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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Considering roster changes for the next round

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Oct 12, 2010 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

The Yankees will begin discussions tonight to determine whether they need to make any roster changes heading into the American League Championship Series. No change is going to be drastic. Alex Rodriguez isn’t going to be bumped from the cleanup spot, and Mariano Rivera isn’t going to be replaced in the ninth inning.

These three minor changes, though, might be worth considering.

ph_400291Long reliever
With A.J. Burnett back in the rotation, the Yankees will probably have room for only one true long man. Sergio Mitre is good for maybe three innings, but Girardi showed last year that he likes to have a guy stretched out well beyond 50 pitches just in case. Dustin Moseley was basically that guy for the division series, and he did the most during the season to earn the spot.

If the Yankees play Texas, Moseley might be a no-brainer. He has good career numbers against that lineup, and he made that strong spot start in Arlington earlier this season. Against Tampa Bay, though, Moseley hasn’t had quite the same success. It’s not a huge sample size, but the Rays have hit .483/.529/.931 against him as a team. If the Yankees can risk Ivan Nova pitching in relief, he might be a better option. Both of his starts against the Rays went very well for four or five innings before falling apart. As a group, the Rays have hit .231 against him.

ph_429721Second lefty
If the Yankees weren’t going to carry a second lefty against the left-heavy Twins, why would they carry one against the Rangers or Rays? My guess is that they won’t, but Royce Ring’s numbers are compelling against both teams.

No one on either the Rays or the Rangers has ever gotten a hit off him. Six different Rays are a total of 0-for-5 with a walk and two strikeouts. All of those plate appearances came this year. The two strikeouts were both lefties who have done damage to the Yankees this season: Dan Johnson and Matt Joyce. The Rangers sample size is even larger. Six different Rangers are a combined 0-for-8 with a walk and a strikeout. The walk was to a righty. Josh Hamilton and David Murphy are a combined 0-for-3. Also in Ring’s favor: Neither Chad Gaudin nor Sergio Mitre has particularly good numbers against either team.

ph_456488Pinch runner
There’s been at least one stolen base in each of the first four games of the Rays-Rangers series. Rangers backup catcher Matt Treanor threw out roughly 28 percent of base-runners this season, but every other catcher involved — Bengie Molina, Kelly Shoppach and John Jaso — was at 23 percent or lower. Shoppach threw out 17 percent, which is down near Jorge Posada territory.

As a team, the Twins ranked fourth in the American League at throwing out base runners (more than 31 percent). The Rangers were third from the bottom. The Rays were ninth overall, but would have been much lower if not for Dioner Navarro who didn’t make their first-round playoff roster. Stolen bases could be a real weakness for these teams, but the Yankees left their best pinch-running base-stealer — Eduardo Nunez — off the roster for the division series. Greg Golson and Ramiro Pena can run, but Nunez would be the Yankees best bet if they wanted a new set of legs for Posada or Nick Swisher or Mark Teixeira late in a game.

 
 

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130 Responses to “Considering roster changes for the next round”

  1. upstate kate October 12th, 2010 at 9:07 am

    Interesting article Randy, and nice to see you here.

    The Twins need an ace, that would help them tremendously. I also think while the Yankees play to win, the Twins try to not lose.
    Watching some of the Reds/Phillies and Braves/Giants game makes me appreciate the Yankees confidence. Lack of confidence leads to costly errors.
    OK the end of my armchair analysis!

  2. Niblick October 12th, 2010 at 9:18 am

    The comment about long reliever makes no sense whatsoever. AJ was on the roster for the ALDS; he’s going to be on the roster for the ALCS and, apparently, he will be used to start at least one game in the ALCS. Why on earth does that impact the number of roster slots available for long relievers? Answer: it doesn’t. If anything, the good possibility that AJ flames out in early innings would lead one to conclude that an extra long man would be needed.

  3. Chuck58 October 12th, 2010 at 9:23 am

    For the ALDS, AJ was on the roster but not in the rotation – he was a long reliever by default. For the ALCS, he is back in the rotation – therefore the roster is automatically short a long man because of that.

  4. LGY October 12th, 2010 at 9:31 am

    Cliff Lee, Bill Hall, Russell Branyan. You’re 2011 FA acquisitions.

  5. Erica in NY October 12th, 2010 at 9:33 am

    3 Days, 10 Hours, and 27 Minutes until Game 1 of the ALCS :grin:

    (Note: I am going by the 8pm start time on the TBS website)

  6. LGY October 12th, 2010 at 9:43 am

    *Your* stupid phone.

    I guess you are could work as well though ;)

  7. BoJo October 12th, 2010 at 9:43 am

    Nice analysis Chad.

  8. Erica in NY October 12th, 2010 at 9:45 am

    Don’t think I love Russell Branyon

    He has power, but I think it only comes out against the Yankees

  9. upstate kate October 12th, 2010 at 9:46 am

    LGY
    are you saying you want Bill Hall? and if so,why?

  10. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 9:46 am

    The fact that Ring has faced 11 different players with a total of 13 ABs (and 15 PAs) is statistically irrelevant. Hell, two walks allowed per 15 plate appearances is not good for a one out specialist. Remember this is a sport where the VERY BEST fail to get a hit 65% of the time and strange things happen in small samples all the time. Royce Ring has a career 5.29 ERA for a reason, he’s a bad pitcher. He has allowed .355 OBP to left handers in his career for a reason, he’s a bad pitcher. His last year in the majors he had an 8.46 ERA for a reason, he’s a bad pitcher. Until this September he hadn’t pitcher in a Major League game in over 25 months for a reason, he’s a bad pitcher.

    If there’s a scenario where Royce Ring pitches even a single meaningful post-season at bat, then the Yankees have done a piss poor job assembling a bullpen. I’d MUCH rather see Chamberlain, Robertson or Wood face a lefty than Ring any day of the week for one simple reason: they are significantly better pitchers.

  11. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 9:49 am

    “Damon, Matsui – Remember them?”

    Al, Yankees were clearly somewhat ambivalent about them. They might have stayed had the players not sought another situation elsewhere in a tough market, but the point is the Yankees didn’t prioritize signing them and were apparently fine with them leaving, and seemingly correctly so.

    My comment was made to Betsy in context to Hughes. If Hughes emerges into a frontline starter, I have no concern about him leaving the Yankees his first run as a free agent.

    If the Yankees prioritize keeping him, they’ll get him to stay.

  12. BIG AL October 12th, 2010 at 9:51 am

    stuckey99 -

    Agreed.

  13. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 9:53 am

    Moseley stinks. Pass. Although as long as the Gaudin person isn’t on the roster, it won’t totally suck.

    I wouldn’t tempt Girardi to overmanage with Nunez on the roster.

  14. BoJo October 12th, 2010 at 9:56 am

    Trisha–

    Giants in 6–

    I agree with you.

  15. BoJo October 12th, 2010 at 9:56 am

    Can’t wait to see some of the pitching duels.

  16. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 9:56 am

    @upstate kate: The Twins ace is Francisco Liriano. Here are some (of the many) categories he was better than C.C. Sabathia in:
    K/9: 9.44 vs. 7.46
    BB/9: 2.72 vs. 2.80
    FIP: 2.66 vs. 3.54
    xFIP: 3.06 vs. 3.78
    fWAR: 6.0 vs. 5.1

    Where was was Sabathia better?
    Three luck based stats: BABIP, Team Run Support and Win-Loss –> Funny how the first two stats lead to the 3rd.

    Liriano, arguably, had a better year than Sabathia and is a more valuable asset into the future, especially considering he’s 3 years younger than Carston Charles.

  17. LGY October 12th, 2010 at 10:00 am

    upstate kate,

    I want Bill Hall as a utility infielder and occasional RH OF. I think the Yankees need a backup IF who can actually hit and I believe it will be beneficial to have him at times vs really tough lefties to balance out Gardy/Grandy.

    Erica,

    -.254 AVG, .874 OPS vs RHP this year (19 HR in 276 AB)
    -.264 AVG, .914 OPS vs RHP from 2007-2009.

    Part time DH only vs RHP and bench player. I think his salary will allow the Yankees to be flexible and play him according to how much Jorge and others need to DH and how well Montero hits.

  18. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 10:00 am

    LGY

    “Cliff Lee, Bill Hall, Russell Branyan. You’re 2011 FA acquisitions.”

    The problem with a top heavy lineup is that expensive bench options become tough.

    Hall made $8.5m. I don’t think the Yankees could afford $4m.

    Branyan is more doable.

  19. BIG AL October 12th, 2010 at 10:02 am

    BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 9:56 am
    Liriano, arguably, had a better year than Sabathia and is a more valuable asset into the future, especially considering he’s 3 years younger than Carston Charles.

    ********************************************
    CC pitches in a very tough AL East, while Liriano pitches in a much weaker AL Central, that’s a huge difference.

    You are not comparing apples to apples, your stats mean nothing in this regard.

  20. LGY October 12th, 2010 at 10:03 am

    Rich,

    I agree Hall is tricky. He made 8.5 million this year like you said but I don’t think any team would go near that amount. I really have no clue about much Hall will be offered so I agree I don’t know how realistic it is.

  21. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 10:04 am

    If you want to factor in salary, then sure, you could make the case Liriano is the better fit for the Twins than Sabathia. But in Yankee context, if anyone were willing to trade Liriano for Sabathia straight-up, they should cease operating heavy machinery presently.

  22. LGY October 12th, 2010 at 10:04 am

    Keep in mind I wouldn’t resign Thames and put that money towards Branyan.

  23. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 10:04 am

    All of the above mentioned players are mediocre roll players at best and their inclusion on the roster (or not) shouldn’t be significant at all. On the merits:

    - Aside from him being a below average pitcher, if you didn’t add Ring to the roster to face the Twins, a predominantly left-handed hitting team, why would you do so now? You wouldn’t.

    - All of the long men are crap shoots. No one can predict one being better than another on any given day. Moseley, Mitre, Nova, are all interchangeable to me.

    - I’ll take Peña’s experience and Golson’s defense and hope neither plays much.

  24. blake October 12th, 2010 at 10:05 am

    If you want to believe Liriano is better than Sabathia at this point in their careers, then be my guest…but you’d be wrong.

  25. Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 10:05 am

    “But I don’t think a free agent has EVER left the Yankees by their own choice.”

    Saw this in the last thread.. Andy?

  26. CountryClub October 12th, 2010 at 10:08 am

    You have to take durability into account when you compare pitchers of CC and Liriano’s ilk. One guy throws 240 innings every yr, the other guy has never even thrown 195.

  27. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:09 am

    I actually agree that Bill Hall would be a nice fit, but I’m more inclined to see how Nunez and Russo do in that sort of role next year. Each has shown offensive potential in the minors and had some Pinstriped success. And, as Cashman has noted, players like Hall are disinclined to sign with the Yankees because never rarely off the bench is terrible for a player’s career. Sure there are occasional exceptions like Thames who increased his value as a Yankee sub, but the past is littered with the Randy Winns, Todd Zeiles, Morgan Ensbergs, Bubba Trammells, Tony Womacks and Kenny Loftons – solid major leaguers that wasted away and damaged their careers on the Yankee bench.

    Considering the age of most of our line-up, clogging up the DH spot with a guy like Branyan when Posada and Montero should be platooning between DH and C seems like a poor idea. He’s terrible defensively and offers no utility on a roster that will likely need to carry 3 catchers – even with DH days Posada can’t play every single day if we want to maintain his health. Plus Jeter, Rodriguez, etc, are not getting younger and can all make good use of the occasional DH day next season.

  28. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 10:11 am

    ERA+

    CC: 134
    Liriano: 115

    IP

    CC: 237.2
    Liriano: 191.2

  29. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 10:12 am

    “Saw this in the last thread.. Andy?”

    Maybe, but he said the RS offered $52m for four years and he wanted the Yankees to match. They declined.

  30. LGY October 12th, 2010 at 10:14 am

    “Considering the age of most of our line-up, clogging up the DH spot with a guy like Branyan when Posada and Montero should be platooning between DH and C seems like a poor idea.”

    ————————————

    How does he clog up the DH spot when at best he is a platoon DH?

    I am not saying I want Branyan as a full time DH. I want him basically in Thames’ role this year but from the other side of the plate, because I think Thames would be redundant next year with Montero knocking at the door.

    If Montero starts mashing from both sides of the plate, then great. You move Branyan to the bench. If not, you have some nice insurance vs RHP. He only made $1.5 million this year so his salary shouldn’t dictate playing time.

  31. SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 10:18 am

    The only thing Liriano has in common is they are both LH.

    Liriano isn’t in the same league as CC as a pitcher.

    This is a case where playing with stats is a foolish endeavor.

    One guy is an innings eating horse who pitches, and wins, in the AL East.

    The other guy is an oft injured guy, with good, not great stuff, who pitches in the offensively challenged AL Central.

    Younger isn’t always better. Something folks constantly beating the “get younger” drum don’t get.

    CC vs. Liriano is yet another example of that.

  32. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:19 am

    Big Al,

    Liriano faced more difficult offensive opponents during the season in total than Sabathia faced. Remember, C.C. doesn’t have to face the best offense in baseball, the Yankees, while pitching in the AL East. Liriano’s opponent’s OPS: .734 (.331 OBP, .404 SLG); Sabathia’s opponent’s OPS: .719 (.324 OBP, .395 SLG).

  33. Cashmoney October 12th, 2010 at 10:20 am

    Good Morning everyone …

  34. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:22 am

    Rich in NJ: ERA+ is the same stat as ERA normalized to 100 being league average. It is useful as a historical comparison tool, but in the scope of one season it says nothing that isn’t already said by ERA. It still doesn’t address the flaws in ERA that don’t account for quality defense and luck on batted balls.

  35. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 10:24 am

    I like the imaginary General Manager test. Is there a GM that would take Liriano over Sabathia? Next question – Scutaro and Jeter.

  36. Cashmoney October 12th, 2010 at 10:24 am

    LGY October 12th, 2010 at 9:31 am
    Cliff Lee, Bill Hall, Russell Branyan. You’re 2011 FA acquisitions.
    ———————–
    I like all the above. Hall is a defensive butcher though. I also like Felipe Lopez from ST Louis whom Boston got off the waiver at the end season. Versatile infielder with a little pop and an ability to hit for decent average. Instant upgrade over Pena.

  37. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 10:27 am

    BWOzar

    It’s park adjusted.

  38. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:32 am

    West Coast Yankee Fan: Considering contracts and age, I think every GM in baseball would take Liriano. #1 Sabathia is making 23 million each of the next 5 years, has an opt out after next year and has a terrible body for the long term. There are, of course, some players that stay healthy with a bad body, but it’s less likely. #2 Liriano is only going to arbitration for the second this year, meaning he’s under team control for what is likely to be around 12-13 million total for the next two seasons. He’s also 3 years younger and better than Sabathia this year in nearly every advanced pitching metric.

  39. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 10:32 am

    Here is my utterly pointless, 3 days until real baseball, attempt at the 2011 opening day roster.

    1 – Sabathia
    2 – Lee
    3 – Hughes
    4 – Pettitte
    5 – Burnett

    6 – Rivera
    7 – Chamberlain
    8 – Robertson
    9 – Logan
    10 – Aceves
    11 – Marte (or second lefty, Ring?)
    12 – Mitre/Nova? (long-man, spot starter)

    13 – Jeter
    14 – Granderson
    15 – Cano
    16 – Rodriquez
    17 – Teixeira
    18 – Swisher
    19 – Posada DH/C
    20 – Montero C/DH
    21 – Gardner

    22 – Nunez
    23 – Cervelli (allows Yanks to play Montero/Posada at same time)
    24 – Thames/Kearns (Kearns is better option defensively)
    25 – lefty bat, back-up outfielder (Curtis?)

  40. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:33 am

    Rich in NJ – good call, you’re right.

  41. Cashmoney October 12th, 2010 at 10:43 am

    Stuckey, I would sign Benoit to add to that mix.

  42. pat October 12th, 2010 at 10:44 am

    Lots of teams have given their fans nothing to do but look at 2011.

    The Yankees aren’t one of those teams.

  43. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 10:46 am

    # BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:32 am

    West Coast Yankee Fan: Considering contracts and age, I think every GM in baseball would take Liriano. #1 Sabathia is making 23 million each of the next 5 years, has an opt out after next year and has a terrible body for the long term. There are, of course, some players that stay healthy with a bad body, but it’s less likely. #2 Liriano is only going to arbitration for the second this year, meaning he’s under team control for what is likely to be around 12-13 million total for the next two seasons. He’s also 3 years younger and better than Sabathia this year in nearly every advanced pitching metric.

    ******************

    No one would take Liriano over Sabathia. He has not won a thing and is often injured. Your post just goes to show that almost anyone can construct a rhetorical argument whether it makes any sense or not. What you put forth about body type is totally speculative and with no medical basis in fact whatsoever as it doesn’t and cannot know what a player’s genetic predisposition is. Sabathia is 6’7. David Wells pitched for 21 years at 6’1. Sabathia also has said clearly he is not opting out, he loves playing in New York. As far as advanced pitching metrics is concerned – I would recommend you spend more time watching games and less time reading numbers on a computer. I am sure 95% of all fans and baseball professionals would not agree with you.

  44. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:46 am

    I’ll say this in the Liriano vs. Sabathia debate.

    I love Sabathia, I think he’s a fantastic pitcher and could be on his way to a Hall of Fame career (if he stays healthy, etc). I love rooting for Sabathia and it helps that he seems like a genuinely good guy in real life. The fact that I think Liriano likely had a better year than Sabathia is a controversial thing to say in a place full of mostly old school-style Yankee fans. I don’t understand why people seem to take it personally – the Yankees made it further than the Twins because the TEAM is better. I don’t think recognizing that a lot of the ways to measure pitchers in baseball today (the ways used by most of the league’s best general managers, like Friedman, Hoyer, Epstein, Cashman, Daniels, etc) see Liriano as having had a better year than C.C. in any was mutes or dampens the success of the Yankees and my overall appreciation of Sabathia.

    I just believe that we shouldn’t talk about baseball players in cliches when there are facts available. The perfect example of this is saying Sabathia pitches in the tougher AL East and thus his numbers ‘mean’ more. Well it took me 30 seconds to look up that Liriano faced a more difficult set of opponents this year than Sabathia did (by batting average, OBP and slugging). Hernandez is going to win the Cy Young Award this year (I think) because voters are becoming more savvy to the fact that we no longer need to speak in cliches and, because of the internet, can very easily speak in facts.

  45. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 10:54 am

    “The fact that I think Liriano likely had a better year than Sabathia is a controversial thing to say in a place full of mostly old school-style Yankee fans. I don’t understand why people seem to take it personally ”

    No one is as far as I can tell. And who had the better year is certainly arguable.

    But I don’t see anyone really pushing back on that. Where I see push-back is the notion Liriano is the more desirable pitcher moving forward.

    Your isolated stats about the 2010 season really doesn’t address THAT premise well at all.

    That’s just a genuine reaction. There is no controversy. It’s not personal. You just happen to be misguided on merit.

  46. SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 10:55 am

    You want to talk “facts” and then you say “every GM in baseball would take Liriano over Sabathia”.

    That’s your opinion. That’s not a fact.

    I know 16 GM’s in the game. Not a single one of them would take Liriano over Sabathia.

    So, your “fact” is incorrect. Try again.

  47. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 10:55 am

    “Lots of teams have given their fans nothing to do but look at 2011.”

    What would YOU like to talk about in regards to 2010 Pat?

  48. Giuseppe Franco October 12th, 2010 at 10:56 am

    Voters haven’t become that savvy yet.

    Getting 21 wins and getting to the postseason does still mean something to them.

    A team’s winning percentage is not the be all end all in making comparisons between Liriano’s and Sabathia’s opponents.

    The Twins finished with a better regular season record than the Yanks did but nobody is going to argue that the Twins have the better team.

    Four good teams in the AL East beat up on each other, which makes a significant difference in their overall record.

    There was no real dogfight of that caliber in any other division. The stats don’t account for that.

  49. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:58 am

    West Coast Yankee Fan: we’ll agree to disagree on this. For starters I watched roughly 145 Yankee regular season games this year, as many spring training games as I could and all the playoff games so far. No need to make personal attacks about ‘getting out from behind a computer.’ If 95% of baseball fans agreed with you, then everyone would think Sabathia should win the Cy Young which is simply not the case. Hernandez is the favorite for the award and he reflects that 95% number is more than a little off.

    There is something called a budget for most teams in baseball. C.C. is going to cost $23 mil next year, Liriano is going to cost about $5 mil. Dollars-to-production there is no debate about who is better. In a vacuum, with salary as no object, for one year, would teams take Sabathia? Absolutely. But things don’t operate that way. We have to look at the big picture. \

    Notice, also, on the body thing, I said there are exceptions. But there are many big guys (Colon, Sexson, Mo Vaughn, Greg Vaughn, Hafner, etc, just in recent years) that declined precipitously in their 30s.

  50. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:00 am

    BWozar – It’s not a personal thing you have every right to your opinion. But, Hernandez is going to win the Cy Young award this year if he does and I think he will for one simple reason. He was the best pitcher in the AL. It has nothing to do with cliches and everything to do with performance. A reliance on metrics to the extreme is a mistake in my opinion. Anyone who watches the game seriously can see that Sabathia is a better pitcher than Liriano. I don’t think anyone needed a computer or metrics to know that Ruth, Gehrig and DiMaggio were the best players in the game in their positions and roles. All you needed was to be a fan of the game and to have eyes.

    By the way – Babe Ruth played for 22 years with a body that was as non-athletic as one could find.

  51. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:00 am

    “I know 16 GM’s in the game. Not a single one of them would take Liriano over Sabathia. ”

    Since CC costs $24MM, and Liriano $1.6MM, I very much doubt the above statement.

  52. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:02 am

    The discussion was Liriano and Sabathis – not Sabathia and Hernandez.

  53. SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 11:03 am

    Also, one of the problems with deciding who faced “tougher” lineups is when you play teams.

    For example, playing the Orioles in August and September and the Tigers in May, when they were playing well, is different than playing teams when they are scuffling.

    Overall, when you have a guy pitching almost 50 more innings in a tougher division, in a non-pitchers park, with the track record Sabathia posseses, saying every GM would take Liriano over him is just a foolish, as well as incorrect, statement.

  54. 108 stitches October 12th, 2010 at 11:03 am

    If Cashman doesn’t pick up the option of Kerry Wood then opt for Joaquin Benoit.

  55. RS October 12th, 2010 at 11:04 am

    Saying Liriano is a better pitcher than Sabathia, and GM’s would take Liriano over Sabathia because of salary are two completely different statements…

  56. Bret The Hitman October 12th, 2010 at 11:04 am

    CC has really sound mechanics.

    I like the David Wells comp.

    I think CC will hold up throughout his contract.

  57. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:05 am

    Giuseppe Franco: Nowhere did I compare opponent’s winning percentage – I compared the quality of the hitters faced. The numbers (BA/OBP/SLG) are those of the total number of batters faced by Sabathia and Liriano this year.

    Stuckey99: Fair point, it’s the condescending crap about getting out from behind a computer and watching the games (when I watch nearly every Yankee game in a season) that annoys me. And as I mentioned in my last response, contracts and age matter a LOT in today’s game and to most new school general managers. Basically every team in baseball can afford Liriano next year, VERY few can afford Sabathia’s $23 million (beyond NY who? BOS, LAA, CHW, TEX, DET, beyond that…? Maybe you could make a case for a few others but the bulk can’t or won’t) – that HAS to be a consideration when evaluating what player a team would pick.

  58. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 11:05 am

    “In a vacuum, with salary as no object, for one year, would teams take Sabathia? Absolutely. But things don’t operate that way. We have to look at the big picture.

    Notice, also, on the body thing, I said there are exceptions. But there are many big guys (Colon, Sexson, Mo Vaughn, Greg Vaughn, Hafner, etc, just in recent years) that declined precipitously in their 30s.”

    So taking potential health into a “big picture” account, are you arguing 29 other GMs are going to completely discount Liriano’s 2008-2009 seasons in a long-term assessment of him?

  59. SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 11:05 am

    It has nothing to do with money Wave.

    It has to do with the respective talents of the player.

    I’m not making the money argument. I’m making the player v. player argument.

    Under that analysis, there isn’t a single GM who would take Liriano over Sabathia.

  60. Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 11:05 am

    Erica – With the way things are going on the thread right now, I need a countdown update and FAST!!

    Baseball just cannot come soon enough..

  61. Howe Farr October 12th, 2010 at 11:06 am

    I think its time for baseball falls to stop being so angry towards non-traditional metrics. If people were to embrace it, it will help you have a clearer picture of the game, and help you enjoy the game a different way.
    Yes, its okay to say x player has guts and y player is a true yankees, but when it comes to numbers and the bottom line, we are lucky enough to live in an era where a vast number of information is at our fingerprints.
    Instead of throwing silly arguments like “put the computer down” take a couple of minutes in your day to look up new information that will help you understand the game better.

  62. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:07 am

    SJ44: Those stats I used about opponent OPS are based not on the team line-ups faced but on the ACTUAL players faced by Sabathia and Liriano.

  63. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:07 am

    Well said, Howe Farr

  64. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 11:09 am

    “And as I mentioned in my last response, contracts and age matter a LOT in today’s game and to most new school general managers. Basically every team in baseball can afford Liriano next year, VERY few can afford Sabathia’s $23 million (beyond NY who? BOS, LAA, CHW, TEX, DET, beyond that…? Maybe you could make a case for a few others but the bulk can’t or won’t) – that HAS to be a consideration when evaluating what player a team would pick.”

    Certainly, but I’ll remind you what you ACTUALLY posted.

    “Considering contracts and age, I think every GM in baseball would take Liriano. #1″

    I believe it’s the “every” that is problem area…

  65. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:10 am

    I think you were making the case for Liriano over Sabathia based primarily on performance and not money. Of course money would be a factor. You can’t compare Kansas City with the Yankees. Most people would say a Mercedes is a better car than a Kia, but many couldn’t afford the Mercedes. That does not make the Kia a better car. I think you need to separate the two – cost and performance for discussions sake.

  66. Howe Farr October 12th, 2010 at 11:11 am

    if sabathia is a mercedes, liriano is not a kia

  67. 108 stitches October 12th, 2010 at 11:12 am

    For ALCS roster decisions, I’d go with Nunez over Kearns. Golson is still the backup OF and Nunez has speed and can replace either Alex or Derek if there’s a blowout game to give either a little rest.

  68. Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 11:15 am

    Sabathia is a Bentley and Liriano is an Audi?

  69. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:16 am

    Howe Farr – Good points, there is no question that progress and technology help us all to have more enjoyable lives. I think it’s a question of balance.

    But there is a reason ball clubs spend so much money on scouting. Real live people getting on planes, trains and automobiles and going to see players in person in out of the way places all over the globe. Again it’s balance I don’t think the two are mutually exclusive.

  70. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:17 am

    SJ44: To leave the money out of it is nonsense.

    Stuckey99: Fair point about Liriano’s arm troubles. Let’s also remember that Liriano’s ’06 was probably the best year either of them have ever had (2.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 12-3 – for those that like W-L). They’re both GREAT pitchers, and there is certainly a case to be made for either. I just think those extra 3 years and the fact fact that Liriano will make about half as much in the next two seasons as Sabathia will make next year swings it.

  71. CountryClub October 12th, 2010 at 11:18 am

    I’m a guy who falls in the middle of the metrics vs “eye” test. I see the merit in both methods and I think teams like the yanks, sox, etc… do as well. That being said, anyone who would take Liriano over CC for what the Yanks needs are, is off base.

    The pitchers are very close in pure ability. Maybe Liriano has better pure stuff. But the Yanks need a top of the rotation guy that is going to throw 225+ inning every year. I don’t know if Liriano is going to ever be that type of pitcher (nothing in his past shows us he will).

  72. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:20 am

    Stuckey99: I do stand by the every, we’re getting side-tracked between the vacuum argument and the real contract argument. Every team would rather have Liriano at 4-5 mil next year and an extra 18-19 to spend on other players than Sabathia at 23 mil with a potential opt-out looming.

    And regardless of what he says about not opting out or not angling for an extension today, let’s see how next year goes. A-Rod said similar stuff once upon a time. I also don’t begrudge him if he does opt-out or try to renegotiate, he earned the right to do that with his performance.

  73. CountryClub October 12th, 2010 at 11:20 am

    BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:17 am
    SJ44: To leave the money out of it is nonsense.

    Stuckey99: Fair point about Liriano’s arm troubles. Let’s also remember that Liriano’s ‘06 was probably the best year either of them have ever had (2.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 12-3 – for those that like W-L).

    ———————–

    Only 121 innings.

  74. CountryClub October 12th, 2010 at 11:22 am

    BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:20 am
    Stuckey99: I do stand by the every, we’re getting side-tracked between the vacuum argument and the real contract argument. Every team would rather have Liriano at 4-5 mil next year and an extra 18-19 to spend on other players than Sabathia at 23 mil with a potential opt-out looming.

    ——————-

    I bet you the Yankees disagree.

  75. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 11:24 am

    Final word for me on Liriano/Sabathia.

    I believe in the value of advanced metrics (just ask Randy and GreenBeret7). I think they are a valuable tool than can and should be utilized astutely and in context by baseball organization and that some fans are slow to party on them.

    But I ALSO believe in things that go beyond pure metrics. Intangibles, if you will.

    Sabathia isn’t just an “ace”, he’s a “horse”, his value goes far beyond the 33 games he pitches in per year.

    He makes his starts every 5th day, gives length in most of them, and in a calming, solidifying presence in a rotation. He makes his team and pitching staff better on days he does not pitch.

    He is a clubhouse leader and now 3 years in a row has put himself in a leadership role to take his team to and through the postseason.

    I don’t see those qualities from Liriano … not yet anyway.

    I think he’s a nice pitcher, when healthy, and his metrics might suggest them while he was on the mound in the 2010 regular season, his stuff was a litter better than Sabathia’s this year.

    But that doesn’t come CLOSE to fully measuring who is the more valuable player.

    You want to argue Liriano’s salary makes him the more obvious choice for team’s other than the biggest budget teams? Fair enough, that’s debatable for sure.

    But what I don’t think is debatable is if given the choice, which GM and/or manager would rather have on the mound in a game their team needed to win.

  76. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:24 am

    And to CountryClub (and others) I agree that the ability to consistently provide 220+ innings is extremely valuable – but that becomes more difficult as a pitcher gets into his 30s. Non-steroid division there aren’t a whole lot of pitchers in recent years that have been able to maintain that sort of work load (and the quality of those innings) into the mid and late 30s. I think it’s more reasonable to expect that Sabathia’s inning load will decrease slightly in future years as age simply makes injuries (serious or minor) more likely.

  77. Chambliss October 12th, 2010 at 11:25 am

    Liriano is a nice pitcher, but he is not in the same league as CC. CC is an ace who is capable of putting a team on his shoulders for weeks at a time. Liriano is good, but he does not rise to the level of Sabathia in terms of the overall package.

  78. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:28 am

    Interesting conversation – one thing metrics does not and cannot take into account are individual big game performances that may not be measured statistically. How can metrics quantify and qualify the intangibles like demeanor and guts. Against Minnesota Sabathia didn’t have his best stuff but his grit and determination made him an ace that day.

  79. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 11:28 am

    I think it comes down to their respective bodies of work.

    CC has been an elite starter for the last five consecutive seasons.

    Liriano has been a quasi-elite starter for…wait for it…one consecutive season.

  80. AldotheApache October 12th, 2010 at 11:32 am

    Couldn’t care less about the CC vs Liriano debate. CC is the ace on the NY Yankees and Liriano’s home watching – that’s all I care about.

    But anybody who thinks pitching in the AL East doesn’t mean anything? An AL East team has been in 10 out of the last 14 World Series.

  81. Tom in N.J. October 12th, 2010 at 11:32 am

    The Hard Ball times did a study on Fat pitchers. Here’s some of what they concluded:

    “So let’s recap what we’ve learned. One, fat pitchers generally perform better than any other group and are the most likely to stick in the major leagues for a long time. Two, extreme pitchers, other than thin ones, tend to have much higher strikeout rates than average, and allow fewer runs. And three, thin pitchers are much less likely to have long careers than any other group, and those that do stay around are much more likely to end up in relief.”

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....er-part-5/

  82. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 11:32 am

    “I do stand by the every, we’re getting side-tracked between the vacuum argument and the real contract argument. Every team would rather have Liriano at 4-5 mil next year and an extra 18-19 to spend on other players than Sabathia at 23 mil with a potential opt-out looming.”

    Argggh, you’re making me go back on my word.

    I believe this is where you are most misguided. You’re suggesting of the Twins called and offered Liriano for Sabathia in a trade straight up, Brian Cashman would do the deal, a notion I find ridiculous, and this is coming from the guy driving the “Brett Gardner’s value makes Carl Crawford unnecessary” bus.

    Sabathia has been worth every penny he’s been paid, his worth goes well beyond his FIP (or whatever the hell it’s called) and that Brian Cashman and more than a few other GM’s would not be making the same mistake you are.

  83. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:34 am

    “Under that analysis, there isn’t a single GM who would take Liriano over Sabathia.”

    You claimed to have talked to GMs who gave you the inside scoop on that. No GM would leave out the money. If you think CC is better than Liriano, fine. So do I. But leave the GMs out of it.

  84. CountryClub October 12th, 2010 at 11:35 am

    And to CountryClub (and others) I agree that the ability to consistently provide 220+ innings is extremely valuable – but that becomes more difficult as a pitcher gets into his 30s. Non-steroid division there aren’t a whole lot of pitchers in recent years that have been able to maintain that sort of work load (and the quality of those innings) into the mid and late 30s.

    —————-

    He’ll be 31 next yr, not 35.

  85. Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 11:36 am

    “How can metrics quantify and qualify the intangibles like demeanor and guts.”

    Its funny you even say this because I believe in one of the last games the announcers had an entire conversation about how what mostly separates AAA players and Major Leaguers is the ability to compartmentalize.

  86. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:38 am

    Baseball is a business there is no question and different teams have different financial appetites. Accordingly, I think it would be fair to say that some teams/GM’s would choose Liariano over Sabathia for financial reasons because they had no choice. But, evaluating on ability and performance, if they could afford Sabathia, I do not believe anyone would choose Liriano.

  87. Erica in NY October 12th, 2010 at 11:39 am

    3 Days, 8 Hours, and 21 Minutes until Game 1 of the ALCS :grin:

    (Note: I am going by the 8pm start time on the TBS website)

    Sorry for my delay Shame Spencer- I was working hard

  88. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:39 am

    Stuckey99: Fair point on the intangible stuff. While I’m more a number guy, I certainly believe there is something to leadership and helping young players develop, etc. While I’m less inclined to believe the sort of cliches about players being ‘more confident’ with a certain pitcher on the mound, I do believe Sabathia’s ability to help save wear and tear on a bullpen and perhaps help someone like Boone Logan or Ivan Nova or whoever be a better pitcher is incredibly useful (if difficult or impossible to quantify). I just tend to believe that every player needs to be evaluated based on the money they make as well, I think even Brian Cashman would rather have an extra 18-19 million next year. Maybe Hank and Hal put a budget on the team? Maybe, financially, that’s the difference between Sabathia and Nova in the rotation or Liriano and Lee in 2011 – who knows?

    Overall, what’s nice about being a Yankee fan is that, in general, they don’t have a budget. We’ll probably get Lee and the Steinbrenners probably won’t suddenly find themselves spending conservatively – I mean what’s another 20+ million…? But no other team, including Boston, can do that. Boston won’t seriously be in the hunt for Lee because of the deal they gave Lackey. Hindsight being 20/20, they’d surely have punted that signing and saved for this year to go after Lee. The Yankees aren’t at all blocked from pursuing Lee by their extremely similar iffy-contract to A.J. Burnett…

    On that last point you make, though, seems strange – you admit that Liriano might well have pitched better, if fewer, innings than C.C. in 2010. I think many GMs and managers would like the guy likely to produce better actual innings…

  89. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:41 am

    I don’t see how advanced stats gives Liriano’s 2010 the nod over CC’s 2010 anyway. Look at different advanced stats – they produce different answers. And even where one is ahead in one stat, it isn’t by much. The stats aren’t precise enough to declare a winner.

  90. SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 11:41 am

    No, I’m not going to leave the GM’s out of it.

    Who the he’ll are you to tell me what to post.

    The discussion wasn’t about, “for the money, which guy would you rather have”.

    It was pitcher v. pitcher discussion and under that discussion, every GM I know would take Sabathia over Liriano.

    In fact, if you want to bring dollars into it, the GM’s I know would ask their owners for more money before making the choice.

    Sorry if my knowing people in the game upsets you wave. You will just have to deal with it.

    Stuckey’s 11:24 post said it all on the subject.

    I’ll leave you to snark on your own.

  91. Cashmoney October 12th, 2010 at 11:43 am

    While I’m less inclined to believe the sort of cliches about players being ‘more confident’ with a certain pitcher on the mound
    ———————————–
    “Your confidence goes up when you have one,” said Damon, who won with Curt Schilling fronting a Red Sox staff in 2004 and with the Yankees led by Sabathia a year ago. “When you are facing one, one at-bat can make the difference between losing and winning the ball game.”
    Facing the ace, Damon says hitters can’t be looking to fill the box score with hits.

  92. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:43 am

    Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 11:36 am

    “How can metrics quantify and qualify the intangibles like demeanor and guts.”

    Its funny you even say this because I believe in one of the last games the announcers had an entire conversation about how what mostly separates AAA players and Major Leaguers is the ability to compartmentalize.

    *************************

    An excellent point, Sabathia’s ability to shut things out and focus seems extraordinary. I think the difference in the development of two home grown Yankee pitchers with great arms and potential, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, speaks to that. Hughes has one of the best mounf demeanor’s for a young starter that I have seen.

  93. Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 11:43 am

    Erica – Its ok!! Someone has to!

    BWOzar – “But no other team, including Boston, can do that.” Be careful not to confuse “can” and “would.”

  94. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:43 am

    “But, evaluating on ability and performance, if they could afford Sabathia, I do not believe anyone would choose Liriano.”

    This makes no sense.

    Would you rather have CC, or Liriano and an extra $22MM player? The answer is absurdly obvious.

    It’s the reason Cashman didn’t trade Hughes for Santana.

  95. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:43 am

    …sp mound

  96. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 11:44 am

    “Youth” is another quality far over-emphasized by the more zealous stats folks.

    Yes, totally get why Felix Hernandez gives everyone wood. Sign me up as a “Felix Hernandez can play on my team” guy.

    But the early 30′s for elite pitchers are not only NOT a death sentence, they’re the years you WANT, when still-top-notch stuff combines with gained experience and acquired character to make the sort of aces that go beyond the stat sheet and play well in October.

    For teams whose plan is to play in late October, 3 years is barely a consideration. Yes, there ARE some organizations that are perpetually planning on all their youth to come together 3 years from NOW where they’ll have a 2 year window to compete before having to break it up, and Liriano would likely be the preferred option for them, but that isn’t all teams.

    For teams who plan to compete most years, 3 years is a non-issue.

  97. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 11:44 am

    “I think many GMs and managers would like the guy likely to produce better actual innings…”

    It depends on the composition of the rest of the staff. Given the tenuousness of AJ, Vazquez, Pettitte’s injury, and Hughes’s innings cap, they needed what CC gave them.

    Since so many contingencies are unforeseeable, why wouldn’t teams want the insurance that CC offers?

  98. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:45 am

    “Sorry if my knowing people in the game upsets you wave. You will just have to deal with it. ”

    Doesn’t upsety me a bit, SJ.

    But using it in an absurd, false way to try to win a dumb argument does irritate me some.

  99. SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 11:46 am

    I could care less what irritates you.

  100. Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 11:47 am

    And just to be fair to BWOzar, what he said was “Considering contracts and age, I think every GM in baseball would take Liriano.”

    He was absolutely taking into account salary, not just pitcher vs. pitcher. I still disagree with him, but I figured it was worth pointing out.

  101. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:47 am

    “I could care less what irritates you.”

    SJ44-

    Clearly you do, but you’ll have to deal with it.

  102. Cashmoney October 12th, 2010 at 11:50 am

    Considering contracts and age, I think some GM in baseball would take Liriano.

    It’s much easier if we don’t deal in absolute…

  103. BIG AL October 12th, 2010 at 11:51 am

    BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 10:32 am
    ******************************************

    Sure glad you’re not making GM decisions for the Yankees.

    Can’t believe any rational fan would ever take Liriano over CC.

    Don’t bring salary into the mix, that does not pit player against player, as to who’s the best pitcher.

    By the way, ask the Twins whom they’d rather have pitching for them, a guy that wins, eats up innings, stays healthy and has proven himself in high pressure situations year after year.

    CC is the guy that put the Brewers on his back and carried them into the playoffs.

    To date, Liriano has not proven himself to be an ace, far from it.

  104. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:52 am

    Hahaha, truth be told this has been kind of a fun argument. I’ll try to make this my last point – somehow this has careened wildly away from that first comment I made about Royce Ring being a terrible major league pitcher who should not see the postseason roster. I should say that for next season I agree with everyone saying they’d rather have C.C. than Liriano on the Yankees (because for all intents and purposes the Yankees have no ceiling on their operational budget). I agree that C.C. has been consistently great over the last 5 years or so while Liriano has either been phenomenal or hurt. But I can’t take money out of the equation, so looking at it for all 29 other teams where money is a factor – Liriano’s lower salary and comparable (if not greater) upside make him the wiser choice.

  105. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:53 am

    If money isn’t a factor for the Yanks, why didn’t they do the Hughes for Santana deal?

  106. SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 11:54 am

    Actually, I don’t but, you tend to be delusional on that kind of stuff on here.

  107. upstate kate October 12th, 2010 at 11:56 am

    sorry to have stirred up all this, but my original comment was (IMO of course) the Twins need an ace to be competitive in the playoffs…and it had nothing to do w/ who GMs would prefer based on salary

  108. stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 11:56 am

    “But no other team, including Boston, can do that. Boston won’t seriously be in the hunt for Lee because of the deal they gave Lackey. Hindsight being 20/20, they’d surely have punted that signing and saved for this year to go after Lee. The Yankees aren’t at all blocked from pursuing Lee by their extremely similar iffy-contract to A.J. Burnett…”

    I think Boston just had the foresight to know they weren’t likely going to be in the market for Lee, by Lee’s choice.

    It also illustrates that teams that compete every year aren’t ALWAYS solely looking 2, 3 years ahead. Sometimes immediate needs weighs heavily in such decisions.

    “On that last point you make, though, seems strange – you admit that Liriano might well have pitched better, if fewer, innings than C.C. in 2010. I think many GMs and managers would like the guy likely to produce better actual innings…”

    This is when I need to bring up the term “vacuum” and this is where you’re going off the tracks of your own argument.

    I can’t imagine there is a single GM that evaluated purely on result and not cost, thought Liriano was more valuable than Sabathia this year.

    What you’re suggesting is being a slave to certain stats and assuming transplanting Liriano onto the Yankees in 2010, him having an equal or greater impact than Sabathia did. This is where you’re really and seemingly consistently misguided.

  109. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 11:56 am

    Money is always a factor, but there were other reasons that the Yankees didn’t trade for Santana, e.g., his declining velo and his reluctance to throw his slider.

  110. AldotheApache October 12th, 2010 at 11:57 am

    SJ44, I hope you don’t take this personal, but I’m reminded of that quaint old saying … “Those who say, don’t know. And those who know, don’t say.”

    You may or may not “know 16 GM’s.” Don’t know and don’t really care.

    But when you claim that type of credential as “special” context for your opinion, while at the same time maintaining anonymity … well, it’s simply not fair to any opposing POV, not with all the half-baked loonies running around on blogs.

    Anonymity or credentials … you can’t have it both ways.

    Just sayin.

  111. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 11:58 am

    “Money is always a factor, but there were other reasons that the Yankees didn’t trade for Santana, e.g., his declining velo and his reluctance to throw his slider.”

    Although those were mentioned at the time, I don’t think they were big factors. It’s more retrospective thinking than not.

  112. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 11:59 am

    BWOzar – you’re a knowledgeable baseball fan and have made some compelling arguments. I don’t agree with you however when you say this,

    “For all intents and purposes the Yankees have no ceiling on their operational budget”.

    “Overall, what’s nice about being a Yankee fan is that, in general, they don’t have a budget”.

    The Yankees most definitely do have a budget. If you followed the goings on last winter, it was communicated many times by Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner that they had a budget and would stick to it. And they did.

  113. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 12:01 pm

    Of course the Yanks have a budget ceiling. They are a business. The ceiling is very high and may be a bit squishy, but it is there.

  114. BIG AL October 12th, 2010 at 12:03 pm

    BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 11:52 am
    Hahaha, truth be told this has been kind of a fun argument. I’ll try to make this my last point –
    ************************************************

    I guess the fact you continue to talk out of your A** explains why your do nothing but talk crap.

  115. CR9 October 12th, 2010 at 12:04 pm

    # SJ44 October 12th, 2010 at 11:46 am

    I could care less what irritates you.

    __

    I COULD NOT care less. For the love of CC Sabathia, get it riiiiiiiiight!! :P

  116. Rich in NJ October 12th, 2010 at 12:04 pm

    Wave Your Hat

    I don’t think so, and part of the reason I do is because the injury risk that Santana carried has proven to be real.

    Now, if CC wasn’t likely to be available do I think the Yankees may have pulled the trigger?

    Yes, for the same reason that they decided to sign AJ*.

    They are so intent on winning every year that they often take what I believe are risks that aren’t worth taking.

    *Not that I’m comparing the ability or track record of AJ and Santana.

  117. Erin October 12th, 2010 at 12:05 pm

    YankeesWFAN Moseley Mitre, Chamberlain all pitching in simulated game vs Cervelli, Golson, Pena, Kearns. From here on I will only simulate tweeting.

  118. Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 12:06 pm

    “Actually, I don’t but, you tend to be delusional on that kind of stuff on here.”

    I still see your 11:41 am post, but perhaps I only think I do…

  119. Erin October 12th, 2010 at 12:06 pm

    pcaldera Joba Chamberlain, flipping a baseball on the side, waiting to (finally) hit the Stadium mound in the simulated game. #shadesofspringtraining

  120. BIG AL October 12th, 2010 at 12:06 pm

    CR9 is in the building. Be calm.

  121. Cashmoney October 12th, 2010 at 12:07 pm

    My hero CR!

  122. Erin October 12th, 2010 at 12:08 pm

    New Post: Only the game is simulated

    :arrow:

  123. Stottlemyre68 October 12th, 2010 at 12:09 pm

    The reason CC is more valuable than Liriano is that CC averaged over 7 IP per start, whereas Liriano averaged 6-1/3. Moreover, on many occasions, we’ve seen CC pitch 8 and even 9. That means he pitches straight to the closer, with no need for one or two middle relievers who are prime candidates to mess up, and he gets the benefit of more late-inning comebacks. We saw this in Game 1, where CC admittedly didn’t have his best stuff, but Liriano had great stuff through 5 and then ran out of gas.

    In terms of CC’s body type, does anyone remember Mickey Lolich (one of my favorite Ball 4 episodes was of Bouton heckling Lolich with “hey, one man to a paair of pants out there”)? Gaylord Perry (I can remember his tummy sloshing around as he followed through)? Even David Wells? CC has become a pitcher over the last few years, so I wouldn’t count him out over the long run. He can win without a 95 mph fastball. And, unlike Wells, he isn’t a quitter.

    As to the suggestion of Royce Ring, yes it’s nice to have a second lefty, but at least this season, Ring couldn’t get Sandy Koufax out as a lefty specialist. We’re better off with the better pitchers, and I think you can’t have too many long relievers, who are particularly useful in extra innings games.

  124. SAS October 12th, 2010 at 12:10 pm

    Good morning,

    I don’t care or understand all those complicated numbers and equations. Sabathia is our number1, and he had done his job beyond expectations. If we get Lee, a number 1A, Pettitte, Hughes, and one of the young guys as a number 5, we are doing very well. I forgot AJ.

    Where I think we need improvement is obvious DH/who can possibly play the field and a real EIG. In general, the Yankees need a stronger bench as far a hitting is concerned. I’d like to see a 2nd left handed pitcher, unless Royce Ring can do that job, and for whatever reason the Yankees have not given up on Marte.

    The Yankees have to take care of Jeter and Mo, neither of which will add to the budget in a big way since they both make top money now. Last night the discussion was about arbitration for Hughes and Chamberlain who deservedly will eat into the budget.

  125. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 12:11 pm

    See, Stuckey99, the point about Liriano or Sabathia being better this year is where we disagree (and my logic is fine). As I strongly believe in advanced metrics as MANY general managers do – including many of the best like Epstein, Daniels and Friedman – I believe advanced metrics create an extremely strong case that Liriano had a better and more valuable year than Sabathia despite the difference in innings.

    Any scenario where we plug one player into another and try to predict results falls victim to the fallacy of the predetermined outcome – you can never make good arguments that way. Maybe Mauer stops a wild pitch that Posada doesn’t, maybe J.J. Hardy gets to a ball Jeter doesn’t – it’s too difficult to make those sort of leaps. That’s why I like stats such as FIP, SIERA, SNLVAR and xFIP (among others) that attempt to normalize for the team supporting a pitcher. And in those scenarios Liriano has a damn good case for having had a better year.

  126. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 12:12 pm

    @Wave Your Hat and West Coast Yankee Fan: Sorry if I wasn’t more clear that I was joking about the budget.

  127. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 12:14 pm

    Speaking of budgets, I recall Scott Boras slugging it out a year ago with the owners in the press. Boras of course maintained that the owners were making money hand over fist – while the owners cried poverty, recession, poor economy, poor ticket sales, etc. If one looks at the 2009 Forbes statistics, it looks like Mr. Boras was right.

    In 2009, major league teams managed to earn their highest profits ever as revenues increased by $79 million for a total of $6.6 billion.

    Cry me a river owners.

  128. Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 12:15 pm

    The Yanks didn’t sign Santana because he would cost them money AND prospects. If it was just money, he’d be having surgery on our dime this year.

  129. West Coast Yankee Fan October 12th, 2010 at 12:16 pm

    Cool BWOzar. Didn’t know you were joking, hard to tell on a computer screen sometimes it’s all good.

  130. BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 12:17 pm

    Hey Big Al, sorry for whatever I said that offended you today. The only time I directly addressed one of your posts was to show that Liriano’s opponents batting statistics were better than Sabathia’s. I didn’t take any personal shots at you or attack you so I figure there’s no need to take shots at me – let’s try to keep the discussion mature and civil here.


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