CC gets to 19 wins, Yankees sweep away A’s
Posted by: Sam Borden - Posted in Misc on Sep 02, 2010 
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On a hot, steamy day in the Bronx, CC Sabathia was dominant (again) and the Yankees beat the A’s (again) to finish off a four-game series sweep.
Sabathia, who allowed just one hit over eight shutout innings, is now only one win away from the first 20-win season of his career. Curtis Granderson hit two homers (after coming off the bench to replace Nick Swisher) and Jorge Posada added a shot of his own to push the Yankees to the 5-0 victory.
What gives me infinite pleasure is that Gammons did a piece about how incredible the A’s pitching staff was over the weekend and the Yankees pretty much blew that up.
CC is the man. Worth the $$$$ he is being paid.
A different guy contributing to the win everyday. Good team baseball.
CC=Ubermensch
This should lock up the Cy Cy for CC.
Take that Larish, Braden, and Suzuki. You 3 ….. ….. ……. Take that sweep and tell Braden’s grandmother to stick it!
This should lock up the Cy Cy for CC.
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still a month left, and his era is still not low enough…
Derek Jeter’s bases loaded numbers are eye poppingly bad. Yankees hit 0.439 0.487 0.735 1.222 with the bases loaded sans Jeter
CC is a FRIGGIN STUD..
2 men on no outs, no problem. poise, smarts, and talent.
He is a dream.. BTW Cy Young voters how about innings pitched….
there are 2 candidates for CY young; cc and king felix end the story………
that two-strike changeup is like Thor’s Hammer
(or the Borg – resistance is futile)
jeter cannot drive in a friggin run under almost any circumstance.
he infrequently gets the ball out of the infield.
cano was lost in space today.. his AB’s were atrocious, terrible baserunning mistake, etc..
CC would win the CY if the season ended today.
nice win, guess it wasn’t a trap game after all
if CC gets to 20, how can he not win the Cy Young?
and YAY Granderson
If Joba was warming up instead of Robertson today, makes me wonder if Robertson wasn’t available? Some slight injury?
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It seems like something is going on. At 1st I thought he was in the dog house but something must be bothering him. He gave up 2 homeruns the last 2 times he pitched so maybe it’s his arm. Hopefully not but I am sure someone in the media will ask soon.
# mick September 2nd, 2010 at 4:01 pm
Robo has been ineffective lately, slipping to Wood and Joba.
nice win, guess it wasn’t a trap game after all
if CC gets to 20, how can he not win the Cy Young?
and YAY Granderson
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why do people still value wins so much? wins is the worst way to evaluate a pitcher… felix hernandez is the front runner and he’s 10-10.
Yankees killing the competition. Red Sox pretty much out of it. Looks like smoothe sailing ahead.
Cano should get tomorrow’s game off. He definitely looks like he needs it.
He gets 21/22 wins and finishes with a 2.90 something era, he’ll get the CY.
The team is really starting to fire on all cylinders.
And that truly starts with the big man. CC has been an absolute lock. What a luxury for a team to have a player like this. Every 5th day he gives you an enormous probability to win. It’s almost as if you can put one game in the bank every five days.
Win 2 of the remaining 4 starts and you’re playing .600 ball.
Tex has been terrific for the past two months. Robbi has been arguably the best player in the AL (though i do think he could use a few off days as he’s played a ton).
Posada is finally out of his funk at the plate and is catching more (I’d guess it was his knee bothering him that caused both problems). Posada still has terrific bat speed and hands as we saw from that home run. Despite all of the time missed Posada has a chance to hit 20 HR. He has an .861 OPS which is amongst the best in baseball for catchers.
Swisher has been hitting well again after a slight dip in form at the plate. Thames of course has been enormous.
And though it’s still early, it does appear that the yankees have added another potential weapon in Curtis Granderson.
He looks great at the plate. Some people may want to write this off as a small sample size or random chance but just look at the quality of at bats against lefties he’s had since reworking his swing.
There is absolutely no way he could have hit against lefities like he has earlier this year. There was no way given how early he was committing his swing before it got altered.
In this series he’s gotten a hit off of Brett Anderson whose stuff is just about as good as any lefty in the game. And today he squared up an absolute rocket off a blevins who is a good relief pitcher and tough on lefties.
Berkman’s swing looked very good today. They have nice depth now with Kearns and Nunez added.
And all that is without Alex. I think the rest will do him a great deal of good – not only to help him recover from his calf but just to rest his hip up for the stretch and post season. The key for this team was whether they could stay in first without Alex. And they have done that and more.
Because CC is a winner, it’s not a coincidence and ERA is the same thing, he pitches to the scoreboard, a winner.
And the Warren Spahn award again!!
Robertson could be somewhat tired or sore or whatever, he was leaned on a lot right around when he assumed the 8th inning role. Either way though he had a decent bounce-back inning in the 9th of Tuesday’s game albeit in a blowout. Although the beauty of having Joba and Wood both throwing well out there means Girardi can give D-rob more of a breather if necessary
Robertson pitched fine on Tuesday. No homeruns, no hits, no runs.
“why do people still value wins so much? wins is the worst way to evaluate a pitcher… felix hernandez is the front runner and he’s 10-10.”
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Aren’t you basically contradicting your assertion that Felix is the front runner by asking why do people value wins so much?
why do people still value wins so much?
========================
quote of the year.
forget 20 wins, he could have 22 – 23.
I understand wins don’t count for everything, but they should count for something, and a pitcher who gets to 20 wins, IMO, is a worthy Cy Young winner
So if a pitcher wins 30 he might not get the CC, I mean CY.
“It seems like something is going on. At 1st I thought he was in the dog house but something must be bothering him. He gave up 2 homeruns the last 2 times he pitched so maybe it’s his arm. ”
Just a a guess but from how Robertson has looked and how he’s being used – I think his arm is tired right now. When the rest of the pen was collapsing he took on a lot of the weight and I think he’s just going through a tired period right now.
I don’t think Joe using Joba more is indicative of any issue with Robertson other than the shape his arm is in.
Robertson’s got good stuff and is poised on the mound. As long as his arm is ok he’s going to be a plus reliever in this league.
The ERA isn’t going to matter.
His chances of winning the Cy Young goes up with every start.
Cano and Jeter could both use a day off. I dont see either getting one until alex is back in the lineup.
Wins don’t mean anything. I understand that next year they will decide the division winners based on BABIP, not on wins. Now BABIP means something.
Maybe Robertson was going to pitch the 9th if Chamberlain or Wood was used in the 8th?
I’m thinking Swish is out tomorrow. They’re not gonna give Robbie a day off as well. Alex better be returning on Sunday.
I recall Joe saying that he thought one of the problems with Joba’s inconsistency was his not being used enough, not pitching enough. So, that might play into some of the Joba/DRob usage patterns.
Eduardo Nunez seems to make consistent solid contact. He stings the ball.
Very impressive so far…
If cc ends the year with a era in the 2′s it’s a slam-dunk cy young in my mind. Also, if he wins 21+ games it has to be a slam-dunk as well. So, unless cc falls apart, the cy young is his to lose.
I understand wins are not as important anymore, but to just shrug em off is crazy. CC doing what he is doing in Yankee Stadium during a pennant race is amazing.
At the end of the 8th, I was all ready to celebrate CC’s first shutout of the year. Low pitch count, few base-runners allowed. Seems like the perfect to day let CC finish what he started. Why did Girardi pull him?
CC is the front runner to win the CY Young at this stage in the season.
But Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the AL to date.
1 hit over 8 innings. Enough said?
And to only think he could have been 22-5 already. Count that cut short rain game at Femway where the Yankees won big bu Sabathia wasn’t elig due being one pitch away and then the 2 runs leads our good old friend Joba blew for him one against the Sox and one against the gulp… Indians. Love CC.
“And though it?s still early, it does appear that the yankees have added another potential weapon in Curtis Granderson.”
It says a lot about the Yankee organization to have talents like Granderson, Cano, CC, Tex, etc. stepping up as guys like Jeter and A-Rod are no longer elite performers. Superstars decline, that is inevitable. What probably wouldn’t have been expected 3 years ago is that the Yankees would have such immense, in-their-prime talent carrying the Yankee tradition forward. The rest of baseball should be pretty worried too, because it looks like this is just the beginning.
why do people still value wins so much? wins is the worst way to evaluate a pitcher… felix hernandez is the front runner and he’s 10-10.
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“front runner” is a little strong. He has a vocal minority behind him. But I don’t believe he’s the leader of the race. I’m not saying he should or shouldn’t be leading, just saying he’s most likely not.
how any Yankee fan can complain about anything after a 4 game sweep coming off a tough road trip is beyond belief. This is a team sport, not individual. They are 84-50 and in first place, who gives a crap who is playing well and who isn’t? If someone is slumping, like Jeter, it just means he will eventually break out of it, he’s a 1st ballot Hall of Famer, for crying out loud.
And to only think he could have been 22-5 already. Count that cut short rain game at Femway where the Yankees won big bu Sabathia wasn’t elig due being one pitch away and then the 5 RUNS NOT 2 leads our good old friend Joba blew for him one against the Sox and one against the gulp… Indians. Love CC.
Gained a 1/2 game on the idle Rays. Boston’s “tragic” number now at 20.
If CC finishes like this with say 25 wins, he is a shoo-in.
CC is the frontrunner for the Cy Young.
Wins do matter. Just because some stat geeks say differently doesn’t change that fact.
Are wins the only way to evaluate a pitcher? Of course not.
However, its a whole lot easier to pitch for a team going nowhere like the Mariners than it is to pitch, and expect to carry, a team like the Yankees.
djf September 2nd, 2010 at 4:15 pm
At the end of the 8th, I was all ready to celebrate CC’s first shutout of the year. Low pitch count, few base-runners allowed. Seems like the perfect to day let CC finish what he started. Why did Girardi pull him?
—————-
Because there is no reason to put that extra inning on his arm. This time of yr, in this heat, they should take every chance they can to rest him.
Kid,
Wins mean something in Cy Young voting because they matter to the voters. You can argue all you want that they shouldn’t matter, but the bottom line is that they are something the voters take into account, meaning…people will talk about wins when discussing the Cy Young candidates.
the only place Felix is the front runner for the Cy Young award is in the minds of the stats geeks who look at everything except the win-loss record to decide a pitcher’s worth. Fortunately the ONLY thing that really matters in the win-loss record, period. A pitcher goes out to the mound to win the game, it’s been that way for 140 years and isn’t likely to change.
Magic # down to 21
mick September 2nd, 2010 at 3:55 pm
Jack Curry makes Kim look unprofessional.
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Like night and day
“Magic # down to 21″
For division or WC?
“how any Yankee fan can complain about anything after a 4 game sweep coming off a tough road trip is beyond belief. ”
It is pretty odd after a great win for people to chose to yet again focus on Jeter having a bad game.
It has less to do with Jeter than making a personal point that has been made over and over and over.
Schadenfreude works in strange ways.
I have bought into the wins are meaningless sabermetric mantra in the past, but I think it is pretty hard to make that argument just watching what this staff has done over the course of the season.
Sabathia goes out there regardless of whether he has his best stuff or not and basically gives his team a chance to win every time out.
Hughes is a young pitcher who has struggled at times but always seems to recognize the situation in the game and not let things snowball if something goes wrong.
Burnett pitches awful half the time and great half the time, putting incredible pressure on his team to win the game when he is not awful.
I agree both Jeter and Cano need some down time, and hopefully with Arod back they will get it.
=====================================================
By the way, it does matter if a pitcher gets a win. How else do you get to the playoffs. Without CC we could be back 10 games…I assume another pitcher gets some wins.
However, its a whole lot easier to pitch for a team going nowhere like the Mariners than it is to pitch, and expect to carry, a team like the Yankees.
==================================
True SJ.
There is no guarantee of performance on a frontrunning team.
Pressure of a pennant race factors in.
why do people still value wins so much?
what he meant to say was why do they value wins on pitchers when voting for the Cy Young. A pitcher can give up 8 runs each day out, and as long as his offense gets 9 runs, the pitcher wins (if he pitched 5 innings). So you are telling me you can determine the best pitchers by win if that can happen?
Its a stupid stat that says more about the offense than the pitcher.
CC was brilliant.
“Magic # down to 21?
For division or WC?
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WC
# Yank 97 September 2nd, 2010 at 4:20 pm
mick September 2nd, 2010 at 3:55 pm
Jack Curry makes Kim look unprofessional.
————–
Like night and day
=============
Who is running the ship?
Do fans want to satisfy their eyeballs or are they interested in questions they would like to hear answered. Enough of “How did you do that, Curtis.”
Wins are very important in my mind when evaluating a pitcher….its a measure of how often a pitcher gives his team a chance to win….CC does it nearly every time out.
Howe Farr September 2nd, 2010 at 4:22 pm
why do people still value wins so much?
what he meant to say was why do they value wins on pitchers when voting for the Cy Young. A pitcher can give up 8 runs each day out, and as long as his offense gets 9 runs, the pitcher wins (if he pitched 5 innings). So you are telling me you can determine the best pitchers by win if that can happen?
Its a stupid stat that says more about the offense than the pitcher.
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it’s not as stupid as this post, show me a pitcher that has ever won 20 games with an ERA of 8. It you really believe that then you need to find another sport to follow because baseball isn’t your thing.
Howe Farr
And how many wins do you project a pitcher like that would get?
SJ44 September 2nd, 2010 at 4:19 pm
CC is the frontrunner for the Cy Young.
Wins do matter. Just because some stat geeks say differently doesn’t change that fact.
Are wins the only way to evaluate a pitcher? Of course not.
However, its a whole lot easier to pitch for a team going nowhere like the Mariners than it is to pitch, and expect to carry, a team like the Yankees.
———————————————————————————————————————-
It’s unfortunate that Pettitte came up with the injury, because he was #1 or #2 in the Cy Young race. He was sensational.
That’s why when evaluating the Cy Young winner they look at more than wins.
(sidenote: Cy Young IS the all time leader in wins, so maybe they SHOULD weigh wins more. Jokes.)
Wins are looked it, as is ERA, CG, SO, IP, WHIP and all the other fun stats.
“Its a stupid stat that says more about the offense than the pitcher.”
That’s taking things to an extreme where the argument doesn’t hold up.
It depends on both the offense and the pitcher.
And in general the person with the ball in his hand on the mound has by far the most influence over whether or not a team is going to win.
Wins for a pitcher are contingent on the offense but also reflect the some aspects of a pitcher’s skill.
Over at the RLYB they had an interesting note.
CC’s FIP for this game was 3.50 due to the walks.
What seems like a more valid reflection for how dominant CC was today out on the mound?
An FIP of 3.50 or 1 additional win?
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/.....s_sweep_as
However, its a whole lot easier to pitch for a team going nowhere like the Mariners than it is to pitch, and expect to carry, a team like the Yankees.
____________________________________________________________
So when CC was pitching for the indians a couple of years back he wasnt the same pitcher he is now?
I think a good pitcher is someone that keeps his team in the game, gives them a chance to win. And that happens every time Felix Hernandez pitches. Look at his record when he pitches against us, he is a great pitcher. It doesnt take anything away from CC. But Hernandez won/loss record doesnt say anything about the way he pitches, because he DOES give the mariners a chance to win every time he pitches.
I think Kevin Long’s contract expires after this season. If so, he may be one of the most important free agent signing.
on a totally unrelated issue … I am currently watching the YES post game report … it is amazing how much YES blows SNY when it comes to production value … set designs, graphics, up-to-minute interviews, etc.
I cant imagine any regional sports network comes close to YES … but I have heard that NESN is very good.
Give me a pitcher that wins 20 games with an ERA of 3.50-4.00 over a 20 game loser with an ERA of 2.50 to 3.00 every time.
Winning % also matters IMO.
CC Sabathia is 14 games over .500 this year.
There are only 10 teams in all of MLB that are 14 games over .500 or better this year.
That’s very impressive.
Even moreso considering he is pitching in the toughest division in MLB.
Oakland’s pitcher ERAs prior to facing the Yankees this week:
Cahill – 2.43 (and the best pitcher in the AL since the ASB)
Mazzarro – 3.61
Anderson – 3.32
Braden – 3.28
I think the problem has become that a win can be “meaningless” i.e. giving up 8 runs and your team scores 9 like Howie Farr says or giving up 1 run and your team scores 0 and that has been extrapolated to say that the entire win-loss statistic is meaningless.
Many view this flaw as crippling the statistic, but at this point the way I think about it, I would really like win-losses to be studied further and to somehow find out really how many of these wins or losses are “meaningless.”
Hernandez has been roughed up a bit by the Rangers this year. It’s not all sunshine with him, despite the fact that he is freakin’ incredible.
MG, explain to me why Javy Vazquez and Felix Hernandez have the same record and please argue that both Jazy Vazquez and Felix Hernandez have pitched very similiar this season.
Thanks!
Of course, wins are good, but it’s a stat that almost precludes King Felix from any CYA conversation for reasons not of his own making.
Pettitte, Wells, Cone, Morris. All of them had mid 3 to low 4 ERAs. They had something else in common. They knew when to go for the throat to close out the wins.
Give me a pitcher that wins 20 games with an ERA of 3.50-4.00 over a 20 game loser with an ERA of 2.50 to 3.00 every time.
__________________________________________________
I rather sign a pitcher with an ERA of 2.50 to 3.00 anytime over a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50-4.00.
“I have bought into the wins are meaningless sabermetric mantra in the past, but I think it is pretty hard to make that argument just watching what this staff has done over the course of the season. ”
I can identify with this, but I just don’t see how someone can hold Felix’s W-L record against him. Three times this year he didn’t really give his team a chance to win (combined 13.2 IP, w/ 19ER). In his other 26 starts, he has allowed 3ER or less–pitching 189 innings and allowing only 35 runs, with an ERA of 1.67. I absolutely love CC, but if had a vote, it would take a lot to convince me not to vote for Felix.
CC should win the cy young. Felix has been great but you can’t ignore that CC will make the play offs and every one of his starts has pressure. Felix’s starts mean absolutely nothing. He faces lesser lineups, has half as many wins as CC’s does and it also helps that his home ballpark is gigantic. CC will obviously lose some points because he is on the Yankees but last place vs 1st place and playoffs has to put CC on top.
“Oakland’s pitcher ERAs prior to facing the Yankees this week:”
That tells you how much ERA can be influenced by pitching in a huge pitcher’s park and in an awful division that has a historically abysmal team in the mariners it it.
Other than Anderson, none of those guys have particularly good stuff. Braden and Cahill know how to pitch but their ERA’s don’t reflect how good they are or arent’.
and 3 of the 4 pitched on great yankee teams with awesome offense….i still dont get your point
No he wasn’t the same pitcher he is now.
In Cleveland, he was a fastball/slider pitcher.
No real CB and no changeup.
Now? He throws all four pitches and even added a cutter, which he is still developing, to his reportoire.
He also pitched better in big games and on the post-season in NY than he did in Cleveland and Milwaukee.
He’s one of the few guys who has gotten better and more dominant on the bigger stage.
CC is doing what he’s doing in the toughest division in baseball in the midst of a pennant race. Love King Felix, but that has to count for something.
One thing that has really started to bother me coming from the “sabermetric community” is that they constantly dismiss outliers, extremes, anomalies, whatever you want to call it.
Yet, whenever the win-loss discussion comes up, the first thing that is pointed to in the argument is someone like King Felix.
That he is 10-10 with how low his ERA is seems to me to be one of those “outliers”
“He also pitched better in big games and on the post-season in NY than he did in Cleveland and Milwaukee.”
He also had more rest down the stretch.
Howe Farr September 2nd, 2010 at 4:33 pm
MG, explain to me why Javy Vazquez and Felix Hernandez have the same record and please argue that both Jazy Vazquez and Felix Hernandez have pitched very similiar this season.
Thanks!
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who would ever say they have pitched the same? Hernandez is a great pitcher but he isn’t the best pitcher in the AL in 2010, CC Sabathia is because he’s 19-5 with an excellent ERA. Hernandez’ ERA is .65 runs per game less than CC but many things account for that including CC pitching in a tough ballpark and the AL East fulltime instead of in a pitcher friendly park in a pitcher friendly division (I’m sure CC would like to face the A’s 5 or 6 times a season, he’s probably win 25 every year).
Howe Farr September 2nd, 2010 at 4:36 pm
and 3 of the 4 pitched on great yankee teams with awesome offense….i still dont get your point
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That comes as no surprise that you don’t get it. They also won big for other teams.
Actually, Mo should win the Cy Young hands down, his ERA is about 1, isn’t it?
LGY
Every general rule has exceptions. /law school tedium
Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the AL this season. He’s perhaps been the best pitcher in baseball this season.
I love CC. I just posted above how he is the foundation of this yankees team.
I’ve watched a number of Felix’s starts this season. As good as CC is, Felix has been better. Hernandez has been amazing all season long.
Now whether or not the best pitcher will win the Cy Young is a separate issue.
“Mo should win the Cy Young hands down”
He’s so good he could almost do that.
How about with one hand tied behind his back.
He pitched a ton of innings, and high pressure one’s at that, for the Yankees last year.
While he didn’t work on short rest like he did in Milwaukee, the stage is much bigger and the AL is much more competitive than the NL.
Felix only has 10 wins and has 5 more starts to go. Figure he only wins 2 or 3 more starts I find it hard to believe he can win the cy young with 13 or less wins. The Mariners lineup is obviously dreadful but you need help from your teammates and that should count against him.
I think the only time win total isn’t the be-all end-all in CY voting is when none of the pitchers has achieved 20 wins.
The ability to win definitely should not be overrated. Look no further to the US Open in tennis to see the disparity between athletes that know how to win versus those who don’t. Look at Federer or Nadal, or Serena or Venus – players that can win even when they’re not their best or even being outplayed. Winning isn’t just luck, it’s an ability some people have and some people don’t.
It’s a different sport, but winning takes mental strength.
“He pitched a ton of innings, and high pressure one’s at that, for the Yankees last year.”
But Girardi did a very good job of getting him an extra day of rest in between his Sept. starts.
There is one thing I have wondered about for a while and whether if teams like the Yankees with such potent offenses should take under consideration more. Maybe then even do. I don’t know.
You always need that Ace like CC, but when filling out the rest of the rotation, looking for a pitcher who has generally been very consistent.
The tantalizing thing about AJ Burnett is that he can be so dominant. But, on a team like the Yankees, do they “need” someone who can be dominant any night out. Or would they be better off with someone who just has a decent ERA and keeps the game close most nights out?
Lets say you could sign a pitcher who would guarantee you 6 innings of 3 run ball every single start. That would translate to a fairly pedestrian 4.50 ERA, but how much more value would the consistency have over the ERA?
Look at how wrong you all are. Livan Hernandez won 13 games with a 6 ERA. You give a pitcher enough run support he is going to win games.
Whether or not a tennis player wins are a result of factors that are all within his/her control. That’s not true in baseball.
I meant to say “underrated” in my previous post.
At the end of the 8th, I was all ready to celebrate CC’s first shutout of the year. Low pitch count, few base-runners allowed. Seems like the perfect to day let CC finish what he started. Why did Girardi pull him?
__
No need to throw more than 90 pitches. save the arm any chance you can. He may have to pitch on short rest in the playoffs.
Add my name to the list of people worried about Jeter. Sure, you expect a little drop-off as he ages, but add to that a slump that he doesn’t seem to get himself out of. When was the last time Jeter wasn’t able to pull himself out of a slump? Does he have an injury that he is hiding? Or is he just not able to keep up at this point?
Note- his BA is now exceeded by every starter on the Yankees, except Granderson and Posada (who is 1 point behind). His OPS is exceeded by every starter. (Not including any of the platoon of players filling the 9th starter spot at this point.)
Lets say you could sign a pitcher who would guarantee you 6 innings of 3 run ball every single start. That would translate to a fairly pedestrian 4.50 ERA, but how much more value would the consistency have over the ERA?
–
That would be awesome, but 4.50 ERA’s aren’t built like that. Generally a pitcher with a 4.5 ERA is going to be pretty decent some nights, and then be 4 ER+ a lot of others.
I defy anyone to find a pitcher that can consistently go 6 with 3 ER or so. I think their ERA would be lower than 4.5. (and yes I would sign that guy in a heartbeat)
LGY-
Didn’t you just describe a healthy Vasquez ?
Felix only has 10 wins and has 5 more starts to go. Figure he only wins 2 or 3 more starts I find it hard to believe he can win the cy young with 13 or less wins. The Mariners lineup is obviously dreadful but you need help from your teammates and that should count against him.
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and that’s sad, because he’s definitely been the better pitcher this year.
# Jerkface September 2nd, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Look at how wrong you all are. Livan Hernandez won 13 games with a 6 ERA. You give a pitcher enough run support he is going to win games.
What was his numbers in the games he won?
If King Felix wins the Cy Young award this year,then the award is meaningless. The Mariners were supposed to have a pretty good year. They didn’t and Felix doesn’t have the numbers. CC won the CYA when he pitched for a bad team.
No question Felix has pitched great this year.
However, its more than just raw numbers.
You have to look at the entire situation.
Felix pitches with zero pressure on him this year. Especially from June on when it was clear the Mariners weren’t going to be competitive.
He can go out there, let it fly, and not have any concerns.
CC has a pitching staff on his back to carry, is pitching in the best division in baseball, in a non-pitchers park, and has the pressure of trying to pitch his team to another title.
Its a completely different set of circumstances by which the two guys perform.
Under that overall view, IMO, CC has the edge because of what he’s done this year to date.
I really think the NESPN writers who vote on Cy Young will not vote for CC and throw their votes at Laptops.
With CC and Laptops splitting a lot of the north east votes, King Felix should have it in the bag.
You can say its stupid to throw out an situation like “a pitcher who gives up 8 every time but his team scores 9″ because there isn’t really going to be an offense out there that can consistently score 9.
But on the flip side I can point out 5-10 offenses that would have trouble scoring runs even for their best pitcher.
Which is why wins are overrated for pitchers. So CC “guts it out” giving up more earned runs than Felix, but because of the yankees superior offense gets the win, so it looks like CC is pitching to the score and grinding it out.
Meanwhile, Felix Hernandez has to go out there and throw a shut out or he is pretty much boned.
Right.
Arguments like: Division strength and ballpark? Those are cool and make sense. But not wins!
AJ was signed because the Yankees were intent on making the playoffs (and beyond) after their 2008 failure, and they wanted pitchers that miss bats. They also thought that perhaps AJ’s 2008 season indicated that he was about to become more consistent late in his career as he developed into a pitcher instead of a thrower.
Unfortunately, it was apparently a mirage, and the costs of AJ probably will outweigh the benefits for the duration of his contract.
Well, if a guys has 20 wins and a 6 ERA, that’s different. There’s a lot of different criteria. No one statistic reigns supreme. But most of the time, when a guy wins 20 games, he’s doing a lot right.
If King Felix wins the Cy Young award this year,then the award is meaningless.
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that is the dumbest thing i have read on this blog. congrats. holllly shit…
im gonna go back to the real world now… feel free to spout off about how wins are the most important thing when judging a pitcher.
If you go back and look at Livan’s year Jerkface, he was dominate in the games that he won.
Felix pitches with zero pressure on him this year.
–
I get this argument, and I would reckon at some point it plays a factor, but isn’t Felix pitching for his own pride? His own stats? His career?
Are you telling me your nephew is going to come up to the gutless pirates and slack off because there is no pressure? He can just go up and hack away? Don’t these teams want to play spoiler? Don’t they want to show everyone that they are a winner?
No team purposefully tanks a season (even though they should to get a better pick)
Jerkface,
I know you can’t find a guy like that.
I was just using an extreme example. My point was how much consistency should be valued and how much more emphasis a team like the Yankees should put on it when filling out their rotation as opposed to other teams who don’t score as much and “need” those dominant outings more often.
Well really, my question was. Not my point.
Rich in NJ September 2nd, 2010 at 4:56 pm
AJ was signed because the Yankees were intent on making the playoffs (and beyond) after their 2008 failure, and they wanted pitchers that miss bats. They also thought that perhaps AJ’s 2008 season indicated that he was about to become more consistent late in his career as he developed into a pitcher instead of a thrower.
Unfortunately, it was apparently a mirage, and the costs of AJ probably will outweigh the benefits for the duration of his contract.
————-
AJ won some big playoff games and a world series game. I doubt he’ll ever be consistent again – but if the guy does that for us in a few more postseasons, I think inconsistency is forgivable.
In 1987, there wasn’t a more dominant pitcher in the NL that year than Nolan Ryan. Led the league in ERA with a 2.79 and strikeouts with 270. He didn’t win the CY Young because of pitching for a lousy team. His record was 8-16. Steve Bedrosian won.
Well really, my question was. Not my point.
–
I think the yankees should value consistency overall. At a certain point you’re going to get diminishing returns. The yankees could have 20 mil per year Ace beasts in their rotation throwing up 2 ER every game, but if the yankee offense is scoring 5-6 runs per game is it really worth it?
Especially if the flipside is, at any moment one of those pitchers could blow up. I think a ‘safe’ guy who is going to be consistently average-above average could be very valuable.
“Look at how wrong you all are. Livan Hernandez won 13 games with a 6 ERA. You give a pitcher enough run support he is going to win games.”
In 10 of his wins he gave up 3 runs or less.
“He didn’t win the CY Young because of pitching for a lousy team. His record was 8-16. Steve Bedrosian won.”
And that was a very, very good example of the person winning the Cy Young not being the best pitcher in the league.
Bedrosian won the award but wasn’t even close to as good as Ryan was. Not even remotely as good.
“AJ won some big playoff games and a world series game. I doubt he’ll ever be consistent again – but if the guy does that for us in a few more postseasons, I think inconsistency is forgivable.”
That’s a huge if though, and some of his playoff/WS losses made other games even bigger for other starters (see Pettitte, Andy after AJ blew up in Game 5 of the WS).
I think the real question is was he a good signing given the 5 years. My opinion is that it wasn’t.
If you go back and look at Livan’s year Jerkface, he was dominate in the games that he won.
–
he made 31 starts. In 12 of those starts he gave up 3 R or less. He won most of those starts. So 38% of the time. 16% of the time he gave up 4R.
That means 46% of the time he gave up 5R or more. So half the time he started you had no chance to win. And of the other half, you were probably a toss up on the 3 and 4 R games.
Thats why wins are dumb.
“In 10 of his wins he gave up 3 runs or less.”
The next question is (and I don’t know the answer) what kind of offenses he faced in getting those 10 wins.
The next question is (and I don’t know the answer) what kind of offenses he faced in getting those 10 wins.
–
He once put 11 men on base in 6IP vs the Red Sox and only had 3 runs out of it. He struck out 1. And gave up a HR!
benshpigel Quotemeister Dallas Braden on leaning against the concrete between innings to stay cool: “I felt like a Labrador lying on the kitchen tile”
Hershiser finished ahead of Ryan with a 3.06 ERA and a 16-16 record. Unless you’re the hands down best and have at least a .600 winning percentage and there are no clear cut top numbers and aren’t a Mike Marshall/Fingers. Eckersley type closer, you aren’t winning.
I’m a StatsGeek some of the time.. and I admit that I like looking at HR and RBI stats, especially looking at the number of batters with a good quantity of HRs and RBIs. So, let’s look at the Yanks..
8 guys with 10 or more HRs
4 guys with 20 or more
.. 6 guys with 20 or more by end of the season?? (Posada and Grandy really coming on!)
1 guy with 30 or more
.. 3 or 4 guys with 30 or more by end of the season?? (Cano and Swisher likely, but ARod not so much)
3 guys with 90 or more RBIs
.. 3 or 4 guys with 100 or more by end of the season?? (can Swisher make it 4?)
6 with 50 or more
.. 7 or 8 guys with 50 or more by end of the season?? (can Gardner and Grandy make it 4?)
.. 5 or 6 guys with 60 or more by end of the season?? (can Jeter and Posada make 60?)
8 with 40 or more
.. 9 or 10 with 40 or more by end of the season?? (can Cervelli and Thames make it?)
“He once put 11 men on base in 6IP vs the Red Sox and only had 3 runs out of it. He struck out 1. And gave up a HR!”
I think Livan is a pedestrian starter at best, but if people won’t to overemphasize wins, let them demonstrate how those wins demonstrated anything more than randomness.
I just don’t believe the voters are sufficiently enlightened to give a .500 pitcher the Cy Young. King Felix, is awesome, but he is 10-10, and when it comes to the Cy Young wins do matter.
I could see Clay Buchholtz winning it due to the combination of dominant ERA, 15+ wins and excellent winning percentage. I could see CJ Wilson or David Price winning it as well for similar reasons, but their ERA’s are IMO not sufficiently better than CC’s to overcome the win margin CC will have. Lee may be out of the picture, we’ll have to wait and see.
In the end I think CC wins it, but I’m not ruling out Buchholtz yet.
won’t = want
“Thats why wins are dumb.”
The point you were trying to make was that Livan didn’t deserve to win 13 games. The truth however is that he earned his 13 wins.
Its a whole lot easier to play for yourself in meaningless games than it is playing in pennant race games.
When you are playing out the string and you have a bad night, you don’t even think about it 10 minutes after a game.
Have a bad night in a pennant race game or a post-season game? It lingers and you have to make sure it doesn’t cost your team.
The pressure Felix has pitched under this year is much less than what CC pitches under in NY.
IMO, that has tobe factored in.
Wave,
I am not positive about this, but I don’t think anyone has ever won the CY with as few innings as Buchholz. I think that is really going to hold him back from getting any sort of substantial votes.
“I think Livan is a pedestrian starter at best, but if people won’t to overemphasize wins, let them demonstrate how those wins demonstrated anything more than randomness.”
Wins may be a very poor statistic of limited validity and utility but they are not non-deterministic. They are not the product of random behavior.
The word random gets used in baseball so often it’s lost nearly all meaning.
The point you were trying to make was that Livan didn’t deserve to win 13 games. The truth however is that he earned his 13 wins.
–
yea you know what, I pulled a bad guy with bad stats but he did win the games that he pitched well in. But here is a point, why does Felix NOT deserve to win? It comes down to the offense behind him, its not anything on felix.
He has pitched 3 ER or less in 82% of his starts, and he has 3 less wins than Livan Hernandez . If you pitched Livan Hernandez vs Felix Hernandez 100 times, I think Felix might win 99.
This should be a NO brainer, unless the Anti-Yankee National media decides otherwise.
I haven’t checked in much lately, but has there been much talk about Jeter’s struggles at the plate, and why?
I am thinking that he has been hurt for several months. He started off great in terms of power, and his usual for average, so I don’t think he has lost it all of a sudden, or was destined to have a down year.
But he has looked very similar to the way he did in ’08-hasn’t driven a ball in what seems like months, and every other AB is a weak ground ball to a middle IF. The thinking then was that he possibly had a broken hand. Last year I don’t remember him being hit on the hands at all, this year I seem to remember him getting hit about the time he started falling off.
Any thoughts?
Jerkface,
I never said Felix didn’t deserve to win. In fact I have no argument about who wins or who doesn’t win. I’m individual awards neutral being that the best players don’t always win the awards.
LGY-
He was hurt for a month. If he finishes up the season strong he’ll have 175+ IP, say a 17-6 record and a dominant ERA. I’m not saying that wins, but I don’t think the voters will hold the IP against him.
Harper on SNY just said he would vote Buchholz slightly over CC right now because “his numbers are a little better now”.
Don’t know if he has a vote this year, but I think the writers (especially older ones) will be mesmerized by his low ERA/WHIP/BAA. They need to hold the inning disparity against him, though.
Mark in Tampa,
Go back through every thread the last two weeks. Jeter has been talked about at length.
“Wins may be a very poor statistic of limited validity and utility but they are not non-deterministic. They are not the product of random behavior.”
Actually, you’re right. Selection bias is a better term for what I was trying to describe.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Buchholz. Back when CC won the Cy Young over Beckett part of the reason why was due to how many more innings CC threw and how much more value that produced.
Both Felix and CC have thrown a huge number of innings this season.
Wow, you know things in Yankeeland are all milk and honey when even sporadic concerns about Jeter are being ignored and drowned out by the Cy Young debate.
In all honesty, Tex, Cano and Jeter should all win Gold Gloves this year. Do you really think that will happen?
CC and David Price will likely garner most of the first place votes for Cy Young, I could see a lot of voters voting for Felix for second place. He might be able to win if he gets a few first place votes, nearly all the seconds, and Price and CC split the first place votes. I just can’t see him getting a lot of first place votes with a .500 record and probably only 12 or 13 wins.
Plenty of relief pitchers have won the Cy Young with fewer innings than Buchholz. Sutcliffe won the NL with 150 innings in ’84 after spending the first 1/3rd of the year in the AL.
raymagnetic — I agree with you. These individual awards are really not that interesting and aren’t always that rational. Besides, there have been so many seasons when the Yankees have won without any players winning notable awards. 1996 – 2000 stands out.
“I am not positive about this, but I don?t think anyone has ever won the CY with as few innings as Buchholz.”
To put the difference between him and Felix into perspective…If Felix didn’t throw another pitch this year while Buchholz went out and threw 9 complete games, Felix would still have more innings.
GB,
Good point. I forgot about relief pitchers.
I amend my statement to I don’t think any starting pitcher has won with as few innings.
One thing I will say about the Cy Young. If CC wins 23 games he’s winning the Cy Young. He might not be the most deserving but I’ve seen worst.
raymagnetic,
Thanks.
If I had the time to read through 2 weeks of posts, I wouldn’t have asked the question.
When I said the Cy Young wouldn’t mean anything if Hernandez won the award, I never said it would be CC. There are a number of pitchers on contending teams that have a chance. The writers don’t like the Yankees so it is possible even if CC wins 22 games, they could overlook him, but Hernandez????
Buchholz’ remaining starts (if he stays on schedule) are
vs. White Sox
@ Tampa
@ Seattle
Baltimore
@ Yankees
vs. Yankees
If King Felix wins, then imo, the CYA would never have more meaning.
“Actually, you’re right. Selection bias is a better term for what I was trying to describe.”
That’s not selection bias either.
Wins are a poor construct to represent what the value produced by a pitcher is. It’s an aspect of validity. It’s also an issue of preference and value statements. It’s not selection bias.
We’re talking about Buchholz now?
“Phil Hughes”
I got nothing to say, just thought I’d get out in front of the inevitable.
Relief pitchers pitch few innings, but the innings have more leverage.
Mark in Tampa,
I wasn’t been a wise ass, but he’s been talked about so much that another 5 threads could be created just based on what people have said about him already.
Buchholz may be hurt by a number of things as a starter….low innings, low strikeouts, high walk totals and a lot of quality challengers.
CB-
My personal belief is that the voters decide in their gut who they think should win the Cy Young, then rationalize it afterwards. This year, CC has been the horse with the dominant win total on the best team, while Buchholtz has been the kid with the ERA that winks at you (and in Fenway, which the voters will credit) and a pretty darn good won-lost record too.
Jury is still out, I think.
Mark in Tampa-
Jeter has been extensively discussed here.
A very good article on his troubles at the plate was written by Frankie Piliere yesterday:
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/0.....iar-swing/
Jeter’s problems were talked about yesterday here quite a bit in light of this article.
Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the American League this year. The only reason his win total is low is because he has an historically bad offense supporting him.
Here’s a question:
With a full year of Swisher 2.0 as exhibit A, and a few weeks of Granderson 2.0 as exhibit B, what player would you want the Yankees to acquire on the cheap that you think Kevin Long could help the most?
“If I had the time to read through 2 weeks of posts, I wouldn’t have asked the question.”
——————————-
So you instead want someone else to summarize what has been said for the past 2 weeks?
Just getting home from work…………
CC is a remarkable pitcher; he is literally carrying this rotation on his shoulders. Every time he goes out there, there is pressure to win because the rest of the rotation is filled with question marks.
Great job by the Yanks taking care of business.
Hope Swish is ok – this must be a really deep bruise for it still to be affecting him.
Buchholz is not winning the Cy Young pitching for a third place team with two guys, Sabathia and Price, having seasons as good or better, in his own division.
That’s not counting King Felix, who will get a lot of consideration.
Will he get votes? Yes.
Will he win it? No.
“My personal belief is that the voters decide in their gut who they think should win the Cy Young, then rationalize it afterwards.”
I agree. That’s why the question of who will win is very different from who should win.
Who will win is about guessing what the voters will do and related to past precedent for the award.
Who should win is a highly contentious issue that is difficult to resolve.
But regarding who will win – given past precedents and voting patters I’d say CC is the front runner.
And given the way voting has gone in the past he would be a far cry from a poor choice even though Hernandez has been the best pitcher in the AL.
But as you said, it’s early.
Stuckey-
Won’t happen but I’d like to see what he could do with BJ Upton.
“I wasn’t been a wise ass, but he’s been talked about so much that another 5 threads could be created just based on what people have said about him already.”
Okay, no problem.
So, is the consensus that he is:
A) Hurt
B) Done
C) Having a bad year?
Mark,
You’re looking for a consensus here?
Good luck with that.
I doubt you could get a consensus on the definition of consensus
SJ44-
The discussion is who will win the Cy Young vote, not who the best pitcher is (at least I think, I was late to the party).
Clay Buchholtz is having a better year than David Price or CJ Wilson (who everyone is leaving out of their comments) on all factors the voters are going to care about other than IP.
Sabathia vs. Buchholtz? I rest with my earlier comments on that. If Buccholtz finishers with close to a 1 run lead in ERA over CC, the voters will find that hard to ignore. If CC finishes with 23 wins the same. Jury is still out.
wouldn’t mind seeing Jeter get two days off, this slump seems to be getting to him
CB,
Thank you.
“I doubt you could get a consensus on the definition of consensus”
I think you overrate what Cy Young voters look for Wave.
They aren’t Buchholz the Cy Young over CC.
Most Cy Young voters aren’t as caught up on ERA as you are.
Most of the voters look at wins, IP, and how their team fares with a few exceptions for dominant performances by guys on non-contenders in years where contending teams don’t have one dominant guy.
This year isn’t the case in that regard.
Stuckey,
Matt Kemp
SJ44-
I’m not caught up in ERA at all. I’m a stat geek, remember? I like things like FIP!
But I think the voters are more caught up in ERA differential than you give them credit for. The Cy Young used to be very heavily influenced by win totals, and sure it still is, but voters are moving away from wins in recent years.
I suspect you are letting your NY fandom (a laudable thing which I heartily approve) influence your prediction.
I suspect you are incorrect.
CC Sabathia is a better pitcher than Clay Buchholz.
His team is going to the playoffs. Clay’s is not.
Most years, with few exceptions, that plays a role.
CC is also going to pitch a lot more innings than Buchholz this year.
Which directly affects one’s ERA.
Since CC is the better pitcher on the better team, having a better year, it has nothing to do with fandom. It has to do with results.
That’s why CC will most likely win the award.
SJ44-
Well you may turn out to be right. But my point was to set out my opinion of the factors influencing the horse race, and who it would come down to and why. CC certainly could win it, I think it is either CC or Buchholtz assuming both finish the year strong as I said.
But we are both just predicting who will win the beauty contest, not who is the prettiest girl, so there isn’t really a “right” answer.
If I was starting a team today my pick would be Hernandez, if I had to win a big game this year I would take CC. If I wanted someone to mentor a young staff-CC is your man. CC is the CY winner this year, hands down.
Three cheers for Sabbathia. He is having a great year!! But, there is no doubt that he is being supported by lots of runs.
Great run support!!- 7.37 R/Gm. Some of the others in the running for Cy Young haven’t been quite as lucky. Felix Hernandez, for example, has had only 3.92 R/Gm support. Here are some of the stats for the top 10 pitchers in the AL by ERA, plus a few others:
PLAYER TEAM ERA RS W-L WHIP
Clay Buchholz BOS 2.21 7.24 15- 5 1.18
Felix Hernandez SEA 2.38 3.92 10-10 1.10
Trevor Cahill OAK 2.82 5.81 14- 6 1.05
C.J. Wilson TEX 2.88 6.61 14- 5 1.19
David Price TB 2.92 6.72 16- 6 1.24
CC Sabathia NYY 3.02 7.37 19- 5 1.20
Jered Weaver LAA 3.12 5.09 11-10 1.10
Gio Gonzalez OAK 3.23 6.09 12- 8 1.26
Dallas Braden OAK 3.23 4.44 9-10 1.10
Francisco Liriano MIN 3.27 6.97 12- 7 1.25
Jon Lester BOS 3.27 6.49 15- 8 1.19
Cliff Lee SEA/TEX 3.37 5.22 10- 8 1.03
Carl Pavano MIN 3.52 5.57 15-10 1.15
Pettitte and Hughes have had great run support. Burnett and Vazquez, kind of average.
PLAYER TEAM ERA RS W-L WHIP
Andy Pettitte NYY 2.88 8.48 11-2 1.20
Phil Hughes NYY 4.1 10.25 16-6 1.27
Javier Vazquez NYY 4.86 5.89 10-9 1.34
A.J. Burnett NYY 5.15 6.64 10-12 1.51
Moseley has had great run support. Mitre and Nova, very poor (but these suffer from small sample size).
Dustin Moseley NYY 4.86 9.72 4-2 1.42
Sergio Mitre NYY 3.47 2.12 0-2 1.07
Ivan Nova NYY 1.93 2.57 1-0 1.21
(Source: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/p.....expanded-2)
PS.. I understand it was hot, but I sure would like to have seen him get the CG!!