What’s the value of a 20-win season?
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Sep 07, 2010 
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Even the most hardened advocates of old-school stats admit the obvious flaws associated with wins. In the course of a career, having a lot of wins is a pretty good indication that a pitcher was pretty good, but a single win in a single game quite often means nothing. Even a bad pitcher on a bad day can get a win.
Thing is, pitchers like them. Especially starting pitchers.
Tonight CC Sabathia will try to win 20 in a season for the first time in his career. He won 17 in his first big league season, he’s won 19 twice — three times if you count this season — but Sabathia has never gotten to 20. The first time I remember it being brought up was after Sabathia won his 15th. It was August 12 in Kansas City, and it was the first time Sabathia had won 15 of his first 25 starts in a season.
“I try to stay away from personal goals to be honest,” he said. “I’d rather win a World Series than win 20 games and win a Cy Young.”
I have absolutely no doubt that’s true, but winning 20 games is a pretty solid accomplishment. Look at the list of Major League wins leaders. It’s not a perfect list of the top pitchers in baseball, but it’s not a bad place to start. One win might mean next to nothing, but 20 wins carries weight. It’s hard to get there on luck and timing.
Starting pitchers always talk about giving their teams a chance to win, and few pitchers do that as well as Sabathia. Reaching 20 wins might not tell you everything you need to know about his season, but it tells you he’s given his team a chance time and time again. Even Sabathia would have to admit that’s worth something.
Wins, combined with IP, do matter IMO.
In today’s baseball, you can’t put a premium on the innings CC logs for this team. Nor to the quality of the innings, which leads to the wins.
He is underpaid for what he does for this team and HOW he does. Which, in many ways is more important.
The term “great”, is often overused in sports.
Not however, when describing CC.
He is a great player.
I was leery of the Yankees going after CC Sabathia at first. So glad to be so wrong.
“I try to stay away from personal goals to be honest,” he said. “I’d rather win a World Series than win 20 games and win a Cy Young.”
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Very great to hear Sabathia
Someone like Burnett will quote you how many starts he gave up such and such amount of runs or less
CC on the other hand takes the ball and is interested in winning that game that day, nothing more.
It is why you can have an appreciation for guys like Pettitte and CC, these guys take the ball and grinds it out for the team even when not at their best, even though they have completely different stuff.
Burnett and Vazquez on the other hand are the antithesis of that grinding mentality.
Thankfully Vazquez is free to disappear after this season, Burnett we are stuck with however.
The only thing we can do is minimize his influence so much by having him as an overpaid back of the rotation pitcher.
When CC is on the mound, you expect a win, just like when Mo comes into the game.
Win or lose, CC never gets too high or too low, he just goes out there and does his job.
If he gets 20 wins or more, I don’t know how anyone beats him for Cy Young
CC is not only a great player but a standout teammate and wonderful individual.
SJ,
Very true…which is why its so hard to quantify how much a Sabathia or Halladay means to a staff. Not only are they good pitchers…but they consistently give their teams a chance to win and length in the games they pitch. That combination is one that is a huge security blanket for a rotation. Its why if they can get a healthy Cliff Lee next season then it will take tremendous pressure off 3-5 in the rotation and give it a much greater margin for error.
Of course, I wrote a long note at the end of the last blog with my concerns. I would appreciate your looking at it. I haven’t the remotest idea how to repost.
what are people’s opinions regarding Kerry Wood? I have heard Joba, D-rob, other bullpen guys speak very highly of him. Any chance of him sticking w/ the team next year?
I doubt Kerry Wood sticks because if he continues to pitch well, somebody is going to offer him a closer role at a much higher salary than Cashman would want to spend on a setup guy.
“# upstate kate September 7th, 2010 at 9:24 am
what are people’s opinions regarding Kerry Wood? I have heard Joba, D-rob, other bullpen guys speak very highly of him. Any chance of him sticking w/ the team next year?”
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Odds are pretty good he would get a better offer from other teams to close and would more than likely take that
Repost
“SAS September 7th, 2010 at 9:09 am
Good morning everyone,
Last night’s conversation here made me very uncomfortable. Do we have a good enough pitching staff to make in through the playoffs? (I am now assuming we get there).
Other than CC, it seems that we don’t have a competent pitching staff. Somehow or another we have gotten to September 7 in first place with a little room to spare without pitchers other than CC that we can count on. AJ certainly is a disappointment, Hughes has had problems, Vazquez is no longer in the rotation, Pettitte is coming off the DL. This is a concern to me.
Our hitters either have 3 or 4 hits or none. The play in the field has been good as has the bullpen.
That is exactly the way it sounded to me thus causing concern. I don’t believe all of this, but if it is true, we are in big trouble.”
There ya go, Sassy
In regard to Gardner, he’s been everything and even more than I hoped for. I think he can potentially be the next leadoff hitter for the Yankees.
CC is the best pitcher in baseball. CC is the MVP of the Yankees. He is a great player…
“# Chuck58 September 7th, 2010 at 9:26 am
Repost
“SAS September 7th, 2010 at 9:09 am
Good morning everyone,
Last night’s conversation here made me very uncomfortable. Do we have a good enough pitching staff to make in through the playoffs? (I am now assuming we get there).
Other than CC, it seems that we don’t have a competent pitching staff. Somehow or another we have gotten to September 7 in first place with a little room to spare without pitchers other than CC that we can count on. AJ certainly is a disappointment, Hughes has had problems, Vazquez is no longer in the rotation, Pettitte is coming off the DL. This is a concern to me.
Our hitters either have 3 or 4 hits or none. The play in the field has been good as has the bullpen.
That is exactly the way it sounded to me thus causing concern. I don’t believe all of this, but if it is true, we are in big trouble.”
++++++++++++++++++
The biggest disappointment in this whole entire equation has been the 2010 season of A.J. Burnett
His numbers are atrocious for his role on this team, alleged #2 starter
164.1 IP, 179 H, 94 ER, 69 BB, 126 K, 1.51 WHIP, .285 BAA, 5.15 ERA
Simply disgusting numbers
Vazquez shouldn’t surprise us one bit
Phil is in his 1st full season as a starter and has done more than expected, it is about future development with him
Burnett is the main culprit on the pitching staff this season with his putrid peripherals.
In the alphabet soup that baseball has become to some, the keep it simple stupid approach is sometimes nice.
I like wins. The team with the most gets to the postseason. What’s not to like about that? I like RBI too. They help with wins.
My dad and father-in-law were over yesterday and I sat and watched an inning or 2 with them. They both are very knowledgable about baseball but wouldn’t know an OPS from a UZR.
It made me realize how much Fantasy stats have changed how many people watch a game and rate players. Information is good but sometimes ignorance is just more fun.
Thanks Chuck,
I have to go to the City now, but I am going to check for answers when I return. After I see my grandson, I am sure all will be better than I see it right this minute.
Morning all.
I agree with the title of this thread so much that I have prepared a special 20th win tribute for CC.
All that remains is for CC to get there, and I hope that is today so I can give him his due, and honor his accomplishment.
Ha! Ha! Chuck 58, I just went back and copied SAS’ post from the last thread – good thing I checked before pasting!
Maine Yankee -
I did finally get a look at All Creatures Great and Small that you posted the other night. I think I might have liked that better than Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom.
“Conversely, AJ seems to get a free pass by too many.
Last year, it was Posada’s fault for his foibles. This year, Dave Eiland is the DFG (Designated Fall Guy) for Burnett’s terrible season.
Here is the way I look at it ……
AJ Burnett was signed to be the #2 guy in this rotation. He was awarded lifetime financial security for that role.”
SJ,
How is AJ getting a free pass? He sucks and he’s hurting the Yankees big-time which is why they have to go out and spend another 100+M next year for Lee. The way he’s going, the last pitch by AJ in a Yankee uniform can’t come soon enough for me.
Unlike you, I’m just a simple fan so my opinion about Eiland or AJ means ziltch to nobody except me. However, that doesn’t mean we should’nt be talking about the quality of the job Eiland is doing as pitching coach. We already know that AJ is a head case, he can’t maintain his mechanics and just about everybody agrees to that opinion so what’s your problem?
“Odds are pretty good he would get a better offer from other teams to close and would more than likely take that.”
True, unless they think he could be a transition/interim/part time closer as Mo is phased out. Mo is used more sparingly these days, as it should be. Having an 8th inning go-to guy who also closes when they want to rest Mo is decadent. But it is the Yankees we are talking about.
The way Rivera is pitching, he’s not being phased out by Kerry Wood or anybody else on the Yankee staff.
pat -
That is certainly true – sometimes stats can get in the way of just enjoying a baseball game or a player, for that matter.
Anyone -
Kerry Wood. I do really like what he’s been able to do since he came here. And as was stated above, other bullpen members really seem to appreciate him. I understand that if he does well here he certainly will be getting (or should be getting) some nice offers to close elsewhere and he’d be crazy not to take one.
But what if, what if Mariano begins to be used a little less, and Kerry is a sort of co-closer? Could he be enticed in that way? I don’t pretend to know how it would work, or even if it’s a situation that would arise. But logic tells me that in spite of Mariano appearing to be superhuman, he is not and it couldn’t hurt the Yankees to have someone like Wood. Or do they already have that in Robertson or Joba? Don’t know.
murphydog -
I see you are thinking along the same lines as I am.
Let’s see Kerry Wood get key outs in playoffs first.
Crawdaddy -
the Yankees have been so fortunate to have Rivera this good for this long. It CAN’T last forever. Can it? I think at this point each year of Mo is a gift, and logically, a team needs to prepare for a different way of doing things, even if it’s baby steps.
A right of first refusal approach might be the way for Cashman to go with Woods.
If he wants to be a closer, he won’t be back unless Mo retires.
But if he wants to investigate his options and he’s enjoyed his time in the Bronx, maybe Cash can convince his agent to allow the Yankees a chance to match or better an offer before it becomes a contract elsewhere.
Like I said, let’s see Kerry get some key outs for the Yanks in the playoffs before we think he can ease Mo out.
You guys really think Cashman is going to spend 8-10M a year on Kerry Wood?
You’re welcome, SAS
Doreen – “Good eye, good eye!” hahaha
“You guys really think Cashman is going to spend 8-10M a year on Kerry Wood?”
Probably not. But then again what contending team is betting on him as their closer with his injury history? And let’s not forget that Eiland seems to have unlocked something for Wood. Hey, it’s a thought.
SAS-
If you’re still here. Please check your e-mail. I sent you a special present.
Have a good day with your son.
“And let’s not forget that Eiland seems to have unlocked something for Wood. Hey, it’s a thought.”
Can we see a larger sample size first?
“You guys really think Cashman is going to spend 8-10M a year on Kerry Wood?”
No. With all the talk about teams cutting payrolls next year, Kerry may not get an 8-10M offer.
For many teams 8-10M may be 10-20% of their total payroll.
“Like I said, let’s see Kerry get some key outs for the Yanks in the playoffs before we think he can ease Mo out.”
Fair comment, but I’m not really saying Wood will ease Mo out. Mo is naturally being eased out, they are using him less to protect him. Wood cant replace the guy but maybe prolong/preserve his service and hold the spot until the next closer is annointed.
“No. With all the talk about teams cutting payrolls next year, Kerry may not get an 8-10M offer.”
If he’s pitching as good as you think then he’ll get his money from some dumb owner.
Whether Wood is back or not will probably largely depend on what he wants to do. If he stays healthy and continues to pitch well then some team will offer him a closer role. He could take it or decide to stay with the Yankees (for probably less money) and have a chance at WS titles….couldn’t fault him either way but still a ways to go before that decision is made.
The only way Kerry Wood is a Yankee next season is if Mo retires.
If Andy doesn’t get hurt and AJ doesn’t stink so bad, the Yankees would have the east wrapped up by now.
Getting Andy back healthy and AJ getting on a roll are keys to October.
I don?t understand why some people are so hostile to the ?new stats.? They tend to dismiss those that appreciate it as ?stat geeks? ?living in their mother?s basement? ?just interested in books and not the game.? Can?t these new stats help people in their understanding of the sport they all love? Nobody should question a fan?s appreciation for the game based on what stats they like or not, and to dismiss these new stats are something geeky is both counterproductive and conceited .
In this day and age, with all the stats we have at our fingertips, these stats should be appreciated and used by every fan, if at the very least, it helps them understand baseball a little more.
And that is not a bad thing.
Kerry Wood closer talk?
I’m not playing in this sandbox.
pat -
I like that right of first refusal approach.
murphydog -
Again, that’s what I’m thinking.
Hey, good for Kerry Wood, though. Sounds like he might have some decent options this off-season.
thanks everyone for the thoughts on Woods
I wondered if sometimes a player would take a lesser role to play for a better team, especially if the pay was close
Kate,
That’s the problem, the pay is not going to be close for Wood.
Bronx Jeers:
“Kerry Wood closer talk?
I’m not playing in this sandbox.”
It’s the day after Labor Day, we’re all hung over. OK, some of us are hung over. OK, I’m hung over. And I don’t have court this morning. Hence, the loose talk about Mr. Wood
My rant for the day- Bleacher Report should not be classified as news.
I have a news alert set for the keyword “Yankee” and people from Boston to Bakersfield writing about the Yankees on Bleacher Report is not a news source.
Kate-
Where did you hike ?
If one wants Kerry Wood over Mariano Rivera one is not hungover. One is still drunk.
“The poor little San Diego Padres. They had lost 10 consecutive games. Had lost any semblance of confidence. Lost all but one game of their division lead. They were one spooked team. So rattled, if you looked hard, you half expected to see their knees shaking. Into this valley of fear, stepped the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team so completely mixed up it’s capable of curing what ails any opponent.”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgers/
“If one wants Kerry Wood over Mariano Rivera one is not hungover. One is still drunk.”
LOL. but that’s not what I’m saying.
Anybody got any alka seltzer?
Howe Farr
I think they have their place but they should only be used as a piece to the puzzle.
A computer can tell you what pitch a pitcher has the greatest odds of success with but it can’t read how a batter swung at the last pitch thrown today.
There is something to be said with using baseball insticts rather than going by the book all the time.
Jeers
I don’t think anyone wants Kerry over Mo…my original question was did anyone think he would be w/ the team next year.
Do you have your magic #s picked out for today?
MTU
we hiked Catamount Mtn, which is in the Adks, but not one of the High Peaks. It has some beautiful views of the High Peaks and Lake Champlain. Its only 4 miles, but w/ some steep sections which included a lot of rock scrambling, including a chimney section, so a bit more technical then is my preference. Our dog had to be passed up and down in some sections much to her dismay, she is a good hiker and probably did closer to 10 miles
Hopefully the Yankees have some advance scouts in the stands for the Tampa Bay / Boston series.
Of the remaining 24 games, the Yankees play those two teams 13 times.
How sad is it that CC is approaching 20 wins while AJ is closing in on 20 losses.
Laura if you really bleed blue, you would know that AJ only has five more starts this season while being seven losses away from 20.
You do have to pitch pretty bad to have a 10-13 record on a team on pace to win 100+ games.
Wood has made over $ 50 Million in his career and has been on losing teams the whole time until now (ok, the Cubs were decent a couple of times). Who knows what his priorities are?
No one wants Wood instead of Mariano, but someday, someone will replace the greatest ever and you never know when that might be.
Sabathia and Halliday are the top two horses in MLB. No one can top their consistency, impact on a rotation and durability. There are other great pitchers out there, and some are more talented, perhaps. But no one in the game is better, no one.
“You do have to pitch pretty bad to have a 10-13 record on a team on pace to win 100+ games.”
Actually, you have to suck big-time which he does.
Kate-
Sounds nice.
Must have been interesting getting your dog up thru that chimney.
I won’t even bother asking you for pics.
“Laura if you really bleed blue, you would know that AJ only has five more starts this season while being seven losses away from 20.”
Crawdaddy, I was exaggerating. Calm down.
86,
Yup, Felix Hernandez has shown early signs of being that type of pitcher as he’s logged a ton of innings this year but hasn’t done it nearly as long as the big man and Halladay have. That ability to go deep and also stay healthy is something few pitchers can manage over the course of time.
Crawdaddy,
Lol…I was just trying to be a little more gentle in my wording.
MTU
it was an overcast day, so no one even brought a camera. We missed out on the cairn terrier next to a rock cairn photo op. I still have your instructions, so I might surprise you and actually post some pix!
In this day and age of stats, many of which are absurd IMO, I would like to suggest one that tracks the movement of a catchers mitt after the pitch is thrown. (not sure if I am serious or not so feel free to ridicule me)
Given that most hitters are pitched to according to that team’s book on them, one could assume that where the catcher sets up is the desired place for the pitcher to throw the ball. Hence the importance of command. When you watch Mo as an example, it’s uncanny how many times he hits the mitt. One could have made the same observation about Greg Maddux, I remember thinking that on numerous occasions. Of course these two are the gold standard.
Kate-
I was just giving you a hard time.
Planning a big trip for this upcoming weekend to see some more less travelled Indian ruins.
Catch you later.
upstate kate,
I do have some photos selected although I have to admit that my numbers could be a bit off the mark.
My magic numbers were always for the Yanks securing a post-season berth by way of eliminating the Red Sox who I always assumed would be the biggest contender for the wild card spot.
But now the Red Sox are not even in 2nd place for the wild card after getting themselves swept by the White Sox.
I mean nothing important has changed. The Yanks and the Rays will be in the playoffs. And the White Sox actually have a better chance of winning their division than of getting the wild card.
But my magic numbers are just not as magical as I originally hoped for.
West Coast Fan – Our local newspaperran an interview with various catchers on the Yanks, a while back, about the different pitcher they caught. Chad Moeller said that Mariano was the easiest, by far, because he always put the ball in the mitt. Moeller said that he could catch Mariano with his eyes closed.
This far out magic numbers are almost always contextual… ie: the magic number to finish ahead of this team or that team. The Yanks have similar magic numbers against Boston and Chicago, but would reach one much sooner than the other depending on how those teams play.
Joe — I could (and would) HIT against Mariano with my eyes closed.
Joe, thanks for that. It’s the most amazing thing about Mo to me, among many. I think he has some Phil Jackson in him, there’s a Zen-like quality to his demeanor on the mound where his focus and concentration is unparalleled. Yet he seems to be detached in a way. I have to think that detachment may contribute in large part to his mechanics, the ability to duplicate his motion and release point over and over again and to have the command he does.
Mo is a cyborg…its the only explanation.
blake September 7th, 2010 at 10:45 am
You do have to pitch pretty bad to have a 10-13 record on a team on pace to win 100+ games.
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It’s not as uncommon as you think. In ’78, Gossage was 10-11 and Jim Beattie was 6-9 in 22 starts. Wang was 1-6 last year. Bill Stafford was 4-8 in 1963. Those are just some of the more recent Yankee teams. I can find other teams that had pitchers with losing records on 100 win teams.
There is something to be said for starters that can amass wins regardless of their run support. I think it speaks to the killer instinct of guys like CC and Andy that when given a lead they get 10x more stingy in order to make it stick. Contrast that with Vazquez and Burnett who seem to pitch no differently with a lead. There’s a killer instinct in sports and I’d rather have players with that on my team than superior stats.