10-1 in the bottom of the 3rd and winning 12-10.
I love how people are just assuming the Red Sox are out. They have the ability to heat up, you know. It’s not going to be easy, but its definitely not impossible, either. Look at the Yankees schedule in Sept, too. Except for Oakland/Baltimore, the opposition is not going to be easy. If the Sox gain 4 games (very doable) and then sweep the series against the Yankees in September, also possible, anything can happen. Dustin, AJ and Ivan aren’t exactly unbeatable, either. Its too early to say they have it locked up, until the day they clinch.
Not going to happen little boy.
Buy a pair of Depends so you don’t soil your clothes with worry.
“What would the probability be of the Giants falling behind the Reds 10-1 and then scoring 10 unanswered runs to take an 11-10 lead into the 9th inning?”
Around 1% – to win.
Nicely done by the Gigantes to come back.
But it’s a tie game again so probability still rears it’s ugly head.
Watch what you say, icebird, or big, bad SJ44 will correct you. He’s omniscient — or haven’t you been informed.
# YankFanCA August 25th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
Shut up, SJ44, you arrogant piece of gum on the bottom of my shoe. You are really a cocky SOB.
Don’t say that dude, 20 ppl will defend the “experts” on this blog. But there’s another person here, i see, who doesn’t believe everything they write.
Methinks you’re the aged, incontinent one, SJ44.
# YankFanCA August 25th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Watch what you say, icebird, or big, bad SJ44 will correct you. He’s omniscient — or haven’t you been informed.
LOL they should hire him to be the new manager. He clearly knows all.
Amen, icebird. But these arrogant clowns need to be called out from time to time. They agree with one another because it comforts them, rather than allow for the vagaries of sports and life to play out.
Yes, the Red Sox are going to “heat up”.
Ok, we get it.
In the last 8 weeks, the Red Sox have made up ONE game in the standings.
That’s ONE game over the last 60 games.
Now, with 34 games remaining in the season, without Youkilis and Pedroia, Beckett having a bad year and their other issues, they are going to make up SEVEN games on the Yankees. Something they haven’t done all year.
If you believe they will do that, you belong on a Red Sox board because you have more confidence in the Red Sox than you do the Yankees.
# GreenBeret7 August 25th, 2010 at 6:59 pm
The probability are about the same as Colorado trailing Atlanta 10-1 in the bottom of the 3rd and winning 12-10.
Or the Red Sox coming down from 0-3. Or the Phillies charging back, twice, on the Mets. Or the Yankees coming back in ’78. Look, it going to be very hard, I see that, but its possible. Nothing against you guys though, what I’m saying is that its too early to make assumptions.
@CB, i just looked up Andres Torres’ number as a giant and was kinda ‘wow’ by it, I did not realize he was that good.
And agreeing with Licebrd comforts with you?
The past 8 weeks don’t define or foretell the final 6, you idiot, or why bother playing the games? And who here has expressed greater confidence in Boston than in the Yankees? Only in your warped mind are you hearing such voices.
Then go to your local church and pray for your Red sox. They are in need of divine intervention.
Calling me out. lol
Worrying over the Red Sox is so 2004.
You aren’t calling anybody out.
You just aren’t going to get your hand held here for worrying about the Red Sox.
Worry about the Rays. They are a better team and more of a threat to the Yankees than the Red Sox.
Yeah, SJ44, and I’m sure there were tons of worriers when the series was 3 – 0 or even 3 – 1 in ’04. Hell, the Giants can still catch San Diego this year.
I don’t know why the Red Sox even come up in conversation ridiculous. We should be worrying about the Rays, the only thing that we need from the Red Sox is to take 2 of 3 this weekend from the Rays
Yes, the Red Sox are going to “heat up”.
Ok, we get it.
In the last 8 weeks, the Red Sox have made up ONE game in the standings.
That’s ONE game over the last 60 games.
Now, with 34 games remaining in the season, without Youkilis and Pedroia, Beckett having a bad year and their other issues, they are going to make up SEVEN games on the Yankees. Something they haven’t done all year.
If you believe they will do that, you belong on a Red Sox board because you have more confidence in the Red Sox than you do the Yankees.
We’re just not meshing, are we man? Buchholz is having a CY caliber year, Lester has been great, Matsuzaka has been ok, Lackey’s been a horse, and Beckett is trying to right the ship after being on the DL for months. It’s about pitching. Look at their starting rotation compared to ours at the moment, same with Tampa. I see what you mean with that offense, but please, with a starting rotation like that, the chances for a comeback of some sort are definitely there. Starting pitching is the key to most championships. By the way, I am a Yankee fan. But I’m realistic too. With 15 games to go, though, and if there’s a 5 game lead, now we’re talking. But we’re not there yet.
I’ll leave it at this. If you think you have all the answers, then why bother tuning in? Just wait until your prescient calls play out in real time. Or, more realistically, admit you can’t see the future and enjoy the unpredictability.
# GreenBeret7 August 25th, 2010 at 7:08 pm
And agreeing with Licebrd comforts with you?
Thanks for the cheap shot, man. We’re all equal here, with opinions. We’re all far from perfect. You guys are totally right though, the Rays should be the #1 focus. But there are 35 games left in the season, almost 1/4. All Im saying is don’t sit back yet. Jeez, calm down lol