Looking ahead to September
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Aug 26, 2010 
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Major league rosters expand in six days. In theory, the Yankees could call-up every player on the 40-man, but that would leave a bunch of guys sitting around with nothing to do. It generally makes more sense to let most of the guys stay sharp in the International League and Eastern League playoffs — Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Trenton are both in line to advance — then make a few more moves when those postseason runs are over.
That’s the way the Yankees have handled it in the past.
In 2007, the Yankees added four players on the 1st and a whopping 10 more later in the month. In 2008, two guys were added on the 1st, and the Yankees gradually added eight more. Last year, six call-ups on the 1st, seven more in the next two and a half weeks.
Considering the number of guys who are fairly close to coming off the disabled list, I’ll be surprised to see more than two or three true minor league call-ups on Wednesday. These are some of the guys to consider, some for an immediate call-up, most for an eventual promotion.
Major league disabled list
Lance Berkman, Alex Rodriguez, Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, Andy Pettitte
Berkman is eligible to come off the DL on August 31st, but it makes more sense to wait a day. Rodriguez shouldn’t be far behind, and Aceves seems healthy enough to pitch as soon as the Yankees believe he’s physically ready to face big league hitters.
Pettitte and Marte will take just a little bit longer. If you’re curious, major leaguers are allowed to rehab during the minor league playoffs. The year Francisco Liriano nearly won the Rookie of the Year award in Minnesota, he came down to pitch three hitless innings the decisive game in the first round of the IL playoffs. I was covering the Phillies Triple-A team at the time. They never had a shot against him.
Catchers
Chad Moeller, Jesus Montero
It’s standard protocol to add a third catcher on September 1. The Yankees didn’t do it in 2007, but given Jorge Posada’a nagging injuries and Francisco Cervelli’s lagging offense, a third catcher would make sense. Question is, do they go with the veteran Moeller — a guy to catch after Cervelli is lifted for a late-inning pinch hitter — or do they go with the stud prospect Montero.
Two months ago, I would have said Moeller was the obvious choice, but Montero seems to have figured out Triple-A. He’s hitting .361 with nine home runs since the all-star break. I can’t speak to his abilities behind the plate — I’ve only seen him catch in spring training — but the decision might hinge on whether the Yankees trust him back there in a major league game in the middle of a pennant race.
Non-catcher position players
Juan Miranda, Kevin Russo, Colin Curtis, Greg Golson, Chad Huffman, Brandon Laird, Jorge Vazquez
The Yankees have two utility infielders and four legitimate outfielders. They don’t necessarily need one position or another, so additional position players would be all about depth and maybe adding a lefty-or-righty pinch hitter.
Miranda might be able to play an immediate role. On days when Berkman is in the lineup, the Yankees only left-handed pinch hitter is Ramiro Pena. It would be a small role to play, but Miranda doesn’t exactly have a lot to gain from a few more Triple-A at-bats. Curtis could also give them an extra left-handed bat, while adding some outfield depth and a pinch runner. Adding Vazquez or Laird would require a 40-man move, so those don’t seem likely, despite pretty good numbers.
Pitchers
Jonathan Albaladejo, Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, Romulo Sanchez, Royce Ring
The best bet of this bunch is Albaladejo, who has absolutely earned a call-up. Sanchez doesn’t have the same season numbers, but he’s also been dominant since moving into the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre bullpen. Brackman and Noesi are both on the 40-man and both have pitched well, but Brackman is still in Double-A and Noesi was just called up to Triple-A. They might be worth considering after the minor league playoffs, but probably not before.
Jason Hirsh and some younger non-40-man guys — David Phelps especially — have pitched well enough to be in the conversation, but I’m not sure there’s a spot for another long man, especially not with Aceves on his way back and the Yankees already carrying 13 pitchers. The only guy on this list not on the 40-man is Ring, who’s been terrific against left-handers and might make sense if Marte suffers another setback and moves to the 60-day.
My guess
Joe Girardi said yesterday that the Yankees have not started talking about who to bring up, so any sort of prediction is wild guesswork.
I’ll say that on September 1, four players will be added: Berkman, Miranda, Albaladejo and a catcher (I’ve gone back and forth in my head a hundred times about which one it will be). Soon after, Rodriguez and Aceves will come off the disabled list, then Marte and Pettitte. After the minor league playoffs, I’ll guess Russo, Curtis and Sanchez get the call.
Based past performance trying to guess September call-ups, I’ve probably guessed too many players for September 1 and not enough by the end of the month.
That’s an Associated Press photo of Miranda at the top. The headshots are Rodriguez, Miranda, Russo and Albaladejo.
I guess I never noticed before that Miranda has Bobby/Melky’s number
When is Alex eligible to come off the DL-it’s around the 4th, right?
I’d go with Montero over Moeller.
Hey Chad – is it possible to install a Facebook like comment section? The feature I’m most interested in is the “HIDE” feature where you can hide the comments and posts of a particular poster. That’d be great.
I can’t wait to see what Montero can do with major league pitching.
Well, at least the Montero vs. Moeller conversation will get us through the afternoon.
Catcher is going to require a 40 man roster move either way they go.
If the Yankees have a long list of guys they’d like to protect from Rule 5, Moeller might make more sense because he can be dropped from the 40 after the season no sweat.
I’d call up Moeller Sept 1 AND Montero after Scranton’s post-season is over.
They might let Albie (or is it Dayo) pitching the post-season too. Might depend on how Vazquez, Mosely and Nova are doing.
86w183 August 26th, 2010 at 11:20 am
They might let Albie (or is it Dayo)
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86, before LGY yells at you, it’s Dejo.
I wonder if the pitchers are ever consulted as to who they would rather have as the back up catcher…and if so, who would they pick.
There already is one 40 man move that has to be made when Aceves comes back, since he is on the 60 day DL.
So another topic to get through an off day might be – “name 3 players who might be released off the 40 man in September”
My guesses would be Huffman and Colson, and then maybe De La Rosa?
Here’s the current 40 man.
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com.....p?c_id=nyy
Who are the guys who get dropped to add on potential call-ups?
upstate kate -
It would be Moeller, then, would be my guess.
Colson = Golson
I post once every two months then make a typo.
Jeez.
Was just going to post the same thing Largo. Who are guys on the 40 man that could be DFAed?
I’m thinking De La Rosa, Corona, Golson, Huffman.
Is Corona hurt? I seem to remember reading something about that in passing. If so, can they in effect call him up and put him on the 60 day DL to open a roster spot?
Honestly with all the guys coming off the DL there really is no need to call anyone up right away other than maybe Kevin Russo who can play IF and OF. Let the rest of these guys play in the IL and EL playoffs and call them up in mid-September. With 13 pitchers Albie would be sitting around doing very little when he could be down there closing games for SWB.
As far as catcher is concerned, I would DFA Golson and promote Montero at the end of the SWB playoffs. Moeller isn’t any better than Cervelli and in fact I would prefer Cervelli be behind the plate than Moeller in September.
Moeller’s offense is not much better than Cervelli’s. If they’re looking to not have a black hole for when Posada has a day of, then I would think Montero (after the AAA season ends), but his game behind the dish would make me nervous.
The Yankees have had strong campaigns out of many of their better prospects this season. Most of the attention has focused on the upper levels, particularly now at Double-A Trenton, with lefthander Manny Banuelos and righthander Dellin Betances promoted for the stretch drive to a rotation that already includes righties Andrew Brackman and Adam Warren.
Among the bright spots in A-ball, however, righty Brett Marshall ranks among the brightest. The 2008 sixth-round pick received an $850,000 bonus, largest of any Yanks draftee that year, and then had elbow surgery last season. He’s made a strong return at low Class A Charleston and pitched a six-inning, rain-shortened complete game Wednesday night, beating Savannah 8-0.
Marshall (4-2) allowed only one hit and no walks while striking out four to earn his third straight victory and has allowed one run in his last 29 innings, spanning five starts. Overall in August, he’s 3-0, 0.31 with just six walks and 19 strikeouts in those 29 frames, and he has a 2.53 groundout/airout ratio.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....s/?p=10165
Having Tony Pena as a tutor can only benefit Montero.
I would DFA both Corona and WLDR for Montero and Laird. Corona is injuried with a broken shoulder, so the chances of a team claiming him is slim to none. WLDR is having an awful season to say the least.
Moeller makes more sense than Montero. Montero isn’t ready to catch in the major leagues. He needs to stay in SWB lineup and get as much experience as possible behind the plate if he is going to help the Yanks next year. Bring up Curtis, Miranda and Moeller until the IL playoffs are over.
Rodg, Corona has a busted shoulder. They could call him up and then put him on the 60 day DL. Huffman and Golson are doing pretty well and both can play good defense. Right now, Jason Hirsh is on the DL at scranton with a sore arm. De La Rosa is a tricky one. Great arm with stuff, only about 26, left handed, but, he’s sort of stopped developing. This is his 4th year as a pitcher, so some team will take him on waivers. As a catcher, I’d pass on Moeller and bring up Rene Rivera, who just needed a parking place and a ML experienced catcher to work with Romine. He’s throwing out 55% of the runners at AA and 38% combined. Has a little power, hits decently.
Austin Jackson’s career homer high in the minors was 12 in AA in the eastern league which are pitchers parks and not conducive to hitting homers.
Also AJax drives the ball with authority and is not a hitter that hits the ball on the ground so it is reasonable to project that he will hit more homers in his career and he will develop some power.
He may never hit 30 but he certainly can be a 15-20 homer guy in the future.
The thing about advance scouts is these guys get paid to watch games live and judge actual game performance and not live off reputation and “names”.
So a guy sitting in the stands who has seen all these teams play and may have seen each guy 10 times or so in a season is making judgements on a very good basis and not just the rep of the player.
They won’t prematurely add Montero to the 40 man just so he can become a glorified pinch hitter. He’s not ready to catch, so he won’t be added.
Laird is in the middle of an adjustment slump right now. Not sure that, other than as a defensive replacement, he’d hit that well, not right away anyhow.
There’s little chance that Jackson ever hits 20 homers in that park. 12-15 tops except on a freak year where he hits 18-20. He doesn’t need to hit a bunch of homers. He needs to cut his strikeouts in half and get them under 100.
CC-
Marshall has a BIG arm and gets the 4 seamer up to 97 regularly.
What’s most encouraging about this stretch he’s in right now is that he’s dominating guys with his 2 seamer which the Yanks just recently allowed him to start throwing again pitching 89-93 with sick sink.
He has in his back pocket at any time a 95-98mph heater that he hasn’t even needed to pitch to a 0.31 era over the last month. That’s the only reason the K totals aren’t higher.
Marshall will be the new Bettances next season.
GB-
If you are on here The Yanks are planning to send Laird to the Arizona fall league this year to work as an outfielder according to Mark Newman.
GB7 -
FOrgot all about Rene Rivera. He’d be a good call-up if they wanted to pass on Moeller. But I think they’re going to go with Moeller. Otherwise, why keep him around?
Thanks, GB. I thought something had happened to Corona, just couldn’t remember what. Will be interesting to see if they go the 60-day DL route with him or maybe just DFA him to get a spot. Good stuff on Rivera. Seems like a good option to me.
The Yanks are going to have some tough decisions to make this winter roster-wise. I know Laird has to go on the 40 man this off-season and I’m sure there are others. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.
They may decide to free up space with a couple of the current bullpen arms later in September to do call-ups after the minor league playoffs too.
DFA Gaudin? Put Marte on the 60 day if he isn’t going to be ready?
I know Reid Gorecki is just a filler in the minors, I’m guessing he’s a long lost clause?
Doreen, probably right about Moeller, but, he knows that he’s there for emergencies only. He’ll float from organization to organization until he gets tired of the 2 week call ups. He’s a prettty smart guy and eventually would make a pretty good coach. Rivera’s about 5-6 years younger. I was really surprised to see that he was a 2nd round draft pick by Seattle in 2002.
GB-
Agreed AJax’s #1 goal next season should be cut down on his strikeouts.
And while his home park will be tough for him to get it out of regularly he’ll play plenty of games in Chicago, Minny as well as his tours through the AL East parks like Camden Yards, Fenway and the Rogers Centre which are very conducive to RH hitters that drive the ball.
He may never be a 30 HR guys but if he hits .300, steals 30-40 bases and scores 100runs with 60+ xbase power as a leadoff hitter and plays gold glove D he’s an all star caliber OF-er and I’m sure Detroit will be fine with that.
Montero is going to be the next Yankee to hit a HR in his first big league ab as a Yankee. Might go on a Shane Spencer kind’ve tear. Fuel that fire for everyone talking him up during the winter months in anticipation of 2011
Most of the advanced scouts I know, and I sit with many of them in the over 80 games I’ve attended this year, don’t see Jackson developing any significant power with his present swing.
The tough part for him will be, do you change what has given you success this season to add a power element to his game?
Most scouts will tell you they don’t like seeing players change what’s been successful for them to add something (in this case power) that is a complete unknown.
It’s more likely he is what he is at this point, than believing he has a power surge in his game.
His major weakness is, he strikeouts way too much.
That part of his game, more than a power stroke, has to improve if he is to have long term success at the ML level.
Rodg, Once the minor league seasons are over, I wouldn’t be surprised if NYY unloads 2 of the Huffman/Gorecki/Golson 3 head snake. They’re all pretty much the same player, though Golson has outstanding speed. Gorecki is about 30 and the others about 25. Same with a lot of these pitchers, like Sanchez and maybe albaladejo. They gotta promote ‘em, trade ‘em or lose ‘em in the Rule 5. De La Rosa can be replaced, but, I had a lot of hope for him a year or so ago.
GB,
Which Rivera was it that was a spring training invitee? Rene or Mike?
That was a catcher named Mike Rivera
GB,
Thanks.
# GreenBeret7 August 26th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
Rodg, Once the minor league seasons are over, I wouldn’t be surprised if NYY unloads 2 of the Huffman/Gorecki/Golson 3 head snake. They’re all pretty much the same player, though Golson has outstanding speed. Gorecki is about 30 and the others about 25. Same with a lot of these pitchers, like Sanchez and maybe albaladejo. They gotta promote ‘em, trade ‘em or lose ‘em in the Rule 5. De La Rosa can be replaced, but, I had a lot of hope for him a year or so ago.
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Yeah, could see either Huffman or Golson going (Gorecki isn’t on the 40 man). Especially if Laird is going to get some corner OF work in the AFL and next season at AAA. Also could see Gaudin/Mitre being gone. Miranda too. Would be nice to trade him, but not sure we can get much for him.
Part of the problem with that projection for Jackson is, if he put up those kind of numbers on a consistent basis, he would be one of the 10-15 best offensive players in the game.
I don’t know a single scout who sees that kind of upside in him.
His future rises and falls on the ability to make more contact and strikeout less.
You aren’t always going to have seasons of historic BAPIP numbers, as he’s having this year.
I think he’s a good player. I don’t think he will ever be considered an elite offensive player which, those projected numbers would suggest.
If I had to make a bet on Jackson being a certain kind of player, I’d pick Willie wilson. Slash and dash type, steal bases, 10-12 triples and 35 or so doubles. He’s going to need to get stronger and get more lift on the ball than he does now. Not sure that the Tigers want to go that way.
Very nice article on Cano
BryanHoch Yankees.com: Cano becoming gold standard at second
http://bit.ly/aSpkFm
GreenBeret7 August 26th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
That was a catcher named Mike Rivera
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I remember Feinsand giving everybody a heart attack one day in spring training when he tweeted something like M. Rivera pulls a hamstring and everybody freaked out thinking it was Mo. LOL
Manny not in the line-up today.
Day game after night game or on the move?
The Yanks tried to change Jackson’s approach at the plate last yr in AAA and it didnt go well. One of the first things he said in spring training was that Detroit told him they could care less about power, just go back to being who you were.
I’m sure they werent expecting him to k 170 times, though. It’ll be interesting to see if they try to tweak him now.
Eodg, I’m guessing that Gorecki goes the FA route after the season. Huffman may be more desirable as a throw-in over golson. Yanks will start having the younger outfielders showing up at trenton/Scranton next year. How good they are going to be, but, right now, I’m guessing that Daniel Brewer and Melky Mesa are the best guesses for the immediate future. Not that crazy about Jack Rye.
I can understand the Tigers not wanting to mess with anything his first year.
However, if he keeps striking out at this rate, this will be the only year he is around .300 unless he spends the rest of his career maintaining his Ruth-like BAPIP.
Very unlikely, IMO.
Erin August 26th, 2010 at 12:17 pm
GreenBeret7 August 26th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
That was a catcher named Mike Rivera
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I remember Feinsand giving everybody a heart attack one day in spring training when he tweeted something like M. Rivera pulls a hamstring and everybody freaked out thinking it was Mo. LOL
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I remember. Those silly kids pull that stuff from time to time. I’d like to strangle them.i
great article Erin
an excerpt:
“He’s growing up right in front of our eyes,” Rodriguez said. “He’s slowly but surely become one of the elite players in our league. Everyone talks about hitting, but what he’s doing power-wise in big situations and defensively, there’s no question he’s the best second baseman in baseball.”
high praise from A-rod
“Austin Jackson’s career homer high in the minors was 12 in AA in the eastern league which are pitchers parks and not conducive to hitting homers.”
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Jackson hit 9 HR in AA.
However, if he keeps striking out at this rate, this will be the only year he is around .300 unless he spends the rest of his career maintaining his Ruth-like BAPIP.
Very unlikely, IMO.
—–
Agreed
just what boston needs. Matsuzaka will miss his start against Tampa with a stiff back.
I think they’ll call up Moeller to catch Hughes’ games.
Angelo Gumbs picked up his first 2 professional hits today for that Tampa Baby Yanks. He’s 2-4 with a double and 3 stolen bases….stealing 3rd base twice. He’s now 2-14.
GB
That’s why Lester was scratched last night.
Wakefield made Lester’s start and Lester is making Dice K’s.
Speaking of BABip, for all the talk earlier this season about Phil’s low number I find it funny that we haven’t heard much about that in regard to Bucholz. His .262 mark is one of the lowest among SP in all of baseball.
The maturity level of the board has drastically increased with registration.
A Mick drive-by.
Well that explains that…I thought they skipped Lester to have a better chance against Price. Poor sox, you could almost feel sorry for them w/ all the injuries…or not
SJ
Do you think Jackson puts up the same #s playing fulltime in NY?
Who knows if he could handle NY, I’m sure the media would be all over him for the K’s.
Nevermind the .300 BA and steals, it wouldn’t be enough.
Kate
They could have had Wake just take Dice K’s start and have left Lester last night so probably a little of both.
Rule #1: NEVER feel sorry for the Red Sox.
Rule #2: if unclear, refer back to Rule #1!
Mick,
He would have been in AAA this year.
They would have never gone with a Gardner, Jackson, Swisher OF.
If not Granderson, they would have acquired another OF to play LF or CF.
I am leaving in a few minutes for my exciting weekend away
Hope evryone has a great weekend!!
Agreed SJ.
Also, haven’t the Yanks, in the past, always hyped their prospects beyond belief?
With the hopes of dealing them always in the back of their mind.
ERica -
Enjoy!!!
I hate a day without a game.
Makes it feel like Winter.
“They could have had Wake just take Dice K’s start and have left Lester last night so probably a little of both”
They won’t throw Wakefield against the Rays due to stolen base fears.
have a great time Erica
SJ
great rules
sadly enough I hope the rays sweep the sox this weekend, even tho it would be more beneficial to the Yankees for that not to happen
SJ – I LOVE your two rules! lol
sadly enough I hope the rays sweep the sox this weekend, even tho it would be more beneficial to the Yankees for that not to happen
=======================
how selfish and fearful of you
SJ, I wasn’t feeling sorry for the Red sox. I just didn’t want anybody see me smiling and hear me whistling happy tunes.
My guess is that the Yankees won’t call up anyone who is not already on the 40 man roster.
It’s not a question of service time, it’s just easier for the Yankees to not have to deal with designating out and adding players to the 40.
With that in mind, here are my candidates (not including the guys coming off the DL):
C: Cervelli
INF: Russo, Miranda
OF: Curtis, Golson, Huffman
P: Sanchez, Albaladejo
sorry – I obviously didn’t mean Cervelli – meant Moeller. I know he’s not on the 40, but I think they’ll call him up anyway – as Chad said, standard operating proceedure to call up a third catcher.
pat August 26th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
GB
That’s why Lester was scratched last night.
Wakefield made Lester’s start and Lester is making Dice K’s.
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pat, you have ruined my day. I thought I had the first BREAKING NEWS of my LoHud career.
SJ….I just had breakfast with some baseball friends & a few I never met before, and it was mentioned that The Yanks came real close to obtaining Dan Haren last month………That was until the Angels came in with Joe Saunders…….General take is that AJ Burnett could be the key to Octobers success foe The NNY’s……Tampa can be troublesome, however with Pena struggling there’s a hole in the lineup……..Cinncinati Reds are a team that could and very well may stun the baseball world come October………Atlanta vs. either Yanks or Tampa as scouts are getting ready to follow certain clubs for October
SJ44 August 26th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Rule #1: NEVER feel sorry for the Red Sox.
Rule #2: if unclear, refer back to Rule #1!
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Nice!
Erica-have a great time!
LGY
Yeah actually the year before he hit 13 Hrs in 496abs across 3 levels.
where AJax actually changed his swing was last year in Scranton in an effort to cut down his strikeouts and improve his contact rate and he preceded to hit .350 this 1st half of the year but with no homers.
Then listening to the lack of power criticism he began to muscle up his swing trying to hit homers and slumped the second half of the season.
There are varying opinions on what his actual ceiling will be and it will be of interest to me how he develops going forward. What I see is a very quick bat and the ball jumps off his bat when he makes contact. When he does make contact it is consistently solid and the ball is squared up. I see a player who has a chance to get stronger and more sure of himself as he gets to know the league and adjust to this level of play and an extremely athletic player. I like his skillset.
With Tabata I see someone who is a natural hitter and a gift for the game of baseball. The game seems to come easy for him and that can be both a gift and a curse for him. Some guys take that talent for granted and kind of coast along. If he is someone who discovers that inner drive to everyday be the best player that he can he has a chance imo to be a great player. He too may never be a 30HR guy but I know that I he’s a player that I enjoy watching take an at bat very similar to how i felt watching Cano from the first time I saw him hit.
Mick
selfish- yes
fearful- no
wanting even more bragging rights over red sox fan sister- definitely!!!
Pat M
I am kinda rooting for the Reds…still have a soft spot for Miguel Cairo
John (NYC)
The Killer B’s. Brackman, Banuelos, Bentances. Who cracks the top 100?
Klaw (1:15 PM)
All three.
Mick,
Yes. The Dodgers used to do the same things back in the day.
Interestingly, the Yankees now have a much better farm system than people think.
It’s not Texas or Tampa but, it’s better than Boston’s IMO and has more potentially high end guys, especially on the pitching side, than many casual followers of the game/team may think.
Brackman, Betances and Banuelos are legitimate front of the rotation stud type guys.
Nova, Noesi, Warren and Phelps are eventually going to be pitching in the majors someday.
Further away, Marshall, Stoneburner and Ramirez show great promise.
I don’t know many organizations, definitely NOT the Red Sox, that have 10 pitchers at various stages of development, as those 10 guys.
That’s a lot of talent for an organization that didn’t even have a farm system worth talking about 5 years ago.
typo correction
“…who is a natural hitter WITH a gift for the game….”
where AJax actually changed his swing was last year in Scranton in an effort to cut down his strikeouts and improve his contact rate and he preceded to hit .350 this 1st half of the year but with no homers.
Then listening to the lack of power criticism he began to muscle up his swing trying to hit homers and slumped the second half of the season
–
This is anecdotal at best. The most likely change from his early season to his middle slump is that his BABIP went down to a sane level. He had a BABIP of .500 in the first month. If his BABIP goes down to around .330-.380 where it should be with his speed, he isn’t going to hit for that high an average because only puts the ball in play in 70% of his ABs.
Alex C (Miami FL)
KLaw, I know the Red Sox just added some serious talent with this years draft but as of right now who has the better Farm System Yankees or Red Sox. Thanks in advance.
Klaw (1:21 PM)
Yanks have more near-in talent. Red Sox have more depth and had a stronger 2010 draft.
SJ
Has the recent influx of talent been the direction of Cashman?
Has he figured out that most acquired pitching is still a crapshoot, esp in NY, for some reason.
For example. Austin Jackson strikes out between 27 and 32% of the time up to the plate. If he gets 500 ABs and puts the ball into play 70% of the time he will have 350 fieldable balls. If he has a May BABIP of .500 he will bat .350
If he has a normal, human BABIP of .350 he will bat .245
That is basically the difference between Austin JAckson good, and Austin Jackson bad. A lot of luck on balls in play.
Problem with Tabata is, he’s probably closer to Cano’s age (27) than he is to his listed age (22).
That’s a view shared by most in the Pirates organization and that affects what his ceiling will be.
SJ
wow! you keep up that kind of talk and folks on here will confuse you with us “prospects huggers”! lol
“Yeah actually the year before he hit 13 Hrs in 496abs across 3 levels.”
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This is misleading. All his HRs came in Charleston and Tampa. He only played 1 game at AAA.
mick,
Yes. Cashman is the guy that put Damon Oppenheimer in charge of the draft, tripled the amount of scouts and crosscheckers in the organization, convinced the Steinbrenners to pour millions of dollars into their new facility in the DR and have them make a significant financial commitment to the amateur side of player development.
Both in over the slot dollars to draft picks and in the overall amateur budget.
Pat M,
That makes sense.
BTW, the SS they signed as an IFA is very highly regarded by a lot of baseball people.
The Rays thought they were going to sign him and the Yankees swooped in and got him.
The Yankee system has had a great year this year. Almost every significant prospect had taken a nice step forward. I am a Keith law fan so it’s nice to see him acknowledging our system
“Yanks have more near-in talent. Red Sox have more depth and had a stronger 2010 draft.”
What’s particularly interesting about that is that Law himself over and over has stated his preference for top end talent that has a chance to reach star level rather than “depth.”
That’s the basis for so much of his analysis of trades. Take the star not depth, etc.
You always take the star. And the yankees clearly have more of those players than the Sox.
And to start talking up a draft that took place and whose top players have just signed strains credulity.
SJ
In the long run this is the way to go and will ensure Cash’s legacy if these prospects come through more than FA acquisitions, with the exception of CC, of course.
His past FA pitchers have been hit and miss, more miss.
I have nothing against prospects or young players. Pat M and I have been touting Brackman all season on here and months before Frankie Pilliere’s scouting report on him, for example.
My issue is when folks overhype them or oversell guys that aren’t that good.
As in, most of the guys in the Red Sox farm system and with believing the Yankees can solve their “issues” right now by calling up a not ready for primetime kid like Montero.
On the flip side, it bugs me to no end the ridiculous overanalysis of Phil Hughes after every start.
The kid has exceeded every REALISTIC expectation anybody could have had for him but, its not enough.
It takes YEARS to be a top of the rotation starter in MLB. Hughes is on his way to that if he can healthy.
Sometimes, its best to remember that instead of hyperventilating over every start, good or bad.
CB….I remember being told of the 2-3 rule some years ago…….Trades check back after 2 years, draft picks check back after 3 years……..Kind of like a barometer for evaluations….Same thing applies to getting to the bigs, 2-3 years
Nick Johnson won’t be back. DFA him and open up a 40-man roster spot.
NJ is already on the 60 day, no need to DFA him. That would let another team claim him and exercise his affordable 1 year option.
Its ridiculous to praise the Red Sox draft this year, IMO.
Until these kids play pro baseball, you have no idea how good they are.
Name value is nice on draft day.
From hereon out, its about how they produce as professionals.
Call it the “Craig Hansen Lesson”.
The guy that draft “guru” Bill Madden said would decide the 2005 pennant race.
For the record, that was his draft year.
Only problem with your suggestion with Johnson is that he’s not on the 40 man roster. He’s on the 60 day DL and doesn’t count.
One of their ‘top 10 talents’ Brentz is already getting smoked in the NYPL
That’s the most recent 40 man roster, unless changes were made today.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/ro.....rk-yankees
There was a time when Joba Chamberlain was the most over analyzed young pitcher in baseball.
That crown has perhaps now been passed to another Yankee right hander….
I think it’s fine to praise the Red Sox draft this year but the praise should be taken with a grain of salt.
Yes they had a good draft, given the information we currently have. But what does that really mean? Almost nothing
Couldn’t ask for a more beautiful day in the Chicagoland area. Mostly sunny and a high of 75 degrees.
I’m sure the players will enjoy today immensely.
Should be really nice this weekend, too. San Diego weather.
Maybe the case with Tabata being older than his listed age but I’m not sure and if so I doubt that he’s 5yrs older….
I watch him and I see a player. It’ll be interesting to watch him over the next yr or two as well.
Law is just such a loser that even when he reluctantly has no choice but to give the Yanks props he has to qualify it and end up on an anti NY pro Bos note.
The Sox certainly don’t have more depth throughout the organization than the Yanks and I suspect in 2yrs most will feel the Yanks had the better draft.
Picturing a group of 12 year olds all wearing Ray-Bans…….
swbyankeesTT The Japanese Little League team playing in LLWS will visit PNC Field tonight. Will meet with Kei Igawa before the game. Should be fun.
Picturing a group of 12 year olds all wearing Ray-Bans…….
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This image made me laugh
good morning , The Sox had better draft slot than us, more first round or early picks, and drafted more ‘sure’ talents. It stands the reason they may have a better haul than the yanks did this year.
I do love the Billy Wagner move in which gave up almost nothing but also garner high picks for him. With Javy in the dumpster , the yanks prolly won’t 1st rounder next year. The by product overpaying free agent to sign with NY is when it’s time to offer arb, the Yankees are often reluctant to do so , being the fact that the would be free agent might accept arb for one year than his fair market value for multi years.
pat August 26th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Picturing a group of 12 year olds all wearing Ray-Bans…….
swbyankeesTT The Japanese Little League team playing in LLWS will visit PNC Field tonight. Will meet with Kei Igawa before the game. Should be fun.
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They’ll probably wonder why the winningest pitcher in Scranton history isn’t with the big team. I wonder if Cashman has looked into posting Igawa, pump up his stats, play up his legendary status and then hold secret bids from teams in Japan. I’m sure the Yanks could get a $10,000 bid.
Law is just such a loser that even when he reluctantly has no choice but to give the Yanks props he has to qualify it and end up on an anti NY pro Bos note.
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he seems like an arrogant douche whenever i read and hear his spews. but people seem to take his words as the ‘law’ , no pun intended.
re: Keith Law.
As SJ has stated in the past, Law has credibility. That particular statement really rubs me the wrong way though.
The Red Sox were ranked by him as the #2 overall farm system in ALL of baseball. #2.
Here’s his post on them:
2. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have more players in the top 100 than the Rangers and have almost comparable depth, but they don’t have the high-end prospects to match a Smoak, a Feliz, or a Martin Perez, all of whom are high-ceiling and nearly major league-ready. Boston has stuffed its lower levels with gambles on over-slot high school kids after the first two rounds, giving the Red Sox a chance to add those high-ceiling kids even though they don’t typically have a pick among the first 20 overall.
18. Casey Kelly
32. Ryan Westmoreland
53. Anthony Rizzo
56. Lars Anderson
86. Ryan Kalish
91. Jose Iglesias
98. Junichi Tazawa
The Yankees on the other hand had 2: 10- Jesus Montero, and 96- Manny Banuelos
What bugs me to no end, is the inconsistencies between rating criteria. Keith Law waffles behind liking high upside guys (in the draft), and Major league probable players that are in the higher levels when talking about farm systems.
Look at that list of Red Sox players, and you could have dreamed on Yankees players in a similar fashion:
Montero, Romine, Betances, Brackman, Banuelos, etc. These are all names that should be in every top 100. Add to that, Slade Heathcott, and Gary Sanchez now. That should give the Yankees the same 7 players the Red Sox had last year. In addition, I’d argue that list of 7 has SIGNIFICANTLY more upside than the Red Sox listed 7.
You’d think that a team with the #2 farm system overall would have been able to call up 1 impact level player this year after being ravaged by injuries? I haven’t seen that yet.
That’s why you have to truly question the biases of some of these so-called “experts”
Who cares what Laws opinions are? If you don’t like them, ignore them.
I personally like what he has to say but if it gets under your skin just ignore it…
New Post: Berkman ready and waiting to return
Law is begrudgingly giving credit to the Yanks farm this year because as a talent evaluator he has no choice in the matter as the yanks minorleague teams @ Hi-A, AA and AAA are all in 1st place and are being led by legit prospects and not career minor leaguers or filler guys.
Last year as Laird was destroying the AFL and leading the league in every offensive category as a 22yr old I asked him what his opinion of him was. law was in AZ watching the games at the time and his answer was that Laird in his opinion wasn’t a prospect and he’d struggle @ the AA level. He was leading the league in avg/hrs/slg and obps at the time.
How ironic he would go on to repeat that all world leading performance @ the AA level the following season.
I’d love to see what Law’s opinion of him now is.