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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


The Cy Young and the MVP

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Sep 30, 2010 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

The Yankees have legitimate candidates for the top individual honors in the American League. Robinson Cano is among the MVP front runners and Cy Young is at the forefront of a heated debate about the Cy Young. Not surprisingly, Joe Girardi thinks his guys should win.

Girardi on Cano: “There might be guys who have better offensive numbers than him, but I don’t think they bring that same defense that he does. He’s excellent on both sides of the ball.”

Girardi on Sabathia: “I’m not taking anything away from the American League West, but those ballparks are going to play bigger… (For) what CC has done in this division, I think he’s the Cy Young.”

Could the Yankees actually win both?

ph_429664MVP
Top Yankees candidate: Robinson Cano (.314/.374/.524, 28 HR, 106 RBI)
Other favorites: Josh Hamilton (.361/.414/.635, 31 HR, 97 RBI), Miguel Cabrera (.328/.420/.622, 38 HR, 126 RBI)
Four more: Adrian Beltre (.323/.367/.556, 28 HR, 102 RBI), Paul Konerko (.310/.390/.581, 38 HR, 107 RBI), Alex Rodriguez (.272/.342/.514, 30 HR, 123 RBI), Carl Crawford (.309/.359/.492, 17 HR, 88 RBI)

Rodriguez has no reasonable shot at the MVP, but he might have put himself in the top 10 with that huge RBI total. He could have run away with the league lead if he hadn’t been hurt. One thing that surprises me is how similar Cano’s numbers are to Beltre’s. If you could only pick one Ray for the Top 10, would you go Crawford or Longoria? Would you consider Soriano ahead of them? Prediction: Hamilton wins it. Cano finishes second.

ph_282332Cy Young
Top Yankees candidate: CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18, 237.2 IP, 197 K, 74 BB)
Other favorites: Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27, 249.2 IP, 232 K, 70 BB), David Price (19-6, 2.73, 207.2 IP, 187 K, 79 BB), Jon Lester (19-8, 2.96, 204 IP, 220 K, 78 BB)
Four more: Jeff Weaver (13-12, 3.02, 217.1 IP, 229 K, 53 BB), Clay Buchholz (17-7, 2.33, 173.2 IP, 120 K, 67 BB), Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.29, 205.1 IP, 177 K, 18 BB), Trevor Cahill (17-8, 3.08, 189.2 IP, 112 K, 61 BB)

Like Rodriguez in the MVP voting, Cahill has no chance to win the Cy Young, but he has to be the least likely Top 10 candidate. That’s a terrific second year in the big leagues. This vote could come down to the way voters think. I tend to believe there are a lot of traditionalist out there who want to give the Cy Young to a guy who really carried a team and got them somewhere. That’s why… Prediction: Sabathia wins it, and I think Hernandez might finish outside of the Top 3 because some voters will have him much lower than expected.

Just for fun…

Rookie of the Year
Top Yankees Candidate: Is Austin Jackson still with the Yankees? No?
Favorites: Neftali Feliz (4-3, 2.81, 38 saves, 70 K, 17 BB), Austin Jackson (.298/.349/.407, 26 SB, 181 H, 102 R), Wade Davis (12-10, 4.14, 161 IP, 107 K, 60 BB)
Four more: Brennan Boesch (.260/.325/.424, 14 HR, 66 RBI), Brian Matusz (9-12, 4.40, 169.2 IP, 134 K, 61 BB), Danny Valencia (.323/.362/463, 7 HR, 40 RBI), John Jaso (.266/.377/.384, 59 BB, 39 K, 40 RBI)

The Yankees don’t have anyone remotely in the converstation for Rookie of the Year. MLB.com has a top rookie tracker that lists more than 40 American League players, and there’s not a single Yankee on the list. Instead, the award seems be between Feliz and former Yankees minor leaguer Jackson. Boesch was an early favorite, but his second-half numbers are terrible. Davis, on the other hand, came into his own in the second half. Prediction: I’d love to say Jackson because I like the guy, but I think Feliz will win by a lot.

Manager of the Year
Top Yankee candidate: Joe Girardi (Got his team into the wild card lead and in the hunt for the best record in baseball)
Favorites: Ron Washington (ran away with the AL West), Ron Gardenhire (lost his closer and his MVP and still had one of the best teams in the league)
Four more: Terry Francona (so many injuries he used 30 different position players this season), Joe Maddon (right now he has the best record in the AL), Cito Gaston (Might have won any other divison), Buck Showalter (turned the Orioles around from last-place team to dangerous late-place team)

Washington was the early favorite, but Gardenhire might have taken that spot in the last month or so. Without Joe Nathan or Justin Morneau, the Twins have been outstanding. They’re good every year, so it’s hardly a surprise, but this might be Gardenhire’s best season. Prediction: Gardenhire in an insanely close vote. I’ll guess Girardi finishes fifth.

Comments

comments

 

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149 Responses to “The Cy Young and the MVP”

  1. JobaTipsHisCap September 30th, 2010 at 4:47 pm

    after spending more than $20M, we still don’t have the 4th pitcher.

  2. pat September 30th, 2010 at 4:48 pm

    Morneau taking BP today with the team

  3. Erin September 30th, 2010 at 4:50 pm

    Cano for MVP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  4. Erin September 30th, 2010 at 4:51 pm

    Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 4:43 pm
    Why do I NEVER notice the google doodle?????

    *************************
    I’ve gotten to the point where I’m disappointed if there’s not a doodle. LOL

  5. m September 30th, 2010 at 4:51 pm

    I think Chad and Washington have been hanging out too much. Both thinking that Washington ran away with the AL East. ;)

    That Girardi is one smart feller. He’s spot on with the AL West pitchers.

    Cano is not on the leaderboard for avg., but Hamilton has missed significant time lately. You would get dinged for that on most ballots. Cabrera is having a good year, but the context? And Cano plays well on both sides of the ball.

    Cano and CC. No argument really.

  6. tyanksfan36 September 30th, 2010 at 4:54 pm

    Besides Jeter, when was the last time the Yankees had a rookie of the year candidate? To me they don’t let their players develop when they can just go out and get an established player. IMO that is sad because they ship them off and we never see them reach their potential(jackson, kennedy) I mean, I’ve never had a problem with Granderson because I know his injury probably affected him more than we could know.

  7. m September 30th, 2010 at 4:54 pm

    Does Price have another start? If he does and he wins, I could see him getting the Cy Young. He would reach the magic # of 20 and most likely helped his team to the AL East title with that win.

    But CC would trade Cy’s for rings I’m sure.

  8. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 4:55 pm

    Honestly, even suggesting Soriano to be in the conversation with Crawford or Longoria is an insult to the progress we’ve made in understanding the game of baseball over the last 30 years. I enjoy a lot of the work you do Chad, but you’re WAY off on that one. Not only is Soriano no where near as valuable as them, but he’s CLEARLY less valuable than Price and Garza (even by old school measures) and, in my opinion, less valuable than Shields as well. I think Upton, Zobrist and Jaso are better contenders than Soriano. Simply put, 60 innings, even 60 fantastic innings, aren’t all that valuable.

    I’d also point out that Jered Weaver is a Cy Young contender, not Jeff…

  9. Bronx Jeers September 30th, 2010 at 4:57 pm

    If only they had awards for the worst players.

    Like The Razzies.

    AJ could win the Cy Dung.

  10. Cashman needs to go September 30th, 2010 at 4:58 pm

    JobaTipsHisCap September 30th, 2010 at 4:47 pm
    after spending more than $20M, we still don’t have the 4th pitcher.
    **********

    and hence one of the MANY reasons for my sign on name..

    ruben amaro jr is a complete idiot – he nearly sabotaged his teams chances of winning the WS this year by trading cliff lee after he got halladay…but the guy acknowledged he f’d up by going out and getting roy oswalt to make up for it….the phillies now have arguably the best front 3 starters for the postseason..(with a viable 4th starter)

    cashman knew he f’d up not only with vazquez but he also knew burnett could not be trusted – i give him some credit for attempting to get lee (although ultimately he chickened out when he was asked for more) but how do you strike out with dan haren (the angels gave up dirt for him), ted lilly and about 3 other pitchers that may have helped more than moseley, nova and the rest of the scrubs they run out every day (gaudin, mitre etc)..i guess sidney ponson wasn’t available for cashman to sign for an unprecedented third time…

  11. Robin September 30th, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    The Boston mafia, including Abraham and Gammons, keep campaigning for Francona as manager of the year.

  12. tyanksfan36 September 30th, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    Apparently people do buy playoff attire. A girl in my class is wearing a TB shirt that says “playoffs” in that plaid they wore yesterday and “2010 Postseason” under it.

  13. YankFanCA September 30th, 2010 at 5:02 pm

    Who cares about individual awards. The Yankees have always been about team success. Let’s hope they remember that formula, which has eluded them so often of late.

  14. 108 stitches September 30th, 2010 at 5:02 pm

    Split vote between Burnett and Vazquez for the “Flop of the Year” award. Both deserve the award.

  15. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 5:03 pm

    Re: Francona. Boston used 30 position players this year, not 42.

  16. Erin September 30th, 2010 at 5:03 pm

    tyanksfan36 September 30th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
    Apparently people do buy playoff attire. A girl in my class is wearing a TB shirt that says ?playoffs? in that plaid they wore yesterday and ?2010 Postseason? under it.

    ******************************
    Figures it would be a TB fan. ;)

  17. tyanksfan36 September 30th, 2010 at 5:06 pm

    Erin says:

    September 30, 2010 at 5:03 pm

    tyanksfan36 September 30th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
    Apparently people do buy playoff attire. A girl in my class is wearing a TB shirt that says ?playoffs? in that plaid they wore yesterday and ?2010 Postseason? under it.

    ******************************
    Figures it would be a TB fan. ?

    ———-

    Yeah I know it would be, they have to add it to their collection of…one postseason shirt. Lol

  18. Chad Jennings September 30th, 2010 at 5:07 pm

    Last night people thought I was serious when I said I didn’t know how “Canadian time” was converted to New York time.

    Now that I’m getting East and West mixed up, maybe those folks were right to be concerned.

  19. Robin September 30th, 2010 at 5:08 pm

    Price has an edge simply because sports writers hate to vote for a yankee under any circumstance. Given a viable alternative, they’ll always go against Yanks.

    Anyone see Thomas Boswell say he hates the yankees so much that he had to swallow bile when covering the 1996 world series team.

  20. Ruby Tuesday September 30th, 2010 at 5:08 pm

    co-Cy Youngs: C. B. + J*n L*st*r (2010 AND 2011 – 2017)

    MVP: *dri*n B*ltr*

  21. Yanks78 September 30th, 2010 at 5:12 pm

    “Does Price have another start?”

    Yes, but it falls on Sunday. So if he pitches that game, he won’t be ready until Game 3 of the ALDS. No way Maddon goes that route, even if its for the division.

  22. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:12 pm

    Chad,

    Too much partying. Perhaps you should settle down. A good woman would clear the fog. ;)

  23. Chad Jennings September 30th, 2010 at 5:12 pm

    I definitely read today that it was 42 position players for the Red Sox, then checked their stats and they have 42 listed, but that apparently includes all pitchers who played in NL games. My bad. Apparently my head is still in Canada.

  24. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:13 pm

    Yanks78,

    Thanks for that. He’s on the same schedule as CC basically?

  25. hardwired7 September 30th, 2010 at 5:17 pm

    Price is in line to pitch Sunday, and there’s no way that’s happening.

    it looks like he’s made his last start of the regular season, so he won’t get to 20 wins (unless he vultures one out of the bullpen over the weekend).

  26. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 5:18 pm

    Cy Young is interesting this year because it’s a true test of old school vs. new school. Advanced stats made HUGE strides into the mainstream to have Greinke win the award last year – never would’ve happened even 10 years ago. If old school wins out then Sabathia wins easily, if advanced analysis has truly entered the mainstream then Hernandez wins easily – though both camps could make a pretty damn good case for Lester (depending on how you interpret and weigh park factors).

  27. Yanks78 September 30th, 2010 at 5:19 pm

    m,

    For a while he was, yes, but since we have an off-day today and Tampa plays today… Sunday would be AJ’s turn in the rotation if they kept everyone on schedule. Though CC obviously would be on regular rest to pitch that game

  28. REZ12 September 30th, 2010 at 5:23 pm

    Lester has a chance to get to 20 wins tonight

    Price probably made his last start

  29. pat September 30th, 2010 at 5:23 pm

    kellythesier Morneau now taking ground balls at first base #twins

  30. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:25 pm

    Neither CC nor Cano will win, but I don’t care. All I know is that CC carried this staff – and as underrated as I think he is, he’s a remarkable pitcher.

    Cano really tailed off, unfortunately, but if it wasn’t for him, I don’t think this team is where it is now. For much of the year, he was the only one doing anything offensively

  31. upstate kate September 30th, 2010 at 5:25 pm

    I had no problem w/ Greinke last year…but last year there were no 20 game winners. Advanced stats are fine, but wins should count heavily as well, especially for someone who carried his team into the play offs the 2nd half.

    and on Robbie’s behalf, he has had ONE game off all season, he has good numbers and is outstanding on defense.

  32. upstate kate September 30th, 2010 at 5:27 pm

    not to mention how Robbie excelled in the clean up spot when Alex was out

  33. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    All the candidates for both awards are deserving. I’d love to see our Yankees win them, but at least this year, I don’t think I’d have a complaint about someone else doing so.

    I kind of never expect Yankees to win those awards unless there is no doubt involved at all. Cano’s BA and CC’s ERA create doubt that allows voters to not put them #1.

  34. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    MVP ! Cy Young! I reckon that is synonymous with the conducts of one particular individual who has sacrificed everything in exchange for great benefits of lohudders. Though , the said person would be apt to bequeath such high honors to stand amongst us in gestures of humble unity.

  35. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    30 different position players is still absurd. it pains me to say it but i think Francona deserves MOY this season. i was really, really impressed with how Boston played the Yankees in the last series and how they didn’t give up until New York eliminated them the other day. even with all the injuries they made it interesting up til the last week. everyone was harping on how poor the Yankees were playing etc., but if you actually watched the games that last series you would see that Boston played their hearts out. just because one team isn’t playing at its best doesn’t automatically mean the other team is going to step up and take advantage. Boston played great and Francona deserves credit for keeping them focused. i think gardenhire is one of the most overrated managers of the past decade, don’t think he deserves MOY, that division is awful and generally has been for a while.

  36. YankFanCA September 30th, 2010 at 5:30 pm

    Betsy — CC is many things (most of them very positive), but underrated is certainly not one of them. A man his size, with his salary, playing in the biggest market, could never be underrated.

  37. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 5:30 pm

    It’s true if ARod had played a full season he would have to be in the conversation, too.

    Concerning Cano – who hit behind him most of the year? Wasn’t it a changing cast of characters? Imagine if Posada was healthy all year, or Granderson was as consistent all year? Or they didn’t have to move Swisher up to #2. I’ll bet anything Cano’s BA would have been higher.

  38. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 5:31 pm

    I also see Austin Jackson BA dropped below .300. Hmmmm.

  39. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:32 pm

    CC is not underrated, but maybe he is underappreciated.

  40. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 5:33 pm

    Upstate Kate: Advanced stats and wins are specifically at odds. Advanced stats prove time and again that wins are meaningless. Every analysis of pitchers ‘pitching to the scoreboard’ has been proven false (you can do this by looking at someone like Jack Morris’ stats with ties, 1 run splits, 2 run splits, etc). If you want to say Hernandez doesn’t deserve it because he pitched in an easier park or with a better defense or something like that – and Sabathia overcame those things with the Yankees then I think that’s a great argument. Hell, there might be something to the notion that Hernandez has an easier road pitching in Seattle out of contention with a small press contingent. But wins are purely a function of run support, look at the recent column from Joe Posnanski that literally goes start-by-start through Sabathia and Hernandez’s season – if you go 8 innings, give 1 run and lose it isn’t the pitcher’s fault, something that happens to Hernandez all the time. If Felix pitched for the Yankees I feel confident he’d have won 25+ games.

    I look at it this way, in 2001 Clemens won the Cy Young because he had a ton of wins. But that year I believe that in every single way Mike Mussina was a better pitcher for the Yankees, he just didn’t have the benefit of Clemens’ run support. Today, Mussina might beat Clemens and I think that’s progress – and basically what we’re dealing with this year.

  41. Wave Your Hat September 30th, 2010 at 5:33 pm

    As a NY fan I am rooting for CC of course, but it’s hard to see the voters crediting CC’s 2 extra wins over Price’s half-run ERA advantage.

    I don’t see Lester winning it, his votes will either go to CC’s win advantage or Price’s ERA advantage.

    I think Hernandez has been the all-around best pitcher (if we were choosing up teams from scratch I think I would pick him over CC), but I agree with Chad that his win total will be heavily penalized by enough voters to keep him from winning.

  42. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:34 pm

    Underappreciated – yes. There are people like Neyer who think CC isn’t one of the best pitchers in baseball – ridiculous.

  43. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 5:36 pm

    sans the great elf and Youk , Francona warrants MOY consideration in keeping that team galvanized. If Master Hughes had simply failed in his most recent endeavors we would have been undoubtedly a mass hysteria amongst this populace and possibly facing elimination games in this upcoming foray into beantown.

    Any lesser of a man than Tito would have crumbled under such dire circumstance. MOY indeed.

  44. YankFanCA September 30th, 2010 at 5:36 pm

    Not even underappreciated, in my opinion. Everyone here knows he is the only Yankee starter who gives the team an overwhelming chance of victory when he pitches.

    Hughes provides a solid chance
    Pettitte provides a solid/decent chance (used to be higher; we shall see)
    All the rest — far below 50% chance of victory, especially in games that matter a lot

  45. pat September 30th, 2010 at 5:37 pm

    kellythesier
    Morneau ruled out possibility of return for ALDS. But hopes that he might be ready for ALCS if #Twins make it there.

  46. MG September 30th, 2010 at 5:37 pm

    BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
    Upstate Kate: Advanced stats and wins are specifically at odds. Advanced stats prove time and again that wins are meaningless
    —————————————-
    Unfortunately for the advanced metric crowd this is a game that is determined by wins and losses, not sabermetrics. To call a win meaningless just shows how far from reality these concepts fall relative to the game.

  47. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 5:38 pm

    i think that Felix getting over .500 could be big. even with the rightful movement away from the significance of the win stat in a certain season, i cannot see the voters giving the Cy Young to a pitcher with a .500 or less W-L record. however when you consider all meaningful stats, and then now that Felix is over .500 at 13-12, i think his chances are decent.

  48. MG September 30th, 2010 at 5:39 pm

    Actually, wins and losses prove time and again that sabermetrics are worthless…

  49. YankFanCA September 30th, 2010 at 5:39 pm

    Speaking of the Yankees playoff rotation; if they do indeed decide to pitch Awful AJ, they should plan to carry another pitcher, because his leash can’t be longer than 2 or 3 runs. He normally hits that mark by the third inning.

  50. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:40 pm

    In Boston’s case, it’s a matter of (unfortunately) Beltre, Ortiz, and Drew performing well. And the misfits fitting in. And two good starters collecting nearly 40 wins.

    Sure he kept them from totally collapsing, but I don’t think the Sox would stop competing. He deserved it moy consideration, but the players did well, not Tito.

  51. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:41 pm

    He’s not underappreciated here, but I don’t think he gets the national love that some others do.

    In any case, we’re lucky to have one of the few real aces in baseball. I hope we’ll have another one next year and that maybe Phil will become that one day as well………..I dream of that rotation, lol

  52. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 5:41 pm

    W-L record for one season can be totally meaningless. if playing for a horrible offensive team for multiple seasons W-L for pitchers can be meaningless. but assuming a pitcher pitches for multiple seasons and is not ALWAYS on a team with an offense as bad as the Mariners, over time W-L obviously would speak to how good a pitcher is.

  53. MG September 30th, 2010 at 5:42 pm

    and before anyone accuses me of being a neanderthal when it comes to the use of statistics I have over 35 years of experience in business directly related to the use of statistics for process control and analysis. In order for a statistic, any statistic, to be relevant it has to correlate to the end product or result. In the case of baseball it is Wins and Losses, period. Just throwing statistics out there that make something look good has no significance unless it is shown to predict more wins, period.

  54. Jason Voorhees September 30th, 2010 at 5:42 pm

    Well it seems Jeff Weaver’s career has bounced back nicely…

    …I guess his poor younger brother Jered is the one for the Dodgers pitching to the 6.01 ERA

    [sarcasm]

  55. Wave Your Hat September 30th, 2010 at 5:42 pm

    “There are people like Neyer who think CC isn’t one of the best pitchers in baseball – ridiculous.”

    Betsy, I think you are confused with respect to Neyer. Link?

  56. pat September 30th, 2010 at 5:43 pm

    Epstein: Lack of run prevention did us in

    Epstein acknowledged that the Red Sox were close to acquiring reliever Kerry Wood at the deadline, but ultimately got outbid by the Yankees.

    “That was an important decision,” Epstein said. “We scouted [Wood] on rehab, we liked what we saw. He was available last minute at the deadline … and we put in what I thought was a pretty aggressive financial bid for him and we were outbid by the Yankees when they were willing to take on just a little bit more of his salary. It ended up being a great move for them and cost us.”

    http://sports.espn.go.com/bost.....id=5634198

  57. YankFanCA September 30th, 2010 at 5:43 pm

    As far as Boston is concerned, thank goodness Beckett and Lackey underachieved significantly, or it’s likely they would have made the playoffs even with all the injuries to their position players. We need to hope they perform similarly in 2011.

  58. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:43 pm

    M, you could say that about any manager. I don’t really care one way or the other, but at one point in the season, it looked pretty bad for the Sox – with the infighting and such. Francona’s a terrific manager; if he wins, no problem with that.

    If AJ is on the roster, it’s only because the other options are unpalatable. There is no need to go with more than 3 starters in the ALDS, but I have a feeling if he pitches well Saturday, he may well get a start (meaning #2 or #3)

  59. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 5:44 pm

    MG – Of course wins and losses are all that matter FOR A TEAM.

    I’m talking about pitcher wins and they’re irrelevant. I believe that Felix Hernandez (and Jon Lester for that matter) gave their team a better chance to win when they pitched than Sabathia. None of this is to take away from Sabathia, he’s clearly one of the ten best pitchers in baseball and I love rooting for him. The goal of advanced statistical analysis is to find the best way to win the actual games and to find out what players best contribute to that effort – not to accumulate meaningless win-loss record statistics. My point is that wins and losses are an exceedingly poor way to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher. Even a simple, non advanced stat, like quality starts (at least 6IP and 3ER or less allowed) comes closer to evaluating how well a pitcher has kept his team in games than wins and losses – Hernandez has 4 more than Sabathia and leads baseball.

  60. Jason Voorhees September 30th, 2010 at 5:44 pm

    *6.09. whoops. can’t even copy baseball-reference correctly.

  61. Wave Your Hat September 30th, 2010 at 5:44 pm

    MG-

    Do you think, over all pitchers and years, past wins correlate highly to future wins?

  62. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:45 pm

    Wave, I’m not confused at all………Neyer absolutely said that CC is not one of the best pitchers in baseball. If I can find a link later, I will, but I posted it a few weeks ago.

  63. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 5:45 pm

    MG – I completely agree with that last comment you made. What matters is the TEAM winning and losing games, not the wins and losses statistic for pitchers.

  64. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 5:45 pm

    m, with that logic, the managers are completely worthless and any human with a knowledge of how the game of baseball works is as good a choice as Francona or any other MLB manager. that doesn’t make sense. Boston’s roster was decimated and the players could have easily punted or lost focus at times. instead they never gave up. a lot of credit has to go to the manager for that, period. you cannot always give the players all the credit or all the blame, especially for a team that had so many injuries. in some cases managers DO make a positive difference, and clearly Francona motivated his team and kept them focused despite all the obstacles they faced. he deserves MOY.

  65. YankFanCA September 30th, 2010 at 5:46 pm

    Don’t worry, Betsy; Burnett will not pitch well in Boston. That’s almost a given, even when he’s pitching to a sub-5 ERA. He will most assuredly spit the bit again.

  66. Wave Your Hat September 30th, 2010 at 5:46 pm

    Actually, quality starts, for such a simple stat, are a surprisingly good way to judge a pitcher.

  67. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 5:47 pm

    mg the point is that a pitcher’s W-L record can be affected by many things that he doesn’t have control over. his poor record for a season could be almost entirely due to a terrible offense, for example. you think 1-0 losses are a pitcher’s fault?

  68. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:47 pm

    pat,

    Interesting. At the time the Sox were already out of it. The top 3 in the AL east have basically played at the same pace since the deadline. I don’t think they wanted to shell out for a sinking ship. If your team is in it, then you make that deal.

    And oh, how the bridges in Boston are built with irony! Run prevention was their mantra, their big sell to the fans. Oh, the irony!

    Speaking of irony, isn’t it weird that the owner of the Segway company died falling off a Segway?

  69. Jason Voorhees September 30th, 2010 at 5:47 pm

    Taking Rob Neyer seriously is the equivalent to taking Bill Simmons seriously. Neither should be done.

  70. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:47 pm

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweets.....e-stand-up

    Granted this was early in the season, but please – not a perennial Cy Young candidate based on early struggles?

  71. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:48 pm

    It’s amazing how bad AJ has been in Boston as a Yankee; he killed it as a Jay

  72. Don Vito A. Bellamo September 30th, 2010 at 5:49 pm

    manager of the year ? funny stuff ! Jarhead ???

  73. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 5:49 pm

    Also, I remember Neyer did a chat where he specifically said CC was not one of the best pitchers in the game……….

    I don’t know which of these so-called experts to take seriously. At various times, they eventually say ridiculous things.

  74. pat September 30th, 2010 at 5:50 pm

    m

    I would expect that Theo would be in on Kerry this off season if they were willing to make a move on him at the trade deadline.

    In for how much remains the question.

  75. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:50 pm

    No, I’m not saying he doesn’t deserve it. In fact he’s the best person for the reason that the Sox are not going to end up too far out (thanks to the ineptitude of the division champ and WC team).

    And I’m not saying that they manager is a complete waste of space.

    Basically, the players that were supposed to step up did. If Papi does what he did last year? Francona doesn’t get a single vote. The players stepped up. Both the old guys and the new ones.

    And they play that stupid park.

  76. MG September 30th, 2010 at 5:53 pm

    Wave Your Hat September 30th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
    MG-

    Do you think, over all pitchers and years, past wins correlate highly to future wins?
    —————————————————
    WYH, I’ve never really thought that much about it but I do. Andy Pettitte has a great lifetime winning percentage but I’m sure his ‘peripherals’ aren’t all that great. I’m also sure he hasn’t had great run support in his entire career as well. But he has won consistently for his whole career, that has to say something significant about the value of a pitcher. Nolan Ryan, for all his great career stats, was only slightly over .500 in his career. I saw him pitch pretty often and the reason for that is not so much a lack of run support but just inconsistency.

    Felix Hernandez is a tremendous pitcher who will win Cy Young Awards in the future but I just don’t believe that a 13-12 pitcher, no matter how good his stats are, deserves to win the award for best pitcher when others have 8-9 more wins and less losses. Greinke won it last year with a 16-8 record, that’s a significant upgrade over the team’s record.

  77. REZ12 September 30th, 2010 at 5:55 pm

    m,

    Yet when Girardi won 89 games in 2008 when we were decimated, he got killed. We were just as much in contention in 2008 as Boston was this year. In fact, the 2010 Sox and 2008 Yanks were both eliminated the same day (Tuesday of the last week), IIRC.

  78. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:56 pm

    Didn’t Wedge win it one year? Washington won it last year for a bounceback year, not a division winning year. I could see Gardenhire winning it. Doesn’t he always get votes for keeping the Twins at the top?

  79. MG September 30th, 2010 at 5:56 pm

    BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 5:45 pm
    MG – I completely agree with that last comment you made. What matters is the TEAM winning and losing games, not the wins and losses statistic for pitchers.
    ——————————
    cool, I’m not taking issue with the use of statistics in baseball but need to see correlation between the advanced stats and a team’s win-loss record over time to be impressed with them.

    Kevin, 1-0 losses aren’t a pitchers fault, of course, but as I’ve said I don’t think you can give someone a Cy Young award for pitching in bad luck for a season. CC has carried the Yankees rotation in the 2nd half and gets the award in my book. I don’t vote so it doesn’t matter anyway :)

  80. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 5:56 pm

    Actually, wins and losses prove time and again that sabermetrics are worthless…
    ———————————————
    ? When man acquires a better tool he uses it. Team WINs and Losses are paramount to the end equation. There are better ways to measure a pitcher’s ability and performance than the archaic Win stat, which simply states the said pitcher left the game after 5 inning with the team leading and the that team held the lead.

    When there are a better stats such as FIP, Babip, Whip , etc, etc… in which each individual parts contribute to a great details of a pitcher independent ability than a simple win stat. It’s reason and logic that drives the reasonable men to use those over WIN. Win is not a meaningless stat , however it is simply not a good stat that paints the most accurate pictures
    of a pitcher performance.

    There is no greater example than King Felix in this case.

  81. m September 30th, 2010 at 5:59 pm

    Yankees never get the credit they deserve. Alex used to, but that’s about it for awards.

  82. Wave Your Hat September 30th, 2010 at 5:59 pm

    You have to define the context when talking about stats. Sweeping statements about stats like “wins” and “sabremetrics” are meaningless if you don’t do that.

    If you want to know which pitcher got the most wins this year, then of course, “wins” is the pre-eminent stat. And certainly, when looking at who contributed to a team’s past success, a pitcher’s wins are very important

    But if you are a GM, or a fan pretending to be a GM, and want to know the free agent pitcher to buy to give your team the most wins next year, I don’t recommend looking at “wins”. It doesn’t have much predictive value.

    If you want to know who that free agent pitcher is, I suggest looking at “simple” counting stat ratios like K/9, W/9, K/W, and “sabremetric” formulas like ERA+ and FIP.

    Most GMs do these days. There’s a reason for it, baseball has become big business and mistakes are very costly. The old verities (like “wins being the mark of a pitcher”) often produce costly problems.

  83. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:02 pm

    If one of our pitchers had a 2+ ERA and was only 1 game over .500, no way I would argue for him to get the award over a 21 game winner. I don’t care who it is and that the losses weren’t his fault, I’m not going to argue for it.

  84. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 6:03 pm

    i don’t remember totally but i don’t think the 2008 yankees had injuries to the magnitude of the Red Sox this year. Youkilis and Pedroia, the heart and soul of their whole team, out for the season? Ellsbury, cameron, victor martinez, beckett, i mean come on the Yankees of 2008 i really don’t think had to deal with as much as Boston this year.

    gardenhire will obviously gets votes and may win it, but i give way more credit to Minnesota’s general manager. that division has been dominated by the Twins since the early 2000s and aside from the White Sox’s flukey title in 2005 (they played the astros!!), it’s been all Twins all the time in the central. their roster is just always far superior to the other teams, a monkey could manage that team to divsion titles. Plus, gardenhire has never reached the Series, he’s nothing special and his in game management is very very questionable at times.
    Matt guerrier to face A-Rod with the bases loaded?? Sign me up!

  85. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 6:04 pm

    please offers us more concrete arguments to back up your assertions , MG.

  86. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 6:05 pm

    who cares if the Yankees don’t get enough credit? the players on the other teams and everyone in all the organizations know how great the Yankees as a franchise are. they’ve won more titles than any sports franchise, they garner huge respect from people within sports. they take satisfaction in being professional and putting an excellent product on the field so they can try to take the title every year, both for their team and their fans. they don’t care about “credit” from the freaking media. they care about wins, titles, and their fans. that’s it.

  87. Yank 97 September 30th, 2010 at 6:06 pm

    King Felix has 30 quality starts this year (28 if you count unearned runs).

    His ERA is almost 1-run lower than CC and is better in every statistical category – WHIP, BAA, K.9, K/BB, innings, etc.

    It is unprecedented though, in the modern era, for a player with that dominant of a season to have such a low win total. Going to be an interesting dilemma for the voters.

  88. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 6:07 pm

    they also care about making a difference in the community, as they’ve shown time and time again, their players are usually always more proactive with stuff like that and with the awesome addition of HOPE week that’s furthered it. they know they compete to win a championship for everyone involved with the Yankees, and they take pride in that and doing what they can for the community. if you know you’ve done a good job, you shouldn’t need other people giving you credit to reinforce that.

  89. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:08 pm

    i don’t care, that was more of a response to the person who countered that girardi didn’t get the same consideration that’s being given to tito (who has never had a 1st or 2nd place moy vote!).

    and no, our injuries don’t stack up to the sox this season. losing youk and pedroia are big blows. (btw is varitek still playing? i hear absolutely nothing about him)

    but if we have wang in 2008, we’re in guaranteed.

  90. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:10 pm

    And tho that looked like a complaint, it wasn’t.

    It’s a fact that the Yankees don’t get credit. Bias, payroll, all-star roster all rolled into one.

  91. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:10 pm

    You have to look at Felix game logs. He didn’t lose every game 1-0. It’s true he didn’t get lots of run support, but he had his share of losses where he have up over 4 runs. When he wins, though, he doesn’t give up any runs! And he had an awful May.

  92. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:11 pm

    Game log? You mean they still have those things? ;)

  93. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:13 pm

    Awful might be overstating it. :?

  94. 108 stitches September 30th, 2010 at 6:14 pm

    The onus will be on Girardi and Cashman if both Vazquez and Burnett are used in the postseason and either or both are ultimately responsible for losses just like their most recent ones of both giving up 7 runs by the 4th inning. It will be bantered about until next spring and beyond.
    Realizing that postseason rosters had to be submitted weeks ago, Cashman can get creative in roster changes by Monday of next week.

  95. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:14 pm

    m -

    On baseball-reference.com

    And I have a bad habit of reading it too fast. Looked at runs, not earned runs. Still, in games that Seattle ended up losing when Felix pitched, there were games that weren’t of the 2-1, 1-0 variety. :)

  96. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 6:16 pm

    The argument can be presented as such.
    1. Win is not a reliable stat in evaluating a pitcher ability and performance .
    2. The so call advance metric does presents a more detail picture of such.
    3 Logic dictates , you use the most reliable stats over the unreliable.

  97. MG September 30th, 2010 at 6:18 pm

    I don’t need to prove my ‘assertion’ it is my opinion based on playing and watching baseball for well over 50 years.

    But here is one telling stat for me:

    when given 3-5 runs in a game, Felix and CC both have an 8-2 record. ERA means nothing in this stat, it is all about being competitive. So call them even here (they are both unbeaten with 6+ runs in a game) and CC has 8 more wins in a tougher division so my vote goes to him.

  98. MG September 30th, 2010 at 6:19 pm

    Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
    You have to look at Felix game logs. He didn’t lose every game 1-0. It’s true he didn’t get lots of run support, but he had his share of losses where he have up over 4 runs. When he wins, though, he doesn’t give up any runs! And he had an awful May.
    ——————–
    Felix’ ERA in losses is 4.54…

  99. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 6:21 pm

    felix hernandez has had 3 games all season in which he gave up more than 4 runs. he lost all 3.

    CC has had 7 games in which he gave up more than 4 runs. he lost 4 out of the 7.

    on the other hand, felix had 17 starts where he’s given up 3 runs or less and either lost or had a no decision. 17.

    CC has had 7 starts where he’s given up 3 runs or less and had a no decision or loss.

  100. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:21 pm

    Hernandez had 2 games of 7 ER. He’d be in the 1+ ERA range if he didn’t have those stinkers. He got very little run support, too.

    CC should also have more wins. He has one 1-0 loss, but he had more than a few 1, 2 ER losses. And I think there was a blown save in at least one of his games.

  101. Yank 97 September 30th, 2010 at 6:23 pm

    “And I think there was a blown save in at least one of his games.”

    Joba blew 4+ run leads twice for CC (Boston, Cleveland) when he was in line for the win.
    Was also 1 out away from a win against Boston before the rain came.

  102. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:23 pm

    MG -

    Oh, he’s really, really good. Like I said, I have a bad, bad habit of reading the stats too fast. :oops:

  103. MG September 30th, 2010 at 6:24 pm

    Hernandez deserved the Cy Young in 2009, he had a great season.

    There is no winning answer here, it’s an award voted on by sportswriters and not exactly the defining moment for baseball. I’ll take a World Series victory over individual awards any day.

  104. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 6:25 pm

    CC is a great pitcher- no doubt about it. and none of these stats can make up the difference that lies in the fact that CC pitches for the Yankees, in the toughest division in baseball, with absolutely massive expecations and responsiblity. so much of the Yankees success as a TEAM falls in CC’s massive hands. every time he pitches the pressure is unbelievable. in no way can Felix, pitching for a last place team, feel that pressure when he pitches. his starts simply aren’t that important as far as the landscape of the league goes. CC’s in a different galaxy as far as pressure and expectations and stress goes.

    that being said, i still think Felix deserves it based on the fact he’s pitched the best overall. CC is way more VALUABLE, though.

  105. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:25 pm

    Oh, MG -

    Also, all I really wanted to point out is that I think there is this perception that he is never responsible for his team’s losses. And while that may be true often, it is not always true. :?

  106. MG September 30th, 2010 at 6:26 pm

    Doreen, I was being supportive of your post by posting his ERA in losses… :)

  107. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:28 pm

    Yanks 97,

    Thanks, I thought it was 2, and I thought it was Joba. But I didn’t want to say without knowing for sure. And the last thing I wanted to do was go and hunt down confirmation that it was indeed Joba who blew the two saves. Water under the bridge. :(

  108. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:30 pm

    On the other hand, he (Felix) had a few NDs where he gave up not so many runs.

  109. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:31 pm

    MG -

    I should just give up today!!! :lol:

    Do they use MSG in restaurants such as TGIF? I had a chicken salad there today while I was out and I was foggy the rest of the day.

  110. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 6:32 pm

    Opinion :A belief or conclusion held with confidence but not substantiated by positive knowledge or proof:

    I guess we will end our conversation there.

  111. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:32 pm

    I think it was the frozen mixed beverage you had. ;)

  112. G. Love September 30th, 2010 at 6:32 pm

    If Cano gets to 30 HR’s before the end of the weekend it’s not outlandish to think he’ll get the MVP.

    Hamilton has spent a lot of time with injuries and Cano has been in pretty much every game with exceptional defense to boot.

    I completely disagree with Francona as a manager of the year.

    Maddon and Gardenhire did far better jobs with less. Maddon especially. The Red Sox have a 100 million dollar advantage over the Rays and Maddon made the team win.

    Francona for MOY is just another Boston media ploy to make them lemmings feel good about the lost season.

    I won’t be shocked if Gammons comes out and proclaims Beltre for MVP, Lester for Cy, Francona for MOY and Kalish for ROY before the season is done.

    That said, I want CC to win it but if Felix takes it he earned it too.

  113. Patrick September 30th, 2010 at 6:34 pm

    As much as I love CC and Robbie, the MVP should be Josh Hamilton and the Cy Young should be Felix Hernandez.

  114. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:35 pm

    Like I said earlier – I’d love for our guys to win, but no problem with someone else – the other candidates are deserving.

  115. Doreen September 30th, 2010 at 6:37 pm

    m -

    Seriously, no, I only had water. Took daughter to doctor 1+hour drive away. I had a hard time driving home.

  116. MG September 30th, 2010 at 6:38 pm

    playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
    Opinion :A belief or conclusion held with confidence but not substantiated by positive knowledge or proof:

    I guess we will end our conversation there.
    ————————-
    since you believe that sabermetrics provide concrete evidence and significant correlation to team victories, why not present the proof in the form of backtested data over the past 50 years. Until you do, it’s all opinion, period.

  117. MG September 30th, 2010 at 6:38 pm

    One thing we all can agree on-Girardi is not a contender for manager of the year lol

  118. theREALkevin September 30th, 2010 at 6:39 pm

    i do think Cano should win the MVP. Hamilton doesn’t deserve it- he didn’t play a single game in all of September. if he had played this month, it’s his award running away, but i don’t think anyone missing the entire last month of the season deserves the MVP. Cabrera’s team sucks, if you take him off the team they still suck. so how could he be that valuable? if you take Cano off the Yanks, they miss the playoffs, his numbers are awesome and his defense is spectacular. he desrves to win it.

  119. Betsy September 30th, 2010 at 6:42 pm

    Cano has struggled too much lately to really be a viable choice for MVP.

  120. m September 30th, 2010 at 6:44 pm

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=5633968

    Changes in FA rules.

  121. West Coast Yankee Fan September 30th, 2010 at 6:44 pm

    IMO Cano’s second half means he won’t win the MVP. Sabathia I think will lose out to Felix. He’s been dominant.

  122. yankees4life September 30th, 2010 at 6:49 pm

    Hamilton had a GREAT June, July and August but does 3 months win an MVP? I don’t think so. He missed almost all of September so for all we know, he could have dropped 30-40 points and moved back down to the rest of the pack had he had a September similar to what he had in April. I really can’t say Cano will win it but since he was the Yankees MVP, I think it will be a very close 1-2 race with Josh. The sports writers who are Yankee haters could screw Robbie out of the award, similar to what they did with Jeter a couple of years ago.
    The Cy Young Award will be extremely interesting. It’s a 4 pitcher race in my eyes. King Felix had an easier division to pitch in, although he easily handled the Yankees this year. 14 wins can’t win out over a 21 win pitcher in a landslide vote. This will be a barnburner of a race but if CC is the only 20 game winner, I have to choose him. He also went 8-3 with a 3 ERA against the AL East.

  123. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 6:50 pm

    since you believe that sabermetrics provide concrete evidence and significant correlation to team victories, why not present the proof in the form of backtested data over the past 50 years. Until you do, it’s all opinion, period.
    ————————————————–
    This is what I said…

    The argument can be presented as such.
    1. Win is not a reliable stat in evaluating a pitcher ability and performance .
    2. The so call advance metric does presents a more detail picture of such.
    3 Logic dictates , you use the most reliable stats over the unreliable.

    The assertion is very simple, Win is not reliable stats in measuring a pitcher’s individual performances.

    How did you even arrive to those above conclusions with what I stated ? That’s a preposterously distortion of the reality on your part , Sir.

  124. austinmac September 30th, 2010 at 6:51 pm

    I know it would never happen, but thinking back over the season it seems clear to me that without CC the Yankees would be a far different team, and he should be an MVP candidate. He was utterly irreplaceable.

  125. Patrick September 30th, 2010 at 6:52 pm

    Hamilton does enough when healthy to warrant the MVP. He has helped his team more than Cano, it’s as simple as that.

  126. Jerkface September 30th, 2010 at 7:00 pm

    Pitcher wins and losses don’t matter, they’re arbitrarily defined, especially in relievers. team wins and losses matter. It doesn’t matter which pitcher gets the win, it matters that the team does, so I don’t think arguing that pitcher wins ‘are the goal’ or whatever is very wise.

  127. West Coast Yankee Fan September 30th, 2010 at 7:00 pm

    Wins are relatively unimportant as they should be in a Cy Young vote. Felix’s numbers are ridiculous:

    AL best 2.27 ERA

    AL best 232 strikeouts

    AL second best 6 complete games

    In his 12 losses, the Mariners have scored a total of eight runs. And no runs in his last five losses.

    AL best 249 2/3 innings pitched

    AL best WAR for pitchers – 6.0

    Felix has pitched at least seven innings in 25 consecutive starts.

    Felix has 30 quality starts this season (three runs or less pitching at least six innings).

  128. Jerkface September 30th, 2010 at 7:01 pm

    And the stats which correlate most to wins and losses in offensive players are OPS and wOBA. One is sabermetric, oh no.

  129. trisha - true pinstriped blue September 30th, 2010 at 7:08 pm

    “Win is not a reliable stat in evaluating a pitcher ability and performance .”

    Not to jump in and deal out of context but, win is unequivocally an unreliable stat in evaluating a pitcher ability and performance. You don’t even have to use a lot of brain power to start to list the reasons.

    Just stopping by to say hello. I had a long day. I went to a CLE today (education courses wen have to take in order to keep our standing as attorneys) and my car decided to die. I didn’t notice I was out of oil until the oil light went on, but that isnt the problem or at least not the only problem. If felt like it kept losing compression and backfiring and so instead of waiting for AAA since they anticipated at least an hour wait, I decided to nurse it to the garage that takes care of my car. So it was stop and go – and stop and go. I did get there though. So I left the car there and will know more tomorrow.

    I am covered with poison ivy and happily benadryl’d out, so I am totally mellow. I intend to watch the Rays game tonight. I have great faith in KC and even greater faith in our Yankees.

    I still can’t get past thinking that a 2-2-1 just doesn’t feel like home field advantage. I think I’d almost rather be the other team. Rule of thumb is split the first games. Then you go home for two. That feels like more of an advantage to me than the other way around. Yeah, if it goes to 5 games then you’re home for the 5th. I just never felt that the 2-2-1 felt like a huge advantage for the home team. JMO

    I love watching KC kick butt. They are serious about winning. Get that game to Soria and smile.

    :)

  130. trisha - true pinstriped blue September 30th, 2010 at 7:11 pm

    “Hamilton does enough when healthy to warrant the MVP. He has helped his team more than Cano, it’s as simple as that.”

    Again jumping in without having read a lot of the context – I typically read the posts right around where I’m posting – but just want to mention in case it hasn’t been mentioned that they said last night that no player who has played in fewer than 10 games (or is it fewer than 10 plate appearnces) in the month of September has ever won the mVP, and whichever it was is the case with Hamilton.

  131. Disco September 30th, 2010 at 7:12 pm

    Why would Soriano even be close to being considered for TB? He is a relief pitcher…

    Where is Francisco Liriano’s name? Look at his advanced stats and you will see why he is a top 3 candidate with Lee/Felix.

  132. 108 stitches September 30th, 2010 at 7:12 pm

    Using Cot’s as a reference, King Felix and Hamilton have clauses in their contracts with bonuses for Cy Young / MVP selections.
    Surprisingly, C.C. and Robby do not.

  133. NYY fan in NH September 30th, 2010 at 7:16 pm

    OMG! Espn is gonna air that show 30-30 about the Sox 2004 comeback called “4 days in Oct”.. I’m going to puke.. Can’t they let it go??

  134. playing hurt September 30th, 2010 at 7:17 pm

    sabermetric is a simple attempt to offer ppl’s new stats in evaluating objectively a player performances and value independent of their teams. The older stats such as win , average, ops is augmented by wOBA , w+RC,babip ,ISO, in sharing further lights on what a player objective value to a team is.

    Everyone reserves the rights to learn it or not . But to generally dismiss them as no value struck me as being irrational and illogical at best.

  135. NYY fan in NH September 30th, 2010 at 7:17 pm

    By the way, How serious is this Pettitte back issue today? This would be a major blow to a repeat WS. I am crossing my fingers!!

  136. RadioKev September 30th, 2010 at 7:21 pm

    What are pitchers supposed to do? Keep their teams in the game. Get wins.

    CC has a very good ERA, and very good numbers overall. Felix’s are definitely better. But who did their team better? CC. Giving up a a run or two doesn’t matter when your team is up, all that matters is delivering the win. At the end of the day, that’s more important – giving your team wins, versus giving up less runs.

    You can throw that argument out when talking about average pitchers. We all understand wins can be overrated, but CC is a great pitcher with 21 wins that are earned wins, not because team bailed him out constantly.

    I also think the high pressure situations & the divisional considerations are also important. The AL East is the best division in baseball by a long shot this year.

  137. NYY fan in NH September 30th, 2010 at 7:22 pm

    Felix has the best numbers, but he doesn’t pitch in the AL East like CC does regularly. 21 game winner and he’s in the middle of a very important race on a rotation that he’s heavily counted on.. Sorry Phil! I say it’s CC’s Cy Young. Sabathia’s won 59 games the last 3 seasons. Pretty consistent himself as far as getting it done on the mound!

  138. West Coast Yankee Fan September 30th, 2010 at 7:24 pm

    RadioKev – The Cy Young criteria calls for the award to be given to the “best pitcher”. Not the pitcher that made their team better. It is an individual award.

  139. West Coast Yankee Fan September 30th, 2010 at 7:26 pm

    NYY fan in NH – it would be categorically unfair IMO to give precedence in the Cy Young voting every year it to American League East players because it’s tougher.

  140. West Coast Yankee Fan September 30th, 2010 at 7:27 pm

    You can take into account the division a pitcher plays in, as one of the factors. But Felix’s stats are much better than Sabathia’s.

  141. trisha - true pinstriped blue September 30th, 2010 at 7:28 pm

    “OMG! Espn is gonna air that show 30-30 about the Sox 2004 comeback called “4 days in Oct”.. I’m going to puke.. Can’t they let it go??”

    Absolutely they cannot let it go because they are apparently too distraught to mention that the Yankees are going to the postseason and the Sux are not. Why else would they feel the need to show that? Why not show Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS? That has highlights enough to overwhlem the senses for a month. (It worked for me!) :)

  142. West Coast Yankee Fan September 30th, 2010 at 7:36 pm

    Sabathia had 17 starts against the AL East, Texas and Philly.

    King Felix had 15 starts against the AL East, Texas and Minnesota.

    Not much difference there is there?

  143. 4 NYY September 30th, 2010 at 7:47 pm

    Baseball seasons pay off in winning percentage. They’re ( writer-voters ) changing the so called rules a little. As good a s King Felix is, he just didn’t achieve enough wins IMO.

    MVP voting is also going back and forth. Sometimes guys like Ernie Banks would win without being on a good team, sometimes MVP’s coming from div. winners only.

    What are the rules governing said items ?

  144. Wang IS Taiwan September 30th, 2010 at 7:47 pm

    Girardi should not even be mentioned in that group of top managers.

    [Chad, sometimes I gotta wonder if you're related to Girardi. You do seem to be a Girardi apologist.]

    I’d give it to Gardenhire or Francona. Both were great and kept their teams motivated against the odds.

  145. RadioKev September 30th, 2010 at 8:11 pm

    ERA is a cut and dry stat, I appreciate that, but it doesn’t tell the whole story, just the same as Wins Losses don’t tell the story.

    A pitcher that only gives up one run in a game and losses, 1-0, still gave up that run and lost the game for his team. It could look great on paper, but at the end of the day – the opposing team beat him.

    A winning pitcher could win 4-3 and have gutted it out, dug deep, and won the game – earning that win against a formidable team.

    It just seems silly that most people treat it as common knowledge that the pitcher with the best ERA is the best pitcher. I say that it’s not necessarily true.

  146. RadioKev September 30th, 2010 at 8:23 pm

    Wang IS Taiwan September 30th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
    Girardi should not even be mentioned in that group of top managers.

    [Chad, sometimes I gotta wonder if you're related to Girardi. You do seem to be a Girardi apologist.]

    I’d give it to Gardenhire or Francona. Both were great and kept their teams motivated against the odds.

    ——

    Chad added him as “top Yankee favorite”.. I wonder why..

    Seriously, are you kidding? This team, as Chad, notes, is in the hunt for the best record in baseball. Bad managing can ruin that, and Girardi is far from a bad manager.

    For one, he and Eiland are on to something with the bullpen. The past three years now they’ve had solid bullpens, one thing Torre could not say in his later years. A lot of that can go to Cashman for making the right moves, or Eiland for the coaching, but also to Girardi for spreading work nicely and having faith in his guys who more often than not reach their potential under Girardi.

    I’m also sure as heck not going to fault him for his concerns about resting players. This team is banged up and has been banged up for the better part of the season now. What do you value more, a healthy team or home field advantage?

    Or how about Girardi having faith in guys like Granderson or Berkman or Jeter or Teixiera when any of the fantasy baseball addicted users out there would have traded, DFAed or sat any of them at their worst? This game isn’t fantasy baseball, it’s real, it involves real money, real actions and consequences, and real work.

    Girardi doesn’t deserve half the flack he gets on this board.

  147. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 11:20 pm

    Three quick points to start:
    1. Hernandez has to face the best offense in baseball (the Yankees), Sabathia doesn’t. In fact, Hernandez has faced the Yankees 3 times and he is 3-0 with a 0.35 ERA – that’s 1 ER in 26 innings against the best lineup in baseball with 31 Ks and a WHIP below 1.
    2. RadioKev: there’s a staggering amount of research that suggests that pitchers (included guys like Pettitte and Morris who are always said to ‘pitch to the scoreboard) do not actually pitch to the scoreboard. Morris, in fact, was just the opposite over the course of his career. He was worse in 1 run swing or tie situations than with a larger lead or deficit.
    3. There’s a simple distinction that I think might help people see where I’m coming from. The job of a major league pitcher, whether starter or reliever, IS NOT to get wins. The pitcher’s job is TO PREVENT THE OTHER TEAM FROM SCORING RUNS. It’s a subtle distinction but an important one – wins are a byproduct of the real mission of every pitcher.

    Look, if people want to believe that wins properly evaluate a pitcher’s skill set then a comment or two on this site (no matter how well written and thought out isn’t going to convert them). What I do challenge all of those people to do is to be open-minded that, just perhaps, the classical ways of evaluating the game are not necessarily the best ways. Try reading Joe Posnanski or Joe Sheehan from Sports Illustrated (Poz is their head baseball writer these days). Read Keith Law on ESPN. Or, even, give a site like Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus a shot. There seems to be a perception that people using advanced stats believe players are simply automatons and that baseball can basically be simulated on a computer with the same impact – this simply isn’t the case. There seems to be an idea that ‘new school’ fans believe Hernandez should get the Cy Young simply because he has the best xFIP, SNLVAR or pWAR – but this isn’t the case. Any good analysis recognizes that advanced stats are a tool – much like ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, etc – that help explain what happened in a game. Each stat is another tool to argue the merits of a player. Sabermetrically inclined people can and do come to different conclusions about who should win the Cy Young: many believe Hernandez, but some (like Bill James) would go Lester, other Sabathia or Lee or Price or Liriano. Much the same was as I don’t believe the Cy Young should be a SIERA title, I sure as hell don’t think it should be a Win title. I love advanced statistics because I think they gives me a greater understanding of the game and a greater understanding of why teams are successful. I also enjoy having discussion and debates about baseball that are based in facts, not in meaningless assertions like someone is a winner. I don’t understand the value of meaningless suppositions when, quite often, facts exist to prove a point. Look to some of those places I suggested and see if, just maybe, you like it…

    Most fans today recognize the importance of OBP and that errors are not a good way to evaluate the skill of a fielder (range is, of course, far more important). I can only hope that people will recognize the same thing about wins, RBIs and runs scored sooner rather than later so that our collective understanding of the game and level of discourse can improve.

    For what it’s worth if I had a ballot I’d go: Hernandez, Lester, Sabathia, Lee, Price

  148. BWOzar September 30th, 2010 at 11:25 pm

    MG: That sort of date DOES exist – but it’s not the sort of thing you can post succinctly in a comment on here. I’d send some Baseball Prospectus links but it’s subscriber only, suffice to say if you study the history of baseball stats like wOBA are FAR more correlative with offensive success than stats like AVG. A similar situation exists with using a pitcher’s FIP or xFIP to anticipate future performance, rather than his W-L record (or even his ERA) – and on this last point just ask Jerry DiPoto how trading for “proven winner” Joe Saunders has worked out for the Diamondbacks.

  149. CompassRosy October 1st, 2010 at 12:14 am

    Sorry, I’m a bit late to the party here, but couldn’t resist adding to the discussion of one of my all time favorite Mariners.

    Felix’ ERA in losses is 4.54…

    And CC’s ERA in losses is 6.29
    Felix’s combined ERA in his 13 wins and 9 ND’s is 1.38

    Felix has the best numbers, but he doesn’t pitch in the AL East like CC does regularly.

    And yet…
    ~Felix is 10-7 vs. teams with a .500 or better record (3-5 vs. teams under .500)
    ~CC is 7-3 vs. teams with a .500 or better record (14-4 vs. teams under .500)
    Seems like CC is the one feasting on weak sisters ;-)

    This is a little out dated (I’ve been busy) as it was prior to Felix’s last start (a win in Arlington) but his numbers only got better….
    http://tinyurl.com/29apyd5

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