The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Gardner leading off again

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Aug 31, 2010 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada C
Marcus Thames DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Ramiro Pena 3B

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263 Responses to “Gardner leading off again”

  1. mick August 31st, 2010 at 3:39 pm

    Smart move staying with Pena, he’s been clutch.

  2. CountryClub August 31st, 2010 at 3:39 pm

    Disco August 31st, 2010 at 3:36 pm
    The sense of bringing up Montero down the stretch is he would be a top 9 hitter on the team right away and play everyday.

    —————–

    Would Jesus come up tomorrow and hit better than Thames? Kearns? To me, the answer is no. So it makes no sense to start his clock at age 20.

  3. ac1 August 31st, 2010 at 3:40 pm

    1 more day until hopefully we get some bench help to carry the team through the home stretch. I guess i would hope they would bring back Berkman, Colin Curtis/Chad Huffman, another catcher, another infielder? Miranda?

  4. Shame Spencer August 31st, 2010 at 3:42 pm

    Erica in NY -

    Red Lobster seems like just the right spot, doesn’t it? I was thinking Chevy’s but on second thought I felt like it might be a bit too ritzy. No offense Doreen, but thats like one of those places where you propose to your girlfriend or something. Red Lobster is more spot on.

  5. austinmac August 31st, 2010 at 3:43 pm

    Irreverent Discourse,

    I meant to say he BABIP was low since my theory is a lot of ball were put in play, but not too many were hit hard. I do think a line drive percentage of 18% is low, is it not?

  6. m August 31st, 2010 at 3:46 pm

    Good move staying with Pena because he fields the position better.

    Good to see Gardner leading off. He’s 7th in the AL in OBP. That’s great. Unfortunately his Slugging % is 7 points lower. But, he does get on base.

  7. Erica in NY August 31st, 2010 at 3:46 pm

    Shame Spencer August 31st, 2010 at 3:42 pm
    Erica in NY -

    Red Lobster seems like just the right spot, doesn?t it? I was thinking Chevy?s but on second thought I felt like it might be a bit too ritzy. No offense Doreen, but thats like one of those places where you propose to your girlfriend or something. Red Lobster is more spot on.
    ****************

    Nothing says “I love you” like a Cheddar Bay Biscuit. LOL

  8. Erica in NY August 31st, 2010 at 3:48 pm

    Fran the original August 31st, 2010 at 3:22 pm

    Erica,

    Congraulations. The last time I was in a Red Lobster it was held up at gun point and we hid in the back room until the police got there.
    *******************

    Thats horrific.
    I am scared to ask, which Red Lobster was it/

    Btw- for clarification, I am not the little blonde girl who ate 76 shrimp. I am not little or blonde. I also tapped out at 28

  9. mick August 31st, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    # Shame Spencer August 31st, 2010 at 2:49 pm

    You guys can’t be serious..

    If we take Doreen out to dinner it needs to be at a classy place like Red Lobster.
    ======================================================
    Doreen has yet to eat at the Ga. Pig.

  10. Fran the original August 31st, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    Erica,

    I thought you were the winner. Oh well.
    It was the Red Lobster old Old Country Road right off the Meadowbrook Pkwy.

  11. MTU August 31st, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    Erica-

    “I also tapped out at 28″

    That must mean something. ;)

  12. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    I hope that in the future, the Yankees develop a young Latin closer named Jesus. Imagine the headlines…Imagine the bumper stickers that could be sold…”Jesus Saves” and all of the little fish signs and pictures of fish, chalking up the strikeouts. Imagine the political activists crying about separation of church and state when the Yanks win a WS and the headlines mention Jesus visiting the White House.

  13. kd August 31st, 2010 at 3:51 pm

    i see the civility has returned

    posada catching two days in a row is a good sign

  14. Patrick August 31st, 2010 at 3:52 pm

    I would go to Red Lobster solely for those cheddar biscuit things….

  15. YankFanCA August 31st, 2010 at 3:52 pm

    I am awaiting the hit series, “Lost In Trenton”, where a washed-up, unproductive veteran is forced to stay within city borders until the end of the baseball season.

  16. mick August 31st, 2010 at 3:53 pm

    An all-Jesus battery is the way to go.
    I could see Met and RS “converts” rooting for their born-again Yankees.

  17. Erica in NY August 31st, 2010 at 3:54 pm

    MTU August 31st, 2010 at 3:50 pm
    Erica-

    ?gI also tapped out at 28??

    That must mean something.
    ********************

    Hahaha.

    I knew the Yankees were going to win the World Series last year when I bought something in October right before the playoffs started and there was a sticker inside that said “Inspected by No. 27″ LOL

  18. pat August 31st, 2010 at 3:54 pm

    MLBFanHouse: The Red Sox have traded Manny Delcarmen to the Rockies

  19. Carl August 31st, 2010 at 3:55 pm

    # pat August 31st, 2010 at 3:54 pm

    MLBFanHouse: The Red Sox have traded Manny Delcarmen to the Rockies

    But Gammons said he was going to be the best setup man ever

  20. mick August 31st, 2010 at 3:56 pm

    # pat August 31st, 2010 at 3:54 pm

    MLBFanHouse: The Red Sox have traded Manny Delcarmen to the Rockies
    ==========================
    The realignment begins.

  21. PagsandRags August 31st, 2010 at 3:56 pm

    It doesn’t look like Jesus will be making an appearance at Yankee Stadium other than as a spectator. The Yankees don’t want to add him to the 40 man roster unless they absolutely have to. And I can’t say that I blame them. Let him play in the IL playoffs and get a taste of the postseason down there. He’s only 20 years old. The Yankees have plenty of talent on the bench for the stretch run when Berkman returns. They will always have two of Berkman, Thames, Gardner, Granderson, Swisher and/or Kearns on the bench because only one of them can DH and three can play the OF.

    Plus you’ll have an even stronger bench if Posada, Jeter or A-Rod DH’s bumping one of those guys to the bench as well. My guess is that the Yankees would call up Chad Moeller (once he’s added to the 40 man again). I don’t see why they would call up any of the other guys (Albie, Curtis, Miranda, Russo) on Sept. 1 when they could be finishing the season and playing for the IL title next week.

  22. Patrick August 31st, 2010 at 3:57 pm

    But Gammons said he was going to be the best setup man ever

    No silly that was Craig Hansen

  23. m August 31st, 2010 at 3:57 pm

    pat,

    Shock! He used to be nails. I wonder who’s coming to the Red Sox?

  24. Doreen August 31st, 2010 at 3:57 pm

    We have FOUR matching lineups in this last day of GTLU. Congratulations to:

    justinxdance27
    rb from LI
    Unknown
    rl15

    I want to thank everyone for putting up with my occasional goof-ups and forgetting to start GTLU at times. It was a lot of fun for me.

    I appreciate all the warm wishes and I would like to say that I knew I could count on mick to offer the one prize that would mean the most – a meal at the Georgia Pig!!! :lol: :) But if you get me a prize, you have to get Erica a prize – she started the whole thing!!!! Seriously, I really simply appreciate the appreciation. No prize necessary.

    I am now going to finalize the standings and I have prepared a “Final GTLU Report” that I’ll post on the GTLU page (“click on my name to get there”).

  25. MTU August 31st, 2010 at 3:58 pm

    m-

    “Rockies Acquire Manny Delcarmen
    By Tim Dierkes [August 31 at 2:49pm CST]
    The Rockies acquired reliever Manny Delcarmen from the Red Sox for minor league righty Chris Balcom-Miller, tweets WEEI’s Alex Speier. The Rockies were known to be seeking relief help given Matt Belisle’s heavy workload and Rafael Betancourt’s abdominal strain. At 3.5 games back in the wild card, Colorado has a 15.9% shot at the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus.

    Delcarmen, 28, has a 4.70 ERA, 6.5 K/9, and 5.7 BB/9 with seven home runs allowed in 44 innings this year. His control took a turn for the worse after the ’07 season, and his fastball velocity has been down a tick the last few years.”

  26. Long Time Lurker August 31st, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    How about hockey: “Jesus saves, Crosby with the rebound . . . he SCORES!!!”

  27. m August 31st, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    There must be a marked contrast between the feelings of being traded from the Yankees and those of being traded away from the Red Sox.

  28. upstate kate August 31st, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    congrats to today’s winners and thanks again to Doreen and of course Erica for coming up w/ the idea in the first place.

    Mick just isn’t gonna let the GA pig thing die, is he?

  29. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    Gammons tauts CC as the CY over Buccholz.
    Respect.

  30. justinxdance27 August 31st, 2010 at 4:02 pm

    I knew the Yankees were going to win the World Series last year when I bought something in October right before the playoffs started and there was a sticker inside that said “Inspected by No. 27? LOL

    I saw a big painted 27 on the street.

  31. Joe from Long Island August 31st, 2010 at 4:02 pm

    I guess the Red Sox are throwing in the towel, if they’re dealing their bullpen. Not like they have a ton of other options there.

    Doreen – though I didn’t participate that much, you did a great job with GTLU, and are a good sport. What are you going to do now with all your spare time?

  32. ac1 August 31st, 2010 at 4:02 pm

    So just a thought…. if the Yankees do not get Cliff Lee in the offseason, where do they go from there?

  33. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:02 pm

    Erica in NY August 31st, 2010 at 3:54 pm
    MTU August 31st, 2010 at 3:50 pm
    Erica-

    ?gI also tapped out at 28??

    That must mean something.
    ********************

    Hahaha.

    I knew the Yankees were going to win the World Series last year when I bought something in October right before the playoffs started and there was a sticker inside that said “Inspected by No. 27? LOL

    ———————————————————————————————————————-

    The Yanks have moved well past “Inspector 12″ so, I assume you weren’t buying any hanes underwear.

    “They don’t say “Hanes” until I say they say “Hanes”.

  34. ac1 August 31st, 2010 at 4:03 pm

    Gammons tauts CC as the CY over Buccholz.
    Respect.
    __

    Peter Gammons is a homer, but he also knows something about baseball.

  35. m August 31st, 2010 at 4:04 pm

    Thanks, mtu

  36. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:04 pm

    Up. Kate-
    My life will be complete when I hear Doreen has eaten at the Ga. Pig.
    Then I might stop.

  37. rb from LI August 31st, 2010 at 4:04 pm

    Woo hoo! I wish I could play more often, it’s fun to win! :)

  38. UnKnown August 31st, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    Great way to end the season of GTLU. Can’t wait for next year. Thanks Doreen

  39. West Coast Yankee Fan August 31st, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    Aroldis Chapman just hit 105 on a couple of guns Friday and 100-104 during the same outing. Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse quoted a scout saying Chapman’s four-seamer was the “best fastball I have ever witnessed.”

    I wonder what the odds are that he stays healthy?

  40. SJ44 August 31st, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    Funny Craig Hansen story.

    He’s in the Pirates system now. A few weeks ago, while my nephew started catching bullpens again, they told him not to catch Hansen’s bullpen because he was so wild, they were afraid he would get hurt. lol

    This is the guy Peter Gammons called the “best setup man in the AL East” a few years ago and Bill Madden ripped the Yankees for not drafting him.

  41. m August 31st, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    ac1,

    I think they try very hard to convince Andy to come back (3 peat?).

    CC, Andy, AJ, Hughes + Nova?

  42. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    Speaking of winners.
    Has anyone seen or heard from the 10 phantom winners of the autographed balls?

  43. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:06 pm

    That’s all I’m saying. One cannot definitively know why this has happened because that’s an issue of substantive context that’s outside of the data.”

    CB-

    If you go back and look at my original argument it was that we couldn’t attribute Swisher’s improvement to any particular thing. I agreed it could have been due to the off-season work, but said it was just as likely it wasn’t and was “random”.

    Now, by random, I mean that the Swisher’s results could be the result of a lot of what I think of as “noise”.

    Now, I agree, the noise could have various complicated underlying causes which render the noise not truly “random”, as a statistician might think of it, and could instead be the result of chaotically interacting events which could be modeled if we just had enough data, a sufficient theory and plenty of computing power.

    But really, when it comes to baseball, I don’t see much practical difference between the two.

    I am still waiting to see why Swisher’s improvement this year can’t be “noise”.

    Do I care? Not really, I am a big Swisher fan and have always been. I’m just glad he’s having a good year. But I do get my back up when I am told, without adequate basis, that I don’t know what I’m talking about and am somehow “unscientific”, especially from someone I generally agree with (although lately I believe you have been wandering from the true path).

  44. RayVT August 31st, 2010 at 4:06 pm

    Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 3:30 pm

    Hello Wave! Go Hokies!

    I actually think Nick?s results are based on both Coaching and random. LOL! Not trying to be a diplomat here, but here is why.

    Nick changed his batting stance, his approach to swinging, and his swing. His stance allows him to see the ball better. His hands use to move quite a bit and that can be distracting & keep him from seeing the pitch recognition quickly. (These are coaching!)

    On the random side, confidence is playing a factor as well. Since the coaching seems to have taken, then Nick?s self confidence has increased and the results tend to follow. (This is the random side.)

    Even though I agree with SJ that stats are an individual year to year thing, the proof of his approach being tied to coaching (good that is), will be shown in the next year too. I suspect it will. Given the drastic change in approach, stance, swing & even studying tendencies of pitchers, I believe it is predomintely coaching and only tweaks will be needed next year to adjust to the pitcher?s changes for him.

  45. Joe from Long Island August 31st, 2010 at 4:07 pm

    SJ – that’s funny for us, not so much for poor Craig Hansen ;)

  46. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:08 pm

    Hansen was great in high school and at St. Johns.
    Saw him pitch many times.
    At the time he looked like a keeper.
    Maybe the RS rushed him.

  47. m August 31st, 2010 at 4:09 pm

    So, somebody mitch? wrote that the Boston will make it, at the expense of the Rays or Yankees? And he thinks it might be the Yankees because of our rotation? Even though he started out by saying our bullpen was terrible?

  48. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:10 pm

    Hansen started at Glen Cove HS, they converted him to relief at St. Johns.

  49. upstate kate August 31st, 2010 at 4:12 pm

    m
    that was an article by “wild thing” Mitch Williams
    it is on the mlb website

  50. jacksquat August 31st, 2010 at 4:12 pm

    m August 31st, 2010 at 4:05 pm
    ac1,

    I think they try very hard to convince Andy to come back (3 peat?).

    CC, Andy, AJ, Hughes + Nova?

    I think signing Cliff Lee is about as close to guaranteed as you can get in baseball.

  51. m August 31st, 2010 at 4:13 pm

    kate,

    I think he needs to see the eye dr. ;)

    One of my daughters just order Rx glasses with those Charlie Sheen frames. :yuck:

  52. ac1 August 31st, 2010 at 4:14 pm

    I think they try very hard to convince Andy to come back (3 peat?).
    __

    Even with Lee i hope for this. I just hope andy doesnt see this injury as a sign that it is time to go.

  53. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:14 pm

    RayVT-

    Leave it to you to be the peacemaker! I hope you are right. It would give me no pleasure at all to see Nick go backwards next year, just to win an internet argument. :)

    But, the reason I am fighting this so hard is that there is something nagging me that people somehow don’t think Swisher was a good hitter before this year. Swisher was a good hitter, a very good hitter, before this year, who is having an excellent year this year.

  54. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:15 pm

    CC, Andy, AJ, Hughes + Nova?
    =======================
    With Lee, what happens to Nova?
    What if he is lights out?
    If he is, do they trade him in a major deal?

  55. CountryClub August 31st, 2010 at 4:17 pm

    Nova would just go back to AAA and would be a phone call away when the Yanks need a 6th starter.

  56. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:17 pm

    Swisher always had a great eye.
    This year, for some reason, he has become a much better hitter for average.
    He seems to get less 3-2 counts but is more aggressive.

  57. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:18 pm

    mick-

    If Nova is “lights out”, as you say, we are glad this year, and then he can be next year’s Sergo Mitre.

  58. Bronx Jeers August 31st, 2010 at 4:18 pm

    I predict a Sox funeral tonight in Baltimore.

    A good Poe story might be fitting to mark the occasion. What shall it be?

    The Pit and the Papelbon or The Fall of the House of Youkilis ?

  59. m August 31st, 2010 at 4:18 pm

    No, you don’t trade him. You need good 6th & 7th starters if you’re going to contend all season.

    At some point, though we have to clean house a bit. But the Yankees don’t usually trade for big pieces.

    Of course, Granderson is theoretically a big piece and Swisher ended up being a big piece. But we’re not going to get the Adrian Gonzalezes and Joakin Sorianos of the world. :P

  60. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:19 pm

    Nova is like a 6th starter right now, with Phil to possibly miss a start , Andy out and Moseley/Javy iffy.

  61. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:21 pm

    Nova is also breathing down the neck of AJ.
    AJ feels it too, watch for a big game out of him tomorrow.

  62. SJ44 August 31st, 2010 at 4:23 pm

    I think its fair to say he was an average hitter.

    He wasn’t a “very good hitter”.

    He never hit for a high average.

    He was trending downward for three years until last year.

    Very good hitters don’t do that.

    Even in his improved year last year, he has maddening periods of inconsistency.

    Topped off by a very poor post-season which initiated the swing changes.

    He is now on pace to have the best year of his career.

    When that happens, I think its more than just a random act.

    Especially given the changes he made this off-season.

  63. Giuseppe Franco August 31st, 2010 at 4:25 pm

    I think if it was that easy for Burnett to feel the heat and perform well (ie: Nova breathing down his neck), he would have turned things aroung a long time ago.

    That’s not to say that he can’t do it, but I don’t think Nova pitching well is going to motivate Burnett anymore than he already is.

  64. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:25 pm

    Is K Long that good?
    You don’t hear these stories on other teams.

  65. champ809 August 31st, 2010 at 4:25 pm

    Mick

    or maybe in that scenario the Yanks can flip Nova, Romine and Grandy to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp…..

    a lineup of;

    Gardy
    Jeter
    Tex
    ARod
    Cano
    Kemp
    Swish
    Jorge
    Montero

    would be murder

  66. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:27 pm

    AJ seems to need some outside motivation to pitch well.
    He is definitely a different breed of bird.
    When has another pitcher threatened his job?
    This appears to be his bottom.

  67. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:27 pm

    Odd how Swisher’s big change as a hitter has coincided with his 100% improvement as an outfielder. That spells hard work and a lot of help from somebody. He didn’t learn that from watching Tom Emanski videos.

  68. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:28 pm

    SJ44-

    I am willing to have another fight with you over Nick Swisher if you insist.

    I won it last year and I will win it again.

    He had an OPS+ of 129 last year, which is by any definition an above average hitter.

    He had an off year in 2008, but had OPS+ of 125 and 126 in 2006 and 2007, which is not “trending down for three years”.

    But I would prefer to just get along.

  69. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:28 pm

    Kemp has had his issues this year

  70. champ809 August 31st, 2010 at 4:28 pm

    If Nova keeps this up his value in the offseason may be to high not to cash in on.

    Especially when you consider that Scranton will still be stacked with insurance arms like Phelps, Noesi and Mitchell next season.

  71. Carl August 31st, 2010 at 4:28 pm

    K-Long has a man crush on Barry Bonds. The Yanks should invite him to the stadium.

  72. Eric UWS August 31st, 2010 at 4:29 pm

    I played against Hansen in college, the guy was nasty. But a cocky SOB.

  73. SJ44 August 31st, 2010 at 4:29 pm

    I wouldn’t trade 3 guys for Matt Kemp.

    I’d just sign Crawford, move Gardner to CF, and move Granderson if you want to change the OF.

    Mainly because Crawford is a better player than Kemp.

    IMO, I don’t think either event will take place.

  74. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:29 pm

    Swish is also in much better physical shape this year.
    Plus he changed his goofy hair style.

  75. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:29 pm

    Manny Del-Carmen was just traded to the Rockies for a single A pitcher

  76. champ809 August 31st, 2010 at 4:30 pm

    Mick

    Kemp equals classic “change of scenery” guy….and the leadership in the Yanks clubhouse is much stronger than in LA’s…

    I think he’d do well on the big stage and unlike a couple of years ago it probably won’t take Cano to get him over here this offseason.

  77. Doreen August 31st, 2010 at 4:32 pm

    There were 88 days of GTLU. Joe Girardi prevailed 42 out of 88 times.

    And yet, while no one person was able to match him at a high percentage, just over 50% of the time SOMEONE was able to guess what lineup Girardi was going with. But the more people played, it seems, the more they were stumped.

    I want to thank the regular players who kept the game going despite the odds and the seemingly constant refrain of “there were no winners in today’s GTLU,” or the more recently adopted “there were no matching lineups submitted in today’s GTLU.”

    Over the course of the season, there were 183 different participants in GTLU. 79 of the 183 played just once, with 8 of those content to win once and leave with a perfect score. Only 42 people played 10 or more times. Only 17 played 25% of the time. Then there were the absolute regulars, 13 people playing 33% of the time or better.

    On to the prizes.

    I decided on 4 categories for prizes this season.

    FIRST PRIZE – MOST WINS: FRAN. Fran was able to think like Girardi 21 times. Her nearest competitor was Erin, who guessed correctly 17 times.

    SECOND PRIZE – MOST GAMES PLAYED: ERIN. Erin played 75 out of 88. Fran actually played more, (80) but I wanted to spread the wealth.

    THIRD PRIZE – BEST WINNING PERCENTAGE (more than 10 games played): RL15. RL15 won 12 out of 26 times, a .462 winning percentage. Honorable mention: CT23, 8 of 19, a .421 wp.

    FOURTH PRIZE – MOST GAMES PLAYED WITHOUT A WIN: COMET. Comet was a stalwart, playing 17 times even though he didn’t win once. (I thought he won a game over the weekend, which would have lost him this prize!) Honorable mention: Chip with 14, 86w183 with 13 and Patrick with 10.

    Congratulations to all of you. Please contact Chad for my e-mail address. He is expecting to hear from the four of you. Then please e-mail me and I will arrange to ship your prize to you. It is just a little something fun, Yankee related, something boys and girls will both enjoy, and guaranteed not to collect dust.

    In about an hour or so, if you click on my site, you will see a report with a little more of my commentary and the complete final standings. Standings are sort by Wins and then Games Played from most to least.

  78. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:32 pm

    If Nova is that good, I wouldn’t give him up for Kemp.
    Good pitching is more valuable.
    Kemp is not the missing piece.

  79. RayVT August 31st, 2010 at 4:32 pm

    Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:14 pm

    LOL! Nick was a good hitter before this year!!! He had a lot more potential than results though. Now with the changes (physical & mental) he is excelling and his ceiling is much higher now than before. Once he gets comfortable with these changes, a tweak to help him put more backspin on the ball may lead to even more HRs as well as the gains in hitting. Pitch recognition is a learned thingy! If I could have mastered it, I would have played at least in the minor leagues. LOL! Nick’s stance gives him a better chance to see the pitch with less distractions.

  80. champ809 August 31st, 2010 at 4:33 pm

    SJ

    I’ve been espousing that same idea about signing Craw and trading Grandy with Gardy moving to CF as you know but I think that Kemp if he maxes his potential could be a better player than Craw.

    Kemp could be a perrenial 30HR/100run/100rbi/40steals guy…

  81. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:34 pm

    What a job by Doreen!
    Let’s give her a hand!

  82. Tom in N.J. August 31st, 2010 at 4:34 pm

    Bronx Jeers, Poe’s Pedroia inspired “The Imp of the Perverse” seems like a good choice.

  83. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:34 pm

    FIRST PRIZE – MOST WINS: FRAN. Fran was able to think like Girardi 21 times. Her nearest competitor was Erin, who guessed correctly 17 times.

    ———————————————————————————————————————-

    Nothing could possibly scare a guy more than a couple of hotties that think like a Joe Girardi type. brrrrrrr.

  84. RayVT August 31st, 2010 at 4:36 pm

    Thanks Doreen!

  85. SJ44 August 31st, 2010 at 4:36 pm

    You are taking one stat and trying to say it defines him being a “Very good hitter”.

    It doesn’t.

    OPS dropped for three straight years.

    He never reached his 2006 highs in HR, RBI, and runs scored.

    BA also dipped.

    He bottomed out in Chicago.

    “Very good hitters” don’t have such wild up and down swings in production.

    If you think that’s the case, then we have different definitions of what constitutes a “very good hitter”.

    Until this year, that has never been applied to Nick Swisher.

    Its not about winning an argument. Especially since you consistently disregard the changes the guy has made this year to make himself this good a hitter.

    Nick has never had a complete offensive season as he is having this season.

    When a guy has his best all around hitting season in his 7th year, that’s a significant development and not a random occurance.

  86. Pat M. August 31st, 2010 at 4:36 pm

    Matt Kemp in Pinstripes !!!! Put him in Rightfield, and he’d set a record for assists….No one but no one will attempt to run on him…..Yanks would have the best outfield in baseball…….Charlie Lau had a profound impact on many good hitters that improved under his tutor-ledge…..More than just random in my mind

  87. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:37 pm

    I was sure that I had won first place. I guessed all 88 line-ups and sent them telepathically.

  88. West Coast Yankee Fan August 31st, 2010 at 4:37 pm

    IMO, it’s pretty clear after almost ten years in the show that Burnett is what he is about a .500 pitcher with an ERA around 4.00. He will have some good games and he will have some bad games. There will be no miraculous change, not at 33 years of age. The problem is that those days that bad AJ shows up, he usually doesn’t keep his team in the game. We have three more years of this, to me, he’s a number 4 next year. If Pettitte is gone, you have to fill 1-3 with Sabathia, Lee and Hughes and go find a serviceable number 5 either internally or externally.

  89. CB August 31st, 2010 at 4:37 pm

    “Now, I agree, the noise could have various complicated underlying causes which render the noise not truly “random”, as a statistician might think of it”

    Well that’s an entirely different issue then. Outside of it’s formal context, I’m not sure what random means as it’s so vague. From what I saw in the conversation I thought you meant random in it’s formal sense.

    So then I understand you’re point i think. If by random you are referring to “noise” or variation that may or may not be sustainable then like most things it’s wait and see.

    It does look that Swisher is going to exceed his 95th percetile level of expectation for important indices of skill such as batting average. In general when that level of performance is evident it is worth considering why and for the team it is of enormous value.

    If the yankees were to attribute Swisher’s current performance as expected “noise” then they should probably trade him because he’s not only at peak value, but peak value he’s unlikely to ever assume again.

    Swisher’s performance is unlikely to be do to random behavior in it’s formal sense i.e. non-deterministic. If it was truly random then they should definitely trade him because again he’ll likely never come close to this again.

    If they think there’s a reproducible reason for this they should make him part of the long term foundation of the club.

    There is a reason for why he’s doing so well that goes past expected variation in his prior mean performance. It’s unlikely to be non-deterministic chance (though formal analysis would be required to ascertain that and I’m just eyeballing the numbers).

    Now we have no conclusive way to know what that causal reason is. It could very well be because he just go engaged and is very happy. It could be because he’s now acclimated to living in NY. One can think up an endless array of possibilites.

    That said, not all of those possibilities are of equal probability in being causal. I personally think the most plausible reason is that he’s changed his swing. This is based on my own observation, my general understanding of hitting and specific things that he and long have said. Does that prove this is the reason. No. This isn’t an experiment so you can’t really know. You can only arrange possible inference in it’s range of likely causal impact. That’s all you can do from observational data for the most part.

    Now even if Swisher’s improvement this year is due to a substantive change in his level of skill due to alterations in his hitting mechanics it is a separate question as to whether or not it will be a new found skill he can reproduce over the long hall. I think that’s what you’re saying if I understand what you mean by “noise.” That question can only be answered over time. I do think it’s also true however that the probability of him being able to sustain that skill over time is higher now than it was in say May.

    But being able to sustain newly found skill is not easy. Joba Chamberlain is a a good example of this. There was a real reason why he was so great in the minors and in the majors until he walked off the hill in Texas. There were real reasons as to why he threw so much better and harder than he did in texas. That wasn’t non-deterministic “chance.” At the same time however, for what ever reason, he was unable to sustain that relatively newly developed skill.

    Swisher could do something analogous. Now if he did and returned to prior expected performance then he’d still be a good ball player. Not nearly as good as he’s been this season but still valuable.

    I do think that the word random is used in baseball so frequently now and in so many different ways that I don’t even understand what the term is referring to anymore much like the term “regression.” This is particularly the case when people are discussing BABIP or FIP. If the terms aren’t used in their formal sense the it’s difficult to know what anyone is talking about.

  90. Bronx Jeers August 31st, 2010 at 4:38 pm

    I don’t consider my GTLU season a success unless it results in a championship. :wink:

    Thank you Doreen for a splendid season!

    (I realize I wasn’t technically a contestant but I still enjoyed it.)

  91. RayVT August 31st, 2010 at 4:39 pm

    Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:14 pm

    One more thing Wave, by Nick’s pitch recognition I mean the actual pitch (FB, Curve, Slider, Change etc) rather than zone or location. Nick has always had a very good eye for location. He now has a calmer approach and less motion before he hits. He is set & now uses his great vision for more than just location.

  92. mick August 31st, 2010 at 4:41 pm

    Another 3 years of nonsense from AJ, what a joy!
    Can’t help he will impede the progress of one of the many great pitching prospects we have in the minors.

  93. Erica in NY August 31st, 2010 at 4:41 pm

    Congratulations to the GTLU Winners!!!

    And to Doreen for surviving it all! :-)

  94. Erin August 31st, 2010 at 4:42 pm

    If this has already been posted, forgive me-I’m just catching up on all of today’s tweets. :)

    RiverAveBlues #nlcloser RT @MLBFanHouse: The Red Sox have traded Manny Delcarmen to the Rockies

  95. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:42 pm

    RayVT-

    I see you have embraced the “they made him better” Swisher theory.

    Oh well, you are still a nice person.

    I see I am not going to make a lot of headway with the crowd so I am going to quit trying to convince (as long as people don’t continue to raise the subject).

    Who knows, I might even be wrong! (But, I don’t think so.) :)

  96. Erin August 31st, 2010 at 4:44 pm

    TylerKepner So Manny says he feels like he’s 25 years old. Yet he’s not playing because he woke up too early today. OK.

    LOL

  97. CB August 31st, 2010 at 4:44 pm

    “Matt Kemp in Pinstripes !!!! Put him in Rightfield, and he’d set a record for assists”

    I’d trade for Kemp in a heart beat stick him in that big LF at yankee stadium and call it a night.

    I would love it if the Yankees could get kemp. He’s a big risk but he’s worth it, IMO.

    He has bat speed falling out of his pockets. What a swing.

    The dodgers are just such a dysfunctional situation now. Everything is broken there. It’s a zoo.

    If you take Kemp out of there and get him into the Yankee clubhouse with guys like Jeter and Alex and Posada and Mo. He could be lights out.

    I don’t see why he can’t get back to the prior levels of success and improvement he showed before.

  98. Erin August 31st, 2010 at 4:46 pm

    OMG, I can’t believe I won a prize!! Thanks Doreen! :D

  99. Doreen August 31st, 2010 at 4:47 pm

    Joe from LI -

    I’m definitely going to take a couple of afternoons and NOT go on this blog. :lol:

    Then one day I’m going to come back to this day and read CB’s and WYH’s posts, which I am too befuddled to even try to understand right now! :)

  100. tom tresh 15 August 31st, 2010 at 4:47 pm

    GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:37 pm

    I was sure that I had won first place. I guessed all 88 line-ups and sent them telepathically.
    ****************************************************************************
    I think I sent them to you telepathically

  101. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:49 pm

    Trade Nova, Colin Curtis and Adam Warren to the Dodgers for Kemp. add a finders fee and mail it to Frank McCourt.

  102. ac1 August 31st, 2010 at 4:49 pm

    or maybe in that scenario the Yanks can flip Nova, Romine and Grandy to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp…..
    __

    Doesnt Kemp just have one year left on his contract anyway? Is he a FA after next year, or still arb eligible?

  103. SAS August 31st, 2010 at 4:49 pm

    Thanks a million Doreen. You are terrific.

    Fran…amazing this year to be right 21 times. Congrats.

  104. LGY August 31st, 2010 at 4:50 pm

    CB,

    When people are talking about regression in reference to baseball what are they actually referring to? What would be the “formal” definition of regression in regard to baseball?

  105. SAS August 31st, 2010 at 4:51 pm

    Why trade Nova?

  106. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:51 pm

    om tresh 15 August 31st, 2010 at 4:47 pm
    GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:37 pm

    I was sure that I had won first place. I guessed all 88 line-ups and sent them telepathically.
    ****************************************************************************
    I think I sent them to you telepathically

    ———————————————————————————————————————-

    I’m not greedy, TT. I’ll share half of my yankee jelly beans with you.

  107. rb from LI August 31st, 2010 at 4:51 pm

    Doreen, I played only twice (work gets in the way), but enjoyed the challenge to think like Girardi even when I didn’t play. Next year maybe I’ll up my participation. I think I might be able to handle a 50% increase and play 3 times!

    Thanks so much for hosting. :)

  108. Pat M. August 31st, 2010 at 4:52 pm

    CB……I can’t even remember when I last saw a ballplayer with such raw ability…….Yeah leftfield would be the place for him, as Gardner would be better served in right…….I don’t how or how Kemp’s name came up , but the mere thought of him in the Bronx makes my head spin…….Superstar in the bud right now…..

  109. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:53 pm

    SAS August 31st, 2010 at 4:51 pm
    Why trade Nova?

    ———————————————————————————————————————-

    Because Noesi is better, though similar and Noesi should be ready by mid-season of next year.

  110. LGY August 31st, 2010 at 4:53 pm

    Kemp is arbitration eligible one more time in 2012.

    I haven’t really followed the Kemp saga.

    Are the Dodgers actually considering moving him in the offseason or is this a pipe dream trade?

  111. Irreverent Discourse August 31st, 2010 at 4:54 pm

    SJ44 – by your definition above, no one would be a very good hitter. there would be pujols, arod, and no one else.

    you are just splitting hairs to make a really dumb argument drag on.

  112. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:55 pm

    CB-

    I see why my use of the word “random” confused you. I was speaking loosely, I will try to remember to use the word “noise” when I mean “noise”, although I suspect that will just confuse different people.

    SJ44-

    Nick’s batting never declined in three straight years. I assume you are referring to 2006-2008. His three year triple slash results were:

    2006: .254/.372/.493
    2007: .262/.381/.455
    2008: .219/.332/.410

    Other than 2008 being an off year, it is difficult to see how that represents a 3 year decline. More than difficult, it does not demonstrate a three year decline. Perhaps on an unadjusted OPS there was a minor decline between 2006 and 2007, but OPS+ shows that in the context of the league the small decline was actually a small improvement.

    In addition, 2006 and 2007 were significant steps up from 2004 and 2005, so saying they represent a decline trend is nonsensical.

    Now, as to 2009, you are being misled by a tunnel-vision liike focus on BA. I grant you a .249 BA is nothing to brag about, but in the context of a .371 OBP and a .498 SLG Swisher was, in fact, an above average hitter- he contributed significantly more than the average hitter to his team’s offense. Surely you know that.

  113. ron August 31st, 2010 at 4:56 pm

    The yankees should try to trade for kemp & trade granderson.

    Don’t know what it would take but from what i hear & read it is possible.

    He is only 25.

    An outfield of kemp,gardner,swisher sounds pretty good & relatively young.

  114. hardwired7 August 31st, 2010 at 4:57 pm

    Q: Which player leads MLB in runs scored?

    A: Mark Teixeira

    Yeah, I was surprised too.

  115. CB August 31st, 2010 at 4:57 pm

    “When people are talking about regression in reference to baseball what are they actually referring to? What would be the “formal” definition of regression in regard to baseball?”

    I honestly don’t know. It changes all of the time and each person uses it a little differently I think.

    Even in articles about sabermetrics they don’t seem to use the word in the way it is in statistics so it’s very confusing.

    In general it usually refers to something about the player performance going back to some baseline level of exectation (though what those expectations are seems to vary – past personal performance, average league performance).

  116. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 4:57 pm

    I would trade Nova for Kemp in a heartbeat.

    Of course the Dodgers wouldn’t, but let’s not think about that.

  117. Latroy Farnsworth August 31st, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    Ron how about this: Sign Carl Crawford, move Gardner to center and trade Granderson.

  118. Doreen August 31st, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    Wow – talk of trading for Kemp and Cano’s name nary in sight!!! :lol:

  119. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    “In general it usually refers to something about the player performance going back to some baseline level of exectation (though what those expectations are seems to vary – past personal performance, average league performance).”

    Yes, although sometimes people also use it to refer to a player’s performance tending toward league average which is when I find it particularly confusing, as sometimes this is valid and sometimes it isn’t depending on context and all the while you aren’t positive the person didn’t really mean it in the sense you just used above.

  120. Irreverent Discourse August 31st, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    LGY – “regression” used properly is the belief that all players stats will generally trend towards the league average over time(or position average, or whatever depending on the stat). It only works when given enough data (sample size) and a strictly defined high-low cutoffs.

    example: if the league average runs scored (with a minimum 500 plate appearances) was 70… you could “expect” a player with 40 runs over 500 PA’s to score more the following year, and a player with 100 runs over 500PA’s to score less.

    used properly you do not necessarily eliminate, but put into perspective statistical outliers from one year to the next.

  121. CB August 31st, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    “…I can’t even remember when I last saw a ballplayer with such raw ability…….Yeah leftfield would be the place for him”

    Pat M.-

    I love his game and think he’s gotten a very bad rap in LA this season. The media firestorm about him has been so strange. Those dumb comments from Coletti? Why does that organization carry out it’s business in the press. Even Bowa got into it.

    I think he’d be perfect for that big LF at the stadium. Granderson or Gardner in CF. Swisher in RF.

    If there is any chance the dodgers feel compelled to sell him and a reasonable deal can be struck (ie. not including montero) I’d love to see him in the bronx.

    Unlikely but the dodgers are just so strange who knows what they’ll do next.

  122. blake August 31st, 2010 at 5:01 pm

    If Kemp is available this winter I’m sure the Yankees would have interest. In this hypothetical, who would be the odd man out in the Yankee outfield?

  123. G. Love August 31st, 2010 at 5:02 pm

    Wait one hot second.

    Theo didn’t trade Manny Delcarmen for Adrian Gonzales or Hanley Ramirez????

    No! I say NO! I don’t want to believe this.

    I’m going to curl up in a ball like Peter Gammons currently is and revisit his proclamation that Manny Delcarmen is the best middle reliever in baseball.

    I was sure a package of Manny Delcarmen, Bowden, the ghost of Trot Nixon, Wakefield, Kevin Cash and Josh Reddick was going to be more than enough to acquire every all star player in the league in a series of complicated 3 team deals.

  124. Irreverent Discourse August 31st, 2010 at 5:03 pm

    and that is the worst, roughest definition i could come up with… heh

  125. jesusmonterofordh August 31st, 2010 at 5:03 pm

    well nick swisher 1 year in chi was nothing short of a fluke.

    swisher been an above hitter his whole career.

    the thing was prior to this year he was streaky as heck. really hot or cold.

    he has more hits this year than last year, but he not walking as much as last year and k more too.

    he been more conistant this year with more power.

    his defense has been much better this year, is throwing is inconistant though

  126. David in Cal August 31st, 2010 at 5:03 pm

    If Swisher’s outstanding season results from changes he made, and not from random events, it follows that his 2011 should be pretty much projected from 2010 alone, rather than, say, an average of 2008 – 2010. It’s as if his 2008 and 2009 years represent a different batter.

    ++++I sure hope that’s true. I’m looking forward to Swisher being as good next year as he has been this year.

  127. CB August 31st, 2010 at 5:05 pm

    ““regression” used properly is the belief that all players stats will generally trend towards the league average over time”

    That’s not the case. The term first of all has a precise statistical meaning. The problem is that’s not how the term is utilized leaving a great deal of confusion.

    Often it’s used to refer to a player trending back to his own prior performance (not league performance). It can also be used to refer to “trending” back to a projected performance.

    The way you’ve used it is how the terms is often used for BABIP. Which makes the implicit assumption that BABIP is not normally distributed (which for the life of me I can’t understand).

    Regression as it’s used in baseball has become an almost meaningless phrase.

  128. Fran the original August 31st, 2010 at 5:08 pm

    Thanks again Doreen.

    Congratulations to Erin, RL 15 and Comet on winning too.

    GB,
    Thanks for all of the line-up hints you sent my way telepathically. Must have worked ;)

  129. CB August 31st, 2010 at 5:08 pm

    “If Kemp is available this winter I’m sure the Yankees would have interest. In this hypothetical, who would be the odd man out in the Yankee outfield?”

    Depends on whether they would want a cost controlled CF or were willing pay more in salary and take on Granderson off his own down year.

    Granderson makes much more than Kemp so I don’t think they’d want him.

    Many teams would be interested in Gardner. There’s a compelling case to trade him and sell high if you can get a high ceiling player in return. Gardner has a significant amount of trade value now.

    Cashing in that chip for a guy like Kemp would be an appropriate use of that value.

  130. LGY August 31st, 2010 at 5:10 pm

    Thanks for the responses.

    I try not to use the word regression, because I really don’t know how to properly use it. Still don’t but the responses reinforce that it is probably best to stay the track and not use the term.

    It seems as though people have taken regression and equated it with “get worse.”

    The problem is though to me it seems that they assign some statistical significance to the term “get worse” and portray what they are saying to be much more significant than it should be.

  131. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 5:10 pm

    “example: if the league average runs scored (with a minimum 500 plate appearances) was 70… you could “expect” a player with 40 runs over 500 PA’s to score more the following year, and a player with 100 runs over 500PA’s to score less.”

    ID-

    Here’s where I get confused.

    You could expect that from the average player on the average team, perhaps, but that wouldn’t be valid when speaking of say, Mark Teixeira, would it? On the other hand, if CC gave up a significantly higher than average BABiP one year it would be valid in projecting CC’s performance for the following year to “regress” to league average.

    It seems to me the validity of that particular application of the term “regression” depends on the stat, but perhaps I haven’t thought about it enough.

  132. Nick in SF August 31st, 2010 at 5:11 pm

    I’m trying to catch up here, why does Wave Your hate despise Nick Swisher?????

  133. kd August 31st, 2010 at 5:12 pm

    it’s be something pretty special to see kemp in pinstripes.

    where would he hit in the order? could he hit #2?

  134. reddog44 August 31st, 2010 at 5:13 pm

    Whoa, I sometimes forget we almost got Cliff Lee –

    YOU GUYS SEE THIS??

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....8;c_id=mlb

  135. GreenBeret7 August 31st, 2010 at 5:14 pm

    You’re welcome, Fran. I had no idea that you had intercepted the signals. They were supposed to be person to person….at least that’s what the telepathy company charged me for. We demand pix of you holding OUR prize.

  136. I Like Inge August 31st, 2010 at 5:14 pm

    Kemp is a dog

  137. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 5:16 pm

    CB-

    If a particular performance is arguably unrelated to either the player or the team (I guess pitcher’s BABiP is one such marker if you assume all teams have equal defense which is of course not true), then I understand “regressing” a projection of a player’s future performance toward league average.

    But when projecting a performance which is related to the individual and/or the team, I don’t understand regression toward league average. I understand regressing toward the player’s career norms, adjusting for team effects and so on, but not a general regression to league average.

  138. Fran the original August 31st, 2010 at 5:16 pm

    GB,

    LOL. OK. As soon as I collect my prize.

  139. Eroc August 31st, 2010 at 5:17 pm

    Why not just make Gardner the 4th OF when we acquire Kemp?

  140. mick August 31st, 2010 at 5:18 pm

    when we acquire Kemp?

  141. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 5:18 pm

    “I’m trying to catch up here, why does Wave Your hate despise Nick Swisher?????”

    Don’t presume too much on my kindly eye toward Nicks in general.

  142. Dylan August 31st, 2010 at 5:18 pm

    Not sure why everyone is so eager to trade Grandy. Give Kevin Long an entire offseason to fix that swing, and Granderson will become a .300 hitter. Look what he did to Swisher’s swing. Swisher batted .219 with the White Sox. He hit .249 last year, and is hitting .300 this year. That guy can take coal and turn it into diamonds!

  143. mick August 31st, 2010 at 5:20 pm

    Steve Kemp is making a comeback?

  144. ron August 31st, 2010 at 5:20 pm

    Latroy Farnsworth

    That would also work & we keep our prospects.

  145. blake August 31st, 2010 at 5:22 pm

    CB,
    Thanks for the response. Kemp, Granderson 2.0, and Swisher would be a mighty fine outfield. As you say though it would likely boil to how much payroll they’d be willing to add. Kemp will get expensive at some point…especially if he were to come to NY and have success.

  146. Nick in SF August 31st, 2010 at 5:25 pm

    Nick Johnson has already felt your wrath.

    Nick Markakis is duly warned.

    Nick Van Exel will remain in hiding.

  147. CB August 31st, 2010 at 5:26 pm

    “But when projecting a performance which is related to the individual and/or the team, I don’t understand regression toward league average. I understand regressing toward the player’s career norms, adjusting for team effects and so on, but not a general regression to league average.”

    This is why ideas and concepts are much more important than statistics.

    There’s so little conceptual clarity behind many of these analyses it’s hard to know what to make of them.

    Before you do any kind of statistical analysis you should have a worked out set of hypothesis and substantive reasons for doing the analysis you are choosing to do. But people don’t do that.

    What you “regress” to really depends on what the specific goals of the analysis are and what the underlying assumptions one is willing to make.

    The problem people seem to try to dance around analytically is that for many types of analysis a players career doesn’t have the amount of data they want. So even though that’s the right idea they just use say league averages because there’s more data there. Things like that seem to happen a lot though it’s hard to know because things aren’t explained well and formal ideas in statistics are given vague meaning in context.

    For example, I see no reason why conceptually it is accurate to “regress” a pitcher’s BABIP to league average. That literally means that people either think BABIP is not normally distributed or that there is literally zero skill involved and in turn the event is purely non-deterministic chance.

    Same for hitters. It’s kind of amazing. That’s like saying that a batted ball of the bat of Albert Pujols (who hits rockets more often than anyone) is as likely to be a base hit as a ball off Ramior Pena’s bat.

    But a lot of these assumptions and ideas are just put into play not because there’s a substantive reason for doing them but because they make math easier to do.

    And that’s a very common occurrence in many fields.

  148. pat August 31st, 2010 at 5:27 pm

    Manny used Joey Cora as an interpreter to meet with the Chicago media? :lol:

  149. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    Nick in SF-

    LOL! Although I like Nick Johnson and had not until just now considered the other Nicks…

  150. mick August 31st, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    Manny used Joey Cora as an interpreter to meet with the Chicago media?
    ===================================
    Can he interpret what CB just said?

  151. mick August 31st, 2010 at 5:29 pm

    Watch out Stevie Nicks and St. Nick.

  152. ron August 31st, 2010 at 5:31 pm

    reddog44

    It is easy to look back now but i don’t think pettitte was hurt at the time or burnett was such a concern.Hughes might also have been pitching better & we had to worry about overkill.

    Cashman probably sweetens the pot if he could make that move now.

  153. champ809 August 31st, 2010 at 5:33 pm

    I would think the Yanks would be more inclined to trade Grandy in a package for Kemp than Gardner from a payroll standpoint.

    To me a package of Grandy- to replace Kemp in CF- an arm like Nova and Romine a local kid that fills a need @ C for the Dodgers may get it done for Kemp coming off of a down year and a contentious relationship with management.

    An outfield of Kemp in LF, Gardner in CF and Swish in RF with Curtis as the 4th OF’er next season would be the best in the game potentially.

  154. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 5:34 pm

    “For example, I see no reason why conceptually it is accurate to “regress” a pitcher’s BABIP to league average. That literally means that people either think BABIP is not normally distributed or that there is literally zero skill involved and in turn the event is purely non-deterministic chance. ”

    I suppose you could look at variance from year to year in a pitcher’s BABiP, over all pitchers over all time, and if you found no correlation you could conclude any variation was the result of chance.

    In fact, I believe that is the claim made with respect to the average pitcher. I don’t know if that is true or not, but there cannot be many similar “stats” in baseball.

    For instance, let’s say league average HRs one year is 16. If Teixeira hits 35 one year, that doesn’t mean he is more likely than not to hit less than 35 the next, does it?

  155. stuckey99 August 31st, 2010 at 5:35 pm

    Dear lord, this Kemp thing is going to take root and we’re not going to stop hearing about it until next April.

  156. CB August 31st, 2010 at 5:44 pm

    “I suppose you could look at variance from year to year in a pitcher’s BABiP, over all pitchers over all time, and if you found no correlation you could conclude any variation was the result of chance.”

    That’s not something statistics can primarily tell you. That’s an idea that requires a well grounded theory behind it.

    Analysis is supposed to combine theory and statistics. In baseball there is almost no theory so it turns into a what statistical “fishing expeditions.”

    One of the problem with player level analysis in baseball is time. Player skill changes over time. So even if you didn’t find some level of correlation it’s hard to know what to make of it.

    But more than statistics the issue is better made concrete by clarifying concepts. Is it plausible to believe that when mariano rivera throws a pitch and contact is made that there’s an eqaul probability of it turning into a base hit as when kei igawa does?

    That seems completely implausible to me.

    But if you are willing to assume that it makes math much easier to do and makes inventing new metrics much more easy as well.

  157. Wave Your Hat August 31st, 2010 at 5:55 pm

    CB-

    I’m not sure I agree.

    If you do an analysis and discover there is no correlation between a pitcher’s BABiP from one year to the next, that there are no factors highly correlated with pitcher’s BABiP, why can’t you then develop a theory which says “with respect to balls struck in fair territory and inside the park, the pitcher has no control over where the ball lands”?

    I don’t think there is anything conceptually wrong with theory trailing the study, rather than preceding the study, as long as there is solid reasoning behind the theory once you have one.

  158. CB August 31st, 2010 at 6:05 pm

    “I don’t think there is anything conceptually wrong with theory trailing the study, rather than preceding the study, as long as there is solid reasoning behind the theory once you have one.”

    There’s not. And theory building is often an iterative endeavor. But it’s difficult to utilize observational data for these purposes because they are subject to bias that can’t be controlled for at all without an initial theory to begin with.

    But right now there is almost no theory in baseball. It’s mostly statistics. There needs to be some kind of validated models to start off with that seed the iterative process.

    A good example of this is how defense independent pitching put the statistics before the concepts. It made an assumption to create a very narrowly defined statistics that has now grown in its scope of use to where it far surpasses the extend of the original idea.

    Which is how you get people using FIP to calculate WAR and thinking it’s “advanced.”

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