Phil Hughes starting tonight
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Sep 26, 2010 
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(repost)
“With the help of Eric Seidman, I pulled late-season records for every playoff team of the Wild Card era from 1995 through 2008, 112 teams in all. For each team, we recorded their record over the final seven, 14, and 21 games, as well for September and whatever fragment of October remained. The results of Game 163 play-ins initially weren’t included in either the “week” records (which didn’t always coincide to weeks, but which were somewhat easier to gather) or the “month” records; including them didn’t change the results substantially. Here are the correlations between the interval’s winning percentage and first-round success:
Interval Corr162 Corr163
Final 7 .019 .016
Final 14 -.020 -.021
Final 21 -.042 -.043
Final Month -.028 -.028
That, folks, is a whole lot of nothing, an essentially random relationship between recent performance and first-round success. None of the correlations even reached .05 in either direction, and six of the eight were actually negative.”
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=9617
OK, I’ll bite. Panic?
Great decision. Not panic. Just a smart baseball decision.
Betsy – in good fun – I told ya so! The only right thing to do was to start Phil tonight!
I still cant believe how awful Kearns’ baseball instincts are. He is just an awful awful baseball player. That said, if Kearns gets in the lineup, let’s go Kearnsie!
Does it matter the reason? He’s starting Hughes.
how soon before stalker betsy chick posts her typical crap about hughes.
Good. Girardi undid a bad decision.
Could it be he’s feeling the pressure now?
I guess this means that Moseley or crap his pants Vazquez starts on Tuesday?
Monday-AJ
Tuesday-?
Wednesday-Andy
Friday-CC
Saturday-AJ
Sunday-Nova?
“Does it matter the reason?”
I think so. Girardi prefers to have us believe there is rational planning and a deep understanding of basic baseball management acumen in his decisions. What this is showing is his fundamental approach was wrong.
He was very lucky last year. This year is a real penant battle and he is floundering.
Cashman on switching to Hughes: “We’re adjusting not panicking. It’s about making best decision with info in front of u, and this is best.”
Girardi was lucky last year? Lucky that he has a great team? What is this luck based on?
Could it be he’s feeling the pressure now?
————
He has been feeling the pressure the last 3 weeks. Did you miss that? lol
I don’t even understand why people worry so much about the Yankees. Obviously the team has been THE TEAM for a reason, why do you think that is? It’s amazing how some fans think that their opinions are somehow more thought out than the ones of the people that get paid millions of dollars by the Yankees to set a plan. As fans, it’s OUR team so shouldn’t we have just a little bit of faith in the Yankees brain-trust and give them the benefit of the doubt that they actually know what they are doing? If we are down 0-2 in the first round then start pointing fingers but not now.
Brian. Interesting isn’t it that so many fans knew what the right thing to do was long before you did. You see, if you make the right decision the first time, adjustments are not needed. Case in point Girardi figuring out this week that he better put the A lineup on the field.
Win tonight and it’s one step away from checkmate for the also-ran. Thank you, Joe.
I’ll start having faith in Girardi again when he stops using Chad Gaudin in winnable games.
Moseley woke this morning to find that his “clavichord” flared up again.
A win tonight would be just what the doctor ordered. And Hughes gives them a better chance because as bad as Matsuzaka is, Moseley is worse.
“What is this luck based on?”
Being gifted one of the best pitchers in baseball (and a left handed one at that)
A career year from his SS
An MLB record performance from his 2B and SS.
Phenominal clutch performances from Matsui and Damon (Do we miss those timely hits)
AP healthy all year
Alex learning the meaning of ‘clutch’
and on, and on, and on…..
Pushing Hughes back and everything having to do with Hughes this year has been an organizational decision NOT a Girardi decision. I would think that putting him back to starting tonight has been the same organizational decision.
If it means anything the Mariners are beating Tampa 6-2 in the 7th inning.
Let’s be rational here:
(1) We Yankees aren’t going to the playoffs;
(2) Even if by some infinitesimal chance we are lucky enough to make it to the playoffs, we will be swept in the first round.
Therefore, in the great scheme of things, this decision to start Hughes instead of Mosley is of no significance whatsoever.
So… Girardi is lucky because his team played well?
What a vapid remark.
Cano desperately needs time off. So does CC. Tex could use time. Thing is, if Girardi hadn’t fooled around all year they’d have had the WC locked up and could give these guys the rest they need. Girardi is a problem as SJ$$ has been saying. I hope he’s somewhere else next year.
In the first two rounds of the playoffs last season Hideki Matsui hit .238 with a .671 OPS.
I hope Thames/Berkman don’t wait until the WS to show up to play.
Some “Yankees fans” here badmouth the Yankees more than most opposing-team fans. How does that make sense?
Let me guess Arod and Posada won’t play tonight because they need “rest”?
It’s a special, and most insidious, kind of hell being a Bills fan. Trust me on this one.
Up until game 4 of the WS on November 1st Johnny Damon hit .167 with a .481 OPS.
I hope Granderson doesn’t wait until November to show up.
Faiaz
It makes perfect sense. Yankees fans are like Democrats. They fight amongst each other and they insult the organization for which they cheer. They are – by definitions – piles of dirt!
Starting Hughes and will rest him for Game 3 against the Red Sox in fenway, which will put him on track for Game 3 of the ALDS.
I trust…
Ruby you should stick to making small innocuous comments.
When you start to actually list separate points, it just makes you look desperate.
I think Pierre Thomas of the the Saints just got his leg broken
What the Byfuglien?? Thomas just walked off the field on his own!
CR9 keep your political views to yourself please.
Cigar-
Yes. Yes it is. I hope they make the playoffs again in my lifetime.
Smart move they win today. They will only need 1 win more win or 1 boston loss. Win today and take a game against toronto. Then they can treat series at fenway like an exhibition and rest up for the playoffs.
Girardi finally hit the panic button. Better late than never.
Go Phil and GO YANKS!!!!
I’m waiting for the SS Betsy to come rolling in. I guess she has to compose herself after crying a million schoolgirl tears of sheer ecstasy. Get ready for the I told you sos. Then prepare for tonight when Phil does something wrong and she starts telling everyone why he’s no good.
GayleF September 26th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
Pushing Hughes back and everything having to do with Hughes this year has been an organizational decision NOT a Girardi decision. I would think that putting him back to starting tonight has been the same organizational decision.
——————-
Exactly these inning restrictions are set up by Cashman and his staff. Dont understand what people want Girardi to do about Hughes innings.
just proves girardi’s moves have been garbage.
rest guys after you clinch the playoffs moron.
gaudin use is a fireable offense alone…………………
btw giants dumbest team in the league. did not punt for the whole game, outgained the other team by 200 + yards sand lost.
special teams are horrible, eli terrible left hand interception, bradshaw fumble, and chop block in the end zone.
horrrible horrible loss. outcoached and outsmarted big tim……….
Wow…………….I don’t know if I’m happy or not. This doesn’t make any sense if they skipped him purely for innings purposes. Now, I didn’t like that move, but they presumably thought long and hard about it. This does smack of a panic move………..Plus, how did Phil prepare for his start? Did he have a bullpen session or was it pushed back because he was supposed to start Wednesdsay.Wow.
I couldn’t be happier with Phil Hughes this year. 17-8 with a 4.31 and less hits allowed than innings pitched for a 24 year old number 5 starter pitching in the AL East? How can anyone find fault with that? Sign me up every time.
Is the 3-game series between the TWO wildcard teams the answer to this fiasco?
Wow, I believe Betsy called this last night
Nice job Betsy!!
I like the move. A win tonight clinches no worse than a tie for a playoff spot. It’s a 2 game turnaround.
http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/.....LbRgFVgNeJ
I don’t think it’s panic,” GM Brian Cashman said. “It is adjusting to circumstances. We haven’t had starters going deep into games. People can judge this and call it panic. I don’t care. I only care about making the right decision on the information in front of us. And the information is different on Sept. 26 than it was when we decided (to push back Hughes). I only care about being right, and this was right.”
***********
Wait, Brian, you just decided a couple of days ago to push Phil back – and that was about his innings limits. All along, Brian has said that Phil’s health/career is more important than this particular season, so if they are that concerned about his innings, then they should have stuck with that plan. Clearly they are concerned about his innings, but now they are showing they are more concerned with getting into the playoffs. Which is it?
Erica, I didn’t say they were going to start him tonight..
Way too much paralysis by analysis , Hughes is >>>>>>> Moseley is on his regular rest. You can call it panic or prioritize in light the relative significance of winning this game in comparison the none quantifiable benefit of resting him.
However the decision is reached , you can’t really argue that Hughes is a better option as a starter in this relative significant game.
good decision starting hughes.
as i said earlier today, how can you go with a guy who only pitched an inning in two weeks in a game this big ?
it was really a no brainer to reconsider and start hughes tonight.
It’s simple -
Cashman realizes how big a game this is and throwing out a 6th starter like Mosely compromises our chances severely. This game is a 2-game swing. Win tonight and the playoffs are basically ours… all we would need is one game in Toronto or 1 Boston loss against the ChiSox.
As far as what they will do now to skip him… shoot first, ask questions later. Though it would suck if they lost even after they made this move.
It may be a panic move, but if they want to maximize their chances of winning, Phil gives them a way better chance than Moseley. Given their predicament, it’s hard to see what else they could do as far as starting pitching goes. Too bad it had to come to this, but now is the time. It’s to be hoped the players take matters in their own hands and get the job done no matter what.
Cash can say it’s not panic, but it is. But it is the right move. They need this game tonight, or the chances of clinching before Fenway is dicey at best.
What changed in the last 2 days? They announced this on Friday.
Cash probably thought they could win Andy’s game. When that didn’t happen and Nova predictably lost to Lester, plans had to change.
Then he saw Burnett and Vazquez starting the first 2 Toronto games and decided they can no longer play around.
Whatever adjective you want to use for this move… it is the right one.
LGY
You have been putting up a good fight. Alas, I think for naught.
Betsy,
You are reading far too much into all this.
There are other ways to limit Hughes’ innings and get him rested for October. This was not the only way.
Matsuzaka’s ERA for September is 8.34. Moseley could have competed with that. Hughes starting tonight can’t be a panic move. Maybe it really is a decision based on his innings situation.
Tar,
As Pat M would say, pissing into the wind???
Where has Pat M been btw?
Tampa lost
Betsy September 26th, 2010 at 4:15 pm
Erica, I didn’t say they were going to start him tonight..
****************
Hahahaha… it was bruceb at 9:27
In my half asleep haze as I read it, my brain translated that to Betsy
I am so sorry!
I’m surprised BOS is not starting Buchholz tonight
If Boston loses tonight, they are done unless we lost every game remaining and they win every game remaining.
Tonight’s game is much more important than the White Sox games, as far as their remote playoff chances are concerned.
Good for us though. Things will look much better if we win tonight
LGY, if you’ve read my previous posts, you know I was dead set against skipping Phil. If they wanted to do that, they should have taken care of that weeks ago. My point is that they claimed that they were skipping Phil because of innings limits – and now what? Now those innings limits don’t matter? I’m sorry, but I agree with Sherman that this is a panic move…………..Did Phil have a bullpen session? Did he not? His preparation between starts undoubtedly changed. The original decision was bad; this is worse.
This was actually Cash and Girardi’s master plan.
They told Hughes to be ready for Sunday but relayed to the media he would be skipped.
Now they waited until this late to announce it so that it is too late for Boston to reverse course and start Buchholz over Dice-BB.
Genius.
Queue Betsy’s music!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS-NQ5UXCPc
Oh who’s to blame, that girl’s just insane.
Things change. Cashman probably didn’t think we’d lose these first 2 games.
LGY
Exactly. I am not sure where he is, but I do miss reading his posts.
Then if Cash realized this, why did they make the decision to skip Phil in the first place? That decision was made by Joe and Dave and Cash …………..so it was ok then, but not ok now? I hope it works out, but the fact is the Yankees look like they have no clue what they are doing.
Rays lose – let’s go Yanks!
Betsy,
Like I just said above, there are other ways to limit his innings before the postseason.
He has one more start scheduled after this.
Maybe Girardi tried to deke out Francona by naming Moseley, hoping Francona would go with Dice-K instead of Bucholz, because Francona would naturally think, like all of us, that the RS would have a favorable matchup.
Yanks78, then Cash should not be saying that Phil’s career/future come before anything – because that’s what he’s been saying over and over and over again.
Looks like LGy and I had the same thought at just about the same time.
“I hope it works out, but the fact is the Yankees look like they have no clue what they are doing.”
—————————
Cashman and Co. are adjusting to the present circumstances for the better of the team and they have no clue???
LGY, I’m not concerned about his innings; I’m concerned about the fact that the Yankees felt skipping him was the right thing to do (which it wasn’t) and now back tracked. That makes them look wishy-washy. I never thought they had to skip him period. I felt that he could make tonight’s start and then maybe go a few innings in Toronto………..so be it if he overdid his limit by 3 innings.
Lou,
GMTA
LGY, I already explained this but I guess you don’t agree. No, they don’t have a clue. They have repeatedly said over and over that Phil’s career and future are more important than what he can contribute at the present. Just a mere two days ago, they decided that the best thing for him would be to skip his start against Boston. Fine (well, it was stupid, but whatever). Now they’ve completely changed course and decided that it’s more important to pitch him tonight. You keep ignoring the fact that his preparation between starts has changed – that’s not a small deal.
Wow!
Been busy all day and this is the first time I’ve logged in since this morning.
I like this decision, regardless of the results.
They chose to pitch Moseley under quite different circumstances, and certainly their thinking was that they would certainly have won at least one of the first two games.
I don’t know what it says about the innings limit, except it kind of goes with what I was saying this morning – the precise number is a state secret, and all along they had to factor in different circumstances.
Anyway, good luck to Phil and the Yankees. As for me, I’m gonna be jumpin’ back into my car for the ride home from White Plains. Again. It’s been a bumpy ride, this moving the daughter out thing.
Betsy,
None of these things are set in stone. This is not a perfect science. Circumstances change and you adjust. You are taking this to the extreme when it is really not a big deal.
I would be more concerned if Cashman was too stubborn to reevaluate his decisions if things changed. That is what being a real leader is all about.
Erica, no problem!
I respect your opinions, LGY, but reasonable people can agree to disagree. This is a panic move, pure and simple.
There’s really no difference between Hughes starting today and Hughes starting Wed in terms of limiting his innings.
It’s his last start either way. He’ll get some tune-up innings in Fenway and that’ll be it.
The only way he’s starting next Sat afternoon is if it’s a doomsday scenario.
Betsy,
What is the downside of this decision?
LGY, I believe you have to have the courage of your convictions, but ok.
LGY, I already said what the downside is. It makes them look panicky. Phil hasn’t had his regular between start preparation. Now if they don’t win or he doesn’t pitch well, what happens? In his next start, they’ll push him beyond his IL?
Rays & Twins both lose, now it’s anyone game!
This is rich. No matter what they do, the Yankees have no idea what they’re doing. They should pitch Hughes but they shouldn’t pitch Hughes. They want to win but they don’t want to win. If Hughes pitches well it’s in spite of the Yankees. If Hughes pitches poorly it’s because of the Yankees. The Yankees have screwed up everything from the first day of the season and this is just one more screw up. If they win the world series it will have nothing to do with Girardi. If they lose it’s all Girardi’s fault. Does that just about cover it?
************************
Who cares that the Rays lost? There is still no way the Yankees can take the division even if they win tonight. That would put the Yankees 1/2 game out with 7 left to play. 1/2′s bigger than 7 right? It isn’t?
Oh, my bad.
But anyway we all know they don’t want to win the division, right blue crew, so they will clinch and then hold a secret clubhouse meeting where the Yanks agree to throw the rest of their games.
If by some bad fate they win the division it will be in spite of Girardi. If they lose it it will be because of Girardi. Does that just about cover it?
As long as it helps them win, does it really matter how it makes them look? Better to go all out to get the win tonight than waiting until next weekend in Boston. Because if it’s panic now, what kind scary mess would it be by then? And when have the Yankees ever been accused of making decisions based on anything other than their perceived best interests, with little regard for media/public perception? It should never have come to this, but thank goodness they aren’t too stubborn to change course when circumstances obviously warrant it. Can’t wait to see this game now.
trisha -
What has happened to you lately? OMG, this is not you.
trisha-
You were just being facetious right?